0:00:00 > 0:00:02on a Kabul hotel - they're thought to have been
0:00:02 > 0:00:12deliberately targeted.
0:00:16 > 0:00:19Hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be
0:00:19 > 0:00:20bringing us tomorrow.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23With me are Ben Chu, the economics editor
0:00:23 > 0:00:26at The Independent, and Ruth Lea, who's an Economics Adviser
0:00:26 > 0:00:32for the Arbuthnot Banking Group.
0:00:32 > 0:00:37Many of tomorrow's front pages are already in.
0:00:37 > 0:00:39The FT leads with news that the German government has taken
0:00:39 > 0:00:42a step towards breaking a four-month deadlock, as Angela Merkel's Social
0:00:42 > 0:00:47Democratic party voted in favour of formal coalition talks.
0:00:47 > 0:00:51The Metro reports on the death of eight year-old Mylee Billingham
0:00:51 > 0:00:53who was stabbed in Walsall.
0:00:53 > 0:00:57The front page of The Express features the BBC's interview with
0:00:57 > 0:00:59French President Emmanuel Macron - and his comments that French people
0:00:59 > 0:01:07would also vote to leave the EU if they had the chance.
0:01:07 > 0:01:12The I says wildlife conservations have issued a warning that the UK
0:01:12 > 0:01:16is aiding sales of ivory, because there is no outright ban
0:01:16 > 0:01:19on sales on the illegal goods.
0:01:19 > 0:01:22And The Telegraph leads with a story about the British Army -
0:01:22 > 0:01:25the paper says that a lack of resources means our troops
0:01:25 > 0:01:27are struggling to keep up with military advances in other
0:01:27 > 0:01:30countries like Russia. So it's a mixed bag of stories
0:01:30 > 0:01:32from those papers there - with lots to discuss and more front
0:01:32 > 0:01:38pages still to come in.
0:01:38 > 0:01:45We will bring you those as get them. Let us start shall we with the FT,
0:01:45 > 0:01:49as our first story, and Angela Merkel, the German situation which
0:01:49 > 0:01:55has been a complete sort of flux for four months but finally the SPD do
0:01:55 > 0:01:59seem to have been won round to entering formal coalition talk, to
0:01:59 > 0:02:03you think this has saved Angela Merkel?Well, it is a significant
0:02:03 > 0:02:06moment obviously, because as you say, after the back in September
0:02:06 > 0:02:12when they had the election, it was expected she would sweep to a strong
0:02:12 > 0:02:15position, and it should be a simple process, it has been anything but.
0:02:15 > 0:02:20She tried to make a coalition of the Greens and Liberals, that failed.
0:02:20 > 0:02:26Now she has been forced to other old partners in the SPD. They have.
0:02:26 > 0:02:30Voted just about to allow these talks to begin,Pretty close.
0:02:30 > 0:02:33Tighter than people thought it was going to be. It looks like they are
0:02:33 > 0:02:37going to go ahead. The betting is they will probably do a deal. What
0:02:37 > 0:02:42would be the price of that deal? What programme will this new fourth
0:02:42 > 0:02:46Government led by Angela Merkel have? There is lots of speculation,
0:02:46 > 0:02:49maybe it will be more European integration, more health spending,
0:02:49 > 0:02:54it looks like it will probably be quite influenced by what the SPD
0:02:54 > 0:02:59wanted, because Merkel has nowhere to go now, this is her last chance.
0:02:59 > 0:03:03She has listen left a slightly weaker figure because of this. She
0:03:03 > 0:03:06has been awful powerful in the EU for a long time, but this has been a
0:03:06 > 0:03:11bit of a knock back for her.It has been appalling for her. In fact her
0:03:11 > 0:03:17party, the CDU and the SPD did very badly or relatively badly in the
0:03:17 > 0:03:22September elections and the SPD blamed having been in the Grand
0:03:22 > 0:03:28Coalition with the CDU for their poor showing. Initially the SPD
0:03:28 > 0:03:32leader said I don't want to do with any more coalitions so he has almost
0:03:32 > 0:03:35been dragged kicking and screaming into this position. So as Ben said,
0:03:35 > 0:03:39the next thing is to have the detailed coalition arrangements
0:03:39 > 0:03:44decided, then it has to go the membership, that will be March,
0:03:44 > 0:03:48which is six months after the election, what a mess, and the
0:03:48 > 0:03:53membership may throw it out. Merkel looks an incredibly weakened leader,
0:03:53 > 0:03:56interestingly enough, because of her weakness Macron has managed to come
0:03:56 > 0:04:00in and look as though he is the golden boy and almost the leader of
0:04:00 > 0:04:04the European Union. But it has certainly helped France that Jeremy
0:04:04 > 0:04:09are so weak.When we had a coalition here in 2010 we were frustrated it
0:04:09 > 0:04:13took ten days to sort it out. This is incredible, such a powerful
0:04:13 > 0:04:20country can be without a government. The Germans are a lot more used to
0:04:20 > 0:04:23cogses, the nature of their constitution and political system.
0:04:23 > 0:04:29This is abnormally long, even by German standards. And it does, it
0:04:29 > 0:04:33is, it is not uncharted territory but it is very fragile territory.
0:04:33 > 0:04:37What is interesting what does this mean for Germany's role in Brexit
0:04:37 > 0:04:42negotiations as far as the UK is concerned.You mentioned is Macron
0:04:42 > 0:04:48there, let us look at the front-page of the Daily Express, man Ron in an
0:04:48 > 0:04:52interview, a BBC interview today and after that visit to Sandhurst to see
0:04:52 > 0:04:59Theresa May which was quite an event. This headline saying the
0:04:59 > 0:05:05French would vote to leave the EU, I think that would be Frexit. Macron
0:05:05 > 0:05:09said he thinks the French people would feel the same way. Why was
0:05:09 > 0:05:16that?Frantic Frexit. There are is a lot of Euro-scepticism in France and
0:05:16 > 0:05:20Le Pen managed to pick up on this h but he was interesting what he said
0:05:20 > 0:05:23to Andrew Marr, yes, probably in a similar context but our context
0:05:23 > 0:05:27would be different and he would fight hard for the prech people to
0:05:27 > 0:05:31stay within the European Union, but the mere fact he sort of suggested
0:05:31 > 0:05:37you know perhaps the EU isn't all singing dancing for the French
0:05:37 > 0:05:44people is exciting. Thinking back to the Lisbon Treaty in 2005. If memory
0:05:44 > 0:05:48serves me right the French voted against it. The Dutch, the Irish but
0:05:48 > 0:05:52they were asked to vote again. This idea is that Europe is everything to
0:05:52 > 0:05:57France is just not true, they are still a very nationalistic country
0:05:57 > 0:06:01that interesting because of this meeting with May, still wants to do
0:06:01 > 0:06:06bilateral deals which I find interesting.Macron's solution to
0:06:06 > 0:06:10that is closer integration, within the EU, so, that is how he thinks
0:06:10 > 0:06:14they should improve things with the European Union.But he is also
0:06:14 > 0:06:18making the point about the nature of referendums, he went on to say if
0:06:18 > 0:06:21you give people a yes or no question you will get a distorted answer
0:06:21 > 0:06:25because you don't know exactly what people are voting about. He was
0:06:25 > 0:06:28saying, he seemed to be saying the way I read it, I would never have
0:06:28 > 0:06:32put myself in the position that David Cameron put himself in by
0:06:32 > 0:06:36offering this all-or-nothing volt to the British people. He is saying,
0:06:36 > 0:06:39you have to give people about to find solution to the problems they
0:06:39 > 0:06:43may see in the relationship between your country and the European Union,
0:06:43 > 0:06:47so it was a bit subtle. Ruth is right, the idea French, all French
0:06:47 > 0:06:51love the EU and they are massively pro European is not true, at the
0:06:51 > 0:06:56same time he was making a slightly subtle point about the nature of
0:06:56 > 0:06:59referendums and how they can be, not answer the questions people want
0:06:59 > 0:07:07them to.You mentioned his clear ambition you know to be a leader in
0:07:07 > 0:07:10the EU, particularly with Angela Merkel maybe weakened, what did you
0:07:10 > 0:07:14make of his visit with Theresa May, how he handled that. How he has
0:07:14 > 0:07:21handled things on the world stage. It was fine, some of my fellow
0:07:21 > 0:07:24Brexiteers had a nervous breakdown he came at all. He is talking about
0:07:24 > 0:07:27Britain can get a bespoke trade deal with the EU. I think this is
0:07:27 > 0:07:32positive. Then he went on the talk about financial services but that is
0:07:32 > 0:07:36negotiation, that is one noise, I thought he was being positive. I was
0:07:36 > 0:07:39interested in the way he wanted to have this bilateral security
0:07:39 > 0:07:42agreement with the United Kingdom, in other words we still want to be
0:07:42 > 0:07:48friends, we still want to deal with you even though you are having the
0:07:48 > 0:07:52temerity to leave the currency union European Union.He did talk about
0:07:52 > 0:07:57Britain can't cherry pick.He was straight about it. That is why
0:07:57 > 0:08:02people appreciate it. If you leave the EU you can't expect to have the
0:08:02 > 0:08:05same benefits a being in otherwise there would be no point being in it,
0:08:05 > 0:08:10a simple line. He says when it comes to the single market the same apply,
0:08:10 > 0:08:16you can't have it unless you are in it. A lot of people are falling over
0:08:16 > 0:08:18themselves in admiration about a French politician who comes over
0:08:18 > 0:08:23here and speaks English. It is the clarity of the message, that people
0:08:23 > 0:08:27appreciate that sort of straighted for wardness as well.Talking of --
0:08:27 > 0:08:32straightforwardness. Let us move on to the story about Ukip. And their
0:08:32 > 0:08:39leader Henry Bolton, who is today had a vote of no confidence and the
0:08:39 > 0:08:45party membership will have to vote on what happens to him. I have lost
0:08:45 > 0:08:50track how many leaders.Or how many girlfriends he has has.It is
0:08:50 > 0:08:56because of her tweets he is in some trouble. His argument is this is
0:08:56 > 0:08:59what my girlfriend, what she says, it shouldn't have anything to do
0:08:59 > 0:09:04with his leadership of Ukip. What do you think?I think he looks
0:09:04 > 0:09:08incredibly weak and the National Executive committee, they met today
0:09:08 > 0:09:12and voted in no confidence. I think he is toast. But come to that, I
0:09:12 > 0:09:16think Ukip is pretty much toast, I think he is the fourth or the fifth
0:09:16 > 0:09:21leader, there was Diane James and Paul Nuttall, and someone called
0:09:21 > 0:09:26Nigel Farage if my memory serves my correctly! The big question has to
0:09:26 > 0:09:32be for Ukip do they have a future and I suspect they don't. Their
0:09:32 > 0:09:36great raison d'etre was to leave the EU. What is interesting, we have a
0:09:36 > 0:09:42picture here in the Express, of Nigel Farage, and he is presumably
0:09:42 > 0:09:46or apparently in conversation with someone called Aaron banks with the
0:09:46 > 0:09:51idea of having a new organisation, which may be out of what, there is
0:09:51 > 0:09:56something at the moment called Leave Means Leave I think it might be
0:09:56 > 0:09:58something out of that to keep Theresa May's nose to the
0:09:58 > 0:10:03grindstone.But that is the role. I remember on the morning of the
0:10:03 > 0:10:07referendum interviewing Nigel Farage and saying that, what is the point?
0:10:07 > 0:10:10You have succeeded, you have got what you wanted but he said we are
0:10:10 > 0:10:16going to hold their feet to the fire, we will make sure they deliver
0:10:16 > 0:10:20Brexit, that is what some Brexiteers feel, is there a role for Ukip?You
0:10:20 > 0:10:26can make that case, I mean the trouble is it has become such a
0:10:26 > 0:10:29pantomime, the ins and outs of the character in it and what their views
0:10:29 > 0:10:33are and this stuff, it is not anything to do with the project
0:10:33 > 0:10:38which the party was founded to further, and to what extent does
0:10:38 > 0:10:41this now distract from their point of view, from the actual objective
0:10:41 > 0:10:49itself? And I presume this is why Aaron Banks and Nigel Farage are
0:10:49 > 0:10:53setting up a new organisation, because the existing one is so
0:10:53 > 0:10:57tainted, even by the standard of political parties it is just become
0:10:57 > 0:11:02a hindrance rather than a help.Do you think the party or any party
0:11:02 > 0:11:06with this view can succeed, without Nigel Farage? It seems to be without
0:11:06 > 0:11:10him at the Mel. They can't cut through?I think that is right. I
0:11:10 > 0:11:13think that is why he wants to have this this new movement away from
0:11:13 > 0:11:18Ukip. It is worth remembering that back in 2014, Ukip won the European
0:11:18 > 0:11:22Union elections in this country, which was extraordinary, so
0:11:22 > 0:11:26obviously that was, but it has gone, I think Ukip's time is over.
0:11:26 > 0:11:32OK. Let us go now to the Financial Times again and this time the US
0:11:32 > 0:11:42shut down. I thought this happened all the time. It has only happened
0:11:42 > 0:11:46four times in 25 year, the difference one party the Republicans
0:11:46 > 0:11:51are in control of both houses, so that is unusual. What is going on?
0:11:51 > 0:11:55They have failed to agree to roll over the agreement to keep funning
0:11:55 > 0:11:59the federal Government. Without that, it means that apart from the
0:11:59 > 0:12:02very basic law enforcement and the military, everything shuts down,
0:12:02 > 0:12:07they can't pay the wanes of people who work in it, and they don't have
0:12:07 > 0:12:13to work until that I do, they are going to meet again on Monday so
0:12:13 > 0:12:16presumably the last shut down was 16 day, they will aim do better than
0:12:16 > 0:12:22that. It is interesting you say it has only happened four times in 25
0:12:22 > 0:12:26years, that is a lot. Huge responsibilities and very important
0:12:26 > 0:12:31jobs to do, all across the public sector in the US, it is a sign of
0:12:31 > 0:12:36dysfunction, this really is S they couldn't agree, senior politicians
0:12:36 > 0:12:40on each side, and the brokering of the presidency couldn't agree to
0:12:40 > 0:12:44keep federal Government running. It is not a great symbol of American
0:12:44 > 0:12:49democracy.It is a massive fail your of American Government.The last
0:12:49 > 0:12:52time it happened in 2013 and the Government closed down for a month.
0:12:52 > 0:12:59This is about the budget for the fiscal year, 2017/18 which started
0:12:59 > 0:13:03in October, but as Ben was saying they were talking about rolling over
0:13:03 > 0:13:07and they have had two extension, they can't agree on the third, and
0:13:07 > 0:13:13they can't agree on the budget, it is is a bit of a mess, what Trump
0:13:13 > 0:13:19needs is a 60 vote support in the Senate, so he has to have 60-40 vote
0:13:19 > 0:13:24and the problem is he only had 51 Senators so he has to say something
0:13:24 > 0:13:30nice to the Democrats.Is that going to come easily, do you think?It is
0:13:30 > 0:13:33interesting because he styled himself as this great deal broker,
0:13:33 > 0:13:37the guy who wasn't sort of mired in the infighting of politics, he was
0:13:37 > 0:13:43above that. But he has not been able to... The Democrats say we will do a
0:13:43 > 0:13:46deal but we need you to go the Republicans and say, they say he is
0:13:46 > 0:13:50too weak to do that, to stand up to the Republican, who knows what the
0:13:50 > 0:13:57truth is, that what they are saying. He will have to come of politics, he
0:13:57 > 0:14:00was above that. But he has not been able to... The Democrats say we will
0:14:00 > 0:14:03do a deal but we need you to go the Republicans and say, they say he is
0:14:03 > 0:14:06too weak to do that, to stand up to the Republican, who knows what the
0:14:06 > 0:14:09truth is, that what they are saying. He will have to come pro-Mize, but
0:14:09 > 0:14:12he is a "Deal maker" he will sort it.Let us finish with the Daily
0:14:12 > 0:14:15Telegraph. We have heard a lot about Big Ben. It is looking a bit sad at
0:14:15 > 0:14:17the moment, covered in scaffolding. This headline says Eurosceptics Big
0:14:17 > 0:14:20Ben will not bong Britain out of the EU because they did resurrect it for
0:14:20 > 0:14:23New Year eves, didn't they, but that is what they are clearly concerned
0:14:23 > 0:14:26about. Do people care about this?I am sure some people care deeply.I
0:14:26 > 0:14:33care.I bet they will do it. You know, what David Lidington, the
0:14:33 > 0:14:38cabinet minister said today. If you get enough people to sign a
0:14:38 > 0:14:42petition, regardless of how many, what proportion of the country care,
0:14:42 > 0:14:48if enough people make out they care, then that I will probably happen,We
0:14:48 > 0:14:54should have Big Ben bonging us out of the EU.Would you be standing
0:14:54 > 0:14:59there in Parliament Square?Unless they go up to Rochdale Town Hall
0:14:59 > 0:15:06where the bells are similar. Let us go there.Regional rebalancing.We
0:15:06 > 0:15:12should have some stamps as well.I have read about this.Royal Mail
0:15:12 > 0:15:16disgrace, how, if people want to make a case for stamps, is there a
0:15:16 > 0:15:23mechanism. There were stamps when we joined the EEC, they are tucked
0:15:23 > 0:15:31away.Have you got them?Of course. On the exit we...I treasure thresh
0:15:31 > 0:15:38your them, as I do all my stamps. You can collect a set.To make the
0:15:38 > 0:15:43story complete you need the exiting stamps as well. We must leave it
0:15:43 > 0:15:48there for this hour, that is it for The Papers for this hour. You can
0:15:48 > 0:15:52see the front-pages of The Papers online.
0:15:52 > 0:15:55It's all there for you, seven days a week at bbc.co.uk/papers,
0:15:55 > 0:15:58and if you miss the programme any evening, you can watch it
0:15:58 > 0:15:59later on BBC iPlayer.
0:15:59 > 0:16:09