14/02/2017

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:00:19. > :00:22.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

:00:23. > :00:25.With me are Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser at Arbuthnot

:00:26. > :00:27.Banking Group, and John Rentoul, political columnist

:00:28. > :00:29.Tomorrow's front pages, starting with...

:00:30. > :00:31.The Metro leads with the assassination of the North Korean

:00:32. > :00:43.leader's half brother at Kuala Lumpur airport,

:00:44. > :00:45.The Daily Telegraph reports on how an expected rise in business

:00:46. > :00:49.rates might hit the NHS, saying health trusts

:00:50. > :00:59.The NHS is on the front of the 'i' too, they have an exclusive

:01:00. > :01:00.investigation into the future of emergency care -

:01:01. > :01:03.claiming dozens of A E units could close.

:01:04. > :01:05.House prices are soaring, according to the Daily Express.

:01:06. > :01:10.The paper says investing in property is the best way to save.

:01:11. > :01:12.Ukip leader Paul Nuttall has questions to answer,

:01:13. > :01:15.says the Guardian, after he admitted he did not lose 'close

:01:16. > :01:17.personal friends' in the Hillsborough disaster -

:01:18. > :01:23.The Daily Mail is angry with ministers who they say

:01:24. > :01:25.are betraying their campaign to crack down on plastic

:01:26. > :01:44.Hopefully we will get to that later, but we will start with the "i". 24

:01:45. > :01:49.A units face closure. It is claiming that dozens of casualty

:01:50. > :01:54.departments are marked for closure or downgrading despite record

:01:55. > :01:59.overcrowding. I like the way it said that bosses were doing this to

:02:00. > :02:05.concentrate specialist services, and they thought it might save lives. It

:02:06. > :02:08.is a wonderful rationalisation. They are under more pressure on probably

:02:09. > :02:15.need more funding, but this brings in the whole question of how you get

:02:16. > :02:19.extra funding into the NHS. It already has ?120 billion. It is time

:02:20. > :02:24.to think about other forms of finance, whether it is a social

:02:25. > :02:30.insurance system or people spending more on their own health. I think it

:02:31. > :02:35.is now time to actually start thinking, how do we get more money

:02:36. > :02:39.into the NHS? Of raising taxes was mac that will come up in the budget

:02:40. > :02:43.next month, I suspect, because there is this terrifying figure that

:02:44. > :02:46.spending per head in the NHS will fall next year. I can't believe the

:02:47. > :02:52.Government will allow that to happen, so I suspect Philip Hammond

:02:53. > :02:59.will announce more emergency money for the NHS next year in the budget.

:03:00. > :03:04.But I think Ruth is right. You can we liked all the metaphors. That

:03:05. > :03:09.will only be a sticking plaster, not a permanent solution. The demands on

:03:10. > :03:12.the NHS just get greater and greater, not least because

:03:13. > :03:16.treatments get more expensive. There is more that you can do. 50 years

:03:17. > :03:21.ago, we didn't have the treatment we have today, and we have an ageing

:03:22. > :03:25.population. There is the other problem of social care. There, I

:03:26. > :03:29.really would bring in an insurance system. I think we have to think

:03:30. > :03:39.about this quite hard. Something has to be done. The Telegraph has: A

:03:40. > :03:46.crippling rates rise in the NHS, adding fuel to the fire that the NHS

:03:47. > :03:52.is in crisis. This is a technical story about the way that business

:03:53. > :03:59.rates fall on public bodies, just as they fall on private sector bodies.

:04:00. > :04:05.Buried in there is the story that Amazon is going to see its business

:04:06. > :04:09.rates fall next year, which is odd. I don't pretend to understand it,

:04:10. > :04:13.but it is obvious that the NHS is under extreme pressure, and this is

:04:14. > :04:18.an additional pressure on it. You know about business - how can that

:04:19. > :04:24.be? The NHS, having financial problems, is being hit with business

:04:25. > :04:30.rates. Amazon, which has more money in the world than any other company

:04:31. > :04:34.apart from Apple is seeing falling rates. I do think the Treasury needs

:04:35. > :04:39.to have a look at this. Small businesses, particularly in the

:04:40. > :04:43.south-east, have got whacking great rate rises as well. The trouble is,

:04:44. > :04:48.the rates are meant to be upgraded or changed every five years, but

:04:49. > :04:56.they haven't been for ten years, so the whole valuation has got horribly

:04:57. > :05:00.out of kilter. It amused me, it said here in the Telegraph that there is

:05:01. > :05:05.rolling concerning Whitehall about the impact of rate rises, continued

:05:06. > :05:17.on page two. And we don't have page two. Perhaps the Treasury is looking

:05:18. > :05:21.at this will stop it seems bonkers. Although, I have to say, we have

:05:22. > :05:24.page four of the Express. Some papers get preferential treatment

:05:25. > :05:32.because we get the inside pages but others don't send them. Putin live

:05:33. > :05:37.forces up top adviser after just 24 days. Michael Flynn, national

:05:38. > :05:41.security adviser to President Trump, has had to resign because he

:05:42. > :05:45.apparently had a meeting with a Russian envoy and talked about

:05:46. > :05:51.something he shouldn't have done. It is a confusing story. I think what

:05:52. > :05:54.he did wrong was that he wasn't completely straight with the vice

:05:55. > :05:59.president about what he has said. So he lied about what he had said? It

:06:00. > :06:03.is always the cover-up that gets you. I think it is surprising,

:06:04. > :06:09.because for the first time, President Trump has only been in

:06:10. > :06:15.office for a few weeks, but already he is suddenly behaving like a

:06:16. > :06:19.normal politician, instead of doing what he normally does - double down

:06:20. > :06:23.and say that nothing is wrong, nothing to see here, and start

:06:24. > :06:27.attacking other people. He has done what a normal politician does, which

:06:28. > :06:31.is to sack someone from getting into trouble. Ruth, he did double down

:06:32. > :06:36.for three weeks. He knew about this conversation. Three weeks that they

:06:37. > :06:44.knew about this, and they desperately try to save him, or one

:06:45. > :06:48.faction in the White House did. It gets more and more muddy, as far as

:06:49. > :06:53.I can see. The story now is that he misled Mike Pence, the vice

:06:54. > :07:00.president, who went on television and the night that Michael Flynn had

:07:01. > :07:05.discussed sanctions with the Russian ambassador on the phone. Did nobody

:07:06. > :07:10.listened to the conversation? That is the amazing thing - he is the

:07:11. > :07:15.national security adviser and he is talking to the Russians. It is going

:07:16. > :07:22.to be taped, you would have thought! For the person who is taking me at

:07:23. > :07:25.the moment, this is Michael Flynn. Mitt-mac absolutely bizarre, and

:07:26. > :07:31.slightly worrying that the national Security adviser would not know

:07:32. > :07:33.that. Absolutely bizarre rant slightly worrying that the national

:07:34. > :07:40.security adviser would not know that. A suggestion that Donald Trump

:07:41. > :07:42.has ties that are too close to Russia, and the whole Trump

:07:43. > :07:46.situation and his White House, of course, has been in the news here,

:07:47. > :07:51.because he will be coming to the UK pretty soon, Ruth. And the Daily

:07:52. > :07:55.Mail has the story of Theresa May saying she has assured Mr Trump that

:07:56. > :08:01.she is looking forward to the state visit, despite this petition having

:08:02. > :08:08.well over 1 million signatures. I signed the other one. Saying he

:08:09. > :08:12.should be coming? Yes, I did. 300,000 people signed it. Why should

:08:13. > :08:17.he come? I have concerns about Mr Trump, like anybody, but he is the

:08:18. > :08:22.president of the United States of America and a very important ally to

:08:23. > :08:27.us, and after Theresa May's visit to the White House, I think that a

:08:28. > :08:39.build-up links with the youth to make US, particularly with Brexit

:08:40. > :08:45.coming. I am allowed on the BBC. I try to stop it happening, Ruth. I

:08:46. > :08:51.said no, no! The US is strategically so important now that to stop the

:08:52. > :08:57.state visit or give him a half kilter state visit I think would be

:08:58. > :09:01.deeply unwise. A contest of petitions is not the way to decide

:09:02. > :09:05.these things. Certainly, 1.8 million people feel very strongly about

:09:06. > :09:08.Donald Trump and not having in here, but we had an opinion poll in the

:09:09. > :09:12.Independent at the weekend, and more people, when you look at the

:09:13. > :09:16.population as a whole, think that Donald Trump should come and meet

:09:17. > :09:22.the Queen then think the opposite, so 1.8 million people versus 300,000

:09:23. > :09:32.- it's not the way you decide these things. It is quality, not quantity.

:09:33. > :09:37.Talking about quality and quantity, the Financial Times - nuclear policy

:09:38. > :09:43.hit by Toshiba, John. I thought they made video recorders, but apparently

:09:44. > :09:51.they also put a lot of money into nuclear power plants, and this

:09:52. > :09:54.Cumbria plant is a very important possible new nuclear power station,

:09:55. > :10:00.if we are going to have nuclear power in this country, as most

:10:01. > :10:04.people, I think, want to. It is also complicated because it has become an

:10:05. > :10:08.issue in a by-election, which the Conservatives think they can win

:10:09. > :10:11.because Theresa May is going up there to campaign, which is unusual

:10:12. > :10:21.for a Prime Minister. When is she going? Soon, I think. She obviously

:10:22. > :10:25.things they can win it, and if they can exploit people's fears up there

:10:26. > :10:30.about Labour's hesitations of a nuclear power, then... It is a big

:10:31. > :10:33.employer up there. This will throw a spanner in the box it top Sheba

:10:34. > :10:39.Polak anyway, but Ruth knows more about that than I do. The FT had an

:10:40. > :10:51.interesting leader today on exactly this issue. It is a classic case of

:10:52. > :10:56.market failure where you can rely on the market to get the funding. These

:10:57. > :10:59.problems with Toshiba just show that completely, that the Government

:11:00. > :11:03.really does have to intervene. They will have to put their money where

:11:04. > :11:08.their mouth is with this one. If the private sector won't pay for it,

:11:09. > :11:12.does that not mean it is not economically viable? Our whole

:11:13. > :11:15.economic policy is skewed, and there are all sorts of subsidies, not

:11:16. > :11:20.least in renewables. The thing about nuclear power is that it is solid

:11:21. > :11:25.and reliable power, and I suspect it is the sort of power we should go

:11:26. > :11:31.for. It is expensive to bring online, that's the problem. If you

:11:32. > :11:38.are trying to get rid of carbon, that is an issue as well. Let's go

:11:39. > :11:44.to the metro story - assassinated at the airport. We only have about four

:11:45. > :11:53.minutes. Kim Jong Un's playboy brother murdered. A great front page

:11:54. > :11:56.- is it true? Presumably so if it is in the paper. If this is what a

:11:57. > :12:01.North Korean playboy looks like, I think it is time we all moved on. It

:12:02. > :12:09.does seem as though he has been helped into another world. According

:12:10. > :12:13.to the metro, there was a woman with a cloth who came up behind him and

:12:14. > :12:18.put this cloth on his face and burnt his eyes, but that was disputed in

:12:19. > :12:21.the other papers, wasn't it? Other papers talk about needles.

:12:22. > :12:27.Obviously, something happened, because he's dead. It is an

:12:28. > :12:35.extraordinary story. Spy thriller material. We're not totally clear

:12:36. > :12:40.about what exactly happened. This happened in Malaysia, by all

:12:41. > :12:45.accounts. In Kuala Lumpur. Killing stokes tension over missile test,

:12:46. > :12:49.John according to the paper. Kim Jong Un fired off a missile, the

:12:50. > :12:54.first launched during President Trump's time in the White House.

:12:55. > :13:00.Last weekend, I think it was. That's right. North Korea is a pretty

:13:01. > :13:08.worrying place as far as the world is concerned. Donald Trump has not

:13:09. > :13:13.responded in any sort of irresponsible way, which some people

:13:14. > :13:21.might have feared he would have done, but this kind of shenanigans,

:13:22. > :13:27.I mean, maybe it is not related and it is just a factional fight within

:13:28. > :13:37.the ruling family. Who knows? We have a minute left. We can go on of

:13:38. > :13:42.the day. -- we can go on to the story of the day. They had to find

:13:43. > :13:46.someone with the same stature as Mary Berry. I am hoping Prue Leith

:13:47. > :14:08.is that kind of person. She is a clock, but does she baked? -- does

:14:09. > :14:14.she bake? Is she a baker? She is a restaurateur, so she does more than

:14:15. > :14:25.just baking. I am questioning this. Mary Berry does more than baking.

:14:26. > :14:30.She does cakes. Cakes is baking! I am being told I have to shut up,

:14:31. > :14:35.which means you two have to. Ruth, John, it has been great having you.

:14:36. > :14:43.Many thanks for that. You can see the front pages of the papers

:14:44. > :14:46.online. It is all there for you. If you miss the programme any evening,

:14:47. > :14:51.you can watch it later on BBC iPlayer with your favourite glass of

:14:52. > :14:56.wine. Just relax and watch. We have been relaxed here, Ruth, John and I.

:14:57. > :15:09.That's all for now. Goodbye. A bit of rain in the forecast over

:15:10. > :15:12.the next few days, but nothing too severe. There will be lengthy dry

:15:13. > :15:15.spells as we head towards the weekend and it will be mild. The

:15:16. > :15:16.rain coming from