:00:00. > :00:00.Australian appointment in English rugby. In the first of International
:00:00. > :00:00.is for England's cricketers in South Africa. That's in that's in
:00:07. > :00:32.Sportsday in 15 minutes. Here it is the -- here is the Papers.
:00:33. > :00:35.Hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers
:00:36. > :00:38.With me are Emily Ashton, who is chief political correspondent
:00:39. > :00:41.at Buzzfeed, and Dan Bilefsky from the New York Times.
:00:42. > :00:47.We began with the odds of Britain's staying in the EU, Ladbrokes have
:00:48. > :00:52.slashed them today, saying it equates to a 71% chance that we will
:00:53. > :00:58.stay. The Mirror thinks it is a gamble. At this time of unease, when
:00:59. > :01:01.Europe is buffeted by migration crises, economic crises, I think
:01:02. > :01:07.there is a feeling that pragmatic writs might be more apt to maintain
:01:08. > :01:13.the status quo rather than doing something cataclysmic like leaving
:01:14. > :01:19.the EU -- Brits. It could prove to revolution at this point in time.
:01:20. > :01:24.How much will headlines like this in the Sun affect that decision? It is
:01:25. > :01:30.quite a front page, and it is not the only front page to go with the
:01:31. > :01:41.EU. We like that, the Express says you are joking. And honestly, dad 's
:01:42. > :01:47.Army in the news. But yes, the Sun has long campaigned for a kind of
:01:48. > :01:53.cut in immigration, which David Cameron a year or two ago said he
:01:54. > :01:57.was up for. And obviously he made this pledge, didn't he, to get net
:01:58. > :02:01.immigration down to the tens of thousands a year. It has stubbornly
:02:02. > :02:05.remained a lot higher than that now he believes that this deal will get
:02:06. > :02:11.immigration down. What it will do is actually limit benefits for EU
:02:12. > :02:17.migrants. Experts say that that will not cut migration at all. So this is
:02:18. > :02:22.the background. And this is in the great tradition of Sun covers, there
:02:23. > :02:27.have been other moments in Britain's relations with Europe, and
:02:28. > :02:31.the subliminal message of that, the arrows all pointing towards Britain
:02:32. > :02:35.is that we are under an invasion and we just had the former Polish
:02:36. > :02:43.Foreign Minister in here saying what would you do without us? What would
:02:44. > :02:47.you do without the Poles? The Poles are a bit like the Mexicans in the
:02:48. > :02:50.United States, without them, the entire service industry wouldn't
:02:51. > :02:53.exist in this country. What would happen to the service industry? What
:02:54. > :02:57.would happen to nurses? What would happen to drivers? What would happen
:02:58. > :03:02.to the people you see smiling at you every day when you go on your lunch
:03:03. > :03:07.break? How does this play, actually? Since we've got you, I know you have
:03:08. > :03:10.bigger fish to fry with Iowa and New Hampshire, but that this resonate
:03:11. > :03:15.with people in the United States? The issues Britain is pondering
:03:16. > :03:19.over? Again, people are slightly distracted by other things in the
:03:20. > :03:23.United States but it is fair to say that Washington would like Britain
:03:24. > :03:28.in the European Union. There is a perception that if Britain is in the
:03:29. > :03:32.EU, then the EU is a trans- Atlantic partner, at a time when there is
:03:33. > :03:38.migration are people, people want pragmatic writs in the European
:03:39. > :03:42.Union. There is a feeling that they are closer to the United States in
:03:43. > :03:46.terms of attitudes to free markets, geopolitics, the trans- Atlantic
:03:47. > :03:50.relationship -- Brits. So Obama and the United States would like written
:03:51. > :03:58.in the European Union. It is a common theme. We have heard this
:03:59. > :04:01.from the Swedes, the Danes, the Dutch, and if we weren't there then
:04:02. > :04:04.Europe would be the poorer for it. And you can actually see that
:04:05. > :04:07.although there are EU leaders nervous about what David Cameron
:04:08. > :04:12.wants, especially on migration, they all really want written to stay in.
:04:13. > :04:15.Britain is pretty crucial to the future of the European Union.
:04:16. > :04:22.Certainly campaigners have been bending over backwards to make sure
:04:23. > :04:26.that David Cameron stays in and what annoys the leave campaign is that
:04:27. > :04:30.they think David Cameron has wanted to stay from the very beginning. In
:04:31. > :04:35.public he says it is all about what we get from this deal. No one but
:04:36. > :04:38.him believe that. It is happening at a time when there is a simmering
:04:39. > :04:44.backlash against migration all across Europe. You have Denmark
:04:45. > :04:48.passing policies in order to keep migrants away, seizing their
:04:49. > :04:51.valuables. You have Finland introducing Draconian measures. What
:04:52. > :04:55.Cameron is doing resonate quite strongly in many European capitals,
:04:56. > :04:58.which is why I think the head of the European Council has come up with a
:04:59. > :05:04.proposal that he believes other member states will accept. You were
:05:05. > :05:07.saying a little earlier that... It is, you have to say it, a pale
:05:08. > :05:11.imitation of what was promised real four month ago. And that is really
:05:12. > :05:18.summed up by the front page of the Daily Mail. They are calling it the
:05:19. > :05:22.great Delusion. It is not a huge surprise, the Daily Mail front page,
:05:23. > :05:27.the deal does fall short of what David Cameron promised but his
:05:28. > :05:31.pledges on the EU have been watered down over the last couple of years.
:05:32. > :05:35.Let's talk about specifics here. We are talking about a four year ban on
:05:36. > :05:39.in work benefits and now we are talking about a graduated... We are
:05:40. > :05:44.talking about an emergency brake. And when he pulls the break, what
:05:45. > :05:49.are the details? Are there gaps in it? It is a long way short of what
:05:50. > :05:53.he was promising. And even if you go back to... That was in the
:05:54. > :05:56.manifesto, this four year benefits banned. We were talking about how he
:05:57. > :06:01.mentioned cuts to immigration altogether. Angela Merkel a couple
:06:02. > :06:08.of years ago put paid to that. He was also talking about adjusting the
:06:09. > :06:11.agricultural policy and he wanted treaty change this time last year,
:06:12. > :06:18.and obviously this isn't happening at all. I think what is in this
:06:19. > :06:23.compromised deal, if it becomes a deal, it doesn't really matter to
:06:24. > :06:27.the average Briton unless they suffer from insomnia and want to
:06:28. > :06:30.read the fine print. What matters is that the Prime Minister has decided
:06:31. > :06:37.to support the yes camp and made it very clear. I think that makes it a
:06:38. > :06:41.seminal moment. It is a key point, because actually if you didn't want
:06:42. > :06:46.to look through the fine print, best of luck. The legalese in there. How
:06:47. > :06:50.many times would you have to read it? Is there a danger that there is
:06:51. > :06:54.in the right kind of information for people to make an informed decision?
:06:55. > :06:59.And that is exactly what they are banking on. That is why they want an
:07:00. > :07:01.early referendum, to avoid too much scrutiny of this. It is quite
:07:02. > :07:04.cynical in the right kind of information for people to make an
:07:05. > :07:06.informed decision? And that is exactly what they are banking on.
:07:07. > :07:08.That is why they want an early referendum, to avoid too much
:07:09. > :07:11.scrutiny of this. It is quite cynical pretty early so people don't
:07:12. > :07:14.look too far into it. On the point is that the Tories know that...
:07:15. > :07:20.David Cameron knows that and if it changes will actually win over a lot
:07:21. > :07:24.of voters -- benefit changes. We were just saying to the former
:07:25. > :07:28.Polish Foreign Minister that benefits have little to do with it.
:07:29. > :07:33.The minimum wage here is far greater than the minimum wage in Poland.
:07:34. > :07:37.Referendums are often difficult to win, and if you look at the history
:07:38. > :07:42.of the European Union in this country in particular, when Britain
:07:43. > :07:47.voted no and the French voted by a very small margin to the European
:07:48. > :07:52.Constitution, the Irish voted no, and at a time when the economy is
:07:53. > :07:56.not particularly strong, you have a migration crisis, people are feeling
:07:57. > :08:00.insecure, they may raise the middle finger to the European Union is some
:08:01. > :08:05.sort of protest vote. Not to draw too wide an analogy but when you
:08:06. > :08:08.look at what is happening in the US election, people are feeling restive
:08:09. > :08:12.and rebelling against the establishment. One would argue that
:08:13. > :08:19.the climate for no vote has seldom been stronger. The summer months
:08:20. > :08:25.will be crucial. If you were a gambling man, you would have to look
:08:26. > :08:28.at the odds and think, well, is it worth defying the Prime Minister on
:08:29. > :08:36.Europe? Many ministers, especially those key ministers like Torres,
:08:37. > :08:39.Michael Gove, and the business Secretary, who are wondering whether
:08:40. > :08:46.the campaign for the out camp -- Boris. There are many Eurosceptic
:08:47. > :08:50.ministers and we know there are, but they haven't shown their hand apart
:08:51. > :08:58.from Crisp Grayling. -- Chris Grayling. And today, David Cameron
:08:59. > :09:03.was given a bit of a boost by Theresa May, who has said it is a
:09:04. > :09:07.deal worth looking at, all we have the basis of a deal, which is
:09:08. > :09:13.great. That is exactly what David Cameron needed. Go is probably not
:09:14. > :09:19.going to jump either but they know it is a losing side at this point --
:09:20. > :09:22.Gove. I don't know if you are plugged into this but it is no
:09:23. > :09:28.secret that the out camp would very much like a Michael Gove figure or a
:09:29. > :09:32.Boris figure to lead them on. Well, Boris Johnson over many years has
:09:33. > :09:38.been very charismatic. It doesn't surprise me at all. It seems to me
:09:39. > :09:42.that he might go behind the yes side but it seems the no side is somewhat
:09:43. > :09:47.divided and polarised and lacking a big figure to give it some momentum,
:09:48. > :09:51.whereas on the yes vote, you have the Prime Minister, you have
:09:52. > :09:57.captains of industry, it seems the winds are flying more towards the
:09:58. > :10:02.yes side. Is the Guardian says, Cameron wins Theresa May's backing
:10:03. > :10:07.over Europe. She is a known Eurosceptic. It is a great win for
:10:08. > :10:11.him. He will be thrilled with the statement which dropped late today,
:10:12. > :10:15.it is in a lot of the front pages and it really secures his hand.
:10:16. > :10:19.Especially among the Tory grassroots. Many of them are pro-
:10:20. > :10:22.Theresa May. She made a hardline speech to the conference about
:10:23. > :10:26.migration and they won't quite sure which way she would go. And that our
:10:27. > :10:31.political editor were saying a little earlier, there is this rather
:10:32. > :10:35.strange period now, isn't there, over the next two weeks where they
:10:36. > :10:39.sort of know the detail but they are not allowed to speak about it. The
:10:40. > :10:48.likes of risk Grayling, sitting on his hands. They are not allowed to
:10:49. > :10:55.come out and -- come out until the deal is actually done -- Chris
:10:56. > :11:02.Grayling. Let's just turn to the elections in Iowa. The dramatic day
:11:03. > :11:07.yesterday. The shock of the new normal jolts the US election. I
:11:08. > :11:10.think the Guardian is referring to this new politics in the US
:11:11. > :11:16.primaries where people cleave to either the far left, characters like
:11:17. > :11:20.Bernie Sanders, ageing hippies who rail against globalisation or people
:11:21. > :11:26.on the far right like Donald Trump or the winner, Ted Cruz, a very
:11:27. > :11:29.strong, young Conservative evangelical fire and brimstone
:11:30. > :11:32.Conservative. People are fed up with the establishment and these
:11:33. > :11:36.candidates are benefiting as a result. Just talk to me about Bernie
:11:37. > :11:42.Sanders. He is an interesting character. He is known as Democratic
:11:43. > :11:47.Socialist. I thought socialism in America was a word you didn't
:11:48. > :11:50.mention. It is, and that is what is interesting about Bernie Sanders. He
:11:51. > :11:55.is such a left-wing candidate, such a raging hippie that you don't
:11:56. > :11:59.expect to see someone like that in the US landscape. Here's something
:12:00. > :12:07.like Jeremy Corbyn, although he would be far right of Jeremy Corbyn,
:12:08. > :12:09.ironically, in a British context. By railing against globalisation,
:12:10. > :12:15.presenting Hillary Clinton as an establishment candidate, as an
:12:16. > :12:18.example of legacy and dynastic politics. He is resonating with
:12:19. > :12:25.young people. Young people like Bernie Sanders, young people also
:12:26. > :12:28.like Jeremy Corbyn. What is the appeal of these ageing lefties for
:12:29. > :12:33.the younger generation? We have a reporter campaigning for Bernie
:12:34. > :12:37.Sanders who voted for Jeremy Corbyn last summer. There is such a
:12:38. > :12:42.parallel there. What do you make of the Republican side of the race? We
:12:43. > :12:49.talk so much in Britain about Donald Trump, and he goes and losers! I
:12:50. > :12:55.know, only by a little bit, but... One should say that Iowa is a small
:12:56. > :12:59.state and although it is an interesting early snapshot, there
:13:00. > :13:03.are many states to go. For my point of view the surprise winner is Marco
:13:04. > :13:07.Rubio, became a strong third and showed that the Republican
:13:08. > :13:10.establishment can rally behind him. The funding establishment can rally
:13:11. > :13:14.behind him and if we end up with a Marco Rubio Hillary Clinton race,
:13:15. > :13:18.that would be very interesting. They have been trailing up until now, but
:13:19. > :13:22.have shown their viability. Trump has had a setback but is doing very
:13:23. > :13:27.well in the polls going ahead towards New Hampshire. There is a
:13:28. > :13:30.question whether this circus performer act will translate for the
:13:31. > :13:33.electorate. He appeals to angry working-class men and women, and he
:13:34. > :13:37.has tapped brilliantly into this kind of politics of anger at when
:13:38. > :13:41.that goes before the entire electorate, there is a question
:13:42. > :13:46.whether it people will see him as the next president of the United
:13:47. > :13:52.States. You have these big, sweeping freeways in the US. Do you have
:13:53. > :13:55.white lines on? Because The Times Says that in Britain it is the end
:13:56. > :14:01.of the road for white lines on highways. Really? Yes, markings are
:14:02. > :14:06.being erased from busy roads across the country in an attempt to slow
:14:07. > :14:11.motorists down. Apparently blank roads introduced this sense of
:14:12. > :14:16.uncertainty, so... We don't know where we are in the road. Motor
:14:17. > :14:20.astride a bit more cautiously. I went to Lebanon and Jordan recently,
:14:21. > :14:28.to look at the Syrian refugee crisis, and I noticed that they do
:14:29. > :14:36.have lanes, but people don't drive cautiously -- motorists drive a bit
:14:37. > :14:40.more cautiously. A simple pot of paint can save lives, in particular
:14:41. > :14:45.highly visible markings at the edge and centre of the road which can be
:14:46. > :14:48.seen at night are enormously cost-effective, so to get rid of
:14:49. > :14:54.them, surely there will be more deaths on the road? As a cyclist,
:14:55. > :15:03.this sounds quite frightening to me. We will pass on that one. Anxious
:15:04. > :15:07.and unhappy says the Express. They must be middle-aged. If you are aged
:15:08. > :15:13.between 14 and 59 you are struggling to cope with caring for elderly
:15:14. > :15:17.parents and raising a family -- 40 and 59. If we were on that game show
:15:18. > :15:23.where you had to name what is troubling you, mortgages and debt. I
:15:24. > :15:26.can see how we do hear these things in Parliament about women in
:15:27. > :15:30.particular who are trapped between caring for children and for elderly
:15:31. > :15:37.relatives at the same time. So I can see how that bracket is affected. No
:15:38. > :15:42.surprise, Dan, that those aged 65 to 74 are deemed to be the happiest,
:15:43. > :15:45.because they have big pensions. Big pensions, their children are out of
:15:46. > :15:49.the house, they can enjoy their retirements. So I guess that is
:15:50. > :15:55.understandable. There is a problem in this country with people older
:15:56. > :15:59.than that who are alone and suffering without much human
:16:00. > :16:03.contact. Yes, I guess it is just those who have the money who can
:16:04. > :16:07.afford to be happy. But anyway, those of us who are middle-aged will
:16:08. > :16:12.plod on. Thank you very much for joining us this evening.
:16:13. > :16:15.Coming up next, it is time for Sportsday.