09/10/2016

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:00:14. > :00:15.Hello and welcome to our Sunday morning edition of The Papers.

:00:16. > :00:18.With me are the author and journalist Matthew

:00:19. > :00:20.Green and Josie Delap, Home Affairs Correspondent

:00:21. > :00:28.Today's front pages: The Observer leads on turmoil for Donald Trump,

:00:29. > :00:31.as key Republicans withdraw their support after a tape

:00:32. > :00:34.emerged of him making lewd remarks about women.

:00:35. > :00:37.The Sunday Mirror has a special report on the war in Syria,

:00:38. > :00:41.focussing on the story of one little girl whose family has been torn

:00:42. > :00:47.The Mail on Sunday slams what it calls "vulture lawyers",

:00:48. > :00:52.pursuing medical negligence cases against the NHS totalling more

:00:53. > :01:01.In the Sunday Times, a former aide to David Cameron hits

:01:02. > :01:04.out against Theresa May's plans to make companies reveal

:01:05. > :01:07.their number of foreign employees, calling the idea "repugnant".

:01:08. > :01:09.The Sunday Telegraph has news of a "pensions revolution",

:01:10. > :01:11.with savers to be allowed to invest in government

:01:12. > :01:15.And the Sunday Express writes that a "digital" border could be used

:01:16. > :01:18.to curb EU migrants under new plans by the government.

:01:19. > :01:35.There is plenty in the papers this morning. A lot of Donald Trump

:01:36. > :01:41.dominating the headlines. These are all stories about Donald Trump

:01:42. > :01:45.Smucker recorded stories from ten or 11 years ago, about women that he

:01:46. > :01:50.had tried to force his charms upon and failed. These comments are

:01:51. > :01:54.shocking, they are horrible, but they are not at all surprising

:01:55. > :01:58.because they fit with the comments Donald Trump has made in public

:01:59. > :02:03.about women before. Not only about women. No, and what is really

:02:04. > :02:07.striking about this is that this has been the breaking point for a lot of

:02:08. > :02:12.Republicans to come out against him. It is the idea that their daughters,

:02:13. > :02:16.their wives, could be subject to these kinds of comments. The

:02:17. > :02:19.previous, is he has made about Mexicans and Muslims have not been

:02:20. > :02:26.enough to push them, but once it gets a little bit closer to home,

:02:27. > :02:30.that has done it. Matthew, do you think this will be the thing that is

:02:31. > :02:34.his downfall? It does feel a little bit like the lightning bolt that we

:02:35. > :02:41.have all been waiting for. It is almost as if the arm of karma has

:02:42. > :02:45.almost levelled him. There is a sense from the states that this

:02:46. > :02:51.could almost be it. This incredible haemorrhage of senior Republicans,

:02:52. > :02:58.all lining up, realising which way the tide is turning and jumping

:02:59. > :03:02.ship. It does have the feel of a bit of a horror film, in that sense of

:03:03. > :03:07.we have banished the beast, but suddenly in the final minutes, it

:03:08. > :03:10.comes back. It is too early to relax, but this could be the end of

:03:11. > :03:15.Donald Trump. He says he is not standing down, but even if he does

:03:16. > :03:19.it is too late because the ballot has already begun. Exactly, the

:03:20. > :03:23.papers have been printed with his name on and people have started

:03:24. > :03:32.voting already. Some people have said they will be writing in his

:03:33. > :03:35.vice president's candidate name on the ticket, but it is hard to see

:03:36. > :03:39.how they could get rid of him. Legally that would be a nightmare,

:03:40. > :03:45.and he has insisted he will not stand down. At the end of the day,

:03:46. > :03:48.they chose him. Absolutely, and there are still a lot of people who

:03:49. > :03:54.support him, and a lot of people don't feel this is sufficient to

:03:55. > :03:57.make them vote for a Hillary Clinton, who is widely disliked. I

:03:58. > :04:02.think the real question will be whether white women, particularly

:04:03. > :04:08.those without college degrees, whether this will be enough to turn

:04:09. > :04:15.them against Trump. He has alienated so many groups of people, he has to

:04:16. > :04:18.win that vote overwhelmingly. The second debate is overnight tonight,

:04:19. > :04:25.I think we are all looking to see whether Trump will break his promise

:04:26. > :04:29.and start to talk about Bill. This is it, how low will he go? Judging

:04:30. > :04:37.by what we have seen so far, pretty low. Again, the political climate is

:04:38. > :04:40.so polarised in the US, and that is something that even reading about

:04:41. > :04:45.it, watching it on TV, it is difficult to grasp quite how wide

:04:46. > :04:49.the Gulf is. It is almost as if it doesn't matter what he says or does,

:04:50. > :04:53.too certainly his hard-core base. What is said in the debate now

:04:54. > :04:57.probably won't swing very many votes. Are we seeing a political

:04:58. > :05:03.trend across the world? Yes, absolutely. People rejecting the

:05:04. > :05:09.establishment, of people feeling that globalisation in the more open

:05:10. > :05:14.world that we have come to see as quite normal has not benefited them,

:05:15. > :05:19.people who perhaps whose skills are no longer quite as applicable in the

:05:20. > :05:24.changing workforce. I think this is very close to a lot of the feelings

:05:25. > :05:28.that people have about Brexit, and feelings in other European countries

:05:29. > :05:32.where more right-wing parties who are against immigration are becoming

:05:33. > :05:36.more popular. Yes, and it is easy to get so caught up in the lyric

:05:37. > :05:45.details of the characters of these almost cartoonlike, that we forget

:05:46. > :05:49.that there are these swathes of people who do feel that they have

:05:50. > :05:54.been failed by the system, and the kind of psychology that Trump is

:05:55. > :05:58.exhibiting is resonating with huge rubbers of people. It is something

:05:59. > :06:03.we do need to be looking at. He keeps having these disasters that

:06:04. > :06:08.you think are finally going to sell him, and yet he keeps coming back. I

:06:09. > :06:11.think that is because he represents something different from this

:06:12. > :06:15.political establishment that so many people feel has failed them. I am

:06:16. > :06:22.going to put you both on the spot. Will he win? Probably not. Is there

:06:23. > :06:28.a danger that by somehow saying he won't win... I am not going to say

:06:29. > :06:31.anything! You are on the fence. We will come back to that after the

:06:32. > :06:35.election. Let's move on to the Times and an

:06:36. > :06:40.interesting story. This is a stinging letter from Steve Hilton,

:06:41. > :06:44.the former policy chief at number ten under David Cameron in response

:06:45. > :06:47.to Theresa May and Amber Rudd's comments at the Tory party

:06:48. > :06:53.conference about foreign workers needing to be registered, or firms

:06:54. > :06:57.needing to list their number is of foreign workers. He has come out

:06:58. > :07:03.raging against the devices, repugnant and insanely Eurocrat it

:07:04. > :07:08.ideas that the Conservatives are putting forward at the moment. He

:07:09. > :07:13.described Theresa May's proposals as incompetent and irresponsible. He is

:07:14. > :07:18.not holding back on is he? He says it seems there is a darkness at the

:07:19. > :07:23.heart of Theresa May's government, which could leave a lasting stain on

:07:24. > :07:27.the Tory party. This is a very difficult area, isn't it? Particular

:07:28. > :07:34.in the wake of the Brexit vote. How do you sort it out, but sort it out

:07:35. > :07:40.in a way that will suit everybody? Unless you can perform some sort of

:07:41. > :07:43.mysterious process of turning lead into gold, that isn't going to

:07:44. > :07:48.happen. There is not an easy outcome for this. Does an article like this

:07:49. > :07:54.make any difference at the end of the day? I am not sure it does, but

:07:55. > :07:58.he raises interesting point in it. He says that everybody is now

:07:59. > :08:02.talking about hard Brexit against soft Brexit. He campaigned to leave

:08:03. > :08:05.the EU, so it is particularly striking that he is responding so

:08:06. > :08:09.harshly to their proposals. But his point is that we should not be

:08:10. > :08:14.talking about a hard or soft Brexit, but rather an open or a closed

:08:15. > :08:17.Britain. He thinks you could have a version of leaving the EU which

:08:18. > :08:21.still said Britain is open for business, we want to trade with the

:08:22. > :08:24.rest of the world, we want the best and brightest immigrants into

:08:25. > :08:29.Britain, we want to stay part of this globalised economy and world.

:08:30. > :08:36.We want everything. Indeed, and as has been said... It reflects that

:08:37. > :08:40.wider fear that in some ways we saw out of the tone that was struck at

:08:41. > :08:45.the Conservative Party conference last week, it was very much aimed at

:08:46. > :08:50.a particular segment of the Conservative Party, and there is a

:08:51. > :08:52.fear that with this huge, historical moment for Britain, essentially we

:08:53. > :08:56.have a leadership that is pandering to a narrow party political base at

:08:57. > :09:00.the expense of the national interest. I think that is what

:09:01. > :09:04.Stephen Hilton, as a former adviser to David Cameron, is really

:09:05. > :09:08.hammering home. He realises how damaging this can be in terms of the

:09:09. > :09:12.negotiation because it really riled up the European leaders who think

:09:13. > :09:19.why should we make Britain's exit any easier? The Mail on Sunday on

:09:20. > :09:27.page five, Hammond's fears of able in a china shop behaviour of the

:09:28. > :09:35.three Brexit ears. This is a chance for Philip Hammond, he is clearly at

:09:36. > :09:39.war with his colleagues, Davids, forest and Fox. He sees them

:09:40. > :09:45.behaving as a collective bull in a china shop, wrecking our chances of

:09:46. > :09:50.negotiating a graceful exit through inflammatory statements and

:09:51. > :09:54.aggressive remarks. Clearly, there is a big divide in the Cabinet,

:09:55. > :09:58.there is no doubt about that. Frankly, who is going to disagree

:09:59. > :10:01.with him? We have seen these sorts of statements coming out of these

:10:02. > :10:08.politicians, Boris talking about having the cake and eating it. In

:10:09. > :10:10.other words, squaring access to the single market, whilst still

:10:11. > :10:18.controlling immigration, something which European leaders won't accept.

:10:19. > :10:21.There is a sense that a part of the Cabinet has succumbed to a kind of

:10:22. > :10:26.entrance and, almost magical thinking, about what might be

:10:27. > :10:29.politically possible, which anyone who is observing this from a wider

:10:30. > :10:35.perspective is able to see this will run into a hard reality. Philip

:10:36. > :10:37.Hammond is interesting because he is pushing the point that, while

:10:38. > :10:42.Britain may have voted for Brexit, or at least a portion of Britain

:10:43. > :10:45.they did for it, what they did not vote for was to become poorer and to

:10:46. > :10:52.have their lives made harder by this. What seems very clear from a

:10:53. > :10:55.lot of the proposals that the Brexiteers are pushing for is that

:10:56. > :11:00.that is exactly what would happen, and he is trying to retain their

:11:01. > :11:04.thinking, rather than this pie in the sky thought that we can have all

:11:05. > :11:10.the pie, all the cake, and no one. As on anything. Interestingly, the

:11:11. > :11:13.way it is panning out politically within the parties, and the division

:11:14. > :11:20.is really being laid bare. It raises the question of whether the party is

:11:21. > :11:25.going to be capable of navigating the path ahead. This monumentally

:11:26. > :11:34.complex, fraught exercise, with so many layers, so many complexities.

:11:35. > :11:37.Just as the starting gun is being fired, this level of acrimony and

:11:38. > :11:42.division within the Cabinet does not bode well. While we are talking

:11:43. > :11:52.about Brexit, let's talk a bit more about it and go to the Observer.

:11:53. > :11:55.This is a story that there is a cross-party group of MPs who are

:11:56. > :12:00.saying that Britain might have voted yes to leave the EU in the

:12:01. > :12:03.referendum, but that Parliament should not be shut out of this

:12:04. > :12:08.process, and that there should be a vote going forward as we negotiate

:12:09. > :12:12.the terms of that deal. This really does, this is one of the difficult

:12:13. > :12:15.questions in all of the Brexit negotiations, the extent to which

:12:16. > :12:18.Parliament should have a say on the terms to which we should leave,

:12:19. > :12:24.whether the Prime Minister can simply trigger Article 50 and then

:12:25. > :12:29.go her own way, and this is a very knotty question, British democracy

:12:30. > :12:33.and that it is the four MPs, and how much they respond to their voter's

:12:34. > :12:39.concerns. We seem to have a lot of questions at the moment! Yes,

:12:40. > :12:45.exactly. This is obviously going to be what we talk about for the next

:12:46. > :12:50.five years, minimum. It goes back to the question of democracy. There was

:12:51. > :12:52.the referendum, but in the Conservative manifesto there is a

:12:53. > :12:56.commitment to the single market, so how do you square those two outcomes

:12:57. > :13:02.question mark it also raises a question for MPs. There are lots of

:13:03. > :13:05.MPs who don't think that we should leave the EU. Or, at least, who

:13:06. > :13:08.think that if we do we should do it in the most minimal way. They think

:13:09. > :13:14.that would be the best possible deal for Britain. But they have voters

:13:15. > :13:17.who don't agree with them, and it raises a question for MPs, to what

:13:18. > :13:20.extent do you simply respond to voters concerned and do what they

:13:21. > :13:24.are telling you to do, even if it seems to be not in their best

:13:25. > :13:28.interests, and to what extent do you have to stand up and say you have

:13:29. > :13:32.elected me to make the decisions on your behalf, and actually I don't

:13:33. > :13:36.think this is the right thing to do. Also, one of the interesting parts

:13:37. > :13:43.of the whole story, particularly over the last week, comets coming

:13:44. > :13:49.from other European leaders, that is being focused on Britain at the

:13:50. > :13:52.moment. Absolutely, the EU is an organisation that faces a lot of

:13:53. > :13:55.challenges at the moment, and has over recent years. It is hard to

:13:56. > :14:00.imagine that they would want Britain to leave the EU in a storm of glory

:14:01. > :14:03.and have a fantastic situation outside the EU, when there are so

:14:04. > :14:07.many divisions with other countries. I read one comment this week which

:14:08. > :14:12.said what sort of organisation is it that bullies and one who decides

:14:13. > :14:17.they don't want to be in it any more? Yes, exactly. Officials have

:14:18. > :14:21.become very clear, the tone has hardened measurably from Brussels

:14:22. > :14:25.and other European capitals since the Conservative Party conference,

:14:26. > :14:31.they want to make us pay. We keep hearing from the Brexit side that

:14:32. > :14:35.they need our market, they have got to cut as a deal, but at the end of

:14:36. > :14:40.the day, we export 50% of our exports to the EU, and they export

:14:41. > :14:44.less than 10% to us, so our hand is not as strong as some of the ten

:14:45. > :14:47.three macros in the Cabinet may wish.

:14:48. > :14:51.Right, let's move from Brexit to Syria.

:14:52. > :14:56.The mirror, and this story from Syria. The pictures coming out of

:14:57. > :15:06.Syria at the moment are just horrendous. Yes, we have become so

:15:07. > :15:10.immersed in politics that this story on it is a once in a generation

:15:11. > :15:16.story in a sense of what is happening in Aleppo at the moment,

:15:17. > :15:22.it is just sitting in the inside pages... It is a victim of being

:15:23. > :15:27.around for a long time, five years or more, and it is a story that is

:15:28. > :15:35.constantly around. What is happening in Aleppo now is on another scale.

:15:36. > :15:38.Russia has essentially repeated what it did in the early 90s, smashing

:15:39. > :15:44.civilian neighbourhoods with air strikes. Smashing them into

:15:45. > :15:48.submission with no respect for any proportionality or rules of war, and

:15:49. > :15:54.getting away with it. And nobody seeming to have a solution. No, and

:15:55. > :15:59.I wonder if that is part of why we have seen, whether it is coverage go

:16:00. > :16:05.down, or actual political talk about Syria quietened down because it

:16:06. > :16:10.feels like such a hopeless story, and the idea of coming to any

:16:11. > :16:14.solution, we had a ceasefire but that collapsed within days of aid

:16:15. > :16:19.workers being killed. It seems so impossible. Five years ago we were

:16:20. > :16:25.talking about removing President Assad, but he is still there, he has

:16:26. > :16:31.got a lot of support, and it is the civilians who are suffering. Yes,

:16:32. > :16:38.and we are locked into this wider escalation of conflict with Russia,

:16:39. > :16:43.and all across the West now we have this revelation in the US just

:16:44. > :16:46.yesterday that the government has been accusing the Russians of

:16:47. > :16:52.hacking e-mails and trying to manipulate the election. We have

:16:53. > :16:57.seen all kinds of propaganda campaigns launched by the Russian

:16:58. > :17:00.government in Western countries. There is something very sinister

:17:01. > :17:05.taking place, and in Aleppo we are seeing the sharpest end. Not to

:17:06. > :17:08.bring it back to trump again, but the horizontal Syria and the

:17:09. > :17:12.intractability of the conflict and the complexities of it just remind

:17:13. > :17:18.you what an extraordinarily important decision it is as to who

:17:19. > :17:21.is president of America, because the foreign policy is one area in which

:17:22. > :17:23.the president does have a lot of power. Dealing with this kind of

:17:24. > :17:29.conflict is what we are talking about. Interesting to see. Let's go

:17:30. > :17:37.to the final paper, it is page five of the Times. Rising sea levels are

:17:38. > :17:47.turning mounted into hills. What is happening? This is supposed to be a

:17:48. > :17:55.light story now, but rising sea levels are forcing some surveys to

:17:56. > :18:11.consider reducing smaller mountains to hill status. What is the cut-off?

:18:12. > :18:14.2000 feet, apparently. It includes some in Scotland and Wales, so we

:18:15. > :18:20.could see this recalibration. Which for hill walkers who want to tick

:18:21. > :18:24.off all of those in Scotland and England and Wales, this will really

:18:25. > :18:30.affect their tally. Not wanting to put a dampener on the programme as

:18:31. > :18:36.we draw an end to the show, but the chief scientist has warned that this

:18:37. > :18:38.year has had the hottest ten bridges for 150,000 years. Dash-macro

:18:39. > :18:45.hottest temperatures. We have a global crisis. We might all be

:18:46. > :18:51.living on top of these hills at some point. Newspapers treat climate

:18:52. > :18:55.change as a nice white story to have a smile about, but anyone who reads

:18:56. > :18:59.the report on this needs to be terrified. We are behind the sofa

:19:00. > :19:05.now on that one. Thank you both very much. Thank you to our guests, and

:19:06. > :19:08.don't forget, during the week we look at the front pages at 10:40pm

:19:09. > :19:24.here on BC news. Goodbye. Hello, still no great dramas to

:19:25. > :19:26.report about the British Isles