:00:14. > :00:15.Hello and welcome to our Sunday morning edition of The Papers.
:00:16. > :00:18.With me are the economist Ruth Lea and Peter Kellner,
:00:19. > :00:21.former President of pollsters YouGov.
:00:22. > :00:25.The Sunday Times leads with accusations from Vote Leave
:00:26. > :00:28.leaders that David Cameron has lost public trust over his failure
:00:29. > :00:34.The Sunday Telegraph also goes with the EU referendum with claims
:00:35. > :00:36.from eurosceptic ministers that the Prime Minister
:00:37. > :00:41.is unconcerned with the impact of immigration on working families.
:00:42. > :00:44.But an Observer poll suggests a boost for the Remain campaign
:00:45. > :00:47.as experts warn that the economy will be harmed if Britain votes
:00:48. > :00:53.And on the front page of the Express, a new protein jab
:00:54. > :01:09.Let's begin. It's all Brexit, exit, Leave, Remain. Let's begin with
:01:10. > :01:13.Boris and Michael Gove lash Cameron on immigration. They accuse the
:01:14. > :01:17.promised off corroding public trust, that is a tough statement about your
:01:18. > :01:21.boss. This is all about Brexit but it's full so about the parallel
:01:22. > :01:27.story of the wars within the Conservative Party. You could almost
:01:28. > :01:31.hint that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are looking for some leadership
:01:32. > :01:36.challenge after the Brexit referendum result, whatever it is. I
:01:37. > :01:39.think it's true that when Cameron came up with this promised to
:01:40. > :01:44.restrict immigration to tens of thousands, it was something he
:01:45. > :01:49.couldn't possibly deliver given what was happening in the EU with
:01:50. > :01:53.migration. In a way he made a pledge that he couldn't deliver. The
:01:54. > :01:58.figures we saw last week suggested that net immigration was 330,000, so
:01:59. > :02:02.much for the tens of thousands of immigrants. This is one of the very
:02:03. > :02:09.strong cards played by those who want us to leave the EU. Polling
:02:10. > :02:12.suggests one of the things we really dislike about politicians is when
:02:13. > :02:15.they promise much more than they deliver, and that was an
:02:16. > :02:23.unachievable promise. It that the Luke Wright. At YouGov we did polls
:02:24. > :02:26.on that a lot and what it shows is that nobody is trusted on
:02:27. > :02:30.immigration. Labour isn't trusted but neither are the Conservatives.
:02:31. > :02:36.One of the reasons for the rise of Ukip is the distrust of politicians.
:02:37. > :02:40.I wonder whether Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are overstating the
:02:41. > :02:43.case when they say the promise of reduced immigration is plainly not
:02:44. > :02:48.achievable as long as the UK is a member of the EU. In the mail on
:02:49. > :02:54.Sunday an interesting piece by Ian Birrell. He is no EU enthusiasts.
:02:55. > :02:56.He's a deep sceptic but he's been to Norway, cited as one of the
:02:57. > :03:05.countries that Britain should copy. He says that immigration to Norway
:03:06. > :03:10.outside the EU is much higher than ours. That is true incidentally of
:03:11. > :03:18.all the countries cited like Canada, Switzerland, Australia. Or America.
:03:19. > :03:21.They have twice as high immigration relative to population. When you
:03:22. > :03:25.look at what Ian Birrell says, this is about immigration shows the
:03:26. > :03:30.absurdity of claims by the Brexit campaign is that leaving the EU. The
:03:31. > :03:35.flow of migrants. Yes, David Cameron has a credibility problem but I'm
:03:36. > :03:40.not sure Michael Gove... That's true but Norway is in the single market
:03:41. > :03:44.and it has freedom of movement of labour so it is in a similar
:03:45. > :03:48.situation. Would have to be out of the single market as well as out of
:03:49. > :03:54.the EU. Canada and Australia have their own rules, twice as high
:03:55. > :03:58.immigration. Switzerland also has a bilateral and on the freedom of
:03:59. > :04:02.movement and immigration as well. I half agree with you but not the lead
:04:03. > :04:06.in the sense that if we were to leave the European Union, and not
:04:07. > :04:11.have freedom of labour, at least there would be some hope of
:04:12. > :04:15.restricting EU immigration, if not non-EU immigration. There would be
:04:16. > :04:26.more control. Whether they would get it down to tens of thousands I'm
:04:27. > :04:30.very much doubt. Bail saying that they are not worried about high
:04:31. > :04:34.immigration but what Tim Montgomery said is they would rather have fewer
:04:35. > :04:38.people from Romania and more technicians from India, doctors from
:04:39. > :04:41.Australia. It's not as if within the Brexit camp there is a single view
:04:42. > :04:46.about what should happen to immigration. There would be more
:04:47. > :04:51.control over it you migrants, that's the point. Picking up from what you
:04:52. > :04:54.just said, there would be a non-discriminatory policy you would
:04:55. > :05:00.have between EU and non-EU immigrants which I'm in favour of.
:05:01. > :05:14.The Observer has got massive boost the PM as over 600 colonists reject
:05:15. > :05:18.Brexit. -- 600 economists. I didn't participate in these surveys as it
:05:19. > :05:24.was the royalty canonic society but I would have said, I'm in the 12%
:05:25. > :05:31.that would have said no to this. This looks like groupthink. We
:05:32. > :05:35.remember the 364 economists that condemned the budget in nearly
:05:36. > :05:41.1980s. It was always a joke at the time, misses that you said,.
:05:42. > :05:52.Economists who think it was terrific. She said, thank goodness I
:05:53. > :05:55.wasn't asked for a third. As it happened the budget was the right
:05:56. > :05:59.thing to do at the time and I remember when we were thrown out of
:06:00. > :06:05.the ERM groupthink said this would be a disaster, and a few of us said
:06:06. > :06:12.this is great. Again, groupthink over the euro. They said we must
:06:13. > :06:15.join the year road, we're going to lose all this trade. A few of us
:06:16. > :06:25.said this was nonsense and we were right. Pat Lam. -- hang-up on.
:06:26. > :06:30.Entering the exchange-rate mechanism in 1990 and then joining the year
:06:31. > :06:35.road, there was a large group of people including myself who said
:06:36. > :06:40.these are an wise things. I think it's rewriting history to say it was
:06:41. > :06:44.a tiny minority. After Black Wednesday a range of people said
:06:45. > :06:49.with lower sterling growth will take. I don't think it's quite as
:06:50. > :06:53.complete a groupthink as you are saying. I still think it was
:06:54. > :06:58.groupthink. Ira member it clearly because I was in the bank at the
:06:59. > :07:01.time. When we were thrown out of the ERM there was no doubt that there
:07:02. > :07:07.were a vast majority of people who thought this would be a disaster
:07:08. > :07:13.including people like the CBI. Can I link this to immigration. Oddly
:07:14. > :07:17.enough, paradoxically, the one thing that would reduce immigration
:07:18. > :07:23.sharply and quickly is if we voted for Brexit and the Remain Campaign
:07:24. > :07:26.were right. If the economy goes into slump, there went been the jobs that
:07:27. > :07:33.will attract people to come here. If the Brexit campaigners are right and
:07:34. > :07:37.the economy takes off, we will need all these extra immigrants to fill
:07:38. > :07:43.the jobs that become available. That is somewhat tendentious. There is
:07:44. > :07:49.another argument which is that the benefits of otherwise of immigration
:07:50. > :07:54.and who comes in. Robert Samuelson, his economist joke was that the
:07:55. > :07:57.trouble with economists is we've predicted five of the last two
:07:58. > :08:02.recessions. Whether people sitting at home think this is any better
:08:03. > :08:05.than astrology I'm not quite sure. It's the old joke that economic
:08:06. > :08:14.forecasting is there to make astrology look good. You raised it
:08:15. > :08:18.that part of this is about the entire future of the country, part
:08:19. > :08:25.of it is about the future of the Conservative Party. The mail on
:08:26. > :08:32.Sunday has John Major savaging boorish Brexit. It's very
:08:33. > :08:37.unpleasant. It is very unpleasant and both sides of the campaign have
:08:38. > :08:42.come out with very few accolades. I was looking at the Treasury Select
:08:43. > :08:46.Committee report that came out on Friday, they condemned both sides.
:08:47. > :08:51.It was critical of both sides. I think on both sides there's been a
:08:52. > :08:54.enormous distortion of the facts. I think they believe have distorted
:08:55. > :08:59.how much money we send to the European Union and the remains I'd
:09:00. > :09:04.have distorted the economic impact. I think Ruth is underselling
:09:05. > :09:09.herself. Ruth used to be part of the Vote Leave campaign and you pulled
:09:10. > :09:13.out because of the way it was campaigning and twisting economic
:09:14. > :09:19.numbers which you disapproved of. I wish not told you that! LAUGHTER
:09:20. > :09:28.Very interesting. Would you like to add to that? I think will change the
:09:29. > :09:32.subject. I thought the really weird story of the day about this is the
:09:33. > :09:40.Sunday Telegraph, Cameron is too rich to care about migration. A
:09:41. > :09:44.pinny veld attack on Remain leaders, Priti Patel talking about David
:09:45. > :09:47.Cameron and George Osborne saying they are too rich to care about
:09:48. > :09:57.migration. Has she not met Boris Johnson? She thinks she can say it
:09:58. > :10:02.because of her background which is very interesting. This again is
:10:03. > :10:05.really about the Tory party. More and more wars within the Tory party,
:10:06. > :10:12.its positioning as to what will happen after the referendum. I saw
:10:13. > :10:16.the BBC website this morning suggesting there would be some
:10:17. > :10:21.challenge to Cameron's position even if he won. I see this as another
:10:22. > :10:27.Tory was story. It comes down to what Reid said about Priti Patel's
:10:28. > :10:32.background. Her family were Ugandan Asians who were thrown out by Eddie
:10:33. > :10:35.Armin. The Conservative Prime Minister took on the right of his
:10:36. > :10:43.own party by saying as a matter of moral principle, we need to allow
:10:44. > :10:46.these people to come to Britain. That is what allowed Priti Patel's
:10:47. > :10:52.family to come to Britain. The other thing I find slightly odd about what
:10:53. > :11:00.she said is that these rich people, then narrow self-interest failed to
:11:01. > :11:03.pay due regard to the wider public. She is a minister in work and
:11:04. > :11:09.pensions, this is a department involved in cutting housing benefit,
:11:10. > :11:12.the bedroom tax, changes to tax credits, toughening up rules on
:11:13. > :11:17.disabled people. I think it's slightly risky for a minister in
:11:18. > :11:21.that department to talk about the wider interest, given their record.
:11:22. > :11:28.She's not particularly associated with those policies. She's a member
:11:29. > :11:32.of the department. She personally is particularly associated. If she
:11:33. > :11:40.comes out now and says those policies are wrong, fairness. This
:11:41. > :11:48.is the Sunday Telegraph, Nato generals saying an invader is vital.
:11:49. > :11:54.Let's move on. -- in vote. I like the Telegraph story, books are now
:11:55. > :12:03.status symbols. This is from the jefe stubble, Sean Hamilton has said
:12:04. > :12:06.that books have become a way of displaying their taste of friends
:12:07. > :12:10.when they would actually read the digital version. You can't show
:12:11. > :12:14.what's on your iPad but you put the books on your shelf and you buy
:12:15. > :12:23.them. What did you make of this? I think it has always been the case.
:12:24. > :12:28.People buy books to say, look at me. Let's be honest about this. I've
:12:29. > :12:34.always done it. LAUGHTER At least your honest! The number of American
:12:35. > :12:37.politicians are used into view in their offices, they had all these
:12:38. > :12:43.beautiful leather bound books which were bought by the yard and stuck in
:12:44. > :12:55.and never opened. 20 of 35 years ago I bought Stephen Hawkins A Brief
:12:56. > :13:01.History of time. I bet there are many people around Britain who have
:13:02. > :13:09.unread copies. I got to page five. That's better than me! LAUGHTER One
:13:10. > :13:11.of the other stories which is a rather sad story whatever happened,
:13:12. > :13:18.we don't quite know the facts but the daily Mirror and the sun have
:13:19. > :13:22.got it. Johnny Depp says, she just wants my millions. Actress wife says
:13:23. > :13:27.she feared for her life. This is the story of the break-up of Johnny Depp
:13:28. > :13:31.and his wife Amber. He is one of the best-known, highest-paid actors in
:13:32. > :13:37.the world. It's a rather sad story. Yes. It's sad, unimportant,
:13:38. > :13:46.irrelevant and absolutely fascinating. Welcome to the world of
:13:47. > :13:58.newspapers! The daily Mirror has got his wife's version alleging that he
:13:59. > :14:02.was high and drunk. The Sun has got his version accusing his wife of
:14:03. > :14:08.having bisexual relations. I have no idea of the truth of any of these
:14:09. > :14:13.allegations. But if this goes to court, and is thrashed out in
:14:14. > :14:18.public, it's a bit like OJ Simpson. The drama on the BBC a few weeks
:14:19. > :14:23.ago. This is going to be like that if it goes to court. I think I hope
:14:24. > :14:28.it doesn't because I think it's a bit unseemly. But we are all going
:14:29. > :14:34.to watch it. It's the sort of story some others tut-tut about but we
:14:35. > :14:41.read because it's an interesting human drama that we think we know.
:14:42. > :14:45.All I remember about Johnny Depp of course is the various acting roles.
:14:46. > :14:50.The other thing one remembers is the apology by him and his wife about
:14:51. > :14:54.the dogs they had in Australia. It was bizarre. When people say he was
:14:55. > :14:59.off his head on drugs and Ring, they both looked but they were off their
:15:00. > :15:03.heads. It was extraordinary. I think the Australians were fed up they
:15:04. > :15:08.brought these dogs into the country. One Australian said something fairly
:15:09. > :15:13.brutal as to where they could go. It really wasn't good enough. It was
:15:14. > :15:19.very strange because when you saw that apology it was almost like
:15:20. > :15:25.satire. As you agree, I'm told he got $95 million for one movie
:15:26. > :15:29.appearance, that must make you a completely different person from the
:15:30. > :15:32.rest of humanity, which is perhaps some of the reasons why we are
:15:33. > :15:38.fascinated by this. It's a bit like footballers. At the age of 20 they
:15:39. > :15:42.earn millions and millions. Perhaps the astonishing thing is how few of
:15:43. > :15:46.them go off the rails because the good football managers look after
:15:47. > :15:50.them and protect them. If you get this sudden amounts of money, some
:15:51. > :15:57.of them are going to do strange things. Finally, the Sunday Times,
:15:58. > :16:04.plastic fivers end is of dirty money. We've got plastic banknotes.
:16:05. > :16:12.I liked dirty money. LAUGHTER Some of us like any old money! I'd not be
:16:13. > :16:17.able to go off the rails with ?14 million. In Australia and New
:16:18. > :16:20.Zealand they've had plastic money for years. It's much better, it's
:16:21. > :16:27.cleaner, nicer, more enduring. Bring it on. This was one of Mervyn King's
:16:28. > :16:33.last projects at the Bank of England, to prepare the grounds. Now
:16:34. > :16:39.it's coming in. I think it's a really good idea. It means that
:16:40. > :16:42.those of us who forget the odd fibre in a jeans pocket and stick it in
:16:43. > :16:48.the washing machine will not have to pull out the bits and pieces. This
:16:49. > :16:54.will survive a 95 degrees washing cycle. That's what I really wanted
:16:55. > :16:59.to know on a Sunday morning. They are harder to forge. There are more
:17:00. > :17:03.security measures built into them. Can we not for once say progress is
:17:04. > :17:07.good, tradition is not always right? Sometimes. Let's agree. Progress is
:17:08. > :17:10.good. I shall make a note. That's it for The Papers.
:17:11. > :17:13.Thanks to Ruth and Peter. Just a reminder we take a look
:17:14. > :17:17.at tomorrows front pages every