22/10/2016

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:00:13. > :00:16.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

:00:17. > :00:21.With me are the Political Commentator, Jo Phillips

:00:22. > :00:23.and the Political Editor of the Sunday People, Nigel Nelson.

:00:24. > :00:36.We start with the Observer that leads with a claim that the banks

:00:37. > :00:41.will be locating outside the EU next year over Brexit fears. It welcomes

:00:42. > :00:47.the arrival of child refugees from Calais, some under the landmark DUB

:00:48. > :00:51.amendment which helps children. The Times welcomes the refugees but

:00:52. > :00:57.their main story is a report from Louise Callaghan of the Iraqi

:00:58. > :01:02.mission to liberate Mosul from IS. The situation in Calais dominates

:01:03. > :01:05.The Sunday Telegraph but it claims the Home Office ignored warnings

:01:06. > :01:10.such as age checks surrounding the arrivals. The Express claims to have

:01:11. > :01:15.an exclusive, a row between Prince Charles and Prince Andrew over the

:01:16. > :01:20.official roles of Andrew's daughters, Beatrice and Eugeneny.

:01:21. > :01:27.Jo and Nigel, good to have you both with us. The Observer, leading banks

:01:28. > :01:31.set to pull out of Brexit early next year. Nigel? They are talking about

:01:32. > :01:36.Britain's biggest banks are going to pull out so we must get rid of the

:01:37. > :01:40.idea there'll be a NatWest on the high street or Halifax or something

:01:41. > :01:43.like that, it's not that. The issue is over passporting and what is

:01:44. > :01:48.happening is that if you have got a foreign bank located in London, it

:01:49. > :01:52.has access to the EU market. Now we've got a warning from Anthony

:01:53. > :01:56.Brown who is the boss of the British Bankers' Association, saying that

:01:57. > :02:00.these banks are likely to pull out in the New Year and reason being is

:02:01. > :02:04.they won't be able to get access to Europe. We don't know any of these

:02:05. > :02:08.things yet, it's all part of the Brexit deal. So it might be a bit

:02:09. > :02:14.premature to rush away in a couple of months' time. But it's a serious

:02:15. > :02:18.issue. If you are an American bank, the ones that I know have thought

:02:19. > :02:21.about, look, it's obviously easier for us to base ourselves in

:02:22. > :02:24.Frankfurt, actually they don't want to live there, they want to live in

:02:25. > :02:28.London, if they can't live in London they'll live in New York, so that's

:02:29. > :02:33.probably where they'll end up. But, you are talking about 70,000 jobs at

:02:34. > :02:37.stake according to the Observer and an awful lot of money will disappear

:02:38. > :02:40.so it's important we get this deal. What is interesting Jo about this is

:02:41. > :02:46.that, although there's been a lot of general talk about this in the past,

:02:47. > :02:50.Anthony Brown is fairly specific in saying most of the international

:02:51. > :02:53.banks now already have teams asen ed working out which operations they

:02:54. > :02:59.need to move, the date at which to do it and how best to do it, their

:03:00. > :03:06.hands are quivering at the relocate button? Many other businesses are

:03:07. > :03:10.I'm sure already looking at it, whether it's retail or car makers,

:03:11. > :03:17.anybody that we trade with, whether they are based here or not, will

:03:18. > :03:23.have an impact upon them, the costs of living and jobs, an impact on all

:03:24. > :03:29.sorts of things. Probably business is slightly better prepared than

:03:30. > :03:32.Government appears to be. As Nigel says, it seems slightly premature,

:03:33. > :03:37.they are talking about the smaller banks making plans to get out before

:03:38. > :03:46.Christmas. Not much time left! We have still got another two years to

:03:47. > :03:50.go. Is this just lobbyists kind of, you know pushing their client's

:03:51. > :03:56.interests? You know, they are talking about getting a better deal

:03:57. > :04:00.here. Theresa May was in Europe this week and we didn't even start to

:04:01. > :04:04.talk about a deal yet so we are some way down the road before we can work

:04:05. > :04:12.out things like this, which are important things. Because the sky

:04:13. > :04:16.hasn't fallen in just yet, there's almost this, well it will do in a

:04:17. > :04:20.minute, you know, I know it hasn't been the project fear that everybody

:04:21. > :04:25.says, but it's almost like they are trying to talk it up. We are given

:04:26. > :04:28.stage by stage. The idea of a great Repeal Bill, so all European law

:04:29. > :04:32.becomes British law, so we don't have to discuss that, the issue is

:04:33. > :04:35.going to be now trade and it will be trade and the trade-off which is

:04:36. > :04:39.going to be how much free movement we are prepared to accept. But that

:04:40. > :04:43.will be the nub of that. For the banks to rush off before we have

:04:44. > :04:47.even started talking, I think Jo is right, far too premature. Maybe next

:04:48. > :04:50.weekend there'll be even more of this kind of thing as it's

:04:51. > :04:57.Halloween! Let's move on to another story on

:04:58. > :05:03.the front. I don't see what the link is there. Project fear! I see,

:05:04. > :05:08.people dressed up as clowns. That will be an interesting alternative

:05:09. > :05:11.take on Halloween! A photograph of Carrie Mulligan clutching a toy

:05:12. > :05:15.bear, always good for a campaign to have an actor or actress because you

:05:16. > :05:22.get them on the front of the papers, she's a keen supporter of this

:05:23. > :05:25.protest yesterday. This is over Aleppo? The People and the Mirror.

:05:26. > :05:30.This was a Sunday Mirror campaign, we have been working with 15

:05:31. > :05:35.charities and it was a march on Downing Street that Carrie Mulligan

:05:36. > :05:39.spoke at. 200 teddy bears laid there, the purpose of the whole

:05:40. > :05:45.thing was to remind Theresa May and Boris Johnson that children are

:05:46. > :05:49.dying, 200 teddy bears represented the 200 children that have died

:05:50. > :05:53.since the ceasefire came to an end. What the protesters were demanding

:05:54. > :05:56.is, can we just have some action, at the moment we are getting absolutely

:05:57. > :05:59.nothing from the British Government. But what sort of action? Now you

:06:00. > :06:05.come on to the big question, there are two ways of ending this. One is

:06:06. > :06:09.that we allow Putin and Assad to win the war as quickly as possible and

:06:10. > :06:12.bring it to an end. That seems to be unacceptable because too many

:06:13. > :06:19.children would have to die. The second and obviously I'm

:06:20. > :06:22.oversimplifying, is a no-fly zone, preferably negotiated with the

:06:23. > :06:24.Russians but we may have to impose them without negotiation. How would

:06:25. > :06:30.you impose them without troops on the ground? We are talking no-fly

:06:31. > :06:32.zones so you are trying to stop the bombing of Aleppo, stop the children

:06:33. > :06:38.being killed in the awful numbers that it is at the moment. So that

:06:39. > :06:44.means willing to shoot down jets? Yes. Various ideas have come up.

:06:45. > :06:48.Boris Johnson's floated the idea of a no-bomb zone. A no-bomb zone is

:06:49. > :06:53.that if they bomb, we then go and bomb them. That strikes me as more

:06:54. > :06:58.dangerous than a no-fly zone, I mean what are you bombing, you don't

:06:59. > :07:01.quite know. The whole thing is so utterly repugnant that people are

:07:02. > :07:05.living in the most appalling conditions in Aleppo. We are all,

:07:06. > :07:08.you know, talking about it on tele-I haves and radio channels and in

:07:09. > :07:13.newspapers around the world and nobody can do anything sensible to

:07:14. > :07:17.stop it. The argument's got to be if that every time we back down against

:07:18. > :07:21.Putin because we fear World War three, we are not going to do

:07:22. > :07:27.anything and it will be perpetual appeasement. I know that, but I

:07:28. > :07:32.wonder about 200 teddy bears, you know. You start somewhere. It's

:07:33. > :07:35.leading us on to what is happening in Calais because it would be a

:07:36. > :07:38.sweeping generalisation to say the majority of the people there are

:07:39. > :07:43.escaping the war, but a significant number will be and now this question

:07:44. > :07:46.of the child refugees. There is an interesting suggestion that the

:07:47. > :07:50.Government may have shifted its position somewhat on which children

:07:51. > :07:54.can be accommodated in the UK? Interestingly, apparently 50 girls

:07:55. > :07:57.have arrived this evening which I think is the first girls that we

:07:58. > :08:02.have seen, so given that we have been told about the vulnerability of

:08:03. > :08:07.the children in the jungle camp, these are girls who mainly come from

:08:08. > :08:11.Eritrea, and they've been brought here because the people that, or the

:08:12. > :08:14.kids that have come in last week have only been able to come here

:08:15. > :08:21.because they've got relatives in this country. The DUBS amendment

:08:22. > :08:25.after Lord Dubs, what a fantastic thing to do, actually made this

:08:26. > :08:34.amendment so children could have safety. And that is what is

:08:35. > :08:38.happening. So it was girls earlier. You don't have to work out that

:08:39. > :08:44.girls are much more at risk in a place like that. The photo on the

:08:45. > :08:49.front of The Telegraph which is about Calais and the refugee camp

:08:50. > :08:53.issues, and in about 24 hours they'll start to demolish the

:08:54. > :08:58.authorities, queueing for Britain, Nigel, this photo of a group of

:08:59. > :09:03.people lining up to kind of put in their applications basically to be

:09:04. > :09:06.processed? A really unhelpful photograph really because a lot of

:09:07. > :09:11.them don't look like children in that photograph and what the story

:09:12. > :09:16.that goes with it is about is that there were offers made to actually

:09:17. > :09:21.test children to make sure they were children and... In so far as you can

:09:22. > :09:24.possibly do it, yes. Yes, but there were offers from social services

:09:25. > :09:32.departments, these two back to last August and the Government turned it

:09:33. > :09:36.down, you can do it with dental checks, 17EU countries do that as a

:09:37. > :09:41.standard routine to see how old somebody is and it's terribly

:09:42. > :09:46.important it's children we take in, otherwise the public who at the

:09:47. > :09:49.moment are very sympathetic to what is going on there, could change very

:09:50. > :09:53.quickly. There is the legal side of this which is, I think I'm right in

:09:54. > :10:03.saying, that under international agreements, if you are under the age

:10:04. > :10:08.of 18, you cannot be sent back once you come to claim asylum, you cannot

:10:09. > :10:13.be rejected. There is a nice take from this cartoon. This is from

:10:14. > :10:17.Matt. He's genius, there is a coach disappearing in the distance and a

:10:18. > :10:27.sign saying "migrant welcome centre" and on the back of bus it says

:10:28. > :10:31."children on board" (apparently). That is absolutely the issue to the

:10:32. > :10:37.story. Let's move on then to our next story which is the Sunday

:10:38. > :10:40.Times. I was blown up and trapped by Isis guns says reporter Louise

:10:41. > :10:46.Callaghan, part of the operation, one of the dread word embedded

:10:47. > :10:49.reporters travelling with the troops who're beginning the assault on

:10:50. > :10:53.Mosul? Yes. As anyone can see from this

:10:54. > :10:59.photograph, she's sitting there with her hands over her mouth looking in

:11:00. > :11:06.utter horror at what's happening. She's taking evasive action in a

:11:07. > :11:11.Humvee as Iraqi troops pound in Mosul. It's standard fare which

:11:12. > :11:15.isn't to denigrate it at all. It's nasty and frightening, but I think

:11:16. > :11:20.we all know it's been going on for six days now. Soon to move into its

:11:21. > :11:27.seventh day. It's what happens afterwards. It's a nasty Basel but

:11:28. > :11:32.what happens next? Contested part of Iraq, very close to the Kurdish

:11:33. > :11:48.autonomous region, so there's pressures there. Absolutely and they

:11:49. > :11:53.have already said they won't... Big stakes. A surprising thing was

:11:54. > :11:57.hearing from the aid agency in the course of the week that people by

:11:58. > :12:01.their thousands were fleeing into Syria to escape expected violence in

:12:02. > :12:04.Mosul. Yes. When you see reports like this, I think that the

:12:05. > :12:08.temptation for a journalist on the ground is to describe the

:12:09. > :12:13.experiences they're going through. It's a brave thing to be going out

:12:14. > :12:17.there and doing the kind of thing that Louise Callaghan is doing. Yes.

:12:18. > :12:22.Also we know how dangerous the whole thing is. There are reports coming

:12:23. > :12:27.out that 284 men and women who were human shields have now been executed

:12:28. > :12:31.by Isis. You are dealing here with a really, really nasty enemy, so yes,

:12:32. > :12:36.you would flee anywhere even Syria, just to get away from them. Let's,

:12:37. > :12:40.as our little and finally, this quite fun story at the bottom.

:12:41. > :12:46.Number Ten spin chiefs romantic blunder. It's a cautionary tale, Jo?

:12:47. > :12:51.Yes. Not so much about having flings but about being careful with your

:12:52. > :12:58.mobile phone? Yes, it's not about having a fling at all actually. It's

:12:59. > :13:06.about Sir Craig Oliver, late to Downing Street, former spin doctor

:13:07. > :13:10.to David Cameron. He had sent a text to his then girlfriend who had come

:13:11. > :13:18.into a meeting looking a bit flustered and he sent a text saying,

:13:19. > :13:23."you look shattered X, X, X," but he'd sent it to more than his

:13:24. > :13:28.girlfriend, it had gone to fellow campaign chiefs, so everybody around

:13:29. > :13:33.the table, everybody sitting there, phones vibrating and it had gone to

:13:34. > :13:39.the entire WhatsApp group of the campaign group, but, you know, these

:13:40. > :13:47.things happen. His secret love wasn't secret much longer. Spin your

:13:48. > :13:49.way out of that one. People put back on the app "you don't look so good

:13:50. > :13:56.yourself, mate". Thank you Nigel and Jo,

:13:57. > :14:01.you'll both be back at 11.30 for another look at the stories

:14:02. > :14:04.making the news tomorrow.