:00:17. > :00:21.Tonight as winter arrives, This Week takes to the political slopes.
:00:21. > :00:26.Chancellor George Osborne navigates a treacherous economic black run
:00:26. > :00:31.and spls out just how bad things are looking. It is a hard road, but
:00:31. > :00:38.we are getting there, and Britain is on the right track. The BBC's
:00:38. > :00:43.Robert Peston steps out of the cold to enjoy a bit of apres ski.
:00:43. > :00:46.There's a chill wind blowing through the economy and the
:00:46. > :00:51.Chancellor didn't exactly open his wallet and buy us all a drink,
:00:51. > :00:56.which is why the bill for this one Andrew is being passed back to you.
:00:56. > :01:01.Cheers! As the snowy conditions reached the UK, is austerity
:01:01. > :01:07.leading to a freeze in social mobility? Author Tony Parsons feels
:01:07. > :01:11.chill. My cockles were warmed by the news that Kate and William's
:01:11. > :01:19.baby will be the first British monarch with working class blood.
:01:19. > :01:25.But are the Middleton as one-off? And with hoax callers using their
:01:25. > :01:29.slalom skills to fool Kate's nurses, how easy is it to make it and fake
:01:29. > :01:37.it? Cool comedy customer Miles Jupp slides into our studio. I've
:01:37. > :01:41.blagged my way on to various things, including as part of the press Corp
:01:41. > :01:48.on the England tour of India. But the most impressive thing I've
:01:48. > :01:58.blagged my way on to is the This Week sofa. Wrap up warm, it's all
:01:58. > :02:02.
:02:02. > :02:04.Evenin' all. Welcome to This Week, the show that promises so much and
:02:04. > :02:11.delivers so little, leaving gullible viewers feeling conned and
:02:11. > :02:15.out of pocket. Think of us as the Nigerian email scam of BBC current
:02:15. > :02:20.affairs, or the Autumn Statement. Of course, we're not alone in our
:02:20. > :02:23.tendency to commit fraud. In fact, it's been a week of prank calls and
:02:23. > :02:25.cruel hoaxes. Yet something's clearly wrong when an Australian DJ
:02:25. > :02:31.can impersonate the Queen and sound more believable than a forecast
:02:31. > :02:33.from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Although the OBR
:02:33. > :02:35.has form when it comes to misleading impressions, dodgy
:02:35. > :02:44.predictions and dubious soothsaying, as if the nation's economic
:02:44. > :02:51.forecasts have been out-sourced to Doris Stokes. Oooohhhh, the voices
:02:51. > :02:55.are strong tonight. I'm picking up "expansionary fiscal contraction".
:02:55. > :02:59.No, no, that's fading. I'm now hearing "no growth"... "bigger
:02:59. > :03:07.borrowing"... "missing the debt target"... "bye-bye Triple A". What
:03:07. > :03:10.can it mean? Not that I'm bothered by AAA - I'm in the RAC! Boom-boom.
:03:10. > :03:12.Anyway, with the UK's AAA rating now in doubt and a triple-dip
:03:13. > :03:21.recession now likely, it looks like the era of "triple-down economics"
:03:21. > :03:24.will soon be with us. Did you see what I did there?
:03:24. > :03:27.Speaking of those whose credibility is shot to pieces, I'm joined on
:03:27. > :03:30.the sofa tonight by two Westminster scatter cushions with the stuffing
:03:30. > :03:33.knocked out. The off-trend and off- colour soft furnishings of late
:03:33. > :03:43.night political chat. I speak of course of #jacqu.i.am Jacqui Smith,
:03:43. > :03:46.
:03:46. > :03:49.and #sadmanonatrain Michael "choo- choo" Portillo. Your moment of the
:03:49. > :03:55.week. Hello Andrew. There was a meeting of the parliamentary
:03:55. > :04:04.committee on banking standards and it featured Lord Lawson, Nigel
:04:04. > :04:10.Lawson, Chancellor of the Exchequer in the 1980s, interviewing the
:04:10. > :04:15.chairman of Halifax Bank of Scotland when it went down the due.
:04:15. > :04:22.He had written a few letters say his bank was in brilliant condition.
:04:23. > :04:28.Lord Lawson said if he believed that when he wrote it, he must have
:04:29. > :04:35.been deluded. It reminded me of what a formidable force he is,ant
:04:35. > :04:45.how all of this mess began. It was whole lot of greedy bank traders in
:04:45. > :04:48.banks and managers supposed to have been minding them. Jacqui?
:04:49. > :04:58.Starbucks have woken up and smelled the coffee today. I wonder whether
:04:58. > :05:03.this is people power or whether it's the first manifestation of a
:05:03. > :05:07.big corporate or because they are facing the risk of some sort of
:05:07. > :05:13.demo and difficulty. It's a PR stunt. Well, but it's interesting
:05:13. > :05:19.isn't it that a company like that has been forced into doing this?
:05:19. > :05:25.This is why... I would like to make up a figure and pay my tax that way.
:05:25. > :05:30.It is just a PR stunt to get them through. Will it come out of the PR
:05:30. > :05:34.budget. But they obviously think it is important that they respond.
:05:34. > :05:38.go to Starbucks and I get them to do my tax return.
:05:38. > :05:46.Now, the Blue Nun screw tops have been cracking open up and down the
:05:46. > :05:49.land, as Her Majesty's loyal plebs toast a future royal baby. -- wee
:05:49. > :05:52.bairn. Boy or girl, Kate and Will's offspring will be the future
:05:52. > :05:56.monarch and will undoubtedly lead a gilded life. But what about the
:05:56. > :05:59.babies not born to rule? Can they expect even a fraction of the same
:05:59. > :06:09.life chances? We've asked author and journalist Tony Parsons to give
:06:09. > :06:11.
:06:11. > :06:17.This week most of us rejoiced at the news of the new royal baby. Now,
:06:17. > :06:21.take it from me, the worst thing about having a baby is that you're
:06:21. > :06:27.never truly free again. And the best thing about having a baby is
:06:27. > :06:32.that you never have a better reason to be alive. Shall we get them some
:06:32. > :06:36.flowers? The best thing about a royal baby - they guarantee the
:06:36. > :06:40.survival of the monarchy for another 100 years, ensuring we
:06:41. > :06:50.don't have some greedy, grasping fly-by-night politician Lording it
:06:50. > :06:56.over us as head of state. And the worst thing about a royal baby? You
:06:56. > :07:01.get all these pundits associating significance to the royal might
:07:01. > :07:11.that don't exist. I wonder if there is anything fit for a King or a
:07:11. > :07:14.Queen. We're told that Kate and William's baby will be our first
:07:14. > :07:19.classless sovereign. And nothing could be further from the truth.
:07:19. > :07:24.Yes Kate comes from humble working stock - miners and car penters.
:07:24. > :07:28.Even a generation ago kit's mother was serving tea or coffee as a
:07:28. > :07:38.flight attendant while legions of flunkies were checking the
:07:38. > :07:41.
:07:41. > :07:45.temperature of Prince Charles' soft-boiled eggs.
:07:45. > :07:49.The Middleton family are is gold medal winners of social mobility,
:07:49. > :07:54.and good luck to them, but the Middletons are the exception that
:07:54. > :07:58.proved the rule. Kate and William's baby will be born into a country
:07:59. > :08:08.where it has never been more difficult to get ahead. A land
:08:09. > :08:10.
:08:10. > :08:14.where social mobility is not poorly or dying, but dead. Kate and
:08:14. > :08:19.William's baby will be born into a land that has heavy been more class
:08:20. > :08:27.ridden in my lifetime. A land where the gap between the have not and
:08:27. > :08:33.the have lots is big and getting bigger. Applications for university
:08:33. > :08:37.are down. Soup kitchens are sprouting up everywhere.
:08:37. > :08:42.Homelessness is becoming an epidemic. Even the modest
:08:42. > :08:46.aspirations of the recent past, a higher education for your children,
:08:47. > :08:56.buying your first home, starting a family, are starting to seem like
:08:56. > :09:02.impossible dreams. But this baby will be born into a
:09:02. > :09:08.realm where the people are divided by wealth, by privilege and, above
:09:08. > :09:16.all, by opportunity. Our first classless sovereign? I'll believe
:09:16. > :09:21.that one when Kate and William send their kid to a comprehensive.
:09:21. > :09:25.Red, white and blue always looks good.
:09:25. > :09:30.Tony Parsons from the Flowerstalk in Hampstead to our own little
:09:30. > :09:33.flower shop in Westminster. Tony, welcome. Thank you. You say social
:09:33. > :09:39.mobility isn't dying or feeling rather poorly but you are saying it
:09:39. > :09:44.is dead. A bit of an exaggeration? I don't think so. It is remarkable
:09:44. > :09:48.we've got this baby coming along that has the blood of miners and
:09:48. > :09:55.core penters and flight attendants and does come from workinging class
:09:55. > :09:59.stock. A couple of generations back. But they've completely moved from
:09:59. > :10:06.digging coal in Cumbria to the Crown in a few generations, with
:10:06. > :10:12.the things that always are the engine of social moct - hard work,
:10:12. > :10:16.education, working class decency and charm, niceness, beauty, love.
:10:16. > :10:20.But I think that that baby is the exception rather than the rule. I
:10:20. > :10:24.don't think lit ever happen again. When I was growing up there were
:10:24. > :10:33.five British Prime Ministers in a row that were educated by the state.
:10:33. > :10:37.I don't think that, from 1946 to 1997. I don't think that can happen
:10:37. > :10:42.again. If it is broken down, if it is as bad as you say, what or who
:10:42. > :10:46.is to blame? I think the politicians that kicked away
:10:46. > :10:52.ladders for bright working class kids should take a lot of the blame.
:10:52. > :10:57.The ones that did it in the 1960s and the ones that continue to do it
:10:57. > :11:04.today. Grammar schools are despised from David Cameron to Ed Miliband.
:11:04. > :11:09.They all hate the idea of them. There'll always be people that slip
:11:09. > :11:13.through the net, people that somehow make it, but education is
:11:14. > :11:17.the great driving force of social mobility. It is not just the
:11:18. > :11:24.working class but the middle class too. It is people from ordinary
:11:24. > :11:30.homes. When that's taken away, you will always, we will forever be
:11:30. > :11:35.ruled by unexceptional men who had exceptional educations. Is social
:11:35. > :11:38.mobility in decline? Evidently it is and I entirely agree with Tony's
:11:38. > :11:42.point about education. I think social engineering in education,
:11:42. > :11:46.the destruction of the grammar schools a really important part of
:11:46. > :11:51.this. Another misguided social policy, the expansion of welfare,
:11:52. > :11:54.which has trapped many people into dependency and destroyed what Tony
:11:55. > :12:01.just described as working class decency. Now it is possible for
:12:01. > :12:05.people to get on the welfare early, to live off welfare and to create
:12:05. > :12:10.subsequent generations of people who live on welfare. I don't
:12:10. > :12:13.entirely agree that we are a more class-divided society. There is an
:12:13. > :12:18.extraordinary expansion of the bourgeoisie. If you see the habits
:12:18. > :12:23.that people adopt in the has been that its people aspire to, it is
:12:23. > :12:28.largely now around food and wine bars and the kind of middle class
:12:28. > :12:33.set of values and enjoyment. On the other hand, what used to be working
:12:33. > :12:36.class sports, they've become largely bourgeoisiified. Even rock
:12:36. > :12:41.concerts have become bourgeoisiified. The ticket prices
:12:41. > :12:44.have gone through the roof. I think the middle class is expanding and
:12:44. > :12:50.expanding but I do believe people at the bottom of society, it is
:12:50. > :12:54.nigh on impossible to get to the top. Do you think it is in decline?
:12:54. > :12:57.I think there are serious problems and I think education is the answer,
:12:57. > :13:01.although I disagree with Michael and Tony about grammar schools. I
:13:01. > :13:06.don't think we can afford to have a society nowadays which only lifts
:13:06. > :13:11.up, if it lifts up at all, 20% of people. Everybody through a
:13:11. > :13:17.comprehensive system has to are the opportunity to get on. 20% would be
:13:17. > :13:24.better than 0, which is the public schools. I do note this week a
:13:24. > :13:29.little spat between Andrew Adonis and the new regulator of Fair
:13:29. > :13:33.Access to Universities. It was reported that he said it doesn't
:13:33. > :13:37.matter if kids in comprehensive schools are encouraged to go to
:13:37. > :13:40.Oxford or Cambridge. In my view there is not enough aspiration for
:13:40. > :13:45.enough young people. Having an expectation that large numbers of
:13:45. > :13:49.people will go to the very best universities is at the very least
:13:49. > :13:53.what we need to do in our schools. One of the problems, I think, one
:13:53. > :13:58.of the big political issues at the moment for Labour is not to back
:13:58. > :14:02.off the reforms to education that we started. So not to back off the
:14:02. > :14:05.academies programme, which we put in place. Possibly even to see some
:14:06. > :14:10.of the benefits of free schools, where those exist. And to support
:14:10. > :14:20.those, but not to move away from the idea that education has to be a
:14:20. > :14:21.
:14:21. > :14:25.There is an implication there that because only 20% went to grammar
:14:25. > :14:29.schools, it was better that 0% should get that education. That is
:14:29. > :14:37.exactly where we have ended up. It is about 0% of people who do not go
:14:37. > :14:43.to public school who can make it to the top -- 0%, all people who go to
:14:44. > :14:47.public school. That is just not true. You cannot simply have this
:14:47. > :14:53.very artificial, at age 11, division between those who will be
:14:53. > :15:00.academic and those who will not. understand your argument, and we
:15:00. > :15:03.have the benefit of the policy. It is its bark macro -- it is exactly
:15:03. > :15:10.what Tony was saying. The gap between rich and poor has got wider
:15:10. > :15:13.as well. Cognitive skills, in an information economy become much
:15:13. > :15:18.more important, so the well-paid skilled, blue-collar workers in the
:15:18. > :15:22.past. For there to be social mobility, don't we all need to
:15:22. > :15:29.start at least a little bit closer together than we are at the moment?
:15:29. > :15:34.We do. It is not just about the education of white working-class
:15:35. > :15:38.kids in grammar schools. My mother had six brothers, and most of them
:15:38. > :15:42.worked in the print. They served apprenticeships, which have died
:15:42. > :15:49.out as well as grammar schools. It is giving people a body of skills.
:15:50. > :15:54.I understand what Jackie is saying, that at 11 you're making tough,
:15:54. > :15:58.unfair choices. In some ways, it is unfair. I lost a lot of my friends,
:15:58. > :16:03.my best friend, when I went to a grammar school and they went to a
:16:03. > :16:08.secondary modern. But life is tough and unfair and it makes choices all
:16:08. > :16:12.the time. It would not necessarily have to be 11. You could not call
:16:12. > :16:17.them grammar schools anyway. If they ever came back, we have to
:16:17. > :16:20.call them something else. Part of the problem with social mobility is
:16:20. > :16:23.that the tough choices are made before you get to 11, before you
:16:23. > :16:27.get to school, in terms of whether people come from families where
:16:27. > :16:33.they have been supported to be able to read and be ready to go to
:16:33. > :16:36.school. That is why I think this Government is right to be expanding
:16:36. > :16:40.education for two year-olds, but I think they are wrong to limit the
:16:40. > :16:45.availability of Sure Start centres to people, because that makes the
:16:45. > :16:49.difference at the earliest stage. The Miliband brothers went to a
:16:49. > :16:52.comprehensive. I have been to that school and a surprise that Ed
:16:52. > :16:56.Miliband made it through his first play time because it is quite a
:16:57. > :17:00.tough school. And a very mixed school. But they come from a home
:17:00. > :17:07.it was full of books, and a home where ideas were discussed at the
:17:07. > :17:10.dinner table. So they had a rich cultural life. There is no denying
:17:10. > :17:14.that they are comprehensive Boys, but they came from an exceptional
:17:14. > :17:21.home, with an exceptional father, where there was a level of debate
:17:21. > :17:23.which you would not get in many homes. You know the middle classes
:17:23. > :17:28.invented some grammar schools by making little properties it owns,
:17:28. > :17:31.where property prices are very high, so their comprehensive is
:17:31. > :17:38.outstanding. I would not be too surprised if this royal baby goes
:17:38. > :17:43.to a comprehensive like that. have to say, I think public schools
:17:43. > :17:48.are fantastic schools. But what is interesting about that golden
:17:48. > :17:53.period of meritocracy, five Prime Ministers in a row from Wilson to
:17:53. > :17:56.to John Major, is that they were competing, when Eton and
:17:56. > :18:01.Westminster and St Paul's were still great schools. They were
:18:01. > :18:05.fantastic schools them, but these quirky, strange characters, John
:18:05. > :18:10.Major, Jim Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher and Harold Wilson coming
:18:10. > :18:16.from the back of beyond, were competing with them. So if
:18:16. > :18:20.politicians broke it, can they put it together again? Yes, they can.
:18:21. > :18:26.But it is not going to happen. It is just one of those things. They
:18:26. > :18:30.are all against it. Major parties, for some reason. I think you are
:18:30. > :18:34.wrong about that. Out of the free schools, we are going to find such
:18:34. > :18:39.diversity of schooling emerging that we will find something like
:18:39. > :18:43.the old grammar schools coming through. If the crackdown on
:18:43. > :18:48.welfare continues in the direction it is continuing, you are going to
:18:48. > :18:53.put the family back at the centre of society, rather than having the
:18:53. > :18:58.state as the father of so many children. An optimistic note. Let's
:18:58. > :19:00.leave it there. Thank you very much. Now, it's late, and our viewing
:19:01. > :19:04.figures are lower than a Frenchman's sperm count. Down a
:19:04. > :19:09.third in recent years, apparently. The sperm count, not the viewing
:19:09. > :19:11.figures. But for those of you still up, you're in luck. Because waiting
:19:12. > :19:19.in the, wings fresh from the National Theatre tonight, actor,
:19:19. > :19:23.comedian, writer, Miles Jupp, here to talk about the art of faking it.
:19:23. > :19:29.And you too can pretend to be somebody you're not, as you do most
:19:29. > :19:31.weeks, on the Twitter, the Fleecebook, and the interweb.
:19:32. > :19:37.Now, we love big days, when everyone's focused on exciting
:19:37. > :19:40.Westminster occasions. No, not the visit to Downing Street of gangsta
:19:40. > :19:44.rapper Dr Dre, I kid ye not, but the Autumn Statement by financial
:19:44. > :19:47.rapper Boy George. Yesterday, he stood at the despatch box and
:19:47. > :19:54.claimed he was on course, despite being, well, totally off course,
:19:55. > :19:58.not to say lost in a sea of red ink. Since then, there's been a lot of
:19:58. > :20:01.wondering about what it all means. So we turned to the best in the
:20:02. > :20:11.business, the BBC's business editor, Robert Peston. He's been taking a
:20:12. > :20:28.
:20:28. > :20:32.well-deserved breather with his Another huge week for this
:20:32. > :20:36.Government. George Osborne had to admit he is going to miss one of
:20:36. > :20:39.his important debt targets, and tried to convince us in his Autumn
:20:39. > :20:44.Statement that he has a plan to get some momentum behind the economy.
:20:44. > :20:48.It has been a pretty gruelling week for me because I have to try and
:20:48. > :20:56.make sense of it all. Thank goodness, after these exhausting
:20:56. > :20:59.days, I can come to my club. Only the best are Loudon. But there is
:20:59. > :21:03.obviously nothing AAA about this place, because if there was, they
:21:03. > :21:09.would not let you in. When the Chancellor goes on and on about AAA
:21:09. > :21:13.in relation to debt, what does he mean? Well, it means investors have
:21:13. > :21:16.confidence, confidence that the Government can repay its debts.
:21:16. > :21:22.That allows the Government to borrow very cheaply, so maintaining
:21:22. > :21:28.that AAA badge has been desperately important to George Osborne. In
:21:28. > :21:32.fact, trying to retain that triple- A rating underpinned pretty much
:21:32. > :21:37.everything he said in the House of Commons. The tougher economic
:21:37. > :21:45.conditions mean that while our deficit is forced -- forecast to go
:21:45. > :21:49.on falling, instead of taking three years, it is going to take four.
:21:49. > :21:53.Confronted with this news, some say we should abandon our deficit plan
:21:53. > :21:57.and try to borrow more. We are not taking that road to ruin. It may
:21:57. > :22:00.not be the road to ruin but it certainly looks like a pretty hard
:22:00. > :22:10.road. The Chancellor says that austerity, tax increases and
:22:10. > :22:13.spending cuts, now has to go on all the way to 2018. So I am always
:22:13. > :22:17.hearing the Chancellor going on about how we are all in it together.
:22:17. > :22:22.Is there anything to that? Well, the pain is not being imposed on
:22:22. > :22:26.everybody equally by the Chancellor. Actually, the super rich are pretty
:22:26. > :22:30.much left off. But if you are a doctor or a civil servant, saving
:22:30. > :22:34.for a pension, you are going to be worse off. And if you are
:22:34. > :22:38.unemployed or on very low earnings, you will be worse off. What is
:22:38. > :22:42.interesting to me is that the people who have probably done all
:22:42. > :22:47.right are those right in the middle, people who you might see as swing
:22:47. > :22:52.voters, desperately important for the next election. There are no
:22:52. > :22:56.quick fixes to these problems. But they want to know that we are
:22:56. > :23:01.making progress. And the message from today's Autumn Statement is
:23:01. > :23:09.that we are making progress. It is a hard road, but we're getting
:23:09. > :23:13.there. With the Government missing its numbers, it looked like an open
:23:13. > :23:17.goal for Labour, but they do not have -- they do not seem to have
:23:17. > :23:22.scored. What went wrong? There was some fancy footwork from the
:23:22. > :23:27.Chancellor which caught the shadow jobs were, Ed Balls, off guard. He
:23:27. > :23:31.suffers from a stutter and what came out was not what he wanted.
:23:31. > :23:41.The House of Commons showed no sympathy. The national deficit is
:23:41. > :23:42.
:23:43. > :23:47.not rising. It is rising, not falling. I will say it again. Our
:23:47. > :23:51.economy is contracting this year. Government borrowing and the
:23:51. > :23:56.deficit is revised up this year, next year and every year, and the
:23:56. > :24:01.national debt is rising. It is not falling. This is obviously going to
:24:01. > :24:05.be a long game. How will Labour try to fight back? Ed Balls will
:24:05. > :24:08.continue to point out that George Osborne is failing his own test of
:24:08. > :24:12.credibility, in that the national debt is going up and up as far as
:24:12. > :24:18.the eye can see. He will say it is unfair that so much of the squeeze
:24:18. > :24:21.is falling on the working poor. But the Chancellor has set a trap for
:24:21. > :24:27.Labour. Cuts in unemployment benefits are popular with many
:24:27. > :24:32.voters. How will Labour vote on that? Cutting taxes for the rich,
:24:32. > :24:41.while struggling families and pensioners pay the price, unfair,
:24:41. > :24:45.incompetent and completely out of touch. Many would say Labour has
:24:45. > :24:48.not launched a significant economic policy for some time. Its strategy
:24:48. > :24:52.appears to be to sit back on the assumption that it will fall apart
:24:52. > :24:57.and there are certainly plenty of economists who fear that the UK may
:24:57. > :25:01.lurch back into recession. If that were to happen, there would
:25:01. > :25:05.certainly be tensions, new tensions in the coalition. A senior Lib Dem
:25:05. > :25:09.minister recently said to me that if there were a so-called triple
:25:09. > :25:12.dip, he would start to put pressure on George Osborne for a change of
:25:12. > :25:20.strategy, which is why the Chancellor may have taken something
:25:20. > :25:26.of a risk in so publicly pooh- poohing the Lib Dems cherished
:25:26. > :25:29.mansion tax. In my view, it would be intrusive, expensive to levy,
:25:29. > :25:33.would raise little and be a temptation for future Chancellors
:25:33. > :25:43.to bring ever more homes into its net. So we are not having a new
:25:43. > :25:43.
:25:43. > :25:48.homes tax. There are huge pressures of -- on the British economy. If
:25:48. > :25:55.the recovery fails to materialise in the way George Osborne hopes and
:25:55. > :25:58.expects, the UK would then lose that glistening AAA credit rating,
:25:58. > :26:05.which would be a huge political embarrassment for the Chancellor
:26:05. > :26:14.and also for the Prime Minister. I say, old chap, I think it is time
:26:14. > :26:18.you left. My goodness, they let anybody in these days.
:26:18. > :26:21.That was Robert Peston, taking five at the Sir Richard Steele Pub in
:26:21. > :26:31.Belsize Park. And the music, of course, our little homage to the
:26:31. > :26:37.
:26:37. > :26:45.wonderful jazz pianist and composer Dave Brubeck, who died this week.
:26:45. > :26:50.Yes, I was a fan of Dave Brubeck. None of that was on the autocue.
:26:50. > :26:54.Are we going to lose the triple-A rating? It is possible. It is more
:26:54. > :27:00.or less what the whole government strategy has been about. It is more
:27:00. > :27:03.or less why the coalition came into being in the first place. But not
:27:03. > :27:06.exactly the triple-A rating. Precisely, it is to keep the
:27:06. > :27:11.interest on what the Government has to pay on its borrowing as low as
:27:12. > :27:15.possible, that is to say at about 2%. It is possible that even if we
:27:15. > :27:18.lost the triple-A rating we would still be paying interest at 2%, in
:27:18. > :27:22.which case none of us would notice any difference and I don't think
:27:22. > :27:25.the Americans would. Although there were warnings that we might lose
:27:25. > :27:29.the triple-A rating, the markets this morning were pretty positive
:27:29. > :27:32.for the Government. The triple-A rating is a kind of proxy, but what
:27:32. > :27:38.really matters is the rate of interest that we pay. If the rate
:27:38. > :27:44.of interest remains at 2%, we are fine, in a sustainable position. If
:27:44. > :27:48.it goes up to where Spain and Italy are, 5%, that is catastrophic. The
:27:48. > :27:50.coalition would say this is an argument in its favour. It is
:27:50. > :27:53.precisely because we are on this hair-trigger, that interest rates
:27:53. > :27:57.could go zooming up, that if we were to do what Ed Balls says,
:27:57. > :28:02.borrow more now, we would simply lurch into that position of having
:28:02. > :28:05.these much higher interest rates, and that would be catastrophic. So
:28:05. > :28:09.any little stimulus that you might provide to the economy by borrowing
:28:09. > :28:12.more and spending more would be absolutely washed away with
:28:12. > :28:16.interest rates went up in that way. The comparison that you have to
:28:16. > :28:20.make is not the economy we have compared with what we would like,
:28:20. > :28:26.or compared with what it was, but the economy we have compared with
:28:26. > :28:31.the economy that the Spanish and Italians and Greeks have. If we
:28:31. > :28:36.were to lose the triple-A rating, it would be an open goal for Labour.
:28:36. > :28:43.Put aside the economics. The politics of it are huge. But there
:28:43. > :28:45.may be a trap for Labour, too. If we lose the triple-A rating, it is
:28:45. > :28:49.probably because the Chancellor is failing to meet his borrowing
:28:49. > :28:59.targets and failing to meet his debt targets, so for Labour to
:28:59. > :29:01.argue that borrowing should be even On the AAA rating, I agree. It is
:29:01. > :29:07.more significant for the Chancellor's reputation than it is
:29:07. > :29:12.for the real economy in the UK, not least because comparatively there
:29:12. > :29:17.are now in terms of of where investment will go less options as
:29:17. > :29:21.attractive for the UK, even if we were to lose our AAA rating. I
:29:21. > :29:25.agree with you that there is an issue for Labour in the way in
:29:25. > :29:31.which they respond to the Autumn Statement, another Michael, of
:29:31. > :29:35.course, as Ed Balls rightly pointed out, as the OBR demonstrated, a
:29:35. > :29:41.failure to bring growth into the economy through the austerity
:29:41. > :29:45.programme is the reason why, if we take out the receipts from the 4G
:29:45. > :29:50.sale, why we will nevertheless be borrowing more this year than we
:29:50. > :29:58.would have borrowed last year. is true, if you take the 4G seams
:29:58. > :30:02.out and strip away all the one-off items he rather complicatedly put
:30:02. > :30:06.out yesterday, we borrow more this year than last year. The problem is
:30:06. > :30:09.that austerity isn't working and nor are we all in this together.
:30:09. > :30:16.Because the Chancellor performed rather well yesterday, he had a
:30:16. > :30:21.weak hand and he played it well, and we'll come on in a minute to Ed
:30:21. > :30:27.Balls, who stumbled a bit in the beginning and found it hard to
:30:27. > :30:34.recover. The Chancellor got not a bad press today. When you peal
:30:34. > :30:42.about the figures, he told us he is going to borrow over �250 billion
:30:42. > :30:48.over five years but now it is over �500. -- over �5 00 billion. Growth
:30:48. > :30:51.is now going to be negative this year, barely 1% next year.
:30:51. > :30:56.coalition made a miscalculation. They thought that by announcing
:30:56. > :31:01.there was going to be a Government for five years and announcing there
:31:01. > :31:06.was going to to be an austerity programme there would be such a
:31:06. > :31:10.boost to confidence that growth would return to the economy, and
:31:10. > :31:13.tax revenues would come in and everything would be put right. That
:31:13. > :31:19.was a miscalculation. When Jacqui and others say the policy is not
:31:19. > :31:23.working, it is true that the policy is not creating growth, but Britain
:31:23. > :31:27.has been able to go on borrowing money at 2%, a privilege not
:31:27. > :31:31.available to other countries to Europe. But had there been growth
:31:31. > :31:35.there wouldn't be such a requirement to borrow. Of course,
:31:35. > :31:39.but your little stimulus, your borrowing more, would have hurried
:31:39. > :31:44.on the day at which we would have to pay more interest on the money
:31:44. > :31:51.we borrowed. So the success of the policy has been that we were not
:31:51. > :31:56.Spain or Italy. Before I come on to that... Nor are we Germany or the
:31:56. > :32:00.US on political growth. It is sif to say it is not very good but it
:32:00. > :32:05.could be much worse. That's what the Government is reduced to isn't
:32:05. > :32:09.it? Absolutely, but there will be an option at the next election and
:32:09. > :32:12.that option will be you do wants it very bad or very much worse? That
:32:12. > :32:18.will be the choice that will be put to the British people. The eurozone
:32:18. > :32:21.as a whole is now in recession. The Greek and Spanish economies are in
:32:21. > :32:26.deep decline. The French economy's in recession, the Italian economy
:32:26. > :32:31.is in recession. When you look at the growth figures, which may even
:32:31. > :32:35.be too optimistic for Britain of 1% next year, barely 2% the year after
:32:35. > :32:40.that. I'm beginning to wonder whether you are on the left or the
:32:40. > :32:44.right, the new normal we face is stagnation for the foreseeable
:32:44. > :32:50.future. There is a totally difficulty economic context, I
:32:50. > :32:54.think that's true. From what we grew up with. For the whole of the
:32:54. > :32:58.time that I was in Government, the issues were about how you spent the
:32:59. > :33:01.money with ana was there to be spent. This is a totally different
:33:01. > :33:05.political and economic fiscal environment in which to operate.
:33:05. > :33:09.And to be honest, people are struggling I think in both the
:33:09. > :33:12.major parties with what's the approach to that? The Tory approach
:33:12. > :33:16.was to say we've inherited a mess, we believe austerity is the answer
:33:16. > :33:20.and we are all going be in it together, in taking this tough
:33:20. > :33:24.austerity medicine that. Hasn't worked. The Labour approach to a
:33:24. > :33:28.certain extent Michael is right has been to say that we wouldn't have
:33:28. > :33:33.got into this mess in the first place, as we wouldn't have cut so
:33:33. > :33:37.far and so fast. But the problem is we are now in this situation and
:33:37. > :33:40.for Labour win the next election they have to have a credible story
:33:40. > :33:45.about how the deaf sift will be reduced. How we will manage, the
:33:45. > :33:49.Government, at a time when spending more isn't going to be the answer.
:33:49. > :33:55.I'm sorry to keep going on about European comparisons but people in
:33:55. > :33:59.this country, unless they travel abroad or study abroad don't get
:33:59. > :34:04.the full measure of how desperate the situation is elsewhere and how
:34:04. > :34:09.desperate it could be here. I'm not guaranteeing you with these
:34:10. > :34:16.policies we won't end up in the same place. No. And he isn't. Where
:34:16. > :34:21.we are seeing employment of 8%, other countries are seeing 25%.
:34:21. > :34:26.Tory Party broadcast will be full of rights and demonstration rights
:34:26. > :34:32.footage of Spain and Greece and maybe Italy. To give credit to the
:34:32. > :34:42.last Government, where we in the euro we wouldn't be able to devalue
:34:42. > :34:42.
:34:42. > :34:46.our currency or print money. bank that can print money like
:34:46. > :34:50.America, like here, have lo interest rates.
:34:50. > :34:55.Ed Balls was slightly thrown I think was we all thought the
:34:55. > :35:01.deficit would be rising this week. But a bit of jiggery-pokery threw
:35:01. > :35:05.him. Do you feel sorry for him? feel sorry for him. He a good line
:35:05. > :35:11.about a response to the Autumn Statement is like making a wedding
:35:11. > :35:16.speech when you don't talk about the -- when you don't know the
:35:16. > :35:22.broid or the groom. It is not as if people will say the trouble with Ed
:35:22. > :35:27.is he can't perform at the dispatch box. He is a robust performer and
:35:27. > :35:34.if this is lightly less than his usual performance, well... But he's
:35:34. > :35:38.so rude to everybody in the House. The House of Commons is like these
:35:38. > :35:42.Medieval ordeals where they used to dip witches in water and see if
:35:42. > :35:46.they drowned or not. You are thrown into this place and you are you
:35:47. > :35:50.either sink or swim. Your survival depends on all sorts of things.
:35:50. > :35:55.Whether you have a sore throat that day, whether you've got a cold,
:35:55. > :36:00.whether you've got out of the right side of bed. Osborne is like Gordon
:36:00. > :36:04.Brown, he is very political in that he's thrown to Labour this 1% rise
:36:04. > :36:09.in benefits. I couldn't get any Labour politician in the shadow
:36:09. > :36:12.Government to tell me how they are going to vote for it. We'll keep an
:36:12. > :36:15.eye on it. Now, you've probably not twigged,
:36:16. > :36:18.but we're all a bunch of frauds on this sofa, playing at making a TV
:36:18. > :36:21.show. We hide it well don't we? Michael's accidentally stumbled
:36:22. > :36:25.onto the set on his way home from a guest appearance on Gok Wan's
:36:25. > :36:28.Fashion Fix. Jacqui's trying her best as the great pretender to the
:36:28. > :36:33.Abbott throne, though we'll never forget you Diane, or your Annabel's
:36:33. > :36:40.bar bill. And I'm doing my most convincing impression of a man who
:36:40. > :36:43.knows how to read an autocue, read an autocue, read an autocue. So
:36:43. > :36:53.this week we're putting our best feet forward and putting "faking
:36:53. > :36:59.
:36:59. > :37:05.Hospital staff looking after Kate were left red faced after two
:37:05. > :37:10.Aussie radio DJs pretended to be the Queen and Prince Charles. The
:37:10. > :37:16.likeness was uncanny. Hello, there can I please speak to
:37:16. > :37:23.Kate please, my granddaughter. hold on ma'am. Thank you.
:37:23. > :37:27.Are they putting us through? Yes! Starbucks' impression of a hippy
:37:27. > :37:31.dipy coffee chain doesn't look so believable, now the mask has
:37:31. > :37:37.slipped and its creative approach to tax revealed a more corporate
:37:38. > :37:45.face. While rumours that Voeck editor Anna Wintour might be the
:37:45. > :37:50.next American ambassador to the UK proves that even if you lack skills,
:37:50. > :37:56.self-confidence can open doors. And at least "Freddie" Flintoff didn't
:37:56. > :38:01.fall flat on his face after leaving cricket and becoming a heavyweight
:38:01. > :38:06.contender, slengs his crit nicks the process.
:38:06. > :38:14.-- silencing his critics in the process. Good to see you. Is it
:38:14. > :38:22.true you blagged your way on to a cricket tour of India? It was six
:38:22. > :38:26.years ago. I couldn't blag my way into the team, obviously, in those
:38:26. > :38:31.days it had selection policy, but the nearest best thing would be to
:38:31. > :38:35.be a journalist. I rang the right people and said I'm the BBC
:38:35. > :38:40.Scotland crickets correspondent, can you sort out my travel and
:38:40. > :38:44.accommodation and stuff. People said yes, so I went out there with
:38:44. > :38:48.the press Corp and tried to be like them. Were you nervous? I was. I
:38:48. > :38:54.imagined the hard thing would be convincing people, would be getting
:38:54. > :39:00.in there. To me the grey area was getting into the press box and voog
:39:00. > :39:05.it as a fortress, but that Paz -- viewing it as a fortress, but that
:39:05. > :39:10.was ludicrously easy. Do you know anything about cricket? I know a
:39:10. > :39:15.lot about cricket. There is a difference between being a fan and
:39:15. > :39:22.people who absorb it all day. Lots of arm chair political experts,
:39:22. > :39:28.they are thrown, you would feel brutally out of your death. It is
:39:28. > :39:31.remarkably how easily the hospital allowed that call to go through. It
:39:31. > :39:35.suggests that people want to believe, they are in a kind of
:39:35. > :39:39.accepting, believing mood. suppose if you answered the phone
:39:40. > :39:43.and someone said it's the Queen here, would hope it was the Queen
:39:43. > :39:47.wouldn't you? You would think, I hope this is the Queen ringing me
:39:47. > :39:51.and not someone pretending the Queen. You are transferring your
:39:51. > :39:55.hopes on to it in a way. The Australians are fascinated by our
:39:55. > :40:03.monarchy, as they are so proud to be subjects of her Marge city.
:40:03. > :40:09.are an actor, a stand-up comedian, a writer. You do ever feel an
:40:09. > :40:14.imposter in these roles? A lot of roles all the time. The different
:40:14. > :40:19.jobs I do, it is one of the great sadnesses of life, you talk to
:40:19. > :40:24.people of any age and they always say you feel you will be found out.
:40:24. > :40:29.There is no such thing as making it. People are amazing in all sorts of
:40:29. > :40:34.field have the most extraordinary doubts sometimes. Michael Portillo,
:40:34. > :40:38.have you ever felt an imposter in any of your jobs? All the time.
:40:38. > :40:44.There was a night when Margaret Thatcher was decide tolling resign
:40:44. > :40:51.and all her cabinet had told her to resign. I was a middle ranking
:40:51. > :40:55.Minister. I got in to see her one to one and urged her not to resign.
:40:55. > :40:58.I thought I am far too junior. Where is the person who is meant to
:40:59. > :41:04.tell the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom not the resign. All
:41:04. > :41:10.the time I was in the Cabinet, I thought I was in a fake Cabinet and
:41:11. > :41:15.behind the curtain there was a real Cabinet. How long did it take for
:41:15. > :41:19.tow feel you belonged in the cabinet? I had been a Minister for
:41:19. > :41:22.seven years. Mike sell modest and not what I always thought Tories
:41:22. > :41:26.were like. When I first got into Government, I remember the first
:41:26. > :41:29.time I went to Downing Street, I thought isn't the thing that Labour
:41:29. > :41:33.politicians do being in Government, whereas those Tories always think
:41:33. > :41:39.they are born for power and they should belong here. I was a grammar
:41:39. > :41:46.school boy you see. But you can, we were talking about class earlier,
:41:46. > :41:51.if you have a public school accent and confidence and dress the right
:41:51. > :41:57.way, you can fool people a lot of the time. You can fool people, I'm
:41:57. > :42:01.meant to be in there. An act like that. Yes. People are on the
:42:01. > :42:09.lookout for that Braying behaviour now a little bit more. Just being
:42:09. > :42:13.posh and shouting doesn't get you. They just tell tow get off your
:42:13. > :42:23.bicycle. "Freddie" Flintoff swapped contribute for heavyweight boxing.
:42:23. > :42:24.
:42:24. > :42:29.You've swapped heavyweight for -- politics for television. It is
:42:29. > :42:39.marvellous. And I'm less stressed as well. Any other jobs you fancy
:42:39. > :42:44.
:42:44. > :42:50.blagging your way into? Well, I'm always keen to work. All sorts
:42:50. > :42:55.really. I do like the idea of travel documentaries. I'm not sure
:42:55. > :43:01.that is something. Don't tell him that. What are you doing at the
:43:01. > :43:06.moment? I'm in Alan Bennett's new play, People. It is considerable
:43:06. > :43:09.and it has upset the National Trust. You must have done something right.
:43:09. > :43:12.We need to go. That's your lot for tonight folks,
:43:12. > :43:18.but not for us, because with Madonna's infamous "conical bra"
:43:18. > :43:28.being sold at auction this week - for over �32,000! The music was
:43:28. > :43:36.
:43:36. > :43:39.Time Out. I wonder who bought Madonna's conical bra. Michael's
:43:39. > :43:42.absolutely determined to get his money's worth at Annabel's tonight.
:43:42. > :43:45.He'll take someone's eye out if he's not careful. But we leave you
:43:45. > :43:48.tonight with a heartfelt plea, after Sally Bercow declared on