:00:00. > :00:00.which killed 13 people 4.5 years ago. `` multiple shooting. All
:00:00. > :00:00.personnel had been ordered to be sheltered immediately. We will bring
:00:00. > :00:27.you more as we get it. Welcome to our look ahead to the
:00:28. > :00:30.papers tomorrow. I have a political commentator and the City editor at
:00:31. > :00:36.the mail on Sunday. The front pages are in now. The Daily Telegraph has
:00:37. > :00:41.the health risks of the current smoggy conditions. The Guardian
:00:42. > :00:44.claims that ministers want to make GCSEs tougher by picking Mark from
:00:45. > :00:51.students in England with those in China. The Metro covers the case of
:00:52. > :00:56.a businessman who bled to death on the road after being stabbed by
:00:57. > :00:58.carjackers. The headline in the Mera is warning people to keep their
:00:59. > :01:03.children indoors because of the killer smog. The Mail is leading
:01:04. > :01:06.with Nigella Lawson who has apparently been banned from the US
:01:07. > :01:12.after admitting that she took cocaine. The Express headlines
:01:13. > :01:16.booming property prices, saying that the price of the average home has
:01:17. > :01:23.soared by ?16,000 in months. The Times is claiming that the PM is
:01:24. > :01:26.being pressured to prevent Scots from voting in the next election if
:01:27. > :01:30.they vote on independence. The Sun has a take on the dust cloud over
:01:31. > :01:44.the UK with a headline Desert Island. That is where we begin.
:01:45. > :01:50.Desert island. Stay inside alert. The take of the Sun seems to play up
:01:51. > :01:54.the freak weather conditions. The desert sand was the most bizarre
:01:55. > :02:01.thing about this. It was visible on cars all over the country, or least
:02:02. > :02:09.those I have seen in London. The visible effect. Following the story
:02:10. > :02:16.on, the very bottom of the story points out that Britain faces fines
:02:17. > :02:19.of ?200 million after legal action was launched over the persistent
:02:20. > :02:24.lack of UK air quality. That may be lurking beneath this. You have a
:02:25. > :02:28.freak event because it comes on top of what might be at persistent
:02:29. > :02:33.problem. It isn't just dust from the Sahara. It is pollution from
:02:34. > :02:39.factories in the UK and across Europe. There is confusion about
:02:40. > :02:42.this story. You read what different and watchdogs and apartments are
:02:43. > :02:49.advising. Some advise to stay indoors, especially if... Some
:02:50. > :02:54.schools have kept children from going into the playground because of
:02:55. > :03:01.it. Other advisers are seemingly saying that it isn't that bad. On
:03:02. > :03:05.the front page of the Times, they call it a blunder. They say that the
:03:06. > :03:13.Met Office admitted that it overstated the threat and people
:03:14. > :03:23.panicked. It is one of these stories which, because there are pretty good
:03:24. > :03:33.photographs to go along, you can see, it is perhaps being over eight.
:03:34. > :03:40.Asthmatic people are feeling it. `` over`egged. That is a lot to do with
:03:41. > :03:45.the Saharan dust which is a freak weather condition. Indeed. Let's go
:03:46. > :03:51.to the Times. Pressure on camera and to prevent Scots from voting if they
:03:52. > :03:56.vote for independence. That could be that they don't have a say in the
:03:57. > :04:01.election? This is interesting. It is interesting that he has kept Nigel
:04:02. > :04:05.Karadzic and Nick Clegg of the front page. If you look across the front
:04:06. > :04:10.pages, the debate is not nearly as prominent as we might have thought.
:04:11. > :04:18.`` Farage. That may be because they don't want to give Nigel Farage a
:04:19. > :04:20.leg up. The Times has got their story through its own merit but I
:04:21. > :04:24.don't think the timing is coincidence. It says that the PM is
:04:25. > :04:30.being lobbied by senior conservatives who want to ban the
:04:31. > :04:35.59th Scottish constituencies from taking part in the election if they
:04:36. > :04:41.vote for independence. That has run applications. If you take away those
:04:42. > :04:45.59 constituencies which are all not Tory except one, the political
:04:46. > :04:51.landscape comes a very different. In order to do it, you have to get the
:04:52. > :04:57.bill passed through Parliament. Can you see Labour MPs voting for that?
:04:58. > :05:01.In some ways, it is a story to highlight the what gifts of the
:05:02. > :05:06.whole independence debate and to make people who might be tempted to
:05:07. > :05:12.vote for independence thing twice. An interesting political story. Very
:05:13. > :05:15.interesting. It says that it if there is a voter independence,
:05:16. > :05:22.camera and should resign according to some MPs. He helped put this the
:05:23. > :05:27.agenda and allowed it to happen. His position will be extremely
:05:28. > :05:30.difficult. I'm sure that he does not want to get an history as the Prime
:05:31. > :05:36.Minister who saw the breakup of the union. Back to the electoral thing.
:05:37. > :05:38.I think it unpacks a host of possibilities that the Scottish
:05:39. > :05:42.referendum poses which should have been unthought of before. The
:05:43. > :05:48.opposite possibility, the general election takes place and Scotland
:05:49. > :05:52.votes Yes to independence but the Scottish constituencies still had
:05:53. > :05:56.seats in Westminster. Let us imagine that we are in the situation we were
:05:57. > :06:00.in in 2010 where we have a negotiation and hung parliament. You
:06:01. > :06:05.may end up with a government which depends upon Scottish seats. The
:06:06. > :06:09.alternative to them, if they do vote, is that they vacate their
:06:10. > :06:13.seats. That would be halfway through a British Parliament. We would have
:06:14. > :06:19.to renegotiate and have a new coalition or would there be a new
:06:20. > :06:21.general election? It hones in on the problems of the referendum could
:06:22. > :06:25.cause. It is clever electioneering cause. It is clever electioneering
:06:26. > :06:31.as far as the referendum is concerned because of exactly that.
:06:32. > :06:39.No matter what happens, if we do vote for independence, it is going
:06:40. > :06:44.to be an absolute muggle. It is the drip, drip that is being fed to the
:06:45. > :06:48.newspapers. In good and interesting stories, but it is to make people
:06:49. > :06:53.think, " Don't vote for independence." That public down
:06:54. > :06:58.south of the border will think of this, I wonder. A lot of people
:06:59. > :07:05.would think, why would they vote for independence? Why would they vote
:07:06. > :07:11.our Prime Minister? If there is any Yes for independence, the Scottish
:07:12. > :07:15.MPs would vacate their seats but they would vacate their seats after
:07:16. > :07:24.the election, not before it. Very interesting story. Well done, the
:07:25. > :07:32.Times. Let's go to the Guardian. To the GCSE marks paid to China's
:07:33. > :07:38.scores. We had been hearing that the pressure that the Chinese are under
:07:39. > :07:43.to get good grades. `` pegged. Is this what he is suggesting? There
:07:44. > :07:47.are those who would think twice about putting their children under
:07:48. > :07:51.the kind of pressure we hear about in Shanghai and Singapore and far
:07:52. > :07:57.Eastern countries about educational performance. We have also talked
:07:58. > :08:03.about the question already of whether we are comparing like with
:08:04. > :08:06.like. The way these educational performance data is collected in
:08:07. > :08:16.other countries, is it can parable to what is going on here? It is a
:08:17. > :08:21.very difficult thing. It isn't a coincidence and that the Guardian
:08:22. > :08:26.has chosen to headline it in a way that they have done. You immediately
:08:27. > :08:32.think of Tiger mums, and hot housing. In this country, we tend to
:08:33. > :08:35.be negative about China. When these comparative studies come and they
:08:36. > :08:38.show that our 15`year`old children are not doing as well as other
:08:39. > :08:45.countries, that is also negative. You can't have it both ways. Code is
:08:46. > :08:48.correct to push the stand`up as long as we do not go down that
:08:49. > :08:57.high`intensity, pressurised situation. `` Gove is correct. There
:08:58. > :09:03.were other statistic about problem`solving in 15 `year`olds. We
:09:04. > :09:08.did very, very well. Our kids to do very well in something. GCSEs are
:09:09. > :09:13.meant to be more about teaching children to think rather than to
:09:14. > :09:18.regurgitate. We should applaud where applause is necessary. It is a
:09:19. > :09:21.classic cliche, isn't it? They make Apple products in China but they
:09:22. > :09:29.don't develop them. Something to ponder. Let's go to the Mirror and
:09:30. > :09:35.the big debate tonight. The rumble in central London. One line from it
:09:36. > :09:37.from central `` Nigel Farage, migrants have created a white
:09:38. > :09:51.underclass. Farage plays the race card. He KOs Nick Clegg. It is no
:09:52. > :09:56.coincidence that he used this phrase. He seems to pull back from
:09:57. > :10:02.it a little bit but I can't help feeling that there was a deliberate
:10:03. > :10:07.plan. He knew the constituency to which he was trying to appeal. The
:10:08. > :10:13.thing about the Mirror which surprises me is the opinion piece on
:10:14. > :10:20.the verdict which suggests that Nick Clegg was victorious, or least
:10:21. > :10:23.delivered some serious blows on Farage which I don't think was the
:10:24. > :10:28.case to be honest. Nick Clegg was defensive throughout the debate.
:10:29. > :10:32.There were areas, notably Syria and the Keating issue where he landed
:10:33. > :10:36.some blows but not sure that most people think that that was central
:10:37. > :10:45.to the debate. I think that a lot of commentators, especially on the Left
:10:46. > :10:50.were startled and frightened by the blatant appeal that Farage was
:10:51. > :10:57.making to the Mirror readers. Labour Party, working, what he would call
:10:58. > :11:01.working`class voters, which of course have not really being in the
:11:02. > :11:07.UKIP train before, but today it was very, very clear that he was going
:11:08. > :11:11.for them, help labour. Labour voters definitely because he was talking
:11:12. > :11:16.about hard`working people taking our jobs and that sort of thing that in
:11:17. > :11:23.a different way from the way he has done it in the past. `` help Labour.
:11:24. > :11:29.They will want to knock him out as soon as possible. Deliberate Mac
:11:30. > :11:32.party has suggested that they have made mistakes on immigration and
:11:33. > :11:39.they should not allow the barriers to be completely blown open. `` the
:11:40. > :11:47.Labor Party. Labor Party has tried to address the issue. Had they
:11:48. > :11:53.adjusted well enough? `` addressed it. People developer position which
:11:54. > :11:58.is hard to shake in either direction. If the kernel of an idea
:11:59. > :12:07.is in the mind of people and you are a politician with a mind to do so,
:12:08. > :12:08.you can reach out to it. It has power. The antiestablishment
:12:09. > :12:12.argument which he was pushing so much, it will appeal to Labour
:12:13. > :12:16.voters. The establishment is conservatives and LibDem at the
:12:17. > :12:24.moment. He's pushing that more now than he was when the establishment
:12:25. > :12:29.was the Labour. He is the outsider. Apparently it's a big shout out for
:12:30. > :12:34.the Prime Minister for Waitrose. It doesn't sound like it is connected,
:12:35. > :12:39.but I think that this is really... ! You can draw the link here. An off
:12:40. > :12:46.the cuff remark that David Cameron made. He was visiting John Lewis and
:12:47. > :12:50.said how much he loves Waitrose and he finds Waitrose customers are more
:12:51. > :12:53.talkative and engage more with him. He would have thought that that was
:12:54. > :12:59.a nice and flattering and friendsly thing to do. It send a dodgy message
:13:00. > :13:03.because it sounds like David Cameron only connects with Waitrose
:13:04. > :13:07.shoppers. And then, of course, most of us these days aren't are doing a
:13:08. > :13:10.lot of shopping in Aldi and the pound shop. I was going to say `
:13:11. > :13:15.that's exactly where he should be making that comment down in Aldi or
:13:16. > :13:19.Pound Stretcher. I'm saying that it is a serious political mistake, but
:13:20. > :13:23.the us and them message that Nigel Farage is so desperately trying to
:13:24. > :13:30.be on the us, he's looking like a them. Has he dropped the clankinger
:13:31. > :13:34.then? Yes, as Daisy says. I think that it is intriguing and it gives
:13:35. > :13:39.us a window. Where you shop, supermarket`wise, in a lot of
:13:40. > :13:41.people's minds, is a proxy for social class and social positioning
:13:42. > :13:46.and some things have been thrown in the air by that. We have a middle
:13:47. > :13:54.class that's felt a squeeze and, as Daisy says, is increasingly drawn to
:13:55. > :13:58.places like Aldi and Lidl. Well, I wonder where he will make his
:13:59. > :14:01.statement from tomorrow, Aldi? You can imagine Ed Miliband making hay
:14:02. > :14:07.in Prime Minister's Questions, "You wouldn't know, you only shop in
:14:08. > :14:11.Waitrose! ". He says when he's in his local town, he shops as
:14:12. > :14:16.Sainsbury only because there isn't a Waitrose, that's going to stick! It
:14:17. > :14:21.will. Back to the Express, house prices soaring by ?16,000. No end in
:14:22. > :14:25.sight for prices and London is way outstripping. It usually does, but
:14:26. > :14:28.it is getting ridiculous now, isn't it? It is. This is beginning to
:14:29. > :14:32.shape up to be quite a serious issue. The imbalance that there is
:14:33. > :14:35.between London. But interestingly, in the figures that came out
:14:36. > :14:39.yesterday, there was other hot spots in certain parts of Manchester, that
:14:40. > :14:44.were extremely hot on house prices. But it is becoming a serious issue.
:14:45. > :14:47.I don't want to be an alarmist, but house prices are galloping at a rate
:14:48. > :14:51.which is at odds with what we're seeing in the rest of the economy
:14:52. > :14:54.and poses some quite serious dilemmas for the Bank of England
:14:55. > :14:58.about how it deals with this. They're very torn, it seems to me,
:14:59. > :15:02.and obviously they're aware of this, in that they don't feel that they
:15:03. > :15:05.can raise interest rates to calm down this behaviour because it could
:15:06. > :15:11.be destructive to the economic recovery, but at the same time, they
:15:12. > :15:16.need to communicate to people that interest rates will go up and house
:15:17. > :15:19.prices could be a burden. Deutsch Bank has just said that it believes
:15:20. > :15:23.that rate rises will come sooner rather than later. They've changed
:15:24. > :15:26.their mind on that. And coming back to the London property market, there
:15:27. > :15:30.were figures out this weekend showing... And we've known this for
:15:31. > :15:33.a while, that more billionaires than any other city in the world, are
:15:34. > :15:37.buying property in London because they see it as a safe haven for
:15:38. > :15:41.their money. It's not to live in, but purely an investment. That
:15:42. > :15:46.brings in massive implications for mansion tax and so on. The average
:15:47. > :15:50.house that the billionaires is buying is ?22 million for the
:15:51. > :15:55.average house. And you can see that generally, as house prices rise, so
:15:56. > :15:59.does stamp duty. The Treasury's coiffers grow so there are lots of
:16:00. > :16:03.incentives for the Government to be happy about this. And then we get
:16:04. > :16:06.back to boom and bust. Exactly, but as you say, lots of reasons for the
:16:07. > :16:09.Government to be happy with the election around the corner.
:16:10. > :16:12.Absolutely. Daysy and Simon, great to have you both in looking at the
:16:13. > :16:17.stories behind the headlines. Many thanks for that.
:16:18. > :16:24.We'll now go to that breaking news I was telling you about earlier. The
:16:25. > :16:25.apparent shooting, an incident. At the