:00:00. > :00:27.Tonight - Reflections of a spin doctor - Alastair Campbell delivers
:00:28. > :00:36.his verdict on the political journey travelled by Peter Robinson...
:00:37. > :00:42.Someone like Peter Robinson who was, you are right, he could be a
:00:43. > :00:48.complete total paying to us when we were trying to do stuff in the early
:00:49. > :00:53.days and now he is there and to the political life of Northern Ireland
:00:54. > :00:55.alongside Martin McGuiness and that is an extraordinary story.
:00:56. > :00:57.With the UK's future in the EU under increasing scrutiny,
:00:58. > :01:00.are we lagging behind in weighing up the pros and cons of Brexit?
:01:01. > :01:02.Also tonight - The DUP's getting a new leader,
:01:03. > :01:05.but with a coronation expected rather than a competition, is that
:01:06. > :01:10.And bringing a splash of colour to Commentators' Corner, Newton Emerson
:01:11. > :01:19.and Cathy Gormley-Heenan are back together again...
:01:20. > :01:22.Not for the first time, politics here has been dominated
:01:23. > :01:28.by the all-important challenge of 'doing a deal'.
:01:29. > :01:31.And now the pressure is on to cement the latest,
:01:32. > :01:34.One man who lived through just such a process with the Good
:01:35. > :01:37.Friday Agreement is Labour's former spin doctor, Alastair Campbell.
:01:38. > :01:39.He's in Belfast tonight on a speaking engagement and just before
:01:40. > :01:43.we came on air I asked him - as someone who knows very well just how
:01:44. > :01:46.difficult it is to reach agreement on issues concerning the past here -
:01:47. > :01:49.how regrettable is it that legacy isn't part of the 'Fresh Start'
:01:50. > :02:03.You will always get at every stage of the process, when I was working
:02:04. > :02:07.with Tony Blair, you always have that, what ever you did there were
:02:08. > :02:11.always people who came out in the aftermath and said this will
:02:12. > :02:17.collapse, it does not work, it is not right. As you said earlier, this
:02:18. > :02:22.particular deal between the two parties and the two governments and
:02:23. > :02:25.one of those parties is the DUP, the Good Friday Agreement itself, whose
:02:26. > :02:30.was the first voice to come out and say this will not work, this is
:02:31. > :02:34.flawed, this is a disaster, it was Ian Paisley. The fact that someone
:02:35. > :02:38.can say something at a moment in time does not mean that provided
:02:39. > :02:42.those who want to take this forward continue to do so, they cannot make
:02:43. > :02:54.progress. There have been so many, yes it is very to say that you can
:02:55. > :02:56.go back through history and say there have been false dawns, but
:02:57. > :02:58.there have been plenty of fresh starts as well and sometimes. Tony
:02:59. > :03:01.Blair said many times, this process either goes forwards or backwards,
:03:02. > :03:05.it never stand still and we have seen that and thankfully, what
:03:06. > :03:11.happened is that it looked like it was going backwards and now, albeit
:03:12. > :03:14.slowly, it is moving forwards. The Tories handled negotiations here
:03:15. > :03:19.very differently to the way that Tony Blair did. Do you think their
:03:20. > :03:23.hands off approach and David Cameron has not got involved, do you think
:03:24. > :03:32.that this approach has worked in the circumstances? I do think that there
:03:33. > :03:35.is a sense and this is not a criticism of David Cameron, if you
:03:36. > :03:39.were to say what are the big priorities for your government in
:03:40. > :03:42.this Parliament, then Northern Ireland is not automatically going
:03:43. > :03:47.to leap to the top when you have things like the European referendum,
:03:48. > :03:54.like Islamic State, climate change other challenges, when Tony Blair
:03:55. > :03:57.was Prime Minister, for most of the time, he stated that Northern
:03:58. > :04:02.Ireland was a big priority. It is evidence of how far we have come
:04:03. > :04:07.that that should not be the case. I do think sometimes that politicians
:04:08. > :04:12.here feel that they need more support and more input from the UK
:04:13. > :04:19.Government at times. I think that the fact that it didn't reach the
:04:20. > :04:22.point it has reached now with the 31-macro document, that is something
:04:23. > :04:34.that all of us should be pleased about -- Fresh Start. Were you
:04:35. > :04:43.surprised when you heard that Peter Robinson was stepping down? Not
:04:44. > :04:49.really. I think that Peter Robinson is one of the many people who
:04:50. > :04:53.understands the life he leads at the top of an organisation like that. He
:04:54. > :04:58.has devoted so many years to a political career and there comes a
:04:59. > :05:05.point... These are personal decisions. They are about people
:05:06. > :05:10.deciding, as public servants but also partly about themselves,
:05:11. > :05:18.whether they feel it is time to move on and I was surprised. I did not
:05:19. > :05:22.know it was coming. I think sometimes people underestimate the
:05:23. > :05:27.extent to which politicians are really tough business people. In
:05:28. > :05:32.this part of the world particularly, it is very tough. They
:05:33. > :05:38.do not get a lot of credit or sympathy. They get quite a lot of
:05:39. > :05:42.grief along the way. I think that Peter Robinson is entitled to make
:05:43. > :05:46.that decision for himself and I know that he will have done it in part,
:05:47. > :05:50.at least a very large part, thinking about his public service and his
:05:51. > :05:54.role as a public servant. He has been on quite a political journey,
:05:55. > :06:00.he was very much a thorn in your side at the time of the Good Friday
:06:01. > :06:07.Agreement and now he is standing up for a shared future and reaching
:06:08. > :06:10.compromises with his one-time nemesis, Martin McGuiness. I have
:06:11. > :06:17.said before that one of the most extraordinary moments of my life
:06:18. > :06:23.after I left Downing Street. I left when Tony was still Prime Minister
:06:24. > :06:27.and I was going to do an engagement in Dublin and I landed at the
:06:28. > :06:31.airport and there was a billboard there and it was the first time I
:06:32. > :06:34.saw the headline, the chuckle Brothers with Martin McGuiness and
:06:35. > :06:39.Ian Paisley together, laughing and working together and I thought, my
:06:40. > :06:43.God, if we had said at the start of the peace process, one day Ian
:06:44. > :06:47.Paisley and Martin McGuiness would be called the chuckle Brothers,
:06:48. > :06:53.people would have locked you out. The reality is, one of the reasons
:06:54. > :06:59.why this process has worked to the extent it has is because there has
:07:00. > :07:04.been an extraordinary collection of people really quite remarkable
:07:05. > :07:07.people in all of the different parts of it who somehow, they have all
:07:08. > :07:11.been around at the same time and they have all managed to make the
:07:12. > :07:15.changes they have made. I think sometimes if you are living in
:07:16. > :07:20.something, right in the centre of your own bubble and you can have all
:07:21. > :07:24.these questions about this or about, but when you stand back from it and
:07:25. > :07:29.little bit and you think about how far people have come and as you say,
:07:30. > :07:33.someone like Peter Robinson who was, he could be a complete and total
:07:34. > :07:38.pain to us when we were trying to do the stuff in the early days and I
:07:39. > :07:41.was there, contributing hugely to the political life of Northern
:07:42. > :07:47.Ireland alongside Martin McGuiness, it is an extraordinary story. Can I
:07:48. > :07:52.move you on to the international issue of the moment, you played your
:07:53. > :07:57.part in the UK's involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, do you have
:07:58. > :08:06.confidence in David Cameron's handling of the current crisis in
:08:07. > :08:11.Syria? Because I was on the way here, I did not see his statement
:08:12. > :08:15.but I certainly do have a complete appreciation of how difficult the
:08:16. > :08:20.situations are and how difficult the decisions are as well. I do
:08:21. > :08:24.think... I was on record at the time, months back, when Ed Miliband
:08:25. > :08:29.was Labour leader and David Cameron was trying to wind parliamentary
:08:30. > :08:39.support for action in Syria, military action, I have never
:08:40. > :08:43.thought of it as the solution, but it might be part of it and therefore
:08:44. > :08:46.I think it is important that he does get the support and the authority he
:08:47. > :08:51.is looking for. What do you make of the argument that the risk posed by
:08:52. > :08:56.UK citizens by Islamic State jihadist on these shores has
:08:57. > :09:06.increased if UK are strikes take place in Syria. I understand why
:09:07. > :09:09.people say that, but I say I have a complete appreciation of how
:09:10. > :09:14.difficult these decisions are for prime ministers and MPs who are
:09:15. > :09:23.making up their minds on this. We have got to break this narrative
:09:24. > :09:27.that says that somehow that this is something we have brought upon
:09:28. > :09:32.ourselves. Yes, you can go out... You could find and I could find
:09:33. > :09:35.people who will say that they are radicalised because of what Tony
:09:36. > :09:42.Blair and George Bush did in relation to Iraq, you can find
:09:43. > :09:48.people, but the jihadist cars that are talking about and leaders around
:09:49. > :09:53.the world are having to face up to, it predated all of that and it is an
:09:54. > :09:58.ideology. That is why it is difficult, that is why it is not
:09:59. > :10:03.just about military action and the use of soft powers. It is not just
:10:04. > :10:07.about trying to integrate people into communities. I do think this is
:10:08. > :10:15.one of the most difficult challenges that any leaders have faced. That is
:10:16. > :10:18.why I am broadly sympathetic to a government that is trying at least
:10:19. > :10:23.to give itself the different options that it thinks it might need,
:10:24. > :10:27.working in collaboration with others facing the same challenge. I know
:10:28. > :10:38.you have been travelling over the last 24 hours, but did you see the
:10:39. > :10:52.Shadow Chancellor producing his copy of Chairman Mao's Little Red Book.
:10:53. > :10:56.Yes. I did not miss that. Again, I have to ask you, if you were
:10:57. > :11:00.advising John McDonnell, was that a stroke of genius or was that
:11:01. > :11:05.possibly the biggest mistake he has made in his political career? I
:11:06. > :11:14.suspect he may have made bigger, I do not know. One of the things that
:11:15. > :11:20.I think for all the abuse and vitriol that gets thrown at Tony
:11:21. > :11:25.Blair, one of the important lessons that everyone in politics should
:11:26. > :11:30.learn from him is that you must never ever lose sight of the fact
:11:31. > :11:35.that politics is not a bubble, you're not inside a bubble, it is
:11:36. > :11:39.not about in jokes, it is about the people. If you do not win the
:11:40. > :11:43.power, you do not win general elections and you do not get the
:11:44. > :11:47.power and you cannot make the sort of changes you need to make as a
:11:48. > :11:52.government. All the things that John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn were
:11:53. > :11:55.complaining about that for happening in the spending review yesterday,
:11:56. > :11:59.they are happening because we lost the election. I have got into this
:12:00. > :12:04.thing now of asking people, not how they would vote, not whether they
:12:05. > :12:08.would vote, not whatever party they have allegiance to, but asking if
:12:09. > :12:12.they think that Jeremy Corbyn can win the next General Election. That
:12:13. > :12:19.is a question that a lot of people seem to be having trouble with.
:12:20. > :12:29.So the answer you get back is no? Correct. Are you saying you do not
:12:30. > :12:36.think Labour can win an election with germy Corbin at the helm? I am
:12:37. > :12:40.not saying that, but I am saying that is what the British public seem
:12:41. > :12:45.to be saying and I think if you lose sight of the fact that politics is
:12:46. > :12:49.all about where you are with the public, and not the people who
:12:50. > :12:53.joined up at the last minute and voted for him and the people who go
:12:54. > :13:00.on marches and rallies, they have an important place in politics but I am
:13:01. > :13:04.talking about people who do not do that, who don't think about politics
:13:05. > :13:09.often, and I want the Labour Party to be in power. I don't like this
:13:10. > :13:14.government, I don't like a lot of things it is doing but we have to
:13:15. > :13:19.face up to the fact that for all sorts of reasons, and we have to
:13:20. > :13:25.accept the things the Labour government did under Tony Blair that
:13:26. > :13:29.were hugely unpopular, not just Iraq but tuition fees, we had to make the
:13:30. > :13:35.case for those things, but at the last election we made certain
:13:36. > :13:40.errors, not just on the economy, and I think we lost the election and I
:13:41. > :13:43.do not want to see us lose another one that could be won.
:13:44. > :13:44.Alastair Campbell not pulling any punches on
:13:45. > :13:47.Now, amid the tragedies of the migrant crisis
:13:48. > :13:51.and the aftermath of the attacks on Paris and Europe's response, the day
:13:52. > :13:54.is drawing closer when the UK will decide on its future in the EU.
:13:55. > :13:57.We don't yet know the date of the referendum - but
:13:58. > :14:00.the debate has got under way on the possible consquences that withdrawal
:14:01. > :14:05.Today, Queen's University hosted a discussion featuring the
:14:06. > :14:08.Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Charlie Flanagan, and the
:14:09. > :14:23.This is not just about the nation chips our islands, or the British
:14:24. > :14:30.and Irish relationship, as important as these are, but it is also about
:14:31. > :14:38.livelihoods, living standards, jobs, that to my mind are firmly on the
:14:39. > :14:43.line. I know the risks to our economy are matched by other risks,
:14:44. > :14:49.it has been forecast that GDP could decline by 3%, that 1 billion euros
:14:50. > :14:54.would be taken out of the economy, which would be a heavy price for the
:14:55. > :15:01.people of Northern Ireland. We are not in the euro, we are not part of
:15:02. > :15:06.Europe's Schengen area, so I questioned some of the more
:15:07. > :15:11.exaggerated Europhile scare stories about the consequences of Britain
:15:12. > :15:15.leaving the EU. Many have been advanced by the same people and the
:15:16. > :15:18.same institutions who said if we didn't join the euro it would be a
:15:19. > :15:20.disaster for the UK. With me now are the TUV leader,
:15:21. > :15:23.Jim Allister, who supports a British exit from the EU, and the
:15:24. > :15:34.SDLP's Alban Maginness, who wants You are both welcome. Jim Allister,
:15:35. > :15:41.are you confident in the Prime Minister's capacity to renegotiate
:15:42. > :15:45.the UK's turns in the EU? No, and you can judge by the quality and
:15:46. > :15:50.content of his letter that he is not serious and self about it, he is
:15:51. > :15:55.asking for the minimum of things so he can claim some victory and
:15:56. > :16:00.recommend we continue to be in the EU, whereas for the future of this
:16:01. > :16:04.nation we need deliberation that would come from loosening the
:16:05. > :16:10.shackles and escaping from the EU because it is yesterday's failed
:16:11. > :16:16.vision. The future lies in the developing world, the EU share of
:16:17. > :16:20.world trade is vastly diminishing, we now trade more outside the EU
:16:21. > :16:25.than within yet we cannot make a trade deal with anyone, only Europe
:16:26. > :16:30.can do that for us, so it would be liberating to escape as a trading
:16:31. > :16:36.nation and build links with the rest of the world and regain control of
:16:37. > :16:42.our own destiny and borders, something very important in light of
:16:43. > :16:44.recent events. That doesn't really chime with what the business
:16:45. > :16:49.community in Northern Ireland seems to think. The group Chief Executive
:16:50. > :16:55.of Dale farm and chair of inter-trade Ireland spoke on a Radio
:16:56. > :16:58.Ulster isn't a grant and said while the EU was far from perfect he could
:16:59. > :17:03.not see an upside in withdrawal, they thought we would leave the
:17:04. > :17:09.biggest free trade zone in the world is a region dependent on agriculture
:17:10. > :17:14.and manufacturing, it would be catastrophic to think of leaving.
:17:15. > :17:21.The CBI, who are cheerleaders for Europe, are heavily from the front
:17:22. > :17:26.Brussels, so are doing their bidding, but the UK ports ?20
:17:27. > :17:32.billion a year into Brussels. With the rebate and EU grants we get back
:17:33. > :17:40.half of that, so every year it costs ?10 billion. Northern Ireland is a
:17:41. > :17:48.net recipient. No, our share of the contribution is in the order of ?500
:17:49. > :17:54.million. We get back 300 thousand in -- 300 million in agriculture, so
:17:55. > :18:01.even we who have another look more than most or a net contributor, but
:18:02. > :18:05.this is a national decision and it would be liberating for the UK to
:18:06. > :18:10.recapture control of itself and its borders, and to open up the world
:18:11. > :18:18.expanse that lies out there for our trade. Allman McGuinness, has Jim
:18:19. > :18:28.Allister got his figures right? -- Albany McGuinness? I don't think so,
:18:29. > :18:34.but leaving that aside, the EU is a huge market. Our business people and
:18:35. > :18:40.our farmers, and Jim should talk to farmers in North Antrim and ask them
:18:41. > :18:52.their view of leaving the EU because our farmers get ?400 million...
:18:53. > :19:01.Well, 420 14. -- ?400 million in 2014. Money comes to the farmers
:19:02. > :19:06.from Europe. Which we paid in. The people who farmed the land need that
:19:07. > :19:12.money to sustain themselves and the people on the farms in our country
:19:13. > :19:17.recognise that there is a benefit, as indeed do the business people,
:19:18. > :19:24.because they know that market is so vague and important. You would not
:19:25. > :19:31.able to attract people in terms of inward investment here if Northern
:19:32. > :19:38.Ireland leaves the EU. Why do you think so many people in Northern
:19:39. > :19:44.Ireland appear to be unconvinced about the merits of remaining with
:19:45. > :19:49.in an unfettered EU? I am not certain that is true. I think a
:19:50. > :19:58.series of opinion polls will determine that. Look at the European
:19:59. > :20:04.election last May. The TUV and Ukip candidate can bind got 100,000
:20:05. > :20:10.votes. And the DUP and Sinn Fein were elected, both of them would be
:20:11. > :20:17.Eurosceptic in fact the DUP is ostensibly anti-European. You are
:20:18. > :20:22.making my point for me. No, because people are voting for parties not on
:20:23. > :20:24.the basis of Europe but on narrow sectarian interests here in Northern
:20:25. > :20:31.Ireland, and that is a problem for us. We have to develop a big vision
:20:32. > :20:39.in relation to Europe. We cannot be insular. Northern Ireland is a small
:20:40. > :20:44.part of the UK, it is also a region within Ireland and it is therefore
:20:45. > :20:50.interdependent on both the Republic and the UK in order to get the
:20:51. > :20:57.maximum benefits it requires to be in the European Union. It is not
:20:58. > :21:03.about being insular. My vision is to open our eyes to the rest of the
:21:04. > :21:10.world. But by closing your eyes to the European Union. It is moribund,
:21:11. > :21:16.in ten years time its share of the world GDP will be down to 22%. It is
:21:17. > :21:22.yesterday's story as far as world trade is concerned. Look at the
:21:23. > :21:26.eurozone and the catastrophe it has been recently and yet people want to
:21:27. > :21:33.tie us closer to that went out there there is a trading world where we as
:21:34. > :21:39.a nation can flourish. Why would we chain ourselves to something that is
:21:40. > :21:44.failing and declining? You point out difficult ease that exist in terms
:21:45. > :21:49.of red tape, yet you scrap that and you try to set up, however complex
:21:50. > :21:55.that would be, new trade deals with other trading locks, you would be
:21:56. > :21:58.tied up with the same red tape. You couldn't guarantee that would not be
:21:59. > :22:04.the case, so you would swap one red tape or another. No, because we
:22:05. > :22:09.would then have the right to conclude around trade deals. No
:22:10. > :22:14.member state can trade with anyone, we would be master of own destiny
:22:15. > :22:21.and the rest of Europe would still trade with us because we are
:22:22. > :22:27.running... You don't just wave your magic wand. Article 50 of the
:22:28. > :22:33.Lisburn Treaty imposes an obligation on the EU in respect of any exiting
:22:34. > :22:38.country that they shall conclude a trading with them, so we're
:22:39. > :22:43.guaranteed one, but because they sell us more than we sell them, they
:22:44. > :22:49.will still want to sell their BMWs in the UK, so they will fall over
:22:50. > :22:53.themselves to maintain trade links and we will be able to expand our
:22:54. > :23:00.trade links were our growth Markets are. One of the implications of this
:23:01. > :23:04.debate, as far as Northern Ireland is concerned, trading with our
:23:05. > :23:14.nearest partner, the Republic of Ireland? It will create terrible
:23:15. > :23:19.difficulties. Will it necessarily? Yes, because we will be outside the
:23:20. > :23:24.EU and being inside the EU means there is freedom of labour and
:23:25. > :23:30.capital between North and South in this Ireland -- in this Ireland over
:23:31. > :23:37.the past 40 years, and that means we can work together in terms of trade
:23:38. > :23:42.and commerce and industry, and economically that is a benefit to
:23:43. > :23:51.both parts of Ireland. Do you want to see a new network, Jim Allister,
:23:52. > :23:58.posts across-the-board? -- of custom poets? I believe if we leave the EU
:23:59. > :24:04.the Republic of Ireland may see the wisdom of that. You complain about
:24:05. > :24:08.the Republic of Ireland or think its nose in our business that you are
:24:09. > :24:14.coming close to sticking your nose in its business. They might discover
:24:15. > :24:21.their economic interests lie elsewhere than in the EU, but last
:24:22. > :24:26.year our experts were 14 billion, 8 billion to the rest of the UK. Of
:24:27. > :24:32.the remaining 6 billion, only half was to the EU and of that 2 billion
:24:33. > :24:39.to the Republic. The other 3 billion was to the rest of the world, so our
:24:40. > :24:43.dependency is outside the EU and with the rest of the UK and the rest
:24:44. > :24:48.of the world, and that is the case in Northern Ireland. Ireland is one
:24:49. > :24:53.of the biggest trading partners with the UK, so it is important to
:24:54. > :24:59.maintain that link in terms of the union. Apart from that, the
:25:00. > :25:04.political union is very important for the relationship between great
:25:05. > :25:11.rotten and Ireland, and Northern Ireland and the Republic -- Great
:25:12. > :25:15.Britain. It all comes together, solid economic arguments for staying
:25:16. > :25:20.within Europe, and good political arguments for staying in Europe. Do
:25:21. > :25:26.you think the tide is moving at the moment, given the way the debate has
:25:27. > :25:31.changed, even just in the past few months, there is now a head of steam
:25:32. > :25:38.holding up behind the possibility of Greg said in a way that there was
:25:39. > :25:44.not a year ago? -- Brexit? Does that worry you? It does, and I think
:25:45. > :25:51.those of us in Northern Ireland, especially parties who are pro-EU
:25:52. > :25:55.like the SDLP and Alliance, that we campaigned strongly because the
:25:56. > :26:01.Northern Ireland vote could determine the overall UK vote. Jim
:26:02. > :26:06.Allister, would you be concerned that people make construct
:26:07. > :26:11.arguments, even make decisions, potentially vote on an emotional
:26:12. > :26:15.knee jerk reaction after things like that Paris attacks and the lockdown
:26:16. > :26:22.in Brussels, rather than look at the economic fact as laid out over the
:26:23. > :26:25.months ahead? Am sure there will be contributors to how people make up
:26:26. > :26:32.their minds. That would be dangerous. It is a valid for a
:26:33. > :26:38.nation to look around and say it is common sense to control our own
:26:39. > :26:41.borders, yet in the EU we surrender that, so controlling our borders and
:26:42. > :26:47.our destiny, deciding who we will trade with, our component parts of a
:26:48. > :26:51.vibrant, growing economy and nation state, and that is what I want to
:26:52. > :26:54.see rather than be tied to something dragging us down. I suspect we will
:26:55. > :26:59.hear more of that. Thank you both. Now, for anyone who attended the DUP
:27:00. > :27:01.conference last weekend there's unlikely to be
:27:02. > :27:04.a leadership contest. Instead the die seems cast
:27:05. > :27:07.for the 'coronation' of Nigel Dodds as leader and Arlene Foster
:27:08. > :27:08.as First Minister. More on this with
:27:09. > :27:10.our commentators shortly - I bid each of you a fond
:27:11. > :27:17.and affectionate farewell. For Peter Robinson, the end
:27:18. > :27:24.of the political road is near, Unless the party was trying to lay
:27:25. > :27:30.a false trail, Saturday's conference seemed to confirm what
:27:31. > :27:34.everyone else believes - his deputy, Nigel Dodds, will become leader
:27:35. > :27:40.with Arlene Foster First Minister. Nigel has been faithful,
:27:41. > :27:42.loyal and wise and always willing You don't just see him
:27:43. > :27:57.when the cameras roll. He's there to do his portion
:27:58. > :27:59.of the unappealing drudgery And my thanks to Arlene Foster,
:28:00. > :28:03.our Finance Minister, who has effectively deputised
:28:04. > :28:07.for me at Stormont. The message seemed pointed and
:28:08. > :28:10.the sustained applause for Arlene Foster the answer to those who would
:28:11. > :28:13.claim the DUP rank and file wouldn't allow such an important post to go
:28:14. > :28:32.to a former Ulster Unionist. Can we justify Nigel Dodds about
:28:33. > :28:34.Sterling speech? I somehow think he is a man will be hearing more from
:28:35. > :28:37.in the future. We will what happens. But according to an academic who
:28:38. > :28:41.interviewed Nigel Dodds for a book about the DUP last year, he
:28:42. > :28:52.has reservations about whether the Nigel Dodds is on record as saying
:28:53. > :28:56.that the party leader has to be a member of the assembly. They are
:28:57. > :28:58.trying to circumvent that if Arlene Foster is First Minister.
:28:59. > :29:00.Unless, that is, someone else puts their hand up and
:29:01. > :29:05.The East Antrim MP Sammy Wilson was asked last week if
:29:06. > :29:14.I have said time and time again, until there is the leadership
:29:15. > :29:18.contest, I will not be saying anything about what I am doing.
:29:19. > :29:23.Maybe the deputy leadership? Peter Robinson is still the leader, the
:29:24. > :29:27.party will make a decision as to when and how things are going to
:29:28. > :29:31.change and I am not saying what I'm going to do or not going to do.
:29:32. > :29:35.MUSIC: 'For He's A Jolly Good Fellow'.
:29:36. > :29:37.But public division is not the DUP's way of doing things,
:29:38. > :29:40.and unless they're about to start, the way ahead seems clear.
:29:41. > :29:42.So it it a shoo-in for Nigel and Arlene?
:29:43. > :29:44.Let's put that question to Newton Emerson and
:29:45. > :29:49.Cathy Gormley-Heenan, back together again in Commentators' Corner.
:29:50. > :29:57.Happily back together again. Good to see you both. Should we be getting
:29:58. > :30:03.our gladrags ready for a coronation? I think so. The Belfast
:30:04. > :30:08.Telegraph did a survey at the conference. 98% said that Arlene
:30:09. > :30:14.Foster was their favourite to be First Minister. I do not think those
:30:15. > :30:18.North Korean levels are going to survive the contest. Nigel Dodds and
:30:19. > :30:26.Arlene Foster are really a dream ticket for the DUP. That is if there
:30:27. > :30:29.is a contest. Do you think there will be a contest? Will other people
:30:30. > :30:32.throw their hats in the ring? The remarks from Sammy Wilson were
:30:33. > :30:36.interesting. In the 40 years of the DUP's existence there has ever been
:30:37. > :30:40.a leadership contest, someone has always been appointed to the post,
:30:41. > :30:43.but that is not to say that it cannot change. The Ulster Unionist
:30:44. > :30:50.Party changed over the years in terms of how they are elected their
:30:51. > :30:54.party leader, they moved from the selection of the council to a
:30:55. > :30:59.broader membership and as it stands, Peter Robinson was elected with
:31:00. > :31:03.votes from the assembly members and we do not know and Sammy Wilson
:31:04. > :31:08.alluded to that, whether or not this electorate of the party leadership
:31:09. > :31:16.will broaden out beyond that. Does this matter that Professor Jon Tonge
:31:17. > :31:21.had said that the leader would have to be an assembly ladder -- member?
:31:22. > :31:26.Like politicians always say, they never want to be leader when asked
:31:27. > :31:28.and in this case you have to consider he was talking about the
:31:29. > :31:32.party being led by one person, that is part of the reason why this dire
:31:33. > :31:39.key is part of the reason why this dire gears been opposed -- macro
:31:40. > :31:45.proposed. I think that these Alastair Campbell figures cover all
:31:46. > :31:49.the political bases in the party. They are quite popular across the
:31:50. > :31:54.party and that helps patch up any differences that might be. Could
:31:55. > :31:58.they work together? You could have a 3 headed monster, you can have a
:31:59. > :32:02.separate Deputy Leader which is another possibility to satisfy
:32:03. > :32:08.another wing in the party. That is the unknown. The relationship that
:32:09. > :32:14.these two will have together, they have ever worked together before,
:32:15. > :32:19.this plan, people think it is Robinson's succession plan but it is
:32:20. > :32:22.bigger, it has come organically out of the party once had realised that
:32:23. > :32:26.Peter Robinson is on the way out. It is more something that has been
:32:27. > :32:31.forced upon these two. This is an important point because the way in
:32:32. > :32:37.which a party selects its leader is indicative, it is was like a litmus
:32:38. > :32:41.test for the democratic nature of the party. If it is as Newton says,
:32:42. > :32:47.this has been agreed as part of the plan. It says a lot in terms of that
:32:48. > :32:51.acid test for the democratic nature of the internal workings of the
:32:52. > :32:54.party. How big a challenge might it be for the two of them to work with
:32:55. > :32:58.Sinn Fein when both of them personally in the past during the
:32:59. > :33:05.troubles were targeted by Republicans? -- Troubles. Many
:33:06. > :33:09.people have lived with those experiences and managed to work
:33:10. > :33:13.together, it is not a case of their experiences but the temperament and
:33:14. > :33:17.I think it might be something to watch. Let us move on to Alistair
:33:18. > :33:21.Campbell, very interesting to get his thoughts on a wide range of
:33:22. > :33:25.issues on the programme tonight, what did you make about what he had
:33:26. > :33:31.to say concerning the Labour Party as it currently stands being led by
:33:32. > :33:33.Jeremy Corbyn? It was less than a ringing endorsement. It certainly
:33:34. > :33:37.was not a ringing endorsement and it fits well with the conversation we
:33:38. > :33:41.have just had in terms of this electorate for the DUP leadership
:33:42. > :33:45.because it was very much expanded for the election of Jeremy Corbyn
:33:46. > :33:50.and one wonders if that is part of the problem. Research would suggest
:33:51. > :33:52.that even if you do broaden your selectors and allow
:33:53. > :33:57.parliamentarians, party officers and members to vote for a leader that
:33:58. > :34:03.they tend to vote for the same type of leader anyway. I would be
:34:04. > :34:06.cautious in suggesting that it was because the doors were opened and
:34:07. > :34:12.effectively to all party members with their ?3 to vote for Jeremy
:34:13. > :34:16.Corbyn. Long-term members voted in the same proportion for Jeremy
:34:17. > :34:20.Corbyn. This is the natural to choice of leader. Is it wrong to
:34:21. > :34:26.imagine the Malcolm Tucker like conversations that might take place
:34:27. > :34:34.if Alistair Campbell was in the role now that he was all those years ago
:34:35. > :34:39.ayes I think of course, Seamus Mallon is an even more incredible
:34:40. > :34:47.character. But he is a fan of Jeremy Corbyn. I think you could see that
:34:48. > :34:52.he might have thought that was a good idea. It was pretty obvious
:34:53. > :34:57.that Alistair Kamber -- Alistair Campbell did not think of is a good
:34:58. > :35:00.idea. A more seasoned political opponent during Question Time would
:35:01. > :35:05.have known that a little snippet like that could be taken out of
:35:06. > :35:09.context and if you look at the full recording, it does not do justice in
:35:10. > :35:15.quite the same way that that's the dead. The optics of it are very
:35:16. > :35:27.different from what he was saying, but unfortunately, he did not
:35:28. > :35:33.realise that. Let us talk about the Brexit debate. They are not
:35:34. > :35:38.considering the implications. This is Western Europe, we are not going
:35:39. > :35:44.to go hungry. If UK votes to leave the EU, there is a real possibility
:35:45. > :35:48.that Scotland will vote to leave the UK. To leave the UK and stay in the
:35:49. > :35:52.EU. Jim Allister raise the possibility of the Republic of
:35:53. > :35:57.Ireland having to think about also leaving the EU. We often argue that
:35:58. > :35:59.people boil everything down to unionist and nationalist Argos but
:36:00. > :36:04.this seems to be a case where Unionists are not thinking enough.
:36:05. > :36:08.They could break up the UK by following this. Most of the debate
:36:09. > :36:12.tonight was around economic issues and not around the political issues
:36:13. > :36:16.and I wonder how much David Cameron will take the views of the four
:36:17. > :36:22.constituent parts of the UK if the result of that is different from
:36:23. > :36:25.Engen. I think the circumstances for Northern Ireland are so very
:36:26. > :36:30.different from elsewhere in the UK that he would have to take that
:36:31. > :36:35.seriously. The entire Good Friday Agreement was based on the premise
:36:36. > :36:39.of them being on the use of the issues there in the North and South
:36:40. > :36:43.arrangements. If the anguish vote to leave there will not allow any other
:36:44. > :36:47.constituent part to stop them -- English. I suspect it will be a
:36:48. > :36:49.lively debate. That's it from The View
:36:50. > :36:51.for this week. Join me for Sunday Politics
:36:52. > :36:54.at 11:35pm here on BBC One. We leave you tonight with
:36:55. > :36:57.a look back at the colourful and, at times, highly controversial career
:36:58. > :36:59.of Alderman Ruth Patterson, who was From everyone in the team,
:37:00. > :37:16.bye-bye. May God forgive them for what they
:37:17. > :37:23.have just under Ulster. -- just done to Ulster.
:37:24. > :37:35.I'm very proud of stir Protestant. -- I am a very proud Ulster
:37:36. > :37:47.Protestant. Is it appropriate for our member to be wearing a football
:37:48. > :37:51.scarf. I love my political party. Party officers unanimously decided
:37:52. > :37:58.to expel her. It would be heart-wrenching for me to leave.