:00:00. > :00:00.Theresa May insists she wants a seamless border,
:00:07. > :00:09.but at the same time dog-walkers are warned they might need papers
:00:10. > :00:15.Tonight on The View, I'll be asking three Westminster
:00:16. > :00:17.veterans if we're any clearer about the European frontier
:00:18. > :00:43.After two days of discussion and a very comfortable majority
:00:44. > :00:46.endorsing Theresa May's plans to trigger Article 50,
:00:47. > :00:49.we're still no clearer as to how a post-Brexit border might look.
:00:50. > :00:52.I'll be asking MPs Sammy Wilson and Mark Durkan if they can shed
:00:53. > :00:57.some light on the subject, after the heat of debate.
:00:58. > :01:00.And we'll hear too from Baroness Helena Kennedy,
:01:01. > :01:02.who recently completed a report on the potential effect of Brexit
:01:03. > :01:12.Also tonight, with no Executive and no budget,
:01:13. > :01:15.how long before the money gets tight and public services
:01:16. > :01:26.With some hip-hop political analysis...
:01:27. > :01:28.And with their own kind of street-cred, in Commentators'
:01:29. > :01:38.Corner, Professor Deirdre Heenan and Newton Emerson.
:01:39. > :01:41.So the roadmap to the UK's departure from the EU may be
:01:42. > :01:43.a little clearer now, but what of the border
:01:44. > :01:47.Is the notion of a seamless frontier just "nice words",
:01:48. > :01:50.as one EU trade expert put it yesterday, or a statement
:01:51. > :01:52.of intent by the UK to look after it's Irish neighbours?
:01:53. > :01:55.Joining me now in the studio is the DUP's Sammy
:01:56. > :02:02.is the SDLP's Mark Durkan and from our Oxford studio I'm
:02:03. > :02:05.joined by the Labour peer, Baroness Kennedy.
:02:06. > :02:12.You are all very welcome to the programme.
:02:13. > :02:13.Sammy Wilson, your party's obviously pleased with
:02:14. > :02:16.the government's line on a seamless, frictionless border in future -
:02:17. > :02:18.but equally you'll be aware of the former European Commission's
:02:19. > :02:20.customs expert, Michael Lux, who said yesterday those
:02:21. > :02:23.remarks were "nice words", but things cannot and will not
:02:24. > :02:26.There will be increased costs to businesses, he says.
:02:27. > :02:42.He has obviously made an assumption about the outcome of negotiations.
:02:43. > :02:47.First, the easiest way to have a seamless border is four in the trade
:02:48. > :02:51.agreement which the Prime Minister's wishes to have with the European
:02:52. > :02:55.Union to simply continue as we are at present. We don't have taxes on
:02:56. > :02:59.goods which passed between the European Union and the United
:03:00. > :03:08.Kingdom or vice versa at the moment, we have 40 years where we have
:03:09. > :03:13.harmonised regulations anyway, many of the goods that will be selling...
:03:14. > :03:21.What about the customs union? The movement of goods? Will come to that
:03:22. > :03:27.in the moment. But as for the goods that we sell at the moment, the
:03:28. > :03:32.outcome of any trade agreement would be to continue at present. That
:03:33. > :03:36.would be to the advantage of European companies because they have
:03:37. > :03:42.a trade surplus with ourselves. When it comes to a customs union we have
:03:43. > :03:46.plenty examples of three Ma'afu in Europe where countries outside the
:03:47. > :03:57.union still trade effortlessly will stop. -- plenty of examples of
:03:58. > :04:02.countries outside. You are making big assumptions. I'm not, I'm
:04:03. > :04:08.telling you what currently happens between Gibraltar and Spain,
:04:09. > :04:12.Switzerland and France and Germany. They are outside the customs union
:04:13. > :04:18.yet there is seamless movement across the borders there. There are
:04:19. > :04:25.lots of ways that we took evidence at the Brexit committee about this,
:04:26. > :04:32.with electronic exchange of paperwork, with number recognition,
:04:33. > :04:37.with spot checks, all of this could be done fairly effortlessly. Let us
:04:38. > :04:43.hear from Baroness Kennedy, thank you be joining us. You sat on the
:04:44. > :04:49.committee and looked at it in great detail you persuaded by Sammy
:04:50. > :04:53.Wilson's confidence that things need not go badly and there are plenty of
:04:54. > :05:00.examples out there of how things can be done positively? I am amused to
:05:01. > :05:06.hear such a cockeyed optimist holding forth on what he thinks is
:05:07. > :05:10.going to happen at the end of this. I really do think that the economic
:05:11. > :05:16.consequences of this are really serious and when we took evidence
:05:17. > :05:22.and we did so across the piece and a contingent came over here to the
:05:23. > :05:27.north and took evidence from people here and it really is going to be
:05:28. > :05:34.incredibly complex and not the simple story that Sammy is telling
:05:35. > :05:37.you. This business of a seamless border, of course the idea of
:05:38. > :05:45.returning to a proper border would be terrible, but I do not see how
:05:46. > :05:50.this is all going to be done. If you ask to reason de Villiers she says
:05:51. > :05:55.it will be done with technology, but this is only useful if you make
:05:56. > :05:58.checks and people will find that there will be checks being made and
:05:59. > :06:02.they will pick people in the line who they will check and you will
:06:03. > :06:08.have to have your papers in order. This creates suspicion, lack of
:06:09. > :06:12.trust and other problems. We will see a return to something we didn't
:06:13. > :06:17.want to see in these islands. I want to emphasise that one of the things
:06:18. > :06:22.in this one up to the referendum, the consequences of this were never
:06:23. > :06:26.fully understood by people in other parts of the UK and certainly in
:06:27. > :06:29.Westminster not enough consideration was given to the consequences of
:06:30. > :06:39.this but the people of Northern Ireland will stop. People come to
:06:40. > :06:44.this coloured by their political attitude towards whether or not we
:06:45. > :06:50.should remain us day. Did you come to it with that as well? Of course I
:06:51. > :06:56.do, but I also have experience of countries outside the customs union
:06:57. > :06:59.and the single market and yet effortlessly on a day-to-day basis
:07:00. > :07:06.trade takes place across the borders. When we took evidence from
:07:07. > :07:12.the Chief Minister of Gibraltar dart that is the one example you have
:07:13. > :07:15.quoted a lot. He said the attitude is of officials from the Spanish
:07:16. > :07:23.side when they got out of bed in the morning... Let hate have a quick
:07:24. > :07:29.word. We have been taken evidence about the whole business of
:07:30. > :07:33.Gibraltar which is in a state of despondency about the business of
:07:34. > :07:37.leaving the European Union. It gets a huge amount of support from the
:07:38. > :07:44.European Union and many people come from Spain into Gibraltar every day
:07:45. > :07:48.to work. The economy of Gibraltar would not survive without them. They
:07:49. > :07:53.are anxious about the kind of support and subsidies they get. The
:07:54. > :08:02.economic well-being of Gibraltar will be put at risk. So, don't kid
:08:03. > :08:06.yourself. -- don't give yourself this easy talk about how it works
:08:07. > :08:14.perfectly well, it doesn't. Let's bring Mark Durkin in at this point.
:08:15. > :08:20.Sammy has already said that people are coloured by their political
:08:21. > :08:38.commitments, you were at the cis is Remainer. -- you wear a keen remain
:08:39. > :08:42.a campaigner. What is to say that any of the predictions about what
:08:43. > :08:48.happened in the future would be any truer than they were six months ago?
:08:49. > :08:57.I didn't make those predictions, I had a measured argument. And said
:08:58. > :09:00.that people should be careful with exaggerating the border
:09:01. > :09:04.implications. We gave a clear and measured argument. We were strong in
:09:05. > :09:08.terms of our case, but we didn't join any of the scare stories and
:09:09. > :09:14.weak distance ourselves from some of what was coming from some people. So
:09:15. > :09:19.wait you uncomfortable about George Osborne saying there would have to
:09:20. > :09:26.be a emergency budget, tax spending, cuts, none of that really happened.
:09:27. > :09:42.Yes, and I told George Osborne that directly and when Tony Blair and
:09:43. > :09:48.others wet coming to Strabane. Leave Derry. Perhaps it is not as negative
:09:49. > :09:56.as some people are suggesting. Could I say something, let's be very clear
:09:57. > :10:01.Sammy and those who campaigned to Leave said everything would change,
:10:02. > :10:04.but now since they have said that nothing has to change and that
:10:05. > :10:08.harmonisation is a good thing and therefore needs to change. The
:10:09. > :10:14.common regulation standards of good and it had to change or whatever. We
:10:15. > :10:27.have this odd situation of Brexit as this mind altering substance that
:10:28. > :10:32.has changed the Leave people. And people like Theresa May has also
:10:33. > :10:35.changed her mind because she said that things that happen happen and
:10:36. > :10:41.could only happen now low longer have to happen. What is the answer,
:10:42. > :10:45.Mark Durkan? Some kind of special status that those in powerful
:10:46. > :10:49.positions need to argue for this point? Well, if we are going to talk
:10:50. > :10:54.about things that need to stay the same we need to have as much as the
:10:55. > :10:58.same experience of things on the island of Ireland as we have. We
:10:59. > :11:05.need to keep all our trading arrangements the same all customs
:11:06. > :11:08.operations and the lack of them the same and that means a special
:11:09. > :11:15.guarantee in respect of Northern Ireland. And the rest of Ireland.
:11:16. > :11:19.That can be achieved and it should mean continuing access to EU
:11:20. > :11:25.funding, and a number of the programme is not least using the
:11:26. > :11:30.Good Friday Agreement structures. What about some kind of special
:11:31. > :11:33.status, Sammy, if that is in the best interest of everyone in
:11:34. > :11:39.Northern Ireland, you wouldn't argue about that would you? That has been
:11:40. > :11:46.ruled out by the government because you can't have part of the United
:11:47. > :11:51.Kingdom half in... It hasn't been ruled out before the negotiations
:11:52. > :11:59.take place. It will not be the few's decision, the people who aren't
:12:00. > :12:04.negotiating on behalf of the UK Government, they have made it clear
:12:05. > :12:12.that there will not be part of the UK that stay in the Uber you don't
:12:13. > :12:16.know. -- that stay in the EU. If they wear to grant that to Northern
:12:17. > :12:21.Ireland they would have a greater problem of Scotland and secondly
:12:22. > :12:27.there are already other countries in EE you who are looking at regions
:12:28. > :12:30.which would like the same arrangement for themselves, Spain
:12:31. > :12:39.for example have said they would oppose any such agreement. -- other
:12:40. > :12:43.countries in the European Union. The government negotiating on our behalf
:12:44. > :12:46.has said they were not consider it. Let us bring in Baroness Kennedy. I
:12:47. > :12:53.think you agreed with one point there, did you? I feel we have to
:12:54. > :12:58.make clear that you always have to think when you are involved in a
:12:59. > :13:02.negotiation, as a lawyer I have been involved in many, you have to think
:13:03. > :13:05.of the other folk will be thinking. There are many other European
:13:06. > :13:12.countries that will watch this with great care and you can be sure in
:13:13. > :13:15.the negotiations. I will give you an analogy, if you are a subscriber to
:13:16. > :13:18.sky television and you thought you didn't want to pay any money any
:13:19. > :13:23.more but you still wanted to watch the programmes, they are not going
:13:24. > :13:28.to allow people to have everything exactly the same that it was that
:13:29. > :13:33.you are nonmember. There is going to be something different about all of
:13:34. > :13:37.this and I think that this notion that we'll get everything we used to
:13:38. > :13:44.have but still somehow not be in the European Union, is not on. That is
:13:45. > :13:48.not going to be agreeable. Let's be clear about these negotiations, it
:13:49. > :13:53.will be very difficult to get what Sammy is talking about. I think that
:13:54. > :13:57.it is pie in the sky to imagine that it is all good to be just as it was
:13:58. > :14:04.and there will be a cost attached to it. The awful thing is that it will
:14:05. > :14:11.be auditory ordinary folk who will pay that. Of course the great
:14:12. > :14:15.disaster didn't happen the the day after the referendum. We have seen
:14:16. > :14:23.the value of the pound go down and we're likely to see, I think there
:14:24. > :14:27.is a real risk of inflation and a very slow business in acquiring the
:14:28. > :14:32.trading relationships that are supposed to replace... Did everyone
:14:33. > :14:40.on your committee agree with that? Where they all Remainers who were
:14:41. > :14:44.concerned about Brexit? They were varied, some people said it has been
:14:45. > :14:48.done let's move on make the best of it. Most people are recognising that
:14:49. > :14:53.we have to see our way through all of this. At the moment I'm saying to
:14:54. > :14:57.you Sammy beat you are really living in cloud cuckoo land if you think it
:14:58. > :15:02.will be the same as it was but without being in the EU. You are
:15:03. > :15:08.living in cloud cuckoo land if think that in capitals across Europe at
:15:09. > :15:13.present countries that have a trade surplus with the United Kingdom,
:15:14. > :15:18.that jobs will I upon goods being sold into the United Kingdom, that
:15:19. > :15:23.those countries are not thinking, what kind of trade deal can we do
:15:24. > :15:28.that ensures the same flow of goods and services as what occurs at
:15:29. > :15:33.present the cars it is to our advantage. That is the leveraged
:15:34. > :15:38.that the government has. For that reason I feel at least when it comes
:15:39. > :15:45.to the trade deal, that should be the easiest thing to negotiate.
:15:46. > :15:51.Let's bring Mark Durkan back. You raise the issue of special status,
:15:52. > :15:55.Sammy Wilson said it has been taken away and ruled out, but that is
:15:56. > :16:06.before negotiations have been done. I Usain Bolt that is not necessarily
:16:07. > :16:11.where we will end up. -- are you saying that is not necessarily. What
:16:12. > :16:18.we want here in the North is what is best but was in the North, and if
:16:19. > :16:30.Sammy is saying that a lot of what we have been benefiting from is good
:16:31. > :16:35.then we should... Had he persuaded Sammy of that? I am not sure how,
:16:36. > :16:39.whenever we both sit on the Brexit committee and he gives a different
:16:40. > :16:43.version of what the Chief minister in Gibraltar says then I would give,
:16:44. > :16:48.the fact is the chief minister in Gibraltar told is clearly that there
:16:49. > :16:58.are significant delays at their customs. He also pointed out... I
:16:59. > :17:03.did not interrupt you, Sammy. He told us about the significant delays
:17:04. > :17:07.and that they are wary. He told us about the fears that he had that
:17:08. > :17:15.there could end up being more punitive arrangements while we're
:17:16. > :17:19.outside of the U. -- of the EU. He also said that they were happy with
:17:20. > :17:23.the standards that they have of being outside of the customs union
:17:24. > :17:26.because it allowed them to do certain things, things that don't
:17:27. > :17:31.apply here that we couldn't do anyway. If Sammy thinks that
:17:32. > :17:36.Gibraltar is such a good situation, it is in a differential position
:17:37. > :17:40.anyway all along. It can be less British as it says it is and been a
:17:41. > :17:44.differential position from the UK as far as relationships with the EU is
:17:45. > :17:50.concerned, there is no reason why Northern Ireland can't do the same.
:17:51. > :17:50.Especially seen as we have pre-existing structures recognised
:17:51. > :17:59.and supported by Baroness Kennedy, you took evidence
:18:00. > :18:03.from others who seemed to suggest to your committee, having spoken to
:18:04. > :18:08.people in the UK, a lot of people did not seem to get Ireland, did not
:18:09. > :18:12.seem to get their implications, as he saw it, for Brexit and the border
:18:13. > :18:17.and cross-border trade in future. Do you think he got that right, did he
:18:18. > :18:21.call it right? Did people simply not understand? He said they were too
:18:22. > :18:30.busy looking at the implications for Scotland. I agreed with him
:18:31. > :18:32.entirely. I have set around tables, seminars, sat around the House of
:18:33. > :18:38.Lords listening to debates, and it is clear to me that the hard work,
:18:39. > :18:46.the hours going into the peace process, and the way in which the
:18:47. > :18:51.European union played a role, a good and ameliorative role in getting all
:18:52. > :18:58.of what is currently in place in place, hard work went into that, and
:18:59. > :19:01.it was never felt in a real and visceral way in large parts of the
:19:02. > :19:07.United Kingdom, in the way that it is by people in Ireland, north and
:19:08. > :19:11.south. So I really think he was absolutely right, he is just not
:19:12. > :19:17.understood, and that is why your voices have to be heard loudly and
:19:18. > :19:19.strongly. Sammy can talk his forelock to Conservative Government,
:19:20. > :19:26.but the reality is there are serious issues here we have to keep this
:19:27. > :19:31.government on its toes negotiating on the half of all us and Ireland's
:19:32. > :19:36.voice has to be heard very strongly. A final question to you, Sammy. What
:19:37. > :19:41.we are looking for is a special deal for island of -- island of Ireland
:19:42. > :19:48.which preserves the institutions we have created and the goods services.
:19:49. > :19:52.Who said that? Your colleague Jeffrey Donaldson in the DUP.
:19:53. > :19:59.Completely at odds to what you have told us tonight. It is not... It is,
:20:00. > :20:04.because you have said you do not want a special deal. When it comes
:20:05. > :20:07.to the freedom of movement across borders, that will be part of the
:20:08. > :20:12.negotiations and that Prime Minister has made it quite clear that it
:20:13. > :20:16.will, and of course we have to persuade the negotiators on the EU
:20:17. > :20:19.side that that is a good thing... But when I ask you if you wanted a
:20:20. > :20:25.special deal you ruled it out and said no. That is not a special deal
:20:26. > :20:29.but part of this movement of goods and services across borders. We have
:20:30. > :20:35.too convinced the negotiators on the EU side that there is an advantage
:20:36. > :20:41.in keeping in place the arrangements we have at present when it comes to
:20:42. > :20:44.trade. I do not think that is... In fact the Irish government are the
:20:45. > :20:49.ones pushing us because they are the ones who would lose most if we do
:20:50. > :20:54.not have that movement. Mark Durkan, a final sentence to you. Now that
:20:55. > :20:59.Sammy is relying on the goodwill of the Irish government, not wanting to
:21:00. > :21:05.speak about the traditions of Brexit with them, but on this issue of the
:21:06. > :21:08.frictions border, who has been advocating that? We get these
:21:09. > :21:12.nonsense statements, these platitudes, offered as though they
:21:13. > :21:16.are solid negotiating positions, as though they are any sort of
:21:17. > :21:21.guarantee of outcomes. The fact is we are on a Brexit course and there
:21:22. > :21:28.is no compass, map or sat mouth, and people are coming merry tunes to
:21:29. > :21:30.themselves... There have been EU commissioner such as Jean-Claude
:21:31. > :21:33.Juncker who said he will punish Britain and the Prime Minister said
:21:34. > :21:36.if it comes down to that we can punish the rest of the European
:21:37. > :21:41.Union is much more and that is why it is in everyone's interest to come
:21:42. > :21:45.to an agreement where we have this movement of goods that we have at
:21:46. > :21:51.present... Without tariffs or barriers. To try to keep things the
:21:52. > :21:54.same. We are out of time, folks. Interesting stuff, and we will have
:21:55. > :21:55.a lot more of it in the next couple of years. Thank you all for joining
:21:56. > :22:02.us tonight. Now we know it's a dangerous game
:22:03. > :22:04.to make predictions in politics, but it's odds-on that we won't
:22:05. > :22:07.have an Executive or a budget agreed Our business and economics editor
:22:08. > :22:25.John Campbell has been Our public services spend around ?30
:22:26. > :22:28.million every single day. That goes on everything from sticking plasters
:22:29. > :22:36.to bridges, and the salaries of tens of thousands of workers. The legal
:22:37. > :22:42.authority to spend that money comes from the Budget Act. The political
:22:43. > :22:46.crisis means the Assembly has not passed an act for the new financial
:22:47. > :22:50.year. The deadline to get one on the books is the 29th of March and
:22:51. > :22:55.unless there is unexpectedly rapid progress after the election, that
:22:56. > :23:00.deadline will be missed. At which point, it is over to this man, David
:23:01. > :23:07.Stirling, the permanent secretary at the Department of Finance. Section
:23:08. > :23:12.59 of the Northern Ireland Act means he immediately gets control of a sum
:23:13. > :23:17.of money equivalent to 75% of this year's budget. That allows him to
:23:18. > :23:21.keep services operating while waiting for a political deal. We
:23:22. > :23:28.have taken legal advice on this and, you know, it is very clear that this
:23:29. > :23:35.provision is an interim measure, purely a stopgap to ensure that
:23:36. > :23:41.business continuity prevails, and that departments have the cash
:23:42. > :23:47.necessary for them to run their services until such time as a budget
:23:48. > :23:50.act is put in place. But there are other competitions. Without a
:23:51. > :23:57.budget, Stormont also lacks the power to issue rates bills. You will
:23:58. > :24:01.get one at some point, but it is not clear when. Councils which rely on
:24:02. > :24:09.rates revenue will instead get their money directly from Mr Sterling's
:24:10. > :24:13.pot, but that cannot go on indefinitely. The sinner from our
:24:14. > :24:17.perspective normal services resume, that is fine, and if not we very
:24:18. > :24:27.quickly need a devolution bill going beyond Stormont -- the sooner, from
:24:28. > :24:29.our perspective. They want to plan our local economies, assemble land,
:24:30. > :24:34.work with all the government departments. If there is no budget
:24:35. > :24:39.or there is on learning uncertainty, give the councils the power to do
:24:40. > :24:42.the job -- there is looming uncertainty. The rules also mean
:24:43. > :24:47.European farm subsidies cannot be paid out in the normal way. Farmers
:24:48. > :24:53.will still get their money but, again, that will have to come out of
:24:54. > :24:57.his part until such time as a budget is past. You can see how resources
:24:58. > :25:04.will to become squeezed the longer this goes on. If we get as far as
:25:05. > :25:08.July and there is still no budget act, things become extremely
:25:09. > :25:13.serious. At that stage he will have the right to spend an amount
:25:14. > :25:16.equivalent to 95% of this year's budget right across the financial
:25:17. > :25:25.year. In effect, that will mean cuts of at least 5% across the entire
:25:26. > :25:29.public service. Even if it does not come to that it is clear budgetary
:25:30. > :25:36.uncertainty will cause problems for the biggest part of that service. I
:25:37. > :25:40.have acknowledged the Department of Health faces real difficulties in
:25:41. > :25:45.this scenario, because the quality of service provided will depend on
:25:46. > :25:50.the pattern of spend which the department is allowed to incur from
:25:51. > :25:56.the beginning of April, so some big decisions would be to be taken
:25:57. > :26:00.around that. Why is this budgetary uncertainty such a pronounced
:26:01. > :26:04.problem for the health service. It may be partly because in the current
:26:05. > :26:07.year health has had extra funds, as one off, and has to start the New
:26:08. > :26:14.Year without those, or it may be because they have expenditure coming
:26:15. > :26:17.in the first month. It is a domestic problem is not anticipated by
:26:18. > :26:23.keeping the machine running as it was. At some point, the situation
:26:24. > :26:28.will become critical, and a direct minister will have to step into pass
:26:29. > :26:34.a budget, but Mr Sterling would not be drawn on when that might be. All
:26:35. > :26:43.I can see is the earlier we can have an executive in place and decisions
:26:44. > :26:53.taken on a budget for next year, the better -- all I can say.
:26:54. > :26:58.Realistically that will emerge in July and somebody will have to pass
:26:59. > :26:59.a budget, but will it be the Secretary of State?
:27:00. > :27:01.John Campbell there, and with me now is Seamus McAleavey,
:27:02. > :27:04.You've underscored the need for functional
:27:05. > :27:06.government and stability - how difficult is all this
:27:07. > :27:09.uncertainty around the budget for the organisations you work with?
:27:10. > :27:19.It is a really bad situation, Mark. John Campbell spoke about 5%. That
:27:20. > :27:25.comes to about ?600 million, 5%, in the Northern Ireland budget.
:27:26. > :27:27.Voluntary organisations deliver about for ?9 of services, across a
:27:28. > :27:32.broad range, children's services, mental health, a broad range of
:27:33. > :27:40.services that touch every department -- about ?4 million. When they start
:27:41. > :27:42.holding back, our worry is all those things get squeezed and our
:27:43. > :27:46.organisations find themselves running out of money a lot quicker I
:27:47. > :27:48.think than organisations in the public sector, so I really difficult
:27:49. > :27:57.situation. You've spoken to the Department
:27:58. > :27:59.of Finance and asked for uncertainty to be kept to a minimum to prevent
:28:00. > :28:02.unnecessary job losses. Were you reassured by what you heard
:28:03. > :28:06.back from officials? I spoke to the permanent secretary,
:28:07. > :28:11.David Sterling, mentioned in the report. He recognises the position,
:28:12. > :28:14.he understands how his colleagues across all departments, all cautious
:28:15. > :28:18.people, how they perform. Certainly on his side he understands, and what
:28:19. > :28:20.he says is they will encourage departments to meet their
:28:21. > :28:25.commitments to organisations that are in an ongoing in two-year
:28:26. > :28:28.relationship, but many of those relationships are probably coming to
:28:29. > :28:32.an end and the danger is a large number of them literally will not
:28:33. > :28:37.get renewed, or will not have any notion about when that will happen.
:28:38. > :28:40.Are organisations now preparing to make people redundant?
:28:41. > :28:47.Is that your fear? Absolutely, because what happens is voluntary
:28:48. > :28:53.organisations are generally these companies are covered by charity law
:28:54. > :28:58.and cannot incur liability they do not have the wherewithal to meet so
:28:59. > :29:01.their boards have to make decisions. Without cash reserves to keep them
:29:02. > :29:02.going, they have to make decisions not to incur liabilities.
:29:03. > :29:12.We do not want to engage in scaremongering, but obviously this
:29:13. > :29:16.is a very serious situation, as you pointed out. Over 30,000 people are
:29:17. > :29:23.employed by voluntary organisations in Northern Ireland. I cannot put a
:29:24. > :29:26.number on it. It would be wrong, I think, to scaremonger as well,
:29:27. > :29:31.because what we are hoping for is as much mitigation that people in the
:29:32. > :29:34.departments, permanent secretaries as those with them, will actually
:29:35. > :29:40.spend that money. Because I do not think the crisis can last that long.
:29:41. > :29:44.Are we speaking about hundreds or potentially thousands of jobs?
:29:45. > :29:50.Thousands of jobs. We had some difficulty in 2015-16 with the
:29:51. > :29:53.budget. It was cut generally across departments by 10%. Instantly a lot
:29:54. > :29:56.of departments cut their funding to voluntary organisations because it
:29:57. > :30:05.was the easy thing for them to do and that was hundreds and hundreds
:30:06. > :30:16.of jobs under threat. Stay with us, Seamus because I want to bring you
:30:17. > :30:23.and Deirdre in at this stage. You dealt with this issue before,
:30:24. > :30:31.Newton, and did not paint a particularly rosy picture? Yes, they
:30:32. > :30:35.will be under pressure to do so. Deirdre, you were involved in this,
:30:36. > :30:40.drawing .com and you know about health and social care. What are the
:30:41. > :30:45.budgetary imprecations of we are on that sector -- in drawing this up.
:30:46. > :30:48.Yes, we agreed a programme of reform, transformation, and the
:30:49. > :30:52.health service is like fixing a jumbo jet in flight. We need to do
:30:53. > :30:59.that alongside business as usual. There was momentum and clinicians
:31:00. > :31:02.were ready to go and now we seem to be on hold indefinitely and that
:31:03. > :31:07.cannot exist in Northern Ireland because we are wasting money on a
:31:08. > :31:11.daily basis in health care. A final sentence from you, Seamus. What is
:31:12. > :31:14.your final sentence to senior civil servants who might be watching
:31:15. > :31:17.tonight? I think they have to take the decisions that keep everything
:31:18. > :31:21.going. I think the politicians have to realise this cannot be left a
:31:22. > :31:26.long time, it has to be fixed very quickly. Civil servants cannot be
:31:27. > :31:30.left in charge of a budget alone. Thank you very much indeed.
:31:31. > :31:34.Deirdre and Newton, let's move onto a couple of other big stories -
:31:35. > :31:38.His handling of whether or not there is too much focus
:31:39. > :31:41.Well, the DPP and now the police have given him
:31:42. > :31:45.How did he get himself into this situation?
:31:46. > :31:51.Very difficult to say. He became the subject of criticism because he did
:31:52. > :31:56.not intervene in Northern Ireland when we were watching a slow car
:31:57. > :31:59.crash before Christmas. In Scotland and Wales the dead, the devolved
:32:00. > :32:08.ministrations, but he did not. Then that bizarre thing, he said we did
:32:09. > :32:11.not want to rewrite... Yes, in the Telegraph, saying there is no
:32:12. > :32:15.evidence for it. How can he present himself as an honest broker in
:32:16. > :32:22.negotiations? I think he has lost credibility. It is easy to explain
:32:23. > :32:29.how you -- why he is behaving as he has. Soldiers in Iraq and
:32:30. > :32:33.Afghanistan, it has caused this intrusion of an English issue into
:32:34. > :32:38.our peace process. Can he be an honest broker on the side of the
:32:39. > :32:41.election? No, he has damaged his credibility. Whilst it explains what
:32:42. > :32:45.he is doing it does not excuse it. It would have been so easy to find a
:32:46. > :32:49.form of words to dot-macro and the Daily Mail giving out figures saying
:32:50. > :32:52.1000 figures will be prosecuted. He could have challenged that, the
:32:53. > :33:00.evidence was there, very bizarre move on his part and I do not think
:33:01. > :33:03.you can recover. I want to ask you about the Trump invitation, Newton.
:33:04. > :33:06.We know Arlene Foster and Martin invited him back in November. They
:33:07. > :33:10.are of course no longer in office and things are very different. He is
:33:11. > :33:13.now in office doing things many people are uncomfortable with and
:33:14. > :33:17.the invitations used to be no longer on the table? Yes, and they were
:33:18. > :33:20.about to head off to meet the number three in the Chinese Communist
:33:21. > :33:23.Party, 73 million people dead in their own country in the past
:33:24. > :33:28.half-century, so you think you would have to be realistic about the
:33:29. > :33:31.limits of political office besides. Should he be invited in Northern
:33:32. > :33:36.Ireland if we get the new executive up and running again? The criticism
:33:37. > :33:40.Theresa May has attracted because of her unseemly haste in rushing over
:33:41. > :33:43.to America, inviting him for a state visit, and people saying things they
:33:44. > :33:46.never thought they would say, feeling sorry for the Queen,
:33:47. > :33:52.thinking Prince Charles should meet him and speak to him about global
:33:53. > :33:55.warming, or should he be held at Heathrow, and told he cannot as his
:33:56. > :33:58.country has terrorists in it, people are making a joke of it because they
:33:59. > :34:02.cannot believe what is unfolding before their very eyes. Would you
:34:03. > :34:06.shake his hand if he can to Belfast? I am not a Trump fan I think they
:34:07. > :34:09.had to invite him. That's it from The View
:34:10. > :34:11.for this week. Join me for Sunday Politics
:34:12. > :34:14.at 11.35 here on BBC1, when I'll be talking to the Alliance
:34:15. > :34:16.leader, Naomi Long. And with the race to run
:34:17. > :34:19.Stormont well and truly on, we leave you with one long shot
:34:20. > :34:21.who fancies his chances. OK, everyone, have you got
:34:22. > :35:17.your bamboo sticks? If you just paint
:35:18. > :35:22.what you want to paint, I've turned around,
:35:23. > :35:26.my painting washes away.