05/05/2016

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:00:00. > :00:00.Green party thinking that the SNP did not necessarily need their vote.

:00:00. > :00:00.Sarah Smith, thank you, will be coming back to different camps to

:00:00. > :00:11.find out how they are getting on, thank you. Rusher will be coming to

:00:12. > :00:21.different counts to find out how they are getting on, thank you.

:00:22. > :00:29.Welcome to our look at what the papers will be saying tomorrow, with

:00:30. > :00:33.me Iain Beryl and Martin Bentham, the home affairs editor for the

:00:34. > :00:36.Evening Standard. And we will speak to James Miller, Westminster

:00:37. > :00:40.correspondent for the Sunday Post, he joins us from Edinburgh. Good

:00:41. > :00:44.evening. Thank you for joining us. Normally we would look at the front

:00:45. > :00:48.pages but tonight we will go straight in with some of those

:00:49. > :00:53.discussions. Let's start this evening with the Guardian. The story

:00:54. > :00:58.that the doctors, it would seem, are split over the return to the peace

:00:59. > :01:02.talks we have mentioned. Martin. This is the significance story of

:01:03. > :01:08.the day in the health field, that the offer of a five-day balls that

:01:09. > :01:14.was put to Department of Health which initially seemed that it was

:01:15. > :01:19.going to be rejected -- a five-day pause, it looks like it may be

:01:20. > :01:22.accepted with a condition, the BM a committee will have to meet on

:01:23. > :01:27.Saturday to decide whether to go ahead with the talks. The Guardian

:01:28. > :01:32.suggests that they are split about whether to do this. The particular

:01:33. > :01:35.sticking point is this one that the government insists on, Saturday

:01:36. > :01:39.should be a normal working day, and they should not get premium pay.

:01:40. > :01:44.They insist that to be part of these discussions that happen as an

:01:45. > :01:49.attempt to break the deadlock. The junior doctors are apparently,

:01:50. > :01:55.according to this story, split as to whether to go with that or not. It

:01:56. > :02:01.would appear earlier that there was perhaps talk that Jeremy Hunt had

:02:02. > :02:05.changed his mind. He is spinning it well, saying this is an attempt to

:02:06. > :02:09.resolve the problem and if they do this which has been at the centre of

:02:10. > :02:13.some of the controversy, that he has suspended the whole imposition of

:02:14. > :02:17.the contract. He is renowned as a very tough negotiator, one of the

:02:18. > :02:22.toughest in government, probably. This is at least a chance to resolve

:02:23. > :02:25.this strike. The BMA has done very well to keep support going with the

:02:26. > :02:31.public. I was quite surprised by the recent poll showing support for it

:02:32. > :02:36.from the public given that it is a pay dispute dressed as a health

:02:37. > :02:39.issue. James, what are you hearing about the support of a junior

:02:40. > :02:44.doctors, it seems it is remaining steady. Yes although this is cute by

:02:45. > :02:52.Jeremy Hunt. And but like climb-down... It would appear,

:02:53. > :02:55.James, that we have lost it. That is a shame. It is interesting that the

:02:56. > :03:02.support for either side just doesn't seem to have moved much of the last

:03:03. > :03:05.few weeks. It doesn't. There has been some suggestion this might

:03:06. > :03:10.change of the doctors went on an all out strike although they did have

:03:11. > :03:13.that two-day strike which hasn't yet affected their support. Maybe they

:03:14. > :03:17.are conscious of the fact that if they went to the nuclear option of

:03:18. > :03:21.an all out strike that things might change especially if there was some

:03:22. > :03:26.terrible disaster that could be blamed on the consequences of not

:03:27. > :03:30.having full cover and so on. So on one level they might be quite keen,

:03:31. > :03:34.on another there's lots of determination to surrender over what

:03:35. > :03:40.they see as the imposition of unsafe, I agree to an extent it

:03:41. > :03:46.seems to be about pay to a large extent, in particular, I don't think

:03:47. > :03:51.the government will back down unless the Saturday working issue is

:03:52. > :03:55.addressed. This is not the issue they want to fight on. But the

:03:56. > :03:58.problem for the government, the last thing they want is to be embroiled

:03:59. > :04:03.in a major long-running dispute about health. Quite a few

:04:04. > :04:07.concessions and I think there are quite a few more that the doctors

:04:08. > :04:11.want. I suspect the government might give ground on some of them although

:04:12. > :04:16.I don't think they will give ground on this key point. Let me bring back

:04:17. > :04:23.James now we've got him back. We lost you after just a couple of

:04:24. > :04:29.words. Has the Health Secretary been taking an interesting angle on this?

:04:30. > :04:34.Yes, he has insisted that the junior doctors agreed to discuss Saturday

:04:35. > :04:37.working. The junior doctors, which we haven't mentioned yet, talking

:04:38. > :04:41.about this government equality assessment which says the new

:04:42. > :04:47.contract will disadvantage women, especially mothers and single

:04:48. > :04:51.parents. You can't impose a contract which the government 's own

:04:52. > :04:54.assessment says is not fair to women so there is this other issue

:04:55. > :05:01.although support for doctors is strong at the moment, if they refuse

:05:02. > :05:06.to come to the table for any reason that support might waive a bit. They

:05:07. > :05:13.will be a meeting on Saturday which will mark that. Let's stay with the

:05:14. > :05:19.Guardian. It has a story, Assad is being accused of the air strike we

:05:20. > :05:23.heard about this evening on the Syrian refugee camp. Some of the

:05:24. > :05:27.pictures, some have not been verified, yet pretty shocking. They

:05:28. > :05:35.have been horrific, the pictures of the burning tents, what has happened

:05:36. > :05:42.is not clear, it can only be a Russian or Assyrian air strike. It's

:05:43. > :05:46.a refugee camp, clearly there can be no military justification for that

:05:47. > :05:50.type of action. Unfortunately, there have been a few promising signs,

:05:51. > :05:56.with the ceasefire that has taken place in much of Syria that this

:05:57. > :06:03.kind of incident is just a reminder of how big that conflict is. Even

:06:04. > :06:06.after five years of conflict which has disrupted after people in the

:06:07. > :06:11.country 4 million people have left and we are still getting new

:06:12. > :06:14.horrific twists which are shocking. We've had five or six hospitals or

:06:15. > :06:19.clinics attacked last week in Aleppo which makes it clear that Assad and

:06:20. > :06:23.his Russian allies are determined to do anything to win even if that

:06:24. > :06:28.means obliterating the last few doctors and people trying to treat

:06:29. > :06:31.patients. To bomb the camp is one more outrage. Which is the depths to

:06:32. > :06:37.which the regime is going to pulverise the opposition and win at

:06:38. > :06:47.any cost. Briefly, James, other papers in Scotland covering much of

:06:48. > :06:50.this, do they claim Assad is behind the rates? I would love to reply but

:06:51. > :06:55.I haven't seen any of the Scottish papers yet! They must be saving

:06:56. > :07:02.themselves for tomorrow. There's a big story here that will dominate

:07:03. > :07:08.the papers indeed. Now we can go live to Cardiff. Our correspondent

:07:09. > :07:14.James Williams is at the count. It's already started, I am assuming? Yes,

:07:15. > :07:19.absolutely and has, and we are expecting a very different night in

:07:20. > :07:24.Wales to what our friends in Scotland expect. We shared a lot

:07:25. > :07:27.with our Celtic cousins although not modern politics because Wales is

:07:28. > :07:33.still very much Labour country, Labour has been the biggest part in

:07:34. > :07:37.the assembly since devolution, in 1999, they formed the government

:07:38. > :07:43.every time, they've got a 17 year and interrupted record on running

:07:44. > :07:47.the NHS, -- non-interrupted record, and running the economy and because

:07:48. > :07:51.of that record the expect a relatively difficult night night.

:07:52. > :08:03.They currently have 30 of the 60 seats in the SEnedd. If you go back

:08:04. > :08:06.further than knives could be out for the world leader Carwyn Jones. So

:08:07. > :08:13.which of the opposition parties will benefit most from the Labour losses?

:08:14. > :08:18.They could increase the number of seats they have in the Senedd in

:08:19. > :08:22.every election but will they suffer from internal EU referendum strife

:08:23. > :08:26.or could they built on the momentum they built up during the general

:08:27. > :08:32.election last year when they still some seats from Labour in the gala

:08:33. > :08:37.-- when they sneaked some seats from Labour in some areas? Those seats

:08:38. > :08:41.could turn blue tonight. Other seats to watch as Cardiff North, the Vale

:08:42. > :08:47.of Glamorgan, and Wrexham, in north-east Wales. As for Plaid

:08:48. > :08:52.Cymru, they can only look enviously at their sister party, the SNP in

:08:53. > :08:56.Scotland because the Nationalists in Wales are currently in third place

:08:57. > :09:00.and according to the polls and discussions are fired tonight with

:09:01. > :09:05.party officials, their best bet is potentially taking second place just

:09:06. > :09:08.ahead of the Tories. They've called themselves the government in waiting

:09:09. > :09:13.throughout the campaign but that seems fanciful at the present time.

:09:14. > :09:18.Big battles for them, their leader, Leanne Wood, taking on a big Welsh

:09:19. > :09:21.Labour beast, Cabinet Minister Leighton Andrews in the Rhondda. Can

:09:22. > :09:29.she make in droves into the Labour strongholds? And learn the which has

:09:30. > :09:32.been seesawing back between Plaid Cymru and Labour -- levy. As for the

:09:33. > :09:40.Lib Dems, it's all about survival, how many of their five members will

:09:41. > :09:44.be returned? Another story is the presence of the Ukip party for the

:09:45. > :09:51.first time in the Senedd. A dash of purple to the political palate. They

:09:52. > :09:54.are expecting at least five regional seats, potentially up to seven. We

:09:55. > :09:58.expect the hang assembly with Labour the biggest party and Willie have

:09:59. > :10:03.enough seats to go it alone will have to form a coalition? There's

:10:04. > :10:08.been one parliamentary by-election in Wales today for the Ogmore seat

:10:09. > :10:11.which is returned a Labour MP in every single election since 1918 and

:10:12. > :10:18.we're not expecting that to change tonight. James Williams, in Cardiff,

:10:19. > :10:24.thank you. Back to the papers reveal. The Financial Times. An

:10:25. > :10:28.interesting story, Ian, it says that there are these terrible wildfires

:10:29. > :10:33.in Canada, they could increase petrol prices and they are already.

:10:34. > :10:48.The pictures have been very dramatic. We've seen astonishing

:10:49. > :10:50.pictures of the whole city forced to evacuate, 25,000 people airlifted

:10:51. > :10:56.out and they say it is so severe that it will put up oil prices which

:10:57. > :11:02.says something. Oil prices have been creeping up. This would suggest that

:11:03. > :11:10.because of this this could have a significant effect. It could be so.

:11:11. > :11:15.Is suspected to be relatively marginal in the big scheme of

:11:16. > :11:20.things. The story, I suppose ultimately is the human disaster.

:11:21. > :11:23.All those people having to move and not being able to get back to their

:11:24. > :11:28.homes on the fire is raging to this extent. A big test for the new Prime

:11:29. > :11:35.Minister. His first big test domestically. Will come back to

:11:36. > :11:41.James in a moment. The other main Financial Times story says most EU

:11:42. > :11:48.citizens in the UK would not meet work visa rules. This has been done

:11:49. > :11:53.by Oxford University, this research. But the main thrust of the argument,

:11:54. > :11:58.they are tackling certain sectors. They have done their own study. This

:11:59. > :12:03.is a very reputable body, says essentially that three out of four

:12:04. > :12:07.of the people working here would not meet the visa requirements for

:12:08. > :12:13.non-EU workers if Britain left the European Union. However, it's a bit

:12:14. > :12:21.of a scare story. Because it implies -- implies that it will come

:12:22. > :12:25.straight home, it makes it clear that people here will be able to

:12:26. > :12:28.carry on working and there will be a new negotiated settlement which

:12:29. > :12:32.would allow for some toing and froing. It's interesting and a

:12:33. > :12:40.little quirky but I don't think it is the best story they've ever had

:12:41. > :12:50.on this! Martin? I agree. The people who are here will probably be able

:12:51. > :12:55.to stay legally even if the country wants to remove them. In a Brexit

:12:56. > :13:01.scenario I don't think there will be a great desire to object all non-EU

:13:02. > :13:08.citizens, it's a bit fanciful. And all the British coming back from

:13:09. > :13:14.Spain! And of course we can set our own Visa regime and adapted so if we

:13:15. > :13:19.want people here, and if we want to recruit more people to fill those

:13:20. > :13:23.low skilled jobs, we can. James, European migration and the

:13:24. > :13:28.referendum coming up, on people's minds today during the voting. It's

:13:29. > :13:35.quite a story. The key is that we don't know what the rules would be

:13:36. > :13:39.if Britain left the EU. It is not likely that we would suddenly throw

:13:40. > :13:45.out all these people! The nature of the work force is that we will

:13:46. > :13:51.constantly need more people to replace them. And there's no clarity

:13:52. > :13:57.about the way that would work. This is the migration observatory. These

:13:58. > :14:01.are not the usual suspects. Not anti-EU crackpots, very respectable

:14:02. > :14:07.organisation, there is more to this than the others are suggesting. Will

:14:08. > :14:13.agree to disagree. Let's go to Newcastle. We have our

:14:14. > :14:20.correspondent, Richard Moss, at the count. Newcastle might be one of the

:14:21. > :14:23.first to declare. Yes, they are in a race with Sunderland. A rivalry

:14:24. > :14:28.between these two cities and football and whether they can count

:14:29. > :14:33.the votes quickly enough. No real threat to Labour control, yet in a

:14:34. > :14:37.way the north-east symbolises Jeremy Corbyn's big problem as leader

:14:38. > :14:42.because there's nothing left to gain. Take South Tyneside. Labour

:14:43. > :14:47.hold 52 of the 54 seats in the council, not much left for them to

:14:48. > :14:51.win, they to be shot at, challenges for the parties, the Lib Dems used

:14:52. > :14:55.to run the council, there be looking to stop the haemorrhaging of seats

:14:56. > :14:58.in the region in the last couple of years, the damage done by the

:14:59. > :15:02.coalition is, for the Tories they've got ambitions in Carlisle to remove

:15:03. > :15:06.the Labour control of the council. And here they have limited

:15:07. > :15:11.ambitions, they want to win a seat. They haven't had a seat on Newcastle

:15:12. > :15:15.City Council for 20 years. They are desperate to get one back. The Ukip

:15:16. > :15:20.target is Hartlepool because they believe they can get good results

:15:21. > :15:23.there. They've got two or three targeted seats. There's not much to

:15:24. > :15:29.gain full Labour and there's plenty to lose. Thank you, we will wait to

:15:30. > :15:35.teach as the first count comes in. Thank you for that. Sadly that is it

:15:36. > :15:39.for The Papers. We'll be back at 11th and EPM. Thanks to Ian and

:15:40. > :15:43.Martin and to James in Edinburgh. Coming about it 11 o'clock we'll

:15:44. > :15:46.have more about the elections as the counting gets under way. First, the

:15:47. > :16:01.weather with Nick Miller. The much advertised warm at this

:16:02. > :16:02.under way as temperatures in