:00:11. > :00:13.A selection correction for Sinn Fein in Fermanagh South Tyrone.
:00:14. > :00:17.And in, out, or undecided - it's business versus politics
:00:18. > :00:38.She was on the ballot paper, off the ballot paper,
:00:39. > :00:42.Tonight we ask what went wrong with Sinn Fein's selection process
:00:43. > :00:52.Michelle Gildernew says her focus now is on fighting May's election.
:00:53. > :00:57.One of the candidates in this constituency headed up the
:00:58. > :01:01.enterprise Department for seven years and very few jobs were brought
:01:02. > :01:03.to Fermanagh. She obviously was not looking very hard if that is what
:01:04. > :01:04.she is saying. Plus, the gloves are off
:01:05. > :01:07.in the debate over staying As the debate hots up we'll hear
:01:08. > :01:10.from business leaders and a politican on both
:01:11. > :01:12.sides of the argument. the fashion gauntlet,
:01:13. > :01:16.dressed for success in Commentators' Corner are Dawn Purvis
:01:17. > :01:25.and Chris Donnelly. She's been both the Sinn Fein MP and
:01:26. > :01:28.an MLA for Fermangh South Tyrone, but getting her name on the ballot
:01:29. > :01:31.paper for May's election Now Michelle Gildernew has spoken
:01:32. > :01:35.publicly for the first time about the recent controversy
:01:36. > :01:37.surrounding the selection Our Political Correspondent,
:01:38. > :01:41.Stephen Walker, has been to the constituency to examine
:01:42. > :02:07.the electoral battle This place always provides election
:02:08. > :02:14.headlines. Sands, Bobby, H Block, Armagh, political prisoner,
:02:15. > :02:20.30,000... 492. I would expect nothing better from the scum of Sinn
:02:21. > :02:24.Fein than to come out like this. We won this seat by four votes, anyone
:02:25. > :02:30.who did five minutes work in this election could claim those votes. In
:02:31. > :02:35.recent weeks, Sinn Fein have produced their own drama here in
:02:36. > :02:38.their attempts to select assembly candidates. At Sinn Fein's first
:02:39. > :02:42.selection convention three candidates were chosen and they
:02:43. > :02:48.included the Shell Guild. There was no room on the ticket for the
:02:49. > :02:55.sitting MLA. That conversion was deemed invalid and the sacking
:02:56. > :02:59.commission was held. This time Flanagan was reinstated and Michelle
:03:00. > :03:04.Gildernew did not make the list. This main Sinn Fein had chosen three
:03:05. > :03:10.male candidates with none of them representing the Tyrone end of the
:03:11. > :03:15.constituency. A third convention was held and this time, Michelle
:03:16. > :03:20.Gildernew was reinstated. In her first interview about the selection
:03:21. > :03:24.process, the former MP says common sense has finally prevailed. The
:03:25. > :03:29.first convention saw me getting through and been a candidate and the
:03:30. > :03:34.second one, the vote was split and I narrowly missed out and I think
:03:35. > :03:38.people realised that they could not run Fermanagh South Tyrone assembly
:03:39. > :03:41.elections without not only the gender balance being wrong but the
:03:42. > :03:46.fact that there were three Fermanagh men on the ticket. Did it hurt when
:03:47. > :03:51.you were not selected?. I was disappointed. People were very
:03:52. > :03:54.shocked. That is the nature of a democratic decision within the
:03:55. > :03:59.party. I think a lot of people were surprised that I lost out. Was
:04:00. > :04:05.everything about the selection process above board? Things were run
:04:06. > :04:10.impeccably. There was a disparity in the figures. Someone accidentally
:04:11. > :04:15.got two Darren -- ballot papers but I cannot fault either in the
:04:16. > :04:19.December convention or the January convention. Things were run
:04:20. > :04:24.properly? Absolutely. Another local woman on the ballot paper in May
:04:25. > :04:30.will be the First Minister Arlene Foster. She says she is baffled by
:04:31. > :04:34.Sinn Fein's decisions. It was a rather strange selection process for
:04:35. > :04:38.Sinn Fein and they eventually got the situation where Michelle was
:04:39. > :04:42.back in the race and was an unedifying sight to see the way in
:04:43. > :04:47.which Sinn Fein conducted themselves. In fact you may say that
:04:48. > :04:52.the Democratic Unionist party is the only party with stability in
:04:53. > :04:56.Fermanagh South Tyrone, we are going forward with our two candidates
:04:57. > :05:00.unanimously endorsed by the local association. Arlene Foster's running
:05:01. > :05:03.mate will be Lord Morrow the social development Minister. The Ulster
:05:04. > :05:08.Unionists have one seat here and they are hoping for a second. We are
:05:09. > :05:12.going to make a very positive approach within the selection. We
:05:13. > :05:14.are pushing ahead, the momentum currently we feel is with the Ulster
:05:15. > :05:37.Unionist Party. We have a very strong team of
:05:38. > :05:40.counsellors in Fermanagh and South Tyrone and we are looking to build
:05:41. > :05:42.on that and we are looking to push to return two Ulster Unionist
:05:43. > :05:44.candidate to the Assembly. Within nationalism there will be a battle
:05:45. > :05:47.but for years Sinn Fein have had the upper hand. If BST PR serious about
:05:48. > :05:50.making an impact it is in places like this where they will have to
:05:51. > :05:52.succeed. Despite the fact that in previous assembly elections there
:05:53. > :05:54.about has been decreasing, party activists here are convinced they
:05:55. > :05:57.can recapture the seat they lost five years ago. How will the SDLP
:05:58. > :06:02.fare in a constituency dominated by the larger parties and well known
:06:03. > :06:07.politicians? The First Minister is in the constituency. Michelle being
:06:08. > :06:12.the former Agriculture Minister, and former MP, but the fact is all
:06:13. > :06:16.parties are big hitters in some sense of the word. We are in there
:06:17. > :06:22.in the fight and we are in there to take back the seat irrespective of
:06:23. > :06:28.everyone else. What will dominate the election? For many, the economy
:06:29. > :06:30.is key. One of the Candlewick -- candidates in this constituency
:06:31. > :06:35.headed up the enterprise murmured and very few jobs were brought to
:06:36. > :06:38.Fermanagh. We have got to address the issues affecting daily lives,
:06:39. > :06:44.the state of the roads, schools, health is a massive issue here and
:06:45. > :06:47.we need to send people back into the Assembly who can represent our
:06:48. > :06:51.constituents to the best of their ability. That criticism is aimed at
:06:52. > :06:56.all in cost who was once Economy Minister. Of course we brought jobs
:06:57. > :07:00.and we hope to bring more and I am proud of the skills base here. I
:07:01. > :07:04.worked with the Southwest College and all of the schools to make sure
:07:05. > :07:08.that we have the appropriate skills and I look forward to more jobs
:07:09. > :07:12.coming in the future. Some say that extra help is needed. We need more
:07:13. > :07:16.support and we need more jobs to keep our youth here. There is no
:07:17. > :07:25.point in educating our youth for export as a has-been in the past. It
:07:26. > :07:27.is not just the economy that will feature on the campaign trail. It is
:07:28. > :07:29.health, education, our infrastructure. Particularly in
:07:30. > :07:32.Fermanagh there have been issues around flooding which has been a big
:07:33. > :07:38.issue and I think the executive have failed to tackle the issue head on.
:07:39. > :07:41.This constituency is normally evenly split between Unionist and
:07:42. > :07:45.nationalist votes. During the campaign there will be plenty of
:07:46. > :07:47.political arguments and as the ballot paper reveals, no shortage of
:07:48. > :07:52.personalities. We're just a few days
:07:53. > :07:56.into a referendum campaign that's due to last for four months,
:07:57. > :07:58.but already the battle-lines have been firmly drawn
:07:59. > :08:00.and the debate between the ins Tonight I'm joined by
:08:01. > :08:04.representatives from the worlds of business and politics -
:08:05. > :08:06.an evenly matched foursome for and against staying
:08:07. > :08:08.in the European Union. Welcome Ian Paisley
:08:09. > :08:19.and David Dobbin, Ian Paisley, the Prime Minister says
:08:20. > :08:24.the UK will be safer stronger and better off remaining in the EU, our
:08:25. > :08:29.vote to leave would be a leap in the dark. How has he got that wrong? Can
:08:30. > :08:33.I say this, I am naturally a Eurosceptic but Iraq's nice that
:08:34. > :08:40.there is integrity in this quarrel. This is not just about them and us,
:08:41. > :08:43.the atmosphere in Parliament this week for those who are sceptics,
:08:44. > :08:46.there is still a lot of uncertainty and that is the point. There is
:08:47. > :08:50.uncertainty in all of this, we can stand still, and hope that things
:08:51. > :08:54.get better in a failing Europe and a failing process or we can take that
:08:55. > :08:58.step and say let us try and change things and there will always be
:08:59. > :09:01.uncertainties but I believe that if we pull out of Europe we will get a
:09:02. > :09:05.better deal, we will be able to negotiate a better deal, take charge
:09:06. > :09:13.of our own affairs for the first time in a generation. You saying
:09:14. > :09:17.there would be less uncertainty by leaving the EU? Look at the deal
:09:18. > :09:21.that David Cameron brought back. At least Neville Chamberlain had the
:09:22. > :09:25.decency to bring paper with him. Mr Cameron has brought back nothing.
:09:26. > :09:30.For example, he cannot give us any facts on what will happen to
:09:31. > :09:35.immigration, he cannot give us any facts in terms of what will happen
:09:36. > :09:41.regarding the payment of benefits. He cannot... I know this that for
:09:42. > :09:45.every pound that we get back from Europe, we have to give ?1 58 and
:09:46. > :09:48.the businessmen in this debate would not go in for a daylight that, why
:09:49. > :09:53.should the ordinary public have their money taken from them. You
:09:54. > :09:59.have criticised the EU in the past but you think the right choice is
:10:00. > :10:03.for the UK to stay in the EU? Ian Paisley has given reasons why he
:10:04. > :10:09.disagrees, why do think you are right and he is wrong? Business,
:10:10. > :10:12.particularly in my sector, agri- foods, it is really concerned about
:10:13. > :10:16.the significant downsides of leaving. They are worried about
:10:17. > :10:19.market disruption, they are worried about the uncertainty, they are
:10:20. > :10:24.worried about the loss of subsidies to farmers. When you add all those
:10:25. > :10:32.things up, those downsides are not matched by any certainty of what we
:10:33. > :10:34.would get in terms of leaving and the benefits. The benefits are I
:10:35. > :10:38.suppose paraded, but they are not absolute, they are what might be.
:10:39. > :10:43.You're not sure about what the scenario might be if the UK remains
:10:44. > :10:46.in the EU and that is the point of Ian Paisley. Your side of the
:10:47. > :10:53.argument is critical of the absence of facts but you do not have so many
:10:54. > :10:58.facts either. In agri- foods, there is ?2.5 billion of subsidies,
:10:59. > :11:03.locally to our farmers. As a business, in Dale Farm, we export to
:11:04. > :11:07.40 companies worldwide, we have access to 500 million people in the
:11:08. > :11:11.European market with no tariff barriers, single market with
:11:12. > :11:16.arrangements and we have trade arrangements with the EU in many
:11:17. > :11:21.other countries worldwide. If we left the EU, what trade arrangements
:11:22. > :11:24.are there? It would take years to recreate the arrangements we have,
:11:25. > :11:27.years to create some of the legislation we have and I do not
:11:28. > :11:31.think the people you're talking about leaving and worked out the
:11:32. > :11:35.logistics and the sheer amount of work replacing what we have got. We
:11:36. > :11:40.have taken evidence on this point because David said he is concerned,
:11:41. > :11:47.I am concerned about them as someone who has a large agri- foods business
:11:48. > :11:51.in my constituency, his business is in my constituency but the evidence
:11:52. > :11:55.we have received from the likes of Graham Gudgin, there was subsidy
:11:56. > :11:59.before we entered Europe for farms and will be subsidy if we exit
:12:00. > :12:03.Europe. Countries currently in Europe but not in the EU have their
:12:04. > :12:07.own farm subsidy programme which is more generous than that in the EU.
:12:08. > :12:13.We will have sufficient money because we are already putting in
:12:14. > :12:19.more money than we are getting out. I want to bring in our other test,
:12:20. > :12:23.Erwin Armstrong, your business is in North arm -- North Antrim. Would you
:12:24. > :12:31.be in a better situation from a business perspective taking that
:12:32. > :12:36.leap in the dark -- Irwin Armstrong? I think we have to look at the whole
:12:37. > :12:41.debate. One is within Northern Ireland and how it impacts on
:12:42. > :12:44.Northern Ireland and the whole UK and I think people are missing the
:12:45. > :12:48.fact as to how much impact the European Union has on what we do in
:12:49. > :12:52.Northern Ireland. At the moment I and many others and politicians
:12:53. > :12:58.worked for a long time to get a reduction incorporation tax, to get
:12:59. > :13:02.that, we had to come up with best estimates, ?250 million a year, the
:13:03. > :13:10.first five years was ?1.25 billion, it is coming out of the Northern
:13:11. > :13:13.Ireland budget to pay for that. That would automatically be released into
:13:14. > :13:15.the Northern Ireland economy to do other things with. The second thing,
:13:16. > :13:20.having gotten that reduction, our local Parliament does not have any
:13:21. > :13:25.control over what grants invest NI can give, that is dictated from
:13:26. > :13:31.Europe. Two years ago, they were restricted heavily in what they
:13:32. > :13:42.could give out -- 39-macro. What about the obstacles put in your way
:13:43. > :13:49.if the UK exits the European Union? -- Invest NI. It would make that
:13:50. > :13:57.difficult for us to trade. That is ridiculous. Why? About 20% of the
:13:58. > :14:02.exports from the 27, I cannot see the 27 given up 20% of their exports
:14:03. > :14:08.and that includes the South of Ireland. An imbalance of 85 billion
:14:09. > :14:16.a year, we import 85 billion more than we export to the 27. It is an
:14:17. > :14:21.absolute nonsense to suggest that the European Union, people like
:14:22. > :14:25.Mercedes, Volkswagen, BMW, the car companies, the cheese companies, the
:14:26. > :14:31.wine companies, will give up the UK market.
:14:32. > :14:38.So are they talking rubbish when they say they want to think long and
:14:39. > :14:41.hard about it? Part of my job is to forecast forward and we look at the
:14:42. > :14:45.information that is available and we say, what is the rational and
:14:46. > :14:48.sensible thing for everyone to do? If you are telling me that the
:14:49. > :14:52.people within Europe are not sensible and rational, I do not
:14:53. > :14:56.accept that as a proposition. Bill Wolsey, you do not look as if you
:14:57. > :15:03.are persuaded by what Irwin Armstrong is saying. You have been
:15:04. > :15:06.shaking your head. I am not because quite often the rhetoric does not
:15:07. > :15:14.match the reality. I would question the figures there. Over 50% of our
:15:15. > :15:20.exports are to the EU but they only take 10% from us and the onus on us
:15:21. > :15:25.is to stay where we have at least a degree of certainty, to stay within
:15:26. > :15:27.an organisation that we all recognise is not a brilliant
:15:28. > :15:35.organisation and there are problems within it but to get a change within
:15:36. > :15:39.the organisation you have to there. If we leave it is just living in the
:15:40. > :15:42.world of fantasy to think that the EU will put out the hand of
:15:43. > :15:47.friendship to us and not put difficult tariffs in our way, that
:15:48. > :15:52.is nonsense. In the 1950s when we missed the boat and we eventually
:15:53. > :15:57.joined the EU, the EU did not give us terms that were entirely
:15:58. > :16:02.welcoming, they made things difficult for us and they will do
:16:03. > :16:07.exactly the same if we leave. How do you respond to that? The argument
:16:08. > :16:11.very often is but that the UK exits the EU there will be a lot of
:16:12. > :16:15.tariffs and trade barriers put in place. We will still have to live
:16:16. > :16:19.within a lot of the European rules and regulations but we will not be
:16:20. > :16:23.part of the decision-making process. The balances the other way around.
:16:24. > :16:31.Europe will come knocking on the door. Our trade is already going the
:16:32. > :16:36.other way, for example. In the last four years UK exports have increased
:16:37. > :16:41.40% of countries outside of the EU. They have grown only 28% the other
:16:42. > :16:44.way. We're actually benefiting from trade outside the rest of the EU and
:16:45. > :16:50.we should continue with that trade. At the end of the day this will be a
:16:51. > :16:53.judgment call. The public out there will have to make a judgment call on
:16:54. > :16:58.what they feeling better and what I think is important in this debate is
:16:59. > :17:04.that it is driven by the facts. It is very difficult to get at the
:17:05. > :17:07.facts. I think when you cut through some of the waffle on some of the
:17:08. > :17:12.talk goes around, there are very ordinary facts out there. Europe is
:17:13. > :17:16.broken, Europe has actually fail the ordinary men and women across Europe
:17:17. > :17:20.and failed to address the big issues of immigration and fails to address
:17:21. > :17:26.the big issues that have confronted your the last ten years and we have
:17:27. > :17:29.to think that it cannot be fixed internally, David Cameron has failed
:17:30. > :17:37.to fix it so let us get a better deal. Do you think your facts
:17:38. > :17:41.waffle? 46% of our exports from the UK go to Europe and 10% of their
:17:42. > :17:44.exports come to us. Europe is the single biggest trading partner and
:17:45. > :17:51.Germany is nearly as big as the US in taking products. If I take the
:17:52. > :17:54.Northern Ireland industry we have investors that we have brought in
:17:55. > :17:59.through Invest NI who have come here for access to the European market
:18:00. > :18:04.and we will at risk inward investment and exports and
:18:05. > :18:09.subsidies. The British government, I broke -- I wrote to a British
:18:10. > :18:12.minister last week for help but the response was they do not have the
:18:13. > :18:15.budget amid you want to help you. The help I've got in the past has
:18:16. > :18:19.been from Europe because I have relied on French and Irish farmers
:18:20. > :18:24.to represent the case of Northern Ireland farmers and Europe has been
:18:25. > :18:28.much more supportive of the agricultural sector. If that is the
:18:29. > :18:33.case, if these facts are correct, it means that businesses, which are
:18:34. > :18:39.succeeding at the moment, will be imperilled by a British exit from
:18:40. > :18:44.the EU. At the moment we pay ?9 billion every single year which we
:18:45. > :18:49.never get back on Matiz almost all of what Northern Ireland pays. That
:18:50. > :18:53.is the net contribution. We have the opportunity on balance of getting
:18:54. > :18:56.that back and a significant proportion of that would go into
:18:57. > :18:59.farm subsidy, there is no doubt about that. Also in the Barnett
:19:00. > :19:03.Formula, hundreds of millions of pounds of that money would come back
:19:04. > :19:12.to Northern Ireland and give us a net benefit if we pull out. Bill?
:19:13. > :19:20.Statistics, damn lies, everyone can quote statistics but the figures
:19:21. > :19:26.that I have read show that ?300 goes out of every household in the UK but
:19:27. > :19:31.the benefit to each household is ?3000 so you can argue that either
:19:32. > :19:35.way but I think that the farming industry I can't understand all
:19:36. > :19:39.tall, why they would be against leaving, considering the amount of
:19:40. > :19:41.subsidies they get but the move out from somewhere where released we
:19:42. > :19:44.understand the system and we are hopefully starting to move closer
:19:45. > :19:50.and move together and I would personally like to see the merging
:19:51. > :19:55.of nationalities and there are a host of reasons why we should stay.
:19:56. > :19:59.Can I ask you what you think about the community view from the farming
:20:00. > :20:04.community? A huge amount of money comes into agriculture from the EU
:20:05. > :20:08.every year and you know that farming is terribly important to the economy
:20:09. > :20:10.of North Antrim, I'm concerned about the detrimental impact that could
:20:11. > :20:16.have on your neighbours and your friends? I am concerned that the
:20:17. > :20:21.money in the benefit system that goes to farmers at the minute, I do
:20:22. > :20:25.not claim to be an expert but it seems to be linked to how many acres
:20:26. > :20:29.you have. It may be more complicated than that but that is basically how
:20:30. > :20:33.it works. That is not the sensible way to work with farmers. What the
:20:34. > :20:36.local government should be doing is aiding farmers with things to make
:20:37. > :20:40.them more profitable and more efficient and targeted at things we
:20:41. > :20:43.are good at in Northern Ireland and we are good at a lot of things in
:20:44. > :20:46.Northern Ireland and I think Dale farm is a good example of what you
:20:47. > :20:51.can do with experts around the world. If you target the money
:20:52. > :20:55.properly, once Europe has got its single farm payments, that they did
:20:56. > :21:01.away with and introduced a new system, it is not a sensible way to
:21:02. > :21:04.help farmers. You are obviously close to the agri- food sector and
:21:05. > :21:08.it is primarily what you do I do know how farmers think and what
:21:09. > :21:12.makes them tick. What you think of the Ulster farmers union position on
:21:13. > :21:19.the referendum, it says it wants a debate but it can see no compelling
:21:20. > :21:22.case to leave the EU at this point because it wants farmers to sue the
:21:23. > :21:29.facts as they are and make up their romance. Is that a sensible
:21:30. > :21:35.approach? I run a farming co-operative and I know this year
:21:36. > :21:41.that those farmers will heavily rely on in the current depressed market
:21:42. > :21:45.on the farm benefit. I know that I rely heavily on trade agreements in
:21:46. > :21:49.place and I know that the British government doesn't have the
:21:50. > :21:54.apparatus, doesn't have betrayed ability to recreate those quickly if
:21:55. > :21:58.we leave. Further to that, the single biggest cost this year is the
:21:59. > :22:02.linking -- the Living Wage, introduced by the Chancellor, an
:22:03. > :22:05.apprentice tax introduced by the Chancellor, to say that in some way
:22:06. > :22:10.the British government has a track record of giving largess and Europe
:22:11. > :22:14.hasn't is wrong. Europe has actually been a good regional supporter of
:22:15. > :22:21.development in Northern Ireland. How do you respond? To date there is no
:22:22. > :22:25.compelling argument made that agriculture would be better off
:22:26. > :22:37.outside the EU and those people need to rise to that challenge. The EU
:22:38. > :22:41.budget in UK terms accounts were 2% of the entire budget. It is hardly
:22:42. > :22:45.largess we are getting. We could get a better deal for farmers if we take
:22:46. > :22:49.grip of this situation and actually use the money that we are currently
:22:50. > :22:57.giving to Europe and never seeing again. Norway isn't in the EU and
:22:58. > :23:01.hast to pay a fairly significant amount of money to have access and
:23:02. > :23:04.it has to match most of the legislation in the EU so the idea
:23:05. > :23:10.that we will get all of our contribution back, that is the gross
:23:11. > :23:13.contribution but it is only 5 billion net and with all the
:23:14. > :23:17.benefits of market access, if someone said to anyone tomorrow you
:23:18. > :23:24.would have access to a market of 500 million people with no tariffs,
:23:25. > :23:28.would you walk from? That you want to be another world markets, your
:23:29. > :23:34.growth will not be in Europe, your growth is going to be in Russia and
:23:35. > :23:38.all of those countries. Other people need access to that and Europe is
:23:39. > :23:41.restricting you. I have pork farmers in my constituency with the best
:23:42. > :23:43.pork products in the world and they cannot get them to the biggest
:23:44. > :23:52.market in the world because of Europe and we want to see that sort
:23:53. > :23:54.of change taking place. In our industry, medical diagnostics, we
:23:55. > :23:59.see protectionism right across Europe. We are supposed to have
:24:00. > :24:02.pan-European legislation but we don't have pan-European legislation.
:24:03. > :24:06.We get a directive coming to each one of the countries and each
:24:07. > :24:10.country to implement the rules differently so as we go around
:24:11. > :24:15.Europe we have got to change and the protectionism in France, Italy,
:24:16. > :24:20.Spain, where our products can only be sold in pharmacies, here we can
:24:21. > :24:25.sell them anywhere, so don't tell me that the common market is equal for
:24:26. > :24:28.everybody, it is not. With the greatest respect you appear to be
:24:29. > :24:33.out of step with the business community. A recent survey found 81%
:24:34. > :24:41.would vote for the EU -- would vote to stay in the EU. That was a 60
:24:42. > :24:45.people out of 60,000 in Northern Ireland. If you take that as a
:24:46. > :24:49.representative figure that is absolute nonsense. Even companies
:24:50. > :24:53.that do not export are still bound by every rule in the European Union
:24:54. > :24:56.is no they are not selling to them. We have the best fishing harbours
:24:57. > :24:59.potentially in the world and who takes it? Spain. We should claim
:25:00. > :25:05.that harbours back and sell it ourselves. Leaving the EU is not
:25:06. > :25:13.going to improve any of the problems that you are raising. Really? Since
:25:14. > :25:17.the UK has been involved in the EU they have made a tremendous changes.
:25:18. > :25:22.They have made changes over the period. We joined and paid a huge
:25:23. > :25:25.amount and we were a mess with the fisheries and agriculture policy and
:25:26. > :25:30.over the years Britain has had a voice in changing that. I had the
:25:31. > :25:33.point you made about Norway, you quite often hear Switzerland
:25:34. > :25:38.mentioned, they're both trade within the EU and they both have to abide
:25:39. > :25:44.by the rules of the EU and they both have to abide by the labour laws of
:25:45. > :25:47.the EU. What would it mean for you? You run hotels and public houses
:25:48. > :25:53.across Northern Ireland in a big business, what impact would Brexit
:25:54. > :25:58.have on your operation? Well, probably to start with very little
:25:59. > :26:02.because all of the people that are from outside Northern Ireland, who
:26:03. > :26:08.work for me presumably would be allowed to stay but going forward
:26:09. > :26:11.any complications there are two travel and orders would obviously
:26:12. > :26:17.have a detrimental effect on the tourism industry and we have a very
:26:18. > :26:27.vibrant tourism industry in Ireland. Every business complains about red
:26:28. > :26:31.tape. I was in a factory the other day... Australia, Canada and the
:26:32. > :26:36.United States have more regulation than we have. It is just a nonsense
:26:37. > :26:42.that people throw up about red tape and regulations. You know that is
:26:43. > :26:46.not true! We are one of the least regulated countries in Europe. It is
:26:47. > :26:50.certainly not true in the case of the UK -- the US. The regulation we
:26:51. > :26:55.come up against in the US is much less than the regulation here. The
:26:56. > :26:59.specific regulation for our industry, as I mentioned earlier,
:27:00. > :27:04.the 27 all different. We register one product with the FTA we can go
:27:05. > :27:08.50 states. A lot of people watching this I
:27:09. > :27:12.suspect will be scratching their heads because they hear what purport
:27:13. > :27:15.to be facts from both sides of the debate and you can understand people
:27:16. > :27:20.frankly not knowing what they are doing at the moment, four months out
:27:21. > :27:24.from the boat. It is quite simple. In business you want certainty and
:27:25. > :27:29.stability. You wouldn't put yourself into a known situation unless you
:27:30. > :27:33.had scoped it pretty well. There are all kinds of things that you might
:27:34. > :27:37.get money back and create new trade deals but they are or might send no
:27:38. > :27:40.certainty. What we have is the devil we know. It definitely needs to
:27:41. > :27:47.change and the need to get in there and Cameron needs to negotiate and
:27:48. > :27:50.our government needs to negotiate. They have failed totally. There are
:27:51. > :27:56.now a number of EU states who will back Britain in reform. Ian, your
:27:57. > :27:59.party is campaigning to leave but your party leader made the point
:28:00. > :28:04.that she can understand why members of your party will want to stay. I
:28:05. > :28:10.recognise that and there is going to be individual views on this. I am
:28:11. > :28:13.probably fairly close to most of the people around this table tonight and
:28:14. > :28:17.we'll have distinct views on that and I think that reflects Northern
:28:18. > :28:18.Ireland. It does, and it gives us plenty to talk about in the next
:28:19. > :28:20.four months. Now, voters across the Republic
:28:21. > :28:24.will be heading to the polling stations tomorrow for an election
:28:25. > :28:26.that could fundamentally Pundits have been talking up
:28:27. > :28:29.all kinds of possible coalition outcomes over the course
:28:30. > :28:31.of the campaign. Earlier this week, the leaders
:28:32. > :28:43.of the four main parties So, our plan is to create 200,000
:28:44. > :28:49.jobs by 2020, reduce taxes, employ more people and use the benefits of
:28:50. > :28:53.that to create further employment in the public service. Except, of
:28:54. > :28:59.course, that many people have not felt the recovery. You were one of
:29:00. > :29:03.the full-time drivers on that Fianna Fail bus that drove this country
:29:04. > :29:07.over a cliff. Your premise is wrong. We had a banking enquiry that did
:29:08. > :29:12.not come to this conclusion. We are going to roll back all of those
:29:13. > :29:16.miserable little mean spirited cuts that make life so miserable for
:29:17. > :29:19.people. We are going to end prescription charges and make sure
:29:20. > :29:22.that people who go to a indeed do not have to pay and make sure that
:29:23. > :29:27.people who go to GPs do not have to pay full it. The workers have a
:29:28. > :29:30.little bit more money in terms of their take-home pay and they are
:29:31. > :29:35.going to have more confidence in being able to spend and we will
:29:36. > :29:38.actually get more than that back in terms of growth and in terms of jobs
:29:39. > :29:46.in the economy. The three-week campaign has now
:29:47. > :29:49.ended, and to get an idea of how it's all gone, I'm joined
:29:50. > :29:52.from Dublin by Stephen Collins, the Political Editor
:29:53. > :29:58.of the Irish Times A short sharp campaign that has not
:29:59. > :30:04.gone as many people expected. It has not gone the way the government
:30:05. > :30:10.expected. They call the election and expected they will increase support.
:30:11. > :30:15.That has not happened to 29-macro. They have held their own but not put
:30:16. > :30:21.on the extra support it needs to be back with the majority while the
:30:22. > :30:26.Labour Party has trundled along -- Fianna Fail. They are just short of
:30:27. > :30:31.what is required. The big hope on the government side is that there
:30:32. > :30:35.will be a surge. They are stressing stability and taking a risk if you
:30:36. > :30:39.do not vote for the government parties. Fianna Fail, they have had
:30:40. > :30:43.a good campaign. They were almost wiped out in the last election but
:30:44. > :30:49.Michael Martin has done well. Not so well in the last debate, but Fianna
:30:50. > :30:53.Fail will make gains. Sinn Fein have slipped back. They always drop back
:30:54. > :30:54.from their poll ratings as the election approaches, this time it
:30:55. > :31:13.has been more rapid than expected. Gerry Adams has not
:31:14. > :31:16.performed well in the debates and has been bad on figures and the
:31:17. > :31:19.economy and has been hit with issues about the past of the IRA. The
:31:20. > :31:22.Labour leader has not done well. Her record in government has come in for
:31:23. > :31:24.criticism and she only performed in the last debate. Mixed reviews for
:31:25. > :31:27.the parties, but it is wide open as we come up to voting tomorrow. It is
:31:28. > :31:33.an intriguing situation. All kinds of possible Coalition scenarios seem
:31:34. > :31:40.to be in the mix at the moment. All sorts of options have been talked
:31:41. > :31:42.about. The most obvious one is that the Chamber of Commerce Labour
:31:43. > :31:53.government will return. That is one option.
:31:54. > :31:57.-- Fine Gael. Fianna Fail could go into government with Fine Gael but
:31:58. > :32:03.that has been rejected by both parties because senior people in
:32:04. > :32:07.both parties say privately that if they go in together Sinn Fein will
:32:08. > :32:10.be the opposition and they will take over in five years' time. I do not
:32:11. > :32:14.think that will happen but the parties may have to come to an
:32:15. > :32:18.arrangement and I would not be surprised if Fine Gael and Labour do
:32:19. > :32:22.not have the numbers and Fianna Fail might agree for a period to support
:32:23. > :32:28.a Fine Gael minority government on certain conditions and they will
:32:29. > :32:31.have to decide what they are. We could be into an uncertain scenario
:32:32. > :32:33.and I think it is that possibility of uncertainty that might cause a
:32:34. > :32:37.last-minute swing back to the government parties and they are
:32:38. > :32:41.hoping that what will happen will be like the UK election last year when
:32:42. > :32:44.the polls showed the Tories and Labour neck and neck but when it
:32:45. > :32:49.came to voting, the Tories pulled ahead. We will have to wait and we
:32:50. > :32:54.will know on Saturday how it pans out. That is all intriguing.
:32:55. > :32:58.Everything you said is fascinating, what is interesting is that could be
:32:59. > :33:02.a rump of smaller parties and independents and depending how that
:33:03. > :33:08.goes back and make for interesting times. That is the other big issue.
:33:09. > :33:16.I did not talk about the independents. The expectation before
:33:17. > :33:19.the election was called was that this number would drop rapidly as
:33:20. > :33:22.people focused on who his was good for the government but according to
:33:23. > :33:26.the polls it has not. I think we are set for a record number of
:33:27. > :33:34.independence, we have of riding of smaller parties, some of them are
:33:35. > :33:36.hard left and some are straightforward independence, some
:33:37. > :33:42.are more Conservative and independent, we have a whole range
:33:43. > :33:46.of things and in Kerry we have the remarkable family, Jackie was a TD
:33:47. > :33:51.for years and was succeeded by his son at the last election but his
:33:52. > :33:55.brother is now running as his running mate and there is an
:33:56. > :33:59.expectation that they will take two seat and a loser could be the Sinn
:34:00. > :34:02.Fein candidate and that is another problem that they have, they are
:34:03. > :34:07.competing with the smaller parties and independents and they seem to
:34:08. > :34:09.BET then to the protest vote that Sinn Fein was relying on. We will
:34:10. > :34:11.leave it there. And let's hear what tonight's
:34:12. > :34:12.commentators make of Dawn Purvis and Chris
:34:13. > :34:24.Donnelly are here. Welcome to you both. Let us talk
:34:25. > :34:29.about the Brexit debate. You both take differing views on that
:34:30. > :34:33.subject. You have not made your mind up, you are leaning towards the
:34:34. > :34:38.leave camp. There was more confusion than anything else tonight and more
:34:39. > :34:45.questions. I think part of the whole debate that has started around
:34:46. > :34:51.Brexit is not clear. I think that the more I listen to politicians who
:34:52. > :34:54.are wavering about their own decisions and not being clear and
:34:55. > :35:00.not giving clear instructions to their voters is unhelpful. I suppose
:35:01. > :35:08.some of the stuff that I listen to there from David Dobbin was more
:35:09. > :35:14.convincing than listening to Irwin Armstrong and Ian Paisley. I am
:35:15. > :35:18.still not convinced to leave or stay in, I am not convinced by either
:35:19. > :35:22.camp. One of the interesting features of this, if you look at who
:35:23. > :35:25.is standing in the corners, it is a rematch of the Good Friday
:35:26. > :35:28.Agreement. You have all of nationalist Ireland, cheered on by
:35:29. > :35:32.all the parties in the south on one side and the British Government and
:35:33. > :35:36.the liberal centre here, the Alliance Party and if we listen to
:35:37. > :35:40.what Mike Nesbitt and Danny Kinahan say, it looks like the UUP will also
:35:41. > :35:48.go for the option of staying which will leave the DUP and Jim Allister.
:35:49. > :35:54.That has left us, we have nervousness within the DUP because
:35:55. > :35:57.that puts them against certain groups in this society, we saw them
:35:58. > :36:00.represented today, the farming community and the business
:36:01. > :36:04.community, who the DUP would traditionally have a strong
:36:05. > :36:08.affiliation with, both of those groups will vote overwhelmingly to
:36:09. > :36:14.stay, because it is too much of a leap into the unknown. It is hard to
:36:15. > :36:19.separate fact from opinion. I'm hearing people say that the EU has
:36:20. > :36:23.been a failure. They are not spelling out how it has been a
:36:24. > :36:28.failure. I hear people saying that Northern Ireland will benefit more
:36:29. > :36:32.from being outside the EU but it is all hypothetical. Tell me how
:36:33. > :36:36.Northern Ireland benefits from being in the EU and tell me what the
:36:37. > :36:41.change will be if we leave. None of that is coming across in any of the
:36:42. > :36:48.debates or discussions. I think the politicians taking a stance need to
:36:49. > :36:51.be interrogated on what view they have and how they are directing
:36:52. > :36:55.their voters. I did not hear any of that. There is a lot of speculation,
:36:56. > :37:01.we know David Cameron is coming, do you think he will swing the debate?
:37:02. > :37:05.Not here. We listen to her own political parties. David Cameron was
:37:06. > :37:08.aligning himself with BST OP and Sinn Fein, I think the Ulster
:37:09. > :37:12.Unionist and we heard Mike Nesbitt say that he was going to wait on the
:37:13. > :37:15.Prime Minister coming here, in the background he is trying to get a
:37:16. > :37:21.uniform voice within the Austrians party because he sees an opportunity
:37:22. > :37:31.there for them to court are ground. -- UUP. What do you make of how that
:37:32. > :37:36.are shaping up? Interesting for me is the selection convention for Sinn
:37:37. > :37:41.Fein playing out in public, something he would not have seen
:37:42. > :37:44.long ago, also interesting that Michelle has given the interview
:37:45. > :37:46.representing the constituency. There is a risk for Sinn Fein. That is an
:37:47. > :37:47.intriguing situation. Do join me for a special election
:37:48. > :37:52.results edition of Sunday Politics, That's on Sunday morning,
:37:53. > :37:56.starting at 11 o'clock on BBC One. And we'll be expecting some sharply
:37:57. > :37:58.dressed politicos to join us now that David Cameron has
:37:59. > :38:40.thrown down the gauntlet. The Speaker is well aware of the
:38:41. > :38:49.dress code and how rigorous I am about ensuring that applies to all
:38:50. > :38:52.members. We had to take him out and get a tie and then he wore that
:38:53. > :38:54.bloody jacket for about six years!