:00:52. > :00:56.Later, change or face problems that beset their health service after
:00:56. > :01:06.the Second World War. And jazz the eurozone crisis but
:01:06. > :01:06.
:01:06. > :34:44.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 2017 seconds
:34:44. > :34:48.did repatriation of powers on the Welcome to the Politics Show in
:34:48. > :34:52.Wales. Coming up, the euro, pensions, business confidence and
:34:52. > :34:56.Christmas. But first the senior -- a senior
:34:56. > :35:01.figure in the NHS has said that if proposed changes to the NHS do not
:35:01. > :35:08.change, the problems that beset health care after the Second World
:35:08. > :35:12.War will return. Professor Sir Mansel Aylward, told us that the
:35:12. > :35:19.poor could be left in a dark hole, with their health deteriorating
:35:19. > :35:23.rapidly. For many years, reports have warned
:35:23. > :35:30.the Welsh NHS must change radically, or face being overwhelmed. Until
:35:30. > :35:35.now, change has been at best limited. The most recent document
:35:35. > :35:42.warning the NHS of the need for reform came in May, from the bed in
:35:42. > :35:52.commission, made up of health professionals and expires. --
:35:52. > :35:55.
:35:55. > :36:03.experts. It was chaired by Sir Mansell Aylward. It was promised
:36:03. > :36:13.that changes would be made, and more services offered at home. The
:36:13. > :36:16.
:36:16. > :36:21.head of the public advisory body... What should the NHS in Wales look
:36:21. > :36:26.like in 10 years' time, if the reforms that you want to see are
:36:27. > :36:30.actually acted on. It is defined as world-class health care, and if we
:36:30. > :36:35.can say that the system is as good as or better than elsewhere, that
:36:35. > :36:39.would be good. We can use it as a benchmark. It will be a service
:36:39. > :36:44.that will be safer for people to going to hospital. The service were
:36:44. > :36:48.people who go into hospital will not have to stay there. A service
:36:48. > :36:52.where much of the work that is done and secondary care hospitals now it
:36:52. > :36:56.is moved into the community. People will be able to access care in
:36:56. > :37:00.their own home. Their own GP will be able to provide them with a
:37:00. > :37:07.better range of options. There will be local health centres which will
:37:07. > :37:12.focus upon not just looking at curing people, but looking at
:37:12. > :37:15.improving the health and other ways, by exploiting the link between
:37:16. > :37:20.public health, the NHS and local government. It will be a safer
:37:20. > :37:28.system, a quality improved system. We have heard many warnings over
:37:28. > :37:32.the years, saying the NHS has to change, things are unsustainable.
:37:32. > :37:39.Disaster if things don't happen. You do not get the impression that
:37:39. > :37:43.changes have happen. -- have happened. I feel depressed and
:37:43. > :37:49.disappointed that there has been little progress. The demographic
:37:49. > :37:53.changes, people are getting older, and therefore we have a lot of -- a
:37:53. > :37:57.larger population of people who have larger problems than the
:37:58. > :38:01.younger population. Medical advances, technical advances, they
:38:01. > :38:06.all contribute to how will be managed to pay for the NHS and
:38:06. > :38:12.deliver the services we want? There has been progress. Certainly the
:38:12. > :38:16.NHS reforms where we have got single unified health boards, and
:38:16. > :38:25.we haven't -- abandoned the market approach, they have brought a much
:38:25. > :38:29.more focused emphasis to the NHS on quality and care, and provision.
:38:29. > :38:34.But we have not really cracked it. Together for Health, which the
:38:34. > :38:40.Minister launched a couple of weeks ago, that is another vision. It is
:38:40. > :38:44.very similar to addressing the issues that have been addressed all
:38:44. > :38:49.along, but to me, it has a greater commitment to it, and says things
:38:49. > :38:55.that have not been said before. It talks about not just dealing with
:38:56. > :39:00.care, but avoiding illness, which is very important. In short, my
:39:00. > :39:05.answer is yes, we need to do a lot more. But we're not going to get
:39:05. > :39:09.many more chances. In the past we had plenty of money, and perhaps we
:39:09. > :39:16.spent it wrongly. Now we have got no money -- more money, and that
:39:16. > :39:21.will force us to think about changing to better quality, safer
:39:21. > :39:29.hospitals. We have emotional attachments, particularly to our
:39:29. > :39:34.local hospitals. Do you need to tell us that if everything is done
:39:34. > :39:37.at your local hospital, you are frankly more likely to die, than if
:39:37. > :39:43.you went that much further a weightier more specialised
:39:43. > :39:48.facilities? No, we do not want to scare you about that, and what we
:39:48. > :39:57.should remember is nowadays there are people who have unusual
:39:57. > :40:01.diseases Andreea conditions, -- rare conditions, and you cannot
:40:01. > :40:05.always deliver that at the local level. It would be foolhardy to say
:40:05. > :40:13.that we should all be treated in the same way at the District
:40:14. > :40:20.Hospital, which the minister says they will continue. You have to
:40:20. > :40:24.have specialised centres. We have got to look at the conditions
:40:24. > :40:28.people they have, and match them to treatment they have. We do need
:40:28. > :40:33.general hospitals, and we need health centres, but we also need
:40:33. > :40:37.specialised centres. The other area where we can avoid risk is the
:40:37. > :40:42.campaign was based on the fact that there are deaths in hospital that
:40:42. > :40:45.are run avoid -- are avoidable. I was involved in the beginning with
:40:45. > :40:50.this, and I tried to persuade politicians that this was not a
:40:50. > :40:54.message that would frighten people. It was saying, this is what is
:40:54. > :40:59.happening, this is a measure of the quality you get in hospital. Not
:40:59. > :41:03.just in Wales, but throughout the world. That was accepted, but many
:41:03. > :41:10.people said you cannot tell people they are going to die in hospital.
:41:10. > :41:20.But people do die in hospital, and we expect that. We do not expect
:41:20. > :41:21.
:41:21. > :41:31.people to die is this could have been avoidable. We are trying to
:41:31. > :41:31.
:41:31. > :41:35.avoid mistakes. I want you, as the public, to say, I am not putting up
:41:35. > :41:40.with this, I want a better quality of life and health care, and I do
:41:40. > :41:47.not want to be a risk when I going to hospital. That is what we want
:41:47. > :41:56.NHS Wales to be like. If the reforms are not made, if the
:41:56. > :42:06.changes do not happen, how a ragged could NHS services get? When we
:42:06. > :42:09.
:42:09. > :42:13.first spoke about the NHS in 1960. People were dying earlier, people
:42:14. > :42:21.were dying of diseases that could not be cured, people were dying of
:42:21. > :42:25.minor things. That Panorama that was around post war will be again,
:42:25. > :42:29.we will have post-Cold lotteries, and most importantly the richer
:42:29. > :42:34.would get better, there is no two ways about that, and the poorer
:42:35. > :42:39.would get poorer, and their health would deteriorate markedly. Because
:42:39. > :42:49.what the NHS does, and we must be mindful of the fact that the NHS is
:42:49. > :42:49.
:42:49. > :42:59.about people who are poor, indeed, in distress, and need a better NHS
:42:59. > :43:01.
:43:01. > :43:05.service. It is like the man who is robbed of his memory because of
:43:05. > :43:09.Alzheimer's disease, and the elderly lady who needs a hip
:43:09. > :43:15.operation, this is what the NHS is all about, and we cannot forsake
:43:15. > :43:21.them. So we must do well, but we must avoid those people being left
:43:21. > :43:26.in the dark hole. Professor Sir Mansel Aylward, thank you very much.
:43:26. > :43:30.Thank you. David Cameron insists he will
:43:30. > :43:35.defend Britain's interests of European treaties are rewritten in
:43:35. > :43:40.the wake of the eurozone debt crisis. He is preparing to attend a
:43:40. > :43:50.crisis summit with other European leaders this week. I spoke to two
:43:50. > :43:52.
:43:52. > :43:58.senior -- former MEPs. Wayne David and Jonathan Evans.
:43:58. > :44:01.The centralising member state budgets, that will depend on what
:44:01. > :44:06.control you are talking about. It is important for Britain to be
:44:06. > :44:14.there, and the national interests to be protected. But if David
:44:14. > :44:18.Cameron follows what the Euro- sceptics are saying, then some
:44:18. > :44:23.countries are likely to say we will do her own thing, and we're on the
:44:23. > :44:27.sidelines. The 10 countries who are not in the euro are on the
:44:27. > :44:31.sidelines to some extent in the debate, which is a good thing.
:44:31. > :44:39.There are very many people in Parliament who are due to be in the
:44:39. > :44:43.euro, who would like to forget some of the remarks made at the time, --
:44:43. > :44:47.at the time. But you cannot sideline the 10 who are not in the
:44:47. > :44:51.euro from being actively involved in economic conditions, but we
:44:51. > :45:00.would not want to have or budgets being looked over by the Germans
:45:00. > :45:04.and French, being approved by Angela Merkel, and Mr Sarkozy. For
:45:04. > :45:08.a short period of time, they may be prepared to sign up to this in
:45:08. > :45:11.order to get themselves through the immediate crisis, but I think there
:45:11. > :45:15.is a huge political question about whether the countries will be
:45:15. > :45:21.comfortable for a long time, with Berlin deciding their economic
:45:21. > :45:24.policy. If the this treaty change in the future, David Cameron has on
:45:24. > :45:31.records as saying he wants to protect Britain's interests. What
:45:31. > :45:34.do you think he has in mind? think he has in mind getting back
:45:34. > :45:37.the opt-outs in relation to social policy that John Major had
:45:37. > :45:42.negotiated and agreed to the country, which were later given
:45:42. > :45:46.away by Tony Blair. He will want to have some security in relation to
:45:46. > :45:55.the City of London, and he has raised that already. These are big
:45:55. > :46:00.issues for us. If the treaty change his Berlin deciding to approve the
:46:00. > :46:04.EU budgets for the other 17 countries in the eurozone area, I
:46:04. > :46:09.would a car -- regard that as a major change, not a trivial change.
:46:09. > :46:12.If that is so, it is perfectly likely that the Prime Minister will
:46:12. > :46:17.be saying, if that is going to take place we have got to have British
:46:17. > :46:22.interests protect it. What should be the priority for David Cameron?
:46:22. > :46:27.Should it be protecting the single currency, single market, or
:46:27. > :46:30.repatriating powers back to this country? The first priority has to
:46:31. > :46:35.make sure of the stability inside the euro-zone. Not because we are
:46:35. > :46:39.concerned about the eurozone as such, but it has a huge impact on
:46:39. > :46:47.the United Kingdom. 3 million jobs are dependent on the stability in
:46:47. > :46:51.the eurozone. It is very important that Cameron goes there and does
:46:51. > :46:55.everything he can to ensure that France and Germany especially give
:46:55. > :46:59.a coherent lead to make sure the Spiller -- stability is at Chief.
:46:59. > :47:04.How much of this is about the politics of it? Of David Cameron is
:47:04. > :47:07.going to be concentrating on the eurozone crisis and not so much on
:47:07. > :47:11.repatriating powers, there will be some backbenchers in your party up
:47:11. > :47:15.in arms. There are many backbenchers who would not want to
:47:15. > :47:19.be in the European Union, but I am not one of them. I share the view
:47:19. > :47:23.it is positive for us to be in the single market. But that does not
:47:23. > :47:26.mean that on Major -- a major priority on anything is to link the
:47:26. > :47:36.two what Berlin and Paris suggest. They have to look after the British
:47:36. > :47:39.
:47:39. > :47:43.interests. The answer for the instability as for Angela Merkel to
:47:43. > :47:50.grasp the nettle. If she talks endlessly about more Europe, more
:47:50. > :47:54.integration, she has to put the credibility of Germany and its
:47:54. > :47:59.economic credibility behind some of the other states which are at the
:47:59. > :48:03.margins, and I am afraid that so far, meeting after meeting, the
:48:03. > :48:09.Germans have not done that. Hopefully in the next 10 days, that
:48:09. > :48:13.will take place, because until it does the crisis will continue.
:48:13. > :48:16.wonder if the eurozone crisis has played into the hands of the pro
:48:16. > :48:22.Europeans, that they are now coming out to say that we need European
:48:22. > :48:25.countries to work better together, that needs to be more integration
:48:25. > :48:30.to secure the euro, and we are hearing less voices saying let's
:48:30. > :48:35.get powers back from Brussels. think it is the case that there has
:48:35. > :48:40.been a lot of flag-waving -- flag- waving among certain Euro-sceptics.
:48:40. > :48:44.Jonathan is clearly not one of them. That is harmful to Britain's
:48:44. > :48:49.national interest. This is a serious situation, and we always
:48:49. > :48:55.need to know what is best for Britain. For 200 years, the United
:48:55. > :49:01.Kingdom has taken the view that her role is to be in with the European
:49:01. > :49:06.partners, not necessarily been part of Europe all the time, and I think
:49:06. > :49:10.that is what is going to happen. David Cameron must say that this is
:49:10. > :49:14.in Britain's national interest. I believe Germany has to take a more
:49:14. > :49:18.positive role, I would like to see the development of eurobonds,
:49:18. > :49:22.greater role for the European Central Bank. That would be in
:49:22. > :49:26.their best interest, and the crucial thing for us is not how far
:49:26. > :49:31.can we get away from it, but how far can we be there making sure our
:49:31. > :49:35.national interests are protected? Can be turned to another subject in
:49:35. > :49:42.the news, which is public sector pensions. Lord Hutton Today said
:49:42. > :49:46.that this is a credible offer by the present government. He is
:49:46. > :49:54.letting your party down, after being a member of the former Labour
:49:54. > :49:58.government, isn't he? I do not think he is. Whether it is a good
:49:58. > :50:04.offer is another matter altogether. The trade unions are right to be
:50:04. > :50:08.making sure they get the best deal for their members. The trade unions
:50:08. > :50:13.naturally want the best possible deal for them. Some people would
:50:13. > :50:19.argue that credible and good are quite similar. No, there is a big
:50:19. > :50:23.difference. There is no doubt that the figures stack up, but is that
:50:23. > :50:28.the point? It is about whether everything is going to fall, or if
:50:28. > :50:31.we have a responsible position adopted by the trade unions. I
:50:31. > :50:35.believe that there will be a coming together of the government changes
:50:35. > :50:45.its position, which I believe it will do. I believe the situation is
:50:45. > :50:49.so serious that we have to get away from tribalism and politics. I
:50:49. > :50:52.think... I am very concerned about what impact the changes have on the
:50:52. > :50:57.public sector, but at the same time the unions have claimed until now
:50:57. > :51:01.that John Hutton said the current system is completely sustainable. I
:51:01. > :51:04.have had letters from my constituents who have said that.
:51:04. > :51:08.But John Hutton has made it clear that what the Government has put
:51:08. > :51:16.forward as a credible answer, and if we do not go forward with the
:51:16. > :51:20.change, ultimately we make -- might end up hitting the buffers. I asked
:51:20. > :51:25.a colleague last week, Alan Cairns, whether it was feared if public
:51:25. > :51:29.sector workers would be retiring on pensions of 3,000 or �4,000 a year,
:51:29. > :51:36.after the reforms kicked in. Is that a fair settlement who have
:51:36. > :51:40.given their working lives to the public sector? That statistic, in
:51:40. > :51:43.terms of �3,000, is nonsense. The reality is that in order to produce
:51:43. > :51:48.that figure, all of the people who have only worked for a short period
:51:48. > :51:51.of time in the public sector are added into the numbers. The reality
:51:52. > :51:55.is that if you have spent a lifetime working in the public
:51:55. > :52:01.sector, you will end up with a significantly better pension than
:52:01. > :52:05.someone who has worked a lifetime in the private sector. The current
:52:05. > :52:09.level of those pensions, being based on final salaries. Final
:52:09. > :52:14.salaries for some people, who are paid very big wages, are
:52:14. > :52:21.unsustainable. John Hutton has said that, and he also said putting
:52:21. > :52:26.Labour tribalism to one side, this is a credible offer. Do you think
:52:26. > :52:32.union leader should go the extra mile so we can have a settlements
:52:32. > :52:37.in? I think everyone has to go the extra mile, because it is important.
:52:37. > :52:40.It is as important a settlement is reached. We have to recognise that
:52:40. > :52:45.we are talking about people not to our rich and affluent, like some of
:52:46. > :52:49.the top executives in businesses, but lowly paid people. It has been
:52:49. > :52:55.one of the accepted things and the public sector that although the
:52:55. > :52:58.wages might not be good, pensions were good. Having an attack on
:52:58. > :53:03.pensions and the way it has been handled is very unfair and regress
:53:03. > :53:07.of the stock the offer is protecting lower-paid people.
:53:07. > :53:13.the people at the top who are suffering a major loss. But the
:53:13. > :53:17.figures do not bear that out. you very much for joining us for.
:53:17. > :53:27.We will continue with the economy, more can -- specifically the Welsh
:53:27. > :53:31.
:53:31. > :53:37.economy. I enjoyed by a Istin Davies, the reality is that we are
:53:37. > :53:46.seeing less people spending money. Yes, people are shopping more
:53:46. > :53:50.frequently, but less money is being spent. We need to make opportunity
:53:50. > :53:56.for local businesses over the shopping p it. Are there are less
:53:56. > :54:00.people walking through the doors, or the availability for loans -- of
:54:00. > :54:10.loans from banks, what are the specifics regarding the businesses
:54:10. > :54:17.
:54:17. > :54:21.are? They are all adding together to create a pest -- Perfect Storm.
:54:21. > :54:25.As you go shopping, the Christmas spirit is an important part of what
:54:25. > :54:29.we experience at this time of year. Local traders can provide you with
:54:29. > :54:35.the special something that adds value to the economy, but to the
:54:35. > :54:39.experience at Christmas. If you are run manufacturing more detail, or
:54:39. > :54:45.providing a service, this time of year is incredibly important. Small
:54:45. > :54:49.businesses are notoriously difficult, and we're making the
:54:49. > :54:54.most of this period. A lot of shops are starting their Christmas sales.
:54:55. > :54:59.Is that a sign of how bad things are? I do not think so, I think it
:54:59. > :55:02.is a sign of how committed the traders are to commit to the
:55:02. > :55:07.customers and make sure there is added value over the Christmas
:55:07. > :55:13.period, which means something to the customers. It also adds to the
:55:13. > :55:16.sense of well-being. Economic confidence is fragile, but it is
:55:16. > :55:26.important that small businesses are allowed to contribute the attic
:55:26. > :55:29.
:55:29. > :55:31.just a moving. -- to that at the moment. Did you see anything in the
:55:31. > :55:35.Autumn Statement foreign figures from the Welsh government that will
:55:35. > :55:39.give businesses some hope? There are some nuggets of Christmas cheer
:55:39. > :55:43.coming from Westminster. There are some good signs coming from Cardiff
:55:44. > :55:51.Bay as well. We need to bring them together to develop a strong
:55:51. > :55:59.message. Cardiff Bay has to say this is how we're going to support
:55:59. > :56:03.the Welsh economy, to make sure we're going to drive the economy
:56:03. > :56:08.forward. I suppose the problem is that people have less money in
:56:09. > :56:14.their pockets, and it is very hard to entice them to spend what little
:56:14. > :56:17.money there have. Indeed. We need to seek creative marketing
:56:17. > :56:22.strategies. It is not the time to look for new markets, but it is the
:56:22. > :56:31.time to go for existing business and show that you are providing
:56:31. > :56:38.value. Thank you very much. Let us not forget that Christmas is
:56:38. > :56:42.on its way, amid the gloom. Earlier this week the presiding Officer
:56:42. > :56:52.Rosemary Butler invited two schools to the Senedd to decorate the
:56:52. > :56:59.
:56:59. > :57:08.I would like a real pony. I would like and a C D C C D. -- AC/DC
:57:08. > :57:12.albums. The children have been decorating the tree is this morning.
:57:12. > :57:19.They told me what you would like for Christmas. What would you like?
:57:20. > :57:24.I have a long list, but I will not share with that. I would like to be
:57:24. > :57:28.with my family and friends and enjoy Christmas. It is a wonderful
:57:28. > :57:32.time of the year. I am looking forward to relaxing after a busy
:57:33. > :57:38.session. What would you like to see the assembly achieve next year?
:57:38. > :57:45.you know, last March the people of Wales gave us a resounding Yes in
:57:45. > :57:51.the referendum. My hope for next year is to make sure that people --
:57:51. > :57:58.we start bringing Delors through that are made for people in Wales.
:57:58. > :58:02.-- the laws. The Government has been dragging their heels, there
:58:02. > :58:06.are still no new legislation has been brought forward. Who has been
:58:06. > :58:13.dragging their heels? I will be moving it forward and a speedy
:58:13. > :58:23.manner. Ponies, AC/DC albums and as in the
:58:23. > :58:25.