0:00:37 > 0:00:39Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
0:00:39 > 0:00:40I'm Sarah Smith.
0:00:40 > 0:00:43And this is your guide to all the big stories that
0:00:43 > 0:00:47are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.
0:00:47 > 0:00:49Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget
0:00:49 > 0:00:52on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,
0:00:52 > 0:00:55show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -
0:00:55 > 0:01:00but can he change the direction of the country and his government?
0:01:00 > 0:01:02Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has
0:01:02 > 0:01:04some advice of his own.
0:01:04 > 0:01:06He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit
0:01:06 > 0:01:10- he joins me live to explain why.
0:01:10 > 0:01:14The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating
0:01:14 > 0:01:16with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking
0:01:16 > 0:01:19a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses
0:01:19 > 0:01:23about Brexit.
0:01:23 > 0:01:26And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,
0:01:26 > 0:01:28we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,
0:01:28 > 0:01:31finding out who people most trust with the economy -
0:01:31 > 0:01:34Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?
0:01:34 > 0:01:38In London - a tale of community, housing and football.
0:01:38 > 0:01:40Why full-time might soon be called on
0:01:40 > 0:01:44Dulwich Hamlet Football Club.
0:01:51 > 0:01:52All that coming up in the programme.
0:01:52 > 0:01:55And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised
0:01:55 > 0:01:59not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -
0:01:59 > 0:02:01although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -
0:02:01 > 0:02:05it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.
0:02:05 > 0:02:08Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news
0:02:08 > 0:02:10this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's
0:02:10 > 0:02:12plenty of speculation about what might or not might be
0:02:12 > 0:02:15in Philip Hammond's Budget.
0:02:15 > 0:02:17The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,
0:02:17 > 0:02:21including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,
0:02:24 > 0:02:27where he talks about plans to reach the target of building
0:02:27 > 0:02:30300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city
0:02:30 > 0:02:31the size of Leeds.
0:02:31 > 0:02:34That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal
0:02:34 > 0:02:37Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out
0:02:37 > 0:02:40a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.
0:02:40 > 0:02:43The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer
0:02:43 > 0:02:46a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.
0:02:46 > 0:02:49But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
0:02:49 > 0:02:52He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency
0:02:52 > 0:02:54budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.
0:02:54 > 0:02:58So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond
0:02:58 > 0:03:01and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning
0:03:01 > 0:03:04on the Andrew Marr Show.
0:03:04 > 0:03:07I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,
0:03:07 > 0:03:10and we have to embrace the opportunities that
0:03:10 > 0:03:12a post-Brexit world will offer.
0:03:12 > 0:03:14They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,
0:03:14 > 0:03:17huge technological evolution.
0:03:17 > 0:03:20It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown
0:03:20 > 0:03:23time and time again that we're up for these challenges.
0:03:23 > 0:03:26For many people out there, this is a depression.
0:03:26 > 0:03:30We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.
0:03:30 > 0:03:32Nurses, for example.
0:03:32 > 0:03:35We've had people who are now...
0:03:35 > 0:03:391.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest
0:03:39 > 0:03:40country in the world.
0:03:40 > 0:03:48That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.
0:03:48 > 0:03:54We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,
0:03:54 > 0:03:58but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk
0:03:58 > 0:04:02to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to
0:04:02 > 0:04:07set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we
0:04:07 > 0:04:12expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor
0:04:12 > 0:04:16across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think
0:04:16 > 0:04:25we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A
0:04:25 > 0:04:28short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.
0:04:28 > 0:04:33They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to
0:04:33 > 0:04:37capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on
0:04:37 > 0:04:42earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are
0:04:42 > 0:04:50good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,
0:04:50 > 0:04:55Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get
0:04:55 > 0:04:58anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory
0:04:58 > 0:05:07MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have
0:05:07 > 0:05:10seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting
0:05:10 > 0:05:15in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment
0:05:15 > 0:05:19for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical
0:05:19 > 0:05:24through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold
0:05:24 > 0:05:31ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their
0:05:31 > 0:05:34Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing
0:05:34 > 0:05:39something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for
0:05:39 > 0:05:44how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with
0:05:44 > 0:05:49everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation
0:05:49 > 0:05:54for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for
0:05:54 > 0:05:58economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the
0:05:58 > 0:06:02issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up
0:06:02 > 0:06:07with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they
0:06:07 > 0:06:12absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls
0:06:12 > 0:06:17apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from
0:06:17 > 0:06:20Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them
0:06:20 > 0:06:25something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different
0:06:25 > 0:06:28people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and
0:06:28 > 0:06:37dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical
0:06:37 > 0:06:45terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic
0:06:45 > 0:06:51cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if
0:06:51 > 0:06:56you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,
0:06:56 > 0:07:01if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be
0:07:01 > 0:07:07worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn
0:07:07 > 0:07:13on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,
0:07:13 > 0:07:17and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of
0:07:17 > 0:07:20probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in
0:07:20 > 0:07:25the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds
0:07:25 > 0:07:31impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the
0:07:31 > 0:07:36last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much
0:07:36 > 0:07:41can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it
0:07:41 > 0:07:48is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the
0:07:48 > 0:07:53party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,
0:07:53 > 0:08:02damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction
0:08:02 > 0:08:09in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high
0:08:09 > 0:08:14inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will
0:08:14 > 0:08:19probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will
0:08:19 > 0:08:24pick up on some of this later in the programme.
0:08:24 > 0:08:26Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week
0:08:26 > 0:08:29he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised
0:08:29 > 0:08:31the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences
0:08:31 > 0:08:35of leaving the EU.
0:08:35 > 0:08:39Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty
0:08:39 > 0:08:48radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the
0:08:48 > 0:08:53London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we
0:08:53 > 0:08:57will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to
0:08:57 > 0:09:01the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we
0:09:01 > 0:09:06have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It
0:09:06 > 0:09:11is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the
0:09:11 > 0:09:16modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,
0:09:16 > 0:09:20which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what
0:09:20 > 0:09:28would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.
0:09:28 > 0:09:33The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the
0:09:33 > 0:09:36classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free
0:09:36 > 0:09:41trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting
0:09:41 > 0:09:49a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you
0:09:49 > 0:09:53right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the
0:09:53 > 0:09:57Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on
0:09:57 > 0:10:02the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury
0:10:02 > 0:10:06have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the
0:10:06 > 0:10:10nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.
0:10:10 > 0:10:15These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the
0:10:15 > 0:10:22euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but
0:10:22 > 0:10:28it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,
0:10:28 > 0:10:37who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the
0:10:37 > 0:10:41exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past
0:10:41 > 0:10:46doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the
0:10:46 > 0:10:50Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to
0:10:50 > 0:10:55you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its
0:10:55 > 0:11:01forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The
0:11:01 > 0:11:04short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most
0:11:04 > 0:11:10dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of
0:11:10 > 0:11:13political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the
0:11:13 > 0:11:18same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.
0:11:18 > 0:11:22You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,
0:11:22 > 0:11:26and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the
0:11:26 > 0:11:32Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an
0:11:32 > 0:11:38enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,
0:11:38 > 0:11:43his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to
0:11:43 > 0:11:46the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to
0:11:46 > 0:11:53change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he
0:11:53 > 0:11:58is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very
0:11:58 > 0:12:03encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive
0:12:03 > 0:12:08approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very
0:12:08 > 0:12:15close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury
0:12:15 > 0:12:19and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an
0:12:19 > 0:12:23exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad
0:12:23 > 0:12:28thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather
0:12:28 > 0:12:34than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in
0:12:34 > 0:12:39absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.
0:12:39 > 0:12:43When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has
0:12:43 > 0:12:50to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the
0:12:50 > 0:12:53referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been
0:12:53 > 0:12:58made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This
0:12:58 > 0:13:03only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that
0:13:03 > 0:13:10voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put
0:13:10 > 0:13:16£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the
0:13:16 > 0:13:22NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was
0:13:22 > 0:13:28won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on
0:13:28 > 0:13:32that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on
0:13:32 > 0:13:36implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The
0:13:36 > 0:13:41Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we
0:13:41 > 0:13:46understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU
0:13:46 > 0:13:49demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for
0:13:49 > 0:13:55things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the
0:13:55 > 0:14:02exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government
0:14:02 > 0:14:06will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,
0:14:06 > 0:14:11or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be
0:14:11 > 0:14:15part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to
0:14:15 > 0:14:20choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to
0:14:20 > 0:14:24choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive
0:14:24 > 0:14:28schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the
0:14:28 > 0:14:38government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?
0:14:38 > 0:14:42It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we
0:14:42 > 0:14:49left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the
0:14:49 > 0:14:55remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against
0:14:55 > 0:14:59paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would
0:14:59 > 0:15:07be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have
0:15:07 > 0:15:11new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal
0:15:11 > 0:15:14situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down
0:15:14 > 0:15:19on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face
0:15:19 > 0:15:23of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned
0:15:23 > 0:15:31if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50
0:15:31 > 0:15:41is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it
0:15:41 > 0:15:45makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in
0:15:45 > 0:15:48same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of
0:15:48 > 0:15:53view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you
0:15:53 > 0:15:55would.
0:15:55 > 0:15:57We're joined in the studio by the former minister
0:15:57 > 0:15:58Stephen Hammond.
0:15:58 > 0:16:01He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member
0:16:01 > 0:16:04of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named
0:16:04 > 0:16:06as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph
0:16:06 > 0:16:08this week - lucky him.
0:16:08 > 0:16:13I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up
0:16:13 > 0:16:22on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a
0:16:22 > 0:16:27rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it
0:16:27 > 0:16:32is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the
0:16:32 > 0:16:36negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we
0:16:36 > 0:16:43expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March
0:16:43 > 0:16:482019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do
0:16:48 > 0:16:53harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those
0:16:53 > 0:16:57negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a
0:16:57 > 0:17:01couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019
0:17:01 > 0:17:06and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing
0:17:06 > 0:17:13with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government
0:17:13 > 0:17:16said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the
0:17:16 > 0:17:22advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by
0:17:22 > 0:17:26somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to
0:17:26 > 0:17:30be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You
0:17:30 > 0:17:34did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important
0:17:34 > 0:17:39that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to
0:17:39 > 0:17:44set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time
0:17:44 > 0:17:48available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal
0:17:48 > 0:17:55between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be
0:17:55 > 0:17:58interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British
0:17:58 > 0:18:03electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote
0:18:03 > 0:18:06to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we
0:18:06 > 0:18:11would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get
0:18:11 > 0:18:15through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be
0:18:15 > 0:18:20completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I
0:18:20 > 0:18:24don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and
0:18:24 > 0:18:30getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to
0:18:30 > 0:18:33settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount
0:18:33 > 0:18:40that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy
0:18:40 > 0:18:44for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick
0:18:44 > 0:18:49to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our
0:18:49 > 0:18:54liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20
0:18:54 > 0:18:58billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of
0:18:58 > 0:19:02the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade
0:19:02 > 0:19:08deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this
0:19:08 > 0:19:13that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're
0:19:13 > 0:19:19prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,
0:19:19 > 0:19:29that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The
0:19:29 > 0:19:33Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we
0:19:33 > 0:19:41don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has
0:19:41 > 0:19:46about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal
0:19:46 > 0:19:50requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the
0:19:50 > 0:19:54others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we
0:19:54 > 0:19:59shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier
0:19:59 > 0:20:04said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has
0:20:04 > 0:20:12not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer
0:20:12 > 0:20:17would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg
0:20:17 > 0:20:22suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But
0:20:22 > 0:20:27we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.
0:20:27 > 0:20:33No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.
0:20:33 > 0:20:38It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to
0:20:38 > 0:20:42secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the
0:20:42 > 0:20:48scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.
0:20:48 > 0:20:54You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some
0:20:54 > 0:21:00of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit
0:21:00 > 0:21:06suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do
0:21:06 > 0:21:13you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some
0:21:13 > 0:21:20flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff
0:21:20 > 0:21:27drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,
0:21:27 > 0:21:32the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his
0:21:32 > 0:21:37view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into
0:21:37 > 0:21:44the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.
0:21:44 > 0:21:49Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think
0:21:49 > 0:21:54that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the
0:21:54 > 0:21:58economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the
0:21:58 > 0:22:05price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the
0:22:05 > 0:22:09biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest
0:22:09 > 0:22:16in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in
0:22:16 > 0:22:24additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I
0:22:24 > 0:22:27think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling
0:22:27 > 0:22:34can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity
0:22:34 > 0:22:41model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the
0:22:41 > 0:22:47job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long
0:22:47 > 0:22:51economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of
0:22:51 > 0:22:55business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very
0:22:55 > 0:23:01much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.
0:23:01 > 0:23:05There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of
0:23:05 > 0:23:07individuals we want to stand together and support the best
0:23:07 > 0:23:13interests of the government.Thank you.
0:23:13 > 0:23:15Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying
0:23:15 > 0:23:18to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive
0:23:18 > 0:23:20free trade deal with the EU.
0:23:20 > 0:23:22He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'
0:23:22 > 0:23:27and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.
0:23:27 > 0:23:30Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders
0:23:30 > 0:23:32of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.
0:23:32 > 0:23:34We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders
0:23:34 > 0:23:37she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.
0:23:37 > 0:23:41Here's her film.
0:23:47 > 0:23:50I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,
0:23:50 > 0:23:53and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,
0:23:53 > 0:23:58and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20
0:23:58 > 0:24:02years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.
0:24:05 > 0:24:08I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful
0:24:08 > 0:24:11of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave
0:24:11 > 0:24:13the European Union because we thought the country would be
0:24:13 > 0:24:15better off outside.
0:24:15 > 0:24:18It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined
0:24:18 > 0:24:22the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining
0:24:22 > 0:24:26the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany
0:24:26 > 0:24:29experienced in the '70s back home.
0:24:29 > 0:24:31The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.
0:24:31 > 0:24:36But, of course, it didn't.
0:24:38 > 0:24:41Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,
0:24:41 > 0:24:44Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.
0:24:44 > 0:24:45Germany's extraordinary success is down to
0:24:45 > 0:24:50the pragmatism of its business.
0:24:50 > 0:24:55German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,
0:24:55 > 0:25:01long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.
0:25:01 > 0:25:04Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks
0:25:04 > 0:25:06are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want
0:25:06 > 0:25:14that to go away.
0:25:14 > 0:25:18German business is not given to making big political statements
0:25:18 > 0:25:21out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making
0:25:21 > 0:25:24positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal
0:25:24 > 0:25:27with the United Kingdom.
0:25:27 > 0:25:30BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,
0:25:30 > 0:25:34and exports just under 1 million cars annually.
0:25:34 > 0:25:39The UK is a vital market.
0:25:39 > 0:25:43What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,
0:25:43 > 0:25:48because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,
0:25:48 > 0:25:52it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,
0:25:52 > 0:25:56but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,
0:25:56 > 0:25:59and what we need to see now is what is going to be
0:25:59 > 0:26:02the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,
0:26:02 > 0:26:04what is going to be the requirements for people
0:26:04 > 0:26:07moving across the continent?
0:26:07 > 0:26:09Because all of these things are important to us today.
0:26:09 > 0:26:13And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.
0:26:13 > 0:26:15Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission
0:26:15 > 0:26:19is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be
0:26:19 > 0:26:21German business, German consumers and German employees
0:26:21 > 0:26:25who will suffer.
0:26:25 > 0:26:27TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete
0:26:27 > 0:26:30the first phase successfully.
0:26:30 > 0:26:33The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial
0:26:33 > 0:26:36consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.
0:26:36 > 0:26:39And then it's not a question of punishment payments.
0:26:39 > 0:26:42It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual
0:26:42 > 0:26:45obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes
0:26:45 > 0:26:48a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,
0:26:48 > 0:26:57so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.
0:26:57 > 0:27:02It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.
0:27:02 > 0:27:05Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,
0:27:05 > 0:27:09but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply
0:27:09 > 0:27:14have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.
0:27:14 > 0:27:17Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results
0:27:17 > 0:27:20both sides being able to trade together and work
0:27:20 > 0:27:26together post-Brexit.
0:27:26 > 0:27:28Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,
0:27:28 > 0:27:30and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.
0:27:30 > 0:27:35Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,
0:27:35 > 0:27:37then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,
0:27:37 > 0:27:38the European Union and Germany?
0:27:38 > 0:27:41It's absolutely true.
0:27:41 > 0:27:43I think that this is about two things.
0:27:43 > 0:27:49One, about proving that free trade is possible
0:27:49 > 0:27:52between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.
0:27:52 > 0:27:55If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,
0:27:55 > 0:27:59then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?
0:27:59 > 0:28:04Number two is, I also believe the free trade,
0:28:04 > 0:28:08free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain
0:28:08 > 0:28:10has chosen as the path into the future is a role
0:28:10 > 0:28:13model for Europe.
0:28:13 > 0:28:16The time has come both for the United Kingdom
0:28:16 > 0:28:19and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of
0:28:19 > 0:28:22deal we can achieve.
0:28:22 > 0:28:24Both sides need to be bold.
0:28:24 > 0:28:27As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,
0:28:27 > 0:28:32we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.
0:28:32 > 0:28:36But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading
0:28:36 > 0:28:38economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,
0:28:38 > 0:28:44and that is German business.
0:28:44 > 0:28:46That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case
0:28:46 > 0:28:48and we'll be hearing from the opposite side
0:28:48 > 0:28:50of the argument in the coming weeks.
0:28:50 > 0:28:53Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.
0:28:53 > 0:28:56He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up
0:28:56 > 0:28:57the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,
0:28:57 > 0:29:00and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference
0:29:00 > 0:29:02he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.
0:29:02 > 0:29:07Welcome both of you.
0:29:07 > 0:29:12We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German
0:29:12 > 0:29:17business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in
0:29:17 > 0:29:21their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI
0:29:21 > 0:29:26said that defending the single market must be the priority for the
0:29:26 > 0:29:31EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member
0:29:31 > 0:29:38states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after
0:29:38 > 0:29:43the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce
0:29:43 > 0:29:51tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a
0:29:51 > 0:29:55full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,
0:29:55 > 0:30:02that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion
0:30:02 > 0:30:06of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the
0:30:06 > 0:30:14head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important
0:30:14 > 0:30:20as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but
0:30:20 > 0:30:26the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second
0:30:26 > 0:30:30biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK
0:30:30 > 0:30:37that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that
0:30:37 > 0:30:41wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at
0:30:41 > 0:30:49the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what
0:30:49 > 0:30:54side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful
0:30:54 > 0:30:58thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be
0:30:58 > 0:31:02good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a
0:31:02 > 0:31:07disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the
0:31:07 > 0:31:11delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need
0:31:11 > 0:31:18us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80
0:31:18 > 0:31:22billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and
0:31:22 > 0:31:27Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.
0:31:27 > 0:31:33Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need
0:31:33 > 0:31:39them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's
0:31:39 > 0:31:45be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to
0:31:45 > 0:31:52end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no
0:31:52 > 0:31:59deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not
0:31:59 > 0:32:06there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,
0:32:06 > 0:32:10the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic
0:32:10 > 0:32:14decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would
0:32:14 > 0:32:19have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the
0:32:19 > 0:32:24referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's
0:32:24 > 0:32:30interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic
0:32:30 > 0:32:37stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that
0:32:37 > 0:32:50was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.
0:32:50 > 0:32:55There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a
0:32:55 > 0:33:00change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window
0:33:00 > 0:33:04to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted
0:33:04 > 0:33:11for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work
0:33:11 > 0:33:15together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You
0:33:15 > 0:33:21don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could
0:33:21 > 0:33:27give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a
0:33:27 > 0:33:32cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.
0:33:32 > 0:33:38I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about
0:33:38 > 0:33:44what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is
0:33:44 > 0:33:49democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing
0:33:49 > 0:33:53its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want
0:33:53 > 0:33:59to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to
0:33:59 > 0:34:04encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on
0:34:04 > 0:34:09the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we
0:34:09 > 0:34:14are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest
0:34:14 > 0:34:19of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting
0:34:19 > 0:34:23damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation
0:34:23 > 0:34:29Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European
0:34:29 > 0:34:38Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two
0:34:38 > 0:34:44minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people
0:34:44 > 0:34:54just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You
0:34:54 > 0:34:58either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision
0:34:58 > 0:35:03of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not
0:35:03 > 0:35:12stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel
0:35:12 > 0:35:23Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in
0:35:23 > 0:35:28Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving
0:35:28 > 0:35:32reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going
0:35:32 > 0:35:38on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of
0:35:38 > 0:35:44incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?
0:35:44 > 0:35:51You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that
0:35:51 > 0:35:55business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in
0:35:55 > 0:35:59place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will
0:35:59 > 0:36:03find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get
0:36:03 > 0:36:08those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the
0:36:08 > 0:36:12progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually
0:36:12 > 0:36:21encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke
0:36:21 > 0:36:24out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of
0:36:24 > 0:36:28time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The
0:36:28 > 0:36:32people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,
0:36:32 > 0:36:38still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.
0:36:38 > 0:36:46I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the
0:36:46 > 0:36:50incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept
0:36:50 > 0:36:55the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?
0:36:55 > 0:37:00I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that
0:37:00 > 0:37:04the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to
0:37:04 > 0:37:09change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled
0:37:09 > 0:37:15to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at
0:37:15 > 0:37:24the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is
0:37:24 > 0:37:30a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have
0:37:30 > 0:37:36fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably
0:37:36 > 0:37:41spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on
0:37:41 > 0:37:47the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want
0:37:47 > 0:37:53us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make
0:37:53 > 0:37:58it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I
0:37:58 > 0:38:04want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of
0:38:04 > 0:38:11the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany
0:38:11 > 0:38:17hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And
0:38:17 > 0:38:21they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.
0:38:21 > 0:38:24It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:24 > 0:38:26Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest
0:38:26 > 0:38:29opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox
0:38:29 > 0:38:31asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running
0:38:31 > 1:01:33the economy.
1:01:40 > 1:01:43Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -
1:01:43 > 1:01:46he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be
1:01:46 > 1:01:48hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes
1:01:48 > 1:01:49of the public.
1:01:49 > 1:01:53But when it comes to the economy, do people trust
1:01:53 > 1:01:54the Conservatives, or Labour?
1:01:54 > 1:01:59Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.
1:01:59 > 1:02:07MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.
1:02:07 > 1:02:10All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out
1:02:10 > 1:02:12what he has been cooking up in his Budget.
1:02:12 > 1:02:16So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here
1:02:16 > 1:02:18who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,
1:02:18 > 1:02:25Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?
1:02:25 > 1:02:28No 7.
1:02:28 > 1:02:34Which one's Tory?
1:02:40 > 1:02:42I voted Conservative for the last two
1:02:42 > 1:02:46elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.
1:02:46 > 1:02:48If I said to you which of these characters
1:02:48 > 1:02:51would you trust with the economy, what would you say?
1:02:51 > 1:02:53The one who's currently running it, because they
1:02:53 > 1:02:54seem to be bringing the deficit down.
1:02:54 > 1:02:55Labour.
1:02:55 > 1:02:56Why?
1:02:56 > 1:02:59Because I'm an NHS worker.
1:02:59 > 1:03:02For me, it's just about spending, public spending.
1:03:02 > 1:03:07Labour always overspend.
1:03:07 > 1:03:13John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked
1:03:13 > 1:03:18and I think we need a radical re-think.
1:03:18 > 1:03:21Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:21 > 1:03:22No one.
1:03:22 > 1:03:24Why?
1:03:24 > 1:03:30Because they never come up trumps with anything that they
1:03:30 > 1:03:31reckon they're going to do.
1:03:31 > 1:03:33If I had to make you choose one of them?
1:03:33 > 1:03:35The man that's there, Hammond.
1:03:35 > 1:03:37I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a
1:03:37 > 1:03:42bag of marbles or a plastic ball!
1:03:42 > 1:03:43Hello, Bob.
1:03:43 > 1:03:45Oh, hello.
1:03:45 > 1:03:46Who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:46 > 1:03:47Oh, the Conservatives.
1:03:47 > 1:03:49Do you? Why's that?
1:03:49 > 1:03:52I just think they're better for the small businessman.
1:03:52 > 1:03:54We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,
1:03:54 > 1:03:57somebody in there with balls to say, right,
1:03:57 > 1:03:58that's the direction we are
1:03:58 > 1:04:00going in, that's what we are going to do.
1:04:00 > 1:04:02I've got balls!
1:04:02 > 1:04:04What are you doing?
1:04:04 > 1:04:11Putting balls in holes by the look of it!
1:04:11 > 1:04:14I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,
1:04:14 > 1:04:16but I say that without a great deal of conviction.
1:04:16 > 1:04:19Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the
1:04:19 > 1:04:21streets, the strikes, the unions.
1:04:21 > 1:04:24Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money
1:04:24 > 1:04:30and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.
1:04:30 > 1:04:33I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it
1:04:33 > 1:04:37is clearing up time here at the diner and time
1:04:37 > 1:04:39to reveal the Moodbox.
1:04:39 > 1:04:40Take it away, Tim.
1:04:40 > 1:04:43As you can say it was a close-run thing, but
1:04:43 > 1:04:45like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and
1:04:45 > 1:04:52counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.
1:04:52 > 1:04:56Oh, chip, thank you very much!
1:04:56 > 1:04:58That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,
1:04:58 > 1:05:01at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.
1:05:01 > 1:05:04But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view
1:05:04 > 1:05:06the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look
1:05:06 > 1:05:08at some recent polling.
1:05:08 > 1:05:10Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back
1:05:10 > 1:05:14when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,
1:05:14 > 1:05:17when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many
1:05:17 > 1:05:18other areas.
1:05:18 > 1:05:22The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed
1:05:22 > 1:05:24the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,
1:05:24 > 1:05:29although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.
1:05:29 > 1:05:33And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,
1:05:33 > 1:05:38showing that while the gap between Theresa May
1:05:38 > 1:05:40and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election
1:05:40 > 1:05:42period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,
1:05:42 > 1:05:44still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or
1:05:44 > 1:05:45even slightly ahead.
1:05:45 > 1:05:48And when it comes to how people intend to vote
1:05:48 > 1:05:50while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a
1:05:50 > 1:05:52big Labour lead yet.
1:05:52 > 1:05:54Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"
1:05:54 > 1:05:58inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be
1:05:58 > 1:06:0110 or 15 points ahead.
1:06:01 > 1:06:04Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair
1:06:04 > 1:06:07and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely
1:06:07 > 1:06:14wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?
1:06:14 > 1:06:22Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the
1:06:22 > 1:06:27economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the
1:06:27 > 1:06:33Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds
1:06:33 > 1:06:36of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and
1:06:36 > 1:06:42imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national
1:06:42 > 1:06:45security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many
1:06:45 > 1:06:50circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it
1:06:50 > 1:06:56for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting
1:06:56 > 1:07:01and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We
1:07:01 > 1:07:08underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning
1:07:08 > 1:07:13Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The
1:07:13 > 1:07:17government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over
1:07:17 > 1:07:21resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of
1:07:21 > 1:07:24people are having a really tough time and looking at the government
1:07:24 > 1:07:29to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems
1:07:29 > 1:07:36to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.
1:07:36 > 1:07:41Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I
1:07:41 > 1:07:46think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think
1:07:46 > 1:07:49Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they
1:07:49 > 1:07:55have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn
1:07:55 > 1:08:01had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.
1:08:01 > 1:08:08They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.
1:08:08 > 1:08:12Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to
1:08:12 > 1:08:17build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think
1:08:17 > 1:08:22they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the
1:08:22 > 1:08:28next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The
1:08:28 > 1:08:31fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot
1:08:31 > 1:08:36of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they
1:08:36 > 1:08:40certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very
1:08:40 > 1:08:46well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I
1:08:46 > 1:08:51am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to
1:08:51 > 1:08:58that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy
1:08:58 > 1:09:06Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy
1:09:06 > 1:09:09Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn
1:09:09 > 1:09:15to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,
1:09:15 > 1:09:19despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has
1:09:19 > 1:09:26the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have
1:09:26 > 1:09:32just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that
1:09:32 > 1:09:36Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave
1:09:36 > 1:09:43Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed
1:09:43 > 1:09:49people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have
1:09:49 > 1:09:53to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context
1:09:53 > 1:10:01of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future
1:10:01 > 1:10:12unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,
1:10:12 > 1:10:17unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that
1:10:17 > 1:10:22against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think
1:10:22 > 1:10:25about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,
1:10:25 > 1:10:29they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they
1:10:29 > 1:10:34have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop
1:10:34 > 1:10:41a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also
1:10:41 > 1:10:44this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be
1:10:44 > 1:10:50talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to
1:10:50 > 1:10:53you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be
1:10:53 > 1:10:59the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so
1:10:59 > 1:11:02ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.
1:11:02 > 1:11:07They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they
1:11:07 > 1:11:12offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December
1:11:12 > 1:11:16council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in
1:11:16 > 1:11:21conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get
1:11:21 > 1:11:26that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he
1:11:26 > 1:11:29revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a
1:11:29 > 1:11:39more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers
1:11:39 > 1:11:44as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to
1:11:44 > 1:11:52keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce
1:11:52 > 1:11:58Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested
1:11:58 > 1:12:05that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's
1:12:05 > 1:12:09another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime
1:12:09 > 1:12:14Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A
1:12:14 > 1:12:18strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where
1:12:18 > 1:12:24we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the
1:12:24 > 1:12:28European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on
1:12:28 > 1:12:41it until we are satisfied with the next
1:12:47 > 1:12:50stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who
1:12:50 > 1:12:52could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that
1:12:52 > 1:12:55might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have
1:12:55 > 1:12:57not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the
1:12:57 > 1:13:00astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is
1:13:00 > 1:13:04going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the
1:13:04 > 1:13:08negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in
1:13:08 > 1:13:11terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will
1:13:11 > 1:13:17look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,
1:13:17 > 1:13:22but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet
1:13:22 > 1:13:26Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each
1:13:26 > 1:13:31other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.
1:13:31 > 1:13:32That's all for today.
1:13:32 > 1:13:35Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.
1:13:35 > 1:13:38Until then, bye bye.
1:14:04 > 1:14:05The Chancellor's budget is coming.