:00:34. > :00:40.Good morning. The British aristocracy still has an influence
:00:40. > :00:43.abroad, it seems. When departing American Secretary of State Hillary
:00:43. > :00:45.Clinton had her private farewell dinner this week, the cast of her
:00:45. > :00:50.favourite show, which is actually Downton Abbey, recorded a personal
:00:50. > :00:57.goodbye to her. Aristocracy and jazz coming up in our programme
:00:57. > :00:59.this morning. Together with politics, both American and British.
:01:00. > :01:03.Here to look through today's papers, the editor of The Spectator
:01:03. > :01:08.magazine, Fraser Nelson. And an expert on public opinion, the
:01:08. > :01:10.former pollster Deborah Mattinson. First, a Prime Minister with a
:01:10. > :01:14.fight on his hands over Europe. Unstable and brutally oppressive
:01:14. > :01:21.regimes in the Arab world. And the dilemma of intervention in African
:01:21. > :01:24.conflicts. Not just David Cameron, but Tony Blair. It's all familiar
:01:24. > :01:29.territory to a man who spent a decade in Number 10 and who was
:01:29. > :01:32.challenged on similar fronts to those facing today's occupant. This
:01:33. > :01:36.morning we'll be asking Tony Blair how would he tackle the new,
:01:36. > :01:40.emerging terrorist threat? What he makes of the promised referendum on
:01:40. > :01:47.Europe? And what the Labour party needs to do now if it's to reclaim
:01:47. > :01:50.the keys to Downing Street. I'll also be talking to a man who once
:01:50. > :01:53.came within a whisker or perhaps "a hanging chad" of becoming President
:01:53. > :01:57.of the United States. Former Vice President Al Gore, one of the
:01:57. > :02:00.world's foremost voices on the impact of climate change. He's been
:02:00. > :02:05.telling me why he remains optimistic about the future despite
:02:05. > :02:09.his gloomy analysis of US politics and big business. And talking about
:02:09. > :02:19.the deal that's made him a multi- millionaire. Also this morning, a
:02:19. > :02:23.
:02:23. > :02:30.new BBC Drama, Dancing On The Edge, # Are happy to see you...
:02:30. > :02:32.A slick and sexy jazz age production by one of our greatest
:02:32. > :02:39.television dramatists. The writer and director Stephen Poliakoff is
:02:39. > :02:45.here with one of the programme's stars, Jacqueline Bisset. Before
:02:45. > :02:48.all that, the latest news from Naga Good morning. The leaders of
:02:48. > :02:51.Afghanistan and Pakistan are in Britain for two days of talks with
:02:51. > :02:54.David Cameron as part of efforts to prevent a Taliban resurgence when
:02:54. > :02:57.British troops leave the region. The Prime Minister will dine with
:02:57. > :02:59.Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari at Chequers this evening, before a
:02:59. > :03:02.formal meeting tomorrow which will also involve senior security
:03:02. > :03:06.officials from all three countries. The discussions are part of a
:03:07. > :03:10.process initiated by Mr Cameron last year. A spokeswoman said a
:03:10. > :03:12.very clear message was being sent to the Taliban that now was the
:03:12. > :03:18.time for everyone to participate in a peaceful political process in
:03:18. > :03:22.Afghanistan. There are new claims by some nurses that staffing levels
:03:22. > :03:25.in parts of the NHS are dangerously low. A survey of nearly 600 nurses
:03:25. > :03:35.by Nursing Times found three quarters of them had witnessed what
:03:35. > :03:39.they considered to be poor care in their ward or unit in the last year.
:03:39. > :03:44.Last month, David Cameron announced his intention to improve nursing
:03:44. > :03:48.standards. He said he wanted nurses to carry out Ali walked round to
:03:48. > :03:53.check on patients. Now a survey by Nursing Times magazine has raised
:03:53. > :03:58.questions about staffing levels in NHS hospitals. Around 600 nurses
:03:58. > :04:01.took part and over half described their unit as sometimes always
:04:01. > :04:05.dangerously understaffed. About three-quarters said they had
:04:05. > :04:08.witnessed what they considered to be poor care in the award over the
:04:08. > :04:13.past year. And of those, around one-third said it happened
:04:13. > :04:19.regularly. It calls into question the standard of care offered to
:04:19. > :04:23.patients. Nurses are doing bedside observations, looking at the
:04:23. > :04:29.patience, and making sure the patient experienced are poles
:04:29. > :04:33.privacy and dignity which are very important to patients. Without
:04:33. > :04:43.nurses being properly resourced, those things are going to suffer.
:04:43. > :04:49.
:04:49. > :04:52.The survey comes as the public inquiry into the failings at the
:04:52. > :04:55.Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust prepares to publish its report this
:04:56. > :04:58.week. A woman from East London who was
:04:59. > :05:04.disfigured when acid was throw in her face has spoken about the
:05:04. > :05:09.assault in the hope it will help police catch her attacker. 20-year-
:05:09. > :05:14.old Naomi Oni says she was attacked by a woman wearing a hijab. No
:05:14. > :05:19.arrests have been made but police say inquires are continuing. Her
:05:19. > :05:26.life ahead affair, before she suffered an acid attack, just
:05:26. > :05:33.minutes from her home. This was really, really painful. Her life
:05:33. > :05:40.changed in an instant. I just felt a splash. I just felt something
:05:41. > :05:44.literally thrown at me, a splash. And I ran home, I ran up down at my
:05:45. > :05:50.road, screaming hysterically, shouting on the phone to my
:05:50. > :05:56.boyfriend to call 999. I got to my door and I shouted, acid, acid,
:05:56. > :06:00.acid. The attack happened after midnight on 30th December. She had
:06:00. > :06:05.been working at the West Hill shopping centre in Stratford. She
:06:05. > :06:09.took the eight-mile journey home getting off the bus at the Lodge
:06:09. > :06:15.Avenue in Dagenham. She says she has no idea who attacked her and
:06:15. > :06:19.each day asks herself why me? Eight more people have been arrested by
:06:19. > :06:22.police investigating the murder of a teenager in London a week ago.
:06:22. > :06:29.16-year-old Hani Abou El Kheir was found stabbed near his home in
:06:29. > :06:31.Pimlico. Police believe up to ten people were involved in the attack.
:06:32. > :06:36.A 20-year-old man arrested on suspicion of murder on Thursday has
:06:36. > :06:45.since been bailed. That's all from me for now. I'll be back with the
:06:45. > :06:50.headlines just before 10.00am. Back Thanks, Naga. Now, on the front
:06:50. > :06:56.pages today. Starting with the Telegraph, a picture of the Prince
:06:56. > :06:59.of Wales and Camilla. He spoke of overwhelming challenges facing
:07:00. > :07:04.committees surviving in the economic downturn. The main story
:07:04. > :07:08.is about the vote taking place about gay marriage on Tuesday. The
:07:08. > :07:14.Telegraph suggests down and she expects 120 of David Cameron's MPs
:07:14. > :07:19.will vote in favour of legalising homosexual unions. Leaving around
:07:19. > :07:24.180 Conservative members likely to abstain or vote against. The Sunday
:07:24. > :07:30.Times has a picture of Chris Robshaw, the England rugby captain,
:07:30. > :07:34.watched by Princess and lifting the Calcutta Cup after they overpowered
:07:34. > :07:40.Scotland 38-18. The main story about the head of Britain's biggest
:07:40. > :07:45.arms manufacturer, which at the Sunday Times says allegedly
:07:45. > :07:50.acquired penthouses from the Saudi Arabian royals. The Observer have a
:07:50. > :07:57.picture of Mo Farah and his wife and daughter. She has been speaking
:07:58. > :08:02.out about school funding and school sports funding, and is opposed to
:08:02. > :08:05.school sport cuts. The main story about Michael Gove, plunged last
:08:05. > :08:10.night into what the Observer called a potentially toxic row over
:08:10. > :08:15.allegations that members of the department had used to Twitter to
:08:15. > :08:21.launch highly personal attacks on journalists and political opponents.
:08:21. > :08:25.The Independent have a story about the rail line which was announced,
:08:25. > :08:30.the cost to Britain's wildlife, they ask its progress? The Sunday
:08:30. > :08:36.Mirror has an interview with Paul Gascoigne, who says he can't live
:08:36. > :08:42.without a drink. The Sunday Express is talking about carbon monoxide
:08:42. > :08:50.monitors in aeroplanes, talking to a Canadian expert. The Sun
:08:50. > :08:57.newspaper reports one direction's Harry has been having a bit of fun.
:08:57. > :09:03.Those are your main stories this morning. A I'm going to start with
:09:03. > :09:06.the big political story of the week. The gay marriage vote. It's all a
:09:06. > :09:11.bit of a nightmare for David Cameron. What is going to the out
:09:11. > :09:16.come here? My thought really is what the public think of this? Here
:09:16. > :09:20.is the dilemma. Two-thirds of the public support gay marriage, but
:09:20. > :09:25.the third that don't are the ones that concern David Cameron because
:09:25. > :09:31.a 20% of Tory voters say they would consider not voting Tory if the
:09:31. > :09:39.Tory vote sport gay marriage. This gives him a real problem. What is
:09:39. > :09:43.he going to do because will those people go off to UKIP? They are not
:09:43. > :09:46.about Europe, but it's all about the right-wing of the Tory party
:09:46. > :09:53.and what's going to happen there and I think it's very problematic.
:09:53. > :09:56.What do you think will happen on Tuesday? Well, a lot of their
:09:56. > :10:00.members are saying, we are not going to turn up and campaign for
:10:00. > :10:03.you because you are attacked and are so much, like the Prime
:10:03. > :10:07.Minister doesn't like Conservative Members any more. The funny thing
:10:07. > :10:15.is, so will punish its bill was a far bigger deal than gay marriage,
:10:15. > :10:20.but it was done a lot more deftly without any of this, saying we are
:10:20. > :10:24.right and you are wrong, and that's what constituents don't like. It's
:10:24. > :10:29.not so much the idea of civil partnerships, we're talking about
:10:29. > :10:33.the word here, calling at marriage. Legally, it's exactly the same, and
:10:33. > :10:40.it's making a lot of them think that maybe it's time for a new
:10:40. > :10:43.leader. The Sunday Times has got a wonderful picture today of the
:10:43. > :10:48.various Tories lining up behind David Cameron with pickaxes in
:10:48. > :10:53.their hands waiting for his return from Africa. When you read it,
:10:53. > :10:58.there's lots of grumbling, nothing which resembles an organised plot.
:10:58. > :11:03.Who would stand against him? Before the election, hardly anybody, I
:11:03. > :11:06.think, but if you look at the bookmaker's odds, the odds are that
:11:06. > :11:09.Ed Miliband will be the next Prime Minister and the Tories will face
:11:09. > :11:14.leadership elections within two and a bit years. They are already
:11:14. > :11:17.thinking, who will be in the election? Be careful what you wish
:11:17. > :11:24.for because David Cameron consistently performs ahead of the
:11:24. > :11:34.party. Is there anybody who would be better? Theresa May? She was
:11:34. > :11:36.
:11:36. > :11:41.mentioned yesterday. Are there any names in the frame? So many. I
:11:41. > :11:45.think he is a front man. Look at the new intake, the Treasury
:11:45. > :11:52.minister would be brilliant, the schools minister, so much a new
:11:53. > :11:55.talent, who will be ripe in about 2020. Boris is the only one have
:11:55. > :12:02.also been a focus groups, if you ask people about the Tory party,
:12:02. > :12:11.they go into raptures about Boris. Those small details won't matter.
:12:11. > :12:14.He is the bookies favour to the For the what else have you got?
:12:15. > :12:20.Following on a directly from what Fraser was saying, who are the real
:12:20. > :12:26.Tory modernisers? I just noticed flipping back here, at the back of
:12:26. > :12:34.that, at the bottom here, in the Sunday Times leader peace, an
:12:34. > :12:37.apology, a tiny little apology for the cartoon which caused so much
:12:37. > :12:42.trouble being very tactlessly published on a Holocaust memorial
:12:42. > :12:48.day last week. The thing which struck me was that I had missed the
:12:48. > :12:53.first time around, and it's one of the things Lord Leveson has said,
:12:53. > :12:57.these apologies are tiny compared to the trouble caused. He wasn't
:12:57. > :13:02.talking about cartoons, though. was taught me that things he didn't
:13:02. > :13:08.like, inaccurate stories, using it foul up methods to expose the
:13:08. > :13:14.private lives of people but we are in the era of press penitence,...
:13:14. > :13:21.This is not very penitent, I would say. How many apologies has Rupert
:13:21. > :13:25.Murdoch personally apologised for? Apologies don't get much bigger
:13:25. > :13:31.than News Corp saying, sorry, this was a terrible mistake. Gerald
:13:31. > :13:38.Scarfe, the offending cartoonist, has done a cartoon of a big cat
:13:38. > :13:42.today. Michael Gove, on the front pages, suggesting there are some
:13:42. > :13:46.nefarious Twitter thing it going on at where the education department
:13:46. > :13:52.is basically a annoying its journalists to say nasty things
:13:52. > :13:58.about them. It's fascinating, the ratio of between Twitter and the
:13:58. > :14:05.printed press. What happened here, this tour to account from a
:14:05. > :14:10.journalist, there was a splash on the newspaper spread, an editorial,
:14:10. > :14:17.and if unit at the offending words here, I don't know, 120 words in
:14:17. > :14:24.total, about 2000 words Britain... An anonymous account, though?
:14:24. > :14:28.it's pretty much anonymous, Twitter. The parties are thinking, we can
:14:28. > :14:34.enter the debate with Twitter. We are being followed by a few 1,000
:14:34. > :14:38.people. It's interesting to see that the press are giving Twitter
:14:38. > :14:45.the status which I suppose it has, although it's not entirely clear
:14:45. > :14:53.what the main offence was. It's described as an investigation. I'm
:14:53. > :14:58.not quite sure what they found. There is an eagerness had to link
:14:58. > :15:02.this to Damian McBride and past bad behaviour in politics, and I think
:15:02. > :15:08.there is a really big story here. Certainly one of the public gets,
:15:08. > :15:12.which is that the disenchantment with politics generally, and I
:15:12. > :15:16.think that's what the real story is here. I don't know actually whether
:15:16. > :15:26.it's fair in the case of Michael Gove, it's not Clare, but talking
:15:26. > :15:33.
:15:33. > :15:38.$:/STARTFEED. What it means, is the reputation of politicians sinks
:15:39. > :15:48.lower and lower. I think we could be heading to record small turnout
:15:49. > :15:50.
:15:50. > :15:54.at the next election because people are so fed up Berkcw has picked up
:15:54. > :15:59.on this. He says "shot shouting, behave
:15:59. > :16:05.better in the House." It clearly drives the Speaker mad. Quite
:16:05. > :16:07.rightly. I think that unless MPs start to behave a bit better people
:16:07. > :16:09.will... How many European Parliament debates can you
:16:09. > :16:13.remember? How many Scottish Parliament debates? It is the
:16:13. > :16:17.rowdyness that makes them. If you think of the top three Commons'
:16:17. > :16:21.moments. They will be moments of huge noise and drama in the House.
:16:21. > :16:25.I think that's what makes our Parliament worth... You think that
:16:25. > :16:29.because you are the Westminster village. The public do not think
:16:29. > :16:34.that. I have a more positive story which I found about behaviour of
:16:34. > :16:39.MPs. This is a Tory, who is a little bit of a hero. He is one of
:16:39. > :16:42.the backbench MPs who makes a difference. I ran a citizens jury,
:16:42. > :16:46.curiously in Harlow, his constituency. I asked people what
:16:46. > :16:50.politicians should do to improve their behaviour. They pointed out
:16:50. > :16:54.nobody learns to be an MP, and don't get proper training. Why
:16:54. > :16:59.don't they have apprenticeships? He is having an apprentice. How would
:16:59. > :17:04.that work?, I gather that this young man is going to shadow him
:17:04. > :17:11.and watch him and train... He will be running the Tory Party by the
:17:11. > :17:15.end. Here he is. You heard it here first. The end of Punch and Judy
:17:16. > :17:20.politics. Maybe. If he is trained well. What story do you have?
:17:20. > :17:24.this is a story in a few papers about how the Government is
:17:24. > :17:29.planning cuts. It wants to exspanned the SAS because the
:17:29. > :17:34.special forces are good -- expand. The Prime Minister wished he could
:17:34. > :17:39.have used them in the Algerian hostage crisis. But the MoD is
:17:39. > :17:42.axing 600 supportive posts for the SAS which brings into question
:17:42. > :17:48.right now the big issue behind Cameron's new foreign policy. He is
:17:48. > :17:53.going out to Africa saying he wants to enter a generational struggle,
:17:53. > :17:57.in his words, to shut down the ungoverned space about the size of
:17:57. > :18:02.France. And the military is smaller than it was during the Labour years.
:18:02. > :18:07.The Observer has a good cartoon today, actually, where they show
:18:07. > :18:11.the great elephant of Trident replacement, a huge multi-billion
:18:12. > :18:16.pound project, just stamping past the mouse of Al-Qaeda this goes to
:18:16. > :18:20.show the difficult decisions that lie ahead. If you want a problem
:18:20. > :18:24.that can sort the problems over there, you have to pay for it. And
:18:24. > :18:28.can you afford Trident at the same time? And if you do pay for it, the
:18:28. > :18:31.public are going to say - why are you spend mung on that when the NHS
:18:31. > :18:34.is falling apart? -- spending money on that.
:18:34. > :18:38.It is a real problem. When you look at - you are going to be
:18:38. > :18:42.interviewing Tony Blair later - the point where his ratings started to
:18:42. > :18:46.go in the wrong direction was when he focused his attention abroad.
:18:46. > :18:50.People were saying - why are you worrying about what is happening in
:18:50. > :18:53.Iraq, when there are things happening here you should be
:18:53. > :18:57.concentrating on. What was happening here was nothing like as
:18:57. > :19:01.bad as what is happening now. People are thinking - I don't know
:19:01. > :19:08.how I'm going to pay my bills, why are we spending money on that.
:19:08. > :19:11.Whale ask Mr Blair. You have a story about Miliband. I'm not sure
:19:11. > :19:15.which one. Is it Ed? Actually, I guess Ed Miliband is going to be
:19:15. > :19:18.looking at what is in the press today and feeling quite pleased and
:19:18. > :19:23.relieved because most of it is a lot of negative stuff about David
:19:23. > :19:28.Cameron. Nothing much about him. But there is one tiny story which
:19:28. > :19:31.I'm sure will be at the front of his mind, which is a poll that the
:19:31. > :19:38.Fabian Soiety have done which points out that Labour is not doing
:19:38. > :19:42.anything like as well as it needs to in view of winning Conservative
:19:42. > :19:48.voters. So, all the Labour lead that Labour has enjoyed in the last
:19:48. > :19:52.year or so has all come from the Lib Dem vote. And almost nothing
:19:52. > :19:55.from the Tories. Disaffected Tories have gone to UKIP and come back a
:19:55. > :20:01.little bit and probably going back again. So, I think it is something
:20:01. > :20:04.thated Labour Party needs to be focusing on -- something that the
:20:04. > :20:09.Labour Party needs to to be focusing on. How are they going to
:20:10. > :20:14.win seats back from the Tories Tories think if they can get the
:20:14. > :20:19.Lib Dems back out of opposition, they can suck the votes back from
:20:19. > :20:24.Labour and the Tories can get in. Ironically the people who could
:20:24. > :20:30.help the Tories get back in power is some lefty Lib Dem leader who
:20:30. > :20:36.they badly want to replace Nick Clegg. Another article in the
:20:36. > :20:40.papers, is a NHS Mid Staffs review, the fourth inquiry into it. It is
:20:40. > :20:44.going to reveal the failings of the NHS in the most appalling detail.
:20:44. > :20:49.There are other polls today showing that the NHS in Croydon, only one-
:20:49. > :20:53.third of the people who work there would recommend their family use it.
:20:54. > :20:57.20 other NHS Trusts, where fewer than half of those use it would
:20:57. > :21:00.want family or friends to be treated there. It'll put this under
:21:00. > :21:03.the microscope. Yes the Government can say they have put more money in
:21:03. > :21:07.and there are more nurses, but is it getting better or worse? People
:21:07. > :21:10.don't believe them. They don't believe the money has gone in and
:21:10. > :21:13.don't trust the Conservatives to run the NHS. Doing focus groups
:21:13. > :21:17.ahead of the last election, I said to people - if the Tories were to
:21:17. > :21:22.get in, what is the thing you fear most, what most worries? You it was
:21:22. > :21:25.always that they would destroy the NHS. The Labour Party by contrast,
:21:25. > :21:29.the Labour Party brand is intimately linked in a positive way
:21:29. > :21:32.with the NHS and yet I feel they're not maximising that at the moment.
:21:32. > :21:37.They are not talking about it enough. Something else we'll put to
:21:37. > :21:42.Tony Blair later. Deborah and Fraser, thank you very much.
:21:42. > :21:43.It was decidedly nippy this morning. Is more snow on the way? Ben joins
:21:43. > :21:47.Is more snow on the way? Ben joins us with the weather.
:21:47. > :21:52.There could well be more snow on the way in the week ahead. It is
:21:53. > :21:55.certainly going to turn colder once again. But today it is slightly
:21:55. > :22:00.milder, certainly compared with yesterday. But the price we pay is
:22:00. > :22:04.that there is a lot more cloud around. And a band of rain slowly
:22:04. > :22:07.pushing eastwards. This rain fizzling out. So very little
:22:07. > :22:10.eventually reaching the south-east. At the same time more wet weather
:22:10. > :22:14.pushing into the western side of Northern Ireland and western
:22:14. > :22:17.Scotland. Across the hills and mountains of western Scotland where
:22:17. > :22:21.we'll have rain persistently throughout the day it'll be windy.
:22:21. > :22:24.Anywhere to the east of high grounds, so the eastern side of
:22:24. > :22:29.Scotland and eastern side of Northern Ireland, brightness
:22:29. > :22:33.developing and the same it the east of Pennines. Here is you are a
:22:33. > :22:37.first band of rain in the south- east, with just a few spots of
:22:37. > :22:42.drizzle as for with the hills of the south-west and Wales. And very
:22:42. > :22:46.mild. Through this evening and tonight another band of weather
:22:46. > :22:51.pushing south-east, again the rain light and patchy. Behind it things
:22:51. > :22:54.will turn colder and winds will whip up in parts of Scotland with
:22:54. > :22:57.gales or severe gales and wintry showers. They'll continue through
:22:58. > :23:03.tomorrow. We could see snow accumulating, even to lower levels.
:23:03. > :23:13.Drier and brighter further south. For the week ahead it, looks cold,
:23:13. > :23:14.
:23:14. > :23:18.windy with further wintry showers. The former US Vice-President, Al
:23:18. > :23:21.Gore, is worried about our future. His new book deals not just with
:23:21. > :23:24.climate change, but with what he says are the harmful links between
:23:24. > :23:29.big business, politics and the media. Al Gore's own future is
:23:29. > :23:32.certainly secure. He's just sold his television company, Current TV,
:23:32. > :23:40.for millions. The buyer was Al- Jazeera, funded by the oil-rich
:23:40. > :23:43.state of Qatar. When I spoke to him earlier, I asked him whether, as an
:23:43. > :23:45.environmentalist, he was troubled by the deal. But we started by
:23:45. > :23:48.discussing his book called The Future, which suggests government
:23:48. > :23:51.and TV are dysfunctional and in the pockets of wealthy companies. I put
:23:51. > :23:55.it to Al Gore that he appeared to be saying politicians can't make
:23:55. > :24:02.decisions and television is lying to us. Well, that's a brutal
:24:02. > :24:07.contraction but I'll go with it. Politicians have trouble making the
:24:07. > :24:12.right decisions in the interests of the public they represent. When
:24:12. > :24:17.they have to spend so much time worrying about the opinions of
:24:17. > :24:21.these large corporate donors and special interest donors, and
:24:21. > :24:28.they're tempted, the politicians are, believe me, to serve their
:24:28. > :24:33.interests instead of the public interest. That's not a new theme in
:24:34. > :24:41.your democracy or ours, but it is much worse now than it has been in
:24:41. > :24:45.the past. And television selectively presents information
:24:45. > :24:49.that is paid for by large corporations and special interests.
:24:49. > :24:53.But you could help change that. The only way to do that is from the
:24:53. > :25:00.inside through politics. Would you run again? I think you can change
:25:00. > :25:06.it from the outside as well. I think that a grass roots' movement
:25:06. > :25:11.to deNelson Mandela politics be opened up in-- to demand that
:25:11. > :25:14.politics be opened up and that the roll of money be diminished, is
:25:15. > :25:22.really more needed now than anything else. As for my own career,
:25:22. > :25:28.as I write in the book - I'm' recovering politician and the
:25:28. > :25:33.chances of a relapse have been diminishing for long enough it. Has
:25:33. > :25:37.increased my confidence I won't yield to that. Were you serve under
:25:37. > :25:42.Hillary Clinton were she to run and win the White House in 2016?
:25:42. > :25:48.think that the focus, first of all, on the Presidential election four
:25:48. > :25:55.years from now, a week after we have sworn in President Obama for
:25:55. > :25:59.his second term, is itself a symptom of - I'm not criticising
:25:59. > :26:04.you, understand, but this is true in so much of the media, certainly
:26:04. > :26:11.here in the United States, where the so-called horse race aspects of
:26:11. > :26:17.the race are easy to deal with. They fit a pre-existing formula.
:26:17. > :26:22.And, yet, what is missing from our democratic discourse when we obsess
:26:22. > :26:25.on the horse race? Here in the US we went through an entire
:26:25. > :26:34.Presidential election last year in a year that was the hottest in the
:26:34. > :26:40.history of the US. 60% of the country in drought. $110 billion in
:26:40. > :26:44.climate-related disaster damage. Hurricane Sandy destroying part of
:26:45. > :26:52.lower Manhattan and parts of New Jersey. And not one single question
:26:52. > :26:56.was asked by any of the news media - do any of the candidates for
:26:56. > :27:01.President, care about the climate crisis? As an environmentalist, did
:27:01. > :27:08.you feel conflicted when you sold your television station to a
:27:08. > :27:11.country that's partly funded by a country which has the largest
:27:11. > :27:16.carbon footprint per capita in the world? I understand that perception.
:27:16. > :27:22.I don't agree with those who would criticise it on that ground. The
:27:22. > :27:27.fact is that Al-Jazeera has long since established itself as a a
:27:27. > :27:31.widely-respected television news- gathering network and has done an
:27:31. > :27:35.outstanding job. Forgive me, though, it is not about Al-Jazeera's
:27:35. > :27:40.integrity, or independence, it's about where the money comes from.
:27:40. > :27:44.The money comes from oil and gas. hear that you think that is the
:27:44. > :27:47.case. I understand that totely. I appreciate your point of view. I
:27:48. > :27:52.don't agree with it. The point is big business, which as you say is
:27:52. > :27:55.run by oil and gas, is so influential that it creates a will
:27:55. > :28:01.the of the decisions. It makes a lot of the decisions and it's
:28:01. > :28:10.difficult to get away from that, isn't it? Well, all of the networks
:28:10. > :28:14.in the US that carry news and commentary and information, carry
:28:14. > :28:20.heavy advertising from the carbon countries. No question about it.
:28:20. > :28:24.Current did not and Al-Jazeera does knotted it. Has no commercials
:28:24. > :28:28.whatsoever. Its climate coverage has been outstanding. I hope that
:28:28. > :28:33.other networks will be encouraged by the addition of Al-Jazeera to
:28:33. > :28:36.the television dial to upgrade their own climate reporting.
:28:36. > :28:39.this book you remain quite optimistic for the future, but only
:28:39. > :28:45.if people can work together and communicate and work for the
:28:45. > :28:50.greater good. Might some people think that a little naive? Well, I
:28:50. > :28:55.hope it's not naive. I think it's actually beginning to happen now.
:28:55. > :29:02.As the book points out, we've gone through very large-scale changes in
:29:02. > :29:06.the way we communicate, for a variety of reasons. Democracy has
:29:06. > :29:10.not flourished in the age of television. But the internet
:29:10. > :29:15.changes that. And once again, empowers individuals to take part
:29:15. > :29:23.in a robust give-and-take that gives rise to a greater
:29:23. > :29:28.appreciation for the role of reason and facts and logic. Already we see
:29:28. > :29:32.individual bloggers having an impact on policy debates. We see
:29:32. > :29:39.fact-checking taking place on the internet that actually does change
:29:39. > :29:44.the way issues are dealt with. Television is still the dominant
:29:44. > :29:49.medium. But particularly with young people, it's internet is growing by
:29:49. > :29:53.leaps and bounds and I think soon will justify the optimism that
:29:53. > :29:58.individuals empowered by this new communications' infrastructure will
:29:58. > :30:01.be able to reclaim their birth rights as free citizens and redeem
:30:01. > :30:06.the promise of representative demcascy.
:30:06. > :30:10.Finally, could I -- creme crasscy. Finally, could I just ask you about
:30:10. > :30:20.American politics. With President Obama starting his second term. Is
:30:20. > :30:25.
:30:25. > :30:30.American politics more divisive Yes, indeed. It is linked to
:30:30. > :30:37.anonymous contributors, corporations, money, people suing
:30:37. > :30:41.their business plans in the guise of politics, and encouraging many
:30:41. > :30:45.politicians to say things and do things that would not have been
:30:45. > :30:51.seen in the best interests of the public in years past. American
:30:51. > :30:58.politics has fallen into a state of serious disrepair. It can be fixed,
:30:58. > :31:03.but we need to recognise that our democracy has been hacked. It's a
:31:03. > :31:07.computer term, meaning it has been taken over, in a sense, and is
:31:07. > :31:11.being operated for purposes other than those for which it was
:31:11. > :31:18.intended for the just to confirm, you got no current plans to run for
:31:18. > :31:21.office, but what about the future? As I have said, the chances of a
:31:21. > :31:26.relapse have been a diminishing for long enough that I'm pretty
:31:26. > :31:30.confident that not going to happen. Thanks very much for being with us.
:31:30. > :31:34.My pleasure. Thank you thought up we will take that as no, then,
:31:34. > :31:38.shall we? Stephen Poliakoff is one of our most original film makers
:31:38. > :31:42.with a body of work, stretching back almost four decades. Shooting
:31:42. > :31:44.the Past, Perfect Strangers and The Lost Prince are just a few of his
:31:44. > :31:47.major critical successes. Power, sense of belonging, how we
:31:47. > :31:51.interpret history, what Britain stands for or stood for, are all
:31:51. > :31:56.themes he's dealt with. And which are very apparent in his latest
:31:56. > :31:59.drama, Dancing On The Edge. Set in the early 30s, it follows the
:31:59. > :32:05.fortunes of a fictional black jazz band, who mix in high society and
:32:05. > :32:09.royal circles. I'll be talking to Stephen Poliakoff and one of the
:32:10. > :32:13.stars of the series, Jacqueline Bisset, in a moment. Good morning
:32:13. > :32:23.and welcome to the programme. But first, here's a look at Dancing On
:32:23. > :32:43.
:32:43. > :32:53.Goodness knows why you have been left to do this, Stanley? Look at
:32:53. > :32:55.
:32:55. > :33:00.Stanley, the young a journalist says something has got to change.
:33:00. > :33:05.He Pioneers the band, doesn't tea, this fictional jazz band, and there
:33:05. > :33:12.they are not going down very well. That's right, yes. Stanley helps
:33:12. > :33:20.them up but it's self-interest, too, and the Imperial people have to
:33:20. > :33:24.become more fashionable. This is all based on truth, although the
:33:24. > :33:26.story itself is fiction, so getting this jazz band to this
:33:27. > :33:31.extraordinarily old-fashioned hotel seemed an incongruous thing to do
:33:31. > :33:35.but it makes sense, so it's in his interests, too, making the place
:33:35. > :33:42.more fashionable. When you say it's based on trick, which bits are
:33:42. > :33:46.true? Two of the royals were into jazz music. The Prince of Wales,
:33:46. > :33:52.Edward VII, and his much younger brother, George, the Duke of Kent,
:33:52. > :33:56.they knocked around together, going to jazz bands, offending musicians,
:33:57. > :34:03.and had intense friendships -- befriending musicians will for the
:34:03. > :34:13.Prince of Wales played drums with Duke Ellington at a party all night.
:34:13. > :34:16.
:34:16. > :34:20.But did he? Yes, the drums. It was very informal. That sort of
:34:20. > :34:24.crossing class and race barriers, a moment in history. The early
:34:24. > :34:31.thirties, before the darkness comes up, really fascinating. That is
:34:31. > :34:35.where the story comes from. Jacqueline Bisset, what tended to
:34:35. > :34:43.back to the UK? This gentleman on my left and the script, an amazing
:34:43. > :34:49.script. I was staggered by it and I had to read it fast, but it
:34:49. > :34:56.continued to grow in interest and complexity and all the characters,
:34:56. > :35:02.they are not generic characters, very individual, and have a serious
:35:03. > :35:07.personality traits. Interweaving stories. Very good for the you have
:35:07. > :35:15.a great character, as well. Shall we have a quick look at her? Here
:35:15. > :35:21.Are you a journalist? Is it that obvious, yes. I have nothing
:35:21. > :35:25.against journalists, I never talk to them. I understand. Actually, we
:35:25. > :35:31.might bump into each other later today because your kindly allow and
:35:31. > :35:35.the band to play on your estate. I've always wanted to meet you. In
:35:35. > :35:40.case we run into each other later on, I thought I would say hello for
:35:40. > :35:43.the and now you have done it at considerable length. She appears
:35:43. > :35:48.quite fierce but she is a free spirit. She has got money to put
:35:48. > :35:52.into this new venture. Yes, she's also seeking to have some light in
:35:53. > :35:59.her life. She lost her three sons in the First World War, and has
:35:59. > :36:03.been in a sad place. This young man and his music brings a lot of
:36:03. > :36:12.interest and life and it tests her. Was your character based on
:36:12. > :36:18.anybody? It was suggested by Baroness Rothschild, who helped
:36:18. > :36:22.jazz musicians in the 1950s, so that was the inspiration. I
:36:22. > :36:27.borrowed but real-life figure and went back in history to this time,
:36:27. > :36:32.the 1930s, so she's inspired by something which happened. You said
:36:32. > :36:38.about this five-part drama, it was the most punishing of your career.
:36:38. > :36:42.Why was that? It was a captured, we shot on relocations, bouncing
:36:42. > :36:50.around the country from Birmingham to Sussex to London, to create this
:36:50. > :36:54.world, a huge hotel, a big house, and the backstage staff, so you
:36:54. > :37:00.know, it was a punishing schedule calls that it was exhilarating to
:37:00. > :37:10.work with such an extraordinary group of actors, Jacqueline, John
:37:10. > :37:11.
:37:11. > :37:18.Goodman, Chiwetel Ejiofor. A young rising British star, a fantastic
:37:18. > :37:23.soundtrack. They really cheered me up coming on on the set. He was
:37:23. > :37:28.wonderfully warm and very, very encouraging of. Slightly fierce at
:37:28. > :37:33.times for the why? Because of the scheduled for that no messing about.
:37:33. > :37:39.He had to do everything. He wrote and directed all of it, it's very
:37:39. > :37:42.unusual to have one director do the whole thing. In the past you spoke
:37:42. > :37:50.about American directors and said they don't give women the best
:37:50. > :37:53.characters. European women, my point being at that wonderful,
:37:53. > :38:03.brewed European actresses do many films in Europe, go to America, and
:38:03. > :38:03.
:38:03. > :38:07.get nothing. The directors don't understand them. And I feel that,
:38:07. > :38:13.the wonderful actors this year, I am a blanking, who played Edith
:38:13. > :38:18.Piaf, she did one of those action movies but they don't take from her
:38:18. > :38:23.what she has also she has so much to give. So we are going to keep
:38:23. > :38:28.you here? I would certainly love to work more for that she is
:38:28. > :38:33.fantastical are coming back here, doing this role. The BBC, it's a
:38:33. > :38:41.big thing for me. She's not on until Tuesday night, the second
:38:41. > :38:49.part. She's not in the first part. Thank you very much. Lovely to see
:38:49. > :38:51.both. Dancing On The Edge starts on Monday on BBC Two at 9pm. After the
:38:51. > :38:54.9/11 attacks on New York, Tony Blair promised that Britain would
:38:54. > :38:57.stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States in what became known
:38:57. > :39:04.as the war on terror. Recent events in Algeria and Mali demonstrate
:39:04. > :39:08.that the terrorist threat may have moved, but it hasn't gone away. Can
:39:08. > :39:13.it be defeated militarily? And how deeply should British forces be
:39:13. > :39:16.involved? Questions which the former Prime Minister has been
:39:16. > :39:26.reflecting on, saying David Cameron is right to talk of a generational
:39:26. > :39:26.
:39:26. > :39:32.struggle. I'm joined now by Tony Blair. Good morning. When you look
:39:32. > :39:36.at what's happening in Mali at the moment, do you think there is the
:39:36. > :39:40.men, will, resources, for a generation struggle in North
:39:40. > :39:44.Africa? First of all, I think we should acknowledge just how
:39:44. > :39:48.difficult this a decision is. Sometimes in politics you come
:39:48. > :39:54.across a situation where the choice is binary. You go this way or that
:39:54. > :39:56.way but it's ugly and messy, and if we engage with this, not just
:39:56. > :40:02.minutes Howley but over a long period of time, trying to help
:40:02. > :40:07.these countries, it's very, very hard but I think personally the
:40:07. > :40:12.cost of disengaging is going to be even greater. The question is, I
:40:12. > :40:20.suppose, how long you are in there for and how long Britain can afford
:40:20. > :40:23.to be in there for? There is a quote from your mum was. You said,
:40:23. > :40:28."It is even more clear to me that the battle has to be fought with
:40:28. > :40:32.every means at our disposal and fought until it is won". That is a
:40:32. > :40:38.big task because you are fighting a different type of extremism at the
:40:38. > :40:42.moment. Absolutely but that's why it's difficult. If you look at the
:40:42. > :40:47.cost of not engaging and doing what France and Britain are trying to do
:40:47. > :40:53.in at Mali, suppose you let them being taken over by the terrorist
:40:53. > :40:57.group, they took over a portion of Mali the size of Spain, a breeding
:40:57. > :41:03.ground for treasure, suppose Syria disintegrates, 60,000 people have
:41:03. > :41:08.died there already, with a situation the more extreme elements
:41:08. > :41:12.of the opposition will lead the opposition... Do you go into Syria
:41:12. > :41:16.as well? You would least up to try to shape events in the Middle East
:41:16. > :41:20.and Egypt. At the present time, if you don't get political dialogue
:41:20. > :41:24.going but in the different parties, to try to stabilise the economy,
:41:24. > :41:28.you would have a situation where the largest country in the Middle
:41:28. > :41:37.East is in a state of future at fragility, possible breakdown, and
:41:37. > :41:42.then Iran. When you look at this over the time since and 9/11, we
:41:42. > :41:46.always want, in the West, to go in and go out, and think there is a
:41:46. > :41:52.clean result. It's not going to happen like that. It's going to be
:41:52. > :41:57.long and difficult and messy. If you don't intervene, and you just
:41:57. > :42:02.let it happen, it's also going to be a long and difficult and messy
:42:02. > :42:06.and possibly a lot worse, so it's a very difficult decision. I found
:42:06. > :42:09.these decisions are immensely difficult when I was in government
:42:09. > :42:14.and I don't envy David Cameron having to take the decision now,
:42:14. > :42:20.but I think he's right, you have got to take a view that the long-
:42:20. > :42:29.term view and be prepared to engage. When you say long term, decades?
:42:29. > :42:32.don't know. Certainly talking about a generation. If you look at this
:42:32. > :42:36.ideology, it's based on a perversion of religion in the end
:42:36. > :42:40.because that's what makes these countries difficult. I intervened
:42:40. > :42:47.in Kosovo, we went in and came out with a victory. And Sierra Leone,
:42:47. > :42:51.we came up with a victory. Afghanistan? Still there. Very,
:42:51. > :42:56.very difference. The difference is, in those countries, you had a
:42:56. > :43:01.combination of states which had failed to become a rogue states, if
:43:01. > :43:05.you like, plus an element of religion and religious extremism,
:43:05. > :43:10.and so I think the better way to look at it is like the fight the
:43:10. > :43:13.West had over revolutionary communism. It will happen in many
:43:13. > :43:18.different theatres, in many different ways, but there's no
:43:18. > :43:23.option to confronted, and to try to defeated. David Cameron has been
:43:23. > :43:28.quite clear and said, at the moment, in a Mali, the role is a training
:43:29. > :43:33.role for the British forces. Do you think it needs to be, in other
:43:33. > :43:38.places as well, where pockets of extremism is, troops on the ground
:43:38. > :43:42.has to be there? I'm not going to second-guess him on that. There
:43:42. > :43:47.will be different roles in different parts of the world.
:43:47. > :43:52.Sometimes you will use special forces. Sierra Leone, going, Davide,
:43:53. > :43:56.come back out again. Mali is more complicated. In a Sierra Leone,
:43:56. > :44:00.there was a local group that was trying to take over and topple a
:44:00. > :44:08.democratic government but they had no outside connections.
:44:08. > :44:14.Unfortunately, this ideology based on a perversion of the proper face
:44:14. > :44:18.of Islam, it is there in a Mali but has connections all over north up
:44:18. > :44:25.the cup. They are trying to destabilise the northern part of
:44:25. > :44:29.sub-Saharan Africa, so you are the same ideology rising for the these
:44:29. > :44:34.people in Mali are disappearing into the hills. Are they going to
:44:34. > :44:38.turn up somewhere else? A lot of people suggest they came from Libya,
:44:38. > :44:42.for the guns and the men went into Mali and now they're going
:44:42. > :44:47.somewhere else, and we will have to keypad putting fires everywhere in
:44:47. > :44:52.the world. How do we have the resources for that? In that case,
:44:53. > :44:59.it's too difficult, I'm getting out of there? I totally understand that.
:44:59. > :45:03.If you have been through a long drawn-out process in Afghanistan,
:45:04. > :45:08.where we are still struggling, I totally understand why people would
:45:08. > :45:13.say let's get out. Leave them to sort out their own problems, but my
:45:13. > :45:19.fear is that, because this is being driven, by an ideology with a very,
:45:19. > :45:22.very strong desire to push out from the borders of wherever they are,
:45:22. > :45:28.if we do disengage, we will get a different set of problems, further
:45:28. > :45:33.down the line more serious, so that's the choice. You are right,
:45:33. > :45:38.if you drive these people into the hills, when you go, they come back,
:45:38. > :45:44.so how do then stay there for the long term? I studied as a lot since
:45:44. > :45:48.I left office, I work in 20 countries around the world in one
:45:48. > :45:53.way or another, and I have learned two things which are important. We
:45:53. > :45:56.have got to put effort into building capacity in the States
:45:56. > :46:00.which could fail to govern themselves sensibly and that can be
:46:00. > :46:06.done in a different way but it's really, really important, and the
:46:06. > :46:12.second thing is, we have to do with religious extremism and deal with
:46:12. > :46:15.it in these places as religion. By trying to create a sense of
:46:15. > :46:25.circumstances for example in how children are educated in these
:46:25. > :46:31.
:46:31. > :46:35.countries, to lead them to an open- You talk about an Islamist ideology.
:46:35. > :46:39.There is no one ideology. It is not alquidia you are fighting in
:46:39. > :46:44.Pakistan and Afghanistan. This is a new kind of threat? It is linked by
:46:44. > :46:48.a common thread. You are right in a sense. I'm not suggesting there is
:46:48. > :46:52.a command and Control Centre with a designated leader. That's
:46:52. > :46:56.absolutely true but if you look over the Middle East and North
:46:56. > :47:02.Africa and through into Central Asia, now. There is an identifyable
:47:02. > :47:05.ideology, that's based on a perversion of religion. It may have
:47:05. > :47:10.its many different off-shoots but they have that in common. So,
:47:10. > :47:13.trying to deal with that element of it and being express about it. You
:47:14. > :47:18.know, saying - let's get that out there on the table and see how we
:47:18. > :47:21.deal with it, I think is really important. Here is good news in all
:47:22. > :47:26.of the bad news. Every where I go, no matter how difficult the
:47:26. > :47:32.situation of the country, in truth, the majority of the people in those
:47:32. > :47:35.countries want the same things as we want. They want to be able to
:47:35. > :47:38.elect their government. They want religion in its right place. They
:47:38. > :47:44.want a better rule of law. They want it raise children with a
:47:44. > :47:48.chance of prosperity. They want to know if they work and play by the
:47:48. > :47:50.rules they can get somewhere. The majority of people, even in the
:47:50. > :47:54.countries where the worst trouble, is want something better. Rather
:47:54. > :47:57.than disengage, we have to help them get there. So, wherever you
:47:57. > :48:02.see this flame of militant Islam, you are suggesting Britain should
:48:02. > :48:06.get involved militarily in some form or another? I'm not suggesting
:48:06. > :48:11.it has to be militarily it. Could be very different ways. Where
:48:11. > :48:14.should it be militarily? It depends on the nature of the threat. For
:48:14. > :48:18.example in Mali. Think France is right and it is a courageous
:48:18. > :48:26.decision of President Hollande to go if n there and intrin right to
:48:26. > :48:31.give support. There would be -- there and Britain is right to give
:48:31. > :48:34.support. Well 60,000 people have been killed there in two years.
:48:34. > :48:39.Should Britain intervene there in Syria? It is not just a question of
:48:39. > :48:42.Britain, it is for the West. The question is how. It is very hard.
:48:42. > :48:48.You know, if you arm the opposition, who are you arming? I have been
:48:48. > :48:56.suggesting for a long time you try to create safe havens for the - you
:48:56. > :49:03.know for the Syrian opposition to operate from. But I do think Al-
:49:03. > :49:06.Sadr - Assad has to know he can not carry on what he is doing which is
:49:06. > :49:12.businessically because the Syrian Army won't engage with the rebel
:49:12. > :49:16.forces in hand-to-hand gt, they are firing scud missiles and heavy
:49:16. > :49:20.artillery into entire villages and wiping them out. The devastation is
:49:20. > :49:24.extraordinary. My anxiety about Syria, although some people think
:49:24. > :49:27.if you look at Syria, OK it's a terrible tragedy, humanitarian
:49:27. > :49:32.tragedy, but does it have any regional consequences? Well, I
:49:32. > :49:37.would say it does. If that spills out from Syria. What does Britain
:49:37. > :49:42.do? I think we have not just Britain, but what the West has to
:49:42. > :49:46.do is see how it can bring this to an end now. Now, that's partly
:49:46. > :49:51.through trying to get Russia into a different position. I know efforts
:49:51. > :49:54.are happening to that end. I also think you have got to... Three UN
:49:54. > :49:57.resolutions they have not backed. We have to be careful about putting
:49:57. > :50:00.all our eggs in that basket. But there are certain things we can do
:50:01. > :50:05.to help strengthen the opposition and make it clear to Assad in the
:50:05. > :50:11.end he is not going to win this and he is not going to have a stalemate.
:50:11. > :50:16.It will West End his defeat and his going. The question is: is he gsh
:50:16. > :50:19.it will end in his defeat. Otherwise the risk is, and you see
:50:19. > :50:23.this from other countries that have gone through this process of
:50:23. > :50:26.revolution, you end up with a situation which the state then
:50:26. > :50:31.starts to collapse. You mentioned yourself the difficulties of
:50:31. > :50:36.getting a UN resolution with Russia already having rejected it a few
:50:36. > :50:41.times. Is the only answer to go in? No, I don't think you are ever
:50:41. > :50:44.going to go in in the sense of British troops on the ground. The
:50:44. > :50:48.question is, what more can you do to help the opposition? There are
:50:48. > :50:52.options there which I thinks is important to look at. Can I turn to
:50:52. > :50:57.Europe, which is a battle that David Cameron is having. At the
:50:57. > :51:03.moment he wants to reform Britain's relationship with Europe and then
:51:03. > :51:07.have a in-out referendum. You said, when you heard his speech, 90%
:51:07. > :51:10.resonated with you and you agreed with 90% of it. What about the in-
:51:10. > :51:18.out referendum, wouldn't that be a way of solving things once and for
:51:18. > :51:25.all, sn drawing a line under it. is -- draw and drawing a line under
:51:25. > :51:28.it it. If the case is - should Europe reform? That's a case made
:51:29. > :51:32.by many Prime Ministers, Margaret Thatcher, Gordon Brown, John Major.
:51:32. > :51:36.And step by step there have been significant reforms in Europe as a
:51:36. > :51:42.result of that. So where it is about - should Europe reform, I'm
:51:42. > :51:50.100% with him actually. It is where you say - but if it doesn't, then
:51:50. > :51:56.we want out. That, you know that is to put the "out" question on the
:51:56. > :51:59.ballot paper. First of all it creates we are in an uncertain
:51:59. > :52:04.situation. Everywhere I go, people say - is Britain really going to
:52:04. > :52:07.get out of Europe snuck not answer that conclusively. Secondly, the
:52:07. > :52:11.overwhelming likelihood of what will happen is he will try to get
:52:11. > :52:14.certain changes in Europe. He may get some. He will only get them by
:52:14. > :52:17.saying there is going to be a referendum if you do it, surely.
:52:17. > :52:21.I'm not sure about that. Remember, other countries in Europe also have
:52:21. > :52:25.their politics. If you are talking about reforming yuefrplt you are
:52:25. > :52:29.talking about the interests of 27 - - reforming Europe. If you are
:52:29. > :52:33.saying Britain's relationship with Europe, it is one verses 26. You
:52:33. > :52:36.better make sure they are lined up behind that. If they are not and
:52:36. > :52:40.any one say no. I cannot really believe that David Cameron thinks
:52:40. > :52:45.it is sensible to get out of Europe, even if he doesn't achieve all that
:52:45. > :52:49.of agenda. You see what I mean? It depends if he gets re-elected but
:52:49. > :52:55.you are in a situation where four or five years down the line, until
:52:55. > :52:59.then there is uncertainty and at that point, who knows what might
:52:59. > :53:02.happen and if Britain did vote for out, I think it would be a huge
:53:02. > :53:07.problem for our country. The bring to realise about Europe is the
:53:07. > :53:11.rational is not about peace. That was my father's generation. The
:53:11. > :53:16.rational for Europe today is power. Inal world of China with 1.3
:53:16. > :53:20.billion people and India with over a billion and increasingly because
:53:20. > :53:25.of mobile capital and technology, you know, the weight of your
:53:25. > :53:30.country's economy is linked to your population. So in time to come,
:53:30. > :53:36.Britain, 60 million people a small island nation, if we want it
:53:36. > :53:39.exercise weight and influence and power in the world, why would we
:53:39. > :53:45.separate ourselves from the biggest political union and largest
:53:45. > :53:48.supermarket on our doorstep. there was a referendum you would
:53:48. > :53:51.stand alongside David Cameron, Ed Miliband and everyone else
:53:51. > :53:56.campaigning to stay? Sure, if they are campaigning to stay. In if it
:53:56. > :54:01.got to, that you would be doing that. But I think the tricky
:54:01. > :54:05.question is this: look I spent ten years going through European
:54:05. > :54:10.negotiation. You wanted an in-out referendum at one stage on the EU
:54:10. > :54:15.constitution. Not in-out. "I thought we might turn it into a
:54:15. > :54:19.referendum which is effectively in or out. I fancied mounting a big
:54:19. > :54:23.argument on the issue I felt strongly Balthough a tough
:54:23. > :54:26.challenge, I relished the fight." That would have been a referendum
:54:26. > :54:30.saying - do you agree with the new European constitution or not? It
:54:30. > :54:34.would not have been a referendum saying - if you don't, we should
:54:34. > :54:37.leave. The fact of the matter if we had ended up - look you had to have
:54:37. > :54:41.a referendum because Europe proposed a new constitution. I was
:54:41. > :54:44.reluctant to d it, but in the end I accepted we had to have it. What we
:54:44. > :54:47.are doing in this instance - because this would be perfectly
:54:47. > :54:52.sensible if David Cameron said - I have agreed a certain amount of
:54:52. > :54:57.changes and now I want to put those changes to a referendum. That's one
:54:57. > :55:02.thing. It's the "out" bit of it. Once you put that on the ballot
:55:02. > :55:07.paper, you are then in a situation where, who knows what the
:55:07. > :55:12.circumstances will be. The problem with referendums, which is why you
:55:12. > :55:19.should only use them when it is absolutely res, I then general
:55:19. > :55:24.degall once said, it is about as much about who asked the que, as
:55:24. > :55:29.the question. Deborah math inson has been involved in public opinion
:55:29. > :55:33.for years. She said looking at Labour, the Conservatives seem to
:55:33. > :55:38.have a clear message whether it is Europe or reform. But when it comes
:55:38. > :55:43.to Labour, the public are not quite clear what it stands for. Are you?
:55:43. > :55:46.I'm quite clear. What is it? stands for a society to combine
:55:46. > :55:50.economic prosperity with social justice. But you had New Labour and
:55:50. > :55:55.Ed Miliband sort of sidelined that in his conference speech and said -
:55:55. > :55:58.now we are One Nation. What does that men? I think what it means is,
:55:58. > :56:01.in circumstances where the country has very difficult challenges, it's
:56:01. > :56:06.important that it handles them as one and that you don't end up
:56:06. > :56:10.simply governing for a small group of people at the stop. -- top. I
:56:10. > :56:14.understand the Labour Party message. By the way, what Ed is trying to do
:56:14. > :56:18.is tougher than what I had to do. When I became Labour leader, we
:56:18. > :56:21.lost four elections. This is attempting to bounce back and win
:56:21. > :56:26.after a heavy defeat. You had a clear strategy about what Labour
:56:26. > :56:32.was and what it needed to do to win. Sure. Before you came in in '97.
:56:32. > :56:35.What is Ed Miliband's clear vision? What is the message? The one you
:56:35. > :56:39.have given - if we face difficult and testing times, we should face
:56:39. > :56:42.them together. The burden should be shared equally and we have to
:56:42. > :56:45.create an economy for the future in which opportunity is given to the
:56:45. > :56:50.many and not the few. I don't think it is a problem with the vision,
:56:50. > :56:56.actually. I think what there will be, is a big challenge when it
:56:56. > :57:00.comes to - how do you translate that into practical policy. Sn
:57:00. > :57:02.that's -- that's for later in this year when the Labour will unveil
:57:02. > :57:06.its policies. This is a situation where the economy is very tough,
:57:06. > :57:10.where we are going to face a situation, whoever is in Government,
:57:10. > :57:13.they are going to be very constrained. That's why it will be
:57:13. > :57:16.important for the Labour Party to show it is reformers, they are
:57:16. > :57:21.reformers and they are able to reform public services, welfare,
:57:21. > :57:24.the state and so on, as well as simply protect people who are
:57:24. > :57:28.vulnerable. So a clear policy has to emerge by the end of this year.
:57:28. > :57:32.That's what you seem to be saying, if they are going to wint election?
:57:32. > :57:37.They are an opposition party. I don't favour hugely detailed policy
:57:37. > :57:41.but the orientation will be clear. Do you advise Ed Miliband, does he
:57:41. > :57:45.talk to you? I talk to him. I don't presume to advise him or anyone
:57:45. > :57:48.else. You talk to David Cameron, officially, unofficially, both?
:57:48. > :57:53.talk to him from time to time as well. Look, when you have gone
:57:53. > :57:56.through this all this and sat in the seat, both adds Leader of the
:57:56. > :58:02.Opposition and Prime Minister, you know how damned difficult both jobs
:58:02. > :58:05.are. I come to a sense of - believe it or not humility about this - I
:58:05. > :58:11.know it is really difficult. The last thing I want to do with either
:58:11. > :58:16.individual, by the way, is end up, you know, being one of those sort
:58:17. > :58:20.of pains in the neck that sit in the back seat saying - I would have
:58:20. > :58:25.done this and that. On something like Europe, I will speak out but
:58:25. > :58:29.even then I try to do it respectively. I don't - for Ed and
:58:29. > :58:33.for David Cameron, if they ever want help or advice I would try to
:58:33. > :58:37.give it in what I thought was the best interest of the country.
:58:37. > :58:41.much more we could get through. That's all we have time for. Thank
:58:41. > :58:47.you very much, Tony Blair. That is all we have time for today. Thanks
:58:47. > :58:53.to all my guests this morning. Next Sunday James Landale will be here,