:00:16. > :00:18.Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be
:00:19. > :00:21.With me are Torcuil Crichton, Political Editor at The Daily
:00:22. > :00:27.Record, and the barrister and broadcaster, Sophia Cannon.
:00:28. > :00:32.She is in a very politically neutral coloured dress tonight.
:00:33. > :00:33.Tomorrow's front pages, starting with...
:00:34. > :00:36.The Financial Times says there's alarm within Downing Street
:00:37. > :00:38.as the Chancellor has hinted he wants to scrap the
:00:39. > :00:44.The Mirror also leads with the Chancellors comments.
:00:45. > :00:49.It says it could mean an increase in VAT or income tax.
:00:50. > :00:51.The Times headlines sources in Washington who have told
:00:52. > :00:54.the paper that President Trump is prioritising striking a trade
:00:55. > :01:02.The Independent has an exclusive with a former British
:01:03. > :01:04.judge, who warns the Government is displaying "invisible
:01:05. > :01:06.ignorance" in thinking they can free the country
:01:07. > :01:11.The Daily Mail warns of a new mortgage price war
:01:12. > :01:15.The Sun also warns of tax rises and pension cuts
:01:16. > :01:23.It also says there could be an increase in overseas aid.
:01:24. > :01:30.In the Express, the Prime Minister is to reject a fresh call from
:01:31. > :01:34.Brussels to give rights to EU citizens currently living in the UK.
:01:35. > :01:38.The Guardian leads with presidential elections in France and the
:01:39. > :01:45.heightened security at polling stations which open tomorrow amid
:01:46. > :01:50.yesterday's tack in Paris. Let's begin with a reflection on what has
:01:51. > :01:53.been happening in the election campaign after the announcement of
:01:54. > :01:57.the snap election earlier in the week which took everyone by
:01:58. > :02:03.surprise, not least the Conservative Party. The daily Mirror is where we
:02:04. > :02:11.will begin. More election U-turn. Tonsil suggests he will drop the
:02:12. > :02:16.2015 pledged not to hike taxes. -- the Chancellor suggests. I think he
:02:17. > :02:22.has said he wants more flexibility. This is meant to be the Brexit
:02:23. > :02:27.election and it is tax on every paper all day today and all day
:02:28. > :02:36.tomorrow. It will be a tax election this weekend. The Tories want to
:02:37. > :02:40.drop this tax bombshell on Labour. It has bounced back. Philip Hammond
:02:41. > :02:46.has said he will have to raise taxes. We know he will have to raise
:02:47. > :02:51.taxes and he has said that the 80 could go up. Why would the daily
:02:52. > :03:05.Mirror go on the 80? That is because it hits the poor harder than the
:03:06. > :03:13.rich. They spent about 10% of their VAT -- income on VAT. If you took
:03:14. > :03:19.some people out of tax, it would lower the rates for higher earners.
:03:20. > :03:23.Indeed. The issue here is that the Tories have always been the party of
:03:24. > :03:25.fiscal firmness. They have always been the party where you think the
:03:26. > :03:31.economy is in safe hands. It is not economy is in safe hands. It is not
:03:32. > :03:37.the case. It is now appearing that the Labour Party could be right,
:03:38. > :03:41.that the Tory Party is going to hit white Van man right where it hurts,
:03:42. > :03:48.right at the exhaust pipe and ensure that he is paying more tax on a
:03:49. > :03:51.whole. This is the whole issue. We are being appalled by two strong
:03:52. > :03:58.forces, demographic change and the need to raise taxes in this post
:03:59. > :04:02.Brexit world. By the Conservatives to get hot under the collar when
:04:03. > :04:07.people say the economy is not faring as well as it could under them. We
:04:08. > :04:15.have seen since EE referendum the economy has been faring pretty well.
:04:16. > :04:18.Brexit has not happened yet. Another reason to have an early election
:04:19. > :04:27.before the pain of Brexit hits. The Tories reputation, Philip Hammond
:04:28. > :04:31.tried to raise taxes in his budget, his first budget as Chancellor and
:04:32. > :04:37.tried to put up national insurance. That was a bomb in itself was that
:04:38. > :04:42.it fell apart within days. One reason is they have to escape, they
:04:43. > :04:50.have to escape from the 2015 manifesto. David Cameron thought the
:04:51. > :04:53.Tories would not be in power. They promised no tax increases, no
:04:54. > :04:56.national insurance increases at all during the lifetime of the
:04:57. > :05:02.parliament. That cannot happen when you have a social care crisis. The
:05:03. > :05:06.NHS is falling apart, education in England and Scotland as well. The
:05:07. > :05:10.other thing which is interesting, those of us long enough in the tooth
:05:11. > :05:14.to remember the bombshell imagery used by the Conservatives in an
:05:15. > :05:21.election some years ago saying that Labour were about to drop it. They
:05:22. > :05:26.are turning that on its head. They are waiting to find out whether
:05:27. > :05:31.Labour can trumpet. In the last election they tried to say they
:05:32. > :05:37.would follow the Tory tax spending plan and the issue here is whether
:05:38. > :05:43.Labour will come out tomorrow and say they are. They have already
:05:44. > :05:46.broken that orthodoxy. John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor,
:05:47. > :05:51.has said, if you are rich, we are coming to get you. By Richie means
:05:52. > :06:03.70,000. 70,000 does not seem rich to me. If you are earning 20... Most
:06:04. > :06:11.people earn between 20 and 30,000. If you earn 70,000, you are rich. It
:06:12. > :06:17.says pay and this may. Tories ready to hit white van man. The Labour
:06:18. > :06:22.Party has said they will keep the triple lock. We do not know whether
:06:23. > :06:26.Theresa May well. Foreign aid will be increased. How far it will be
:06:27. > :06:31.increased, we do not know. There was a question earlier in the week about
:06:32. > :06:36.whether .7% of GDP for foreign aid would be maintained. This was
:06:37. > :06:42.wonderful. It showed global politics at its best and worst. Bill Gates
:06:43. > :06:47.came in and said, hold on a minute, you started the whole philanthropic
:06:48. > :06:51.movement to support countries that need to trade, need aid in order to
:06:52. > :06:58.so do, and also to increase the life expectancy. And indeed lowering
:06:59. > :07:04.poverty across the world. That has been increased. That is one of the
:07:05. > :07:10.major forces of capitalism. It has lowered global poverty. If we are
:07:11. > :07:13.now saying to the world, hold on a minute, we are tightening our purse
:07:14. > :07:17.strings were not give aid anymore. What does that say to other
:07:18. > :07:24.countries and what does that say about ourselves? As British we have
:07:25. > :07:29.pledged to hold firm on this. To say that .7 of our GDP is not that much.
:07:30. > :07:32.But she is saying is, hold on a minute, I'll be spending it
:07:33. > :07:39.correctly, in the right places, the right spaces. Are we giving on a
:07:40. > :07:48.macro level, it should be beginning on a micro level? As Britons, we
:07:49. > :07:55.need to acknowledge that. She has been firm on that. The manifestos
:07:56. > :07:59.will tell us where they stand. They'll be hastily written as we
:08:00. > :08:04.write scripts for this programme tonight. There is a short space of
:08:05. > :08:09.time to get the policies out. Theresa May is being pushed around,
:08:10. > :08:15.mostly by the media and the Telegraph. .7% is a terrible waste
:08:16. > :08:18.of money abroad when schools are collapsing in Britain. The
:08:19. > :08:27.counterargument is .7% is a minuscule amount to spend abroad. Is
:08:28. > :08:36.something Britain used to do so well. We might find ourselves who do
:08:37. > :08:44.get a bit raw hard power. At least Theresa May has come out and said it
:08:45. > :08:52.sticks. Sun readers earn quite a bit less than the average wage will stop
:08:53. > :08:58.it has no, no, no. The Sunnis against any increase in VAT, getting
:08:59. > :09:06.rid of the pension law. The sun is against. The triple lock might not
:09:07. > :09:17.disappear entirely. They might get rid of one of the locks. The triple
:09:18. > :09:22.lock is average earnings. It is 2.5%, or the rate of inflation,
:09:23. > :09:29.whichever is the high. Letters not forget, there is a cohort of women
:09:30. > :09:36.who are in the late 50s, early 60s, who have already been slapped either
:09:37. > :09:42.government. This is causing hardship for our mothers, our auntie 's, our
:09:43. > :09:47.grandmas. It is the whole idea that pension in itself should not be
:09:48. > :09:51.touched. It is already being chipped away at the edges, who is receiving
:09:52. > :09:55.it and whether it is guaranteed in certain forms. Eye-macro I am
:09:56. > :10:05.talking to my fellow near pensioner here. Speak for yourself. I will be
:10:06. > :10:08.working for a few years yet. We will face a demographic time bomb.
:10:09. > :10:17.There'll be no such thing as a lock because there will no door. Pensions
:10:18. > :10:22.have a triple lock. They are the biggest group that votes but also
:10:23. > :10:25.the group that has been best off in the last eight years. Pensioners, on
:10:26. > :10:31.the whole, have seen their lot improved. With the announcement they
:10:32. > :10:36.are making, given foreign aid is unpopular with some voters and the
:10:37. > :10:41.pension lock is popular, how much of these small details we have got so
:10:42. > :10:43.far is a function of the fact the Conservatives, in the opinion polls
:10:44. > :10:50.have such a big lead they feel they can afford to take that chance? Is
:10:51. > :10:58.it confidence or arrogance? Six weeks to go. A lock can happen. OK,
:10:59. > :11:01.the Tories of 48-24 in the polls. People say he has no chance to win.
:11:02. > :11:07.The first round has been OK. They said he could not win the
:11:08. > :11:12.leadership. He turned the polls around quite sharply. He is so far
:11:13. > :11:17.behind in the polls. 48-24 in the polls. I'm the guy who is 200-1
:11:18. > :11:30.against being the next Labour leader. The fears of Hammond tax
:11:31. > :11:33.bombshell. Theresa May hints at axing the pension triple lock.
:11:34. > :11:40.Philip Hammond must remember he tried to raise national insurance
:11:41. > :11:50.rates, didn't he? That have to be turned around very quickly. It's
:11:51. > :11:58.about who takes austerities? Is it the people who are there and can
:11:59. > :12:04.withstand the attack, as it were, on the public purse? On the other end
:12:05. > :12:08.you have the NHS crumbling, the idea of social care being in complete
:12:09. > :12:11.meltdown. We do not change in the next five years will be in serious
:12:12. > :12:17.trouble. Then we have the immigration issue. You both
:12:18. > :12:23.mentioned NHS and social care. Social care is getting a boost of
:12:24. > :12:26.more money. The NHS has had more money and overall spending has
:12:27. > :12:35.increased. The number of people using it has also gone up. It is not
:12:36. > :12:39.going to be about white van man, it is about where is my Gran. Which
:12:40. > :12:49.hospital will they be in and are they safe? We do not look at certain
:12:50. > :12:53.demographics. They will affect the elderly and the young who leave
:12:54. > :13:01.university and cannot afford homes because they have too much student
:13:02. > :13:06.debt. All we can say for certain is after the election we will all be
:13:07. > :13:12.paying more tax. Whoever is in government will need to raise funds.
:13:13. > :13:20.By Mac or they are not going to be too upfront about that. You cannot
:13:21. > :13:24.All the subjects we were talking All the subjects we were talking
:13:25. > :13:33.about have not been Brexit, have they? Brexit this, Brexit that. It
:13:34. > :13:40.felt lame and tired. It is like the visit to the dentist. Now, suddenly,
:13:41. > :13:47.the election is coming alive on a whole lot of issues. There will be a
:13:48. > :13:51.whole lot more. Don't you think it would be that the Liberal Democrats
:13:52. > :13:56.will try to talk about the idea of a softening Brexit. The Lib Dems would
:13:57. > :13:59.talk about the idea of getting back into Europe with a second
:14:00. > :14:11.referendum. They see a market for their policy.
:14:12. > :14:21.The Lib Dems have nine MPs. 56 the last time. Let's have a look at the
:14:22. > :14:29.times. A different story. President Trumper 's EU ahead of Britain in
:14:30. > :14:35.trade Q. Merkel lands Brexit victory for Brussels. Didn't Donald Trump
:14:36. > :14:42.say that Brexit was great for Britain. President Obama put us at
:14:43. > :14:46.the back of the queue. The warning from the president Obama
:14:47. > :14:52.Administration, we love you guys. Countries like to deal with the EU
:14:53. > :14:59.as a bloc. It took seven years for Canada to negotiate a deal with the
:15:00. > :15:04.EU. The whole idea, if we are sophisticated enough, what will we
:15:05. > :15:07.do? Sail around on the yacht Britannia and try and individually
:15:08. > :15:15.knock on doors to ensure that we are trading with countries of the world.
:15:16. > :15:20.In the times they are going on a different line. Knocking on doors is
:15:21. > :15:27.what we have been doing. Boris says we're going to get a deal. In
:15:28. > :15:34.Washington, they held hands and it looked good for a while. Now, back
:15:35. > :15:38.of the queue again. Angela Merkel has whispered into the year of
:15:39. > :15:46.Donald Trump at this transatlantic trade partnership which was giving
:15:47. > :15:50.us all last year. She said, it is not going to be that complicated.
:15:51. > :15:55.Donald Trump likes the deal and he likes a deal is simple. What will
:15:56. > :16:00.this do for the argument that we should retain membership of the
:16:01. > :16:04.single market if it is going to be more difficult to negotiate trade
:16:05. > :16:09.deals from outside? The analogy is, if I want to go and get all of my
:16:10. > :16:14.shopping in one place, I'm not going to walk down the high street to the
:16:15. > :16:21.fishmongers, the greengrocers, and the butchers. I want to go to one
:16:22. > :16:27.place to collect it all. The way the market forces have been moving over
:16:28. > :16:30.the past with industrialisation, the whole idea that the trade body will
:16:31. > :16:37.come together and deal with it. We cannot expect in this day and age
:16:38. > :16:45.that we are like Japan or Singapore. We Britain. We have to be part of
:16:46. > :17:01.the market. You're beginning to sound like a remoaner. The British
:17:02. > :17:06.argument is two things. The way our trade has adjusted from industrial
:17:07. > :17:09.times to today is how we have industrialised as a nation. We have
:17:10. > :17:15.links already with the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth has always found it
:17:16. > :17:27.good to use us as an entry point to the EU. The whole issue now, if
:17:28. > :17:38.we're proud of that, -- out of it, what influence to rehab? We are just
:17:39. > :17:48.the outside. Let us have a look at the i. You are sniggering in my ear!
:17:49. > :17:56.I'm just going through the sport process. The i is eye-catching.
:17:57. > :17:59.History made, it says, green campaigners celebrate as Britain
:18:00. > :18:04.plus manpower stations did not burn a single lump of coal yesterday.
:18:05. > :18:14.Exactly. This is what I am saying. The whole idea of dual referendum
:18:15. > :18:22.was based upon... Which one? The Scottish one. The oil price. Now it
:18:23. > :18:26.has collapsed a few years later. Who would have predicted that, even five
:18:27. > :18:32.years ago, that we would no longer be relying on our old friends, the
:18:33. > :18:36.fossil fuels, to power this industrialised nation? Things are
:18:37. > :18:46.changing quickly. If we do not keep a hold of it, we're going to get out
:18:47. > :18:50.of it. Coal fuelled the Industrial Revolution and everything that came
:18:51. > :18:55.with it. Here we are saying goodbye to coal. We said goodbye to coal. We
:18:56. > :19:02.have learned tonnes of it to keep the lights on. We may be moving to
:19:03. > :19:07.imported nuclear to keep our lights on in Britain until we build our own
:19:08. > :19:10.nuclear power stations. That is why we included it. It is interesting.
:19:11. > :19:34.That is it. Good evening. Some cooler weather
:19:35. > :19:39.this weekend but it will be much colder next week. Despite being
:19:40. > :19:40.cooler this weekend it looks as if most of us will