04/02/2016

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:00:00. > :00:00.Wembley. And a golfer with a robotic swing who turned up and got a hole

:00:00. > :00:13.in one. That, after the papers. Hello and welcome to our look ahead

:00:14. > :00:16.to what the the papers will be With me are Benedicte Paviot,

:00:17. > :00:19.a correspondent from France 24 and Hugh Muir a columnist

:00:20. > :00:31.for The Guardian. Good evening to you both. Let's have

:00:32. > :00:36.a quick look at some of those newspapers before we have discussion

:00:37. > :00:39.of the Syria crisis taking the lead in the Guardian. Russian air strikes

:00:40. > :00:43.on civilians are pushing tented thousands of people to Turkey and

:00:44. > :00:46.what it calls the new exodus. The Times says the campaign to leave the

:00:47. > :00:52.European Union has surged to a record poll lead of nine point. It

:00:53. > :00:55.says voters have rejected David Cameron's renegotiation. Metro

:00:56. > :01:02.thinks wiki links Julian Assange is in the middle of the legal farce.

:01:03. > :01:07.Child-abuse allegations are the focus in the telegraph's main

:01:08. > :01:10.report. It says the former head of the Army, Lord Bramall, was forced

:01:11. > :01:14.to live under the weight of false allegations for nearly a year

:01:15. > :01:17.because of police failure. The independent accuses top city law

:01:18. > :01:23.firms of running an extortion racket. It says bills of up to ?1100

:01:24. > :01:27.an hour are denying people justice. The Financial Times leads with

:01:28. > :01:30.losses for credit Suisse. It says it is its lowest point in nearly a

:01:31. > :01:34.quarter of a century. The Mirror says the government cuts to social

:01:35. > :01:38.care mean thousands of patients ready to be released from hospital.

:01:39. > :01:45.Stay there because they have nowhere to go. The express also leads with

:01:46. > :01:52.the European Union. Suggesting 92 of people want to leave the European

:01:53. > :02:00.the Times. EU out campaign surges to the Times. EU out campaign surges to

:02:01. > :02:05.record lead. Things seem to be going rather wrong for Mr Cameron? Yes, we

:02:06. > :02:10.don't know the date yet of this referendum. Will it be in June or

:02:11. > :02:13.not? We do know that the campaign to leave the European Union has been

:02:14. > :02:20.handed its biggest lead in this poll. This you got served eight

:02:21. > :02:25.finds that 45% of people will vote to leave the EU compared with 36%

:02:26. > :02:33.who want to remain. The Times are who want to remain. The Times are

:02:34. > :02:38.pointing out while 19% do not know or would not vote, if you exclude

:02:39. > :02:46.the people who don't know, it means 56% want to leave, while 44% want to

:02:47. > :02:49.remain. A 9-point lead for the leave campaign. That is very significant.

:02:50. > :02:56.What's interesting is the biggest lead for the out of ten points was

:02:57. > :02:59.last recorded in January, 2014. It seems the satisfaction of the Prime

:03:00. > :03:07.Minister with the deal he has obtained isn't working. This is

:03:08. > :03:11.before, let's remember, the formal campaign stages. We don't even know

:03:12. > :03:15.if the deal will be agreed by the other EU members that that crunch

:03:16. > :03:19.summit on the 18th and 19th of February. We are in the preamble

:03:20. > :03:23.stage so I do think David Cameron will be very surprised by this. What

:03:24. > :03:29.it does tell you is things are still very much in flux. Even this poll

:03:30. > :03:34.found that the public back the individual measures that were part

:03:35. > :03:38.of the draft agreement that David Cameron came back with. They don't

:03:39. > :03:42.seem to like the package, but they don't mind the individual elements

:03:43. > :03:48.of that package. What I find intriguing about this, it seems to

:03:49. > :03:51.me reading the papers that are allegedly loyal to the

:03:52. > :03:57.Conservatives, are among the most vicious critics of Mr Cameron. That

:03:58. > :04:00.can't be helping his case. It was great extraordinary coverage, the

:04:01. > :04:04.Daily Mail today with who will speak for England yelp of pain and all the

:04:05. > :04:11.other headlines have been very critical. In a way, we don't know

:04:12. > :04:16.when the polling work was done, but if it was impacted upon by that one

:04:17. > :04:20.wouldn't be surprised. But I think the Prime Minister will think there

:04:21. > :04:26.is a long way to go. There are some signs of complacency here. The Times

:04:27. > :04:28.says Lord Rose thinks ultimately there will be a vote to remain

:04:29. > :04:35.inside the EU higher substantial margin. Stuart Rose? Yes, and even

:04:36. > :04:39.if he thinks that I don't know if it is wise to say at this stage.

:04:40. > :04:44.Complacency not wanted on the voyage. The Telegraph, that

:04:45. > :04:56.wonderful newspaper headline with the word here. Tory grassroots fewer

:04:57. > :05:04.real. What is going on? Apart from Eurosceptic fury, who will never be

:05:05. > :05:07.satisfied, always know their position before any campaign. This

:05:08. > :05:14.is a reaction to David Cameron saying yesterday in Parliament the

:05:15. > :05:20.fact that people, that backbench MPs should vote with their hearts. This

:05:21. > :05:29.is particularly meant the Eurosceptic MPs, and not listen to

:05:30. > :05:34.their constituency. It seems there is a real problem of Tory candidates

:05:35. > :05:39.in the mail raw and local elections in May not having people to go out

:05:40. > :05:44.campaign for them. Another problem here. This is over the Europe stance

:05:45. > :05:50.of Mr Cameron and his answering of those questions yesterday. I think

:05:51. > :05:54.it is another parliamentary dilemma. Do you vote for MPs to go to

:05:55. > :05:57.Parliament and use their judgment or vote for them as delegates? I think

:05:58. > :06:02.that was a point he was making. In a way he was clutching defeat from the

:06:03. > :06:10.jaws of victory. He was quite commanding in outlining the details

:06:11. > :06:13.of the deal. We know David Cameron has been in trouble with his

:06:14. > :06:17.constituencies before, quite early in his leadership you try to impose

:06:18. > :06:22.on a list of candidates on different constituencies. He met a lot of

:06:23. > :06:28.resistance. It is not the first time he has upset them. They do not like

:06:29. > :06:31.it. Europe is clearly a divisive issue. I think we can predict it

:06:32. > :06:36.will not just be until the referendum. I do not think it will

:06:37. > :06:41.draw a line under it after all, whatever the result. I think there

:06:42. > :06:46.is a great worry. I was in Paris yesterday and with representatives

:06:47. > :06:50.in real estate and land use, from 25 different countries, there is real

:06:51. > :06:53.concern, you can feel it in the business community, not just in

:06:54. > :06:59.France but across the EU and world, watching very carefully what is

:07:00. > :07:02.happening in the United Kingdom. Especially with the negative from

:07:03. > :07:06.pages and comments, as if written has made its mind up. I think you

:07:07. > :07:12.just need to point out Goldman Sachs in the Daily Telegraph article are

:07:13. > :07:19.warning that the pound could lose a fifth of its value if the UK decides

:07:20. > :07:24.to leave the EU. I think there are a lot of implications and people need

:07:25. > :07:29.to think very carefully. Before they cast their vote. A big investment

:07:30. > :07:34.bank, there are reputation not very high. Economic predictions rarely

:07:35. > :07:39.turn out to be accurate. Yes, who predicted the banking crisis? Many

:07:40. > :07:42.people sailed Mutley all come down to predictions like that from big

:07:43. > :07:45.companies like that, when the focus of the debate becomes about jobs and

:07:46. > :07:53.about employment and about the economy. Upon that the decision will

:07:54. > :07:59.turn. The people who don't know play a big role. The 19 or 20%. That is

:08:00. > :08:03.who the remain on leave party need to convince. How many people will

:08:04. > :08:10.vote? That will be critical. We don't have a lot of time, more time

:08:11. > :08:15.at 11:30pm. Just quickly, the metro, fast as UN backs Julian Assange.

:08:16. > :08:19.Most people will think, United Nations, what do they have to do

:08:20. > :08:24.with Julian Assange banged up in the embassy? An application was made to

:08:25. > :08:30.them to the effect that he had been detained arbitrarily. I don't think

:08:31. > :08:35.the British government thought this application had had much of a

:08:36. > :08:39.prayer. In fact, it is only leaked so far, no confirmation, but it

:08:40. > :08:42.looks as if they are going to support Julian Assange's position,

:08:43. > :08:48.that he has been arbitrarily detained. Hasn't he detained

:08:49. > :08:54.himself? That is the Foreign Office's position, he chose to go

:08:55. > :09:02.into the Ecuadorian Embassy, and that doesn't imply a detention in

:09:03. > :09:07.any way. I think his argument is I was forced into this position, and

:09:08. > :09:12.unfairly so. They seem to have accepted that. But it is not

:09:13. > :09:18.binding. Not legally binding. Indeed not. I don't know if it will do him

:09:19. > :09:23.much good, except in terms of PR. He has been making full use of it. Do

:09:24. > :09:28.you think he will come out of the door to have the cuffs put on

:09:29. > :09:33.Godsmark it has cost ?10 million. The fact of the matter is, the

:09:34. > :09:37.timing of his tweet was rather interesting. The UN official report

:09:38. > :09:44.is due to come out tomorrow. It is not legally binding. It is somewhat

:09:45. > :09:48.of a PR coup, but only minutes before we had about the leak, Julian

:09:49. > :09:53.Assange, from the Ecuadorian empathy were saying, I will come out, if it

:09:54. > :09:57.turns against me, the UN decision... But now he is expecting his passport

:09:58. > :10:01.back and wants to be able to fly to Ecuador. The British government's

:10:02. > :10:06.position is very clear. They are bound with the European Arrest

:10:07. > :10:13.Warrant to detain him, if he comes out of the Ecuadorian Embassy, where

:10:14. > :10:17.he cannot be got at. If he does, then yes, he will be arrested. That

:10:18. > :10:25.is the British position and the Swedes are not backing down.

:10:26. > :10:28.Whatever the Swedish is for that, I don't know! We will have another go

:10:29. > :10:34.at 11:30pm. For the moment, thank you both. We will be back at 11:30pm

:10:35. > :10:37.to look at the stories making tomorrow morning's from pages.

:10:38. > :10:42.Coming up next, time for Sportsday.