:00:15. > :00:17.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be
:00:18. > :00:20.With me are Helen Joyce, the International Editor
:00:21. > :00:23.at the Economist and Craig Woodhouse, The Chief political
:00:24. > :00:31.Tomorrow's front pages, starting with The Financial Times,
:00:32. > :00:34.which is leading with investor uncertainty over a possible Brexit
:00:35. > :00:36.along with signs that the US Federal Reserve might hold off
:00:37. > :00:39.raising rates until after the EU referendum.
:00:40. > :00:43.The Metro has more on the arrest of a French national in Ukraine,
:00:44. > :00:45.suspected of plotting a large scale terrorist attack at the Euro
:00:46. > :00:53.The front page of the I features pro-Europe MPs who may try to use
:00:54. > :00:56.the House of Commons to keep Britain in the single market,
:00:57. > :01:01.even if the Leave campaign is successful.
:01:02. > :01:03.The Telegraph's top story is a warning from the justice
:01:04. > :01:06.minister, who says criminals from Europe have been able to stay
:01:07. > :01:10.in the UK because they've used EU rules to avoid deportation.
:01:11. > :01:13.It's one of several papers to show the former Chelsea first team doctor
:01:14. > :01:17.Eva Carneiro arriving at her employment tribunal.
:01:18. > :01:21.The Express leads with what it says is a boost for the Leave campaign,
:01:22. > :01:23.it says some bookmakers have shortened the odds of Britain
:01:24. > :01:31.The Guardian's main headline is the expectation that Tony Blair
:01:32. > :01:33.will defend his decision to join the invasion of Iraq
:01:34. > :01:35.ahead of the publication of the Chilcot inquiry report.
:01:36. > :01:38.The Times has more on the possibility that pro-Europe
:01:39. > :01:48.MPs could defy a Brexit poll victory.
:01:49. > :01:51.And the Daily Mail has the story of a drug which has been
:01:52. > :01:53.fast-tracked in the US to help combat breast cancer,
:01:54. > :01:57.but has been held back in the UK, the Mail blames what it says
:01:58. > :02:22.The Metro, Euro 2016 Terror plot smashed. A Frenchman stopped on the
:02:23. > :02:29.border between Ukraine and Poland. Apparently a far right sympathiser
:02:30. > :02:38.who had dodgy intense -- terror? You would think so, with this amount of
:02:39. > :02:45.TNT. All credit to those who manage to foil their support. Not the
:02:46. > :02:51.threat that is top of your mind, these far right groups. Security
:02:52. > :03:00.people have said that terrorists are all finding out things from their --
:03:01. > :03:05.each other. Getting the weapons is an issue, this is why it was this
:03:06. > :03:08.particular border. I think that Ukraine would be a good place to be
:03:09. > :03:18.doing shopping for those dodgy goods. Yes, you say that far right
:03:19. > :03:21.terrorists are not at the top of everybody's list of those who might
:03:22. > :03:26.be wanting to interrupt this tournament, but the French officials
:03:27. > :03:30.are saying he may just be wanted on charges of arms smuggling, and not
:03:31. > :03:37.actually on any plot is connected to Euro 2016? Yes, it is worrying for
:03:38. > :03:44.any football fans going over for the tournament. Whether or not he was
:03:45. > :03:49.planning to do it himself or help someone else, it is amazing how
:03:50. > :03:56.quickly our perceptions on terror threats can change. I wonder what it
:03:57. > :04:02.has put in the minds of fans that were planning to go over there.
:04:03. > :04:10.Everyone wants the tournament to go on, but there will be some
:04:11. > :04:19.nervousness in Paris now. Indeed. The EU referendum, I know you want
:04:20. > :04:30.it! I don't know what I'm going to do in 17 days when it's all gone
:04:31. > :04:33.away! The Times, the remaining's strategy on Brexit will be to
:04:34. > :04:40.somehow keep us in the single market. Is that possible? The short
:04:41. > :04:55.answer is, bubbly not, but that won't stop them from training. There
:04:56. > :05:03.are only about a MPs who are against it -- 140 MPs. How can we get the
:05:04. > :05:09.best version of a Brexit for ourselves? They have said that they
:05:10. > :05:14.will try and vote in the House of Commons to keep the UK in the single
:05:15. > :05:20.market. That would be a tariff free trading zone. This is bad from a
:05:21. > :05:23.Brexit point of view, because that would have the free movement of
:05:24. > :05:28.people, which is something we want to get rid of. Personally, I think
:05:29. > :05:35.they would get sorted out the ballot box if they tried to do this. To try
:05:36. > :05:42.this would be crazy. But isn't this... The remaining brigade, isn't
:05:43. > :05:49.this them shooting themselves in the foot potentially? One of British
:05:50. > :05:52.people's biggest concerns is the British economy and leaving the
:05:53. > :05:58.single market. If we could leave the EU and still be part of the single
:05:59. > :06:05.market, wouldn't they think it was a good idea? I think that people think
:06:06. > :06:10.they can do that anyway, they just don't want to. You couldn't be doing
:06:11. > :06:17.this every day, getting up and making these arguments. They do have
:06:18. > :06:24.a point in that, what we are being offered on the exit side is the most
:06:25. > :06:31.fluid thing imaginable. Will it be from Norway, Switzerland, Albania?
:06:32. > :06:38.You could say, here is a model for what might happen if we had a Brexit
:06:39. > :06:51.and we could make it happen. At a Brexit is about leaving the single
:06:52. > :06:56.market, isn't it? Well... They would say, we couldn't work of the
:06:57. > :07:03.Norwegian or the Albanian or Swedish model, we are working from the
:07:04. > :07:10.British model. It would involve negotiating without being in the
:07:11. > :07:16.room with the European powers. But we will have to see how we negotiate
:07:17. > :07:27.ourselves in 18 days time. I can see that you are excited already! Janet
:07:28. > :07:32.Yellen apparently voted the third most important person on the planet.
:07:33. > :07:37.She has signalled that the reserve will sit tight on whether or not to
:07:38. > :07:46.raise interest rates until the referendum vote? All markets hate
:07:47. > :07:50.uncertainty more than anything else. Well, some of them love it, because
:07:51. > :08:00.it could be your chance to make a fast buck. But in general, nobody
:08:01. > :08:04.wants to set policy when things are going in different directions every
:08:05. > :08:11.day. We don't know how much reliance we should put on the polls. You
:08:12. > :08:18.don't know whether you should make a decision today and keep them moving
:08:19. > :08:23.parts stationary. The referendum debate is dominating everything in
:08:24. > :08:27.the UK. This whole discussion has much more to do with the abysmal
:08:28. > :08:39.jobs figures that came out the other day. I think that the moving parts
:08:40. > :08:47.argument does the -- does make sense. There are two movements to
:08:48. > :08:54.any currency movement, the larger ones and the minute movements that
:08:55. > :09:01.clever people are able to make --2 elements. This does seem to be the
:09:02. > :09:07.consensus opinion that the economy will go down. The art there is a lot
:09:08. > :09:11.of daily News, different polls. People trading will react fast and
:09:12. > :09:18.we see these enormous spikes and volatility. I don't know what an
:09:19. > :09:27.average Brit is, but your average voter, would they see this story
:09:28. > :09:32.about interest rates and wonder, is this something to worry about? Are
:09:33. > :09:36.they taking it in? I don't think so. A lot of people resent having to
:09:37. > :09:39.make this choice. It is not something they were thinking about.
:09:40. > :09:44.Now they are being forced to think about it. In many cases, they don't
:09:45. > :09:51.know what to think about. That is not to try and belittle anyone, but
:09:52. > :09:57.this is not high in the concerns of most voters. We don't do referendum
:09:58. > :10:08.is very often heal. It came out of nowhere in terms of coming to the
:10:09. > :10:13.ordinary person. -- here. It is not a simple decision. The way you are
:10:14. > :10:18.likely to vote depends enormously on what job you do in all sorts of
:10:19. > :10:21.different things. I think to a certain extent MPs are in an awful
:10:22. > :10:28.position. They are under pressure to declare which way they are going to
:10:29. > :10:32.vote, but if you are speaking to a fisherman in your constituency, the
:10:33. > :10:37.advice he would give them in this referendum would be completely
:10:38. > :10:41.different to, say, and exporting business. The equation is not the
:10:42. > :10:45.same for everybody. What of the things that happens as we approach a
:10:46. > :10:54.general election, the polls didn't do great last year, but they weren't
:10:55. > :10:59.wildly out... We don't have a context for these polls, this one we
:11:00. > :11:05.don't know what the turnout will be. People haven't registered or
:11:06. > :11:10.decided. We were saying this, people don't generally say, I don't know
:11:11. > :11:15.who I am going to vote for. But all the time in this referendum, people
:11:16. > :11:25.say that. Explain why this referendum is happening now. Explain
:11:26. > :11:38.it. David Cameron promised it to keep a lid on his backbench Tories.
:11:39. > :11:52.So it's about a Tory argument. European killers and rapists can't
:11:53. > :11:57.be deported? This is a dossier, the justice minister is presenting this
:11:58. > :12:03.tomorrow. He is in the 20 worst criminals who are still in Britain.
:12:04. > :12:06.You cannot get rid of them. It is quite complicated and relates to how
:12:07. > :12:14.long they have been in this country and the level of crime against them.
:12:15. > :12:20.If they have been here for a long time, you... It includes a guy who
:12:21. > :12:26.stabbed a head teacher to death. Most people would remember that.
:12:27. > :12:31.There is an attempt from the wrecks campaign to fight back at this idea
:12:32. > :12:40.that staying in the EU would make borders safe. We have some unsavoury
:12:41. > :12:47.characters clogging up our jails and on our streets. But there is the
:12:48. > :12:55.European Arrest Warrant, which speeds up the deportation of
:12:56. > :13:01.criminals. Also, you have the... I'd completely forgotten my train of
:13:02. > :13:06.thought. You also have the fact that, as one exception to free
:13:07. > :13:14.movement of people, you can stop people at the border. Is an example
:13:15. > :13:20.of how difficult this decision is. You wonder how many rapists there
:13:21. > :13:24.are in the country, are we getting rid of our own rapists? You have to
:13:25. > :13:32.weigh that up against currency movements and trade... There's very
:13:33. > :13:40.painful. I don't think people appreciate it. Other newspapers
:13:41. > :13:54.doing a good enough job of explaining this -- are the
:13:55. > :14:00.newspapers? People are still saying, I haven't got any facts. People say
:14:01. > :14:04.they want facts, but there actually many facts because we are talking
:14:05. > :14:15.about the future. It is two different versions of the future. It
:14:16. > :14:23.is a very complicated decision. People want facts but there aren't
:14:24. > :14:32.any. Last year we kicked out about 4500 European criminals. Each side
:14:33. > :14:38.says, we got these out! The other side says, we let them in in the
:14:39. > :14:46.first place. They want certainty that doesn't exist. They want to be
:14:47. > :14:49.pointed in the right direction. Everything is pointing in a
:14:50. > :15:31.different direction, it is really about feelings.
:15:32. > :15:34.The middle classes to short of cash to pay they ?500...?
:15:35. > :15:37.Three things that break down suddenly, including
:15:38. > :15:40.It is to think someone can't replace these things
:15:41. > :15:43.if they are middle class without going into debt borrowing.
:15:44. > :15:45.It just shows you the result of several
:15:46. > :15:48.years of wage stagnation and people may be having using money
:15:49. > :15:50.for the last six or eight years during
:15:51. > :15:52.difficult times when they have put something by.
:15:53. > :15:53.Using whatever savings they might have had.
:15:54. > :15:57.It is a real bread and butter issue. It shows the indebtedness. Household
:15:58. > :15:59.debt is spiralling to ludicrous levels. People haven't learnt their
:16:00. > :16:02.lessons. He will borrowing too much on credit cards and credit to pay
:16:03. > :16:05.for other things. You are really struggling to make ends meet. It is
:16:06. > :16:07.as much of a headache for the Bank of England as the rest of it.
:16:08. > :16:10.Defining the middle class by people doing pretty nice jobs. That is
:16:11. > :16:14.quite impressive. OK, just briefly, vegetable was a hot potato for the
:16:15. > :16:19.BBC. That is vegetable... Riveting. I did not know these words were in
:16:20. > :16:29.play in the 1920s. Apparently, you could say she as in skiing. This is
:16:30. > :16:36.what the Norwegian say. That is silly! These were news to me. I did
:16:37. > :16:41.not know Koeman was a possibility. So, vegetable. Nobody says
:16:42. > :16:54.vegetable. It is like saying Wednesday. Bonkers. Thank you so
:16:55. > :17:00.much. Stay with us. Much more on BBC News. You can read a detailed review
:17:01. > :17:06.of all the papers seven days a week on BBC's website. You can see us
:17:07. > :17:10.with each night's edition of the papers hosted on the page shortly
:17:11. > :17:21.after we have finished. Many thanks to my guests. Goodbye.
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