10/10/2016

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:00:12. > :00:14.Hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

:00:15. > :00:20.With me are Fay Schlesinger, Head of News at the Times

:00:21. > :00:26.and the New York Times reporter Dan Bilefsky.

:00:27. > :00:31.Let's have a look at some of the front pages. Starting with The

:00:32. > :00:36.Guardian, it leads what the US presidential debate and the decision

:00:37. > :00:40.by Paul Ryan the Republican party's most senior elected politician not

:00:41. > :00:43.to campaign for Donald Trump. The Financial Times said his stance is a

:00:44. > :00:49.clear signal that Republican leaders have given up hope of Mr Trump

:00:50. > :00:54.winning the White House. The eye paper reports on a pole that gives

:00:55. > :00:58.Mrs Clinton a 14 point lead. The Telegraph says the BBC's new

:00:59. > :01:05.regulator will tell the corporation its falling short in its duty to

:01:06. > :01:12.reflect modern Britain by failing to put all the women on screen. The

:01:13. > :01:16.Treasury could lose up to 66 billion pounds a year in tax revenues

:01:17. > :01:21.according to The Times. One of Britain's biggest exporters is to

:01:22. > :01:25.quit the business lobby the CBI in protest at its stance against

:01:26. > :01:29.Brexit, according to The Daily Mail. Lots of talk about Brexit. We are

:01:30. > :01:36.going to get to that later. First it is The Donald. Six times on the

:01:37. > :01:46.front page of The Guardian. Grimacing, pouting... A lot of

:01:47. > :01:52.orange. It very orange man. Now, big Republican figure Paul Ryan. He's

:01:53. > :01:57.decided he's not going to campaign with Mr Trump and he's not going to

:01:58. > :02:00.support him. He's not withdrawing his endorsement, interestingly, but

:02:01. > :02:04.he is saying you are going to lose the White House, I don't care about

:02:05. > :02:08.you now it's about the house on the Senate. You could argue there's a

:02:09. > :02:15.sense of rats leaving a sinking ship. He is a big figure, he's been

:02:16. > :02:18.critical of Trump before. This is not his right-hand man that has

:02:19. > :02:25.abandoned him but he's a senior figure. I guess it is what people

:02:26. > :02:29.are saying is his watershed moment of this quite horrible video talking

:02:30. > :02:33.about grabbing women and treating women as second-class citizens, even

:02:34. > :02:38.making comments about his own daughter. Paul Ryan said, enough is

:02:39. > :02:42.enough. He hasn't said I believe others should be leaving him, he's

:02:43. > :02:46.leaving it to other people. Ryan is saying it's up to you what you

:02:47. > :02:51.decide. Doing it in that measured way might have more impact. We've

:02:52. > :02:55.seen others abandon Trump in more dramatic ways. This is quite serious

:02:56. > :03:00.and I guess there is that growing sense that it is becoming serious.

:03:01. > :03:04.Dan, practically what does this mean? Does it mean money that might

:03:05. > :03:09.have gone to Trump from the Republican party is actually now

:03:10. > :03:13.going to go to other races further down the ticket? Firstly, I think

:03:14. > :03:17.one has to say this is a huge hammer blow for Trump. When you have the

:03:18. > :03:21.highest elected Republican official in the land not withdrawing his

:03:22. > :03:25.support but saying he will not defend Trump, he's effectively

:03:26. > :03:29.ceding the presidency to Hillary. That's a huge psychological blow

:03:30. > :03:33.after Trump has had one of the worst weeks in his campaign. In terms of

:03:34. > :03:38.the financial effect, there was a conference call today between Mr

:03:39. > :03:42.Ryan and some of his Republican caucus and quite a few hardliners

:03:43. > :03:46.were defending Trump and lashing out at Ryan for abandoning him at the

:03:47. > :03:50.11th hour. It's not clear whether there will be a huge migration of

:03:51. > :03:54.financing at this point. There was some discussion in the last couple

:03:55. > :03:57.of days. At the end of the day Trump isn't going anywhere and it's too

:03:58. > :04:03.late in the campaign for that dynamic to change. One can expect

:04:04. > :04:07.that in recent days with Republicans clawing back their support that they

:04:08. > :04:11.could be some financial ramifications. A really key question

:04:12. > :04:17.is whether somebody with political clout like Ryan takes voters with

:04:18. > :04:20.him or not. We saw it a bit during Brexit in this country and we are

:04:21. > :04:27.seeing it in the American campaign. This core of voters who support

:04:28. > :04:31.Trump, a figure has been put at 30% of would-be Republican supporters

:04:32. > :04:35.who are so dedicated to Trump that the more you criticise him the

:04:36. > :04:40.harder they dig in. That's what they like. Some of them will be thinking

:04:41. > :04:44.I say those things at home, I don't really mean them. It's so different

:04:45. > :04:49.from when we sit in this country looking at America and thinking, how

:04:50. > :04:54.can somebody think that this tallies with what could be a potential

:04:55. > :05:09.presidential material? Those are not the people he needs to convince. The

:05:10. > :05:18.die-hard Trumpists will support him. It did not swing the pendulum. Let's

:05:19. > :05:24.move to the i Paper. Presidential prospects damaged after the Speaker

:05:25. > :05:34.of the house says he went campaign. The bottom line is, while they see

:05:35. > :05:39.the White House has gone, and that means potentially two pics of

:05:40. > :05:44.Supreme Court justices over the next four years gone to the Republican

:05:45. > :05:51.side. They are particularly concerned about the Senate going the

:05:52. > :05:56.way of the Democratic party as well. And that is something that not only

:05:57. > :06:00.will, as far as legislation is concerned, cause problems for the

:06:01. > :06:05.Republican party, it means that they cannot get their agenda of the

:06:06. > :06:09.ground. Yes. Regardless of the outcome of this election now, it's

:06:10. > :06:13.going to be so fascinating going forward. The way that we will see

:06:14. > :06:17.America behave going forward. We don't have this division in Britain.

:06:18. > :06:22.It's a totally different system in the States. In terms of the idea of

:06:23. > :06:29.a proper hammer blow and looking at the polls, you have now seen an 11%

:06:30. > :06:33.difference between Clinton and Trump going forward which shows this idea

:06:34. > :06:38.of a hammer blow might be starting to make the difference. The

:06:39. > :06:42.prediction seems to be that Trump is going to lose but he's still on the

:06:43. > :06:49.ballot and as long as he's on the ballot he win. How does he come back

:06:50. > :06:56.from this, Dan? If you were advising him, what would you say? The thing

:06:57. > :07:01.is for him to come back... Or is it too late? In the run-up to the

:07:02. > :07:06.Brexit vote in this country the polls showed Remain ahead and then

:07:07. > :07:18.we woke up the next morning shocked that Brexit had one. In terms of

:07:19. > :07:24.Trump changing the rules of the game at this point, he has a particular

:07:25. > :07:29.personality that has shown itself in new 22 advice and immutable to the

:07:30. > :07:35.polls. He is who he is. It's hard to see how he could have this kind of

:07:36. > :07:39.huge cataclysmic metamorphosis with one month left before the ballots. I

:07:40. > :07:45.find it hard to see unless you give him a lobotomy or shock treatment

:07:46. > :07:49.that he is going to change in a viable way. That is his attraction

:07:50. > :07:55.to his core constituency. Whether that's enough to win is a whole

:07:56. > :07:59.other matter. This type of him bragging about his groping threatens

:08:00. > :08:06.to energise and decided millennial voters and younger women who might

:08:07. > :08:13.get off their seats and go and vote because they find the idea of a

:08:14. > :08:18.Trump presidency anathema. I watched quite a lot of the debate. Hillary

:08:19. > :08:23.didn't really land any massive blows. It didn't feel obvious that

:08:24. > :08:29.she had one, in spite of the most horrific video having come out. If

:08:30. > :08:33.you're turning away from Trump and looking to Clinton for inspiration

:08:34. > :08:37.it doesn't feel like it's there. That's the problem, isn't it? These

:08:38. > :08:41.are two of the most unpopular candidates in the history of the

:08:42. > :08:45.presidency. Hillary is a dreadful candidate, there's no question about

:08:46. > :08:52.it. She's not a good candidate and she has to have a narrative beyond

:08:53. > :08:56.not being Trump. We spoke to a lot of undecided voters today including

:08:57. > :09:02.many women and my impression is that there is such a viscerally strong

:09:03. > :09:07.reaction among women to his groping and over nasty sexism, and also the

:09:08. > :09:12.fact American politics has become like a literal mud wrestling reality

:09:13. > :09:16.game show that is so unpresidential and out of sync with the kind of

:09:17. > :09:22.decorum of the modern American presidency, that there is a backlash

:09:23. > :09:26.fermenting among voters and not just Hillary supporters. Some people who

:09:27. > :09:30.might be in favour of Trump are now thinking maybe this guy isn't so

:09:31. > :09:33.presidential. There's no doubt people are tired of dynastic

:09:34. > :09:38.politics, they are tired of the Clintons. She herself has admitted

:09:39. > :09:43.she's not very effective at connecting with people on a human

:09:44. > :09:53.level. Anything can happen. Absolutely. The Times, hard Brexit

:09:54. > :10:02.could cost ?66 billion a year. Just to put this in context, the

:10:03. > :10:08.projected revenues for Britain for 2016-17 R ?716 billion. It's nearly

:10:09. > :10:11.one tenth. This is contained in a Treasury document which has been

:10:12. > :10:16.linked to us. It's what has been given to ministers, when they are

:10:17. > :10:21.talking about what is Brexit going to look like, this is worse case

:10:22. > :10:25.scenario. This is the idea we come out of the negotiations, haven't

:10:26. > :10:28.sorted out any trade deals and go straight onto the WTO tariff. That

:10:29. > :10:34.is worse case and it probably won't be that bad but they still put the

:10:35. > :10:38.possibilities from a loss of ?38 billion to ?66 billion a year. That

:10:39. > :10:41.is the idea we become less attractive for trading, that foreign

:10:42. > :10:45.investment doesn't come in. We haven't seen all the details but I

:10:46. > :10:49.think what's interesting in this debate between hard and soft Brexit

:10:50. > :10:54.is your seeing the dividing lines we saw in the run-up to Brexit and it's

:10:55. > :11:03.getting a bit nasty. Is this the same document? Yes. They haven't

:11:04. > :11:08.changed it at all. Does it have more voracity now that it's been leaked

:11:09. > :11:17.from a Brexit government as opposed to from a Remain government? It's

:11:18. > :11:22.the same thing. The pro-hard Brexit people, Liam Fox's ilk, will argue

:11:23. > :11:30.this is scaremongering, this is putting figures out there that are

:11:31. > :11:35.worst-case scenarios. I think it's starting to... The dividing lines

:11:36. > :11:42.are rearing their ugly head again. Dan, is this project fear or is this

:11:43. > :11:46.Project reality? Now that Brexit is, or at least triggering Article 50 is

:11:47. > :11:50.five months away... My impression is that this country is experiencing a

:11:51. > :11:57.wake-up call where there was a lot of unreality about the Brexit vote.

:11:58. > :12:01.May was waffling about her real plan and now the country has woken up to

:12:02. > :12:05.the fact Brexit is going to happen, the pound has died, prices for

:12:06. > :12:11.importers are going to go up. Prices of goods are going to go up for

:12:12. > :12:15.consumers, unemployment could increase and suddenly thinking the

:12:16. > :12:22.future economy is not looking so rosy. There is go straight onto The

:12:23. > :12:27.Daily Mail. JCB tycoon quits anti-Brexit CBI. One of Britain's

:12:28. > :12:31.biggest exporters is to quit the CBI in protest at its stance against

:12:32. > :12:35.Brexit. The CBI is saying it's going to cost us a lot of money, the

:12:36. > :12:43.Treasury is backing that but this man is leaving the CBI. This is Lord

:12:44. > :12:47.Bamford, Tory donor and a very pro-Brexit in the run-up to Brexit.

:12:48. > :12:52.He wrote all his workers in the run-up to say we should be voting

:12:53. > :12:56.Brexit, Brexit is the way this country will succeed. It's not that

:12:57. > :13:01.surprising that his company would quit the CBI. The CBI in The Times

:13:02. > :13:05.this morning, we had an interview with the head of the CBI saying the

:13:06. > :13:10.proposal from the Home Secretary last week on foreign workers, this

:13:11. > :13:15.is the idea businesses would have to identify foreign workers, it was a

:13:16. > :13:19.terrible policy, divisive. Almost a suggestion of it being racist and

:13:20. > :13:24.anti-business. Again this is dividing lines and you can feel, The

:13:25. > :13:28.Daily Mail was a paperback came out for Brexit, and you can feel there

:13:29. > :13:31.is a drive of saying we need to put our foot down, we need to have the

:13:32. > :13:37.Brexit that we really wanted which was outside the single market. The

:13:38. > :13:43.Times was Remain. Yes. It's clear from that headline! It's great to

:13:44. > :13:46.see you both. Thank you for joining us.

:13:47. > :13:49.Don't forget all the front pages are online on the BBC News website

:13:50. > :13:51.where you can read a detailed review of the papers.

:13:52. > :13:54.It's all there for you, seven days a week at bbc.co.uk/papers

:13:55. > :13:57.and you can see us there too, with each night's edition

:13:58. > :14:00.of The Papers being posted on the page shortly