:00:00. > :00:00.The Ulster Unionists will be the first party of opposition
:00:00. > :00:08.at the Assembly in the modern Stormont era.
:00:09. > :00:11.Tonight on The View, I'll be asking the five main parties
:00:12. > :00:13.how that decision changes things, and if the SDLP might
:00:14. > :00:37.So the will-he, won't-he guessing game is over.
:00:38. > :00:40.Mike Nesbitt revealed his plans to the Assembly today,
:00:41. > :00:42.when he announced his party won't be taking a seat
:00:43. > :00:59.We have decided unanimously to firm the first opposition of this
:01:00. > :01:00.Northern Ireland Assembly. I'll be talking to the five main
:01:01. > :01:05.parties about the new dynamic that's Also tonight, why are fewer
:01:06. > :01:08.and fewer nationalists coming out to cast their votes
:01:09. > :01:10.at election time? Are Sinn Fein and the SDLP fishing
:01:11. > :01:25.for votes in the same shallow pond? If it was a one-off, parties would
:01:26. > :01:26.get ignored, but now it is a pattern. There is a lot of
:01:27. > :01:27.disillusion. And making a welcome return
:01:28. > :01:29.to Commentators' Corner, it's the professors,
:01:30. > :01:35.Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford. This afternoon's sitting
:01:36. > :01:36.of the Assembly was always going to be a carefully
:01:37. > :01:38.choreographed event, as MLAs signed the roll and watched
:01:39. > :01:42.as the Speaker and the First and Deputy First Ministers
:01:43. > :01:46.were officially appointed. What wasn't on the agenda,
:01:47. > :01:48.however, was a battle cry from Mike Nesbitt
:01:49. > :01:50.as he announced he was leading the Ulster Unionists
:01:51. > :01:52.into opposition. We'll ask the newly elected
:01:53. > :01:55.Ulster Unionist MLA Steve Aiken what's behind the move,
:01:56. > :01:57.and hear reaction from the other But first, here's how
:01:58. > :02:13.Mike Nesbitt informed Where they will not have our support
:02:14. > :02:19.is at the executive table, because the Ulster Unionists MLA group have
:02:20. > :02:28.decided unanimously to form the first official opposition at this
:02:29. > :02:37.Northern Ireland Assembly. This is a big and bold move to bring a better
:02:38. > :02:40.and a more normal democracy to the people of Northern Ireland. Let
:02:41. > :02:43.battle commence. And joining me, along
:02:44. > :02:45.with the Ulster Unionists' Steve Aiken, is the
:02:46. > :02:47.SDLP's Claire Hanna. Also here are the DUP's
:02:48. > :02:49.Paul Givan and the Alliance And in our Foyle studio
:02:50. > :03:06.is Sinn Fein's Declan Kearney. You're all akin to the programme.
:03:07. > :03:12.Steve Aiken, why make the choice to go into opposition has such an early
:03:13. > :03:16.stage in the discussion? It was turning into a very long wish list,
:03:17. > :03:22.there wasn't any detail in there. You would think that after nine
:03:23. > :03:25.years of DUP Government, there would be more information. As we looked at
:03:26. > :03:27.it more closely, we realised we would not get any information on it
:03:28. > :03:28.until the autumn or Christmas. Your leader said he'd decide
:03:29. > :03:31.at the end of the two-week discussion on a new Programme
:03:32. > :03:33.for Government, whether to go into Government or opposition,
:03:34. > :03:40.but he's made the decision It doesn't make sense. No, that if
:03:41. > :03:45.you have a look at what was there, it won't make a difference whether
:03:46. > :03:47.it is two weeks or four months, there will still be nothing
:03:48. > :03:49.substantial there. The best thing to do would be to make the decision
:03:50. > :03:49.now. David Ford says Mike Nesbitt
:03:50. > :04:01.was grand-standing today. I don't think Mike Nesbitt was
:04:02. > :04:04.grandstanding at all. We discussed it at length and decided together
:04:05. > :04:07.that having seen what was in the platform for Government and looking
:04:08. > :04:13.at the programme ahead, it was the best thing to do. So you didn't have
:04:14. > :04:17.any confidence in your own negotiating skills? You didn't think
:04:18. > :04:21.your team to get a better deal after two weeks. What does that say about
:04:22. > :04:26.the Ulster Unionists impression of themselves? No, it's as we look at
:04:27. > :04:31.it and realised we weren't good to get anywhere. I don't think anybody
:04:32. > :04:35.from the other parties looking at it will get anywhere either. So you
:04:36. > :04:39.took the document at face value. You weren't prepared to put the hard
:04:40. > :04:43.work to try to change it. That is the point, you walked away. But
:04:44. > :04:48.there is nothing that will be changed in it. You don't know that.
:04:49. > :04:52.There are over 35 separate elements in it. It goes from discussions
:04:53. > :04:56.about improving literacy or improving this or that, there is no
:04:57. > :05:00.detail in it at all. That will not change. I know what it was like
:05:01. > :05:06.working in Whitehall. I know what proper programmes look like and that
:05:07. > :05:08.this doesn't look like it. So it wasn't worth putting the effort in
:05:09. > :05:12.to try and make it better. Mike said he wanted to be Education
:05:13. > :05:23.Minister. You said you wanted to be education
:05:24. > :05:28.minister and wanted to make a difference. After a couple of days,
:05:29. > :05:33.you were out. We were not going to be education Minister. So why did
:05:34. > :05:40.Mike Nesbitt honey he was? If you look at the position the DUP were
:05:41. > :05:48.in, we weren't going to be in a position to take the post at all. So
:05:49. > :05:52.you give up on that also. No, we looked very carefully at it. When
:05:53. > :05:54.you look at the detail that was in the Programme for Government and
:05:55. > :06:00.look at what we were trying to do and what we have had over the last
:06:01. > :06:03.nine years, it was very, very weak and we need to have something much
:06:04. > :06:08.more substantial than that. Quite honestly, we don't think anything
:06:09. > :06:13.will change. We will hear from some of your critics tonight. They have
:06:14. > :06:15.said that this was more about your failure to deliver a decent
:06:16. > :06:20.electoral result than anything else. Our electoral results were
:06:21. > :06:28.disappointing in some areas, but we have 16 MLAs, everything is status
:06:29. > :06:32.quo and that is one of the problems. Sinn Fein DUP will be back in
:06:33. > :06:35.Government and we won't see any changes. The economy will not
:06:36. > :06:40.improve, the health service won't come at the education system is
:06:41. > :06:43.getting worse. The whole issues with manufacturing and industry that we
:06:44. > :06:47.are going into at the moment, none of these will improve. We wouldn't
:06:48. > :06:52.be able to influence that when we are in Government. The best way to
:06:53. > :06:56.do that would be to be in opposition. So it is a hopeless
:06:57. > :07:00.situation for Northern Ireland? If you are not going to put the work in
:07:01. > :07:04.to make it better, you will sit on the sidelines and criticise and we
:07:05. > :07:07.are all doomed. No, I'm not saying that. We are going to be an
:07:08. > :07:15.effective opposition and hopefully we will have the Alliance with us as
:07:16. > :07:19.well, and the others, to hold Sinn Fein DUP to account. That has never
:07:20. > :07:21.happened before. I think it is a great development and it shows that
:07:22. > :07:27.democracy is beginning to work in Northern Ireland. That is the first
:07:28. > :07:35.public pitcher get the SDLP into opposition. Are you going to go for
:07:36. > :07:38.the bait? We will set out our stall before the election and we said that
:07:39. > :07:40.we would negotiate on the Programme for Government and that is what we
:07:41. > :08:01.will do. It is a shocking documents. We will
:08:02. > :08:07.be constructive, we will not walk off the job on the first day of
:08:08. > :08:10.trying to improve their document. It will be the guiding framework for
:08:11. > :08:14.Northern Ireland for the next five years, and whether we are in a
:08:15. > :08:18.position of driving at or in a position to hold it to account, we
:08:19. > :08:22.want it to be a better document. It doesn't mention in any way
:08:23. > :08:29.universities, childcare, agriculture. It doesn't mention the
:08:30. > :08:33.past, victims, a lot of things that were ignored in previous
:08:34. > :08:37.negotiations. We will see negotiations through, like we always
:08:38. > :08:40.have, for the people that voted brass and it didn't, because this
:08:41. > :08:48.will be what the game against the next five years. You have been
:08:49. > :09:01.bounced, clear, decisive leadership from Mike Nesbitt. We are not go in
:09:02. > :09:10.to be guided by the new cycles or make Nesbitt. That is a decision for
:09:11. > :09:14.him. We don't understand why he hasn't, when there is a gaping hole
:09:15. > :09:16.in the what the executive are doing, we can say that we attempted to Bill
:09:17. > :09:19.in those issues. How could you expect Mike Nesbitt
:09:20. > :09:23.to sign up to a draft framework that we're led to believe won't be nailed
:09:24. > :09:34.down until December this year? He can see the detail, the small
:09:35. > :09:41.print of a document that he would have to put his name to now. Mike
:09:42. > :09:44.Nesbitt knows that this was a two week process, we will get the
:09:45. > :09:48.overarching framework, and then the specific detail of this we will want
:09:49. > :09:54.to seek consultation of the public on and this will dovetail into the
:09:55. > :09:56.Budget cycle. We are already started an the current financial year. You
:09:57. > :10:05.need to have a an the current financial year. You
:10:06. > :10:10.do that, which is the very criticism that make Nesbitt had about the
:10:11. > :10:14.Programme for Government originally. We are actually doing something that
:10:15. > :10:21.he wanted to be carried out, but now he is criticising it. During the
:10:22. > :10:25.election and the last couple of days, this discussion over the
:10:26. > :10:29.Programme for Government document would take two weeks, the
:10:30. > :10:32.negotiations would take two weeks. Interesting that there were some
:10:33. > :10:37.similarities in your manifestos, but they would be a two week discussion
:10:38. > :10:42.period. That is now searching for seven months, effectively. No, this
:10:43. > :10:48.has always been the plan. Mike doesn't do detail. Does he just not
:10:49. > :10:51.understand it? I would say, yes. You didn't know during the election
:10:52. > :10:57.whether he was going to be in Government or opposition and I think
:10:58. > :11:01.the results demonstrated that that kind of leadership was being given
:11:02. > :11:05.to the community and people didn't know what to believe in him, but
:11:06. > :11:11.they put their trust in the DUP. Nobody is going to say, vote for me,
:11:12. > :11:24.I'm going into opposition. That is exactly what Mike Nesbitt said, not
:11:25. > :11:29.that. Our message was very clear. The Ulster Unionists' message was
:11:30. > :11:32.not. Today is about creating a smoke screen to cover up what was a
:11:33. > :11:39.disastrous election result for the Ulster Unionists. Or it is a
:11:40. > :11:45.considerable political Government to completely wrong foot the DUP and
:11:46. > :11:49.that is why you are crossing over, because he didn't see it coming. I
:11:50. > :11:52.think that is very generous, to think that he has that kind of
:11:53. > :12:02.strategic thinking. This was the worst election result for a van in
:12:03. > :12:05.its history. Even Mike's own expectations were high. He wanted to
:12:06. > :12:10.be in Government but he couldn't carry his own party. He has made it
:12:11. > :12:15.very clear and Steve Aiken has, it is not about we run in the election,
:12:16. > :12:18.it's about saying that the Programme for Government isn't going to be
:12:19. > :12:23.considerably well nailed down for me to be able to back it at this stage,
:12:24. > :12:27.and therefore, the correct option is to go into opposition to hold
:12:28. > :12:30.yourselves into account. That's what he is saying, and some say he would
:12:31. > :12:37.say that after the kind of election he just had. This is an opportunity
:12:38. > :12:42.for the DUP. We will gain an additional department that allows us
:12:43. > :12:49.a greater opportunity to deliver the infrastructure around health,
:12:50. > :12:53.childcare, all the things we took to the election, received a massive
:12:54. > :12:58.endorsement for. We beat the Ulster Unionist Party... We have heard
:12:59. > :13:03.this. Let me just finish on this point. The opposition is something
:13:04. > :13:08.that the DUP created. It was denied to the Assembly by the Ulster
:13:09. > :13:12.Unionist Party in 1998. We use John McCallister's Bill to create the
:13:13. > :13:16.opposition. That is one interpretation. I think maybe John
:13:17. > :13:30.McCallister would take a very different view. How do you interpret
:13:31. > :13:33.his decision? I think it was about taking the headlines, but tomorrow
:13:34. > :13:41.morning you had to wake up and ask what is next. He went into the
:13:42. > :13:45.election touting the importance of this two week period, and he has
:13:46. > :13:48.surrendered at day one. From our point of view, what is on the table
:13:49. > :13:53.will not be good enough on the basis of moving forward, but we have two
:13:54. > :13:57.weeks to talk to the other parties and improve it. But Steve Aiken says
:13:58. > :14:04.it is not worth your while because you won't get any improvement. There
:14:05. > :14:09.is no chance of Alliance going into the agreement without an
:14:10. > :14:16.improvement. So you would not sign up to this draft? Not at this
:14:17. > :14:21.particular point in time. Alliance doesn't qualify for it. Nothing
:14:22. > :14:24.should be assumed or presumed. But you still could choose, because if
:14:25. > :14:25.you had been offered a position in the executive, you could choose to
:14:26. > :14:41.accept it or not. That point might not be realised.
:14:42. > :14:48.But at least we will try to make it work. We will not give up. We have a
:14:49. > :14:52.mandate from the population of Northern Ireland. We have to at
:14:53. > :14:58.least try and make a judgment. If the judgment is we're better off
:14:59. > :15:05.outside, in terms of delivering our agenda then that is the conclusion
:15:06. > :15:13.we will reach. Very quickly, are you suggesting that the negotiations
:15:14. > :15:17.would go on beyond two weeks? It is important we can package this. The
:15:18. > :15:24.programme has to be agreed by the Assembly. That has to be a public
:15:25. > :15:29.consultation. We have to have a budget strategy and economic
:15:30. > :15:33.strategy, all that is ahead of us. This period are loads of to have an
:15:34. > :15:39.agreement or framework to make sure people know where they are going. We
:15:40. > :15:45.are not they yet with this current document. The process will have to
:15:46. > :15:51.go on beyond that to beat period. Anyone who believes otherwise is
:15:52. > :15:59.being naive. Let us bring in someone else. Mark McGuinness described the
:16:00. > :16:06.movement today as... It was a failure in leadership, we had an
:16:07. > :16:10.agreed and -- an election. We now have an opportunity to ensure that
:16:11. > :16:18.the French tart agreement translates into a new start for politics either
:16:19. > :16:24.in the North. -- fresh start. That is the basis upon which Sinn Fein
:16:25. > :16:30.fought the last election, ensuring we have a more effective government
:16:31. > :16:35.and delivery that is what all of -- citizens asked for us as we
:16:36. > :16:41.campaigned recently. So what we saw today was an attempt by a failed
:16:42. > :16:45.political leadership to try and stampede other parties into the
:16:46. > :16:50.negative political space of opposition when those parties have
:16:51. > :16:57.been given a mandate for government. John O'Dowd said at the weekend if
:16:58. > :17:03.you cannot sign up truly, you should go into opposition and that is what
:17:04. > :17:08.Mike Nesbitt has done. So if you believe John O'Dowd, this was a
:17:09. > :17:11.perfectly reasonable strategy. We should Colin White it is, Mike
:17:12. > :17:19.Nesbitt and the leadership never intended to go into government. --
:17:20. > :17:23.call it what it is. They simply use the framework as a fig leaf for June
:17:24. > :17:30.what they always intended to do. That is because of their bad
:17:31. > :17:34.election may have hired and the internal divisions within the Ulster
:17:35. > :17:42.Unionist Party. The real political question is whether the negative
:17:43. > :17:46.situation is going to force the hand of the SDLP and Amy Adams and
:17:47. > :17:53.dragged them into opposition along with them. Let us be clear on this
:17:54. > :17:58.point, these institutions need to be used as a ball work against
:17:59. > :18:04.austerity. They need to be used to grow investment in our economy. The
:18:05. > :18:07.NICE to put our public services on a sustainable footing. The only place
:18:08. > :18:12.to do that is from within government. Parties received a
:18:13. > :18:18.mandate for government and if they step away from that responsibility,
:18:19. > :18:24.they are going nowhere other than into negative opposition. The system
:18:25. > :18:30.at Stormont Amy Adams for that to happen, that is perfectly legitimate
:18:31. > :18:37.and democratic. Absolutely, that is their prerogative and is done on the
:18:38. > :18:41.basis of a reasoned political position. But the Ulster Unionist
:18:42. > :18:48.Party are trying for negative reasons to add staying. We need
:18:49. > :18:52.political stability and our parties working together in a constructive
:18:53. > :18:55.position to try and take our economy forward on behalf of the entire
:18:56. > :19:28.area. This lets achieve what we can by
:19:29. > :19:30.going into opposition. He talked about the platform for government
:19:31. > :19:36.and what we were trying to do. Stephen was talking about we need
:19:37. > :19:41.time to work this out, that would be fine except these parties have been
:19:42. > :19:45.in government for nine years. Whatever -- what other government
:19:46. > :19:50.would you be in a situation with when you would say let us take
:19:51. > :19:55.another five months to sort this out after an election. We are small
:19:56. > :20:03.party and we were squeezed every time... You're still a part of that.
:20:04. > :20:09.We were squeezed and unable to do what we wanted. You were in there
:20:10. > :20:17.for eight years. We still did not manage to achieve what we set out to
:20:18. > :20:21.do. We were squeezed by the DUP... I am slightly baffled as to how you
:20:22. > :20:25.think you can achieve more by being in opposition then you could achieve
:20:26. > :20:32.if you were effective in government which was another option. Because we
:20:33. > :20:36.are going to be able to hold a Sinn Fein, SDLP government to account.
:20:37. > :20:42.Wicked not do previously when we were in government because we were
:20:43. > :20:47.squeezed. We could not let our voice be heard. What do you make of the
:20:48. > :20:50.point that Mike Nesbitt did not understand the process which was
:20:51. > :20:55.about to unfold because there was always going to be a public
:20:56. > :20:58.consultation on this framework document and economic strategies put
:20:59. > :21:05.in place so you should not be surprised that whatever is agreed
:21:06. > :21:09.will go into further consultation? Through years of government to say
:21:10. > :21:12.we have been in government for nine years and now we're going to have a
:21:13. > :21:17.new platform for government and we will take another five months to
:21:18. > :21:22.sort it out with a public consultation. Where is the costing
:21:23. > :21:26.and detailed analysis? Wears the normal thing you would actually seen
:21:27. > :21:31.government in that plan? There is none of that there. So failure on
:21:32. > :21:35.the part of the executives over the past nine years and the Ulster
:21:36. > :21:40.Unionists have made a shrewd move to sidestep things? The Ulster
:21:41. > :21:45.Unionists wherein that Executive for all of those years apart from six
:21:46. > :21:51.months which was a cynical political ploy in the run-up to election.
:21:52. > :21:56.People they how do that was. Having an opposition is something that my
:21:57. > :22:00.party wanted to seek seated. Denied to us by the Ulster Unionists in
:22:01. > :22:06.1998 and now that space will be filmed. That is part of our reform
:22:07. > :22:11.agenda. The Ulster Unionists are now joining the ranks of those that are
:22:12. > :22:15.in the corner to try and hold people to account but criticism is not
:22:16. > :22:21.opposition. It has to come with solutions. Mike has walked away from
:22:22. > :22:25.providing solutions today. We respect the mandate from the SDLP
:22:26. > :22:31.and the Alliance Party. We will take things up with them over the next
:22:32. > :22:36.few weeks. Ultimately it will be a decision for those two parties to
:22:37. > :22:41.take and we will respect whatever decision they come to. What is your
:22:42. > :22:48.thought on that? Do you think David is CEOP will be in government with
:22:49. > :22:57.the DUP? Opposition can be constructive. It exists? Yes, it
:22:58. > :23:02.does. The irony of the Sinn Fein position is that they did exactly
:23:03. > :23:05.that, they walked out of the negotiations on the first day and
:23:06. > :23:11.refused to engage with any programme for government in the south and also
:23:12. > :23:17.I do not think it is correct to talk about this in the same week that the
:23:18. > :23:22.chief constable is told us that the provisional IRA still exist. At the
:23:23. > :23:29.moment the consultation document talks about being people happier,
:23:30. > :23:34.yes we want that but we need something to respond to. The
:23:35. > :23:41.Alliance Party referred to the Justice Ministry... That did not go
:23:42. > :23:48.anywhere, we have to have something specific to hold the parties to. How
:23:49. > :23:55.much more difficult would it be for Sinn Fein to be in opposition, sorry
:23:56. > :24:01.in government only with the DUP? That has to be more of a challenge
:24:02. > :24:08.to Republicans to be sitting simply with the DUP? Now, the bigger
:24:09. > :24:13.picture is we have government in the north and a framework for government
:24:14. > :24:17.which delivers effective change in society for the greater good. That
:24:18. > :24:22.is the key objectives which needs to emerge from this process. I am just
:24:23. > :24:27.saying how much more difficult would it be for Republicans to be sitting
:24:28. > :24:31.in government with just the DUP? Republicans have a proven track
:24:32. > :24:37.record in overcoming difficulties but the point is we need a form of
:24:38. > :24:44.government based upon effective programme for government that we
:24:45. > :24:47.guaranteed to continue the Democratic situation of the society
:24:48. > :24:53.and grow investment in the local community... You are not and sing my
:24:54. > :24:59.question. Does that have to be a five party coalition or a two party
:25:00. > :25:04.coalition even if it is more uncomfortable for Republicans? It
:25:05. > :25:09.would be much part -- better if all of the parties given a mandate for
:25:10. > :25:14.government would take part in government but if they feel unable
:25:15. > :25:20.to do that, then they will fulfil their political leadership, they
:25:21. > :25:28.will step into the agenda set by the Ulster Unionist Party... Let me
:25:29. > :25:33.finish. Very quickly. We need to build peace and stabilise politics
:25:34. > :25:41.and entrench the Good Friday Agreement rather than repudiate it.
:25:42. > :25:46.You have said that... If the logic was applied in the south, you would
:25:47. > :25:50.be in government in the Republic of Ireland but you have refused to do
:25:51. > :25:56.that... One rule for this open one roof of the North? I said if you
:25:57. > :26:00.apply that logic of inclusion in government and applied that to the
:26:01. > :26:06.size, you would have gone into government in the south and you did
:26:07. > :26:09.not do that? Sinn Fein will be in government in the 26 counties but
:26:10. > :26:15.our focus is to ensure stable government is delivered in the
:26:16. > :26:19.North. It is quite clear that an number of the other representatives
:26:20. > :26:22.in your studio have completely failed to understand the process
:26:23. > :26:31.we're trying to develop year to ensure there is an effective, robust
:26:32. > :26:38.and very democratic process... It is ironic that the UUP are walking away
:26:39. > :26:41.from the process to develop and design a government essentially
:26:42. > :26:52.followed by the SDLP... We have to leave it there. Thank you. Does this
:26:53. > :26:57.turn on their head the agreement that was reached in 1998 with the
:26:58. > :27:01.Good Friday Agreement? Is it necessary and desirable that all
:27:02. > :27:07.five parties are in government? It does not. We will not be pressurised
:27:08. > :27:12.by the DUP your Sinn Fein. We will take our own decisions based on what
:27:13. > :27:17.is best for the Alliance Party and Northern Ireland which coincide. The
:27:18. > :27:27.Good Friday Agreement has to involve -- evolve. It's about having an
:27:28. > :27:31.alternative and providing proper criticism of government. We have
:27:32. > :27:35.seen six months of the Ulster Unionists in opposition and they
:27:36. > :27:37.failed to do that. I suspect there is a lot more talking to get out of
:27:38. > :27:40.this. So much has happened over the past
:27:41. > :27:43.week that the political parties have had little time to analyse
:27:44. > :27:45.fully their performances But that hasn't stopped political
:27:46. > :27:49.pundits reflecting on why the nationalist vote fell
:27:50. > :27:50.by more than 5%. It's a pattern that's continued
:27:51. > :27:53.from the last Westminister election, and it's provided much food
:27:54. > :27:55.for thought for both But what does it tell us
:27:56. > :27:58.about nationalist voters? And, if the trend continues,
:27:59. > :28:01.how might it shape politics Enda McClafferty has
:28:02. > :28:14.been finding out. It has been a week of quiet
:28:15. > :28:17.reflection for politicians. They have been taking stock after an
:28:18. > :28:22.election which brought little change. A few familiar faces were
:28:23. > :28:26.cast aside and the seating arrangements at Stormont remain
:28:27. > :28:31.largely the same. We did have some ripples of discontent but nothing to
:28:32. > :28:34.trouble the big parties. Is there an undercurrent lurking beneath the
:28:35. > :28:43.surface which has now started to bite? The overall national sport has
:28:44. > :28:48.been declining. If it was a one-off, it could be ignored but it is
:28:49. > :28:51.apartment and the Sinn Fein and the SDLP cannot ignore it. The
:28:52. > :28:57.electorate is telling them something. The nationalist vote that
:28:58. > :29:04.by 5% but that does not tell the full story. The SDLP vote dropped in
:29:05. > :29:10.15 of the 18 constituencies but Sinn Fein saw the vote go down as well.
:29:11. > :29:14.So why is the national sport continuing to fall? Are they just
:29:15. > :29:20.stay at home are RIB opting to take their vote elsewhere? Nationals are
:29:21. > :29:25.demanding more, there is a heightened level of expectation
:29:26. > :29:33.which is not being satisfied. -- Nationalists. Sinn Fein SDLP have to
:29:34. > :29:38.address this. They look tired and jaded, short on ideas. Sinn Fein
:29:39. > :29:45.would say was a good election for them.
:29:46. > :29:51.It was very clear that this time they were not going to get as many
:29:52. > :29:55.seats as they plot and it would be a case of minimising the losses. And
:29:56. > :30:00.that is what the party tried to do in West Belfast, but they failed to
:30:01. > :30:17.stop people taking one of their five seats. Their vote fell by 11.5%. The
:30:18. > :30:31.SDLP's. That also. Their combined vote dipped, this time costing the
:30:32. > :30:41.SL DPE a seat. He has been waiting a long time to sing his victory song.
:30:42. > :30:48.It has been many years since a victory and his method hasn't
:30:49. > :30:54.changed. The highest levels of unemployment for any town on this
:30:55. > :31:01.island is here. This manner members that battle well. He says that his
:31:02. > :31:08.victory sends out a strong message. He didn't deliver the jobs, the
:31:09. > :31:11.University, the roads. He told us that the last election that these
:31:12. > :31:19.things were already delivered and Martin McGuinness has said that he
:31:20. > :31:24.should have done. He never left Derry, he still living in Derry. I
:31:25. > :31:27.think those issues were very pertinent and strong within the
:31:28. > :31:37.city, particularly. And there was also a slight dip in the nationalist
:31:38. > :31:46.vote in Tyrone. It was a strategy to pursue a different person who is,
:31:47. > :31:50.and this was a man who paid the price. That's politics. Nobody
:31:51. > :31:53.expects to have an elected role in politics for their whole life. And
:31:54. > :32:00.still young and I think there a lot I want to achieve what about the
:32:01. > :32:05.Sinn Fein vote overall? What is going wrong up there with Sinn Fein
:32:06. > :32:12.and the electorate? Didn't think that anything is necessarily going
:32:13. > :32:17.wrong. I think we would have had the same number of MLAs if we could have
:32:18. > :32:21.secured that last seat. But percentage vote is down. That may
:32:22. > :32:28.be, but the vote of other parties, all of the parties is down. We did
:32:29. > :32:32.accept that we had a poor election. The SDLP is still chasing down a
:32:33. > :32:39.blood bag which they know is still out there, but just can't reel in.
:32:40. > :32:46.The party could count on a massive but when this woman was in, so why
:32:47. > :32:52.do she think that so many boaters have deserted the SDLP? Might it be
:32:53. > :32:59.that nationalists now I now satisfied with their lot? I think
:33:00. > :33:03.there is a bit of that, but it's not just that. I believe, if you look at
:33:04. > :33:09.the Good Friday Agreement, we had the largest nationalist turnout ever
:33:10. > :33:14.in the 80s, and there was huge expectations at that time. We were
:33:15. > :33:17.going to have these north and south bodies bringing the country
:33:18. > :33:21.together, and nothing of that has happened. There hasn't even been
:33:22. > :33:25.reconciliation in the north. There is a lot of disappointment and
:33:26. > :33:30.disillusion and a lot are fed up with politics, because it's not seem
:33:31. > :33:34.to deliver. The SDLP crisis is a fundamental one. They don't appear
:33:35. > :33:38.to have a sense of identity that resonates with the nationalist
:33:39. > :33:44.community. Their message is not one that connects, and because of that,
:33:45. > :33:47.they are increasingly becoming irrelevant to neither nationalists.
:33:48. > :33:50.Sinn Fein and the SDLP are facing a big challenge. That's because the
:33:51. > :33:55.pool of seats in the Assembly next time round will be smaller. The
:33:56. > :34:00.constituencies are dropping from six seats. That may well concentrate
:34:01. > :34:06.minds, but it could also squeeze the nationalist vote further. On the
:34:07. > :34:06.challenges that lie ahead for nationalism.
:34:07. > :34:09.Let's hear what the Professors make of today's big
:34:10. > :34:12.Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford are with me.
:34:13. > :34:15.Did you expect Mike Nesbitt to jump so soon?
:34:16. > :34:26.No, not today. I think he was wrong to stretch it out. That said,
:34:27. > :34:31.parties who wish to go to official opposition have to make a decision
:34:32. > :34:35.towards the end of June, so it was a limited decision. I think it is a
:34:36. > :34:44.bit premature. I would have waited a few days. He could have waited until
:34:45. > :34:48.at least the end of the week. Oh, I think he really cut the feet under
:34:49. > :34:51.the others, without dynamic that is going on in the studio. They were
:34:52. > :34:57.feeling that they had been pushed into a corner. Declan Kearney was
:34:58. > :35:03.very negative about it, called it a negative political space and a lack
:35:04. > :35:09.of leadership. Why? Do you think it was a smart move? Yes come he has as
:35:10. > :35:13.a Leader of the Opposition. He has pushed them down a road and he is
:35:14. > :35:17.basically saying, how can we campaign and say that the Government
:35:18. > :35:25.we have is dysfunctional and yet we still want to be part of it. Does it
:35:26. > :35:31.make life very uncomfortable for the DUP and Sinn Fein in particular? It
:35:32. > :35:36.does, especially if the DUP and Alliance parties follow suit. On
:35:37. > :35:39.that basis, they will have a third of the Assembly between them and
:35:40. > :35:47.that would be a considerable batch within the chamber, no doubt, on
:35:48. > :35:50.some issues supported in the corner, the new critics. But even the
:35:51. > :35:53.imagery will be different because the Government will have to sit
:35:54. > :35:59.together for some it is a very artificial thing that we have at the
:36:00. > :36:05.moment. Do you seriously see them sitting side-by-side? They will have
:36:06. > :36:07.to because they are the government and the dynamic is that this
:36:08. > :36:11.artificial infighting is really shown up for what it is because they
:36:12. > :36:14.are agreeing on policies and putting them forward together. The
:36:15. > :36:18.opposition will be able to say that they have a different view and the
:36:19. > :36:22.shadow opposition person will be there. I understand their fear about
:36:23. > :36:26.being sidelined and being a relevant, but I think that if it
:36:27. > :36:32.properly worked out, they will be able to make a completely different
:36:33. > :36:36.dynamic in the Assembly. Do you think the seating arrangements would
:36:37. > :36:44.change, or do you think the other parties would resist it. The optics
:36:45. > :36:48.would be very interesting. It would change the atmosphere completely,
:36:49. > :36:59.but I don't think they will. I think the SDLP might go into opposition
:37:00. > :37:03.and the Alliance won't. That would be my view at the moment. But
:37:04. > :37:07.whoever constitutes the opposition, they are going to need resources,
:37:08. > :37:14.which they will get, they will need to make an articulate alternative
:37:15. > :37:19.set of proposals on whatever the policy area is. They have also got
:37:20. > :37:23.supply days every year, ten of them, and they can bring their own
:37:24. > :37:26.business to the floor, to make an alternative case. So if they are
:37:27. > :37:31.constructive, they can make a good thing. But they had been in the
:37:32. > :37:36.executive, they had been sidelined and richly humiliated. If you think
:37:37. > :37:44.of the teacher colleges, evidence was gathered and then simply because
:37:45. > :37:48.of local issues, they were bounced. This is the temporary political
:37:49. > :37:50.leadership to say, we want something completely different, and the
:37:51. > :37:58.electorate have said they want to see something different, delivery.
:37:59. > :38:13.If he did go into opposition, they would have to allocate the shadow
:38:14. > :38:15.departments between them. That's it from The View
:38:16. > :38:17.for this week. Join me for Sunday Politics
:38:18. > :38:19.at 11:35, here on BBC One. Making predictions is, of course,
:38:20. > :38:21.a dangerous business. We've had Gary Lineker's underpants
:38:22. > :38:23.promise, Paddy Ashdown eating his chocolate hat,
:38:24. > :38:25.and now it's the turn of a close friend of The View
:38:26. > :38:48.to bite the bullet. And the mostly, someone said they
:38:49. > :38:56.would sing in Clare Bayley got elected.
:38:57. > :39:06.# I write my own stuff, some think it's guff
:39:07. > :39:15.# So what if I made a prediction then
:39:16. > :39:30.# Clare Bayley won the election # I am what I am #.
:39:31. > :39:35.Experience every twist and turn with BBC Sport NI...