:00:00. > 3:59:59between Hamilton and opinion. In rugby, news regarding two of
:00:00. > :00:18.England's fly halves. Hello, and welcome to our look ahead
:00:19. > :00:20.to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. With me are Beth Rigby,
:00:21. > :00:23.deputy political editor at The Financial Times, and John Kampfner,
:00:24. > :00:28.director of Creative Industries Federation.
:00:29. > :00:32.Let's look at some of the front pages. We are going to start with
:00:33. > :00:36.The Financial Times. It says the Bank of England is close to raising
:00:37. > :00:40.interest rates. The Daily Telegraph is reporting 15 million British
:00:41. > :00:45.users of eBay have to change their passwords after a security breach.
:00:46. > :00:48.The Independent is wondering if David Cameron and Boris Johnson will
:00:49. > :00:53.be Eurostars in the European elections. The Guardian says an
:00:54. > :00:56.internal the bull Democrat briefing paper is warning senior officials
:00:57. > :01:03.that the party could be completely wiped out in the European actions,
:01:04. > :01:12.failing to win a seat. The Metro also leads on the breach of eBay's
:01:13. > :01:16.users online safety, the hackers broke into a database. The Daily
:01:17. > :01:21.Mail says Russian diplomats will demand an explanation from the
:01:22. > :01:24.Foreign Office after Prince Charles reportedly likened Vladimir Putin to
:01:25. > :01:28.Adolf Hitler. We're going to start with the
:01:29. > :01:32.Independent. The European elections, a picture of or is Johnson and the
:01:33. > :01:39.Prime Minister. They are actually in this photograph, in Newark,
:01:40. > :01:43.campaigning for the by`election. Despite all of the mud flung at
:01:44. > :01:49.UKIP, Nigel Farage is maintaining his going to do very well? He is
:01:50. > :01:54.Teflon, nothing sticks. For weeks, all of the polls have suggested UKIP
:01:55. > :02:01.will either top the polls or come second behind Labour. That has not
:02:02. > :02:07.changed. You are left with the situation, do the Lib Dems end up
:02:08. > :02:10.with a complete wipe`out, no MEPs? Do the Conservatives then tear
:02:11. > :02:16.themselves apart after the European elections because a lot of their MPs
:02:17. > :02:20.get spooked, if UKIP have a strong show in their local constituency?
:02:21. > :02:25.There is a lot to play for. People don't necessarily... The public
:02:26. > :02:30.don't necessarily engage in European elections. Who even knows who their
:02:31. > :02:40.local European MP is? But in terms of the domestic lytic or picture,
:02:41. > :02:44.it's a big deal. `` the domestic picture. Is it the Conservatives
:02:45. > :02:48.that have the most to fear? We know that UKIP are taking votes and
:02:49. > :02:52.support from all the parties, but is it the Conservatives that have the
:02:53. > :02:59.most to fear about tomorrow's elections? By the way, I always love
:03:00. > :03:08.the choreography of news stories. I love the way you have this picture,
:03:09. > :03:13.this somewhat schmoozing, romantic picture of Dave and Boris, nestling
:03:14. > :03:17.up together on this bench. I love the idea of the spin doctors behind
:03:18. > :03:22.the camera saying, out of the way, everybody else, we want a picture of
:03:23. > :03:25.the guys on their own! It is probably a crowded platform. It's
:03:26. > :03:32.the classic way to manufacture a picture. The point about Nigel
:03:33. > :03:36.Farage, nothing sticking, that is right. I think all three mainstream
:03:37. > :03:40.leaders have got a lot to lose. Paradoxically, I think they have all
:03:41. > :03:45.factored in their night of humiliation already. They may have
:03:46. > :03:50.done, but the public probably hasn't. For David Cameron, he should
:03:51. > :03:55.be doing pretty well. He is going to come third place, if elections are
:03:56. > :03:59.correct, which is pretty terrible for the Conservatives. Even if
:04:00. > :04:03.Labour women, they should be streets ahead at this point, they may not
:04:04. > :04:07.even win, UKIP may win. As you were alluding to in the headlines, the
:04:08. > :04:12.Lib Dems fear they will be completely wiped out, they could get
:04:13. > :04:16.zero or two at very best, five out of 11 MEPs re`elected. In different
:04:17. > :04:23.ways, different reasons, disasters for all three. Nick Clegg was on the
:04:24. > :04:27.Andrew Marr Show on Sunday and was saying, he was trying to deflect the
:04:28. > :04:32.attention away from what was going to be a drubbing for them, that
:04:33. > :04:36.Labour, one big story that could come out of this, is that Labour get
:04:37. > :04:42.really attacked by UKIP in the northern heartlands, their
:04:43. > :04:47.heartlands. That could become an emerging story. At the moment, it is
:04:48. > :04:50.always about the Tories versus UKIP. Actually, UKIP is about
:04:51. > :04:54.disaffection. There are lots of people in the north that probably
:04:55. > :04:58.feel disaffected as well. Don't forget, in the old days,
:04:59. > :05:02.disaffection and Andy politics usually went to the Lib Dems. Now
:05:03. > :05:06.they are part of the establishment, part of government. The elite,
:05:07. > :05:15.according to Nigel Farage. Let's go to the Guardian. Lib Dems braced for
:05:16. > :05:20.total wipe`out. Is it a possible point of solace for the main parties
:05:21. > :05:23.that when it comes to Europe, we are talking about proportional
:05:24. > :05:28.representation? A smaller party like UKIP is bound to do better than it
:05:29. > :05:33.would do in 2015? Also, there is a long, established history, not just
:05:34. > :05:35.in the UK but in other countries. Andy politics parties all over the
:05:36. > :05:43.shop in Europe are going to do well. `` anti`politics. You are
:05:44. > :05:48.looking at France, the Netherlands, elsewhere. Usually parties of the
:05:49. > :05:53.right, but not necessarily, they are going to do well. They are all kind
:05:54. > :05:58.of normal the above, antiestablishment parties. When you
:05:59. > :06:03.come to general elections, particularly first past the post, so
:06:04. > :06:06.the conventional wisdom goes, to be tested, people get spooked by the
:06:07. > :06:09.possibility and revert back to the conventional ways. But there is a
:06:10. > :06:13.lot of our politics now that is different. That has been a trend for
:06:14. > :06:16.so long to move away from the two main parties. We have fixed
:06:17. > :06:19.parlance, what difference does that make us to knock that is a broader
:06:20. > :06:28.point. You have general disaffection. The easy reassurance,
:06:29. > :06:32.sure, we have the locals but everyone will grow up and move on
:06:33. > :06:36.after that, that will be tested. With all of the mode that has been
:06:37. > :06:40.flying at UKIP, none of it has stuck, they have an incredibly
:06:41. > :06:46.charismatic leader. They are tapping into, for a lot of people, a
:06:47. > :06:53.groundswell of disaffection that is chiming? I agree with that. Also,
:06:54. > :06:58.what UKIP have that appeals to people disaffected by politics, as
:06:59. > :07:04.one pundit said to me once, a strategist said, you know, 99% of
:07:05. > :07:08.politics is just noise. People don't pick up on it. Nigel Farage has a
:07:09. > :07:11.very simple proposition. Let's control immigration, let's get out
:07:12. > :07:16.of Europe. People can attach to that. I think he was actually...
:07:17. > :07:22.He's been a ubiquitous, everywhere, if I was on the Green Party, I would
:07:23. > :07:25.be annoyed. He was on the today programme this morning, on Radio 4,
:07:26. > :07:30.being interviewed. I thought what he said there was very interesting.
:07:31. > :07:36.Talking of this idea of the general election, the protest vote fall
:07:37. > :07:39.away, he said, no, we are going to use the European actions, the local
:07:40. > :07:45.elections, to bed in in areas where we can build a base. As the Lib Dems
:07:46. > :07:50.did in the Paddy Ashdown, we are going to get strongholds and build a
:07:51. > :07:56.base and build from the ground up. Actually, come 2015, we can put a
:07:57. > :08:02.dozen MPs in Parliament. It's not that preposterous, that idea.
:08:03. > :08:06.Particularly when you have a hung parliament. People do think that
:08:07. > :08:12.hung parliaments, a balance of power, it can be held by minority.
:08:13. > :08:15.That story will run and run, particularly after tomorrow. The
:08:16. > :08:20.front page of the Guardian as well, Beth, Theresa May stuns the Police
:08:21. > :08:24.Federation with a bow to break its power. She gave a 30 minute speech,
:08:25. > :08:30.and there was silence when she was finished, absolute silence. No
:08:31. > :08:37.booing, no cheering, no polite applause, nothing. They were so
:08:38. > :08:40.upset about what she said? Well, Home Secretary 's and police
:08:41. > :08:48.federations, this happens often in speeches. They usually do something,
:08:49. > :08:54.they don't sit there? Sometimes they boo, they are broken. She basically
:08:55. > :08:57.said today that the legitimacy of British policing is in the balance,
:08:58. > :09:01.following things like the Stephen Lawrence case. Plebgate, with Andrew
:09:02. > :09:06.Mitchell. She promised to break the power of the unions. Politically,
:09:07. > :09:11.what this shows, I think, is that she is a Home Secretary at the
:09:12. > :09:15.height of her power. She had a great run, she is tough and she feels
:09:16. > :09:18.empowered enough that she can really begin to take on the Police
:09:19. > :09:22.Federation. She is doing that against a backdrop of Chris
:09:23. > :09:29.Grayling, in the Department of Justice, with prison breaks. She has
:09:30. > :09:34.really gone for them. I have a different take on that. If you look
:09:35. > :09:36.at the bonfire of public bodies we were just talking about,
:09:37. > :09:42.antiestablishment stuff, Parliament is unpopular, journalists are
:09:43. > :09:45.unpopular and always have been, the BBC get a good kicking. There is
:09:46. > :09:50.probably no public body that is less popular and has less credibility
:09:51. > :09:53.than the Police Federation. You could list all of the stuff they
:09:54. > :10:00.have been up to, defending the indefensible, defending the old
:10:01. > :10:06.producer capture vested interests, instead of driving up standards.
:10:07. > :10:10.Theresa May, quite a divisive figure in her own right, I would wonder if
:10:11. > :10:13.she has not gained plaudits pretty much everywhere, with the exception
:10:14. > :10:17.of this project will interest group, by simply telling them what they
:10:18. > :10:23.should have done a long time ago, to sort themselves out. All this in the
:10:24. > :10:27.week that Abu Qatada went to jail? The Financial Times, the Bank of
:10:28. > :10:34.England, Beth, is edging closer to an early rate rise. Not if, but
:10:35. > :10:39.when, now? Basically, we have and the economic recovery seeming to be
:10:40. > :10:44.secured, wages rising, will inflation keep arising? Basically,
:10:45. > :10:52.the Bank of England is considering to raise interest rates from 0.5%,
:10:53. > :11:02.and it has been since 2009. The first European bank to do this since
:11:03. > :11:10.2011. This is politically very unwelcome by George Osborne. The
:11:11. > :11:16.smart money seemed to be on January, February, maybe March. Now
:11:17. > :11:21.it might be ill If you are the Chancellor, you don't want it to
:11:22. > :11:26.happen before the election. There are also savers as well. But they
:11:27. > :11:31.have been quite well served under George Osborne. Interestingly, this
:11:32. > :11:36.theme, and I think it will run, it has been picked up by Labour because
:11:37. > :11:41.they are very worried that Ed Miliband's cost of living crisis
:11:42. > :11:45.argument is falling away. Actually, if interest rates go up and
:11:46. > :11:49.everybody's mortgages go up, people like me, very heavily mortgaged from
:11:50. > :11:55.the heady days when you could borrow multiple times your salary on
:11:56. > :12:01.interest only... Depends how much, even 1%, I am old enough to remember
:12:02. > :12:05.15% interest rates. That is why it is likely to go up sooner, rather
:12:06. > :12:12.than later, so they can keep it gradual. That is why the suggestion
:12:13. > :12:15.is it could autumn. And the danger is, just as people are beginning to
:12:16. > :12:20.feel more optimistic about the economy, wages are now catching up
:12:21. > :12:22.with inflation, they are beginning to feel a bit like they have a bit
:12:23. > :12:33.more money in their pockets, suddenly their mortgage payments go
:12:34. > :12:37.up. Briefly, Russia and China striking a $400 billion deal the
:12:38. > :12:42.gas. Russia looking to China and not Europe to flog its energy.
:12:43. > :12:47.Absolutely. Diplomatic relations with the West, particularly the US
:12:48. > :12:51.and to a degree with Western Europe, have gone into freefall and there is
:12:52. > :12:56.no prospect of that calming down soon. President Putin is probably
:12:57. > :13:00.more in his comfort zone with the Chinese than the West. He dabbled in
:13:01. > :13:10.2000 for reasons that we could argue about at in the night but we have
:13:11. > :13:13.not got time. `` ad nauseam. And there is self`interest for the
:13:14. > :13:18.Russians to strike this particular deal but it has taken ten years to
:13:19. > :13:22.negotiate. It is all about Ukraine, isn't it? Well, what it does for
:13:23. > :13:31.Russia is it signals for Europe don't take my gas. I can do a deal
:13:32. > :13:35.with Asia. An analyst is quoted saying it is strategically important
:13:36. > :13:39.for Gazprom because it allows it to show Europe that it has other
:13:40. > :13:43.options. In terms of the leverage that Europe has, the limited
:13:44. > :13:50.leverage that Europe seems to have over Putin in terms of Ukraine, this
:13:51. > :13:54.has been knocked down. On the day that Prince Charles is said to have
:13:55. > :13:59.likened President Putin to Adolf Hitler. Thank you. You will be back
:14:00. > :14:03.in an hour for more of the stories that Fleet Street is trying to flog
:14:04. > :14:06.us. Stay with us on BBC News. Much more at the top of the hour but
:14:07. > :14:21.first it is Sportsday. Hello and welcome to Sportsday with
:14:22. > :14:24.me, Ore Oduba. Coming up tonight: England's under 17s show the seniors
:14:25. > :14:31.how it's done, winning the European Championship title on penalties.
:14:32. > :14:33.Hibs are a step closer to keeping their place in the Scottish
:14:34. > :14:35.Premiership, beating Hamilton in the play`off final first