:00:18. > :00:24.Hello, welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bring us
:00:25. > :00:28.tomorrow morning, with me is the economic Senator of the Independent
:00:29. > :00:34.and the public affairs consultant Alex Deane. The Times leads with an
:00:35. > :00:38.interview with David Miliband who says that Labour is the weakest it
:00:39. > :00:42.has been for 50 years following the party 's defeat in the Copeland
:00:43. > :00:48.by-election. And there is more on Labour, in the i Cena Jeremy Corbyn
:00:49. > :00:52.refuses to stand down as the party leader despite losing that seed
:00:53. > :00:57.Copeland for the first time in 80 years. The Telegraph focuses on the
:00:58. > :01:01.Tory victory and Theresa May's declaration that the Conservatives
:01:02. > :01:04.are now the party of working people. Staying with the Prime Minister, the
:01:05. > :01:09.front page of the Financial Times talks about the pressure on her to
:01:10. > :01:14.cut disability benefits. The Daily Mail reports that motorists should
:01:15. > :01:20.be wary of buying diesel vehicles after a warning from Chris Grayling.
:01:21. > :01:25.Express highlights what is a looming pension crisis, as UK taxpayers are
:01:26. > :01:29.subsidising low paid jobs for foreign workers. The Daily Mail
:01:30. > :01:36.front page says she is one of several residents that has been made
:01:37. > :01:39.homeless because of a fire caused by a whirlpool dryer. In the Guardian
:01:40. > :01:45.warns that tens of thousands of schoolchildren are being put at risk
:01:46. > :01:50.due to toxic fumes. Let us begin. Perhaps you would kick us off. The
:01:51. > :01:56.Daily Telegraph, the front page, we are the workers party now. Theresa
:01:57. > :02:01.May. Very ominous words if you are a Labour supporter or Labour MP, she
:02:02. > :02:06.has been saying this theme, she has been putting her tanks on Labour's
:02:07. > :02:10.drawn, she is saying now it is really, really true because of this
:02:11. > :02:15.catastrophic performance by Labour losing this seat of Copeland which
:02:16. > :02:19.has been in power for 73 years, and a pretty poor showing in Stoke
:02:20. > :02:23.although they held onto the seat. They basically halved their
:02:24. > :02:28.majority. She's reinforcing that message. Labour is out of touch,
:02:29. > :02:31.Jeremy Corbyn doesn't speak for working class communities.
:02:32. > :02:35.Haemorrhaging support, not winning elections they should be winning and
:02:36. > :02:39.we are riding high as the Conservative Party. Good for her,
:02:40. > :02:46.going into the Brexit negotiations. The domestic Philip. Governments are
:02:47. > :02:51.usually in the position of by-elections, suddenly this one does
:02:52. > :02:55.matter? Normally the day after we are discussing these things and
:02:56. > :02:59.explaining why the government lost. It is against form, let's be clear
:03:00. > :03:02.on the facts. These are both seats that Labour should have won, on the
:03:03. > :03:07.messaging, Labour has been in trouble in what they say for some
:03:08. > :03:11.time. It is not just Jeremy Corbyn, in the last parliament Labour
:03:12. > :03:12.allowed the Conservative Party to own the idea of the northern
:03:13. > :03:27.powerhouse. Many people on the left was saying how did we
:03:28. > :03:30.let this happen? George Osborne looks like the champion of working
:03:31. > :03:32.people in the North. This is the next stage of that. Theresa May is
:03:33. > :03:35.seeking to message working people with a party that really cares about
:03:36. > :03:37.you, now eight conservative traditional interpretation of that
:03:38. > :03:42.is that taxes too- something that I believe and working people will hear
:03:43. > :03:47.and feel. But she's very good at broadening, David Cameron didn't
:03:48. > :03:51.message as well to the tabloid has Theresa May. People care about these
:03:52. > :03:56.issues that are fought over, she's doing very well. She is but Copeland
:03:57. > :04:00.is a slightly special case, we shouldn't ignore that, Sellafield
:04:01. > :04:05.nuclear plant and whatever else we would think about Labour, knowing
:04:06. > :04:09.about the nuclear policy is one of the more perplexing things? There
:04:10. > :04:13.are always local factors, but the big messages that Labour should be
:04:14. > :04:20.winning the seat is very comfortably. From across the water I
:04:21. > :04:25.think, I think David Miliband, still in New York. David Miliband saying
:04:26. > :04:31.that Labour is at the weakest for 50 years. I can't figure out, whether
:04:32. > :04:35.this is efforts by those within Labour, in very searingly positions,
:04:36. > :04:40.trying to shake all been out of his position at last. Or if it is simply
:04:41. > :04:44.more moaning from the sidelines for those who are not in the battle.
:04:45. > :04:51.Actually the funny thing about politics is that both may be true.
:04:52. > :04:55.David Miliband is off on his Thunderbirds International rescue
:04:56. > :04:59.job in New York, comes back to the UK, and just in time to kick Labour
:05:00. > :05:05.and say you are the weakest UI and 50 years to which many people will
:05:06. > :05:09.say, you didn't stay and fight, you were our most promising person at OK
:05:10. > :05:14.you lost your own brother, debt over it, you could have been helping us
:05:15. > :05:18.instead of living it up on the other side of the pond. I think the other
:05:19. > :05:23.thing to say about David Miliband, while he was a very promising
:05:24. > :05:29.leadership candidate, I see no real appetite to see him back, I do see.
:05:30. > :05:34.But the point that Jeremy Corbyn keeps on making is that he has got
:05:35. > :05:41.this wonderful bedrock of support. That doesn't change no matter what
:05:42. > :05:45.is happening in the by-elections. And David Miliband about his future,
:05:46. > :05:49.we don't know what is going to happen but what is the point of
:05:50. > :06:01.saying never? Is there a possibility of him coming back? I think the
:06:02. > :06:08.bedrock of support. Not happy. But the cadre, is gone, the almost
:06:09. > :06:12.cultish enthusiasm for him as their saviour. I think not the majority
:06:13. > :06:15.but I think some of them will be looking at this, thinking Hang on,
:06:16. > :06:23.maybe some of these doubts are right. This cannot go on, maybe the
:06:24. > :06:28.penny is finally dropping. It is dropping among the union movement.
:06:29. > :06:37.Indeed, you are queueing up the i, the front page. Here we have got,
:06:38. > :06:40.Corbin given final warning. We can only see the front page, we don't
:06:41. > :06:48.know who it is, but we think you probably know who it is. Yes it is
:06:49. > :06:51.probably Dave Prentice, head of the public services union. Variant on
:06:52. > :06:59.land the unions were very much behind Corbyn. So, any union guy,
:07:00. > :07:06.big senior union guy who comes out and says, they are worried about
:07:07. > :07:09.Jeremy Corbyn, final warning. That is significant because that is an
:07:10. > :07:13.important part of his base and if these guys are starting to say this
:07:14. > :07:22.can't go on. That will be very worrying. Is it down to Jeremy
:07:23. > :07:26.Corbyn's departure? I don't know about that, I don't know whether
:07:27. > :07:30.this is going to shake the tree on the next step, because of course he
:07:31. > :07:36.still does have the Len McCluskey 's of this world. And even if they came
:07:37. > :07:41.out against him, they don't control their members votes, for a long time
:07:42. > :07:45.the union block vote was to cried as anti-democratic. Now the bosses may
:07:46. > :07:48.feel that even if they come out against a leader like Corbin, their
:07:49. > :07:53.members might still vote for him had in fact they would be quite likely
:07:54. > :07:57.to. Let's move on, we talked about Theresa May, great day, wonderful
:07:58. > :08:03.victory. But lots of things around the corner. We think Brexit, but the
:08:04. > :08:09.FT has a slightly different thing, that she faces a disability benefits
:08:10. > :08:13.battle. What is this about? Theresa May and her government, it is funny
:08:14. > :08:16.that politics always wants to personalise and make it about the
:08:17. > :08:20.leader. Actually this is about the government and an initiative that
:08:21. > :08:23.began with Iain Duncan Smith and his attempt to change the welfare
:08:24. > :08:28.system. The point that the government made in opposition under
:08:29. > :08:30.IDS and his Centre for Social Justice is that many people when
:08:31. > :08:36.they get onto benefits never come off them. In effect, you were
:08:37. > :08:39.trapped in an environment where, you would never be asked in again if you
:08:40. > :08:44.are sick and you are financially centre buys never to rejoin the
:08:45. > :08:46.workforce. An attempt to fix that has led to an enormous backlash
:08:47. > :08:51.saying that many people who should never be forced into work or even to
:08:52. > :08:55.have an assessment are being assessed and assessed unfairly.
:08:56. > :09:01.Theresa may now and her government now face a situation where there is
:09:02. > :09:07.a significant deficit, as there is in every department in government.
:09:08. > :09:11.?3.7 billion hole. Lure we had to be able to help those who can work back
:09:12. > :09:15.into work and that instinct is admirable, but on the other hand
:09:16. > :09:19.there has to be a point below nobody can fall. And taxes the price that
:09:20. > :09:23.we pay to be in a civilised society. Wedding that balance right and being
:09:24. > :09:30.seen to get that balance right is something that the Conservative
:09:31. > :09:34.Party has to try to do. OK, then? This is interesting because this is
:09:35. > :09:38.the reality behind some of the rhetoric, the party of the working
:09:39. > :09:42.people, the compassionate face of the Conservatives because these are
:09:43. > :09:46.benefit cuts that date back to George Osborne time. He trained
:09:47. > :09:51.these cuts, and they are integral to his plan of balancing the budget.
:09:52. > :09:56.Theresa May has not reversed those, this is one element of them. But the
:09:57. > :10:01.big element is the cuts to tax credits which will fall on a lot of
:10:02. > :10:06.working people. The idea. That is different to these disability
:10:07. > :10:12.benefits. The package that George Osborne put through, it is part of
:10:13. > :10:16.the legacy. I can agree with you about tax benefits that might
:10:17. > :10:22.disincentive eyes people, but, I think the government is right to
:10:23. > :10:26.say, a disability. It is a hard message to make. The disability
:10:27. > :10:32.packages too generous and people who are not sick, claimed to be sick or
:10:33. > :10:37.stay on sick. It is the old problem. Facing governments, particularly
:10:38. > :10:41.Tory ones. And the Daily Telegraph story, about the Netherlands. The
:10:42. > :10:46.Netherlands holds in quarry on whether it could ditch your row.
:10:47. > :10:51.This is something that could be the beginning of something really big?
:10:52. > :10:55.Explain to us what could happen. The Netherlands have elections on the
:10:56. > :10:58.15th of March, important Parliamentary elections to decide
:10:59. > :11:02.the composition of a new government and they have very powerful forces
:11:03. > :11:07.of your scepticism bubbling up, the Netherlands is one of the core
:11:08. > :11:10.countries of the Eurozone -- of Euroscepticism. The assumption is
:11:11. > :11:14.that if countries like that start to leave, the whole edifice could
:11:15. > :11:20.collapse to the fact that they are having a Parliamentary enquiring
:11:21. > :11:22.into it, and they will discuss it after the new elections. Implies
:11:23. > :11:28.that it would be a big issue potentially at those elections, and
:11:29. > :11:33.if this is your sceptic further, gets built up a head of steam, there
:11:34. > :11:39.is no telling where it might end. This is all about how planking this
:11:40. > :11:49.character girt builders. This is an attempt to trawl the sting out of
:11:50. > :11:54.the Eurosceptic movement. This is about forcing people to be able to
:11:55. > :11:58.say, don't worry, we can do with that after the election. Dealing
:11:59. > :12:01.with that thing that is most strong for the Eurosceptic movement. Most
:12:02. > :12:07.people don't question the EU but they do question the impact of the
:12:08. > :12:09.euro. In wealthy nations like the Netherlands they deeply resent
:12:10. > :12:14.bailing out poorer countries like Greece. It is worth reflecting it is
:12:15. > :12:17.not just bailing them out, the Greeks spend the money themselves
:12:18. > :12:22.that got them into debt but keeping them in a currency in which they
:12:23. > :12:30.plainly have no place, that is the EU's Falls and degeneration of Greek
:12:31. > :12:32.youth have been sacrificed on the altar of the European Union. Any
:12:33. > :12:36.decent minded Dutchman would look at that and say is this what we want to
:12:37. > :12:41.be part of? Yes but this could be something, we know all about us
:12:42. > :12:48.exiting, but one of the mainstays of the European Union, if it starts to
:12:49. > :12:55.move away from the currency. RIP the euro? We saw how the markets react.
:12:56. > :13:05.Potentially, crumbling, breaking apart, it is trade is going really
:13:06. > :13:08.nuts about the prospect. Four. They forced the Greeks to stay in for
:13:09. > :13:13.political reasons. The Greeks would have come out and devalued. They
:13:14. > :13:19.were forced to stay in because of the project, not just economic.
:13:20. > :13:23.Let's move on, the Daily Mail, minister says beware of buying a
:13:24. > :13:29.diesel. This is Chris Grayling, the trust for secretary. It is worth
:13:30. > :13:34.saying on the inside pages the Department for Transport guy is
:13:35. > :13:38.saying this is in no way saying that you shouldn't buy diesel. This is
:13:39. > :13:41.the minister saying that people should be environmentally aware in
:13:42. > :13:44.making the decisions they had to make. Chris Grayling has said that
:13:45. > :13:49.people should be aware of and alive to the point that if you are making
:13:50. > :13:52.busy journeys and city environments than The Habs there is a better
:13:53. > :13:58.environmental choice for you than diesel. Dad is probably true, it on
:13:59. > :14:06.the other hand it is another mood music move against diesel, after a
:14:07. > :14:10.time where people were positively encouraged to go to diesel. That is
:14:11. > :14:13.what is unfair, many people up and down the country thought they were
:14:14. > :14:16.doing the right thing, OK they thought they were getting many more
:14:17. > :14:19.miles to the gallon, but they thought they were doing the right
:14:20. > :14:24.thing when they bought a diesel car, but they have seen environments in
:14:25. > :14:28.which government is up and down the land, ministers in Westminster and
:14:29. > :14:34.Merrill in many cities are looking at how. Pretty diesel cars into an
:14:35. > :14:39.environment even having them on the road, it is far too fast to be fair
:14:40. > :14:43.because many people bought diesel in an environment where they were
:14:44. > :14:47.positively encourage. At the same time, you would think that people's
:14:48. > :14:50.attention should be drawn to the polluting effect. Governments have
:14:51. > :14:54.been doing similar things for many years touring courage in the
:14:55. > :14:58.congestion charge, in London is based on how much the outfit from
:14:59. > :15:05.their car, search it is just a move from lack. You can look at it in two
:15:06. > :15:10.ways, on the surface you can say that it looks like Arthur Daley, but
:15:11. > :15:15.on the other hand you might be right comedies pushing on an open door. It
:15:16. > :15:19.is well known that diesel is not the panacea for the environment, or for
:15:20. > :15:25.the driver that it was once presented as. We have had the whole
:15:26. > :15:29.VW scandal has totally tarnished the brand of diesel. So in that sense
:15:30. > :15:34.you might argue that it is the bit of a nudge policy. The diesel
:15:35. > :15:40.scrapping scheme, and I suspect this is all part and parcel of bad agenda
:15:41. > :15:43.so maybe he is trying to nudge things in the right ways. The other
:15:44. > :15:49.reason why they mean notches because they've lost the case over their
:15:50. > :15:53.environmental emissions, controlled to clean earth, saying they are not
:15:54. > :16:00.moving far enough. And they may not want to lose a game like that. The
:16:01. > :16:05.Daily Mail is talking about business rates. Not just business rate. Small
:16:06. > :16:10.firms may be forced to work out their own rates. Li there is the
:16:11. > :16:15.suggestion that firms who ready face enormous hikes, not quite as
:16:16. > :16:29.enormous as the mail says, it is 300%. Never wrong for long. These
:16:30. > :16:33.firms may then have to try to their own rate. As we all know, if the
:16:34. > :16:38.taxman makes an error in your favour, you don't get paid interest
:16:39. > :16:41.on it and nobody gets into trouble when it is finally corrected but if
:16:42. > :16:47.you make an error that is contrary to the taxman's favour then you had
:16:48. > :16:51.to pay up in retrospect a quite a lot of money. Imagine that you are a
:16:52. > :16:54.small business com you debt have a full-time accountancy department, we
:16:55. > :16:59.don't have somebody working on this, you have not only to work out your
:17:00. > :17:03.own rate but if you get it wrong, you may face punitive punishment
:17:04. > :17:08.going back years. I had to say, it is a bit of a complex matter, it is
:17:09. > :17:14.worth reading to the end, the Revenue and Customs, and the
:17:15. > :17:21.Treasury. They say "It does not indicate a government preference."
:17:22. > :17:25.It is quiet is the context in the way that small businesses work with
:17:26. > :17:29.business rates, they have this very infrequent evaluations, one of the
:17:30. > :17:36.reasons why there is such a furore, they're not done it in seven years,
:17:37. > :17:40.it is done on this way. He paid is often successful. It is possible, it
:17:41. > :17:48.is possible that it might be better for firms to say, this is what we
:17:49. > :17:53.think. If they disagree with that. The trouble is that local government
:17:54. > :17:57.doesn't have enough money, what we are doing is forcing local
:17:58. > :18:01.businesses to take on the risk of these calculations. One story we
:18:02. > :18:07.must do is go to the back pages, all papers have this story about Paul
:18:08. > :18:13.Rolf Ranieri getting the boot. -- poor old Ranieri. Interesting slant
:18:14. > :18:20.on it in the express, who wants to have a go at this? Jose Mourinho
:18:21. > :18:24.wading in? Key has been there, he has been in that position, players
:18:25. > :18:30.don't perform and then he gets the boot. As a winning manager. It is
:18:31. > :18:33.really interesting, that for the players, he is saying they are out.
:18:34. > :18:39.They started thinking about money and they started not performing and
:18:40. > :18:44.they let Ranieri down. That is what happened in the Chelsea Boot room, I
:18:45. > :18:48.will be at Palace against Middlesbrough and everybody will be
:18:49. > :18:53.talking about Ranieri going. It is such a rich is to Iraq story and it
:18:54. > :18:57.is so sad, win the title and out next season, that is modern
:18:58. > :19:01.football, if I owned the club, could you guarantee wouldn't do it? Thank
:19:02. > :19:08.you very much indeed, we have to leave it there. That is it for the
:19:09. > :19:18.papers tonight. Don't forget you can see the front pages online. And if
:19:19. > :19:23.you missed the programme, any evening you can watch it later on
:19:24. > :19:35.the BBC I play. From us all, goodbye.
:19:36. > :19:42.So after the storm: we have got some sunshine, nor absolutely everywhere
:19:43. > :19:44.but overall, a pretty good day across most of the UK, a few