:00:38. > :00:41.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:45. > :00:48.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:49. > :00:54.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:55. > :00:57.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:58. > :01:03.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:04. > :01:06.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:07. > :01:13.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:14. > :01:22.In London, little sign of people changing their minds. MPs from
:01:23. > :01:30.opposing sides give the view from there constituencies.
:01:31. > :01:32.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:33. > :01:34.panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:35. > :01:39.and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:40. > :01:42.For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating
:01:43. > :01:45.guidelines came as something of a shock.
:01:46. > :01:50.The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be
:01:51. > :01:53.given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to
:01:54. > :01:58.The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar
:01:59. > :02:01.will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks.
:02:02. > :02:07.Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking
:02:08. > :02:13.We are going to look after Gibraltar.
:02:14. > :02:17.Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way,
:02:18. > :02:20.because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without
:02:21. > :02:22.the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it
:02:23. > :02:25.very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule
:02:26. > :02:28.and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU
:02:29. > :02:31.that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject
:02:32. > :02:43.Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much
:02:44. > :02:46.ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this
:02:47. > :02:50.negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different
:02:51. > :02:58.points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They
:02:59. > :03:03.will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is
:03:04. > :03:10.doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early
:03:11. > :03:17.example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the
:03:18. > :03:22.dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At
:03:23. > :03:27.certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power
:03:28. > :03:31.than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European
:03:32. > :03:36.Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by
:03:37. > :03:41.laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the
:03:42. > :03:48.EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain?
:03:49. > :03:55.Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I
:03:56. > :04:00.mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By
:04:01. > :04:04.excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an
:04:05. > :04:10.opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is
:04:11. > :04:14.important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite
:04:15. > :04:19.well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours,
:04:20. > :04:25.and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar.
:04:26. > :04:29.For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment
:04:30. > :04:34.or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic
:04:35. > :04:38.illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail,
:04:39. > :04:44.it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper.
:04:45. > :04:49.They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you
:04:50. > :04:53.think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do
:04:54. > :04:58.not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have
:04:59. > :05:00.an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the
:05:01. > :05:08.EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of
:05:09. > :05:12.symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make.
:05:13. > :05:17.You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have
:05:18. > :05:21.your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they
:05:22. > :05:30.went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not!
:05:31. > :05:34.Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is.
:05:35. > :05:39.Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will
:05:40. > :05:46.be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many
:05:47. > :05:51.other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process.
:05:52. > :05:55.Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their
:05:56. > :06:00.interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate
:06:01. > :06:05.accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50
:06:06. > :06:09.letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of
:06:10. > :06:15.balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness
:06:16. > :06:24.and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a
:06:25. > :06:29.real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are
:06:30. > :06:36.going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting.
:06:37. > :06:45.It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out.
:06:46. > :06:48.So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much
:06:49. > :06:51.But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door?
:06:52. > :06:53.Or can we expect a bit of turbulence?
:06:54. > :06:56.Are you taking back control, Prime Minister?
:06:57. > :06:58.Big days in politics usually involve people shouting
:06:59. > :07:00.and the Prime Minister getting in a car.
:07:01. > :07:03.It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament.
:07:04. > :07:05.But the short journey is the start of a much longer one
:07:06. > :07:10.and we do not know exactly where we will all end up.
:07:11. > :07:13.This is a historic moment from which there can
:07:14. > :07:22.Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter,
:07:23. > :07:25.was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU
:07:26. > :07:28.He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted.
:07:29. > :07:33.Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world
:07:34. > :07:36.were trying to work out what it all meant for the
:07:37. > :07:42.So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter
:07:43. > :07:49.The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit
:07:50. > :07:52.deal and a future trade deal at the same time.
:07:53. > :07:54.It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated
:07:55. > :07:56.a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation
:07:57. > :08:00.in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.
:08:01. > :08:04.Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen
:08:05. > :08:10.if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol.
:08:11. > :08:14.We would not be able to access information in the same way
:08:15. > :08:17.as we would as a member, so it is important, I think,
:08:18. > :08:18.we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that
:08:19. > :08:21.enables us to work together in the way that we have.
:08:22. > :08:23.That night, the Brexiteers were happy.
:08:24. > :08:30.We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do.
:08:31. > :08:33.Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party,
:08:34. > :08:42.I am not sure that is actually Boris, though.
:08:43. > :08:57.The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use
:08:58. > :08:57.security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's
:08:58. > :08:58.cooperation in this area if no deal was struck.
:08:59. > :08:58.Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary.
:08:59. > :09:01.We can both cope, but we will both be worse off.
:09:02. > :09:04.That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat,
:09:05. > :09:07.David Davis had other business that morning,
:09:08. > :09:09.introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer
:09:10. > :09:12.all EU law into British law to change later,
:09:13. > :09:17.It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said,
:09:18. > :09:19.among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier
:09:20. > :09:26.As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership
:09:27. > :09:28.with the European Union, we are doing so from a position
:09:29. > :09:30.where we have the same standards and rules.
:09:31. > :09:36.It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy
:09:37. > :09:38.of European Union law in the UK as we exit.
:09:39. > :09:46.There was, though, a small issue with the name.
:09:47. > :09:49.The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill.
:09:50. > :09:51.Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed
:09:52. > :09:59.Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill.
:10:00. > :10:01.So far, it had been a tale of two cities.
:10:02. > :10:05.By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders
:10:06. > :10:07.were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again,
:10:08. > :10:14.set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy.
:10:15. > :10:17.Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress
:10:18. > :10:19.on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our
:10:20. > :10:23.Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time,
:10:24. > :10:32.as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen.
:10:33. > :10:36.The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach.
:10:37. > :10:43.Brexit in itself is already punitive enough.
:10:44. > :10:46.The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now
:10:47. > :10:48.gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown
:10:49. > :10:58.But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen
:10:59. > :11:05.Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet.
:11:06. > :11:07.We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative
:11:08. > :11:15.The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK
:11:16. > :11:18.until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce
:11:19. > :11:27.bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you
:11:28. > :11:33.can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I
:11:34. > :11:38.assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything
:11:39. > :11:40.is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked
:11:41. > :11:47.about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make
:11:48. > :11:52.a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it
:11:53. > :11:55.really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this
:11:56. > :12:00.country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound
:12:01. > :12:07.divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of
:12:08. > :12:11.this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of
:12:12. > :12:16.Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for
:12:17. > :12:24.any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think
:12:25. > :12:26.some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly
:12:27. > :12:32.unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As
:12:33. > :12:37.one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to
:12:38. > :12:41.pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited
:12:42. > :12:47.about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be
:12:48. > :12:51.anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion
:12:52. > :13:00.euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get
:13:01. > :13:06.everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access
:13:07. > :13:10.for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be
:13:11. > :13:19.prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we
:13:20. > :13:23.get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are
:13:24. > :13:27.right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that
:13:28. > :13:33.would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a
:13:34. > :13:37.transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is
:13:38. > :13:42.more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement
:13:43. > :13:48.of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would
:13:49. > :13:51.that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the
:13:52. > :13:57.transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves
:13:58. > :14:01.here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should
:14:02. > :14:04.be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If
:14:05. > :14:10.there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take
:14:11. > :14:17.to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really
:14:18. > :14:20.rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant,
:14:21. > :14:25.depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk
:14:26. > :14:30.about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be.
:14:31. > :14:36.Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is
:14:37. > :14:41.reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It
:14:42. > :14:45.is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in
:14:46. > :14:49.their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of
:14:50. > :14:53.them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do
:14:54. > :14:57.agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we
:14:58. > :15:01.would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and
:15:02. > :15:10.corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite
:15:11. > :15:14.what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when
:15:15. > :15:22.we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not
:15:23. > :15:28.according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said,
:15:29. > :15:31.they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does
:15:32. > :15:36.not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can
:15:37. > :15:41.discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free
:15:42. > :15:44.trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for
:15:45. > :15:52.us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned.
:15:53. > :16:00.Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of
:16:01. > :16:04.migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all
:16:05. > :16:11.three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high
:16:12. > :16:17.would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry
:16:18. > :16:21.you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the
:16:22. > :16:26.chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of
:16:27. > :16:33.both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we
:16:34. > :16:37.do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World
:16:38. > :16:42.Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with
:16:43. > :16:46.the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade
:16:47. > :16:51.Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will
:16:52. > :16:55.get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you
:16:56. > :16:59.about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty
:17:00. > :17:05.issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain
:17:06. > :17:09.should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the
:17:10. > :17:14.Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it
:17:15. > :17:21.has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand
:17:22. > :17:25.by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime
:17:26. > :17:30.Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect
:17:31. > :17:34.another small group of British people against another
:17:35. > :17:38.Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current
:17:39. > :17:50.woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to
:17:51. > :17:52.Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading
:17:53. > :17:54.Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain
:17:55. > :17:57.having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes
:17:58. > :18:04.with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should
:18:05. > :18:08.the British government respond? The British government should show
:18:09. > :18:12.resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with
:18:13. > :18:17.free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working
:18:18. > :18:22.Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very
:18:23. > :18:27.confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the
:18:28. > :18:30.interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank
:18:31. > :18:33.you for joining us from Kent this morning.
:18:34. > :18:35.Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten,
:18:36. > :18:37.there are things happening other than Brexit.
:18:38. > :18:40.In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important
:18:41. > :18:43.domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs.
:18:44. > :18:46.Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England,
:18:47. > :18:51.In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370
:18:52. > :18:57.The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength
:18:58. > :19:04.Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not
:19:05. > :19:08.Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created
:19:09. > :19:11.combined authority mayors, and there will be contests
:19:12. > :19:18.for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester,
:19:19. > :19:20.Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls.
:19:21. > :19:23.In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested,
:19:24. > :19:25.many of them affected by boundary changes.
:19:26. > :19:28.Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one
:19:29. > :19:33.Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils
:19:34. > :19:40.All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very
:19:41. > :19:41.strong year for Labour, though independent
:19:42. > :19:44.candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats.
:19:45. > :19:45.According to the latest calculations by Plymouth
:19:46. > :19:51.University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted
:19:52. > :19:54.to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government,
:19:55. > :20:00.But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties,
:20:01. > :20:02.with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip
:20:03. > :20:08.could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats.
:20:09. > :20:10.Though the proportional system usually makes big changes
:20:11. > :20:13.less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase
:20:14. > :20:15.both the number of seats they hold, and the number
:20:16. > :20:24.In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support.
:20:25. > :20:27.Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down,
:20:28. > :20:29.with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense.
:20:30. > :20:32.Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru,
:20:33. > :20:35.Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde.
:20:36. > :20:42.Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the
:20:43. > :20:47.selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal
:20:48. > :20:50.because this is for the most part rural England. The only control
:20:51. > :20:54.three of the council they are defending and they are only
:20:55. > :20:59.defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham.
:21:00. > :21:02.Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12
:21:03. > :21:15.months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now
:21:16. > :21:18.with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England
:21:19. > :21:20.were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour
:21:21. > :21:23.to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic
:21:24. > :21:27.for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them,
:21:28. > :21:31.Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with
:21:32. > :21:35.virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these
:21:36. > :21:39.elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat
:21:40. > :21:43.reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this
:21:44. > :21:47.picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing
:21:48. > :21:55.extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that
:21:56. > :21:58.they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than
:21:59. > :22:00.treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the
:22:01. > :22:04.lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition
:22:05. > :22:08.with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may
:22:09. > :22:12.well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain
:22:13. > :22:15.seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste
:22:16. > :22:20.votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if
:22:21. > :22:22.the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for
:22:23. > :22:56.mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty
:22:57. > :22:58.consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside,
:22:59. > :23:00.Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very
:23:01. > :23:03.closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you
:23:04. > :23:06.look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine
:23:07. > :23:08.points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at
:23:09. > :23:11.the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to
:23:12. > :23:14.where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw.
:23:15. > :23:16.Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West
:23:17. > :23:18.Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that
:23:19. > :23:22.would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince
:23:23. > :23:26.people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in
:23:27. > :23:30.truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has
:23:31. > :23:36.Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats.
:23:37. > :23:40.It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal
:23:41. > :23:47.seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting
:23:48. > :23:53.Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it
:23:54. > :23:58.take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is
:23:59. > :24:02.uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government
:24:03. > :24:07.by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats
:24:08. > :24:11.were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage
:24:12. > :24:15.point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result
:24:16. > :24:24.compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone --
:24:25. > :24:26.this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the
:24:27. > :24:29.SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to
:24:30. > :24:33.lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will
:24:34. > :24:38.become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In
:24:39. > :24:42.Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives
:24:43. > :24:46.did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour
:24:47. > :24:54.are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections,
:24:55. > :24:56.repeating the third they suffered in the Holyrood elections last year. In
:24:57. > :25:02.Wales, Labour is expecting to lose control of a number of councils.
:25:03. > :25:06.They are the main party in 12 of 22 local authorities. How bad could it
:25:07. > :25:10.be? We're expecting Labour to lose ground. In the opinion polls when
:25:11. > :25:16.these seats were last fought, labourer in the high 40s. Now they
:25:17. > :25:21.are not much above 30%. Cardiff could well join Glasgow was no
:25:22. > :25:26.longer being a Labour stronghold. Look out for Newport. Some of the
:25:27. > :25:40.South Wales councils that Labour control, Labour is
:25:41. > :25:43.probably too but occasionally, Plaid Cymru surprises in this area. They
:25:44. > :25:46.managed to win the Rhondda seat in the assembly elections. Jeremy
:25:47. > :25:48.Corbyn has said he wants to be judged on proper elections, council
:25:49. > :25:50.elections as opposed to opinion polls, but even if he does as badly
:25:51. > :25:57.as John has been suggesting, does it affect his leadership? I think it
:25:58. > :26:00.does on two counts. It will affect his own confidence. Anyone who is a
:26:01. > :26:04.human being will be affected by this. He might go into his office
:26:05. > :26:09.and be told by John McDonnell and others, stand firm, it is all right,
:26:10. > :26:16.but it will affect his confidence and inevitably it contributes to a
:26:17. > :26:20.sense that this is moving to some kind of denoument, at some point. In
:26:21. > :26:27.other words, while I understand the argument that he has won twice in a
:26:28. > :26:32.leadership contest, well, within 12 months, I wonder whether this can
:26:33. > :26:38.carry on in a fixed term parliament, up until 2020, if it were to do so.
:26:39. > :26:43.On two France, it will have some impact. I am not seeing it will lead
:26:44. > :26:47.to his immediate departure, it will mark, but if these things are as
:26:48. > :26:55.devastating as John suggests, it will have an impact. Tom, I'll be
:26:56. > :26:59.looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That is the $64,000 question. It would
:27:00. > :27:04.seem that we should be. One massive reason we're not having a general
:27:05. > :27:07.election a time soon, apart from the fact that Theresa May does not
:27:08. > :27:13.believe in these things, she believes in pressing on, it is
:27:14. > :27:15.because Tory MPs in the South West who took the Lib Dem seats, they
:27:16. > :27:19.were telling Number 10 they were worried they were going to lose
:27:20. > :27:23.their seats back to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems never went away and
:27:24. > :27:27.local government. They have got other campaigners and activists. It
:27:28. > :27:33.looks credible that they will be the success story of the whole thing.
:27:34. > :27:37.Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says this will be the most difficult
:27:38. > :27:43.local elections his party will face before 2020. A bit of management of
:27:44. > :27:48.expectations. It is unlikely to be a good time for Ukip. They are right
:27:49. > :27:51.to manage expectations. The results will be horrible for Ukip. I agree
:27:52. > :28:14.with Tom about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories. Talking to
:28:15. > :28:16.some senior figures within the Tory party earlier this week, I was
:28:17. > :28:19.picking up that they are worried about 30-40 general election seeds
:28:20. > :28:21.being vulnerable to the Lib Dems because of the Labour collapse. I
:28:22. > :28:22.would normally agree with Steve about the resilience of politicians,
:28:23. > :28:25.the capability of withstanding repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is
:28:26. > :28:28.not in the normal category. I think he is, in the sense that although he
:28:29. > :28:31.get solace from winning leadership contest, anyone who leads a party
:28:32. > :28:36.into the kind of, it is not going to be that vivid, because they are not
:28:37. > :28:43.defending the key seats. If they were to win Birmingham, say, and get
:28:44. > :28:46.slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, it will undermine what is already a
:28:47. > :28:49.fairly ambiguous sense of self-confidence. We need to leave it
:28:50. > :28:51.there. Thank you, John Curtice. Well, with those elections
:28:52. > :28:54.on the horizon, is Labour where it Former leader Ed Miliband
:28:55. > :28:57.was on the Andrew Marr Show earlier and he explained
:28:58. > :28:59.the challenge Labour faces It is easier for other parties,
:29:00. > :29:04.if you are the Greens or the Liberal Democrats you're essentially
:29:05. > :29:06.fishing in the 48% pool. If you are Ukip, you are
:29:07. > :29:10.fishing in the 52% pool. Labour is trying to do
:29:11. > :29:12.something much harder, which is to try and speak
:29:13. > :29:14.for the whole country, and by the way, that is another part
:29:15. > :29:17.of Our attack on Theresa May,
:29:18. > :29:21.part of it is she's Ignoring the verdict
:29:22. > :29:27.going into this, saying, let's overturn it, looks
:29:28. > :29:29.like ignoring the 52%. By the way, there is more
:29:30. > :29:34.that unites Remainers and Leavers than might first appear,
:29:35. > :29:37.because they share common concerns about the way
:29:38. > :29:42.the country is run. Joining me now is the Shadow Health
:29:43. > :29:50.Secretary, Jon Ashworth. Welcome to the programme. Alastair
:29:51. > :29:55.Campbell told me on the BBC on Thursday that he is fighting to
:29:56. > :29:59.reverse the referendum result. Ed Miliband says that Remain needs to
:30:00. > :30:05.accept the result, come to terms with it. Who is right? We have to
:30:06. > :30:10.accept the referendum result. I campaigned passionately to remain in
:30:11. > :30:14.the European Union. The city I represent, Leicester, voted narrowly
:30:15. > :30:18.to remain in the European Union. Sadly the country did not. We cannot
:30:19. > :30:24.overturn that and be like kinky nude, trying to demand the tide go
:30:25. > :30:28.back out. We have to accept this democratic process. We all voted to
:30:29. > :30:35.have a referendum when the relevant legislation came to Parliament. How
:30:36. > :30:46.bad will the local elections before Labour? Let us see where we get to
:30:47. > :30:51.on election night when I am sure I will be invited on to one of these
:30:52. > :30:59.types of programmes... The election date, the following day. But it does
:31:00. > :31:03.look like you will lose seats across the board in England, Scotland and
:31:04. > :31:09.Wales. What did you make of what Steve Richards said about the impact
:31:10. > :31:13.on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We have to win seats, we cannot fall
:31:14. > :31:21.back on the scales suggested. No, your package was right, it tends to
:31:22. > :31:26.be Tory areas, but generally, we have to be winning in
:31:27. > :31:30.Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those types of places because they contain
:31:31. > :31:34.a lot of the marginal constituencies that decide general elections. The
:31:35. > :31:40.important places in the elections are towns like Beeston, towns you
:31:41. > :31:46.have not heard of, but they are marginal towns in marginal swing
:31:47. > :31:51.constituencies. We have to do well in them. We will see where we are on
:31:52. > :31:57.election night but my pretty is to campaign hard in these areas over
:31:58. > :32:02.the next few weeks. Even people who voted Labour in 2015, they prefer
:32:03. > :32:07.Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't
:32:08. > :32:17.that extraordinary? I have not seen that. I will look it up. It was you
:32:18. > :32:21.Government. -- YouGov. It is important we win the trust of
:32:22. > :32:26.people. You are not winning the trust of people who voted for you in
:32:27. > :32:31.2015. We have to hold onto people who voted for us in 2015 and we have
:32:32. > :32:35.to persuade people who voted for other parties to come to us. One of
:32:36. > :32:41.the criticisms I have of the debate that goes on in the wider Labour
:32:42. > :32:44.Party, do not misunderstand me, I am not making a criticism about an
:32:45. > :32:49.individual, but the debate you see online suggests that if you want to
:32:50. > :32:54.get people who voted Conservative to switch to Labour it is somehow a
:32:55. > :33:01.betrayal of our principles, it was not. Justin Trudeau said
:33:02. > :33:07.Conservative voters are our neighbours, our relatives. We have
:33:08. > :33:13.to persuade people to switch from voting Conservative to voting Labour
:33:14. > :33:18.as well as increasing our vote among nonvoters and Greens. It seems like
:33:19. > :33:21.you have a mountain to climb and the mountain is Everest. Another poll, I
:33:22. > :33:32.am not sure if you have seen this, in London, the Bastian of Labour,
:33:33. > :33:37.the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is less popular than even Ukip's Paul
:33:38. > :33:44.Nuttall. That is beyond extraordinary! I do not know about
:33:45. > :33:50.that. The most recent set of elections in London was the mayoral
:33:51. > :33:55.election where the Labour candidate city: won handsomely. He took the
:33:56. > :34:05.seat of a conservative. We took that of a conservative. It was a year
:34:06. > :34:11.ago. We did well then. You had an anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I
:34:12. > :34:16.think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, from memory. We have not got
:34:17. > :34:24.elections in London but our elections are in the county areas
:34:25. > :34:30.and the various mayoral elections... What about the West Midlands? In any
:34:31. > :34:35.normal year, mid-term, as the opposition, Labour should win the
:34:36. > :34:41.West Midlands. John Curtis says it is nip and tuck. It has always been
:34:42. > :34:44.a swing region but we want to do well, of course. We want to turn out
:34:45. > :34:50.a strong Labour vote in Dudley, Northampton, those sorts of places.
:34:51. > :34:57.They are key constituencies in the general election. Does Labour look
:34:58. > :35:02.like a government in waiting to you? What I would say is contrast where
:35:03. > :35:08.we are to what the conservative garment is doing. I asked you about
:35:09. > :35:11.Labour, you do not get to tell me about the Conservatives. Does it
:35:12. > :35:15.look like a government in waiting to you? Today we are exposing the
:35:16. > :35:21.Conservatives... Reminding people the Conservatives are breaking the
:35:22. > :35:25.pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks so lots of elderly people waiting
:35:26. > :35:30.longer in pain for hip replacements and cataract replacements. Yesterday
:35:31. > :35:36.the Housing spokesperson John Healey was exposing the shortcomings in the
:35:37. > :35:40.Help to Buy scheme. The education spokesperson has been campaigning
:35:41. > :35:43.hard against the cuts to schools. Tom Watson has been campaigning hard
:35:44. > :35:48.against some of the changes the Government want to introduce in
:35:49. > :35:52.culture. The Shadow Cabinet are working hard to hold the
:35:53. > :35:57.Government's feet to the fire. Does it look like a government in
:35:58. > :36:03.waiting? Yes. It took you three times! There is a social care
:36:04. > :36:08.crisis, schools funding issue, a huge issue for lots of areas, the
:36:09. > :36:15.NHS has just got through the winter and is abandoning many of its
:36:16. > :36:21.targets. You are 18 points behind in the polls. We have to work harder.
:36:22. > :36:25.What can you do? The opinion polls are challenging but we are a great
:36:26. > :36:30.Social Democratic Party of government. On Twitter today, lots
:36:31. > :36:35.of Labour activists celebrating that the national minimum wage has been
:36:36. > :36:39.in place for something like 16 years because we were in government. Look
:36:40. > :36:43.of the sweeping progressive changes this country has benefited from, the
:36:44. > :36:47.NHS, sure start centres, an assault on child poverty, the Labour Party
:36:48. > :36:54.got itself in contention for government. I entirely accept the
:36:55. > :36:58.polls do not make thrilling reading for Labour politicians on Sunday
:36:59. > :37:01.morning, but it means people like me have to work harder because we are
:37:02. > :37:04.part of something bigger than an individual, we are in the business
:37:05. > :37:09.of changing things for the British people and if we do not do that, if
:37:10. > :37:13.we do not focus on that, we are letting people down. Is Labour
:37:14. > :37:20.preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the
:37:21. > :37:26.press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election
:37:27. > :37:29.coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became
:37:30. > :37:35.Prime Minister. We are investing in staff and the organisational
:37:36. > :37:39.capability we need. By the way, the Labour Party staff do brilliant
:37:40. > :37:43.work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter having a go at them. They do
:37:44. > :37:44.tremendous work. Whenever the election comes, they will be ready.
:37:45. > :37:53.Jon Ashworth, thank you. So, what will be the effect
:37:54. > :01:08.of new tax and benefit changes Will the Government's grand
:01:09. > :01:12.trade tour reap benefits? And are the Lib Dems really
:01:13. > :01:14.going to replace Labour, To answer that last question,
:01:15. > :01:26.I'm joined by from Salford by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair
:01:27. > :01:38.Carmichael. Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems
:01:39. > :01:44.will replace Labour. How long will it take? We will have to wait and
:01:45. > :01:50.see. Anyone who thinks you can predict the future is engaged in a
:01:51. > :01:54.dodgy game. I have been campaigning with the Liberal Democrats in
:01:55. > :02:02.Manchester... You must not mention... You know the by-election
:02:03. > :02:06.rules. It is only an illustration. Across false ways of the country,
:02:07. > :02:15.the Liberal Democrats are back in business -- across whole swathes of
:02:16. > :02:19.the country. Part of the reason why we are getting a good response is
:02:20. > :02:25.because the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a
:02:26. > :02:29.self-destructive path. Even if you do pretty well in the local
:02:30. > :02:34.elections, it you have to make up lost ground from the time you did
:02:35. > :02:40.very well in previous times, you used to have 4700 councillors. It
:02:41. > :02:44.will take you a long while to get back to that. You will get no
:02:45. > :02:49.argument from me that we have a mountain to climb. What I'm telling
:02:50. > :02:53.you is, and if this is not just in this round of elections, it is in
:02:54. > :02:58.the other by-elections in places like Richmond, and in by-elections
:02:59. > :03:04.write the length and breadth of the country since last June, the Liberal
:03:05. > :03:07.Democrats are taking seats from the Labour Party under Conservative
:03:08. > :03:14.Party, and not just in Brexit phobic areas. Not just in Remain areas. But
:03:15. > :03:20.in places like Sunderland as well which voted very heavily for Brexit.
:03:21. > :03:26.In fact, that vote was in large part as well a protest against the way in
:03:27. > :03:31.which the Labour Party really has taken these areas for granted over
:03:32. > :03:34.the years. That is why the ground is fertile for us. In the local
:03:35. > :03:40.elections which is what we are discussing today, why would anybody
:03:41. > :03:47.vote for the Liberal Democrats if they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren
:03:48. > :03:53.has said he wants to reverse works. If you are Brexit supporter and you
:03:54. > :03:56.are considering how to cast your vote, first of all, I think you will
:03:57. > :04:00.be looking at the quality of representation you can get for your
:04:01. > :04:09.local area and you are right, we have a lot of ground to recoup from
:04:10. > :04:13.previous elections, we lost 124 seats, communities have now had a
:04:14. > :04:19.few years to reflect on the quality of service they have been able to
:04:20. > :04:21.get and they have missed the very effective liberal Democrat
:04:22. > :04:28.councillors they have had. This is not just about whether you are a
:04:29. > :04:34.believer or remainer, ultimately, that is an issue we are going to
:04:35. > :04:38.have to settle and we will settle it not in the way the Government is
:04:39. > :04:41.having by dictating the terms of the debate, but by bringing the whole
:04:42. > :04:46.country together. I think that is something you can only do if, as we
:04:47. > :04:50.have suggested, you give the people the opportunity to have a say on the
:04:51. > :04:55.deal when Theresa May eventually produces it. The only way you could
:04:56. > :04:59.really replace Labour in the foreseeable future would be if a big
:05:00. > :05:04.chunk of the centre and right of the Labour Party came over and join due
:05:05. > :05:12.in some kind of new social democratic alliance. -- joined you.
:05:13. > :05:14.There is no sign that will happen? I do not see whether common purpose is
:05:15. > :05:19.anymore holding the Labour Party together. That is for people in the
:05:20. > :05:26.Labour Party to make their own decisions. Use what happened to the
:05:27. > :05:32.Labour Party in Scotland. -- you saw. Politics moved on and left them
:05:33. > :05:37.behind and they were decimated as a consequence of that. So was your
:05:38. > :05:41.party. It is possible the same thing could happen to the Labour Party and
:05:42. > :05:46.the rest of the UK. Politics is moving on and they are coming up
:05:47. > :05:54.with 1970s solutions to problems in 2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks
:05:55. > :06:00.for joining us. Let us have a look at some of the tax and benefit
:06:01. > :06:05.changes coming up this week. The tax changes first of all. The personal
:06:06. > :06:09.allowance is going to rise to ?11,500, the level at which you
:06:10. > :06:16.start to pay tax. The higher rate threshold, where you start to play
:06:17. > :06:23.at 40%, that will rise from currently ?43,400, rising up to 40
:06:24. > :06:29.5000. -- pay. Benefit changes, freeze on working age benefits,
:06:30. > :06:35.removal of the family element of tax credits and universal credit, that
:06:36. > :06:41.is a technical change but quite an impact. The child element of tax
:06:42. > :06:48.credit is going to be limited to two children on any new claims. The
:06:49. > :06:52.Resolution Foundation has crunched the numbers and they discovered that
:06:53. > :06:58.when you take the tax and benefit changes together, 80% go to better
:06:59. > :07:06.off households and the poorest third or worse. What help -- what happened
:07:07. > :07:13.to help the just about managing? The Resolution Foundation exists to find
:07:14. > :07:18.the worst possible statistics... It is not clear the figures are wrong?
:07:19. > :07:23.They are fairly recent figures and I have not seen analysis by other
:07:24. > :07:27.organisations. The Adam Smith Institute will probably have some
:07:28. > :07:31.question marks over it. Nobody should be surprised a Tory
:07:32. > :07:36.government is trying to make the state smaller... And the poor
:07:37. > :07:41.poorer. The system is propped up by better off people and so it will be
:07:42. > :07:49.those people who will be slightly less heavily taxed as you make the
:07:50. > :07:53.state smaller. Theresa May will have to stop just talking about the just
:07:54. > :07:56.about managing. And some of her other language and the role of the
:07:57. > :08:01.government and the state when she sounded quite positive... She
:08:02. > :08:05.sounded like a big government conservative not small government.
:08:06. > :08:13.In every set piece occasion, she says, it is time to look at the good
:08:14. > :08:17.the government can do. That is not what you heard from Mrs Thatcher.
:08:18. > :08:23.Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would not have dared to say it either even
:08:24. > :08:29.if they believed it. It raises a much bigger question which is, as
:08:30. > :08:32.well as whether this is a set of progressive measures, the Resolution
:08:33. > :08:36.Foundation constantly argued when George Osborne announced his budget
:08:37. > :08:41.measures as progressive when they were regressive when they checked
:08:42. > :08:45.out the figures, but also how this government was going to meet the
:08:46. > :08:50.demand for public services when it has ruled out virtually any tax
:08:51. > :08:54.rises that you would normally do now, including National Insurance.
:08:55. > :08:59.There are a whole range of nightmare issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray
:09:00. > :09:04.in relation to tax. The Resolution Foundation figures do not include
:09:05. > :09:08.the rise in the minimum wage which has just gone under way. They do not
:09:09. > :09:11.include the tax free childcare from the end of April, the extra 15 hours
:09:12. > :09:17.of free childcare from September. Even when you include these, it does
:09:18. > :09:21.not look like it would offset the losses of the poorest households.
:09:22. > :09:26.Doesn't that have to be a problem for Theresa May? It really is a
:09:27. > :09:29.problem especially when her narrative and indeed entire purpose
:09:30. > :09:35.in government is for that just about managing. What Mrs May still has
:09:36. > :09:40.which is exactly a problem they have at the budget and the Autumn
:09:41. > :09:44.Statement is that they are still saddled with George Osborne's
:09:45. > :09:50.massive ring fences on tax cuts and spending. They have to go through
:09:51. > :09:53.with the tax cut for the middle classes by pushing up the higher
:09:54. > :09:57.rate threshold which is absolutely going to do nothing for the just
:09:58. > :10:00.about managing. When they try to mitigate that, for example, in the
:10:01. > :10:04.Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was told to come up with more money to
:10:05. > :10:09.ease the cuts in tax credits, came up with 350 million, an absolute...
:10:10. > :10:15.It is billions and billions involved. Marginal adjustment. A
:10:16. > :10:19.huge problem with the actual tax and benefit changes going on with what
:10:20. > :10:23.Mrs May as saying. The only way to fix it is coming up with more money
:10:24. > :10:28.to alleviate that. Where will you find it? Philip Hammond tried in the
:10:29. > :10:32.Budget with the National Insurance rises but it lasted six and a half
:10:33. > :10:37.days. I was told that it was one of the reasons why the Chancellor
:10:38. > :10:43.looked kindly on the idea of an early election because he wanted to
:10:44. > :10:48.get rid of what he regards as an albatross around his neck, the Tory
:10:49. > :10:52.manifesto 2015, no increase in income tax, no increase in VAT, no
:10:53. > :10:57.increase in National Insurance, fuel duty was not cut when fuel prices
:10:58. > :11:03.were falling so it is hardly going to rise now when they are rising
:11:04. > :11:06.again. This is why, I suggest, they end up in these incredibly
:11:07. > :11:11.complicated what we used to call stealth taxes as ways of trying to
:11:12. > :11:16.raise money and invariably a blow up in your face. Stealth taxes never
:11:17. > :11:21.end up being stealthy. It is part of the narrative that budget begins to
:11:22. > :11:26.fall apart within hours. You have to have sympathy, as Tom says, with
:11:27. > :11:31.Philip Hammond. No wonder he would like to be liberated. The early
:11:32. > :11:35.election will not happen. The best argument I have heard for an early
:11:36. > :11:38.election. The tax and spend about at the last election was a disaster
:11:39. > :11:45.partly because the Conservatives feared they would lose. Maybe they
:11:46. > :11:52.could be a bit more candid about the need to put up some taxes to pay for
:11:53. > :11:54.public services and it is very interesting what you picked up on
:11:55. > :12:00.Philip Hammond because he is trapped. So constrained about... You
:12:01. > :12:06.can also reopen the Ring fencing and spending and the obvious place to go
:12:07. > :12:11.is the triple lock, OAP spending. Another case for an election. He
:12:12. > :12:17.cannot undo the promise to that demographic. We will not get to 2020
:12:18. > :12:22.without something breaking. The Prime Minister, the trade secretary
:12:23. > :12:30.and Mr Hammond, they are off to India, the Far East, talking up
:12:31. > :12:37.trade with these countries, I do not know if any of you are going? Sadly
:12:38. > :12:42.not. Will it produce dividends? The prime Minster is going somewhere
:12:43. > :12:46.too. No, it will not, the honest answer. No one will do a trade deal
:12:47. > :12:49.with us because we cannot do one because we are still in the EU and
:12:50. > :12:53.they need to know what our terms will be with the EU first before
:12:54. > :12:58.they can work out how they want to trade with us. This is vital
:12:59. > :13:02.preparatory work. Ministers always go somewhere in recess, it is what
:13:03. > :13:07.they do. We will not see anything in a hurry, we will not see anything
:13:08. > :13:12.for two years. They have to do it. Whatever side of the joint you are
:13:13. > :13:17.on, Brexit, remain, we need to get out there. -- the argument. We
:13:18. > :13:21.should have been doing this the day after the referendum result. It is
:13:22. > :13:26.now several months down the line and they need to step it up, not the
:13:27. > :13:30.opposite. You can make some informal talks, I guess. You can say, Britain
:13:31. > :13:37.is open for business. There is a symbolism to it. What a lot of
:13:38. > :13:41.energy sucked up into this. Parliament is not sitting so they
:13:42. > :13:47.might as well start talking. We have run out of energy and time. That is
:13:48. > :13:51.it for today. We are off for the Easter recess, back in two weeks'
:13:52. > :13:53.time. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is that
:13:54. > :14:22.used to recess! -- Easter recess. Marine Le Pen has her eyes
:14:23. > :14:25.on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself
:14:26. > :14:30.from her party's controversial past,