0:00:14 > 0:00:17Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be
0:00:18 > 0:00:20bringing us tomorrow.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23With me are Caroline Wheeler, deputy political editor
0:00:23 > 0:00:33at the Sunday Times, and Ben Chu, economics editor of the Independent.
0:00:33 > 0:00:37Tomorrow's front pages - starting with...
0:00:37 > 0:00:41The Financial Times leads with the Chancellor's budget,
0:00:41 > 0:00:43writing that it's been overshadowed by the biggest downgrade in economic
0:00:43 > 0:00:46growth since the financial crisis.
0:00:46 > 0:00:49The Telegraph headlines with the budget's abolishing
0:00:49 > 0:00:53of stamp duty for some first-time buyers.
0:00:53 > 0:00:56The Metro says that Philip Hammond has tried to help millions get
0:00:56 > 0:00:58onto the housing ladder, but that experts believe it
0:00:58 > 0:01:01will just raise prices.
0:01:01 > 0:01:03The Express writes that Number 11 have unveiled
0:01:03 > 0:01:07a £3 billion package for Brexit, which the paper says,
0:01:07 > 0:01:10shows the UK is ready to leave the EU without a deal.
0:01:10 > 0:01:16The Times says the Chancellor has eased off austerity
0:01:16 > 0:01:18with a £25 billion giveaway to counter political
0:01:18 > 0:01:19and economic pressures.
0:01:19 > 0:01:22The Guardian claims Mr Hammond is trying to mask Britain's
0:01:22 > 0:01:23deteriorating economic situation by pledging to revive
0:01:23 > 0:01:26the homeowning dream.
0:01:26 > 0:01:29And the Mail takes back it's nickname for the Chancellor -
0:01:29 > 0:01:39Eeyore - which he was given for his gloomy outlook on Brexit.
0:01:40 > 0:01:45They have all taken slightly different takes. Let's start with
0:01:45 > 0:01:49the Financial Times. A grim outlook overshadows housing drive. That kind
0:01:49 > 0:01:55of sums up the budget. Some positive headlines for some people, but
0:01:55 > 0:02:00things not looking too good on the economic front. That's right, and
0:02:00 > 0:02:05that's happened with a few announcements and economic words,
0:02:05 > 0:02:09where he basically described the fact that the growth forecast had
0:02:09 > 0:02:14been slashed on the run-up to this spending review period, which gave
0:02:14 > 0:02:20him less wiggle room to do interesting things with. When we
0:02:20 > 0:02:24started this budget cycle, it always begins after party conference
0:02:24 > 0:02:30season. The initial trajectory was that this would be a big, bold, make
0:02:30 > 0:02:38or break budget for the Chancellor, a career show stopping budget. The
0:02:38 > 0:02:43fact that these forecasts came out at the same time meant he had
0:02:43 > 0:02:46limited ability to make announcements, and that set the tone
0:02:46 > 0:02:51for the budget, which is why he got that out the way to begin with as
0:02:51 > 0:02:57almost a warning shot to MPs. Saying that the economy is not doing as
0:02:57 > 0:03:03well as expected, so downgrade your expectation a bit.
0:03:03 > 0:03:08The Telegraph has an awful lot on the budget on its front page.
0:03:08 > 0:03:14Outlook gloomy, but there to be proved wrong. It is relatively early
0:03:14 > 0:03:19days for Theresa May, but not for the Conservative government. They
0:03:19 > 0:03:24will have wanted better headlines about the economy.Of course.
0:03:24 > 0:03:30Hammond came in saying, I'm really up beat and positive about Brexit,
0:03:30 > 0:03:33trying to throw off this Eeyore name that he's been given for being too
0:03:33 > 0:03:41gloomy and downbeat. Then he had to present this catastrophically bad
0:03:41 > 0:03:46growth forecast. These are the worst five-year growth forecast ever
0:03:46 > 0:03:51produced by the OBR since it was set up. Never have they had growth
0:03:51 > 0:03:56forecast lower than 2%. This is the worst of any of the Treasury
0:03:56 > 0:04:03forecasts as well.What is causing it?Interestingly, everyone is
0:04:03 > 0:04:08implying it's about Brexit. But it isn't. The OBR has decided that our
0:04:08 > 0:04:18productivity and growth potential is weaker than had been thought. Since
0:04:18 > 0:04:24the financial crisis, it was assumed that our growth would bounce back to
0:04:24 > 0:04:282.5%, but that hasn't happened. That's why the growth forecast is
0:04:28 > 0:04:34bad and borrowing is up, and why the outlook is bleak.Let's look at some
0:04:34 > 0:04:41of the positives. A helping hand for first-time buyers, but even then,
0:04:41 > 0:04:45experts are saying, it's not as good as you think.Another surprising
0:04:45 > 0:04:52thing about the budget, other the fact that Philip Hammond cracked a
0:04:52 > 0:04:59few jokes, such as saying that he'd asked the Prime Minister to bring
0:04:59 > 0:05:04him some cough sweets.He looked really happy about that.He did. The
0:05:04 > 0:05:11stamp duty announcement was one of those that had been widely rumoured
0:05:11 > 0:05:17that it might come about. This is to help first-time buyers. There's been
0:05:17 > 0:05:22a feeling within the political movement, particularly since Jeremy
0:05:22 > 0:05:28Corbyn started making key announcements around younger voters,
0:05:28 > 0:05:31that the Conservatives were not doing enough to support younger
0:05:31 > 0:05:37voters, and that there was a intergenerational unfairness,
0:05:37 > 0:05:41particularly around housing. This was their way of trying to help them
0:05:41 > 0:05:47to do this, reducing the amount of tax they pay when buying their first
0:05:47 > 0:05:52property up to £300,000, and reducing the amount they pay on
0:05:52 > 0:05:58homes up to £500,000. But the OBR immediately poured a little bit of
0:05:58 > 0:06:04cold water on it, saying it would only help 3500 people, and that it
0:06:04 > 0:06:09would push up house prices and was one of these things that was
0:06:09 > 0:06:16potentially open to misuse by people pretending to be first-time buyers,
0:06:16 > 0:06:20suggesting that the only thing that would stop them is the fact they
0:06:20 > 0:06:24would have to lie to their solicitors.And there is the
0:06:24 > 0:06:28overwhelming task of saving up for a deposit in the first place. The
0:06:28 > 0:06:34cartoon on the front page of the Telegraph sums it up. House prices
0:06:34 > 0:06:39go up because demand goes up. Estate agents saying, no more than two
0:06:39 > 0:06:45young people at any time.If you are stoking up demand, you are feeding
0:06:45 > 0:06:51the problem rather than solving it. The solution lies in more supply.
0:06:51 > 0:06:56The trouble with the stamp duty cut is that it pushes up prices, and it
0:06:56 > 0:07:02isn't dealing with the supply issue. It is just helping a fuel lucky
0:07:02 > 0:07:08people who will benefit, but doesn't address the problem. We have seen
0:07:08 > 0:07:12headlines about £44 billion for housing. That is not government
0:07:12 > 0:07:20cash. It is slightly obscure guarantees. It is a big number and
0:07:20 > 0:07:25it's not surprising the Treasury want to push that out there. But we
0:07:25 > 0:07:30don't know how many homes will actually be built.The Times says
0:07:30 > 0:07:36that Hammond eases off austerity. Really?They are making a lot of the
0:07:36 > 0:07:43idea that he has this £25 billion giveaway. But there are smoke and
0:07:43 > 0:07:48mirrors here, particularly with housing, the possibility that savvy
0:07:48 > 0:07:56Javed was pushing, this £50 billion for the government to invest in a
0:07:56 > 0:08:02house building scheme. Actually what we got was a £50 billion
0:08:02 > 0:08:05announcement that wasn't actually government money. It falls a long
0:08:05 > 0:08:14way short of what had been asked for per year. It is kind of smoke and
0:08:14 > 0:08:22mirrors.It has been described as Hammond's hard hat budget. There is
0:08:22 > 0:08:28an image of a concrete mixer there. It was a tough budget for him as
0:08:28 > 0:08:32well as for everyone else that it affects. He didn't have a lot to
0:08:32 > 0:08:38play with.He didn't. Very high personal stake for him, because
0:08:38 > 0:08:45after his last budget in March, he put up national insurance on the
0:08:45 > 0:08:50self employed, and Downing Street basically told him to undo it, which
0:08:50 > 0:08:56was a humiliating reversal. He had to get this one right. That's why he
0:08:56 > 0:09:01was so cautious. We knew stamp duty was coming, so there was nothing
0:09:01 > 0:09:06surprising in it. Apparently, he had been running it passed a lot of Tory
0:09:06 > 0:09:11MPs to make sure there was nothing they could complain about. He played
0:09:11 > 0:09:19it very safe.Some papers saying that this budget tells us about the
0:09:19 > 0:09:27Brexit plans. UK faces worst decade of economic growth in 60 years. The
0:09:27 > 0:09:33deficit will not be wiped out until at least 2031, and we have to get to
0:09:33 > 0:09:38the other side of Brexit.The interesting thing is that it doesn't
0:09:38 > 0:09:46factor in Brexit really. The OBR was pointing towards her Florence
0:09:46 > 0:09:52speech, which indicated a divorce bill of about £20 billion. Other
0:09:52 > 0:09:57indications show that it could be more than twice that. That hasn't
0:09:57 > 0:10:03been factored into these figures, neither has what we get from these
0:10:03 > 0:10:09negotiations. Transition has not been pinned down, and that could
0:10:09 > 0:10:13really impact businesses if we don't get that pin down before the end of
0:10:13 > 0:10:19the next quarter.The Daily Express describes it as £3 billion to speed
0:10:19 > 0:10:27up the EU exit. Showing that the government, it says, is willing to
0:10:27 > 0:10:32have no deal.I think it will add up to more than that. There was this
0:10:32 > 0:10:35debate between Hammond and the rest of the Cabinet as to whether he
0:10:35 > 0:10:47should put more money aside to deal with Brexit. They are spinning it as
0:10:47 > 0:10:55good for Brexit, because it shows we have this money to spend. £3 billion
0:10:55 > 0:11:02is not going to cut it and it smacks of a massive compromise.It shows
0:11:02 > 0:11:07that Downing Street have won out. A month ago he was saying that it was
0:11:07 > 0:11:13irresponsible to open up the cough and spend money on Brexit.Let's
0:11:13 > 0:11:17have a look at Buzzfeed. They always have a slightly different take. They
0:11:17 > 0:11:31are very close to the ground. They are taking the line that it is going
0:11:31 > 0:11:35to cut down on tax dodging by Internet companies. That is
0:11:35 > 0:11:41something that a lot of people get angry about.And fair enough, it is
0:11:41 > 0:11:46profit shifting. They don't pay corporation tax because they
0:11:46 > 0:11:50artificially shift their profits out of the UK.That didn't grab many
0:11:50 > 0:11:55headlines.That's because they've been hammering away at this issue
0:11:55 > 0:12:04for a while. Hammond is trying to tighten up existing measures
0:12:04 > 0:12:10further. This is also about VAT, which is another tech element of it.
0:12:10 > 0:12:15These platforms where people are not paying VAT they are trying to bring
0:12:15 > 0:12:22that into line. It is essentially digital companies which are avoiding
0:12:22 > 0:12:27tax.Caroline, with all of your connections at Number 10, you can
0:12:27 > 0:12:32describe what's going on in the Daily Mail.It's an interesting one.
0:12:32 > 0:12:38The idea that he is no longer this Eeyore. That was his nickname
0:12:38 > 0:12:43because he was always so pessimistic about everything. Despite everything
0:12:43 > 0:12:49we have heard about the growth forecasts, the Daily Mail has
0:12:49 > 0:12:54decided to go on a more optimistic picture of the budget, talking about
0:12:54 > 0:12:58the help for first-time buyers, which says more about the
0:12:58 > 0:13:02positioning of the Daily Mail than anything else. A lot of papers have
0:13:02 > 0:13:11been critical of the Chancellor, who was a remain voting minister.
0:13:11 > 0:13:16Hammond has got a kicking from that particular camp, so the fact they
0:13:16 > 0:13:20have come out in favour of him shows he is in the Prime Minister's good
0:13:20 > 0:13:27books at the moment.Caroline, Ben, thank you for taking us through the
0:13:27 > 0:13:29front pages.
0:13:29 > 0:13:32Don't forget you can see the front pages of the papers online
0:13:32 > 0:13:33on the BBC News website.
0:13:33 > 0:13:36It's all there for you - seven days a week at bbc.co.uk/papers.
0:13:36 > 0:13:39If you miss the programme any evening, you can watch it
0:13:39 > 0:13:40later on BBC iPlayer.
0:13:40 > 0:13:42Thank you to my guests, Caroline Wheeler and Ben Chu.