:00:00. > :00:16.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be
:00:17. > :00:20.With me are the Political Editor of the Sunday Times, Tim Shipman,
:00:21. > :00:23.the Political Editor of the Daily Express,
:00:24. > :00:27.Caroline Wheeler and the London Editor of the Irish
:00:28. > :00:47.An ad you have all had a busy few weeks. You cannot be shot of
:00:48. > :00:54.exciting things to write. The leadership contest into political
:00:55. > :00:58.parties and, who knows, we may have a general election. We are battered.
:00:59. > :01:00.Stay at home. So let's take a look
:01:01. > :01:02.at tomorrow's front pages. And Tories at War is
:01:03. > :01:05.the Sunday Telegraph's headline. The paper says bitter infighting
:01:06. > :01:07.has reached new heights Tories Battle to Stop Boris
:01:08. > :01:10.is the Mail on Sunday's lead. The paper says a string of MPs
:01:11. > :01:14.are lining up in the race to succeed Along the same lines,
:01:15. > :01:20.The Sunday Times' top story headline reads Top Tories rush
:01:21. > :01:29.to stop Boris bandwagon. The Observer says Britain is heading
:01:30. > :01:34.into a period of unprecedented political, constitutional
:01:35. > :01:35.and economic crisis' as European leaders put pressure on the UK
:01:36. > :01:38.to act quickly. The Sunday Express outlines what it
:01:39. > :01:49.says is a 'triple boost' to the UK We will start with the Observer.
:01:50. > :01:57.Europe's leader demand to get out now. Angela Merkel was sounding
:01:58. > :02:02.quite diplomatic. Meanwhile, other founding members are saying you
:02:03. > :02:09.decided on this so you need to get a move on. We said we were to go so
:02:10. > :02:14.they want is to go so they can stabilise as we seamlessly drift out
:02:15. > :02:19.but it is not really going to happen that way and Angela Merkel
:02:20. > :02:26.understand that and she does not want to totally alienate Britain and
:02:27. > :02:33.she is waiving the olive branch. She's saying we do not have to rush
:02:34. > :02:40.them and give them time to invoke Article 50 which is the legal
:02:41. > :02:45.mechanism to Exeter. Nobody has ever used it before so it is an chartered
:02:46. > :02:52.territory. It is all uncharted territory. It is down to Britain to
:02:53. > :02:58.do it. And it does not make sense to do it when we are picking a new
:02:59. > :03:03.Prime Minister. David Cameron has said to invoke Article 50 when we
:03:04. > :03:12.have a new Prime Minister. Angela Merkel, it smacks of a guilt
:03:13. > :03:18.complex. She denied freedom of movement as part of the Renee Gracie
:03:19. > :03:22.is and that frankly looks like that is what put him in a tricky position
:03:23. > :03:28.with the British public. She is trying to help her old mate out a
:03:29. > :03:34.bit late in the day. One of your colleagues wrote Brexit is a
:03:35. > :03:40.bewildering act of self harm. Is there anything positive you can see
:03:41. > :03:47.about what the British have decided to do? Not from an Irish point of
:03:48. > :03:55.view. Some people are clutching at straws about growth in jobs if the
:03:56. > :04:00.city moves over their art it is all on the downside, economic league, it
:04:01. > :04:03.diplomatically and it goes deeper in the sense that one of the happiest
:04:04. > :04:07.things that has happened to Ireland has been improvement in the
:04:08. > :04:12.relationship between Ireland and Britain and Irish people feel it
:04:13. > :04:20.very deeply. The atmosphere is very relaxed. There is a slight unease
:04:21. > :04:24.that something about that could change. That we would find ourselves
:04:25. > :04:35.a little bit going in different directions whereas we had big coming
:04:36. > :04:39.together -- being. It feels less to British people but to Irish people
:04:40. > :04:45.might happen, for the first time we found ourselves meeting as equals at
:04:46. > :04:52.international forums. Although we were the small country, nonetheless,
:04:53. > :04:59.the Irish, felt after all the psychodrama from history, this was a
:05:00. > :05:08.place where we could start in a different way. A lot of Irish
:05:09. > :05:11.politicians and officials got to know British counterparts very well
:05:12. > :05:20.and that helped with the process. Nobody would argue the European
:05:21. > :05:32.project is perfect at what are the gripes from Ireland? In the Irish...
:05:33. > :05:38.The last couple of years, after our financial crash, we got help from
:05:39. > :05:44.the EU but with a lot of painful and unpleasant strings attached so the
:05:45. > :05:49.Irish did see the cold and arrogant face of Europe very recently but,
:05:50. > :05:55.having said that, for Island membership has always been
:05:56. > :05:58.fundamentally regarded as something that has helped us and we have never
:05:59. > :06:06.had the feeling as a lot of people in Britain have had that they did
:06:07. > :06:12.not feeding. You are going to have a massive immigration problem with all
:06:13. > :06:20.the Brits moving the island! They are very welcome. There is a bit of
:06:21. > :06:27.a rush for anyone with Irish ancestry to get a passport. There
:06:28. > :06:30.is, and there are complications. People from Northern Ireland can
:06:31. > :06:35.choose to have both passports and the citizenships and that could be
:06:36. > :06:38.interesting because it could raise a question that you could find
:06:39. > :06:48.somebody from Bell asked who is both a system of U youth -- Belfast --
:06:49. > :06:53.system of EU. Nothing seems to be straightforward but we like a
:06:54. > :07:00.puzzle. The shadow cabinet backing the revolt to depose Jeremy Corbyn
:07:01. > :07:06.but he says he's not going anywhere. This is becoming quite serious for
:07:07. > :07:12.Jeremy Corbyn. There is going to be a vote of no confidence, probably on
:07:13. > :07:17.Monday. It will be a secret ballot and there is every chance he could
:07:18. > :07:23.lose that. He could still contest the leadership. We have heard a lot
:07:24. > :07:28.of blood from the shadow cabinet, two thirds of them think their
:07:29. > :07:39.leader is a more on and wants to get rid of him -- more on. A respected
:07:40. > :07:48.figure ringing around saying, we really have to do this,... Even on
:07:49. > :07:54.Friday, the shadow cabinet met and one of the great purposes was for
:07:55. > :08:02.Jeremy Corbyn to say to them directly, due you still support me
:08:03. > :08:08.and went around the table and no definitive answer came back. Yet
:08:09. > :08:16.beforehand all these people were telling us he should go. This is now
:08:17. > :08:23.changing things. Will it not come down to the fact that if he has
:08:24. > :08:27.grassroot support his fine? In the long run but if you suffer a vote of
:08:28. > :08:33.no confidence where two thirds of your MPs say they do not want you to
:08:34. > :08:37.be the leader of the party, it does start to have an impact on the
:08:38. > :08:44.grassroots. The biggest Roblin is, who will stand against him? He also
:08:45. > :08:51.has a problem. Hillary Benn is actually approaching other members
:08:52. > :08:57.saying it he does not go voluntarily will you resign? If he cannot master
:08:58. > :09:05.enough people to serve, it would make his existence as leader fairly
:09:06. > :09:12.futile. Top Tories rushed to stop the Boris bandwagon. A whole range
:09:13. > :09:18.of people who might like to give it a well Bass absolutely. It will seem
:09:19. > :09:28.it will be a wide field. You have five names? Five, six, who knows! It
:09:29. > :09:35.surprises me about the life sciences Minister... This was my favourite
:09:36. > :09:41.text message of the day. Normally, you are delighted when you get a
:09:42. > :09:47.message from our politicians. He's telling me I have been urged to run
:09:48. > :09:56.and we have an agenda to go after young people. I had no idea who he
:09:57. > :10:03.was from. His number was not in my telephone so through a process of
:10:04. > :10:10.elimination I figured out it was George Friedman. Nicky Morgan,
:10:11. > :10:15.Stephen Crabb 's have spoken to the Sunday Times. Lynn Fox will have
:10:16. > :10:22.another turn at it. Jeremy Hunt is also seriously considering it, we
:10:23. > :10:29.are told. George Osborne we are have-nots heard from. But I do not
:10:30. > :10:37.think anyone thinks he is a gallop. Never rule out de de. He is touting
:10:38. > :10:42.around to see the can enough support. A wide field indeed in the
:10:43. > :10:47.contest. You have been through this not so long ago, trying to make the
:10:48. > :10:54.leadership stick. We have been trying to make the government stick!
:10:55. > :11:02.We had a chaotic outcome in the last elections so Kenny is relying on an
:11:03. > :11:08.assortment of diverse Independent members of Parliament and by the
:11:09. > :11:14.good grace of the opposition party who can revoke their good grace
:11:15. > :11:21.whenever they feel like it. It is touch and go. Do we think anybody
:11:22. > :11:29.can stop Boris? That is the million-dollar question. The dream
:11:30. > :11:35.team touted in the papers is I go up. Most people think it is going to
:11:36. > :11:44.be Boris against Theresa May. The way it the rules were, the Tory MPs
:11:45. > :11:49.select two members. In order to stop Boris, you need two people to get
:11:50. > :11:57.more MPs support is and it is difficult to see a strong challenge.
:11:58. > :12:02.And also, if you get into the final two, and it comes down to the
:12:03. > :12:09.Conservative Party association where Boris on schemes is extremely
:12:10. > :12:20.popular. Somebody will be doing some careful mathematics. You need 111
:12:21. > :12:29.MPs. You need a third class of one. It is not matter what anybody else
:12:30. > :12:34.gets. It is impressive. But it is interesting that one of the two
:12:35. > :12:39.should be a woman. There is going to be an attempt on Monday by some MPs
:12:40. > :12:48.who say one of them should be a woman. People see in this a plot. If
:12:49. > :12:59.you have a round of voting with two women, the woman who finishes top
:13:00. > :13:05.automatically finishes in. All the votes for example can then move into
:13:06. > :13:21.the men race. I don't think this was very recent.
:13:22. > :13:26.He is supposed to be playing cricket this afternoon. We didn't manage to
:13:27. > :13:35.get any photographs. It is very carefully worded. I wouldn't like to
:13:36. > :13:38.cast aspersions. Inside, the Brexit bombshell. The changing of the
:13:39. > :13:48.guard. It has some lovely, coloured photographs. A number of people will
:13:49. > :13:53.want to have a go at this, but they have a heck of a job on their hands.
:13:54. > :14:00.They have. There is a view in Tory leadership election is that the
:14:01. > :14:05.frontrunner doesn't win very often. In George Freeman's case, to
:14:06. > :14:13.introduce himself to the party and the wider public. I am delighted to
:14:14. > :14:17.see his missing from the Mail on Sunday's roster of potential
:14:18. > :14:21.candidates. Only because it means you have written about it and they
:14:22. > :14:26.haven't! It is the great revelation of the evening. There is some
:14:27. > :14:30.suggestion that Torres is calling for other candidates not to run,
:14:31. > :14:41.that there should be an automatic coronation that Boris should be
:14:42. > :14:46.crowned king. All these people who are touting themselves, they are
:14:47. > :14:50.indicating that they will run. I suspect what will happen is that
:14:51. > :14:53.some of these people will do their ring round and find they haven't got
:14:54. > :15:04.nearly enough support. Some people might think think 15 MPs is enough.
:15:05. > :15:07.I spoke to a cabinet minister earlier who said the party is not in
:15:08. > :15:10.the mood for a bunch of people with eight supporters and actually we
:15:11. > :15:15.should just get on and have this contest. There is a feeling that
:15:16. > :15:19.Stephen Pratt could get some momentum. Some people want to
:15:20. > :15:25.support him to stop Waris. There is a strong feeling amongst some people
:15:26. > :15:32.that there are two obvious big beasts. -- Boris. We should really
:15:33. > :15:37.just get on and have a fight between Boris Johnson and Theresa May for
:15:38. > :15:44.the crown. As is often the way, the Scottish Mail on Sunday has a
:15:45. > :15:47.different front page. EU snubbed the Nicola Sturgeon. Secret Brussels
:15:48. > :15:57.reports dashes SMP's hopes of staying in Europe. Should Scotland
:15:58. > :16:04.be allowed to ignore the result of the referendum? They are still part
:16:05. > :16:09.of the UK at the moment. If this result is supposed to be respected,
:16:10. > :16:21.Scotland should respect it as well. It is the member states. As soon as
:16:22. > :16:26.that changes, the situation changes. Article 50 has to be triggered.
:16:27. > :16:33.There is a fantasy on the Leave side, but they can wait as long as
:16:34. > :16:36.they like to triggered his Article 50. In theory they can but I think
:16:37. > :16:41.they have this notion that they would have informal negotiations and
:16:42. > :16:45.informal off the record talks, get the deal sorted out and then you
:16:46. > :16:50.start the clock. What the Europeans are saying is, we were talked to do,
:16:51. > :16:55.except in the context of this formal negotiations. What they are saying
:16:56. > :16:59.the Nicola Sturgeon is, you are going to have to leave the UK and
:17:00. > :17:05.apply as a new member state. That would mean a commitment to joining
:17:06. > :17:10.Europe, the Schengen. It would mean all of those things. Having said
:17:11. > :17:14.that, they say in the Scottish Mail on Sunday that it could take years.
:17:15. > :17:20.They could probably do it quickly in Scotland, because it already has all
:17:21. > :17:25.of the EU laws. So you wouldn't have to go through the process that
:17:26. > :17:30.Turkey did, to choose a candidate at random. There is a suggestion from
:17:31. > :17:35.constitutional experts that Northern Ireland and Scotland, because of how
:17:36. > :17:42.devolution is legislated for, would make it very difficult for Britain
:17:43. > :17:46.to enact the referendum. It is not my special subject but I read stuff
:17:47. > :17:49.today to suggest that they could put a brake on this and suggest they
:17:50. > :17:55.aren't going to do it if they don't like it. It is all very confusing,
:17:56. > :18:03.but it is interesting that Nicola Sturgeon is trying to say, we would
:18:04. > :18:08.effectively stay behind while the rest of Britain leaves. They are
:18:09. > :18:13.saying, no, you can't do that. If Scotland rejoined and then was in
:18:14. > :18:17.the Schengen zone are we there looking at rebuilding Hadrian's
:18:18. > :18:25.Wall, because you would be having to talk about putting up orders? That
:18:26. > :18:29.is a big question in Ireland again. Because part of it will be in
:18:30. > :18:35.Europe, do you then direct borders again? That's the reason why in
:18:36. > :18:41.Ireland what we would like would be that whatever deal is done is the
:18:42. > :18:45.deal that keeps Britain is closely connected to the EU as possible. So
:18:46. > :18:49.if that something like the Norwegian model, that could obviously keep
:18:50. > :18:55.Scotland in. If you remember the other day Nicola Sturgeon said that
:18:56. > :19:01.she wanted to make sure the key what Scotland's will was. -- to heed.
:19:02. > :19:06.That was to remain in EU, especially single market. If you take the
:19:07. > :19:12.single market problem off the table, then of course you do run into the
:19:13. > :19:16.problem that you can't then control immigration, which was the central
:19:17. > :19:19.promise of the referendum. There is another theory about when Article 50
:19:20. > :19:22.gets triggered. I read something today, that there's a clause in one
:19:23. > :19:27.of the treaties that suggests if David Cameron goes to the meeting
:19:28. > :19:32.next week and so much as talks about British Brexit, the can say, you
:19:33. > :19:36.have opened his talks with us now. You are effectively triggering
:19:37. > :19:40.Article 50, whether you like it or not. And all of the Brexiteers would
:19:41. > :19:45.then be thrown into chaos I imagine. The constitutional expert we spoke
:19:46. > :19:51.to suggested there needs to be a more formal declaration of that. But
:19:52. > :20:00.we are uncharted territory altogether. It is also the case that
:20:01. > :20:04.European Union law, whatever leaders say it is -- is whatever leaders say
:20:05. > :20:07.it is. So once they get in the room they can more or less decide what
:20:08. > :20:12.they want to do or how they wish to interpret the treaty. The treaty is
:20:13. > :20:14.worded in such a way that a member state informs the European Union
:20:15. > :20:22.that it wishes to withdraw. Excerpts couldn't. The Vote Leave campaign
:20:23. > :20:27.took it to the court in Luxembourg. -- except couldn't. And they used it
:20:28. > :20:33.to get the result they needed. They could do that. I think we have gone
:20:34. > :20:39.through the looking glass now. It just occurred to me! Before we move
:20:40. > :20:43.on, one thing about orders, very quickly after the result came out in
:20:44. > :20:47.the early hours of Friday morning, Thursday night, Friday morning, the
:20:48. > :20:51.question of the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland came up
:20:52. > :20:56.and some politicians were rushing to say, we don't want them to have to
:20:57. > :21:04.have guards along the border. Nobody does. But during the campaign,
:21:05. > :21:07.whenever anybody raised the Leave campaigners, including the Northern
:21:08. > :21:11.Ireland secretary, they all said it would be fine, nothing to worry
:21:12. > :21:15.about. You just wonder, how do they know? Obviously it's a question not
:21:16. > :21:22.just for Britain and Ireland but also the EU, as to if you are
:21:23. > :21:25.outside and the Irish Republic is inside. Certainly if you want to
:21:26. > :21:28.stop immigration coming from the rest of the EU it is hard to see how
:21:29. > :21:34.you don't do something to check who is coming in and out. Finally. We
:21:35. > :21:41.have a couple of minutes to talk about this petition, which has been
:21:42. > :21:48.launched, not that long ago. What did yesterday? Only yesterday. How
:21:49. > :21:52.time sometimes doesn't fly... It is on the parliamentary website and it
:21:53. > :21:57.is demanding a second referendum because the majority... There wasn't
:21:58. > :22:00.a sufficient number of people who turned up to vote and therefore it
:22:01. > :22:04.is not a sufficient number of people who voted in favour of leaving,
:22:05. > :22:10.according to the text of this petition. It has, what, 2.5 million?
:22:11. > :22:15.It has images at an alarming rate. Basically it hit about 100,000 in
:22:16. > :22:20.the first few hours, which is the moment it triggers a debate in
:22:21. > :22:28.Parliament. But to have hit 2.5 million within a day or so, for me
:22:29. > :22:33.it feels like a week ago... I had to put one sentence of this in a
:22:34. > :22:38.front-page story in the first filed the story it was 1.6 million. When
:22:39. > :22:42.we went to press it was 2.1. Brian Tomkinson on Twitter says, why don't
:22:43. > :22:49.you report the petition @ mostly by people who don't live in the UK? --
:22:50. > :22:57.as mostly. Wasn't there another petition demanding that London
:22:58. > :23:01.should become a citystate? There was an interesting map of this view was
:23:02. > :23:11.signing it adware. It was primarily in London, Brighton, Oxford,
:23:12. > :23:15.Cambridge. -- and where. A cosmopolitan story. It is
:23:16. > :23:18.interesting. It will get interesting when 80 million sign it and that's
:23:19. > :23:26.more for the people who voted for Brexit. -- 18 William. Here is the
:23:27. > :23:31.map. Thank you to whoever is directing the night! It is even
:23:32. > :23:37.being moved around, so you can look. London is dark red. That means a lot
:23:38. > :23:44.of people have signed it. Oxford apparently, Bristol, maybe Brighton.
:23:45. > :23:54.Yes. They are the places that are signing at a furious rate. But it
:23:55. > :24:02.won't make any difference. Not if we care about democracy. 70 million
:24:03. > :24:09.people... It feels like six months of campaigning and wall-to-wall news
:24:10. > :24:17.coverage. It is slightly indicative of some people who perhaps got a bit
:24:18. > :24:21.of a buzz. There is a guy in my office who voted for Brexit and
:24:22. > :24:26.today he said, economic meltdown does seem a bit worse than I was
:24:27. > :24:30.expecting. Yesterday he was complaining about Project Fear. He
:24:31. > :24:33.heard all of the warnings and didn't think that some of them would come
:24:34. > :24:38.true. Did you see the story about Google? The most common question
:24:39. > :24:43.asked on Google over the last couple of days is, what is the EU? After
:24:44. > :24:50.the referendum. Vote now, search later. Why do any of us bother? Read
:24:51. > :25:03.a paper! Make it the Irish times! The Sunday Times. Thank you, all.
:25:04. > :25:05.Try to get some rest. Lovely to have you. That's it. The weather is next.