:00:15. > :00:17.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be
:00:18. > :00:20.With me are Jo Phillips, the political commentator,
:00:21. > :00:22.and Nigel Nelson, the political editor of
:00:23. > :00:34.The Guardian leads with a stem cell therapy which apparently halts
:00:35. > :00:36.and reverses some of the symptoms of people worst affected
:00:37. > :00:43.That story is also in the Daily Telegraph.
:00:44. > :00:46.And Security Minister John Hayes has written in the paper arguing Britain
:00:47. > :00:51.is better placed to fight terrorism outside the European Union.
:00:52. > :01:02.The Daily Express says it has seen figures migrants.
:01:03. > :01:05.The Metro leads with security measures for the Euro 2016
:01:06. > :01:07.tournament, saying bars in France have been banned from showing
:01:08. > :01:14.matches on outdoor big screens over terror fears.
:01:15. > :01:18.The Mail's front page has a picture of Sir Philip Green and the crisis
:01:19. > :01:29.It says some Conservative backbench MPs are pressing for him to lose his
:01:30. > :01:31.title. The FT shows a picture
:01:32. > :01:33.of Bernie Sanders with President Obama at the White House,
:01:34. > :01:35.promising to work with Hillary Clinton to defeat
:01:36. > :01:52.Donald Trump in the US election. Let's begin with the Metro. Yes,
:01:53. > :02:03.this is the story you alluded to just now, that venues have been
:02:04. > :02:07.banned from showing the match as an outdoor big screens because of fears
:02:08. > :02:10.of terror attacks, the argument being the supporters will be safe in
:02:11. > :02:19.designated fan zones where police can protect them. But England fans
:02:20. > :02:27.said they would feel safer in small groups. But how can you... Are you
:02:28. > :02:33.safer on the S side of an airport, where there is huge security and
:02:34. > :02:38.people are waiting on longer, or on the other side? It's a very
:02:39. > :02:42.difficult thing for the security forces and intelligence services. In
:02:43. > :02:48.the wake of the attacks in France, they will be terribly worried about
:02:49. > :02:53.the possibility. It's a nightmare to do this. Weather it makes any
:02:54. > :02:59.difference, only time will tell, but it will have a huge impact on the
:03:00. > :03:05.sense and feeling of the football tournament itself. A huge challenge
:03:06. > :03:09.for the authorities, Nigel. You can't blame the French for being
:03:10. > :03:14.twitchy, considering everything that has happened there. I agree with Joe
:03:15. > :03:19.here. Whether it will make a difference, who knows, but the idea
:03:20. > :03:22.of being in small groups and a variety of different bars,
:03:23. > :03:27.presumably, statistically, you are more likely to be OK for a bomb goes
:03:28. > :03:32.off in a big group. But really, in something like this, the only thing
:03:33. > :03:38.you can do is go there, enjoy yourself, keep note of all the
:03:39. > :03:42.authorities tell you not worry too much about it because there's
:03:43. > :03:47.nothing you can do. The big screen outside, is traditional of these
:03:48. > :03:55.tournaments. It is, but the impact of that is it is insane to you is
:03:56. > :04:01.the influence that terrorism has, which has made people change the way
:04:02. > :04:05.they have behaved. What we were saying about trying to carry on as
:04:06. > :04:09.normal, we have not. We will talk about the EU. We will do it twice,
:04:10. > :04:17.once fired the Guardian, but we will start with the Telegraph. This
:04:18. > :04:21.quotes John Hayes, D Security minister, who is in favour of
:04:22. > :04:27.leaving. He has done an interview with the Telegraph. He seems to be
:04:28. > :04:32.saying, its total nonsense! The argument that everything I have
:04:33. > :04:35.heard from Whitehall security sources saying that it really
:04:36. > :04:42.doesn't make any difference, this should not be an argument. The way
:04:43. > :04:46.that intelligence works is you operate with like-minded
:04:47. > :04:50.intelligence services to our allies, personal relationships, it depends
:04:51. > :04:54.on where the crossovers are and the relationships you have built up.
:04:55. > :05:02.What he is saying is we are better off dealing with United States,
:05:03. > :05:08.Canada, Australia, New Zealand. His critique is that the EU he says is
:05:09. > :05:12.guilty of grand scheming and trying to appropriate power instead of
:05:13. > :05:16.doing the job in hand. What you are talking about that is what is
:05:17. > :05:22.happening at the political level. It's rather different from the guys
:05:23. > :05:25.who operate on the ground. The intelligence services operate
:05:26. > :05:35.outside the umbrella of the EU in the same way they operate here. John
:05:36. > :05:41.Hayes, and what he said? I hate to say I agree with Nigel but it sounds
:05:42. > :05:46.like an awful lot of twaddle to me. This is political posturing that
:05:47. > :05:50.looks desperate. He also says, David Cameron is marvellous, presumably
:05:51. > :05:54.trying to hedge his bets and keep some sort of political career,
:05:55. > :05:57.whatever the result of the referendum and says this referendum
:05:58. > :06:01.is not about his leadership or settling old scores or reducing big
:06:02. > :06:05.arguments to petty points. I don't know where he has been for the last
:06:06. > :06:09.few weeks because it is clearly about that. We have just talked
:06:10. > :06:16.about the security measures in France, which I can't think would be
:06:17. > :06:21.any different. Talking about political point scoring and be EU
:06:22. > :06:25.referendum debate, the Guardian has got three photographs of three of
:06:26. > :06:34.those taking part in the night's ITV debate. Three blondes. They are
:06:35. > :06:42.going down the Nicola Sturgeon line with the headline. Apparently, she
:06:43. > :06:47.led a concerted onslaught by the remaining campaign on Boris Johnson,
:06:48. > :06:52.and this hinges on the figure of the ?350 million a week that Boris
:06:53. > :07:00.Johnson has in the course of this debate stood by, that Britain sends
:07:01. > :07:05.that much money, even though it has been pretty much rubbished by quite
:07:06. > :07:11.a lot of people, including the independent statistics authority. It
:07:12. > :07:18.is not taking into account the returns the to us. He argues that we
:07:19. > :07:22.don't have control of that sum of money, that is where he comes from.
:07:23. > :07:29.But it is not a sum of money we actually sent over. It's more like
:07:30. > :07:34.100 or 150 million, which is considerably less. I think Boris...
:07:35. > :07:40.I did not see much of this, only the news clips, but Nicola Sturgeon is a
:07:41. > :07:45.formidable woman and formidable operator and Boris might be coming
:07:46. > :07:51.is lightly unstuck. Looking further down the eye Boris performing
:07:52. > :08:00.strongly on the issue of sovereignty. That that is right.
:08:01. > :08:05.Both campaigns have been utterly appalling. Everybody is dealing in
:08:06. > :08:10.absolutes and the voters don't and it would be so much better if David
:08:11. > :08:16.Cameron had said, on balance, we are better off staying in, but instead
:08:17. > :08:24.he says, an absolute disaster if we pull out. Same thing applies to the
:08:25. > :08:29.Brexit campaign. The campaign has been very bad. What they have
:08:30. > :08:34.narrowed it down to is that you have got the fear of immigration on one
:08:35. > :08:39.side if we stay in, you have got the fear of economic uncertainty of the
:08:40. > :08:45.pull-out, and those now at the campaign battle lines. I must say,
:08:46. > :08:50.it's extremely refreshing to see if you all female faces and certainly
:08:51. > :08:56.the interventions over the last 24 hours have actually brought things
:08:57. > :09:03.down a little bit to a reasonable conversation to be blabbing around
:09:04. > :09:08.the country. Five women, one man. We have the Financial Times. They are
:09:09. > :09:12.talking about the polls and polling process and how difficult this is
:09:13. > :09:18.proving to be, particularly in the light of what happened in Europe.
:09:19. > :09:21.This is a really interesting story because the pollsters were caught
:09:22. > :09:27.out or got it wrong, depending which way you choose to look at it, by
:09:28. > :09:31.getting it completely wrong on the election, the last general election.
:09:32. > :09:37.What's interesting about this is that because of the huge economic
:09:38. > :09:42.impact either way, whatever the decision is, lots of people like
:09:43. > :09:46.investment banks, hedge funds and investors, are trying to
:09:47. > :09:49.second-guess the result so they can make arrangements either to move
:09:50. > :09:53.money or reinvest or shift things around. The pollsters have got a lot
:09:54. > :09:58.riding on this because if they get it wrong, and those investors make
:09:59. > :10:01.the wrong decision, they will blame the pollsters. But what's really
:10:02. > :10:07.interesting in the course of this lengthy article is the difference
:10:08. > :10:17.between online polls and telephone poles. And on an online poll, you
:10:18. > :10:22.end up with usually more don't know, don't know what to say, so a much
:10:23. > :10:28.more neck and neck thing, whereas with a telephone pole, and to a
:10:29. > :10:32.certain extent it self selecting, an online poll, because you are putting
:10:33. > :10:36.your name forward, whereas with a telephone pole, someone can phone
:10:37. > :10:42.you up and they will try to push you to yes or no. The other problem with
:10:43. > :10:46.this is the sampling. In terms of who you choose to approach in the
:10:47. > :10:51.first place and how you make sure that is representative. If the
:10:52. > :10:58.pollsters are doing their job, they were weighted so it's
:10:59. > :11:01.representative. Which they try to do a year ago! One fascinating
:11:02. > :11:06.statistic here that the Financial Times mentions is that 56% of
:11:07. > :11:12.telephone polls gave Tories believed, which is what happened,
:11:13. > :11:17.only 10% of non-posted. The problem is that a telephone pole is very
:11:18. > :11:24.labour-intensive and will cost ?10,000. An online poll comes in at
:11:25. > :11:28.?1000. You can see why an awful lot of news organisations have been
:11:29. > :11:31.going for the online version until we discovered last year that they
:11:32. > :11:35.were not worth a lot. It is compounded by a problem here that
:11:36. > :11:41.with general elections, they have something to base it on but this
:11:42. > :11:47.time around, it is a long time ago since we had anything like it. This
:11:48. > :11:53.referendum, we had no idea. But at the moment, pollsters are saying, if
:11:54. > :11:55.you want to know our voting intention, use a telephone pole,
:11:56. > :12:00.expensive but at least you will grill it down a bit because you are
:12:01. > :12:05.talking to people and getting a proper reply. There is a brilliant
:12:06. > :12:09.comment from Professor John Curtis who says lots of things are hanging
:12:10. > :12:16.on this referendum, one of them is the future of the polling industry.
:12:17. > :12:22.Reputation lay... They can't get it wrong again. A quick word about
:12:23. > :12:30.Bernie Sanders who was edging towards... It is probably Hillary
:12:31. > :12:34.Clinton's will he end up endorsing Hillary Clinton? The answer is
:12:35. > :12:40.probably he will. It will probably depend on what job he gets when he
:12:41. > :12:45.does. But if he does, she has got more chance of beating Trump because
:12:46. > :12:48.he will bring with him the young people that he attracted and there
:12:49. > :12:55.are quite a lot of people who don't like Hillary Clinton. It's a
:12:56. > :13:03.peculiar image. That is further Hillary Clinton or for people to
:13:04. > :13:07.draw pictures of Donald Trump. Nigel, this cartoon on the front of
:13:08. > :13:15.the Telegraph is where we wish to end because it takes us back to
:13:16. > :13:22.Brexit and Euro 2016 neatly. They have managed to combine the two
:13:23. > :13:31.things together and he has got an England player saying, summing up
:13:32. > :13:42.every issue there, immigration, football and the whole referendum
:13:43. > :13:48.debate. He just gets it. He is so clever. Brilliant. Time is up. Thank
:13:49. > :13:52.you both very much indeed. That is it for the papers the night before
:13:53. > :14:01.we go, the Times coming while we have been talking and it leads with
:14:02. > :14:05.the stem cell story and shows a picture of the Chancellor and Ruth
:14:06. > :14:11.Davidson at a farm. They want the UK to stay in the EU. Don't forget, or
:14:12. > :14:18.the front pages are online, where you can read a detailed review on
:14:19. > :14:26.those papers. And you can see us there as well. So thanks again and
:14:27. > :14:31.goodbye.