02/09/2017

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:00:00. > :00:00.my guess is Marcel Thereux, and we are talking about his story about

:00:07. > :00:20.storytelling, and why it matters. Hello and welcome to our look ahead

:00:21. > :00:24.to what the papers will be With me are Nigel Nelson,

:00:25. > :00:27.who is the political editor at the Sunday Mirror

:00:28. > :00:30.and Sunday People, and the political Tomorrow's front pages: The Observer

:00:31. > :00:34.says that the Prime Minister, Theresa May, is facing a revolt

:00:35. > :00:37.from remain supporting Conservative The same story leads

:00:38. > :00:47.the Sunday Telegraph, with Tory rebels being told to back

:00:48. > :00:50.Brexit or get Corbyn. The Sunday Times also leads

:00:51. > :00:53.with a Brexit story. It says Theresa May has secretly

:00:54. > :00:56.agreed a ?50 billion divorce bill The Mail on Sunday claims that

:00:57. > :01:02.Theresa May ignored a memo from Sir Lynton Crosby

:01:03. > :01:05.telling her not to risk a snap And the Express front page has

:01:06. > :01:10.the news that Moors Murderer, Ian Brady, who died in May,

:01:11. > :01:29.left presents to pen-pals including So let's begin, and Nigel, I will

:01:30. > :01:34.get you to kick us off this time. We will start with the Sunday Telegraph

:01:35. > :01:37.where we are going Brexit to begin with. Tory rebels being rapped over

:01:38. > :01:43.the knuckles in advance of a busy week. Parliament comes back on

:01:44. > :01:47.Tuesday after a long break and the first thing they are faced with is

:01:48. > :01:54.the great repeal bill, now they have dropped the great. That puts all EU

:01:55. > :01:59.law into British law on Brexit date, which is basically quite sensible.

:02:00. > :02:01.However, a lot of Tory MPs do not like this very much. They are

:02:02. > :02:04.worried about the government basically taking too many powers

:02:05. > :02:10.away from Parliament and handing it to Whitehall. So the Telegraph as

:02:11. > :02:15.saying that six of them may well rebel. It could be even more than

:02:16. > :02:19.that. At the same time, Labour objects to the bill because it

:02:20. > :02:23.doesn't put in the protections they want to see in it and they will be

:02:24. > :02:26.voting against it and they are encouraging the Tories to come

:02:27. > :02:31.across. In the Sunday papers, a charm offensive by Damian Green,

:02:32. > :02:35.first Secretary of State, who was effectively Theresa May's Deputy

:02:36. > :02:42.Prime Minister. He is appealing for Tory unity. Theresa May is in every

:02:43. > :02:46.paper asking for Tory unity as well. David Davis is in another Sunday

:02:47. > :02:50.paper doing the same thing. It is quite a co-ordinated effort.

:02:51. > :02:54.Probably she will get through this week. If she doesn't, the government

:02:55. > :02:59.falls, which is their warning. And as the Telegraph says, then you end

:03:00. > :03:03.up with Jeremy Corbyn, as they would be a general election. Probably

:03:04. > :03:08.these MPs will hold their fire and try and amend the bill in committee.

:03:09. > :03:14.Still a problem for her because she relies completely on this bill to

:03:15. > :03:18.get Brexit through. It is all about numbers, isn't it? It undermines

:03:19. > :03:23.completely her slim majority, this absolutely way the then seeing which

:03:24. > :03:27.is going to be the difference between her staying in power and

:03:28. > :03:33.Jeremy Corbyn getting in -- wafer-thin thing. Or possibly Brexit

:03:34. > :03:37.never happening and ending up with a hung parliament again. We were

:03:38. > :03:41.talking earlier and saying I feel like I have heard this argument

:03:42. > :03:46.about could the Tories be united and put their splits to one side? I feel

:03:47. > :03:53.like I have heard that all my adult life. And there is Bill Cash quoted,

:03:54. > :03:57.just to make sure it feels like a rerun. You think either get on and

:03:58. > :04:02.do the job that you have got us into by calling the referendum that David

:04:03. > :04:06.Cameron... And we will come at him later, and just get to it. But this

:04:07. > :04:12.is all the worst sort of venal party politics. You have Corbyn who

:04:13. > :04:15.doesn't want an election, you have Theresa May, who doesn't want an

:04:16. > :04:20.election because Corbyn might win. Then you have the SNP and Democrats

:04:21. > :04:25.and a few rebels and you have Conservative MPs saying don't bully

:04:26. > :04:30.us, we will do what we think is right for the country. I think that

:04:31. > :04:35.is probably right. And the election is quite important. Although Jeremy

:04:36. > :04:38.Corbyn has to say he wants an election, he doesn't really want to

:04:39. > :04:43.have to negotiate Brexit. Much better to pick up the pieces right

:04:44. > :04:48.at the end of it and try and put right anything that might be wrong.

:04:49. > :04:53.Talking about election, much has been made this week, and it has

:04:54. > :04:57.picked up in articles tomorrow, about Theresa May saying she is in

:04:58. > :05:03.it for the long-term and will be around for the next election. That

:05:04. > :05:08.has caused some disquiet. I read a story last week naming the date that

:05:09. > :05:12.she would go. This is making the assumption that as she had indicated

:05:13. > :05:17.to Tory MPs, she wouldn't stay beyond September 20 19. I did a

:05:18. > :05:21.story working out the date from that with Tory election rules and the

:05:22. > :05:29.Parliamentary timetable, and 30 August 2019, a Friday, when she

:05:30. > :05:33.would have to quit. Suddenly she goes to Japan and make the

:05:34. > :05:37.announcement she will stay, which astonished all of us. Not least the

:05:38. > :05:43.Tory party. You had Lord Heseltine coming out, Grant Shapps, pointing

:05:44. > :05:47.out that this is not in her gift. The Tory party decides the leader,

:05:48. > :05:53.not the leader. And she was asked directly by one of our BBC political

:05:54. > :05:58.correspondent, and once she says she is not Steyn, people will say it is

:05:59. > :06:03.unstable, and we can't negotiate with her. She showed the ability to

:06:04. > :06:08.mess up the election and what she has said is I will stay as long as

:06:09. > :06:12.the Tory party and the country want me. That is all you have to say. You

:06:13. > :06:18.are not putting a timetable on it. The next question is does that mean

:06:19. > :06:23.after Brexit? She could repeat the same answer, I will stay as long as

:06:24. > :06:27.and so on. It has gone down well, calming the waters in the Tory

:06:28. > :06:33.party. Suddenly she says this and kicks up a huge storm again. Another

:06:34. > :06:37.huge storm brewing in the Sunday Times, suggesting she is getting too

:06:38. > :06:41.busy and making secret deals before anything is announced. And as Chris

:06:42. > :06:46.Mason said when you were talking to him earlier, it is so secret it is

:06:47. > :06:52.on the front page of the Sunday Times. Allegedly she has agreed a

:06:53. > :06:55.?50 billion Brexit deal, so she wants to approve this after the

:06:56. > :06:59.Conservative Party conference in October, in a bid to try and

:07:00. > :07:04.kickstart talks with the European Union, and Britain would pay between

:07:05. > :07:11.?7 billion and ?17 billion a year to Brussels, and Downing Street

:07:12. > :07:16.completely denying this and saying there is no truth in it. A source

:07:17. > :07:24.close to Tim Shipman or close to Number Ten, I should say, sorry, a

:07:25. > :07:28.source close to Theresa May, says they are planning how to do the

:07:29. > :07:33.Brexit Bill, and whether to do it as an early payment. Again, it is

:07:34. > :07:37.coming back to numbers, and we still don't know what the bill is going to

:07:38. > :07:42.be. We still don't know what the cost of the negotiations is going to

:07:43. > :07:48.be. And over what a long period of time. And rather oddly, I think,

:07:49. > :07:52.given that most Sunday papers rather like doing polls and things, they

:07:53. > :07:56.have a survey saying seven out of ten voters and four out of ten

:07:57. > :08:03.Tories disagreed with Mrs May's assertion that she should fight the

:08:04. > :08:09.next election. 30% of voters want her to fight on, 40% want her to

:08:10. > :08:14.quit before 2022. I find it odd that they didn't put that further up.

:08:15. > :08:18.When it comes to this, it is time we got figures out there. A whole of

:08:19. > :08:25.the negotiation is being held up as of money, and if Barnier says this

:08:26. > :08:29.is the money we want from you, then we are in a negotiation. It is David

:08:30. > :08:34.Davis's duty to beat him down on whatever it is but at least we have

:08:35. > :08:37.a starting point. It is the fact we have no figure which means we are

:08:38. > :08:43.having talks about talks six months after Article 50 was triggered.

:08:44. > :08:47.Let's go back in time with the Mail on Sunday, because they have a story

:08:48. > :08:52.which takes us back to the snap general election and that Theresa

:08:53. > :08:57.May was warned it was a catastrophic mistake. Yes, so this is a secret

:08:58. > :09:02.paper which has been leaked to the Mail on Sunday, and it is a memo

:09:03. > :09:08.from Sir Lynton Crosby, the Australian election guru who helped

:09:09. > :09:14.David Cameron wind two elections and Boris Johnson when two terms as

:09:15. > :09:19.Mayor of London. He was away in Fiji on a long planned family holiday for

:09:20. > :09:26.his wife's birthday. Does he wish he had stayed there now? I suspect he

:09:27. > :09:29.probably does. He was told that they were thinking of going for an early

:09:30. > :09:33.election and he said I don't think that is a very good idea, mate. Not

:09:34. > :09:40.to the Prime Minister, but somebody quite senior, and said what research

:09:41. > :09:45.have you been doing? He is... I don't know him, you probably do,

:09:46. > :09:58.Nigel, but he is renowned for being absolutely rigid. His message was

:09:59. > :10:02.who do you trust on the economy, and not on foxhunting and everything

:10:03. > :10:06.else. His advice was clearly this is a high-risk strategy, there is no

:10:07. > :10:09.guarantee you will get the landslide the polls are currently predicting.

:10:10. > :10:14.And of course, she ignored it and we all know now what a total shambles

:10:15. > :10:24.it was. And mainly the blame game, inevitably, goes back to Fiona Hill

:10:25. > :10:27.and Nick Timothy. You have a fascinating, a great... Well, an

:10:28. > :10:35.interesting picture comparing Nick Timothy to Rasputin, mostly in line

:10:36. > :10:39.with the beard. The character has a bit to do with it as well. Or a Mac

:10:40. > :10:46.and we hear this thing that we have heard so often, that Theresa May's

:10:47. > :10:52.him ignored Crosby's advice out of spite. You get an adviser who thinks

:10:53. > :10:57.they have more power, and they exclude other people, and that is

:10:58. > :11:02.where you end up with a shambles. What did you make of this, Nigel?

:11:03. > :11:07.There is a lot of unpicking of who said what. It is a blame game. What

:11:08. > :11:11.is interesting about the article is Lynton Crosby was responsible for

:11:12. > :11:15.making a presidential campaign and making Theresa May the centre of it.

:11:16. > :11:21.Clearly a mistake, she wasn't up to that. Equally you had Nick Timothy

:11:22. > :11:25.and Fiona Hill, with an iron grip on Downing Street already causing

:11:26. > :11:29.problems, and making a huge cache of the party manifesto. Everybody takes

:11:30. > :11:33.the blame for it. Ultimately it is with the Prime Minister because it

:11:34. > :11:37.was her choice to call the election in the first place. We will move

:11:38. > :11:41.away from Brexit to something totally different. This is in the

:11:42. > :11:46.Sunday express, about health tourism, particularly on the issue

:11:47. > :11:54.of cancer. It is a fascinating piece, this one. It is from Doctor

:11:55. > :11:59.Thomas, a cancer specialist at the Royal Marsden Hospital in London and

:12:00. > :12:02.he says that one in 20 patients he treats as a health tourist.

:12:03. > :12:10.Interestingly he is talking about the fact that the bill for health

:12:11. > :12:13.tourism is probably hugely underrated. At the moment it is

:12:14. > :12:17.reckoned at about ?2 billion, he thinks it is much higher. The

:12:18. > :12:20.government are trying to do something about this. They want

:12:21. > :12:25.people who come in and are not entitled to NHS treatment to put a

:12:26. > :12:28.deposit down, at least to pay for the nonurgent treatment they have.

:12:29. > :12:32.What Doctor Thomas says it is they don't have the staff in hospitals to

:12:33. > :12:39.actually administer that. So effectively not working. Clearly

:12:40. > :12:43.warning like that from a person like that needs to be taken seriously.

:12:44. > :12:47.They have a way of dealing with it. If it is not working they need to

:12:48. > :12:51.make it work. I will have to rattle through, because there is a lot we

:12:52. > :12:58.want to get through. Onto the Observer, and at the bottom, not

:12:59. > :13:03.their main story because they were on Brexit as well. A clampdown on

:13:04. > :13:08.fixed odds betting. There has been a lot of concern about this,

:13:09. > :13:11.particularly from gambling addiction charities, because touchscreen

:13:12. > :13:16.roulette things, and the argument is that gamblers at the moment can play

:13:17. > :13:22.casino games with stakes of up to ?100 every 20 seconds, which in

:13:23. > :13:26.extreme cases means a player can gamble away ?80,000 in an hour.

:13:27. > :13:33.Gambling charities, addiction charities, want the stakes to be

:13:34. > :13:37.lowered to about ?2. Now, obviously that would have implications for the

:13:38. > :13:41.Treasury, and so there has been a bit of... Sort of I think, that the

:13:42. > :13:46.Treasury wanted to keep money but obviously be seen to do the right

:13:47. > :13:49.thing. You have the Department of culture, media and sport saying they

:13:50. > :13:57.must do something about this. In a letter to the Bishop of St Albans,

:13:58. > :14:00.one Doctor Alan Smith, the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has

:14:01. > :14:04.assured the Bishop that they are going to do something about it, and

:14:05. > :14:08.they are going to look at it. It is four columns of a story that is the

:14:09. > :14:12.government rights to the Bishop to say don't worry about it, we are

:14:13. > :14:16.looking at it. But they have to lower the stakes, because there is

:14:17. > :14:19.not a lot else you can do to control this. And have fewer of them on the

:14:20. > :14:23.high street. They target poorer areas. We have been running a

:14:24. > :14:28.campaign on the Sunday people the two years about this. It is

:14:29. > :14:31.essential you have fewer of them, the stakes are much lower, and stop

:14:32. > :14:36.targeting poorer and vulnerable people.

:14:37. > :14:38.Let's go back to the Sunday Telegraph

:14:39. > :14:42.Let's go back to the Sunday Telegraph and the bottom of the

:14:43. > :14:46.page, tucked away, a story about the NHS terrifying older women who

:14:47. > :14:53.choose to have a child in later life. This has come from Professor

:14:54. > :14:56.Cathy Warwick, the outgoing chief executive of the Royal College of

:14:57. > :15:02.midwives and a midwife herself, saying health professionals have

:15:03. > :15:06.overstated the risks attached to age of older mothers... I think as you

:15:07. > :15:12.probably know, I think it is something like 35 or 36 and you are

:15:13. > :15:17.a geriatric as a mother. Devastating. Terribly upsetting for

:15:18. > :15:23.women. What she is saying is the sensible, if you are healthy, your

:15:24. > :15:27.risks are only a little bit greater than if you have a baby in your 20s

:15:28. > :15:32.but there are a lot more women having children in their 40s, there

:15:33. > :15:37.are more children born to women over 40 than under 20 but nevertheless,

:15:38. > :15:41.the facts speak for themselves, rates of stillbirth and Down's

:15:42. > :15:48.syndrome do increase with older pregnancies. My mother was over 40

:15:49. > :15:53.and I'm still here. And perfectly normal as far as we can tell! Let's

:15:54. > :15:58.finish on the story tucked inside the Sunday express, Nigel, a picture

:15:59. > :16:01.of David Cameron with this shorts on at the corn free music festival but

:16:02. > :16:08.he's planning on going further afield? He's going to south Dakota,

:16:09. > :16:14.to the wild west. A lovely story, he has an ?800,000 publishing deal, he

:16:15. > :16:19.makes ?125,000 an hour for a speech, he's not really on this uppers but

:16:20. > :16:24.he's going to Rapids city in South Dakota and he's going to give a talk

:16:25. > :16:29.for ?5 a head and I hope they thoroughly enjoy it. Apparently the

:16:30. > :16:36.tickets are selling rather well. Rapids city is a place where there's

:16:37. > :16:54.a civics centre and its organised by... It's the Jonty Bloom Vukovic

:16:55. > :16:58.foundation speaker series. In 1994 Mrs Thatcher gave a speech in the

:16:59. > :17:06.town, it is close to the town of Devon. They have heard Colin Powell

:17:07. > :17:12.and Benazir Bhutto. The place to be for ?5, $11, and ?2 30 if you are a

:17:13. > :17:16.student. The suggestion from the headline would be it is all going

:17:17. > :17:23.down the pan but he is esteemed company. I hope he puts some better

:17:24. > :17:25.clothes on! Thanks very much, Jo and Nigel, great to have you with us

:17:26. > :17:25.again. Coming up next it's time

:17:26. > :17:46.for Meet the Author. A story about storytelling, that

:17:47. > :17:48.myth and belief, about human curiosity and our weakness for a

:17:49. > :17:49.secret.