:00:00. > :00:00.You can also keep updated with News Online.
:00:00. > :00:00.But now let's join Mark Carruthers for a special edition of The View.
:00:07. > :00:09.Well, counting is underway for one of the most important political
:00:10. > :00:12.decisions to be taken in a generation.
:00:13. > :00:15.Tonight on The View, we look back at the sometimes
:00:16. > :00:18.bruising EU referendum campaign - and ahead to what the political
:00:19. > :00:41.landscape could look like when we wake up tomorrow morning...
:00:42. > :00:46.It's one of those special nights in politics -
:00:47. > :00:50.potentially seismic for the future United Kingdom.
:00:51. > :00:53.We're only hours away from knowing whether the future of the country
:00:54. > :00:57.will be inside or outside the European Union.
:00:58. > :01:05.Counting is underway across eight centres in Northern Ireland
:01:06. > :01:07.and turnout is reported to be up on last month.
:01:08. > :01:10.In the studio I'll be looking back on a lengthy and lively campaign
:01:11. > :01:14.Have we seen the positive politicisation of the UK population
:01:15. > :01:16.or has it been a coarse, divisive debate whose
:01:17. > :01:21.And calling it as they see it in Commentators' Corner,
:01:22. > :01:23.the unique political union that is Chris Donnelly
:01:24. > :01:33.So - the votes have been cast, the campaigners can draw breath
:01:34. > :01:36.for the first time in weeks and the post mortem begins.
:01:37. > :01:38.Tonight we're attempting to capture the mood -
:01:39. > :01:40.and to imagine how things might unfold in the days
:01:41. > :01:45.But first a reminder of a campaign which saw some of the biggest names
:01:46. > :01:47.in British politics coming here to talk to voters -
:01:48. > :01:50.in the only part of the UK that has a land border
:01:51. > :02:00.Eye will go to Parliament, and propose that the British people
:02:01. > :02:18.decide the future, in Europe. As members of the European Union,
:02:19. > :02:25.you cannot have any sovereignty. I think we need to lift our eyes, see
:02:26. > :02:34.growth markets, buy across the planet, and the sad news, it is not
:02:35. > :02:40.in Europe. We have privileged access, to market of 500 million
:02:41. > :02:48.people, the single market. We think it isn't the best to Remain.
:02:49. > :02:56.Interest, on balance, he is going to be voting to leave. I believe it
:02:57. > :03:01.would be a historic mistake to do anything, that could risk
:03:02. > :03:06.destabilising the multilayered constitutional settlement, for the
:03:07. > :03:12.stability of Northern Ireland. And we have said, to the Leave campaign,
:03:13. > :03:17.you have fundamental questions about Northern Ireland. To pray ministers,
:03:18. > :03:22.who know the importance of the peace process, to suggest that porting and
:03:23. > :03:29.abundance of direction would undermine that, it is scandalous.
:03:30. > :03:31.The commitment of people to the Northern Ireland settlement, and
:03:32. > :03:38.democratic means to determine the future, I think that commitment is
:03:39. > :03:46.rock solid. As Britain quits the European Union, that becomes the
:03:47. > :04:00.physical border with the whole EU. Extra taxs, custom checks,
:04:01. > :04:06.restrictions on people moving to Ireland. The choice is in your
:04:07. > :04:10.hands. My guests tonight have been
:04:11. > :04:13.at the coal-face of the campaign over recent months -
:04:14. > :04:15.either making the case for your vote, or examining
:04:16. > :04:20.the arguments raised by both camps. The DUP MP Sammy Wilson and the SDLP
:04:21. > :04:24.MLA Claire Hanna have been very Patrick Mulholland is from NIPSA,
:04:25. > :04:29.which went against the trade union grain in advocating a Leave vote
:04:30. > :04:32.and David Phinnemore is a Professor of European Politics
:04:33. > :04:51.at Queen's University. I think we always knew that it was
:04:52. > :04:56.going to be a uphill struggle, you had the machinery of government,
:04:57. > :05:00.proposing that we should Remain at the European Union, the government
:05:01. > :05:08.was using taxpayer money to good propaganda out, against the rules,
:05:09. > :05:15.and you had the scare campaign, not just from reading members of the
:05:16. > :05:20.government, the business communities, and foreign statesmen,
:05:21. > :05:27.telling us outlandish stories. That is the background. It says as though
:05:28. > :05:39.you are beginning to admit defeat? I think on the positive side, for the
:05:40. > :05:42.Leave campaign, it had far more passion, vision for the future,
:05:43. > :05:50.people more likely to vote, and I think the result is going to depend
:05:51. > :05:55.upon Google voters out best. I think we were more motivated than Remain.
:05:56. > :06:09.If that is the case, you will have won? We do not know yet. I think it
:06:10. > :06:18.is the Beatles. Did Leave have more passion? I do not think so. We will
:06:19. > :06:24.find out, but the polls, suggesting that Remain has one. Those sound
:06:25. > :06:28.like excuses, getting in early. I do not recognise the campaign that he
:06:29. > :06:34.has characterised. It has been a casualty, over the last few months,
:06:35. > :06:44.but that is an accusation, people would seem levelled at the Leave
:06:45. > :06:52.campaign. We did not predict WW3. The end of the peace process. All of
:06:53. > :07:04.the nonsense, from Remain... Even minutes, after these things were
:07:05. > :07:12.debunked by fact checkers, about the NHS, pinning complex problems on
:07:13. > :07:23.journey Foreigner and the EU. Absolute nonsense. Do you think
:07:24. > :07:30.facts were a casualty? Absolutely. Both of the campaigns? I think it
:07:31. > :07:34.was more all Leave. The understanding of how the European
:07:35. > :07:38.Union operates was not explained thoroughly by Remain, I do not think
:07:39. > :07:45.we have the level of understanding of political systems, that we should
:07:46. > :07:49.do. David Cameron, the Prime Minister, and George Oz, the
:07:50. > :07:54.Chancellor, would have to understand the European Union, because they are
:07:55. > :08:01.at the heart of government? I think they do understand, but problems,
:08:02. > :08:06.have been blamed at Brussels, as though it has been some were alien,
:08:07. > :08:12.coming through clearly at the campaign. Forgetting that the United
:08:13. > :08:17.Kingdom has been a key part of the decision-making process. It is the
:08:18. > :08:26.MEPs and council, not the commission. Reluctance, that the
:08:27. > :08:32.Prime Minister could not afford to spill out, the interference from
:08:33. > :08:37.Brussels. What do you mean by Brussels? That is the European
:08:38. > :08:44.Union, the United Kingdom government sets on the council. It is part of
:08:45. > :08:50.all the decision-making process, it is not taken by Brussels, taken at
:08:51. > :09:01.Brussels, but by representatives of national government. Like the
:09:02. > :09:12.assembly, and Belfast. People can explain that. NIPSA adopted the
:09:13. > :09:17.position, at odds with trade unions? You think that was the correct thing
:09:18. > :09:24.to do? The ordinary person in the street has been unimpressed by both
:09:25. > :09:32.the official Remain campaign, and the Leave campaign, exaggerating
:09:33. > :09:36.statistics, fluff key issues, and unimpressive. What we have been
:09:37. > :09:40.trying to do, as the union, trying to introduce the different
:09:41. > :09:47.discussion into this scenario. We want a discussion about the Remain
:09:48. > :09:52.the action of austerity, or the Leave version, we want something
:09:53. > :09:58.different. We want an economic solution, that is possible. The
:09:59. > :10:06.socialist economy, possible. We want to open up that discussion. This
:10:07. > :10:13.campaign has been usual. -- useful. We want to look forward, not back?
:10:14. > :10:18.At Northern Ireland, we of course want to look for work. We want to
:10:19. > :10:23.see something different, than what the assembly has been presenting,
:10:24. > :10:29.the trade union movement, as a whole, wants to move. But the trade
:10:30. > :10:40.union movement does not speak with one voice? NIPSA out of step? The
:10:41. > :10:45.trade union movement has about vengeance of opinions, I think about
:10:46. > :10:50.ten trade unions on the other side of the argument. We have a
:10:51. > :10:53.discussion, with in the movement, about the future but you have the
:10:54. > :10:58.difference between the discussion that has taken place with the trade
:10:59. > :11:01.unions, and the politicians, frankly, the discussions that
:11:02. > :11:10.politicians have been having, has been a very versions of austerity.
:11:11. > :11:19.How much of our problem, did that pose? Socialist party, effectively?
:11:20. > :11:26.Having a relationship with the union movement, but speaking with forked
:11:27. > :11:30.tongue? The vast majority of the trade union movement was supporting
:11:31. > :11:37.Remain, despite boiling it down to one issue. People do have concerns.
:11:38. > :11:40.But the European Union has process more transparent, than if it was
:11:41. > :11:48.just being delivered by the United Kingdom. You talk about economic
:11:49. > :11:54.solutions, you want to throw it all up, it took a rigid ideology, that
:11:55. > :12:05.ultimately would have damaged the United Kingdom economy, and left
:12:06. > :12:10.considerably less. It is about the destruction, of public services. You
:12:11. > :12:14.start from the position, that trade with the United States is
:12:15. > :12:25.fundamentally wrong. The privatisation of public services. T
:12:26. > :12:28.tip, you address that? We said that you have to have the trade
:12:29. > :12:36.partnership, preferably negotiated across the European Union. The
:12:37. > :12:40.centre left at Europe. It has concessions about having that
:12:41. > :12:46.discussion. You going to answer the question.
:12:47. > :12:58.Quick word because I do not want to get bogged down in the tip. Europe
:12:59. > :13:06.has made the TTIP process better. You don't even know what is in it...
:13:07. > :13:09.The secrecy... It is better negotiated than with Boris Johnson
:13:10. > :13:16.and Michael Gove. To what extent is this an issue if there is a Remain
:13:17. > :13:20.vote and if that's weeks ahead even by a small percentage? This issue
:13:21. > :13:25.will have to be resolved and there is a huge divergence of opinion on
:13:26. > :13:28.the ground on the best way forward? Yes, the huge diverging. I think we
:13:29. > :13:35.will see possibly a moderation of the support for TTIP. Just to
:13:36. > :13:38.explain, this is the transatlantic trade partnership. Yes, on which
:13:39. > :13:42.there has been a huge amount of criticism, levelled at some of the
:13:43. > :13:47.clauses in it, about what they might mean for public services and what it
:13:48. > :13:49.might mean in terms of the sovereignty of states to take
:13:50. > :13:52.decisions about how they run their public services. I think the level
:13:53. > :13:59.of opposition which we have seen across Europe has seen the European
:14:00. > :14:04.union row back from its initial position. There is even a question
:14:05. > :14:08.around now over whether TTIP will go ahead. What is your gut feeling this
:14:09. > :14:13.evening? Were beginning to see some returns from Bala boxes in Northern
:14:14. > :14:18.Ireland, suggesting high turnout, -- ballot boxes. Suggesting not so high
:14:19. > :14:23.in Nationalist areas as union areas, so I don't know what you read into
:14:24. > :14:29.that? These suggestions come with a health warning but they do suggest
:14:30. > :14:36.Remain make shade it. What do you think? I think Remain may shade it.
:14:37. > :14:40.52, 53, I think that is probably the level we are looking at, based upon
:14:41. > :14:44.what the polls have been seeing. And does that put the issue to bed for a
:14:45. > :14:48.generation or does it simply renew the argument? I do not think it puts
:14:49. > :14:54.it to bed at all because I think it is very clear that what we have seen
:14:55. > :14:57.is the rise of Ukip within the UK, clear Eurosceptic views expressed,
:14:58. > :15:00.and there is a lot of public opinion out there which is clearly against
:15:01. > :15:04.the European Union or certainly questioning the nature of UK member
:15:05. > :15:11.ship of it and I think even the political support which exists for
:15:12. > :15:15.the Leave campaign, that will not go away. I spoke to a well-known
:15:16. > :15:19.Brexiteer earlier this week, a well-known figure in your party, the
:15:20. > :15:25.DUP, as it happens. He says he does not expect to be on the winning side
:15:26. > :15:30.tomorrow morning. He was predicting 57% to 43% in favour of Remain. Now,
:15:31. > :15:36.do you still maintain this line of five or six minutes ago that you
:15:37. > :15:42.will just shade it? I am still optimistic on the basis of what I
:15:43. > :15:46.have seen, and, yes, I also need to be realistic and that is why in my
:15:47. > :15:50.opening remarks, which you describe as excuses, I was being realistic
:15:51. > :15:53.and I know what we're up against. But I have the benefit of
:15:54. > :15:57.campaigning not just in Northern Ireland but I have campaigned in
:15:58. > :16:02.quite a few areas in England as well, spoken at rallies and meetings
:16:03. > :16:05.in England. And I know the strength of feeling there is there as well.
:16:06. > :16:11.Do you have a strong feeling about this? You were always a committed
:16:12. > :16:14.Brexiteer? Yes, I was. One of the first campaigns I was ever involved
:16:15. > :16:19.in when I first got involved in politics was the referendum of 1975
:16:20. > :16:25.when we were making the decision of whether we should go into the
:16:26. > :16:29.European Community, at that stage. Your credentials are good. David,
:16:30. > :16:34.you have written articles suggesting the DUP has been less than clear,
:16:35. > :16:38.even as recently as 12 months ago? Yes, I would see even more recently.
:16:39. > :16:43.What has been striking is when you went into these elections, you have
:16:44. > :16:48.the DUP clearly for Leave, barely mentioning this Leave issue in the
:16:49. > :16:50.literature. There is no other situation where we have a draft
:16:51. > :16:54.programme for government which does not mention the referendum and the
:16:55. > :16:59.possibility there could be a Brexit, and my concern would be, if it is
:17:00. > :17:03.Leave, and the UK Government has to move quickly to renegotiate, or
:17:04. > :17:07.negotiate the terms of leaving, what will Northern Ireland's position be?
:17:08. > :17:13.What is our actual position? What would we want from a negotiation
:17:14. > :17:17.about leaving? Firstly, for the Assembly elections, as far as that
:17:18. > :17:20.is concerned, it was a conscious decision to divorce laws from the EU
:17:21. > :17:26.referendum, because the issues... That may have been a bad mistake. I
:17:27. > :17:30.do not think it was, because funnily enough around the doors, and I
:17:31. > :17:34.campaigned extensively there myself, the issue raised most often was the
:17:35. > :17:42.issue of the EU referendum, because it was so much in the news. As far
:17:43. > :17:45.as what happens if the UK does decide to leave, and then of course
:17:46. > :17:50.there will be on input from Northern Ireland, and there are many issues,
:17:51. > :17:56.many of which we want dealt with, they will be coming to the rest...
:17:57. > :18:03.David, want to come back? We knew the referendum was coming. Scotland,
:18:04. > :18:06.they had an inquiry, will they had -- Wales had an inquiry. The
:18:07. > :18:11.Assembly he did nothing. We had to rely on a select report to give some
:18:12. > :18:15.indication of what would be the implications of a Brexit. If it is
:18:16. > :18:21.narrow one way or the other, Patrick Holland, what happens next? I must
:18:22. > :18:27.say my feeling is it is likely to be Remain, that is most likely now --
:18:28. > :18:32.Patrick Mulholland. To your disfavour? I would like tomorrow for
:18:33. > :18:38.David Cameron to not be the Prime Minister any more. So the 52, 50 3%
:18:39. > :18:41.mentioned would suit you well? If I can finish my sentence, I would like
:18:42. > :18:45.to see Cameron gone tomorrow and the Tory party deeply weakened by the
:18:46. > :18:53.outcome of this referendum -- 53%. If it is a Leave vote, we are in an
:18:54. > :18:56.entirely new and different situation altogether. I think one of the
:18:57. > :18:59.things that will develop will be a discussion about what the future
:19:00. > :19:05.looks like and, let's be clear about this, I do not think I share much
:19:06. > :19:10.ground with Sammy as to what it should look like... If it is 52 or
:19:11. > :19:14.53% and there is a mortal wound inflicted on David Cameron that
:19:15. > :19:17.you're hoping for, what then? What is the scenario that should unfold,
:19:18. > :19:23.from your point of view's the best case scenario? I think you're then
:19:24. > :19:27.left with a situation of a deeply wounded Government, deeply wounded
:19:28. > :19:30.Tory party, and you have people feeling they can exercise some real
:19:31. > :19:35.change in society when they get it... How will they do that? We are
:19:36. > :19:40.in fixed term election so it will be another four years theoretical and
:19:41. > :19:42.for the next election. I think an election will be unavoidable if you
:19:43. > :19:55.have seen the state of the Tory party... But you need to back it.
:19:56. > :19:59.You're shaking your head, Claire. You're talking about party politics,
:20:00. > :20:02.how we can strike the ball, and I think your campaign position ignore
:20:03. > :20:06.the impact it would have on our economy and the public services and
:20:07. > :20:10.servants you are supposed to represent, so that is truly worrying
:20:11. > :20:17.-- strike the ball. And also that it will embolden the hard right. Hang
:20:18. > :20:21.on, Sammy Wilson You're speaking about the issue of the Assembly
:20:22. > :20:25.election, and I think you're right, but that ground campaign, we did
:20:26. > :20:29.incorporate that into our Assembly campaign because it is fundamental
:20:30. > :20:32.to Northern Ireland's future, but I think the ground campaign did lack
:20:33. > :20:35.that these are fundamental issues and people had specific questions
:20:36. > :20:39.and argument who wanted to tease out that you could not do in the media
:20:40. > :20:42.or a leaflet and I think many of the parties, for them, the growing
:20:43. > :20:46.campaign did not turn up. And people were knackered because leaflets do
:20:47. > :20:51.not pay for themselves and I think that was a problem. That view from
:20:52. > :20:58.very a couple of weeks ago, the suggestion that a Leave might be
:20:59. > :21:01.quite useful for a negotiating hand for the Government in future with
:21:02. > :21:04.European Union. We may be out, but we could negotiate from a position
:21:05. > :21:09.of strength get back in again. Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of
:21:10. > :21:16.your tuning in, he warned David Cameron that out is out. Do you
:21:17. > :21:21.accept that? -- the head of the European Commission. I would hope
:21:22. > :21:25.that out is out. That is what people in the United Kingdom will be voting
:21:26. > :21:31.on, to stay in the EU, or to leave. Given all that we have said about
:21:32. > :21:36.the dangers of staying in the EU and the detrimental effect it has on our
:21:37. > :21:41.economy, on our democracy, on our standard of living, on the tensions
:21:42. > :21:45.it has caused in society, open immigration, why would we want to go
:21:46. > :21:50.back into such an arrangement? And the EU, of course, has proven itself
:21:51. > :21:53.to be totally unreformable anyway so I do not think there is any point
:21:54. > :21:57.hoping it will change. The only change we can see in the EU, and
:21:58. > :22:07.this is what worries me after the referendum, if we do stay in,...
:22:08. > :22:11.David Fenimore, it would be out? I think it would be but it is not up
:22:12. > :22:16.to Jean-Claude Blanc to decide that -- David Phinnemore. They would be
:22:17. > :22:19.negotiation. I could see the UK Government possibly moving towards
:22:20. > :22:26.Leave over the two-year period have to negotiate in an possibly have
:22:27. > :22:31.second thoughts. We cannot rule that out. -- Jean-Claude Juncker. But
:22:32. > :22:34.what unfold at that point. Do you think there could be a mortal wound
:22:35. > :22:38.inflicted on David Cameron, the Tories could go into meltdown, there
:22:39. > :22:42.could be a General Election sooner rather than later and Jeremy Corbyn
:22:43. > :22:46.to be in number ten? Or is that fanciful on the part of Patrick
:22:47. > :22:48.Mulholland? I do not see that immediately. I think there are
:22:49. > :22:52.interesting dynamics in the Tory party itself. I think a lot will
:22:53. > :22:57.depend on the scale of the victory, assuring that it is one, for a
:22:58. > :23:01.Remain. Are we all sitting up all night? We are. Well, good.
:23:02. > :23:03.Thanks to you all, and through the night,
:23:04. > :23:05.all the results from the 18 constituencies here will be toted
:23:06. > :23:08.up, and the overall Northern Ireland result will be announced
:23:09. > :23:10.at the Titanic Exhibition Centre - from where our political editor,
:23:11. > :23:13.Mark, the four Belfast constituencies are also
:23:14. > :23:17.Have the tally people been able to tell you anything
:23:18. > :23:31.Granted it is in the early stage. Well, not really. I think it is a
:23:32. > :23:35.little too early in terms of the breakdown. They are both exuding
:23:36. > :23:40.confidence but whilst it is very busy here, a lot of ballot boxes
:23:41. > :23:45.coming in, a lot of them being opened up, the verification process
:23:46. > :23:48.underway and the counting teams actually getting into the counting,
:23:49. > :23:55.you cannot really extrapolate too much. For instance, there were quite
:23:56. > :23:58.a few Leave votes in the East Belfast area earlier on and maybe
:23:59. > :24:02.campaigners will take heart from that but a lot of that was to do
:24:03. > :24:05.with the geography, just that the inner-city loyalist areas that
:24:06. > :24:09.perhaps have gone Leave, may be closer to the centre than some of
:24:10. > :24:14.the more leafy areas further out. So in terms of how it breaks down it is
:24:15. > :24:19.too early to see. I think we can predict the turnout will be up on
:24:20. > :24:23.the 55% we saw in last month's Assembly poll. Certainly there are
:24:24. > :24:28.some areas that have hit 70%, for certain ballot boxes anyway, so we
:24:29. > :24:33.would not be surprised if it were as much as perhaps ten percentage
:24:34. > :24:37.points up on that Assembly poll we had in May. Sammy Wilson says he is
:24:38. > :24:43.optimistic Remain can win although it will be tight. Our other guest
:24:44. > :24:49.tonight, Patrick Mulholland, who is for Leave, still thinks it will be
:24:50. > :24:52.Remain, and Claire Hanna and David Phinnemore agree with that. Do you
:24:53. > :24:55.have a gut feeling, looking at social media and speaking to people
:24:56. > :25:01.on the ground, on how things make on hold over the next six to eight
:25:02. > :25:06.hours? This is a time when gut feelings can often let you down. I
:25:07. > :25:10.think this will have a few ups and downs as we see the different areas
:25:11. > :25:14.coming in. Obviously Northern Ireland, with a quarter of a million
:25:15. > :25:18.voters, every vote counts here, as everywhere else, but there are 46
:25:19. > :25:21.million voters in total, so I think there will be different peaks and
:25:22. > :25:24.troughs as we perhaps get the East coast of England and some of the
:25:25. > :25:28.Northern areas that are thought to be strong Leave areas coming in and
:25:29. > :25:33.the likes of Bristol, the South, the south-west, stronger Remain areas
:25:34. > :25:38.coming in. I think what we will be analysing in terms of local results
:25:39. > :25:45.here, it will be about whether there is a Unionist or Nationalists
:25:46. > :25:53.divide. Well Unionists be voting Leave and Nationalistss Remain, or
:25:54. > :25:58.given that we have the Ulster Unionist s recommending Remain, will
:25:59. > :26:01.that have an effect? That is the kind of thing we will be analysing
:26:02. > :26:06.but I think it will be a mob's game to call right now and I am not such
:26:07. > :26:13.a mild as to call it. You can forgive me for trying, of course --
:26:14. > :26:17.a mug's game and I am not such a mug is to call it. The numbers concern
:26:18. > :26:20.for Northern Ireland are very interesting and fascinating from our
:26:21. > :26:25.point of view but that rod that will feed into the UK wide picture and
:26:26. > :26:32.our figures will go into Nick overall figures to decide whether
:26:33. > :26:37.leave or remain -- raw data. Yes, there will be a Northern Ireland
:26:38. > :26:40.result that will probably be released around 4:30pm in the
:26:41. > :26:43.morning but that will not be the end of the matter. It is all down to
:26:44. > :26:47.what happens on a UK wide basis and we are thinking that result will
:26:48. > :26:54.come sometime around 7am, so it really is a case of how take things
:26:55. > :26:58.are across-the-board where England will make up the bulk of the voters,
:26:59. > :27:01.on whether Northern Ireland, Scotland or Wales will make a
:27:02. > :27:08.difference. It could be fascinating. If you get so tight that England is
:27:09. > :27:12.leaning towards Leave and, say, Scotland pushes it into the Remain
:27:13. > :27:16.camp. You would think Northern Ireland would probably be slightly
:27:17. > :27:19.more Remain than Leave but, again, difficult to call percentages at
:27:20. > :27:22.this early stage. Yes, what happens in Scotland will certainly be
:27:23. > :27:24.fascinating. The whole thing is fascinating. Thank you very much,
:27:25. > :27:26.Mark, for that. Lots more from you throughout
:27:27. > :27:28.the night, of course, but let's go over for a final word
:27:29. > :27:36.with our commentators tonight, Good evening to you both. Thank you
:27:37. > :27:40.for being with us. It is one of those nights, isn't it, whether
:27:41. > :27:45.political anoraks will be setting up with their hot drinks they choose to
:27:46. > :27:50.keep them going through the wee small hours? And it is very early,
:27:51. > :27:55.as Mark said, in terms of counting the votes right now and he will not
:27:56. > :27:56.be such a mug as to call it. Some people have called it already.
:27:57. > :27:59.It's very early in terms of counting the votes at the moment,
:28:00. > :28:01.but what's your reading of the situation at this stage?
:28:02. > :28:09.I think the Remain side will just about do it. It is encouraging that
:28:10. > :28:13.the turnout is up, by all accounts, for Northern Ireland, and who wins
:28:14. > :28:18.depends on who got the vote out, although we know from previous polls
:28:19. > :28:22.that it is usually wait angry men that turned out, but hopefully not
:28:23. > :28:26.all wait angry men have turned out and voted for Leave, and that a
:28:27. > :28:36.whole lot of women have turned out and voted for Remain -- white angry.
:28:37. > :28:40.It is interesting our account will not be in until 430 in the morning
:28:41. > :28:44.when other parts of the country with greater populations will be in
:28:45. > :28:52.before that -- our code will not be in until 4:30am. By all accounts, it
:28:53. > :28:59.looks pretty tight, Chris? Yes, I think so. Nigel Farage think, he
:29:00. > :29:02.says, it will lean towards Remain. Be under no illusion that if it goes
:29:03. > :29:06.the other way it is in keep it defending moment for the British
:29:07. > :29:10.public. For how they see themselves in terms of the rest of the world
:29:11. > :29:14.and the constitutional survival of the British date. Interestingly, if
:29:15. > :29:19.we were locally, have not been entirely convinced Arlene Foster and
:29:20. > :29:26.all of the DUP members have been as totally engaged as the Westminster
:29:27. > :29:30.MPs. Clearly some DUP strategists and backroom people, they have been
:29:31. > :29:33.leading figures in the Remain campaign, but I do not think the DUP
:29:34. > :29:38.has been as engaged as they might have been. On the Nationalist side,
:29:39. > :29:41.looking at Sinn Fein and the SDLP, we have been trying to get
:29:42. > :29:45.Nationalistss motivated using the issue of the border. As Mark was
:29:46. > :29:48.pointing out, it remains to be seen if that is the case, if we look at
:29:49. > :29:55.the differentials in turnout we will know whether that proves to be the
:29:56. > :29:58.case. Do you fancy the notion of the mortal wound inflicted on David
:29:59. > :30:02.Cameron, Tories into meltdown, General Election sooner rather than
:30:03. > :30:05.later, and Jeremy Corbyn coming through the middle, and some new
:30:06. > :30:08.definition of a political relationship between politicians and
:30:09. > :30:13.people in future? No, I do not think it will happen any time soon. I
:30:14. > :30:16.think the Conservatives have a mandate from the last when spinster
:30:17. > :30:20.election, they are in for five years. If the result is less than
:30:21. > :30:24.what David Cameron expected he may well resign -- last Westminster
:30:25. > :30:28.election. He may be challenged as Prime Minister because I have a
:30:29. > :30:32.feeling and I have had from the very start of this campaign that a lot of
:30:33. > :30:35.this has been internal wrangling in the Conservative Party dating right
:30:36. > :30:40.back to Ted Heath and there has always been a battle between the
:30:41. > :30:43.Eurosceptics and the pro-euro group within the party. If David Cameron
:30:44. > :30:50.does ball-mac, he will be replaced by someone who is still going to
:30:51. > :30:54.continue with the austerity measures he has put in place, the cuts in
:30:55. > :30:58.public services and public spending, and it was to damage our economy
:30:59. > :31:01.continuing forward. Award on that. Do you think you will still be in
:31:02. > :31:07.number ten at Christmas time? -- one word on that.
:31:08. > :31:17.Likely that Remain will win. But I think both of them, that parties,
:31:18. > :31:24.going to have rancour going forward. Something that we can discuss, the
:31:25. > :31:30.establishment about the culture of flags and tradition. What do you
:31:31. > :31:39.make of that commission? One of the faces that I had not heard of,
:31:40. > :31:44.Armstrong, the rest of them familiar, some political, and some
:31:45. > :31:55.not political. But having to take forward the cultures, identity,
:31:56. > :31:58.flags, tradition, only one person from ethnic committees, not exactly
:31:59. > :32:03.young, I think everybody has a role to play in this tradition, I wanted
:32:04. > :32:11.to get a more diverse appointment, for the commission, however I wish
:32:12. > :32:19.them well. I think the descriptive the an uphill task. Bot we want to
:32:20. > :32:26.see them work. The Commissioner for appointments, not happy, she thinks
:32:27. > :32:31.that the make up, one women, 14 men. This is an issue, that has been
:32:32. > :32:36.debated at public, could this be the correct mix of people, to get the
:32:37. > :32:42.agreement, sticking on the ground? I would not be convinced. And in a
:32:43. > :32:50.specialist art. Not just because it is only one woman, it is decidedly
:32:51. > :32:56.orange tint. How have shown Fein let that happen? I think it is something
:32:57. > :33:02.that needs an answer. A number of individuals, that have links, to the
:33:03. > :33:06.Unionist political parties. Some commentators have said that they
:33:07. > :33:09.have bought into this, the difficulties could be resolved,
:33:10. > :33:16.sticking on the ground. It is not by accident. It remains to be seen.
:33:17. > :33:22.Possibility, that consensus can be built, but that requires consensus,
:33:23. > :33:25.I am not convinced they will believe that. We will see. Thank you both.
:33:26. > :33:27.That is it. Join me for an extended
:33:28. > :33:29.Sunday Politics at Don't forget, there'll be local
:33:30. > :33:32.updates from the Titanic Exhibition Centre on the half hour every hour
:33:33. > :33:35.throughout the night - but let's head back to our
:33:36. > :33:37.colleagues in London now to catch up feel already, a coming together this
:33:38. > :33:39.evening, people who with the latest UK-wide picture.
:33:40. > :33:39.evening, people who had strong views on
:33:40. > :33:39.From everyone here in Belfast, for now - good night...
:33:40. > :33:41.From everyone here in Belfast, on different parts of the
:33:42. > :33:45.Conservative Party, already reaching out to each other and say - whatever
:33:46. > :33:50.the outcome, as Douglas said, it's too early to say, we're hopeful we
:33:51. > :33:51.will unite again afterwards. Conservative Party united is one
:33:52. > :33:53.thing. What