07/05/2014

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:00:00. > :00:09.Trafford and tells reporters that he hopes to be the one. All that to

:00:10. > :00:15.come and more in Sportsday, in 15 minutes after the papers.

:00:16. > :00:20.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing

:00:21. > :00:22.us tomorrow. With me are former Government policy advisor and

:00:23. > :00:28.academic Zamila Bunglawala and Oliver Wright, Whitehall editor at

:00:29. > :00:33.the Independent. Let's have a look at some of the front pages. We will

:00:34. > :00:37.start with the Metro. Its leading on the capture of Michael Wheatley, the

:00:38. > :00:41.man known as the Skull Cracker. He had been on the run, open prison

:00:42. > :00:46.since Saturday. Telegraph runs with the same story, reporting that the

:00:47. > :00:50.justice minister is promising a change in prison release rules as a

:00:51. > :00:54.result. The Daily Express has a different story, warning that extra

:00:55. > :00:59.mile per hour gales are set to hit Britain in the next few days. The

:01:00. > :01:05.Guardian features a photo collage of the social media protest against the

:01:06. > :01:09.kidnapping of over 200 schoolgirls in northern Nigeria. The Financial

:01:10. > :01:11.Times is reporting on Vladimir Putin's appeal to pro`Russian

:01:12. > :01:17.supporters in eastern Ukraine to shelve the proposed referendum on

:01:18. > :01:22.independence. We are going to start with the Metro, we have cracked it.

:01:23. > :01:26.Police hold escaped robber after armed raid. The Skull Cracker, as he

:01:27. > :01:30.has been charmingly named, back behind bars? They may have cracked

:01:31. > :01:36.it, but it's a pretty long`running case. By my reckoning he's been in

:01:37. > :01:41.prison for 34 years, on and off, his escaped three times, committed close

:01:42. > :01:45.on 24 armed robberies. Most of the time simply after he has escaped,

:01:46. > :01:51.once to a hospital, then to an optician. Clearly, there is still

:01:52. > :01:54.stuff going on. It does lead you to slightly question why he was in an

:01:55. > :01:59.open prison, given that he had escaped twice before from prison on

:02:00. > :02:03.various different occasions, and carried out more armed robberies. I

:02:04. > :02:06.think there are some policy and locations. Clearly, this is an

:02:07. > :02:11.exceptional case and you can't make policy based on individual cases.

:02:12. > :02:13.But I think it plays into what the Telegraph is saying, clearly the

:02:14. > :02:17.Conservatives are trying to make some degree of political capital,

:02:18. > :02:24.saying, we are going to be tough on crime. But they have a fundamental

:02:25. > :02:28.problem, the jails are full. If we bring up the front page, jail must

:02:29. > :02:33.mean jail for violent criminals. The justice minister is apparently

:02:34. > :02:38.promising to change the rules after the Skull Cracker's flight from an

:02:39. > :02:44.open prison. It's interesting, you know, this story has moved into the

:02:45. > :02:48.policy arena now? As Oliver says, it is an exceptional case. We might

:02:49. > :02:53.have to change rules just for people like this. Regardless of how much

:02:54. > :02:56.time we have spent with him in prison, we have not managed to

:02:57. > :03:01.rehabilitate this man. Luckily he has been caught, but it is an

:03:02. > :03:05.exceptional case, how a person that can be in prison for decades can

:03:06. > :03:08.still commit the same crime within days of absconding. He could have

:03:09. > :03:18.been released, potentially we might have the same problem. Given the

:03:19. > :03:21.nature of his crimes, which could mean a tariff that would allow him,

:03:22. > :03:26.after a certain amount of time, to be released, do you reach a point

:03:27. > :03:30.with someone like him and say, you know what, the judge sits there and

:03:31. > :03:33.says, you just keep running out, despite the fact you could do a

:03:34. > :03:39.minimum term and be released, I'm going to have to lock you up for

:03:40. > :03:43.ever, this is madness. It's an interesting play on the term, life

:03:44. > :03:48.must mean life. Jail must mean jail. We are going to have to start

:03:49. > :03:52.rehabilitating prisoners that we can rehabilitate, and what that means,

:03:53. > :03:55.versus prisoners that we have even a chance to and cannot. It could have

:03:56. > :04:03.happened again, he could do what he is famous for. The word

:04:04. > :04:06.rehabilitation, it refers to the crime, I suppose, not necessarily

:04:07. > :04:13.the person that committed it? When you think about it? I don't know.

:04:14. > :04:17.Can you released that person back into society? They clearly felt that

:04:18. > :04:24.they could, given the nature of crimes he committed. What we know

:04:25. > :04:28.about open prisons is that is where they go when they are being prepared

:04:29. > :04:35.for release. It's always dangerous, remember, the dogs legislation, it's

:04:36. > :04:42.dangerous making policy on the back of individual cases. I mean this

:04:43. > :04:45.word in a bad sense, he is exceptional. He does not typify the

:04:46. > :04:49.vast majority of people in the prison system. Clearly there is

:04:50. > :04:53.something very odd about him. If he was about to be released, why

:04:54. > :04:57.abscond? He was only jailed for eight years in 2002, which would

:04:58. > :05:02.make him eligible for parole four years ago. Chances are, he was about

:05:03. > :05:05.to come out anyway. What kind of person, in any degree of sanity,

:05:06. > :05:08.with abscond when you know you are going to get locked back up again,

:05:09. > :05:16.when you are probably going to be released in a year? OK, onto the

:05:17. > :05:25.Telegraph. Panic buys as families face house shortage. I remember back

:05:26. > :05:28.in 1989, Nigel Lawson decided he was going to end double mortgage income

:05:29. > :05:32.tax relief. There was a mad rush them, that is when I bought my

:05:33. > :05:38.place. What did it do? It bang into prices up again. Is that what is

:05:39. > :05:43.going to happen now? I don't know how many families by panic buy

:05:44. > :05:47.houses. I wish I had money to panic buy! The story is that there are not

:05:48. > :05:51.enough two or three`bedroom houses, especially in the south`east, which

:05:52. > :05:54.we know Rostov is it a continuing supply problem which will push up

:05:55. > :06:00.prices? How money families are doing this? We don't know. Houses are not

:06:01. > :06:05.for many people. I don't understand if the market is going to cool for

:06:06. > :06:09.long enough for people to even buy these houses. But we do have an

:06:10. > :06:15.upward trend. This bubble is real, lots of people are feeling it. I

:06:16. > :06:21.have a bit of sympathy for Osborne and the Treasury. It's difficult,

:06:22. > :06:24.you have two different housing markets. You have the housing market

:06:25. > :06:28.around London and a housing market in other parts of the country. In

:06:29. > :06:32.other parts of the country, it isn't that bloated and people are finding

:06:33. > :06:36.it very hard to buy. In London we say, there is a housing bubble, but

:06:37. > :06:41.I don't think you would think that in parts of Cornwall, parts of the

:06:42. > :06:46.north`east or north`west. How do you create a national policy that does

:06:47. > :06:49.not have an effect somewhere else? I think it is really tricky. That

:06:50. > :06:54.would make it very difficult for this government, trying to deal with

:06:55. > :06:57.what a lot of people suggest is a housing bubble. We heard the OECD

:06:58. > :07:05.yesterday suggest this is where we are heading. They may have to think

:07:06. > :07:09.about interest`rate rises, that would be the Bank of England,

:07:10. > :07:13.cutting back on help to buy. All of these little levers are going to

:07:14. > :07:16.force people to think, we need to get in here before this happens and

:07:17. > :07:21.that will Stoke the bubble even more? I think you are right. There

:07:22. > :07:24.has to be a multiple effects with how we handle this. The London prize

:07:25. > :07:28.has gone up in double digits in the last year. It will take more than

:07:29. > :07:32.just fiscal measures to fix the problem. We don't seem to be talking

:07:33. > :07:35.about building more houses, especially in the south`east. There

:07:36. > :07:40.is space to do this. We have to talk about policy measures as well.

:07:41. > :07:45.Labour says it wants to build 1 million homes if it gets into power.

:07:46. > :07:50.Villa Matra right, but... Where? Exactly.

:07:51. > :07:56.It rest on what is happening in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin beat a

:07:57. > :08:02.retreat, according to the Guardian, over the referendum? We have been

:08:03. > :08:07.here before, the Geneva peace talks, where he was saying, we will scale

:08:08. > :08:10.back our support for the separatist 's, they will disarm, have

:08:11. > :08:16.elections. Where did that go? I think we need to treat what he says

:08:17. > :08:25.with a degree of scepticism. I think it is also true that it is not in

:08:26. > :08:27.Russia's interest is for the whole situation to deteriorate, partly

:08:28. > :08:32.because of sanctions and partly because it is on their border. There

:08:33. > :08:38.is a sizeable majority that do not want to go to Russia. This is not

:08:39. > :08:41.Crimea repeated. This is a much more difficult situation, 30% of the

:08:42. > :08:46.population in eastern Ukraine are ethnically Russian, 70% are not.

:08:47. > :08:51.Giving it to Russia or Russia intervening is not the solution and

:08:52. > :08:58.Russia knows that. This may be the first sign that Vladimir Putin is

:08:59. > :09:04.changing strategy. It may just be a slight game. There are two things at

:09:05. > :09:09.play. If the result of the referendum is, we want to join

:09:10. > :09:14.Russia, the Russians and Moscow may feel duty bound to actually do

:09:15. > :09:17.something, as they did with Crimea. But if they did that, that could

:09:18. > :09:24.bring a whole world of pain into sanctions? Absolutely. If people are

:09:25. > :09:32.given the chance to speak, it would be terrifying if we did not listen

:09:33. > :09:34.to what they asked for. But the referendum is being organised by

:09:35. > :09:40.people that want to be part of Russia. How would he look if he

:09:41. > :09:52.ignored the result? Which is why he is now saying, don't do it. That is

:09:53. > :09:56.possible, that he does not want a flawed referendum, which it would

:09:57. > :10:02.be. Or he does not want eastern Ukraine, that is fundamentally it, I

:10:03. > :10:06.think. We will have to see what happens. It could be a temporary

:10:07. > :10:10.move. He's trying to see where sanctions may go next. Because

:10:11. > :10:14.Russia is hurting because of the sanctions and that is the long`term

:10:15. > :10:20.measure that could take place. The other thing worth bearing in mind is

:10:21. > :10:24.that there is domestic pressure on Vladimir Putin. We see it in the

:10:25. > :10:29.West as being personified in him. But what he is doing is very popular

:10:30. > :10:34.in Russia. If he was seen to be more conciliatory to the west, that would

:10:35. > :10:43.not be as popular. The Guardian, red alert for Nigeria. The growing and

:10:44. > :10:56.global protest against Boko Haram, this crackpot cult which has

:10:57. > :10:58.abducted 200 girls in Nigeria. They have been missing for more than

:10:59. > :11:04.three weeks and we still don't know where they are. When the Boko Haram

:11:05. > :11:07.video came out, the man said, we are going to sell these girls, talking

:11:08. > :11:13.about slavery, still, in Africa today. Nigeria is one of the

:11:14. > :11:16.powerhouses of Africa. It is a positive economic story. Yes, we

:11:17. > :11:21.know there is corruption, but we did not know this kind of problem was

:11:22. > :11:25.still happening on this scale. We wonder what the ripple effects might

:11:26. > :11:28.be. Lots of families not going to send their daughters to school,

:11:29. > :11:31.because they fear they are going to be abducted and kidnapped. It is

:11:32. > :11:35.great that the international community is picking this up,

:11:36. > :11:41.probably because Nigeria has been slow to pick this up. Social media

:11:42. > :11:46.does have these benefits. We heard David Cameron talk about the fact he

:11:47. > :11:51.has daughters. We suspect there has been a lot of pressure, as well,

:11:52. > :11:56.from the first lady on this kind of issue for President Obama. The

:11:57. > :12:07.President is Goodluck Jonathan, he has not had much luck on this issue?

:12:08. > :12:15.There is a perception in Nigeria that he is weak. He is a strange

:12:16. > :12:19.guy. The governor got picked up at Heathrow airport on money`laundering

:12:20. > :12:23.charges so he became governor. Benny was appointed to vice president then

:12:24. > :12:29.the president died. He took over that and won the election in 2010.

:12:30. > :12:33.There is a perception that he has been a weak president. But is not to

:12:34. > :12:38.say a strongman president is not what Nigeria needs or wants, but

:12:39. > :12:44.certainly, his handling of this crisis has not gone down well.

:12:45. > :12:49.Public opinion in Nigeria will be sending the army but that is easier

:12:50. > :12:57.said than done. Indeed. There is a vast area to cover. Back to the

:12:58. > :13:03.Telegraph. Abu Hamza, apparently he had a deal with MI5 to keep Britain

:13:04. > :13:06.safe while preaching hatred. It sounds at first glance like an

:13:07. > :13:11.extraordinary story which we should not believe but it has the ring of

:13:12. > :13:18.authenticity about. The period the paper is talking about is between

:13:19. > :13:25.1997 and 2000 so before 9/11. What we do know is the security services

:13:26. > :13:28.had a fairly ambivalent attitude towards Islamic fundamentalists,

:13:29. > :13:33.that quite a few of them, we gave the Silent Hill and we allowed them

:13:34. > :13:36.to carry on much to the fury of governments like Saudi Arabia and

:13:37. > :13:42.Jordan, as long as they did not cause trouble in this country, we

:13:43. > :13:45.turned a blind eye to what they did elsewhere. It is not impossible that

:13:46. > :13:51.Abu Hamza was involved in this. There is an interesting line which

:13:52. > :13:56.comes up at the court case in New York. He claims he has got

:13:57. > :14:00.documentary evidence to prove it. The prosecution is trying to say

:14:01. > :14:07.this evidence is inadmissible. I think it would be interesting to

:14:08. > :14:13.hear. This might give a reason as to why, there were issues in terms of

:14:14. > :14:18.prosecuting on a number of levels. Fire macro absolutely. This is

:14:19. > :14:22.pre`9/11. There was a lot of difference about how we spoke about

:14:23. > :14:32.the Muslim community in Britain and how we spoke about isn't as

:14:33. > :14:39.overseas, we did not call it that. `` Islam. I think we would have to

:14:40. > :14:45.physically see the documentation. I find it difficult to see how MI5

:14:46. > :14:50.knew pre`9/11 how dangerous this man could be, but also to see how we

:14:51. > :14:53.were distrustful of the Muslim community in Britain before 9/11 so

:14:54. > :15:00.it is a difficult story to pin down. I would like to see The Papers. I

:15:01. > :15:04.think we all would. You will be back in our's time to look at the stories

:15:05. > :15:09.behind the headlines. Stay with us here because at the top of the hour

:15:10. > :15:15.we will have more on that chap there, he is the skull cracker and

:15:16. > :15:16.is back in jail. Now it is time for Sportsday. There was a big football

:15:17. > :15:31.match tonight. Hello and welcome to Sportsday. I'm

:15:32. > :15:32.Lizzie Greenwood`Hughes. The headlines this