:00:00. > :00:15.since early this morning has died despite rescue efforts to save it.
:00:16. > :00:18.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers
:00:19. > :00:28.With me are Benedicte Paviot, a correspondent from France 24
:00:29. > :00:31.and Hugh Muir, a columnist for The Guardian.
:00:32. > :00:33.The Syria crisis is the lead for the Guardian,
:00:34. > :00:36.it says that Russian airstrikes on civilians are pushing tens of
:00:37. > :00:41.thousands of people towards Turkey in what it calls a new exodus.
:00:42. > :00:44.The Times says that the campaign to leave the EU has
:00:45. > :00:48.surged to a record poll lead of nine points; it says voters have rejected
:00:49. > :00:51.The Metro thinks the Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is
:00:52. > :00:54.in the middle of a legal farce, as the Foreign Office rubbishes UN
:00:55. > :00:56.claims that he is being unlawfully detained.
:00:57. > :00:58.Child abuse allegations are the focus
:00:59. > :01:02.It says the former head of the army, Lord Bramall,
:01:03. > :01:05.was forced to live under the weight of false allegations for nearly
:01:06. > :01:11.The Independent accuses top city law firms
:01:12. > :01:20.It says bills of up to ?1100 an hour are denying
:01:21. > :01:24.The Financial Times leads with losses at Credit Suisse,
:01:25. > :01:27.it says shares in the bank have fallen to their lowest point
:01:28. > :01:31.The Mirror says that government cuts to social care mean that thousands
:01:32. > :01:35.of patients ready to be released from hospital are forced to stay
:01:36. > :01:37.there because they have nowhere to go.
:01:38. > :01:39.And the Express also leads with the European Union,
:01:40. > :01:50.the newspaper's online poll suggests 92% of people want to leave the EU.
:01:51. > :02:04.Let us begin. Let's go to the Times, EU campaign surges to record
:02:05. > :02:19.levels. This is very dramatic. It says that the out campaign after the
:02:20. > :02:26.first week as a 9-point lead. 56 to 44. There are many caveats. The
:02:27. > :02:31.first one is that 19% don't know, so there is a lot to play for there.
:02:32. > :02:36.The other thing that strikes one is you look at the number of people who
:02:37. > :02:42.say that they actually support the elements of the deal that David
:02:43. > :02:49.Cameron unveiled this week, and that is 62%, supporting the emergency
:02:50. > :02:52.brake on the number of migrants. So they seem to like bits of the deal
:02:53. > :03:00.but don't particularly like the sound of the package so far. Ther
:03:01. > :03:03.are some dark warnings, from Goldman Sachs and one or two others at
:03:04. > :03:07.investment banks, saying things could go tell a
:03:08. > :03:10.investment banks, saying things could go tell -- terribly wrong for
:03:11. > :03:17.the pound. Some are saying that the pound could lose a fifth of its
:03:18. > :03:23.value is the UK decides to come out of the EU. What is also interesting
:03:24. > :03:27.is that this is the first poll to be conducted after the terms of the
:03:28. > :03:33.draft EU renegotiation will make public, just on Tuesday. What is
:03:34. > :03:36.also interesting is that in this YouGov poll in this article,
:03:37. > :03:48.Rose, who is campaigning... The old Marks Spencer boss. That is true.
:03:49. > :04:02.He claimed that Britain would vote substantial margin, and it would be
:04:03. > :04:09.a huge win. He was immediately criticised,
:04:10. > :04:11.Nigel Farage, he said that he is prediction revealed massive
:04:12. > :04:19.complacency. We are beginning to get polls now, it seems to have shifted
:04:20. > :04:24.to more than out mood. Before we even though the date on which the
:04:25. > :04:29.referendum will take place, and we don't know if it will take place in
:04:30. > :04:34.June, because the February summit will be the crunch decision. Whether
:04:35. > :04:39.it other EU members even agree what is in it. Interesting thing about
:04:40. > :04:44.this poll is that it reminds us that there was a lead of this dimension a
:04:45. > :04:56.couple of years ago, so things have been going the in weight, and now it
:04:57. > :05:02.is going back towards out. I think there needs to be a general health
:05:03. > :05:12.warning on any poll, but I think we will see in every poll it will swing
:05:13. > :05:16.back and forth. I suspect that in will win, whether it is by a
:05:17. > :05:25.significant margin, as Stuart Rose says, we don't know. Put your money
:05:26. > :05:37.there, but don't go and see me if you lose! Apparently 92% wanted quit
:05:38. > :05:42.the EU. You have to read the fine print. It is an online poll of their
:05:43. > :05:52.own readers. It is an exclusive online poll, where 92% voted to
:05:53. > :06:00.leave the EU. The link that the Daily Express is making is to do
:06:01. > :06:05.with the asylum claims. The number of people claiming asylum in Britain
:06:06. > :06:10.rose by almost 50% last summer, has the EU failed to get to grips with
:06:11. > :06:16.the global migration crisis. I think one of the things that is very
:06:17. > :06:20.clearly happening, and where the remain in the EU campaign is not
:06:21. > :06:26.getting a lead on this, is the link between asylum claims and migration
:06:27. > :06:32.is becoming, certainly in the papers, a justification, as if the
:06:33. > :06:35.whole of the EU is about that. There is a huge difference between people
:06:36. > :06:41.who claim asylum and people who succeed in getting asylum. That is
:06:42. > :06:46.why it will be so volatile. All you need is a huge spike in migration,
:06:47. > :06:51.another migration crisis, another wave of migration at the wrong time,
:06:52. > :06:54.and David Cameron may think it is going quite well and then the whole
:06:55. > :06:59.thing could be knocked off course just buy one incident. That is why
:07:00. > :07:02.it will be very volatile. And we can see in the next story that a fresh
:07:03. > :07:12.exodus of people from Syria is expected. Let's go onto that. The
:07:13. > :07:19.amount of money that has been offered up to help refugees, but
:07:20. > :07:22.this story is about Aleppo. This shows why that money is needed, and
:07:23. > :07:27.why so much more is needed. At the same time as the meeting was taking
:07:28. > :07:32.place in London, there are reports of the effects of Russian airstrikes
:07:33. > :07:37.in Aleppo, driving tens of thousands of people towards the Turkish
:07:38. > :07:41.border. Turkey obviously can't cope with that, and what we see in other
:07:42. > :07:45.circumstances where countries have raised money to deal with refugees
:07:46. > :07:48.is that that money hasn't been forthcoming, so whether Turkey will
:07:49. > :07:57.get the help it needs to deal with refugees on that scale is very
:07:58. > :08:00.doubtful. It is an important corrector, because it shows why we
:08:01. > :08:04.need to have these talks. It also shows why the problem needs to be
:08:05. > :08:09.solved at source. We can raise billions of pounds but if people are
:08:10. > :08:16.going to be moving on this scale, then we can't possibly deal with
:08:17. > :08:22.that. We have seen pictures on the size of refugee camps, if you look
:08:23. > :08:27.at some of this it is awful what is happening. Aleppo is just one place.
:08:28. > :08:31.Thousands of people on the move, it seems incredible. That is right,
:08:32. > :08:38.there are real fears of another refugee exodus. 70,000 people are
:08:39. > :08:43.said to be on the move, I mean, this is being called a siege of
:08:44. > :08:51.starvation around Aleppo. I think what is interesting also that is in
:08:52. > :08:54.this article in the Guardian is this warning by the US Secretary of
:08:55. > :08:59.State. As all these pledges were coming in here in London at this
:09:00. > :09:03.conference, John Kerry was calling on the Syrian regime and its allies
:09:04. > :09:08.to hold the bombardment of opposition held areas, saying they "
:09:09. > :09:14.clearly signalled the intention to seek a military solution rather than
:09:15. > :09:20.enable a political one". It is absolutely essential. We have seen
:09:21. > :09:24.those Geneva UN talks fail. What I will be interested in is the speech
:09:25. > :09:28.by the UN Secretary General tomorrow morning in his final year, which is
:09:29. > :09:35.being hailed as a legacy speech, which is organised by Chatham House.
:09:36. > :09:38.It will be interesting to see that in this position some of these
:09:39. > :09:43.leaders are freer to say things in their final year. It is not about
:09:44. > :09:47.money only, as you were saying, but about helping to stop this
:09:48. > :09:53.bombardment. What it is looking like is that Russia is really wanting to
:09:54. > :09:58.help Syria on a military front, and not helping to look for a political
:09:59. > :10:03.solution or resolution. When you see the report in its entirety you will
:10:04. > :10:06.see how the UN will be crucial, because Turkey are angry at the UN,
:10:07. > :10:12.dealing they haven't had the sort of support they should have had. The
:10:13. > :10:16.Turkish government said that just as the UN subsequently felt it had to
:10:17. > :10:20.apologise for failure in Bosnia, it will have to go back to Turkey and
:10:21. > :10:25.apologise for its failure to deal with the Syrian situation. Let's
:10:26. > :10:33.move on to a different sort of angle altogether. The Financial Times, a
:10:34. > :10:42.story about dark ships' unexplained stops in terrorist havens. We are
:10:43. > :10:44.used to having tight security and airports, particularly with the
:10:45. > :10:50.terror threat, and really what the Financial Times has done is look at
:10:51. > :10:55.this from another angle. They are looking at the commercial waters,
:10:56. > :10:59.saying that the Mediterranean is unguarded and there are few ways of
:11:00. > :11:04.tracking ships, dark ships, they say. They are saying there are many
:11:05. > :11:10.movements of them. We don't know if they are people smugglers, drug
:11:11. > :11:16.ships, if bogus shipping logs are being used. It is painting a picture
:11:17. > :11:21.of a very lax security regime on the water. It is mainly because we just
:11:22. > :11:26.haven't really looked at that as being as big a threat as we have
:11:27. > :11:31.with our airports. Again it is a problem of resources. As Europe is
:11:32. > :11:36.really struggling to deal with the migration crisis, its biggest
:11:37. > :11:45.frontier is the sea. 70,000 kilometres, as in this excellent
:11:46. > :11:48.article on page eight of the FT by Sam Jones, and he actually breaks it
:11:49. > :11:56.down. We have always known about ships using flags of convenience,
:11:57. > :12:04.but they give some really... They flesh out the mounting concern for
:12:05. > :12:07.the lack of a comprehensive system. The fact that there was taunting of
:12:08. > :12:14.jihadists, dancing around Europe from Belgium and into France and
:12:15. > :12:21.other countries, there really is concerned. Also, lack of resources,
:12:22. > :12:25.because it is admitted by the maritime authorities that they
:12:26. > :12:31.cannot monitor every ship. When some ships switch off every identifying
:12:32. > :12:43.science and do a U-turn and rendezvous with other boats, this
:12:44. > :12:46.could easily be a terrorist risk. It is unlikely that anyone will be
:12:47. > :12:52.repaired to spend the sort of money it would take to have meaningful
:12:53. > :12:58.security on the sea, because we saw how quickly the spending was reduced
:12:59. > :13:08.on the patrols to find migrant boats. Pretty quickly the money ran
:13:09. > :13:10.out, the... It doesn't make sense to spend all that money, you have to
:13:11. > :13:14.take your shoes and belts off before you go through the airport, and
:13:15. > :13:20.70,000 kilometres of coastline, this makes no sense. We don't even know
:13:21. > :13:24.who is in the UK and who isn't, because they came through the
:13:25. > :13:30.borders yesterday back into the UK and had a chat with those on the
:13:31. > :13:36.French and the British side. It is really easy. Airports are doable,
:13:37. > :13:39.the coast is not, is it? In a sense, what they are saying is that
:13:40. > :13:46.it is an accident waiting to happen. The dog hasn't barked yet. What a
:13:47. > :13:52.perfect cue for our last story! This is the front page of the
:13:53. > :13:56.independent. There is a very large dog on it, and he is apparently
:13:57. > :14:05.yawning. How can you tell if a dog is yawning? Canine boredom epidemic.
:14:06. > :14:13.Have either a few got a dog? I love dogs, I wish I could. It is a wave
:14:14. > :14:16.of canine depression, a boredom epidemic, because the weather has
:14:17. > :14:29.been so dreadful that no one is taking their dogs out for walks. The
:14:30. > :14:31.dogs are going stir crazy, and the Independent has spoken to some
:14:32. > :14:38.experts and come up with some advice. Very briefly. Play games,
:14:39. > :14:46.hide the food and they can look for it, hide toys, stroke them behind
:14:47. > :14:59.the ears, stroke them on the chest. I'm glad we ended on that good
:15:00. > :15:01.story. Thank you both very much. Coming up next, Sportsday.