:00:50. > :00:51.The ballot boxes are being stored ahead of tomorrow morning's count
:00:52. > :00:55.and candidates can look forward to a quiet night with their feet up.
:00:56. > :00:57.But for many of them, it'll be a nervous night.
:00:58. > :01:00.They know they're at the mercy of the voters and for some of them,
:01:01. > :01:03.it could turn out to be the end of the road.
:01:04. > :01:05.On the eve of the count, we'll hear the thoughts
:01:06. > :01:07.of two former MLAs - Sinn Fein's Daithi McKay
:01:08. > :01:11.Plus commentators Fionnuala O'Connor and Alex Kane, and our political
:01:12. > :01:14.Also tonight, we sent our crack correspondent off, fully-equipped,
:01:15. > :01:21.to get some expert predictions ahead of tomorrow's results.
:01:22. > :01:29.I have my whiteboard, my pens and now we just need some pundits. Mike
:01:30. > :01:35.Nesbitt has been under great pressure. Michelle O'Neill's first
:01:36. > :01:37.election, only weeks after she assumed position as the leader of
:01:38. > :01:39.Sinn Fein. And he can make you believe he can
:01:40. > :01:42.read your mind or hover in mid-air, but what does David Meade make
:01:43. > :01:45.of the parties' attempts to persuade He'll be live in the studio
:01:46. > :01:55.a little later to tell us... Now, as we know, voting
:01:56. > :01:59.and punditry goes hand in hand. An election wouldn't be the same
:02:00. > :02:01.without a few predictions along the way from political commentators
:02:02. > :02:04.and party activists alike. Last night, as the election
:02:05. > :02:06.campaign drew to a close, the team at the Slugger O'Toole
:02:07. > :02:08.website organised an event for people to consider
:02:09. > :02:10.what tomorrow's results So we despatched Stephen Walker
:02:11. > :02:26.to take the political temperature... elections is never easy. After all,
:02:27. > :02:29.academics, pollsters and journalists have come unstuck throughout the
:02:30. > :02:32.years, trying to work out the outcome of this election will be
:02:33. > :02:39.difficult because Stormont is moving from 108 MLAs 290. It will not stop
:02:40. > :02:47.us tonight. I have my pens, my whiteboard and now we some pundits.
:02:48. > :02:52.Political observers and activists gather to assess Stormont's runners
:02:53. > :02:58.and riders inside the appropriately named. Horse. How do our panel says
:02:59. > :03:06.the battle? Last time, Arlene Foster's party won 38 seats with
:03:07. > :03:11.Mike Nesbitt securing 16. The constituency profiles that we have
:03:12. > :03:16.looked at, we have the DUP on 32. That is a drop, but all of the big
:03:17. > :03:20.four will experience a drop, the Ulster Unionists are on ten, a
:03:21. > :03:25.disaster for Mike Nesbitt. As future could be in doubt as he came back
:03:26. > :03:35.without result. He could surprise us. Anything around 12 or 13 he be
:03:36. > :03:37.OK, but anything near ten orbital and he could be in serious trouble.
:03:38. > :03:41.Is that opening share? In terms of what the figures will look like a
:03:42. > :03:47.post-election, what is your best guess? It is likely we will end up
:03:48. > :03:51.with the DUP sitting somewhere around 31 and the Ulster Unionist
:03:52. > :03:55.Party around 11. If we are surprised, if people do come out and
:03:56. > :04:00.actually decide to have a go at the DUP and change their allegiance,
:04:01. > :04:05.that could be two or three hour. Do you think the DUP will be happy with
:04:06. > :04:09.that? If they can stay above 31 they will be happy, as they go below
:04:10. > :04:13.that, it will look like a bad result because they have lost that kind of
:04:14. > :04:19.overall control. What then of Sinn Fein and the SDLP. Sinn Fein secures
:04:20. > :04:26.20 seats last time with the SDLP on 12. Quest -- Chris Donnelly was once
:04:27. > :04:30.a Sinn Fein candidate and is now a political commentator. Sinn Fein are
:04:31. > :04:33.going into this quite positive, I think they are looking across a
:04:34. > :04:41.number of constituencies where they do manage to get their vote out,
:04:42. > :04:45.they could get 24 or 25 seats will stop any more conservative since I
:04:46. > :04:50.would go for 24. In a similar sense, the SDLP will also believe they have
:04:51. > :05:01.had a good campaign. I would settle for 12 seats on a good day for them.
:05:02. > :05:04.But it could go 25, 11 412. What do others think, Brendan used to work
:05:05. > :05:09.for the SDLP and the bees that Sinn Fein will get 24 and the SDLP will
:05:10. > :05:15.have 11 MLAs. I think Sinn Fein would be satisfied with that. It is
:05:16. > :05:19.Michelle O'Neill's first election, a new matter of weeks after assuming
:05:20. > :05:24.position as the leader. She would have to be happy with that. Poll
:05:25. > :05:31.position with the nationalism. SDLP? Anywhere near 12 seats or avoiding a
:05:32. > :05:35.huge loss, they would be happy, even coming back with 11 they would be
:05:36. > :05:39.happy. We would be very satisfied with 12 as well. What then of the
:05:40. > :05:46.smaller parties? One observer thinks little will change. The boil has
:05:47. > :05:53.gone off of these parties. People for profit, and TUV also a little
:05:54. > :05:58.stale. The Greens are fighting tooth and nail for East Belfast. Not much
:05:59. > :06:05.going on for the minor parties and it is Adi Jaber for Alliance. Status
:06:06. > :06:09.quo and no big movements. Back inside the Dark Horse and the talk
:06:10. > :06:13.is about who are Stormont's racing certainties? For now the betting is
:06:14. > :06:19.over, tomorrow the winners and losers will be revealed.
:06:20. > :06:24.So, the campaign which Arlene Foster predicted would be "brutal"
:06:25. > :06:27.is in the past and we wait to hear the public's judgment.
:06:28. > :06:30.Tonight we're going to take a bit of time to reflect on the highs
:06:31. > :06:33.and lows of the campaign trail and we're going to engage in a bit
:06:34. > :06:36.of crystal-ball gazing, and if we can't settle on precisely
:06:37. > :06:38.what's likely to happen over the next couple of days,
:06:39. > :06:41.at least we can try to work out what we should be looking for.
:06:42. > :06:45.With me around the table to do just that are two former politicians
:06:46. > :06:47.with plenty of experience of pre-count nerves -
:06:48. > :06:50.I'm also joined by two experienced election watchers -
:06:51. > :06:52.commentators Fionnuala O'Connor and Alex Kane, and by our political
:06:53. > :06:57.The polls closed 40 minutes ago and you've been looking
:06:58. > :06:59.at information that's been coming in all night about turnout
:07:00. > :07:02.What kind of picture are you building up?
:07:03. > :07:07.Firstly, anecdotally, the election officials have said that their staff
:07:08. > :07:13.have had a pretty busiest time. They think this is definitely up on the
:07:14. > :07:19.turn-up of last May which was under 55%. Pretty brisk right across the
:07:20. > :07:25.board. Now, in terms of variation, we have seen as high as nearly 80%
:07:26. > :07:31.in areas like Michelle O'Neill's home patch of mid-Ulster. In Arlene
:07:32. > :07:36.Foster's home patch also good turnout. On the low end, we have
:07:37. > :07:41.seen figures more in the kind of mid-to high 40s in the areas of
:07:42. > :07:47.Lagan Valley, for example. It is hard to know what to make of this.
:07:48. > :07:50.What we are basing these estimates on our notices posted up in the
:07:51. > :07:56.entrances to polling stations with the 9pm turnout figures... You might
:07:57. > :08:00.get one box that represents one area that is not necessarily representing
:08:01. > :08:05.the constituency as whole. But it has been suggested to me that
:08:06. > :08:10.possibly the turn-up has been maybe healthier in nationalist areas than
:08:11. > :08:14.unionist once, possibly in Unionist middle-class areas than in
:08:15. > :08:18.working-class areas as well. This is early days and it is hard to
:08:19. > :08:24.extrapolate anything from this and other boxes are opened tomorrow. You
:08:25. > :08:30.have averages, 55% was the figure last time, there are a lot of things
:08:31. > :08:33.to happen and knowing the turn-up for sure tomorrow. One thing I would
:08:34. > :08:37.like to see, I would like to thank people on social media who are
:08:38. > :08:41.sending in pictures. I have lots of them, lots of sheets. More than my
:08:42. > :08:48.poor mathematical brain can cope with! But certainly what there seems
:08:49. > :08:50.to be is great interest with some of our broadcaster during the course of
:08:51. > :08:54.the campaign and there has been interest in sending these figures
:08:55. > :08:58.and that will be reflected in the interest generally in the voting. It
:08:59. > :09:01.is very early days, does that mean that there will be some parties,
:09:02. > :09:08.some individuals in a little bit more of a sweat tonight than others?
:09:09. > :09:12.Possibly. What do you bite into higher turn-up? During the course of
:09:13. > :09:15.the campaign, Colum Eastwood made the argument with me that FT
:09:16. > :09:19.Connacht could reach the mid-60s, the figure we saw for the EU
:09:20. > :09:23.referendum, that could be good news for the parties of the centre. This
:09:24. > :09:26.goes back to the days when David Campbell talked about getting out
:09:27. > :09:34.those garden centre Unionists who did not normally vote. -- David
:09:35. > :09:38.Trimble. Have voting trends shifted? I am not sure. Others have said
:09:39. > :09:42.extremes have come out on either side. Beginner woman really analyse
:09:43. > :09:48.that once those ballot papers have been taken out of the boxes. One of
:09:49. > :09:52.the many reasons why the moral is so interesting. We will come to
:09:53. > :09:57.Fionnuala O'Connor and Alex Kane shortly. But to Daithi McKay and
:09:58. > :10:01.David McIlveen who have experience of cold nights and what that can
:10:02. > :10:05.mean. David McIlveen firstly, you washed your seat in May, you have
:10:06. > :10:11.been critical of your readers sense. How do you think, listening to what
:10:12. > :10:17.Mark has said, the DUP will do when the votes are counted for real? We
:10:18. > :10:22.will know tomorrow. What we have this last chance of living. The last
:10:23. > :10:26.chance for the DUP. In that there were things going on behind the
:10:27. > :10:32.scenes which had the potential and the reason to make people a little
:10:33. > :10:37.bit less happy about voting but proven on the basis that there was
:10:38. > :10:41.no one else to vote for. However, to hold together for ten months and
:10:42. > :10:43.then put the party in an extremely difficult position because they were
:10:44. > :10:47.fighting an election that they did not want to fight, they were
:10:48. > :10:51.fighting an election that they could not afford to fight and therefore, I
:10:52. > :10:56.think, that will be reflected in the results tomorrow. She had a very
:10:57. > :11:00.strong election last time around. Not too many commentators thought
:11:01. > :11:04.she would go back with a number of seats she returned with. She held
:11:05. > :11:08.firm on Peter Robinson's success the time before. What is the cut-off
:11:09. > :11:15.point for Arlene Foster in terms of what would denote success and what
:11:16. > :11:19.would suggest failure? If they lose the petition of concern numbers, 40
:11:20. > :11:22.below, they are in real trouble. But the problem is that probably for the
:11:23. > :11:27.first time in the history of unionism in Northern Ireland, there
:11:28. > :11:31.really was an election fought on their not being a great alternative
:11:32. > :11:35.one way or another. So I think even of the party does hold its ground
:11:36. > :11:39.tomorrow, it will not be on the basis of a resounding endorsement,
:11:40. > :11:44.because it think it is there to say that when you look at the two
:11:45. > :11:46.leaders of the Unionist parties, compared to elections of the pass
:11:47. > :11:50.which you will remember broadcasting on, which were full of excitement
:11:51. > :11:55.and charisma, if you look at the two Unionist leaders, there is about as
:11:56. > :11:58.much charisma any piece of coffee! We must be honest about that. When
:11:59. > :12:02.the results that are common tomorrow, it will be much on the
:12:03. > :12:07.basis of who I did not want to vote for, rather than who I get. That is
:12:08. > :12:14.a remarkable life and I suspect that will be quoted over the next 24, 48
:12:15. > :12:17.hours. You are still, let us be clear, technically a member of the
:12:18. > :12:21.DUP and you have said that your party leader has as much charisma as
:12:22. > :12:27.a piece of tofu. Do you expect to be in the party for much longer? That
:12:28. > :12:31.will not be my decision, Mark. I am currently a free citizen and I am
:12:32. > :12:35.enjoying life on the other side as I know that Daithi McKay is as well.
:12:36. > :12:40.That allows us to say what we want to say. Is there some sour grapes,
:12:41. > :12:44.do you have an axe to grind? I was inundated with opportunities ten
:12:45. > :12:49.months ago if I wanted to display sour grapes and I intentionally kept
:12:50. > :12:52.my head down, I decided to give all of my former colleagues the chance
:12:53. > :12:56.to get on with the job that they were employed to do, but I think, to
:12:57. > :13:02.be fair, if someone is cynical enough to think that that is the
:13:03. > :13:05.reason behind it, then whether I stay silent for ten months or ten
:13:06. > :13:09.years, they will say the same thing. The bottom line is that it does not
:13:10. > :13:15.take away my right to have an opinion and certainly, I am quite
:13:16. > :13:18.happy to freely share that. OK, Daithi McKay, to resigned
:13:19. > :13:22.dramatically last August after allegations that you coached Jamie
:13:23. > :13:24.Bryson who is giving evidence to the Finance Committee at Stormont and
:13:25. > :13:30.you left the party. Where are you with Sinn Fein at the moment? I am
:13:31. > :13:34.not in Sinn Fein any more. Would you describe yourself as a Sinn Fein
:13:35. > :13:41.supporter? Well, I am a republican. I can't get progressive republican.
:13:42. > :13:45.Certainly, I will support Sinn Fein when they are going in the right
:13:46. > :13:48.direction but also be constructively critical when I believe they are
:13:49. > :13:53.going in the wrong direction. I think that is a space that needs to
:13:54. > :13:58.be felt, not only by myself but by others. I think that Sinn Fein are
:13:59. > :14:02.any good position the moment and that is because of Arlene Foster,
:14:03. > :14:08.essentially. What Arlene Foster has done by her inexperience and her
:14:09. > :14:14.actions as First Minister, which has been to motivate and to reawaken a
:14:15. > :14:19.dominant republican and nationalist vote. When you listened to Mark
:14:20. > :14:22.Devenport talk about turn-up, what do you extrapolate from that? Is
:14:23. > :14:27.that the nationalist and republican vote potentially coming up? In terms
:14:28. > :14:33.of my own vote in my own constituency I am hearing about big
:14:34. > :14:38.gains, big improvements. So that tells me that the republican core
:14:39. > :14:42.vote is out at this election and they have been motivate -- motivated
:14:43. > :14:46.by the negativity and attacks that if they see on themselves by Arlene
:14:47. > :14:50.Foster by way of our language and our approach to Martin McGuinness.
:14:51. > :14:55.Arlene Foster perhaps thought it was the right strategy and it may have
:14:56. > :15:00.been to motivate the DUP vote but she has also got at the republicans
:15:01. > :15:04.as well. Just to clarify one other thing, the issue that led to your
:15:05. > :15:07.departure remains under investigation and you were
:15:08. > :15:10.questioned by the police one month ago in a fire that we know has been
:15:11. > :15:16.sent to the Public Prosecution Service. That remains a live issue.
:15:17. > :15:22.That is correct, I cannot comment on that. That will play out in due
:15:23. > :15:25.course. Can I ask you about your constituency, some of your
:15:26. > :15:27.supporters and those closer to you in North Antrim were furious with
:15:28. > :15:32.how Sinn Fein handled your departure and one of them stood as an
:15:33. > :15:36.independent today. If you were living in North Antrim, how would
:15:37. > :15:42.you have voted today? That is between me and the ballot box. Would
:15:43. > :15:46.you have backed either of the candidates? I left the party on good
:15:47. > :15:54.terms last year. I spoke to members of the Sinn Fein camp and to the
:15:55. > :15:59.SDLP and others and I think that there is no point in adding to any
:16:00. > :16:01.of the animosity that exists. This happened in political parties, all
:16:02. > :16:04.political parties and hopefully things will calm down. I will not
:16:05. > :16:10.add to any of the animosity that exists. You will not tell me who you
:16:11. > :16:18.voted for in Foyle, where I believe you now live fish two no. Did Sinn
:16:19. > :16:24.Fein do well? One point out to make is the fact that republicans and
:16:25. > :16:30.Nationalists need to work together. One reason that the DUP will not do
:16:31. > :16:33.well perhaps tomorrow is that Sinn Fein voters transverse down the line
:16:34. > :16:39.to make sure that the DUP did not reach the 36.
:16:40. > :16:53.Did you vote North Antrim today? I don't. Robin is a friend. I am not
:16:54. > :16:58.going to go into the details of who I voted but I endorsed Robin. I have
:16:59. > :17:03.worked closely with him in the Assembly. But I transferred to
:17:04. > :17:11.Unionists. You did give him number one. You can assume that. Thank you,
:17:12. > :17:17.Paul. I want to hear from our commentators. I have to ask you
:17:18. > :17:23.about that line. It did leap out at us, David saying that in the two
:17:24. > :17:29.Unionist leaders, there is as much charisma as there is in a piece of
:17:30. > :17:36.tofu, which I would imagine there's not a lot. Tofu is horrible. Do not
:17:37. > :17:43.get into this. He is right. David makes a good point in the campaign.
:17:44. > :17:46.It was from the Unionist point of view the dull campaign, particularly
:17:47. > :17:53.in Arlene Foster's case, because three months ago she said unionism
:17:54. > :17:59.or stronger than it had been for 20 years, unionism was back. Now we are
:18:00. > :18:10.told unionism is weak. Gerry Adams is the bogeyman. What happened was
:18:11. > :18:15.that all she gave unionism was fair, bogeyman. That was her lying at the
:18:16. > :18:20.manifesto launch, that is not how I do business. She did not do any
:18:21. > :18:25.business at all. The business of a party reader is to say, here is a
:18:26. > :18:29.vision that is bigger than just this party, that embraces everyone in
:18:30. > :18:34.Northern Ireland. She did none of that. She pointed the finger and
:18:35. > :18:38.said, be afraid. There may be some indication it is going to backfire.
:18:39. > :18:45.That magic number, even with a high turnout, the DUP will remain the
:18:46. > :18:49.largest party and be just over 30 but that is not an overall Unionist
:18:50. > :18:56.majority in the Assembly Arlene Foster has a big problem. There has
:18:57. > :19:07.been a lot of cynicism in the air. What TUV into that alongside -- what
:19:08. > :19:13.do you think that it looks like more people have come out to vote than
:19:14. > :19:29.voted last May. It does. I was also struck at the difference between
:19:30. > :19:32.Daithi and David. Daithi has called to be bitter and critical and he has
:19:33. > :19:40.not done that, he made the good point that Sinn Fein transfers all
:19:41. > :19:43.the way down to stop the DUP. I am intrigued by the idea of people
:19:44. > :19:49.coming out to vote in Sinn Fein areas who have not come out for some
:19:50. > :19:54.time. They have come out it is motivated by Arlene Foster's cack
:19:55. > :20:02.handedness and arrogance, and the anger, Michelle O'Neill has not had
:20:03. > :20:06.to do much to encourage that. It has not mattered much how she has played
:20:07. > :20:11.the campaign, but she has played it pretty well. Mark said he had spoken
:20:12. > :20:15.to somebody that said if it was a high turnout both ends of the
:20:16. > :20:19.political spectrum have turned out in force, and we know that in and
:20:20. > :20:23.around Michelle O'Neill's home turf the turnout has been high, as it has
:20:24. > :20:32.been an underlying Arlene Foster's. I do not know what both ends of the
:20:33. > :20:36.spectrum means that this may means that if Republican or Unionist votes
:20:37. > :20:51.that have not come out for some time come out, it is possibly coming out
:20:52. > :20:56.of disgust for unionism, and its handling of power-sharing, as what
:20:57. > :21:01.never became our shilling, what Sinn Fein does next, that is a problem
:21:02. > :21:05.for them, how they handle that the negotiations. That will be something
:21:06. > :21:11.we have to do which it looks like this may be. That is the challenge
:21:12. > :21:17.because we want to have a word about what will happen next. Crunching the
:21:18. > :21:20.numbers will be fascinating. Then we get into the serious business of
:21:21. > :21:24.politics. We have a three-week window in which there will be an
:21:25. > :21:27.attempt to get started up and running again. People are not
:21:28. > :21:30.terribly optimistic that that will happen and then we are in the
:21:31. > :21:37.uncharted waters I refer to in the introduction. Absolutely. The
:21:38. > :21:42.situation will be the 90 MLAs will get their offices at the start of
:21:43. > :21:46.next week, coincidental with that we will probably have the start of
:21:47. > :21:49.talks with the British Government, the Secretary of State pressing the
:21:50. > :21:53.parties to try to do some kind of a deal. They will have to have their
:21:54. > :21:57.first meeting by not Monday of next week, but Monday the following week,
:21:58. > :22:03.that'll be a meeting where by the label signed the book, and two weeks
:22:04. > :22:05.on from that they should elect the First Minister and Deputy First
:22:06. > :22:09.Minister, but we know that Michelle O'Neill has said she will not share
:22:10. > :22:14.power with Arlene Foster until this inquiry has no got under way into
:22:15. > :22:19.the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal is completed. A minimum of six
:22:20. > :22:24.months, it could be one year before that is completed, that seems to be
:22:25. > :22:28.an insuperable problem, unless the DUP has a new reader puts in a
:22:29. > :22:33.caretaker or whatever. Assuming that none of that happens and the three
:22:34. > :22:38.weeks run say theoretically we are back into another election. But I
:22:39. > :22:42.was talking to somebody to be who said do not expect necessarily that
:22:43. > :22:45.the Secretary of State will move quite as quickly in those
:22:46. > :22:48.circumstances as he did previously when he called this election. He was
:22:49. > :22:52.quick out of the blocks and said, let us get on with it and clear the
:22:53. > :22:56.air and have the election. I think it is possible that they may try to
:22:57. > :23:01.play it a little bit longer after that period of time runs out, which
:23:02. > :23:05.is at the end of March, in order to see somehow along the way they can
:23:06. > :23:13.get some kind of pro-dash-mac some kind of progress. A previous
:23:14. > :23:17.judgment said he had to act only in a reasonable period of time. What
:23:18. > :23:22.are you hearing from former colleagues in DUP in Westminster,
:23:23. > :23:25.technically you are still in the party, what are they saying about
:23:26. > :23:30.Arlene Foster's leadership and her future of that figure dips below the
:23:31. > :23:36.30 that you refer to in their opening comments. What I am hearing,
:23:37. > :23:44.I have DUP in my DNA, Ian Paisley was an inspiration to my life, I
:23:45. > :23:48.still look on him with immense respect, my concern at the minute is
:23:49. > :23:53.the direction in which the party is going. I think that is sheared with
:23:54. > :23:56.many of my colleagues and former colleagues within the party. This is
:23:57. > :24:03.an issue with leadership. This is an issue with how decisions are made,
:24:04. > :24:07.the decision making process has been taken away from the elected
:24:08. > :24:10.representatives, that has to change. That has to be built upon into the
:24:11. > :24:15.future to make sure that we do not find ourselves in a position where
:24:16. > :24:18.advisers are wielding more power than those that are elected that the
:24:19. > :24:23.ballot box and that is where I fear we find ourselves at the moment.
:24:24. > :24:31.Will she still be leader on Monday? I do not think so. I have been on
:24:32. > :24:36.the record for some time. I believe that unfortunately she is being
:24:37. > :24:43.viewed as an electoral liability. There is not the same upbeat feeling
:24:44. > :24:52.within the ranks of the party. Not the same as what there was when
:24:53. > :24:57.Peter Robinson was in charge. Michelle O'Neill is still in her
:24:58. > :25:03.honeymoon period, she is not permitted beautifully drawn at this
:25:04. > :25:07.time. If she has a bad election it cannot be her fault, she has a good
:25:08. > :25:11.election she can take credit for that, I think Sinn Fein could
:25:12. > :25:16.increase the number of seats, but the challenge will be negotiations,
:25:17. > :25:22.they should not go back into Government to quickly, they have to
:25:23. > :25:26.deliver on an Irish act. Thank you for joining us. Three of you will
:25:27. > :25:28.stay with us and we will talk again soon.
:25:29. > :25:32.Well, the relatively brief election campaign has put the political
:25:33. > :25:33.parties under pressure to get their particular
:25:34. > :25:36.One of the most reliable formats, of course,
:25:37. > :25:39.All of the main parties produced one, though
:25:40. > :25:41.the Greens - appropriately - recycled theirs from last year
:25:42. > :25:51.There now follows a party political broadcast. Just last me you gave my
:25:52. > :25:56.party a mandate to meet Northern Ireland and I was honoured to become
:25:57. > :26:05.your First Minister. This is the type of positive change that the
:26:06. > :26:08.Assembly can help to deliver. This election is important. Your vote
:26:09. > :26:15.will determine whether Northern Ireland moves forward or back. I am
:26:16. > :26:20.not surprised. It sounds like Northern Ireland needs changing. You
:26:21. > :26:27.are absolutely right. And it has to start at Stormont. Stand with Sinn
:26:28. > :26:38.Fein. On March the 2nd vote Sinn Fein. Institutions we once believed
:26:39. > :26:45.this table are now at risk. No more than ever we need change that can
:26:46. > :26:49.Unite us rather than divide us. Less than one year ago the Green Party's
:26:50. > :26:54.election broadcast was about storm wasting your money. We are going to
:26:55. > :27:00.show it to you again because they are still wasting your money. But
:27:01. > :27:09.you need to grasp this opportunity. You need to vote. On March the 2nd
:27:10. > :27:14.vote Alliance Party. Things do not have to stay stuck as they are, on
:27:15. > :27:17.the 2nd of March you will give your verdict. We cannot go on like this.
:27:18. > :27:22.It is time to drain Stormont swamp. Jim Allister getting his message
:27:23. > :27:25.across in no uncertain terms there. But just how effective are our
:27:26. > :27:28.political parties at communicating We've been joined now
:27:29. > :27:31.by David Meade - entertainer, motivational speaker and mentalist
:27:32. > :27:35.extraordinaire - fresh from the stage
:27:36. > :27:37.of the MAC in Belfast. Was there any talk
:27:38. > :27:46.about politics tonight? Absolutely. The last ten minutes of
:27:47. > :27:51.my sure looked specifically at RHI, we have a fun and interactive but
:27:52. > :27:54.that sums that story up in a way that people may not expect. I did a
:27:55. > :27:59.straw poll and only 25% admitted that they did not vote. A straw poll
:28:00. > :28:04.but nonetheless big engagement in my room tonight. That is interesting.
:28:05. > :28:08.What we wanted to tease out is how successful our politicians are at
:28:09. > :28:12.communicating their messages. You have looked at party election
:28:13. > :28:17.broadcast. Are they good at it or not? The last two years has seen a
:28:18. > :28:20.step change. No they are taking the psychology of communication and the
:28:21. > :28:26.political space more seriously than in the past. 3-5 years ago party
:28:27. > :28:29.political broadcasts were predictable but in the last while we
:28:30. > :28:33.have seen a real change. When you look at some of those party election
:28:34. > :28:38.broadcast, you can see what Arlene Foster is trying to do, she is at a
:28:39. > :28:44.children's birthday party, pretty landscapes of Belfast, the message
:28:45. > :28:48.of Green the swamp, equality, whatever, but are at their
:28:49. > :29:02.subliminal messages as well? The grievous one is in Sinn Fein's, the
:29:03. > :29:15.use or smelly people in jobs as -- the ordinarily people behaving in a
:29:16. > :29:33.certain way. Whenever we get into the discussion... When we see party
:29:34. > :29:40.members wearing blue, does that been anything? Some of the things that
:29:41. > :29:46.diagnosis in the leadership debate, no votes are one, but some votes are
:29:47. > :29:50.lost in debates like that. Anybody speaking like this in the middle of
:29:51. > :29:55.a sentence, stats that sentence and has no idea how it is ending, they
:29:56. > :29:59.are hoping they will find the words halfway through. What about the
:30:00. > :30:05.concept of negative electioneering? A lot of people did see, we do not
:30:06. > :30:09.want to dirty our hands with that. It is fascinating. People campaign
:30:10. > :30:15.about negative electioneering. It is the only thing that works. We love
:30:16. > :30:17.bad news. It is delicious and adhesive to us. It is four times
:30:18. > :30:24.more likely to be remembered and acted upon. Particularly from me
:30:25. > :30:27.look at the DUP campaign emphasises Gerry Adams, it is called the
:30:28. > :30:31.contrast principle, start with something potentially negative to a
:30:32. > :30:36.lot of their electorate, then follow up with a soft and gentle message,
:30:37. > :30:39.stick with what you know, that is one of the most proven psychological
:30:40. > :30:47.principles, whether at the ballot box or anywhere else.
:30:48. > :30:53.In sophisticated and how we do politics, the idea that we have got
:30:54. > :30:58.better of it actually rings true? No. I think we are much too
:30:59. > :31:07.sophisticated to believe in stuff like colours that people were. Body
:31:08. > :31:11.bang, we have always known that. But we are better at tactical voting. So
:31:12. > :31:20.the electorate is more sophisticated than politicians? They always were.
:31:21. > :31:23.It is not being a sophisticated situation that they have found
:31:24. > :31:28.themselves in! Is that fair, Alex Kane? David is correct, you can
:31:29. > :31:32.teach them all of the tracks, but when they come up against people
:31:33. > :31:35.like you and Stephen Nolan, and I have found that with all
:31:36. > :31:45.politicians, the mud of the party, the minute they are at a difficult
:31:46. > :31:49.question or point to something, they start to fall and then you just take
:31:50. > :31:54.them apart. And at the end of that interview got back stop flattering
:31:55. > :32:02.and! They could just answer the question. The create problems by
:32:03. > :32:05.avoiding answering the question. The only information you give to the
:32:06. > :32:09.interviewer is what you want them together. You have failed in the
:32:10. > :32:13.interview if you are the interviewee and you start to give away things
:32:14. > :32:16.that you do not want to give away. David is correct, you can do it with
:32:17. > :32:21.ties and everything but unless you can handle that question, you are
:32:22. > :32:24.stopped. I think we should have got David in to do some of the political
:32:25. > :32:30.interviews, could have happened to tie some of them and the politicians
:32:31. > :32:34.could have told us the truth. I will not look into his eyes just in case!
:32:35. > :32:40.Don't worry, Mark, I do not work without invite! Which is better,
:32:41. > :32:45.strong message, bad delivery or a weak message with the good
:32:46. > :32:50.deliberate? Good delivery is more important. Look at Donald Trump,
:32:51. > :32:53.repetition. We are seeing that time and again. Repetition is one thing
:32:54. > :32:56.that drives votes more than anything. OK. Fascinating stuff.
:32:57. > :33:00.Join me tomorrow from 1:30pm, here on BBC One, for full coverage
:33:01. > :33:02.of the results as they come in throughout the day.
:33:03. > :33:05.I'll be here with Mark and Tara and our team of reporters at every
:33:06. > :33:12.For now, though, we leave you with a look back at some
:33:13. > :33:15.of the lighter moments of what has been a short, sharp and sometimes
:33:16. > :33:43.I do not think we will go to this one. I have been struck down with
:33:44. > :33:52.the called, also called man flu. Very bad. Do you have a name for
:33:53. > :34:05.this? If you feed a crocodile, it will come back and look for more.
:34:06. > :34:15.Just by surprise we have met my doppelgangers. James, great to meet
:34:16. > :34:43.him. He is going back to Northern Ireland, I will remain in London.
:34:44. > :34:51.It was not disappointing, it was reaffirming. I always thought that
:34:52. > :34:54.man flu was an invented disease, I have to tell you.
:34:55. > :35:02.CHEERING . Where the current or former
:35:03. > :35:14.politician, not from your own party do you most admire and why? Giving
:35:15. > :35:21.you a hard time. I should get you to sort it out.