:00:06. > :00:08.Tonight on This Week, as temperatures fall below zero and
:00:08. > :00:13.snow spreads across the country, join us for Westminster Winter
:00:13. > :00:21.Watch. The Prime Minister postpones his eagerly-awaited speech on
:00:21. > :00:26.Europe as the scale of the hostage crisis in Algeria unfolds. I think
:00:26. > :00:28.we have to prepare ourselves for the possibility of bad news ahead.
:00:28. > :00:32.The former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, will be
:00:32. > :00:35.joining us live in the studio. Back in the Westminster village,
:00:35. > :00:39.former Prime Minister Gordon Brown came out of hibernation and made a
:00:39. > :00:49.rare appearance. The Economist's Anne McElvoy has been studying the
:00:49. > :00:54.political wildlife. A big beast usually surrounded by the Labour
:00:54. > :00:57.herd was a strange sight speaking alone from the backbenches.
:00:57. > :01:00.And will Oprah Winfrey make Lance Armstrong melt under the TV lights
:01:00. > :01:03.and confess all? Coming in from the cold, and
:01:03. > :01:12.telling all, former model Paula Hamilton, and TV Presenter Richard
:01:12. > :01:17.Madeley. Getting people to come on television and tell the truth, make
:01:17. > :01:25.a confession, is an art in itself. And I'm looking forward to meeting
:01:25. > :01:33.you, Andrew. Wrap up and we'll keep you warm.
:01:33. > :01:36.Evenin' all. Welcome to This Week. On a night when our normally
:01:36. > :01:41.jocular disposition isn't appropriate for grim events. A mix
:01:41. > :01:49.you ture of speculation and grim news is emerging from the hostage
:01:49. > :01:52.crisis in Algeria, centred on a BP compound. Algerian forces launched
:01:52. > :01:56.an attack on the compound. The British Prime Minister and other
:01:56. > :02:00.western leaders were not informed ahead of the operation despite the
:02:00. > :02:04.risk to their nationals. It appears that a number of hostages, perhaps
:02:04. > :02:09.as many as 30 or even more have also their lives during the
:02:09. > :02:13.fighting. As well as a number of Islamist militants and no doubt
:02:13. > :02:20.some Algerian security forces too. This evening David Cameron
:02:21. > :02:26.announced he was postponing his long awaiting speech on Europe, and
:02:26. > :02:32.more warned that bad news on the assault is possible. It is widely
:02:32. > :02:37.thought that this is linked to France's crackdown on the militants
:02:37. > :02:43.in neighbouring Mali. The eyes of the world are now turning to the
:02:43. > :02:48.vast expanses of north Africa. The true extent of Al-Qaeda and
:02:48. > :02:56.jihadist influence control and military capability in the region.
:02:56. > :02:59.Joining they on the sofa is former Prime Minister Tony Blair's
:02:59. > :03:05.Director of Communications Alastair Campbell, and the former Secretary-
:03:05. > :03:15.General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan. Welcome to you all and a
:03:15. > :03:16.
:03:16. > :03:21.special welcome to you Kofi Annan. We face a very bad situation at
:03:21. > :03:26.this BP gas compound in Algeria. A number of British citizens have
:03:26. > :03:31.been taken hostage. Already we know of one who has died. The Algerian
:03:31. > :03:36.armed forces have now attacked this compound. It is a very dangerous
:03:36. > :03:40.and very uncertain, a very fluid situation, and I think we have to
:03:40. > :03:43.prepare ourselves for the possibility of bad news ahead.
:03:43. > :03:49.COBRA officials here are working around the clock to do everything
:03:49. > :03:53.we can to keep in contact with the families, to build the fullest
:03:53. > :03:57.possible picture of the information and the intelligence that we have.
:03:57. > :04:02.I've chaired meetings of COBRA today and I will continue to do so.
:04:02. > :04:06.I will do everything I can to update people on what's a difficult
:04:06. > :04:09.and dangerous and potentially very bad situation. A sombre Prime
:04:09. > :04:16.Minister in Downing Street a few hours ago.
:04:16. > :04:23.Kofi Annan, let me start with Mali. How serious was the Islamist threat
:04:23. > :04:29.developing there and in other parts of the Maghreb? I think that Mali
:04:29. > :04:37.became, if I may put it this way, collateral damage of Libya. Quite a
:04:37. > :04:41.lot of the soldiers, Malian soldiers, working and fighting for
:04:41. > :04:46.Gaddafi went back home where they had the weapons and they are
:04:46. > :04:56.trading. There was already a revolution and rebellion in the
:04:56. > :04:58.
:04:58. > :05:03.north. By the Tuareg group and the Islamist group also joined in. When
:05:03. > :05:08.these people returned with their heavy weapons, some of the Malian
:05:08. > :05:15.troops of the same tribe also teamed up with them. So they left
:05:15. > :05:18.the Government Army and joined the rebels? And it was also at a time
:05:18. > :05:24.when a coup had taken place and there were political tensions in
:05:24. > :05:28.the capital. And, of course, given what was happening in the north and
:05:28. > :05:35.the speed with which the rebellion was moving south, and particularly
:05:35. > :05:39.the last few days, I could understand why France would act.
:05:39. > :05:43.Because the West African forces were supposed to go in but they
:05:43. > :05:47.needed time and indicated it would take a couple of months for them to
:05:47. > :05:51.get ready. So there was a danger that the French saw, and in your
:05:51. > :05:57.view they were right, that Islamist and Al-Qaeda-backed militants in
:05:57. > :06:01.the north were in danger of taking over the whole of Mali? They had
:06:01. > :06:08.already taken the north but they could have moved further south, so
:06:08. > :06:11.they had to be stopped. And in the meantime the West African forces
:06:11. > :06:16.had decided to accelerate their deployment, which I hope would make
:06:16. > :06:21.a difference. I think given the fact that Mali was a collateral
:06:21. > :06:28.damage of an international action in Libya, I hope the international
:06:28. > :06:31.community will stand firmly by Libya and, firmly by Mali and help
:06:31. > :06:36.Mali liberate its territory. Do you think French were right to
:06:36. > :06:40.intervene? I think they were right to intervene and, of course, when
:06:40. > :06:46.you take this sort of action, in that sort of a region, with the
:06:46. > :06:51.parties and the groups we are dealing with, there is always a
:06:51. > :06:56.backlash. There is always a push- back, so we shouldn't be too
:06:56. > :07:00.surprised that it happened. But I think nobody had perhaps expected
:07:00. > :07:04.that it will happen in that particular location. Now, given
:07:04. > :07:08.what had happened in Mali with the French troops there waiting on the
:07:08. > :07:12.West African troops to join them, and then this developing hostage
:07:12. > :07:16.situation in Algeria, in the south- east on the way to Mali in a sense
:07:17. > :07:23.and on the border with Libya too, are you in any doubt that the
:07:23. > :07:27.events in Mali and the hostage situation in wraur are connected?
:07:27. > :07:33.have no doubt - in Algeria are connect? I have no doubt that they
:07:33. > :07:40.are connected. We should always be aware that we had a very volatile
:07:40. > :07:46.situation. They've taken lots of hostages, from Niger to Mali to
:07:46. > :07:50.Mauritania there's been quite a bit of traffic there. We've been
:07:50. > :07:56.worried about developments not only with the question of hostage taking,
:07:56. > :07:59.the question of drug smuggling, where the Latin American drug
:07:59. > :08:05.barons are using West Africa, particularly Guinea-Bissau, to move
:08:05. > :08:10.drugs to Europe. So the drugs are coming through the north African
:08:10. > :08:18.desert? They come by plane and by ship. Any route that will get them
:08:18. > :08:22.to Europe. In fact we are launching a West African Drug Commission
:08:22. > :08:26.looking at itsle pact on degreesy and governance at the end of the
:08:26. > :08:30.month. Given the hostage situation at this BP compound in a pretty
:08:30. > :08:35.remote part of the world, are you surprised that the Algerian
:08:35. > :08:38.Government decided to go it alone, not to involve maybe better-trained
:08:38. > :08:44.special forces from Britain or France or whatever? Is this in
:08:44. > :08:49.keeping with the Algerian way of doing things? I think the Algerians
:08:49. > :08:54.have had a fairly competent Army. They also believe they know the
:08:54. > :08:58.environment. And I suspect they know the groups that operate in
:08:58. > :09:05.that region. And probably felt very confident that they would be able
:09:05. > :09:10.to deal with it, and that speed was of the essence, and decided to move
:09:10. > :09:14.very quickly. Unfortunately things have gone wrong and we should send
:09:14. > :09:18.our sympathies and condolences to the families who've lost loved ones
:09:18. > :09:23.and those who've been wounded. But I think the Algerian action was
:09:23. > :09:29.well intended. They may have been set back and gone wrong but I think
:09:29. > :09:34.it was a sort of action that I would have expected them to take.
:09:34. > :09:38.Michael? Well, first of all, I don't disagree with anything that I
:09:38. > :09:43.have heard at all, but to think about what the situation begins to
:09:43. > :09:47.tell us. Mali is yet another area in which the West has been
:09:47. > :09:53.compelled to intervene. It is not place where you might say we've put
:09:53. > :10:02.our arm in the mangle, a my metaphor meaning that you intend to
:10:02. > :10:10.go in for a limited time but get drawn in more and warm. It
:10:10. > :10:16.exercises our extreme vol toilet the a symmetrical war.
:10:16. > :10:20.-- our extreme volatility. There was talk they were moving the
:10:20. > :10:25.hostages out, that there was talk they were threatening to blow the
:10:25. > :10:29.hostages up. I can see the Algerians might have been impatient.
:10:29. > :10:37.They might recognise that British and French forces might do a better
:10:37. > :10:42.job but it takes a while to reconnoitre. That takes time. And
:10:42. > :10:49.this terrorist group includes some very important militants. You mean
:10:49. > :10:57.enemies? For a long time. In a much broader sprifrbgs it is worth
:10:57. > :11:04.taking a snapshot of -- broader perspective. It is worth taking a
:11:04. > :11:08.snapshot of where we are. We've seen Gaddafi removed from Libya.
:11:08. > :11:13.We've connived at removing Mubarak from Egypt and have little idea
:11:13. > :11:20.about the future of that country. We are conniving with the removal
:11:20. > :11:25.of al-Assad, and we have little idea of the future of Syria. We are
:11:25. > :11:31.withdrawing from Iraq, where the situation is very unstable. Even in
:11:31. > :11:37.Turkey we are losing ground to Islamist forces. And of course Iran,
:11:37. > :11:43.which used to be medal in check by Saddam Hussein in Iraq, is now in a
:11:43. > :11:47.rampant situation and moves towards the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
:11:47. > :11:51.Meanwhile Israel has fallen out of favour with most of its erstwhile
:11:51. > :11:56.allies. Pakistan is extraordinarily unstable and elements in Pakistan
:11:56. > :12:00.are feeding the militancy and instability of other areas. This is
:12:00. > :12:05.a very complicated conflict we are involved in and I have to say right
:12:05. > :12:10.now it is not going well. You sound very gloomy. Given that we have
:12:10. > :12:14.unfinished business in other parts of the world, are we right in
:12:14. > :12:19.seeing what we used to call the Maghreb, the part of North Africa,
:12:19. > :12:27.is this the new front on what people, some people called the war
:12:27. > :12:33.on terror? I'm not sure I would put that way, but I agree with what the
:12:33. > :12:37.Minister said. Particularly his review of the broader Middle East,
:12:37. > :12:41.starting from North Africa, stretching to Afghanistan.
:12:42. > :12:50.you're gloomy too? And even to Pakistan. We've lots of work to do
:12:50. > :12:56.it's a very messy world we are living in. I think when it comes to
:12:56. > :13:03.North Africa, I hope the Egyptians and the Tunisians over time will be
:13:03. > :13:11.able to manage the situation better. But we all have to work together.
:13:11. > :13:17.It is not just an issue for Mali or France or Algeria. We need a much
:13:17. > :13:23.broader international effort. Including the West African forces?
:13:23. > :13:30.Including the West African force which is are going in. If I may add
:13:30. > :13:38.to what Minister from till o said, we tend to -- Minister Portillo
:13:38. > :13:48.said, we tend to ignore failed states. We ignored Afghanistan when
:13:48. > :13:49.
:13:49. > :13:53.the Russians left until they we were hit in... We ignored Mali. And
:13:53. > :13:57.we are seeing another development in the West African region which we
:13:57. > :14:01.need to tackle ruz lootly and firmly before we confront. You are
:14:01. > :14:06.saying this has been firsting for a while, that we should have seen
:14:06. > :14:14.this coming. Alastair? What Michael is doing in a sense is explaining
:14:14. > :14:19.why the Russians and the Chinese tend to try to ride out of these
:14:19. > :14:24.situations. You mentioned Egypt. And Mubarak. People are saying
:14:24. > :14:27.what's going to come, and Libya is partly the same. We tend to judge
:14:27. > :14:31.these countries by our own standards and values. Michael is
:14:31. > :14:35.also right about what the terrorists can do. There is Mali
:14:35. > :14:40.doing. Assuming that Sophie is right and it is linked, they pick a
:14:40. > :14:44.place that's probably not that well protected, that is probably easy to
:14:44. > :14:48.get in and make the initial attack. They probably know that there are
:14:48. > :14:52.people there from some of the major countries of the world. It is not
:14:52. > :14:57.only David Cameron looking sombre on the television tonight. The
:14:57. > :15:02.pressure is then on our leaders to get in and sort it out. Operating
:15:02. > :15:06.probably in pretty much the same information as we have. And Michael
:15:06. > :15:10.is right that you've got to feel for the Algerians if they do think
:15:10. > :15:17.suddenly they've got this crisis on their doorstep, they have got to
:15:17. > :15:22.deal with it, and how long would it take to get enough British, French,
:15:22. > :15:25.Australian Special Forces out there? So I suspect the Algerians
:15:25. > :15:35.are perhaps pressed the panic button and gone in and sorted it
:15:35. > :15:36.
:15:36. > :15:44.out. It appears, we don't know, The interesting thing here is that
:15:44. > :15:51.some of these terrorists also batch - watch the news. I remember once
:15:51. > :15:58.something happened in Congo and immediately after the Black Hawk
:15:58. > :16:03.down in Somalia said why did you do this and they said "We also watch
:16:03. > :16:08.CNN". You said that our friends should not be left alone to do this
:16:08. > :16:11.and that it will be hoping that the west African forces will arrive -
:16:11. > :16:14.they've been a long time coming haven't they? Where are all the
:16:14. > :16:17.Americans in all this, because in news gone by, the Americans would
:16:17. > :16:20.have been taking the lead in something like this? We know that
:16:20. > :16:25.Mr Obama sees himself as the Pacific President, he wants to face
:16:25. > :16:32.that way, rather than our way, but from what you say, at some stage,
:16:32. > :16:37.the Americans will get involved? think they will have a role to play
:16:37. > :16:42.and they have assets that other countries may not have. If this is
:16:42. > :16:47.going to be a real international effort, we are going to try and
:16:47. > :16:53.contain or nip the problem in the bud before we have another Somalia
:16:53. > :16:59.or Afghanistan on our hands, then we have to have all hands on deck.
:16:59. > :17:03.Those with assets will have to participate. I'm sure there are
:17:03. > :17:12.discussions going on in Washington as to what role they can play. They
:17:12. > :17:17.may not want to be upfront leading and pushing, but they can make very
:17:17. > :17:22.useful contributions. You mentioned Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan
:17:22. > :17:27.really just started after 9/11. What should have been done by the
:17:27. > :17:34.big powers and international community before that? What could
:17:34. > :17:41.have happened that could have prevented this? Before the Russians
:17:41. > :17:45.left, it was becoming almost a failed state, an ungovernable
:17:45. > :17:49.situation. What could have been done then? If one tried to help
:17:49. > :17:53.improve governance and tried to work with them on economic and
:17:53. > :17:59.social issues, and to strengthen the institutions, we may have been
:17:59. > :18:04.able to avoid the Taliban coming. This is going back in history. We
:18:04. > :18:08.had President Clinton at the time which was weakened because of the
:18:08. > :18:13.Monica Lewinsky business. When the provinces in eastern Africa were
:18:13. > :18:20.attacked, he limited himself in military responses. Let me finish
:18:20. > :18:24.our response - discussion. Am I right in thinking the world is more
:18:24. > :18:30.dangerous than it was a couple of days ago today? It's been a messy
:18:30. > :18:36.place and a messy world for a long time and this has added another
:18:36. > :18:43.complicated twist. Got a bit more messy? Yes, it's a really messy
:18:43. > :18:48.world when you look around. I mean, Michael gave us a tour of them.
:18:48. > :18:51.That is only a part of the world, the Middle East, you have other
:18:51. > :18:55.regions. We could be here all night going around every country of the
:18:55. > :18:58.organisation you used to run? Exactly. It's been a pleasure to
:18:58. > :19:03.have you on the programme tonight. Thank you very much.
:19:03. > :19:06.In three hours' time, Oprah Winfrey's interview with Lance
:19:06. > :19:11.Armstrong will be broadcast across the globe. Ahead of the television
:19:11. > :19:15.confessional, waiting in the wings, we'll be joined on the sofa by
:19:15. > :19:19.Paula Hamilton and Richard Madeley preparing to come clean and tell us
:19:19. > :19:24.all. If you feel the need to divulge your thoughts, you can join
:19:24. > :19:27.in the discussion on the Twitter, Fleecebook and geed good old
:19:27. > :19:32.interweb. Before the escalation of the hostage situation in Algeria
:19:32. > :19:34.today, Westminster was poised to here hugely anticipated much-
:19:34. > :19:39.discussed speech by the Prime Minister on Britain's relationship
:19:39. > :19:42.with the European Union. Now, it's always been a tricksy topic for
:19:42. > :19:45.Tory leaders, for David Cameron it's proving no different, as we
:19:45. > :19:49.know, the Prime Minister made daesition to cancel the speech just
:19:50. > :19:59.a few hours ago -- decision. This week, we turn to the economist Anne
:20:00. > :20:07.
:20:07. > :20:11.McElvoy for her round-up of the Hello and welcome to Anne's big
:20:11. > :20:15.bite, a very classy burger joint where we serve only the most
:20:15. > :20:22.delicious fare to Westminster's finest with all the trimmings and
:20:23. > :20:26.not an equine in sight - nay! The week we discovered that Tescos had
:20:26. > :20:31.unwittingly included horse meat in its burgers, Mr Cameron served up
:20:31. > :20:35.red meat to Tories with a referendum pledge on Europe.
:20:35. > :20:41.That was something for Ed Miliband to get his teeth into and the
:20:41. > :20:44.atmosphere at PMQs was as hot as one of my sizzling supersized
:20:44. > :20:47.chilli burgers. When the Prime Minister first became leader to
:20:47. > :20:53.have Conservative Party, he said their biggest problem was that they
:20:53. > :21:00.spent far too much of their time banging on about Europe. Is he glad
:21:00. > :21:04.those days are over? Do we look at these changes and see what we can
:21:04. > :21:08.do to maximise Britain's national interests and do we consult the
:21:09. > :21:12.public about that or do we sit back, do nothing and tell the public to
:21:12. > :21:16.go hang. I know where I stand, I know where this party stands, and
:21:16. > :21:18.that's in the national interest. a time when there are one million
:21:18. > :21:23.young people out of work and we have businesses going to the wall,
:21:23. > :21:27.what is he doing? He's spent six months preparing a speech to create
:21:27. > :21:32.five years of uncertainty for Britain. When it comes to Europe,
:21:32. > :21:36.it's the same old Tories - a divided party and a weak Prime
:21:36. > :21:39.Minister. There will be a very simple choice at the next election.
:21:39. > :21:45.If you want to stay out of the Single Currency, you vote
:21:45. > :21:48.Conservative, if you want to join it, you vote Labour. If you want to
:21:48. > :21:52.take power back from Britain, you vote Conservative, if you want to
:21:52. > :21:57.give power to Brussels, you vote Labour. That is the truth. What we
:21:57. > :21:59.see from his position, he wants absolutely no change in the
:21:59. > :22:02.relationship between Britain and Europe and he doesn't believe the
:22:02. > :22:07.British people should be given a choice.
:22:07. > :22:12.Dave does believe we should have a choice, just not until 2018. By
:22:12. > :22:16.putting it all on the back burner, he hopes that he'll buy himself
:22:16. > :22:20.time if he gets re-elect to Number Ten. There are some problems with
:22:20. > :22:24.that. For a start, getting a renegotiation of powers to put to
:22:24. > :22:29.the voters is a bit complicated and he doesn't know whether his present
:22:29. > :22:33.allies like the Dutch will still be backing him by then.
:22:33. > :22:37.Dave's not exactly got a big dollop of support from other European
:22:37. > :22:42.leaders either and at time, the business is unsettled at the idea
:22:42. > :22:46.of its relationships with trading partners being uncertain for years
:22:46. > :22:50.to come. Mr Clegg's been warning that the
:22:50. > :22:53.referendum on Europe would bring a period of instability. If you
:22:54. > :22:58.create years and years of uncertainty about whether we'll be
:22:58. > :23:00.in the European Union or not, I think that creates a degree of
:23:00. > :23:05.uncertainty when what we desperately need at the moment is
:23:06. > :23:13.more stability in the British economy. Same again, love. You've
:23:13. > :23:17.already had four. Are you sure? The Liberal Democrats meanwhile in the
:23:17. > :23:21.Lord's have been accused of flipping their support on boundary
:23:21. > :23:27.changes after their Tory coalition partners refused to support Lord's
:23:27. > :23:31.reform. The truth is, that this is solely, sadly and cynically because
:23:31. > :23:35.the Deputy Prime Minister didn't get his way on Lord's reform. Now
:23:35. > :23:41.he wants to exact a little retribution.
:23:41. > :23:44.It's nothing less than a great political sulk. With the so-called
:23:44. > :23:49.pay role vote approaching half o membership of the Government's side
:23:49. > :23:53.of the House of Commons, the power of Government to control Parliament
:23:53. > :23:58.is effectively increased when I believe my Lords the opposite
:23:58. > :24:02.should be the case. This is therefore not the right time to
:24:02. > :24:06.reduce the ability of the House of Commons to hold executive to
:24:06. > :24:09.account by reducing its membership. The peers have less reason to do
:24:09. > :24:18.deals than mere MPs. I get the impression they are enjoying
:24:18. > :24:21.turning the heat up on the Prime Minister.
:24:21. > :24:26.Gordon Brown, the big Labour beast that was returned to the green
:24:26. > :24:30.benches this week. He hasn't been seen in these parts since 2011 when
:24:30. > :24:33.he returned to roast Rupert Murdoch and it still felt odd seeing the
:24:33. > :24:37.ex-Prime Minister on sparsely populated Labour benches where once
:24:37. > :24:41.there would have been a doughnut of cheesy support. He spoke rather
:24:41. > :24:48.well, but surely he should just turn up a bit more often or change
:24:48. > :24:54.the day job. I rise on behalf of myself and also my two honourable
:24:54. > :25:02.friends to urge the Government to save the jobs, the work programme
:25:02. > :25:06.and the marine business of the Remploy factories in Cowdenbeath in
:25:06. > :25:11.Fife. It's nice to take the weight off my feet after a long shift.
:25:11. > :25:15.Weapon, both the main party leaders have used the dramas to show off
:25:15. > :25:19.their skills in the Westminster food fight -- well, both the main
:25:19. > :25:24.party leaders. This is the starter and the main course could be bloody.
:25:24. > :25:34.Still, it's something for us political hacks to feast on.
:25:34. > :25:37.
:25:37. > :25:44.Mm, I'm good at this... Very big thank you goes to Tom and
:25:44. > :25:49.Terry, they let us take over their fabulous and very popular snack van
:25:49. > :25:53.on Clapham Common. Anne McElvoy, welcome to the programme. We've
:25:53. > :25:56.talked earlier with the Secretary- General about the international
:25:56. > :25:59.situation. Let's talk domestic policies. The Prime Minister
:25:59. > :26:03.postponed his speech in Amsterdam tomorrow. Would it be too
:26:03. > :26:08.mischievous to say this speech might never happen? I think at this
:26:08. > :26:12.point the speech has to happenment it's been put off in circumstances
:26:12. > :26:16.which even Nigel Farage understood, the man who cares more about this
:26:16. > :26:20.than anything else in the world did understand why because of the
:26:20. > :26:24.situation in Algeria. The problem he has with the speech, which you
:26:24. > :26:28.do reflect in your question, is that they built it up into the all-
:26:28. > :26:32.or-nothing this is going to be the answer and trying to build one up
:26:32. > :26:36.into, this is the Oracle, all been relieved will end up with a lot of
:26:36. > :26:41.people saying, that wasn't up to much and wasn't what I wanted to
:26:41. > :26:45.hear. They've made an expectation which is too high. Does the
:26:45. > :26:48.postponement only increase the tension or take it out of the
:26:48. > :26:53.situation? No. It's somewhat increasing the tension. We have got
:26:53. > :26:56.to go through it all again. There's more time for groups within the
:26:56. > :27:04.Conservative Party to agitate, for example. Broadly speaking, I think
:27:04. > :27:07.we are on our way to a car crash. Yes. Multiple? Youth I don't see
:27:07. > :27:10.why our European partners would be willing to negotiate powers away
:27:10. > :27:14.because anything that we get is something that they lose and
:27:14. > :27:17.something that they care about. Secondly, the Prime Minister's made
:27:17. > :27:20.it clear he wants to remain within the European Union, therefore you
:27:20. > :27:23.can't take seriously the threat he might withdraw from the European
:27:23. > :27:27.Union. Thirdly, our European partners will have a very clear
:27:27. > :27:34.view as to the likelihood of the Conservatives winning a majority in
:27:34. > :27:38.the next Parliament. That likelihood is low.
:27:38. > :27:41.Were he to have a renegotiation, whether successful or not, I find
:27:41. > :27:44.it absolutely implausible that the Prime Minister would hold a
:27:44. > :27:48.referendum. This would be a referendum, since he says he wants
:27:48. > :27:52.to be in the European Union, in which he was recommending the
:27:52. > :27:55.answer yes. But people would tend to vote no, firstly because any
:27:55. > :27:59.question with the word Europe in it would invite the answer no.
:27:59. > :28:04.Secondly, any Government asking a question in mid term would invite
:28:04. > :28:09.the answer no. And any loss of a referendum would be absolutely
:28:09. > :28:12.destructive of the authority of the Prime Minister. It would be a
:28:12. > :28:17.calamity. So no renegotiation and no referendum, so this all strikes
:28:17. > :28:21.me as a load of huey. The car crashes happen when the
:28:21. > :28:25.driver's not got a clue where he or she is heading and that is his
:28:25. > :28:29.problem. I think David Cameron's being defined as someone who's
:28:29. > :28:34.utterly defined by tactics, rather than strategy. He's only making the
:28:34. > :28:38.speech at all because of an interview that he cocked up to the
:28:38. > :28:43.Sunday Telegraph. He's been picked apart by his backbenchers. UKIP
:28:43. > :28:51.have ran an effective campaign and he's being driven step by step. The
:28:51. > :28:54.management of this event has just been... I mean I completely agree
:28:54. > :28:59.it's understandable that he cancelled the trip but before that,
:28:59. > :29:04.the management of this has been a catastrophe of somebody he doesn't
:29:04. > :29:11.know what he was trying to do. very fixateed on this date. It's
:29:11. > :29:16.fascinating, you know, why is it 2018? It's as far back as you could
:29:16. > :29:22.go assuming he wins the next election. Basically he'd get one
:29:22. > :29:26.term and a good half-term as Prime Minister. He's well aware he could
:29:26. > :29:31.lose it. I don't think he thinks it's going to happen. What can he
:29:31. > :29:38.do? If he says it's not going to happen, he's finished, he has UKIP
:29:38. > :29:43.at his heels, he's got to say it's going to happen, just not now.
:29:43. > :29:47.reality is, it's worth observing he's been forced into this position
:29:47. > :29:50.of apparently promising a referendum over quite a short time.
:29:50. > :29:53.Until recently, the formula was that whatever any arrangement with
:29:53. > :29:56.Europe was, it had to get the ascent of the British people, were
:29:56. > :30:04.they in a referendum or a general election. So this idea that we have
:30:04. > :30:08.to have a referendum is very, very new and it's a position that's led
:30:08. > :30:13.to it. You know better than most. You know this is where the heart of
:30:13. > :30:16.the party is and therefore whatever you say, we can all pick apart what
:30:16. > :30:19.he's doing. Why isn't that challenged? Michael, you know they
:30:19. > :30:23.don't want to challenge that. You didn't want to challenge that, in
:30:23. > :30:30.fact. So you can see the problem. How do you say, I am Euro-Sceptic
:30:30. > :30:33.but I'm reasonable and I'm trying Euro-sceptic. I can even envisage
:30:33. > :30:37.the circumstances in which I could see Britain leaving the European
:30:37. > :30:42.Union. Although I don't think any party leader will offer a
:30:42. > :30:49.referendum to the British people, I can see that happening. What would
:30:49. > :30:53.the referendum be on then Hang on. What I wouldn't do is say I want to
:30:53. > :30:58.be in the European Union but I will give the British people the
:30:58. > :31:02.opportunity to kick me in the teeth. That would be daft. Do you have any
:31:02. > :31:07.idea what the referendum would be about? No more than anybody else.
:31:07. > :31:13.What I think he is trying to do, as I understand it, what I'm basically
:31:13. > :31:19.saying is don't come back to me if it turns out not to be right.
:31:19. > :31:23.Things can change in Europe, things are changing in Europe. There'll be
:31:23. > :31:28.a German election, lots of things can change. He could say he gets
:31:28. > :31:33.back for it and he will settle for that. You don't negotiate and have
:31:33. > :31:38.a bit of this and that and have a referendum on it. That's absurd.
:31:38. > :31:41.This is highly academic and it assumes so many things, after what
:31:41. > :31:47.we are talking about with the Secretary-General who knows what
:31:47. > :31:52.world we'll be in after 2018. Let's assume he does repatriate powers
:31:52. > :32:02.back to London and says, I'm going to put this to be people. If he
:32:02. > :32:07.votes yes, we stay in on this new arrangement. If we vote know, what?
:32:07. > :32:10.ALL TALK AT ONCE If you have won song on renegotiation would have to
:32:10. > :32:15.swing your party behind it. A biggive but that's what you have to
:32:15. > :32:20.do. Remember that history and precedent goes with a "yes" vote
:32:20. > :32:24.having started with a strong anti- feeling in the country. I do
:32:24. > :32:30.believe you could win a "yes" vote on in or out. And that's what he is
:32:30. > :32:37.banking on as well. But that won't be the question. Let's get on to
:32:37. > :32:43.the important question, Gordon Brown. What's his stit status in
:32:43. > :32:48.the Labour Party today? It is very difficult being a former Prime
:32:48. > :32:54.Minister when you are relatively young. I was watching Gordon there,
:32:54. > :32:58.the first time I've seen that clip. He is on the backbenches, he didn't
:32:58. > :33:02.quite to know what to do with his hands. I think Gordon is popular in
:33:02. > :33:08.the party. I think he is somebody for whom there is still a lot of
:33:08. > :33:13.respect, not least the way in which he handled the crash on behalf of
:33:13. > :33:17.the global financial community. Should he stay in the Commons?
:33:17. > :33:21.was difficulty for Tony, because he stepped down midterm and left the
:33:21. > :33:25.Commons straight away. Gordon had just been elected as an MP when he
:33:25. > :33:31.lost the electionment for him then to say, "I'm not going to hang
:33:31. > :33:37.around the Commons" that would be terrible. But he doesn't hang
:33:37. > :33:42.around the Commons. He's never there! He is not Maggie or Ted
:33:42. > :33:46.Heath chuntering on all the time. The way Tony Blair behaved was
:33:46. > :33:50.disgraceful, because he showed he was using the House of Commons as a
:33:50. > :33:56.sort of public convenience so he could be Prime Minister. The moment
:33:56. > :34:02.he was not Prime Minister he left the place. He had contempt for his
:34:02. > :34:07.constituents and for Parliament, he called a by-election. At least
:34:07. > :34:11.Gordon Brown has appears in the House of Commons. He does the
:34:11. > :34:16.humble thing, he stands on the backbenches and looks uncomfortable,
:34:16. > :34:21.and talks about disabled people who are going to lose their jobs. A lot
:34:21. > :34:26.of Remploy offices closed when he was Chancellor and Prime Minister.
:34:26. > :34:31.I want to give you the final word on this segment and on the Gordon
:34:31. > :34:38.Brown situation. I think he spoke rather well in the Commons. If he
:34:38. > :34:44.could put his pride aside and come back to the common s he could do a
:34:44. > :34:54.lot of good. They can't treat it like a gentlemen's club and turn up
:34:54. > :34:56.
:34:56. > :35:02.a couple of time as year. With great pain I advised Margaret
:35:02. > :35:06.Thatcher, because she asked my advice, she asked whether she
:35:06. > :35:14.should stand at the following election. I said it would be better
:35:14. > :35:19.for her not to stand. Some people have dissident, Churchill did it.
:35:19. > :35:23.He is not going to stand again is he? Gordon? I would be surprised.
:35:23. > :35:26.Thank you. Now, regular viewers will know
:35:26. > :35:29.we're not exactly on the best of terms with the rather vague concept
:35:29. > :35:32.of "truth" here on This Week. Why do you think Alastair looks so at
:35:32. > :35:35.ease and at home on our sofa? But with cyclist Lance Armstrong's
:35:35. > :35:38.much-anticipated interview with Oprah Winfrey about to be broadcast
:35:38. > :35:48.in the early hours, we've decided it's finally time fess up and put
:35:48. > :35:56.
:35:56. > :36:03."coming clean" in this week's I guess I have a sudden tourge say
:36:03. > :36:09.something that I have never really been able to say in public. When
:36:09. > :36:16.actress Jody Foster used the Golden Globes to speak publicly about her
:36:16. > :36:22.sexuality, Hollywood and the world applauded her honesty. Whether
:36:22. > :36:27.drugs cheat and cyclist Lance Armstrong will be so canny remains
:36:27. > :36:35.to be seen. I would say he did not come clean in the manner that I
:36:35. > :36:37.expected. It was surprising to me. Former Number Ten policy guru Steve
:36:37. > :36:42.Hilton admitted that the PM sometimes reads about Government
:36:42. > :36:45.policy in the papers, and often doesn't even agree with it. And
:36:45. > :36:50.supermarkets have been forced to own up that customers were getting
:36:50. > :36:53.more than they bargained for in their bargain beef burgers, with
:36:53. > :36:58.horsemeat and pork adding to the flavour.
:36:58. > :37:02.So when it comes to coming clean, should we keep ourselves to
:37:02. > :37:09.ourselves or tell the world what's really going on and just deal with
:37:09. > :37:13.the consequences? Move We are joined by Paula Hamilton and
:37:13. > :37:19.Richard Madeley. Welcome to you both. Richard, is TV the right
:37:19. > :37:27.place to make a confession? It can be. It depends how you play it. As
:37:27. > :37:33.the interviewer I always favour the oblique approach. He had an
:37:33. > :37:41.exclusive with OJ Simpson just before he was acquitted of murder.
:37:41. > :37:47.We had a lot of advice. They all said, "I would ask him but kill
:37:47. > :37:53.your wife? "Kpwhgs was stupid. He is not going to drop to his knees
:37:53. > :37:58.and say yes, you've got me, I did. In the end the channel lost their
:37:58. > :38:01.bottle and trunkated it by many minutes. In the end you Question
:38:01. > :38:04.Time a confession which isn't expected. We were interviewing
:38:04. > :38:08.years ago Keith Chegwin and there were lots of rumours in the press
:38:08. > :38:12.he had a drink problem. He was denying them. He said he was
:38:12. > :38:19.suffering from stress. A min into it this interview where we were
:38:19. > :38:25.being soft and gentle, he said, "I can't lie, I'm an alcoholic" and he
:38:25. > :38:33.gave us the interview. At the end of it Judy said, "Keith, that took
:38:33. > :38:38.a lot of bottle." Seriously. Celebrity Big Brother, is that
:38:38. > :38:42.confessing on camera? No, it is deflecting yourself. So it's the
:38:42. > :38:48.opposite. Did you know that before you went in to do it or did you
:38:48. > :38:54.discover that on doing it? I have a fantastic TV psychologist and also
:38:54. > :38:58.I've been on Andrew's show - sorry, my darling. Richard. Andrew is my
:38:58. > :39:05.psychologist. I went on Richard & Judy. They asked me when I was
:39:05. > :39:09.coming out about being an alcoholic, I was candid. You were one of the
:39:09. > :39:14.frankest interviews... Do you think if you do a TV confession that's
:39:15. > :39:20.the way to relatively speedy forgiveness? It depends what the
:39:20. > :39:24.confession is and if you readily give it. I remember police
:39:24. > :39:29.vigorously questioned a man they were sure killed his wife and
:39:29. > :39:34.disposed of the body. They couldn't persistent it on him. They sort of
:39:34. > :39:39.connived with us to help, with a live interview. It was a disastrous
:39:39. > :39:46.decision for him to make. He gave a terrible performance. It was clear
:39:46. > :39:53.that he was hiding something. It was clear he was guilty as sin and
:39:53. > :39:57.they rearrested him. He broke. thing about Lance Armstrong, a lot
:39:57. > :40:02.of lawyers are going to be watching what he says, because he's got all
:40:02. > :40:07.these contracts. And the Sunday Times lawyers who lost a libel case.
:40:07. > :40:12.She's hyped it to my mind way over the top. I suspect there'll be a
:40:12. > :40:18.lot of disappointment. She hasn't said that. You interviewed him and
:40:18. > :40:23.you fell for him. I fell for the whole package. I did. I thought he
:40:23. > :40:27.was a great guy. Oprah used the word mesmerising and he is. He
:40:27. > :40:33.convinced me that he worked hard or trained harder, that he was a
:40:33. > :40:39.fitter, better, stronger and more focused cyclist and that's why he
:40:39. > :40:44.won. He said, "I've had more urine samples tested than anyone on the
:40:45. > :40:51.planet and never tested positive." I remember the famous interview
:40:51. > :40:55.with Richard Nixon about which a movie has been made. David Frost
:40:55. > :41:02.had an instinct that Richard Nixon was dying a making a confession
:41:02. > :41:07.that. There was a dam holding back a lot of water. That's why Frost
:41:07. > :41:13.went ahead with those interviews. There is a moment where suddenly
:41:13. > :41:18.head says, I let down the American people, I confess. But find the TV
:41:18. > :41:24.confession a cleansing experience? Yes. I think I also wanted to allow
:41:24. > :41:29.other people to get rid of the stigma of drugs and alcohol. But
:41:29. > :41:32.the nub of the question which you are all missing is, who is the
:41:32. > :41:35.pharmaceutical company that's making the drug and giving it to
:41:35. > :41:40.our Olympic people? Our team players. Who is the pharmaceutical
:41:40. > :41:43.company? And you are the most good looking and most intelligent man on
:41:43. > :41:48.television and I sincerely know that you will get to the bottom of
:41:48. > :41:52.it. So let's stop picking on the individuals and go to the
:41:52. > :41:56.pharmaceutical companies. You can make drugs by some purpose which
:41:56. > :42:00.are then misused by individuals for other purposes. Some people are
:42:00. > :42:04.suspicious that too many of these confessions are stage managed. Are
:42:04. > :42:10.they? I think you can tempt I can't call to mind those which I thought
:42:10. > :42:14.afterwards we had been had, been used. That's basically because Judy
:42:14. > :42:20.and I were both journalists and tended to go for the story rather
:42:20. > :42:24.than the performance. Can you think of any? I can't. Not stage managed
:42:24. > :42:30.but in a sense Diana's, there were three of us in this marriage, was
:42:31. > :42:34.if not stage managed was certainly pre-planned and was part of her PR
:42:34. > :42:40.strategy against Charles. Oprah Winfrey has taken control of this
:42:40. > :42:47.thing. The clips they've put out after Lance, he doesn't come out
:42:47. > :42:52.well. I've seen the one of him rubbing his ear 100 times. She is
:42:52. > :42:57.in control. And he is a control freak but has lost control of this
:42:57. > :43:03.interview. Did you ever advise a politician the only way out of this
:43:03. > :43:09.is to confess? I think there were certainly situations where, well,
:43:09. > :43:15.Peter Mandelson was one when the heat was really up on him... A very
:43:15. > :43:19.recent example, I do fear that if Andrew Mitchell two days after his
:43:19. > :43:26.Downing Street incident had said looks di use the F word but I
:43:26. > :43:33.certainly didn't say pleb, he might have made it. On the paper
:43:33. > :43:38.interviews he never said he didn't use the word pleb. Any were to
:43:38. > :43:41.confess would be deafened by the sound of skeletons coming out of
:43:41. > :43:44.cupboards. No, I'm clean. That's your lot for tonight, folks.
:43:44. > :43:47.Thanks to all our guests this evening. We're giving Annabel's a
:43:47. > :43:51.miss tonight, having a quiet one, and heading straight to bed, so I