:00:00. > :00:00.11 weeks on from the vote that shook the UK, we've
:00:07. > :00:12.Has the Brexit decision changed your attitude to the future
:00:13. > :00:15.On The View tonight, we reveal the results -
:00:16. > :00:40.and we ask our politicians what they make of them.
:00:41. > :00:43.Tonight - as the implications of the Brexit vote slowly play out,
:00:44. > :00:46.we asked people if they believe Northern Ireland is better off
:00:47. > :00:53.staying within the United Kingdom or joining a united Ireland.
:00:54. > :01:01.I will bring you the results of that survey, the first major measure of
:01:02. > :01:06.public opinion here since the Brexit vote. Should there be a border poll?
:01:07. > :01:07.How would you vote, and has the vote to leave the EU changed your
:01:08. > :01:09.attitude? As the results are revealed,
:01:10. > :01:12.we'll have the first reaction Plus - in the cut and thrust
:01:13. > :01:15.of political debate, we know some politicians
:01:16. > :01:18.like to tiptoe around the issues. But we'll have more from one mayor
:01:19. > :01:21.who's more than happy to dance We'll get into the detailed poll
:01:22. > :01:32.findings in a moment - and we'll hear plenty of reaction
:01:33. > :01:35.from our panel of politicians - but first, here's a quick look back
:01:36. > :01:38.at some of the views expressed over the summer on the possibility
:01:39. > :01:52.of a border poll. Our case for a border poll is also
:01:53. > :01:58.strengthened by the outcome of this vote. It is the next logical step,
:01:59. > :02:03.and I think the case for it has been strengthened. I suppose the call for
:02:04. > :02:08.the border poll was as predictable as flowers in May. We knew it would
:02:09. > :02:14.come. But the test has not been met, so I do not believe it will happen.
:02:15. > :02:19.What happens at some point in the future, where it might be evident
:02:20. > :02:23.that a majority of people in Northern Ireland wanted to leave the
:02:24. > :02:32.United Kingdom and joy in the Republic in an all Ireland
:02:33. > :02:38.situation? Who knows what happens in 10-15 years' time? Whatever. So in
:02:39. > :02:43.the same way as it was possible for the former east Germany to be
:02:44. > :02:46.associated with west Germany and not to have to go through a very long
:02:47. > :02:52.and tortuous process to join the European Union, these negotiations
:02:53. > :02:57.should take these kind of things into account as well. Can he spell
:02:58. > :03:00.out what he has a ready said publicly in Northern Ireland, why
:03:01. > :03:05.there is no question of a border poll in Northern Ireland? I have
:03:06. > :03:08.been quite straightforward in relation to the issue of the border
:03:09. > :03:11.poll. The conditions are set out clearly in relation to the Belfast
:03:12. > :03:14.agreement and I have been clear that those conditions have not been met.
:03:15. > :03:17.So, those are the politicians' thoughts on a border poll,
:03:18. > :03:19.but are they borne out by public opinion?
:03:20. > :03:21.Well, for tonight's special programme we decided to find out -
:03:22. > :03:24.and here's Mark Devenport with the first of our
:03:25. > :03:26.So much for politicians calling for border polls.
:03:27. > :03:29.What does our survey tell us about the public's appetite
:03:30. > :03:32.for change in the wake of the Brexit decision?
:03:33. > :03:37.Here are some of the results from the survey carried out
:03:38. > :03:39.for The View between August 16th and September second
:03:40. > :03:44.The first question we asked was - do you think the government should
:03:45. > :03:50.33% of people said yes, there should be a border poll.
:03:51. > :03:54.But the number of people rejecting that idea was 52%,
:03:55. > :04:03.Breaking that down by community background, it's maybe no surprise
:04:04. > :04:05.that Protestants are less enthusiastic about holding
:04:06. > :04:14.By contrast, a narrow majority of Catholics want a referendum
:04:15. > :04:19.I should point out, if you have your calculators out,
:04:20. > :04:22.that some of these numbers have been rounded up.
:04:23. > :04:24.That tells us whether you want the government to hold a border
:04:25. > :04:27.poll, but if they went ahead and arranged one anyway,
:04:28. > :04:32.A clear majority of those questioned, 63%, told us they'd vote
:04:33. > :04:38.By contrast, the number planning to vote for Northern Ireland
:04:39. > :04:42.to join the Republic of Ireland was just 22%.
:04:43. > :04:44.13% don't know how they'd vote, whilst another 2% are not
:04:45. > :04:50.Predictably perhaps, the overwhelming majority of those
:04:51. > :04:55.with a Protestant background would vote to stay in the UK.
:04:56. > :04:58.More than third of those with a Catholic background
:04:59. > :05:02.would also opt to stay in the UK but 6% more than that,
:05:03. > :05:07.43% of the Catholics interviewed, favour a united Ireland.
:05:08. > :05:11.If we return to our overall figures for a moment we can provide a clue
:05:12. > :05:16.to how opinion might be moving over time.
:05:17. > :05:19.Three years ago, the same pollsters, Ipsos Mori, asked the exact same
:05:20. > :05:22.question for the BBC's Spotlight programme.
:05:23. > :05:25.A direct comparison with that survey shows a slight decrease in the level
:05:26. > :05:32.It was estimated at 65% in 2013, that's two points higher
:05:33. > :05:37.This difference, we should point out, is within
:05:38. > :05:42.But when we isolate those opting for a united Ireland we can see
:05:43. > :05:45.there's been a five-point increase in support for joining
:05:46. > :05:49.the Republic of Ireland, which was just 17% back
:05:50. > :05:58.That is something the pollsters think is significant.
:05:59. > :06:00.Focussing on those with a Catholic background, more than four out
:06:01. > :06:03.of ten told us they would back a united Ireland.
:06:04. > :06:06.That is up eight points on the 2013 figure, an increase which also
:06:07. > :06:15.Over the course of the last three years a united Ireland seems to have
:06:16. > :06:17.leapfrogged staying in the UK as the most popular
:06:18. > :06:24.Let's find out what my guests make of that first set
:06:25. > :06:30.With me are Christopher Stalford from the DUP, Declan Kearney
:06:31. > :06:35.of Sinn Fein, the SDLP's Claire Hanna, Steven Aiken
:06:36. > :06:43.for the Ulster Unionists and David Ford from Alliance.
:06:44. > :06:50.You are all very welcome and thank you for joining us. Declan Kearney,
:06:51. > :06:55.first, according to these results, and there are lots of them, there is
:06:56. > :07:04.no overwhelming appetite for a border poll to be called. 52% of
:07:05. > :07:08.people do not want one, only 33% do. Significantly, a court of the
:07:09. > :07:11.population in the north are indicating their wish to see the
:07:12. > :07:16.island reunited. More important than the mechanism of carrying out a poll
:07:17. > :07:21.and a referendum, it is the process of discussion that is quiet. We are
:07:22. > :07:23.looking at an entirely dramatically changed situation. I believe there
:07:24. > :07:29.is an appetite for a discussion about the future, what that should
:07:30. > :07:32.look like, the trajectory of change taken forward. We need to be
:07:33. > :07:39.innovative, radical and forward-looking about the discussion
:07:40. > :07:46.that should be happening on an inclusive, national basis. When you
:07:47. > :07:56.look at the snapshot that this poll is, only 22% would vote for a united
:07:57. > :08:01.Ireland. 63% want to stay in the UK. That is a huge change you would have
:08:02. > :08:05.to bring about to get the United Ireland that you say is achievable.
:08:06. > :08:09.Yes, that is prior to the beginning of the type of inclusive national
:08:10. > :08:14.conversation we would advocate should take place. There is an
:08:15. > :08:17.appetite. There is a huge amount of uncertainty across Northern Society
:08:18. > :08:22.of this particular point, uncertainty about the here and now
:08:23. > :08:26.and the future. That is the basis on which we engage society on a
:08:27. > :08:30.discussion about the future, the new constitutional future we should
:08:31. > :08:34.explore on the basis of new compromise. But there was a knot of
:08:35. > :08:39.uncertainty when the poll was being taken over the past few weeks, and
:08:40. > :08:44.still overall, 43% of Catholics, less than 50%, want a united
:08:45. > :08:49.Ireland. Surely if there was this direction of travel you are talking
:08:50. > :08:55.about that would be well over 50%. So let's commence the debate and see
:08:56. > :08:59.where it takes us. Why not have the debate? The first election in
:09:00. > :09:02.Northern Ireland after the state was created, the leader of the Ulster
:09:03. > :09:08.Unionists party command of the support of 67% of voters. If the
:09:09. > :09:12.findings in your opinion polls are accurate, that means that over the
:09:13. > :09:17.course of nearly 100 years, political nationalism has advanced
:09:18. > :09:22.the ground some 4%. I think the fact of the matter is that people expect
:09:23. > :09:26.better from politicians. We are living in uncertain times. That
:09:27. > :09:30.increases the responsibility upon the government, but also upon those
:09:31. > :09:33.who style themselves as the opposition, that we should try our
:09:34. > :09:37.best to make the best of the decision taken by the British people
:09:38. > :09:43.as a whole, in the referendum, and secure the best outcome for Northern
:09:44. > :09:46.Ireland. That is what people want. You are not comparing like with like
:09:47. > :09:53.when you look back to nearly 100 years ago. That is precisely the
:09:54. > :09:57.point. The point is that we have been told for years by nationalist
:09:58. > :10:01.politicians that a united Ireland is inevitable. These findings clearly
:10:02. > :10:05.indicate that people do not want us to focus on those questions. We are
:10:06. > :10:11.living in uncertain times and people want us to be focus on securing...
:10:12. > :10:15.If you drill down into the figures, looking at those who want to see a
:10:16. > :10:22.united Ireland, compared with the same question asked by the same
:10:23. > :10:29.company three years ago, it is up 5% from 17, up to 22%. Within one
:10:30. > :10:34.section. The point is, if it is up from a base of 17, up to 22, that is
:10:35. > :10:41.hardly the basis on which you would have a border poll. The figures tell
:10:42. > :10:46.us that is a significant move. Significant? 5%. People want us to
:10:47. > :10:50.focus on securing the best deal for Northern Ireland in the coming
:10:51. > :10:54.negotiations. The decision regarding the European Union has been made.
:10:55. > :10:59.People are fed up with this. We are in a post-referendum environment.
:11:00. > :11:03.That era is over and people want us to work together to secure the best
:11:04. > :11:08.outcome for Northern Ireland, not to obsess on the constitutional
:11:09. > :11:12.question. Claire Hanna, why obsessed with the national question when the
:11:13. > :11:18.figures are, from a nationalist perspective, perhaps disappointing?
:11:19. > :11:21.It is worth saying, and we warned well in advance of this campaign
:11:22. > :11:26.that there were far bigger issues at stake. People might be frustrating
:11:27. > :11:30.if we had half an hour to discuss Brexit fallout and we discussed it
:11:31. > :11:34.through the prism of green and arrange. I think there is a
:11:35. > :11:37.significant change, and it shows that constitutional views are not
:11:38. > :11:42.fixed and constitutions are not fixed. What has not changed is the
:11:43. > :11:45.fundamental things holding up progress towards united Ireland
:11:46. > :11:49.before Brexit and 20 years ago, and 40 years ago. We have not moved on
:11:50. > :11:53.on reconciliation within the northern half of Ireland, on
:11:54. > :11:59.stopping being a basket case. The fact is that people's relationship,
:12:00. > :12:02.and moderate nationalists, myself included, relationships have changed
:12:03. > :12:09.with the United Kingdom. We had a comfortably tolerant regime,
:12:10. > :12:14.tolerating jobs and we could do that in a tourist, social democratic UK.
:12:15. > :12:19.With that changing, people's mood towards the United Kingdom has
:12:20. > :12:25.changed. You cannot write out of history the changes in those
:12:26. > :12:31.numbers. 53% of Catholics want a border poll, and on to to the first
:12:32. > :12:37.question, but only 43% actually want a united Ireland. How come? In
:12:38. > :12:40.Scotland, the polling was consistently in the 20s in favour of
:12:41. > :12:44.Scottish independence, and it got, through the medium of the campaign
:12:45. > :12:48.and through hard work and detail that I accept Irish nationalism has
:12:49. > :12:53.not done, we have just seen what they campaign based on raw
:12:54. > :12:58.nationalism got. Your position is that you would support a border
:12:59. > :13:03.poll. Our position is that we are not ready. I accept it would be
:13:04. > :13:07.destabilising. We have just seen a campaign fought with no plan and no
:13:08. > :13:12.detail on the basis of atavistic passion. And we have just seen what
:13:13. > :13:16.will happen. We have seen not least that a young woman MP is dead on the
:13:17. > :13:20.back of it. We have seen what happens when you ask a very massive
:13:21. > :13:27.question with two binary outcomes and allow that to be driven by
:13:28. > :13:32.unthinking nationalism. What would Unionists have to fear from a border
:13:33. > :13:36.poll? Why not call the bluff of Sinn Fein? I don't think we should create
:13:37. > :13:40.more uncertainty by calling for a border poll. Perhaps having the
:13:41. > :13:46.border poll and putting it to bed would create more stability. What is
:13:47. > :13:50.the point? We are talking about the uncertainty caused by Brexit and
:13:51. > :13:55.where we are going. We need to be talking about where we go from here.
:13:56. > :13:58.One of the key things we need to talk about is what is the Sinn Fein-
:13:59. > :14:03.DUP government doing about the plan about moving forwards? That is what
:14:04. > :14:06.he is saying, let's have a debate about what the future might bring,
:14:07. > :14:11.and perhaps this is an important part of it. Let's have the debate
:14:12. > :14:15.about looking at Brexit and what we will do about Brexit. That is the
:14:16. > :14:18.most important thing to face at the moment. That is what the people of
:14:19. > :14:32.Northern Ireland want to hear from our government, what is the plan?
:14:33. > :14:44.Full stop I would like to put a quote, Steve said that the result of
:14:45. > :14:54.the referendum had dropped us into recession, do you not accept you
:14:55. > :15:00.were wrong on that? Where are we getting to? Where are we going to be
:15:01. > :15:08.in two or three years if we don't sort out this Brexit issue? There is
:15:09. > :15:13.no doubt that Brexit is absolutely huge. We are going to come on
:15:14. > :15:18.specifically to that so I don't want to get bogged down in that. I want
:15:19. > :15:21.to bring David Ford in here. Do you think eight border poll would be a
:15:22. > :15:28.useful exercise in the current circumstances? Do you think this
:15:29. > :15:32.national debate would be a useful thing for us to be engaged in?
:15:33. > :15:37.Methinks James Brokenshire was right in that clip from the House of
:15:38. > :15:42.Commons, that the conditions set out in 1998 are not met and the are no
:15:43. > :15:46.grounds for it. I also think eight border poll at this time would add
:15:47. > :15:52.to the destabilisation we have already seen from the EU referendum,
:15:53. > :15:57.there is no need for it and it would be destabilising. We need to
:15:58. > :16:01.concentrate on the problems of this society and how we promote
:16:02. > :16:04.reconciliation, how we build an economy, how we ensure we are fit
:16:05. > :16:11.for purpose, not play around with issues that divide people. When you
:16:12. > :16:15.look at the results of this Paul but is a snapshot of how people feel at
:16:16. > :16:21.this moment, DC the direction of travel but both Declan Kearney and
:16:22. > :16:26.Claire Hanno referred to? It is clear that while there was no
:16:27. > :16:32.significant change in the numbers who support the UK position, 17% to
:16:33. > :16:36.22% is statistically significant. Whether that is a short-term
:16:37. > :16:41.emotional response to the referendum whether it it indicates a longer
:16:42. > :16:45.term concern of people who would have been regarded as nationalists
:16:46. > :16:48.who probably vote for nationalist parties but who are actually quite
:16:49. > :16:52.content within Northern Ireland in the context of the Good Friday
:16:53. > :16:55.Agreement settlement with a tripartite set of relationships
:16:56. > :16:59.changing fundamentally and long term, that is the question. That is
:17:00. > :17:04.asked again in a year or two, it would be interested if that was a
:17:05. > :17:07.short-term blip or whether it's a fundamental change in attitudes
:17:08. > :17:13.following the destabilisation of the EU referendum. Would it not be
:17:14. > :17:17.better, Declan, to wait for six months or better still, from your
:17:18. > :17:21.perspective, wait until negotiations have taken place after the tripling
:17:22. > :17:25.of Article 50 because then a lot of the uncertainty may clear up and
:17:26. > :17:28.Sinn Fein maybe in a much better decision to put forward an
:17:29. > :17:32.attractive to people who at the moment frankly think the UK is the
:17:33. > :17:35.better way, but in the scenario of two or three years down the
:17:36. > :17:41.allowance may be persuaded by what it is you are arguing. These issues
:17:42. > :17:46.cannot be disconnected. The position of Ireland is the central fault line
:17:47. > :17:51.that rests inside Irish society and politics. That is what we have
:17:52. > :17:55.worked with for 100 years and the Brexit decision is a direct
:17:56. > :18:00.consequence and manifestation of the partition of Ireland. It is the
:18:01. > :18:04.price and cost of partition. The popular view across this society is
:18:05. > :18:09.that democracy has been shafted and it has, because the greater majority
:18:10. > :18:14.of people voted to remain within the EU. How can you say that when they
:18:15. > :18:21.British people, by majority voted? People of this region voted
:18:22. > :18:25.overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, I don't think it is acceptable for
:18:26. > :18:31.England to drag this part of Ireland out of the EU and further divide the
:18:32. > :18:34.political and social nature of this island. We don't need further
:18:35. > :18:41.division on top of the central partition and fault line that runs
:18:42. > :18:46.through... 18 years ago devoted -- people of this region voted even
:18:47. > :18:49.more in favour of the Good Friday Agreement and the need to ensure
:18:50. > :18:53.partnership with the Northern Irish relationship with both Great Britain
:18:54. > :19:00.and the republic. That is what it was about. Let me just press the
:19:01. > :19:03.pause button because you are determined to talk about Brexit and
:19:04. > :19:04.I am happy for us to do that in a second.
:19:05. > :19:08.We'll pick up again very shortly, after we hear from Mark Devenport
:19:09. > :19:12.Our last set of figures showed a comfortable majority
:19:13. > :19:15.for staying in the UK, but some indicators of increased
:19:16. > :19:21.support for a united Ireland, particularly amongst Catholics.
:19:22. > :19:24.What impact, if any, might the result of June's EU
:19:25. > :19:31.We asked those who said they would vote in a border poll,
:19:32. > :19:35.either to stay in the UK or join the Republic, if Brexit had affected
:19:36. > :19:38.that choice or if they had held the same opinion for a long time.
:19:39. > :19:41.Those who said it had changed their view, 17%.
:19:42. > :19:44.That's less than a fifth of all those planning to vote
:19:45. > :19:50.And those who said it did not change their view, 83%.
:19:51. > :19:56.Of those who told us they would be voting to stay in the UK,
:19:57. > :20:00.only 11% said Brexit had changed their view.
:20:01. > :20:02.Of those backing a united Ireland, a larger proportion, 32%,
:20:03. > :20:06.attributed their current stance to the impact of Brexit.
:20:07. > :20:11.Delving into the detail, those whose views may have been
:20:12. > :20:20.influenced by the EU result seem slightly more likely to be female,
:20:21. > :20:23.from a Catholic background and drawn from the affluent AB social classes.
:20:24. > :20:26.But it's worth a reminder those influenced by Brexit remain a fairly
:20:27. > :20:34.And let's put those findings to the politicians.
:20:35. > :20:41.Christopher Stalford, were you surprised that the Brexit result
:20:42. > :20:46.didn't have a huge impact on how people answered the question about
:20:47. > :20:51.eight border poll? I wasn't surprised and I will tell you why,
:20:52. > :20:58.because during the referendum campaign and I heard criticism from
:20:59. > :21:02.my colleague, we had on both sides of the referendum campaign, very
:21:03. > :21:06.extreme language used and after the result, the predictions that were
:21:07. > :21:11.being made, you would have thought a plague of locusts was going to
:21:12. > :21:14.descend on Belfast the way of which some of the two made immediately
:21:15. > :21:17.afterwards was carried out. The truth of the matter is a lot of the
:21:18. > :21:25.predictions made have come to nothing. Have they? I think they
:21:26. > :21:29.have. I do recall in the Assembly you telling us that it was going to
:21:30. > :21:32.sink us into a recession, do you stand by that? You think we will be
:21:33. > :21:38.in recession by the end of the year? We could be. That is not what you
:21:39. > :21:50.said. He said it would drop us into recession. I think this is a unique
:21:51. > :21:53.opportunity for the country as a whole and I believe it is important
:21:54. > :21:57.for all of us in positions of responsibility to pull together. You
:21:58. > :22:02.don't think there is any confusion or absence of facts that gives you
:22:03. > :22:05.cause for concern, Christopher? I sat in a committee meeting where a
:22:06. > :22:10.senior Ulster Unionist figure told me that the Erie of remainders and
:22:11. > :22:12.Brexiteer 's was over and it was our job to pull together to secure the
:22:13. > :22:17.best outcome and they believe that is what the people except us to do.
:22:18. > :22:22.Even if you are in opposition or government. There was that? Don't
:22:23. > :22:26.want to name the person because it was in a committee meeting and
:22:27. > :22:30.configured to right. They know who they were and they told me that the
:22:31. > :22:36.era of Brexiteer 's and remainders was over. Claire, do we even know
:22:37. > :22:41.what Brexit means Brexit means any more? I don't think it is acceptable
:22:42. > :22:49.for us to watch along with whatever they come up with. You are not
:22:50. > :22:56.washing a long, you're not doing anything. Christopher is like a man
:22:57. > :23:04.who is jumping off a building 20 stories and saying it is going OK so
:23:05. > :23:09.far. It is entirely premature. Clearly there has been a dead cat
:23:10. > :23:14.bounce. Can we move the debate on? What we should be talking about is
:23:15. > :23:19.what the Government plans to do about it? Tell us what you're going
:23:20. > :23:28.to do. What we have said very clearly... In these negotiations
:23:29. > :23:30.that are meant to be happening, the first and Deputy First Minister 's
:23:31. > :23:35.speech from Northern Ireland in those discussions, they will
:23:36. > :23:39.negotiate with the EU as a test on a state level but it is able to
:23:40. > :23:44.influence the Government position but they don't agree with each other
:23:45. > :23:47.on much of this area. There was a disagreement. The two parties came
:23:48. > :23:50.at the issue from different perspectives. That didn't stop the
:23:51. > :23:56.first and Deputy First Minister is sending a joint letter to Theresa
:23:57. > :23:59.May outlining the concerns that we had and that is what a responsible
:24:00. > :24:03.government does. They should outline the concerns that people have. We
:24:04. > :24:06.tried to take on board the concerns that people like Claire Hanna
:24:07. > :24:10.outlined and what was the response from the opposition? They told us
:24:11. > :24:15.that they didn't really believe in Brexit in the first place. Declan,
:24:16. > :24:18.significant numbers of people were really upset by the Brexit vote in
:24:19. > :24:21.the way you suggest, would you not have expected that to be reflected
:24:22. > :24:25.in your responses to this question in our poll and it isn't really
:24:26. > :24:29.because the number of individuals who claim they change their view
:24:30. > :24:35.because of the result to leave was only 17%, 83%, no change. I think we
:24:36. > :24:38.are at the beginning of a watershed, the full extent of which has yet to
:24:39. > :24:43.play out and it will take a lot of time for that to happen. Theresa May
:24:44. > :24:47.has said Brexit is Brexit and we will make a success of it, the one
:24:48. > :24:52.phrase I think she forgot to add at the end of that statement was, but
:24:53. > :24:56.we don't know what we're going to do about it. And that has created a
:24:57. > :25:02.situation of profound uncertainty that has impacted on the food
:25:03. > :25:05.sector, the community sector, the voluntary sector for younger people
:25:06. > :25:11.and older people in this society now. The net effect on all of that
:25:12. > :25:14.is to have profoundly changed the political and economic landscape of
:25:15. > :25:21.the North and it has run applications for the island and we
:25:22. > :25:24.are only at the beginning of it. Christopher is sitting there saying
:25:25. > :25:29.it'll be all right on the night, it won't. The reality is Christopher
:25:30. > :25:33.has yet to indicate with any certainty what is the direction
:25:34. > :25:39.travel. What we need to do is ensure... Sinn Fein is well-known
:25:40. > :25:45.for making their negotiating position public. The best position
:25:46. > :25:47.in the people of the North to remain in the EU should be respected and
:25:48. > :25:52.the Government and Assembly should work in a united way to make sure it
:25:53. > :25:57.is done. David Ford, isn't it the reality that as the dust on June's
:25:58. > :26:00.referendum settles, people might in the first instance of rushed off to
:26:01. > :26:04.get Irish passports because that is the way they saw things in the heat
:26:05. > :26:08.of that moment, but they have not, this is what the polls suggest, they
:26:09. > :26:17.have not switched allegiance en masse towards for example supporting
:26:18. > :26:19.a united Ireland, things have calmed down quite a lot. In that regard
:26:20. > :26:22.Christopher Stalford may have a point. I am not quite sure what
:26:23. > :26:26.Christopher means when he talks about both sides. I don't remember
:26:27. > :26:30.an election campaign before now where the people who once admitted
:26:31. > :26:35.they were telling lies within 12 hours of the polls closing. There
:26:36. > :26:38.are real challenges there. I acknowledged earlier on that was a
:26:39. > :26:43.significant change in the numbers saying they would support a Ireland.
:26:44. > :26:47.There is clearly an issue of people who want an Irish passport because
:26:48. > :26:52.they want to stick they wish to be European citizens but we cannot tell
:26:53. > :26:56.whether it is a short-term emotional reaction and how far it has
:26:57. > :26:58.underpinned the whole basis of our settlement since 1998.
:26:59. > :27:00.Thanks - and let's pause again and go back to Mark Devenport
:27:01. > :27:03.for the result of the final question in our survey.
:27:04. > :27:05.In the immediate aftermath of June's decision to leave the EU
:27:06. > :27:08.the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said another independence
:27:09. > :27:12.Since then the SNP has appeared to moderate its language,
:27:13. > :27:16.launching what it calls a new conversation
:27:17. > :27:23.To try to gauge the potential impact here we asked our final question.
:27:24. > :27:26.If in the future Scotland voted to leave the UK,
:27:27. > :27:33.how might that affect your vote in a border poll here?
:27:34. > :27:35.And there were five options for people to choose from.
:27:36. > :27:39.18% told us they would be more likely to vote to stay in the UK.
:27:40. > :27:42.By contrast, 15% reckoned they were more likely to vote
:27:43. > :27:47.But more than half, 56%, said that if Scotland leaves the UK
:27:48. > :27:49.it would not change their view on a referendum on this
:27:50. > :27:58.9% don't know how Scottish independence might affect
:27:59. > :28:02.their vote, whilst 1% aren't intending to take part.
:28:03. > :28:05.Of course this is all very hypothetical.
:28:06. > :28:08.We don't yet know if or when there'll be another Scottish vote
:28:09. > :28:10.or what the result of such a referendum might be.
:28:11. > :28:13.But either way, the majority of people here think a Scottish
:28:14. > :28:15.independence vote won't change their outlook when it
:28:16. > :28:22.And let's hear what the politicians make of that Scottish
:28:23. > :28:34.Steven Aiken, it seems that what happens in Scotland is not of huge
:28:35. > :28:38.influence to people. I don't think it would be because the people of
:28:39. > :28:41.Northern Ireland want to remain in the knighted kingdom. It is
:28:42. > :28:45.important that regardless of what happens in Scotland, the people of
:28:46. > :28:50.Northern Ireland get a good settlement through Brexit. Are you
:28:51. > :28:54.surprised by that finding? Not really. Maximum net possible effect
:28:55. > :28:59.is 3%. People are more concerned about issues here than in Scotland,
:29:00. > :29:02.and the issues will continue to need to be addressed by parties in
:29:03. > :29:06.Northern Ireland to see that we work out a deal to get Northern Ireland
:29:07. > :29:12.moving forward, not the kind of stasis we have been for the last few
:29:13. > :29:16.years. In a period of change, people are more pragmatic than pollsters
:29:17. > :29:21.and binary questions give them credit for. We know that views are
:29:22. > :29:27.not fixed and can change. What people know, particularly those of
:29:28. > :29:31.us who have to persuade otherwise, it has to be progressive, we have to
:29:32. > :29:35.make progress. The question is, why in the last ten years when you have
:29:36. > :29:40.been in government, has there been no progress towards Irish union, no
:29:41. > :29:44.realisation of north - south working. A quick word on that, and
:29:45. > :29:50.address the Scottish damage in as well. The British state as we know
:29:51. > :29:55.it is in fundamental constitutional and political chaos. I do not see
:29:56. > :29:58.that reversing and I think it will have ramifications for the break-up
:29:59. > :30:03.of the British state and that will in turn have an impact, in my view,
:30:04. > :30:09.on the political direction of the island here. Of that, there is no
:30:10. > :30:13.doubt. If that is right, you are in trouble because this could turn on a
:30:14. > :30:18.sixpence in three years, depending on what happens in Scotland,
:30:19. > :30:20.depending on what happens in the article 15 negotiations, and you
:30:21. > :30:27.could find yourself with a very different set of figures in three
:30:28. > :30:30.years. -- Article 50. Northern Ireland has faced many crises over
:30:31. > :30:35.the years and we have been told things will turn on a sixpence. Much
:30:36. > :30:39.of the hype there has been since the referendum result has been generated
:30:40. > :30:42.in a political media bubble. I think people are much calmer and more
:30:43. > :30:49.reasonable than some of us who practice politics. I think our job,
:30:50. > :30:53.all of us, whether in government or the opposition, and I welcome the
:30:54. > :30:56.views of other people, we need to pull together to secure the best
:30:57. > :31:01.outcome for Northern Ireland. That is what people expect and the First
:31:02. > :31:06.Minister is committed to. One final word before we go about the
:31:07. > :31:15.continuing controversy over revelations on the Spotlight
:31:16. > :31:20.programme on which someone was filmed receiving money in a hospital
:31:21. > :31:24.car park. You have tabled a debate on this on Stormont's first day back
:31:25. > :31:29.on Monday coming. Everybody wants to know what is going on. This has been
:31:30. > :31:34.going on for a long time. If we look at ?40,000 being handed over in car
:31:35. > :31:40.parks, a year before the original discussion was had, when the issue
:31:41. > :31:44.was kicking off, there is something fundamentally wrong and there are
:31:45. > :31:46.questions that need to be asked. Did Sammy Wilson actually do Jude
:31:47. > :31:52.village and is when he was appointed adviser? If you look at this, there
:31:53. > :31:57.is something fundamentally wrong and that needs to be worked out now. And
:31:58. > :32:01.we need answers, because it is undermining the confidence of people
:32:02. > :32:05.coming to invest in Northern Ireland. If they see this and
:32:06. > :32:09.continue to do this, it needs to get sorted out. Sammy Wilson is not here
:32:10. > :32:15.to speak for himself or the DUP, but Christopher, you are. The National
:32:16. > :32:19.Crime Agency, which is tasked with investigating this, and the police,
:32:20. > :32:23.should take the lead rather than a group of politicians. I think what
:32:24. > :32:30.people want and expect and what I want and expect is that any evidence
:32:31. > :32:33.of wrongdoing is pursued to a conclusion. How embarrassing is it
:32:34. > :32:38.for your party to see a man described as a friend by your former
:32:39. > :32:41.leader, Peter Robinson, former First Minister and your former finance
:32:42. > :32:44.minister, Sammy Wilson, accorded receiving a large cash payment from
:32:45. > :32:50.a property developer in the circumstances we saw on Tuesday
:32:51. > :32:55.night? Any person who has questions to answer needs to answer them to
:32:56. > :32:58.the appropriate authorities. In this case, the appropriate authority is
:32:59. > :33:01.the National Crime Agency and if there is evidence of criminal
:33:02. > :33:07.wrongdoing, the Police Service of Northern Ireland. I think it is best
:33:08. > :33:11.that the police and the NCA lead on this, rather than politicians. I
:33:12. > :33:14.think it is important that we restore the fullest possible
:33:15. > :33:18.confidence in the institutions at Stormont, which is why the NCA is
:33:19. > :33:22.the best organisation to lead on this. Could be both the police and
:33:23. > :33:28.it could be debated by politicians at Stormont. This represents
:33:29. > :33:32.financial corruption at the heart of the establishment and the Northern
:33:33. > :33:37.business class. It is a disgrace that this development has been
:33:38. > :33:40.exposed in a context where we are seeing our manufacturing industry
:33:41. > :33:45.decimated, workers losing jobs week on week, where people live in an era
:33:46. > :33:49.of austerity. We need to see those responsible made amenable under the
:33:50. > :33:52.law on a transatlantic basis. Michael Noonan should publish the
:33:53. > :33:55.report he has taken possession of and we should see an all Ireland
:33:56. > :34:01.Public enquiry into this criminal scandal. We have to leave it there.
:34:02. > :34:04.This is a subject that will be debated at Stormont on Monday and we
:34:05. > :34:06.will no doubt get an opportunity to look at it in more detail after
:34:07. > :34:08.that. That's it from all
:34:09. > :34:11.of us on The View. And in the week that one politician
:34:12. > :34:13.caught the public's eye for all the wrong reasons
:34:14. > :34:16.on the Strictly dance floor - poor old Ed Balls -
:34:17. > :34:18.we spotted a much better from County Down,
:34:19. > :35:04.who's world-famous for his tractors. Our Harry was the first man
:35:05. > :35:08.to design,