21/05/2017

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:00:00. > :00:00.fractures to his pelvis and head. That is all the sport. Now it is Ben

:00:00. > :00:10.Brown with the Papers. Hello and welcome to our look ahead

:00:11. > :00:13.to what the papers will be With me is the political commentator

:00:14. > :00:19.Vincent Moss and Kevin Schofield, Let's have a look at

:00:20. > :00:25.the front pages... The Sunday Telegraph leads with Tory

:00:26. > :00:29.plans to strip people of their knighthoods

:00:30. > :00:31.if their behaviour is deemed unacceptable, following claims

:00:32. > :00:33.the public has lost faith The Sunday Times

:00:34. > :00:41.reports a Tory wobble in the opinion polls,

:00:42. > :00:46.suggesting the Conservatives' lead The Observer reports that

:00:47. > :00:53.Theresa May's school meals plan 'could hit 900,000 poor

:00:54. > :00:55.children' and there are concerns it could punish Tory

:00:56. > :01:00.party target voters. The Dementia Tax Backlash

:01:01. > :01:03.is the Mail on Sunday's headline as the paper reports

:01:04. > :01:06.a Survation poll suggests the Tories lead has slipped by 5%

:01:07. > :01:09.after its pledge to make elderly people pay for care - but they're

:01:10. > :01:21.still 12% ahead of Labour. Mummy Kate takes charge on Pippa's

:01:22. > :01:35.big day" is the picture headline Let's kick off. The papers are

:01:36. > :01:40.reporting the poll is narrowing. A Tory wobble, the Sunday Times

:01:41. > :01:48.calling it. A real Tory wobble? Not really a good story, the polls had

:01:49. > :01:53.been showing a significant Tory lead, cut to the lowest since the

:01:54. > :01:58.election was called. The majority of 46 seats, which is far what Theresa

:01:59. > :02:02.May and supporters were hoping for. Largely to do with the manifesto

:02:03. > :02:10.released, which proposed the big cuts in social care, which proved

:02:11. > :02:14.unpopular. The fieldwork on the poll after the manifesto launch, people

:02:15. > :02:20.do not like it. Does that mean the Tory manifesto backfired? In

:02:21. > :02:26.relation to the Labour won, a couple of days before, it did. The polling

:02:27. > :02:31.suggested the Labour manifesto was very popular, eye-catching pledges.

:02:32. > :02:37.The Tory one is much more low-key, not a lot of meat in it. As Vincent

:02:38. > :02:42.says, the things that were eye-catching, they were cuts to

:02:43. > :02:48.pensioner hand-outs. Which, as we know, that is the group that tends

:02:49. > :02:53.to vote. You can see why there was nervousness in Conservative HQ. On

:02:54. > :02:57.the other hand, polls like this may work in their favour, encouraging

:02:58. > :03:05.people to come out and vote. No longer a foregone conclusion. A

:03:06. > :03:10.senior Conservative campaign source said the poll was helpful, focusing

:03:11. > :03:14.the mind of voters on the choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa

:03:15. > :03:20.May. Guarding against complacency in Tory ranks. That is where they would

:03:21. > :03:23.likely Tory campaign moving to. A choice between Theresa May and

:03:24. > :03:28.Jeremy Corbyn, Tory high command think that is one of their strong

:03:29. > :03:32.points. They look like a Conservative landslide, some

:03:33. > :03:37.conservatives may stay at home and not vote. It may get the votes

:03:38. > :03:42.motivated. The narrowing of the gap is helpful to the Conservatives,

:03:43. > :03:45.motivating their vote. A chance that Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime

:03:46. > :03:49.Minister. You need to get out there and stop that. They will not be

:03:50. > :03:56.disappointed that the gap is narrowing. If we look at the Mail on

:03:57. > :04:01.Sunday, similar story. Theresa May's hopes of an election landslide

:04:02. > :04:04.hitting a setback last night. The polls showing strong opposition to

:04:05. > :04:12.the plan to make more elderly people pay for care. We have to say, is

:04:13. > :04:16.still a big majority. Something like 46 seat majority. Still pretty

:04:17. > :04:22.large. Interesting, the wording of the intro. Hopes of a landslide, not

:04:23. > :04:31.hopes of winning. How big a margin of victory it will be? It remains in

:04:32. > :04:37.the area we are. I think it does show the campaign so far, the Tories

:04:38. > :04:43.calling the selection, we did not need to be having an election. Not

:04:44. > :04:48.one supposed to be until 2020, the campaign has been quite uninspired.

:04:49. > :04:56.A little bit complacent. Maybe this will be the impetus. Theresa May

:04:57. > :05:03.says every vote counts, that has been her message every day. It will

:05:04. > :05:15.do. This is the key, in terms of the scale, we know the result really. We

:05:16. > :05:20.just don't know the score. For the successful Theresa May election, the

:05:21. > :05:24.majority has to go up to 70, 100 seats. Conservatives down talking

:05:25. > :05:29.that, but that is what they are looking for. That is why every vote

:05:30. > :05:33.does count. In the detail of the Mail on Sunday poll, some of the

:05:34. > :05:37.social care cutting figures, unsurprisingly 28% approve of the

:05:38. > :05:44.planned cuts in social care, seeing people only keeping up to 100,000 of

:05:45. > :05:47.their income. This is the same problem Labour face, when they

:05:48. > :05:51.pronounced it. It was pronounced as a death tax. There needs to be a

:05:52. > :05:57.cross-party alliance to deal with the issue was social care. At the

:05:58. > :06:00.moment, the time that people raise it, and you could argue the

:06:01. > :06:07.Conservatives are doing the right thing, as soon as the other side

:06:08. > :06:12.raises, 1-party pounces on it. There is no real solution to social care.

:06:13. > :06:18.I contacted Labour people last night when the polls were coming in. They

:06:19. > :06:20.are not getting overoptimistic. They are basing their assumptions on the

:06:21. > :06:27.message they're getting back on people's doors. They are saying

:06:28. > :06:32.these polls do not feel right. The feedback on the doorstep is not

:06:33. > :06:37.great. The feedback on the doorstep is pretty negative about their

:06:38. > :06:42.chances? One senior MPs said to me from it feels like the Tory campaign

:06:43. > :06:49.has stalled for now. But still under three weeks ago. Plenty of time for

:06:50. > :06:57.them to increase that. Let's go to the Observer. Stories about school

:06:58. > :07:02.meals proposals. The school meals plan would hit 900,000 poor

:07:03. > :07:09.children. Implications on Tory target voters. That they could be

:07:10. > :07:16.punished. A piece of research by the education policy Institute. 900,000

:07:17. > :07:19.poorer children. 600,000 younger children coming from ordinary

:07:20. > :07:24.working families. Very much saying this could hit people from lower

:07:25. > :07:30.income families, but people at work. The problem with a lot of the

:07:31. > :07:34.Conservative policies, and the voter understanding, we don't know where

:07:35. > :07:39.the axe will fall. Same goes with social care policies school meals,

:07:40. > :07:45.winter testing fuel allowance. Policies where the Conservatives

:07:46. > :07:50.have not the who will be affected. The risk is everyone thinks they

:07:51. > :07:54.could be effective. A very damaging effect on the target group of

:07:55. > :07:59.voters. We know they do turn out. They are worried about these issues.

:08:00. > :08:02.Families, and that the core issue, they don't know whether they'll be

:08:03. > :08:08.effective. Conservatives, if they had sense, they would put clarity on

:08:09. > :08:13.that. Most of you will be fine, but we need to raise money somewhere.

:08:14. > :08:19.This Observer story mentions, it undermines potentially Theresa May's

:08:20. > :08:25.promised to help families from those just about managing. When you look

:08:26. > :08:31.at the detail of the story, the headline is slightly misleading. Not

:08:32. > :08:37.900,000 poor children. About 100,000 in relative poverty. It is about

:08:38. > :08:43.700,000 of these just about managing working families. They are

:08:44. > :08:49.struggling to get by, but not actually poor. What the Tories would

:08:50. > :08:54.say, the poorest children will still get free school meals, as they did

:08:55. > :08:58.before this policy was brought in. What is interesting as well, the

:08:59. > :09:02.lack of detailed costings which the Tories have put forward, in contrast

:09:03. > :09:09.to Labour, which is annoyed Labour, they are under so much pressure to

:09:10. > :09:14.say how they would pay for their pledges, they produce a separate

:09:15. > :09:19.costings document. The Tories they think have got away with putting out

:09:20. > :09:24.their plans without any price tag. Once you drill down into the detail,

:09:25. > :09:27.the Conservatives will have to say these people will lose out, but

:09:28. > :09:32.these people will be protected. Another way of looking at all of

:09:33. > :09:38.this, the Tories know they have a healthy, commanding lead, some of

:09:39. > :09:41.their manifesto proposals are not that popular, but they feel they

:09:42. > :09:45.have the right thing to do, and they can afford to put out the right

:09:46. > :09:50.thing they think they should be doing for the country even though

:09:51. > :09:53.they are not popular. It shows confidence, that they can put

:09:54. > :09:57.unpopular policies in the manifesto because they think they can win.

:09:58. > :10:02.Shows a sign what faces us ahead post Brexit. A clear sense that

:10:03. > :10:07.money needs to be raised, taxes need to be raised, certain things which

:10:08. > :10:15.have been universal or three need to go. That set my alarm bells ringing.

:10:16. > :10:19.This is potentially a huge problem coming down the track. Theresa May

:10:20. > :10:25.seeking a mandate for that, in terms of potential tax raises. Significant

:10:26. > :10:29.things done from the manifesto, ruling out certain tax rises.

:10:30. > :10:37.National Insurance, things like that. A lots of scope, seeking scope

:10:38. > :10:45.for potential change. Let's go to the Sunday Times, this is an inside

:10:46. > :10:50.story. The message they are hearing on the doorstep, the Labour

:10:51. > :10:55.candidates. Do not mention Jeremy Corbyn, Labour candidates told.

:10:56. > :11:01.Really good story. Tim Shipman, of the Sunday Times, getting his hands

:11:02. > :11:05.of a recording of a conference call. Each morning the party has a

:11:06. > :11:10.conference call, to discuss the day ahead. How the previous day has

:11:11. > :11:15.gone. They get feedback from the ground. Steve Howell, Jeremy

:11:16. > :11:21.Corbyn's deputy director of communications recorded in this tape

:11:22. > :11:25.being quizzed on what to say, because Jeremy Corbyn keeps coming

:11:26. > :11:29.up on the doorstep. Voters concerned about Jeremy Corbyn. He says don't

:11:30. > :11:37.talk about Jeremy. Total but leadership. Talk about the

:11:38. > :11:46.manifesto. It shows there is that concern amongst Labour voters, and

:11:47. > :11:52.Labour HQ. The core members of team Corbin, acknowledging Jeremy is a

:11:53. > :11:55.drag on the polling numbers. People already speculating if it is a bad

:11:56. > :12:02.defeat for Labour, what happens to Jeremy Corbyn? No doubt, the further

:12:03. > :12:06.away from London you get, you hear of lifelong Labour voters saying I'm

:12:07. > :12:10.fine with the policies, the problem is a leader. They are advised to

:12:11. > :12:15.talk about the policy is not the leadership. A significant quote, if

:12:16. > :12:23.there was a Labour government, it would be collective leadership. They

:12:24. > :12:28.are acknowledging Jeremy Corbyn is a problem. Looks like the

:12:29. > :12:32.Conservatives will win, Labour will move, then it will move to what

:12:33. > :12:37.happens to Jeremy Corbyn. They comment on some of the papers saying

:12:38. > :12:42.he should go immediately. Others say he should stay on indefinitely.

:12:43. > :12:51.Maybe not even to oversee a leadership contest, but as leader.

:12:52. > :12:55.It would be popular with Jeremy Corbyn supporters across the

:12:56. > :12:58.country. Let's move to the Mail on Sunday. Donald Trump in Saudi

:12:59. > :13:05.Arabia. We have been reporting on with Frank Gardner, who is there.

:13:06. > :13:15.The Mail on Sunday saying it is a last chance to. Strong, he has not

:13:16. > :13:22.been there that long. Seems to be dealt by controversy at home. He is

:13:23. > :13:26.probably turning up, a good time for him to get at the country. Focus on

:13:27. > :13:32.other things. The world is collectively holding its breath

:13:33. > :13:39.about this speech. Anything, literally anything could happen.

:13:40. > :13:43.When Donald Trump opens his mouth. When he sends a tweet. We have to

:13:44. > :13:47.hope it happens without incident. He will be glad to leave Washington

:13:48. > :13:55.behind, the whole rusher, James Coney controversy. That will still

:13:56. > :13:59.be there when he gets back. He's supposed to not like long foreign

:14:00. > :14:04.trips. Saying I want to do fewer days, shorten the trip. At the same

:14:05. > :14:06.time, quite before him. He feels relieved to be getting out of

:14:07. > :14:22.Washington, DC. I think so, most US presidents spend more time on

:14:23. > :14:27.their second term on long trips. He is going to Italy as well. He

:14:28. > :14:31.prefers staying at home, Murad home in the Trump property a

:14:32. > :14:36.cheeseburger. He is out there talking about jobs. Huge trade

:14:37. > :14:41.deals, what he said he would do. It is great to get away from the

:14:42. > :14:51.domestic strife at home. Interesting to see whether he tweets from Saudi

:14:52. > :14:55.Arabia, or sticks to the script. He was saying, looking forward to my

:14:56. > :15:01.big trip. Like 16-year-old going on his first foreign trip. Incredible.

:15:02. > :15:08.Of course, the wedding, let's talk about that. The per's big day. The

:15:09. > :15:13.Sunday express, they have Kate taking charge on paper's big day.

:15:14. > :15:19.Telling the children to be quiet. A great picture, because apart from

:15:20. > :15:23.the happy couple kissing outside the church, which most papers have used.

:15:24. > :15:27.The express choosing a picture summing up what weddings will be for

:15:28. > :15:34.many families, taking children along. The paranoia in the quiet

:15:35. > :15:39.moments will my kids run wild? And scream, or the rest of it. We know

:15:40. > :15:45.that George trod on Pippa Middleton's train, there were tears

:15:46. > :15:49.and other pictures. You can see she's worried about what would

:15:50. > :15:53.happen. It is a picture that anyone who has been to a wedding will

:15:54. > :15:57.understand. Not many people have a Spitfire flying past and all the

:15:58. > :16:02.rest of it. That's it, they will associate with very much. Nine pages

:16:03. > :16:08.of coverage in the express. A great photo spread. As close to a royal

:16:09. > :16:17.wedding as we will get until Harry pops the question. That will be the

:16:18. > :16:22.next one. I have no inside track. I thought you were going to reveal

:16:23. > :16:26.something, inside clues with obviously she looks fantastic.

:16:27. > :16:32.Difficult not to look fantastic in the wedding dress that cost ?40,000.

:16:33. > :16:37.Establishing the amount of money. Expect cheaper versions in high

:16:38. > :16:41.street stores. Interesting that making Mark Rule did not turn up,

:16:42. > :16:47.ruining the bride's though. She went to the reception event. Shots of her

:16:48. > :16:51.in the car. No pictures of her upstaging the bride. That went at

:16:52. > :16:57.the Palace and the Royal family wanted. As a Scotsman I was pleased

:16:58. > :17:06.to see they had haggis bites as part of the wedding food. Fantastic. Is

:17:07. > :17:07.that tasty? Very tasty. Can confirm that was great, thank you for

:17:08. > :17:08.joining us. Thanks to Vincent Moss

:17:09. > :17:15.and Kevin Schofield. Just a reminder we take a look

:17:16. > :17:31.at tomorrow's front pages every Hello, Sunday should turn out to be

:17:32. > :17:36.a drier brighter affair for many parts of the British Isles. Dan was

:17:37. > :17:39.way on the western side of Scotland, way on the western side of Scotland,

:17:40. > :17:40.but things will change, I