:00:00. > 3:59:59coming in for his injured Ulster team-mate Andrew Trimble Rob Kearney
:00:00. > :00:00.picked upn a groin injury in their win over the French
:00:00. > :00:18.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be
:00:19. > :00:21.With me are Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser at Arbuthnot
:00:22. > :00:24.Banking Group, and Caroline Wheeler, Political Editor at
:00:25. > :00:40.Good to see you both, it has been an interesting day. We start with the
:00:41. > :00:44.Telegraph and its take on the budget is the Tories have broken their
:00:45. > :00:49.manifesto pledge not to raise taxes. The Guardian described the
:00:50. > :00:58.Chancellor is falling into a tax trap over his approach to national
:00:59. > :01:08.insurance. The Times describes the policy as a tax on red, while the
:01:09. > :01:19.express says Philip Philip Hammond is laying down the tracks for the
:01:20. > :01:26.Brexit move. The Daily Express asks what is so funny. The mail shows a
:01:27. > :01:29.picture of Philip Hammond and says it is no laughing matter. All the
:01:30. > :01:39.references are to joked and laughed. This is a man who is supposed to be
:01:40. > :01:44.very dour, a spreadsheet guy, a policy wonk, but he is cracking
:01:45. > :01:50.jokes as if he was Les Dawson. The most surprising thing about his
:01:51. > :01:56.budget speech was that because we knew it. We knew there would be
:01:57. > :02:03.extra money for social care, education, Betty level, or help for
:02:04. > :02:08.business rates. We read about the national insurance contributions
:02:09. > :02:15.rising and we knew the OBR would be changing their forecast. So the
:02:16. > :02:20.jokes were the surprise. But still it has to be said, Caroline, the
:02:21. > :02:24.front page of The Times, Philip Hammond's ?2 billion tax rate. The
:02:25. > :02:30.indications were that this was going to happen, he was going to have to
:02:31. > :02:37.do something about social care and he would have to find the money
:02:38. > :03:01.somewhere and that national insurers would be the area that was hit, but
:03:02. > :03:02.it was still a shock. We had an indication this was
:03:03. > :03:04.thinking was going. It is surprising the Conservative Chancellor would
:03:05. > :03:10.electricians, the make-up artists who have just done our make up. The
:03:11. > :03:15.idea is was that an impact assessment done on this? Theresa May
:03:16. > :03:20.said she was a country that works for everyone and not just the
:03:21. > :03:24.does not extend to those people who does not extend to those people who
:03:25. > :03:28.are self employed seem surprising to many of us, that these are the
:03:29. > :03:35.losers of this budget, when there will be many of those who are in the
:03:36. > :03:39.bracket. Also people who are running their own businesses who are self
:03:40. > :03:43.employed, many of them are the backbone of this country, the small
:03:44. > :03:48.shopkeepers, the people who do all those jobs that we need them to do.
:03:49. > :03:55.The idea they will be worse off as a result of this is a surprise. I got
:03:56. > :04:00.a tweet earlier saying the BBC, the BBC, you are so negative about the
:04:01. > :04:06.budget. I am self employed, I do not mind paying a little extra because
:04:07. > :04:10.the money will go to social care. That is very generous of that
:04:11. > :04:14.particular lady, but I would like to add to what Caroline said about the
:04:15. > :04:18.self employed. It is not just national insurance contributions
:04:19. > :04:24.that will be increased. There is the dividend allowance and if you are an
:04:25. > :04:29.incorporated self-employed person you can pay a dividend. The current
:04:30. > :04:36.allowance is ?5,000 and it will be cut down to ?2000. Plus the flat
:04:37. > :04:40.rate VAT scheme which is rather technical, there will be a
:04:41. > :04:45.disadvantage there. For the self employed, and I include myself in
:04:46. > :04:52.that bracket, there are now three different measures which have made
:04:53. > :04:56.it more difficult for people to be self-employed and to produce the
:04:57. > :04:59.incentive is to be self-employed. It is already difficult because you do
:05:00. > :05:06.not get holiday pay, sick pay, maternity pay. But that is part of
:05:07. > :05:09.the argument. What he is doing, as well as finding money for social
:05:10. > :05:16.care, is bringing parity between those who are employed with staff
:05:17. > :05:21.jobs and contracts and those who are freelance because they have been out
:05:22. > :05:26.of kilter. In terms of what they pay, but in terms of the benefits,
:05:27. > :05:32.he says they can get away with it because they have already tinkered
:05:33. > :05:38.with the state pension. The self-employed are now entitled to a
:05:39. > :05:44.full state pension. But if I am sick and I work for a company, I will be
:05:45. > :05:50.paid. It is a hassle being self employed, not least of all doing the
:05:51. > :05:56.VAT returns. I feel I deserve that bit of extra money! It is a hassle
:05:57. > :06:03.being self-employed. Let's go on to the Daily Telegraph. In this story
:06:04. > :06:07.it is the fact that before the 20 15th election the Conservatives said
:06:08. > :06:13.they would not raise taxes. In fact, the Daily Telegraph has on the front
:06:14. > :06:19.very commitment to you from that manifesto, no increases in VAT,
:06:20. > :06:25.national insurance contributions and income tax. They have broken a
:06:26. > :06:29.promise. I am afraid they have. If I may change the subject, I agree with
:06:30. > :06:36.that... You want to talk about Barcelona winning? It is interesting
:06:37. > :06:43.income tax is mentioned. What did not come out in this budget is that
:06:44. > :06:46.personal allowances will go up and April ?211,500 and the high rates
:06:47. > :06:53.will go up and that was not mentioned at all. If I had been
:06:54. > :06:58.Philip Hammond, I would have set I have got a nasty surprise for the
:06:59. > :07:02.self employed, but do not worry, I am putting personal allowances up.
:07:03. > :07:10.He mentioned the living wage is going up to ?7.50. He could have
:07:11. > :07:15.sugared the bill a bit. You are right about the tax break, but it is
:07:16. > :07:19.more than that, it is an ideological break which is something we have
:07:20. > :07:25.seen to read a good time and time again. From the moment she appointed
:07:26. > :07:29.her own Cabinet and sacked all the Notting Hill set and brought in her
:07:30. > :07:33.own people, she signalled a break with the camera an agenda which was
:07:34. > :07:38.very much in tune with George Osborne in terms of bringing taxes
:07:39. > :07:43.down and making the state as small as possible. It seems Philip Hammond
:07:44. > :07:46.is cut from a different cloth. Allister Heath's commentary in the
:07:47. > :07:52.Telegraph is very much talking about this idea that there are two camps.
:07:53. > :07:57.Those who believe the state should be involved and they should raise
:07:58. > :08:01.lots of taxes and do lots of things, and those who think you should step
:08:02. > :08:04.back and keep taxes low and let other sectors take on
:08:05. > :08:10.responsibility. Theresa May and Philip Hammond believed they can get
:08:11. > :08:16.away with breaking a policy pledge because there is no one to pick them
:08:17. > :08:22.up on it. Is that the implication? The Labour Party are whatever and
:08:23. > :08:30.the SNP have however many MPs, but they can get away with it. That is
:08:31. > :08:43.right. The Labour Party is polling 25%, that is extraordinary. Labour
:08:44. > :08:44.and the opposition generally are pretty good at flagging up
:08:45. > :08:49.warning signs. They have been going on for several weeks about the rate
:08:50. > :08:54.rises, so they were on message today. They saw that storm brewing
:08:55. > :08:59.and they headed it off today. They put in changes to business rates
:09:00. > :09:05.which have been causing such as headache to the government in these
:09:06. > :09:09.last couple of weeks. But what they did not do with this one is the
:09:10. > :09:13.opposition were not on the ball enough to see this coming, so the
:09:14. > :09:17.government did not get the warning signs they would often get when they
:09:18. > :09:22.could see that they are walking into trouble. When I read about the
:09:23. > :09:26.national insurance contributions last week it was described as
:09:27. > :09:31.controversial. It was not as if this was not controversial... Clearly
:09:32. > :09:39.they did not make anything out of it. They have already won a
:09:40. > :09:43.by-election. Copeland. In a way they should not have done. But on the
:09:44. > :09:48.front page of the Guardian, Philip Hammond falls into a tax trap. What
:09:49. > :09:54.are they trying to get across? It is the notion that they have broken a
:09:55. > :10:03.manifesto pledge which in political terms is a no-no. They cannot be
:10:04. > :10:06.trusted. Exactly. It is you implicating and implementing
:10:07. > :10:11.something which you yourself have said is bad. In that sense it is a
:10:12. > :10:17.trap. Again we come back to who is going to pull them up on this trap?
:10:18. > :10:22.Is the Labour Party going to be able to make enough noise on this issue
:10:23. > :10:28.that it will force Philip Hammond into a U-turn. In this instance you
:10:29. > :10:30.will see more of a noise on the Conservative backbenchers because
:10:31. > :10:36.they know they will harm more of their own. We have already seen
:10:37. > :10:39.rumblings in the 1922 committee, which is usually a barometer of
:10:40. > :10:44.where things stand in the Conservative Party and people like
:10:45. > :10:50.John Redwood have been speaking this evening saying it was a daft idea, a
:10:51. > :10:55.tax on enterprise. That is the trap and it is if he will get out of it
:10:56. > :11:00.now. I do not think he will do a U-turn. Most of the papers are
:11:01. > :11:08.running on the same story. That is the irony. There is something about
:11:09. > :11:13.the economy as well. Some of this money is going to social care, that
:11:14. > :11:18.was a big issue going into the budget. He has made an effort to try
:11:19. > :11:23.and deal with that, although many people are saying 3 million over the
:11:24. > :11:28.next few years, 1 million this year and 2 million later on, that is not
:11:29. > :11:33.enough. It cannot be enough, especially in the longer term
:11:34. > :11:38.dealing with an ageing population. I think funding social care and the
:11:39. > :11:43.paper they are bringing out is well overdue. The truth is we have to
:11:44. > :11:49.think very hard as we get an ageing population how we will fund social
:11:50. > :11:55.care and the NHS. This debate has hardly begun. We need to have it. It
:11:56. > :12:04.is difficult for him if you have this kind of red as it is being
:12:05. > :12:11.portrayed. Despite van man. That is the front page. The Sun newspaper is
:12:12. > :12:17.making the point that the Chancellor is hitting the self employed. We
:12:18. > :12:21.have seen the number of self-employed rise dramatically in
:12:22. > :12:26.the last few years. It is appealing to its readers, many of whom are
:12:27. > :12:34.white van men and women. They have been hit by this. The problem he has
:12:35. > :12:38.got is that self-employed people fall into every walk of life. They
:12:39. > :12:44.will be people earning lots of money right at the top like barristers.
:12:45. > :12:48.But the problem he has got is the notion he is kind of robbing Peter
:12:49. > :12:53.to pay Paul in terms of the social care crisis and the problem he stuck
:12:54. > :13:00.with it he has not solved the social care crisis. 1 billion pounds this
:13:01. > :13:03.year is less than a third of what the local authorities are predicting
:13:04. > :13:09.is the black hole in the funding formula for this year alone. He is
:13:10. > :13:14.not solving one problem by creating another and that will be a political
:13:15. > :13:19.nightmare for him. Tax raid on the self-employed, it is smoke and
:13:20. > :13:24.mirrors. It looks as if he is doing something and this 1 billion this
:13:25. > :13:29.year to immediately inject some cash in the system will help. I know some
:13:30. > :13:34.local authorities are pleased about that, but there has to be a
:13:35. > :13:40.strategic vision about where we go in terms of social care stop
:13:41. > :13:44.absolutely and this is why I will be interested to see the green paper
:13:45. > :13:49.when it comes out. There has been a debate, but it has not been pushed
:13:50. > :13:52.hard enough. It is not a new issue and a lot of reports have looked
:13:53. > :13:59.into this subject, but nothing substantive has changed. I wrote a
:14:00. > :14:03.piece on the NHS 15 years ago saying it was not sustainable because we
:14:04. > :14:07.had an ageing population and increasingly expensive treatments
:14:08. > :14:12.and it was pushed into the long grass. Those issues will come back
:14:13. > :14:20.time and time again. That statistic is really striking, every child at
:14:21. > :14:28.this point today, one in three, will live to about 100. On that very
:14:29. > :14:31.population, ageing by the minute. It population, ageing by the minute. It
:14:32. > :14:38.is a bottomless pit. This is why you is a bottomless pit. This is why you
:14:39. > :14:49.have to start thinking of other means of financing that and
:14:50. > :14:49.inevitably it will be some sort of insurance system. The Daily Express.
:14:50. > :14:54.The wider implications budget. This is paving the way for a
:14:55. > :14:57.smooth EU exit. Cautious Philip Hammond repairs Britain to break
:14:58. > :15:06.with Brussels. That is really the autumn budget. Article 50 will have
:15:07. > :15:10.been triggered. Yes, absolutely. It is a different interpretation of the
:15:11. > :15:14.same story, but they have tried to put a slightly more positive spin on
:15:15. > :15:24.it, although they have the same strapline. What they are trying to
:15:25. > :15:27.suggest is the forecasts in terms of government spending forecasts have
:15:28. > :15:32.been pessimistic. We know Brexit looks a bit rosier than we thought,
:15:33. > :15:40.which gives us a float as we set sail for Brexit. Set sail! It could
:15:41. > :15:45.happen in a week that we trigger Article 50. There are other
:15:46. > :15:49.suggestions it may not be until the end of the month. But the idea that
:15:50. > :15:55.we are going into this project is a bit of a leap in the unknown with
:15:56. > :15:57.the wind in our sales from the economy is something the Daily
:15:58. > :16:04.Express feels their readers want to read about. Because of the OBR's
:16:05. > :16:09.favourable forecast for the next 12 months at least he has got a bit
:16:10. > :16:14.more petrol in the tank as well, but he will not splash it out. He will
:16:15. > :16:21.save it in case the headwinds do get a bit choppy. He is right to do
:16:22. > :16:26.that. Even if it was not for Brexit, we need fiscal discipline in this
:16:27. > :16:34.country. We have still got a deficit of 2.5% of the GDP. Our debt is
:16:35. > :16:40.about 85% of GDP, it is enormous. You would still need some austerity.
:16:41. > :16:46.But this story is interesting because the OBR has been obliged to
:16:47. > :16:49.push up its forecast to 2%. Yet again he is forecasting
:16:50. > :16:53.organisations have been caught by the fact they were all terribly
:16:54. > :16:59.negative about what was going to happen. I was saying it was going to
:17:00. > :17:04.be fine. I was a maverick. If you are a maverick and you are wrong,
:17:05. > :17:09.you are wrong. If you are a group thinker and you are wrong, you are
:17:10. > :17:15.right. The predictions were on Article 50 being triggered on June
:17:16. > :17:25.the 25th. And a lot were not. That is true. It would not have made any
:17:26. > :17:28.difference. We will never know. Finally, we are going to mix
:17:29. > :17:35.together the Daily Mail and the Daily Mirror and show our viewers
:17:36. > :17:44.what the front pages are saying. Here they come. The Daily Mirror on
:17:45. > :17:47.the left. What is so funny, Prime Minister? The Daily Mail,
:17:48. > :17:49.laughing matter. Both of them are making the point that he tried to
:17:50. > :17:56.put some jokes in their anti-tried to look beyond the spreadsheet Phil
:17:57. > :18:02.policy geek label, but fundamentally this was a crucial budget in terms
:18:03. > :18:10.of the way that this government looks as it moves towards Brexit.
:18:11. > :18:13.Yes, exactly. Both of them are not normal bedfellows, the Daily Mirror
:18:14. > :18:18.and the Daily Mail. But we have got the same gist. We have got Theresa
:18:19. > :18:24.May and Philip Hammond laughing and the message is that the message that
:18:25. > :18:27.comes out of the budget will not go down particularly well with the
:18:28. > :18:32.readers of the Daily Mirror and the Daily Mail. That is something for
:18:33. > :18:35.the government to worry about. When you are getting papers that are
:18:36. > :18:40.diametrically opposed and they are using the same line, you basically
:18:41. > :18:45.offended both sides of the divide and that is very worrying for her as
:18:46. > :18:54.we are so close to Brexit when we will need all the support we can
:18:55. > :18:59.have. I have been told we have got to end, so there you go. It has been
:19:00. > :19:05.a pleasure looking at some of the stories behind the front pages. All
:19:06. > :19:07.of them have simply been about the budget.
:19:08. > :19:10.Don't forget you can see the front pages of the papers online
:19:11. > :19:14.It's all there for you, seven days a week at bbc.couk/papers.
:19:15. > :19:17.If you miss the programme any evening, you can watch it