:00:15. > :00:17.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers
:00:18. > :00:22.With me are political commentator Jo Phillips and Nigel Nelson,
:00:23. > :00:27.who is political editor of the Sunday People.
:00:28. > :00:30.Tomorrow's front pages, starting with:
:00:31. > :00:32.The Observer says the Conservative Party is in chaos
:00:33. > :00:37.as it begins its party conference following the defection of one MP
:00:38. > :00:43.The Mail says the two surprises have wrecked Mr Cameron's chances of
:00:44. > :00:51.using the conference as a launchpad to win the General Election.
:00:52. > :01:01.She is pictured on the Telegraph, too.
:01:02. > :01:05.The paper says Mark Reckless lost faith in Mr Cameron after a furious
:01:06. > :01:10.And the Express leads on the same story:
:01:11. > :01:34.What an incredible day, politically. Let's begin on what the mail on
:01:35. > :01:39.Sunday is leading on tomorrow, the minister forced to quit over
:01:40. > :01:43.Internet sex shame. More details of what these allegations are from
:01:44. > :01:50.another Sunday newspaper over this minister. The other papers have had
:01:51. > :01:57.to play catch up fairly quickly. This is a Sunday Mirror story.
:01:58. > :02:04.Broadly, Brooks Newmark, the civil society minister, was caught sending
:02:05. > :02:08.explicit pictures of the social media having established a rapport
:02:09. > :02:13.with someone on social media. He thought he was talking to a young
:02:14. > :02:15.woman but he was talking to a freelance undercover reporter. The
:02:16. > :02:22.moment he realised what had happened, he quit. It was within
:02:23. > :02:28.less than an hour after he had been told the story would run in tomorrow
:02:29. > :02:34.morning's papers and he went. Clearly, he felt it was serious
:02:35. > :02:41.enough to resign. David Cameron has not had the usual friendly letters
:02:42. > :02:43.when you normally do in these occasions and has immediately
:02:44. > :02:51.replaced him with another minister but it is a very bad start to David
:02:52. > :02:57.Cameron's Tory conference. The Tory conference wouldn't be the same
:02:58. > :03:05.without a bombshell! We have got to now! Brooks Newmark doesn't actually
:03:06. > :03:08.admit to what the allegations are. Our reporters have been in contact
:03:09. > :03:14.with him and he says he wants to spend time with his family and
:03:15. > :03:21.doesn't say whether they chew but he has resigned. That does put out the
:03:22. > :03:25.fire, so to speak, and stop the endless days of calls for his
:03:26. > :03:29.resignation. One assumes that if this was not true comic he would
:03:30. > :03:39.fight tooth and nail to defend his name. The last thing a minister like
:03:40. > :03:47.him would want is this overshadowing the conference. At worst or best,
:03:48. > :03:51.depending on which way you look at it, it's a terrible error of
:03:52. > :04:00.judgement. He has made a complete fool of himself. But he has slightly
:04:01. > :04:10.stolen Mark Reckless's thunder! The focus is very much on both. In the
:04:11. > :04:15.Observer double whammy for Mr Cameron, who is remaining silent
:04:16. > :04:18.tonight as he walked into the hotel in Birmingham ahead of the
:04:19. > :04:24.conference but you will have a lot of questions to answer tomorrow. But
:04:25. > :04:32.he will want to talk about policies. Indeed! And how the Tories might win
:04:33. > :04:37.the election. In a sense, Mark Reckless's defection is a much more
:04:38. > :04:42.serious blow to David Cameron than losing a minister. The fact that
:04:43. > :04:46.Mark Reckless has a 10,000 majority in Rochester and Strood would
:04:47. > :04:51.suggest he is likely to retain the seat in a by`election for UKIP in
:04:52. > :04:56.the same way that Douglas Carswell willing Clacton, meaning that before
:04:57. > :05:01.the general election, you are looking at UKIP having to elected
:05:02. > :05:06.MPs in the House of Commons. Psychologically that's hugely
:05:07. > :05:13.important because they will be seen as a respectable party. Nigel Farage
:05:14. > :05:20.says he will do whatever it takes to get Mark Reckless elected.
:05:21. > :05:30.Otherwise, he will be like so many defect ease. He has had his moment
:05:31. > :05:36.in the sun. He will disappear. Do people vote for defectors? I don't
:05:37. > :05:41.know. He has got a 10,000 majority but that does not mean he has got a
:05:42. > :05:49.terrific personal following. But I think a lot of the fact that his ``
:05:50. > :05:57.a lot of the stuff that has come out tonight... Up until this evening and
:05:58. > :06:00.last night, Mark Reckless was leaving messages saying, I am
:06:01. > :06:07.looking forward, going to Birmingham. If those things are
:06:08. > :06:11.true, and that is what Tory HQ are putting out, voters in Rochester and
:06:12. > :06:25.Strood might think, that's a bit shifty. He has been plotting this
:06:26. > :06:29.since last year. Rochester and Strood is one of those areas that
:06:30. > :06:35.has flipped between Labour and Tory. It could go UKIP but could equally
:06:36. > :06:41.go Labour. It's important that somebody like Mark Reckless wins the
:06:42. > :06:45.seat, clearly, but Douglas Carswell... There is a personal
:06:46. > :06:50.following there. It looks like he will retain the seat. He may do it
:06:51. > :06:57.with a big majority. What Mark Reckless did is discover... A
:06:58. > :07:01.polling company went into the constituency, asking questions,
:07:02. > :07:07.like, how likely would you be to vote for Mark Reckless if he went to
:07:08. > :07:14.UKIP? Ground is being prepared here. It gives a picture of a very shallow
:07:15. > :07:19.man. At the end of last month, he was talking about the only way to
:07:20. > :07:23.get an independent Britain, talking about the European referendum, was
:07:24. > :07:30.to vote Conservative, so I do agree with you there. But it just seems to
:07:31. > :07:37.me that it is another coup for Nigel Farage. I presume he would have
:07:38. > :07:43.unleashed it yesterday but decided the vote in the House of Commons
:07:44. > :07:50.would have overshadowed it. The Sunday Times also reports on the
:07:51. > :07:54.defection and the scandal as well. Prime Minister rocked by defection
:07:55. > :08:01.and sex scandal. Any new interesting analysis of how it rocks the Prime
:08:02. > :08:08.Minister? They have got Lord Ashcroft's polling data and his
:08:09. > :08:15.survey of more than 8000 voters found 27% of those who voted Tory in
:08:16. > :08:26.2010 had abandoned the party. 73% of those would now back UKIP. UKIP is a
:08:27. > :08:29.very serious threat. David Cameron has got to get his troops geared up
:08:30. > :08:37.for the election, especially in a way that Labour were not able to do
:08:38. > :08:40.this last week, and UKIP represent a huge threat there. The activists
:08:41. > :08:44.will know, the guys will have to go out and leaflets in the rain and so
:08:45. > :08:53.on, they will know that UKIP could do pride of victory. Sticking with
:08:54. > :08:58.the Sunday Times, bombing jihadists says top British general. Something
:08:59. > :09:07.similar was said to me yesterday. Again, question marks over the
:09:08. > :09:12.military campaign. Absolutely. This is Lord Richards saying, with all
:09:13. > :09:17.his experience as an army man a soldier, there is no way out of this
:09:18. > :09:21.without ending up with a ground war and I think that is what everybody
:09:22. > :09:26.is terrified of. You have got to take it seriously. We will look at
:09:27. > :09:38.more papers and stories at 11:30 p.m.. At 11 p.m., more on Mark
:09:39. > :09:46.Reckless, the second Conservative MP to defect to UKIP in a month.