:00:08. > :00:10.Tonight on The Wales Report, we are at Westminster for a special
:00:11. > :00:11.Tonight on The Wales Report, we are programme on today's
:00:12. > :00:14.at Westminster for a special programme on today's Budget. Who are
:00:15. > :00:14.the winners and losers, and what does
:00:15. > :00:15.the winners and losers, and what the winners and losers, and what
:00:16. > :00:18.does Brexit mean for the Chancellor's plans? Stay with us for
:00:19. > :00:19.a special edition Chancellor's plans? Stay with us for
:00:20. > :00:25.a special edition of The Wales Report.
:00:26. > :00:41.What does the Budget mean to us in Wales? An extra ?200
:00:42. > :00:47.What does the Budget mean to us in Wales? An extra ?200 million over
:00:48. > :00:51.four years. No detail on a city deal for Swansea. And controversially,
:00:52. > :00:55.the increase in national insurance contributions for self-employed
:00:56. > :00:55.people. I am joined by a panel of parliamentarians here in the
:00:56. > :00:55.people. I am joined by a panel of parliamentarians here in the studio.
:00:56. > :01:02.You can have your say. With me tonight is Guto Bebb,
:01:03. > :01:04.Wales Office Minister Jo Stevens, the Labour MP
:01:05. > :01:07.for Cardiff Central. For the Liberal Democrats,
:01:08. > :01:09.Baroness Jenny Randerson. And we have Hywel Williams,
:01:10. > :01:11.Plaid Cymru MP for Arfon. Many thanks to you all
:01:12. > :01:14.for being here this evening. I'm going to start, Guto, with you.
:01:15. > :01:22.There are clear indications I'm going to start, Guto, with you.
:01:23. > :01:27.There are clear indications that the Conservative party has broken a
:01:28. > :01:30.clear manifesto promise in this national insurance policy - true or
:01:31. > :01:30.false? You national insurance policy - true or
:01:31. > :01:31.false? You like national insurance policy - true or
:01:32. > :01:36.false? You like it is fair to say that the manifesto did say clearly
:01:37. > :01:40.there would not that the manifesto did say clearly
:01:41. > :01:42.there would not be an increase in national insurance contributions, so
:01:43. > :01:47.the change to class for is a manifesto breach. In the context of
:01:48. > :01:50.someone who has been self-employed for 16 years, the real unfairness
:01:51. > :01:50.for the self-employed was the way they were
:01:51. > :01:51.for the self-employed was the way they were treated when it came to
:01:52. > :01:55.their pensions. they were treated when it came to
:01:56. > :01:58.their pensions. If you were self-employed before we brought in
:01:59. > :01:58.the single tier state pension, you would
:01:59. > :02:00.the single tier state pension, you the single tier state pension, you
:02:01. > :02:01.would get a pension that was about ?40 a week less than you
:02:02. > :02:05.would get a pension that was about ?40 a week less than you would if
:02:06. > :02:06.you are an employee paying class one national insurance. That has been
:02:07. > :02:07.dealt with national insurance. That has been
:02:08. > :02:12.dealt with and we get the same pension when we retire. There is an
:02:13. > :02:20.argument in favour of saying the benefits are recolonised, that there
:02:21. > :02:22.should be more even payments. Class four will go up to 10%,
:02:23. > :02:23.should be more even payments. Class four will go up to 10%, which is
:02:24. > :02:25.should be more even payments. Class four will go up to 10%, which is
:02:26. > :02:26.still less than what the employee pay, but it is going up to
:02:27. > :02:29.still less than what the employee pay, but it is going up to reflect
:02:30. > :02:32.the fact that the pension contribution is significantly more.
:02:33. > :02:37.It won't be very welcome, and it should be highlighted that no one
:02:38. > :02:44.earning less than ?16,000 will pay a penny more. In order to pay more
:02:45. > :02:50.tax, someone self-employed must be earning over ?31,000. Not perfect,
:02:51. > :02:52.but I understand the rationale. You have provided a lot of context,
:02:53. > :02:53.which is useful for the discussion, You have provided a lot of context,
:02:54. > :02:58.which is useful for the discussion, but if I can condense it, in a way
:02:59. > :03:03.you might not like, it is a broken promise but it is worth it in the
:03:04. > :03:07.cause of fairness? The changes we have made in terms of pensions are
:03:08. > :03:09.cause of fairness? The changes we have made in terms of pensions are
:03:10. > :03:13.more significant than the cost of this change. Denying that the
:03:14. > :03:27.manifesto in 2015 said no increases in national insurance? No, I'm not
:03:28. > :03:30.denying it. The benefits for the self-employed and the employed are
:03:31. > :03:32.different, and the Chancellor announced we would look at that to
:03:33. > :03:34.equalise those announced we would look at that to
:03:35. > :03:39.equalise those benefits. Jo, Labour's position is what? Are you
:03:40. > :03:41.saying, we understand fairness argument, that this had to be dealt
:03:42. > :03:41.with and argument, that this had to be dealt
:03:42. > :03:42.with and that therefore this move argument, that this had to be dealt
:03:43. > :03:46.with and that therefore this move is wise one? We understand it was
:03:47. > :03:46.with and that therefore this move is wise one? We understand it was a
:03:47. > :03:52.broken promise. wise one? We understand it was a
:03:53. > :03:58.broken promise. If there was going to be a rise, it could have been
:03:59. > :04:00.targeted at the highest earners, instead of which, it has been aimed
:04:01. > :04:01.at the lowest earning self-employed instead of which, it has been aimed
:04:02. > :04:03.at the lowest earning self-employed people. What we saw from the
:04:04. > :04:05.Chancellor was people. What we saw from the
:04:06. > :04:10.Chancellor was a big post about a reduction in unemployment, but 80%
:04:11. > :04:13.of that production are people who have gone into self-employment
:04:14. > :04:13.because they can get a job. And the average
:04:14. > :04:16.because they can get a job. And the because they can get a job. And the
:04:17. > :04:18.average earnings for someone who is self-employed is ?11,000 a year, so
:04:19. > :04:20.this is another hit on the least self-employed is ?11,000 a year, so
:04:21. > :04:27.this is another hit on the least wealthy, the poorest, who are really
:04:28. > :04:29.trying hard. Taxi drivers, hairdressers, builders, people the
:04:30. > :04:35.Tories say they are supposed to stand up for. There has been a lot
:04:36. > :04:36.of talk about encouraging people to start businesses and to be
:04:37. > :04:38.entrepreneurial start businesses and to be
:04:39. > :04:42.entrepreneurial and all the rest, and the self-employed ethos is part
:04:43. > :04:49.of that. What message does this give? Absolutely, it is an important
:04:50. > :04:52.issue. The ?11,000 average, they won't pay a penny more, because no
:04:53. > :04:53.one earning under ?16,000 will pay a won't pay a penny more, because no
:04:54. > :04:54.one earning under ?16,000 will pay a penny more.
:04:55. > :05:04.one earning under ?16,000 will pay a penny more. In relation but like
:05:05. > :05:11.someone and ?5,000 would be paying class two, and we are saving them a
:05:12. > :05:16.a year. This is fair. Those earning over 45,000, that 2% rate is exactly
:05:17. > :05:18.the same as for those in employment. We have a tiered way of paying
:05:19. > :05:18.the same as for those in employment. We have a tiered way of paying
:05:19. > :05:27.National Insurance. We have a tiered way of paying
:05:28. > :05:31.National Insurance. A view from Jenny and Hywel - do you accept
:05:32. > :05:36.National Insurance. A view from Jenny and Hywel - do you accept the
:05:37. > :05:39.rationale? He seems to be saying that we are increasing national
:05:40. > :05:39.insurance buzz it doesn't matter because we
:05:40. > :05:42.insurance buzz it doesn't matter because we have -- but it doesn't
:05:43. > :05:43.matter because we have -- but it doesn't
:05:44. > :05:47.matter because we have these measures in place. People earning
:05:48. > :05:53.over 16,000, it clearly does matter. So much of the Welsh economy is in
:05:54. > :05:55.the self-employed sector, with single people or perhaps
:05:56. > :06:00.partnerships, very small businesses, so I would say that if there is
:06:01. > :06:02.going to be a hit, it will hit us hard. Would you vote against the? We
:06:03. > :06:04.will have to see when we hard. Would you vote against the? We
:06:05. > :06:04.will have to see when we discuss it in the debate.
:06:05. > :06:14.will have to see when we discuss it in the debate. What would persuade
:06:15. > :06:15.you to vote against this? National insurance is regressive and has been
:06:16. > :06:18.seen in the past as job destroying. insurance is regressive and has been
:06:19. > :06:19.seen in the past as job destroying. If you are going to go
:06:20. > :06:21.seen in the past as job destroying. If you are going to go over the
:06:22. > :06:23.16,000 harrier to be paying If you are going to go over the
:06:24. > :06:25.16,000 harrier to be paying more, there are lots of reasons to oppose
:06:26. > :06:28.it. Lots of conditions there are lots of reasons to oppose
:06:29. > :06:28.it. Lots of conditions and qualifications,
:06:29. > :06:29.it. Lots of conditions and it. Lots of conditions and
:06:30. > :06:32.qualifications, Jenny, as we have heard. Basically, is this a policy
:06:33. > :06:34.you can upload or not as heard. Basically, is this a policy
:06:35. > :06:35.you can upload or not as Lib Dems? It is not. The Tories
:06:36. > :06:36.you can upload or not as Lib Dems? It is not. The Tories have sold
:06:37. > :06:39.you can upload or not as Lib Dems? It is not. The Tories have sold
:06:40. > :06:44.themselves traditionally as the party of small business, and here
:06:45. > :06:44.they are breaking a fundamental promise to
:06:45. > :06:45.they are breaking a fundamental promise to small business
:06:46. > :06:47.they are breaking a fundamental promise to small business people. It
:06:48. > :06:52.is worse than that - they are doing it at a time when we are desperate
:06:53. > :06:53.to encourage people to be as entrepreneurial as possible, to
:06:54. > :06:55.encourage people to go out entrepreneurial as possible, to
:06:56. > :06:55.encourage people to go out and earn a decent
:06:56. > :07:00.encourage people to go out and earn a decent living because of the
:07:01. > :07:01.impact that Brexit is going to have a decent living because of the
:07:02. > :07:01.impact that Brexit is going to have on the
:07:02. > :07:05.impact that Brexit is going to have on the Welsh economy. We have got to
:07:06. > :07:07.use every tool in our on the Welsh economy. We have got to
:07:08. > :07:08.use every tool in our tool box in order to try and withstand the shock
:07:09. > :07:08.use every tool in our tool box in order to try and withstand the shock
:07:09. > :07:11.that that order to try and withstand the shock
:07:12. > :07:16.that that will bring to our economy. You make that point clear. We have a
:07:17. > :07:18.range of views. One of the announcement today, and the few
:07:19. > :07:23.mentions of Wales announcement today, and the few
:07:24. > :07:29.mentions of Wales in the speech, the ?200 million of extra money. Jo, for
:07:30. > :07:34.people watching, where will this money go? I listened to the whole
:07:35. > :07:35.speech, I was in the chamber money go? I listened to the whole
:07:36. > :07:38.speech, I was in the chamber for it, and I started out thinking it was
:07:39. > :07:39.thin and disappointing, and I and I started out thinking it was
:07:40. > :07:39.thin and disappointing, and I certainly wasn't
:07:40. > :07:42.thin and disappointing, and I certainly wasn't disappointed. There
:07:43. > :07:45.was very little in this Budget for Wales today. Some of that
:07:46. > :07:48.was very little in this Budget for Wales today. Some of that money had
:07:49. > :07:50.already been announced previously, and we have seen a Budget for the
:07:51. > :07:51.Welsh Government cut in real terms and we have seen a Budget for the
:07:52. > :07:52.Welsh Government cut in real terms since 2010 by 8%. This is
:07:53. > :07:53.Welsh Government cut in real terms since 2010 by 8%. This is a drop in
:07:54. > :07:55.the ocean and is not very since 2010 by 8%. This is a drop in
:07:56. > :07:56.the ocean and is not very much to do since 2010 by 8%. This is a drop in
:07:57. > :08:00.the ocean and is not very much to do anything with. The Welsh Government
:08:01. > :08:01.will make up its mind about how to deal the capital part and how
:08:02. > :08:03.will make up its mind about how to deal the capital part and how to
:08:04. > :08:06.deal with the revenue part, but it is not much to play with. You are
:08:07. > :08:06.clear on the is not much to play with. You are
:08:07. > :08:07.clear on the amount and what is not much to play with. You are
:08:08. > :08:11.clear on the amount and what you think of it, but again, where is the
:08:12. > :08:17.priority to use this money, in your view? The Welsh Government may look
:08:18. > :08:20.at business rates again. They previously put ?20 million in to
:08:21. > :08:22.an additional scheme help small businesses, and there was
:08:23. > :08:25.an additional scheme to help with business rate relief. They may look
:08:26. > :08:29.at that, but the pressures on public services in Wales because of that
:08:30. > :08:29.real terms Budget cuts are huge. That small
:08:30. > :08:39.real terms Budget cuts are huge. That small amount of money will have
:08:40. > :08:42.to be spread thinly. Jenny, argue as critical as Jo of the amount and the
:08:43. > :08:46.Welsh profile? I think it is very disappointing, all told. It is
:08:47. > :08:48.particularly disappointing for Wales, which is one of the poorer
:08:49. > :08:52.economies in the Wales, which is one of the poorer
:08:53. > :08:53.economies in the UK. Taiwan to draw out of this the actual amounts of
:08:54. > :08:58.economies in the UK. Taiwan to draw out of this the actual amounts of
:08:59. > :09:04.money. For example, ?50 million over format years for infrastructure.
:09:05. > :09:07.Now, that is absolute peanuts. That goes absolutely nowhere when you are
:09:08. > :09:21.talking about repairing the A55 and improving that road, this south
:09:22. > :09:23.wales metro, M4 relief measures. It is a minute amount of money over
:09:24. > :09:25.format years. The amount of is a minute amount of money over
:09:26. > :09:26.format years. The amount of money for the revenue Budget would not
:09:27. > :09:35.make the for the revenue Budget would not
:09:36. > :09:42.make the difference to the NHS that is needed. ?200 million over format
:09:43. > :09:42.years, peanuts according to the Lib Dems
:09:43. > :09:46.years, peanuts according to the Lib years, peanuts according to the Lib
:09:47. > :09:54.Dems - your perspective? That is ?400 million to do up Buckingham
:09:55. > :09:55.Palace, 5 billion to do up the Palace of Westminster, ?200 million
:09:56. > :10:00.Wales. Palace of Westminster, ?200 million
:10:01. > :10:02.Wales. We are looking at things like health and education, where
:10:03. > :10:05.inflation is higher than the general economy and there are huge pressures
:10:06. > :10:07.because of the nature of our population, so it isn't a lot.
:10:08. > :10:07.because of the nature of our population, so it isn't a lot. I
:10:08. > :10:09.welcome population, so it isn't a lot. I
:10:10. > :10:14.welcome every extra pound. We need a good deal more. Notwithstanding your
:10:15. > :10:17.concerns about the, where should the money be spent and what can Welsh
:10:18. > :10:18.voters expect to see different after money be spent and what can Welsh
:10:19. > :10:26.voters expect to see different after this money is spent? I have no idea.
:10:27. > :10:31.The butter will have to be fed the spread very thinly indeed. There are
:10:32. > :10:32.pressures on health. Social care is another, but this money won't go
:10:33. > :10:32.pressures on health. Social care is another, but this money won't go
:10:33. > :10:37.very far. another, but this money won't go
:10:38. > :10:44.very far. There is money for a somethings, Guto, where should this
:10:45. > :10:47.be spent? You highlighted that this is the last spring Budget, and the
:10:48. > :10:51.reason is we will have an Autumn Statement in future. The Chancellor
:10:52. > :10:51.is clear that the two things should be
:10:52. > :10:54.is clear that the two things should is clear that the two things should
:10:55. > :10:58.be merged into one, so there is ?700 million of extra capital spending
:10:59. > :11:03.announced in December for the Welsh Government. I'm sure they wouldn't
:11:04. > :11:04.refer to that is peanuts. We now have another ?200 million coming in
:11:05. > :11:07.in terms of revenue spending, so in have another ?200 million coming in
:11:08. > :11:07.in terms of revenue spending, so in less than
:11:08. > :11:12.in terms of revenue spending, so in less than four months, the Welsh
:11:13. > :11:12.Government Budget has been increased by almost ?1
:11:13. > :11:16.Government Budget has been increased by almost ?1 billion. A fiscal
:11:17. > :11:25.framework for Wales is something that was never delivered by Labour
:11:26. > :11:29.when they were in power. ?700 million from the Autumn Statement,
:11:30. > :11:29.200 million today, it is good news. As
:11:30. > :11:30.200 million today, it is good news. 200 million today, it is good news.
:11:31. > :11:33.As to where it should be spent, the vast majority of the 200 million is
:11:34. > :11:33.As to where it should be spent, the vast majority of the 200 million is
:11:34. > :11:35.the result vast majority of the 200 million is
:11:36. > :11:39.the result of a change to business rates in England. I would ask the
:11:40. > :11:43.Welsh assembly Government to prioritise those two areas. There
:11:44. > :11:44.are businesses in my constituency who would be glad of the support
:11:45. > :11:44.are businesses in my constituency who would be glad of the support
:11:45. > :11:46.that can come their way. In the who would be glad of the support
:11:47. > :11:46.that can come their way. In the same way,
:11:47. > :11:48.that can come their way. In the same that can come their way. In the same
:11:49. > :11:50.way, there we know there are issues that can come their way. In the same
:11:51. > :11:50.way, there we know there are issues with social
:11:51. > :11:54.way, there we know there are issues with social care. Changes in England
:11:55. > :11:54.will result in a barn at consequential
:11:55. > :11:57.will result in a barn at will result in a barn at
:11:58. > :11:59.consequential for Wales. The way the Barnett system works is, you have
:12:00. > :12:00.consequential is Barnett system works is, you have
:12:01. > :12:03.consequential is as a result of increased spending in England. This
:12:04. > :12:06.was a fiscally neutral Budget, so the fact that Wales still gets ?200
:12:07. > :12:10.million is still a very good deal. the fact that Wales still gets ?200
:12:11. > :12:14.million is still a very good deal. So it is ?900 million if you take in
:12:15. > :12:18.the previous statement. The three of you are giving us a misleading
:12:19. > :12:23.picture? If we talk about what we didn't see today, nothing on the
:12:24. > :12:24.Swansea tidal lagoon. There is huge cross-party support for that an
:12:25. > :12:26.Government has sat cross-party support for that an
:12:27. > :12:31.Government has sat on its hands and done nothing with Charles Hendry's
:12:32. > :12:34.report. It is an opportunity for us to become world leaders in marine
:12:35. > :12:41.technology engineering, and the Government is doing. Nothing on the
:12:42. > :12:42.Swansea City deal. We are waiting for projects to deliver jobs and
:12:43. > :12:44.growth, and for projects to deliver jobs and
:12:45. > :12:46.growth, and nothing is happening. That is exactly what I wanted to
:12:47. > :12:53.growth, and nothing is happening. That is exactly what I wanted to
:12:54. > :12:54.raise. The city deal, the lagoon - what does the silence signify today?
:12:55. > :12:59.raise. The city deal, the lagoon - what does the silence signify today?
:13:00. > :13:01.Nothing, there will be a Swansea City deal. The discussions are
:13:02. > :13:04.progressing well and it has been described as a good deal. There are
:13:05. > :13:06.things we want to tweak, but I described as a good deal. There are
:13:07. > :13:09.things we want to tweak, but I am confident there will be a deal. It
:13:10. > :13:11.was never stated that the decision would be made at this Budget. I
:13:12. > :13:13.would remind listeners that when we would be made at this Budget. I
:13:14. > :13:16.would remind listeners that when we set out the Cardiff City deal, the
:13:17. > :13:19.same opponents said there would not be won, and we have ended up with a
:13:20. > :13:22.contribution from the UK Treasury be won, and we have ended up with a
:13:23. > :13:27.contribution from the UK Treasury of one million pounds. They also said
:13:28. > :13:27.they would underwrite the ?600 million of
:13:28. > :13:28.they would underwrite the ?600 million of European funding,
:13:29. > :13:28.they would underwrite the ?600 million of European funding, and yet
:13:29. > :13:30.none of the million of European funding, and yet
:13:31. > :13:35.none of the work on the Metro has commenced. We need money coming from
:13:36. > :13:36.Westminster, additional money on top of the Welsh block grant, but we
:13:37. > :13:38.also need of the Welsh block grant, but we
:13:39. > :13:43.also need to see the Welsh Government starting to spend that
:13:44. > :13:43.money. When we have a city deal for Cardiff weather over ?1 billion,
:13:44. > :13:47.money. When we have a city deal for Cardiff weather over ?1 billion,
:13:48. > :13:48.let's see some action. We will have a deal for West Wales as a
:13:49. > :13:52.let's see some action. We will have a deal for West Wales as a result of
:13:53. > :13:56.the Swansea regional deal. I am confident we will have a growth deal
:13:57. > :14:03.in North Wales in due course as well. For people watching in Swansea
:14:04. > :14:04.and West Wales today, and North Wales, let's take Swansea Festival,
:14:05. > :14:07.will they get news before the end Wales, let's take Swansea Festival,
:14:08. > :14:13.will they get news before the end of the year on that? This fiscal year
:14:14. > :14:14.calendar year? I would be confident in this calendar year. It would be
:14:15. > :14:16.tough to have it before in this calendar year. It would be
:14:17. > :14:21.tough to have it before the end of match. But in the calendar year,
:14:22. > :14:26.there will be a decision. And you are absolutely confident it will
:14:27. > :14:30.come about? The bid we have put together has been described as
:14:31. > :14:33.exciting, wetter than some of the deal is signed in England. There are
:14:34. > :14:38.some issues to be tweaked and improved. It is a bottom- up deal.
:14:39. > :14:41.We're not saying Westminster knows best. We are saying that there are
:14:42. > :14:43.some things best. We are saying that there are
:14:44. > :14:50.some things that are promising and we would like to look at again. I am
:14:51. > :14:53.confident we will have a good deal for Swansea which shows that
:14:54. > :14:54.Westminster not only delivers for the capital city
:14:55. > :14:57.Westminster not only delivers for the capital city of Wales but for
:14:58. > :15:05.the second city. I will come to Hywel, and the North Wales context?
:15:06. > :15:10.The work being put in by the six authorities in North Wales is to be
:15:11. > :15:12.applauded. The group of local authorities looking to improve
:15:13. > :15:16.transport links with the North West of England are doing fantastic work,
:15:17. > :15:19.so we're confident we will deliver the North Wales growth deal. Swansea
:15:20. > :15:22.first, then the North Wales deal. the North Wales growth deal. Swansea
:15:23. > :15:30.first, then the North Wales deal. Confidence on both, - do you share
:15:31. > :15:31.that? We would like to see the deal being made at this time so
:15:32. > :15:31.that? We would like to see the deal being made at this time so we would
:15:32. > :15:33.be confident that it was going ahead being made at this time so we would
:15:34. > :15:36.be confident that it was going ahead in Swansea. There are implications
:15:37. > :15:37.in North Wales because there are plans for a
:15:38. > :15:39.in North Wales because there are plans for a lagoon there as well.
:15:40. > :15:42.One other thing about capital plans for a lagoon there as well.
:15:43. > :15:44.One other thing about capital spending, we still don't have a
:15:45. > :15:45.single spending, we still don't have a
:15:46. > :15:45.single inch of electrified rail in Wales, whatever
:15:46. > :15:55.single inch of electrified rail in Wales, whatever happens. After a
:15:56. > :15:56.Labour Government for many years, a coalition and then a Conservative
:15:57. > :16:05.Government... We know it's on the way but we know
:16:06. > :16:11.it is over budget in England at this point in time. But we know it will
:16:12. > :16:15.arrive. The work has been done on the seven tunnel. Nobody is more
:16:16. > :16:22.frustrated than the on the fact that it is behind budget but we will have
:16:23. > :16:26.faster trains going all the way to Swansea, and it is a commitment I
:16:27. > :16:32.want to take that I understand the frustrations. To bring it to a close
:16:33. > :16:35.here before we move on. On the infrastructure, looking at the
:16:36. > :16:39.Swansea deal which Guto has been positive about, are you confident
:16:40. > :16:43.that we will see this coming to fruition? Is it again something that
:16:44. > :16:49.the Liberal Democrats think is a good template for economic
:16:50. > :16:53.regeneration? I hope it comes in to fruition but we need to keep up the
:16:54. > :16:57.pressure to make sure electrification goes beyond Cardiff
:16:58. > :17:01.to Swansea. Because, it is absolutely essential the job is
:17:02. > :17:09.finished. But, you know, that is just the beginning of the South
:17:10. > :17:15.Wales valleys, we need to get the Metro going and we need the
:17:16. > :17:21.infrastructure investment. We need to be working with UK Government to
:17:22. > :17:26.revitalise that area. And we will need that impetus in the years to
:17:27. > :17:31.come, because of the Brexit shock. You mentioned Brexit, I want to
:17:32. > :17:35.pause for a second there. By the way, electrification for Swansea,
:17:36. > :17:41.people are expecting that, it would be an even better project,
:17:42. > :17:47.obviously! There's no need to go mad, go all the way to Carmarthen.
:17:48. > :17:50.As Jenny mentioned, one of the surprise aspects was very few
:17:51. > :17:54.mentions of the Brexit process. A couple of mentions from the
:17:55. > :17:58.Chancellor at the start of the speech but it is the context for the
:17:59. > :18:03.biggest economic debate of the moment. And the issue that comes up
:18:04. > :18:13.most often is Welsh access, continued access, to the European
:18:14. > :18:15.single market. Two economic experts take us through their views on the
:18:16. > :18:32.next movements... There is no denying that the single
:18:33. > :18:40.market is important to Wales. Something like two thirds of its
:18:41. > :18:45.exports are EU related. But, one must not forget that although it is
:18:46. > :18:51.important to Wales, that the rest of the world is also open to Wales.
:18:52. > :18:55.But, as you said, at the moment two thirds of exports from Wales are
:18:56. > :19:00.into the EU. That is not going to change overnight, just because there
:19:01. > :19:08.might be a shiny new free trade agreement with a country like Korea
:19:09. > :19:12.or Japan. Businesses trade with businesses. Relationships are
:19:13. > :19:16.established over a long period of time. At the moment it is very
:19:17. > :19:21.hassle-free and straightforward. I think it will actually deter smaller
:19:22. > :19:22.businesses from importing or exporting, just because it is more
:19:23. > :19:36.difficult. I think that free movement of labour
:19:37. > :19:42.is very important and vital for British industry. And, it is too
:19:43. > :19:47.simplistic to say that we need to have full control of immigration.
:19:48. > :19:50.Immigration is usually a good thing. We will control immigration simply
:19:51. > :19:55.because we need to have a kind of system that filters the right kind
:19:56. > :20:00.of quality labour that we need, which improves our economy and
:20:01. > :20:07.increases Value added. I do not see immigration necessarily falling, it
:20:08. > :20:17.might even rise, who knows? What I do believe is that there will be
:20:18. > :20:25.control. All of a sudden, those with imported
:20:26. > :20:28.and exported from into the EU, with little paperwork, they will be faced
:20:29. > :20:34.with quite a substantial amount. We would have to be faced with delays,
:20:35. > :20:38.we had to be faced with warehousing, and all associated costs. It needs
:20:39. > :20:42.to be factored in and I'm not sure, at the moment, whether the Welsh
:20:43. > :20:47.economy is prepared for that. If you look at it dispassionately from an
:20:48. > :20:51.economic point of view, removing ourselves from the year, from the
:20:52. > :20:55.customs union, and freeing ourselves to enable us to trade freely with
:20:56. > :20:56.the rest of the world, that would actually be good for Britain and
:20:57. > :21:16.good for Wales. -- a rather intriguing game of chess
:21:17. > :21:21.there. Let's pick up with our guests. Jo, let's pick up with
:21:22. > :21:26.Wales's future outside of the EU. Whether or not there is some sort of
:21:27. > :21:30.access, into the single market, on which we currently depend. Your
:21:31. > :21:33.perspective on this, and how the government is going about it? What I
:21:34. > :21:37.thought was most shocking about the budget today was the absence of any
:21:38. > :21:41.reference to Brexit, it is the biggest thing that will hit our
:21:42. > :21:47.economy in Wales and the UK, there was no mention. The budget speech
:21:48. > :21:49.was trailed with some kind of ?60 billion reserve to protect us
:21:50. > :21:57.through Brexit and there was no mention.
:21:58. > :22:00.It seems if I was someone who worked at Ford, Vauxhall Airbus, and was
:22:01. > :22:03.watching the budget speech today and was thinking about Brexit and market
:22:04. > :22:07.access, I would be really worried, there was nothing to reassure me or
:22:08. > :22:12.the people of Wales that the funding we get from the EU will continue
:22:13. > :22:15.once we leave. Earlier, in this very studio, Paul Johnson of the
:22:16. > :22:19.Institute for Fiscal Studies was here, and when I asked about it, to
:22:20. > :22:24.said it was nonsense. There was no thing as a Brexit war chest. They
:22:25. > :22:28.are busy dealing with the state of public finances. But the point
:22:29. > :22:34.being, there is an issue about how much of the Brexit perspective there
:22:35. > :22:39.was in the speech, even if it was implied? Not explicitly spelt out.
:22:40. > :22:46.For you, Hywel, where does it position Wales? Let's have a
:22:47. > :22:49.specific point. Some farmers will be experiencing a very difficult
:22:50. > :22:53.position when we leave the EU, some of them will be facing paying more
:22:54. > :22:59.national insurance. That's an obvious Brexit issue here. It is not
:23:00. > :23:05.just industry. It is our country areas. And, the system that we have
:23:06. > :23:12.within country areas. The farmer pays the person who runs the garage
:23:13. > :23:17.who pays the guy who fixes things. It has profound implications. I was
:23:18. > :23:21.surprised there was not a lot in there about Brexit. It is the
:23:22. > :23:24.context for everything we do at the moment. There is a prison that
:23:25. > :23:30.everything is viewed through and will be for the next two years at
:23:31. > :23:36.least. And for years after that, as our economy adjusts -- prism. It is
:23:37. > :23:42.a bit disingenuous of the Chancellor, not to put it centre
:23:43. > :23:43.stage. Because, I would say that he is
:23:44. > :23:52.bound to be setting aside money for the times to come. He would not be a
:23:53. > :23:57.sensible Chancellor unless he was doing so. I think if he had not had
:23:58. > :24:02.Brexit full in his view, then he would have been able to spend a
:24:03. > :24:07.great deal more money and invest a great deal more in the economy, in
:24:08. > :24:10.skills, the NHS... Even with a deficit at these levels? Yes, I
:24:11. > :24:18.think he would have felt that the economy was doing well enough to
:24:19. > :24:23.apply some stimulus. Was it a Brexit free speech? All three panellists
:24:24. > :24:26.have already said that Brexit is the context for everything. This was a
:24:27. > :24:32.physical lean neutral and careful budget because we are going through
:24:33. > :24:37.the Brexit process. We talk about Brexit all the time in Westminster.
:24:38. > :24:41.We will be having ping-pong as a result of decisions taken in the
:24:42. > :24:44.House of Lords. It's a budget put together in a careful manner because
:24:45. > :24:49.of Brexit but I find the idea that a country which is running a deficit,
:24:50. > :24:54.as we still are, despite the fact we talk about austerity, we still had a
:24:55. > :24:58.deficit, putting money aside is not realistic. We are in a position
:24:59. > :25:02.slowly better than anticipated and better than we anticipated on the
:25:03. > :25:09.day after Brexit. This is the context where we are working but the
:25:10. > :25:11.fact the Chancellor did not use that magic word does not mean that the
:25:12. > :25:14.budget today does not reflect the fact we need to be careful with
:25:15. > :25:19.public finances. When will we get the good weather so that we can fix
:25:20. > :25:22.the roof? I don't understand the question, the situation is the
:25:23. > :25:27.Brexit White Paper prepared by the Labour government with the Liberal
:25:28. > :25:31.Democrats and signed up to buy Plaid Cymru, a lot of the issues there
:25:32. > :25:36.similar to what the government wants to achieve in Westminster as well.
:25:37. > :25:43.We want as little friction access to the single market, and a good level
:25:44. > :25:47.of access to the single market. We have these discussions in a Welsh
:25:48. > :25:51.context and ultimately there was a decision made by the Welsh people.
:25:52. > :25:55.Not a decision I subscribe to, I campaigned on the other side of the
:25:56. > :25:59.debate but concerns have been expressed by the Welsh people and we
:26:00. > :26:03.have responsibility to deliver Brexit in as painless a fashion as
:26:04. > :26:07.possible and to see we can build on the opportunities that will come our
:26:08. > :26:12.way. One of the concerns, if not the main one, was the level of
:26:13. > :26:17.immigration. It leaves Labour where now, today? In terms of your input
:26:18. > :26:22.into the debate has it develops? Questions around the freedom of
:26:23. > :26:28.movement. Carwyn Jones has said that needs to be addressed. What does
:26:29. > :26:32.that mean in terms of how you view the government's handling of the
:26:33. > :26:36.debate. It's interesting, in the package we saw the possibility that
:26:37. > :26:43.immigration levels might rise, and my constituency is a city centre,
:26:44. > :26:46.Cardiff, they voted to remain. Concerns about immigration which
:26:47. > :26:50.have been planted on to the discussion about the vote when the
:26:51. > :26:53.views I heard in Cardiff. Looking at areas of Wales where there were
:26:54. > :26:58.higher levels of immigration, there was not the concern, looking at
:26:59. > :27:02.areas of Wales where there are very low levels, there's a perception it
:27:03. > :27:07.is a problem. It's more complex than that if I may say so, my
:27:08. > :27:12.constituency and the next along voted to remain. People could see
:27:13. > :27:17.the point of it. We will have problems with our university, with
:27:18. > :27:25.huge numbers of people and staff in Wales. They don't know where they
:27:26. > :27:28.stand. So, there are huge problems. Because one of the sensitivities,
:27:29. > :27:33.Jenny I will come to you in a second, let me pick up Guto on that
:27:34. > :27:39.point. The status of EU nationals, there is such a big debate. I read
:27:40. > :27:43.about a French teacher who had been living here since 1974, now facing a
:27:44. > :27:48.very difficult situation. Is that where you thought you would be at
:27:49. > :27:51.this point? Well, no. You have to be aware that on three separate
:27:52. > :27:56.occasions the government offered to deal with this issue separate to the
:27:57. > :27:59.other negotiations. People who said no European partners, which is
:28:00. > :28:04.clear. We always get the blame from other parties, the government. But
:28:05. > :28:07.on three separate occasions the Prime Minister made it clear she
:28:08. > :28:10.would like to deal with the issue of EU nationals in the UK and the EU
:28:11. > :28:16.separately from main negotiations which has been the rejected. We have
:28:17. > :28:20.an obligation to the 3 million EU nationals in the UK, I 100% agree,
:28:21. > :28:25.but also the nationals in the European Union. We need an
:28:26. > :28:30.agreement. The 27 countries in the EU need to talk to the government on
:28:31. > :28:34.this issue. It is symptomatic of the problem. We have a specific issue
:28:35. > :28:39.where on both sides of the argument, we agree that the status of these
:28:40. > :28:45.people must be settled. But, even on this particular one, we cannot get
:28:46. > :28:50.agreement. This is going to show how complex the whole thing is going to
:28:51. > :28:56.be, over the next few years. Because, absolutely every aspect of
:28:57. > :29:00.leaving the year, that you touch, it becomes a hugely complex issue. And
:29:01. > :29:07.I think that what people in general, and certainly I did not appreciate,
:29:08. > :29:11.I campaigned strongly to remain. But, I don't think I realised half
:29:12. > :29:20.of the complexity of what is faced now. And, in the immigration issue
:29:21. > :29:25.is only one tiny aspect. Jo, what were you going to say? I was going
:29:26. > :29:28.to say to Guto, I would want to start negotiations on a positive
:29:29. > :29:38.footing. Make a gesture, she could do it now. It is easy to make a
:29:39. > :29:41.gesture... But you do have a responsibility to UK nationals in
:29:42. > :29:46.the European Union as well. And you need to be honest. The Spanish
:29:47. > :29:50.government seriously do not want to have 800,000 pensioners from the UK
:29:51. > :29:55.in Spain. There would be an issue in, do we pick up the medical bills,
:29:56. > :29:59.for example? We cannot say, well, everybody can stay in the UK, until
:30:00. > :30:05.we know what will happen to relatives of people in my
:30:06. > :30:10.constituency. Tell that to the academic staff at Cardiff University
:30:11. > :30:14.from the EU... But why is this government wrong? Why aren't you
:30:15. > :30:20.complaining about the EU not making a gesture? It is a moral issue...
:30:21. > :30:25.For the EU in exactly the same way as the UK Government. You cannot say
:30:26. > :30:28.it is a moral failure on the heart of this government... But we are the
:30:29. > :30:35.country that wants to leave. And therefore, we need to leave by --
:30:36. > :30:39.lead by example. And we said firmly, can we have it separate from Brexit
:30:40. > :30:43.negotiations quit at the offer was rejected. I take your point, Guto,
:30:44. > :30:50.but it does not solve the problem for the people in Swansea, Newport,
:30:51. > :30:53.everywhere else. It will solve the problems for some people but not
:30:54. > :30:59.others. We want to solve the problem for everybody. 3 million in the UK
:31:00. > :31:04.and 1.3 million in Europe. It would be morally wrong if we abandoned the
:31:05. > :31:08.1.3 million citizens in Europe. You are showing by example and putting
:31:09. > :31:13.the EU in a position where they cannot possibly treat them less than
:31:14. > :31:19.well. You are ignoring the reality of where UK citizens are in the EU.
:31:20. > :31:29.You need a position where the whole of the EU deal as one. There are
:31:30. > :31:34.very few Spanish nationals in the UK. Europe has to deal with it
:31:35. > :31:41.together and do it now. They cannot do it without... Where does it leave
:31:42. > :31:45.the quick and easy Brexit? UK nationals living abroad in Europe,
:31:46. > :31:49.to vote in the referendum committee would not let European nationals
:31:50. > :31:53.living in the UK vote on the referendum but if they had been able
:31:54. > :31:59.to, that would have had a different result. That takes us in a very
:32:00. > :32:02.different direction. Thank you for joining us today. On budget day.
:32:03. > :32:05.My thanks to Guto Bebb, Jo Stevens, Hywel Williams and Baroness Jenny
:32:06. > :32:09.We'll be back next week, but in the meantime, you can get
:32:10. > :32:11.in touch with us by email: thewalesreport@bbc.co.uk
:32:12. > :32:13.From Westminster, thanks for watching.
:32:14. > :32:46.Award-winning comedian Rhod Gilbert is back for a new series.
:32:47. > :32:48.Please tell me you've got something else I can wear.