:00:14. > :00:17.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be
:00:18. > :00:21.With me here in the studio is Toby Young, Associate Editor
:00:22. > :00:24.for The Spectator, and political commentator, Jo Philips.
:00:25. > :00:27.And joining us from Edinburgh is David Torrance
:00:28. > :00:33.Tomorrow's front pages, starting with
:00:34. > :00:35.The Daily Mail front page celebrates the Leave vote -
:00:36. > :00:39.their picture has jubilant crowds and the headline "Take a bow
:00:40. > :00:43.The Express has more on the resignation of David Cameron
:00:44. > :00:46.and names Boris Johnson as the favourite to take over
:00:47. > :00:50.The Times describes today's events as a "Brexit Earthquake."
:00:51. > :00:52.It also features a picture of David Cameron and his wife
:00:53. > :00:57.The Telegraph describes yesterday's vote as the "Birth
:00:58. > :01:01.It says Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are preparing a bid
:01:02. > :01:05.to take control of the Conservative party.
:01:06. > :01:08.The Guardian simply says: "Over and Out" as it wraps up key events
:01:09. > :01:11.from today's decision to leave the EU.
:01:12. > :01:13.The Daily Mirror has a picture of an anguished looking
:01:14. > :01:16.Samantha Cameron as she watches her husband resign -
:01:17. > :01:19.asking 'So what the hell happens now?
:01:20. > :01:22.The Sun focusses on the career of David Cameron and why he has
:01:23. > :01:27.And the Scottish Daily Mail has the headline: "Disunited Kingdom."
:01:28. > :01:37.It says the result of today's referendum has torn Britain apart.
:01:38. > :01:50.Last night, about ten o'clock, Nigel Farage called it for Remain. When we
:01:51. > :02:01.you convinced? The first indication that the exit poll and Ipsos MORI
:02:02. > :02:08.were wrong was the result from Sunderland. Also the result from
:02:09. > :02:21.Newcastle where Remain on but not by the margin expected. Brexit
:02:22. > :02:30.earthquake, the Prime Minister announces his resignation. David, I
:02:31. > :02:35.want to come to the idea of a second Independent referendum later but the
:02:36. > :02:42.fact is, the UK is massively divided and Scotland already looks like
:02:43. > :02:52.another country? Yes, this is part of an ongoing process. I have
:02:53. > :02:59.covered this for the past few years. It doesn't feel like another country
:03:00. > :03:03.and you cannot argue with the differential vote like that.
:03:04. > :03:15.Scotland voted overwhelmingly for Remain although 40% did back Leave.
:03:16. > :03:24.The other two quarters of the country, south, voted decisively for
:03:25. > :03:37.the Mac that I say decisively but it was quite narrow. -- Leave. It makes
:03:38. > :03:45.it question opinion polls again and again? Yes, I remember talking not
:03:46. > :03:52.so many days ago about the pressure on the pollsters because they got it
:03:53. > :03:56.so wrong. Even the private polling that hedge funds and investment were
:03:57. > :04:01.doing was still not accurate because we saw that great surge yesterday on
:04:02. > :04:06.the money market which tumbled overnight and then came back.
:04:07. > :04:10.Clearly, they were banking on Remain, just by a whisker. There
:04:11. > :04:14.will be questions about the polling but I still think many people went
:04:15. > :04:19.to the polling booth and actually had not made up their mind until
:04:20. > :04:24.they got there and any conversation any of us have had, and it is
:04:25. > :04:30.fantastic that it has energised people talking about politics on
:04:31. > :04:34.something about such huge importance for generations to come but there
:04:35. > :04:42.were people wobbling to the very end. The Daily Mail, take a bow
:04:43. > :04:50.Britain. It was a day the quiet people rose above an elite. It goes
:04:51. > :04:59.on to talk about the tumultuous defence of our time. Given that this
:05:00. > :05:04.has divided people so deeply, now is the time to try to bring everybody
:05:05. > :05:11.together but how do we do that? Precisely. As Peter Hensley said
:05:12. > :05:16.Hurley today, the constitutional historian, it is about resetting the
:05:17. > :05:22.dials and there is a great chance here, actually, for the reshaping of
:05:23. > :05:25.British politics. It is absolutely ridiculous that the male talks about
:05:26. > :05:32.the quiet people of Britain rising up against an arrogant elite class
:05:33. > :05:36.and mangoes on page after page praising Michael Gove and Boris
:05:37. > :05:40.Johnson who are part of that political class. It is clear, after
:05:41. > :05:48.nonsense but what I think is needed is a lot less of these jingoistic
:05:49. > :05:53.celebration and a lot of sensible calm and what happens next, it is
:05:54. > :06:01.about negotiations. What is the plan? It is true that Michael Gove
:06:02. > :06:05.and Boris Johnson are members of the political class but it is also true
:06:06. > :06:11.that they managed to harness a popular revolt against the
:06:12. > :06:15.establishment and one of the reason Remain did not do better is because
:06:16. > :06:20.David Cameron made no attempt to try and dress up the Remain campaign as
:06:21. > :06:30.anything other than the establishment defending the status
:06:31. > :06:35.quo. He made a mistake by lining up the IMF, the Treasury, the president
:06:36. > :06:40.of the US but make it enabled Boris and Michael to whip up popular
:06:41. > :06:45.resentment and it is not just a phenomenon confined to Britain, use
:06:46. > :06:50.it across America and Europe as well. How much of the winners been
:06:51. > :06:55.able to celebrate given the fact that immediately Nigel Farage was
:06:56. > :07:03.asked when does the NHS get the money, when does immigration get
:07:04. > :07:08.code and the answer is our, not yet or maybe not ever. Nigel Farage was
:07:09. > :07:15.not part of the official campaign. He is not an MP. We are not about to
:07:16. > :07:25.find ourselves in Nigel Farage's Britain... But a lot of people will
:07:26. > :07:32.actually say that Nigel Farage has dominated. He is the person that has
:07:33. > :07:37.energised and that if it was not for him we would never have had a
:07:38. > :07:43.referendum. Scotland went through this with a close vote with the
:07:44. > :07:49.independence referendum, arguably Scotland was very divided. How
:07:50. > :07:59.deeply have those divisions remained over the last few months? There are
:08:00. > :08:05.two rising cases. People will tell you it was very divisive and nasty
:08:06. > :08:10.those on the losing side would tell you it was a festival of democracy
:08:11. > :08:17.and uplifting. The truth is somewhere in between. Both accounts
:08:18. > :08:23.are caricatures. In a polarised referendum, which is essentially
:08:24. > :08:28.about existential question of who you are, your identity and the
:08:29. > :08:40.future of the country. Of course, it is game to be divisive. There was no
:08:41. > :08:51.room for nuance or middle way. My overwhelming sense was deja vu. The
:08:52. > :08:58.legitimisation of experts and the media and fax was all horribly
:08:59. > :09:05.familiar but they were good signs as well. The turnout was high. Not as I
:09:06. > :09:11.as it was a few years ago in Scotland but previously it was a
:09:12. > :09:15.much more salient issue but anything that engages the proportion of the
:09:16. > :09:20.election... The other thing that came out of the Scottish referendum
:09:21. > :09:28.is this rejuvenation with new leaders. We saw the demise of Murphy
:09:29. > :09:35.but look at Davidson coming out as a new superstar. It is quite striking
:09:36. > :09:42.that the two most impressive operators in the British Isles are
:09:43. > :09:47.Davidson and the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Cast your mind back
:09:48. > :09:50.to 1999 when the experiment was first embarked upon. It was said
:09:51. > :09:55.that Scottish politicians will no longer have a place in the UK stage
:09:56. > :10:03.that turned out to be far from the truth or stop although it looks very
:10:04. > :10:09.different now, we have a very high profile figure. The Daily Express
:10:10. > :10:17.and The Sun, we are out of the EU. The Express comes to us pretty early
:10:18. > :10:30.on. Boris as next piano. We do not know. And we can gloss over the
:10:31. > :10:36.David Cameron story. Why should he hang around? Given that he does not
:10:37. > :10:41.believe in Britain's withdrawal from the EU and given that there is going
:10:42. > :10:48.to be a lot of hard work to be done to work out what the new settlement
:10:49. > :10:54.is, what the new relationship is with the EU, it is understandable he
:10:55. > :10:57.did not want to do that. But he is the one who is responsible for
:10:58. > :11:03.bringing the referendum in the first place. He did not need to. He could
:11:04. > :11:13.have said, I hear to govern. He may not have won the election if he had
:11:14. > :11:16.not agreed to hold the referendum. What of the ways the story is
:11:17. > :11:24.reported is slightly jumping the gun. The headline, we are out of the
:11:25. > :11:31.EU. Everywhere it has been reported as a foregone conclusion. That has
:11:32. > :11:33.been the will of British people but it is much will likely I think that
:11:34. > :11:38.the leaders of the European Union will now come back and make a
:11:39. > :11:42.different offer, some form of associate membership which is
:11:43. > :11:48.probably what David Cameron should have gone for. Surely, if that is
:11:49. > :11:57.the case, people who voted to get out, will say that is not what we
:11:58. > :12:03.voted for. As of yet, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has not been
:12:04. > :12:07.evoked. It is not have to be triggered for ages and ages. We are
:12:08. > :12:13.ready had various European leaders are saying, you decided to go so go
:12:14. > :12:20.and you can understand that they want to do it and you can also
:12:21. > :12:24.understand the thinking behind the opinion in other European countries,
:12:25. > :12:30.as we have seen by the congratulations by Le Pen and other
:12:31. > :12:36.right wing parties to sway other right wig nations to do the same. Of
:12:37. > :12:39.course they want negotiations quite quickly because there are also
:12:40. > :12:44.elections coming up in Spain, Holland and France next year but
:12:45. > :12:48.this is about who is going to negotiate. Clearly, David Cameron
:12:49. > :12:52.who has a ready said long before this, that he would step down before
:12:53. > :12:58.the end of this Parliament cannot be in a position to negotiate and it is
:12:59. > :13:04.a two-year minimum deal if we use Article 50. There is an article in
:13:05. > :13:13.the FT which talks about whether Scotland or even Northern Ireland
:13:14. > :13:18.could do what Denmark has done an it stayed in their EU but parts of his
:13:19. > :13:29.kingdom, Greenland, decided to leave. The Fera Islands as well.
:13:30. > :13:32.That is in a similar situation. The point to make is the European Union
:13:33. > :13:40.is a highly flexible political organisation and even if we set
:13:41. > :13:45.out... And the truth is, I am old enough to remember German
:13:46. > :13:52.reunification, it was dealt with in a matter of months. A newly expanded
:13:53. > :14:05.Germany. I think they called it internal enlargement. I think, the
:14:06. > :14:07.First Minister spoke about this this morning, she is going to engage
:14:08. > :14:12.directly with Russell and she will seek what the mood is there and how
:14:13. > :14:16.willing they are to be flexible in their approach to the bits of the
:14:17. > :14:24.UK, and it might even include London...
:14:25. > :14:32.The Mirror says, what happens now? Day one of Brexit Britain. The pound
:14:33. > :14:38.fell sharply, but then there was a rally and be saw a huge amount wiped
:14:39. > :14:44.off shares and the losses were catastrophic, we were told. Some
:14:45. > :14:48.people who voted for Leave were surprised that this had happened,
:14:49. > :14:51.then they said, if I had known that this was going to happen and my vote
:14:52. > :14:57.would actually count it would have voted to Remain. How many have some
:14:58. > :15:02.people being? I think taking back your democratic rights does take
:15:03. > :15:07.courage because there are always risks involved. Sometimes, the
:15:08. > :15:17.following day, when you become more aware of what those risks are, you
:15:18. > :15:25.get a bit of buyers' remorse. The FTSE 100 did finish 2% up on the
:15:26. > :15:31.week. But what is the plan? I heard Brexit campaigners saying that what
:15:32. > :15:36.we need to do is gather round are some experts, business leaders and
:15:37. > :15:39.lawyers. But a lot of people were saying, the reason I voted to leave
:15:40. > :15:45.is because I am sick of hearing from experts. The plan, as Boris set out
:15:46. > :15:49.in his original column in the Daily Telegraph in which he declared that
:15:50. > :15:54.he would be campaigning for Leave, was to try and get the British
:15:55. > :15:58.public to reject the EU in the hope that the EU would then come back
:15:59. > :16:05.with an offer not just for us but for everyone. I think the reason why
:16:06. > :16:11.that would fly is because the result was so close and you can't have an
:16:12. > :16:22.outcome which just favours one side. It has got to be a compromise. It
:16:23. > :16:29.was so close. I don't think that Nicola Sturgeon is going to trigger
:16:30. > :16:31.a second referendum before she knows what the final agreement between
:16:32. > :16:39.Britain and the EU would need. Wouldn't that be sensible? Of
:16:40. > :16:44.course, what it is high stakes. It would be high stakes. Extremely high
:16:45. > :16:48.stakes. And it would be sensible, to go back to your analogy, there
:16:49. > :16:54.should be a cooling off period. It is frightening. Did you want to take
:16:55. > :17:00.out the extra warranty? Not at that price! In actual fact there will be
:17:01. > :17:04.people who don't realise what they voted for, which doesn't mean they
:17:05. > :17:13.are stupid or ignorant, it just means in the noise over the past few
:17:14. > :17:20.weeks of people shouting and it has been a very badtempered claim, it's
:17:21. > :17:26.a -- campaign, it is amazing so many people turned out to vote. But they
:17:27. > :17:31.do often count on people not turning up. Now there needs to be a bit of
:17:32. > :17:38.time and reflection with precisely that, but does Europe want us to
:17:39. > :17:43.stay that badly? Do they want Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson as a Prime
:17:44. > :17:47.Minister? Unless they come up with a 2-tiered system EU is destined to
:17:48. > :17:51.collapse as there is no appetite among the public of so many European
:17:52. > :17:58.countries to be part of a united Europe. Page six and seven of the
:17:59. > :18:04.Mail. It talks about who the runners and riders are, the people who may
:18:05. > :18:13.or may not want to throw the hat in the ring. How is this looked upon?
:18:14. > :18:20.We know the Conservatives in Westminster elections don't do well.
:18:21. > :18:22.Who is the money on up there? Because Jeremy Corbyn isn't
:18:23. > :18:29.necessarily looking particularly safe, easy? This again highlights
:18:30. > :18:36.the growing distance between Scotland and England. Ruth Davidson
:18:37. > :18:42.a few days ago was having a very effective pop at Boris Johnson at
:18:43. > :18:47.Wembley Stadium, so I think that is one to watch. Does she declare
:18:48. > :18:52.independence effectively from the UK Conservative party, if Boris
:18:53. > :18:57.Johnson, who she clearly doesn't like, becomes leader? And Scottish
:18:58. > :19:03.Labour has already been making noises about becoming even more
:19:04. > :19:07.autonomous from the UK party. But it simply doesn't matter who becomes
:19:08. > :19:12.the next leader of the Conservative party or the Labour Party. The
:19:13. > :19:17.direction of travel in Scotland seems absolutely clear and that's
:19:18. > :19:29.not, as some viewers would know, a partisan point on my part, it is
:19:30. > :19:34.just how it feels. The Daily Record says many are backing a second
:19:35. > :19:40.referendum. Which we will come to! But it just doesn't matter who the
:19:41. > :19:44.next leader is. Does it matter? It might matter for the Scots if it was
:19:45. > :19:51.Michael Gove, because he is a Scot. That's complicated the! It is not
:19:52. > :19:59.fantasy that he is a Scot. It's a fantasy that it makes any idea --
:20:00. > :20:05.any difference. The fact that Boris Johnson has been identified as the
:20:06. > :20:13.bookies' favourite, at one point you could have been 9:1 against Leave
:20:14. > :20:16.winning last night. But the Conservative party, and we talk
:20:17. > :20:22.about divisions, the Conservative party again was with the part by
:20:23. > :20:24.Europe. Exactly. Let's rewind to three or four minutes ago when we
:20:25. > :20:29.were talking about the sensible option of having a second referendum
:20:30. > :20:33.on the sensible associated membership. You are then going to
:20:34. > :20:37.have the same anguish in the Conservative party about whether you
:20:38. > :20:40.would vote for that. I think actually whoever leaves the
:20:41. > :20:46.Conservative Party or whoever leads the country needs to heal this
:20:47. > :20:50.hideous rift. -- leads the Conservative Party. As promised a
:20:51. > :20:59.want to talk quickly about the disunited kingdom. The Scottish
:21:00. > :21:03.version of The Daily Mail. I mean, what is it necessary for us to do
:21:04. > :21:06.this today? We know that we should be thinking about it, was she under
:21:07. > :21:10.a lot of pressure to start talking about the second referendum? Yes,
:21:11. > :21:15.there is certainly pressure within the party. Some in the party are
:21:16. > :21:20.very impatient for a second referendum. Alex Salmond is one of
:21:21. > :21:24.them. Nicola Sturgeon is seen as a more cautious figure, but this
:21:25. > :21:28.morning she went much further than certainly I expected and many other
:21:29. > :21:33.observers, although there were a lot of caveats. It isn't going to happen
:21:34. > :21:41.soon. I think what she will do is take that timeframe, the formal
:21:42. > :21:46.notification withdrawal wouldn't be made for some time. There's at least
:21:47. > :21:49.two years after that to play with. I think what the Nicola Sturgeon plan
:21:50. > :21:55.is, this is just conjecture and I often get these things wrong, is
:21:56. > :21:59.that she will aim for another independence referendum shortly
:22:00. > :22:06.before the formal point of withdrawal with the UK and the
:22:07. > :22:10.timing will be such that it allows Scotland, if independence is
:22:11. > :22:14.sanctioned in-out referendum, to remain a continuing member of the
:22:15. > :22:18.European Union. I have to emphasise the idea that any of that is
:22:19. > :22:22.straightforward or easy is not the case and indeed the First Minister
:22:23. > :22:26.made that point this morning. I think she will find it quite
:22:27. > :22:29.difficult to do that. For one reason, the Prime Minister announced
:22:30. > :22:35.today that she would be involved in the negotiation process. That makes
:22:36. > :22:40.it easier. She has a direct involvement in the process. But it
:22:41. > :22:44.makes it harder if she sanctions the final settlement, he then urged the
:22:45. > :22:47.Scottish people to reject it. Another reason she will find it
:22:48. > :22:51.difficult to call a second referendum is if the voice was
:22:52. > :22:55.between the United Kingdom which has a new and better relationship with
:22:56. > :22:59.the EU, or at the Scotland becoming independent and joining the EU, it
:23:00. > :23:04.would be like a choice between being part of a democratic union and being
:23:05. > :23:10.part of an undemocratic union. A democratic union with a hereditary
:23:11. > :23:15.head of state. Let us quickly... Does a couple of minutes. This
:23:16. > :23:21.French newspaper, good luck, it says, with a picture of Boris
:23:22. > :23:30.hanging from a zip wire. It says... Stunned? Paralysed, actually. Many
:23:31. > :23:38.questions. Yes. The countries in the EU after victory, led by Boris
:23:39. > :23:46.Johnson. You could argue whether this is tongue in cheek. Woodlark, a
:23:47. > :23:57.man on a zip wire? -- good luck. Better Boris Johnson that Marine Le
:23:58. > :24:00.Pen. Yes. They are cheering this. One comment from each of you.
:24:01. > :24:06.Somebody reading the news. Good evening. Aliens didn't land on Earth
:24:07. > :24:12.and Elvis wasn't found alive. But everything else happened. It has
:24:13. > :24:19.been monumentally surprising for some people, hasn't it? Yes. To
:24:20. > :24:23.clinch it all, Donald Trump was in Scotland today, he arrived this
:24:24. > :24:26.morning, seemingly unaware of the fact that different parts of the UK
:24:27. > :24:31.voted differently. We didn't have aliens or Elvis, but we had Donald
:24:32. > :24:36.Trump. I think it has been astonishing. It is nothing like a
:24:37. > :24:44.general election that any of us have covered. As Dale --a staggering day.
:24:45. > :24:52.One of the peculiarities to add to the Donald Trump thing is the sequel
:24:53. > :24:53.to Independence Day came out tomorrow.
:24:54. > :24:58.Thank you, Toby Young, Jo Philips and David Torrance.
:24:59. > :25:01.I know you are all rather tired. We appreciate you being here.
:25:02. > :25:21.We should all see a bit of sunshine at times this coming weekend. Still
:25:22. > :25:27.some rain in the mix. We had that mixed during Friday as well. Some
:25:28. > :25:28.areas, just say whether Cumulus