:00:41. > :00:47.Good morning, and welcome, so, the American presidential race enters
:00:47. > :00:50.its final phase, going right down to the wire, and a sensational poll
:00:50. > :00:57.reporting this morning shows Barack Obama is piling up ten-times as
:00:57. > :00:59.many votes as Mitt Romney, 70% against just 7% for the Mormon
:00:59. > :01:04.republican. Sadly for President Obama this is a poll of British
:01:04. > :01:09.voters, none of whom can actually vote. Lots of US coverage in
:01:09. > :01:16.today's British Sundays, and to ransack them, two shrewd and
:01:16. > :01:19.experienced pairs of hands, the former Conservative minister turned
:01:19. > :01:22.broadcaster, Michael Portillo and Labour lawyer and peer, Helena
:01:22. > :01:26.Kennedy. We will talk more about Obama against Romney later on, with
:01:26. > :01:31.a leading pollster, Sir Bob Worcester, and a prominent
:01:31. > :01:34.Republican, Colleen Graffy, living here in the UK. For others what our
:01:34. > :01:39.Government is doing matters more, one of the most controversial
:01:39. > :01:44.changes coming up is over welfare, a cap on how much any household can
:01:44. > :01:46.get, and a suggestion that child benefits should be reduced to two
:01:46. > :01:50.children, and questions over whether better off people should be
:01:50. > :01:54.getting things like winter fuel and transport. Iain Duncan Smith is on
:01:54. > :01:57.a personal crusade to get more people working and to cut the
:01:57. > :02:00.Welfare Bill. He joins me this morning. We will be talking about
:02:00. > :02:05.law and order, immigration, and those police commissioner elections.
:02:05. > :02:09.Will you vote? Did you even know about them? With the shadow Home
:02:09. > :02:13.Secretary, Yvette Cooper, on a day where a survey shows what is a
:02:13. > :02:19.national crisis of morale among police officers. So, lots of nit, a
:02:19. > :02:22.bit of grit ahead, let's kick off as we do with the news.
:02:22. > :02:27.Good morning. The US presidential candidates have been addressing
:02:27. > :02:31.large crowds ahead of Tuesday's election, with polls showing Barack
:02:31. > :02:38.Obama and Mitt Romney virtually neck and neck. The two men are
:02:38. > :02:41.focusing on their efforts on voters in key swing states.
:02:41. > :02:45.The President of the United States, Mitt Romney! With three days to go
:02:45. > :02:49.t the candidates have launched a frantic dash to win undecided
:02:49. > :02:53.voters. Change is the mantra, President Obama saying he needs
:02:53. > :02:57.another four years to achieve it. And governor Romney claiming's the
:02:57. > :03:05.only one with the track record for delivering it. Giving more power to
:03:05. > :03:09.the biggest banks, that is not change. Another $5 trillion tax cut
:03:09. > :03:12.to the wealthiest Americans, that is not change. Refusing to answer
:03:12. > :03:14.details about your policies until after the election, that is
:03:14. > :03:19.definitely not change. We have got to change course, because unless we
:03:19. > :03:23.do, we may be looking at another recession. The question of this
:03:23. > :03:28.election comes down to this, do you want more of the same, or do you
:03:28. > :03:32.want real change? The latest polls show how most of the country is
:03:32. > :03:36.likely to vote. Leaving the candidates to focus on these
:03:36. > :03:40.critical swing states that could still go either way. President
:03:40. > :03:44.Obama started Saturday in Ohio, moved to Wisconsin, and Iowa, and
:03:44. > :03:48.ended the night in Virginia. Governor Romney went from New
:03:48. > :03:52.Hampshire to Iowa, and had two stops in Colorado, where most
:03:52. > :03:57.people are expected to vote early. The economy is still the most
:03:57. > :04:01.important issue of the election, so the sudden appearance of the
:04:01. > :04:07.puppets from Sesame Street was surprising. They were protesting
:04:07. > :04:11.against Gor nor Romney's pledge to cut funding to public funding to
:04:11. > :04:14.broadcasters. Whether the Muppets will influence voters, like
:04:14. > :04:18.anything else in this race, remain unclear.
:04:18. > :04:24.New York's mayor has said it could take several days before power
:04:24. > :04:27.supplies return to normal in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. Although
:04:27. > :04:33.electricity has been returned to most of Manhattan, other parts of
:04:33. > :04:38.the city are still in the dark. The mayor has criticised Long Island's
:04:38. > :04:43.power and utilities companies saying it hasn't done enough to
:04:43. > :04:49.restore power. There are allegations that a senior
:04:49. > :04:53.Tory was involved in paedophile- ring three decades ago. During the
:04:53. > :04:57.1970s hundreds of children were abused in former care homes in
:04:57. > :05:01.South Wales. It was thought a group of people were protected by each
:05:01. > :05:06.other to allow the abuse to continue. Rebel forces are thought
:05:06. > :05:11.to be in control in Damascus, and the Government has eye tacked them.
:05:11. > :05:21.It comes ahead of a crucial meeting about how to form a united front
:05:21. > :05:23.
:05:23. > :05:27.against President Assad sad. The extent of the attack against
:05:27. > :05:30.the Taftanaz abase near Aleppo is unclear. Some feel it is the start
:05:30. > :05:33.of a determined approach to take control of the base. Other reports
:05:33. > :05:38.suggest the rebels withdrew after six hours, claiming they had
:05:38. > :05:44.destroyed two helicopters. Whatever the truth, Washington believes the
:05:44. > :05:46.fight against President Assad is being hampered by a fragmented,
:05:46. > :05:50.unrepresentative opposition. US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton,
:05:50. > :05:54.says the Syrian National Council can no longer be regarded as the
:05:54. > :06:02.true voice of the opposition. That's a claim strongly denied by
:06:02. > :06:05.its President, speak anything Turkey. TRANSLATION: -- speaking in
:06:05. > :06:09.Turkey. TRANSLATION: Only the people of Syria can decide who
:06:09. > :06:12.represents them and who doesn't, we are Syrian and in this together.
:06:12. > :06:18.The US says the opposition needs to represent more of those who are
:06:18. > :06:21.fighting and dying on the ground. There are plenty of those.
:06:21. > :06:26.This unverified video is said to show the result of a Government air
:06:26. > :06:30.attack on the town of Binish, with Government forces able to bomb at
:06:30. > :06:36.will from the air, it shows why the rebels are so keen to attack
:06:36. > :06:39.Assad's airfields. David Cameron is facing fresh
:06:39. > :06:43.embarrassment over text messages sent to the former News
:06:43. > :06:46.International boss, Rebekah Brooks. In one message, obtained by The
:06:46. > :06:50.Mail on Sunday, the Prime Minister thanked Mrs Brooks for letting him
:06:50. > :06:54.ride one of her force, joking it was fast, unpredictable, and hard
:06:55. > :06:58.to control and fun. Rebekah Brooks and her husband are among those
:06:58. > :07:02.facing trial in the phone hacking scandal. That is all for me, I will
:07:02. > :07:06.be back with the headlines before 10.00am. Back to Andrew.
:07:06. > :07:11.We will talk about a lot of those stories, I suspect, in the paper
:07:11. > :07:15.review. The front page, we have the Sunday Telemachus talking about
:07:15. > :07:20.this forth -- Sunday Telegraph talking about this forth
:07:20. > :07:24.coming EU leaders meeting over cash. The Observer has an interesting
:07:24. > :07:28.story here, saying both Milliband brothers, Ed and David are uniting
:07:28. > :07:31.to urge that there should be a living wage, that is considerably
:07:31. > :07:36.higher than the minimum wage. There is questions about how they would
:07:36. > :07:44.implement it in power. The Independent on Sunday here, like a
:07:44. > :07:51.lot of papsers, is focusing on -- papers is focusing on the American
:07:51. > :07:55.elections, the longest, gaudiest and sillyist on record it says. The
:07:55. > :08:03.Mail has Cameron's horseplay texts with Rebekah Brooks, they are not
:08:03. > :08:12.as salacious as some are saying. The Sunday Mirror has a story about
:08:12. > :08:14.the Downing Streeten to star, Maggie being rush -- Downton star
:08:14. > :08:19.Maggie Smith being rushed to hospital.
:08:19. > :08:24.What have you found in the papers? The Independent has a whole story
:08:24. > :08:29.about the elections, a nation on the edge. There is a very
:08:29. > :08:35.interesting piece in the Independent by Rupert Conwell, a
:08:35. > :08:39.very good journalist, analysing this election, and analysing how
:08:39. > :08:44.long and silly it is, but how it is one of the most important elections
:08:44. > :08:51.there could be. It does go to the heart of the values of Americans.
:08:51. > :08:55.Are they really just going to vote for self-interest, in terms of
:08:55. > :08:59.Romney? Who at one stage I thought wasn't a contender, or Obama.
:08:59. > :09:05.Although it is looking as though it could be Obama, it is very, very
:09:05. > :09:12.tight. It really is an important election, because this will be a
:09:12. > :09:15.veering to the right in a serious way, yet again. Michael? Well, the
:09:15. > :09:19.Sunday Times still on the American election, and a nation ready to
:09:19. > :09:24.rise again, it says. This is on a report that the United States will
:09:24. > :09:29.grow by 3% next yoo, by comparison with other western economies, and
:09:29. > :09:33.Europe, this is -- year, by comparison with other western
:09:33. > :09:37.economies and Europe this is great for whoever is elected on Tuesday
:09:37. > :09:39.night. I was interested in this piece here, talking about the
:09:39. > :09:44.aftermath of the flood, it is saying the lights are on but the
:09:44. > :09:49.mood is dark. It is 48 hours before the Americans will cast their
:09:49. > :09:54.involvement and it looks like the rescue is not goings withle as
:09:54. > :09:58.first thought. A lot feel abandoned, the Red Cross isn't in, power
:09:58. > :10:03.supplies are still out, and they are fighting for gasoline, as they
:10:04. > :10:08.call it. I wonder in the last hours there will be some revulsion, that
:10:08. > :10:11.the President is back on the campaign trail, he did his thing
:10:11. > :10:15.with the governor giving him a hug, and he's back on the campaign trail,
:10:15. > :10:19.and a lot of Americans are saying they are being abandoned. Very
:10:19. > :10:23.shrewd analysis by the Sunday Telegraph of this story? It looked
:10:23. > :10:27.as if it had been a good storm for Obama, and he was up. But it is
:10:28. > :10:31.right that it could actually, in the long-term, not work to his
:10:31. > :10:35.benefit. Long-term being 48 hours! As he gets to the edge. Anyone who
:10:35. > :10:39.says they know what is going to happen is a fool at this point?
:10:39. > :10:44.holding my breath. No-one knows, but somebody said to me, 2008 was
:10:44. > :10:47.the election to lose, because of the financial crisis this is an
:10:47. > :10:52.election to win? This is obviously an election to win. The economy
:10:52. > :10:56.looks a if it will go gang Buster, the Sunday Times reveals things I
:10:56. > :10:59.hadn't taken in, that the Stock Exchange has doubled its values
:10:59. > :11:02.under Obama, and corporate profits are now at a record high. And the
:11:02. > :11:05.people who have got most of the fiscal boost are the people right
:11:05. > :11:08.at the top? That is right, the average American has seen no
:11:08. > :11:11.increase in his or her living standards.S That the interesting
:11:11. > :11:14.thing, those things around the economy, that is why it has been
:11:14. > :11:20.such a silly election, the stories have not been well told. Obama
:11:20. > :11:23.hasn't told his story well, but also there has been a really
:11:23. > :11:27.mendacious campaign by Romney, the lies have been repeated. I have to
:11:27. > :11:30.say something on behalf of Romney here, even just for BBC balance!
:11:30. > :11:37.Romney is the man who believes in smaller Government. America
:11:37. > :11:41.believes in smaller Government. I think that Obama is still at risk,
:11:41. > :11:45.because basically, he is a big Government quasi-socialist, in a
:11:45. > :11:51.country that is almost defined by its belief in small Government.
:11:51. > :11:55.I can say, it is very interesting that the Mayor of New York, an old
:11:55. > :12:00.fashioned Republican, has come out for Obama. Right, well, we will
:12:00. > :12:05.hold hour breath on that, and see what happens. Let's turn to a more
:12:05. > :12:09.local story, one that we mentioned in -- hold our breath on that, and
:12:09. > :12:13.let's see what happens. Let's turn to more local news, the texts?
:12:13. > :12:19.don't really amount to much, there is nothing terribly new in them as
:12:19. > :12:22.far as I can see, that doesn't just show the close proximity of the
:12:22. > :12:26.Rebekah Brooks and the friendship of the Brooks couple with the Prime
:12:26. > :12:30.Minister. But what it tells you, what is interesting for me, and she
:12:30. > :12:36.talks about how great it will be, "we will love working together", it
:12:36. > :12:39.is as if she's in Downing Street. She said she cried twice during
:12:39. > :12:42.Cameron's speech, which is impressive, I suppose! Looking back
:12:42. > :12:47.to the time, it must have seen to David Cameron as a gift from heaven,
:12:47. > :12:50.that he had been at school with this lady's husband, and she was in
:12:50. > :12:54.this key position in the Murdoch empire, and the Tories, after so
:12:55. > :12:58.many years in the wildness, had this inside track on the Murdoch
:12:58. > :13:02.empire. Now it is the kiss of death! What is interesting to me is
:13:02. > :13:06.it is a return to the front page of the stuff that led to Leveson. That
:13:06. > :13:10.has disappeared over the last few weeks. It has been the BBC that has
:13:10. > :13:16.been in the firing lines. And the print media has loved it. Because
:13:16. > :13:21.it has taken the heat afrom them over Leveson. But Leveson is back
:13:21. > :13:24.in the papers again. Quite a lot of papers are campaigning shoulder-to-
:13:24. > :13:29.shoulder ahead of the Leveson thing against regulation? That is what is
:13:29. > :13:32.worrying, there is a backlash, and now a campaign, basically, taking
:13:32. > :13:38.place, to prevent any kind of regular laying. It is about back to
:13:38. > :13:45.business as usual for the press, and -- regulation, and it is about
:13:45. > :13:50.back to business as usual for the press. What else in the Sunday
:13:50. > :13:53.Telegraph? Maria Miller, she's the one promoted to be the Culture
:13:53. > :13:57.Secretary. Many might not have known much about her until she took
:13:57. > :14:02.on this position. This article reviews how much is on her plate.
:14:02. > :14:07.The BBC, with the Jimmy Savile inquiries, Leveson is in her domain,
:14:07. > :14:11.apparently, because she's also the minister for Women's Equality, it
:14:11. > :14:15.falls to her to look at the issue of gay marriage. And some what
:14:15. > :14:18.further down the pecking order, she has also got to deal with the
:14:18. > :14:23.Olympic stadium, and what may be its future, whether with West Ham
:14:23. > :14:27.United or some other tenant. So for a lady who is not very well known,
:14:27. > :14:30.and not hugely experienced in frontline politics, this is really
:14:30. > :14:34.a very large series of issues that have been served up to her. Of
:14:34. > :14:40.course, one has to say they are so important, that on most of them, it
:14:40. > :14:50.is inconceivable she could step without the Prime Minister being
:14:50. > :14:58.absolutely axe questions sent. -- aquiesent. I thought she was
:14:58. > :15:04.incautious in the statement about Jimmy Savile, she was repuked by Mr
:15:04. > :15:07.Patten. And I think no politician would be prejudging it. They were
:15:07. > :15:13.hoping she would say she's a against statutory regulation, and
:15:13. > :15:16.she isn't saying that. The ministry, that was all seen an unimportant
:15:16. > :15:19.ministry, dealing with culture, is up there with some of the key
:15:19. > :15:26.issues of the day. It has become incredibly important. We talked
:15:26. > :15:30.about Savile a moment ago, the Express has a story not discussing
:15:30. > :15:33.any names? A double-page spread I picked here, on the right hand it
:15:33. > :15:39.is alleged that Jimmy Savile's Rolls-Royce, which unfortunately
:15:39. > :15:43.appear to have been the scene of some of his abuse. But these Rolls-
:15:43. > :15:51.Royces were given to him by the BBC in lieu of pay. We are talking
:15:51. > :15:54.about a period when the tax rate of 98%, 83% on earned income, 98% on
:15:54. > :15:59.unearned income. It is alleged he was paid in Rolls-Royces in order
:15:59. > :16:05.to avoid the tax. Astonishing, isn't it. A rather nice conflation
:16:05. > :16:10.of two of the BBC issues, one child abuse u and then how it pays some
:16:10. > :16:14.of the senior people. It goes back a long way, I thought the business
:16:14. > :16:21.of playing around with how people are paid was a new invention, but
:16:21. > :16:26.clearly not of the Obviously -- Clearly not. Obviously, this story
:16:26. > :16:30.came out on Newsnight, Measham measure, who was a boy in one of
:16:30. > :16:34.these institutions in North Wales, and who claims, not only that he
:16:34. > :16:38.was abused, but that during the inquiry, which was called the
:16:38. > :16:43.Waterhouse inquiry, he was disallowed on giving evidence on
:16:43. > :16:47.abuse that occurred to him outside the home where he was
:16:47. > :16:50.institutionalised. And he says he was taken to a hotel and repeatedly
:16:50. > :16:54.raped there, and one of the people involved was a senior Tory
:16:54. > :16:57.associated with the Thatcher Government. I mention it
:16:57. > :17:02.particularly because Maria Miller has called upon the BBC to be
:17:02. > :17:04.transparent and get to the root of everything that has happened in the
:17:04. > :17:08.BBC. Naturally David Cameron will have to put himself in a similar
:17:08. > :17:12.decision. He will have to say he wants to get to the root of
:17:13. > :17:17.whatever may have happened. Not institutionally with the
:17:17. > :17:21.Conservative Party, but whatever it was that may have happened with the
:17:21. > :17:25.senior Conservative. Part of this is, it is so interesting to me that
:17:25. > :17:28.the Waterhouse Inquiry, you know, the remit was drawn up in a way,
:17:28. > :17:35.that constrained looking beyond what happened inside children's
:17:35. > :17:40.homes. Terrible. But it is one of those slights of hand that take
:17:40. > :17:50.place with public inquiries, you draw up the rules of the game in
:17:50. > :17:53.
:17:53. > :17:59.such a way that a real inquiry never takes place. Let get on to
:17:59. > :18:02.the Europe story? The papers dig around about what happens in the
:18:02. > :18:07.rebellion last week where the Government was defeateded on the
:18:07. > :18:09.approach to the European budget. A couple of stories, one is that
:18:09. > :18:15.there was collusion between Conservative rebels and people
:18:15. > :18:20.working for Ed Balls. There is a surprise! Another, that a cabinet
:18:20. > :18:25.minister was tempted to resign during the course of all of this. I
:18:25. > :18:29.personally, as someone who was once in politics, find all this analysis
:18:29. > :18:32.at the weekend rather fascinating about what was actually going on,
:18:32. > :18:37.and the shenanigans going on. all talk about Westminster about
:18:37. > :18:42.that in the days since the vote, as you know. You have been plunging
:18:42. > :18:46.deep into the European issue, or at least into Europe itself, Michael,
:18:46. > :18:50.one of your great railway journeys? I have a series beginning this week
:18:50. > :18:55.of great continental railway journeys, for the first time to the
:18:55. > :19:00.continent, using a 1913 guide, so I'm looking at Europe on the eve of
:19:00. > :19:06.World War I, that Europe of empires is about to be swept away. Here is
:19:06. > :19:16.a taster. I can actually see into everybody's window and house!
:19:16. > :19:18.
:19:18. > :19:24.Sample local cuisine, when on the Ryan, it is just as Ryan landers do.
:19:24. > :19:29.-- Rhine, it is just as Rhinelanders do! He has a new
:19:30. > :19:33.collection of jackets. It is great jacket. It is It is a unique
:19:33. > :19:40.telling opposition. We make them in the summer for the winter to cheer
:19:40. > :19:46.people up. We do need cheering up. Although it is lovely weather
:19:46. > :19:52.yesterday, I made a train journey up to newle, I'm worried about the
:19:52. > :19:55.-- Newcastle, I'm worrying it might be rather wet for barbecuing would-
:19:55. > :20:02.be rather wet for barbecuing would- be arsonists. Now the weather.
:20:02. > :20:08.A real he can electic mix of weather across the -- electic mix
:20:08. > :20:12.of weather across the country. You have the sunshine, wet and windy
:20:12. > :20:18.weather, intense rainfall has been falling along the south coast, on
:20:18. > :20:24.the back edge of that we have seen snowfalling and settling at lower
:20:24. > :20:27.levels. It will continue to drift steadily east. Elsewhere showers
:20:27. > :20:30.dying back to the north and west- facing coast. Sunny spells coming
:20:30. > :20:34.through. That rain will left-wing air cross East Anglia through the
:20:34. > :20:39.afternoon. But it is an improving picture, despite cloudy skies
:20:39. > :20:42.through the Midlands and Wales throughout the day. Temperatures
:20:42. > :20:48.disappointing. We might scrape a double figure into the far south-
:20:48. > :20:52.west. If your firework display is this evening it won't be too bad,
:20:52. > :20:59.clear skies, and largely dry, showery rain towards South Wales
:20:59. > :21:04.and Bristol. For Monday that cloud and showers starts to Eastmond away.
:21:04. > :21:14.A quiet start to the working week. In terms of feel of things, it will
:21:14. > :21:17.
:21:17. > :21:24.We are ten days away from voting for the new comiem commissioners in
:21:24. > :21:29.England and Wales. To give them a greater say over the police. Labour
:21:29. > :21:34.were against the policy from the start, but how would the party's
:21:34. > :21:39.approach to crime differ. I'm joined by the shadow secretary,
:21:39. > :21:42.Yvette Cooper. A lot of people will be barely aware they are happening.
:21:42. > :21:45.One poll suggests only 15% of people will vote? This is a real
:21:45. > :21:49.problem. The Government has chosen to hold these elections in November,
:21:49. > :21:52.we have just had the weather forecast, you have seen the
:21:52. > :21:59.terrible weather today. That is making it harder for people to go
:21:59. > :22:04.out and vote. I also think that they have made a thamable of this,
:22:04. > :22:07.for -- shambles of this, for a flagship policy, most people don't
:22:07. > :22:12.know what the elections are for. I'm worried about what turnout will
:22:12. > :22:15.be as a result of this. And yet the principle of saying to every local
:22:15. > :22:20.community, direct democracy, you get a say in how you are going to
:22:20. > :22:23.be policed. What is wrong with that? That seems a very straight
:22:23. > :22:27.forward, sensible idea of the kind that the Labour Party would have
:22:27. > :22:30.once backed? We opposed this going through parliament. For example, we
:22:30. > :22:33.thought that the �100 million that the Government is spending on the
:22:33. > :22:36.elections could have been spent on about 3,000 police officers instead.
:22:36. > :22:41.We thought that was a better use of the money. We also thought that
:22:41. > :22:44.there should be more checks and balances in the system, because to
:22:44. > :22:48.invest one person with a huge amount of policing power, we
:22:48. > :22:51.thought, was not the right way to approach policing and the
:22:51. > :22:54.traditions of policing we have. Obviously the Government has
:22:54. > :22:58.decided to go ahead with this, so we are doing our best to make it
:22:58. > :23:03.work. But I do think that the Government needs to be doing much
:23:03. > :23:08.more. You set up what is called an independent inquiry, you set it up
:23:08. > :23:11.with Lord Stephens, former copper, heading it into police pay and
:23:12. > :23:16.morale and all the issues around policing. Not sur pryingly he has
:23:16. > :23:21.come back with a report saying that the police are absolutely
:23:21. > :23:27.infuriated, low morale and all the rest of it. But probably, if you
:23:27. > :23:31.set a policeman to look at policemen's morale, he will come
:23:31. > :23:35.back and say the Government isn't doing what it should The survey
:23:35. > :23:38.produced is troubling. We know there are 15,000 police officers
:23:38. > :23:41.being cut as a result of the Government's decision, we know that
:23:41. > :23:44.over 7,000 have come off the frontline. The most visible police
:23:44. > :23:48.of all, things like the neighbourhood police, the 999
:23:48. > :23:52.response teams and so on. Again, already going. So you are asking
:23:52. > :23:58.police to do even more, and of course, we need them to go into the
:23:58. > :24:02.most difficult situations, and what Lord Stevens is saying he has never
:24:02. > :24:04.seen survey results like this, when 95% of police officers are saying
:24:04. > :24:09.they don't think they have the support of the coalition Government.
:24:09. > :24:13.I think only 0.1% said they thought they had a great deal of support.
:24:13. > :24:18.That is not a good situation for the morale of the police to be in.
:24:18. > :24:22.In Government, if you were in Government you would be cutting the
:24:22. > :24:26.police budgets too, 12% rather than 20%, that is pretty substantial,
:24:26. > :24:28.nonetheless. When it comes to things like freezing police pay and
:24:28. > :24:34.pensions, cutting down on the number of police, what would you
:24:34. > :24:37.actually be doing? We set out, we did some work before the 2010
:24:37. > :24:40.election, Alan Johnson did work in the Home Office, this was also, I
:24:40. > :24:45.think, supported by some of the work that the independent
:24:45. > :24:49.inspectorate said as well, to look at how you could deliver, they said
:24:49. > :24:53.around 12%, which works about �1 billion of savings over the course
:24:53. > :24:56.of parliament. What the Government has gone for instead is going for
:24:56. > :25:00.�2 billion. That is the difference you are talking about. Of course it
:25:00. > :25:04.does mean constraints on pay, and long-term reforms to public sector
:25:04. > :25:07.pensions, not just for policing but across the board. And it also means
:25:07. > :25:11.looking at different ways of getting savings out of the
:25:11. > :25:16.contracts and the procurement that the police do. An awful lot of
:25:16. > :25:18.people may say, listen, the police are the last big unreformed public
:25:18. > :25:22.institution. Tony Blair, when he was Prime Minister, after he had
:25:22. > :25:26.become Prime Minister, said he regreted not dealing with this
:25:26. > :25:29.before. Actually, in opposition you are taking some easy, soft options,
:25:29. > :25:33.you are supporting the police when it is popular, and here we have a
:25:33. > :25:36.Government, whatever you think of it, they are trying to put in major
:25:36. > :25:41.reform, they are trying to change things. Are you really going to be
:25:41. > :25:44.a reforming party in opposition, or in Government? Look at some of the
:25:44. > :25:48.reforms we did while in Government. They were extremely important on
:25:48. > :25:50.police. First of all, requiring the police to work in partnership with
:25:50. > :25:54.local council, with other organisations, health organisations
:25:54. > :25:59.and so on. To prevent crime, not simply to work in isolation. That
:25:59. > :26:02.made a huge difference. That was a big part of bringing crime down by
:26:02. > :26:04.40%. We also introduced neighbourhood police, it wasn't
:26:04. > :26:08.popular with the police at the time, a really important way of getting
:26:08. > :26:11.the police back on the sthreets. You are right that we need re--
:26:11. > :26:17.streets. You are right that we need reforms for the future, that is why
:26:17. > :26:20.we set up the Stevens Commission, he's working with criminologyists
:26:20. > :26:24.across the country and international experts as well.
:26:24. > :26:28.Let's turn to other issues, immigration, a huge issue, Labour
:26:28. > :26:31.got it completely wrong when it came to the numbers of people
:26:31. > :26:35.coming here from European Eastern Europe when there was the accession
:26:35. > :26:38.is. There are two more countries, Bulgaria and Romania, who don't
:26:38. > :26:42.have free movement. The Government have said it would be good to look
:26:42. > :26:46.at the possibility of extending that ban on free movement for those
:26:46. > :26:50.countries for another few years. Do you agree with that? That is what
:26:50. > :26:54.we have supported previously as well. You agree with that. When it
:26:54. > :26:59.comes to the general issue of Europe, a lot of people, very
:26:59. > :27:03.surprised in a sense, to see Labour standing shoulder-to-shoulder with
:27:03. > :27:07.the euro-sceptic Tory rebels, has the Labour Party become a euro-
:27:07. > :27:11.sceptic party? No, I think if you believe in Europe and the value to
:27:11. > :27:16.Britain of being able to export so many goods to Europe, be part of
:27:16. > :27:20.that European market, you also have to make Europe credible. I don't
:27:20. > :27:23.think it is credible. This was parliamentary gains was it? I don't
:27:23. > :27:25.think it is credible to people in Britain or across the rest of
:27:25. > :27:32.Europe, to have an increasing EU budget at a time when everything
:27:32. > :27:37.else is being squeezed. Even though ...I Don't think it is an argument
:27:37. > :27:41.to say the EU budget ought to be cut at a time like this to use the
:27:41. > :27:45.funding, I do this it is an argument, to support local jobs and
:27:45. > :27:50.Government in their own company. Even thanks to Labour it increased
:27:50. > :27:54.enormously, by nearly 50%? discussions that took place in 2005
:27:54. > :27:57.were in a very different economic climate. The discussions have to
:27:57. > :28:00.reflect the economic climate we are in. The EU can't ignore the
:28:00. > :28:04.economic climate we are in. In order for it to show it is relevant,
:28:04. > :28:10.it has to be responsive. If David Cameron, after that difficult vote
:28:10. > :28:12.in the House of Commons, goes and has equally difficult noigss in
:28:13. > :28:16.Europe, and comes back -- negotiation in Europe, and comes
:28:16. > :28:20.back with a real-terms freeze, Labour will support him and say
:28:20. > :28:22.well done in the Commons? We have said there should be a real-terms
:28:22. > :28:27.cut, that is what we want David Cameron to go into the negotiations
:28:27. > :28:31.and argue for. He should have done the argument beforehand, it is the
:28:31. > :28:35.leadership. You call for leadership, if trying to get that cut involves
:28:35. > :28:39.threatening a veto, you would back the Prime Minister on that?
:28:39. > :28:41.problem with the approach David Cameron has taken is he goes around
:28:41. > :28:45.waving vetos without doing the spade work and talking to countries
:28:45. > :28:48.and building the all liepss. If you look at the problems -- alliances,
:28:49. > :28:51.if you like at the problems facing Europe at the moment, it
:28:51. > :28:55.desperately needs leadership. We have had no leadership from David
:28:55. > :28:58.Cameron, if you are talking about the European arrest warrant he
:28:58. > :29:01.wants to opt out, and the European budget negotiations which he has
:29:01. > :29:04.turned his back on. You have to have that engagment in the
:29:04. > :29:08.interests of Europe. Since we are talking about Labour and Europe,
:29:08. > :29:11.can you understand why Denis MacShane doing what he did on his
:29:11. > :29:19.expenses is not a criminal offence? It is very clear this was a serious
:29:19. > :29:22.report, a very serious done dem nation by the committee. I think --
:29:22. > :29:27.condemnation which by the commit -- is by the committee, and I think
:29:27. > :29:30.the police should look at this again. It is not for me to pre-empt
:29:30. > :29:32.the investigation. It is right the police look again with the
:29:32. > :29:37.possibility of a prosecution? have said they are doing that, they
:29:37. > :29:40.have to make their decisions independently. The CPS have to make
:29:40. > :29:44.their decisions independently, you wouldn't expect me to pre-empt that.
:29:44. > :29:46.Thank you very much for joining us this morning. Now then, there is a
:29:46. > :29:51.lot of information about the police commissioner elections and a full
:29:51. > :29:55.list of all the candidates standing in 41 police force areas on the BBC
:29:55. > :30:00.News website. Type in "police elections" into the
:30:00. > :30:03.search box and be, up to a point, enlightened! Now to the US election,
:30:03. > :30:07.in a moment I will be discussing the state of play with two people
:30:07. > :30:11.following events closely from this side of the pond, the polling
:30:11. > :30:15.export, Sir Bob Worcester, former vice chairman of Democrats abroad,
:30:15. > :30:20.and Colleen Graffy, a prominent Republican who served in the Bush
:30:20. > :30:22.administration. First we have our thoughts on the final phase of the
:30:22. > :30:25.extraordinary campaign. People are coming out of the
:30:25. > :30:29.polling station having voted, what you thought the election was on
:30:29. > :30:32.Tuesday, of course it is, but early voting is becoming increasingly
:30:32. > :30:36.important here. Both parties really encourage it, it means they can get
:30:36. > :30:40.their supporters in the bag before the big day. But the candidates are
:30:40. > :30:44.still out and about criss-crossing this vast country, aiming at eight
:30:44. > :30:48.particular swing states, marginals as we would call them. This is what
:30:48. > :30:55.Mitt Romney doing today, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Virginia. President
:30:55. > :30:58.Obama is going to had you Hampshire, Florida and finishing up in Ohio.
:30:58. > :31:01.Always Ohio, nobody has won the White House for decades without
:31:01. > :31:06.winning this state. It looks as though President Obama is ahead in
:31:06. > :31:08.the swing states. Where as Mitt Romney has an edge in some of the
:31:08. > :31:12.national poll. Of course this election has been about what
:31:13. > :31:17.elections are often about, in modern democracies, about taxation,
:31:17. > :31:21.and cuts, and spending and welfare. But here, where as in Britain it is
:31:21. > :31:26.portrayed as a bit of a balance, what's the mix. Here it is being
:31:26. > :31:31.portrayed as two vision, two stark choices for America. And that is
:31:31. > :31:35.the way it will go to the end. It will go up until the wire, more and
:31:35. > :31:42.more spectacular with more music, and that sort of thing. We really
:31:42. > :31:49.can't say how it will turn out. Mark Mardell who has a fascinating
:31:49. > :31:52.48 hours ahead of him. I'm joined by my guests, Sir Bob Worcester,
:31:52. > :31:55.and Colleen Graffy. I said starkly at the beginning of the programme
:31:55. > :32:03.that anyone who wanted to call this election is completely crackers,
:32:03. > :32:09.fair or not? Very fair, because on the 14th of January our polls had
:32:09. > :32:13.48-45 to Romney, 46 plus or minus one, today, what do we have, 47
:32:13. > :32:20.plus or minus one, even pegging. In the key states, as well, they are
:32:20. > :32:24.within two points of each other. look at the point that David
:32:24. > :32:30.Axelrod Obama's chief lobbyist, not that he would shave off his
:32:30. > :32:34.moustache if Obama lost, but if he lost Minnesota, Michigan and
:32:34. > :32:38.Pennsylvania, he's not prepared to put his moustache where his mouth
:32:38. > :32:43.are. But the punters are, the money is overwhelmingly on Obama to win
:32:43. > :32:49.by 4-1, as of yesterday. The money is being bet in the United States.
:32:49. > :32:53.They are gamblers. Absolutely. What do they know that we don't know.
:32:54. > :32:58.was over there recently looking at why Obama is struggling so much,
:32:58. > :33:03.and a lot of that is the economics. How much of it is simply that the
:33:03. > :33:07.vast majority of middle-class Americans feel poorer? Yeah, it is
:33:07. > :33:13.jobs, it is economy, and deficit. Those are the three key big issues.
:33:13. > :33:18.Until we drill down into some of these 107 counties that are neck
:33:18. > :33:22.and neck, and that is what it will come down to, it makes it a very
:33:22. > :33:26.exciting election. In terms of all the election you have been
:33:26. > :33:30.following, Bob, for many, many years, how does this rate for
:33:30. > :33:35.vitriol, and the neck and neckness of it, if I can put it like that?
:33:35. > :33:42.It is unique, there hasn't been anything like it in the United
:33:42. > :33:46.States, although 1970 came close. We always say the Americans are
:33:46. > :33:50.more polarised than before, a lot of Americans call themselves
:33:50. > :33:54.independents these days? It is down to 13% who say they are
:33:54. > :33:57.independents, I have seen it above 20 in the past. The country is
:33:57. > :34:03.split in all sorts of ways. The Congress and the President are
:34:03. > :34:07.split. The whites and backs are politic split. The whites would
:34:07. > :34:11.overwhelmingly elect Romney, the blacks, potentially 12%, but
:34:11. > :34:15.turnout is key, of those blacks who are not, and do not have a high
:34:15. > :34:25.tendency of voting. And if they don't get the black vote out, and
:34:25. > :34:26.
:34:26. > :34:30.the Hispanic vote out, where it is 2-1, it is 864%-0 virtually -- 84%-
:34:30. > :34:34.0 for that. Everyone is doing the maths in a different way,
:34:34. > :34:38.independents are coming out double digits for Romney, if they come out
:34:38. > :34:42.to vote. Everything comes down to on the day. One of the
:34:42. > :34:47.extraordinary possible outcomes we are told about, is Romney could win
:34:47. > :34:53.the presidency, and Biden for the Democrats, because of the dead-heat,
:34:53. > :34:57.could be Vice President. It could be 269-269, if the Electoral
:34:57. > :35:01.College vote is tied it goes to the House to elect the President, and
:35:01. > :35:06.the Senate to elect the Vice President, so we could have a
:35:06. > :35:09.Romney-Biden. Very unlikely. The other scenario is Romney would win
:35:09. > :35:12.the popular vote and Obama the Electoral College, that would be,
:35:12. > :35:16.first of all, it would be highly, it would be ironic, because, of
:35:16. > :35:22.course the Democrats have complained when Bush did the same
:35:22. > :35:26.in 200, even worse, is there has never been an incumbent President
:35:26. > :35:31.not win the popular vote and return to office. We could be back in the
:35:31. > :35:34.territory of hanging chads and American democracy, that great
:35:34. > :35:39.democracy being sniggered at around the world as a late-night crisis
:35:39. > :35:43.continues? They do take their time, and they did take their time in
:35:43. > :35:53.2000, when it went to the hanging chads, it was really not decided
:35:53. > :35:54.
:35:54. > :35:58.for about four months. It will be a long nigh. Thank you
:35:59. > :36:01.for joining us. As well as tackling welfare reform,
:36:01. > :36:04.it is a key priority. It is something of a personal mission for
:36:04. > :36:08.the cabinet minister in charge, Iain Duncan Smith. After leading
:36:08. > :36:12.the Conservatives in opposition, he spent years researching poverty and
:36:12. > :36:16.welfare dependency. He's now implementing radical plans, which
:36:16. > :36:20.he says, will make work pay. From next year a great bundle of state
:36:20. > :36:26.benefits will be replaced by a single Universal Credit the. For
:36:26. > :36:29.the first time there will be a cap on what any household with claim.
:36:29. > :36:34.Now Mr Duncan Smith wants to cap the amount of children whose
:36:34. > :36:37.parents get benefit. Practical ideas, but will they work. Iain
:36:37. > :36:42.Duncan Smith is with us now. Good morning. One of the criticisms that
:36:42. > :36:48.has been made of the new plans is that a lot of people are expected,
:36:48. > :36:52.in fact everybody is expected to do this by computer. To log on. Now
:36:53. > :36:57.there are something like eight million British people who are not
:36:57. > :37:02.on-line at the moment. Many more who are incompetent on-line. Are
:37:02. > :37:06.you not putting far too much faith in computers? Actually, no. The
:37:06. > :37:10.thing is here, first of all, what we want to do, is setting a system
:37:10. > :37:13.here that is much easier to enter. At the moment you can end up with
:37:13. > :37:18.40, 50 pages for every single application, for different benefits.
:37:18. > :37:22.There will be one application, one set of instructions, on the
:37:22. > :37:24.computer it will take you through every single requirement. First of
:37:24. > :37:27.all, the simplicity is critical, people will understand what they
:37:27. > :37:30.are getting, and they will get a summary of what they are due
:37:30. > :37:35.immediately. If you haven't got a computer or ever been on-line
:37:35. > :37:39.before, what do you do? Two or three things. We are puttinging a
:37:39. > :37:43.huge amount of access -- putting a huge amount of access devices into
:37:43. > :37:47.the job centres. We will work with groups like CAB and the councils to
:37:47. > :37:52.make sure in all of their set-ups there is access to an on-line
:37:52. > :37:56.device to get you into the system. Third, we are now already working
:37:56. > :38:00.to get, first awful, about 78% of all those people receiving benefits,
:38:00. > :38:02.they are already on-line. 48% actually do something on-line
:38:03. > :38:06.regularly we find most people are capable of going on-line. Now we
:38:06. > :38:09.have to deal with the subset of people who aren't on-line. Here is
:38:09. > :38:14.the good thing about it, we will work with them over the next four
:38:14. > :38:21.or five years to get them up to about 80% in total who use the
:38:21. > :38:27.system on-line. Because, we now know between 70%-990% of all of the
:38:27. > :38:32.jobs out there require -- 07%-90% of the jobs out there require on-
:38:32. > :38:36.line skill. So you are locked out of the labour market. To do this is
:38:36. > :38:42.a good impetuous for us to get people who are in difficulty to
:38:42. > :38:46.learn how to use computers. To freeze them, if you talk to matter
:38:46. > :38:49.that Lane-fox she says there are billions missing in the economy
:38:50. > :38:54.because people aren't on-line. We have to do this. Standing back a
:38:54. > :39:00.little bit, I said it was a personal crusade for you, at the
:39:00. > :39:03.start, a lot of people look at the number of immigrants who have come
:39:03. > :39:08.in from Eastern Europe, and working incredibly hard up and down the
:39:08. > :39:13.country, in the fields and farms, in shops, in restaurants, doing an
:39:13. > :39:18.awful lot of jobs which, once upon a time, more long-settled British
:39:18. > :39:22.families would be doing. Do you think that the welfare system has
:39:22. > :39:27.simply rotted the morale of millions of British people? Is that
:39:27. > :39:35.really what you are about? I think there has been a corrosive effect
:39:35. > :39:41.in the bottom kol of deciles, it is in pocket, most people work hard
:39:42. > :39:45.and try hard, particularly in places like London. In pockets
:39:45. > :39:50.there are two or three generations. Right now a fifth of households
:39:50. > :39:53.have no work, and two million children grow up in workless
:39:53. > :39:58.households Which means they will not have work either? They will
:39:58. > :40:02.have children and it goes on. I think of immigration as a supply
:40:02. > :40:05.and demand. The supply is out there, and in the UK, the demand is
:40:05. > :40:08.desperate, they can't get some of the British people to do the work,
:40:08. > :40:13.so they reach foreothers who can. Do you think the welfare system,
:40:13. > :40:15.generally, has been too soft for too long? I think the problem with
:40:15. > :40:20.the welfare system is it was set up to support different issues and
:40:20. > :40:23.problems, what has happened is, people have understood how to work
:40:23. > :40:27.that process, and if you grow up in a community where no-one works, it
:40:27. > :40:31.is very difficult for you to understand that work is a vital
:40:31. > :40:34.component for families' lives. Not just for money, but for sense of
:40:34. > :40:37.self-worth, children grow up in households with work, are more
:40:37. > :40:40.likely to do better, to be healthier. This is really, really
:40:40. > :40:44.important. This isn't just about getting people to pay taxes, which
:40:44. > :40:48.is often the point that is made, which is true. It is actually about
:40:48. > :40:52.changing the condition of people's lives in Britain, in pocket, in
:40:52. > :40:55.difficult areas. To get them to have a little bit of the aspiration
:40:55. > :41:00.and hope you or I would have for our children. We have talked about
:41:00. > :41:04.children a lot. One of the ideas being floated is that child-related
:41:04. > :41:07.benefits should be limited to just two children. If families have more
:41:07. > :41:13.than two children, they don't get extra money for that. Would this be
:41:13. > :41:16.something that sort of starts now, or would it be retrospective, if
:41:16. > :41:19.families have six children on benefits, you are not proposing to
:41:19. > :41:23.take money away from them? These kind of things would have to be
:41:23. > :41:27.done with the flow. As you start to apply, so if you have a large
:41:27. > :41:36.family, the next child would be considered as a third child, if you
:41:36. > :41:41.had two, the third child. About 15% of all the families have more than
:41:41. > :41:44.two children. The average is 1.8, they cluster in the bottom two
:41:44. > :41:50.decile, and at the top of the income distribution. Across the
:41:50. > :41:54.swathe of the middle. The very rich and very poor have lots of children.
:41:54. > :41:57.Most predominantly in the bottom areas. A large proportion of the
:41:57. > :42:01.majority are out of work. It is not just child benefits, if you have a
:42:01. > :42:05.larger family, you have to have a bigger house, if you have a bigger
:42:05. > :42:10.house you have to have housing benefit. In some parts of London we
:42:10. > :42:13.are paying �100,000 a year on rent for large families. It is about
:42:13. > :42:16.fair, it is fair to say those who work hard get up in the morning,
:42:16. > :42:19.cut their cloth. In other words we can only afford to have one or two
:42:19. > :42:24.children because we don't earn enough, they pay their tax, and
:42:24. > :42:27.they want to know that the same kind of decision making is taking
:42:27. > :42:30.place for those at that stage on benefits. This is quite a tough
:42:30. > :42:33.message, if you are saying to people, listen, you don't have a
:42:33. > :42:37.job, we therefore don't believe you should have more than two children.
:42:37. > :42:43.You may want a large family, you can't have one, because the state
:42:43. > :42:48.is not going to pay for it, stop, it is quite a stuff tough message
:42:48. > :42:52.to send to people? The message is this, everybody in Britain makes
:42:52. > :42:55.decisions on what they can afford and how their family life works. We
:42:55. > :42:58.should have that for everybody. We are saying you can have as many
:42:58. > :43:01.children as you like, once you have children you need to recognise you
:43:01. > :43:05.need to provide for those children. It is not just about the money.
:43:06. > :43:09.Come back to the Earl yes point. We are also saying -- earlier point,
:43:09. > :43:12.we are also saying look those children need some kind of lead, to
:43:12. > :43:16.show that work is part of their lives, contributing and being part
:43:16. > :43:20.of mainstream society is citlka. We are saying to people, look, --
:43:20. > :43:23.critical. We are sake to people, look, think about these things, --
:43:23. > :43:29.saying to people, look choices come with consequences. Most people
:43:29. > :43:34.think about that. In the lower C1s and C2s, the blue collar area,
:43:34. > :43:38.people would get up in the morning, work hare, come back late, saying I
:43:38. > :43:42.only want to have one or two children to provide, looking down
:43:42. > :43:45.the road with the curtains closed, and nobody going out and lots of
:43:45. > :43:48.children around. It is dividing society. The way to bring society
:43:48. > :43:51.back together again to get the idea of taking responsibility and
:43:51. > :43:54.fairness for those who pay the bills. If we go into that house,
:43:54. > :43:58.with the blinds that are closed, One Nation of the things that will
:43:58. > :44:03.happen with the new -- one of the things that will happen with the
:44:03. > :44:06.new Universal Credit is the money will go once a month to one named
:44:06. > :44:10.householder. A lot of the charities are worried about this. They say
:44:10. > :44:16.the money intended for the children and this and, that may be bundled
:44:16. > :44:20.together, and may be pass today a feckless father or a feckless to a
:44:20. > :44:25.male in the house who goes and blows it. That will make things
:44:25. > :44:28.harder to a lot of women who are used to getting money to them every
:44:28. > :44:33.for the? It is not a default to the father figure or whatever in the
:44:33. > :44:37.house hole. All we are saying to households, just like in work, you
:44:37. > :44:42.choose who receives the money. Only about 2% of all married couples do
:44:42. > :44:45.not have joint accounts, and 7% of cohabiting coms don't have joint
:44:45. > :44:49.accounts. We are in the vast, vast majority deciding to place one
:44:49. > :44:53.account which they put most, if not all of their money. But you can
:44:53. > :44:58.choose, if you want it to go to the woman, then it goes there. In the
:44:58. > :45:01.cases, and we have talked to the charities, if there is a dispute in
:45:01. > :45:05.minority houses where they can't agree, we will looking at ways
:45:05. > :45:09.where the money could follow the child, and maybe the rent-payer.
:45:09. > :45:14.Which often, nine times out of ten, turns out to be the woman. So you
:45:14. > :45:22.are going to look at it? Complete flexibility, we are not looking for
:45:22. > :45:24.anything, but a simpler method where most families can settle
:45:24. > :45:29.money for household bills. There was an open dispute between
:45:30. > :45:34.yourself and the Chancellor a little while back? Surely not!
:45:34. > :45:39.fear there was! He said, we are going to need another �10 billion
:45:39. > :45:44.out of your budget. And you said effectively, over your dead body,
:45:44. > :45:49.but you will accept there will be further cuts in the budget, and you
:45:49. > :45:56.accept because of the economy it must happen. How big?
:45:56. > :46:00.Chancellor always said in terms of illustrative figures. You were
:46:00. > :46:03.nose-to-nose on this? We discussed it, my point is there has to be
:46:03. > :46:07.further savings. And we are looking to see where the savings can be
:46:07. > :46:10.made. The point I made, and the Chancellor is in absolute agreement,
:46:10. > :46:14.the Universal Credit and some of the changes we are making, we need
:46:14. > :46:17.to invest to save money, we need to make sure we are changing lives not
:46:17. > :46:20.just the money. Things like housing benefit, et cetera, whatever we do
:46:20. > :46:25.to do with the money people receive, it is very important that this
:46:25. > :46:32.changes lives. Every pound we spend, he agrees with me completely on
:46:32. > :46:36.this is transformative, not just a cut. There aren't really dispute,
:46:36. > :46:39.there will always be diss with the Treasury about money, my point is
:46:39. > :46:43.how you do it. He agrees on that. We have talked about people who
:46:43. > :46:46.have very little money at the bottom of the heap. What about all
:46:46. > :46:50.those wealthier pensioners who are getting lots of benefits of one
:46:50. > :46:54.kind or another from the state, whether it is free bus passes,
:46:54. > :46:57.Winter Fuel Allowances. You have said, if you are well off and don't
:46:57. > :47:00.need your Winter Fuel Allowance, please hand it back. If you have a
:47:00. > :47:03.benefit where you are asking some people to hand it back, there may
:47:03. > :47:08.be something wrong with the way the benefit is distributed in the first
:47:08. > :47:12.place? There are lots of anomolies in the benefits system, we could go
:47:12. > :47:14.anywhere on the universal nature of some of these benefit. The reality
:47:14. > :47:19.is this, the Prime Minister absolutely pledged, categorically
:47:19. > :47:23.at the last election, that he would not be interfering with those
:47:23. > :47:27.benefits, that reassured a lot of pensioners. If the Prime Minister
:47:27. > :47:31.gives his word on, that I'm happy, as with the Chancellor, who is
:47:31. > :47:35.doing a great job of resolving the deficit handed over by Labour.
:47:36. > :47:38.Looking ahead, do you think the age of universal benefits of this kind,
:47:38. > :47:43.given the relative wealth of many pensioner households, compared to
:47:43. > :47:47.people in their 20s, do you think that's fair?, long-term? First of
:47:47. > :47:52.all, we have a very good story to tell about pensioners. With Steve
:47:52. > :47:57.Webb a good friend and colleague in the department, we have worked hard
:47:57. > :48:01.to get autumn enrolment, getting people saving it. Triple-lock has
:48:01. > :48:04.made pensioners better off, 15% better off over their lifetime, now
:48:04. > :48:08.the single teir. The point before the next question, is as we get the
:48:08. > :48:13.pension reforms in place, like the single teir, we will make the next
:48:13. > :48:16.generation of pensioners, put them on a more stable footing, a better
:48:16. > :48:19.income and a fairer income, that is my point. My question is going in
:48:19. > :48:22.the other direction, it is saying there are lots of pensioner
:48:22. > :48:27.households right now, who are, compared to people struggling, in
:48:27. > :48:33.the early stages of life and work, pretty well off. Is it sustainable,
:48:33. > :48:37.is it fair, is it right, to carry on giving universal benefits to
:48:37. > :48:42.well-off pensioners? How we give the benefits to pensioners is
:48:42. > :48:46.always matter of debate. I'm asking your view of it? Pensioners don't
:48:46. > :48:49.have the one option that people of working age have. They really can't
:48:49. > :48:54.necessarily increase their income, because they are no longer able to
:48:54. > :48:57.work. What we're saying is, and my change is, work is transformative
:48:57. > :49:00.and gives awe greater chance of greater income, you can affect your
:49:00. > :49:06.life while you are of working age. You have a opportunity. Pensioners
:49:06. > :49:09.do not. We do need to have a little bit more protection and sensibility
:49:09. > :49:13.around pensioners. They are remarkable, they gave so much. We
:49:13. > :49:18.need to do our best for them. turn to Europe, if we may. If the
:49:18. > :49:24.Prime Minister comes back after next week's negotiations with a
:49:24. > :49:27.freeze, a real terms freeze on the eve of British contributions to the
:49:27. > :49:30.EU budget. Is that something you would be comfortable selling to
:49:31. > :49:34.Tory backbenchers? I will, whatever else, whatever else their ambitions
:49:34. > :49:37.are about Europe in the future, the European Union, what kind of
:49:37. > :49:40.relationship we have with them, we are here, right now, trying to
:49:40. > :49:44.restrict the amount of money that goes to the European budget.
:49:44. > :49:48.your view he doesn't have to come back with a real-terms cut? I think
:49:48. > :49:52.he would love to come back, I would love him to be able to do it T I
:49:52. > :49:56.honestly feel we don't give enough credit to him. The first man to
:49:56. > :49:58.veto a European treaty. He has told us he will veto something he can't
:49:58. > :50:03.bring back to the British parliament. These are strong wortdz,
:50:03. > :50:07.compared to the last Government, -- words, compared to last, and
:50:07. > :50:10.Governments before, we saw budgets rise and losing half the rebate.
:50:10. > :50:14.The Prime Minister has been tough and strong on this. I say to my
:50:14. > :50:17.colleagues, no-one can go against me in terms of the amount of
:50:17. > :50:20.scepticisim I have, and my opinions in the past, I simply say,
:50:20. > :50:23.sometimes the things you rebel on, not just about having a go at the
:50:23. > :50:26.Prime Minister, but actually about Europe. This one is really about
:50:26. > :50:30.saying the Prime Minister is on our side, he wants to get the best deal,
:50:30. > :50:34.and if he can get that freeze, I think that would be a pretty
:50:34. > :50:38.significant start. So I would be satisfied. Your party, and your
:50:38. > :50:42.friends in your party, are yearning for a proper referendum on Britain
:50:42. > :50:45.in Europe. Which means an in or out referendum, are they going to get
:50:45. > :50:49.one, do you think? The Prime Minister has already said he's not
:50:49. > :50:54.against a referendum, it is a matter of when and on what. We are
:50:54. > :50:56.looking at that at the moment. He is due to make a big speech about
:50:56. > :50:58.where he thinks the future Conservative Party and Government
:50:59. > :51:02.should be on Europe. There is no question that the public opinion
:51:02. > :51:06.and within the party has shifted dramatically on the European issue.
:51:06. > :51:09.To be fair, the European Union and the single currency has created
:51:09. > :51:12.that debate, William Hague has spoken about it. The terms of the
:51:12. > :51:16.debate are not the same now. If they go deeper into the federalism,
:51:16. > :51:19.we have to have a different relationship with them. The Prime
:51:19. > :51:23.Minister is talking about that. Where do you, in your bones, where
:51:23. > :51:30.do you think we are going to end up? I have given up making any
:51:30. > :51:34.prophesis and policies in politics, they only lead to disaster! The
:51:34. > :51:36.only thing is where you stand now. The Prime Minister's instinct of
:51:37. > :51:40.the Government and the party is much more in tune with the British
:51:40. > :51:43.public, who don't want to go down some deeper federal route with more
:51:43. > :51:46.powers, they want powers back. What we have to figure out is how to
:51:46. > :51:49.achieve that. Then we need to know what kind of question we ask,
:51:49. > :51:54.whether we ask it before or after, these are the kind of debates we
:51:54. > :51:58.will have or discuss. We have time and we need to get this one right.
:51:58. > :52:01.There are two kinds of choice the British public could get.
:52:01. > :52:05.Conservative Government goes, or the coalition Government goes to
:52:05. > :52:11.Brussels, there is a negotiation of some kind. It is brought back, and
:52:11. > :52:14.people are asked whether they like it or not. Which is an "in"
:52:14. > :52:17.referendum, or a referendum that says, listen, this is where we are,
:52:17. > :52:21.this is what Europe looks like today, do we still want to be
:52:21. > :52:24.inside it? Yes, these are the absolute referendums, you could ask
:52:24. > :52:27.questions like, that you could also ask questions, do you give the
:52:27. > :52:31.Prime Minister a full mandate to negotiate on a whole range of
:52:31. > :52:34.issues and the public can have their views on it. There is no sim
:52:34. > :52:40.Policeic answer. If you had a choice now would you want to stay
:52:40. > :52:43.in? It depends what you mean by staying in. I believe fundamentally
:52:43. > :52:47.in trading and co-operation with European partners, that is the
:52:47. > :52:50.basis of it. You tell me how that defines in the future, I don't know.
:52:50. > :52:53.It depends an awful lot on what happens with the single currency.
:52:53. > :52:57.In some senses some of these decisions are not going to be made
:52:57. > :53:02.by us. They are being made by a central core in Europe. Who have to
:53:02. > :53:05.figure how they sort the mess of the single currency out, and get
:53:05. > :53:09.some of those Mediterranean countries back on to an even keel.
:53:09. > :53:14.If they come back with a more integrated union than we have at
:53:14. > :53:17.the moment, banking union, union on tax and fiscal matters as well, in
:53:17. > :53:20.your view, we could not be part of that, could we? We are not part of
:53:20. > :53:23.it, and the Prime Minister has always made it clear, as has George
:53:23. > :53:27.Osborne and William, that we are not going to be part of that kind
:53:27. > :53:30.of process. We vetoed the treaty last time, when they were proposing
:53:30. > :53:34.that kind of stuff. First of all, people should take some reassurance
:53:34. > :53:39.from our Prime Minister, who is absolutely standing pretty much
:53:39. > :53:43.full square in the middle of public opinion. Which is we don't want to
:53:43. > :53:48.see any more powers ceded over there, but we want powers back. Our
:53:48. > :53:52.relationship in the future ising it for the future, we are trying to
:53:52. > :53:55.define that now. Like most western countries, we are heavily burdened
:53:55. > :53:59.with debt, we have a productivity problem, the question of how we are
:53:59. > :54:05.going to make sure way in the world is a really serious one. In your
:54:05. > :54:09.view, could we do that, outside the European Union? If we took control
:54:09. > :54:14.of our own destiny, control of our own economy back, are we big enough
:54:14. > :54:17.to survive? I'm an optimist about the UK, I have always been involved
:54:18. > :54:20.with trade with European partner, we will always be doing that,
:54:20. > :54:23.whatever the relationship is. The Prime Minister will talk about that
:54:23. > :54:27.in the future. We are a member of the European Union, that gives
:54:27. > :54:33.benefits, we have to figure that out. In the world we are a global
:54:33. > :54:36.trader, more than any other country in Europe. I hate this parliament
:54:36. > :54:38.that says little Britain outside, or Britain as part of a wider
:54:38. > :54:43.Europe. We can be within our trading relationships and all the
:54:43. > :54:48.rest of it in Europe, we can also be a fantastic flobl trader. We do
:54:48. > :54:52.more trade, we invest more in -- global trader. We do more trade we
:54:52. > :54:55.invest more in the United States and more global trade than any of
:54:55. > :54:59.these countries. And our programmes show what a fantastic history
:54:59. > :55:05.Britain has as a remarkable country for good and trade around the world.
:55:05. > :55:13.I think that is who we are today as much as 100 years ago. To clear
:55:13. > :55:18.away any cobweb of obfuscation, that means we could do perfectly
:55:18. > :55:22.well outside the EU? That is not my view, inside or out, I think we can
:55:22. > :55:25.do it all! Now the news headlines.
:55:25. > :55:30.The work and suspensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, has defended his
:55:30. > :55:36.plans to ING cha the benefits system. He said that those on --
:55:36. > :55:41.changes to the benefit systems. He said those on benefits should make
:55:41. > :55:44.the same considerations on whether they can afford children or not. He
:55:44. > :55:50.acknowledged the changes might cost more in the short-term, but he said
:55:50. > :55:54.it was vital that they were transformative. The US presidential
:55:54. > :55:57.candidates have been addressing large crowds ahead of the election.
:55:57. > :56:00.Mitt Romney is trying to deny Barack Obama a second term in the
:56:00. > :56:05.Oval Office. With the polls virtually neck and neck, the two
:56:05. > :56:10.men are focusing their efforts on voters in key swing states like
:56:10. > :56:13.Ohio and Florida. That's all from me, the next news
:56:13. > :56:19.is at midday. First a look at what's coming up after this
:56:19. > :56:27.programme. On Sunday Morning Live, with the
:56:27. > :56:31.gay rights group stone wall giving the Bigot Of the Year to a Catholic.
:56:31. > :56:35.Are we in danger of becoming a nation of dependants, and should
:56:35. > :56:39.all religion, even the Jedi Knights, be treated the same.
:56:39. > :56:47.No bigots and Jedi Knights in this studio. Iain Duncan Smith is still
:56:47. > :56:50.with me, joined again by kenddend kend. I put my -- Helena Kennedy.
:56:50. > :56:54.put my sabre away! We were talking about benefits, a lot of people are
:56:54. > :56:59.on benefits who are working, but their wages are low. We have these
:56:59. > :57:02.ideas for a living wage to try to encourage companies to pay more?
:57:02. > :57:05.thought it was interesting that you see in the press today that the
:57:05. > :57:09.Milliband brothers, together, are working on this idea of a living
:57:09. > :57:13.wage. And indeed the Mayor of London, has signed up to it, and
:57:13. > :57:16.that really people deserve to have a decent wage, and not to be living
:57:16. > :57:20.on the barest minimum. And something has to be done about that.
:57:20. > :57:24.The idea that Labour is making that a policy is a real challenge to you,
:57:24. > :57:27.isn't it? I think it is important, there is no question now that we
:57:27. > :57:31.have an issue about in-work poverty. That is the bit I'm trying to
:57:31. > :57:35.tackle. The university credit, the new benefit actually shifts 80% of
:57:35. > :57:39.the money down to the bottom 40%, with who are in work, essentially,
:57:39. > :57:43.and that will hugely boost their income, so eradicate a lot of that.
:57:43. > :57:48.It will leave it possible, for businesses, to think about then
:57:48. > :57:51.topping up to a living wage. Perhaps politicians from all sides
:57:51. > :57:55.have to be putting more moral pressure on business to pay a bit
:57:55. > :58:02.more? I was worried, listening to you, in your interview, that we
:58:02. > :58:07.seem to be returning to a deserving and undeserving poor. It is very
:58:07. > :58:12.distasteful to many people. The battered women can't have their
:58:12. > :58:15.husbands determining whether the Universal Credit. They won't, it is
:58:15. > :58:19.completely out. That is why charities are worried. They are
:58:19. > :58:24.worried because they keep going back to one point. We have said
:58:24. > :58:27.straight along all the money going straight to the refuges, absolute,
:58:27. > :58:32.any case of violence straight to the woman. Child benefit always
:58:32. > :58:35.went to the women, it helped in those situations. Child benefit
:58:35. > :58:38.isn't part of Universal Credit so won't be part of the system. That
:58:38. > :58:41.is the big difference. The big difference is Universal Credit will
:58:41. > :58:44.actually, I think, free a lot of women, gives them a lot of
:58:44. > :58:47.opportunity. Lone parents will benefit fatastically from Universal
:58:47. > :58:52.Credit, it put real money into a household where there is only one
:58:52. > :58:54.worker, at last a chance to take control of their lives. All very
:58:54. > :58:58.interesting stuff. We have unfortunately run out of time.
:58:58. > :59:01.Thank you very much. Next week it is Remembrance Sunday, we will have
:59:02. > :59:04.a specially-extended programme, we always do. We will hear from a
:59:04. > :59:08.soldier severely wounded in Afghanistan, now achieving great
:59:08. > :59:15.things as a Paralympic athletes. I will be talking to the Home