By Election Special

:00:09. > :00:14.paid to so many for doing so little on your watch. We have to regulate

:00:14. > :00:19.it properly, which we are doing, to ring-fence the casino banking from

:00:19. > :00:28.the commercial banking. You have made virtually no progress in three

:00:28. > :00:32.years. Please stop interrupting. They are not lending. This is an

:00:32. > :00:40.industry that employs 1 million people and generates �100 billion a

:00:40. > :00:44.year in taxes, which funds the public services we all want. Is it

:00:44. > :00:48.right or wrong for Brussels to do this? Brussels does not have a

:00:48. > :00:52.financial services industry. Britain has the biggest financial

:00:52. > :01:00.services industry in Europe, and we need to regulate it properly. It is

:01:00. > :01:04.not up to Brussels. They are just trying to grab the British powers.

:01:04. > :01:14.It was the bankers who got us into this mess, so if dropping their

:01:14. > :01:17.bonuses makes them go abroad, I say, good. Our time is up, so we must

:01:17. > :01:20.end there. Andrew Neil is on your next with a special election

:01:20. > :01:25.edition of This Week. They will have the results of this by-

:01:25. > :01:29.election, which we have been trying to guess at. They will be on to the

:01:29. > :01:33.early hours until the results come through. Next time, Question Time

:01:33. > :01:36.will be in Dover. We will have Melanie Phillips and Bob Crowe

:01:36. > :01:44.among our panellists. The week after that, we will be in Cardiff.

:01:44. > :01:48.To come to either programme, apply via our website or call us. My

:01:48. > :01:54.thanks to our panel, to all of you who came from your heavy duties as

:01:54. > :02:04.voters in Eastleigh today, and from Question Time until next Thursday,

:02:04. > :02:04.

:02:04. > :03:11.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 67 seconds

:03:11. > :03:18.Tonight on This Week, as the Oscars red carpet is put away for another

:03:18. > :03:23.year, we roll out our purple political carpet. Female superstars

:03:24. > :03:31.dressed to kill. Back home the Lib Dems are doing a Jennifer Lawrence

:03:31. > :03:36.and tripping up over the issue of women. Lib Dem leading lady Miranda

:03:36. > :03:43.Green delivers an emotional speech. No red carpet return for Nick Clegg.

:03:43. > :03:47.He faces the wrath of female activists. This is worse than a

:03:47. > :03:53.trip-up. Daniel Day-Lewis is now a triple Oscar winner, while George

:03:53. > :03:57.Osborne has been stripped of his AAA rating. Best supporting

:03:57. > :04:03.journalist and broadcaster Anne McElvoy reads the Chancellor's poor

:04:03. > :04:05.reviews. His critics lined up to remind him of the huge flop of the

:04:05. > :04:10.British economy but Mr Osborne insists that he is still the

:04:10. > :04:17.leading man for the role. And in an award-winning performance in Rome

:04:17. > :04:21.as the curtain comes down on the career of retiring Pope Benedict,

:04:21. > :04:25.writer and philosopher Alain De Botton looks for something more to

:04:25. > :04:30.believe in. The end of religious commandments to be good shouldn't

:04:30. > :04:39.be mean the end of ethics or indeed our own attempts to try to be kind.

:04:39. > :04:45.And the winner of best political programme is... I've spent all week

:04:45. > :04:52.writing my speech. Evening all, welcome to This Week.

:04:52. > :04:59.Not so much a Pippa Middleton a Friday night feast but more like a

:04:59. > :05:07.Blue Nun Thursday night throw-up. You join us in a funk, because it

:05:07. > :05:11.turns out that George can't sing, has no rhythm and now no AAA rating

:05:12. > :05:21.following the decision of a discredited ratings agency to

:05:21. > :05:26.downgrade the economy and the chances of an election victory.

:05:26. > :05:34.The men said toxic sub-prime mortgages claimed were as safe as

:05:34. > :05:41.the Bank of England, claimed Enron was the bees knees and said should

:05:41. > :05:48.the Titanic hit an iceberg, it wouldn't sink. Humiliated? Not a

:05:48. > :05:53.bit of it. If a Bullingdon Club initiation includes burning a �50

:05:53. > :05:59.note in front of a tramp, torching our AAA rating in front of the

:05:59. > :06:04.money markets is just another student prank courtesy of our

:06:04. > :06:09.everyouthful Chancellor. Speaking of those for whom politics is just

:06:09. > :06:14.one game I'm joined by an older couple whose relationship with

:06:14. > :06:22.easily withstand the stress of living in a confined space with

:06:22. > :06:26.zero atmosphere and only a few sheets of toilet paper. I speak of

:06:26. > :06:32.John Prescott and #sadmanonatrain Michael "choo-choo" Portillo. Your

:06:32. > :06:38.moment of the week. The election result in Italy, which has plunged

:06:38. > :06:43.the euro into crisis once more. I think the Italian people have made

:06:43. > :06:48.a perfectly rational decision, because austerity for the Italians

:06:48. > :06:52.doesn't make any sense if they can't devalue. I celebrate the

:06:52. > :06:55.chaotic result in Italy because the failure of the euro is

:06:55. > :07:04.fundamentally in the best interests of this country and of most of the

:07:04. > :07:08.countries who are members of it. John, your moment of the week.

:07:08. > :07:13.the Lords and the Bill which brings in arbitration for the McCanns and

:07:13. > :07:17.people like that after the Leveson proposals. Governments are not

:07:17. > :07:22.doing it, bringing in the Queen's prerogative. I thought we had a

:07:22. > :07:31.civil war to get away from that prerogative, but the House of Lords

:07:31. > :07:35.made it clear we use -- by using the Defamation Bill there'll be

:07:35. > :07:39.arbitration and a framework as Leveson recommended. My moment of

:07:40. > :07:45.the week is the Eastleigh by- election which was today. And why

:07:45. > :07:49.not go live to Eastleigh now. The BBC's John Pienaar is at the count,

:07:49. > :07:52.which is under way. John, what's the latest from there? What are

:07:52. > :07:57.people saying? What are people feeling about the result? Andrew,

:07:57. > :08:01.it is going to be a long night. They are going be counting and

:08:01. > :08:06.recounting here I think until maybe 3 or 4 o'clock in the morning. But

:08:06. > :08:10.at this stage with maybe less than half the boxes being worked on by

:08:10. > :08:19.the counters behind me, the Liberal Democrats do believe cautiously

:08:19. > :08:28.they are going win this whection. - - this by-election. You can see it,

:08:28. > :08:33.like a man who jumped off a sinkle ship into shark infested waters.

:08:33. > :08:37.The Rennard question will still fill the newspapers but they had to

:08:37. > :08:41.win this by-election. With the roots in this constituency it would

:08:41. > :08:45.have been disastrous if they didn't win in Eastleigh. Every borough,

:08:45. > :08:48.county, parish accountable seat. Not so much an organisation on the

:08:48. > :08:54.ground for the Liberal Democrats but a standing Army. If that didn't

:08:54. > :09:00.give them victory here they would be in deep trouble. What about the

:09:00. > :09:04.Torys? They are not going to get the seat, it seems on these early

:09:04. > :09:08.indications. The party Tory activists, do they look confident

:09:08. > :09:13.to you about anything? No, they do not. The mood among the Tories at

:09:13. > :09:17.the moment is they are struggling. Not at all sure that they are even

:09:17. > :09:26.going to get second place. The UK Independence Party looks like it is

:09:26. > :09:28.going to gate good result in this themselves as the new party of the

:09:28. > :09:33.protest, the none of the above party, it is not just about Europe

:09:33. > :09:38.on this result. David Cameron's promise of an inout referendum on

:09:38. > :09:47.Europe doesn't by in means seems to have subdued them. UKIP are looking

:09:47. > :09:51.very happy today. Whatever happens tonight, they are going to have a

:09:51. > :09:56.good result. Labour, the coalition partners knocking lumps out of each

:09:56. > :10:00.other. John, if the early indications are right, and I know

:10:00. > :10:04.it's a big if and the count is going on, you are telling us that

:10:04. > :10:08.the early indications are that the Lib Dems are likely to hold the

:10:08. > :10:12.seat and there is a strong possibility maybe even a

:10:12. > :10:21.probability that UKIP could come second. If these are right, that is

:10:21. > :10:26.a disastrous night for David Cameron. You've got to put the

:10:26. > :10:34.words disastrous and crisis, if the Tories come third behind UKIP, Jess

:10:34. > :10:39.it is -- yes it is a disaster. All sorts of turmoil on the Tory

:10:39. > :10:44.backbenches, pressure for tacking to the right on immigration, on el

:10:44. > :10:49.fair, on public spending. You name it, he is going to feel the

:10:49. > :10:54.pressure from the right-wing of his own party. The media will go to

:10:54. > :11:02.down if he can't hold on this second place. Yes he'll be leader

:11:02. > :11:06.and Prime Minister, but after this inest born he may wish up wishing

:11:06. > :11:10.he wasn't. If there are any developments, let us know right

:11:10. > :11:16.away. Another week, another scandal

:11:16. > :11:21.courtesy of the gift that keeps on giving. This time their chief

:11:21. > :11:27.executive and election supremo Chris Rennard is accused of

:11:27. > :11:31.harassing female party members. He denies it. Nick Clegg said he

:11:31. > :11:38.didn't remember it but then said he might have remembered something but

:11:38. > :11:42.it was unspecific. And then Lord Rennard resigned for health reasons.

:11:42. > :11:48.Only the sex dems could bring us a sex scandal that doesn't bring us

:11:48. > :11:58.any sex. What's going on? We asked our own Miranda Green, former

:11:58. > :12:04.

:12:04. > :12:12.adviser to Paddy Ashdown, for her These aren't the corridors of power.

:12:12. > :12:15.But give than week's coverage of the sex pest scandal, most of the

:12:15. > :12:20.public proper do equate the Palace of Westminster with a pick-up joint.

:12:20. > :12:23.After all, both are full of creepy older men hitting on vulnerable

:12:23. > :12:31.younger women, aren't they? There is no doubt all of this is

:12:31. > :12:41.catastrophic for the Lib Dems. The former chief executive, Chris

:12:41. > :12:42.

:12:42. > :12:49.Rennard is accused of making advances to women over whom he had

:12:49. > :12:53.power. Even more damaging to Nick Clegg was the cover-ups, and the

:12:53. > :12:58.ingredient. Was the circle economical with the stphruth this

:12:58. > :13:08.story will leave a nasty aftertaste and lose the party votes in the by-

:13:08. > :13:17.

:13:18. > :13:24.election. -- economical with the After years of drinking deep drafts

:13:24. > :13:30.of complacency about their lack of women MPs, the Lib Dem high-ups are

:13:30. > :13:39.waking up with one hell of a hangover. Once we've processed all

:13:39. > :13:44.of this toxicity, what will we have left? The impression being given

:13:44. > :13:51.that the Commons is full of predatory men on the prowl for

:13:51. > :13:55.unwary innocent females on whom to pounce is ludicrous. It is already

:13:55. > :13:59.having a tragic effect on getting more women into Parliament. Not one

:13:59. > :14:07.but two talented young women Lib Dems told me this has put them off

:14:07. > :14:11.becoming an MP. I've worked at Westminster for several years as a

:14:11. > :14:21.Lib Dem apparatchik and a political party and I can tell you there are

:14:21. > :14:25.much more sexist places to work. You can't elite fear of groping

:14:25. > :14:31.keep women away from Westminster, where power still lies. So come on

:14:31. > :14:40.in, sisters, the water's fine. I can't keep propping up the bar on

:14:41. > :14:47.my own. The spirits are willing but my flesh is weak.

:14:47. > :14:51.Her tab's still open if you want to pop down to the cocktail bar in

:14:51. > :14:56.Soho. She now joins us in our little cocktail bar in Westminster.

:14:56. > :15:00.Welcome. Do you agree with Shirley Williams that this story, in her

:15:00. > :15:02.words, has been hopelessly exaggerate? I think that the

:15:02. > :15:07.impression that Westminster and the House of Commons specifically is

:15:07. > :15:14.not a safe place to be a woman is really disastrous. I think it is

:15:14. > :15:17.just wrong. So in that sense yes, I do. I think that you could decide,

:15:17. > :15:21.I'm sure people on Twitter will decide later there is something

:15:21. > :15:25.deeply wrong with me. But in all my career at Westminster none of this

:15:25. > :15:30.has ever happened to me. It is a great place to work if you are a

:15:30. > :15:36.woman and the impression give than week is deeply damaging. Are you

:15:36. > :15:43.sure that Shirley Williams isn't wrong, and that the Chris Rennard

:15:43. > :15:46.behaviour is, as it is alleged, more widespread at Westminster?

:15:46. > :15:51.People have different experiences. I'm sure this happens in all

:15:51. > :15:55.parties. That's my point. Yes, but look at the City of London. Look at

:15:55. > :16:00.industry. Actually, one of the things I think is really

:16:00. > :16:04.encouraging this week. It has been a very bad week. But this culture

:16:04. > :16:08.of omerta, that you can't speak up in a political party, that you owe

:16:08. > :16:11.loyalty to the extent of not speaking up for yourself, this has

:16:11. > :16:19.been broken by these women and they've stood up for themselves.

:16:19. > :16:23.That's very positive. There's been a lot of female solid arity and we

:16:23. > :16:27.ought to celebrate what's changed in the House of Commons. Since that

:16:27. > :16:32.great 1997 moment when the Labour Party bit the bullet and had all-

:16:32. > :16:35.women short-lists, the culture has changed enormously. I genuinely

:16:35. > :16:40.think it would be sad if women didn't get involved in politics

:16:40. > :16:44.because of this. It has changed but the Westminster power structure is

:16:44. > :16:50.still largely older men in an area populated bay lot of younger women

:16:50. > :16:55.who've ambitions to get on. Does that really make it a safe

:16:55. > :17:00.stphrirment It has already been pointed -- a safe environment in

:17:00. > :17:05.the It has already been pointed out that we chose selection procedures

:17:05. > :17:08.where 25% were women. I support. That people feel they are put off

:17:08. > :17:12.because the people who make the decision - the men - they need to

:17:12. > :17:16.get on with, because they could affect whether they become a Member

:17:16. > :17:21.of Parliament. Most of them say they wanted to become a Member of

:17:21. > :17:27.Parliament but were put off by the groping and these stories. You have

:17:27. > :17:33.to do more to want women Vut to increase the possibility by using a

:17:33. > :17:34.discriminatory method. Do you think behaviour that's involved and the

:17:34. > :17:41.accusations against Chris Rennard is quite widespread in Westminster,

:17:41. > :17:44.that this is not a one-off? wouldn't say it simply applies to

:17:44. > :17:48.the Liberals. Through all the political systems and all political

:17:48. > :17:58.partys the women will tell you they've been involved in something.

:17:58. > :18:05.

:18:05. > :18:09.I haven't, John. It is better than when I was in the

:18:09. > :18:15.city of London. That was much worse. You have to say to women, this is a

:18:15. > :18:21.culture in which you are here, you get by on your wits. Then you can

:18:21. > :18:24.change things for all women. Michael?

:18:24. > :18:29.One has to distinguish between relationships and improper

:18:29. > :18:33.relationships, of which there are a lot. In this case, allegedly, we

:18:33. > :18:38.are talking about the abuse of power, using sex as a way of

:18:38. > :18:45.controlling people. He was in a position to control their future.

:18:45. > :18:49.may sound like Nick Clegg, I have not heard of that before. In any

:18:49. > :18:54.party. If you agree with Shirley Williams

:18:54. > :19:01.that this has been exaggerated, if you don't think this is widespread,

:19:01. > :19:05.doesn't that make Nick Clegg's handling of the affair even worse?

:19:05. > :19:09.It has been really bad. It is a textbook case of how to keep a

:19:09. > :19:17.story running when you should have handled it at the beginning. But I

:19:17. > :19:22.think the problem is for the Lib Dems. Because of this chronic under

:19:22. > :19:27.representation of women in the House of Commons, there's a well of

:19:27. > :19:33.resentment in the party about how women are treated generally.

:19:34. > :19:38.Therefore, there's a sort of desire to speak up for these women, not to

:19:39. > :19:44.side with the leadership. Why did he handle it so badly?

:19:44. > :19:50.I think he and a lot of people felt a lot of loyalty to Lord Rennard,

:19:50. > :19:54.who they worked with closely over the years. I think that, frankly,

:19:54. > :19:58.these small organisations, you have got half professionals, half

:19:58. > :20:05.volunteers, there are not really the structures that people, for

:20:05. > :20:09.example, in the business world would expect. Hold on, the Lib Dems

:20:09. > :20:19.have been acting in an unctuous way for years about how other

:20:19. > :20:19.

:20:19. > :20:23.institutions need to know how to handle these matters. Yes, I agree.

:20:23. > :20:28.And they have lectured business about it. They have elected

:20:28. > :20:32.institutions. Nick Clegg has lectured the BBC about the handling

:20:32. > :20:36.of the Jimmy Savile business. When it is at his front door, he is

:20:36. > :20:41.missing in action. It is how you deal with it once it

:20:41. > :20:46.is known. What is so terrible about this is that they did nothing about

:20:46. > :20:50.it. That is the real problem. Most of these women have said, I have

:20:50. > :20:56.made a complaint, I don't want to disadvantage the party, and then

:20:56. > :21:01.the man comes back. They are saying to themselves, they just don't care.

:21:01. > :21:06.I don't disagree with this but I'm trying to explain that I think that

:21:06. > :21:10.in politics, it is a peculiar world. It is not like business. A lot of

:21:10. > :21:15.it is done through networking. There are people on the outside who

:21:15. > :21:20.are involved. The power relationships are more ambiguous

:21:20. > :21:27.than they would be in a formal hierarchy, somewhere like the BBC,

:21:27. > :21:31.or a business. It is not an excuse in any way. Does Nick Clegg have to

:21:31. > :21:37.win in Eastleigh tonight to keep his leadership going for the short

:21:37. > :21:44.term? If they hold on, even by a narrow majority, it is important

:21:44. > :21:49.for him. He is enormously damaged by this. And if the early

:21:49. > :21:56.indications were wrong and he lost...? It would have been

:21:56. > :21:59.catastrophic. He turned it into a judgment on his judgment. It became

:21:59. > :22:09.a story about Nick Clegg. mistake.

:22:09. > :22:14.It is the most extraordinary thing that the Lib Dems, with terrible

:22:14. > :22:17.ratings, and because of the by- election... If these indications

:22:17. > :22:27.that we are getting are right, and they are similar to ones I have had

:22:27. > :22:29.

:22:29. > :22:34.from other people down there, to, what does that mean for Mr Cameron?

:22:35. > :22:39.Who? When we were here three weeks ago,

:22:39. > :22:44.the Tories were thought to have a lead. That seemed the most probable

:22:44. > :22:47.thing. Then there was the selection of the candidate. Worse than that

:22:47. > :22:54.was the apparent decision of the leadership that the candidate

:22:54. > :22:59.should be hidden, which led to chaos, absolute chaos. Perhaps this

:22:59. > :23:05.is lucky for David Cameron. There will be a focus on what happened in

:23:05. > :23:14.the by-election. To the extent they can focus on that, they may be able

:23:14. > :23:19.to hold off some criticism. They deliberately chose a poor

:23:19. > :23:23.candidate?! David Cameron may say this is not a reflection on the

:23:23. > :23:33.government, it is the circumstances of the by-election which were run

:23:33. > :23:35.

:23:35. > :23:40.badly. That is the line. I saw this leaflet issued by the Tories. You'd

:23:40. > :23:45.have thought it was by UKIP. Politics is an unforgiving business,

:23:45. > :23:51.though. You win an election one-day and the party faithful take it for

:23:51. > :23:56.granted. A couple of weeks or months later, these independent

:23:56. > :24:05.reports come out. This could still come back to haunt Mr Clegg.

:24:05. > :24:10.definite. A leader needs loyalty in a tricky spot. Being in a coalition

:24:10. > :24:16.with a natural enemy is a tricky spot. That loyalty from the party,

:24:16. > :24:20.he has got to find a way to recapture it quickly. It is about

:24:20. > :24:26.judgment as well. That is at the heart of this. His own people must

:24:26. > :24:31.be saying, was the last statement inoperable? It is about the

:24:31. > :24:36.judgment of the individual. Thank you for being with us. We are going

:24:36. > :24:40.to let you go so you can get home in time to watch our special.

:24:40. > :24:46.According to research this week, amazingly, people lie about how

:24:46. > :24:50.much they drink. I can't believe that! The researchers forgot to

:24:50. > :24:54.mention that the Sturry -- study was carried out in our green room,

:24:54. > :25:02.so we are not sure it is representative. For those of us

:25:02. > :25:07.with a more sober mind, a philosopher is here to find out why

:25:07. > :25:12.we struggle so much to believe. For those of us with little faith, you

:25:12. > :25:17.can stare into the void of emptiness known as Twitter,

:25:17. > :25:21.Facebook, and the good old missionary position internet. We

:25:21. > :25:26.are a classy bunch, which is why the production of us were excited

:25:26. > :25:32.to hear about the most exciting story of the week - Cheryl coal's

:25:32. > :25:39.new tattoo. Would you believe it, it is two red roses. He knew she

:25:39. > :25:49.was such a fan of Labour? We sent a journalist to a tattoo parlour that

:25:49. > :25:53.

:25:53. > :25:59.we know. This is her round-up of She has got one. David Beckham has

:25:59. > :26:06.got his. What with me being at the cutting edge of Westminster's

:26:06. > :26:15.hipsters, I won't be left behind. The things I do for the modest

:26:15. > :26:21.compensation of This Week! Some tattoos are caught the tramp stand,

:26:21. > :26:31.but that will not apply to my high end body art. If it is good enough

:26:31. > :26:43.

:26:43. > :26:46.for Samantha Cameron... And she is George Osborne had this stamped on

:26:47. > :26:51.his heart when he said that Britain's economic competence

:26:51. > :26:59.should be seen as a sign of his staying power. But it goes to show

:26:59. > :27:03.that nothing is certain in politics. Britain's credit rating has been

:27:03. > :27:11.downgraded, like a cheap tumble dryer. At least he per -- prepared

:27:11. > :27:16.us for the bad performance. The markets had factored it in. Anyway

:27:16. > :27:22.you can get rid of one of those letters as?

:27:22. > :27:27.This decision is a stark reminder of the debt problems built up in

:27:27. > :27:35.Britain over the last decade. It is a warning to anyone who thinks we

:27:35. > :27:39.can run away from dealing with those problems. The downgrading is,

:27:39. > :27:44.in this Chancellor's own words, a humiliation for this government.

:27:44. > :27:48.Let me remind the House what he promised. He said the British

:27:48. > :27:53.people will have transparent benchmark against which they can

:27:53. > :27:58.judge the economic success or failure of the next government. No.

:27:58. > :28:03.One, we will safeguard Britain's credit rating.

:28:03. > :28:08.And it is not just Britain in trouble. The eurozone is still

:28:08. > :28:13.careering to political upheaval. Those European bankers have even

:28:13. > :28:18.been threatened by the EU with having their bonuses capped. The

:28:18. > :28:23.markets have been spooked by Italy's election stalemate. Could

:28:23. > :28:33.they be about to abandon their austerity programme and decide they

:28:33. > :28:35.

:28:35. > :28:40.prefer a good laugh? Not so many people are happy to support the Lib

:28:40. > :28:45.Dem bird at the moment. The party that is long hovering under the

:28:45. > :28:51.wings of the two Wayne -- main ones has had a horrible week and a lot

:28:51. > :29:00.more scrutiny than it is used to. There have been allegations that

:29:00. > :29:07.Lord Rennard got a bid to -- a bit too senior with some of the junior

:29:07. > :29:11.ministers. When concerns arrived, we dealt with them. Nick Clegg's

:29:11. > :29:17.early statement swayed between an apology and a defence. That is

:29:17. > :29:20.never a good place to be as leader. Which one is it? His shifting

:29:20. > :29:24.pronouncement has prised open tensions within his own ranks and

:29:24. > :29:28.in the coalition. But I would say the other party leaders would hate

:29:28. > :29:36.to going for the kill unless a Lothario emerges within their own

:29:36. > :29:39.ranks. Perish the thought. 10 years ago, we had bigger stuff

:29:39. > :29:43.to worry about - the Iraq war was beginning, and for many, what

:29:43. > :29:48.followed became an indelible stain on Tony Blair's Premiership and the

:29:48. > :29:52.beginning of his divorce from the Labour Party. One look at him now

:29:52. > :29:56.shows the war he fought alongside George Bush did take a personal

:29:56. > :30:06.toll on him. But his interview also suggested that his favourite nude

:30:06. > :30:07.

:30:07. > :30:15.meeting remains the French song. -- mood music. 100,000 civilians have

:30:15. > :30:18.been killed. 179 British soldiers have died. Was it too high a price?

:30:18. > :30:25.Of course the price was high. high?

:30:25. > :30:34.Think of the pious -- price they paid before. Think of the Iraq-Iran

:30:34. > :30:38.war, in which there were hundreds of thousands of casualties.

:30:38. > :30:42.The emotional nature of the debate means it is still hard to draw up a

:30:42. > :30:46.final audit, and I suspect that in another 10 years the rows about Mr

:30:47. > :30:51.Blair's great Iraq gamble will still be simmering, whatever other

:30:51. > :30:58.shocks and scandals I will be covering by then. And when, I'm

:30:58. > :31:02.assured by my producer, these tattoos will have faded.

:31:02. > :31:06.Generally, though, the art of politics is dealing with

:31:06. > :31:16.impermanence and shifting alliances. But there's one passion that is

:31:16. > :31:25.

:31:25. > :31:32.forever - yes, Andrew, that means Anne, getting some ink but there --

:31:32. > :31:36.some think the there. The Lib Dems feel more confident now than they

:31:36. > :31:42.did half an hour ago. Labour are briefing us that they are forced,

:31:42. > :31:52.and a poor fourth. They believe the Lib Dems have won, but it is tight

:31:52. > :32:02.

:32:02. > :32:09.Michael, has Mr Osborne been damaged by the loss of the AAA

:32:09. > :32:13.state you? Yes, George Osborne staked a it lot on the AAA rating

:32:13. > :32:20.and the Government dearly hoped they were going to save it. Indeed

:32:21. > :32:26.I don't think there would have been a coalition in the first place if

:32:26. > :32:29.that hadn't been the objective. Trying to keep down the cost of

:32:29. > :32:35.Government debt, these are objectives that made it worth

:32:36. > :32:38.trying to find a coalition Government. It is not an economic

:32:38. > :32:44.disaster but it is certainly something that damages George

:32:44. > :32:47.Osborne. Did he make a mistake pinning too much emphasis on

:32:47. > :32:55.maintaining the AAA state us? He could have said it is what we want

:32:55. > :32:59.to do and we will strive to do it, but he made it numero uno objective.

:32:59. > :33:03.He did two-and-a-half years ago. What we now think about AAA ratings

:33:03. > :33:09.is different from what we thought then. Since then France and the

:33:09. > :33:19.United States have lost their AAA ratings without any apparent dill

:33:19. > :33:21.

:33:21. > :33:25.tears effect. There are only three -- without any dill tears effect. I

:33:25. > :33:30.think where we was in 2010, no, it was a reasonable objective to have.

:33:30. > :33:34.John, we look at the state of the Government's economic policy at the

:33:34. > :33:38.moment and most of the indicators by which they want to judge

:33:38. > :33:42.themselves are going in the wrong direction. Even the deficit is now

:33:42. > :33:50.not falling in this financial year. And by their own definition.

:33:50. > :33:57.Exactly. Should not Ed Balls be landing more hard pumps on the Tory

:33:57. > :34:01.frontbench? He is just quoting what they promised. When they came in

:34:01. > :34:06.this that election the big thing was the get the election down. They

:34:06. > :34:11.haven't achieved that but that's what they wanted to do. If they had

:34:11. > :34:15.said it doesn't matter about the AAA it would have undermined their

:34:15. > :34:20.positions. So I think he's been damaged by that. I think Ed's

:34:20. > :34:23.turned out to be right. The problem with the plan B at the moment is

:34:23. > :34:27.that the present policy by Osborne is the same as Cameron. They are

:34:28. > :34:33.two together. That's their policy. If they was to change Osborne now

:34:33. > :34:38.and change the policy would be back to the argument about a plan B. It

:34:38. > :34:44.is growth. How do you get to it after he's Goth himself anchored

:34:44. > :34:53.into one particular policy. Is Ed Balls's historic links with Gordon

:34:53. > :35:00.Brown still a negative for Labour and in public perception? In public

:35:00. > :35:05.perception, I don't know how they can really justify it. The thing

:35:05. > :35:09.that saved us so far is not being in the euro. Who wanted to be in

:35:09. > :35:15.the your o? The central position that the Tories now claim, an

:35:15. > :35:19.advantage that we are in there and are out of it was Ed Balls, so on

:35:20. > :35:23.that fundamental decision he is right. I think Ed Balls is the

:35:23. > :35:27.problem because he is so closely associated with the broad range of

:35:27. > :35:33.Gordon Brown's policies which led us into our present mess. The other

:35:33. > :35:37.thing is that as we see the debt rise and the deficit not evening

:35:37. > :35:42.falling, the only thing Ed Balls seems to be saying is we should

:35:42. > :35:47.borrow more. That's a very difficult message to carry any

:35:47. > :35:52.credibility. It is duff but it is the argument of growth. If you want

:35:52. > :35:56.to cut the areas with consumption is great you take 1 million people

:35:56. > :35:59.out of the public service and assume they've got it in the

:35:59. > :36:02.private sector, you have an immediate effect on the economy.

:36:02. > :36:07.He's saying, and I think he is right, you need to growth to get

:36:07. > :36:11.the tax and the income coming We are in a policy now where you are

:36:11. > :36:16.not going to get the demand into the economy for the next three or

:36:16. > :36:21.four years, so you pay more in unemployment and the debt gets

:36:21. > :36:29.worse. It is a difficult one to get across. It is. The polls suggest he

:36:29. > :36:34.hasn't managed to get it across yet. I don't think he is up enough

:36:34. > :36:40.explaining it. Perhaps he might feel intimidated but he's really

:36:40. > :36:44.got to go out and make the case. Could Ed Miliband move him from the

:36:44. > :36:48.Shadow Chancellorship this side of the election? Don't think so, no.

:36:48. > :36:53.And I don't think, frankly, what are you going to do, change the

:36:53. > :36:58.policies from what he is saying, "You need growth? Maybe if Alistair

:36:58. > :37:00.Darling was saying it, white have more credibility. Now you are in to

:37:00. > :37:08.the argument of political credibility and that's a difficult.

:37:08. > :37:13.He made the decision. He had AlJohn sons there first of all. Mr Balls

:37:13. > :37:18.was Mr Miliband's third choice. was personally supportive that he

:37:18. > :37:22.should come in, Ed Balls. Let me come to you with Tony Blair. We saw

:37:22. > :37:26.that clip, there the long interview in two parts on Newsnight. With

:37:26. > :37:30.what you know now and what we all know now, are you still as certain

:37:30. > :37:35.as Mr Blair that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do?

:37:35. > :37:39.absolutely not certain at all. What struck me about that interview and

:37:39. > :37:42.has struck me so often hearing Tony Blair talk over the years, he

:37:42. > :37:45.claims that the right thing to do was the remove the Saddam Hussein

:37:45. > :37:49.regime. When we were debating in Parliament before the vote, he told

:37:49. > :37:53.Parliament that he had no aspiration to remove that regime.

:37:53. > :37:58.If that regime gave up its weapons of mass destruction, the regime

:37:58. > :38:03.could stay in place. So now to use the argument that it has all been

:38:03. > :38:07.made worthwhile byry moving Saddam Hussein is very dishonest. When he

:38:07. > :38:12.makes that point about want would have happened, Iraq used to fight

:38:12. > :38:17.Iran. Yes Iraq did used to fight Iran. Iraq used to keep Iran in its

:38:17. > :38:20.place. One of the things we've seen since the Iraq war is Iran is the

:38:20. > :38:25.regional superpower with no competitor, nothing to hold it in

:38:25. > :38:31.check. John, it is ten years since Mr Blair's Government began, with

:38:31. > :38:37.the Americans, the invasion of Iraq. As we look back with the benefit of

:38:37. > :38:42.hindsight, was it the wrong thing to do? Yep. I think it was wrong,

:38:42. > :38:46.based on the decision, we can have all that argument, given the

:38:46. > :38:49.information about the nuclear, it looked to be right. The real

:38:49. > :38:57.problem with Tony thinking through this process, Rwanda had a major

:38:57. > :39:04.effect on him with the massacres that took place there. We didn't do

:39:04. > :39:12.anything about that. And the UN. I think it encouraged him to think

:39:12. > :39:16.you can still act this way, hopeful to get the Americans in on UN. When

:39:16. > :39:21.he sent me to talk to Cheney and others, it was clear. They are

:39:21. > :39:26.going to go in without you. It doesn't matter. They are getting

:39:26. > :39:31.ready. Did you have misgivings at the time? I said Tony, they are

:39:31. > :39:36.going to do that. Bush was quite prepared to have a plan for Israel.

:39:36. > :39:40.And the whole problem in regard to Palestine. He went further than

:39:40. > :39:44.Clinton in that case, right? And therefore that plan was something

:39:44. > :39:48.but it fell apart, as it often does in American politics, because the

:39:48. > :39:51.influence domestically is too great. What you hoped for was the UN. It

:39:51. > :39:55.didn't come about. You hope the Israel one, the new alternative

:39:55. > :40:00.plan would work. It didn't, because of the same position. Looking back

:40:00. > :40:03.on, that I was hopeful that would come out of it. It didn't. Indeed

:40:03. > :40:08.at the end of the day Tony Blair obviously said to himself, I promed

:40:08. > :40:15.to do this and I'm going to do it and that is today's consequences.

:40:15. > :40:22.And I have to be part of that. I can't disown it. I go through my

:40:22. > :40:28.thoughts but it cannot be justified as an intervention. Thank you. In

:40:28. > :40:34.the words of the great existential philosopher R Kelly, I believe I

:40:34. > :40:43.can fly. I think about it every day, spread my ewings and fly away. Why

:40:43. > :40:51.do so many others appear to be losing their faith. We believe in

:40:51. > :41:01.the sacred Trinity of late night TV, St Diane, St Mike and a holy bottle

:41:01. > :41:01.

:41:02. > :41:06.of Blue Nun. We've decided to put belief in this week's spotlight.

:41:06. > :41:11.Whether it is priests, politicians the police or institutions like the

:41:11. > :41:16.BBC, a broken society presents challenges for our personal beliefs.

:41:16. > :41:20.This week it seems we've lost faith in the Lib Dems, again. As former

:41:20. > :41:25.chief executive Chris Rennard is accused of inappropriate sexual

:41:25. > :41:33.behaviour. But Nick Clegg is still a believer. I will not stand by and

:41:33. > :41:41.allow my party to be subject to a show trial of innuendo, half truths

:41:41. > :41:45.and slurs. Comedian Beppe Grillo has drained faith in Italian

:41:45. > :41:51.politics with his anti-austerity approach. Catholics are in

:41:51. > :41:57.disbelief over Pope Benedict's stepping down and Cardinal

:41:57. > :42:00.O'Brien's retirement in Scotland. I'm really surprised. It is

:42:00. > :42:05.shocking. I think quite right. There's double standards going on.

:42:05. > :42:12.I think it is about time really that the Church moves on. Even NHS

:42:12. > :42:15.treasures are deemed to be losing our trust, with NHS chief executive

:42:15. > :42:20.Sir David Nicholson under pressure following the Mid-Staffordshire

:42:20. > :42:26.hospital scandal. What will it take the regain the nation's belief in

:42:26. > :42:31.an increasingly Godless society in the if Waitrose can put their faith

:42:31. > :42:35.in Pippa Middleton, maybe UKIP really do have a solid chance of

:42:35. > :42:39.winning the'll by-election. And we are joined by Alain De

:42:39. > :42:43.Botton. Does it matter if people don't believe in anything?

:42:43. > :42:47.course it matters. They do believe in things. There is an assumption

:42:47. > :42:51.that once religion disappears from the national landscape there's

:42:51. > :42:56.total disagreement on all ethical issues. There season. Gather a

:42:56. > :43:01.group of strange ers in a room and ask, do we have things this common,

:43:01. > :43:07.and people will come up with many of the same thing. Religion out of

:43:08. > :43:11.to be central to this country's belief system, an overwhelmingly

:43:11. > :43:16.Christian country for many centuries. Was it then replaced by

:43:16. > :43:21.secular gods, for a while everybody was a Tory or a Liberal in the 19th

:43:21. > :43:24.century. Political parties, the NHS, even the BBC. Is it a mistake to

:43:24. > :43:28.transfer that faith to institutions? I think what's

:43:28. > :43:34.legitimate is to ask once religion disappears what do you do with many

:43:34. > :43:39.of the longings that religious institutions catered for? What do

:43:39. > :43:44.you do with people's search from meaning, for meaning, for their

:43:44. > :43:47.desire to be good, to meet their end feeling they've contributed to

:43:47. > :43:52.society? These are genuine questions. I think things like the

:43:52. > :43:56.BBC, the NHS or politics doesn't fully answer the depths of people's

:43:56. > :44:00.needs. If you look at faith and belief, of course it can be hugely

:44:00. > :44:06.comforting to people I understand the need for it. But it can also

:44:06. > :44:11.blind. A faith in the Catholic Church, blinded people to the

:44:11. > :44:15.widespread abuse by priests. Belief that we had the best police in the

:44:15. > :44:21.world often blinded us to the corruption in the police force. A

:44:21. > :44:26.belief that the NHS is the envy of the world, blinded us to nurses who

:44:26. > :44:31.don't care. Absolutely. I speak as an atheist. One of the most

:44:31. > :44:36.charming and interesting aspects of Catholicism is its doctrinal belief

:44:36. > :44:40.that human being is flawed, that the only perfect human being is God

:44:40. > :44:43.and he isn't among us. Most people are flawed. That's the starting

:44:43. > :44:48.point. That is often forgotten by Catholics and secular people. If

:44:48. > :44:53.you are living in the world of human being your starting point has

:44:53. > :44:58.to be this is a relatively broengs fragile, insecure person I'm

:44:58. > :45:03.dealing. We are not made to be idealised. If you do, we shatter

:45:03. > :45:10.when knocks come along. For people of faith, what do you think they

:45:10. > :45:14.made of when the Pope retired today, that remarkable quote, there were

:45:14. > :45:17.times when God appeared to be sleeping. Was he having a wobble?

:45:17. > :45:24.think he was flirting with the Church of England. They have an

:45:24. > :45:29.idea that God is around but probably sleeping. I thought it it

:45:29. > :45:35.was Church of England that was sleeping. That too. John, when did

:45:35. > :45:40.you lose your faith in socialism? I'm a practical politician. We had

:45:40. > :45:46.the big argument about Clause 4 in the Labour Party. I said don't do

:45:46. > :45:49.that, you are tearing the heart of the party. Nobody takes any notice

:45:49. > :45:54.of it but I understood we needed to make the change, so we went through

:45:54. > :45:56.the change. We drew up something that started off, we are the

:45:56. > :46:01.democratic Socialist Party. I'm more interested in the practical

:46:01. > :46:07.ways of how you achieve the values that you have in your faith and in

:46:07. > :46:13.your belief. How is your faith doing on free markets? Doing very

:46:13. > :46:16.well. You are still a true believer. Not unrestricted free markets

:46:16. > :46:21.butning the last ten years we've moved very much in the wrong

:46:21. > :46:25.direction and we need to move back to somewhere close to where we were

:46:25. > :46:29.ten years ago. You've drawn up Ten Commandments for the Godless.

:46:29. > :46:33.What's the first one? Empathy, but trying to understand what's going

:46:33. > :46:39.on in a stranger's mind. We are all so good at self justification and

:46:39. > :46:43.so bad at trying to imagine what's going non-the other one.

:46:43. > :46:47.shouldn't bit thou shallot not kill? He a go at trying to imagine

:46:47. > :46:55.what are the things we can agree on? If you look at secular society,

:46:55. > :47:02.what are the values we can agree on. I drew up a list of then, -- a list

:47:02. > :47:09.of ten. For those of us lacking in empathy... I used to say to Tony

:47:09. > :47:12.you are a Social Democrat really. I thought he was a Christian Democrat.

:47:12. > :47:18.He is a Christian Democrat and that was him. We'll leave it there.

:47:18. > :47:28.Alain De Botton, thank you. Unusually that's not your lot for

:47:28. > :47:33.

:47:33. > :47:39.tonight, because with the Eastleigh election providing more excitement

:47:39. > :47:49.than Annabels. We'll be chewing over all the by-election issues and

:47:49. > :48:23.

:48:23. > :48:31.comes in. If you like your politics In 2003 Chris Huhne was an MEP. His

:48:31. > :48:37.car was caught speeding on the M11. His wife told the police she had

:48:37. > :48:43.been driving and she received penalty points on his licence.

:48:43. > :48:49.Years later Chris Huhne was MP for the seat of Eastleigh. His family

:48:49. > :48:57.featured in his leaflets. In one he said getting married doesn't seem

:48:57. > :49:07.like 26 years ago. But in 2010 he left his wife for this worges his

:49:07. > :49:08.

:49:08. > :49:11.He was the Climate Change Secretary and he was prepared to confront the

:49:11. > :49:17.Prime Minister across the Cabinet table during the referendum on

:49:17. > :49:20.changing the voting is. But then he became subject of a

:49:20. > :49:24.media frenzy after his ex-wife went to the papers. She claimed that a

:49:24. > :49:32.decade before, her husband was the one who had been speeding and he

:49:32. > :49:35.forced her to take the points to avoid a driving ban. Chris Huhne

:49:35. > :49:40.denied it. These allegations are incorrect. They've been made before

:49:40. > :49:45.and they've been shown to be untrue. That's not how it looked to the

:49:45. > :49:51.Crown Prosecution Service. And we have concluded that there is

:49:51. > :49:55.sufficient evidence to bring criminal charges against both Mr

:49:55. > :50:00.Huhne and Ms Pryce for perverting the course of justice. It prompted

:50:00. > :50:04.Chris Huhne's resignation from the Cabinet and yet another denial.

:50:04. > :50:08.innocent of these charges and I intend to fight this in the courts

:50:08. > :50:13.and I'm confident that a jury will agree. Hewn tried to have the case

:50:13. > :50:16.thrown out of court, claiming he couldn't be guaranteed a fair trial.

:50:16. > :50:21.Earlier this month just as that trial was about to begin at

:50:21. > :50:28.Southwark Crown Court a dramatic twist. I've pleaded guilty today. I

:50:28. > :50:32.am unable to say more while there is an outstanding trial. But having

:50:32. > :50:37.taking responsibility for something which happened ten years ago, the

:50:37. > :50:41.only proper course of action for me is now to resign my Eastleigh seat

:50:41. > :50:45.in Parliament, which I will do very shortly. This is obviously an

:50:45. > :50:49.extremely serious matter and it is essential that the legal process is

:50:50. > :50:55.now allowed to run its course. I'm shocked and saddened by what's

:50:55. > :51:03.happened. But I believe that Chris Huhne has taken the right decision

:51:03. > :51:09.in resigning as an MP. And so the race for Eastleigh was on. The

:51:09. > :51:15.place was swamped by Ministers, MPs, activists and party leaders for a

:51:15. > :51:21.short, sharp by-election. At one end of the constituency, the yachts

:51:21. > :51:24.of the river Hamble. At the other an old railway town. At the last

:51:24. > :51:29.election 3,000 votes separated the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.

:51:29. > :51:32.On a national level, it was a test of how the two parties in the

:51:33. > :51:38.coalition would fare in battle against each other but much of the

:51:38. > :51:45.campaign was very local. About planning applications and gravel

:51:45. > :51:52.pits. Until a few days ago when the Lib Dems became engulfed in another

:51:53. > :51:57.scandal. Did your leader know? liked our green credentials...

:51:57. > :52:01.Chris Rennard was accused of sexual harassment, which he has denied.

:52:01. > :52:05.The party was accused of failing to properly investigate.

:52:05. > :52:15.In the meantime the trial of Chris Huhne's ex-wife continues, as he

:52:15. > :52:26.

:52:26. > :52:31.waits to be sentenced and we await Welcome to viewers at the BBC News

:52:31. > :52:34.Channel. You are watching the BBC Eastleigh By Election Special.

:52:34. > :52:40.People went to the polls today to pick a successor to Chris Huhne,

:52:40. > :52:46.who resigned. We are expecting the result after 1:30am, providing

:52:46. > :52:56.there are no recounts. With us for the long march into the wee small

:52:56. > :52:57.

:52:57. > :53:05.hours, we have a panel of some of Britain's best politicians. We have

:53:06. > :53:14.the strongest coffee to keep their eyes open. It will end bitterly for

:53:14. > :53:20.somebody tonight. We have Simon Hughes, Chuka Umanna and Paul

:53:20. > :53:26.Nuttall, the deputy leader of UKIP. Welcome. Who is going to win? Grant

:53:26. > :53:36.Shapps? We will have to wait to see after the votes are counted.

:53:36. > :53:44.who will win? The votes are now being counted. The sources are

:53:44. > :53:47.pretty unanimous. Let me give you a prediction on another basis. We

:53:47. > :53:53.know that in by-elections throughout Times, since the Second

:53:53. > :54:01.World War, they have been 485 of them. Out of those, gains have only

:54:01. > :54:07.been made by the main side on four occasions. Preparing the ground for

:54:07. > :54:15.a defeat? Just looking at the statistics. We know Labour is not

:54:15. > :54:20.going to win. Who is? I don't know! I have absolutely no idea. We put

:54:20. > :54:24.in a really serious effort into this by-election because I think we

:54:24. > :54:32.are trying to demonstrate, and I think we have, that we are serious

:54:32. > :54:37.about winning back support in all parts of the country. If we were on

:54:37. > :54:47.course to win this, we would have a majority of 362 if there was a

:54:47. > :54:53.

:54:53. > :55:01.Do you share your confidence of your party colleagues in Eastleigh?

:55:01. > :55:10.I was just down there this evening. I just came back. I was canvassing

:55:10. > :55:17.houses in the least obvious Liberal Democrat part. The real unknown

:55:17. > :55:22.there seems to be who is second? We still think there we can win it.

:55:22. > :55:28.There has been a huge UKIP edge over the past week. Eastleigh is

:55:28. > :55:32.the first by-election where we got 1.4%. We only finished 100 votes

:55:32. > :55:37.ahead of the Monster Raving Loony Party. UKIP has come on in a

:55:37. > :55:45.massive wave. I think that that will be in the need it too late 20%

:55:45. > :55:48.so. I don't think it matters whether it is north or south, Labor

:55:49. > :55:53.or conservative, UKIP can take a threat across the board.

:55:54. > :55:58.counting is going on as we speak. The counting used to take place in

:55:58. > :56:05.town halls. That does not seem to happen any more. This account is

:56:05. > :56:10.taking place in a leisure centre. Bring us up to date on what is

:56:10. > :56:15.happening! We are here in a cavernous a

:56:15. > :56:20.leisure centre. The verification process has finished. They are

:56:20. > :56:25.beginning to count the ballot. Turnout has been 52%. Turnout is

:56:25. > :56:30.high for a by-election but for the general election, it was 69%. It

:56:30. > :56:36.will be interesting to see who the level of turnout will benefit. The

:56:36. > :56:39.turnout is of an increasingly confident Liberal Democrat. They

:56:39. > :56:44.think that they have held the seat but did not think it will be as

:56:44. > :56:51.large a share as it was in 2010. There will be delighted with that

:56:51. > :56:55.because of the circumstances of Chris Huhne's departure. The Lord

:56:55. > :56:59.Rennard allegations. They have put everything into this. Hundreds and

:56:59. > :57:03.hundreds of campaign volunteers at their headquarters. Nick Clegg came

:57:03. > :57:07.here five times during a campaign that lasted just three weeks. It

:57:07. > :57:13.looks as though it has paid off tonight. He will be pleased and

:57:13. > :57:18.relieved. The other story emerging tonight is more come second. Will

:57:18. > :57:22.it be UKIP or the Conservatives? This used to be Tory territory.

:57:22. > :57:32.UKIP have been surging in the last few days of the campaign. There was

:57:32. > :57:35.talk of UKIP winning. Even in New Kid circles they are playing down

:57:35. > :57:41.the likelihood of that. They may eclipse the Conservatives and come

:57:41. > :57:44.in second and that would be a virtual victory for them. It was

:57:44. > :57:48.characterised that led by UKIP personnel. We expect to see Nigel

:57:48. > :57:58.Farage parading if they come second as if he has won. But then presents

:57:58. > :58:01.David Cameron with a huge headache. We had a speech from him on Europe.

:58:02. > :58:05.The first signs of the ballot box, the first Test of that off on

:58:05. > :58:09.Europe here in Eastleigh and it looks as though the Conservatives

:58:09. > :58:15.made slip behind UKIP and come in third. It is early days but there

:58:15. > :58:22.is talk of you keep coming -- UKIP coming second and the Tories coming

:58:22. > :58:25.third. Is it true to say that there is a

:58:25. > :58:35.sense of that the Lib Dems are concerned with UKIP but all three

:58:35. > :58:40.votes are close two aisles looking close by for first place and also

:58:40. > :58:47.close for second and third place. They got 46% of the vote in 2010.

:58:47. > :58:51.The Tories came second in 39. They will be pleased if they can get 40%

:58:51. > :58:59.tonight. They think that they have won by a few hundred votes but it

:58:59. > :59:03.could be closer on second and third. It has come almost become a two-

:59:03. > :59:06.thirds horse race. UKIP have been surging in recent days and they

:59:06. > :59:15.have become a real legitimate contender in this competition,

:59:15. > :59:19.continuing a trend of their performance in recent by-elections.

:59:19. > :59:23.It looks like they will be beating their previous performance where

:59:23. > :59:28.they came in second. It is going to be tight and there is the potential

:59:28. > :59:33.for recounts as well. We have the coffee on so there will

:59:33. > :59:38.stay with you even if there is a recount. One final thing for the

:59:38. > :59:41.moment - I think I'm going to be talking to a lot in the minutes

:59:42. > :59:47.ahead - are you hearings that the postal votes may have played a

:59:47. > :59:51.crucial role in this by-election? There were a lot of them and the

:59:51. > :59:58.majority of the postal votes went to the Liberal Democrats. If they

:59:58. > :00:03.have won, if I say, that maybe what has won it?

:00:03. > :00:08.There are Seve 9,000 people on the electoral roll here so that is the

:00:08. > :00:14.kind of a mountain that we are initially playing with. 14,000 of

:00:14. > :00:18.postal votes were issued. I was told that when they came back,

:00:18. > :00:22.there were three relatively equal piles for the Liberal Democrats,

:00:22. > :00:26.Conservatives, and UKIP. The Lib Democrats feel that they have got

:00:26. > :00:29.around 40% of those words and hope that it will be replicated when the

:00:29. > :00:33.counting is finished for the rest of the balance. They feel confident

:00:33. > :00:39.that having seen the postal votes that will prove to them about all

:00:39. > :00:42.the evidence that there for normal ground operation has paid off. They

:00:42. > :00:46.had managed to get out the vote in terms of postal votes and those who

:00:46. > :00:49.have gone to the polls physically today.

:00:50. > :00:54.We will be back to talk to you soon. If you're worried about majorities

:00:54. > :00:59.and swings and roundabouts and who is up and who is down, then do not

:00:59. > :01:04.panic. In Our immaculate newsroom, we have a man who has lived and

:01:04. > :01:09.breathed every by-election since 1932. I was there with him at the

:01:09. > :01:16.time. John, very good to see you. It is good to have your nights like

:01:16. > :01:20.this. Tell us about your feelings of the Eastleigh constituency and

:01:20. > :01:26.what would result in somebody winning. What were the factors be

:01:26. > :01:30.to get a result of victory? If the Liberal Democrats have managed to

:01:30. > :01:35.win this seat and we must be mindful that that is still an if,

:01:36. > :01:39.then almost undoubtedly they will have to thank the local workers.

:01:39. > :01:48.This is a constituency where they hold every single local government

:01:48. > :01:53.seat. In the election last year and in 2011 where much of the country,

:01:53. > :02:03.they had haemorrhaging votes for badly. In Eastleigh, they have held

:02:03. > :02:07.

:02:07. > :02:13.up. They want to try and find a constituency where they up -- they

:02:13. > :02:20.are well positioned.... If the Liberal Democrats have won,

:02:20. > :02:24.how well have they won? We have heard of the Liberal Democrats

:02:24. > :02:29.gaining 40%. If they had managed to get 40%, that would be a good

:02:29. > :02:32.result. That would be only seven points down on the general election

:02:32. > :02:36.result. That will be much better than the party's current opinion-

:02:36. > :02:40.poll rating. The opinion polls have suggested that the party may scrape

:02:40. > :02:44.home with their more than a round one third of the vote. That is

:02:44. > :02:49.about what to expect, given the current standing in opinion polls.

:02:49. > :02:52.Given the fact that the party has done that well in by-elections. It

:02:52. > :02:57.will not demonstrate that they can necessarily hang on strong main

:02:57. > :03:01.strongholds than elsewhere. They will have so hung on simply because

:03:01. > :03:04.the Tory vote is as bad as the Liberal Democrat vote. Is it fair

:03:04. > :03:08.to say that if the Conservatives cannot win Eastleigh and they

:03:08. > :03:12.cannot get an overall majority in the House of Commons? If they

:03:12. > :03:15.cannot win in Eastleigh, then it is unlikely that they can get a

:03:15. > :03:19.majority and less the same time there were some haemorrhaging of

:03:19. > :03:22.the Labor vote and the Conservatives can pick those up. We

:03:23. > :03:27.also must bear in mind that the converse is not true. If the

:03:27. > :03:30.Conservatives were to win Eastleigh tonight, we should not assume that

:03:30. > :03:32.would necessarily mean that the Conservatives would be a will to

:03:33. > :03:36.win an election because at the end of the day although the

:03:36. > :03:41.Conservatives do want to pick up a half dozen or so of the seats that

:03:41. > :03:44.the Lib Dems car may hold, we must remember that at the end of the day

:03:44. > :03:48.it is the party that stands the most between the Conservatives and

:03:48. > :03:52.the majority which is the Labour Party and at the end of the day it

:03:52. > :03:58.is how well they can do in marginal Labour seats there is crucial to

:03:58. > :04:01.their chance of gaining a majority. Those seats are more numerous than

:04:01. > :04:05.seats where the Conservatives may pick them up from it Liberal

:04:05. > :04:10.Democrats. We have a mid-term by- election. We have to unpopular

:04:10. > :04:14.coalition parties according to the polls at the moment. Isn't this the

:04:14. > :04:18.kind of by-election that you would expect oppositions to win and

:04:18. > :04:22.should we not expect the Labour opposition to be doing better than

:04:22. > :04:24.they seem to be doing? We would expect the Labour Party to be do

:04:24. > :04:28.better than they are doing but I'm not sure we should necessarily

:04:28. > :04:33.expect them to be winning. Given that Eastleigh is a constituency

:04:33. > :04:39.where for the most part since the 1980s also it is a seat where they

:04:40. > :04:47.have been getting around one-fifth of the vote. They might be hoping

:04:47. > :04:51.to get back to that level. The warning East Leigh maybe there that

:04:51. > :04:57.if, as we think has happened, that if the Eddie government protest

:04:57. > :05:00.vote or the protest vote in general has just gone to UKIP that it is a

:05:00. > :05:05.reminder that although there are plenty of voters who are unhappy

:05:05. > :05:09.about the collision, there are still also not sufficient voters

:05:09. > :05:14.who were convinced that the Labour Party can do better. That is

:05:14. > :05:23.especially true when it comes to the handling of the economy. At the

:05:23. > :05:28.voters' discontent. It is the discontent that is being expressed

:05:28. > :05:32.in terms of immigration and they are tapping very deeply into that

:05:32. > :05:36.in this by-election and it is a reminder that that message that we

:05:36. > :05:40.are happy about austerity and immigrants allegedly taking jobs

:05:40. > :05:46.away from British people. That message in a place like Eastleigh

:05:46. > :05:49.is probably more resonant then Ed Miliband's call that he will try

:05:49. > :05:54.and help low-income earners and therefore help the economy to grow

:05:54. > :05:57.out of its current state. The Labour Party still has a lot of

:05:57. > :06:01.work to do to seal the deal with the electorate and make them feel

:06:02. > :06:07.that they want to see the Labour Party run the country once again.

:06:07. > :06:12.Thank you for that. We will come back to you for redder analysis.

:06:12. > :06:15.If we look at the resort from the last general election, this is the

:06:15. > :06:19.bench poll where Chris Huhne increased majority. The Liberal

:06:19. > :06:26.Democrats topped the poll with almost 25,000 votes. The

:06:26. > :06:31.Conservatives had the same can then as now, Maria Hutchings. There were

:06:31. > :06:36.in second place. Labour will well down in third. UKIP were much

:06:36. > :06:43.further behind in that election, in 4th. The card majority is a pretty

:06:43. > :06:53.healthy majority with almost 4,000 votes. The Conservatives need a

:06:53. > :07:03.swing of more than 3.6%. Here are the results from 2010 as a

:07:03. > :07:03.

:07:03. > :07:06.percentage. The Liberal Democrats on top with 46.5 % of the vote. You

:07:06. > :07:12.should have been a striking distance for this seat, he went

:07:13. > :07:15.that far behind? Often at by- elections, there is a protest vote.

:07:15. > :07:22.We're exactly in the middle of Parliament and things are clearly

:07:22. > :07:26.very difficult. People are looking to have their voice heard. In this

:07:26. > :07:29.case, the protest party has not turned out to be the party of

:07:29. > :07:35.opposition which should be concerning. You would expect them

:07:35. > :07:42.to be right up there. Last time there was a by-election in the same

:07:42. > :07:52.seat, they got 27% of the vote and came second. He doesn't look like a

:07:52. > :07:58.

:07:58. > :08:03.We are there to fight for every vote. It would quite remarkable for

:08:03. > :08:08.the Lib Dems are a time when their poles are so low. That is a fair

:08:08. > :08:12.comment. National poll ratings around 10%. Added thing we can

:08:12. > :08:17.ignore the fact that there are difficult circumstances for us as a

:08:17. > :08:23.party in Eastleigh -- Eastleigh and generally. The past few days have

:08:23. > :08:28.not been the easiest France as a party. If we held it, nobody knows

:08:28. > :08:31.for certain, but we hope we may be able to. I think that if we hold it

:08:31. > :08:37.then it says two things. I think it shows that where we have very good

:08:37. > :08:41.organisation and a very protracted effort, could councils and a well-

:08:41. > :08:44.run councils and that is worth it. The fortresses we have which of the

:08:45. > :08:51.seats that we hold around country normally have that and that is

:08:51. > :08:57.helpful. Having seats taken away from us will be a problem. Secondly,

:08:57. > :09:06.it means that we are getting enough of a message was clear and

:09:06. > :09:09.nationally across and when it comes to voters deciding. We have a

:09:09. > :09:13.national message and that is that we're trying to help the people on

:09:13. > :09:19.the lowest income by taking them out of tax. On the doorstep, had

:09:19. > :09:24.quite a number of people understand the message and hearing that

:09:24. > :09:34.message. Adding to that, a good candidate with local credentials

:09:34. > :09:40.and to is clearly the most authentically candidate. -- wink of

:09:40. > :09:45.all the candidates. Are you surprised by the way the by-

:09:45. > :09:55.election came about with the MP having to resign and possibly

:09:55. > :10:00.

:10:00. > :10:08.I am surprised. People Move On quite quickly. The first Eastleigh

:10:08. > :10:16.by-election was after an unhappy event. The death of an MP who won

:10:16. > :10:20.the majority. Yes. It was a tragic death. Hardly unexplained. The by-

:10:20. > :10:24.election, you would think sometimes, reflect what happens before. But

:10:24. > :10:34.directors quickly say, we understand the question. The

:10:34. > :10:35.

:10:35. > :10:41.question is, who do you want to be the MP? -- the voters quickly say.

:10:41. > :10:46.It will not change a government but it will send a message. The voters

:10:46. > :10:53.are clever enough to realise that all of the National staff, stand-

:10:53. > :10:59.alone intrigue, rumours or speculation up, is not as relevant.

:10:59. > :11:04.I agree with a lot of that. This was a locally fought election. One

:11:04. > :11:11.of the pieces of Pauling said that around 57% of people believe it was

:11:11. > :11:15.on the local issues they would decide. -- polling. Not what people

:11:15. > :11:20.think about in a general election. A straight choice about who you

:11:20. > :11:25.want between two people. It's a different question. One point I

:11:25. > :11:32.disagree with his at the by- election in the last Parliament, it

:11:32. > :11:35.was an indicator with an unpopular prime minister, the 10p tax, the

:11:35. > :11:45.Conservatives winning the seat, it was an indication of what was a

:11:45. > :11:49.coming next. You might say they they can win in the south. The

:11:49. > :11:54.truth is, if they are not making an injured in the south, do you know

:11:54. > :12:00.in the south-east there are 84 constituencies? They are not

:12:00. > :12:05.breaking through at the by-election. Why did you put out a leaflet in

:12:05. > :12:15.UKIP colours? One of the small features of this by-election is

:12:15. > :12:15.

:12:15. > :12:23.that and -- a UKIP MEP defected to us during the by-election. You may

:12:23. > :12:31.not be aware of it. These are your colours? This is your candidate!

:12:31. > :12:41.do not believe any party should own a colour. We publish in red

:12:41. > :12:46.sometimes! We had a UKIP MEP defect. Doing this by election. Her message

:12:46. > :12:51.was simple. She said UKIP can be a process. If you want to make

:12:51. > :12:55.progress on Europe, you have to elect a party to Westminster who is

:12:55. > :13:05.prepared to have an impact referendum, something David Cameron

:13:05. > :13:08.

:13:08. > :13:18.has promised. It was a serious point to grab people's attention.

:13:18. > :13:22.The copy is great flattery. They were hiding this leaflet. I have

:13:22. > :13:26.spoken to your former MEP and she is embarrassed to be in a party

:13:26. > :13:31.which is happy to be a protest party. But the reason she joined

:13:31. > :13:35.the Conservatives is she wants to belong to a party that is serious

:13:35. > :13:44.about changing Britain's relationship. You and I know that

:13:44. > :13:52.is not true. Britain should have a different relationship with Europe.

:13:52. > :14:02.A deselection was on the card soon and that is why she jumped ship.

:14:02. > :14:02.

:14:02. > :14:07.Before we speak to another MP, let us go to Tim Farron. The early

:14:07. > :14:14.indications, being briefed off the red coat, was that it was looking

:14:14. > :14:24.good for you. I understand it may not be looking quite as good now? -

:14:24. > :14:28.- being briefed earlier. I have no idea what you are on about! We have

:14:28. > :14:33.not finished counting and it will be very tight three ways, it looks

:14:33. > :14:40.like. The last time the Tories formed a majority, it was a small

:14:40. > :14:46.majority of 20, and they won with a majority of 18,000. The Tories will

:14:46. > :14:51.have to win this by a little bit if David Cameron wants to be re-

:14:51. > :14:57.elected. Otherwise, it will change the narrative of this Parliament.

:14:57. > :15:03.It would be a boost for us Natalie across all of the constituencies. -

:15:03. > :15:07.- nationally. Has the fact you have -- have to fight this by-election

:15:07. > :15:14.amid a growing crisis of confidence in the Lib Dem leadership caused to

:15:14. > :15:19.problems? You would not choose to fight a by-election caused by the

:15:19. > :15:24.circumstances that it was or indeed with the press headlines we have

:15:24. > :15:29.had over the past few days. If the Lib Dems do win this, against the

:15:29. > :15:34.backdrop of all that, we would have done well. It's a staggering result

:15:34. > :15:39.for us to win the seat anyway. To win it against all that would be a

:15:39. > :15:47.turning point. Most people who have written us off would have egg all

:15:47. > :15:51.over their faces. The other 56 held Liberal Democrat seats, their

:15:51. > :15:56.position would be stronger. If we were to do well against the Tories

:15:57. > :16:01.tonight, we would be defending our base very well, we have -- we will

:16:01. > :16:08.also be a strong seat to start gaining against the Conservatives.

:16:08. > :16:11.This completely changes this parliament if we should win. I have

:16:11. > :16:19.noticed you do not deny that there is a crisis of confidence in your

:16:19. > :16:23.party's leadership? We have had a tough week. You have seen the way

:16:23. > :16:28.in which the party has rallied to come too easily to help and work

:16:28. > :16:35.their socks off and get behind Nick Clegg. Without a single doubt, the

:16:35. > :16:39.party is united behind him. There's no crisis in that leadership at all.

:16:39. > :16:44.But they have been acres of print writing of the Liberal Democrats.

:16:44. > :16:50.Tonight, many people will be confounded should we win. Were

:16:50. > :16:56.they? Who has written you off? You have had a lot of criticism. Who

:16:56. > :17:00.has written you off in his early? For the last three years, we have

:17:00. > :17:05.had nothing but print writing us off. You can kind of understand

:17:05. > :17:10.that given the election results. There has been a steady improvement

:17:10. > :17:15.over the last 12 months. Our opinion poll ratings have improved.

:17:15. > :17:19.But this is where it matters. We have a 57 seats. We have to go out

:17:20. > :17:24.and make some other gains. If we win tonight, things have changed in

:17:24. > :17:29.our direction. Is there a possibility that Mr Clegg's story

:17:29. > :17:36.will change again on the Lord Rennard business? It has already

:17:36. > :17:40.changed twice. I don't think it has changed at all. There is a massive

:17:40. > :17:46.universal difference... He said he knew nothing about allegations and

:17:46. > :17:53.then he said, actually, ID but they were non-specific. That is a change.

:17:53. > :17:59.-- I did. Then he said that of course Chris Wedge night resigned

:17:59. > :18:03.for health reasons. Now he is saying that the accusations against

:18:03. > :18:08.him did play a part in the resignation. -- Lord Rennard. That

:18:08. > :18:12.is twice it has changed. What could the third change the? I do not

:18:12. > :18:22.think any of those things are mutually exclusive. There were some

:18:22. > :18:25.

:18:25. > :18:35.rumours. We are aware of that. But in your job, you know there are

:18:35. > :18:36.

:18:36. > :18:46.always rumours. But I did not employ him. Your party did. Do you

:18:46. > :18:47.

:18:47. > :18:51.not have a duty of care? There you make a strong point. As a party,

:18:51. > :18:56.these allegations if true, without a doubt we have let down people who

:18:57. > :19:02.have worked very hard for the party. As an organisation, we have to make

:19:02. > :19:08.sure we get this right. We owe it to wider society to practise the

:19:08. > :19:12.values we preach. OK. We relate to get back to monitor the count.

:19:12. > :19:19.Thank you for being with us. I hope you get a chance to speak to us

:19:19. > :19:23.again later. John Curtis now. In your memory,

:19:23. > :19:28.has there been by election that has been fought with the defending

:19:28. > :19:32.party in the middle of such a scandal? There have been many by-

:19:32. > :19:37.elections which have risen as a resources scandal. This is already

:19:37. > :19:45.the third by-election in this parliament, where the local MP

:19:45. > :19:50.resigned because of a scandal. We had Eric Illsley in Barnsley

:19:50. > :20:00.Central. Certainly in Barnsley, there's no evidence that Eric

:20:00. > :20:01.

:20:01. > :20:05.Illsley's fate cost the Liberal Party any votes. Of course we have

:20:05. > :20:11.also run into other famous occasions when by-elections have

:20:11. > :20:18.been caused by scandals. The obvious was the MP from Stratford.

:20:18. > :20:24.He had been lying to the House of Commons. The Conservative Party did

:20:24. > :20:28.struggle as a result of that, as did the Labour Party in Warsaw when

:20:28. > :20:35.the former party general disappeared off a beach in Florida.

:20:35. > :20:42.That party did worse than you would expect. Sometimes, scandal does

:20:42. > :20:48.cause a Pardeep a problem. But it does not always. -- party. This

:20:48. > :20:53.could be another occasion where it does not. The other thing, Lord

:20:53. > :20:57.Rennard's story, if we were talking about Nick Clegg as a Popular Party

:20:57. > :21:02.leader who everybody thought was a brilliant deputy prime minister and

:21:02. > :21:06.then all of a sudden we had this revelation that he had not handled

:21:06. > :21:12.and affair like this so well, that could have caused problems. But the

:21:12. > :21:17.truth is, if they were going to win easily, they will do so despite

:21:17. > :21:23.Nick Clegg's existing deep unpopularity, not because of it.

:21:23. > :21:31.That was undoubtedly one of the reasons why the national backdrop

:21:31. > :21:39.probably has not had much of an impact. This is already a party

:21:39. > :21:45.that has had problems. What is your view as to why the election

:21:45. > :21:50.campaign seems to have been marked by a growing surges of UKIP as the

:21:50. > :21:58.campaign has gone on? There is one little known fact about it, worth

:21:58. > :22:05.pointing out. We have spoken about how it's a strong Lib Dem area. But

:22:05. > :22:13.it is also a constituency where UKIP has an unusually good area of

:22:13. > :22:18.-- record. Even in the local elections in 2009. They managed to

:22:18. > :22:24.get 14% of the vote. By the standard of UKIP, even on that

:22:24. > :22:28.occasion, it was a particularly good result. This was a place where

:22:28. > :22:38.UKIP were already rather well positioned. But that does not

:22:38. > :22:39.

:22:39. > :22:44.explain this broader national backdrop. Presumably, the -- Grant

:22:44. > :22:48.Shapps is starting to acknowledge this. If the rise in UKIP was to do

:22:48. > :22:58.with Euro-scepticism among the public, they should be no disputing

:22:58. > :23:03.that notion, given David Cameron's speech. He promised a referendum.

:23:03. > :23:11.It has been made clear from the national opinion polls that it is

:23:11. > :23:14.now the case. There are two things going on. One is a fundamental

:23:14. > :23:18.difference between this parliament and previous parliaments. In

:23:18. > :23:22.previous parliaments, the Lib Dems were the party usually picking up

:23:22. > :23:26.the protest vote. They are no longer position to do that because

:23:26. > :23:36.they are in government. Therefore, any Conservatives looking for

:23:36. > :23:37.

:23:38. > :23:45.somewhere to pass the protest vote, UKIP are an obvious selection. UKIP

:23:45. > :23:50.are feeding into this feeling that this is an age of austerity. An age

:23:50. > :23:58.of falling living standards. To some degree, UKIP are successfully

:23:58. > :24:02.putting forward that we need to stem immigration, particularly

:24:02. > :24:05.above all. It needs to include immigration from within the EU. And

:24:05. > :24:13.given the only way of stemming immigration from within the EU is

:24:13. > :24:18.to leave the EU, this is to some extent a distinctive UKIP tune.

:24:18. > :24:24.That is also something. The truth is, we have had an announcement

:24:24. > :24:34.that immigration into the UK has been cut. But no government,

:24:34. > :24:42.

:24:42. > :24:47.whatever its position, can allege... If Grant Shapps, let me go to you.

:24:47. > :24:55.You had a speech from the Prime Minister saying you would have an

:24:55. > :25:05.in-out referendum. You have chosen a very Euro-sceptic Cabinet. One

:25:05. > :25:15.even wants to leave the EU? If these two things combined has still

:25:15. > :25:16.

:25:16. > :25:22.resulted in a resurgence of UKIP, it has got worked. -- not work.

:25:22. > :25:28.a by-election, people look for a protest vote. In this parliament,

:25:28. > :25:33.UKIP may have picked up results as a result. In a general election,

:25:33. > :25:39.people look for the party who can actually go into Downing Street,

:25:39. > :25:45.David Cameron or Ed Miliband. Today, they have said that net immigration

:25:45. > :25:54.has been cut by one-third. Whereby you can get the referendum on

:25:54. > :26:04.Europe because come that time when it's a serious general election, a

:26:04. > :26:17.

:26:17. > :26:22.If you're making a fundamental mistake of believing that political

:26:22. > :26:26.parties do things for short-term interest. If it were in self

:26:26. > :26:31.interest, the Conservative Party would never argue for Scotland to

:26:31. > :26:41.be in the Union. We need a renegotiated relationship with

:26:41. > :26:46.Europe. I do not think that is what people were thinking about today.

:26:46. > :26:51.This by-election is taking place in mid-term, when governments are

:26:51. > :27:01.unpopular. The economy is largely stagnating, living standards are

:27:01. > :27:06.continuing to fall. Both coalition parties are unpopular. This is an

:27:06. > :27:10.unpolished constituency. It is not Bournemouth or anything like that.

:27:10. > :27:16.You may not be in a position to win it, but you should be doing well,

:27:16. > :27:22.as the main opposition, and the highly Repository or a mainstream

:27:22. > :27:27.protest vote. We're not the main opposition in the seat. The main

:27:27. > :27:32.opposition in this seat is the Tories. There has been a lot of

:27:32. > :27:37.talk about 1992. The big question here is that you have a

:27:37. > :27:41.Conservative Party that has not won a general election since 1992.

:27:42. > :27:47.After tonight, will it look as though they are closer to winning a

:27:47. > :27:54.general election, or further? The situation is different. We have not

:27:54. > :27:56.been organised on the ground in Eastleigh for many decades. We are

:27:56. > :28:05.essentially building and organisational operation from

:28:05. > :28:09.scratch. We are delighted with what we have achieved. We have started

:28:09. > :28:13.from nowhere. You go to start from somewhere if you're going to build

:28:13. > :28:23.something to get support in these important regions of the country.

:28:23. > :28:24.

:28:24. > :28:30.This is not a target seat price. It is number 16 on the target list.

:28:30. > :28:35.Your leader Your leader great play of seen if you're the one nation party.

:28:35. > :28:39.A particular, you need to win seats out of your heartland. In a way,

:28:39. > :28:46.the easy thing in this election would be to sit back and say it is

:28:46. > :28:54.not on the target list of 106 seats we want to win. We could step back

:28:54. > :28:59.and leave it to the others. The very fact that we have got an

:28:59. > :29:07.operation, shows that we are serious about winning support in

:29:07. > :29:14.areas like Eastleigh. One of the important things is, despite the

:29:14. > :29:17.fact it looks as though will not finish at the top, we have found

:29:17. > :29:23.that the messages we have been giving, the things that people have

:29:23. > :29:29.been telling us, tells us that the message has been resonating. That

:29:29. > :29:37.is a good starting point. How can you be resonating if you are going

:29:37. > :29:43.from third to 4th? Where is the resonance? We will see. What you

:29:43. > :29:48.were accepted to come forth that you are not resonating? We have

:29:48. > :29:56.made 20,000 contacts. We have talks to that of people. Where the issues

:29:56. > :30:02.they have been raising? The cost of living, the economy, there are over

:30:02. > :30:08.4,000 families suffering from what the government are doing. I will

:30:08. > :30:18.answer that we are going to win this contest, but we have put down

:30:18. > :30:26.decent roots. Mrs an account where the Liberal Democrats have got 41

:30:26. > :30:36.of the 42 seats. IOS This is a council. We could definitely try to

:30:36. > :30:36.

:30:36. > :30:43.win Labour councils there. The Lib Dems have 40 of the seeds. They

:30:43. > :30:51.have made gains. Elsewhere, you're thinking is faulty. Back in 1994,

:30:51. > :30:58.when the last Labour government was on its way out, his daughter nearly

:30:58. > :31:08.28% here. He came second. There has got to be a concern that as the

:31:08. > :31:08.

:31:08. > :31:15.main party of opposition, you are not picking up the opposition votes.

:31:15. > :31:25.There are 50,000 people in the constituency who were about to

:31:25. > :31:31.

:31:31. > :31:35.benefit from their tax being April cut. It is all very good at giving

:31:35. > :31:44.with one hand, but when you take from another it does not mean so

:31:44. > :31:50.much. It is worth remembering that the Tories lose -- won the seat

:31:50. > :32:00.with a 17,000 majority. There were some important boundary changes in

:32:00. > :32:06.

:32:06. > :32:13.1994. It affected John Denham's seed. Your party is expecting a

:32:13. > :32:23.result in this by-election. You cannot be denying that fact.

:32:23. > :32:26.

:32:26. > :32:34.want to win every vote in every contest. What I can tell you... I

:32:34. > :32:39.have not cut the number with it. doesn't even feature on our list.

:32:39. > :32:45.It is a seat we want to win. It is a seat that will be fighting very

:32:45. > :32:55.hard for. We have put everything into the sea. If we have not went,

:32:55. > :32:56.

:32:56. > :33:04.I am sorry. By-elections are hardly a predictor. Previously there were

:33:04. > :33:10.seen as huge indicators of the next off why are you so excited about

:33:10. > :33:15.this by-election? It did win the seat in 2010. If he cannot win it

:33:15. > :33:22.in this by-election given the circumstances, you would not bet

:33:22. > :33:28.that you were going to win it in 2015, Would you? In by-elections,

:33:28. > :33:38.they have been 480 by-elections since the war. An incumbent party

:33:38. > :33:39.

:33:39. > :33:45.has only gained four. This could not have been a more difficult

:33:45. > :33:54.defence for us. It Luntley gave the Tories the best opportunity they

:33:55. > :34:02.have ever had. -- bluntly the local issue factor will not be the

:34:02. > :34:08.primary driver come the general election. I want to fight for every

:34:09. > :34:18.by-election. The polling suggests that 60% of voters would prefer to

:34:19. > :34:20.

:34:20. > :34:28.see David Cameron as prime minister. How is the opposition coming

:34:28. > :34:34.fourth? Why did you make so much of

:34:34. > :34:38.immigration in a seat that has almost no immigrants? Immigration

:34:38. > :34:43.is obviously a serious issue because y. The

:34:43. > :34:51.point we're trying to make in this by-election was that on 1st January

:34:51. > :34:56.next year, all restrictions fall as a result of the EU membership. We

:34:56. > :35:00.have 20% youth unemployment. We cannot afford for more be able to

:35:00. > :35:06.come into the country and see more jobs go to people who were not

:35:06. > :35:14.resident. These are issues that should be spoken about. Nothing

:35:14. > :35:24.should be off-limits. We found that it resonated. Eastleigh is 90%

:35:24. > :35:26.

:35:26. > :35:30.white. It is 96% people who have English as a first language. To

:35:30. > :35:35.make immigration such a big issue in a by-election for this

:35:35. > :35:39.constituency would suggest scaremongering. Immigration is

:35:39. > :35:45.obviously a concern on doorsteps. It is the people who were living

:35:45. > :35:55.there bringing the issue up. Sometimes, people are voting on

:35:55. > :36:03.

:36:03. > :36:07.national issues. The UK upsurge -- you tip -- UKIP surge. We are

:36:07. > :36:17.taking votes from all the parties. Are you taking them because of

:36:17. > :36:24.

:36:24. > :36:31.immigration? I think that was one point. We have paid to export.

:36:31. > :36:37.automotive sector is doing well compared to other sectors. The

:36:37. > :36:43.reason it is having difficulties is because the eurozone is slowing.

:36:43. > :36:48.That demonstrates how important the membership to the EU is. It is the

:36:48. > :36:56.European Investment Bank who gave their loan to the company to export

:36:56. > :37:06.the jobs. I have talked to people about jobs and immigration a lot.

:37:06. > :37:12.The reality is that unemployment is low here. Most of the loss of

:37:12. > :37:22.business is to do with engineering, ships, the airport.

:37:22. > :37:25.

:37:25. > :37:35.Here is a tough question. Who is milkman. Benny Hill. You should

:37:35. > :37:37.

:37:37. > :37:47.have known that. Your leader chose his song. We had it at a conference

:37:47. > :37:54.

:37:54. > :38:04.one year. I would ask you another one. We will take a look of the

:38:04. > :38:12.

:38:12. > :38:18.This railway stand was once the home of a much-loved comedian. When

:38:18. > :38:24.Benny Hill worked at the dairy it provided inspiration for a 70s hit.

:38:24. > :38:29.Much has changed since the days of the fastest milkman in the west.

:38:30. > :38:35.The railway works was once a busy Repair Centre. Today, the airport

:38:35. > :38:45.is the biggest local employer. On the surrounding countryside, a new

:38:45. > :38:46.

:38:46. > :38:55.suburban housing estate. The town's industrial side has diminished.

:38:55. > :39:05.This bakery closed nearly ten years ago. Another big local employer is

:39:05. > :39:08.

:39:08. > :39:17.switching production to Turkey. Nearby is the home of Hampshire

:39:17. > :39:25.cricket. Since this constituency was created in 1955, Eastleigh has

:39:25. > :39:32.only had four MPs. David Price held at 437 years. Then the Lib Dems won

:39:32. > :39:38.it has a by-election in 1994. It became a three-way marginal. Voters

:39:38. > :39:45.were visited by Gordon Brown on the campaign trail on the last days of

:39:45. > :39:52.the Major government. It develops into way Lib Dem stronghold. Today,

:39:52. > :39:57.the party holds 36 of the local council seats. In the election for

:39:57. > :40:07.Police Commissioner, a Lib Dem tops the polls. Now the by-election

:40:07. > :40:12.

:40:12. > :40:15.stage is set with a colourful new Tonight as we wait for the result,

:40:15. > :40:22.the Count is still going on. It looks like it will be quite a while

:40:22. > :40:31.yet. 52% turnout, we are told. In the great scheme of things, it is

:40:31. > :40:37.not great. But it is not bad either. If people are turning to UKIP, and

:40:37. > :40:47.there does seem to have been a surge, why did they turn to them

:40:47. > :40:48.

:40:48. > :40:52.and not you? It was a nun of the above for it. They did not want a

:40:52. > :40:58.UKIP government. But if they have performed well, we have to respect

:40:59. > :41:03.the result. We have to listen to what they have been saying. I do

:41:03. > :41:10.not think, for all the talk of Europe, in my experience going

:41:10. > :41:15.around the country, a lot of people who have been voting for UKIP, it

:41:15. > :41:18.is for a variety of reasons. A disenchantment with the political

:41:18. > :41:25.system and the main political parties. There is no getting away

:41:25. > :41:33.from that. Can I interrupt to for a second. Michael Thornton has

:41:33. > :41:37.arrived. He is surrounded by the diamonds of the Democrat posters.

:41:37. > :41:45.He began this might been told by his own people that it looks as if

:41:45. > :41:49.he had won. As we came on air, there was the situation of people

:41:49. > :41:55.thinking they had won. A show of support for Michael Thornton. A

:41:55. > :42:05.local man. Made a lot about local issues. Did not want to talk about

:42:05. > :42:07.

:42:07. > :42:12.national issues. We will see if we can get a hold of him. You have to

:42:12. > :42:16.respect the result. You have to respect the result. I am not just

:42:16. > :42:21.going to dismiss it. There are a range of reasons as to why people

:42:21. > :42:26.are voting for UKIP. The Labour Party is not a protest party. We

:42:26. > :42:32.are a serious party of government. You have to look at the concerns

:42:32. > :42:42.raised by voters. Europe is one of them. But you have a range of

:42:42. > :42:48.

:42:48. > :42:53.issues about disenchantment. You migration plays a role. I think

:42:53. > :43:03.part of our problem in the past is that we have been disparaged talk

:43:03. > :43:08.of migration. But it is a lightning rod for or other issues. It is

:43:08. > :43:16.quite a serious problem. So far in this Parliament to have won once.

:43:16. > :43:23.He won a seat for the Tories. You lost a safe Labour seat. Absolutely

:43:23. > :43:28.wiped away. Today, one of the people I can best said that she had

:43:28. > :43:36.suppor supporter. But she voted for the

:43:36. > :43:44.peace candidate. There is a peace candidate. And be. I am making is

:43:44. > :43:52.that if the Labour Party was a credible alternative government,

:43:52. > :44:00.surely a Labour voter would have voted Labour. I can tell you plenty

:44:00. > :44:08.of stories of Liberal Democrat voters. Herr man on the spot is

:44:08. > :44:14.Robin. There have been some developments? Mike Thornton has a

:44:14. > :44:22.huge smile on his face. He has come into the hall, surrounded by

:44:22. > :44:26.supporters. That is a prix victory, victory rally. They are

:44:26. > :44:30.increasingly confident they have held on to this seat of. They

:44:30. > :44:39.believe that the majority could even be up and above 2000. Chris

:44:39. > :44:43.Huhne back in the 2010 election got a majority of almost 4,000. Turnout

:44:43. > :44:51.of 52%. Increasingly confident. Michael Thornton believes he is on

:44:51. > :44:55.the brink of moving into local cortex. -- politics. The Liberal

:44:55. > :45:01.Democrats dominate the council. He feels he is on his way to

:45:01. > :45:06.Westminster as the men to succeed Chris Huhne. We will also see the

:45:06. > :45:13.arrival of Diane James, the UKIP candidate. That will be the other

:45:13. > :45:23.story, how well they do. There is increasing suspicion or expectation

:45:23. > :45:24.

:45:24. > :45:33.place. Diane James will be the next most interesting arrival when that

:45:33. > :45:43.wondering. Since the birds are still being counted, why do the

:45:43. > :45:51.Liberal Democrats think they have process. A lot of this is based on

:45:51. > :45:58.their own personal data. Crucially, the postal codes. 14,000 of those.

:45:58. > :46:07.A fairly sizable amount. Basically half of those voted. 14,000 postal

:46:07. > :46:13.votes. The Liberal Democrats have seen this comeback. They are at

:46:13. > :46:23.breaking extrapolations on that. For them, it is proof that their

:46:23. > :46:27.

:46:27. > :46:37.efforts have worked. They are also Do we have any indication of when

:46:37. > :46:37.

:46:37. > :46:41.we will get the result. No. We were told two o'clock. The reason why I

:46:41. > :46:48.am less optimistic about that is because it is looking like the

:46:48. > :46:53.battle for second and third could be close. Frankly, I do away there

:46:53. > :46:57.clearly is a case to go to the returning officer and ask for it

:46:57. > :47:07.every count. There are 40 candidates on the ballot paper. It

:47:07. > :47:09.

:47:09. > :47:14.is taking a lot of time to count. It is 121. We are on the same time

:47:14. > :47:24.zone so far. A UN must Eastleigh has declared independence. --

:47:24. > :47:24.

:47:24. > :47:31.unless. See if you can speed up the clock. To a clock is increasingly

:47:31. > :47:35.ambitious. Is there going to be a recount? What you are telling us is

:47:35. > :47:43.that if there is going to be a recount, it is your understanding

:47:43. > :47:47.it is likely to not be to decide the winner, but to decide who comes

:47:47. > :47:55.second or third. The Liberal Democrats are confident they have

:47:55. > :48:02.won this by 2000 or more. The very close race is to be the contested

:48:02. > :48:11.second and third. It is going to be a big issue for David Cameron. It

:48:12. > :48:16.could be a victory for its UK i P. - match UKIP. It could be very bad

:48:16. > :48:23.for David Cameron. The closeness of the competition for second and

:48:23. > :48:27.third is why we may get a recount. We had a weekend for the Bull

:48:27. > :48:35.Democrats to see if they could hold their deposit. Who knows? That

:48:35. > :48:45.Shearer coming from stage right is because Dan James has arrived. --

:48:45. > :48:50.

:48:50. > :48:57.Diane James. We can see the posters. Stick with it down there. John,

:48:57. > :49:02.tell me, is it uncommon to have a recount, not because there is an

:49:02. > :49:07.argument of doubt over who has come first, but because they want to

:49:07. > :49:10.make sure they came second and third? Very surprised if the

:49:10. > :49:16.returning officer will entertain very much in the way of a recount

:49:16. > :49:22.simply to decide who is second. Only two things should require a

:49:22. > :49:29.recount. If there is doubt about which candidate is first, the

:49:29. > :49:34.second is if there is a question mark as to whether a candidate has

:49:34. > :49:38.5% of the vote. We're not expecting any body to be close to 5%. We do

:49:38. > :49:43.not expect any of the minder candidates to get anything close to

:49:43. > :49:49.5%. The only reason we should have a recount his if it in the end we

:49:49. > :49:54.should discover the Liberal Democrat leader we're being told is

:49:54. > :50:00.there is not. Who comes second and third is irrelevant. Especially for

:50:00. > :50:05.the returning officer. The parties may be concerned, but I'm not sure

:50:05. > :50:11.the returning officer will be concerned. He will be sending the

:50:11. > :50:18.voting agents home after it is clear who won. We could be up until

:50:18. > :50:24.six o'clock then because of returns. -- recount. Looking at the

:50:24. > :50:29.circumstances under which this by- election took place, one caused by

:50:29. > :50:33.a Liberal Democrat MP who had to stand down in scandal, then an

:50:33. > :50:40.election fought in another little democrat scandal which resulted in

:50:40. > :50:45.a crisis of confidence in the leadership. If you cannot win in

:50:45. > :50:49.these circumstances, when can you? One thing we know about the ripple

:50:49. > :50:59.Democrats is that they are good at local policies. -- Liberal

:50:59. > :51:02.

:51:02. > :51:12.Democrats. There are 48 in the Eastleigh district. -- 40. The

:51:12. > :51:12.

:51:12. > :51:22.Eastleigh constituency is only part of Eastleigh. You have every

:51:22. > :51:26.

:51:26. > :51:30.council. Other only four seats. What is your.? 40 out of 40. On the

:51:30. > :51:37.ground, you have got a councillor in every word. They know the

:51:37. > :51:44.streets. They look to you as a local champion. The by-election is

:51:44. > :51:52.all about local issues. And that becomes the deciding factor. That

:51:52. > :51:57.may be what is happening. It is interesting listening to the talk

:51:57. > :52:07.about how they know where the results are. The other pit that no-

:52:07. > :52:14.one wants to talk about his people on the ground. People will have

:52:14. > :52:20.seen that the verification process. Politicians always know when they

:52:20. > :52:27.are there, roughly what is going on. You say the Liberal Democrats are

:52:27. > :52:36.organised in Eastleigh in the District Council. UKIP is not that

:52:36. > :52:43.will or can they are not that well organised. And yet, the search has

:52:43. > :52:48.gone to them. As that report pointed out, they are quite

:52:48. > :52:56.organised in that constituency. They had been standing people in

:52:56. > :53:02.seats for ten years. That kind of voting can make a difference.

:53:02. > :53:12.People look to a process that in by election. The Opposition will hope

:53:12. > :53:12.

:53:13. > :53:20.to be the beneficiaries. That what happened in the last by-election.

:53:20. > :53:28.Today, they are nowhere. People at a general election will look at

:53:28. > :53:31.this. Can I give you some use? Our

:53:31. > :53:38.colleagues in Radio 4 are on the ground in Eastleigh. They have been

:53:38. > :53:44.told by Lib Dem sources that they have won by 2,500 votes. That came

:53:44. > :53:52.in a few minutes ago when you were not looking. I will give you some

:53:52. > :54:02.answers when you ask me. Why we do not tell me first? You had not

:54:02. > :54:03.

:54:03. > :54:09.asked me. Does that say Nick Clegg's leadership. If he had lost

:54:09. > :54:18.tonight, would it be in doubt? The by-election had nothing to do with

:54:18. > :54:28.him. It had to do with Chris Huhne. That is unanswered. We're having

:54:28. > :54:29.

:54:29. > :54:36.inquiries. For me, we want to win the seat. That is important. I seem

:54:36. > :54:46.to remember we won several seats in the last Parliament. I think the

:54:46. > :54:47.

:54:47. > :54:51.interesting second point as far as us holding on, if these people were

:54:51. > :54:57.to be very close or had overtaken first of these guys, it is a

:54:57. > :55:07.serious crisis for the Tories. Labour have a big question to come

:55:07. > :55:15.

:55:15. > :55:20.Will not just doing it in the south. We're doing it in the north as well.

:55:20. > :55:26.Our place in the opinion polls has not moved. I thought we would have

:55:26. > :55:29.a slight dip for a few weeks and come back. We have not moved at all.

:55:29. > :55:37.You have not done it in the south, in a seat that has traditionally

:55:37. > :55:47.been a Tory seat. You him go on for years women by-election seat and it

:55:47. > :55:53.

:55:53. > :56:02.will still secured 80 years to get Come the general of action, we have

:56:02. > :56:12.a choice. There is what people will have to bear in mind. Do you think

:56:12. > :56:14.

:56:14. > :56:18.the result tonight will be an endorsement of the prime minister?

:56:18. > :56:28.Clearly, we are mid-term, with over two used to go into the next

:56:28. > :56:30.

:56:30. > :56:34.election. We have cut a quarter of the deficit. One million extra jobs

:56:34. > :56:43.created, five times as many jobs being created in the public sector.

:56:43. > :56:48.We have not finished the job, but when we have... When we are nearer

:56:48. > :56:55.to finishing the job in a couple of years' time, we would go to the

:56:55. > :57:00.polls in whatever position we're in. There will be a record to stand on.

:57:00. > :57:05.If you go to the country in 2015 say the commission has done a good

:57:05. > :57:12.job, as Simon Hughes says, it is a coalition. If people and easily

:57:12. > :57:22.have done a -- if people in Eastleigh thought to have done a

:57:22. > :57:25.

:57:25. > :57:35.good job... Why on earth would they vote for you? I was reading quotes

:57:35. > :57:36.

:57:36. > :57:41.about how important are easily was for re-election in 1994. Our

:57:41. > :57:48.argument is that we have achieved a loss in coalition. If we govern or

:57:48. > :57:52.Aaron we will do a lot more. We will sort out our relationship with

:57:52. > :57:55.the EU. We will do things are very important for British people.

:57:55. > :58:03.big speech at the beginning of the year was meant to sort out these

:58:03. > :58:08.problems and prevent the drift towards you kipper. I have been

:58:08. > :58:18.sitting here listening to this smoothing over what is a huge

:58:18. > :58:24.

:58:24. > :58:33.disaster for the Prime Minister. Are you really saying that the

:58:33. > :58:39.people who have been reported, you go through a long list of people,

:58:39. > :58:45.are you really saying that after this result, if you haven't won it

:58:45. > :58:53.or you have come behind, will babysitting happy, thinking that

:58:53. > :59:01.this is a resounding endorsement of the party? And let me just

:59:01. > :59:11.interrupted. The Labour candidate is now arriving. A smile on his

:59:11. > :59:21.face. It does look as though he has come forth. He may well have come

:59:21. > :59:21.

:59:21. > :59:31.forth. Eastleigh is not on a target list. It is a by-election. If we

:59:31. > :59:33.

:59:33. > :59:38.were going to win this seat... is a projection that does not mean

:59:38. > :59:47.anything. The fact is that opposition parties are begins

:59:47. > :59:56.Conservative governments. -- are up against will stop tonight you'll

:59:56. > :00:02.come forth. They have thrown everything at it. They have got 40

:00:02. > :00:07.out of 40 council laws. You just said you have shadow cabinet

:00:07. > :00:15.ministers. We have not had any particular presence or activity on

:00:15. > :00:25.the ground for decades. We are starting for a lower base. We have

:00:25. > :00:27.

:00:27. > :00:33.established an organisation from which we can branch out. We have

:00:33. > :00:38.made contact with 20,000 voters. You started from a low base and has

:00:38. > :00:48.got lower. He came third last time, they were coming lower. We do not

:00:48. > :00:50.

:00:50. > :00:59.know the results yet. We may well have come forth. But we do not know.

:00:59. > :01:09.Before you go on, I am being told that Nigel Farage is saying they

:01:09. > :01:09.

:01:09. > :01:19.have come second. I am giving you my sources. At least second, he is

:01:19. > :01:20.

:01:20. > :01:24.saying. I your sources telling you anything? I have had no-one pass me

:01:24. > :01:32.a note. That is the first I have heard. If we have come second,

:01:32. > :01:35.there is fantastic. The government we have got now 'Harry Potter' now

:01:35. > :01:41.that David Cameron has given a speech, Europe will be the centre

:01:41. > :01:51.point of the election. Nobody was going out today and voting on the

:01:51. > :01:51.

:01:51. > :01:59.issue of Europe. Largely speaking it was local issues. If you were

:01:59. > :02:05.right, doesn't make sense to vote for a party who has published a

:02:05. > :02:12.Bill which provides the referendum, or to vote for a party of protest

:02:12. > :02:22.in order to allow Labour back in? I think the choice is very different

:02:22. > :02:25.

:02:25. > :02:30.from a by-election. Before you do, can I just you, because it may not

:02:30. > :02:37.have dawned and you, that it looks like you have not won, it looks

:02:37. > :02:47.like you have not even come second. It looks like you may have come

:02:47. > :02:48.

:02:48. > :02:58.third, is that not a disastrous performance for your party? We will

:02:58. > :02:59.

:02:59. > :03:04.wait to see the result. It looks like it is quite close. As a by-

:03:04. > :03:11.election, people are voting for a local candidate. Why would anyone

:03:11. > :03:19.be amazingly surprised, given that the last by-election any majority

:03:19. > :03:27.government one was in 1982, during the Falklands war. There is the

:03:27. > :03:32.last time a party gained a seat in government. It doesn't happen very

:03:32. > :03:42.often. It is not terribly surprising when people look at the

:03:42. > :03:42.

:03:42. > :03:51.serious issues of the day it may explain why he did not come first.

:03:51. > :03:59.-- it may explain why you did not come first. The Lib Dems are

:03:59. > :04:07.empowered. People will look for somewhere else to go. This is how

:04:07. > :04:17.things work force of it was clearly a contest between Labour and the

:04:17. > :04:22.

:04:22. > :04:32.Lib Dems. We have the four constituencies. The viewers will

:04:32. > :04:34.

:04:34. > :04:44.make up their minds. There were to show you what David said to be a

:04:44. > :04:49.

:04:49. > :04:59.I asked if he would be serious if he came third. If the party does

:04:59. > :05:02.

:05:02. > :05:09.well, and the Lib Dems hold onto the seat, is it a crisis? If we

:05:09. > :05:16.came third it would be a crisis. It is a close second it will also be

:05:16. > :05:23.uncomfortable. It is not going to dislodge David Cameron. The simple

:05:23. > :05:30.truth is it will make things more uncomfortable. A crisis for Cameron.

:05:30. > :05:34.It is not that much of a crisis. We want to win every election.

:05:34. > :05:39.didn't say it would be a crisis if he came second. He said it could be

:05:39. > :05:44.a crisis for the Conservative leader if he came third. But maybe

:05:44. > :05:54.what to wisteria at today. Mid-term you make difficult decisions.

:05:54. > :05:57.

:05:57. > :06:04.You're making hard cuts. Contrary to what has happened in many other

:06:04. > :06:12.by-elections for the governing party, it looks very close. It is

:06:12. > :06:18.not a collapse in the main governing party's vote. We may

:06:18. > :06:23.bounce back. There are two issues he will have to confront. If you

:06:23. > :06:30.have come third or squeezed in its second, it means that these guys

:06:30. > :06:38.were not just be a serious challenge, but it will cause your

:06:38. > :06:45.party great grief. As the rest of us have said, David Cameron was

:06:45. > :06:53.meant to sort out the rep problem and put these guys in their box.

:06:53. > :07:03.The possibility of mutating other seats goes down considerably. -- of

:07:03. > :07:19.

:07:19. > :07:25.the new taking. They did very well. They are taking votes of you.

:07:25. > :07:33.may be coming third or 4th. guys have lived for a long time on

:07:33. > :07:38.by-election success. If what we're seeing is a different party of

:07:38. > :07:46.protest which is needed the opposition or the Lib Dems, it is a

:07:46. > :07:51.different side of politics. Come the general election, it is Ed

:07:51. > :07:56.Miliband or David Cameron who will walk down Downing Street. They may

:07:56. > :08:03.not think it is quite as simple. They may not have the confidence in

:08:03. > :08:13.Labour to run the economy. They may not believe David Cameron has Would

:08:13. > :08:14.

:08:14. > :08:20.takes. -- has what it takes. If you look at the history of the

:08:20. > :08:25.Conservative Party, they are ruthless. Who knows what will

:08:25. > :08:35.happen tomorrow. If this result is as you say, who knows what will

:08:35. > :08:36.

:08:36. > :08:42.happen in the party? You were suggesting... You are suggesting

:08:42. > :08:48.that David Cameron may not fight the next election? We have been

:08:48. > :08:54.sitting here acting as though they may not be an eruption in the

:08:54. > :09:00.Conservative Party as a result of this. I find it amazing that the

:09:00. > :09:08.main opposition is relaxed about coming last. I never said I was

:09:08. > :09:16.relaxed. In the south-east there are four seats that a Labour. You

:09:16. > :09:21.cannot demonstrate the tool-making any progress. It does not seem like

:09:21. > :09:29.the one nation party Ed Miliband is talking about. I have been speaking

:09:29. > :09:37.with some Labour MPs there were very dissatisfied with Ed Miliband.

:09:37. > :09:41.I except that we would want to do better. I absolutely accept that.

:09:41. > :09:51.Most people know that a mid-term by-election when you're making some

:09:51. > :09:53.

:09:53. > :10:02.difficult decisions is a very different. Explain this to me. Mid-

:10:02. > :10:12.term by-election governments are unpopular. So why has he won the

:10:12. > :10:13.

:10:13. > :10:19.constituency? I learnt some of my pavement politics from Simon Hughes

:10:19. > :10:23.in 1997. The reality is that it matters that you have been there a

:10:23. > :10:33.long time and helping people on the ground. Those things make a

:10:33. > :10:49.

:10:49. > :10:55.She has got a cup of coffee. Over with Diane James. Diane James is

:10:55. > :11:01.with me. This looks like a very good night for you. You dreamt of

:11:01. > :11:07.becoming the first MP. Is that going to happen? Everything we are

:11:07. > :11:14.seeing at the moment is that it looks very good news for a second.

:11:14. > :11:20.I am still aiming for a first. But from what I'm hearing from the

:11:20. > :11:30.officers and from my own sources, it is going to be incredibly close.

:11:30. > :11:34.How do you assess the impact of that if you come in second? It is

:11:34. > :11:39.absolutely momentous. We said at the launch three weeks ago that we

:11:39. > :11:49.wanted to create a four-way marginal. We have created a two way

:11:49. > :11:54.marginal. Fantastic result. What is the reason, simply, that you seem

:11:54. > :12:00.to have achieved such a level of success here? It appears that you

:12:00. > :12:06.have become the new protest party. Is that the case? Is that

:12:06. > :12:13.sustainable? I think it is sustainable. But it is not just

:12:13. > :12:19.protest. Every time we were out there, we were needing to raise

:12:19. > :12:26.issues. People were raising issues. They had already made the link. We

:12:26. > :12:32.were able to substantiate that. We were able to take them on the next

:12:32. > :12:36.step of the journey. To the extent on which a party has relied on

:12:36. > :12:40.issues of immigration, fears of mass migration from Romania and

:12:40. > :12:45.Bulgaria and tried to make much of the closure of the plant down in

:12:45. > :12:48.Southampton. That may be an issue that has a lot more to do with the

:12:48. > :12:55.weakness of other eurozone economies than it does with the

:12:55. > :12:59.UK's relationship. Let us look on that issue at the moment. Turkey is

:12:59. > :13:05.not a full member of the European Union. The money from the European

:13:05. > :13:09.Investment Bank to close the site and transfer production, Danny

:13:09. > :13:16.Alexander was a member. Why did he not intervene? Why did George

:13:16. > :13:20.Osborne not intervene? When you start translating those messages,

:13:20. > :13:30.all of a sudden the electorate are going that they are not clean on

:13:30. > :13:34.that. The coalition government has mastered up for me. -- not stood up.

:13:34. > :13:41.And used to be a Conservative supporter. Maria Hutchings has just

:13:41. > :13:45.arrived. What will people like her think of you if you have given them

:13:45. > :13:52.such trouble? I will not be on their Christmas card list. We will

:13:52. > :14:00.see what happens. The man who has partly run this campaign talk about

:14:00. > :14:05.a pact. If these pledges over the referendum are written in blood. Is

:14:05. > :14:11.there any chance of any kind of bridge-building between the

:14:12. > :14:17.Conservatives and UKIP at all? Or his tonight the end of any chance

:14:17. > :14:23.of any kind of pact or agreement or voters returning to the

:14:23. > :14:32.Conservatives? Festival, Nigel and David Cameron probably have to take

:14:32. > :14:36.stock of the situation. Where the Conservatives will then rue this

:14:36. > :14:41.evening's results and think otherwise, I cannot tell. If we go

:14:41. > :14:49.back to where the voters come from for UKIP on this occasion, it has

:14:50. > :14:55.been across all three parties. about Labour? They are nowhere in

:14:55. > :15:00.this election. Is your sense that to have taken as much from them in

:15:00. > :15:07.terms of support as the Conservatives, or is the reality

:15:07. > :15:13.that the bulk of YouTube supporters are disillusioned Tories? -- UKIP.

:15:13. > :15:17.We have taken votes from all three parties. What I was hearing from

:15:17. > :15:23.Labour voters is complete and utter disillusionment with Ed Miliband

:15:24. > :15:29.and the fact they have not been stood up for. That is why they have

:15:30. > :15:36.come to us. Nigel Wood himself stand. Do you think she could have

:15:36. > :15:40.won if it was not for him? I do not think so. It is important that we

:15:40. > :15:43.proved to the country that we have a high calibre of potential

:15:43. > :15:52.candidates coming through and demonstrating this is no longer a

:15:52. > :15:59.one-man band. You are very confident. And I am indeed. Nigel

:15:59. > :16:05.is a fantastic leader. We need him in Europe. Let us assume for the

:16:05. > :16:08.sake of argument that it is second place. A fantastic performance for

:16:08. > :16:17.you and your party. But it still means the seat in Parliament has

:16:17. > :16:22.not come to YouTube. When is that going to happen? -- UK i P. No idea.

:16:22. > :16:28.Take a look at the House of Commons and identify who is the next one to

:16:28. > :16:38.resign their seat for whatever reason. We will be back. You are

:16:38. > :16:38.

:16:38. > :16:43.confident this trend will continue and to feel inevitably? I really do.

:16:43. > :16:50.It is an uphill move for us. But every single time we have

:16:51. > :16:57.consolidated efforts with their pace and message with their voters.

:16:57. > :17:02.Thank you very much. It is going to be a good night for her. Do not go

:17:02. > :17:09.away. Interesting to see a candidate who says a major could

:17:09. > :17:16.not do better. You do not often hear that. -- Lido. Any update on

:17:16. > :17:22.when we might get the results? us have a look around. All of the

:17:22. > :17:28.main candidates are here. That is a positive sign. They are going

:17:28. > :17:34.through the votes for the remaining 10 smaller candidates. There is a

:17:34. > :17:42.process of trying to get an agreement from the candidates with

:17:42. > :17:47.the birds that appear to be tallied. Then they get on to the matter of

:17:47. > :17:51.dealing with you chip and the Liberal Democrats. We are told that

:17:51. > :17:57.the two o'clock was the optimistic prediction. That is not going to

:17:57. > :18:04.happen. Even if we do not have a recount, we are looking at three

:18:04. > :18:13.o'clock. Thank you. We will come back to you when we hear more. The

:18:13. > :18:23.Conservative candidate has arrived. It does not look like she has won

:18:23. > :18:25.

:18:25. > :18:33.tonight. UK i P seems a strong candidate. -- UKIP. I make a

:18:33. > :18:39.prediction. We have real momentum in this. If the Liberal Democrats

:18:39. > :18:48.get it, it will be as a result of the postal votes. The largest

:18:48. > :18:52.number of the people who voted to Dave voted for you? I think so.

:18:52. > :19:00.likelihood is that they would win the campaign. Do not forget where

:19:00. > :19:05.we started. Absolutely fantastic candidate. I'm happy tonight.

:19:05. > :19:14.of people would say that Diane James should win the Tory candidacy.

:19:14. > :19:22.People are welcome to apply. A UK i P defected during the campaign to

:19:22. > :19:26.us. We're on a process of what is a very difficult thing. To steer the

:19:26. > :19:31.country through choppy waters. We are making some progress. We need

:19:31. > :19:37.to stay on course. People in this country want us to be able as a

:19:37. > :19:41.nation to continue without worrying about money. That we are able to

:19:41. > :19:45.create jobs in the economy. That has been one of the most

:19:45. > :19:51.interesting features of this. We also want to look after people who

:19:51. > :19:59.are hard-pressed. Making sure that millions of people are paying lower

:19:59. > :20:03.tax. There is a range of things that people need to do. In the end,

:20:03. > :20:09.come the general election, 800 days, then we will see what has happened.

:20:09. > :20:19.People will make the decisions based on that. We have a strong

:20:19. > :20:20.

:20:20. > :20:23.local base. But what I heard from attended it was taking low-paying

:20:23. > :20:32.people out of tax, the best ever increases in the state pension,

:20:32. > :20:37.apprentice rates, quite relevant to this constituency and making sure

:20:37. > :20:47.that people understand that we need a fair society. We talk about it on

:20:47. > :20:55.a regular basis. The Tory candidate has a daughter who went to the

:20:55. > :21:02.local school. Dipper defender of public service. -- a proud defender.

:21:02. > :21:12.Did you choose the wrong candidate? Know I do not. I agree with the

:21:12. > :21:12.

:21:12. > :21:22.various elements. And the coalition achievements. I hugely disagree

:21:22. > :21:23.

:21:23. > :21:29.with using kids in elections. I find distasteful. I am a state-

:21:29. > :21:35.school person. Maria is a state school person. She made one comment

:21:35. > :21:40.about it. Parents should be able to send their children where they want.

:21:40. > :21:47.To involve that as an election issue is very sad. We have got John

:21:47. > :21:54.down in Eastleigh. There he is. John Denham, welcome to the by-

:21:54. > :22:00.election special. A Labour MP for the Eastleigh constituency. Why are

:22:00. > :22:05.you doing so badly? I do not think we are doing badly. This is an

:22:05. > :22:09.election where we fought a good campaign. We got less in one in ten

:22:09. > :22:17.birds two years ago. There is very little Labour Organisation on the

:22:17. > :22:21.ground. We have done well. Look at the collapsing share for the birds

:22:21. > :22:25.are the Liberal Democrats. And a disastrous night for the Tories.

:22:25. > :22:30.And we will go away confident that the sort of people who live in

:22:30. > :22:35.Eastleigh in our target seats can be won to us in the next general

:22:35. > :22:38.election. Eastleigh is a place where Labour will win seats,

:22:38. > :22:42.particularly at local authorities. You will go away from Eastleigh

:22:42. > :22:48.having been third in the general election and 4th in the by-election.

:22:48. > :22:53.How does that constitute a triumph? I did not say it was a triumph. But

:22:53. > :22:56.we will go away with a result that we have worked hard for. People

:22:56. > :23:01.have been voting hard for us today who previously voted Liberal

:23:01. > :23:08.Democrat. We did not have all done of the people that we would have

:23:08. > :23:12.liked to. But having talked to many of the voters, we know we are in a

:23:12. > :23:17.good position in the South to win the target seats we once in the

:23:17. > :23:21.next general election. To rebuild the Labour Party in Eastleigh and

:23:21. > :23:26.begin winning seats in local government. The were up against an

:23:26. > :23:32.unpopular coalition, 12 points ahead in the national polls, the

:23:32. > :23:40.coalition is presiding over a severe squeeze on living standards.

:23:40. > :23:47.And you came for us. -- 4th. came into a seat where we got less

:23:47. > :23:51.than 10% of the boat 2.5 years ago. Very little organisation on we

:23:51. > :23:57.fought an effective campaign. We have looked at the voters we have

:23:57. > :24:02.talked to. We did not get all the people we would have liked to. But

:24:02. > :24:07.we are happy for what this tells us about Labour's ability to win in

:24:07. > :24:11.the south in two years' time. going to ask you again, because I

:24:12. > :24:14.am baffled. I do not understand how coming fourth in a southern

:24:14. > :24:24.constituency it gives you any idea of how you are going to win seats

:24:24. > :24:32.

:24:33. > :24:42.They have not been voting for you. There has been a popular search

:24:43. > :24:44.

:24:44. > :24:51.today. A protest vote centred on a real issue of migration. We have

:24:51. > :25:01.said we are recognising things we did not get right in government. We

:25:01. > :25:08.have got to do more of that. Not enough of the voters knew the

:25:08. > :25:13.message. The widow have to keep repeating it until it comes across.

:25:13. > :25:20.The biggest impact has been on the Tories. They believed they would

:25:20. > :25:25.have been to win this. They said they had to win it. It is either a

:25:25. > :25:30.disaster Warwick catastrophe for them. We have been going through

:25:30. > :25:40.both scenarios. Since you were in labour hit by a virtue, I would

:25:40. > :25:45.like to stick with Labour's position. Could you explain to our

:25:45. > :25:54.viewers why when faced with an unpopular coalition, that the surge

:25:54. > :25:58.away from the coalition was to another party, and not you. There

:25:59. > :26:05.are two challenge is for Labour. We have no base on the ground. We have

:26:05. > :26:13.no local seats. We have got to do far more to build at a grassroots

:26:13. > :26:19.level as a party of potential government. That is the reason why

:26:19. > :26:23.a seat like a seat likesuch a short campaign is such a challenge for us.

:26:23. > :26:33.It is one that we know we are up to. There are two things we have to

:26:33. > :26:34.

:26:34. > :26:41.look at. Will it be the same as our target seats? Know, because we have

:26:41. > :26:46.the support there. Have we shown a commitment by Labour Party, locally

:26:46. > :26:51.and across the region, to fight hard to represent Eastleigh voters?

:26:51. > :26:54.Yes we have. We did not get all the voters we wanted, but we have

:26:54. > :27:00.talked to enough people who have been open to know what we will

:27:00. > :27:05.build on in the future. Is it tough being that upbeat when you have

:27:05. > :27:10.just come forth? No, I have been here throughout the campaign forced

:27:10. > :27:17.off I have been part of those conversations. Why have been saying

:27:17. > :27:22.to you is exactly what I have talked to people across the country.

:27:22. > :27:30.We are safe to conclude, despite the impressive course you are

:27:30. > :27:39.putting it, that's Labour has not yet reached the people of east

:27:39. > :27:49.Leigh? It is a challenge for us to make sure that we build one-nation

:27:49. > :27:49.

:27:49. > :27:53.Labour, not just in key seats, but the job of building one-nation

:27:53. > :27:58.Labour right across the south of England is not something for a few

:27:58. > :28:06.weeks are a couple of weeks. It is something we will do in the months

:28:06. > :28:12.and years ahead. Do you think if you had not chosen a comedian as a

:28:12. > :28:17.candidate he would have been taken more seriously? John O'Farrell has

:28:17. > :28:26.been a fantastic candidate. To have a candidate who had a recognition

:28:26. > :28:35.write write about and made Labour's

:28:35. > :28:45.engagement real and important, was an advantage. He has been a member

:28:45. > :28:50.

:28:50. > :28:56.and campaigner of the party for 30 years. He has done well today.

:28:57. > :29:03.colleagues have been impressed by your performance. They have said

:29:04. > :29:11.you need to learn lessons if there has been a major search in this

:29:11. > :29:21.constituency. What lessons we to learn? The lesson is that although

:29:21. > :29:21.

:29:21. > :29:28.we can say this is a protest vote, there was a consistent theme

:29:28. > :29:34.amongst the potential Labour voters, that was migration. The lesson we

:29:34. > :29:38.have got to learn is that we not only need to embellish the issue of

:29:38. > :29:42.migration, but have practical policies to put forward to tackle

:29:42. > :29:48.the issue that people have been concerned about. The issues of

:29:48. > :29:55.undercutting wages, not paying minimal wage, employment agencies

:29:55. > :29:59.that exclude local people. With the further expansion ahead, we need to

:29:59. > :30:03.look at where employers are going to try to recruit from. What do we

:30:03. > :30:08.have to do to make sure that people who are already here have the

:30:08. > :30:15.chance of getting jobs and migration is not needed. We have

:30:15. > :30:25.been setting those things out. We have got to keep pushing that

:30:25. > :30:25.

:30:25. > :30:31.message. We have to understand what we will do about it. Your policy

:30:31. > :30:39.would be to have no restrictions of Romanians and Bulgarians who come

:30:39. > :30:49.to the country, is that correct? We have the maximum transition period

:30:49. > :30:52.

:30:53. > :31:00.we can. We now look at other issues to see what can be done. It is

:31:00. > :31:05.about undercutting wages, employers who recruit overseas, it is about

:31:05. > :31:09.people who are cheating on the employment laws. Measures have that

:31:09. > :31:13.sort that we have talked about. We need to make sure people know is

:31:13. > :31:23.that these are not peripheral policies, but quarter the story.

:31:23. > :31:28.

:31:28. > :31:33.Thank you. -- Corps to the story. Chuka Umunna, I would say that the

:31:33. > :31:38.problem is that the party still assumes that large numbers of

:31:38. > :31:42.people will be coming into the country. It has about what to do

:31:42. > :31:51.once he would come in. You cannot have an agency that the only deal

:31:51. > :31:57.with immigrants. There is no -- that is not why he is getting votes,

:31:57. > :32:01.they think that too many people are coming in in the first place.

:32:01. > :32:09.related to their concerns over the economy and wages. John is right

:32:09. > :32:14.about this problem of undercutting. In some respects you can end up

:32:14. > :32:17.with the rest at the bottom. It means that you need proper

:32:17. > :32:22.enforcement of the minimum wage. That is not to do about numbers

:32:22. > :32:29.coming into the country, what would you do about that? We are looking

:32:29. > :32:39.at these issues as part of the policy. We introduced. Space system

:32:39. > :32:53.

:32:53. > :32:59.on a non EU based immigration. -- -- a points based system. We are

:32:59. > :33:05.part of the EU and have free movement of labour. Unless you come

:33:05. > :33:10.heart of the EU there is no change. We have got free movement. Can I

:33:10. > :33:15.say one thing? The reason we are members of Europe go back to the

:33:15. > :33:22.original concerns around immigration and migration, that is

:33:22. > :33:29.economic. We think on balance it is a lot better for the economy to be

:33:29. > :33:34.part of the EU. We do not need to worry about the EU anymore. 40 % of

:33:34. > :33:42.our exports go there. We need to expand into the new emerging

:33:42. > :33:49.markets of Brazil. Europe is the window. The trade rumours we have

:33:49. > :33:55.with these new emerging markets allow us to support the markets.

:33:55. > :34:02.You had better be brief. We didn't have to be part of the slowest

:34:02. > :34:08.growing economic bloc, that is the EU. We have Nigel Farage. Should I

:34:08. > :34:18.be congratulating you on coming second tonight? It is a dramatic

:34:18. > :34:23.surge. Windows 3.6% in the general election. On the roads cast today,

:34:24. > :34:29.we are first. We're not first on postal votes. The bid Dem strategy

:34:29. > :34:38.of getting us out of the way was entirely right. It is a huge step

:34:38. > :34:44.forward for the party. You are sure that you have come second? Very

:34:44. > :34:49.sure that we have come second. The results will be announced shortly.

:34:49. > :34:54.The Lib Dems will be around 1,000 votes ahead of us. We cannot catch

:34:54. > :34:59.up with the deficit we had on the postal vote. We are delighted. This

:34:59. > :35:05.is massive progress for us. If the Conservatives had not split average

:35:05. > :35:13.we would have won. Do you have a sense of how many votes you may be

:35:13. > :35:20.ahead of the Conservatives? I am told a couple of 1,000. A

:35:20. > :35:27.reasonably comfortable margin. Around 30% of the votes that came

:35:27. > :35:31.to us came from the Conservatives. Whitaker votes from everywhere. We

:35:31. > :35:36.have a big jump in votes from people who have not bothered to

:35:36. > :35:40.vote for many years. We have drawn the votes from across the board.

:35:40. > :35:44.The candidates are being called to the front of the stage. The

:35:44. > :35:51.announcement is not exactly imminent. We are looking at the

:35:51. > :35:56.stage at the moment. We can see the Labour candidate there. Your

:35:56. > :36:01.candidate said that even if you have stood you were not done that

:36:01. > :36:07.make you would not have done any better. What do you say to that?

:36:07. > :36:14.agree. She was a great candidate. She had the support of the party.

:36:14. > :36:20.She has been a credit to us. The battle between the partners has

:36:20. > :36:28.been bloody and unpleasant. She has risen above it all. She has done a

:36:28. > :36:38.great job. To UCH future leadership challenge their? You never know. --

:36:38. > :36:44.

:36:44. > :36:49.do you see a future leadership challenge. She was a former Tory.

:36:49. > :36:56.One of your members who left to join the Tories so that you are a

:36:57. > :37:03.Stalinist dictator and anti-women. Who'd you think is more anti-women?

:37:03. > :37:10.In response to the statement that I am anti-women, if only that were

:37:10. > :37:17.true, my life would have been simpler. What will you do for an

:37:17. > :37:24.encore? Assuming you have come a decent second tonight, what his

:37:24. > :37:30.next? I will Tolly was his next. The English county council

:37:31. > :37:39.elections. It is my elate the smack My intend to put 2000 candidates

:37:39. > :37:49.across the field. -- it is my intention to Port 2000 candidates

:37:49. > :37:58.People are People are tired of having three Social Democrat parties that

:37:58. > :38:08.are indistinguishable. We will tackle the tough issues. What was

:38:08. > :38:08.

:38:08. > :38:17.it that got you the Serge? Here we are, with Southampton down the road,

:38:17. > :38:23.we were told in 2004 that migration would lead to an increase of up to

:38:23. > :38:28.15,000 a year. There are 30,000 in Southampton alone. There is a

:38:28. > :38:33.chronic shortage of social housing. Young people are finding getting

:38:34. > :38:41.jobs incredibly difficult. The idea that we should open our doors to 29

:38:41. > :38:45.million more people next year, enough is enough. It is all well

:38:45. > :38:51.and good to have a balanced migration policy, but the penny is

:38:51. > :38:57.beginning to drop. We are indeed EU, we have to have free movement of

:38:57. > :39:01.people. If you want to control your borders and handle migration, he

:39:01. > :39:07.cannot remain members of the EU. My prediction is that over the next

:39:07. > :39:13.year or two, as the debate gathers round, the issue of immigration

:39:13. > :39:15.will become the absolute key to the whole thing. The last Labour

:39:15. > :39:20.government got the predictions wrong as to how many immigrants

:39:20. > :39:26.would come from eastern Europe. It would be hard to argue that

:39:26. > :39:31.Eastleigh has been swamped by any outsiders, Would it not? Know.

:39:31. > :39:36.There are something like 30,000 people from eastern Europe living

:39:36. > :39:46.in this fairly immediate vicinity. You're in is to be, that is

:39:46. > :39:50.

:39:50. > :39:54.Southampton. -- you are in the Many people go there to seek work.

:39:54. > :40:01.Certainly, in the unskilled labour market we have an oversupply. This

:40:01. > :40:11.may be good for the big employers, but if it is putting young British

:40:11. > :40:12.

:40:12. > :40:22.people out of what it is not a net Get the results in five in five

:40:22. > :40:24.

:40:24. > :40:34.minutes. You can get us a thing you You are the national figure. When

:40:34. > :40:44.

:40:44. > :40:53.you hear this result, will there I will only send two things. I'll

:40:53. > :40:58.be thinking, well done Diane James. And then I will go on and lead this

:40:58. > :41:02.party in the European elections. We will cause an earthquake in British

:41:02. > :41:06.politics. I could not have done that if I had stood in this

:41:06. > :41:14.election and been successful. You'll have to watch a bat as well.

:41:14. > :41:18.I will be watching. I will lead to go for the announcement of the

:41:18. > :41:24.count. It is interesting in decisions about Eastleigh and the

:41:24. > :41:34.make-up of it, they are overwhelmingly white and English-

:41:34. > :41:36.

:41:36. > :41:42.speaking. 96%. Let me describe it crudely, and anti-immigrant message.

:41:42. > :41:47.My experience in many years is that it is constituencies that have the

:41:47. > :41:54.fewest immigrants, the fewest non- white people, where you can raise

:41:54. > :41:59.people's fears. In a constituency that is mixed, people lived

:41:59. > :42:09.together togethert the world does not end. They are not

:42:09. > :42:11.

:42:11. > :42:19.antagonistic. In very wide seats, panders to people's fears. Not

:42:19. > :42:24.reality. There is not a reality. it the same as the BNP? Not in the

:42:24. > :42:32.same way. But when you talk about Bulgarians and Romanians, 29

:42:32. > :42:42.million. That is the total population of Bulgaria and Romania.

:42:42. > :42:42.

:42:42. > :42:48.It is just ridiculous. It with the praise on their fears. -- really

:42:49. > :42:55.praise. The second point, I was clear that when the Labour

:42:55. > :43:04.government were in power and the figures given of 70,000 people that

:43:04. > :43:09.this was hugely underestimated. I supported a phasing introduction.

:43:09. > :43:18.If we had done it, we would not have the same issues and worries.

:43:18. > :43:25.That is a big political mistake. The last government changed it. It

:43:25. > :43:30.is about work and housing and public services. Unless the

:43:30. > :43:37.government is trying to solve a problem that Labour did not sold in

:43:37. > :43:42.office, which is to build a more shared homes and affordable housing

:43:42. > :43:52.in Eastleigh or suffer core Hertfordshire or Liverpool, we are

:43:52. > :43:52.

:43:52. > :44:00.not going to cater for the needs. Can I just say, we are nothing like

:44:00. > :44:04.the BNP. I will interrupt to now. We're going to Eastleigh. I have

:44:04. > :44:09.been the acting returning officer at the above collection. I do

:44:09. > :44:17.hereby give notice that the number of birds recorded for each

:44:17. > :44:27.candidate at the said election is as follows. The Wessex regional

:44:27. > :44:37.lists, dirty birds. -- 30 votes. Bishop Lawrence, Elvis Loves Pets

:44:37. > :44:38.

:44:38. > :44:48.party, 72 votes. Duggan Jones., the peace party, non-violence justice

:44:48. > :44:48.

:44:48. > :44:58.environment. 128 votes. Paul Raymond. Beer, Baccy and Crumpet

:44:58. > :45:09.

:45:09. > :45:19.Party party. 235 averts. -- votes. 136 votes. The Loony Party. 136

:45:19. > :45:24.

:45:24. > :45:34.birds. Maria Hutchins, the Conservative Party. 10,559 votes.

:45:34. > :45:44.

:45:44. > :45:54.Diane James, UK i P. 11,500 an 71 votes. -- 11,571. Ian Ross,

:45:54. > :45:58.

:45:58. > :46:08.National Action, 392 thirds. -- of votes. Kevin Melbourne, Christian

:46:08. > :46:21.

:46:21. > :46:31.Party, 163 votes. John O'Farrell, Labour Party, 4088 votes. The trade

:46:31. > :46:44.

:46:44. > :46:54.unions and socialist, 62 votes. The Independent. 768 votes. Michael

:46:54. > :47:07.

:47:07. > :47:17.Thornton, Liberal Democrats, 13,342 votes. Michael Walters, the English

:47:17. > :47:17.

:47:17. > :47:22.democrats, 70 votes. 90 spoiled ballot papers. I do hereby declare

:47:22. > :47:32.that Michael Douglas Staunton is to be elected Member of Parliament for

:47:32. > :48:02.

:48:02. > :48:12.Eastleigh. -- Michael Douglas Firstly, I would like to thank the

:48:12. > :48:13.

:48:13. > :48:20.police. Richard, the returning officer. And all of those who have

:48:20. > :48:24.worked today on polling stations and this evening. This has been a

:48:24. > :48:29.brilliantly run election day. A smashing night on short notice,

:48:29. > :48:34.smashing night on short notice, given this by-election. I thank all

:48:34. > :48:39.of you for playing your part in the smooth running of what is a huge

:48:39. > :48:49.logistical operation. I would like to pay tribute to all of the

:48:49. > :48:50.

:48:50. > :48:55.candidates, particularly Maria, Diana and Joe. I have had the

:48:55. > :48:57.opportunity to debate in the scrutiny of the nation's media

:48:57. > :49:02.scrutiny of the nation's media throughout this election. Thank you

:49:03. > :49:09.for fighting on the whole a reasonable and well run campaign.

:49:09. > :49:18.Focused on the issues that matter to people here in Eastleigh.

:49:18. > :49:21.Thirdly, I would like to thank my own party. And the huge numbers of

:49:21. > :49:27.Liberal Democrat activists and volunteers who have come to

:49:27. > :49:32.Eastleigh to campaign for me over the past four weeks. To those who

:49:32. > :49:38.donated or made phone calls from a fire. And to the deputy prime

:49:38. > :49:45.minister, Nick Clegg, who support and advice have been a tremendous

:49:45. > :49:50.boost to me and the campaign. You have all demonstrated to the nation

:49:50. > :50:00.the effective fighting spirit that is very much alive in the party. I

:50:00. > :50:01.

:50:01. > :50:05.will never ever forget it. It is very difficult to single out

:50:06. > :50:12.individuals for particular thanks on these occasions. But I must

:50:12. > :50:20.thank my agent and the superb leader on the Eastleigh Borough

:50:21. > :50:28.Council. Victoria. The professional manager of my campaign. And of

:50:28. > :50:36.course, Peter. Where are you? My wife. Without whose support I would

:50:36. > :50:41.not be standing here tonight. I am very proud of the campaign we

:50:41. > :50:45.fought together. Focused on the issues that matter to people in the

:50:45. > :50:55.community and the strong record of delivering by the council team. And

:50:55. > :50:58.

:50:58. > :51:06.finally, I would like to thank the people of Berkeley, Eastleigh, West

:51:06. > :51:11.End, and all those who supported me today. This is my home. This is

:51:11. > :51:16.where I've brought of my family. Eastleigh is a beautiful part of

:51:16. > :51:20.the country. With friendly people and many good friends. There is no

:51:20. > :51:27.greater honour than to have your support to be elected as your

:51:27. > :51:33.representative tonight. I commit myself now to be a hard-working

:51:33. > :51:40.constituency MP and a strong voice for every person in this community.

:51:40. > :51:44.Today, you have given me the ability to work to defend our

:51:44. > :51:50.countryside, to continue to bring jobs and growth, to fight to

:51:50. > :51:56.continue cutting taxes to ordinary working people, to defend the

:51:56. > :52:06.public services and to ensure a fairer deal for our pensioners.

:52:06. > :52:07.

:52:07. > :52:11.This is what I will do. (APPLAUSE). Finally, tonight is a great night

:52:11. > :52:15.for a Liberal Democrats nationally. The strongest signal of support for

:52:15. > :52:23.Nick Clegg. An affirmation of the role working in national interest

:52:23. > :52:29.within the coalition and a boost to the party's position in government.

:52:29. > :52:37.Fighting for a stronger economy and a fair society. I hope this result

:52:37. > :52:42.in Eastleigh tonight goes to show to those about those who say the

:52:42. > :52:46.Liberal Democrats will not win again, those so keen to do us harm,

:52:47. > :52:56.that the Liberal Democrats can do it. We have done it. We will do it

:52:57. > :53:11.

:53:11. > :53:16.again. The Liberal Democrats are Ladies and gentlemen. I want to

:53:16. > :53:21.echo all of the tanks that Michael has just given. But I also want to

:53:21. > :53:26.applaud the Eastleigh community. I may have come second this evening.

:53:26. > :53:36.But you, Eastleigh voters, have delivered a two Mondays political

:53:36. > :53:36.

:53:36. > :53:45.shock. Can I say, no longer will UKIP be excluded from surveys and

:53:45. > :53:55.polls. We will now always be included in interviews. I will need

:53:55. > :53:57.

:53:57. > :54:01.to again. Thank you, everyone. May I congratulate Michael on his win.

:54:01. > :54:11.(APPLAUSE). That was Dan James, who came second

:54:11. > :54:24.

:54:24. > :54:32.I would like to thank the people of East the who voted for me and put

:54:32. > :54:36.their belief in me. I would like to thank the incredible campaigning

:54:36. > :54:44.team I have had and the hundreds of activists who have karma to help

:54:44. > :54:49.and support our campaign. -- come out. I would just like to say that

:54:49. > :54:59.this was a very cunning campaign. And to thank the other candidates.

:54:59. > :55:09.And to congratulate Michael. And to thank my mother, who has done so

:55:09. > :55:19.much for me. My husband, my children. And to say that I wish

:55:19. > :55:21.

:55:21. > :55:31.for the very best of the people. She was rather emotional in her

:55:31. > :55:31.

:55:31. > :55:37.speech. She was close to tears, at some stage. She would not give any

:55:37. > :55:47.post result in to viewers. The Liberal Democrats have held on. A

:55:47. > :55:47.

:55:48. > :55:52.reduced majority. The majority around 1,700. UKIP has come second.

:55:52. > :55:58.Only about 1,700 votes behind the Liberal Democrats. The biggest news

:55:58. > :56:08.of all, perhaps, is that the Conservatives have come third,

:56:08. > :56:10.

:56:10. > :56:13.1,000 votes behind UKIP. These are This go straight to our newsroom to

:56:13. > :56:19.get what they make of it. question to be asked about this

:56:19. > :56:24.result is when is a victory really a victory? The Liberal Democrats

:56:24. > :56:28.will be later tonight. In truth, the proper emotional reaction is a

:56:28. > :56:34.relief. All they have much to do in this by-election is to get to the

:56:34. > :56:44.2% of the vote. That is the lowest share of the third about has

:56:44. > :56:49.previously run a post-war by- elections. -- wine. Why has the

:56:49. > :56:58.party managed to hang onto the seat? The Conservatives have

:56:58. > :57:08.suffered a dropping. Their vote is down by 14%. It is the worst

:57:08. > :57:15.

:57:15. > :57:19.There is no doubt that the one party they can really come out of

:57:19. > :57:29.this with credit is UKIP. Just under public the son of the vote.

:57:29. > :57:41.

:57:41. > :57:51.Another record share of the vote Labour tried to talk their progress

:57:51. > :58:03.

:58:04. > :58:12.up. But it is utter leave minuscule. Thank you. That was an excellent

:58:12. > :58:17.summary. Simon Hughes, are you really do? I am very pleased. When

:58:17. > :58:26.you defend a seed, you either hold it or you lose it. But we won it

:58:26. > :58:32.well. We got a majority of nearly 2000. Michael is an excellent

:58:33. > :58:40.candidate. He had the credibility, locally. It was a consolation. This

:58:40. > :58:50.is the first time that we have defended one of our seats. He had a

:58:50. > :58:54.

:58:54. > :59:00.I think we got the message across. We should do people buy it was

:59:00. > :59:05.worth voting for us. We have a good record on tax, pensions. I think it

:59:05. > :59:15.is a very credible performance. It gives us no problem. Only positive

:59:15. > :59:20.

:59:20. > :59:24.You have a record share of the vote for UKIP. Happy with that. The last

:59:24. > :59:29.three by-elections, we finished second. People are seeing us as a

:59:30. > :59:36.fresh start. An antidote to what is going on in Westminster. We are

:59:36. > :59:43.heading into exciting times. You'll see a political earthquake in May.

:59:43. > :59:47.It would translate into even more votes. Would it be hard to think of

:59:47. > :59:57.their worst result for the Conservative voters than the one

:59:57. > :59:57.

:59:57. > :00:01.the endured tonight? Can I congratulate Michael? We did not go

:00:01. > :00:06.into this election with a conservative in that seat and we

:00:06. > :00:13.have not come up with one. We did not break that 31-year spell of no

:00:13. > :00:23.governing party picking up by election on this occasions.

:00:23. > :00:32.

:00:32. > :00:38.have a 90% saw them at -- swing One doesn't shy of the Kate, Lib

:00:38. > :00:43.Dems, sister of the lead hundred. The order is very interesting. We

:00:43. > :00:48.all scored quite highly. The people that did not get anywhere is the

:00:48. > :00:56.main opposition. With less than half of our vote. And not showing

:00:56. > :01:02.the kind of progress there would need to show. We will come to the

:01:02. > :01:06.opposition in a moment. Is there in any way you cannot regard this as a

:01:06. > :01:12.disastrous result for the Conservatives? He came first. He

:01:12. > :01:17.came third in a seat which was being fought, in circumstances,

:01:17. > :01:27.very good for a Conservative victory over the Lib Dems. Not only

:01:27. > :01:29.

:01:29. > :01:39.did you not speak to them, you came third. -- beat them. It is not like

:01:39. > :01:40.

:01:40. > :01:50.our vote collapsed. Need to terms, and in opposition, Surrey, in

:01:50. > :01:55.government. Governing party's do not... Governing parties did not

:01:55. > :02:00.take seats. They already have the seat. That has only happen four

:02:00. > :02:05.times since the war. It is not terribly surprising. We have come

:02:05. > :02:11.quite close. What we needed to his redouble our efforts so by the next

:02:11. > :02:15.general election we will have a story to tell. And that the

:02:15. > :02:19.Conservative Party is leading the charge and will put us in the right

:02:19. > :02:24.place in the issues that matter. Which include a lot of the issues

:02:24. > :02:32.UKIP voters would be concerned about. There has been a said net

:02:32. > :02:36.fought in immigration. We have seen a quarter of the deficit. You raise

:02:36. > :02:45.some legitimate concerns. I was very critical, under the previous

:02:45. > :02:54.government, they do not have his vision controls. -- position. There

:02:54. > :02:59.are things we can do about housing, people's ability to claim benefits.

:02:59. > :03:07.I want to know what -- where this leaves the political parties. The

:03:07. > :03:17.real loser tonight is David Cameron. I disagree. We look at the history

:03:17. > :03:17.

:03:17. > :03:26.of by-elections director. We did badly in need terms. -- we do badly

:03:26. > :03:31.in need terms. You cannot win this said in the general election or by

:03:31. > :03:39.election. Let's wait for the general election. You lost the last

:03:39. > :03:45.one. You have lost the by-election tonight. What gives you an

:03:45. > :03:50.indication that he would do well in the general election? Much can

:03:50. > :03:57.change. Do not try to predict from the basis of three single by-

:03:57. > :04:01.election. The kind of things people are concerned about, considered

:04:01. > :04:10.what youQTAC Voters would have been worried about, and a referendum on

:04:10. > :04:20.Europe. We are doing that. -- UKIP voters. We are doing a lot of good

:04:20. > :04:26.things. Tony Blair gave away so much of the rebate. Serious

:04:26. > :04:30.problems to require serious solutions. One of the really

:04:30. > :04:33.serious political problems is the deep unrest that is about to break

:04:33. > :04:38.out in the Conservative backbenchers as a result of this

:04:38. > :04:44.result. It will reinforce those of your colleagues who are still the

:04:44. > :04:51.minority, the usual suspects, they do not think David Cameron is a

:04:52. > :04:58.winner. And this by-election result will have confirmed that view.

:04:58. > :05:08.It will confirm the view about what everyone knows about by elections,

:05:08. > :05:12.

:05:12. > :05:16.which is that they are a terrible It leaves the Labour Party with all

:05:16. > :05:21.the difficulties. Ed Milliband, with all the difficult problems to

:05:21. > :05:29.answer about why they are not making any progress in southern to

:05:29. > :05:38.comfort. We had been in power for well over ten years. He had been in

:05:38. > :05:44.power for 2.5 years. The second thing I want to say and I say this

:05:44. > :05:54.to Simon as well, I would hardly treat this result as an endorsement.

:05:54. > :05:54.

:05:54. > :06:00.We saw your share of the fault -- vote for by 14%. I am about to come

:06:00. > :06:04.to a position. In this room, the only two parties were have

:06:04. > :06:14.increased the party -- their share of the vote is the Labour Party and

:06:14. > :06:15.

:06:15. > :06:21.UKIP. And quite substantially. is why John Denham that -- meant by

:06:21. > :06:31.progress. 0.2%. When you read the newspapers tomorrow morning, and

:06:31. > :06:38.

:06:38. > :06:42.when the Prime Minister wakes up, I do not think of... This is a seat

:06:42. > :06:47.which we had next to no organisation whatsoever. We had no

:06:47. > :06:55.councillors on the ground, whatsoever. We literally built an

:06:55. > :07:01.organisation from scratch. 20,000 people contacted, 400 volunteers.

:07:01. > :07:06.It has not been a massive increase in the share of the vote. We have

:07:06. > :07:10.increased a very slightly. But I am happy that we will be walking away

:07:10. > :07:17.from these by-election with an infrastructure on the ground, a

:07:17. > :07:23.based in which we can derive from our seed to win. As I said in the

:07:23. > :07:32.beginning, if we won, we would have looked at the majority...

:07:32. > :07:42.argument is that you should have won. This so far has been renamed

:07:42. > :07:43.

:07:43. > :07:48.the grasping Shore's seat. -- shores. The argument is not that he

:07:48. > :07:52.should have won the seat. The agreement is that in the middle of

:07:52. > :07:58.end unpopular coalition is that you should have got a bigger share of

:07:59. > :08:03.the vote than an increase of 0.2%. Is that not a fair point? The Test

:08:03. > :08:09.will be in the target seats where we are organised. Is this not a

:08:09. > :08:13.test? This is not a place where we had organisation on the ground.

:08:13. > :08:18.What I do know is that where we have, and can realistically expect

:08:19. > :08:28.to win seats, if you look at the local elections last year, we won

:08:29. > :08:35.

:08:35. > :08:42.800 extra counsellors. We won even I hope he is making his way towards

:08:42. > :08:49.us. So he can give us the first interview as the new MP. The Lib

:08:49. > :08:57.Dem MP. Does this make the Lib Dems more comfortable inside the

:08:57. > :09:06.coalition? This is the first election where the contest for

:09:06. > :09:16.first and second place... We started in first place and the

:09:16. > :09:18.

:09:18. > :09:24.Conservatives were in second place. Think of the relative strength and

:09:24. > :09:32.politics in terms of the coalition. It is significantly strengthens us

:09:32. > :09:42.in parliament. It shows the toys that they cannot write us off or

:09:42. > :09:47.wipe us out. It means our seats, art in a stronger decision tonight.

:09:47. > :09:54.Given that you coalition partners came third, do you have confidence

:09:54. > :09:59.in the Conservatives as partners? We will work together with them.

:09:59. > :10:06.Have you hold yourself to a bunch of the election losers? For them,

:10:06. > :10:10.it is their problem. They have a problem, which is Europe. They are

:10:10. > :10:14.all over the place on Europe. We have a constructive year. We say

:10:15. > :10:19.they should be a referendum. We do believe Denny's to be

:10:19. > :10:26.rationalisation. But we believe, in the end, that our future is with

:10:26. > :10:29.our neighbours, not separate from them. We have shown that we have

:10:29. > :10:38.been able to work together to tackle some of the nation's biggest

:10:38. > :10:45.problems. We cut the deficit down. This result will not change that.

:10:45. > :10:49.We will work together to get the job finished. The global race is on.

:10:49. > :10:59.The Conservative candidate has refused to say a word to any of the

:10:59. > :11:04.

:11:04. > :11:11.We have the first interview with the new Lib-Dem MP for Eastleigh,

:11:11. > :11:16.Michael Thornton. Why do you think you one? I think we won because the

:11:16. > :11:21.people of the slee recognise that here the Lib Dems have always had a

:11:21. > :11:25.superb record of delivery. -- of Eastleigh. We have always listens

:11:25. > :11:30.to the people and we have always made sure we do a good job

:11:30. > :11:35.extremely well. You fought the election almost entirely on local

:11:35. > :11:42.issues, you're a local man yourself, you're on the local council. That's

:11:42. > :11:48.right. Will you now developed a voice on national issues? Or will

:11:48. > :11:53.you stick to local issues? It has got to be a combination. An MP's

:11:53. > :11:59.first duty is to his constituency. That is your electorate and that is

:11:59. > :12:06.how it works. However I will be on the national stage and I must

:12:06. > :12:13.represent them nationally on national issues. How big a fan of

:12:13. > :12:16.the Coalition are you? What I am a fan of is the Liberal Democrat part

:12:16. > :12:21.in the Coalition which has done everything they can to provide

:12:21. > :12:27.decent tax cuts for Mary walking people, looking after our

:12:27. > :12:32.pensioners, and looking after our schools. -- ordinary working people.

:12:32. > :12:36.You have only been an MP for 10 minutes and you're ready avoiding

:12:36. > :12:43.the questions! It's a sign you're getting the hang of it. Let me ask

:12:43. > :12:47.you again, I you're a fan of the Coalition? The Coalition is a

:12:47. > :12:50.necessary Business Partnership -- are you a fan of. It's not about

:12:50. > :12:55.being a fan. That implies you're running after a pop star or

:12:55. > :13:01.something. But I am pleased to be part of helping the country recover

:13:01. > :13:05.from a serious heart attack while protecting ordinary working people

:13:05. > :13:09.and pensioners and schools. It's not a question of being a fan, it's

:13:09. > :13:13.a question of doing the job right. When you get up to London, when you

:13:14. > :13:18.go and see your party's leadership and tell them to get a grip and

:13:18. > :13:23.bring this leadership crisis to an end? It made this by-election much

:13:23. > :13:29.more difficult for you. That's what a brand-new MP does, Andrew, pops

:13:29. > :13:37.up and tells the leaders how to run the party! A bit early for that.

:13:37. > :13:41.But you're the hero of the hour for the Lib Dems, Mr Thornton. It's

:13:41. > :13:46.everybody that has worked for me. You know you don't become an MP on

:13:46. > :13:50.your own, we have had thousands of people all over the country to help.

:13:50. > :13:57.All the people down here helping as well. It's not me, it's everybody,

:13:57. > :14:02.the whole team from the sleek and the whole national team. -- from

:14:02. > :14:07.Eastleigh. Why did UKIP come second as opposed to the Conservatives?

:14:07. > :14:14.this stage are not really in a position to judge. Obviously you

:14:14. > :14:18.care came up very hard. -- I'm not. -- UKIP came. They ran a tough

:14:18. > :14:23.campaign. But why the Conservatives could and beat them? You will have

:14:23. > :14:27.to ask them. When you get into parliament, Mr Thornton, what

:14:27. > :14:33.issues would you like to have a voice on? What will your speciality

:14:33. > :14:38.be? Where will we hear Mr Thornton speak? We will have to wait and

:14:38. > :14:42.speak but I do have a business background. My main focus will be

:14:42. > :14:47.on bringing investment, like we have done here to Eastleigh, to see

:14:47. > :14:51.how we can scale that up across the country. It takes skill to see what

:14:51. > :14:58.investment fits where, that is what I will be most interested in.

:14:58. > :15:02.there any time in this campaign when you fear you might not win?

:15:02. > :15:06.feared. The whole way through I was never so arrogant as to think just

:15:06. > :15:11.because I'm local, I'm a Lib-Dem, I'm going to win. We knew that

:15:11. > :15:16.wasn't the case and we knew we had to work hard for it. The whole way

:15:16. > :15:23.through I knew we couldn't take it for granted. Has it surprised you

:15:23. > :15:27.that the Conservatives have come third? Yes. It has. Mr Thornton, I

:15:27. > :15:33.know you will want to celebrate with your team but we thank you for

:15:33. > :15:38.giving your first interview as the Liberal Democrat for Eastleigh to

:15:38. > :15:41.the BBC. Simon, if that result was projected

:15:41. > :15:47.across the country, I know that's dangerous to do, you would lose

:15:47. > :15:52.quite a few seats. Can I say that interview showed Andrew Neil first

:15:52. > :15:56.interview, a very safe pair of hands. A very competent guide as

:15:56. > :16:02.part of the selection process I was really satisfied -- competent dive.

:16:02. > :16:07.We had a solid candidate who knew the score -- competent guy. I

:16:07. > :16:13.haven't done any calculations about the next general elections.

:16:13. > :16:22.would be down to 42 seats on that performance. Or lino is two-thirds

:16:22. > :16:26.of our seats are with stories in the second place -- for I know. --

:16:26. > :16:31.Tories. If they are stronger, and it is logical, we don't have to

:16:31. > :16:36.spend as many resources making sure we can keep the Tories at bay. That

:16:37. > :16:44.gives us the capacity to hold our seats against Labour. It will boost

:16:44. > :16:48.the party. We have never won seats because our show of the vote has

:16:48. > :16:52.been a certain number, we have done so because we have worked on the

:16:53. > :16:56.ground as well as having a good national message. Being in

:16:56. > :17:01.government first is a great piece of credibility that we have never

:17:01. > :17:06.had in my lifetime. Conservative strategy in the run up

:17:06. > :17:10.to 2015 is to take 20 seats from the Lib Dems. Eastleigh was one of

:17:10. > :17:13.them. A lot of Conservatives will be thinking tonight, if we couldn't

:17:13. > :17:19.win Eastleigh the chances of winning 20 Lib-Dem seats look

:17:19. > :17:24.pretty far-fetched. I wouldn't over interpret a mid-term by-election

:17:24. > :17:30.result. The history of by-elections doesn't suggest that would be a

:17:30. > :17:34.good idea. A lot would be made of the way the cookie crumbled here.

:17:34. > :17:38.2,800 votes between the top three parties in this case. Everyone is

:17:38. > :17:40.fairly close together, with the exception of the main opposition,

:17:40. > :17:47.who are nowhere in this contest and they should be demonstrating they

:17:47. > :17:51.could make a breakthrough. It's obviously the case that you can't

:17:51. > :17:57.immediately walked into a place and overturn what a very difficult seat.

:17:57. > :18:02.You thought you might win? I have always been honest about this seat.

:18:02. > :18:07.Apart from a few days ago! I have always said the Lib Dems are very

:18:07. > :18:11.well dug in. It's difficult to overturn that in a short time. You

:18:11. > :18:17.need to demonstrate to people what you can do. One of your

:18:17. > :18:23.parliamentary colleagues is waiting, down in the sleeve. Why did your

:18:23. > :18:27.party lose tonight? -- in the Eastleigh. The simple answer to

:18:27. > :18:34.that is we did not score enough votes on the night. The more

:18:34. > :18:37.complex situation was here tonight. A huge network of volunteers,

:18:37. > :18:41.enormous amounts of information about voters and where they are,

:18:41. > :18:47.that's a mountain to climb in a sure time. Where does this leave Mr

:18:47. > :18:52.Cameron? -- a short time. I don't think it means much. One has to

:18:52. > :18:58.think of this in a more complex way. If we see a swing from the Lib Dems

:18:58. > :19:08.to UKIP of 19% and a swing from the Conservatives to the EU Kip of 19%,

:19:08. > :19:08.

:19:08. > :19:11.we don't see the Labour vote rising at all -- -- to UKIP.

:19:11. > :19:16.Straightforwardly, a lot of people are saying none of the above at

:19:16. > :19:21.this election. If the explanation for the Liberal Democrats winning

:19:21. > :19:24.is the quality of their organisation and the extensive

:19:24. > :19:28.nature of the grassroots organisation, that makes them why

:19:28. > :19:37.they have won, it doesn't explain why you have come third. Why did

:19:37. > :19:41.that not apply to UKIP as well? Why just explained. There were boats

:19:41. > :19:46.coming away from the Lib Dems, a spring of 19%, and a swing away

:19:46. > :19:51.from us as well -- votes. And Labour, the main party of

:19:51. > :19:56.opposition, the party that says it is a One nation Party, failed to

:19:56. > :20:02.capitalise at all. All those boats have gone to UKIP. Their revival

:20:02. > :20:07.has risen -- their level -- votes. You thought this campaign with the

:20:07. > :20:11.staunchly Eurosceptic candidate -- you fought. She said she would vote

:20:11. > :20:16.to leave Europe as currently constituted. Your party leader has

:20:16. > :20:21.promised a referendum in or out. You have consolidated your Euro-

:20:22. > :20:27.sceptic credentials, yet you still have a 19% swing to UKIP. It hasn't

:20:27. > :20:32.worked. You made the mistake of assuming that all of this people

:20:32. > :20:36.voting UKIP have done so because of their European credentials. I think

:20:36. > :20:40.what we're looking at is a replacement of the Lib Dems as the

:20:40. > :20:44.party of protest. Simply people were saying none of the above.

:20:44. > :20:48.People are facing tough times in Eastleigh, lots of things are

:20:48. > :20:53.happening across the country that they don't have any control of. We

:20:53. > :20:57.need to cut the deficit, cut immigration, down by a third we

:20:57. > :21:02.heard today, lots of good things going on. But there are people in

:21:02. > :21:07.distress here and a lot of them said we're unhappy. It's a by-

:21:07. > :21:11.election of protest. You couldn't win Eastleigh in the general

:21:11. > :21:15.election of 2010. You were unable to win it in a by-election which

:21:15. > :21:20.was hardly been the best circumstances that the Liberal

:21:20. > :21:26.Democrats could have hoped for. I would suggest on this record you're

:21:26. > :21:29.not going to win Eastleigh for the foreseeable future. There was a

:21:30. > :21:33.very little cut through of the issues on the streets. I had to say

:21:33. > :21:37.on the streets every day the matters that have been the topic of

:21:37. > :21:43.the press came up very rarely on the doorstep. The reason for the

:21:43. > :21:47.by-election came up very rarely on the doorstep. We have got a Lib-Dem

:21:47. > :21:52.organisation bedded in here in Eastleigh. 40 councils out of 40,

:21:52. > :21:57.an amazing machine on the ground. It is phenomenal. In 21 days we

:21:57. > :22:04.couldn't take it over. Did you fight with the wrong candidate?

:22:04. > :22:07.absolutely not. Maria Hutchings has been a champion for Eastleigh for

:22:07. > :22:11.six years. When she lost to Chris Hume in 2010 she could have

:22:11. > :22:15.disappeared and did nothing more but she didn't, she stayed and in

:22:15. > :22:20.bedded herself in the community -- Chris Huhne. She got involved with

:22:20. > :22:24.the gravel pit issue, with local development issues. She's the best

:22:24. > :22:28.candidate we could have possibly have. 30% of people who said they

:22:28. > :22:34.were going to vote Conservative said it was because of Maria

:22:34. > :22:38.Hutchings. 80% of people in the sleet had heard of her. She is a

:22:38. > :22:46.fantastic and a day. -- in Eastleigh. Why had she upped sticks

:22:46. > :22:54.and decided not to give any interviews tonight? -- fantastic

:22:54. > :22:59.candidate. You have already indicated she is a particular sort

:22:59. > :23:03.of person. She's very emotional. She has a challenging home life and

:23:03. > :23:07.her emotions barrel all over the place. Tonight you could imagine

:23:07. > :23:12.she was a bit upset and she didn't want to speak to the press, you can

:23:12. > :23:17.forgive her that. Thank you for joining us. You're a

:23:17. > :23:22.protest movement, what do you do for an encore? I think our opinion

:23:22. > :23:25.poll ratings will grow, we will do well in by-elections. The council

:23:25. > :23:31.council elections and then we will win the European elections next

:23:31. > :23:35.year -- County Council. Can I just say one thing, you talk about

:23:35. > :23:41.pressure on David Cameron. The other it, he's our best recruiting

:23:41. > :23:44.sergeant. -- be alert. You're predicting you will get a higher

:23:44. > :23:51.share of the vote in the European elections next year? Yes, and we

:23:51. > :23:54.will send the most MEPs to Brussels. You might be right. I would never

:23:54. > :24:01.take the risk of predicting elections. But I will say the

:24:01. > :24:06.people looking for the serious solutions this country has a need

:24:06. > :24:09.for, the Coalition has been doing that. When you get into analysing

:24:09. > :24:13.UKIP and their manifestos we have seen, a large part of that was to

:24:13. > :24:17.spend more money and do all the things that created the debt and

:24:17. > :24:22.the deficit and the problems that got us into this mess in the first

:24:22. > :24:27.place. Good for a protest but long- term not serious. We will leave it

:24:27. > :24:32.there tonight, thank you for joining us. We will be back with