:00:13. > :00:16.Tonight on This Week, as TV classic Dad's Army is being remade for the
:00:17. > :00:21.big screen, we parade a Westminster Dad's Army on our very small screen.
:00:22. > :00:28.The three main party leaders are under threat, not from Nazis, but
:00:29. > :00:32.from Nigel and his UKIP army. Doing her bit for This Week's Home
:00:33. > :00:43.Guard, former Tory and now UKIP foot soldier Christine Hamilton. Nigel's
:00:44. > :00:46.army is on the march, and the enemy, they don't like it up them.
:00:47. > :00:49.As former army officer and Tory MP Patrick Mercer resigns after being
:00:50. > :00:52.found guilty of a cash for questions scandal, some are accusing General
:00:53. > :00:57.Farage of cowardice for not fighting the by-election. Sergeant Maguire
:00:58. > :01:08.and his men assess the week's political skirmishes. Colonel
:01:09. > :01:13.Mercer's desertion has left captain Cameron fighting on the home front
:01:14. > :01:19.as well as in Europe. But the boys from Westminster on CR here. Don't
:01:20. > :01:22.panic. We are doomed. Captain Mainwaring and his men were
:01:23. > :01:25.used to feeling like fools but when does a defeat turn into a
:01:26. > :01:34.humiliation? Cricket legend Henry Blofeld, is giving the orders. I am
:01:35. > :01:38.afraid, Andrew, we are doomed. Yes, doomed.
:01:39. > :01:44.Don't panic, Mr Portillo. You stupid boy.
:01:45. > :01:48.Evenin' all. Welcome to This Week, and for viewers lacking in
:01:49. > :01:54.spirituality, if not spirits, welcome to a Christian country. For,
:01:55. > :01:57.lo, that is what our godly Prime Minister, Call-Me-Dave, believes we
:01:58. > :02:02.are, and the evidence for which is all around us. Yes, church
:02:03. > :02:05.attendance may be bombing but Christian charity is booming, with a
:02:06. > :02:07.growing number of the population congregating at church-run food
:02:08. > :02:10.banks, where folks drop on their knees and pray for spaghetti hoops
:02:11. > :02:17.to deliver them from their temptation. The feeding of the 5000
:02:18. > :02:24.has become the feeding of the 913,000 in the past 12 months alone.
:02:25. > :02:28.Hallelujah, praise the tinned goods! And if this wasn't enough to confirm
:02:29. > :02:32.your faith, who can doubt that He has now come amongst us, once again
:02:33. > :02:36.to show us the error of our heathen ways, to lead us out of European
:02:37. > :02:40.darkness and deliver us from the evil Van Rumpy-Pumpy of Brussels, a
:02:41. > :02:46.man who can walk on water and then change it into beer for his devoted
:02:47. > :02:51.disciples. The way, the truth, and the life. No-one comes to an EU
:02:52. > :02:59.referendum except through Him. Yes, it's Nigel Farage, Superstar, walks
:03:00. > :03:03.like a woman and he wears a bra. Actually, I made that bit up, but it
:03:04. > :03:07.won't matter. Nothing sticks to him. Speaking of those with a political
:03:08. > :03:11.Messiah complex, I'm joined on the sofa tonight by two know-it-alls
:03:12. > :03:14.whom no-one can understand. Think of them as the Marlon Brando and
:03:15. > :03:18.Jamaica Inn of late night political mumbling. I speak, of course, of
:03:19. > :03:20.#sadmanonatrain, Michael Portillo, and back by absolutely no public
:03:21. > :03:40.demand whatsoever, #baffled, Diane Aboott.
:03:41. > :03:50.Good evening to you both. Good evening, Andrew. Your moment of the
:03:51. > :03:54.week. It has been said the arrest of Gerry Adams is a matter of dark
:03:55. > :03:59.policing. I think it is unlikely to be that. I think it is a symptom of
:04:00. > :04:02.an unresolved issue. Since the time of the Good Friday agreement
:04:03. > :04:06.onwards, we have never really dealt with what we are going to do about
:04:07. > :04:11.cases, things that happened a very long time ago, which have not yet
:04:12. > :04:15.been brought to justice. And it really creates a huge dilemma. On
:04:16. > :04:20.the one hand you can understand that in the horrific case of the crime,
:04:21. > :04:27.the murder of Jean McConville, the family is keen to have truth and
:04:28. > :04:30.justice, on the other hand, if justice brings into its ambit some
:04:31. > :04:36.of the leading figures of the peace process, it may threaten the peace
:04:37. > :04:40.process itself. And so it appears that at some level, at some point,
:04:41. > :04:46.we may have to decide that what we want is certainly the truth but not
:04:47. > :04:55.necessarily justice. Interesting. It is a huge development and as yet, a
:04:56. > :04:59.lot still to go. Diane. I was interested into Riz a's statement on
:05:00. > :05:07.stop and search. You contributed in Parliament. She had a big fight with
:05:08. > :05:11.Number Ten. It was stopped and searched that caused the 1981
:05:12. > :05:15.Brixton riot. It is a question of long-standing concern. If you are
:05:16. > :05:19.black in certain parts of London you are 39 times more likely to be
:05:20. > :05:24.stopped, and you only get 9% of arrests from these, mostly for small
:05:25. > :05:28.quantities of cannabis. Did you think you would be listening to a
:05:29. > :05:31.Tory Home Secretary saying this? Never, and I think she should get
:05:32. > :05:36.some credit for it. Now, what do you do with a party
:05:37. > :05:40.called UKIP? Labour and the Tories tried to ignore it. But its poll
:05:41. > :05:43.ratings still rise. Nick Clegg challenged its leader to TV debates,
:05:44. > :05:46.which gave it another boost in the polls. The media go into full-on
:05:47. > :05:49.attack mode, as only the British media know how, bigging up some
:05:50. > :05:52.obscure UKIP candidate's absurd views on Lenny Henry and leading a
:05:53. > :05:55.national newscast on some nutty donor's views on women wearing
:05:56. > :05:59.trousers, and UKIP moves 11 points ahead of Labour and 20 ahead the
:06:00. > :06:02.Tories in polls for the Euro elections. Undaunted by this track
:06:03. > :06:05.record of abject failure, the media and the other parties are now
:06:06. > :06:08.claiming Nigel Farage is a big feartie for refusing to stand in a
:06:09. > :06:13.by-election that only they were demanding he fight. Further proof
:06:14. > :06:16.that he's a scaredy custard is the fact that hasn't entered the
:06:17. > :06:21.Eurovision Song Contest or applied for the vacant position of Man
:06:22. > :06:26.United manager. So what makes UKIP the Teflon Party? We turned to a
:06:27. > :06:30.noted Faragista, who knows the man and the party, and asked her to
:06:31. > :06:58.explain the appeal. Here's Christine Hamilton, with her take of the week.
:06:59. > :07:06.Hello, I'm Christine Hamilton and I've been with UKIP for 12 years.
:07:07. > :07:13.This week, the game changed. Having ignored, laughed and insulted us,
:07:14. > :07:16.the liberal, Labour, Conservatives, have woken up to the threat we pose
:07:17. > :07:23.and have launched a full frontal assault. We have had endless attacks
:07:24. > :07:28.on UKIP leaders, members and supporters, but kippers are made of
:07:29. > :07:32.stern stuff. We can take it. In fact, it makes us stronger. The more
:07:33. > :07:38.mud they chucked at us, the higher our membership rises, and our
:07:39. > :07:43.opinion poll ratings. These smears will continue to backfire. They just
:07:44. > :07:49.put us into the spotlight. Some Lib Dem peer said UKIP were the BNP in
:07:50. > :07:56.blazers. What rubbish. UKIP does not do discrimination on sex, race or
:07:57. > :08:02.creed. Simple. UKIP today mirrors the peasant revolt of 1381. More,
:08:03. > :08:05.ordinary people are rising up against the political elite. Voters
:08:06. > :08:09.are fed up with Cameron, Miliband, Nick Clegg and the whole out of
:08:10. > :08:14.touch arrogant Westminster bubble. There is a fast-growing grassroots
:08:15. > :08:17.party attracting people who have never been involved in politics
:08:18. > :08:24.before. UKIP is bound to have a few nutters and fruitcakes, and a dodgy
:08:25. > :08:29.donor said yesterday that women should not wear trousers. Mommsen is
:08:30. > :08:32.on stilts. The fact is that UKIP is full of strong, determined women in
:08:33. > :08:38.key roles, and they are there on merit, unlike some of the other
:08:39. > :08:42.parties. People are flocking to UKIP in droves because they like what
:08:43. > :08:46.they see and they believe what we stand for. Nigel's army is on the
:08:47. > :08:50.march, and the political elite do not know how to stop us.
:08:51. > :08:53.And from her boudoir in Battersea to our own little boudoir over the
:08:54. > :09:04.river in the heart of Westminster, Christine joins us now. Diane, we
:09:05. > :09:07.have seen the media, we have seen the three mainstream Westminster
:09:08. > :09:13.parties to a full frontal assault on Nigel Farage and UKIP, and it
:09:14. > :09:16.doesn't stick. Why? Because, although I think it is a little
:09:17. > :09:21.disingenuous of Christine to say that it does not do prejudice, the
:09:22. > :09:27.polls show that the strongest issue for UKIP is immigration. The truth
:09:28. > :09:31.is that there is a populist argument against the current Westminster
:09:32. > :09:37.consensus on Europe. I am pro-European and the end of the day.
:09:38. > :09:40.But it cause I spent the 1990s examining the workings of economic
:09:41. > :09:44.monetary union, I drew the conclusion that it was a project of
:09:45. > :09:50.European elites, and that hasn't changed. What has happened to Greece
:09:51. > :09:54.has made everything worse. So there is a populist feeling about Europe
:09:55. > :09:58.which the Westminster elite have not properly reflected. But you are
:09:59. > :10:01.probably talking to the wrong person. I wanted Ed Miliband to come
:10:02. > :10:08.out for a referendum ahead of David Cameron and he would not do it. Have
:10:09. > :10:14.you seen Michael Portillo's face? No, I am dazzled by his white shirt.
:10:15. > :10:21.I thought your answer when quite a long way from the question. Oh, you
:10:22. > :10:25.noticed that, too! I was struck that you were saying that it's a populist
:10:26. > :10:29.movement but it seems to be endorsed by your own intellectual enquiries
:10:30. > :10:37.into the subject. In other words, the populist movement is right. I am
:10:38. > :10:40.a sceptic. But is the media using the wrong tactics with UKIP? Every
:10:41. > :10:46.time you attacked them, they rise in the polls. I think they are. The
:10:47. > :10:50.understanding was a few months ago that the Tory press would let UKIP
:10:51. > :10:54.have it with both barrels with every scandal they could drag up. They
:10:55. > :10:58.have implemented that and it has not worked. That is worse than that
:10:59. > :11:04.because the way the Conservatives have chosen to deal with UKIP is by
:11:05. > :11:07.trying to out trump them on immigration and concern about the
:11:08. > :11:11.European Union. That is a strategy which is bound to fail, because if
:11:12. > :11:15.you say we are very concerned about immigration, or that you are doing
:11:16. > :11:19.is saying Nigel Farage is on the right subject. But since the
:11:20. > :11:22.Conservative leadership is not willing to leave the European Union,
:11:23. > :11:26.Nigel Farage can always say the solution is to leave the European
:11:27. > :11:33.Union. So you endorse his argument but you can't go as far as he goes
:11:34. > :11:38.in his solution. There are a lot of closet UKIP supporters in the Tory
:11:39. > :11:44.party. Not so close it. And a lot of them, if enough other factors, would
:11:45. > :11:49.happily cross the floor. You said you were pro-European. So am I. I am
:11:50. > :11:53.massively pro-Europe and in favour of immigration, but against the EU
:11:54. > :11:58.and against uncontrolled, unfettered immigration. I love Europe, it is a
:11:59. > :12:03.wonderful place, but I just don't want to be under the rule of Europe,
:12:04. > :12:08.governed by Europe. I want to be governed by people I can vote for an
:12:09. > :12:13.vote in and out, not by unelected bureaucrats. That is where we
:12:14. > :12:18.differ. You are going into these elections with a head of steam
:12:19. > :12:26.behind you. Don't forget, the polls go like that. I know you want to
:12:27. > :12:31.manage expectations, unlike several people in UKIP who do not seem to
:12:32. > :12:37.know that game. Supposing you do really well? What happens next? The
:12:38. > :12:41.expectation is that we will win the European elections. Of course we
:12:42. > :12:48.want to manage expectations. We might not. We are obviously going to
:12:49. > :12:52.do well and we will have more MEPs. People criticise UKIP MEPs because
:12:53. > :12:56.they don't turn up to this or that. UKIP MEPs want to be out of Europe.
:12:57. > :13:00.They are being elected to something that they want to abolish. So they
:13:01. > :13:07.will spend their time working towards that. But what happens next,
:13:08. > :13:12.with that big UKIP vote, in the 2015 General Election, you deliver that
:13:13. > :13:17.to the Labour Party. I don't believe that is true. Many who vote UKIP
:13:18. > :13:23.will return to tribal loyalties next year, of course. I was in Bath with
:13:24. > :13:27.Nigel Farage on Tuesday and somebody stopped me industry and said, I am a
:13:28. > :13:33.lifelong Labour supporter. I am a shop steward all my life. I am
:13:34. > :13:38.voting for you in Europe. But it is the Tory vote you will hurt in 2015.
:13:39. > :13:44.You would be lucky to win one or two seats at the next general election.
:13:45. > :13:49.You could deliver the election to Mr Miliband. Is that the plan? Is it
:13:50. > :13:54.your hope that in opposition the Tories would go very UKIP and
:13:55. > :13:59.actually UKIP could move in with the extreme sceptical Tory party? You
:14:00. > :14:02.are making the assumption that UKIP is just a bunch of disenchanted
:14:03. > :14:08.Conservatives, which is so not the case. A large number, to give an
:14:09. > :14:12.example, a large number of UKIP votes come from the Labour Party,
:14:13. > :14:19.and from people who have never voted before, or have not voted for ages.
:14:20. > :14:22.But address the point. The votes will come disproportionately from
:14:23. > :14:26.the Conservatives and is likely that will deliver the election to the
:14:27. > :14:30.Labour Party. The most important thing to me is the long-term,
:14:31. > :14:36.getting out of the EU. You asked me a question, let me finish. In the
:14:37. > :14:39.meantime, if that means we have Ed Miliband as prime minister after
:14:40. > :14:44.whatever date it is in June next year, so be it. Because I want the
:14:45. > :14:49.long-term solution for this country, which is to get out of the
:14:50. > :14:55.EU, because I can only see disaster if we continue within it. I thought
:14:56. > :15:01.it was Mr Cameron offering the referendum. UKIP is not here to prop
:15:02. > :15:05.up Mr Cameron in government. The Tories are dividing the UKIP vote.
:15:06. > :15:09.Cameron has lost so much Conservative support it is actually
:15:10. > :15:14.nothing to do with what Nigel Farage has done. It is to do with what
:15:15. > :15:17.Cameron has done and has not done. If we have a short term Labour
:15:18. > :15:23.government, or a coalition with Labour as the dominant party, for
:15:24. > :15:27.me, so be it. Can I deal with the question you asked Christine? The
:15:28. > :15:30.first thing, when Conservatives going to opposition to do with the
:15:31. > :15:35.hope of the right that they will elect a leader who is on the
:15:36. > :15:40.mentally Eurosceptical. That is one is in David Cameron was elected but
:15:41. > :15:44.that leader always disappoints, and always becomes wedded to EU
:15:45. > :15:46.membership. The second thing is that one cannot assume the Tories will
:15:47. > :15:51.bounce back with whatever sort of leader. If they don't win the next
:15:52. > :15:55.election, they will soon be in a position where they have not won an
:15:56. > :16:01.election for 30 years. The last election the Conservatives won was
:16:02. > :16:04.in 1992. I think that is without precedent. Even in the middle of the
:16:05. > :16:09.19th century, the Conservative Party did not go 30 years without winning
:16:10. > :16:14.an election. Is UKIP a racist party? I wouldn't
:16:15. > :16:21.call it a racist party. I would call it the British equivalent of the Tea
:16:22. > :16:24.Party. The American Tea Party. You will force the leadership of the
:16:25. > :16:28.Tory party to pay too much attention to you, to move too far to the right
:16:29. > :16:33.and make themselves unelectable nationally. I don't think UKIP can
:16:34. > :16:36.be held responsible responsible for what the leadership of the
:16:37. > :16:42.Conservative Party does. We used to be a pressure group, 20 years ago,
:16:43. > :16:45.we are a mainstream political party. That cannot be denied. We are a
:16:46. > :16:50.political party in our own right. We are not just a pressure group. We
:16:51. > :16:55.are standing on our own platform. We are going for what we want. What the
:16:56. > :17:01.Tory party does and what it responds is up to the Tory party. You say one
:17:02. > :17:04.or two people speak out. There is something every week with someone
:17:05. > :17:12.from UKIP with something embarrassing to say? We are
:17:13. > :17:17.acquiring members at the rate of knots. There will be nutters, loops
:17:18. > :17:21.and unpleasant people. We have had examples of that. The media is
:17:22. > :17:25.amassing so much attention on these new members, etc of UKIP. If the
:17:26. > :17:28.same attention was applied to all the other parties, you would find
:17:29. > :17:33.there are racists in every party, come on, you know that. You know
:17:34. > :17:40.that. UKIP is not a racist party. Nigel Farage right not to fight
:17:41. > :17:44.Newark? Yes. I think it was a very, very... It would have been a
:17:45. > :17:47.tremendous risk. On the other hand, had he pulled it off, that would
:17:48. > :17:51.have answered the question that Christine was struggling with a
:17:52. > :17:54.moment ago - what happens next after the European elections? If he had
:17:55. > :17:58.won that by-election, the Conservative Party would be
:17:59. > :18:02.absolutely quivering. He has no connection whatsoever with that part
:18:03. > :18:10.of the world. You know the reasons. I know, Roy Jenkins won Glasgow. In
:18:11. > :18:13.1982. Even more extraordinary. There are strong local candidates. They
:18:14. > :18:19.are choosing over this weekend. It's Tuesday night the candidate will be
:18:20. > :18:23.announced. If he ends up as the only UKIP MP after the next election,
:18:24. > :18:27.what have you achieved? Well, first of all, we will have presumably
:18:28. > :18:31.achieved a great deal in the European parliament's. We have - we
:18:32. > :18:41.are forcing the agenda. Making the pace. What will you achieved? No
:18:42. > :18:45.more - 100% than we achieved now. No more than Caroline Lucas and the
:18:46. > :18:49.Greens. It depends how you use it. Look at the waves Nigel Farage has
:18:50. > :18:51.made in the European parliament. He will make waves in Westminster. It
:18:52. > :18:54.might not necessarily be Nigel. There could be a by-elections
:18:55. > :18:59.somewhere else that somebody else stands for. They will have achieved
:19:00. > :19:05.not having a referendum on the European question in this country.
:19:06. > :19:13.We will see. Christine Hamilton. Thank you. Now it's late, beyond
:19:14. > :19:17.Paxo's bedtime late. 'Hush, little Jeremy, don't say a word, papa's
:19:18. > :19:20.gonna buy you a mockingbird.' We understand why you want to get to
:19:21. > :19:23.bed early, like most former Newsnight viewers. But we on This
:19:24. > :19:26.Week are made of sterner late-night stuff. We're powering through with
:19:27. > :19:31.damn good reason because, waiting in the wings, cricket commentating
:19:32. > :19:35.legend Henry Blofeld is here. Ready to face Diane's bouncers, and
:19:36. > :19:41.Michael's googlies. I hope you're wearing a box. Don't forget, if the
:19:42. > :19:44.mere mention of Michael's left-arm action has already turned your
:19:45. > :19:49.stomach, don't forget to tell us how upset you are on the Twitter, the
:19:50. > :19:55.Fleecebook and the Interweb. We'll be ignoring all your comments as per
:19:56. > :20:02.usual. We're not going to apologise for it, we've gone a bit Dad's Army
:20:03. > :20:06.crazy tonight. We're just so excited by the news that a film version of
:20:07. > :20:12.Dad's Army is to be remade starring Bill Nighy and Toby Jones after
:20:13. > :20:16.nearly 40 years! Besides, we love a good comeback on this programme, as
:20:17. > :20:20.you can see. Two for the price of one. With the euro election campaign
:20:21. > :20:23.hotting up this week, we recruited the Mirror's Kevin Maguire and his
:20:24. > :20:25.crack unit, the Westminster-on-Sea Home Guard, for their roundup of the
:20:26. > :20:36.week. # Who do you think you are kidding
:20:37. > :20:42.Mr Hitler # If you think we're on-the-run... #
:20:43. > :20:46.A couple of weeks away MPs are back at parliament. After Easter the
:20:47. > :20:56.battle for Europe is hotting up. It's time for every man to do his
:20:57. > :21:04.duty. Come on, left right, left right. Look lively. Hurry in place,
:21:05. > :21:14.please. Maguire, take a roll call with you. Or rap Pienaar. Private
:21:15. > :21:19.Watt. Yes. Private Grieve. We seem to have a few men missing in action.
:21:20. > :21:27.It must be the high-speed trains. Attendance in Captain Cameron's army
:21:28. > :21:32.isn't great when Colonel Mercer retired again. I believe when I've
:21:33. > :21:37.got something wrong, you have to fess up and get on with it. No point
:21:38. > :21:42.of trying to avoid it. What has happened has happened. I'm ashamed
:21:43. > :21:49.of it. Now, look, we are facing pretty stiff competition from
:21:50. > :21:53.Captain Farage and his platoon, I want Westminster-on-sea to win. It
:21:54. > :21:57.will be tin helmets on for the European election and we will try
:21:58. > :22:07.and finish them off after that. Look at Newark. This man, Farage, he has
:22:08. > :22:10.no stomach for a fight. If I said yes to Newark all anybody would talk
:22:11. > :22:14.to me about the next three weeks would be Newark, the by-election,
:22:15. > :22:17.who I was up against. It would have been a massive distraction for
:22:18. > :22:21.something I have been planning and getting ready for the last three
:22:22. > :22:28.years. The war will be better on the home front. The economy grew by a
:22:29. > :22:31.whole 0.8% in the first quarter. Lieutenant Osborne put out the
:22:32. > :22:35.bunting. The numbers show that Britain is coming back. We can't
:22:36. > :22:39.take that for granted. We have to work through our long-term economic
:22:40. > :22:43.plan. Of course, families are still feeling the affect of the great
:22:44. > :22:47.recession. We do now see, in place, the foundations for a broad-based
:22:48. > :22:53.recovery. Will battles at home have much impact on the European front?
:22:54. > :22:58.Captain Miliband and his Labour troop think they found a path to
:22:59. > :23:03.victory through rent controls. Will they be a barrage or pot-shot?
:23:04. > :23:11.Generation rent is a generation left ignored and insecure for too long.
:23:12. > :23:20.Not under a Labour government. Coming, sir. Captain Clegg has the
:23:21. > :23:26.guts to take on Captain or Colonel Farage. The Deputy Prime Minister
:23:27. > :23:29.won plaudits in his own party about saying nice things about the EU in a
:23:30. > :23:34.European parliamentary election much he took a beating in the TV debates.
:23:35. > :23:41.Trouble will break out if the Lib Dem troops are wiped out in three
:23:42. > :23:46.weeks' time. Word is that Le will be on manoeuvres. Salmond started his
:23:47. > :23:52.European campaign this week much he wants his own army am he will want
:23:53. > :23:58.his own country next. Have you seen the polls? They need to come up with
:23:59. > :24:01.a better theme than "we're all doomed." At Prime Minister's
:24:02. > :24:04.Questions Ed Miliband accused David Cameron of being in the pocket of
:24:05. > :24:13.the bankers over the Royal Mail sale. Get back in here. Coming, sir.
:24:14. > :24:17.The more we know about this privatisation the bigger the fiasco
:24:18. > :24:23.it is. A national asset sold at a knock down price. A sweetheart deal
:24:24. > :24:28.for the City. The Government totally bungled the sale. Every about this
:24:29. > :24:33.privatisation stinks. Captain Cameron didn't like that uncle
:24:34. > :24:38.Kevin. You stupid boy. Six questions and not a mention of GDP. Not a
:24:39. > :24:41.mention of what happened while we were away in terms of employment
:24:42. > :24:45.figures. Not a mention of the fact the deficit is getting better.
:24:46. > :24:52.Still, despite all the recent ferocity, the euro front is really a
:24:53. > :25:00.phoney war. The really nasty fight starts next year for May 2015. Come
:25:01. > :25:03.on lads, let's go over the top. # Who do you think you are kidding
:25:04. > :25:40.Mr Voter # If you think we're on-the-run... #
:25:41. > :25:47.Miranda joins us. Labour, Tories, Lib Dems are hoping this UKIP euro
:25:48. > :25:53.election will be a flash in the pan. Let's look at the potential fallout
:25:54. > :25:57.if they do well. Miranda, if the Lib Dems are wiped out at the euro
:25:58. > :26:02.elections, they have 12 MEPs, they lose them all, does Nick Clegg face
:26:03. > :26:08.a leadership crisis this summer? I don't think so. But there are a lot
:26:09. > :26:14.of mutterings about the approach to this set of European elections.
:26:15. > :26:20.Usually, the Liberal Democrat party, the most pro-European party in the
:26:21. > :26:24.political spectrum in the UK, tries desperately to avoid the subject of
:26:25. > :26:27.Europe when fighting the European elections. This changes it. They
:26:28. > :26:33.fight it on bread-and-butter issues like the economy. They are part of
:26:34. > :26:37.an a Government doing well in rebuilding the economy. Because of
:26:38. > :26:39.the UKIP issue, Nick Clegg came out fighting and take the fight to
:26:40. > :26:45.Farage and talk about the European Union. That is a huge electoral
:26:46. > :26:48.experiment. Without success? Yes. A huge electoral experiment. He might
:26:49. > :26:51.be able to get away with it by having a discussion about the way
:26:52. > :26:58.the election was fought and the decision to take on Farage. Then it
:26:59. > :27:03.is not an issue about him. It's about this huge (inaudible) that
:27:04. > :27:09.British politics is going through because of UKIP. Would you run out
:27:10. > :27:12.Convince Cable going on summer manoeuvres? There will be
:27:13. > :27:21.manoeuvres, I think. Whether they will be taken seriously or not is
:27:22. > :27:27.another matter. If the Tories come a poor third, if they do, does the
:27:28. > :27:34.parliamentary party go into headless chicken mode? They will be very,
:27:35. > :27:37.very upset. The thing that worries me much more than the European
:27:38. > :27:43.elections is the Scottish referendum. Because, you know, there
:27:44. > :27:46.are, in a way, no consequences from the European elections. I mean, it
:27:47. > :27:50.doesn't actually matter to any of us how many MEPs there are of various
:27:51. > :27:54.parties. It's all a question of morale and all that sort of thing.
:27:55. > :28:00.If the thing in Scotland goes wrong, everything changes the next morning.
:28:01. > :28:04.Badly for Mr Cameron? Much worse than the euro elections? Yes.
:28:05. > :28:09.Catastrophic for a Conservative Prime Minister to lose the union
:28:10. > :28:14.would be disastrous. It's the Conservative and Unionist Party.
:28:15. > :28:17.Catastrophic for us we lose over 40 votes in parliament and possibly
:28:18. > :28:21.could not win a general election again. If Labour comes a poor
:28:22. > :28:24.second, which again the polls suggest it will, of course we don't
:28:25. > :28:29.know until it happens, but for the sake of my question, if it does, do
:28:30. > :28:34.Mr Miliband have to reconsider his opposition to a referendum? You
:28:35. > :28:38.might think so. I have been a pro-referendum person. I wasn't
:28:39. > :28:43.thinking so, I was asking you! No, he won't actually. You don't think
:28:44. > :28:47.he will? No, Ed Miliband himself is a committed pro-European. I can say
:28:48. > :28:50.that with confidence. We know it will be bad for the Lib Dems. We
:28:51. > :28:56.don't know how bad. We talked about the Tories. Fallout and collateral
:28:57. > :29:01.damage for the Tories. For the main opposition party to come a poor
:29:02. > :29:04.second is not good. We don't believe that the 2015 general election will
:29:05. > :29:08.be fought on Europe. That's the strength of our position. So I think
:29:09. > :29:11.we will go forward much as we are. On the other hand, you have
:29:12. > :29:15.consistently said on this programme that Europe isn't the main theme for
:29:16. > :29:21.UKIP, it's immigration. There is no reason why the 2015 election should
:29:22. > :29:25.not be fought on immigration. It would be suicide for a progressive
:29:26. > :29:29.party to out do UKIP on race and immigration. Yvette Cooper was
:29:30. > :29:33.trying to sound tough on immigration? Is My over own view is
:29:34. > :29:38.there are no votes for Labour in moving right on immigration. You
:29:39. > :29:42.can't out do UKIP? You can't out do UKIP or the Tories either. The
:29:43. > :29:47.argument about Labour applies, admittedly more weakly, it applies
:29:48. > :29:52.to the Conservatives too. You cannot outtrump UKIP, why do it. There is
:29:53. > :29:56.the big UKIP issue which will go forward to the 2015 election, which
:29:57. > :30:00.is this anti-politics feeling. Which is going to be a huge problem for
:30:01. > :30:05.all the established parties. And, my feeling is that Labour, at the
:30:06. > :30:09.moment, are paying a slight game with trying to harness
:30:10. > :30:14.disgruntlement, very much in their own way, not in a UKIP way, with
:30:15. > :30:18.this critique of, you know, inequality etc. How you translate
:30:19. > :30:21.into a serious programme as a government in waiting next year I
:30:22. > :30:24.think is a big challenge for Ed Miliband. Let us park the impact of
:30:25. > :30:30.a Scottish referendum for a moment. We will come back to that in the
:30:31. > :30:34.weeks ahead. Sure. Is it possible for the Tories, they do very badly
:30:35. > :30:40.in the euro elections, let us say for the sake of argument, they can
:30:41. > :30:45.continue, is a strong economy enough to keep them in power then?
:30:46. > :30:53.Who knows? David Cameron has made his position more difficult by
:30:54. > :30:57.making an extraordinary announcement, which is that he would
:30:58. > :31:01.not serve as the leader of a coalition government that did not
:31:02. > :31:05.agree to a referendum. There is a fairly narrow set of results in
:31:06. > :31:09.which the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats might again be in
:31:10. > :31:13.coalition, but it is a possibility. For someone who presumably wants to
:31:14. > :31:16.be Prime Minister and keep his party in power to start ruling out
:31:17. > :31:21.circumstances in which he would share power with others... To put it
:31:22. > :31:24.at its most gentle, it is not a foregone conclusion that there will
:31:25. > :31:29.be an enormous swing to the Conservatives. But again, that is
:31:30. > :31:35.the influence of UKIP, when he says that. It has distorted all thinking.
:31:36. > :31:40.To go back to the point we raised with Christine Hamilton earlier,
:31:41. > :31:43.supposing UKIP at the next general election only get three percentage
:31:44. > :31:48.points of the vote, or something like that, but supposing two of
:31:49. > :31:52.those come from the Conservatives. Last time, the Conservatives got 37
:31:53. > :32:01.percentage points. An overall majority might need 40 percentage
:32:02. > :32:06.points. It is absolutely critical that these quite small parcels of
:32:07. > :32:10.votes that UKIP may be taking, it is critical where they came from in the
:32:11. > :32:14.first place, from the Tories, or from Labour and the Liberal
:32:15. > :32:19.Democrats. If the Tories shake off the Euro elections and the economy
:32:20. > :32:23.is recovering, and will recover all the way through to the election,
:32:24. > :32:27.that is the issue that matters, they will say. Is Mr Miliband's continued
:32:28. > :32:34.emphasis on the cost-of-living crisis enough as a Labour repast,
:32:35. > :32:40.or, as some people on the Labour side say, he needs to change his
:32:41. > :32:47.chin? I think we want to think that cost of the Bill Trump and improving
:32:48. > :32:53.economy. -- it will trump an improving economy. It is possible
:32:54. > :32:58.that the Conservatives will be looking at a vote free recovery.
:32:59. > :32:58.that the Conservatives will be does Mr Miliband have to change the
:32:59. > :33:10.message? does Mr Miliband have to change the
:33:11. > :33:13.person. In my view... That was inscrutable! This analysis about
:33:14. > :33:20.inequality being the big issue facing the nation and much of the
:33:21. > :33:23.developed world. Obviously, Ed Miliband is onto something. There
:33:24. > :33:29.are important books being written about it and published every week at
:33:30. > :33:31.the moment. But having a good academic analysis which resonates
:33:32. > :33:40.with people is not enough. You need a programme. That is why they
:33:41. > :33:43.brought in David Axelrod. He used inequality and the position of the
:33:44. > :33:46.super wealthy to rubbish Mitch Romney. They want to play a ruthless
:33:47. > :33:49.came about that because they no one of the weaknesses of the Tory part
:33:50. > :33:55.of the coalition is that people do not think they know how ordinary
:33:56. > :34:00.people live. Which is why Royal Mail privatisation was the issue he went
:34:01. > :34:04.on at by ministers questions. Very quickly, is this Cyril Smith story
:34:05. > :34:08.on at by ministers questions. Very causing the Lib Dems problems? I
:34:09. > :34:12.think at the moment it is so historical that it is not really
:34:13. > :34:16.being seen as the same set of problems they have dealt with
:34:17. > :34:23.recently in that awful area of sexual harassment. But they could do
:34:24. > :34:29.without it. Certainly. But it really is a long time ago. This problem
:34:30. > :34:34.will Leticia 's, local MPs, who are unchallengeable even by party
:34:35. > :34:36.leaders, it is an issue for any party, I think. OK, we will leave it
:34:37. > :34:41.there. Now, throughout history humiliation
:34:42. > :34:44.has often been used as a punishment. Whether it's wearing a dunce's cap,
:34:45. > :34:47.working on a chain gang or facing rotten tomatoes in the town square
:34:48. > :34:50.stocks, those deemed to have transgressed have been made to
:34:51. > :34:54.display their shame for all to see. You may think we live in more
:34:55. > :34:57.enlightened times, but you only have to watch a random selection of
:34:58. > :34:59.Michael Portillo's Greatest Train Journeys, or Diane Abbott's
:35:00. > :35:02.short-lived career as junior shadow health minister, to realise forcing
:35:03. > :35:06.someone to degrade themselves in public is still an especially cruel
:35:07. > :35:09.punishment. That's why we've decided to reopen old wounds and put
:35:10. > :35:24.humiliation in this week's Spotlight.
:35:25. > :35:33.The sound of silence turned into the sound of sirens for musician Paul
:35:34. > :35:39.Simon this week. His marriage had troubled waters after a blazing row
:35:40. > :35:44.with his wife landed them a charge of disorderly conduct and a
:35:45. > :35:48.humiliating court appearance. We had an argument, and it is very typical
:35:49. > :35:56.of us. Neither one of us has any fear. Humiliation comes in many
:35:57. > :35:59.forms. Just ask Wirral Cricket club. Sports fans were stumped when it
:36:00. > :36:06.emerged they had been bowled out for just three runs. Nigel Farage's
:36:07. > :36:11.decision not to stand in the Newark by-election was about avoiding a
:36:12. > :36:17.humiliating defeat. I will not be parachuted into a constituency have
:36:18. > :36:21.never visited. The outgoing MP, Patrick Mercer, took public disgrace
:36:22. > :36:26.on the chin after he was forced to resign following another cash for
:36:27. > :36:30.questions scandal. Max Clifford had nothing to say to the media after he
:36:31. > :36:34.became the first person convicted under Operation Yewtree. He was
:36:35. > :36:42.found guilty of indecent assaults on women and girls, deservedly shifting
:36:43. > :36:47.the humiliation away from the victims and onto Max Clifford
:36:48. > :36:53.himself. Shame, ignore me, and Millie eight, we know about that on
:36:54. > :37:01.this week, but how do you recover? Or are some defeats so humiliating
:37:02. > :37:09.there is just no coming back? There is no coming back! Henry blow fell,
:37:10. > :37:12.welcome to this week. For years, you followed the English cricket team so
:37:13. > :37:17.you know about defeat and humiliation. What is the difference?
:37:18. > :37:20.Defeat is something that happens. You lose and it has been a splendid
:37:21. > :37:28.game and no one worries very much. You go to Australia and lose five
:37:29. > :37:32.test matches. It is all right being beaten, but we were not competitive.
:37:33. > :37:38.That was a total humiliation everything went wrong. I arrived for
:37:39. > :37:41.the third test match in Perth and I only saw the England side for ten
:37:42. > :37:47.minutes to realise that in the dressing room the whole thing had
:37:48. > :37:51.fallen apart. It was sad to see. I have just come back from Australia,
:37:52. > :37:58.and you are right, they can't help us forget how much of a humiliation
:37:59. > :38:01.it was. Were you good at playing their bouncers? I reminded them how
:38:02. > :38:06.many medals we got in the Olympics and that shut them up. Defeat, you
:38:07. > :38:11.can bounce back from but humiliation is more difficult. When you are
:38:12. > :38:15.humiliated in the way that we were, and if a side is humiliated, they
:38:16. > :38:19.have to go back to the drawing board. This decision to sack Kevin
:38:20. > :38:24.Pietersen, which was not what everyone would have done, but I
:38:25. > :38:28.think everyone near to the side realised this was the best and right
:38:29. > :38:31.decision. Lots of people further away will doubt it but I do everyone
:38:32. > :38:33.near to the side realised this was the best and right decision. Lots of
:38:34. > :38:36.people further away will doubt it but IDSA that always happens when
:38:37. > :38:40.this sort of thing has to be done. But his influence was not good.
:38:41. > :38:42.Humiliation is all the more bitter, I would suggest, when it was not
:38:43. > :38:47.that long ago that we were thrashing the Aussies. If we had been losing
:38:48. > :38:54.again and again overall these years you would think that is what
:38:55. > :38:58.happens. Equally, we must remember that in about four years the circle
:38:59. > :39:03.will go half round again. I am sure this will happen. The talent is
:39:04. > :39:09.always there. It is a cyclical thing. We will find young players.
:39:10. > :39:15.It will take a bit of time. Alastair Cook is not the most scintillating
:39:16. > :39:19.of captaincy. He is very defensive. I think that is a problem. There is
:39:20. > :39:23.no one else, which is why they have decided to stay with him. He and
:39:24. > :39:28.Kevin Pietersen were not really communicating. If you are building a
:39:29. > :39:33.young side and your main player is at loggerheads with the captain... I
:39:34. > :39:37.am interested in what you say about the dressing room. It seems that
:39:38. > :39:42.unlike simple defeat, humiliation means you begin to fall apart. That
:39:43. > :39:48.was exactly what was happening in Australia. The coach was not talking
:39:49. > :39:54.to his leading batsmen. Alastair Cook was not talking to him by the
:39:55. > :39:58.end. What Kevin Pietersen did, at Headingley in 2012 when South Africa
:39:59. > :40:01.were playing England, Kevin Pietersen tweeted the South African
:40:02. > :40:07.dressing room saying that Andrew Strauss, who he changed next to in
:40:08. > :40:10.the pavilion, was a fallen man. He then tweeted the fast bowlers
:40:11. > :40:17.telling them how to get Andrew Strauss out. There is a word for
:40:18. > :40:21.that, it really is treacherous. Humiliation is the stuff of
:40:22. > :40:25.politics, isn't it? You have not spoken about the positive side of
:40:26. > :40:28.humiliation, which is that this is the president to renewal and
:40:29. > :40:39.rebuilding. Actually, you did in a way. I want to endorse that. Is this
:40:40. > :40:43.your own personal story? Yes, this is an autobiographical point but I
:40:44. > :40:48.can extend it more broadly. Someone like John Profumo. I don't know how
:40:49. > :40:52.many viewers remember, but the Profumo scandal was the greatest
:40:53. > :40:59.into ritual humiliation, and yet he spent the rest of his life gradually
:41:00. > :41:05.rebuilding. -- individual humiliation. But humiliation is not
:41:06. > :41:10.always a precursors to renewal. I was thinking about Suez, where Eden
:41:11. > :41:16.was humiliated and it was the end of a political -- particular phase of
:41:17. > :41:19.imperialism. I was also thinking about the general election that
:41:20. > :41:22.Edward Heath called, asking the British electorate who rules
:41:23. > :41:31.Britain. The electorate voted him out. I have to say how wonderful it
:41:32. > :41:35.is to hear Henry in real life. You are very kind. In any west Indian
:41:36. > :41:42.household in the cricket season, his voice will always be in the
:41:43. > :41:46.background. In 1981, Ian Botham was captain of England and we played
:41:47. > :41:52.Australia and lost the first test at Trent Bridge. He made two ducks at
:41:53. > :41:58.Lord's and resign before he was sacked. Michael Brearley captained
:41:59. > :42:00.the side in the next test at Leeds. Botham was playing and England
:42:01. > :42:07.looked as though they would be beaten by an innings and 20. Both
:42:08. > :42:14.made 149 not out and Australia had to get 129 and lost by 18 runs. So
:42:15. > :42:17.you had both coming back from the elation and Australia suffering a
:42:18. > :42:24.dramatic humiliation in the same game. -- Ian Botham. That is the joy
:42:25. > :42:30.of cricket. You have a book out. I have, called squeezing the Orange,
:42:31. > :42:37.which some people think if a self-indulgent title. Michael will
:42:38. > :42:41.like it. My philosophy in life is that I regard every day, truthfully,
:42:42. > :42:46.as an orange, and I think as much juice has to be squeezed out as
:42:47. > :42:50.possible. When you have got through that, you go to bed and sleep and
:42:51. > :42:54.you get another one the next day. We have squeezed out all of the time we
:42:55. > :42:57.have left on that existential point. That's your lot for tonight, folks,
:42:58. > :43:01.but not for us, because it's Jeremy Paxman's leaving do at Lou Lou's
:43:02. > :43:05.tonight, and we'll be asking the DJ to play the same broken record 14
:43:06. > :43:08.times in a row and expect a standing ovation. But we leave you tonight
:43:09. > :43:11.with something that isn't going anywhere fast, a Westminster beef
:43:12. > :43:13.that continues to rumble and the parliamentary equivalent of a
:43:14. > :43:17.drive-by shooting. It's not exactly Biggie and Tupac but you take what
:43:18. > :43:18.you can get in politics. Nighty-night, don't let Big John
:43:19. > :43:32.bite. him, Mr Speaker. Order. I haven't
:43:33. > :43:49.finished. In the sponsored to that question,
:43:50. > :43:53.the Prime Minister has finished, and he can take it from me that he has
:43:54. > :44:07.finished. -- in response to that question.
:44:08. > :44:16.# Everybody knew that you didn't give any lip to big John
:44:17. > :44:24.# Big bad John. # Ted, I... I'm not interested in
:44:25. > :44:28.coming to see Lady Gaga, sir. Part of the Big Bumper Comedy
:44:29. > :44:43.50th Birthday Weekend.