:00:00. > :00:00.counting will have begun in the EU referendum.
:00:00. > :00:08.Tonight, we hear from two big beasts of the political world -
:00:09. > :00:11.one a prominent leading figure on the national stage,
:00:12. > :00:37.as Alan Johnson tackles Sammy Wilson on Brexit.
:00:38. > :00:40.They're at polar opposites in the debate on Europe,
:00:41. > :00:43.but both agree the EU referendum in June will be a crucial vote.
:00:44. > :00:46.Alan Johnson and Sammy Wilson spar over the details
:00:47. > :00:52.on Northern Ireland's future in or out of Europe.
:00:53. > :01:02.Here are the facts about whether its 13 million or 10 million, we made a
:01:03. > :01:09.net contribution to the EU and that is... Not in Northern Ireland. The
:01:10. > :01:11.UK as a whole makes that contribution.
:01:12. > :01:13.The conviction of a woman for taking abortion pills
:01:14. > :01:15.has thrown that divisive issue back into the headlines.
:01:16. > :01:17.I'll be asking experts with differing viewpoints
:01:18. > :01:18.how our political leaders should tackle the moral
:01:19. > :01:22.Plus - why are some businesses here less efficient
:01:23. > :01:24.than their competitors, and would the planned cut
:01:25. > :01:35.Firms that are generating high levels of profit, paying high wages,
:01:36. > :01:36.and those firms are driving up the overall productivity for the
:01:37. > :01:37.economy. And looking to improve
:01:38. > :01:39.their productivity over in Commentators' Corner
:01:40. > :01:43.are Alex Kane and Paul McFadden. It's been a week of putting up
:01:44. > :01:46.posters, launching manifestos and unveiling candidates
:01:47. > :01:49.for the Assembly election in May. But just in case we'd forgotten
:01:50. > :01:52.about the European Referendum, the Labour Party today sent in one
:01:53. > :01:56.of its biggest hitters, Alan Johnson, to promote
:01:57. > :01:58.the benefits of Northern Ireland And he took the opportunity
:01:59. > :02:04.to accuse the Secretary of State of putting Northern Ireland's
:02:05. > :02:06.political progress at risk by campaigning
:02:07. > :02:09.for Britain to leave Europe. Theresa Villiers has called
:02:10. > :02:12.the comments irresponsible. The DUP's Sammy Wilson,
:02:13. > :02:13.who supports Brexit, joined Mr Johnson in the studio
:02:14. > :02:16.earlier to debate the issue. I began by asking Alan Johnson
:02:17. > :02:19.why he took a swipe at the Secretary of State's
:02:20. > :02:32.position? I think that it's a very, very
:02:33. > :02:35.dangerous argument to suggest that Northern Ireland wouldn't be
:02:36. > :02:41.affected at all, everything would be fine, we could just leave the
:02:42. > :02:45.European Union and carry on. To say that leaving the EU is going to have
:02:46. > :02:49.an impact on the peace process, any casual observer of the situation in
:02:50. > :02:53.Northern Ireland knows that people weren't blowing up this place
:02:54. > :02:57.because they wanted us to remain members of the EU. We were blowing
:02:58. > :03:01.it up because there were terrorists who wanted us out of the UK.
:03:02. > :03:06.Ironically, they have now taken the side of the British government in
:03:07. > :03:12.wanting to keep us in the EU. Even the economic arguments put forward,
:03:13. > :03:16.there's substance to those either. It is only the substance of the
:03:17. > :03:22.governor of the Bank of England. The things we would depend on the
:03:23. > :03:26.kindness of strangers. Because our current account deficit is such that
:03:27. > :03:29.if we left the European Union, he says the value of the pound would
:03:30. > :03:33.fall. He says the governor of the Bank of England says that there
:03:34. > :03:39.would be ramifications for our economy. I'm not saying that the...
:03:40. > :03:43.Of course you are quite right about what was happening. I'm saying that
:03:44. > :03:47.the European Union made a contribution to Northern Ireland
:03:48. > :03:50.coming out of those days to the extent now of ?100 million, which to
:03:51. > :03:58.ease a Villiers is saying we will give them the Treasury. Here are the
:03:59. > :04:04.facts. Whether its 13 billion or 10 billion, we make a net contribution
:04:05. > :04:12.to the EU. Not in Northern Ireland. The UK as a whole makes a
:04:13. > :04:18.contribution. We are now no longer net beneficiary, it evens out. When
:04:19. > :04:23.did that change? The second thing is that the future and what would
:04:24. > :04:26.happen to the economy outside the European Union, the Institute of
:04:27. > :04:33.economic affairs has said that GDP could grow by 13% and that has been
:04:34. > :04:36.certified by the independent body, the Office for Budget
:04:37. > :04:42.Responsibility. You quote the Bank of England, I quote the OBR and the
:04:43. > :04:46.Institute of economic affairs. Northern Ireland is a net
:04:47. > :04:50.beneficiary, you are absolutely clear about that? Jelly macro yes. I
:04:51. > :04:58.don't know where he's got above you. The last figures I saw... If you
:04:59. > :05:01.look at the research paper done by the House of Commons which indicates
:05:02. > :05:06.that because of the four in peace money and money to the CHP over the
:05:07. > :05:14.last couple of years, where we were as net beneficiaries has evened out
:05:15. > :05:22.and over the next five years as piece money goes down and subsidies
:05:23. > :05:26.for farming goes down, we will... The farmers are desperate to stay in
:05:27. > :05:30.the European Union, I met them. Are you saying they have made no
:05:31. > :05:35.contribution to the European Union? I am saying the European Union has
:05:36. > :05:39.taken UK money and we spent it in Northern Ireland. That could just as
:05:40. > :05:41.easily have been spent by the Northern Ireland government, or the
:05:42. > :05:44.government in Westminster. We would have been able to do that
:05:45. > :05:49.unencumbered by the priorities which Europe sets. And make it on the
:05:50. > :05:56.basis of the priorities which we would have set. Where is the
:05:57. > :06:00.guarantee that if that money wasn't spent as a net contribution by the
:06:01. > :06:07.UK Government, it would come back to Northern Ireland? Any money spent by
:06:08. > :06:12.the UK Government is subject to the Barnett Formula. We automatically
:06:13. > :06:19.get our 3%. It is on public record that the amount of money we get from
:06:20. > :06:27.peace has fallen from peace 12 piece for by about 50% over that period.
:06:28. > :06:34.-- piece 1- piece four. We are less of a beneficiary from that. As far
:06:35. > :06:40.as CAP is concerned, CAP has fallen by 35% in the last five years. As
:06:41. > :06:42.the EU orientate 's Common agricultural policy more towards
:06:43. > :06:49.Eastern Europe and towards environmental issues, the amount of
:06:50. > :06:55.money we get in Northern Ireland will fall as well. You started this
:06:56. > :07:01.conversation saying we are no longer a net beneficiary. You have said
:07:02. > :07:04.it's falling. It has already fallen. Just to be clear, we are now no
:07:05. > :07:18.longer in Northern Ireland a net and a fishery. Is that correct? It is
:07:19. > :07:25.even now. -- a net beneficiary. I was talking to the manager of the
:07:26. > :07:28.Titanic project this afternoon. He is desperately worried about visitor
:07:29. > :07:34.numbers about they get. Exporters were desperately worried. The guy I
:07:35. > :07:39.spoke to at a factory that makes packaging said before the single
:07:40. > :07:44.market, he used to have to have rings of papers for his drivers to
:07:45. > :07:50.take stuff to Austria or Poland. Now they just need one piece of paper.
:07:51. > :07:54.The fact we are exporting, but you export so much to the European
:07:55. > :07:59.Union, far higher than the 50% average across the UK, must mean,
:08:00. > :08:05.Sammy, that you are running a huge risk. You're not telling me and
:08:06. > :08:09.you're not telling the viewers tonight but people visit Northern
:08:10. > :08:13.Ireland because we are part of the EU. Tourists come to Northern
:08:14. > :08:18.Ireland because we have a tourist offer. They come from America,
:08:19. > :08:22.China, all over the world, and EU countries not because we are members
:08:23. > :08:26.of the EU but because we have upped our game as far as the tourism
:08:27. > :08:30.industry is concerned and we have attractions we want to see.
:08:31. > :08:32.Membership of the EU is not going to make any difference as to whether or
:08:33. > :08:37.not the tourist industry is affected. But the issue of free
:08:38. > :08:42.movement is not just about the free movement of people to work, it is
:08:43. > :08:46.free movement per se. In the days before the EU in a single market you
:08:47. > :08:51.need visas to go on holiday to Spain. There is at least the
:08:52. > :08:56.prospect of that returning. What I can't work out is what kind of
:08:57. > :09:03.vision due you want for Britain, for the United Kingdom? In isolation.
:09:04. > :09:07.One of the reasons we have turned our back on some of the most
:09:08. > :09:13.expanding markets in the world, Australia and, New Zealand, India,
:09:14. > :09:16.is because when we joined the EU we had to break trade relations with
:09:17. > :09:21.those countries because we had to give preference. We had to exclude
:09:22. > :09:27.free trade with many Commonwealth countries. We could reopen that if
:09:28. > :09:31.we were free. Commonwealth countries say stay in the European Union.
:09:32. > :09:41.Prime Minister Monty came across India and said please stay. -- Prime
:09:42. > :09:45.Minister Mondi. Germany exports to India and has no colonial links with
:09:46. > :09:49.them. David Cameron said that one of the dangers of leaving the EU was
:09:50. > :09:54.but it would be a leap into the dark. On this programme back in
:09:55. > :10:07.February, Alistair Hamilton, the Chief Executive of investors and I
:10:08. > :10:16.raised a number of issues. -- of Invest NI. He said 60% of foreign --
:10:17. > :10:21.exports to foreign markets. Foreign direct investment, we pitch and off
:10:22. > :10:24.access. What happens if we leave the European market. The funding we get
:10:25. > :10:28.from Europe goes to things like Bombardier. Will we get the same
:10:29. > :10:36.distribution in future? Those are all serious issues. You don't really
:10:37. > :10:43.have solid answers to those questions. I do, and that's take
:10:44. > :10:48.each one in turn. On trade, since the European Union sells to the
:10:49. > :10:53.United Kingdom ?290 billion worth of goods and services every year and
:10:54. > :10:58.has a trade surplus with us of ?85 billion per year, whose interest is
:10:59. > :11:05.it in to keep that trade arrangement going? It is more in the interest in
:11:06. > :11:10.the countries in the EU. Those are facts, Alan. There are millions of
:11:11. > :11:15.jobs in European Union countries that depend upon exporting freely to
:11:16. > :11:18.the United Kingdom. If they want to export freely to the United Kingdom
:11:19. > :11:23.than they have to give us access to the market as well. As far as
:11:24. > :11:27.investment is concerned. A Prime Minister tried this one in the House
:11:28. > :11:32.of Commons the other week. Shortly after he had said it, the Chancellor
:11:33. > :11:36.got up and said that between the announcement of the referendum and
:11:37. > :11:40.the announcement of the budget, as a result of increased investment in
:11:41. > :11:45.the United Kingdom, 150,000 additional jobs which have not been
:11:46. > :11:48.expected have been created in the United Kingdom. There are again
:11:49. > :11:53.we've seen that didn't scare away international investment. Isn't it
:11:54. > :11:57.the point that those of you who want United Kingdom to remain in the EU
:11:58. > :12:07.are at least possibly responsible for overplaying the nightmare
:12:08. > :12:17.scenario if we left? If you took Graham Gudgeon, whose view is that
:12:18. > :12:22.the impact to be pretty small within the margin of error. Here's very
:12:23. > :12:29.respected economist. So is the governor of the Bank of England. The
:12:30. > :12:33.economic clouds are gathering. Even without the referendum, we are not
:12:34. > :12:36.out of our problems economically. To turn our back on the biggest
:12:37. > :12:42.commercial market in the world where we can export without any tariffs
:12:43. > :12:47.whatsoever, we used to pay 37% on ceramics, 14% on cars, that's why
:12:48. > :12:52.the inward direct investment is coming here. For us to turn our
:12:53. > :12:56.backs, for what reason? You have said more passion is needed in the
:12:57. > :13:02.remaining campaign. Labour supporters need to put boots on the
:13:03. > :13:06.ground. Quite a bit of passion tonight. That is not necessarily a
:13:07. > :13:09.bad thing. I have two putted to you that Labour members in Northern
:13:10. > :13:12.Ireland might not be inclined make that case because your national
:13:13. > :13:18.executive Wightman candidates here. We are now seeing Labour members
:13:19. > :13:19.handing on a ticket which is not a Liberal party ticket because they
:13:20. > :13:30.are not allowed to. I had just met Labour Party members,
:13:31. > :13:34.they understand the huge decision is the 23rd of June, it is a bigger
:13:35. > :13:38.decision than the General Election, the biggest political decision of my
:13:39. > :13:43.and labour in Northern Ireland is going to be a central part of our
:13:44. > :13:48.campaign. Does it matter to your members in this part of the world? I
:13:49. > :13:52.led the charge in CW for the Labour Party members to be recognised here
:13:53. > :13:55.but the issue about whether we stand candidates is something for after
:13:56. > :13:59.June the 23rd, we have all of our focus on winning the referendum. It
:14:00. > :14:04.is dreaming unlikely you will persuade Sammy about that. He hasn't
:14:05. > :14:07.even persuaded a lot of his own members, a lot of his own MPs, one
:14:08. > :14:14.of the reasons they are reticent about going out and campaigning is
:14:15. > :14:19.because they know it has been detrimental for the industry, which
:14:20. > :14:27.has been devastated in his own constituency. What devastated that?
:14:28. > :14:31.EU membership. Sammy, Sammy... You know in your heart of hearts that
:14:32. > :14:44.the EU has been bad for jobs and bad for industry. It finished in 73,
:14:45. > :14:51.wherefore we joined the EU, because Iceland put a limit around its
:14:52. > :14:56.coast. We have 232 Labour MPs, of whom seven are in the Leave camp. It
:14:57. > :14:59.was a unanimous decision at our conference. We are absolutely united
:15:00. > :15:01.on this. We will leave it there, thank you very much indeed.
:15:02. > :15:04.Coming up on The View - as the debate on abortion finds
:15:05. > :15:07.its way back into the spotlight, I'll be talking to two experts
:15:08. > :15:09.who take very different views on the subject.
:15:10. > :15:11.But first, while the number of people in work here is almost
:15:12. > :15:14.back to the level during the boom years, the long-standing problem
:15:15. > :15:16.of their productivity hangs over the economy.
:15:17. > :15:18.It's a measure of output per worker and while it
:15:19. > :15:20.remains in the doldrums, the wider economy
:15:21. > :15:23.can the Stormont Executive do about it?
:15:24. > :15:35.Here's our Business and Economics Editor, John Campbell.
:15:36. > :15:44.We have shared in what has become known as the UK's jobs miracle.
:15:45. > :15:49.Despite a deep recession and a weak recovery, our economy has continued
:15:50. > :15:54.to add jobs, lots of them. The trouble is that when we are at work,
:15:55. > :16:00.we are terribly unproductive. The UK produces less per hour than our main
:16:01. > :16:04.economic rivals and productivity has stagnated since the financial
:16:05. > :16:07.crisis. Northern Ireland's performance is even worse and on
:16:08. > :16:15.some measures, the gap with the UK is becoming wider. Here is where we
:16:16. > :16:20.stand. Let's say a typical German worker makes 126 widgets in a day. A
:16:21. > :16:25.typical UK worker can only make 115 of the same product in the same
:16:26. > :16:26.amount of time. But in Northern Ireland, that typical worker would
:16:27. > :16:29.only be able to make 100 widgets. This really matters,
:16:30. > :16:31.because a country's ability to raise its standards of living
:16:32. > :16:34.over time depends almost entirely on its
:16:35. > :16:36.ability to raise output per worker. if you show you were producing
:16:37. > :16:42.more this year Unless they raise their
:16:43. > :16:46.productivity, they will struggle to compete
:16:47. > :16:57.in global markets. So just why is our performance so
:16:58. > :17:05.pool for so long? Some of it is to do with the size of the economy, the
:17:06. > :17:08.size of businesses. Some of it is to do with how much capital or
:17:09. > :17:14.machinery we use. But a lot of it also seems to be to do with the
:17:15. > :17:19.skills of the labour force. So is it just a case that we don't produce
:17:20. > :17:22.enough high skilled employees? We can see this in two ways. Northern
:17:23. > :17:27.Ireland has a much higher proportion, about double the UK
:17:28. > :17:31.rate, of people on the workforce who have no qualifications at all. Also
:17:32. > :17:34.then, at the higher end of the labour force in terms of
:17:35. > :17:39.qualifications, whilst we have got many quality Magda Linette excellent
:17:40. > :17:43.qualifications, it is also true that we have gaps. -- many excellent
:17:44. > :17:46.qualifications. This pharmaceutical company is a model of a highly
:17:47. > :17:52.productive company. It employs lots of skilled staff making high-value
:17:53. > :17:57.products and it is constantly investing in new equipment and in
:17:58. > :18:01.research and development. We invest all of our own profits back into the
:18:02. > :18:05.business and that is principally in the areas of capital but also in
:18:06. > :18:09.development of solutions and our products and what we do and we need
:18:10. > :18:13.to make rapid elite meet the demands of the client all the time, we are
:18:14. > :18:21.trying to keep abreast of that -- we need to meet the demands. Typically,
:18:22. > :18:26.we would invest in our capabilities and we also add to our capacity when
:18:27. > :18:28.we need to. We will add to particular geographic regions if
:18:29. > :18:34.that seems to be a trend where some of the market is moving to. That all
:18:35. > :18:39.amounts to many millions of pounds a year. The problem is, we don't have
:18:40. > :18:43.enough firms like Almac, who have the capacity to make these levels of
:18:44. > :18:49.productivity boosting investment. And that is not the only issue.
:18:50. > :18:53.Colin Walsh has a record of backing high productivity technology firms.
:18:54. > :18:57.He says allowing time for innovation is important and so is leadership.
:18:58. > :19:03.It will take you a number of years to get to there. You just can't
:19:04. > :19:12.achieve those kind of returns if the product is still raw and taking too
:19:13. > :19:15.much work to customise and two perfect for each customer. The
:19:16. > :19:19.second thing that would be a big factor and it is probably related is
:19:20. > :19:27.management. If the management are experienced and are confident and
:19:28. > :19:32.know what they are doing in that particular segment, then that will
:19:33. > :19:35.make a big difference. Could the executive's flagship economic
:19:36. > :19:40.policy, the reduction in corporation Tax, make a difference? A forecast
:19:41. > :19:48.by economists at all is the university suggested could, boosting
:19:49. > :19:51.productivity by 4% over time. So how come the tax-cut have that effect?
:19:52. > :19:54.The primary mechanism is the new firms it will attract a Northern
:19:55. > :19:59.Ireland, firms that are generating high levels of profit, paying higher
:20:00. > :20:03.wages and in turn driving up the overall productivity for the
:20:04. > :20:09.economy. In 2007, the executive set of productivity target. Aiming to
:20:10. > :20:13.narrow the gap with the UK average by 2015. But as it became clear
:20:14. > :20:19.there was no chance of hitting the target, it was dropped, so should
:20:20. > :20:23.the next executive bring it back? They need to, in the next programme
:20:24. > :20:26.for government, have a target to raise productivity. There was no
:20:27. > :20:31.target in the previous programme for government, it got dropped relative
:20:32. > :20:36.to the one before that. Then ready to be realistic. This has been a
:20:37. > :20:40.problem that has existed for at least half a century, arguably a
:20:41. > :20:44.century, so it has been there a long time. It will not disappear over the
:20:45. > :20:49.course of one Assembly's mandate but at least let's begin. Measurement of
:20:50. > :20:52.productivity at a regional level is extraordinarily difficult and if you
:20:53. > :20:55.think of a regional Assembly, what the electorate care about, what we
:20:56. > :20:58.really should focus on is making sure we have jobs and good wages. If
:20:59. > :21:01.you have most people employed and they are well paid, you can be
:21:02. > :21:05.confident the productivity measurement is pretty strong as
:21:06. > :21:09.well, but targeting that can lead you down very. Roads in terms of
:21:10. > :21:13.your policy choices. Week productivity is affecting much of
:21:14. > :21:14.the developed world, so whatever the next executive decides to do, there
:21:15. > :21:19.are no easy answers. Northern Ireland's abortion laws
:21:20. > :21:22.were brought starkly into the spotlight earlier this week
:21:23. > :21:25.when a woman who bought drugs on the internet to induce
:21:26. > :21:27.a miscarriage was prosecuted and The 1967 Abortion Act doesn't apply
:21:28. > :21:32.here and abortion is only permitted Precious Life called the sentence
:21:33. > :21:40."very lenient", while Amnesty International said a woman who needs
:21:41. > :21:43.a termination should not be treated Mary Lewis is a legal
:21:44. > :21:46.adviser for Life NI, which supports women facing
:21:47. > :21:48.unexpected pregnancies, and Fiona Bloomer,
:21:49. > :21:51.from Ulster University, is a specialist researcher
:21:52. > :22:01.in abortion policy. You are both very welcome to the
:22:02. > :22:07.programme. Mary Lewis, do you think the prosecution in this case was in
:22:08. > :22:11.the public interest? Most certainly I do and I think the DPP took the
:22:12. > :22:15.correct decision in this particular instance. The evidence was quite
:22:16. > :22:20.overwhelming in relation to the case and secondly, then, of course, the
:22:21. > :22:25.judge found that of course there was a criminal conviction to be made and
:22:26. > :22:30.he then had to sentence and, as you know, he sentenced to three months
:22:31. > :22:35.imprisonment, suspended for two years. And you think it is right
:22:36. > :22:40.that the woman was criminalised? The way I look at it is the law is there
:22:41. > :22:43.as a protective measure and the 1861 Act not only protects the unborn
:22:44. > :22:47.child but is there to protect the woman as well and in those
:22:48. > :22:51.circumstances, there is a societal reason why we have the law. We have
:22:52. > :22:57.the law for all kinds of reasons. We have the law to keep society in a
:22:58. > :23:01.way which is protective for everyone and to allow for the freedoms of
:23:02. > :23:05.everyone insofar as they affect other people as well. But how was
:23:06. > :23:10.the woman in this case protected by getting a criminal conviction? The
:23:11. > :23:15.way I look at it is she was protected because the law is to
:23:16. > :23:22.protect her from procuring a miscarriage... She had already done
:23:23. > :23:25.that. The law is there as a deterrent and if you look at it from
:23:26. > :23:30.this point of view, in Great Britain today, there are four live births
:23:31. > :23:33.for every abortion. In Northern Ireland, if you look at all of the
:23:34. > :23:37.figures for abortions in Northern Ireland, there are 28th live births
:23:38. > :23:43.for everyone abortion, that includes illegal of oceans in Northern
:23:44. > :23:46.Ireland and -- illegal abortions in Northern Ireland and the ones that
:23:47. > :23:57.take place... What you read into that? That Northern Ireland values
:23:58. > :24:00.live and the people in question recognised the baby for what it was,
:24:01. > :24:04.they were able to recognise it as human, a baby boy. You can also read
:24:05. > :24:09.into figures simply that abortion is available across the water on demand
:24:10. > :24:18.but not here. Technically, abortion is not available on demand. 1967 act
:24:19. > :24:23.pertains in GB but not here. The 1861 legislation applies in England
:24:24. > :24:29.and Wales. The abortion act is the exception to that. Fiona Bloomer, do
:24:30. > :24:33.you believe that the prosecution could be justified in any
:24:34. > :24:37.circumstances in this particular case? Not in this particular case, I
:24:38. > :24:41.think what it flags up is the issue of class. If you are a middle-class
:24:42. > :24:45.woman living in Northern Ireland and you want an abortion, you can
:24:46. > :24:49.readily access it. You can find the funds to travel, you can find the
:24:50. > :24:54.funds to pay for the services of an abortion clinic. This woman wanted
:24:55. > :24:58.to travel and was not able to access the funds to do so and had she been
:24:59. > :25:02.able to travel, we wouldn't know anything about this case. But the
:25:03. > :25:05.reality is we all live under the same law, whether we are working
:25:06. > :25:10.class or middle-class, whether we have disposable income or whether we
:25:11. > :25:13.don't. You may argue that is right or wrong and that may be a factor in
:25:14. > :25:19.what happened here but it is the case that the law treats everybody
:25:20. > :25:25.the same. What do you make of Mary Lewis's basic point that this woman
:25:26. > :25:29.broke the law and it is right for her to be prosecuted, to act as a
:25:30. > :25:33.deterrent for others going down the same road? I don't agree with that
:25:34. > :25:39.point at all. The law in Northern Ireland is completely unfit for
:25:40. > :25:43.purpose, that has been very clear from recent judicial reviews. It is
:25:44. > :25:47.unfit for purpose. It is not complied with human rights
:25:48. > :25:51.legislation. The current status of abortion in Northern Ireland, we
:25:52. > :25:55.know there is an average of about 37 legal abortions that have happened
:25:56. > :26:00.in the last five years, on average over 1,000 women a year travel to
:26:01. > :26:06.England. I have to correct you there. The numbers are clear in the
:26:07. > :26:11.judgment, there were 800 abortions in the year in question of Northern
:26:12. > :26:16.Irish women who have abortions in England and Wales. We are talking
:26:17. > :26:21.about an average over a 10-year period. My research has looked
:26:22. > :26:27.trends over the last ten years. Let Fiona make the point. My research
:26:28. > :26:32.has looked at over a 10-year period and if you look at the trends, it is
:26:33. > :26:35.an average of 1007 women. Yes, numbers have been declining but over
:26:36. > :26:38.a 10-year period, that is the average. Other women are also
:26:39. > :26:43.thought to travel, for instance, to the Netherlands. We know from
:26:44. > :26:47.research in the south of Ireland that around 6% of those who travel
:26:48. > :26:51.for abortions actually travel to the Netherlands. We don't have compare
:26:52. > :26:56.above data for Northern Ireland. We also know numerous women are
:26:57. > :27:02.accessing the abortion... Realistically, most women who are
:27:03. > :27:06.having abortions outside norther Ireland are having done in England
:27:07. > :27:09.and Wales. You raise the issue of poverty but I go back to a more
:27:10. > :27:13.fundamental issue and that is humanity. You have to decide if you
:27:14. > :27:17.want abortion on demand or not. It seems to me that in the last number
:27:18. > :27:23.of months, we have a number of issues. The question of so-called,
:27:24. > :27:27.no Mike Phillips nonmedical term fatal fatal abnormality -- be
:27:28. > :27:31.nonmedical term. Then they say rape and incest should be an exception in
:27:32. > :27:37.the circumstances. Some people think that, a lot of people don't. The
:27:38. > :27:40.bottom line is if you are saying abortion in any circumstances is
:27:41. > :27:44.abortion on demand, you wouldn't need any law. So you have to ask
:27:45. > :27:48.yourself the question could you want to abolish law in all respects?
:27:49. > :27:52.There has to be some form of law for all things to regulate society. This
:27:53. > :27:55.is an interesting point would you believe there are substantial
:27:56. > :27:59.numbers of women who are accessing these drugs online or perhaps having
:28:00. > :28:05.them posted across from various groups in England and are accessing
:28:06. > :28:10.abortion, procuring miscarriages, abortion, whatever you want to call
:28:11. > :28:16.it, in Northern Ireland, that we simply don't know about?
:28:17. > :28:23.Dart organisations and they have said they have sent packages to
:28:24. > :28:32.Northern Ireland. They are not prepared to give any details. You
:28:33. > :28:35.don't know those figures? Some of the research is actually going to be
:28:36. > :28:40.published at a conference in June, and international conference
:28:41. > :28:45.happening in Belfast. Both providers are coming to the conference, both
:28:46. > :28:54.will be providing information on the starters of abortion health. We have
:28:55. > :29:03.some idea from an interview the other day, this case may be one way
:29:04. > :29:10.of stopping it in a sense because this case is possibly a deterrent.
:29:11. > :29:15.We don't know that. It has certainly highlighted the issue. You only have
:29:16. > :29:19.to listen to the lady who was interviewed in relation to being a
:29:20. > :29:25.housemate of this poor woman who had the misfortune to have taken the
:29:26. > :29:29.hills. She was horrified and the reason was mainly because she was
:29:30. > :29:35.face to face with the baby in the bin. And it was a baby boy. A lot of
:29:36. > :29:41.the time, the pro-choice people try to obliterate the reality of the
:29:42. > :29:49.situation, and say it is something we don't recognise as a baby. It is
:29:50. > :29:54.a baby. We need to face the reality. Even if you make abortion illegal,
:29:55. > :29:59.it's still occurs. If you look at worldwide trends, in countries where
:30:00. > :30:03.abortion is completely illegal, abortion is still happen. Even if
:30:04. > :30:07.you have restrictive laws, it does not stop it happening. If a woman is
:30:08. > :30:11.determined to have an abortion, she will jump through numerous hoops.
:30:12. > :30:14.What I'm curious to ask is where do you think the drive or evidence is
:30:15. > :30:21.that there is a view within the political mainstream but change is
:30:22. > :30:25.required, because clearly there are campaigners who believe change is
:30:26. > :30:29.required. There is evidence that the politicians, who ultimately make the
:30:30. > :30:33.decisions, believe that. If you look at the political discourse since the
:30:34. > :30:35.Northern Ireland assembly started, I just completed a study with a
:30:36. > :30:43.colleague which looks specifically at the political discourse since the
:30:44. > :30:47.Assembly started. We are looking at what the issues in those debates? It
:30:48. > :30:54.has moved from judging women about being selfish and myths about impact
:30:55. > :30:57.of abortion. What are the myths. Excuse me. Three to the more recent
:30:58. > :31:02.debates which have shown an acknowledgement of the complexity of
:31:03. > :31:09.reasons that leading woman to have an abortion. Is it not possible that
:31:10. > :31:14.some politicians who were perhaps as on terminations in certain cases
:31:15. > :31:21.have now been scared off into a debate that has shifted into a
:31:22. > :31:23.debate about abortion on demand? If you look at the change in the
:31:24. > :31:31.discourse from three years ago, for instance, to the current day, that
:31:32. > :31:34.is definitely a lot more MLAs. In the recent debate we were talking
:31:35. > :31:39.about the difficult decisions facing a woman if she has been diagnosed
:31:40. > :31:46.with fatal beetle abnormality. It's not a medical centre, but it's an
:31:47. > :31:51.umbrella term. It is widely recognised as an acceptable term to
:31:52. > :31:54.describe these conditions. The political discourse is moving on. I
:31:55. > :32:00.think they are recognising there's a nuance to the debate. Do you believe
:32:01. > :32:10.that the debate is moving on, are you concerned the ground is moving
:32:11. > :32:21.from under your feet? No. A few people were saying that this turn of
:32:22. > :32:28.fatal foetal abnormality has now become a bigger discussion. There
:32:29. > :32:35.has been High Court cases and the Russians. Do you think you are --
:32:36. > :32:38.discussions. There are a large number of people who support
:32:39. > :32:43.abortion but I strongly believe that whenever people faced with the
:32:44. > :32:51.education of what a baby is, at 12 weeks or 24 weeks they can be
:32:52. > :32:54.persuaded. A final word, Fiona? The guidelines which recently
:32:55. > :32:57.acknowledge the existence of the abortions Hill and women's' use of
:32:58. > :33:05.that is evidence that the Department of Health are agonising women are
:33:06. > :33:08.accessing abortions in legal and illegal circumstances. I don't
:33:09. > :33:09.suppose you would ever agree on anything, but interesting to hear
:33:10. > :33:12.your side of the complex argument. And back in Commentators' Corner
:33:13. > :33:22.tonight are Alex Kane Hope you enjoyed your Easter eggs
:33:23. > :33:26.over the last couple of weeks. We've got a couple of serious issues to
:33:27. > :33:31.talk about tonight. We will talk about Europe and Brexit in a couple
:33:32. > :33:34.of minutes. Let's pick up on the abortion debate. You think it has
:33:35. > :33:42.moved on beyond the narrow confines of discussing in terms of fatal
:33:43. > :33:48.foetal abnormality to a wider discussion? I think it has moved on
:33:49. > :33:51.massively. In terms of citizenship, with the socio- issues, it strikes
:33:52. > :33:57.me as fundamentally absurd and wrong. It is legal in England,
:33:58. > :34:04.Scotland and Wales but not in Northern Ireland. I also think, as a
:34:05. > :34:10.father, I have a 17-year-old and I love her. I trust her enough to be
:34:11. > :34:13.able to make our own decisions. If she's ever pregnant, to make the
:34:14. > :34:18.decision that is right for her in those circumstances. Because I love
:34:19. > :34:22.and trust her, I am willing to love and trust that every other woman who
:34:23. > :34:25.finds herself in that situation should be able to make a decision
:34:26. > :34:31.for herself. It worries me that somehow we've built a place apart
:34:32. > :34:36.Northern Ireland where we don't trust Northern Ireland to be capable
:34:37. > :34:39.of making a decision for themselves. Paul, do you get any indication that
:34:40. > :34:44.there is a serious appetite amongst our politicians for a change to the
:34:45. > :34:48.law in abortion? I don't get that sense from the politicians,
:34:49. > :34:59.definitely not. That's what it will take for change to happen. It will
:35:00. > :35:06.in legal terms. I take Alex's point. It's an emotive subject and the
:35:07. > :35:12.complex subject. It is a polarising subject. I am a father as well. I am
:35:13. > :35:18.uncomfortable of the fact there are three men around the table. I think
:35:19. > :35:24.it is important. I am the father of a daughter and I have different
:35:25. > :35:29.views on the subject of abortion. God forbid she ever found herself in
:35:30. > :35:32.the place where she was contemplating an abortion, I may not
:35:33. > :35:36.agree with her doing it, but I would still love her. It is a very, very
:35:37. > :35:44.difficult one. I do feel there is a can is known that maybe it is moving
:35:45. > :35:50.in the direction of having this abortion, I don't think that is the
:35:51. > :35:54.view of society at large. I think not just on this issue but a lot of
:35:55. > :35:57.issues, politicians are way behind the general public. I think there's
:35:58. > :36:04.something happening. It is impossible to know. It is anecdotal,
:36:05. > :36:09.its panels. A loss of the Berlin Northern Ireland are choosing not to
:36:10. > :36:15.vote. There is something not right. -- a lot of people in Northern
:36:16. > :36:19.Ireland. The fact that they debate to kill off the big social and moral
:36:20. > :36:25.debate makes me think that they do know. Parties are behind the rate on
:36:26. > :36:29.so many issues, but maybe not on abortion. Let's move onto the
:36:30. > :36:36.subject of the referendum which we do know are having in June. We
:36:37. > :36:42.disagree on this. I wonder after that heated and good-humoured debate
:36:43. > :36:48.between Alan Johnson and Sammy Wilson, if anybody undecided might
:36:49. > :36:56.have been able to inch his or her way towards deciding how to vote, do
:36:57. > :37:01.people just have a knee jerk view without actually listening to what
:37:02. > :37:05.it is politicians have said? I think there are people quite clearly in
:37:06. > :37:12.the yes or No Campaign. I am in the let's get out camp. What you have in
:37:13. > :37:16.the middle, maybe 35% who are undecided, they won't be moved. They
:37:17. > :37:20.don't understand the economics or trade agreements. Will they
:37:21. > :37:26.understand it any better after tonight? No. But what matters is the
:37:27. > :37:33.perception. Neither side knows. For the end of the day, I think we will
:37:34. > :37:38.vote to stay in bed and two because people will go for the status quo
:37:39. > :37:46.and they went think it through. But micro-vote to stay in.
:37:47. > :37:54.The difficulty is you have conflict opinions coming from what we would
:37:55. > :38:00.have regarded as respected economists. The facts are we would
:38:01. > :38:08.be a lot worse off if there is a Brexit vote. I think the pound
:38:09. > :38:11.windfall. I am not at all sure any money will be coming in Northern
:38:12. > :38:16.Ireland's direction. You are making this up as you go along. Possible
:38:17. > :38:23.job losses, I would fear. What astounds me is that after 43 years
:38:24. > :38:27.of membership we are told this is a wonderful thing. All they can come
:38:28. > :38:32.up with, if we leave, it is like if you get caught in Mr MacGregor's
:38:33. > :38:44.garden you will get put in a rabbit high. There has to be something more
:38:45. > :38:51.convincing. -- rabbit pie. I find it quite frightening in a sense. We
:38:52. > :38:54.will come back to this at times. We will leave it there, thank you.
:38:55. > :38:56.That's it from The View for this week.
:38:57. > :38:58.Join me for Sunday Politics at 11:35am here on BBC One,
:38:59. > :39:01.when I'll be talking to the Alliance Party's Naomi Long.
:39:02. > :39:03.And with the election campaign now in full swing,
:39:04. > :39:06.we're seeing lots of familiar faces and lots of new ones.
:39:07. > :39:08.But none of them are quite like the comedian
:39:09. > :39:28.My name is Keith Cruise. This year, I am running for election in west
:39:29. > :39:32.Belfast. I am running in North Down, Hollywood. It will be my power base.
:39:33. > :39:37.It is a great time to be from Hollywood. You have Rory McIlroy,
:39:38. > :39:45.number one golfer in the world. Jamie Gordon, top factory the world.
:39:46. > :39:50.On days like this, it will be compulsory for a big slip and slide
:39:51. > :39:52.the entire length of the road. There are far better reasons to
:39:53. > :39:58.discriminate against someone other than sexuality. You can discriminate
:39:59. > :39:59.against their parents, their social standing,