:00:00. > :00:00.The voting is over, the boxes have been sealed and 108 Assembly
:00:00. > :00:11.Tonight on The View we look back at an election campaign that pushed
:00:12. > :00:18.social issues to the fore and we talk to some of the players
:00:19. > :00:36.who've been involved in previous campaigns.
:00:37. > :00:39.276 candidates are tonight awaiting the outcome
:00:40. > :00:45.Fewer than half of them will make it to Stormont once
:00:46. > :00:49.So has this really been a lack-lustre election as some
:00:50. > :00:54.commentators have maintained or has the prominence of issues
:00:55. > :00:57.like abortion and same-sex marriage meant politics here is changing?
:00:58. > :00:59.I'll be asking veterans of previous elections for their assessment
:01:00. > :01:05.Plus, what is it that motivates the fringe candidates
:01:06. > :01:08.to plough their lonely furrows, despite having little
:01:09. > :01:21.I'm doing this for the people. I care about this time. Very expensive
:01:22. > :01:28.and I would say it is not made easy for you. Cuts in health and
:01:29. > :01:30.education, for you. Cuts in health and
:01:31. > :01:32.out there, anyone really care? And sharing their voting secrets
:01:33. > :01:45.with us, Newton Emerson Hello. Some would say it has been a
:01:46. > :01:49.campaign which hasn't caught fire. Over the last five weeks, the
:01:50. > :01:53.politicians have been on their best behaviour, pounding the streets and
:01:54. > :02:00.pressing the flesh in the hope of securing a members pass for storm.
:02:01. > :02:05.The rider was about keeping Arlene Foster as First Minister. Flags and
:02:06. > :02:09.parades barely got a mention as the focus shifted to social and moral
:02:10. > :02:12.issues. Does that mean we are entering a period of more mature and
:02:13. > :02:16.political debate? We will ask my guests in a moment but first, a
:02:17. > :02:22.reminder of some of the issues which did get our politicians going. What
:02:23. > :02:34.Arlene has is a five word plan, do not mention Peter Robinson. I have a
:02:35. > :02:39.1-point plan, make it work. Unlike Mike Nesbitt, I remember the bad old
:02:40. > :02:43.days of pushover unionism, and what it was like when we were making
:02:44. > :02:51.concessions to the IRA. That we tell you what I'm going to do, I'm going
:02:52. > :02:58.into government. Unlike the south, where they've refused to go into
:02:59. > :03:01.government. What we saw was a clear pronouncement that there was a
:03:02. > :03:07.pro-life position in Northern Ireland. There needs to be
:03:08. > :03:09.compassion. It was not in the public interest to prosecute a young woman
:03:10. > :03:14.who found herself in a difficult situation but when it comes to
:03:15. > :03:18.dealing with sexual crime, we need legislation that supports those
:03:19. > :03:22.women who find themselves in a very difficult situation. Do they think
:03:23. > :03:28.it is acceptable that a young person like me cannot find a party that's
:03:29. > :03:32.worth voting for? You will ever get a perfect fit. But get involved,
:03:33. > :03:39.change the party that is the best fit to be a better fit. What you are
:03:40. > :03:47.focused on is making sure we are the largest party. We are putting our...
:03:48. > :03:53.I'm sorry, I asked you... I asked you what of the other party became
:03:54. > :03:55.the biggest party? It is never easy getting a straight answer,
:03:56. > :04:01.especially during an election campaign. I'm joined by a former
:04:02. > :04:06.director of configurations for the SDLP, and Mark Davenport and Seamus
:04:07. > :04:18.close, a former is -- former Alliance MLA. You are all welcome to
:04:19. > :04:23.the programme. Mark, you've been trying to build up a picture of
:04:24. > :04:29.turnout, not completely scientific. What figures have been emerging so
:04:30. > :04:34.far? It is utterly unscientific. The only thing I would say is thanks to
:04:35. > :04:38.everyone on social media, Twitter, who have been sending me pictures of
:04:39. > :04:42.the notices that have posted on the walls of polling stations which
:04:43. > :04:46.gives you an idea of turnout at noon, five o'clock and nine o'clock.
:04:47. > :04:49.This is based on some of those pictures that have been going
:04:50. > :04:57.through. You have a sample of about 40 different boxes and given there
:04:58. > :05:00.is more than 1380 boxes in total, that's a pretty small sample. But it
:05:01. > :05:05.gives you a sense of what is going on. Not surprisingly, in the East of
:05:06. > :05:12.Northern Ireland, the turnout seems to be much lower than in the West.
:05:13. > :05:20.Some of the most boxes have been in places like North Down. One box had
:05:21. > :05:24.only 36%. Another, 40%. In contrast, South Antrim always has a very high
:05:25. > :05:29.record of voting and you're getting up to 59% and 70%. They will not
:05:30. > :05:34.blind everyone with percentages. Overall, I would say slightly down
:05:35. > :05:38.but maybe not as dramatically down as some of the predictions have
:05:39. > :05:43.been. It may be that if there was a lacklustre campaign, it has been
:05:44. > :05:48.buoyed on polling day by the good weather and people saying why not? I
:05:49. > :05:51.would expect a slight decrease but not as dramatic as some pictures
:05:52. > :05:57.have been. I would also say, in relation to the news that senior
:05:58. > :06:02.electoral officials say they have been happy, I have been getting some
:06:03. > :06:06.reports late this evening about some trouble in the galley area. We need
:06:07. > :06:09.to hear from the police to confirm that but that has happened in the
:06:10. > :06:14.past that when ballot boxes have been moved out, sometimes there have
:06:15. > :06:20.been attacks on the police and I've been hearing some reports of that,
:06:21. > :06:24.maybe some petrol bombs. We'll keep an eye on that. In the meantime,
:06:25. > :06:31.Seamus, you've been that soldier. What is it like to watch the polls
:06:32. > :06:35.close and begin the process of number crunching? Does that start
:06:36. > :06:38.straightaway as far as the candidate 's concerns? It starts from before
:06:39. > :06:43.straightaway. You are working on it constantly throughout the campaign.
:06:44. > :06:46.Every night, you are coming back home, looking at what you're
:06:47. > :06:50.expecting to get in different areas, analysing it with previous ones and
:06:51. > :06:54.counting up watching entrance is our success. I think this is the bit
:06:55. > :06:57.that the general public are not fully aware of. There are going to
:06:58. > :07:02.be a number of people who, tonight, that is their last night in the job.
:07:03. > :07:06.They are going to lose. They're not going to have income. That is the
:07:07. > :07:12.cruel bit of politics. I think the general public have got to be aware
:07:13. > :07:20.of that. You know, it's an ongoing process. The first few hours of the
:07:21. > :07:25.boxes opening, and you look at where you are lying, and what preferences
:07:26. > :07:30.you have got and he start doing your sums to see how high up the pecking
:07:31. > :07:34.order you hope to be. And presumably that would be happening in
:07:35. > :07:36.constituency offices and party headquarters, people will be trying
:07:37. > :07:40.to glean as much as they can from the pictures we have been looking at
:07:41. > :07:45.on Twitter. Any little crumb of information. You see, the last
:07:46. > :07:49.seats, sometimes the fifth and sixth seed in a PR election, operate on
:07:50. > :07:53.the finest of margins and it depends on what your pecking order is for
:07:54. > :07:57.the first preference as to how long you may stay in, to what preferences
:07:58. > :08:03.you may be to get throughout the rest of the. It is at times very
:08:04. > :08:08.critical. The tally operation gets going tomorrow. In many cases, they
:08:09. > :08:12.have to look to the paper to see on the other side of the paper because
:08:13. > :08:15.normally the tail -- verification happens with the numbers down to see
:08:16. > :08:19.if they can see where the ones are going. Tonight, looking at these
:08:20. > :08:22.figures, there will be working out is an area that is traditionally
:08:23. > :08:25.strong for us, other voters turning out in that area? At least those
:08:26. > :08:30.numbers would give them an idea because they will know where those
:08:31. > :08:33.ballot boxes. Some commentators have criticised the campaign for being a
:08:34. > :08:39.bit lacklustre. But as far as spin doctors are concerned, and you are
:08:40. > :08:44.regarded as a good spin doctor, if it is a low key campaign, is that in
:08:45. > :08:48.fact what people like yourself wanted? To keep candidates out of
:08:49. > :08:51.trouble as much as you possibly could. Does that make it a good
:08:52. > :08:55.campaign from your perspective? In some instances, that is correct. The
:08:56. > :08:59.more you can get through the campaign without any major hits, the
:09:00. > :09:05.better. When I first started, someone described an election
:09:06. > :09:10.campaign like flying an aeroplane. When you take off, it's perfectly
:09:11. > :09:15.working but that time you land, the wings are falling off! What happens
:09:16. > :09:18.now is because politicians and political parties who are so scared
:09:19. > :09:22.to make a mistake that they don't want to be adventurous. We've seen
:09:23. > :09:26.this at the time it when we talk about what makes a campaign dull and
:09:27. > :09:29.lacklustre, the fact nobody has made a mistake. What makes a campaign
:09:30. > :09:33.interesting is when someone makes a gaffe. I have to ask you then, in
:09:34. > :09:40.all honesty, how would you have handled the Gerry Adams tweet, if
:09:41. > :09:44.that had fallen onto your desk? There is a standard mechanism for
:09:45. > :09:48.any form of crisis can locations and it is get your response out first,
:09:49. > :09:51.get it yourself and get it out on your own terms. What happened with
:09:52. > :10:00.the Sinn Fein incident was it happened overnight,
:10:01. > :10:03.the Sinn Fein incident was it said it was followed up by a press
:10:04. > :10:06.conference at lunchtime. The apology should have come immediately, rather
:10:07. > :10:14.than constant updates of statements. A simple lesson there. They departed
:10:15. > :10:18.from the agreed script. Obviously, different incidents are more serious
:10:19. > :10:25.than others. If your first to hold your hands up, we are sorry, that's
:10:26. > :10:28.better. John, in Liverpool, you been following the campaign closely. Is
:10:29. > :10:34.it fair to say that the agenda this time round seemed to be different
:10:35. > :10:38.from the north? No flags or parades, no huge skull of the constitutional
:10:39. > :10:43.position. We didn't discuss welfare reform at all pretty much, as far as
:10:44. > :10:46.I could tell. We talked about job creation, abortion, same-sex
:10:47. > :10:49.marriage, who should get the First Minister 's job. Is that good or
:10:50. > :10:54.bad? Yeah, I think the agenda was different. There was less of the
:10:55. > :11:02.Orange versus Green in the actual debate, although in terms of cross
:11:03. > :11:05.community transfer, it has been in single figures and I would expect a
:11:06. > :11:09.low level of cross community transfers as per normal. The actual
:11:10. > :11:12.agenda was different. I don't accept the orthodox view of most of the
:11:13. > :11:17.foreign -- commentators that it was a dull campaign. I think it was
:11:18. > :11:21.refreshing that there were debate about health, jobs, mental health
:11:22. > :11:25.and other matters. In fact, I quite enjoyed the leaders debate. I even
:11:26. > :11:29.watched it again on BBC Parliament last night which puts me in a
:11:30. > :11:37.category of one! But they were feisty ex-Rangers at well. --
:11:38. > :11:41.exchanges. It is to elections within one and it was significant that most
:11:42. > :11:45.of the heat in the leaders debate really was between the DPP and UUP
:11:46. > :11:51.locking horns early on with a sound bite from Nesbitt was up late in the
:11:52. > :11:56.programme, to others having a go. It is to separate elections. In terms
:11:57. > :11:59.of tonight, the news from Mark Davenport is encouraging. We
:12:00. > :12:04.shouldn't beat ourselves up about turnout. It's been consistently
:12:05. > :12:08.higher in Northern Ireland than Scotland, and discover Parliament
:12:09. > :12:13.has far more powers. In 2003, a dark November day, 62% of the population
:12:14. > :12:17.went out and voted for an assembly which didn't even exist at the time.
:12:18. > :12:22.We shouldn't get too hung up about that. The big question is, who is
:12:23. > :12:27.going to do well? I would expect some UUP gains. They are capable of
:12:28. > :12:31.taking three seats in Antrim. I would also expect Sinn Fein to put
:12:32. > :12:36.on a seat if anything, in tinsel predictions for the selection.
:12:37. > :12:39.That's interesting to hear your thoughts. Maybe we can pick up on
:12:40. > :12:42.that because there's a lot of speculation. I note Nicholas
:12:43. > :12:46.Whiteley will be joining us in the next couple of days and he has been
:12:47. > :12:51.running the numbers, making predictions as well. The D U P had a
:12:52. > :12:57.high water mark back in 2011. They could use if you seats. The SDLP is
:12:58. > :13:02.looking for seats but there are some dire predictions they could lose a
:13:03. > :13:06.few. Sinn Fein as well, looking for the magic number of 30 to be able to
:13:07. > :13:11.trigger a petition of concern. How do you see at shaping up? There has
:13:12. > :13:15.been a lot of publicity about the whole notion of the First Minister,
:13:16. > :13:21.Arlene Foster has put that centre stage. It's predicated domination of
:13:22. > :13:25.Sinn Fein catching up the D. The thing at 2011, even though that was
:13:26. > :13:30.good for the deed you pay, the idea they could slip from a 38 seat to 29
:13:31. > :13:34.seat margin to lose that top place seems unlikely. Instead, we may see
:13:35. > :13:39.a change in the scale of the difference but not necessarily the
:13:40. > :13:43.pecking order. I think what is likely is Sinn Fein could make a few
:13:44. > :13:46.advances and get possibly 30 seats on their own which is significant
:13:47. > :13:51.for triggering a petition of concern. The sorts of places they
:13:52. > :13:53.will be looking to make gains would be where Dolores Kelly has been
:13:54. > :13:58.under a lot of pressure and they are trying to push Kathleen Seely
:13:59. > :14:03.through. Doyle is an area where they would like to make a game at the STL
:14:04. > :14:06.P's expense. That is where Sinn Fein was to expand. The deed UUP, there
:14:07. > :14:09.are some places where they think they might be able to make gains,
:14:10. > :14:14.for instance if they were fortunate in that way West Belfast breaks
:14:15. > :14:18.down, maybe they could get a game there. Because of the division
:14:19. > :14:21.between nationalists within the parties in West Tyrone, they
:14:22. > :14:24.previously did have an extra seat there, could they get in there? I
:14:25. > :14:27.think they would actually be glad if they were able to hold onto what
:14:28. > :14:31.they got because they are under pressure. We have seen Mike Nesbitt
:14:32. > :14:33.on a comeback trail in recent elections. I think Arlene Foster's
:14:34. > :14:54.job is to hold him off. Column eastward's role is not to
:14:55. > :15:04.sustain too much damage. There are as many as six potential losses for
:15:05. > :15:08.the SDLP. The margins are so tight that the ball could bounce either
:15:09. > :15:14.way. In the infancy of his leadership, he needs to come out of
:15:15. > :15:21.this reasonably unscathed. I think what Colin can point to as a success
:15:22. > :15:25.is that he has infused the party membership and the party hard-core.
:15:26. > :15:31.He stood toe to toe with the likes of Martin McGuinness and threw
:15:32. > :15:35.punches back. It has really got them engaged again. They have gone
:15:36. > :15:40.through with new confidence. It might be a bit like Jurgen Klopp, as
:15:41. > :15:48.a football manager, a season too soon. Is it good to have Naomi Long
:15:49. > :15:54.back on the bus? She has charisma and charm and she doesn't do. Is.
:15:55. > :16:01.She delivers a message very strongly. She will be an assistant.
:16:02. > :16:05.I see her presence in East Belfast swinging that third seat to the
:16:06. > :16:10.alliance, I can see them making a game in this particular election.
:16:11. > :16:16.All in all, it is going to be around the margins. The DUP might lose a
:16:17. > :16:24.couple of seats and the SDLP might lose a seat. Seamus, what about the
:16:25. > :16:33.smaller parties? Could the independence be wiped out? Naughty
:16:34. > :16:44.corner, I think the Diouf have got a seat. Ukip. They are strong. They
:16:45. > :16:51.could get it. Depending on what the voters for. I think Claire Sugden in
:16:52. > :16:56.East Londonderry, very much around the margins there. If she gets
:16:57. > :17:04.sufficient first preferences to get about 10%, she could still hold onto
:17:05. > :17:08.the seat. Steven Agnew of the Green Party said he would be disappointed
:17:09. > :17:14.not to get three seats. John McCallister is desperate to hold on
:17:15. > :17:17.in Southdown. I don't see him holding on in Southdown. There is a
:17:18. > :17:23.historical difficulty with Jim Wells. Strangely, in Northern
:17:24. > :17:26.Ireland, we don't vote for independence. The battles were
:17:27. > :17:33.within unionism and within nationalism. The independence do get
:17:34. > :17:38.squeezed. The strong voice of Jim McAllister has been a lone
:17:39. > :17:43.opposition voice and it helps him. There is one new face on the block.
:17:44. > :17:55.That is Jerry Carroll. People before profit. Let's just go back to John
:17:56. > :17:59.in Liverpool. Let's go back to the DUP campaign strategy to hang it all
:18:00. > :18:07.on the leader. Was it right or was it a mistake? I think it was strong.
:18:08. > :18:12.She can appeal right across the spectrum. The DUP had to raise its
:18:13. > :18:18.own game further. They fought a fantastic election in 2011. To get
:18:19. > :18:25.38 with the number of candidates that they put up was some
:18:26. > :18:34.performance. Arlene Foster does offer something fresh. The DUP is
:18:35. > :18:37.still a small party. They don't have many activists to get the vote out.
:18:38. > :18:46.That makes their performance even more remarkable. The parties with
:18:47. > :18:53.the larger memberships can get their vote out more easily. I do expect
:18:54. > :19:04.UUP gains but I think they would have gained more if DUP leader not
:19:05. > :19:11.been Arlene Foster. Sometimes I worry when I hear about red lines
:19:12. > :19:18.and not bloodlines. I think the smaller parties, the Ulster Unionist
:19:19. > :19:24.Party is the SDLP made a mistake not going in by stating, we are going
:19:25. > :19:27.into opposition. Only seven ministries are to be allocated and
:19:28. > :19:34.they are going to be left at the back with choices. We don't know
:19:35. > :19:46.what the threshold for government is, say it is around seven M L a s
:19:47. > :19:52.they could fall below the threshold. The big battle between Martin
:19:53. > :20:07.McGuinness and Colin eastward? How will that shape up? I think that
:20:08. > :20:10.could go to SDLP. I think Sinn Fein will stay with two seats. That would
:20:11. > :20:31.mean one of their outgoing MLAs would have lost a
:20:32. > :20:36.seat. If they stay with two and SDLP go down to two, they will see it as
:20:37. > :20:50.a victory anyway. Thanks very much to you all.
:20:51. > :20:52.Well, of course, the election isn't all about the big parties.
:20:53. > :20:55.Spare a thought for the growing band of independent candidates -
:20:56. > :20:57.the ones who've faced a lonely battle, against the odds,
:20:58. > :21:00.in the hope they can join the big boys and girls
:21:01. > :21:03.Gareth Gordon has been to meet three of them.
:21:04. > :21:08.So you want to be an MLA but you have to fund it out of your own
:21:09. > :21:15.pocket. Why would anyone want to bother? Cory French has been
:21:16. > :21:21.involved in local politics in Strabane since he was 16. He has now
:21:22. > :21:27.reached the grand old age of 21. I don't want to go into the assembly
:21:28. > :21:33.and make promises I can't keep. I can promise you something now. That
:21:34. > :21:38.is what is wrong. People don't care enough about each other. It is dog
:21:39. > :21:47.eat dog. I haven't made a promise in the election. It is like me trying
:21:48. > :21:51.to go to the assembly and not keep my promise. It would make me look
:21:52. > :21:55.bad. It would look as though I told you live is. I'm just saying I can
:21:56. > :22:01.do my best and that is all we really say. When he's not pulling aside
:22:02. > :22:04.potential voters, he is pulling pints in a local pub. Have you
:22:05. > :22:17.decided who to vote for in the election? Now, come on. I thought
:22:18. > :22:20.that was your favourite man. I decided because I was just
:22:21. > :22:24.that was your favourite man. I the way things were.
:22:25. > :22:27.that was your favourite man. I I'm hoping I can go on with a
:22:28. > :22:33.that was your favourite man. I victory, not for me, I'm doing this
:22:34. > :22:36.for the people of this town. Strabane is a town that
:22:37. > :22:39.for the people of this town. tight-knit. The people are
:22:40. > :22:48.excellent. We all look out for each other. I'll only doing it for them.
:22:49. > :22:52.I am not just trying to get votes, I care about this town and there is
:22:53. > :22:56.not enough happening in this town to make it better. So, I'm doing what I
:22:57. > :23:09.can now to try and help. Get young people back to work. Meet Colin
:23:10. > :23:16.Burns the man pledging to bring common-sense to politics in north
:23:17. > :23:21.Belfast. We are different. We don't want to be the same old politics. We
:23:22. > :23:25.are not flying under any flag and we are here to assist the whole
:23:26. > :23:31.community. A former driving instructor, you has found the whole
:23:32. > :23:36.process a test. Very difficult, very expensive. It is not made easy for
:23:37. > :23:42.you. The information is not out there to assist you. I have found
:23:43. > :23:50.some departments very helpful, I have found other quangos unhelpful.
:23:51. > :23:56.You are called common-sense NI but it is not on the ballot paper. I am
:23:57. > :24:03.officially recognised by the election as being a party but they
:24:04. > :24:10.are a week late in recognising that. I thought it was going to happen. I
:24:11. > :24:14.am allowed to use the symbol, I am allowed to use the name on the
:24:15. > :24:19.election leaflet but it won't be on the ballot papers because they are
:24:20. > :24:26.weak late in telling me that I can. How much is it costing you? All I
:24:27. > :24:30.will say is that it is thousands. While Earth would you want to do
:24:31. > :24:38.that? Because I believe in North Al fast. But if they don't believe in
:24:39. > :24:51.you it is a pointless gesture. Sometimes you have to go with your
:24:52. > :25:00.heart. Unlike Tom Burns, this man has gone for election before. No
:25:01. > :25:10.room for is a boast -- insubordination, I am the one for
:25:11. > :25:14.the nation. Vote Christie. I've got great ideas. Deficit reduction
:25:15. > :25:20.without austerity. I'm not going to say here what it is but I will be
:25:21. > :25:29.saying in a few days. He says the Independent's task is not an easy
:25:30. > :25:33.one. It's a huge challenge but it is a way to get issues out there. You
:25:34. > :25:38.know that you are up against it because you are not going to get in.
:25:39. > :25:45.You have to be innovative in your approach because you haven't got a
:25:46. > :25:51.permanent seat. It is interesting to see how well the independent Barr
:25:52. > :25:56.are doing down south but they are not here. It is because our
:25:57. > :26:03.democracy doesn't work. And he is no fan of the First Minister. I had to
:26:04. > :26:09.go into a studio, rent a studio, I can't afford to hire anyone so you
:26:10. > :26:15.have to do anything yourself. It is expensive. Also, it is draining.
:26:16. > :26:19.It's not very easy. People say, why are you putting yourself through it?
:26:20. > :26:31.You have too. I feel I have two. Maybe this is my last chance. That
:26:32. > :26:33.said, you know. Life moves on. We will see tomorrow how many of those
:26:34. > :26:38.lone voices have the X factor. So, that's the story here -
:26:39. > :26:40.but we'd be very self-absorbed to believe we're the only place
:26:41. > :26:43.which went to the polls today. Scotland and Wales are also
:26:44. > :26:45.electing their new Assemblies, the English local council elections
:26:46. > :26:48.are taking place and in London Joining me now from London
:26:49. > :26:52.is The Herald's Westminster Kate, you've been following
:26:53. > :27:00.the London Mayoral race closely. It's fair to say, I think,
:27:01. > :27:16.that it's been a pretty It has. It has been really nasty. It
:27:17. > :27:21.has been dogged for weeks with accusations of racism that the
:27:22. > :27:26.Conservative Zac Goldsmith and even the Prime Minister have been accused
:27:27. > :27:32.of dog whistling to voters over the fact that the Labour candidate is a
:27:33. > :27:39.Muslim. In the last week, it's been embroiled in the anti-Semitism row
:27:40. > :27:43.that has engulfed labour as well. It has been a very nasty campaign. It
:27:44. > :27:50.is a very important campaign because it is not just a race to be the
:27:51. > :27:58.London mayor, it is really going to feed into the ongoing civil war
:27:59. > :28:08.between Labour MPs and Jeremy Corbyn who think he is making the party an
:28:09. > :28:11.unelectable party. They are going to have a very bad night to night and
:28:12. > :28:16.London could be the only silver lining that they have. The position
:28:17. > :28:21.of London mayor has even more power over file and power than it had even
:28:22. > :28:27.recently. As it made the race import and for the Tory party as well? It
:28:28. > :28:31.has made it very important for the Conservatives but it has actually
:28:32. > :28:36.been a very difficult and naughty race for them. The candidate that
:28:37. > :28:44.they picked at the start of the campaign was very popular as an MP
:28:45. > :28:47.and a noted a college is to but it blew up in their face with the
:28:48. > :28:53.problem of what they were going to do about airport expansion in the
:28:54. > :28:58.south-east. They had two, of actively, but it on hold until the
:28:59. > :29:01.election campaign is over and it looks as though it might have been
:29:02. > :29:08.accompanied pointless gesture if Mr Goldsmith doesn't win the election.
:29:09. > :29:12.If he does take a beating in the poll, will it have implications in
:29:13. > :29:15.the wider power struggle that we hear so much about in the
:29:16. > :29:21.Conservative Party? It is very interesting. The outgoing London
:29:22. > :29:26.mayor is, of course, Boris Johnson and you would have thought that an
:29:27. > :29:29.outgoing Tory mayor might face questions if the Tories get a
:29:30. > :29:34.hammering in the race to succeed him. Two things have probably
:29:35. > :29:39.happened that could help Boris in this one. First of all, the tone
:29:40. > :29:43.that this campaign is taken, you cannot imagine the jovial, cheeky
:29:44. > :29:48.chappie that is Boris Johnson indulging in that kind of rhetoric.
:29:49. > :29:52.Secondly, there has been a timing issue and most people would argue
:29:53. > :29:55.that Boris Johnson has spent more time talking about the European
:29:56. > :29:57.Union in the last couple of weeks than he has about who should be the
:29:58. > :30:09.next Mayor of London. Do you think we can expect to see
:30:10. > :30:16.the continuation of the electoral march of the SNP? Is it as cut and
:30:17. > :30:20.dried as that? Yes is the short answer. The SNP are definitely going
:30:21. > :30:25.to win this evening. The question then becomes by how much do they win
:30:26. > :30:29.by? The Scottish parliament was actually set up to try to prevent
:30:30. > :30:33.any party getting a majority. Ironically, you might think now,
:30:34. > :30:39.because of fears of the dominance of the Labour Party, and so the SNP
:30:40. > :30:45.face a bit of a task to try and get their second majority. But it's
:30:46. > :30:49.crucial for them because they really need another majority. Were they
:30:50. > :30:54.ever to have another independence referendum, they would expect a vote
:30:55. > :30:58.in the parliament to give it legitimacy and they face lots of
:30:59. > :31:01.problems if they didn't get that. Just a quick final word about what
:31:02. > :31:05.happens to the other parties in Scotland because some are suggesting
:31:06. > :31:09.that the Tories could become the second-largest party ahead of
:31:10. > :31:14.Labour, which seems rather odd given what is happening south of the
:31:15. > :31:25.border. It is true. The Tories very possibly could come second. It would
:31:26. > :31:29.impart the more likely because Labour have undertaken them. What we
:31:30. > :31:34.have found in this campaign is the Labour brand is becoming toxic. We
:31:35. > :31:38.did a poll where we asked voters what they thought of the flagship
:31:39. > :31:42.policy that Labour is offering in this election and they quite liked
:31:43. > :31:46.it but when they were told it was a Labour policy, they liked it an
:31:47. > :31:48.awful lot less. Fascinating, isn't it? Thank you very much. I'm sure
:31:49. > :31:53.you will be staying up all night. Let's hear what our commentators
:31:54. > :31:55.think of what we've been talking about tonight - freed
:31:56. > :31:58.as they now are from Newton Emerson and Cathy
:31:59. > :32:17.Gormley-Heenan are with me. It has been a little bit lacklustre
:32:18. > :32:21.but there's a reason that people won't talk about and that is the
:32:22. > :32:25.power-sharing arrangements that we have in place, which stops electoral
:32:26. > :32:28.volatility. We are never going to have circumstances whereby you have
:32:29. > :32:32.an SNP landslide like we've witnessed in Scotland or the
:32:33. > :32:36.collapse of the Lib Dems. That's never going to happen in Northern
:32:37. > :32:39.Ireland because of the way the power-sharing arrangement works.
:32:40. > :32:46.What we have here are two contests, a contest to be the largest party
:32:47. > :32:49.within your ethnic nationalist bloc, so the largest party within unionism
:32:50. > :32:53.and the largest party within nationalism. And the second contest,
:32:54. > :32:57.to be the largest party overall. That in effect has changed the way
:32:58. > :33:02.the electoral campaigns have had to be conducted here. But there is
:33:03. > :33:06.never been an election which has come to breaking that kind of
:33:07. > :33:10.thinking as this one. This has been a remarkably civilised and grown-up
:33:11. > :33:16.campaign by Northern Ireland standards. The parties have tried to
:33:17. > :33:22.bring real issues to the fore. There are social issues. There are changes
:33:23. > :33:25.to how Stormont is going to work. We got economic issues coming. We have
:33:26. > :33:31.two consider the real possibility that if this didn't excite the
:33:32. > :33:35.electorate, that's because it's not sectarian enough. I disagree.
:33:36. > :33:40.Regardless of whether a party says we are rather better for health,
:33:41. > :33:45.unless they get the health Department, they cannot have change
:33:46. > :33:49.in that area. But the DPP did raise the issue of taking action education
:33:50. > :33:53.and under the new system, that becomes a real possibility. We are
:33:54. > :33:57.going into a two-week negotiation for that. None of the parties so
:33:58. > :34:02.that although they did bring the issue. It raises the other issue
:34:03. > :34:05.about this sham fight between the DDP and Sinn Fein, where Arlene
:34:06. > :34:10.Foster is saying don't vote for Martin McGuinness and then vote for
:34:11. > :34:16.Mike Nesbitt, you've got to vote for me and my candidates. At the same
:34:17. > :34:20.time, they are going to work together. It's pretty obvious to
:34:21. > :34:24.everyone, they are going to be in the executive together running
:34:25. > :34:27.Northern Ireland. It's disappointing they didn't take the opportunity to
:34:28. > :34:31.sell that point. Everyone knows it. The opportunity of a new First
:34:32. > :34:41.Minister was a chance to set a new tone but it hasn't been taken. That
:34:42. > :34:44.has put off people. They don't have to hold hands but they could have
:34:45. > :34:47.been honest with the electorate that they are working on a joint
:34:48. > :34:51.programme for government. The manifesto is essentially mash and
:34:52. > :34:55.they could say we will professionally deal with each other.
:34:56. > :35:01.Sinn Fein did that but the deed UUP didn't. Was it ever a possibility?
:35:02. > :35:07.No, because Sinn Fein were playing the kind of bigger card here by
:35:08. > :35:10.saying, we will have joint First Minister starters, knowing full well
:35:11. > :35:15.they already have that status. This was a smoke screen and a red herring
:35:16. > :35:19.to an extent because the reality is, the triple lock system that has put
:35:20. > :35:23.in place with the St Andrews agreement in 2007 meant it doesn't
:35:24. > :35:27.matter who the largest party is in Northern Ireland, there will always
:35:28. > :35:32.be protections in place for the second-largest party and the second
:35:33. > :35:36.ethnic block, so to speak. I know journalists have mocked this sham
:35:37. > :35:45.fight. I've heard from the deed UUP that it did get a response on the
:35:46. > :35:50.doorsteps. -- DUP. If we see this as a form of negative campaigning, it
:35:51. > :35:58.tends not to win the electorate over. It makes it more memorable.
:35:59. > :36:04.People weren't necessarily go out and vote for Arlene, so the GU P
:36:05. > :36:08.become the largest party. Let's put on our soothsayers hats here and see
:36:09. > :36:15.what the future might hold. What do you think the situation is good to
:36:16. > :36:18.look like and 48 stand? The indication is that the turnout has
:36:19. > :36:22.the same as before, which would indicate that the result will be
:36:23. > :36:27.roughly about the same as before. More or less. The main issue to
:36:28. > :36:33.watch for here is Alliance. Can Alliance make it over the threshold
:36:34. > :36:37.of roughly 11 and malaise? And deserve a place in the executive.
:36:38. > :36:42.It's going to get given one but if that is the only seat it has, it
:36:43. > :36:47.looks a bit shaky. I am most interested in what happens with the
:36:48. > :36:51.smaller parties. Now we have royal assent given to the establishment of
:36:52. > :36:55.an official opposition, that means party is not in government get to
:36:56. > :36:58.hold very influential committee chair positions like the chair of
:36:59. > :37:04.the Public Accounts Committee. If the SDLP and the UUP decide to sign
:37:05. > :37:10.up to the executive, that means that party is not in government that will
:37:11. > :37:13.be drawn from a very small cohort, maybe the Greens, will hold very
:37:14. > :37:19.influential positions in some of the most important select committees.
:37:20. > :37:23.That would be good for democracy, would it? Absolutely. I think the
:37:24. > :37:28.more likely option is you will get the big parties, the five big
:37:29. > :37:32.parties dropping out of the executive and becoming an unwilling
:37:33. > :37:36.opposition. We will see. We will discover the answers to all these
:37:37. > :37:39.fascinating questions in the not too distant future. Thanks very much.
:37:40. > :37:41.That's it from The View for this week.
:37:42. > :37:44.Join me tomorrow at three o'clock here on BBC One for our extensive
:37:45. > :37:46.coverage as the results start to roll in.
:37:47. > :37:49.Until then, here are a few lighter moments from the campaign
:37:50. > :37:51.All in the name of electing Northern
:37:52. > :38:20.I am always looking to the coalition... Jesus, Mary and Joseph!
:38:21. > :38:26.You've got seven at the moment? Would you like to rephrase that?
:38:27. > :38:33.Eight. OK. It's not the end of the discussion of the pundits must
:38:34. > :38:57.decide who one... To appeal to the grey vote...
:38:58. > :39:14.Come on! Come on! That's a good doggie! Where did you go? Where did
:39:15. > :39:22.you go? Are you really... We strongly recommend you transfer to
:39:23. > :39:26.the candidate and transfer on. I am more determined to bring about a
:39:27. > :39:35.reconciled people in Ireland but also a much fairer and more
:39:36. > :39:41.prosperous society as well. You are a people person that you do have a
:39:42. > :39:45.short fuse, don't you? Is that when I'm supposed to thank you? Yes. --
:39:46. > :39:48.thump you.