:00:00. > :00:00.the extreme north`west of Scotland. Good spells of sunshine and always
:00:00. > :00:00.foremost in the south. That will continue into next week as well.
:00:00. > :00:21.Good night. Hello and welcome to our look ahead
:00:22. > :00:24.to what the the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. With me is the
:00:25. > :00:27.political journalist and blogger, Susie Boniface, also known as the
:00:28. > :00:29.Fleet Street Fox, and Kiran Stacey, Political Correspondent for the
:00:30. > :00:32.Financial Times. Tomorrow's front pages. The Telegraph has a clear
:00:33. > :00:38.warning from the Business Secretary Vince Cable: don't raise interest
:00:39. > :00:45.rates. The Express says that a cure of Alzheimer's could be a reality in
:00:46. > :00:48.just over a decade. Murdered for being Muslim is the Metro's headline
:00:49. > :00:51.as police investigate the murder of a student stabbed to death in a
:00:52. > :00:54.park. The Guardian focuses on Iraq as the government there asks the US
:00:55. > :01:00.for air`strikes on ISIS insurgents in Tal Afar. More on Iraq in the FT
:01:01. > :01:03.with the news that oil companies are evacuating staff from refineries
:01:04. > :01:06.across the country. A political lead on the front of the Times, with two
:01:07. > :01:14.polls that reportedly suggest voters do not think Ed Miliband would make
:01:15. > :01:18.a good PM. A report in the Mirror suggests that levels of poverty in
:01:19. > :01:21.Britain are increasing. And the Mail has news that Charles Taylor, the
:01:22. > :01:24.warlord convicted of crimes in Sierra Leone and jailed by the Hague
:01:25. > :01:26.for 50 years, is suing the government, saying his detention
:01:27. > :01:38.here breaches his human rights. So let's begin.
:01:39. > :01:41.We are going with the i. Miliband to abolish jobseeker's allowance for
:01:42. > :01:44.the young and he is standing there with his fist clenched. Is this in
:01:45. > :01:52.getting tough on benefits? a bacon sandwich in his mouth. He is
:01:53. > :02:00.doing the funny fest that politicians do. They are doing it
:02:01. > :02:07.for emphasis. They are trained to do it. They say we don't like people
:02:08. > :02:07.pointing because it feels offensive. Instead, you do this,
:02:08. > :02:18.which looks like positive, though it is punchy. It is
:02:19. > :02:20.a media training thing. It is like when they do this at the dispatch
:02:21. > :02:45.box. Stick with this allowance. When we spoke on
:02:46. > :02:49.this I got told off for taking too long. Three key policies. If you are
:02:50. > :02:54.under 22 and you don't have low skills `` if you have low skills,
:02:55. > :03:00.you won't get the allowance. You only get a high rate of the
:03:01. > :03:04.allowance, 71 pounds per week if you have done five years of paying
:03:05. > :03:10.insurance. Young people can't claim housing benefit. Well done. There
:03:11. > :03:19.you go. Not as punchy as the Tories who is a ?35,000 cap as a whole for
:03:20. > :03:27.your benefits. That is the problem. Will it get around the voters who
:03:28. > :03:28.feel Labour have been soft on the benefit issue? If you think Labour
:03:29. > :03:39.are soft on benefits, then probably isn't going to restore your
:03:40. > :03:41.faith. You think it is hot air. If you think Labour should support the
:03:42. > :03:50.welfare state, it might make you think about whether you want to
:03:51. > :03:54.the Times shows, he has terrible personal ratings and is less popular
:03:55. > :04:01.than Nick Clegg. We have just moved on to the Times if you want to bring
:04:02. > :04:10.it up. Not up to the top job, say voters. Pressure part of a leader.
:04:11. > :04:16.Interestingly, a poll shows that 49% of voters think he should be
:04:17. > :04:22.replaced. 43% of Labour voters think he should be replaced. 43%? That is
:04:23. > :04:31.his own side. They feel that this is what... You are taking the mickey
:04:32. > :04:37.out of politicians. I am going to notice this. Alan Johnston, the main
:04:38. > :04:46.rival to be the Labour leader at some point in future has said that
:04:47. > :04:51.aired isn't able to connect with people very well. In the same way
:04:52. > :04:59.that his brother could have done, who of course was... It isn't his
:05:00. > :05:05.strong point. People aren't enthusiastic about it. It isn't his
:05:06. > :05:10.policies, his technical ideas about the economy or restoring faith in
:05:11. > :05:15.benefits, the problem is he cannot get across to people that they
:05:16. > :05:18.should like him. Being PM is basically flirting your way into
:05:19. > :05:24.Downing Street, pleasing people all the time, making people think you
:05:25. > :05:28.like them. I would rather flirt with a lamppost. I would be more
:05:29. > :05:36.successful. You would rather vote for a lamppost than Ed Miliband?
:05:37. > :05:42.Could it get any worse? They won't ditch him now. It is too late. What
:05:43. > :05:47.can they do? They have David Axelrod in. He got a black man, Hussain, to
:05:48. > :05:51.lead the most him Porton country on the face of the earth. Surely, he
:05:52. > :05:55.could get a lamppost voted in. I am not sure that Miliband and Barack
:05:56. > :06:02.Obama are not quite the same. Not quite the same message of hope.
:06:03. > :06:10.David Axelrod two days per month, who cannot spell Ed Miliband's name
:06:11. > :06:19.correctly . It is clear that there is an open goal that if the Labor
:06:20. > :06:26.leader, 18,000 without adequate housing, many living in damp
:06:27. > :06:32.housing, and if this is true, with the gap between rich and poor
:06:33. > :06:35.widening, it is easy for anyone in opposition under these circumstances
:06:36. > :06:38.to come up with policies like this, connecting with enough people,
:06:39. > :06:47.millions, and Ed Miliband is not doing this. Everyone is saying it is
:06:48. > :06:54.easy. These people aren't stupid. What is going on? If they can't kick
:06:55. > :06:58.the ball into the open goal. The same as with the England team, it is
:06:59. > :07:01.a matter of inspiration and the person at the top getting everyone
:07:02. > :07:09.together, firing them up and getting them think they can win. The people
:07:10. > :07:14.who vote are doing OK. These are the people who have houses and they see
:07:15. > :07:19.the prices rise. These are people having a good time because of low
:07:20. > :07:23.interest rates, people with jobs. Admittedly, wages have not gone up
:07:24. > :07:27.quickly. Though they have jobs still. These people see the glass
:07:28. > :07:36.half full, rather than half empty. Is that the problem ? Labour are
:07:37. > :07:42.ahead in the polls. They should be further ahead. I am not sure...
:07:43. > :07:49.There are two versions, interpretations of what is gone
:07:50. > :07:52.wrong. He is to left`wing. When there is a right`wing chant Allah,
:07:53. > :07:58.Ed Miliband is on the wrong side of the debate. `` Chancellor. All that
:07:59. > :08:06.does is help his own side, people who will vote for him anyway. The
:08:07. > :08:12.other problem, they aren't mutually exclusive, whatever he says, people
:08:13. > :08:19.don't listen. He doesn't have the sex appeal. No matter how good or
:08:20. > :08:24.useful or useless the policies may be, they are technical, thoughtful,
:08:25. > :08:32.academic. There isn't any passion or feeling. The energy price freeze was
:08:33. > :08:37.eye`catching. Easy to understand. It worked. He hasn't got anything like
:08:38. > :08:49.that on the other side, being tough on benefits, what will Labour do?
:08:50. > :08:52.They think they can be in power because the coalition is unpopular
:08:53. > :08:57.and if they play the numbers right, if they get a 35% share, they can be
:08:58. > :09:03.in power. That is not the way to convince people. It is not the way
:09:04. > :09:07.to have a democratic mandate. If it was the other Ed Miliband running
:09:08. > :09:11.labour, given the economy is improving, given that anyone in
:09:12. > :09:15.Labour is fighting the perception that they were responsible, 100% for
:09:16. > :09:23.the economic crash of five years ago, would they do any better? I
:09:24. > :09:27.don't think so. The polls we looked at suggest David Millar band would
:09:28. > :09:32.do better. The problem with David is that he was too connected to the
:09:33. > :09:41.past. He ran a campaign about being a continuity candidate `` David
:09:42. > :09:48.Milliband. He is weird and geeky. He was supportive of the Iraq war. That
:09:49. > :09:54.would be disastrous in the run`up to the election. I don't think he would
:09:55. > :10:01.be a good idea. We need a woman, Yvette Cooper should step up to the
:10:02. > :10:06.plate. I am sure she is watching tonight and not the other bloke on
:10:07. > :10:14.Newsnight. What's his name? I have forgotten. There you go, step up to
:10:15. > :10:24.the plate lady. The Telegraph. Vince Cable, don't raise interest rates, a
:10:25. > :10:31.plea on bended knee to Mr Carney. It depends on the timeframe. We see
:10:32. > :10:34.elsewhere, it looks like the Monetary Policy Committee, the Bank
:10:35. > :10:37.of England's decision`making committee, is gearing up towards an
:10:38. > :10:42.interest rate) and of the year. That is earlier than expected. ``
:10:43. > :10:46.interest`rate rise. They want to ensure inflation doesn't build.
:10:47. > :10:49.Vince Cable is worried about the number of people who are
:10:50. > :10:56.overleveraged, they have borrowed a lot to buy their house. I have seen
:10:57. > :11:01.in the Times, a study that showed people are borrowing 4`5 `6 even
:11:02. > :11:08.seven times their salary to get a home in the south`east. The banks
:11:09. > :11:12.are clamping down on that. And lot of people have borrowed at rock
:11:13. > :11:16.bottom rates. If you are on a mortgage, you are paying a minimal
:11:17. > :11:23.amount, you can do it, though, what does happen when interest rates rise
:11:24. > :11:29.as Mac will you begin defaulting? I have just borrowed a lot, you just
:11:30. > :11:36.fix. I am fixed, I am all right. Hopefully, I will be OK. The worry
:11:37. > :11:39.is when people start to default. Mark Carney in Canada raised it a
:11:40. > :11:44.little and left it there for a while to see what the market does. You can
:11:45. > :11:55.always change things. Nothing major will happen overnight, it won't jump
:11:56. > :11:58.to 14%. It will be gradual. A lot of this is shouting about something now
:11:59. > :12:06.so that when it comes around, no one is surprised. You don't want to
:12:07. > :12:09.shock the market. There have been minutes from a Bank of England
:12:10. > :12:13.meeting saying they were surprised people were not more aware there
:12:14. > :12:19.could be a possibility of a rise. It means, get used to the idea. It will
:12:20. > :12:23.be a tiny 0.25% rise and it won't be the end of the world. The reason
:12:24. > :12:26.this is happening and they are talking about interest rates is
:12:27. > :12:32.because of rising house prices, which is because of George Osborne
:12:33. > :12:38.'s help to buy scheme. I think they would be rising anyway. Is something
:12:39. > :12:49.they have not removed from the market. The first thing they should
:12:50. > :12:52.do is cope Help to Buy. `` curb. They have a better chance of a
:12:53. > :12:56.majority in 2015, they want them up as high as they came for the next
:12:57. > :13:03.year. Speaking about feeling good, we know England will win by what,
:13:04. > :13:11.5`6 mil? The stats. The point to an England win `` nil. Analysis
:13:12. > :13:15.suggests England will win. This is how we tackle full ball on the
:13:16. > :13:21.Financial Times. None of York press conferences at our Steven Gerard.
:13:22. > :13:26.Simon Cooper, who is a brilliant writer on football and has written a
:13:27. > :13:29.book about economics in soccer and why certain things happen, he has
:13:30. > :13:35.come up with three statistics tell us why England will win `` your. The
:13:36. > :13:43.last time Uruguay at beat a Western European site was in 1966. That is a
:13:44. > :13:51.long time ago `` side. They have lost against Spain, Germany, France.
:13:52. > :13:53.Argentina have the same problem. Simon Cooper says the problem is
:13:54. > :13:58.that South American teams don't move the ball around quickly enough.
:13:59. > :14:05.England are good at that, moving the ball around quickly. Very quickly.
:14:06. > :14:14.England completed 91% of passes last week. The only reason they lost is
:14:15. > :14:17.because 92% of passes were completed. He also missed the fact
:14:18. > :14:21.that Uruguay have never beaten them in the World Cup. We did not talk
:14:22. > :14:28.about Luis Suarez. It has been brilliant having you in, discussing
:14:29. > :14:31.the important issues. Stay with us here, much more at the top of the
:14:32. > :14:34.hour. It is time for World Cup Sportsday.