:00:00. > :00:07.people are celebrating the Queen's 90th birthday.
:00:08. > :00:11.The Kingdom, meanwhile, has never been closer to leaving the EU.
:00:12. > :00:13.11 days to go, and no-one - but no-one -
:00:14. > :00:37.My guests this week: Prime Minister David Cameron,
:00:38. > :00:43.on the edge of pulling off an audacious gamble
:00:44. > :00:49.or presiding over a catastrophic misjudgment.
:00:50. > :00:51.And Ukip's Nigel Farage, the rebel leader
:00:52. > :01:00.close to dramatically changing the course of this country.
:01:01. > :01:03.And on this very important weekend,
:01:04. > :01:05.analysing the referendum news and much else,
:01:06. > :01:08.including what's happening in America,
:01:09. > :01:12.former Bush advisor and Republican commentator David Frum,
:01:13. > :01:18.and from the TaxPayers' Alliance, Dia Chakravarty.
:01:19. > :01:22.Now, we are not a programme that constantly blows its own trumpet,
:01:23. > :01:29.so we've invited the very best here to do it for us.
:01:30. > :01:32.Alison Balsom, who's not only a front-line musician herself,
:01:33. > :01:35.but is encouraging all of us to go back to those musical instruments
:01:36. > :01:38.we abandoned as children and get playing again.
:01:39. > :01:43.But first, the news with Ben Thompson.
:01:44. > :01:45.Europe's football governing body, Uefa,
:01:46. > :01:49.says it'll investigate violent clashes in Marseille last night
:01:50. > :01:51.at the end of England's 1-1 draw against Russia.
:01:52. > :01:54.A group of Russians broke through a thin line of stewards
:01:55. > :01:58.to throw punches and kicks and steal England flags.
:01:59. > :02:00.It's the third day of attacks and skirmishes
:02:01. > :02:05.in the French port city, as Simon Clemison reports.
:02:06. > :02:09.The match is over, the violence left outside, or is it?
:02:10. > :02:17.A white seating block is emptying, and here's why -
:02:18. > :02:19.it appears Russian supporters were chasing the English
:02:20. > :02:21.across the stand, a flare having been let off.
:02:22. > :02:24.This kind of outbreak is highly unusual.
:02:25. > :02:27.And yet security is meant to be ultra-tight,
:02:28. > :02:28.raising big questions for the authorities.
:02:29. > :02:32.they started to invade the England fans in the corner.
:02:33. > :02:37.Of course, the English supporters ran, and they had nowhere to go.
:02:38. > :02:40.I just saw a bunch of Russian fans running over to the England fans,
:02:41. > :02:44.and all the England fans were running off
:02:45. > :02:47.and jumping over the fence, it was awful.
:02:48. > :02:49.So the operation on the streets of Marseille overnight
:02:50. > :02:57.on the threat being posed by terrorists.
:02:58. > :03:00.but no repeat of yesterday's ugly scenes,
:03:01. > :03:02.when suddenly the clashes got much more serious.
:03:03. > :03:07.Police say both sides were involved, along with the French.
:03:08. > :03:10.But it is only small groups which are thought
:03:11. > :03:13.to be causing problems, although the tournament
:03:14. > :03:16.is only 24 hours old - these are the early stages.
:03:17. > :03:19.This country desperately wants to focus on the football,
:03:20. > :03:25.The Eiffel Tower paying tribute to a first appearance by Wales
:03:26. > :03:30.David Cameron has warned that the UK economy would shrink
:03:31. > :03:32.if the country votes to leave the European Union.
:03:33. > :03:35.He said spending on health and pensions would suffer.
:03:36. > :03:39.Former Conservative Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith,
:03:40. > :03:43.from the Leave campaign, described his warning as
:03:44. > :03:45.a "vindictive and desperate attempt to bully and frighten pensioners."
:03:46. > :03:47.Meanwhile, the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby,
:03:48. > :03:53.has said he will vote for the UK to remain in the EU.
:03:54. > :03:56.Celebrations continue for the Queen's 90th birthday weekend.
:03:57. > :03:59.Today, Her Majesty will attend a huge street party
:04:00. > :04:02.with 10,000 guests on the Mall for the Patron's Lunch.
:04:03. > :04:05.It's a celebration of the Queen's patronage of charities
:04:06. > :04:08.and organisations across the UK and the Commonwealth.
:04:09. > :04:12.where guests will enjoy a picnic afternoon tea,
:04:13. > :04:21.and there will be a procession of entertainers.
:04:22. > :04:26.Within the last few minutes, reports coming in from Orlando, where it is
:04:27. > :04:31.believed a gunman has taken hostages at a gay nightclub in the city.
:04:32. > :04:36.There is a suggestion that a number of people have been shot at the
:04:37. > :04:39.Pulse club. Photos and social media show dozens of emergency vehicles at
:04:40. > :04:41.the scene. No official details of the incident have yet been given.
:04:42. > :04:43.That's all from me, for now. Back to you, Andrew.
:04:44. > :04:46.Now to the papers, and with me to review
:04:47. > :04:49.the papers are David Frum, Helena Kennedy and Dia Chakrabarty.
:04:50. > :04:57.A lot of politics, a lot of Europe, Justin Welby talking to the Mail on
:04:58. > :05:02.Sunday, voting in, and a lot of the coverage is about David Cameron's
:05:03. > :05:07.claim that Brexit may put pensions at risk or NHS ringfencing or you
:05:08. > :05:13.name it! And there is the front of the Observer with England fans
:05:14. > :05:16.rioting at the top. The Sunday Telegraph, PM's Brexit pensions
:05:17. > :05:20.warning, and like many papers, pictures of the Royal Family on the
:05:21. > :05:24.balcony. The Sunday Times has a different take, a leaked UK plan,
:05:25. > :05:29.from diplomats, they say, to open the door to 1 million Turks,
:05:30. > :05:32.diplomat in Ankara and advising that in order to stop Turkey leading in
:05:33. > :05:38.millions and millions of refugees, they might have to let 1 million or
:05:39. > :05:42.so Turks have special passports into the UK. We will talk to the Prime
:05:43. > :05:46.Minister about that, and a slightly unsettling picture of Boris Johnson
:05:47. > :05:51.wearing mascara and lipstick, part of Project Fear, I am sure you
:05:52. > :05:56.agree! The Sunday express, panic grips Downing Street, they will say
:05:57. > :06:09.gleefully. And the Sunday Mirror is spread between happy and inglorious.
:06:10. > :06:16.You have chosen a big spread from the Observer. It is easy, and we
:06:17. > :06:21.have got this on the front of the papers, this shameful behaviour on
:06:22. > :06:24.the part of British fans, and yet at the same time it is a more
:06:25. > :06:28.complicated story, because the level of brutality meted out by Russian
:06:29. > :06:33.fans seems to be extraordinary, and they have gone with hand axis, with
:06:34. > :06:37.weapons and so on. And so we are talking about something that really
:06:38. > :06:43.is ugly, and it is kind of interesting that it is the bringing
:06:44. > :06:47.together of the most an attractive end of the European family, I am
:06:48. > :06:51.afraid, and it is actually about fascist elements operating here.
:06:52. > :07:05.Most of the English fans were not doing that, and that easy thing
:07:06. > :07:07.about in -- inglorious Britain, because this turned into something
:07:08. > :07:12.truly different, because of the way in which gangs used this, and it is
:07:13. > :07:17.partly about the old reputation still lingering. You know, the Brits
:07:18. > :07:21.are up for a fight, but it turned incredibly ugly... Worrying that the
:07:22. > :07:27.Russians were able to bring flares and fireworks and stuff and
:07:28. > :07:30.gunpowder into a stadium weather is supposed to be incredibly strong
:07:31. > :07:33.anti-terrorist security. It is one of the reasons why you have to have
:07:34. > :07:36.close proximity between police forces working across borders in
:07:37. > :07:41.order to deal with this stuff, but one of the ugly things was, hearing
:07:42. > :07:48.some of the fans actually chanting about being rightly Brexiteers, that
:07:49. > :07:54.is not going to win much friendship across Europe, if that is the face
:07:55. > :07:57.of some of the argument. But I do think that here this is about
:07:58. > :08:01.something else, and we shouldn't automatically reach for our
:08:02. > :08:05.criticism of that. I think that we are talking about something else. A
:08:06. > :08:09.very good spread in the Observer talking about how the Russian media
:08:10. > :08:14.has boasted about the Russians coming out on top in this disgusting
:08:15. > :08:17.display. Not very good. One of the problems of the referendum is that
:08:18. > :08:21.we enjoy the rest of the world, and we should not ignore what is going
:08:22. > :08:28.on in your country, particularly interesting. You have a Hillary
:08:29. > :08:32.Clinton story from the internet. ABC News. How is it that Hillary
:08:33. > :08:39.Clinton, quite popular here, I understand, has had so much trouble
:08:40. > :08:45.putting away an unfunny Larry David imitated inside her party? Bernie
:08:46. > :08:51.Sanders. And finds a sub running close to Donald Trump, who strikes
:08:52. > :08:57.many people as completely implausible as a candidate. -- finds
:08:58. > :09:00.herself. Many Americans regarded as people and self-seeking, and this is
:09:01. > :09:14.a new story that give some perspective that
:09:15. > :09:21.explains why... This man had given huge amount of money first to the
:09:22. > :09:27.Clinton campaign and the Clinton Foundation, getting close to the
:09:28. > :09:31.security system, and he is a Clinton super delegate as well. New e-mails
:09:32. > :09:36.have surfaced that this was personally directed by Hillary
:09:37. > :09:40.Clinton's chief of staff, who directed that they be stalled, and
:09:41. > :09:44.that is her own e-mail address. You are a Republican, you have been a
:09:45. > :09:47.Republican commentator for a very long time, so would you prefer to
:09:48. > :09:55.see Donald Trump Peter Lawrie Clinton or not? My preferences get
:09:56. > :10:06.in a way of pointing out what is important here. This is why it is so
:10:07. > :10:10.hard for her. This is a big negative for her. When she made her
:10:11. > :10:14.announcement address, she said, many of you think I am in this for
:10:15. > :10:19.myself, and you address that because you know it is a widespread feeling.
:10:20. > :10:25.It is a good story to explain what is the anchor weighing down the
:10:26. > :10:29.Clinton campaign. I'm sorry, but this is something you are going to
:10:30. > :10:32.hear more and more from a panicked Republican Party, who really cannot
:10:33. > :10:36.stand the idea that Hillary Clinton is going to end up in the White
:10:37. > :10:41.House, even when they are saddled with Trump. It is so one fair,
:10:42. > :10:48.because this man has great technical skill... He is a commodity trader.
:10:49. > :10:56.He has got considerable technical skill, and that is what they are
:10:57. > :10:59.talking about. Let's now moved to own controversies, the story about
:11:00. > :11:05.the Prime Minister's warnings about pensions being cut. Yes, this adds
:11:06. > :11:09.on to a number of stories that have come out of the Remain side lately,
:11:10. > :11:15.talking about how disastrous it is going to be the us if we leave the
:11:16. > :11:18.EU. This is another example, and we have heard this will be taken away
:11:19. > :11:23.from you, that will be taken away from you. This is now particularly
:11:24. > :11:28.looking at pensioners, we know this is a group that votes more than a
:11:29. > :11:31.lot of other groups, so it is important for David Cameron. The
:11:32. > :11:34.Tories have done this in the past, they have a way of keeping the
:11:35. > :11:44.pensioners sweet, to get that vote out. This is an extension of it.
:11:45. > :11:47.This is based on the IFS warning of a ?20 billion black hole, so
:11:48. > :11:52.difficult decisions will have to be taken. You are a Brexit support
:11:53. > :11:57.yourself. I certainly am, although the TaxPayers' Alliance does not
:11:58. > :12:01.take a view on this. These are all... Economics is speculative on
:12:02. > :12:05.both sides, these are all predictions, and economists to get
:12:06. > :12:08.them wrong. I do not blame them for getting them wrong, these are hard
:12:09. > :12:13.predictions to get right. What I blame them for is claiming that this
:12:14. > :12:16.is infallible, which it is not. Here we have a situation where David
:12:17. > :12:20.Cameron seems to be saying, if it happens that we have an economic
:12:21. > :12:28.disaster, we cannot be sure that we can protect you pensioners from what
:12:29. > :12:31.comes from it. But again, that is speculative. It is a bed thing to
:12:32. > :12:35.say, in a sense, it is about likelihoods and percentages. But why
:12:36. > :12:38.isn't it also a question of priorities for David Cameron? If he
:12:39. > :12:43.thinks that their benefits should remain, you know, he will still be
:12:44. > :12:46.in the Government, or some form of it, the Conservative Party
:12:47. > :12:49.presumably will still be in government. If they want this
:12:50. > :12:53.election on that mandate, why can't they say that this is something we
:12:54. > :12:58.will protect, if they think it is what they want to do? This is the
:12:59. > :13:03.problem for those who want to leave Europe, you do not have any serious
:13:04. > :13:07.economists on your side. All the big international economic bodies are
:13:08. > :13:12.saying, this is not a good idea, and you say it is speculative - it is
:13:13. > :13:17.not, it has all been modelled and block that with great care. It is
:13:18. > :13:21.still all speculative, and as you well know, this is essentially a
:13:22. > :13:26.debate between... We have said this before, but this is the case, even
:13:27. > :13:32.Andrew Mitchell, part of the Remain campaign... Is this the BBC trying
:13:33. > :13:37.to be fair? You have had a fair amount of time too. I want to move
:13:38. > :13:42.to the Labour side of the argument, however, which is that it does seem
:13:43. > :13:45.the Labour Party is losing votes to Ukip in the North in particular, and
:13:46. > :13:49.your message has not got through to traditional voters. It is something
:13:50. > :13:53.the Labour Party has to be really worried about, and in many places,
:13:54. > :13:56.where in fact there are not even immigrants, people appearing the
:13:57. > :14:01.idea that the future of their children will be affected by
:14:02. > :14:03.immigration, and where there are very few people from anywhere else
:14:04. > :14:08.in Europe or abroad. But the point about it is that a rather nasty
:14:09. > :14:12.campaign has caught the public attention, so that people think that
:14:13. > :14:16.their ills are about immigration, rather than being about a government
:14:17. > :14:20.that has made choices on austerity which has greatly affected the
:14:21. > :14:26.family lives of people that are not well off. I think that, if people
:14:27. > :14:35.that upset about migration, maybe we should to them. You misunderstand
:14:36. > :14:40.your problem, maybe it would be respectful to say, I hear it. You
:14:41. > :14:44.have ugly politics being run up the flagpole, that is happening in your
:14:45. > :14:50.country too, but we really have to hone in on... Let me bring you a
:14:51. > :14:54.warning from America, which is if you have a legitimate concern, and
:14:55. > :14:58.responsible people do not address it, you get Donald Trump - don't
:14:59. > :15:07.wait for Donald Trump to address your migration problems.
:15:08. > :15:13.Let's move to the David Cameron interview. I'm a great admirer of
:15:14. > :15:19.David Cameron. He has been the right man for the time. One thing that has
:15:20. > :15:21.been painful is watching the conservative coalition be smashed,
:15:22. > :15:31.not just by the vote but by the way it has been handled. You hear is
:15:32. > :15:35.talking about the vote, Nigel Farage supporters will feel it is a lot
:15:36. > :15:43.broader to returning to the coalition. That it is a locked door.
:15:44. > :15:48.Migration is a massive issue. Angela Merkel's message, unbelievably
:15:49. > :15:57.irresponsible, is one of the drivers in shattering confidence in the
:15:58. > :16:04.European Union. The Mac are you a Brexit supporter? America has always
:16:05. > :16:08.wanted to see Europe to be a stronger, more reliable friend.
:16:09. > :16:14.Obviously, British people will have this integrity of British democracy
:16:15. > :16:21.close. The Mac I want to see one more thing... Please don't. We need
:16:22. > :16:28.to review the papers as well. There is an interview with Boris Johnson.
:16:29. > :16:35.This is quite an interesting interview with Boris Johnson. They
:16:36. > :16:42.put questions like, you're part of the establishment as well, having
:16:43. > :16:49.been to Eton and Oxford. Let's not forget on the other side they are
:16:50. > :16:55.also part of that. Why is it establishment? What was interesting
:16:56. > :17:01.is when asked whether he regrets saying anything in the past, he gave
:17:02. > :17:05.quite a candid answer, he says, I don't, I'm trying to tell it exactly
:17:06. > :17:09.as I see it. People know that I sometimes say things that can be
:17:10. > :17:13.misconstrued but I need to be as painful to what I think as I
:17:14. > :17:19.possibly can, that has got me into trouble and also got me out of it. I
:17:20. > :17:23.thought that was quite candid. The cause we all laugh at him, and think
:17:24. > :17:36.he says things that are not scripted, but that is who years. --
:17:37. > :17:39.who he is. The last story. I think we've had a major intervention by
:17:40. > :17:46.Justin Welby, you says Brexit will hit the economy, we should know
:17:47. > :17:50.that, the EU needs reform, the referendum is about so much more, it
:17:51. > :17:56.is a vote for peace, stability and the values we fought for in two
:17:57. > :18:00.world wars. He is talking about bridge building, and we should be
:18:01. > :18:03.going back to the principles behind this. Thank you all very much.
:18:04. > :18:06.And so to the weather, I've been very lucky this week,
:18:07. > :18:09.Glasgow was like Barcelona on a good day.
:18:10. > :18:13.as the muggy South has endured thunderplump after thunderplump.
:18:14. > :18:23.So what can we expect this week? Here's Tomasz Schafernaker.
:18:24. > :18:34.I'm being told what schadenfreude means! I tell you what, the weather
:18:35. > :18:39.is all over the place. Not just today but tomorrow, Tuesday,
:18:40. > :18:46.Wednesday, quite possibly Thursday and Friday. It is a mishmash. You
:18:47. > :18:53.can see heavy showers across northern areas, the South as well.
:18:54. > :18:55.The best advice is, if you are out for any lengthy period of time, take
:18:56. > :19:09.your on Brad. -- on Brad R. There will be more rain around, it
:19:10. > :19:18.will be another marquee, close mate. 14 degrees in London. Once again,
:19:19. > :19:28.more of the same tomorrow. Sunshine and showers through the course of
:19:29. > :19:34.the day. Temperatures may get up to 20 degrees. The week ahead, more
:19:35. > :19:37.showers, coastal areas could enjoy some sun.
:19:38. > :19:40.Chairman Mao began his long march to power in Jiangxi Province.
:19:41. > :19:45.it was an agreeable saloon bar somewhere in Kent.
:19:46. > :19:49.But for him too, it's been an astonishing journey.
:19:50. > :19:52.Dismissed and ridiculed for years, he is perhaps the man
:19:53. > :19:54.most responsible for taking us so close
:19:55. > :20:12.I say you are responsible, partly because I presume David Cameron help
:20:13. > :20:18.the referendum to scupper you. It was to shoot the Ukip Fox. The
:20:19. > :20:26.perception was it was Tory votes, but ironically we probably had
:20:27. > :20:31.Labour more. He went into the election promising a referendum, he
:20:32. > :20:35.got a majority, he spent much of last year saying Britain could do
:20:36. > :20:41.fine outside the European Union and he would not rule anything out in
:20:42. > :20:46.terms of which way he would vote, now it's a daily Prophet of doom as
:20:47. > :20:51.to what would happen to our pensioners and everybody else. Which
:20:52. > :20:57.is the real David Cameron? On Friday, when the markets closed, the
:20:58. > :21:05.Footsie was down 100 points, nearly ?40 billion was wiped off. It is a
:21:06. > :21:08.fact and these are not Europhile scaremongers, these are hard-nosed
:21:09. > :21:18.people trying to praise the risk of Brexit. I worked in this free 20
:21:19. > :21:24.years. Sterling is up since March. What happened on Friday was very bad
:21:25. > :21:30.economic figures from America and the fact that the growth forecast
:21:31. > :21:35.was downgraded and borrowing is still out of control. These are
:21:36. > :21:43.ludicrous scare stories being put up. Even if sterling were to fall
:21:44. > :21:47.after Brexit, so what? We have a floating currency and it would be
:21:48. > :21:54.good for exports. I will tell you so what. I bumped into our man in the
:21:55. > :21:58.park and he said, all my friends and family are voting to leave but I
:21:59. > :22:01.cannot because I have investments and pensions and I'm really worried
:22:02. > :22:08.about what is going to happen. He looks at the forecasts and that is
:22:09. > :22:17.why he's worried. I understand that these relentless scare tactics, some
:22:18. > :22:21.people are being scared. Let me say this, the IFF is, this great
:22:22. > :22:26.independent god of economic forecasting is funded mostly by the
:22:27. > :22:32.British government and over 10% of their income comes from the European
:22:33. > :22:37.Union. You're not saying they are a corrupt organisation. I am seeing
:22:38. > :22:41.75% of their funding comes from the British government and the EU. You
:22:42. > :22:47.are saying we should not trust what they say? I'm saying if you work for
:22:48. > :22:52.the government and the EU and you ask to produce a report, you don't
:22:53. > :22:55.bite the hand that feeds you. That is a very serious allegation against
:22:56. > :23:02.people regarded as gold standard advisers. Well at the start you said
:23:03. > :23:09.was it in a saloon bar in Kent, actually it was London. I said
:23:10. > :23:14.London as well. All the experts said it would be good for Britain to join
:23:15. > :23:19.this and I thought it would not, the experts said if we did not join the
:23:20. > :23:24.euro it would be doomed. Investment would dry up. The central point is,
:23:25. > :23:27.everything the Prime Minister and George Osborne says is predicated on
:23:28. > :23:33.the idea that we are part of something that is good for the
:23:34. > :23:38.British economy, and the answer is, for tariff free access to the
:23:39. > :23:46.European market, we need to pay a net membership fee of ?34 million a
:23:47. > :23:51.day, accept regulation on the 84% of our economy that is not exports to
:23:52. > :24:01.European countries, and we have to accept... But surely the single
:24:02. > :24:04.market has been useful for British... The common market was
:24:05. > :24:09.good for us, it gave us a bigger market. The single market is
:24:10. > :24:13.actually inhibiting us in a world, we live in a global economy and
:24:14. > :24:18.nobody talks about this, we put up trade barriers against countries all
:24:19. > :24:23.over the world as part of the EU and my answer is this, we are not
:24:24. > :24:25.leaving Europe, we are divorcing ourselves from feeling political
:24:26. > :24:32.union so we can re-engage with the world. If we vote to leave them a
:24:33. > :24:36.lot depends on the kind of negotiation that follows and you say
:24:37. > :24:40.it will be up and nine negotiation, they will not cut off their noses to
:24:41. > :24:46.spite their faces but I say that is unlikely. You want to see the end of
:24:47. > :24:54.the EU and this to be the solution and collapse of the EU structures.
:24:55. > :25:00.The people we will be negotiating with will be very angry and not want
:25:01. > :25:04.to negotiate in a friendly way. I tell you who is angry, the people of
:25:05. > :25:11.Europe, they said they did not vote for this, they finished up with a
:25:12. > :25:15.currency that has made beggars of the South, a migrant policy
:25:16. > :25:23.tailoring countries apart. There is a tariff free area that extends from
:25:24. > :25:28.Iceland to Turkey. That exist. We are eurozone's biggest market. There
:25:29. > :25:33.are elections coming up next year in France and Germany. This will take a
:25:34. > :25:39.long time, beyond those negotiations. The most powerful
:25:40. > :25:44.lobby in the whole of Europe is the German car industry. They need this
:25:45. > :25:51.market very badly. Even if things did go wrong, let us just assume,
:25:52. > :25:57.and Angela Merkel is happy to see hundreds of thousands of German car
:25:58. > :26:04.workers laid off. Even in that scenario, the benefit we join for is
:26:05. > :26:08.outweighed by the net membership fee alone. The worst-case scenario,
:26:09. > :26:15.economic way, is better than where we are today and gives us the chance
:26:16. > :26:20.to start thinking globally. For the last 70 years we've had peace in
:26:21. > :26:23.Europe, we've had a much longer history where every time there has
:26:24. > :26:28.been trouble in Europe we've had to get involved and spend our blood and
:26:29. > :26:33.our treasure. Are you absolutely sure that the collapse of the EU is
:26:34. > :26:38.not going to be angry, difficult, divisive and cause more problems? If
:26:39. > :26:44.we had been part of a greater Europe we would not have been able to
:26:45. > :26:52.intervene in the last two Mac wars. That is a debating point. Look at
:26:53. > :26:57.Europe's role in the break-up of Yugoslavia. Look at Greece. Look at
:26:58. > :27:01.the rise of the extreme politics of the extreme right and the extreme
:27:02. > :27:09.left. This is not a happy Europe. The answer for peace, firstly, Nato
:27:10. > :27:15.is an example of countries cooperating together. Provided
:27:16. > :27:19.Europe is democratic, it will never go to war. Let's talk about
:27:20. > :27:26.immigration, you told Andrew Neal you wanted to return to the old norm
:27:27. > :27:37.of immigration in the 1950s. That was 30,000 a year. Is that a fair
:27:38. > :27:46.folk of Western Mark -- they figure? Absolutely. Net migration is 180
:27:47. > :27:52.8000. So you want a serious cut. This government is not handling
:27:53. > :27:57.immigration from outside the EU well. The fact that 20,000 illegal
:27:58. > :28:02.immigrants were given permanent leave to Remain, is it any wonder
:28:03. > :28:10.boat was found off Hastings with people in it? The government has
:28:11. > :28:15.failed on the staff and on the EU stuff we have no control at all.
:28:16. > :28:20.This Prime Minister promised the British people he would bring it
:28:21. > :28:25.down to tens of thousands, knowing we have an open door. You are not
:28:26. > :28:31.the kind of guy who wants to stop family reunions so that would carry
:28:32. > :28:37.on? Provided they are legitimate and we know that we are doing properly.
:28:38. > :28:43.They were running at 40 3000. You want to get it down to 40,000. You
:28:44. > :28:52.cannot let anybody else in. Let's be clear, getting back to a norm that
:28:53. > :28:55.starts to relieve the pressure, I mean, people cannot get GP
:28:56. > :29:05.appointments, people cannot get their kids on the housing ladder. It
:29:06. > :29:13.needs a government led by people and it needs us to stop the open door to
:29:14. > :29:18.500 million people across the EU. Let's put that to one side and think
:29:19. > :29:28.afterwards nobody from the EU tries to come here. You still got 188,000,
:29:29. > :29:35.43,000 with Family Reunion, the numbers simply do not add up. We
:29:36. > :29:39.will have a tougher immigration policy and I think everyone knows
:29:40. > :29:42.that when it comes to Family Reunion, the boundaries have been
:29:43. > :29:50.stretched. You said you wanted quality migrants, and you said, we
:29:51. > :29:55.don't want Albanian murderers and people with HIV. Is that your view?
:29:56. > :30:01.I want this country to be a normal country. Normal countries all over
:30:02. > :30:05.the world don't allow criminals to settle in their country, don't allow
:30:06. > :30:10.people to come into the country who would be a huge burden on the health
:30:11. > :30:22.service. Would you include things like to brag your losses and other
:30:23. > :30:25.difficult diseases? -- tuberculous. Let's be clear. We have a national
:30:26. > :30:30.health system at breaking point, literally at breaking point, many
:30:31. > :30:34.will tell you that, because things are serious, it is a National Health
:30:35. > :30:40.Service, not an international health service. How do you know people have
:30:41. > :30:44.got HIV when they come in? If you go to Australia you need to prove
:30:45. > :30:50.things. You are getting into specific details and looking for a
:30:51. > :30:54.big headline. What I'm saying is, the way Australia does it is simple,
:30:55. > :30:59.you've got to be under 45, have a trade or skill, have some money,
:31:00. > :31:06.bring your own health insurance. Doesn't that sound sensible?
:31:07. > :31:12.Balsom what about all those British businesses, care homes, hospitals,
:31:13. > :31:15.restaurants, coffee shops, who rely at the moment on not very
:31:16. > :31:29.? Do they go under? Of the new jobs that were created in the UK last
:31:30. > :31:34.year, over 70% of them went to people who are not British. There
:31:35. > :31:38.are 1.7 million Brits who are not employed at the moment, maybe they
:31:39. > :31:42.are all lazy, but I don't think so. I think what is happening is that
:31:43. > :31:46.big companies are choosing foreign labour over British labour. Going
:31:47. > :31:50.back to the HIV thing, you didn't really answer my question, whether
:31:51. > :31:56.you still think that people with HIV should not be allowed into this
:31:57. > :32:00.country? Yes or no? To get free health care? We do not know why they
:32:01. > :32:04.are coming in, they come in for all sorts of reasons, do you keep them
:32:05. > :32:12.out? I am sorry, you are trying to get me... Should we say to people,
:32:13. > :32:16.from all over the world, if you have got a very serious disease, we are
:32:17. > :32:20.very happy for the National Health Service to provide whatever health
:32:21. > :32:25.care you want, at the same time as it now takes people all over Britain
:32:26. > :32:31.a fortnight to get a GP appointment? It is about priorities, isn't it?
:32:32. > :32:36.And my priority would be to put our own people first - it is about time
:32:37. > :32:40.we did. Final question, we are very close to the referendum, very close
:32:41. > :32:46.to the result, and the two camps seem very close indeed. Many but you
:32:47. > :32:52.ahead at the moment. If in the end you lose 51-49, is it over? Well,
:32:53. > :32:57.let's remember one thing. The vast majority of our political us want to
:32:58. > :33:02.stay part of the European Union, many regret the Prime Minister's
:33:03. > :33:06.decision to give us a referendum. If the Leave side was too narrowly
:33:07. > :33:09.lose, the chances of parliament giving us another referendum in the
:33:10. > :33:14.short-term is probably pretty slim. So I do view this as the one
:33:15. > :33:18.opportunity, and you know, there is nothing radical about this. All we
:33:19. > :33:22.want to do is take back control of our lives and put power back in the
:33:23. > :33:27.hands of the British people. An awful lot of people will very angry
:33:28. > :33:31.if the Remain campaign win by a sliver and they think it has been an
:33:32. > :33:37.unfair campaign. Could you see problems on the streets if that
:33:38. > :33:40.happens? I have not mentioned violence, there might be violence
:33:41. > :33:43.inside the Conservative Party, that is certainly true. A lot of his own
:33:44. > :33:48.MPs think that he has used taxpayers' money wrong way and is
:33:49. > :33:52.not running a full, free and fair election campaign. I do not expect
:33:53. > :33:55.violence from the people of this country, I expect profound
:33:56. > :33:59.disappointment. There has been a change in this debate. People have
:34:00. > :34:02.had enough of being threatened by the Prime Minister and the
:34:03. > :34:06.Chancellor, and I think, collectively, people are beginning
:34:07. > :34:10.to put two pinger is up to the political class. They may very well
:34:11. > :34:11.be, Nigel Farage, thank you for joining us.
:34:12. > :34:13.The Prime Minister will be joining me shortly.
:34:14. > :34:17.is that he once played the drums at school.
:34:18. > :34:20.But like many amateur musicians, he gave up after a while,
:34:21. > :34:21.perhaps mercifully, if you ask Mrs Cameron.
:34:22. > :34:24.Well, a new initiative called BBC Get Playing is aimed
:34:25. > :34:26.at encouraging lapsed musicians to take up their old instruments again.
:34:27. > :34:28.Earlier, the trumpeter Alison Balsom,
:34:29. > :34:30.one of the world-class musicians who's backing the season,
:34:31. > :34:38.I think it's a fabulous initiative, because so many people,
:34:39. > :34:41.I've met thousands of people who've said, "I used to play this
:34:42. > :34:44.instrument or that instrument, and I gave up and I regret it."
:34:45. > :34:46.And the thing that I just want to say all the time,
:34:47. > :34:48.over and over again, is that playing music
:34:49. > :34:52.We know that, it's been proven in so many ways.
:34:53. > :34:56.Good for the brain, good for the lungs, good for everything.
:34:57. > :34:58.Absolutely, for the trumpet, absolutely, good for the lungs.
:34:59. > :35:02.But it's also good for the community.
:35:03. > :35:06.So I guess, there are lots and lots of people who have a dusty violin,
:35:07. > :35:09.a kind of old oboe or a clarinet they picked up a few
:35:10. > :35:14.So you can talk to them right now, what's your message to them?
:35:15. > :35:16.The message is, go and look in the loft, go and look
:35:17. > :35:18.for an instrument, look for the instrument
:35:19. > :35:21.you've always wanted to play, or that you used to play,
:35:22. > :35:25.The BBC has lots of information on how you can play music that
:35:26. > :35:27.they've provided and even join in with the virtual orchestra
:35:28. > :35:32.It's a very exciting time for you, you've got a big concert
:35:33. > :35:34.at the Albert Hall, you've got a new album out,
:35:35. > :35:37.and you've just got your OBE, so congratulations to you for that.
:35:38. > :35:39.Tell us a little bit about the album.
:35:40. > :35:42.So the album that has just come out is the trumpet and piano repertoire,
:35:43. > :35:45.it's a live concert, because I love to just record a live concert.
:35:46. > :35:50.There's not a lot, but what we've chosen is all my favourites
:35:51. > :35:53.from the repertoire, and it's like going to a concert,
:35:54. > :35:57.Actually, today I'm just off to finish recording
:35:58. > :35:59.my Christmas album. Christmas album already?!
:36:00. > :36:04.And you are playing some Bach for us at the end.
:36:05. > :36:07.Alison, thank you so much indeed for coming in.
:36:08. > :36:10.And Alison Balsom will play us out later,
:36:11. > :36:15.but first I'm joined by the Prime Minister, David Cameron.
:36:16. > :36:21.Welcome, Prime Minister. Some pretty bloodcurdling warnings this morning
:36:22. > :36:25.for pensioners, the NHS and the armed services, people will say this
:36:26. > :36:30.is yet more project Fear, yet more scaremongering. Well, what it is is
:36:31. > :36:33.saying that if we vote to leave the European Union and the single
:36:34. > :36:39.market, that will have economic consequences. Of course, there are
:36:40. > :36:42.experts, the Governor of the Bank of England, the IMF, the IFS, all
:36:43. > :36:45.saying the economy would be smaller and we would have less money to
:36:46. > :36:50.spend on public services, but I also think there is a deep piece of
:36:51. > :36:55.common sense, and I want to take a moment to set it out. In the single
:36:56. > :36:59.market, we get free access to 500 million consumers, crucial for our
:37:00. > :37:04.economy, where almost half of what we sell goes. If we have less good
:37:05. > :37:08.access, which we would if we left, it would impact on the economy, on
:37:09. > :37:13.car-makers, aeroplane makers, the seven industries. We look behind us
:37:14. > :37:17.at the enormous industry on the wall, the London financial centre.
:37:18. > :37:22.If we restrict access, we will be less well off, and that affects what
:37:23. > :37:29.we can spend on public services. There is no saving from leaving the
:37:30. > :37:32.EU, there is a cost, and my message is clear - do not risk it. These
:37:33. > :37:35.things, ringfencing the NHS, spending an up on defence, these are
:37:36. > :37:41.political choices. You could equally say that you would raise taxes or
:37:42. > :37:50.borrowing. That is true, of course. If, as the IFS, frequent and
:37:51. > :37:54.trenchant critics of the Government, they say there would be a ?20- 40
:37:55. > :37:58.billion black hole, and you could meet that by putting up taxes on
:37:59. > :38:01.hard-working people, or by going back to borrowing more and putting
:38:02. > :38:07.the economy at risk. Or it could be cut in things like pensions or
:38:08. > :38:12.health. And we do not have to vote for that, we do not have to risk it.
:38:13. > :38:16.We can take the better choice, and I think it is worth stopping for a
:38:17. > :38:22.moment and thinking, how will we feel on the 24th of June? If we vote
:38:23. > :38:24.in, there will be a wall of investment, companies responsible
:38:25. > :38:30.for making things in this country will want to employ more, make more.
:38:31. > :38:35.We will have a strong and bright future inside a reformed European
:38:36. > :38:38.Union. If we vote out, it is a decade of uncertainty. You have
:38:39. > :38:41.chosen this morning to one pensioners in particular that they
:38:42. > :38:45.will lose the triple lock. This is what Iain Duncan Smith has said,
:38:46. > :38:49.what we now have is a Vindicat bands desperate attempt to bully and
:38:50. > :38:55.frighten the British people, particularly pensioners. -- a
:38:56. > :38:58.vindictive and desperate. The Conservative Party said that
:38:59. > :39:04.protecting pensioners was a priority, but it is now apparent
:39:05. > :39:11.that there is not do to use or jettison NFF it's to get as to stay
:39:12. > :39:17.in the EU. -- in their efforts to get us to stay in the EU. Of course,
:39:18. > :39:24.it is a priority, but if we did face a black hole like that in our public
:39:25. > :39:28.finances, we would have to make difficult choices, and our pensions
:39:29. > :39:33.promise is based on a growing and succeeding economy, and all of the
:39:34. > :39:36.experts, and I agree with them, and most in business agree, if we cut
:39:37. > :39:40.ourselves off from the most important market, the economy will
:39:41. > :39:45.be smaller, and that has consequences. We will be taking a
:39:46. > :39:50.risk with jobs and growth, and we should not do that. Risks that other
:39:51. > :39:53.clubs because you called the referendum in the first place. Just
:39:54. > :39:58.because it is right to hold the referendum does not mean that you
:39:59. > :40:02.should not be clear about the potential consequences. Nigel Farage
:40:03. > :40:07.was just saying if the pound falls, so what? Briefly, he thought it
:40:08. > :40:12.would go back up again. If the pound falls, that means the prices in our
:40:13. > :40:16.shops go up, the weekly shop costs people more, the family holiday
:40:17. > :40:20.costs more. Outside the single market, airfares will cost more.
:40:21. > :40:24.These are all risks we should avoid, we should not risk it. The challenge
:40:25. > :40:27.to you is that this is scaremongering, you have been
:40:28. > :40:33.quoting the IFS all morning. They say, if we turned out to take a ?40
:40:34. > :40:37.billion hit to public finances, it would be a smaller hit than the
:40:38. > :40:42.effect of the 2008 recession, below the downgrades to the forecast made
:40:43. > :40:46.by the OBR between 2012 and 2013, and we have coped with those. The
:40:47. > :40:51.Treasury themselves forecast that if we leave, the recession will be the
:40:52. > :40:56.shallowest since 1956. It is not Armageddon. Who wants to vote for a
:40:57. > :41:01.shallow recession? The 2008 recession was the worst since the
:41:02. > :41:04.war. This would be the first one that was self-inflicted, and that is
:41:05. > :41:09.what the Bank of England and the IFS and the Treasury and others think.
:41:10. > :41:13.But the roof does not come down. I know what it is like, as Prime
:41:14. > :41:17.Minister, trying to fill in a black hole, trying to deal with the
:41:18. > :41:20.aftermath of recession, trying to get people back to work, meant the
:41:21. > :41:25.public finances, making decisions which many people watching will not
:41:26. > :41:29.have agreed with, because they were tough and difficult. I don't want us
:41:30. > :41:37.to have to make any more of those decisions, and if we vote to stay
:41:38. > :41:40.in, we don't have to. If we vote to come out, we are putting ourselves
:41:41. > :41:43.deliberately in a less good position in a key market. People believe that
:41:44. > :41:47.you are overstating the case, and if you look at the audience in the ITV
:41:48. > :41:51.debate, they were not listening to you, and the reason that they were
:41:52. > :41:55.not listening is because the warnings have been too extreme, too
:41:56. > :41:59.specific, all that stuff about house prices falling by 18% and so forth,
:42:00. > :42:03.coming from the Treasury, which cannot forecast very much ahead.
:42:04. > :42:07.They are no longer listening, they do not believe you. I took except
:42:08. > :42:14.that people are confused by having so many statistics, and that there
:42:15. > :42:17.is a lot of frustration because of that, but I think it is actually my
:42:18. > :42:20.job as Prime Minister, when you have got independent forecasts, from the
:42:21. > :42:23.Governor of the Bank of England, whose job it is to warn of risks to
:42:24. > :42:28.the economy, from the IMF, who warns governments when they face risks, it
:42:29. > :42:32.is my job to talk about that. It would be very irresponsible not to
:42:33. > :42:38.do so. But those numbers are basically made up, that is the
:42:39. > :42:44.problem. Well, I don't acceptable stop Steve Hilton, your former
:42:45. > :42:53.adviser, says, they are made up, I know because I used to do that
:42:54. > :42:56.stuff. Except for the IFS that is not eventually cause, I cannot do
:42:57. > :43:04.that with the Bank of England either. -- that is not then Trillick
:43:05. > :43:07.was. For people who find the barrage of statistics confusing, although
:43:08. > :43:11.they are coming from independent bodies, there is such an obvious
:43:12. > :43:15.common-sense and logical point, which is our car makers, financial
:43:16. > :43:20.services businesses, our insurers, they want us to stay in the biggest
:43:21. > :43:23.single market in the world because they see immense opportunity. We
:43:24. > :43:27.should be taking that market and driving the trade deals with China,
:43:28. > :43:31.whose economy we are bigger than as part of the single market, driving
:43:32. > :43:35.deals with America, who we are bigger than as part of the single
:43:36. > :43:38.market, and there are huge and sides, particularly for young
:43:39. > :43:43.people, but there are risks, and we should not risk it. I am suggesting
:43:44. > :43:47.that the tone has been got badly wrong, people are not listening, two
:43:48. > :43:52.thirds do not think they personally will be worse off at the Brexit. It
:43:53. > :44:00.is beginning to sound a bit as if your campaign is vote to stay or the
:44:01. > :44:08.puppy gets it. I do not accept that. There is a hugely optimistic and
:44:09. > :44:13.positive campaign, our slogan is about positivity. That is why we
:44:14. > :44:15.will be talking about the opportunities for young people, the
:44:16. > :44:20.strength that Britain has, and I have seen this over six years as
:44:21. > :44:23.Prime Minister. If I want to help tackle problems, stopping migration
:44:24. > :44:27.from the eastern Mediterranean, trying to clear up Ebola in West
:44:28. > :44:30.Africa, fight climate change, stand up for British interests in the
:44:31. > :44:35.world, you do not diminish your country by being part of the EU.
:44:36. > :44:38.There is a strong, bold, patriotic case for staying in this
:44:39. > :44:46.organisation. And another point that has not come out, if we wake up and
:44:47. > :44:49.we are in, Britain's authority within the EU will be stronger. No
:44:50. > :44:55.other country has done what we have done, hold a renegotiation and a
:44:56. > :44:58.referendum, and people will know that fighting extremism and
:44:59. > :45:01.terrorism, jobs, that is all go into the top of the agenda, and we will
:45:02. > :45:05.be pushing that in Europe and elsewhere. Some people say there is
:45:06. > :45:09.a choice between being in Europe and going global, but that is nonsense.
:45:10. > :45:12.By being in the single market and having economic strength, we have
:45:13. > :45:19.the ability to have global reach as well.
:45:20. > :45:25.When John Major was sitting in that chair he said the NHS would not be
:45:26. > :45:31.safe in the hands of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith.
:45:32. > :45:35.Would you agree with him? I thought he made a very powerful case for why
:45:36. > :45:45.we should stay in the European Union. Do you agree with him? I am
:45:46. > :45:53.not going to talk personalities. Are you going to get Amber Rudd to do it
:45:54. > :45:56.for you? I am simply going to talk about the facts and Biagi mince
:45:57. > :46:03.which I think there are enough to get into. -- the arguments. If we
:46:04. > :46:09.vote to leave there will be changes in the Conservative Party and those
:46:10. > :46:15.on the Leave side will be enhanced. You have said you will stay on as
:46:16. > :46:22.Prime Minister and carry-out the British people's wishes. That is a
:46:23. > :46:30.rather indistinct thing, the wishes of the British people. Does the
:46:31. > :46:36.manifesto of the Tory Leave side signify, would you bring in an
:46:37. > :46:44.Australian points system, send that money to the NHS? Obviously, if we
:46:45. > :46:50.vote to leave, with the consequence of that would have, and a DIY
:46:51. > :46:55.recession, that has consequences which would be very difficult for
:46:56. > :46:58.the government to deal with but difficult for British families. I
:46:59. > :47:06.worry about British people losing their jobs. The question is, if we
:47:07. > :47:12.vote to leave will be carry-out the instructions, yes, will I carry on,
:47:13. > :47:18.yes, well I construct a government that includes all the talents of the
:47:19. > :47:25.Conservative Party, yes. Do I think it is the best thing for the
:47:26. > :47:29.country, I do not. So you would be introducing an Australian style
:47:30. > :47:34.points system you do not believe in? Would you be taking us out of the
:47:35. > :47:38.single market? There is room to negotiate that. One of the most
:47:39. > :47:43.important moments was when the boat campaign said they wanted to leave
:47:44. > :47:51.the single market. -- when the Leave campaign. They did not need to make
:47:52. > :47:55.that choice. The British public would be voting to leave the single
:47:56. > :48:00.market. We would then need to negotiate a trade deal from outside.
:48:01. > :48:07.Canada is in the process of doing that and it has taken seven years.
:48:08. > :48:12.There is a risk of a lost decade for Britain. Leaving the EU you've got
:48:13. > :48:18.to negotiate the accident, it took Greenland three years, you've got to
:48:19. > :48:20.negotiate a trade deal, it has taken Canada seven years and counting.
:48:21. > :48:28.Then you've got to negotiate trade deals with the 50 other countries
:48:29. > :48:34.covered by this deal. It would suck the energy out of our government,
:48:35. > :48:38.whilst we should be taking on the world and winning, we would be stuck
:48:39. > :48:42.renegotiating these things for a very long time. All the while we
:48:43. > :48:48.would have an economy that was less well off. You have said leaving the
:48:49. > :48:55.single market would put a bomb under the British economy and yet you are
:48:56. > :49:01.in the position of seeing, I will detonate the bomb. I must accept the
:49:02. > :49:08.instructions of the British people. But if we leave the EU, and the
:49:09. > :49:13.German finance minister was very clear, you are either in or out,
:49:14. > :49:17.we've then got to negotiate a trade deal. It is worth stopping and
:49:18. > :49:22.thinking, who has got what sort of trade deal? They will never give us
:49:23. > :49:32.a better deal on the outside than on the inside. You could do a deal that
:49:33. > :49:39.gave us access to the market. You could do that. Believe campaign have
:49:40. > :49:47.specifically rejected that option. The reason is, if you go for the
:49:48. > :49:59.Norway solution, you still pay into the EU and access free movement.
:50:00. > :50:06.This is why I think it is so positive on the Remain side. We have
:50:07. > :50:13.a seat at the table to determine the rules. For Britain, the idea that we
:50:14. > :50:20.should aggregate that responsibility and have our year pressed to the
:50:21. > :50:25.glass, trying to find out what 27 countries are doing to affect our
:50:26. > :50:33.future, that would be an abdication of responsibility. Norway are not
:50:34. > :50:39.doing too bad. Yes, but the Norwegians say, if you want to be
:50:40. > :50:45.run by Europe, we take dictation about what the rules are. It is not
:50:46. > :50:50.the ordinary Norwegian people, who are doing pretty well. They have as
:50:51. > :50:57.much oil as Das and only 4 million people. Think of the car industry,
:50:58. > :51:04.they want as negotiating the rules for the electric cars of the future,
:51:05. > :51:11.I want them to be built in Britain. Let us move to the issue your site
:51:12. > :51:15.have most trouble with, immigration. The promise to bring it down to tens
:51:16. > :51:25.of thousands was your biggest single political mistake. It is a challenge
:51:26. > :51:31.to control immigration, when you're economy is growing as well as ours
:51:32. > :51:36.did, we've had a five-year period where we created more jobs than the
:51:37. > :51:45.rest of the EU put together. As recently as 2008, the number of
:51:46. > :51:56.people leaving and coming in was balanced. As the euro zone countries
:51:57. > :52:05.are recovering, the idea that we are shackled to a corpse is nonsense.
:52:06. > :52:10.Being in the EU means we have no control at all over immigration from
:52:11. > :52:14.the rest of the EU, it is untrue that we can control over all
:52:15. > :52:22.immigration if we stay in, that is Paul Johnson of the IFS. That does
:52:23. > :52:32.not take into account what we get if we stay, so that if someone comes to
:52:33. > :52:36.work in Britain. If someone comes to work they get no unemployment
:52:37. > :52:42.benefit. If they don't get a job they will be asked to leave and if
:52:43. > :52:46.they do they need to work, paying into the system before they get
:52:47. > :52:54.access to the welfare system. Some are able to get money in benefits. I
:52:55. > :52:57.think that is a good way of controlling immigration. I think
:52:58. > :53:02.leaving the single market is a massive mistake for our economy and
:53:03. > :53:07.country. I don't think you solve that by seeing unemployment going
:53:08. > :53:13.up, tax revenues coming down, cuts to public services. Those are risks
:53:14. > :53:19.we should not take. If there is a voter watching this thinking, what I
:53:20. > :53:24.care about is controlling immigration, what way should they
:53:25. > :53:34.vote? Fought to stay in the EU because we have complete control. --
:53:35. > :53:40.thought to stay -- vote. If people come here then they need to work or
:53:41. > :53:44.support themselves and they need to pay in before they get out. That was
:53:45. > :53:48.one of the biggest complaints people had, that we had a something for
:53:49. > :53:54.nothing system that we have changed through this negotiation. People can
:53:55. > :54:04.vote to stay in a reformed Europe. How much will that cut? Clearly if
:54:05. > :54:14.you take away ?10,000 of benefits that has an effect. Nigel Farage has
:54:15. > :54:18.raised the issue of Turkey. At the moment it is the British
:54:19. > :54:22.Government's policy for Turkey to join the EU and we are spending
:54:23. > :54:28.money to help that happen. If you change that policy, you could end
:54:29. > :54:37.that part of the argument here and now. This is a red herring, there is
:54:38. > :54:40.no prospect of Turkey joining the EU in decades. You cannot find one
:54:41. > :54:47.expert that thinks it is going to happen because it is not going to
:54:48. > :54:54.happen. They've opened one chapter of 35 they have to open even though
:54:55. > :54:58.this started in 1987. At the current rate of progress they will get there
:54:59. > :55:04.in the year 3000. It is a red herring and they know that. They've
:55:05. > :55:08.admitted to it and they should stop frightening people. A lot of people
:55:09. > :55:13.say they don't believe the establishment. They will find a way
:55:14. > :55:16.of Turkey getting in if it is in their interests. Could you at least
:55:17. > :55:28.say that we will have another referendum if Turkey is getting in?
:55:29. > :55:31.Every country has a veto. Would you use it? Me saying that makes it
:55:32. > :55:36.sound like it is going to happen, it is not going to happen, it is
:55:37. > :55:44.decades away, this is not going to happen. Let me ask you about
:55:45. > :55:47.something else. 20 police forces are investigating Conservatives election
:55:48. > :55:53.expenses. This is a growing story. Did you authorise the paying of a
:55:54. > :56:01.very expensive QC to go to police to stop them making this investigation?
:56:02. > :56:05.This is looking like a cover-up. This is handled by the party
:56:06. > :56:11.chairman and I am confident what we did was right. Did you send a QC to
:56:12. > :56:16.stop the investigation? What happened was we, like many parties,
:56:17. > :56:25.had a national battle bus that went two constituencies, and in our view,
:56:26. > :56:35.it is national expenses. I think that the rate approach. The party
:56:36. > :56:40.chairman is handling it. My final question, are you on the edge of
:56:41. > :56:44.losing? I think, nobody knows what these polls are saying, we are in
:56:45. > :56:48.the middle of an absolutely vital debate for the future of our country
:56:49. > :56:53.and I want us to be stronger, safer, better off, and I don't want us to
:56:54. > :57:02.take the risks with our economy, with futures, with recession. It is
:57:03. > :57:06.agonisingly close. It feels like a very lively debate but I'm confident
:57:07. > :57:16.we have the strongest, most positive case. I think we can be greater if
:57:17. > :57:18.we stay end. There will be sweet music, but first, a flavour of what
:57:19. > :57:20.is coming up after this programme. Join us from Brunel University
:57:21. > :57:22.London at ten, where we'll be asking
:57:23. > :57:24.just one big question. We've gathered environmentalists,
:57:25. > :57:27.escgatologists, economists, writers,
:57:28. > :57:28.people from many faiths, Join me at the same time next Sunday
:57:29. > :57:39.here on BBC One when my guests Andrew Neil will be here
:57:40. > :57:43.with the Sunday Politics in an hour with reaction to what
:57:44. > :57:45.the Prime Minister and But for now, as promised, we leave
:57:46. > :57:51.you with Alison Balsom - and Bach. This is the Badinerie from the
:57:52. > :57:55.Orchestral Suite Number Two.