By-election Special

:00:00. > :00:08.Tonight on This Week, as the King of Spain abdicates,

:00:09. > :00:14.and the Queen opens Parliament, we raise our own Royal Standard.

:00:15. > :00:18.No chance of our Queen abdicating, but how far is the stability of the

:00:19. > :00:39.The Queen has much more staying power

:00:40. > :00:46.Her Maj even got a new set of wheels for this year's procession

:00:47. > :00:52.Andrew Rawnsley looks at the cabinet fight for the Tory crown.

:00:53. > :01:02.This week was supposed to be about the coalition's final lawmaking,

:01:03. > :01:05.instead it became consumed by the fight for succession to King David.

:01:06. > :01:09.And as the Queen and Prince Philip head to Normandy for the 70th

:01:10. > :01:13.War-baby and Shadows guitar legend Hank Marvin will be

:01:14. > :01:31.People say you should never meet your heroes, which is why I am so

:01:32. > :01:33.glad I'm appearing on This Week. We mean it, man, we are programmer

:01:34. > :01:46.crew. On the day of the D-Day anniversary,

:01:47. > :01:49.we bring you our version of the longest day, the longest night.

:01:50. > :01:52.Because not only do we have our regular hum-drum round-up and review

:01:53. > :01:55.of the week's political events, with all the deep insight and astute

:01:56. > :01:58.analysis you'd expect from those who've served at the very highest

:01:59. > :02:01.levels of government - and very lowest levels of the shadow

:02:02. > :02:05.public health team - but we also intend to force-feed you a veritable

:02:06. > :02:08.Miliband bacon sandwich of extended by-election coverage, as we power-on

:02:09. > :02:15.through to the small hours with live coverage,

:02:16. > :02:22.Some things are new to others as well, even if we try to hide it. As

:02:23. > :02:26.we power on into the small hours, with live coverage, debate and maybe

:02:27. > :02:31.even the results from the city that never sleeps, the Big Apple of these

:02:32. > :02:34.Midlands. Newark, Newark, so good, it then named you twice.

:02:35. > :02:36.Speaking of those vagabond shoes, longing to stray,

:02:37. > :02:40.I'm joined on the sofa tonight by two people whom money can't buy.

:02:41. > :02:43.Think of them as the Qatari World Cup bid and the Susannah Reid

:02:44. > :02:46.I speak, of course of #sadmanonatrain

:02:47. > :02:51.Michael Portillo, and, back by absolutely no public demand

:02:52. > :03:08.Your moment of the week? Well, on Saturday night, Mary Soames died.

:03:09. > :03:13.She was someone I had the privilege to have met several times. She was

:03:14. > :03:19.the last surviving child of Winston Churchill. She was born in 1922. She

:03:20. > :03:22.was, therefore, a young adult when Winston Churchill became Prime

:03:23. > :03:27.Minister in 1940. She assumed a certain number of duties with him.

:03:28. > :03:33.Remarkable to think that this woman had attended the pot stand

:03:34. > :03:36.conference in Berlin, the end of World War II, with Winston

:03:37. > :03:43.Churchill. By the way, she inherited his sense of public duty. She was a

:03:44. > :03:47.splendid woman in every way. Quite extraordinary to think that, until

:03:48. > :03:50.last Saturday, we have this very intimate link with Winston

:03:51. > :03:57.Churchill. Our greatest Prime Minister, our greatest moment in

:03:58. > :04:01.British history. Gone. It was actually a private meeting in

:04:02. > :04:09.Westminster, the title was Getting Under The Skin Of Ukip. And academic

:04:10. > :04:18.came and spoke. I don't necessarily think UKIP will be material to the

:04:19. > :04:21.results of the next election. But I realised that they gave some of my

:04:22. > :04:27.Labour colleagues in the North a scare. In places like the

:04:28. > :04:34.north-east, the Tees Valley, they outpolled in a lot of areas. The

:04:35. > :04:39.academic was talking about UKIP and characteristics. UKIP is a symptom

:04:40. > :04:44.of something. It is not the cause of anything. Even if we win next year,

:04:45. > :04:49.the Labour Party has to look at all of these people in former industrial

:04:50. > :04:54.areas. Nothing has replaced those industries and those people feel

:04:55. > :05:00.very left behind. We will see how the by-election goes as well. Before

:05:01. > :05:05.we get stuck into the usual drivel, exciting news. No, Michael is not

:05:06. > :05:09.going on a round the world train journey. In exactly five weeks,

:05:10. > :05:15.myself, Diana, Michael and his faithful manservant Fabiola will be

:05:16. > :05:20.loading up the this week transit van with the purple sofa and lunar in

:05:21. > :05:24.and taking the show on the road to Edinburgh, for a special Scottish

:05:25. > :05:28.edition of the show. For some stupid reason, we will be recording it in

:05:29. > :05:34.front of a live audience of programmer remains and Michael

:05:35. > :05:38.Portillo fan boys. -- This Week nerds. If you can get to Edinburgh

:05:39. > :05:41.and would like to join us, and if you come from Glasgow you will not

:05:42. > :05:47.need a passport, to witness the full horror of This Week, up close and

:05:48. > :05:55.personal, apply for tickets on the website. Bribes are readily

:05:56. > :05:57.acceptable, e-mail them to This Week, courtesy of Qatar.

:05:58. > :06:01.Now, it's been a busy week for royal toadies - sorry, correspondents.

:06:02. > :06:03.On Monday, the 76-year-old king of Spain announced he was

:06:04. > :06:07.abdicating after nearly 40 years on ?el trono? for a new generation,

:06:08. > :06:12.Well, when it comes to energy, it's hard to beat our own Queen,

:06:13. > :06:15.still going strong at 88, who opened Parliament

:06:16. > :06:24.Then she headed off to France for the D-Day ceremony.

:06:25. > :06:26.So what is the health of our monarchy?

:06:27. > :06:29.And to what extent does support for the institution actually come

:06:30. > :06:32.We turned to royal historian, Kate Williams.

:06:33. > :07:11.# Let me be your ruler # You can call me Queen bee. #

:07:12. > :07:17.When we think of the British monarchy, we think a royal weddings,

:07:18. > :07:23.jubilees, baby mania. It all seems pretty secure. Safe as palaces, in

:07:24. > :07:28.fact. We look at countries like Spain, whose moniker abdicated and a

:07:29. > :07:33.slight cloud, and feel rather smug. -- Monica. Our monarchy is in rude

:07:34. > :07:42.health. Underneath it all, it's much more

:07:43. > :07:47.fragile than that. All of this love is dependent on one individual one

:07:48. > :07:59.who is 88 and not getting any younger. The Queen looks set to be

:08:00. > :08:05.our longest reigning monarch, surpassing Victoria. Such is the

:08:06. > :08:09.love to her that most Republicans privately concede that there is not

:08:10. > :08:15.much point trying to up the recruitment while she's around.

:08:16. > :08:20.Monarchs need to in the favour of the people they rule over, and that

:08:21. > :08:25.support can swing when there is a new individual on that gilded yellow

:08:26. > :08:28.throne. Also, public support is much harder to keep in these days of

:08:29. > :08:35.social media, where nothing is hidden. The Queen is seen as

:08:36. > :08:39.thrifty, a war baby who never forgot the value of money. But the

:08:40. > :08:45.grandchildren are going to have to be careful about posh holidays on

:08:46. > :08:48.foreign islands and renovations to palaces.

:08:49. > :08:50.be careful about posh holidays on foreign islands and renovations One

:08:51. > :08:54.of the reasons why the King of Spain was so unpopular was because he was

:08:55. > :09:00.seen as out of touch, going on a lavish elephant hunt in Botswana

:09:01. > :09:03.when Spain was in recession. The Queen's real skill is seeming

:09:04. > :09:07.politically neutral, not meddling. That, and constant public

:09:08. > :09:11.appearances, is what people want to see from their monarchy. Charles

:09:12. > :09:15.will have to remember this. William is probably going to have to step it

:09:16. > :09:17.up if they want the consent of the people. It is actually precariously

:09:18. > :09:30.fragile. And back to our own little Castle

:09:31. > :09:39.pub. Welcome to the programme. It's a great pub. 25 years ago the

:09:40. > :09:43.monarchy was in crisis. Today it is more popular and stable than it has

:09:44. > :09:50.been for several generations, probably since the Second World War.

:09:51. > :09:57.Why? You are right, commensurate to when the Queen came to the throne.

:09:58. > :10:02.When news came through that Edmund Hillary had beaten Everest. It's

:10:03. > :10:07.partly due to her, her longevity, the respect she garnered. It's a

:10:08. > :10:11.complete contrast to what we saw in the 90s, with the succession of

:10:12. > :10:15.disasters, the marriage break-ups, the discussions about the Queen

:10:16. > :10:19.paying tax, the arguments over who would pay for Windsor Castle and the

:10:20. > :10:23.death of Princess Diana. Personality has a lot to do with it. The

:10:24. > :10:38.monarchy was at its most unpopular in modern times when Edward, Andrew,

:10:39. > :10:42.Fergie, they were regarded as upper-class brats. Charles was

:10:43. > :10:46.reviled for his treatment of Diana. Now they like the Queen, so the

:10:47. > :10:50.monarchy is popular again? I don't think it is personality. If we knew

:10:51. > :10:53.as much about the Queen and her private life as we knew about Prince

:10:54. > :10:57.Charles, I suspect it would be different. Do you think there are

:10:58. > :11:03.things about the Queen's private different. Do you think there are

:11:04. > :11:09.possibly tell you this on live television. Spilled the beans! She

:11:10. > :11:14.has the longevity, she has the mystique, because she spent most of

:11:15. > :11:18.her life in a media world when people kept things secret. When she

:11:19. > :11:22.passes away, I think there will be a big debate on the future of the

:11:23. > :11:25.monarchy. She also had that mystique when the royal family was very

:11:26. > :11:29.unpopular. I suggest it was because we saw a number of royal individuals

:11:30. > :11:34.that the country didn't like. It turned a number of people against

:11:35. > :11:38.the monarchy. I agree. I think it is worse than any of you are saying,

:11:39. > :11:43.somebody has to be consistent over 40, 50, 60 years. Take the King of

:11:44. > :11:47.Spain. He did some even more remarkable than the Queen has ever

:11:48. > :11:52.done, he had the idea, when the dictatorship came to an end, of

:11:53. > :11:56.bringing in a constitutional monarch and forced it through. When there

:11:57. > :12:06.was a coup in 1981 comment he went on television, he said, this coup

:12:07. > :12:10.must end. The heroism disappeared because, at the end, he went on this

:12:11. > :12:17.elephant hunt in Botswana, and also he has a son-in-law who is charged

:12:18. > :12:20.with some corrupt practices. Corruption is very corrosive. I

:12:21. > :12:24.think corruption is even worse than marital problems. Luckily, the

:12:25. > :12:28.British Royal family has not been touched by corruption in modern

:12:29. > :12:33.times. The Royal family in Spain, I know you know a lot about it, was

:12:34. > :12:36.very popular after what the King had done to save democracy, particularly

:12:37. > :12:41.since a lot of Spaniards thought he had been a creature of Franco and he

:12:42. > :12:47.turned out to be on the side of... He not only saved democracy, he

:12:48. > :12:51.actually invented, he independently thought to himself, that is not what

:12:52. > :12:55.I am going to do, I am going to bring in a constitutional monarchy.

:12:56. > :13:00.He risked attempts at assassination, attempts at being ousted by the

:13:01. > :13:04.forces. As time went on, he became less popular, and then maybe today

:13:05. > :13:10.even unpopular? And the monarchy in Spain today is not as popular as it

:13:11. > :13:13.was? No, although luckily the Crown Prince is very popular. I suspect

:13:14. > :13:19.the popularity of the monarchy will be restored. Remember, the monarchy

:13:20. > :13:23.was only restored with Juan Carlos. A previous generation of Spaniards,

:13:24. > :13:27.including my father, decided to get rid of them. The Queen is widely

:13:28. > :13:32.credited with putting the show back on the road after Diana's death. Is

:13:33. > :13:37.that accurate? I think what she end was the respect of the people,

:13:38. > :13:40.through this longevity. Particularly from not being seen in meddling in

:13:41. > :13:45.politics. The fact that they stay out of politics, that they are above

:13:46. > :13:49.it. For that reason, we did see this historic state visit earlier this

:13:50. > :13:53.year from the Irish President and his wife, who came to Britain and

:13:54. > :13:56.Gerry Adams came to dinner at Windsor Castle. That would not have

:13:57. > :14:06.been possible if she had been more outspoken in the 70s and 80s. So,

:14:07. > :14:09.she does function in this way. Some of us were joking, imagine if the

:14:10. > :14:15.Queen wrote her own speech. And another thing! It is always written

:14:16. > :14:21.for her. That Queen would have to say her thoughts? The terrible thing

:14:22. > :14:29.about the Queen is the consistency, she has never put a foot wrong. Some

:14:30. > :14:32.people around her have put the foot wrong, I know from some of the

:14:33. > :14:36.stories that we did in the Sunday Times. It's often been said that

:14:37. > :14:41.things could change when the Queen goes. I have heard that said. I'm

:14:42. > :14:46.beginning to think that may not be true. I think

:14:47. > :14:50.beginning to think that may not be true. I you'll see a big discussion

:14:51. > :14:57.about the future of the monarchy, as will be the case if she gives way to

:14:58. > :15:01.Prince Charles. Where the debate will start is the Commonwealth. We

:15:02. > :15:04.have seen this talked about when William and Kate were on their tour

:15:05. > :15:09.and the New Zealand Prime Minister said, we'll not have a New

:15:10. > :15:14.Zealand-born head of state while Elizabeth is on the throne. You say,

:15:15. > :15:18.that there are few people more passionate about the monarchy than

:15:19. > :15:24.people in the Commonwealth. What about Jamaica. It is higher and

:15:25. > :15:29.higher. That is where the debate will start and not Britain. I was in

:15:30. > :15:38.Australia when Kate and William were there. I was a republican myself. I

:15:39. > :15:44.was teasing my Australian republican friends they had lost it. Won't want

:15:45. > :15:51.to come to your party now. It fell before William and... I would

:15:52. > :15:56.suggest this is kind of a new crisis for the monarchy when the Queen

:15:57. > :16:00.goes. For republicans it is sad because William and Kate have given

:16:01. > :16:05.it their passport for the 21st century. So long as they can show

:16:06. > :16:10.consistency. I think you are entirely right, they have to make

:16:11. > :16:17.sure they are as devoted to their public duties as the Queen has done.

:16:18. > :16:26.There's no difficulty in that. Constant public duty... A life

:16:27. > :16:31.sentence. Prince Charles who was deeply

:16:32. > :16:36.unpopular during his separation with Diana and then in the aftermath as

:16:37. > :16:40.well and Camilla was deeply unpopular as well, even that has

:16:41. > :16:44.changed. I think he's gained a lot. Of course the young people know

:16:45. > :16:51.don't remember 1997. They were born after that. This is a whole new

:16:52. > :16:54.constituency. I think, he got a lot of popularity through William and

:16:55. > :17:00.Harry, who are much loved, as you say, much loved in the Commonwealth

:17:01. > :17:04.and here. He looks like a very good father to them which has been part

:17:05. > :17:10.of the recovery. The official line is Camilla will not be crowned

:17:11. > :17:19.Queen. That may change when we come to a coronation. It looks like it

:17:20. > :17:24.will survive. It is for the British people. You are British. Not just a

:17:25. > :17:28.humble backbench MP. Is there going to be a vote?

:17:29. > :17:31.That is the thing about monarchy. You know, there is a

:17:32. > :17:40.well-established point of view that the mon nor ki, the people remains a

:17:41. > :17:46.linchpin. Of the class system S that your view? It would be hard if you

:17:47. > :17:52.had any knowledge of British history to demure from that view. We need a

:17:53. > :17:55.dictionariry. The question for the British people is how to find the

:17:56. > :17:59.alternative. In Australia there was the vote. It was say, either you

:18:00. > :18:02.have the monarchy or we in the Parliament choose you an

:18:03. > :18:11.alternative. Basically we have to say... That is always a strong

:18:12. > :18:17.argument. Will bit a celebrity. That is what people worry about. Snoo

:18:18. > :18:20.That was the -- That was the view in Australia. The idea of having not

:18:21. > :18:27.just a Prime Minister but a President as a politician, they

:18:28. > :18:33.didn't want. We will be saved from President

:18:34. > :18:37.Boris Johnson! You see what I have to put up with

:18:38. > :18:42.most weeks! It is late. Given how much you have

:18:43. > :18:48.been drinking you are feeling peckish. If you Hank Marvin for some

:18:49. > :18:53.Hank Marvin - you are in luck because waiting impatiently in the

:18:54. > :18:57.Shadows Hank Marvin is here to satisfy all your Blue Nun moments.

:18:58. > :19:01.If you are sad enough to want to join news Edinburgh on the evening

:19:02. > :19:05.of July 10th for a special life audience of this show -- live

:19:06. > :19:10.audience of this show, go to our website and tell us why you deserve

:19:11. > :19:14.to be invited. If you cannot imagine anything worse, I am sure you will

:19:15. > :19:20.let us know on Twitter and Facebook. Now, the Queen paraded in her brand

:19:21. > :19:26.new carriage for the state opening of carriage. The body work is made

:19:27. > :19:32.up of the Mary Rose. Didn't get very fair and fragments of Isaac Newton's

:19:33. > :19:36.apple true. Just the usual bits and bobs any of would have in the

:19:37. > :19:41.garage. When Andrew Rawnsley heard about it, he wanted his own carriage

:19:42. > :19:45.all to himself. It may be a left-wing paper, but they like that

:19:46. > :20:00.in the Observer. Here he is with his round-up of the political week.

:20:01. > :20:08.Amazing what people chuck away these days! Uneasy lies the head that

:20:09. > :20:19.wears the crown, or will not be in the case of the abbey kating king --

:20:20. > :20:25.abdicating king Karloff and Eager. E king Carlos. Now his reign in Spain

:20:26. > :20:33.comes to a sad, scandal-splattered end.

:20:34. > :20:37.Abdication is currently a bit of a fashion among the more elderly

:20:38. > :20:43.European monarchs, but not likely one to catch on here. Why should Liz

:20:44. > :20:51.want to quit? After all royaling has its perks. There are worse ways of

:20:52. > :21:06.getting to work than this! STEP TOE AND SON MUSIC.

:21:07. > :21:15.A new state coach this was the 60th time that Her Majesty has trotted

:21:16. > :21:19.down to Parliament. There to be beyoued, reading out the words put

:21:20. > :21:24.into her mouth by one of her many Prime Ministers. Oh, Phillip, why do

:21:25. > :21:28.they make me read out this rot? Legislation will be brought forward

:21:29. > :21:34.to give those who have saved discretion over the use of their

:21:35. > :21:36.retirement funds. 88-year-old pensioner, Liz, shows

:21:37. > :21:46.retirement funds. 88-year-old wanting to of throw in her sector.

:21:47. > :21:50.The wait goes on, Charles! From the Government's point of view,

:21:51. > :21:54.the idea was to present a legislative programme just busy

:21:55. > :21:58.enough to argue that the coalition still has change things to do before

:21:59. > :22:04.the election. To count ter accusation that this is a -- counter

:22:05. > :22:09.the allegation that this is a zombie Parliament. Talking of the living

:22:10. > :22:12.dead! # I walk with a zombie

:22:13. > :22:20.# # Last

:22:21. > :22:28.Lord knows who dreamt up surreal photo opportunity! It was to

:22:29. > :22:35.end talk that Vince Cable has been plotting to steal the tarnished

:22:36. > :22:44.throne of Nick the Unsteady. No, me neither!

:22:45. > :22:54.MUSIC For my money t most vibrant

:22:55. > :22:59.contribution came from Portsmouth Tory, for one thing it was very

:23:00. > :23:04.funny. This about advice given to her by the Royal Navy.

:23:05. > :23:08.Fascinating though it was, I felt the lecture and practical

:23:09. > :23:11.demonstration on how to of care for your penis and testicles in the

:23:12. > :23:15.field, failed to appreciate that some of us attending had been issued

:23:16. > :23:23.with the incorrect... LAUGHTER

:23:24. > :23:28.That is surely a first, the word "Penis" raising its head. Ed

:23:29. > :23:33.Miliband and David Cameron waved their slow goes at each other, to

:23:34. > :23:38.the palace, please! It is wrong to pass on an

:23:39. > :23:42.irresponsible burden of debt to our children. It is right that people

:23:43. > :23:48.should keep more of the money they earn. The best route out of poverty

:23:49. > :23:52.is work. A banking bill to support small business. A community bill to

:23:53. > :23:58.devolve power. An immigration bill to stop workers being undercut. In

:23:59. > :24:02.the wake of awful results in the local and Euro-elections, Number Ten

:24:03. > :24:06.was relieved that the backbench peasants were not revolting and

:24:07. > :24:12.things were remaining calm in Tory-land. Then May and Gove went

:24:13. > :24:18.public with that row between them about who was to blame for failing

:24:19. > :24:23.public with that row between them to tackle Islamist extremism in

:24:24. > :24:28.schools. Jierks she is doing a lovely -- She is doing a lovely job.

:24:29. > :24:32.I hope you enjoy the rest of the day.

:24:33. > :24:41.No, no, absolutely not. We take a very firm line.

:24:42. > :24:47.Now quarrels between ministers are not exactly unusual. It is the

:24:48. > :24:54.snarling, spitting viciousness of this one which has angered Number

:24:55. > :25:01.Ten and transfixed everyone else. Could the victorial be because both

:25:02. > :25:10.might by thinking who might succeed. King Dave, the Hopping Mad - you

:25:11. > :25:16.bet! Finally, the former king - Tony has

:25:17. > :25:21.ruled himself out of becoming the next President of the European

:25:22. > :25:25.Council. I am not a candidate, don't get my position mixed up with, this

:25:26. > :25:29.that will not happen! No, he's not. That is a slightly different thing

:25:30. > :25:34.from saying that he never wanted it. Of course he did. In some ways it is

:25:35. > :25:39.a petty he will not get it. A pro-European who understands that

:25:40. > :25:45.Europe needs reform could be good in the job. Instead, Tony will have to

:25:46. > :25:53.continue trapsing the world, collecting money that makes a king's

:25:54. > :26:03.ran some look like small change. -- ransom look like small change.

:26:04. > :26:12.Prince Andrew Rawnsley there in the London carriage.

:26:13. > :26:18.Karloff and Eager and The Ostler Horse and Carriage Company, we are

:26:19. > :26:26.like an American TV show, suits by, tie by... Anyway, we can go over to

:26:27. > :26:36.Alex Forsyth, she is sponsored by the New yark chamber of -- Newark

:26:37. > :26:41.Chamber of Commerce. The Conservatives are defending a

:26:42. > :26:45.16,000-plus majority. UKIP, not Labour, is regarded as the main

:26:46. > :26:49.challenger. Are we expecting a Tory win?

:26:50. > :26:54.Do you know who, Andrew, anybody who has ever worn a blue rosette has

:26:55. > :27:00.been sent here in the last few weeks. We are told 1,000 activists

:27:01. > :27:04.were here today, campaigning and my colleagues who are much more

:27:05. > :27:07.experienced than I in these type of things have said they have never

:27:08. > :27:11.seen the like of it. Four visits from the Prime Minister himself.

:27:12. > :27:15.With all that hype they'll want to hold this seat. It is fair to say

:27:16. > :27:20.that the feeling here is the talk is how much of a dent UKIP can make in

:27:21. > :27:25.that majority of 16,000, as opposed to whether or not they will take the

:27:26. > :27:27.seat off them I would be pretty spectacular if they did. The

:27:28. > :27:30.Conservatives are trying to manage expectations to some degree. They

:27:31. > :27:35.don't want to be seen as complacent. They say they are taking nothing for

:27:36. > :27:40.granted, which is why they have put all this effort into this. Not least

:27:41. > :27:46.of course if Nigel Farage got that foot into Parliament, that would be

:27:47. > :27:50.pretty spectacular. A personal question, personal for me, can you

:27:51. > :27:55.tell us when the result will be announced? On about my second glass

:27:56. > :28:01.of wine - I don't know is the short answer. Somewhere between 3am-4am.

:28:02. > :28:07.It could go on way beyond that. What! We could be going on until

:28:08. > :28:10.Breakfast television. The issue for the Liberal Democrats is whether or

:28:11. > :28:16.not they lose their deposit? If you look at the recent polls that

:28:17. > :28:19.is in question. They have lost their deposits in eight of the

:28:20. > :28:24.by-elections we've had since the coalition was formed in 2010.

:28:25. > :28:29.Dismaltimes for thesmt the word "beleaguered" has been used a lot.

:28:30. > :28:34.They don't expect to do much better here tonight. The big question will

:28:35. > :28:38.be whether or not they hold on to the deposit. It would be bad news

:28:39. > :28:45.for them if they didn't. They polled 20% of the vote in 2010. It would be

:28:46. > :28:52.a big comedown to lose their deposit. We hope if you are on the

:28:53. > :28:59.wine it is Blue Nun. Speaking of the Lib Demes, Miranda joins us. I don't

:29:00. > :29:05.wish to intrude... Let's come to this public spat, as it became

:29:06. > :29:11.between Michael Gove and ther reis a May. I thought May was the

:29:12. > :29:18.aggressor. The letter that came to light was written by her. It was

:29:19. > :29:22.written in trenchen about terms. I don't remember writing in such terms

:29:23. > :29:27.to another minister. A series of questions that were spat out. Then

:29:28. > :29:32.clearly the letter was leaked. Then it appeared on the Home Office

:29:33. > :29:37.website. At 1am! This was not just a row that leaked

:29:38. > :29:40.out because some journalist had cleverly found their way into the

:29:41. > :29:42.story. This was a massive piece of aggression. I think the Prime

:29:43. > :29:59.Minister ought to reflex on that. disagreement, who do you side with?

:30:00. > :30:03.Probably a little bit with the Home Office, as opposed to the Department

:30:04. > :30:07.for Education. I'm afraid to say I don't have a great deal of respect

:30:08. > :30:13.for either department at an official level. I don't think either of these

:30:14. > :30:18.are stellar departments. We are dealing here with an extraordinarily

:30:19. > :30:21.serious issue. I would hope that really high calibre people can be

:30:22. > :30:23.brought to bear on it, whether they are in the Home Office or the

:30:24. > :30:27.Department for Education. In fact, they need to be in both departments

:30:28. > :30:31.because it is partly an issue of Home Office control, policing and

:30:32. > :30:37.intelligence, and partly eight job making sure we know what is going on

:30:38. > :30:40.in schools. I hope somehow that these terrible questions, like why

:30:41. > :30:45.was nothing done about this, who knew what when? They don't have to

:30:46. > :30:48.be asked again in the future. Do you agree with what some commentators

:30:49. > :30:52.have been saying, that actually this is about playing for position? It is

:30:53. > :30:57.about playing for a Tory leadership. Theresa May has her eyes

:30:58. > :31:02.on the prize, particularly if it goes pear shaped for Mr Cameron in

:31:03. > :31:06.May of next year. Mr Gove, we understand, is a big supporter of

:31:07. > :31:12.George Osborne, who could be the main rival? I don't entirely take

:31:13. > :31:16.that interpretation. I think it is largely about the issues. I have a

:31:17. > :31:18.feeling that Theresa May is genuinely angry about this, thinks

:31:19. > :31:23.something terrible has been happening in schools for a long

:31:24. > :31:30.time. So, I understand that it is good for journalist, to put it in

:31:31. > :31:34.those terms. Honestly, I think this has been counter-productive for her

:31:35. > :31:37.in terms of her leadership hopes. A lot of senior Tories I spoke to were

:31:38. > :31:43.not happy, the aggression and the clear leaking of the latter, putting

:31:44. > :31:49.it on the website. What is your take on this? I think it is about the

:31:50. > :31:54.letter, but there is a sense of a war going on for the camera in

:31:55. > :31:58.succession. That is part of it. I worked in the Home Office as a

:31:59. > :32:09.graduate trainee. Historically, it is a graveyard, and she has come out

:32:10. > :32:11.of it looking better than any Home Secretary I can remember. I want to

:32:12. > :32:22.get onto the really important issue. How often do Nick Clegg and

:32:23. > :32:31.Vince Cable share a pint in a pub, at 11am? I would imagine not very

:32:32. > :32:35.often. You might be right. I think that was clear from the expressions

:32:36. > :32:38.on everybody's face during that rather unfortunate photo

:32:39. > :32:56.opportunity, to demonstrate unity, to demonstrate their devotion to the

:32:57. > :33:00.pub trade. Which numpty thought? Which ones agreed to do it! It was

:33:01. > :33:09.beginning to Dyke down, we knew things were not great, but it ceased

:33:10. > :33:15.to have legs as a story. No, it was given legs by people at the heart of

:33:16. > :33:18.the story. A gift to every caption competition in Fleet Street. Leaving

:33:19. > :33:23.all of the journalists is outside to get soaked in the rain was not a way

:33:24. > :33:29.to India. Who remembers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown eating ice cream

:33:30. > :33:33.together? But that was in an election campaign. People do very

:33:34. > :33:38.stupid things, didn't Margaret Thatcher cradle a sheep? May be

:33:39. > :33:45.Theresa May and Michael Gove need to share a pint or some ice cream and

:33:46. > :33:49.demonstrate unity. Because of Vince Cable's flat-footed mesh and that of

:33:50. > :33:51.his henchmen, Nick Clegg has got away with a disastrous electoral

:33:52. > :33:57.result and is securing the leadership. I would pretty much

:33:58. > :34:02.agree with that. Within that week, any sort of Vince Cable campaign

:34:03. > :34:06.became completely disabled, so it's now gone away. Not to say the whole

:34:07. > :34:12.issue is resolved in terms of the strategy. Doesn't it come back onto

:34:13. > :34:15.the agenda again? I'm not saying he's going to be kicked out. Haven't

:34:16. > :34:21.you got the worst of all possible worlds? You will stay as leader, but

:34:22. > :34:26.the issue continues to rumble on. It could do, but I think the summer

:34:27. > :34:31.will be dominated with issues to do with the Labour Party, the Labour

:34:32. > :34:34.leadership strategy. But the question has not gone away at all.

:34:35. > :34:40.There will be rumblings and soul-searching. All four parties are

:34:41. > :34:44.going to fight the next election with the present leaders. All of

:34:45. > :34:50.them have issues about strategy as well. I think that's right. If we

:34:51. > :34:54.all agree, it's almost certainly wrong! You must be encouraged by

:34:55. > :34:59.your old mate Tony Blair, President of Europe? I thought you were going

:35:00. > :35:10.to say I should be encouraged with him agreeing with me about not

:35:11. > :35:13.eating into the gutter with UKIP on Europe. And immigration. It is not

:35:14. > :35:17.going to be President of Europe, I don't think that the other European

:35:18. > :35:22.leaders would buy it. Would he be the right person? Theoretically,

:35:23. > :35:26.would he be a good person to be President of... What would he be

:35:27. > :35:32.President of, the commission, not the council? No, he would be far too

:35:33. > :35:37.powerful a figure. British Prime Minister for ten years, a global

:35:38. > :35:46.figure, still somewhat in his prime. For these reasons he is very well

:35:47. > :35:51.suited to date, no serving Prime Minister wants him to be President.

:35:52. > :35:57.A lot of people have taken interest in what he had to say on heel

:35:58. > :36:01.reform, the response to UKIP. He made some interesting interventions.

:36:02. > :36:05.We were talking in earlier about Theresa May's potential as a Tory

:36:06. > :36:10.leader. There is a lot of admiration for Theresa May amongst Blairites,

:36:11. > :36:14.actually. If we do come to a conversation about the Tory

:36:15. > :36:19.leadership, she might have broader appeal, which might counteract any

:36:20. > :36:26.feeling... Well, not Blairites, as if they are a subsection of

:36:27. > :36:30.humanity. He's not going to become President. He now regards himself as

:36:31. > :36:34.someone with something to contribute to the British debate, because that

:36:35. > :36:38.has not been true for a while? I think he year and is to be a

:36:39. > :36:42.political player. He lost office, in political terms, when he was

:36:43. > :36:45.relatively young. Even know he is making this money in America, he

:36:46. > :36:50.yearns for the one thing he cannot have, to be a player on the British

:36:51. > :37:00.political scene. Well, we all do that. Are there informal talks

:37:01. > :37:03.between Lib Dems and Labour? Because everybody was caught on the hop last

:37:04. > :37:05.time, people are determined to be prepared this time in all three

:37:06. > :37:16.parties. So, that's a yes. According to Lembit Opik, former

:37:17. > :37:23.ladies shoe salesman, I think that is true, reality TV show and Lib Dem

:37:24. > :37:27.MP, former, Nick Clegg has lost credibility in the eyes of his party

:37:28. > :37:31.and the country. Oh, cheeky! How would he know? In the face of

:37:32. > :37:37.disastrous performances, it takes guts for anybody to admit they are

:37:38. > :37:41.still a knicker throwing Cleggmaniac. As he marches his

:37:42. > :37:45.hapless platoon towards the sound of electoral gunfire and almost certain

:37:46. > :37:49.political death, we decided it was time to pay respects to those we

:37:50. > :37:54.admire so much and put heroes in this week's Spotlight.

:37:55. > :37:57.Don't let the Clark Kent specs fool you, Hank Marvin is

:37:58. > :38:06.Inspiring a generation of musicians with his famous Fender, Hank was

:38:07. > :38:14.We've all been in a heroes mood this week.

:38:15. > :38:17.Her Maj announced a new Heroism Bill in her Queen's Speech, to give legal

:38:18. > :38:22.protection to good Samaritans who intervene in public disputes.

:38:23. > :38:27.Where a person acts heroically, responsibly or for the benefit

:38:28. > :38:33.of others, this will be taken into account by the courts.

:38:34. > :38:37.But how fitting the bill should be introduced

:38:38. > :38:42.It's 70 years since the Normandy landings and a time to salute fallen

:38:43. > :38:50.Sadly, we may never be able to salute the tank man of Tiananmen.

:38:51. > :38:55.25 years on from the bloody Chinese massacre, the identity of this

:38:56. > :39:02.Yet it doesn't diminish the power of his actions.

:39:03. > :39:05.Whereas the identity of Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl is now

:39:06. > :39:13.The American soldier held in Afghan captivity for years had

:39:14. > :39:15.his hero's welcome cancelled yesterday, amid accusations he had

:39:16. > :39:25.Strength, bravery or just a kick-ass riff?

:39:26. > :39:38.And do we all just need someone to look up to?

:39:39. > :39:45.The man he probably has guitar hero written on his passport is with us

:39:46. > :39:49.now. Great to see you. Do we all need heroes? I think so. I think we

:39:50. > :39:54.need people to look up to two motivators to do something better in

:39:55. > :40:01.our lives. It doesn't matter in what capacity, whether it be music,

:40:02. > :40:05.politics, whatever. We need someone that we think has set the standard.

:40:06. > :40:10.Can we achieve that? Not always, but at least it gives us something to

:40:11. > :40:15.aim for. Something that we wish we could do ourselves? I think that's

:40:16. > :40:19.true. You said you should never meet your heroes, but here you are

:40:20. > :40:25.meeting Diane and Michael, you have broken your rule. Why? Because we

:40:26. > :40:29.are likely to be disappointed? I think, in some cases, we are. We can

:40:30. > :40:34.meet people that we think are absolutely wonderful in their

:40:35. > :40:38.capacity as, let's say, an entertainer, for example. We meet

:40:39. > :40:45.them, but as a person, they are a pain in the backside. They are rude,

:40:46. > :40:51.arrogant. That is a disappointment. Often completely true of movie

:40:52. > :40:52.stars. Over the years, I have... Years ago we did a thing in

:40:53. > :40:57.Florida, we met Years ago we did a thing in

:40:58. > :41:04.a very charming man, very generous in his conversation. And

:41:05. > :41:08.a very charming man, very generous someone in Paris who did not say

:41:09. > :41:13.much, but looked great. You became a hero to a lot of people,

:41:14. > :41:19.particularly a lot of aspiring musicians, because you were the

:41:20. > :41:21.famous guitar player from this country. A lot of people thought, if

:41:22. > :41:25.famous guitar player from this he can do that, you don't have to be

:41:26. > :41:32.the lead singer to become famous, you can be the guitarist? You can be

:41:33. > :41:39.spotty, skinny and wear glasses. And not move very much? But you inspired

:41:40. > :41:45.a lot of people. Kids were practising their guitar. Did you

:41:46. > :41:51.know that at the time? No. We knew that it was having an impact. Often,

:41:52. > :41:55.in shows, we would see four guys. One would be wearing glasses.

:41:56. > :42:03.Seriously. Bleached hair, wearing the same clothes. It was only much

:42:04. > :42:07.later on, probably the late 60s, early 70s, when I bumped into a few

:42:08. > :42:12.people, by then quite famous in their own right, who owned up. They

:42:13. > :42:16.came out of the closet and said, you are why I started playing guitar.

:42:17. > :42:23.Brian May, Peter Townsend, people like that. All of the famous names

:42:24. > :42:27.of the 60s? The interesting thing to me, we all start, I think, by

:42:28. > :42:31.copying the people that we admire. That is part of the learning

:42:32. > :42:36.process. Some of us continue to copy. But the important thing is to

:42:37. > :42:41.find your own voice, your own style. I was fortunate in doing

:42:42. > :42:46.that, probably by accident, more than anything else. And a very

:42:47. > :42:51.distinctive sound. I think so. Brian May, Jeff Beck, stream the

:42:52. > :42:55.distinctive. They found their own voice. The young man in front of the

:42:56. > :43:01.tank in Tiananmen Square, regarded as a hero, or a very brave person.

:43:02. > :43:04.The mystique of his heroism is added to by the fact we don't know what

:43:05. > :43:10.has happened to him. You don't have to know who a hero is. It's so

:43:11. > :43:13.moving to see that footage and know nothing about him. At that moment,

:43:14. > :43:17.he could have been crushed. The tragedy is, in the next few hours,

:43:18. > :43:22.hundreds and possibly thousands of people were killed. I think of

:43:23. > :43:27.heroes as being people who kind of know what to do when the most

:43:28. > :43:31.difficult moment comes. One example was the King of Spain, when there

:43:32. > :43:37.was that coup going on, on television, in his uniform. I

:43:38. > :43:43.mentioned to a chill. When Churchill -- Churchill. If the French Navy

:43:44. > :43:47.falls into German hands, it will be a disaster. He knows that it has to

:43:48. > :43:52.be either handed to the British or son. He sinks the French Navy. To

:43:53. > :43:57.know what to do in a situation like that is extraordinary. Sometimes

:43:58. > :44:00.ordinary people can step up and be heroin. After 9/11,

:44:01. > :44:03.ordinary people can step up and be those firemen, working-class New

:44:04. > :44:09.Yorkers, who went into the building to save people, they were genuine

:44:10. > :44:14.heroes. Sometimes heroism comes out when ordinary people find themselves

:44:15. > :44:17.in extraordinary situations. When we talked about heroes in the sense we

:44:18. > :44:21.are discussing, they are not heroes in that way. They are people who do

:44:22. > :44:27.something we might admire and maybe want to emulate, obtain that

:44:28. > :44:31.standard. They are not heroes in a way that you are talking about, the

:44:32. > :44:36.real heroes. Who was your childhood hero? One of them died this week, my

:44:37. > :44:52.Angela. -- Mayo Angelo. Bbc.co.uk/saturdaykitchen There are

:44:53. > :44:57.many people I admired and wanted to you later. No one in particular.

:44:58. > :45:08.Apart from my wife, of course, a real hero, putting up with me. What

:45:09. > :45:17.are you up to now? real hero, putting up with me. What

:45:18. > :45:22.are you up to I have a new album. It has come in at Number 10 in the

:45:23. > :45:25.charts and we are promoting it. It is the sound of summer. We are

:45:26. > :45:29.grateful for your time tonight. Now, unusually for us, that's NOT

:45:30. > :45:32.all your lot for tonight, folks... Because with the Newark by-election

:45:33. > :45:34.providing more excitment than David Cameron eating a bacon

:45:35. > :45:37.sandwich with a silver spoon, there Instead, I'm going to sit tight here

:45:38. > :45:43.in the studio and in a moment I'll be joined by four politicians who've

:45:44. > :45:47.drawn their respective party's short We'll be chewing over all

:45:48. > :45:49.the by-election issues and staying So, if you like your politics

:45:50. > :45:54.by-election style, stick with us. Michael and Diane,

:45:55. > :46:17.best you leave now and let It started with a staying, posing as

:46:18. > :46:22.fake lobbyists, the BBC secretly recorded Patrick Mercer appearing to

:46:23. > :46:27.offer himself for sale, in breach of the rules. One year later and just

:46:28. > :46:33.before he was to be served with a six-month ban, he resigned. I am

:46:34. > :46:39.ashamed. I will do what I can to put it right. This is for the

:46:40. > :46:45.constituency of Newark, I will resign my seat in Nottinghamshire,

:46:46. > :46:46.and I hope that my successor, who has been

:46:47. > :46:51.and I hope that my successor, who has well and carefully chosen, will

:46:52. > :46:55.be the Conservative candidate. There were 12 hours of speculation about

:46:56. > :47:02.the UKIP candidate, would it be Nigel Farage? The answer was no. I

:47:03. > :47:08.do not come from there. I do not want to be parachuted in. I have no

:47:09. > :47:14.connections there will stop instead, UKIP selected Roger Helmer who had

:47:15. > :47:19.previously courted controversy with comments about homosexuality and

:47:20. > :47:24.date rape. The party hopes to capitalise on their victory in the

:47:25. > :47:32.European elections. We have our second MEP... He opened up a shop in

:47:33. > :47:40.the area. Conservatives trooped to the area as well. Every Tory MP was

:47:41. > :47:45.told to visit at least three times to support Robert Jenrick who had

:47:46. > :47:52.worked on the business side of an auction house. The Prime Minister

:47:53. > :47:57.dropped in four times, famously accompanied on one visit by Boris

:47:58. > :48:06.Johnson. They were keen to investigate the baked goods in the

:48:07. > :48:10.area. The Labour candidate tried to get some attention in what was

:48:11. > :48:15.becoming a two horse race in the eyes of the media. The Liberal

:48:16. > :48:20.Democrat candidate managed to summon some activists not sobbing about the

:48:21. > :48:23.state of their party. It was all happening in place steeped in

:48:24. > :48:27.history, especially the English Civil War. This is where the former

:48:28. > :48:33.Prime Minister William Gladstone was first elected as an MP, which gave

:48:34. > :48:38.me an idea. Who is your favourite prime from history? William

:48:39. > :48:49.Gladstone was fantastic. -- Prime Minister. He did not stay here long.

:48:50. > :48:54.I do not think I have a favourite. All of them have had flaws. My

:48:55. > :48:58.favourite politician was Paddy Ashdown who should have been Prime

:48:59. > :49:04.Minister. It has to be Winston Churchill. He made a difference in

:49:05. > :49:10.the last century that probably no other Prime Minister has made. I

:49:11. > :49:15.think it would be Clement Attlee. After seeing a world that was

:49:16. > :49:20.fighting he realised he had to rebuild the country, I was proud of

:49:21. > :49:29.the NHS. You did not say David Cameron. He has been supportive. We

:49:30. > :49:35.will not see Prime Minister Nigel Farage are we? I would not be too

:49:36. > :49:43.sure. I think Gordon Brown, Tony Blair, James Callaghan did great

:49:44. > :49:47.things. I popped into this shop where they had revived an ancient

:49:48. > :49:55.tradition, by-election bonds in party colours. More baked goods --

:49:56. > :50:07.buns. Did you know the by-election was

:50:08. > :50:20.happening. I do not take much notice. Is there a by-election

:50:21. > :50:30.fever? Not really. Welcome to view from the News Channel. -- viewers.

:50:31. > :50:35.Voters in the Nottinghamshire constituency went to the polls today

:50:36. > :50:41.to pick a successor to Patrick Mercer who resigned after being in

:50:42. > :50:44.the scandal. We are expecting a result around 3am, so a little while

:50:45. > :50:49.to go and that is only provided there are no recounts. With us for

:50:50. > :50:51.to go and that is only provided the long march we have a caffeine

:50:52. > :51:01.fuelled panel. the long march we have a caffeine

:51:02. > :51:08.us. Diane James from UKIP joins us. She fought the Eastleigh

:51:09. > :51:11.by-election. She is now an MEP. We have the Conservative Business

:51:12. > :51:16.Minister Matt Hancock and the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats,

:51:17. > :51:22.Malcolm Bruce. He is threatening to leave before the end of the

:51:23. > :51:30.programme. We will drug him with extra strong coffee. So, welcome,

:51:31. > :51:41.who is going to win? We will wait and see! Give us a prediction!

:51:42. > :51:47.who is going to win? We will wait polls are fairly solid for us. We

:51:48. > :51:51.have worked extremely hard. We have had a superb candidate in Robert

:51:52. > :51:58.Jenrick. The Tory MPs have done a lot of work. All of that I know,

:51:59. > :52:04.what I do not know is who will win. You do not know. Who do you think

:52:05. > :52:07.will win? I could not possibly say. You are here to say something! Will

:52:08. > :52:10.UKIP win? I would love to see that. You are here to say something! Will

:52:11. > :52:14.Do you think they will You are here to say something! Will

:52:15. > :52:19.have a very good chance. You are here to say something! Will

:52:20. > :52:23.horse race. This is a contest between the Conservatives and UKIP.

:52:24. > :52:29.Labour is hear about the Liberal Democrats,

:52:30. > :52:35.but I do not think they will have a nice evening. Is that a story

:52:36. > :52:36.tonight, Labour is not in contention. This is

:52:37. > :52:43.tonight, Labour is not in the government, the kind of seat

:52:44. > :52:47.tonight, Labour is not in would sweep. They have won election

:52:48. > :52:51.tonight, Labour is not in 's where the Tories had huge

:52:52. > :52:56.majorities. I would 's where the Tories had huge

:52:57. > :53:05.Tories to romp home in a seat like Newark. It is a different seat from

:53:06. > :53:11.Tories to romp home in a seat like 1997. It is the 44th safest Tory

:53:12. > :53:16.seat. I know it is a by-election, but we won by-elections in the

:53:17. > :53:20.run-up to the 1997 election in more marginal places like Dudley. There

:53:21. > :53:23.run-up to the 1997 election in more are other areas where the Liberal

:53:24. > :53:26.Democrats were taking seats from the Tories, like Eastleigh. The first

:53:27. > :53:32.by-election in Eastleigh... If this Tories, like Eastleigh. The first

:53:33. > :53:41.was the run-up to 1997, you would win Newark tonight. We did not win

:53:42. > :53:43.seats like that back then. The only question for the Liberal Democrats

:53:44. > :53:50.is whether you hold onto your deposit or not. We realise we will

:53:51. > :53:52.be squeezed. We know the Conservatives put out a letter

:53:53. > :53:57.saying to Liberal Democrat voters, you're not going to win, help us

:53:58. > :54:02.beat UKIP. That is appealing to liberal voters, it may work. I would

:54:03. > :54:09.like to remind people, Labour lost their deposit in Eastleigh. We have

:54:10. > :54:13.done it to other people and sometimes it happens to you. It is

:54:14. > :54:21.difficult for other people to get the look in. We have lots to talk

:54:22. > :54:27.about. Let us go there are now an set the scene. Accounts are mainly

:54:28. > :54:31.held in these by-elections in anonymous looking sports halls. But

:54:32. > :54:39.Newark and share would counsel have pulled out the stops will stop --

:54:40. > :54:47.Sherwood. Our correspondent is spending the night in the sumptuous

:54:48. > :54:56.Kelham Hall. Tell us about it. They said they had laid it on especially

:54:57. > :55:01.for you. Just a fascinating fact about this majestic looking

:55:02. > :55:08.building. This is were Charles the first surrendered during the English

:55:09. > :55:13.Civil War. There has been talk about the parliamentarians descending on

:55:14. > :55:19.Newark in the past few weeks, particularly the Conservatives. They

:55:20. > :55:23.had 1000 activists on the ground and the prime minister visited. They

:55:24. > :55:30.held nothing back. Labour said they threw everything at this. They are

:55:31. > :55:35.not being complacent, they are quick to say that this is not a sure

:55:36. > :55:41.thing. The feeling is that they will probably hold. People are saying it

:55:42. > :55:48.is too early to call. Do we have any idea when we will get a result. I do

:55:49. > :55:55.not see much counting going on? Accounting is going on. I can assure

:55:56. > :56:03.you. It will be a long process will stop -- the counting. I am hoping to

:56:04. > :56:11.get some sleep before dawn. Certainly here, a lot of people are

:56:12. > :56:15.looking at the verification process. A few parties have made some

:56:16. > :56:22.suggestions that this could be the Tories in first place, but UKIP will

:56:23. > :56:27.come second, followed by Labour. We have heard from one source that the

:56:28. > :56:34.Liberal Democrat vote will be demolished. It is interesting,

:56:35. > :56:39.Labour are saying that their vote may have been affected by UKIP. They

:56:40. > :56:46.are saying that the Conservatives have been asking people to vote for

:56:47. > :56:51.them to try and block UKIP, so they are taking Labour and Liberal

:56:52. > :56:55.Democrat votes to block UKIP. So, tactical voting going on. A mark of

:56:56. > :57:02.how much the political landscape has changed. Good to hear they are

:57:03. > :57:09.getting their excuses in first! Do not dare ahead to the hotel yet! Let

:57:10. > :57:14.us look at the starting position for the four main parties based on the

:57:15. > :57:19.results from the 2010 election. As you can see, the Conservatives got

:57:20. > :57:24.more than 20,000 votes, they secured a very healthy majority of more than

:57:25. > :57:30.16,000 over Labour. You will note how small UKIP's vote was. I think

:57:31. > :57:35.we can expect that number to go up significantly tonight. Here is the

:57:36. > :57:44.percentage share from four years ago. The Conservatives got more than

:57:45. > :57:50.half the votes, whereas UKIP got under 4% of the vote. You can see

:57:51. > :57:56.the swing required is 15.8% for Labour to take the seat. The polling

:57:57. > :58:01.suggests that the bigger threat tonight will come from the party

:58:02. > :58:11.that was fourth last time around. Let us join our expert, John

:58:12. > :58:18.Curtice, we had chained him to a desk until we get a result. Just to

:58:19. > :58:23.pick up a point that our Labour friend was making, saying that this

:58:24. > :58:33.would be a difficult seat for Labour under normal circumstances, but a

:58:34. > :58:36.swing of 15% is not unheard of. The truth is that they should be on

:58:37. > :58:42.tenterhooks as to whether they will win the seat. That swing that they

:58:43. > :58:47.would need, it is less than the Labour Party achieved in Norwich,

:58:48. > :58:54.less than the Conservatives achieved in Norwich in the last Parliament,

:58:55. > :58:59.less than Labour achieved in Dudley just before they won the 1997

:59:00. > :59:02.election. When oppositions looked as though they are on course for

:59:03. > :59:08.government, the kind of swing that is required for Labour to win has

:59:09. > :59:15.been relatively common. To that extent, we have to ask ourselves,

:59:16. > :59:23.why is it we are not asking the question, could Labour win this? It

:59:24. > :59:27.is all of a piece, as a result of the recent elections, Labour do not

:59:28. > :59:31.have the enthusiasm and depth of support in the electorate that make

:59:32. > :59:39.them look like an alternative government. Coming to the

:59:40. > :59:45.Conservatives who hold the seat and UKIP, the challenger, if we look at

:59:46. > :59:52.the EEC by-election result, how do we use that to judge the performance

:59:53. > :59:56.of UKIP tonight? Eastleigh is an interesting benchmark. It is the

:59:57. > :00:04.best UKIP performance in any parliamentary by-election. They got

:00:05. > :00:08.just under 28% of the vote. I think, in truth, if UKIP get more than they

:00:09. > :00:13.got in Eastleigh and given that unlike Eastleigh, they do not have

:00:14. > :00:18.much of a record of local activity in Newark until the last couple of

:00:19. > :00:23.years, I think they will be able to claim a moral victory and I think we

:00:24. > :00:28.should remember that the claims if UKIP do not win this constituency,

:00:29. > :00:34.it would be a big reverse, they are exaggerated. They need a 25% swing

:00:35. > :00:38.to win and there have only been eight by-election since 1945 were

:00:39. > :00:44.the swing has been of that size or bigger and the last time that

:00:45. > :00:49.happened was in Bradford when George Galloway won. The truth is, that

:00:50. > :00:53.kind of scale of swing that UKIP need to win the seat is so

:00:54. > :00:57.spectacular, that in truth, I do not think we should presume that if UKIP

:00:58. > :01:01.fail to get it, that is an indication they have performed

:01:02. > :01:05.badly. If they get the highest vote share in any by-election tonight,

:01:06. > :01:15.buy out polling Eastleigh, they should be satisfied.

:01:16. > :01:21.Let's assume that UKIP don't win but come a second, what share of vote

:01:22. > :01:27.would be decent for them? If UKIP get 30% of the vote, they could

:01:28. > :01:32.regard it as a remarkable result. John Curtis, don't go away, thank

:01:33. > :01:38.you for that. Diane James, what do you say to that, 30% of the vote? I

:01:39. > :01:43.would be delighted. I would like more. But it would take away the

:01:44. > :01:49.best by-election result for UKIP. Remind me of the share? Just below

:01:50. > :01:53.28% at Eastleigh and 3% off the Liberal Democrats. But we were

:01:54. > :01:58.talking 1,500 votes. But you set the benchmark. You came

:01:59. > :02:02.a strong second in Eastleigh. So Roger Helmer, he has to come a very

:02:03. > :02:08.strong second and even stronger second? I would be delighted to hand

:02:09. > :02:12.that Mantell over to him. Would you have a better chance of

:02:13. > :02:17.coming a strong second, if that is what you do, we don't know, you

:02:18. > :02:23.could win, what if you had picked a stronger candidate? It is like

:02:24. > :02:28.saying that the Conservatives should have put up Boris Johnson into the

:02:29. > :02:32.seat. We went through a process. We are happy with Roger Helmer. He is

:02:33. > :02:38.well-known in that part of the world. Defected to UKIP a few years

:02:39. > :02:43.back from Conservative. He comes with heavy baggage and

:02:44. > :02:48.views, controversial views from in some ways a by-gone age? There are a

:02:49. > :02:52.lot of people that share the views. He is not ashamed of them. The

:02:53. > :02:59.insult then is to the voters if you are saying because he has made a

:03:00. > :03:03.point that another, sorry, others agree with that point that others

:03:04. > :03:08.should be criticising. Do you share the views on funding

:03:09. > :03:11.gay cure therapy? I am not sure that he said that.

:03:12. > :03:17.We say to the person who wants to change from a man to a woman, or

:03:18. > :03:23.vice versa, to do that on the NHS. We say to this guy, that is wicked

:03:24. > :03:27.you cannot think like that? I don't think he said that. I will be happy

:03:28. > :03:34.to be quoted. We have the quote from the Daily

:03:35. > :03:40.Mail? It has not been challenged? I think it has. His press officer has.

:03:41. > :03:46.His? Ours. Do you agree with Roger Helmer that

:03:47. > :03:49.some rape victims bear responsibility for what happened to

:03:50. > :03:52.them? Those are Roger Helmer's views. Not mine. They are not my

:03:53. > :03:57.views. OK.

:03:58. > :04:02.Is it not true to say, as the spin doctors have been making out, if you

:04:03. > :04:07.stop UKIP from winning tonight that you stop UKIP in its tracks, that is

:04:08. > :04:12.not true, is it? Well, I think that a victory for the Conservatives will

:04:13. > :04:18.be the first time we have won a by-election as a governing party in

:04:19. > :04:21.25 years. Being able to win a by-election when you are in

:04:22. > :04:25.Government, when there are protest votes about. That is a big

:04:26. > :04:29.achievement. When you are in a desert, a cup of

:04:30. > :04:34.water is grateful. But it does not stop UKIP in its tracks? Of course,

:04:35. > :04:37.UKIP have been saying that they are going to win. Roger Helmer said he

:04:38. > :04:44.thought he would win. When? Diane got close to it now.

:04:45. > :04:50.Even before then, this weekend, Nigel Farage said he would turn what

:04:51. > :04:54.was an earthquake into... You are confusing the European elections.

:04:55. > :04:59.No, after the European elections, he said that was an earthquake, now

:05:00. > :05:03.something even greater. There is a difference. UKIP have

:05:04. > :05:08.been saying that they are going to win. I think that the first

:05:09. > :05:12.by-election victory by Conservatives in Government for 25 years will be a

:05:13. > :05:19.big milestone if we get there. So, job done. That is it. The UKIP

:05:20. > :05:23.insurgent is over? No, we have 11 months to the general election. That

:05:24. > :05:31.is what the eyes will turn to. We have to ensure we get as many people

:05:32. > :05:35.voting for news the general election as possible.

:05:36. > :05:39.If UKIP win. It is obviously a political earthquake if they take

:05:40. > :05:44.the by-election. We discuss the consequences of that if it is

:05:45. > :05:49.looking likely but if they come a decent second, where does that leave

:05:50. > :05:53.UKIP now in what has become in England, joining Scotland, Wales and

:05:54. > :05:59.Northern Ireland, as a four-party system? It is a multiparty system.

:06:00. > :06:05.But there is a big mountain to climb to become credible as a Westminster

:06:06. > :06:09.party. They have not an MP elected. Come a general election they will

:06:10. > :06:14.have a difficult job finding seats where they can win against that

:06:15. > :06:18.background. I think that we are having a torrid time. I admit it.

:06:19. > :06:22.But we have the strongest recovery in the western world that the

:06:23. > :06:27.coalition has built. Which the Liberal Democrats have been a

:06:28. > :06:32.radical part of. You saw the article in the talking talking saying this

:06:33. > :06:36.is the most radical governments we have had, and the Liberal Democrats

:06:37. > :06:41.have been a big part of that reform. We believe that people recognising

:06:42. > :06:45.and looking at the general election, to calculate whether to throw it

:06:46. > :06:52.away with letting UKIP in, or indeed, even Labour. I think there

:06:53. > :07:00.is a lot to fight for. I understand but if UKIP win

:07:01. > :07:06.tonight, it stops the UKIP insurgent in its tracks? UKIP have to prove

:07:07. > :07:09.themselves. Winning a by-election is one way, not winning one sets them

:07:10. > :07:13.back. They still have no voice in Westminster. I am not sure how much

:07:14. > :07:16.of a voice in the European Parliament, given the record they

:07:17. > :07:20.have. A lot more MEPs than you? But they

:07:21. > :07:25.have not turned up in the past and done all sorts of strange things.

:07:26. > :07:30.They have a job to do to show that they are serious and rather than to

:07:31. > :07:35.some extent a party that is having a laugh at British politics and a lot

:07:36. > :07:39.of the characters are characters. A lot of people like that, they

:07:40. > :07:42.think it makes the establishment look foolish.

:07:43. > :07:48.You used to have a few character that got you to win by-elections.

:07:49. > :07:51.Some you may not prefer to mention? I would not go there, that is more

:07:52. > :07:55.difficult. But they were characters? When I say

:07:56. > :08:01.characters, I am a talking about people who say things outrageously,

:08:02. > :08:05.an then are disowned by the party, or the party is happy to let the

:08:06. > :08:10.echo of what they say, to say if you like the views, Diane said it

:08:11. > :08:15.before, people like the views, I find distasteful but then you can

:08:16. > :08:22.vote UKIP. They are playing a subtle and not a very pleasant game.

:08:23. > :08:28.To the point John Ashworth, you heard John Curtis reel off a host of

:08:29. > :08:33.seats you did win, and tonight you are not in contention? I don't think

:08:34. > :08:44.we are. I am disappointed... Why not? This is a rock solid Tory seat.

:08:45. > :08:48.John Curtis reeled off rock solid Tory seats you won in by-elections

:08:49. > :08:53.with sings similar to what is needed tonight? But John did not mention

:08:54. > :08:59.the Corby by-election that we took from the Tories. That was the sort

:09:00. > :09:03.of seat that decided the general election. When you say this is the

:09:04. > :09:07.first victory, you should have won that seat. That is the seat on

:09:08. > :09:14.general election night that everyone is looking at. With the

:09:15. > :09:19.swingometers. Corby is a marginal we won from Labour in 2010 and lost a

:09:20. > :09:24.couple of years later. But this is decided in general

:09:25. > :09:29.elections. In a by-election there is more protesting. It is harder to

:09:30. > :09:34.keep. The fact is that if any party is aiming to win a general election

:09:35. > :09:38.in less than a year's time, not being able to come second in a

:09:39. > :09:45.by-election is a poor state of affairs.

:09:46. > :09:50.There are by-elections up to 2010, like Sedgefield and Ealing, you came

:09:51. > :09:55.third it was a disappointing set of results in those seats. So it shows

:09:56. > :10:00.that a party can come third in seats and still go on to form a government

:10:01. > :10:07.at the general election. There are 11 months to go... You are not

:10:08. > :10:11.winning. I hope that we do win. We don't know.

:10:12. > :10:17.I hope we will. If we do it will be the first victory in government by

:10:18. > :10:21.Conservatives in a by-election. You have made that point. It is not

:10:22. > :10:25.a huge record to be proud of? The other point is this: At the start of

:10:26. > :10:31.the campaign, whether the by-election was called, the bookies

:10:32. > :10:37.had Labour at 3-1, 3-1. They thought Labour could be in for a shout.

:10:38. > :10:42.Now... John has all but admitted that Labour are going to come third.

:10:43. > :10:47.A terrible performance. If you are hoping to win the general

:10:48. > :10:51.election on a 35% strategy, of getting 35% of the vote, Europe does

:10:52. > :10:56.not feature for you? We are not hoping to win the general election

:10:57. > :11:02.on a 35% strategy. You are not? No. We want to win a

:11:03. > :11:09.majority at the next general election. So looking at the local

:11:10. > :11:15.government results, topping the poll in Harrow, south Swindon... You went

:11:16. > :11:20.backwards there! No. If you count, aggregate the votes we won the south

:11:21. > :11:27.Swindon seats like in Harlow. Like in Harlow... We even won in

:11:28. > :11:33.Basingstoke, Maria Miller's seat and Enfield south gate. These are the

:11:34. > :11:38.seats to decide the next general election. The local elections in

:11:39. > :11:42.which Labour went backwards in key places like in Swindon.

:11:43. > :11:48.No we did not. And won in Sunderland and comes third in a by-election.

:11:49. > :11:53.But he does not have to win Newark to get an overall majority at the

:11:54. > :11:59.next election? Labour have to put in a good showing. Labour won Newark in

:12:00. > :12:04.97 with small changes... Big changes.

:12:05. > :12:11.It was the changes to the boundaries that were substantialment There were

:12:12. > :12:16.changes but they won the seat in 97. It was a different seat. They won

:12:17. > :12:21.the seat in 87. If you think this argument is bad

:12:22. > :12:26.enough. You have to see what the poor constituencies of Newark have

:12:27. > :12:31.had to go through. Inundated by politicians. Activists camped out

:12:32. > :12:34.with reports of romantic relationships starting among the

:12:35. > :12:38.young Conservatives canvassing. Well, that is the purpose of the

:12:39. > :12:44.young Conservatives. It is good to see them going back to their roots.

:12:45. > :12:48.They have called it Road Trip 2015. Whatever turns you on. But the

:12:49. > :12:55.political anoraks will be in good company. Nosh Newark is no stranger

:12:56. > :13:02.to eccentrics. You may not know Newark play as role

:13:03. > :13:06.in the UK's space programme. Self-styled rocket man, Frank Shaman

:13:07. > :13:10.chose the town for his latest launch.

:13:11. > :13:14.# I think it's gonna be a long, long time... But what comes up, must come

:13:15. > :13:22.down. Oh, my God... It is not just the PM

:13:23. > :13:24.parachuted into Newark recently. Base journal pers have been taking

:13:25. > :13:27.advantage of scaffolding Base journal pers have been taking

:13:28. > :13:35.parish church. The town's Base journal pers have been taking

:13:36. > :13:38.marketplace has been where politicians have been going since

:13:39. > :13:43.Patrick Mercer's fall from grace. Market day, the corn farmers hold a

:13:44. > :13:48.grain exchange at the 14th century pub.

:13:49. > :13:53.The constituency covers the town of Subtle, dominated by Minster. The

:13:54. > :13:59.world-famous Bramley cooking apples originated from here. And if they

:14:00. > :14:05.need it, you can sweeten them up, thanks to the British sugar plant in

:14:06. > :14:12.Newark. Farming and food a vital ingredient in the town's prosperity.

:14:13. > :14:18.But the biggest employer is the giant's Knowhoe national

:14:19. > :14:25.distribution centre. The transport links are vital. London, 1. 30

:14:26. > :14:31.minutes away by train. Longer by boat and during the English Civil

:14:32. > :14:35.War, as an important royalist stronghold, the castle here came

:14:36. > :14:45.under attack. In recent years, the only attacks have been from the

:14:46. > :14:49.rising waters of the River Trent. Famous sons of Newark include Ian

:14:50. > :14:53.Burden, Famous sons of Newark include Ian

:14:54. > :15:01.the Human League. And near to the other market town of Bingeham, also

:15:02. > :15:07.in the questions, lies the former RAF Newton, we recently hosted the

:15:08. > :15:08.popular TV show, Robot Wars. The teams saw candidates battling it out

:15:09. > :15:19.for the top prize. None of the candidates are anything

:15:20. > :15:31.like robots, of course, The turnout is 53%. There will be

:15:32. > :15:38.interesting to see if that is of help to the Conservatives or UKIP.

:15:39. > :15:40.53% is the turnout that we are hearing. We are joined from

:15:41. > :15:43.Bristol. And we're joined now from Bristol

:15:44. > :15:53.by the Conservative backbencher Why is your party struggling to hold

:15:54. > :15:59.onto a seat which has 16,000 majority? We are going to win the

:16:00. > :16:05.seat, apparently, which is exciting. That is the cause for celebration.

:16:06. > :16:15.It is joyous news that we should win. We are used to swings against

:16:16. > :16:20.us. All of that. We are going to win a by-election, it is to reflect news

:16:21. > :16:27.and all Conservatives should rejoice. Do you agree with Matt

:16:28. > :16:34.Hancock? If you have seen of the UKIP challenge, you have seen off

:16:35. > :16:44.the UKIP challenge? -- off. It is even better news, I think that UKIP

:16:45. > :16:50.are trying to unseat us, and if they fail, I think that bodes well. That

:16:51. > :16:55.is an interesting point, but it does not answer my question, have you

:16:56. > :17:02.stopped the UKIP insurgency in its tracks if you win? I think UKIP is

:17:03. > :17:06.beyond that point. This is important for the Conservatives, to win a

:17:07. > :17:10.by-election is good for morale, positioning for the General

:17:11. > :17:15.Election, but UKIP has become a very powerful force in British politics.

:17:16. > :17:23.It has a strong base in the European Parliament, it has a strong base in

:17:24. > :17:28.local government and I do not think one by-election allows us to dismiss

:17:29. > :17:32.UKIP for the future. Even if the Conservatives hold Newark tonight,

:17:33. > :17:39.you would still like to see is some kind of pact between your party and

:17:40. > :17:42.UKIP? As it happens, if we do win, I think it is almost the ideal

:17:43. > :17:48.opportunity to do it, because we would be doing it from a position of

:17:49. > :17:53.strength. It would be an opportunity for a generous offer to UKIP, rather

:17:54. > :17:57.than appearing to be in difficulties. Victory for us makes

:17:58. > :18:05.the packed more attractive. What do you say to that, Matt Hancock? We

:18:06. > :18:11.are not going to have a packed. We run as a party. Knocking on doors in

:18:12. > :18:17.Newark as I have been, I found lots of people who were preparing to vote

:18:18. > :18:24.for us because they did not want to have a UKIP MP. Even if you win

:18:25. > :18:31.tonight, you will have lost thousands of voters to UKIP. We need

:18:32. > :18:35.to win voters from Labour as well. In the General Election, from here

:18:36. > :18:42.until the election in 11 months time, we need to persuade UKIP

:18:43. > :18:46.voters that the only way they can get a referendum on Europe is by

:18:47. > :18:51.voting Conservative and the only way that they can see off and Ed

:18:52. > :18:54.Miliband Premiership is voting Conservative and persuade Labour

:18:55. > :18:58.voters that are long-term economic plan is working. We have got to make

:18:59. > :19:07.sure we make those arguments, rather than jumping into bed with another

:19:08. > :19:14.party, if you excuse the phrase. What to you make to the point by

:19:15. > :19:19.Jacob Rees-Mogg, if you have seen off the UKIP challenge in Europe,

:19:20. > :19:24.now would be the time, because you have shown that UKIP cannot sweep

:19:25. > :19:27.all before, now would be the time to think about doing deals in

:19:28. > :19:32.constituencies, if you do not, you could lose them. If I thought it was

:19:33. > :19:37.a good idea, there is an argument about timing. Since I do not, there

:19:38. > :19:41.is no argument about timing. The question is, over the next 11

:19:42. > :19:47.months, how do we persuade people who voted UKIP to vote Conservative,

:19:48. > :19:52.because we are the people who can keep Ed Miliband out. What do you

:19:53. > :19:59.say to that? You cannot get your idea to fly! Indeed, it does not

:20:00. > :20:05.seem to be flying at the moment, I think the electoral arithmetic is

:20:06. > :20:09.very favourable to it. I think it is infinitely preferable to do

:20:10. > :20:28.pre-Alexion packs rather than post election deals -- pre-Alexion

:20:29. > :20:31.deals. -- pre-election. I prefer attempt to deal. There is so much

:20:32. > :20:36.common ground between the Conservatives and UKIP and for us to

:20:37. > :20:45.fight against each other could become self defeating --

:20:46. > :20:50.pre-election. Diane James would you be interested in exploring the idea

:20:51. > :20:56.of a deal with the Conservatives? Myself, personally, no. I have no

:20:57. > :21:01.interest. I do not trust David Cameron and the Conservatives. We

:21:02. > :21:05.have got real problems with national debt, we have a whole series of

:21:06. > :21:09.issues that have been covered up, there was an awful lot of bad news

:21:10. > :21:14.which the Conservatives chose, during the European election results

:21:15. > :21:20.to hide... You both want a referendum on Europe. We want a

:21:21. > :21:24.referendum on Europe and we believe we can deliver a referendum on

:21:25. > :21:28.Europe ultimately and we have made that promise and commitment. We have

:21:29. > :21:35.not made an empty pledge and we have not... Just one minute. Let me

:21:36. > :21:40.finish, Andrew, please. We have not got a leader who said one thing when

:21:41. > :21:47.it suits him to get votes in the General Election, only to go back on

:21:48. > :21:54.that pledge later. Explain to me how UKIP delivers a referendum. If we

:21:55. > :21:59.get anywhere between 30 and 60 MPs in the General Election... There are

:22:00. > :22:03.people saying those sort of figures... Do not ask me if it is

:22:04. > :22:07.plausible, I am giving you what I am hearing, we could hold the balance

:22:08. > :22:15.of power and Nigel Farage made that point recently. When Nigel Friars

:22:16. > :22:19.recent -- Nigel Farage said about a referendum, then why are you

:22:20. > :22:22.opposing the Conservatives come he said that he was convinced that

:22:23. > :22:28.Labour would propose a referendum. If they do not, then if you really

:22:29. > :22:32.want a referendum, clearly you have to vote Conservative, because we are

:22:33. > :22:37.the only party offering it and can deliver it in government. Why have

:22:38. > :22:40.Conservative voters walked away from the Conservative Party? They have

:22:41. > :22:44.walked away because they no longer believe in what David Cameron says.

:22:45. > :22:49.They do not believe he will deliver on his pledge, he has not delivered

:22:50. > :22:54.on others and from that perspective, he has lost credibility in their

:22:55. > :22:59.eyes. Nigel Farage and UKIP as that trust and credibility and if that

:23:00. > :23:06.was not there, why have we done so well in the European elections and

:23:07. > :23:16.local elections? That is politicians and third -- politician's and serve.

:23:17. > :23:29.You did not answer the question. -- answer. You do not agree on the

:23:30. > :23:36.deal. Let me go back to Jacob Rees-Mogg. You have been patient. Do

:23:37. > :23:42.you think that the UKIP threat is so great that they could end up in the

:23:43. > :23:47.next election with up to 50 seats? Is that credible? No, that is not.

:23:48. > :23:51.They will not get that many. They are highly unlikely to get any

:23:52. > :23:55.seats, but they are likely to stop Conservatives winning seats and

:23:56. > :23:59.therefore we have a mutually assured destruction, they can stop us

:24:00. > :24:03.delivering on the pledge to have a referendum. The pledge to have a

:24:04. > :24:06.referendum it is seared in the hearts of Conservatives at the

:24:07. > :24:21.moment. There is no question that the Conservative government would

:24:22. > :24:24.not have a referendum. The argument that there was not one on this barn

:24:25. > :24:26.is false. That dreadful treaty had been ratified before the

:24:27. > :24:28.Conservatives were in a position to have a referendum. That is always

:24:29. > :24:45.ignored. David Cameron did not break his promise on that treaty --

:24:46. > :24:48.Lisbon. The Lisbon Treaty had not been ratified and the Czech Republic

:24:49. > :24:55.have not ratified it until about nine months before the General

:24:56. > :25:05.Election. David Cameron knew all of that. Were you made to go to Newark

:25:06. > :25:21.to campaign in the selection? I love it. I went out in 1986, in Fulham. I

:25:22. > :25:29.always go when I possibly can. What was the mood like? I found lots of

:25:30. > :25:35.staunch Conservatives. I was hugely encouraged. I was knocking on doors

:25:36. > :25:41.all along a street. It was not preprepared. It was hugely

:25:42. > :25:45.encouraging. There was people who had been Conservative all their

:25:46. > :25:54.life, I met some UKIP supporters. I did not meet any socialists. Did you

:25:55. > :25:59.meet any Labour people? No Labour people, no socialist, no Liberal

:26:00. > :26:07.Democrats. Do not leave. Malcolm Bruce. This bizarre argument about

:26:08. > :26:12.the referendum, they want a referendum so we can leave the

:26:13. > :26:16.European Union. Jacob probably wants to leave the European Union. I think

:26:17. > :26:22.the Conservatives are getting into a situation where they are being tried

:26:23. > :26:30.by UKIP into sleepwalking UK out of the European Union. There is a case

:26:31. > :26:34.for reform. Our view is clear that our political and economic interests

:26:35. > :26:40.are in the European Union. It needs reform. UKIP are clear. I do not

:26:41. > :26:45.think people know what they are voting for. David Cameron seems to

:26:46. > :26:51.say that he wants a referendum, but I suspect Jacob would be voting

:26:52. > :26:57.against it. Let us ask him. Even if the David Cameron came back from

:26:58. > :27:02.Brussels with a decent set of powers repatriates id to Westminster, would

:27:03. > :27:05.you still vote to leave? The touchstone for me would be

:27:06. > :27:09.immigration, if we get the removal of the free movement of people and

:27:10. > :27:13.have control of our own borders, then I could see myself voting to

:27:14. > :27:20.stay in. If we do not get it, I would vote to leave. I am voting to

:27:21. > :27:25.have the referendum and I want to have renegotiation and judge it on

:27:26. > :27:29.the basis of that. Would it be possible that if the renegotiation

:27:30. > :27:33.was not successful enough, but you did not get enough power repatriates

:27:34. > :27:42.it, that you could conceive of voting to leave? I am an optimist

:27:43. > :27:48.and I think we will succeed. If you did not get it and politics is all

:27:49. > :27:53.about hypothetical questions, could you conceive of voting to leave?

:27:54. > :27:58.Politics is about dealing what -- with what is in front of you. We are

:27:59. > :28:03.assuming you will win the next election! We are proposing to have

:28:04. > :28:10.the referendum and renegotiation and I hope that happens. If it is not

:28:11. > :28:15.successful enough, would you consider to vote the way Jacob

:28:16. > :28:22.Rees-Mogg is indicating? We want that renegotiation to be successful,

:28:23. > :28:27.but the whole point of the referendum... It is my answer. It is

:28:28. > :28:32.clear. The clear answer is we are pledge to have a referendum, we are

:28:33. > :28:36.united and absolute about that and then we will renegotiate and I will

:28:37. > :28:42.look at what the renegotiation looks like. We need to let you go, you are

:28:43. > :28:49.looking lonely there in Bristol. Everyone else has gone home. If the

:28:50. > :28:55.Conservatives do hold on to Newark, can we put it down to the Jacob

:28:56. > :29:03.Rees-Mogg factor? That you knocked on and off doors to swing it? I

:29:04. > :29:06.think Central office organise their best campaign in years. It was

:29:07. > :29:10.incredibly efficient and select and they deserve to be thanked and

:29:11. > :29:18.credited. Was that because they were nervous? Possibly, but that is as

:29:19. > :29:23.good as it is -- and incentive as anything will stop Tories believe in

:29:24. > :29:50.incentives. We will give you an incentive to get to bed. Let us go

:29:51. > :30:03.back to John Curtice in our newsroom. He has been listing, AE --

:30:04. > :30:11.he is smiling. -- listening. I want to ask you about a deal in our party

:30:12. > :30:18.political and electoral system. What is your view? The problem about this

:30:19. > :30:21.is whether it would be possible for the Conservatives to deliver

:30:22. > :30:26.something that UKIP might find attractive. The truth is that if the

:30:27. > :30:32.Conservatives stand down in places where they are relatively weak and

:30:33. > :30:35.let UKIP have a free run, those places are usually safe Labour

:30:36. > :30:42.constituencies and even if the Conservatives stand down, UKIP do

:30:43. > :30:46.not have much chance of winning. If the Conservatives are going to give

:30:47. > :30:52.them up a prospect of winning constituencies, you have to find

:30:53. > :30:55.either of the incumbent MPs in seats that the Conservatives either

:30:56. > :30:59.currently hold or hope to when who are going to be willing to stand

:31:00. > :31:04.down and allow UKIP to have a free run. I figure would be difficult to

:31:05. > :31:09.persuade Conservative associations to do it. Even if you could find one

:31:10. > :31:13.or two macro, that would not be enough UKIP. Given what you have

:31:14. > :31:19.just heard, UKIP could only possibly contemplate such a pact if that were

:31:20. > :31:23.often scale that would ensure that the Conservatives did not have an

:31:24. > :31:27.overall majority and that they would have to rely on UKIP to remain in

:31:28. > :31:34.power and that they would then have the bargaining power to ensure the

:31:35. > :31:43.Conservative Party would not do a trick of mild renegotiation and tell

:31:44. > :31:47.the public it is fine. And then ask the Conservative Party,

:31:48. > :31:52.does it regret having campaigned so hard against the alternative vote,

:31:53. > :31:58.as in a sense the problem it is fating, if Jacob Rees-Mogg is right,

:31:59. > :32:03.is that the UKIP voters, they presume, they vote one for UKIP but

:32:04. > :32:06.probably two for the Conservatives with the alternative vote, while the

:32:07. > :32:13.Conservatives campaign hard against it, it was before the UKIP were a

:32:14. > :32:19.serious threat. I wonder now if they wish with the benefit of hindsight,

:32:20. > :32:23.they had not campaigned so hard and if we were in the position in 2015,

:32:24. > :32:27.that the Conservative difficulties and Jacob Rees-Mogg' difficulties

:32:28. > :32:31.would not be as strong as they currently are.

:32:32. > :32:36.A very good question. Better than the questions I think of. So, what

:32:37. > :32:41.is the answer to that question? No. The alternative vote is wrong in

:32:42. > :32:48.principle and first-past-the-post is straightforward. You do not get the

:32:49. > :32:52.problem of the least valued vote making the difference. But also

:32:53. > :32:57.because I think that the European elections, one of the things we

:32:58. > :33:03.learned, was we saw UKIP taking votes from Labour. More so than in

:33:04. > :33:07.the past. In the past this taking votes from us had been true but UKIP

:33:08. > :33:11.taking votes from Labour is more of a thing now. Look at Rotherham and

:33:12. > :33:16.the results there. Sure but they tend to take votes

:33:17. > :33:24.from safe Labour seats, take it from you in marginal seats, you could

:33:25. > :33:31.lose? They take votes from us... More in safer areas as well.

:33:32. > :33:50.Which you could also lose. But also from Labour they could lose.

:33:51. > :34:12.So from the northern areas, there are big majorities... You could have

:34:13. > :34:13.done well in the northern heartland or the traditional heartland areas,

:34:14. > :34:14.although the Labour Party has never had 100% of the vote in the areas.

:34:15. > :34:14.And there we are seeing the Tory and the Liberal Democrats' vote

:34:15. > :34:15.collapsing as it is going to UKIP. Lord Ashcroft did a poll where he

:34:16. > :34:16.said that one in seven of the UKIP verities were Labour voters. So we

:34:17. > :34:18.have a problem there. We have to work hard to win those people back.

:34:19. > :34:20.But saying it is a protest vote is insulting to people switching to

:34:21. > :34:22.UKIP. And us main stream political parties have to work harder to

:34:23. > :34:25.understand the complicated reasons why people are shifting to UKIP. I

:34:26. > :34:29.think there is a lot of things going on. Not just about Europe and

:34:30. > :34:34.immigration but more about the way in which politics is conducted and

:34:35. > :34:37.in how some of the people feel left out in society. We have to respond

:34:38. > :34:43.to that. We have the UKIP candidate to have a

:34:44. > :34:49.word with. Roger Helmer there. He was chosen when the Patrick Mercer,

:34:50. > :34:57.the outgoing Tory MP had to resign, somewhat in disgrace. Roger Helmer

:34:58. > :35:10.stepped forward. Some were expecting Nigel Farage but we have Roger

:35:11. > :35:19.Helmer there. Have you won? We don't know yet. We know that the

:35:20. > :35:28.Conservatives and UKIP are ahead of everybody else. We are waiting for

:35:29. > :35:33.the count. It will be resolved in a couple of hours.

:35:34. > :35:37.If you had not won, what would be a good result for you? We think we

:35:38. > :35:40.have had a cracking campaign. We think probably the best by-election

:35:41. > :35:45.result we have ever seen. Either to win or close on the heels of the

:35:46. > :35:50.Conservative Party. Either way that is a huge rebuff for the Prime

:35:51. > :35:53.Minister who has been to the Newark constituency on four occasions,

:35:54. > :35:55.thrown the kitchen sink at it. Sent vast numbers of his people and the

:35:56. > :35:57.people he sent were whipped to attend, whereas the hundreds of UKIP

:35:58. > :35:59.supporters were volunteers who came as they believe in what we are

:36:00. > :36:01.doing. Why in the final days was your

:36:02. > :36:04.leader, Nigel Farage, not in Newark but Malta, giving a speech? Perhaps

:36:05. > :36:07.as the Conservatives are more worried than we are. Nigel came to a

:36:08. > :36:12.wonderful rally we had last Saturday in this room in which I am speaking.

:36:13. > :36:15.He is here today. He has been with us through the polling day and has

:36:16. > :36:19.provided us enormous support. Why not be there for the final push

:36:20. > :36:21.in the last 48 hours of the campaign? Because he had other work

:36:22. > :36:27.to do. More important than getting you

:36:28. > :36:30.elected in Europe? He has lots and lots of calls on his time. He is the

:36:31. > :36:33.leader of our party. The leader of the group in the Parliament. The

:36:34. > :36:38.leader of the delegation to the European Parliament, he has a lot of

:36:39. > :36:44.different things to do. But what could be more important

:36:45. > :36:48.than to the leader of UKIP than getting you to win the first ever

:36:49. > :36:52.by-election? We have a good machine here. A good campaign manager and

:36:53. > :37:00.good candidate and great support from the party leader.

:37:01. > :37:10.OK. So just not there in the final days. Let me ask you this, where do

:37:11. > :37:27.you think that you are taking the votes? Where are the votes... You

:37:28. > :37:36.had few votes in 2010, under 2,000. You are getting a lot more than

:37:37. > :37:41.that, are they fro? They are coming from -- where are they coming from?

:37:42. > :37:44.They are coming from across the board.

:37:45. > :37:46.The experience we have is that we are taking former Conservative

:37:47. > :37:49.voters and former Labour voters and we are excited that we are taking

:37:50. > :37:55.votes from a lot of people who have been telling us that they have not

:37:56. > :37:57.voted for ten, 20 years but they are now hearing something that they can

:37:58. > :37:59.believe in. Are you enjoying being a by-election

:38:00. > :38:01.candidate? A fantastic experience. Extremely tiring. I have not worked

:38:02. > :38:02.so intensely. Of course, two elections. I have worked solidly for

:38:03. > :38:03.six weeks with one day off but a lot of fun and hugely excited. Looking

:38:04. > :38:09.forward to the results. If you have not won tonight will you

:38:10. > :38:12.fight Newark in the general election? We are concentrating on

:38:13. > :38:17.this election. But the election is over bar the

:38:18. > :38:22.results, so will you fight Newark in the general election if you have not

:38:23. > :38:24.won tonight? I will not make an announcement until we see the

:38:25. > :38:32.results. OK. Can you mark our card for us, do

:38:33. > :38:40.you haved in idea as to when we will get the result? People are telling

:38:41. > :38:45.me about 3.00am. I am not sure that my people are any better than yours.

:38:46. > :38:51.No, my people are telling us even later than pam. Perhaps, assuming

:38:52. > :38:56.there are no recounts? I am not booked for morning media until 6.

:38:57. > :39:01.20am. So that could be OK. It may still be us! We may go right

:39:02. > :39:06.through. We hope to speak to you when we get

:39:07. > :39:10.the results. Roger Helmer thank you for joining us for now. The UKIP

:39:11. > :39:16.candidate from Newark there. Waiting on the results. Let me check it is

:39:17. > :39:23.coming up to 1. 20am. A little while to go yet. John Ashworth, is it

:39:24. > :39:31.conceivable, do you think, that a number of Labour voters would move

:39:32. > :39:37.to UKIP? Vote for UKIP in Newark? It is conceivable. Obviously we have

:39:38. > :39:42.seen Labour voters shifting to UKIP in the yarn elections, so it is

:39:43. > :39:46.conceivable. On Twitter some were suggesting that some Labour voters

:39:47. > :39:49.have gone to the Tories to defeat UKIP. So I suspect all sorts of

:39:50. > :39:52.things. Lots of unusual things going on the

:39:53. > :39:57.ground. Would it be a motivation? Would

:39:58. > :40:05.Labour voters go to UKIP as they like the cut of UKIP's cloth? Of the

:40:06. > :40:10.northern working-class votes that UKIP has been attracting in other

:40:11. > :40:16.constituencies or are they going to stop the Tories, simply? If you are

:40:17. > :40:22.a left-wing voter it would be bizarre for UKIP to stop the Tories?

:40:23. > :40:27.It would. I think it is conceivable. Not so much in Newark. Although it

:40:28. > :40:33.has happened in other areas in the European elections. But for example

:40:34. > :40:36.down the road from Newark, the Ashfield constituency, the Liberal

:40:37. > :40:41.Democrats have held up well in Ashfield. Yet they collapsed in the

:40:42. > :40:45.European elections and the UKIP vote went up. So that suggests that

:40:46. > :40:49.Liberal Democrats shifted to UKIP. So us politicians have to understand

:40:50. > :40:58.what is going on with the UKIP vote and not dismiss it as a protest. It

:40:59. > :41:04.is no question. AV, I will not reopen but without AV, my point is

:41:05. > :41:09.without it, you have the tactical votes and everyone is after them. In

:41:10. > :41:13.a four, five party situation, there are bizarre results.

:41:14. > :41:16.Can I raise that point with you, Matt Hancock. The

:41:17. > :41:21.first-past-the-post system works in a clear cut way when there are only

:41:22. > :41:28.two parties in the game as there was for many British general elections

:41:29. > :41:33.after the Second World War. 1945, 1950, about 98% of people voted

:41:34. > :41:38.either Labour or Conservative. We are now in a four-party system. The

:41:39. > :41:42.first-past-the-post system can produce strange results? But it has

:41:43. > :41:47.the advantage of being simple and straightforward.

:41:48. > :41:50.But not with four parties? I think to say that people are only

:41:51. > :41:56.tactically voting if they switch votes one way or the other is wrong.

:41:57. > :42:03.You wrote to Liberal Democrats voters urging them to do that. I met

:42:04. > :42:11.Labour voters in Newark voting UKIP as they preferred Nigel Farage to Ed

:42:12. > :42:14.Miliband and I met Labour voters in Newark voting for Conservatives as

:42:15. > :42:18.they think we have a compelling offer and they don't like Ed

:42:19. > :42:21.Miliband. This is driven by the offers that the parties make. I

:42:22. > :42:27.agree with John that you must understand why the changes are

:42:28. > :42:31.happening. To address them. But it is also about the offer on the

:42:32. > :42:36.table. With somebody like Ed Miliband as the offer of the Labour

:42:37. > :42:39.leader it is meaning that Labour voters are going to all sorts of

:42:40. > :42:42.different parties. But David Cameron is not looking

:42:43. > :42:48.like winning the majority of the vote. So David Cameron has a problem

:42:49. > :42:53.in what should be a safe Tory seat. It is not so often that the sitting

:42:54. > :42:59.government wins over 50% of a vote in a by-election. No matter who.

:43:00. > :43:10.That is a feature of the elections. Now to the Labour backbencher, Simon

:43:11. > :43:15.Danchuck, now, Labour won the seat in 1997 but there were different

:43:16. > :43:18.boundaries. The boundary changes have helped the Conservatives. But

:43:19. > :43:22.it is a by-election. Oppositions do well in by-elections. Is it a cause

:43:23. > :43:27.for concern that Labour is not even in contention? I don't think so we

:43:28. > :43:33.are not in contention, I don't think that we would have expected to be,

:43:34. > :43:37.to be honest. I think that the Labour vote will hold up to a

:43:38. > :43:43.certain extent. But you were talk being the idea that UKIP may be

:43:44. > :43:51.taking some Labour votes. I think that is inevitable in fact. There

:43:52. > :43:56.are reasons. Firstly, the public don't understand what we have to

:43:57. > :44:02.say. They like how UKIP speak to them in a more ordinary language. I

:44:03. > :44:05.think that there are things we as a party can do about that. They are

:44:06. > :44:09.concerned about whether or not politicians are working for them

:44:10. > :44:14.effectively in terms of representing them well. And the third point is

:44:15. > :44:19.that the main stream parties have given them a free run on a number of

:44:20. > :44:26.issues. For example immigration over Europe. We have not talked about

:44:27. > :44:31.Europe since John Major's day. Thirdly, UKIP have been good in

:44:32. > :44:36.doing politics in a different way to the main stream parties. Some

:44:37. > :44:52.inevitable that we have been losing some votes to UKIP. Why are UKIP

:44:53. > :44:58.getting blue-collar Labour voters, why? They are seen as talking their

:44:59. > :45:03.language and that is something we need to learn from. They talk about

:45:04. > :45:10.issues that are important to them, about immigration, they talk about

:45:11. > :45:12.Europe and these issues have crept up on mainstream politics. We should

:45:13. > :45:17.have been addressing this, Gordon Brown should have provided

:45:18. > :45:22.leadership in the last election and tackled immigration, but he did not.

:45:23. > :45:30.It is though we sought to avoid this competition. Conserve -- politician

:45:31. > :45:35.-- the public sense that this is being avoided. I believe that Ed

:45:36. > :45:39.Miliband will do that. He is serious about winning this General Election

:45:40. > :45:43.and there is a real opportunity for Labour to win the General Election

:45:44. > :45:52.in 2015 and I think he will cut his cloth accordingly. Are there are too

:45:53. > :45:59.many Oxbridge educated smoothies at the top of the Labour Party for

:46:00. > :46:03.northern tastes? There is an issue about how diverse the Shadow Cabinet

:46:04. > :46:08.is, I have said that previously and I will say it again. I think the

:46:09. > :46:15.electorate want politicians, not just like Matt Hancock or Jonathan,

:46:16. > :46:18.they want a diverse range of politicians representing them and I

:46:19. > :46:24.think it is important that mainstream parties do all they can

:46:25. > :46:29.to ensure that happens. It applies to the Tories and Labour equally.

:46:30. > :46:34.You would like a referendum? I have been clear about that yes. I think

:46:35. > :46:39.the public want that. I think we need to renegotiate the situation in

:46:40. > :46:44.Europe and I am pro-European, but I think that because of the feeling in

:46:45. > :46:49.the country, I think it would be right to have a referendum. Also, I

:46:50. > :46:53.accept that Ed Miliband is the leader and he has the right to take

:46:54. > :46:59.the position he takes. John Ashworth, why not give them a

:47:00. > :47:03.referendum? I do not think that should be our priority if we get

:47:04. > :47:07.into government. If we get into government and we pledge a

:47:08. > :47:11.referendum, the first few years back government will dominated by

:47:12. > :47:18.negotiations with the European Union and I think that when people are

:47:19. > :47:32.struggling in Rochdale and other areas, when people are struggling to

:47:33. > :47:38.pay the bills, these are the sorts of issues we should be dealing with,

:47:39. > :47:48.not wasting our time with this referendum won we do not know what

:47:49. > :47:52.the renegotiation will be. I want to go back to Newark were we are joined

:47:53. > :48:02.by Nigel Farage. Welcome to the programme. Have you won? No, the

:48:03. > :48:07.Conservatives will win this seat but UKIP. Their best ever percentage

:48:08. > :48:12.score in a by-election, it will be over 30% and given that we were

:48:13. > :48:18.25,000 votes behind the Conservatives in 2010 and it will be

:48:19. > :48:25.2500 now, we are very pleased our performance. In your view, the Tory

:48:26. > :48:30.majority will be how they could? I think it will be down to around

:48:31. > :48:37.3000. I understand that you would consider that a decent results, but

:48:38. > :48:45.why do you think you have not won it? If the scores on the doors are

:48:46. > :48:51.correct, and the UKIP vote share is up nearly 30%, it would be difficult

:48:52. > :48:55.to think that they could have done much better. It has been assured by

:48:56. > :48:59.election, we could not mobilise anyone until after the European

:49:00. > :49:04.elections, we have only had ten days, the Conservatives are put in

:49:05. > :49:12.more effort than any other by-election in their history, we

:49:13. > :49:16.will be very happy with this result. You are happy? There must be a bit

:49:17. > :49:20.of disappointment that you have not ruled it off given your local

:49:21. > :49:24.election results and then the European election results, this

:49:25. > :49:28.would have given you some incredible momentum if you had won. I think the

:49:29. > :49:34.important thing for us is that ten days ago, everyone said, the UKIP

:49:35. > :49:37.result in the European elections will not carry through to

:49:38. > :49:41.Westminster elections and what this by-election shows is that there are

:49:42. > :49:46.people out there who are not lending their vote to UKIP in European

:49:47. > :49:51.elections, they are UKIP voters. You do not even think it will be close

:49:52. > :49:56.enough for you to insist on a recount? I do not think so. I think

:49:57. > :50:05.there will be a clear majority for the Conservatives, but a big second

:50:06. > :50:07.place for UKIP and we come they get seconds in Labour and Liberal

:50:08. > :50:11.Democrat held seats and the other thing worth noting, the turnout

:50:12. > :50:15.today is the highest it has been in a by-election for many years and the

:50:16. > :50:23.reason for that is a lot of people who have never voted, were going out

:50:24. > :50:30.today to vote for UKIP. Just the point I was making to your

:50:31. > :50:35.candidate, if the result was quite close and you have come a strong

:50:36. > :50:40.second if I can put it that way, why we do not bear in the constituency

:50:41. > :50:52.for the final push? -- why were you not there. I keep being told that I

:50:53. > :50:55.have to be here every day, UKIP is about a lot more than Nigel Farage

:50:56. > :51:04.and we have proved that in this by-election. To have won tonight

:51:05. > :51:07.would have been another earthquake and that final push could have made

:51:08. > :51:19.all the difference. You are the household name of UKIP will stop our

:51:20. > :51:30.long should I have been here? Should I have been the candidate? --.. We

:51:31. > :51:33.have fought a good campaign with a first-class candidate and we are

:51:34. > :51:42.getting more professional and better at fighting elections and all I can

:51:43. > :51:46.say is roll on the next by-election. I was speaking at an engagement I

:51:47. > :52:02.accepted eight months ago, I never break my word. Word you go from

:52:03. > :52:08.here? -- where do you go. We have got some work to do, we need to get

:52:09. > :52:13.our domestic manifesto correct and we intend to launch the outline of

:52:14. > :52:22.that September in Doncaster at our conference. We need to get some new

:52:23. > :52:26.spokespeople involved. We need to get selecting candidates,

:52:27. > :52:33.particularly for our target seats for 2015. A lot of organisation, a

:52:34. > :52:37.lot of work to do, but we are ready for the next by-election and that

:52:38. > :52:46.could be in South Cambridgeshire if Andrew Lansley becomes European

:52:47. > :52:49.commissioner. When I asked Andrew Lansley is he was in contention, he

:52:50. > :52:54.did not quite answer, but I said if he was asked to do so, what would

:52:55. > :52:57.you say and he said he would say yes to David Cameron, so you may get

:52:58. > :53:12.your by-election will stop we will see. I think it is very likely --..

:53:13. > :53:16.Thank you. Nigel Farage there. Not all the votes have been counted, but

:53:17. > :53:20.it is clear that he has seen the signs and that it is clear in his

:53:21. > :53:26.view, because we never know until all the votes are counted, he is

:53:27. > :53:30.saying that the Conservatives have not won, he is conceding defeat, but

:53:31. > :53:36.saying that UKIP has come a strong second. Simon Danczuk is still with

:53:37. > :53:47.us in Salford, but let me get your reaction Diane James. It is better

:53:48. > :53:51.than your result in Eastleigh. It is better. It is a nice increase in

:53:52. > :54:00.terms of our share of the vote. The point Nigel was making, in 2010, the

:54:01. > :54:07.Conservatives had that seat with 54% of the vote, we had less than 4%. If

:54:08. > :54:17.he is indicating we have gone above 30%, that is a significant figure

:54:18. > :54:24.and I am very pleased. We have clearly got to make a squeeze. Nigel

:54:25. > :54:27.Farage has conceded that we have got the first Conservative election

:54:28. > :54:33.victory in a by-election in government in 25 years. That is

:54:34. > :54:38.fantastic. It is great news. Winning a by-election in government is hard

:54:39. > :54:42.and we put everything into it. It is true! We get this criticism that we

:54:43. > :54:47.worked hard, but in the General Election, you will see an awful lot

:54:48. > :54:51.of hard work as well. The Conservative Party's tale is up, we

:54:52. > :54:56.have a battle on, we have to persuade people, we have a lot of

:54:57. > :55:00.work to do, but there is a united team working at it and that sounds

:55:01. > :55:04.as if Nigel Farage is correct, it sounds like it has been successful

:55:05. > :55:11.and we will wait and see the full result. We worked hard to stop I

:55:12. > :55:22.went to Newark on Tuesday, I could not move for Tory MPs --. Stop Grant

:55:23. > :55:31.Shapps has done a great job. All those Tory MPs, well done. Let me

:55:32. > :55:35.rejoin Simon Danczuk. You have heard but we think has happened, we do not

:55:36. > :55:41.know how good or bad the Labour vote was, but I know you feel that the

:55:42. > :55:48.should be a change of tactics or strategy in your party's approach. I

:55:49. > :55:54.am Ed Miliband, we are in the privacy of my office behind the

:55:55. > :56:02.Speaker's chair, tell me what I need to do to ensure victory. I would say

:56:03. > :56:07.a little bit less slogans, more conversation with the electorate,

:56:08. > :56:11.politics is a team game, get more of the Shadow Cabinet out there are

:56:12. > :56:16.speaking to the public, getting the message across. We have some

:56:17. > :56:24.excellent policies, we need to strengthen our policy in relation to

:56:25. > :56:28.emigration and welfare, -- immigration. We need to get out

:56:29. > :56:33.there and talk about Europe, because it is important to the people. They

:56:34. > :56:37.need to hear where we stand. We need an open and honest conversation with

:56:38. > :56:42.the electorate. Ed Miliband is doing that and I thought he made an

:56:43. > :56:48.excellent speech after the Queen's speech. He has some appeal. We need

:56:49. > :56:55.to build on where we are. It is possible for us to win the General

:56:56. > :56:59.Election. Will you be blunt enough to tell me that Labour has a

:57:00. > :57:06.leadership problem? I do not think so. I am being honest. It is a team

:57:07. > :57:09.game. We need to get around Ed Miliband and support him. The

:57:10. > :57:17.comments that I make are constructive. I am passionate about

:57:18. > :57:21.delivering a Labour government for our people so they do not have to

:57:22. > :57:30.suffer under what is currently a Coalition. The other point to make

:57:31. > :57:33.is that this is not a success for the Conservatives, they have thrown

:57:34. > :57:42.the kitchen sink at this, they have struggled to hold annihilated, so it

:57:43. > :57:48.is an interesting by-election result. I do not think it is too bad

:57:49. > :57:53.for Labour. We do not know yet, I would not prejudge that. If you have

:57:54. > :57:58.not got a leadership problem, why do opinion polls show that only 6% of

:57:59. > :58:02.people say that having Ed Miliband as your leader makes them more

:58:03. > :58:07.likely to support the party and 40% say it makes them less likely to

:58:08. > :58:16.support the party? Surely you could file that under leadership problem?

:58:17. > :58:20.In terms of the opinion polls, we are ahead of them. We are six points

:58:21. > :58:26.in front of the Conservatives in one poll was will be published tomorrow.

:58:27. > :58:31.Ed Miliband is growing into the job. He has kept the party united. We are

:58:32. > :58:37.going in the right direction. It is all to play for. We are 11 months

:58:38. > :58:39.away, we are firming up our policies, many of those are

:58:40. > :58:59.appealing to the electorate. There is a lot of work to be done in terms

:59:00. > :59:01.of communications, but we will get there and Ed Miliband will be

:59:02. > :59:04.appealing more to the electorate as the electorate gets to know him

:59:05. > :59:07.better. In your most honest moments, would you not concede that it is

:59:08. > :59:09.clear that the Tories have a problem in the North and that David Cameron

:59:10. > :59:12.has another problem as well. Is also fair to say that Ed Miliband has the

:59:13. > :59:17.same problem? He does not appeal that much to traditional Labour

:59:18. > :59:20.voters the North. It is not just about Ed Miliband. It is about the

:59:21. > :59:25.Shadow Cabinet and what that looks like. You have to have people there

:59:26. > :59:31.are speaking the language of Northern and voters. Why has he not

:59:32. > :59:37.got you? You would need to put that to him. I would if he would give me

:59:38. > :59:46.an interview. Thank you for joining us. Malcolm Bruce, let me come back

:59:47. > :59:50.to you. The BBC understands that the Liberal Democrats have come six. You

:59:51. > :00:05.have come behind the Green Party and Dan Independent candidate

:00:06. > :00:20.campaigning on hospitals -- Independent stop.

:00:21. > :00:25.But what concerns me about the wider debates is that we with securing

:00:26. > :00:31.recovery at the moment. The strongest economy in the Western

:00:32. > :00:36.world... You have said that. But I appreciate it is important. But what

:00:37. > :00:42.I am trying to say, despite all of that, it looks like you have come

:00:43. > :00:47.behind the Greens? You are making a habit of it? We are not. The point

:00:48. > :00:52.is we have made gains in certain parts of the country in the local

:00:53. > :00:57.elections, held up in areas, what we are not getting is recognition for

:00:58. > :01:02.what we delivered in Government. How is that to change? If there is

:01:03. > :01:05.credit going the Tories are getting it.

:01:06. > :01:11.In the areas where we are strongly organised, we are not a big national

:01:12. > :01:15.party. But in the 57 seats, the support is strong with the mechanism

:01:16. > :01:19.to deliver. Until recently no cheerleaders for the Liberal

:01:20. > :01:24.Democrats. Indeed we are getting vilified by the media. And recently

:01:25. > :01:27.people are starting to say that the Liberal Democrats have made a

:01:28. > :01:34.contribution and going into coalition was a brave decision,

:01:35. > :01:38.delivering recovery, tax reforms, pensions. But our problem is that

:01:39. > :01:42.the people are saying that they don't understand what we have done.

:01:43. > :01:49.They know the nasty things we supported.

:01:50. > :01:52.What? People will say we have supported certain benefit reforms

:01:53. > :01:57.that they did not like. Did you? We have had to, we are in a

:01:58. > :02:01.coalition. But mainly people were in favour of

:02:02. > :02:06.you tackling the deficit. That is why Labour has found it more

:02:07. > :02:10.difficult to get traction on the economic front as people thought

:02:11. > :02:14.that the deficit had to come down. But they pick on certain things to

:02:15. > :02:18.say you have let us down. We have. We accept that.

:02:19. > :02:23.When does it change? We have ten months. I strongly and firmly

:02:24. > :02:27.believe that as people see the benefits of the recovery binding in,

:02:28. > :02:32.the first problem that Labour will have is can we trust Labour not to

:02:33. > :02:36.throw it all away, given that they contributed to the problem and look

:02:37. > :02:41.at the Conservatives to say that they are split on Europe, indeed

:02:42. > :02:44.split on a lot of things. And they will, I believe, start to say that

:02:45. > :02:49.the Liberal Democrats have been a force for good, responsible. They

:02:50. > :02:52.have made mistakes but delivered changes and a Parliament without

:02:53. > :02:55.Liberal Democrats in significant numbers is one that will not

:02:56. > :03:00.deliver. What will happen if you are in the

:03:01. > :03:05.position today come the autumn party conference season? I believe that at

:03:06. > :03:10.the autumn conference, we can say how to motivate our team to get out

:03:11. > :03:14.there and to tell the people what we have achieved, that the media and

:03:15. > :03:20.the political opponents have stopped them from hearing. Where they have

:03:21. > :03:25.heard it they have responded. In my constituents, the European election,

:03:26. > :03:28.the vote went up, as it did in a lot of places. But where the

:03:29. > :03:33.organisation is weak, where we rely on the national coverage it fell

:03:34. > :03:39.away. Not good. But people will look at the general election, they people

:03:40. > :03:45.will say do they want the coverage secure, the benefits on the tax and

:03:46. > :03:51.benefits sustained? If they do, that is where they vote the Liberal

:03:52. > :03:56.Democrats. But you won Leicester South. In my

:03:57. > :04:00.by-election you were annihilated as in 2004 people felt you were running

:04:01. > :04:04.in that election to the left of Labour. Then they see you go into

:04:05. > :04:11.the coalition with the Tories. That is why you lost in Leicester South

:04:12. > :04:15.and why you cold lose in Manchester, Cambridge, Hornsey, seats you took

:04:16. > :04:23.from Labour in 2001, 2005... It is a tough call going into a coalition

:04:24. > :04:27.that nobody predicted in circumstances whereas an independent

:04:28. > :04:32.party we campaigned against the Conservatives.

:04:33. > :04:37.But his point and Tony Blair made the same point, he said that you ran

:04:38. > :04:42.to the left of the Labour in the election campaign as you had done in

:04:43. > :04:46.previous elections and then ended up to the right of Labour in Government

:04:47. > :04:49.with the Conservatives and not prepared the base for the

:04:50. > :04:54.possibility of a coalition with the Tories? What I am saying is that we

:04:55. > :05:00.have ten months to get that message across and do it. But we have not

:05:01. > :05:02.drifted to the right. We are in a coalition with a centre-right party

:05:03. > :05:06.but pulled the coalition to the centre.

:05:07. > :05:07.but pulled the coalition to the reforming liberal things but people

:05:08. > :05:09.don't appreciate it. reforming liberal things but people

:05:10. > :05:14.One final question for you, reforming liberal things but people

:05:15. > :05:16.was, I can use a Scottish word, you will understand it, there

:05:17. > :05:24.was, I can use a Scottish word, you stoos homosexual ie about Nick Clegg

:05:25. > :05:28.and Vince Cable and the role of Lord Oakeshott. It got a lot of publicity

:05:29. > :05:34.but it was beginning to die and go out. It had lost its legs in the

:05:35. > :05:39.media. All of a sudden it is given new legs by Nick Clegg and Vince

:05:40. > :05:46.Cable appearing at 11.00am to have a pint in a pub as an artificially

:05:47. > :05:57.arranged photo call. Who advised them to do that? I tell you, it is

:05:58. > :06:06.the people in the pub, grateful for the Queen's Speech... You know that

:06:07. > :06:10.is not true. They put it in the headlines again! When

:06:11. > :06:15.is not true. They put it in the unpopular, the leader takes the hit.

:06:16. > :06:18.But if you take the lightening conductor away, it is the building

:06:19. > :06:22.that gets hit. Is it not worrying that Vince Cable

:06:23. > :06:27.knew about the polling that Lord Oakeshott was doing? At least some

:06:28. > :06:32.of it? Well, we are well shot of Lord Oakeshott! What about Vince

:06:33. > :06:37.Cable knowing that some of this was going on, even talking about the

:06:38. > :06:41.questions? He maintains he did not know the specifics of what was

:06:42. > :06:46.happening. Vince Cable must answer for that himself. But Lord Oakeshott

:06:47. > :06:51.overreached I have in ways, two ways. One, he wants to have the

:06:52. > :06:56.argument whether we are left of centre or right of centre. But we

:06:57. > :07:01.are a Liberal Democrat party. With radical leanings and we need

:07:02. > :07:06.economic discipline, to balance the Budget and sustain growth. That

:07:07. > :07:11.makes us a party of the centre. The argument of slightly centre left or

:07:12. > :07:13.right is a waste of time. We have to show practicalities and show the

:07:14. > :07:19.people we can make a difference. OK. You have to go now.

:07:20. > :07:24.I have an early plane to catch. You are not going as you have come

:07:25. > :07:31.sixth? I have a funeral to go to for a very good friend.

:07:32. > :07:37.I understand, I am teasing you. We are grateful for your time. We know

:07:38. > :07:45.you have a funeral of your very good friend, we are grateful to you for

:07:46. > :07:49.coming. Nigel Farage has come a good second but the Tories have won, are

:07:50. > :07:52.you in a position to confirm that? Not yet.

:07:53. > :07:56.Nigel Farage put a number on it, saying that he thought that the

:07:57. > :08:01.Conservatives would win with a majority of two or 3,000. That from

:08:02. > :08:06.UKIP's perspective is something that they could claim as a victory. They

:08:07. > :08:11.were hoping to get within 5,000. They would have said that they had

:08:12. > :08:17.done well if that was the case. Sorry, can I interrupt, can I ask,

:08:18. > :08:27.Alex, why is he so sure that they have lost? I have never known a

:08:28. > :08:33.by-election with the result coming in the next hour or so, that someone

:08:34. > :08:38.would intentional call it wrong? He must believe that they have lost? I

:08:39. > :08:41.think he probably does. I think that most people here think the same. But

:08:42. > :08:47.I don't want to stake my reputation on it. It seems a consensus that the

:08:48. > :08:52.Tories have held the seat. The count has not long been underway. We have

:08:53. > :08:57.the turn out figure about 45 minutes ago. They are still very much in the

:08:58. > :09:03.count. But you do start to see the piles of paper piling up next to the

:09:04. > :09:08.candidates' names. You can make a judgment of that. So some indication

:09:09. > :09:12.that the Tories have held it. Nigel Farage calling it, saying he thinks

:09:13. > :09:16.that is the case. But UKIP have been saying that. It is the Conservatives

:09:17. > :09:21.who have held back from saying that they have won it. They are still

:09:22. > :09:27.doing that at the moment. So, the UKIP party conceding defeat

:09:28. > :09:35.but the Conservatives not yet claiming victory? You have it.

:09:36. > :09:40.The Conservatives threw everything at this. We are hoping to speak with

:09:41. > :09:44.Robert Jenrick, the Conservative candidate. He is here. He is down on

:09:45. > :09:49.the floor walking around trying to get a sense of what is going on. He

:09:50. > :09:53.could shed light on it from their perspective.

:09:54. > :09:58.So in idea how Labour have done? Obviously not doing better than

:09:59. > :10:05.third at best? But no indication if it is a decent or a poor third?

:10:06. > :10:10.Early on people were talking about the 18% figure. Labour acknowledging

:10:11. > :10:15.that they think that the votes have been squeezed because of the

:10:16. > :10:18.tactical voting where the people are voting for the Conservatives to

:10:19. > :10:24.block UKIP. They are saying that this is in their words a

:10:25. > :10:29.Conservative strong seat, the 44th safest Conservative seat. So trying

:10:30. > :10:33.to explain why their vote is as it was. But no indication of where they

:10:34. > :10:39.will sit. It is widely expected to be in the third place.

:10:40. > :10:43.Alex, our colleague James Landale has been indicating it looks like

:10:44. > :10:47.the Liberal Democrats have come sixth behind the Greens and an

:10:48. > :10:54.independent candidate, have you been hearing that too? Yes, he is sitting

:10:55. > :10:59.six feet from me, that is what he said it is a possibility, not a

:11:00. > :11:08.reality. That would be behind the Greens and a local campaigner who

:11:09. > :11:13.argued for a downgrading the hospital's A unit here in Newark.

:11:14. > :11:19.If the Lib Demes came sixth, it would be shocking but remember they

:11:20. > :11:23.came behind the Bus-Pass Elvis Party candidate. We have a Bus-Pass Elvis

:11:24. > :11:28.Party candidate standing here, we do not know yet if the Lib Demes have

:11:29. > :11:35.beaten him or not. Matt Hancock has something to say...

:11:36. > :11:39.There were odds for Bus-Pass Elvis Party to beat Lib Demes and I

:11:40. > :11:44.understand that a Labour MP put a tenner on it.

:11:45. > :11:50.There are indications that they may have beaten the Bus-Pass Elvis

:11:51. > :11:55.Party. Some sort of consolation. If they come sixth, it is likely

:11:56. > :12:01.that they will have lost their deposit? We were hearing about the

:12:02. > :12:05.2% mark. So they would have lost the deposit. The parties at the top end

:12:06. > :12:10.of the account will bring in high numbers in the 30s. So they would

:12:11. > :12:16.take a large chunk of the vote. The parties at the lower end, the Lib

:12:17. > :12:21.Demes are likely to lose deposits, especially if they come in sixth. So

:12:22. > :12:25.the ninth time out of 15 by-elections since 2010, that they

:12:26. > :12:30.have lost their deposit. Not a good record.

:12:31. > :12:37.And any idea when we will get the result, finally? When I know I

:12:38. > :12:42.assure you, I will tell you! Loft loft But will I be the first person

:12:43. > :12:47.you will tell? That is the important thing? Yes, yes, yes! We better get

:12:48. > :12:51.the coffee on. We are here for a while yet.

:12:52. > :12:57.Alex, back to you with some developments. John Curtis is in the

:12:58. > :13:02.newsroom, listening to this, getting a rough indication of where the

:13:03. > :13:11.numbers may be. Your thoughts? Let's go back to what Farage barnlike was

:13:12. > :13:17.telling us. The turn out is 53. %. That is slightly higher than

:13:18. > :13:21.Eastleigh. If he is right that UKIP are it,500 votes behind, that

:13:22. > :13:27.implies a 22% swing from Conservative to UKIP. That is close

:13:28. > :13:30.enough that some will be asking Nigel Farage why he did not fight

:13:31. > :13:34.the seat, that they could have won it. There could be a little regret

:13:35. > :13:40.here. For the Liberal Democrats, they managed to put in the worst

:13:41. > :13:44.ever local election performance on May 22nd, coming a cropper in the

:13:45. > :13:50.European elections and the position in the opinion polls more dire now.

:13:51. > :13:55.If indeed the figure of 2% I heard, or just less than 4%, I think that

:13:56. > :13:59.this will be the worst Liberal Democrat performance in an English

:14:00. > :14:03.post-war by-election. They have been sixth before in Barnsley. But

:14:04. > :14:08.clearly they are in a dire situation. I heard Malcolm Bruce

:14:09. > :14:15.telling you it would be better in places where there is an MP where

:14:16. > :14:19.they are stronger. That is true in some places, doing well in Bradford,

:14:20. > :14:26.and Birmingham and Yardley but many others where they did not do so,

:14:27. > :14:31.like Twickenham. And if you take the average performance of the Liberal

:14:32. > :14:34.Democrats in wards in which there was an incumbentmph, the Liberal

:14:35. > :14:40.Democrat vote was going down by as much as it was across the whole of

:14:41. > :14:44.the country. Down 13 points. So the Liberal Democrats are in truth

:14:45. > :14:50.clutching at Strauss. And the truth is that Malcolm Bruce

:14:51. > :14:54.has given all of the reasons as to why the voters don't like the

:14:55. > :14:58.Liberal Democrats but the time is running out. It is not clear how

:14:59. > :15:03.they will persuade the voters that in the end they should be forgiven

:15:04. > :15:17.for the sins that Malcolm Bruce enumb rated. It is not immediately

:15:18. > :15:21.apparent to see. What could change? Clearly what the Liberal Democrats

:15:22. > :15:25.are hoping, it is the same thing the Conservatives are hoping, that in

:15:26. > :15:32.the end of the electorate will give them a reward for having turned the

:15:33. > :15:36.economy around. So far, although the electorate is optimistic about the

:15:37. > :15:42.state of the economy in general, neither the Conservatives nor the

:15:43. > :15:46.Liberal Democrats have profited from that improvement in economic

:15:47. > :15:52.optimism. This comes back to another aspect of the UKIP surge. UKIP

:15:53. > :15:56.voters are distinguished by their anti-European feeling and their

:15:57. > :16:00.views on immigration, but they are distinguished by something else and

:16:01. > :16:07.that is they are still economically pessimistic. We are talking about

:16:08. > :16:11.older, working-class voters who are not necessarily in a terribly good

:16:12. > :16:16.economic situation and this section of the electorate outside London

:16:17. > :16:22.seemed to be saying, what recovery? It has passed them by and unless the

:16:23. > :16:27.recovery reaches out into those areas and reaches the kind of people

:16:28. > :16:34.that UKIP appeal to, it may be difficult to get these voters back,

:16:35. > :16:37.because at the moment, they are even more pessimistic than Labour

:16:38. > :16:45.supporters when asked about the prospects for the economy over the

:16:46. > :16:52.next year. We do not have... We know Labour has done badly, but not how

:16:53. > :16:57.badly. We have heard a figure of 18%, that would mean the vote has

:16:58. > :17:02.gone down. In virtually all by-elections, outside Scotland,

:17:03. > :17:07.apart from the disaster of Bradford, Labour's vote has managed to go up.

:17:08. > :17:12.We have heard the excuse is kicking in. The truth is, the Labour Party

:17:13. > :17:17.should have got itself in a position where it was seen as the challenger

:17:18. > :17:22.and its vote was not being seen as squeezed. They have to ask

:17:23. > :17:35.themselves, why is it so easy for them to lose voters? Coming local

:17:36. > :17:38.elections, one of the figures from the local elections that people have

:17:39. > :17:40.not got onto is to compare what happened in the local elections, two

:17:41. > :17:42.years ago, it was the last time that those councils which were being

:17:43. > :17:45.elected to outside London were previously elected, look at the

:17:46. > :17:52.beggars, Labour's vote was down by eight percentage points. --

:17:53. > :17:58.figures. It is not the sign of a party making progress, but a party

:17:59. > :18:02.which seems to be in retreat and now retreating so far that if it goes

:18:03. > :18:08.any further, then there will be question marks about its ability to

:18:09. > :18:24.win the next General Election. Let me go to John Ashcroft. We topped

:18:25. > :18:29.the poll in some areas. There are about 30 seats were we topped the

:18:30. > :18:33.poll, the marginal seats that decide the outcome of the General Election.

:18:34. > :18:38.Why do you think things are so gloomy if we are topping the poll in

:18:39. > :18:43.these types of key target Conservative held constituencies?

:18:44. > :18:49.Absolutely, the evidence of the local elections is that on average,

:18:50. > :18:54.there was a 5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour, compared

:18:55. > :18:59.with 2010, but let us remember, in 2010, you secured your second worst

:19:00. > :19:04.result in your history. If indeed you can get a 5% swing in the

:19:05. > :19:08.General Election, you will be three points ahead of the Conservatives

:19:09. > :19:13.and you will win. The problem you have is that nine times out of ten,

:19:14. > :19:18.in the last 12 months of a Parliament, the government often

:19:19. > :19:23.manages to improve its position, it is likely that economic recovery

:19:24. > :19:28.will go further and you have to ask yourselves, why is our position

:19:29. > :19:33.weaker than it was two years ago, according to opinion polls and local

:19:34. > :19:36.election results? Your position has weakened and you cannot afford for

:19:37. > :19:53.your position to be weakened further. What is your answer? I

:19:54. > :19:58.would say that we are doing well in a lot of our target, Conservative

:19:59. > :20:04.held marginal seats. I understand the point that you are making, but

:20:05. > :20:08.the local election results were were aimed for the Tory party, looking at

:20:09. > :20:18.those places, which on election night are the ones we will focus on,

:20:19. > :20:24.places like Lincoln, these are the sorts of places which decided

:20:25. > :20:28.government. Why wasn't the Labour Party which started a debate about

:20:29. > :20:40.what it should be doing to do better? Some of my colleagues were

:20:41. > :20:45.on the radio straightaway. If you have had a bad election, what you

:20:46. > :20:50.tend to do is look for a couple of bright spots will stop let me

:20:51. > :20:58.finish. You go on about them. For instance, going backwards on Swindon

:20:59. > :21:14.council when there are two marginal seats --. . Where Ed Miliband went

:21:15. > :21:33.in the 2012 -- 2012, to say this was our revival, but no party has ever

:21:34. > :21:37.won General Election having not managed to win two by-elections in

:21:38. > :21:46.the preceding Parliament. Labour have won one and looks like they

:21:47. > :21:51.will be surge in this one. Even John Curtice is beginning to lose

:21:52. > :21:58.interest -- third. We will come back to you when we get more facts for

:21:59. > :22:03.you. We are told that the result should be declared between 2:30am

:22:04. > :22:09.and three a.m.. It is a bit earlier than we thought. These results can

:22:10. > :22:16.often be delayed because of a recount. You can have a recount

:22:17. > :22:22.because it is so close at the top cop but also because someone may be

:22:23. > :22:27.on the edge of losing their deposit. At the moment it does not

:22:28. > :22:32.look like this will be needed. According to Nigel Farage, the

:22:33. > :22:36.Conservatives have won comfortably. It looks like the Liberal Democrats

:22:37. > :22:49.have lost by enough to lose their deposit. Let us go and speak to a

:22:50. > :22:55.Conservative who is down there. Patrick McLaughlin joins us now.

:22:56. > :23:01.Have won tonight? I hope we have. We fought an energetic campaign. I

:23:02. > :23:11.think we will hold this seat. Will you hold it comfortably? Well, we

:23:12. > :23:17.will know the result shortly. I do not think it helps to anticipate the

:23:18. > :23:24.result. Nigel Farage says you have won. That is good of him considering

:23:25. > :23:31.he is not the candidate. He ran away from it. It is good of him to

:23:32. > :23:36.concede on behalf of someone else. I will not declare victory, but we

:23:37. > :23:41.fought an energetic campaign. The Prime Minister has been here and I

:23:42. > :23:46.think we will have a good result. An exceptional results, it is 25 years

:23:47. > :23:52.since we have won a by-election while in government and that this

:23:53. > :23:58.remarkable. It is a point which Matt Hancock has made five times already.

:23:59. > :24:02.You're so unused to winning by election is in government, it is now

:24:03. > :24:08.on loop that you think you have done. We will no doubt hear it more

:24:09. > :24:13.times. Even if you have won, UKIP look like they will be at least as

:24:14. > :24:18.strong second. At a time when you have made it clear that you will

:24:19. > :24:22.deliver a referendum on Europe and you are presiding over a strongly

:24:23. > :24:33.recovering economy, why are you still losing so many votes to UKIP.

:24:34. > :24:39.--? First and foremost, when you have by-elections, it is often where

:24:40. > :24:43.the government gets a kicking. We know that people have been through a

:24:44. > :24:48.tough time, but the simple fact is that in this by-election, the

:24:49. > :24:52.turnout will not be as high as it was at the last General Election and

:24:53. > :24:59.I remember in my by-election when we won by 100 votes in 1986 and 12

:25:00. > :25:04.months later, Margaret Thatcher won the General Election. You cannot

:25:05. > :25:08.overly rely on by-elections. It is astounding that the Labour Party,

:25:09. > :25:14.meant to be our main opponents, have not come second. You have seats that

:25:15. > :25:20.we won and if the Labour Party had got the swing that we got, they

:25:21. > :25:26.would have won this seat. We have been talking about Labour and the

:25:27. > :25:33.fact they have not had a good performance, but we do not know how

:25:34. > :25:38.badly they have done, but I am still puzzled or would like to hear more

:25:39. > :25:48.from you as to why you are losing such a big chunk of your core vote

:25:49. > :25:54.to UKIP? Because they were obviously seeing... They have very good --

:25:55. > :25:58.they had a good European election. Two weeks ago they were saying they

:25:59. > :26:02.were going to win the seat. They were saying this was the start of

:26:03. > :26:06.their march. What we have shown, is when it comes to be elections for

:26:07. > :26:11.Parliament, people will trust us, they know that we are taking tough

:26:12. > :26:18.decisions, but we are seeing employment levels going up and we

:26:19. > :26:27.are seeing confidence in this country that foreign companies are

:26:28. > :26:37.investing in stock we are benefiting. --. . I think for us to

:26:38. > :26:44.win this by-election, 11 months before the General Election gives us

:26:45. > :26:51.very good progress towards the General Election campaign. The Tory

:26:52. > :26:57.party has been criticised for being too harsh, to public school, to

:26:58. > :27:05.Oxbridge and if you win tonight, you have elected another public school

:27:06. > :27:10.MP. If you look across the Conservative Party, it has a wide

:27:11. > :27:23.range of people who make it up, from ex-miners like me, there are not

:27:24. > :27:28.many of us in Parliament these days, but we have got a broad base of

:27:29. > :27:32.people right across the whole spectrum, whether it is doctors in

:27:33. > :27:37.the House of Commons, people from all walks of life and that is what

:27:38. > :27:41.is important. One of the great things David Cameron has done is

:27:42. > :27:48.make us become a more diverse party under his leadership and we now have

:27:49. > :27:53.more women in Parliament. In what way do as you're potentially new MP

:27:54. > :28:03.for Newark, in what way does he add to the diversity? He has got elected

:28:04. > :28:09.and will speak strongly for Newark in Parliament. He grew up in the

:28:10. > :28:17.West Midlands, so I think that is an important contribution that he will

:28:18. > :28:21.make if he is elected later. You're the Transport Secretary, the ease

:28:22. > :28:30.coast main line goes through Newark, it is an issue -- East Coast

:28:31. > :28:39.mainline. Are you going to privatise it again? Yes, that is out to tender

:28:40. > :28:44.at the moment and they are being looked at and studied by the

:28:45. > :28:49.Department. We have seen a huge growth in passengers on the railways

:28:50. > :28:54.since we privatise the railways. 20 years ago when the railways were

:28:55. > :29:00.privatise, there were 750 million passenger journeys, now there are is

:29:01. > :29:04.1.5 mid -- billion passenger journeys. I think that the private

:29:05. > :29:08.sector has done incredibly well for the railways and I think they will

:29:09. > :29:30.get a better service from the competition we are running. Any idea

:29:31. > :29:35.when we will get the result? I do not know the results of the

:29:36. > :29:38.tendering process. It is going through and being studied properly.

:29:39. > :29:44.That is on course to be announced later this year, as far as tonight

:29:45. > :29:50.is concerned, I am hearing about another 60 minutes. You have done

:29:51. > :29:54.these programmes long enough to know that we all have to wait until the

:29:55. > :30:04.returning officer gets up and gives us the result. Hopefully it will be

:30:05. > :30:09.sooner. I am ever hopeful of inside

:30:10. > :30:16.information. We are told we will get the result at about 3.00am at the

:30:17. > :30:22.latest. It is now just 2. 10.00am. Obviously if you have stayed with

:30:23. > :30:29.from the start, you are probably on to the third bolt of blew none, I

:30:30. > :30:34.would put the fourth on ice myself! Now, by-elections like to throw up

:30:35. > :30:40.surprises, that is why we love them so much. It makes them fun to cover.

:30:41. > :30:47.You don't think I am staying up late for the money. Have you seen the

:30:48. > :30:52.latest BBC fees? We have sent Gyles on a trip down memory lane.

:30:53. > :30:58.By-elections outside of the tight confines of the general election

:30:59. > :31:03.cycle, they can make briefly a tiny place you have never heard of and

:31:04. > :31:09.characters you have never seen front page news and hand you the

:31:10. > :31:13.unexpected. Sceptical? Let me refresh your memories... Eric

:31:14. > :31:19.Lubbock. For sheer surprise, Orpington in Kent. A safelily won

:31:20. > :31:25.Conservative seat in 1959, a by-election in 62, saw a massive 22%

:31:26. > :31:30.swing to the liberals, not bad for Eric Lubbock. A local councillor who

:31:31. > :31:38.was the candidate after the liberal who stood in 59 was forced to stand

:31:39. > :31:44.aside after admitting bigamy. The 1967 Hamilton by-election was a

:31:45. > :31:47.watershed. The shock victory of the SNP's winning catapulted the cause

:31:48. > :31:51.of Scottish independence to national prominence for the first time.

:31:52. > :32:00.Baroness today, Shirley Williams back then in 1981. She took Crosby

:32:01. > :32:07.with a massive shock wave as the newly formed SDP found it had an MP.

:32:08. > :32:12.One of the biggest swings in by-election history was Bermondsey

:32:13. > :32:15.in 1983, won by Simon Hughes against Labour's Peter Tatchell. A fight as

:32:16. > :32:19.famous for the controversial nature of the campaign, as for the margin

:32:20. > :32:25.of the victory. The tragedy of the election is that

:32:26. > :32:31.prejudice and piggery, triumphed over tolerance and compassion and

:32:32. > :32:35.that smears and lies triumphed over truth and reason. It has not been a

:32:36. > :32:39.dirty campaign. We fought it straight from the beginning on the

:32:40. > :32:44.same issues and the same way long before they chose their candidate.

:32:45. > :32:49.The conservative I conservatives gained 26 years in crew and

:32:50. > :32:55.Nantwich. Edward Timpson snatched the seat from Labour, a seat held

:32:56. > :32:59.for many years by the late and formidable, Gwyneth Dunwoody.

:33:00. > :33:02.Bradford West in 2012 was Labour territory and most senior

:33:03. > :33:10.strategists assured us that Labour would hold. Then gorge Galloway from

:33:11. > :33:17.the Respect Party beat Labour. This, the most sensation result in

:33:18. > :33:25.British by-election history, bar none represents the Bradford Spring.

:33:26. > :33:32.How does George get away with it? The Eastleigh by-election in 2013

:33:33. > :33:38.was triggered by the resignation of Mr Chris Huhne, following the

:33:39. > :33:43.admission it was not his wife but he who had been at the wheel. Mike

:33:44. > :33:48.Thornton kept the seat for the Lib Dems but with a reduced majority. So

:33:49. > :33:53.the question is if Newark can surprise us and join the list or

:33:54. > :33:58.become another goodbye by-election, forgotten in a fortnight.

:33:59. > :34:03.Now, Gyles with a walk down memory lane of some of the famous historic

:34:04. > :34:07.by-elections that made big news at the time, whether they were of any

:34:08. > :34:14.long-term significance is another matter. We are told we can get the

:34:15. > :34:20.result in about 30 minutes. Let's go back to John Curtis, listening to

:34:21. > :34:24.that walk down memory lane. John if the Conservatives had held on to

:34:25. > :34:29.Newark tonight, I guess we don't file Newark under historic, that is

:34:30. > :34:34.the way it works? That is correct. At most filing Newark as part of a

:34:35. > :34:40.journey but the truth is we don't know how far the UKIP journey is

:34:41. > :34:44.going to go. What UKIP need is a by-election in a seat that is less

:34:45. > :34:50.safe for either Conservative or Labour than Newark is or indeed

:34:51. > :34:59.Eastleigh was. Often you find where UKIP manage to win, the 160

:35:00. > :35:04.councillors that they picked up, it is in places where the Labour and

:35:05. > :35:09.the Conservatives are easily competitive, so with 35% of the vote

:35:10. > :35:12.UKIP are able to come first. They have not had that opportunity in

:35:13. > :35:18.this Parliament. So I think that Newark will be marked down as a

:35:19. > :35:23.minor foot note. But certainly, if UKIP had won, it is not going to go

:35:24. > :35:33.down in the litany of great by-elections that we have non.

:35:34. > :35:38.OK, John. Keep the abacus well oiled. It will be time for the

:35:39. > :35:44.numbers to be crunched. Diane James, it is showing a the polling votes,

:35:45. > :35:51.your verities are pessimistic. Why is that? This evening, I have been

:35:52. > :35:56.out canvassing. It is not what I picked up. And during the European

:35:57. > :36:04.elections and the local campaigning that I did and Eastleigh last year,

:36:05. > :36:10.the people that I am talking to are realistic. Pragmatic in what they

:36:11. > :36:13.are signalling and giving back to us what the other three parties have

:36:14. > :36:18.lost for them. There is an element of you being a

:36:19. > :36:25.protest vote. You attract votes from people who are unhappy with the

:36:26. > :36:31.existing main stream parties. Protest is usually caused by being

:36:32. > :36:37.pessimistic, a protest vote is as you are unhappy with the current

:36:38. > :36:42.state of affairs? The comment that I make and I keep hearing is if you

:36:43. > :36:46.take the three other Westminster parties, recognition that we are the

:36:47. > :36:50.fourth, there is nothing that they could differ enSecretary of State.

:36:51. > :36:54.So you may want to call it protest. I understand where you are coming

:36:55. > :36:59.from. But the point that the voters is saying that they can either go

:37:00. > :37:03.for one of the three, or go for something new and something that we

:37:04. > :37:09.understand what the message is, and they like the message that they are

:37:10. > :37:15.hearing and they are receptive to what we are giving back and that is

:37:16. > :37:20.why they are going to UKIP. Nigel Farage mentioned you having to

:37:21. > :37:27.sit down and hammer out a proper manifesto? Like all three parties.

:37:28. > :37:30.Correct. You want it different from the last manifesto. What is the most

:37:31. > :37:35.important, other than your commitment to a referendum so you

:37:36. > :37:40.can vote to get Britain out of the EU, what is the most important

:37:41. > :37:44.policy you would like to see in the mannestow? Myself personally?

:37:45. > :37:52.Correct. The NHS. The state of the NHS under

:37:53. > :37:57.the coalition government is calamitous.

:37:58. > :38:02.What is that policy? Nigel made the point that we would launch the

:38:03. > :38:05.policy at the Doncaster conference. All of the other parties are doing

:38:06. > :38:15.the same. I will not be giving you... But the NHS is not a policy

:38:16. > :38:19.but an abbreviation? OK, the National Health Service. What is

:38:20. > :38:23.needed to deliver good primary and secondary care. One point I would be

:38:24. > :38:27.happy to be drawn on is something that the voters are saying is that

:38:28. > :38:31.they are fed up with the level of bureaucracy and the number of

:38:32. > :38:36.bureaucrats, manager, number crunchers in the NHS. They want

:38:37. > :38:40.medics and nurses. If that is something we can incorporate into

:38:41. > :38:43.policy, that would be a good news story.

:38:44. > :38:50.Your party have talked about charging to see a GP? No we have

:38:51. > :38:58.not. Let's put it into context. One of your Labour MPs suggested putting

:38:59. > :39:04.an extra percent on national insurance... He is the Deputy

:39:05. > :39:09.Leader, Frank Field is not the leader of the Labour Party and never

:39:10. > :39:14.will be. How can Labour make hypothecated

:39:15. > :39:22.taxation and put 1% as Matthew admits, we are trying to grow the

:39:23. > :39:28.economy, trying to get... Is it policy to charge... No, it is not.

:39:29. > :39:31.Why has he it on the website? I do not know.

:39:32. > :39:35.Now let's have a look. not know.

:39:36. > :39:41.look at what we believe to be the Victor, although it is not

:39:42. > :39:48.confirmed, there is Robert Jenrick. The Conservative candidate. He is

:39:49. > :39:51.aged 32. He fought the contested Newcastle-under-Lyme with a swing

:39:52. > :39:59.from Labour to the Conservatives of 9. 6%. That is his wife who is with

:40:00. > :40:03.him. He is smiling. He looks like he has the Mantell of a winner. There

:40:04. > :40:08.he is probably relieved since UKIP put a lot of effort into trying to

:40:09. > :40:12.take the seat from him. No doubt hearing from him later as it goes

:40:13. > :40:17.on. Let me ask you this, John Curtis

:40:18. > :40:23.mentioned how traditionally there is a bit of a swing back to a sitting

:40:24. > :40:28.government as you approach an election. You are a couple of points

:40:29. > :40:34.ahead in the polls. If you have the swing plus 11 months of a growing

:40:35. > :40:38.economy and falling unemployment and low inflation, this election is

:40:39. > :40:43.anything but in the bag for you? Of course it is not in the bag. Yes a

:40:44. > :40:47.mountain to claim. We are not going to be complacent. We were hammered

:40:48. > :40:53.by David Cameron and the Tories in 2010. Even though he did not win? He

:40:54. > :41:01.didn't because of the electoral system. We got a battering. Losing

:41:02. > :41:06.seats we have held since 1983. I have been made aware of the mountain

:41:07. > :41:12.to climb. But the two-way that we had with John that lots of people on

:41:13. > :41:17.Twitter rather liked, they said I lost out to him but in the marginal

:41:18. > :41:19.seats, we are doing well and the candidates working hard. Making

:41:20. > :41:26.progress. OK. But you must be worried that the

:41:27. > :41:32.course of the economy for the moment, who knows what will happen

:41:33. > :41:36.to it after the election but that is another matter but between now and

:41:37. > :41:43.May of next year it is looking Rosie? Well the growth is picking

:41:44. > :41:48.up... It is the highest... But it is not being felt. Really? Why? Because

:41:49. > :41:52.we get it on the doorstep. People don't feel they are better off. They

:41:53. > :41:55.feel worse off. They think that things have been tough for them.

:41:56. > :42:01.They couldn't have the confidence it will get better for them.

:42:02. > :42:09.You say that but the business surfaways of consumer confidence

:42:10. > :42:16.show it at record levels. And that is done by asking people and why are

:42:17. > :42:22.retail sales up 6%? We have seen the statistics and people are ?1600

:42:23. > :42:27.worse off because inflation has outstripped increases in pay so. Any

:42:28. > :42:31.economic pick-up is not being felt in the Midlands and in the north and

:42:32. > :42:35.in the Midlands and the north and parts of the south-west is where

:42:36. > :42:39.there are lots of marginal seats, that is why I think that the Tories

:42:40. > :42:44.have a problem. The fastest growing part of the

:42:45. > :42:48.country is Yorkshire Humberside. But it is not felt there.

:42:49. > :42:54.If they are not feeling it, why aren't you ten points ahead? We have

:42:55. > :42:57.to remember the context we are in. We had a bad election result in

:42:58. > :43:03.2010. Why have you not rebounded? We are

:43:04. > :43:09.making progress. We are the biggest party in local government. Putting

:43:10. > :43:13.on 2,000-odd councillors. We have made over 300 gains. They are not

:43:14. > :43:18.the biggest party of local government and also a lot further

:43:19. > :43:28.ahead in the polls a year or two ago. And the key point is... The LGA

:43:29. > :43:35.stands for... Local Government. I am not across the details of the

:43:36. > :43:40.internal politics but the key point on the economy is that it is

:43:41. > :43:43.recovering. People are starting to feel it. Of course it has been

:43:44. > :43:48.tough. But the central point is this: We have a plan that I refer

:43:49. > :43:53.to, about turning the economy around and the Labour Party has no plan and

:43:54. > :43:57.no economic credibility. And the public have rumbled that.

:43:58. > :44:05.We will come back to this. We are now joined by the Lib Dem candidate,

:44:06. > :44:10.David Watts. Let's go to him. Mr Watts, welcome to the This Week

:44:11. > :44:16.By-election Special. Have you come sixth? Can you confirm that? I don't

:44:17. > :44:19.know yet, I will have to wait and see but I think that we have beaten

:44:20. > :44:24.Bus-Pass Elvis Party. Well, that could be counted as a

:44:25. > :44:29.triumph. It is my first target.

:44:30. > :44:34.Have you saved your deposit? It does not look like it. We will not get

:44:35. > :44:43.5%, I don't think. That is disappointing. We were not expecting

:44:44. > :44:47.to do well. We have been squeezed. A lot of voters will be voting next

:44:48. > :44:52.year in the general election. Do you believe that? I do yes. We

:44:53. > :44:55.have a great record in Government. Achieving a lot that we are not

:44:56. > :44:59.getting credit for. But our voters know so much of what the Government

:45:00. > :45:04.is doing right it is down to the Liberal Democrats. Why has it not

:45:05. > :45:09.resonated with the people of Newark if you have come sixth, we don't

:45:10. > :45:13.know for sure but if you have it is clear that the message is not

:45:14. > :45:16.getting through, or getting through and people don't believe it? I

:45:17. > :45:21.suspect that the message is not getting through.

:45:22. > :45:25.We have not been able to art late ourselves strongly. But the main

:45:26. > :45:30.thing that a lot of people have been talking about is to make sure that

:45:31. > :45:35.UKIP did not win so. They have voted tactically.

:45:36. > :45:49.In your view where do you think that the votes went? To which parties?

:45:50. > :45:56.Most of went to the Conservatives. Not as much as stayed with us as we

:45:57. > :46:03.would like. We are thinking around 2%. We have plenty of votes to win

:46:04. > :46:11.next year. The glass is half full in your universe! It always is. You

:46:12. > :46:14.agree with Nigel Farage that the Conservatives have won tonight that

:46:15. > :46:20.UKIP have come second, is that correct? It looks like it, but UKIP

:46:21. > :46:25.have been telling us that they were going to win, cause a political

:46:26. > :46:38.earthquake, but let us face it, Nigel Farage has not done what he

:46:39. > :46:42.said he would. They have picked up thousands of votes. They were

:46:43. > :46:49.delivering letters today saying that they would not -- they would win,

:46:50. > :46:54.but they have not. Will you fight the General Election here? I said

:46:55. > :46:59.that I would discuss it with my family over the next few weeks. I am

:47:00. > :47:21.sure your wife will have strong opinions on it. She always does!

:47:22. > :47:32.John Curtice, he says that the Conservatives have more councillors.

:47:33. > :47:43.You ask me about why Labour controls one council. That is internal

:47:44. > :47:48.politics. We are controlling the Local Government Association and we

:47:49. > :47:53.have taken over 2000 councillors. We have made gains in a lot of areas.

:47:54. > :48:02.You accept that the Tories have more councillors. If John says so. Why do

:48:03. > :48:12.we control the Local Government Association then? There is a bit of

:48:13. > :48:16.truth on both sides. Across England, Scotland and Wales there are more

:48:17. > :48:20.Conservative councillors, however, in the places where Labour is

:48:21. > :48:25.stronger, like Birmingham, Manchester and much of London,

:48:26. > :48:29.though wards are much bigger than in rural areas with the Conservatives

:48:30. > :48:33.are stronger and therefore the number of councillors that the party

:48:34. > :48:38.has is not necessarily indicative of its strength in the local electoral

:48:39. > :48:41.ballot box, because it is the opposite of the problem the

:48:42. > :49:02.Conservatives face in parliamentary elections, there are seats are areas

:49:03. > :49:04.have more councillors per person, so therefore, it is an academic

:49:05. > :49:08.argument, not a good measure of strength. It matters to all of our

:49:09. > :49:14.councillors. If I got it wrong, I am sorry. We have made progress in some

:49:15. > :49:20.areas. Labour have gone backwards in the last couple of years, as the

:49:21. > :49:26.economy have recovered. What is your definition of that? Their lead was

:49:27. > :49:33.bigger and has shrunk over the last couple of years stop we have work to

:49:34. > :49:37.do, but we took tough decisions, everyone knows that and the

:49:38. > :49:46.long-term economic plan is clearly working. We are making progress.

:49:47. > :49:50.This is exactly what governments tend to do, it does not always

:49:51. > :49:54.happen, but you take tough decisions, the right decisions in

:49:55. > :49:58.the national interest to turn the economy around, when you have

:49:59. > :50:03.inherited a mess like we did, and it is clearly starting to work and it

:50:04. > :50:11.is starting to have an impact on the polls. We were only 1.5 points

:50:12. > :50:16.behind in the European elections and that was an important step. Your

:50:17. > :50:27.party has made clear if you win the next election, there will be a

:50:28. > :50:31.European referendum, but people tonight, even though you have won,

:50:32. > :50:38.Conservative voters are still voting for UKIP. That suggests that either

:50:39. > :50:45.people do not believe you, or trust you to deliver, so they vote for

:50:46. > :50:50.UKIP, or it goes way beyond Europe, that there is a distrust and even a

:50:51. > :50:56.dislike of the mainstream political establishment. In by-elections, you

:50:57. > :51:01.tend to get these results that the government finds it harder to get

:51:02. > :51:09.its boat out, that is always true. Also, the central point is that it

:51:10. > :51:17.looks like we have one tonight -- vote. -- won. When you get to a

:51:18. > :51:21.Westminster election and this will be even more true in the General

:51:22. > :51:25.Election, people look towards a proper party of government like the

:51:26. > :51:30.Conservatives and I will give you this example, at the General

:51:31. > :51:34.Election, there are only two credible options for prime

:51:35. > :51:38.minister, David Cameron are Ed Miliband and the argument for David

:51:39. > :51:43.Cameron will help get support from all sorts of people who simply do

:51:44. > :51:53.not see Ed Miliband as a credible option -- Prime Minister. They may

:51:54. > :52:04.not return in droves to the mainstream parties. They may want to

:52:05. > :52:22.make a protest, because they are fed up with you will stop --. What is

:52:23. > :52:26.your answer? The central point is that in a General Election, people

:52:27. > :52:30.are voting for who will be prime minister and who will be running the

:52:31. > :52:35.country and that is one of the reasons why it governments tend to

:52:36. > :52:41.win back support in general elections -- Prime Minister stop of

:52:42. > :52:47.course there is that sense and I knowledge that and on the 2010

:52:48. > :52:59.election, the Liberal Democrats did well --. . They lost seats! Those

:53:00. > :53:06.people promising that they will change politics, that was the

:53:07. > :53:12.Liberal Democrats. Diane James. You do not seem to get it, 86% in the

:53:13. > :53:18.most recent poll in the last few days, 86% of UKIP voters will stick

:53:19. > :53:26.with us for the next General Election. They have stated that,

:53:27. > :53:32.they will not come back. UKIP is here to stay. It is taking voters

:53:33. > :53:38.from all the three parties, the Liberal Democrats, they are a spent

:53:39. > :53:43.force, but there is almost as selective hearing that the

:53:44. > :53:50.Conservative Party have. They do not understand or want to hear that UKIP

:53:51. > :53:56.is a new force. I want to go back to Newark, but John Curtice has been

:53:57. > :54:03.listening and smiling. I want to get a quick reaction. We have heard an

:54:04. > :54:07.awful lot about how this is the first time that a Conservative

:54:08. > :54:11.government has held onto a by-election in a long time. Can I

:54:12. > :54:20.remind you that the Labour Party when it was in power, did manage to

:54:21. > :54:25.hold on to 18 seats in that period. We are being told as much about the

:54:26. > :54:30.per performance of past Conservative governments, rather than something

:54:31. > :54:33.inevitable about governments -- bad performance. Can I remind the

:54:34. > :54:38.parties that at the last General Election, the last occasion one we

:54:39. > :54:42.were told it was a choice between Conservative and Labour, only two

:54:43. > :54:47.thirds of the electorate actually voted for either party? That

:54:48. > :54:50.proportion has been in long-term decline. We should not necessarily

:54:51. > :54:54.assume that that simply saying to voters, you might like UKIP, but at

:54:55. > :55:00.the end of the day it is a waste of time voting for them, that will not

:55:01. > :55:05.work any more for an electorate which has become increasingly

:55:06. > :55:08.willing to vote for parties other than the traditional Westminster

:55:09. > :55:15.parties and I think they have to come up with stronger arguments.

:55:16. > :55:29.Thank you. We are going back to Newark. Thank you. Within the next

:55:30. > :55:34.20 minutes, hopefully we will not be waiting much longer. We know where

:55:35. > :55:38.people are sitting, there is a broad consensus that the Conservatives

:55:39. > :55:43.have won. Nigel Farage has conceded. Labour believe they have

:55:44. > :55:48.come third, they think they have not done too badly. I am here with Chris

:55:49. > :55:57.Bryant. You should be the main opposition, but you have been pushed

:55:58. > :56:03.into third place by Kip. This is the 44th safest Conservative seat in the

:56:04. > :56:13.country -- UKIP. They threw everything at it. I saw Matt

:56:14. > :56:17.Hancock, who is meant to be the Business Minister, delivering

:56:18. > :56:25.leaflets on his own, up to three days. What is wrong with that? It

:56:26. > :56:33.shows how purely David Cameron is doing. There will be the majority of

:56:34. > :56:36.people here, it is a safe seat, there will be a majority of people

:56:37. > :56:41.who are fed up with the way he is running the country that they will

:56:42. > :56:49.have voted for change -- badly. This is a good night for the

:56:50. > :56:54.Conservatives. In a year's time, the Conservatives will not have a

:56:55. > :57:02.winning streak. Have you got the winning streak? You have been pushed

:57:03. > :57:06.down to third by UKIP stop I was nervous that they would be a

:57:07. > :57:11.significant squeeze on our vote because there has been switching.

:57:12. > :57:19.Liberals have voted Labour and we all know that. We have seen the sad

:57:20. > :57:25.death of Liberal England. It was the seat held by William Gladstone.

:57:26. > :57:38.Hardly any liberals left. Liberals are voting Labour. UKIP have this

:57:39. > :57:41.wind in their sales on the back of the European elections and was a

:57:42. > :57:45.danger we would be badly squeeze, but I vote has held up. We had the

:57:46. > :58:04.best candidate -- but I vote has held up. We had the

:58:05. > :58:09.squeezed. Lots of Tory MPs have said to me, there is a problem with our

:58:10. > :58:20.candidate, but your candidate is great. I won't tell you who it was.

:58:21. > :58:25.candidate, but your candidate is I have no concerns about Labour

:58:26. > :58:29.candidates, but after the meetings here, people came out of the meeting

:58:30. > :58:35.saying I never thought I would say this, but I am going to vote Labour

:58:36. > :58:38.because he is the best candidate. Do you think people are politically

:58:39. > :58:45.engaged to take up your tactical voting? Do you think that UKIP have

:58:46. > :58:50.just done better than you? I have knocked on hundreds of doors and I

:58:51. > :58:55.am only reporting what people have said to me. Some people said they

:58:56. > :59:00.were tactically voting UKIP to give David Cameron a kicking. People have

:59:01. > :59:03.been going all over lots of different places and out of that

:59:04. > :59:09.there was a danger that our vote would be squeezed dramatically and

:59:10. > :59:13.that has happened in other constituencies, but in this case, I

:59:14. > :59:21.think the Labour vote will have held up. There is only so long you can

:59:22. > :59:29.call UKIP protest vote or a tactical vote will stop I did not say it.

:59:30. > :59:51.call UKIP protest vote or a tactical said it. --. Full. Do you think they

:59:52. > :59:52.are a protest vote? There was the hospital vote.

:59:53. > :00:01.are a protest vote? There was the here four times. He could not go to

:00:02. > :00:07.the hospital because he closed the casualty department and wasted ?5

:00:08. > :00:08.million here, sacking people because of his reorganisation only to

:00:09. > :00:12.million here, sacking people because higher than later. That is

:00:13. > :00:19.million here, sacking people because of thing that angers voters. That

:00:20. > :00:22.makes people vote UKIP. Some have voted for the end he chairs guy who

:00:23. > :00:44.will have beat in voted for the end he chairs guy who

:00:45. > :00:59.here chess guy. -- NHS. We are still trying to work out what a pentacle.

:01:00. > :01:04.Accord According to this, you had the best candidate, there was a cost

:01:05. > :01:09.of living crisis, according to you, the recovery is not rebust, it does

:01:10. > :01:16.not cover the whole nation, it is concentrated in the south, it is not

:01:17. > :01:20.covered according to you, John Ashworth, why are you coming a poor

:01:21. > :01:29.third? We don't know that yet. Well, if all that is true, why are

:01:30. > :01:36.you third? We won a by-election in Glasgow, the Tories were hammered.

:01:37. > :01:45.You say rocklied... Labour wins by-election in Glasgow, shock

:01:46. > :01:50.horror! But the Tories got nowhere in a seat 12 months out of the 2010

:01:51. > :01:55.general election. I am just making the point this is a safe Tory seat.

:01:56. > :02:00.I expect them to romp home. If we are coming in third it is a

:02:01. > :02:04.disappointing result. We have to work harder to get the message

:02:05. > :02:09.across and get to understand what is going on with UKIP. To say to

:02:10. > :02:17.Matthew, two youngish politicians in suits, both of whom have worked in

:02:18. > :02:23.politics, you were George Osborne's right-hand man, dismissing a protest

:02:24. > :02:29.is not going to cut the mustard. We have to really understand why the

:02:30. > :02:35.people are voting UKIP. The challenge at the flex election, the

:02:36. > :02:38.decision is between a Labour and a Conservative government but we

:02:39. > :02:43.cannot assume that all of these people who have voted UKIP will come

:02:44. > :02:47.back to the two parties. There is a problem in British politics, we have

:02:48. > :02:54.to understand it. You keep on saying that. Don't you

:02:55. > :03:00.understand it yet? I suspect there are a lot of reasons why people are

:03:01. > :03:03.voting UKIP. It is not just Europe. The Tory Party thought that they had

:03:04. > :03:09.killed UKIP dead with the referendum, it has not. There are a

:03:10. > :03:13.lot of people who also voted Liberal Democrats have shifted to UKIP. So

:03:14. > :03:18.why is this group in society deciding to go to UKIP, that the

:03:19. > :03:23.three main parties don't have the answers for them.

:03:24. > :03:26.The mainstream politicians consistently ask the questions in

:03:27. > :03:31.programmes like this but it is taking a long time to get an answer,

:03:32. > :03:37.can you mark the card for them? I have had the best explanation as to

:03:38. > :03:41.why we are a success. Which is what? The other three

:03:42. > :03:46.Westminster parties claim that they are listening. But it is like

:03:47. > :03:49.listening but not hearing. They are not prepared to tackle what the

:03:50. > :03:54.voters want to tackle. And going back to the campaign in the European

:03:55. > :04:00.election, to give an example, I had my Labour colleague and Conservative

:04:01. > :04:04.colleague trialing the general election message, they did not want

:04:05. > :04:11.to talk about the European issues. Compared that with UKIP, we were

:04:12. > :04:14.prepared to talk about Europe, about the issues associated with European

:04:15. > :04:20.membership and that is what the voters wanted to talk about.

:04:21. > :04:28.In your judgment, how much is the recent success offin down to your

:04:29. > :04:32.core belief, which is anti-EU or a more generalised disillusion with

:04:33. > :04:36.the political establishment? It is a combination of both.

:04:37. > :04:42.I understand but can you give us a balance between one and the other?

:04:43. > :04:49.Cash I put my answer in the context of the Eastleigh by-election. That

:04:50. > :04:53.is now 13 months ago. That is the one you fought.

:04:54. > :04:58.. We started off the campaign in terms of the core message from the

:04:59. > :05:03.EU. It took a matter of days before the voters in Eastleigh were saying,

:05:04. > :05:08.actually, I know where the problem is, I know why I can't get my

:05:09. > :05:13.children to school, why I can't get an NHS appointment, why I am down on

:05:14. > :05:18.the listing of the housing ladder or trying to get a home of some

:05:19. > :05:22.description. They were able to link it to EU membership. One of the

:05:23. > :05:26.issues that the Labour Party has is that they do not understand or

:05:27. > :05:30.appreciate that their core vote is hit by individuals who cannot get a

:05:31. > :05:37.job or have wages that have been brought down because of low skilled

:05:38. > :05:40.immigration under the EU, and the Conservative colleagues are still on

:05:41. > :05:51.a different planet over the whole thing. We want to tackle some of

:05:52. > :05:56.these abuses in the labour market. There is selective deafness it is

:05:57. > :05:59.there. How many times do European Commissioners and Angela Merkel,

:06:00. > :06:04.even when addressing the House of Commons, how many times did they

:06:05. > :06:08.have to say the message: There is no chance of renegotiation. We have

:06:09. > :06:14.even had that this week with the whole issue with the Conservative

:06:15. > :06:20.Party tying itself up in knots in the terms of the appointment of

:06:21. > :06:25.Jean-Claude Juncker. There are clear answers. The first

:06:26. > :06:29.on the point of Labour. Fascinating. 11 months from the general election,

:06:30. > :06:37.the Labour Party is still asking the question es about why it cannot

:06:38. > :06:40.attract the voters votes. In terms of addressing the concerns of

:06:41. > :06:46.voters, on Europe, the clear promise of a referendum... It is not a

:06:47. > :06:51.promise it is a pledge. It has been broken by David Cameron twice. No.

:06:52. > :06:55.He was clear he would give a referendum if the Lisbon Treaty had

:06:56. > :07:02.not been ratified. It was, by Gordon Brown, we did not get into office.

:07:03. > :07:07.Then why include it in the general election manifesto? It was not in

:07:08. > :07:11.the manifesto. So let's not have that.

:07:12. > :07:25.The European mannestow. But that was before. It was a cynical employ.

:07:26. > :07:29.Thank you. If I can answer. We tried to delay the manifesto but it was

:07:30. > :07:33.ratified. On the European question we are clear there will be a

:07:34. > :07:39.referendum should we win the election in 2015. That is tied to

:07:40. > :07:46.the question of immigration. On immigration we are bringing down...

:07:47. > :07:50.212,000. It is hard. Not least as we are in coalition with a party that

:07:51. > :07:56.believes strongly in immigration. Hold on. So that is on Europe and

:07:57. > :08:01.immigration. Then on living standards, the action that we have

:08:02. > :08:05.taken, tough, yes but absolutely delivering and starting to be felt

:08:06. > :08:10.in people's pockets, just starting to, there is a lot more to do on the

:08:11. > :08:14.long-term economic plan. I know we repeat it all the time. That is

:08:15. > :08:18.because it is important. Not just for the election but for the

:08:19. > :08:24.prospects and the economic security of millions of people. You have the

:08:25. > :08:28.Labour Party looking puzzled and you know saying that they don't know why

:08:29. > :08:32.things are going wrong for them, why they are losing support.

:08:33. > :08:37.We are not saying that. We are talking about a phenomena, you are

:08:38. > :08:45.doing the party political rubbish. The argument you made is based on

:08:46. > :08:52.false asomes -- assumptions. Like saying we promised something... You

:08:53. > :08:57.did! You have had a good run. Let me ask you this, what if the Lib Demes,

:08:58. > :09:02.what have the Lib Demes stopped you doing on immigration? We would have

:09:03. > :09:09.been tougher on immigration. What would you have done? You can't go

:09:10. > :09:13.into the specifics. They were not clear government policies. What

:09:14. > :09:21.would you have liked to have done? We are clear we would have gone

:09:22. > :09:26.further. How? We could not formulate it as government policy.

:09:27. > :09:30.Andrew, please ask the question what has happened to David Cameron as

:09:31. > :09:36.pledge to cut immigration to 100,000? There is another instance

:09:37. > :09:39.where a pledge has been made, it has suddenly disappeared and that

:09:40. > :09:43.because it is gone, because he cannot deliver, that is the problem

:09:44. > :09:47.that the voters have got, with his pledges.

:09:48. > :09:53.He is clear that getting immigration down to the tens of thousands is the

:09:54. > :09:57.goal... In 11 months? It has not been possible to do as much on

:09:58. > :10:04.immigration or welfare as we would have liked to have done as we have

:10:05. > :10:08.been in coalition that is one of the elements, the dynamics in politics.

:10:09. > :10:15.Immigration is going in the opposite direction that you want it to go. In

:10:16. > :10:22.2013 it rose by 50,000. Net immigration is now 212,000. I think

:10:23. > :10:28.it would be honest to admit you will not hit under 100,000 by the

:10:29. > :10:34.election? My pint is we have taken action to bring it down. Hold on.

:10:35. > :10:39.Your target was clear. You explicitly said in the election and

:10:40. > :10:44.repeated it again and again after being elected, that is that

:10:45. > :10:48.immigration, net immigration would be below 100,000, in the tens of

:10:49. > :11:01.thousands by the time of the next election. Last year, after having

:11:02. > :11:10.fallen in 2010, 2011 and 2012, it is now back up to over 200,000.

:11:11. > :11:14.You have not got the target. Like the election result tonight.

:11:15. > :11:20.But what we have done is said if you come to the country you must pay in

:11:21. > :11:24.before you can get benefits. We have made progress with an Immigration

:11:25. > :11:30.Bill on access to public services so paying in before you can get out.

:11:31. > :11:35.But you have not hit the target. We are clear that a Conservative

:11:36. > :11:40.Party in Government without the Liberal Democrats would go further.

:11:41. > :11:45.But you have not been clear. You have not given an example of what

:11:46. > :11:50.you would would have done if you had not been, in your words, stopped by

:11:51. > :11:55.the Lib Demes. But the central point is this: On

:11:56. > :11:59.the Irish ups that the votes care about on Europe and immigration, and

:12:00. > :12:04.on the economy, we have a clear plan. We know the direction we wish

:12:05. > :12:08.to go in. We think it is a plan that can attract more and more voters

:12:09. > :12:14.over the next 11 months. It is clear that Labour do not have a plan.

:12:15. > :12:19.Can I say while you have been talking, we are floating pictures

:12:20. > :12:24.from the count in Newark. We can see that they are putting on the

:12:25. > :12:29.finishing touches. Only a few papers to go. Probably checking and

:12:30. > :12:36.cross-checking it may not be long before we get the results.

:12:37. > :12:40.The fact is that John, on immigration, the rise of UKIP has

:12:41. > :12:46.made you both speak more toughly about immigration than you would

:12:47. > :12:53.have done otherwise? Well the Labour Party said it felt it goes things

:12:54. > :12:56.wrong on immigration. It should have pushed for transitional controls. So

:12:57. > :13:03.yes, we have held up our hands on that. We have said we would like

:13:04. > :13:08.tougher transitional controls in the future if other countries join the

:13:09. > :13:13.EU but the thing about immigration. The worry about what Matthew is

:13:14. > :13:23.talking about. I represent Leicester a city with energy, that has a

:13:24. > :13:30.diversity which is dynamic as families have made Leicester their

:13:31. > :13:36.home... It is prosperous so, why try to oust UKIP? I am going into it.

:13:37. > :13:41.You cannot have it both ways. Saying you have made mistakes and let the

:13:42. > :13:47.numbers in, then say that immigration is a great thing.

:13:48. > :13:53.We think we have made changes but there are abuses in the Labour

:13:54. > :13:59.markets, in the way had in which companies advertise only in the EU

:14:00. > :14:03.for foreign Labour. This must be sorted out and representing

:14:04. > :14:08.Leicester is a city that has benefitted from families across the

:14:09. > :14:12.world making it their home. The problem with the Government is that

:14:13. > :14:16.the Government's policies make it more difficult for students from

:14:17. > :14:24.India to study at the Leicester units. You talk about increasing

:14:25. > :14:31.trade with India, I support that agenda being a Leicester MP. But I

:14:32. > :14:49.have spoken to the universities in Leicester and the businesses, and

:14:50. > :14:54.they tell me that the students and the -- the students cannot get the

:14:55. > :14:59.visas. So you two dance around the head of

:15:00. > :15:03.a pin with this issue? I have not. We want immigration down. It is

:15:04. > :15:10.straightforward. But you are not? I wish we had not

:15:11. > :15:16.such uncontrolled issues over this under the Labour Party. That has

:15:17. > :15:23.made this such a political... Are you going to negotiate the free

:15:24. > :15:30.movement of Labour should the Prime Minister have if he is elected? Not

:15:31. > :15:35.only be are we clear that when people come to this country from

:15:36. > :15:41.within the EU and from outside of the EU, they must contribute before

:15:42. > :15:50.taking out. But also a consensus for this across the EU.

:15:51. > :15:55.That is fine. Diane James is smiling, almost

:15:56. > :16:01.giggling. Can I ask you, is it... Can I ask you this...

:16:02. > :16:06.ALL SPEAK AT ONCE. Old on it is clear to all

:16:07. > :16:11.independent commentators that there, and to Conservatives who are honest

:16:12. > :16:16.and private, that there is no way they can hit the promise of

:16:17. > :16:22.immigration by to 15. That is Ont doubt. But since net immigration

:16:23. > :16:36.rose by 50,000 last year to 212,000. Is it is a good thing or a bad

:16:37. > :16:45.thing? It is good? I think it is benefited Leicester. I am not going

:16:46. > :16:49.to get into a game on trying to out manoeuvre UKIP on immigration. It

:16:50. > :16:59.can be good, but it has to be managed and we cannot have abuses of

:17:00. > :17:05.it. We want controlled immigration. That is not it exactly. We should

:17:06. > :17:10.not have exploitative practices. We have to look at the issues around

:17:11. > :17:19.benefits. That is bunching the issue. The Conservatives give us an

:17:20. > :17:25.idea of the number will stop they fail to make it, it is going in the

:17:26. > :17:28.opposite direction. They give us an indication of the right number, you

:17:29. > :17:41.will not give us any indication at all. We may well do in the next 12

:17:42. > :17:52.months. That may well be something that we do. It is interesting in

:17:53. > :17:59.terms of UKIP's performance, there are very few immigrants in that

:18:00. > :18:03.town, UKIP want to get Britain out of Europe, all the latest opinion

:18:04. > :18:14.polls show that there is a majority for staying in Europe. Why are they

:18:15. > :18:18.doing so well? You say there is a majority for staying in, but UKIP

:18:19. > :18:29.have got nowhere near 50% of the vote and you made a mistake by

:18:30. > :18:36.saying that Newark is 96% white, why is there in immigration issue? You

:18:37. > :18:43.can be an immigrant and white, you are confusing it with race, that is

:18:44. > :18:54.dangerous. There is an enormous Polish community. Immigration comes

:18:55. > :19:06.from all over. Even UKIP would support immigrants who were fighting

:19:07. > :19:11.the Nazis! I take the points. Let us go to Newark. James Landale is

:19:12. > :19:24.there. Can you hear as? Give us the latest. -- us.

:19:25. > :19:31.We will get all the agents summoned up to the stage to look at the

:19:32. > :19:33.opportunity to challenge it and then opportunity to challenge it and then

:19:34. > :19:36.we will get all the candidates on opportunity to challenge it and then

:19:37. > :19:42.stage in about 15 minutes. The long wait will be over. As we do have

:19:43. > :19:46.this long wait, we were told we would get the result by three

:19:47. > :19:53.o'clock, my fear is that every time we come back, you will add another

:19:54. > :19:59.15 minutes! Is there any doubt that the Conservatives have won? No. It

:20:00. > :20:05.is pretty clear that they have. Look at the tables behind me. The figures

:20:06. > :20:10.that have been thrown around by the parties who have made their own

:20:11. > :20:18.calculations is that the Tories may be in the late 30s or 40%, UKIP in

:20:19. > :20:21.the early 30s and the interesting question is what happens after that.

:20:22. > :20:26.Labour are fairly confident that their vote has held firm, they may

:20:27. > :20:33.have lost percentage points from the votes they got in 2010, then after

:20:34. > :20:39.that it gets unclear, they think that potentially one of the

:20:40. > :20:44.Independent candidates, Paul Baggaley has come forth and then a

:20:45. > :20:48.tight race for fifth and sixth position between the Liberal

:20:49. > :20:50.Democrats and the Green Party. In terms of what the

:20:51. > :20:53.Democrats and the Green Party. In about their estimate of the vote,

:20:54. > :21:00.that is. It looks as though the about their estimate of the vote,

:21:01. > :21:02.Conservatives have won by about their estimate of the vote,

:21:03. > :21:10.enough majority for their not to be a recount.

:21:11. > :21:14.a recount over lost deposits? That is always a possibility, but so far

:21:15. > :21:15.this evening, none of the parties I have

:21:16. > :21:19.this evening, none of the parties I expecting one.

:21:20. > :21:26.this evening, none of the parties I figures being on the margin. To keep

:21:27. > :21:32.your deposit, you will need around 2000 votes, anyone underneath that

:21:33. > :21:37.will be doing badly. Thank you, we will be back with you in about 15

:21:38. > :21:50.minutes. Then you will tell us it will be another 15 minutes, or not!

:21:51. > :21:54.I will try not to. We know that Labour will only give a

:21:55. > :22:00.if there was a substantial movement of power, we know that the

:22:01. > :22:04.Conservatives want to renegotiate our terms of entry and put the

:22:05. > :22:13.referendum to the people, how would UKIP get a referendum? We would like

:22:14. > :22:35.to see Article 50 River. How would you bring it about? -- revote will

:22:36. > :22:42.stop -- -- revoked. Just supposing there are 20 or 30 UKIP MEPs in the

:22:43. > :22:46.General Election and it is a case of which party will deliver the

:22:47. > :22:55.referendum. They may come to us and ask us to support it. Stop that is

:22:56. > :23:03.where I think UKIP could achieve what it wants to achieve. You need a

:23:04. > :23:11.fairer block of UKIP MPs in the Commons. If you look at the local

:23:12. > :23:15.elections. I want to talk about the south-east. If you look at the map

:23:16. > :23:27.where we performed, there are number of seats there which are quite

:23:28. > :23:32.clearly able for UKIP to take. If you were the largest party but did

:23:33. > :23:38.not have an overall majority and UKIP has done incredibly well, would

:23:39. > :23:49.you have to do a deal? We are campaigning to win the election. I

:23:50. > :24:07.will not go into what will happen after the election. What do you mean

:24:08. > :24:12.by risky? Risky in the sense that it is quite a stretch to see UKIP

:24:13. > :24:18.getting that number of MPs, most people do not think that will

:24:19. > :24:22.happen. If getting a referendum is what gets you out of bed in the

:24:23. > :24:28.morning, I am not sure how many it does, but if that is what works, the

:24:29. > :24:34.one way to be sure of a referendum is to vote for him? Maybe we could

:24:35. > :24:40.ask John Curtice to confirm this, it is my understanding that Matthew

:24:41. > :24:48.Goodwin, another political analyst, in the book that he recently

:24:49. > :24:57.co-authored, the chapter I read, he identified 30 seats which UKIP could

:24:58. > :25:02.take. Let us go to John Curtice. With a fair wind behind them as they

:25:03. > :25:09.approach the General Election, what could UKIP reasonably hope to do? It

:25:10. > :25:17.depends. If UKIP were in a Westminster election and able to get

:25:18. > :25:24.the 20% plus Mark, they begin to be in the market for Westminster seats,

:25:25. > :25:34.even though the votes are geographically evenly spread. There

:25:35. > :25:39.are constituencies starting in Grimsby and going down the east

:25:40. > :25:46.coast until you get into east Anglia where there is an emergence of UKIP

:25:47. > :25:53.strength. If UKIP are at 14%, it is not clear that that geographical

:25:54. > :25:58.concentration is enough for them to pick up a parliamentary seat. We can

:25:59. > :26:03.point to constituencies like Grimsby, were you add the votes up

:26:04. > :26:09.and they are the largest party, but that is in the context of elections

:26:10. > :26:13.where they are doing better than the current standing in opinion polls.

:26:14. > :26:17.If Labour gets a majority, because you have taken away seats from the

:26:18. > :26:27.Conservatives and your vote has made a difference, you do not get a

:26:28. > :26:31.referendum at all stop I do think that Ed Miliband is going to have to

:26:32. > :26:51.come off the fence and address the issue and he cannot continue to file

:26:52. > :26:57.each the issue. -- fudge. There is a clear message coming from voters and

:26:58. > :27:02.Labour has to address that. I think it is more complex than just the

:27:03. > :27:08.European Union. The Tories would have finished you off otherwise. The

:27:09. > :27:13.question still stands. I will go back to the point that the

:27:14. > :27:17.Conservatives, they will not deliver on their pledge and Labour will have

:27:18. > :27:24.to move and shift quite substantially to address this. Why

:27:25. > :27:30.do you think about? It has united the Tory party. David Cameron has

:27:31. > :27:36.history on not delivering on pledges and the classic one was that the NHS

:27:37. > :27:46.is safe with the Conservative Party, look at the mess it is in stop that

:27:47. > :28:01.it -- that is a separate issue -- full stop. --. They will look at

:28:02. > :28:05.history and see he has broken pledge on a European referendum before,

:28:06. > :28:11.broken pledge elsewhere in terms policies, that is where the distrust

:28:12. > :28:16.starts to build. Do you share the views of some in your party which

:28:17. > :28:22.take a slash and burn approach to British politics? They are hoping to

:28:23. > :28:28.do well enough to stop the Conservatives winning, give Labour

:28:29. > :28:32.victory, they are civil war break out in the Conservative Party in

:28:33. > :28:38.opposition, where they become more Eurosceptic and UKIP goes in for an

:28:39. > :28:45.overall majority in the next election after that. You're making

:28:46. > :28:49.an interesting point. If that returned Conservatives, that might

:28:50. > :28:55.be an interesting option and it might be attractive to voters. The

:28:56. > :29:05.question was directed at me, do I share that view, I do not. Did you

:29:06. > :29:13.used to be a Conservative? I have only ever been a member of UKIP. I

:29:14. > :29:18.have in the past voted Conservative and I voted for a Liberal Democrat,

:29:19. > :29:26.a good candidate locally and I have voted Independent. I am a floating

:29:27. > :29:37.voter. If the Conservatives were to lose the next election, there would

:29:38. > :29:44.be an almighty battle with Europe at the heart of it for the soul of the

:29:45. > :29:53.Conservative Party. They promise to have a referendum -- promised will

:29:54. > :30:06.stop we will have a referendum in 2017 and this has united the

:30:07. > :30:11.Conservative Party --. Full is I think it is clear to many

:30:12. > :30:16.commentators that if you lose faith a Labour government five years, that

:30:17. > :30:46.you in opposition would become much more Eurosceptic --. . Would you not

:30:47. > :30:50.see the country conservatives in opposition, facing five years of

:30:51. > :30:55.Labour government, maybe becoming the party of out? I think that they

:30:56. > :31:01.probably would. I would concede to Matthew, that I think that the Tory

:31:02. > :31:07.Party is united. As I watch them they seem united on Europe. But a

:31:08. > :31:11.year ago the rebels were putting down an amendment to the Queen's

:31:12. > :31:16.Speech. A vote and you whipped against it.

:31:17. > :31:21.The year ago the referendum with our policy.

:31:22. > :31:25.But backbench rebels putting down an amendment to the Queen's Speech and

:31:26. > :31:30.earlier, whipping against a referendum. So it is no wonder that

:31:31. > :31:44.the UKIP activists and UKIP party don't trust you. We could not be

:31:45. > :31:50.more straightforward about it. We tried to put it into law with James

:31:51. > :31:54.Walton's brilliant bill but our Liberal Democrat colleagues would

:31:55. > :31:59.not have it and we don't have the majority without them.

:32:00. > :32:05.We have done all that we can to make this referendum happen so far. The

:32:06. > :32:09.key thing we have to do, is win the general election.

:32:10. > :32:13.Because UKIP has been the challenger, because it looks clear

:32:14. > :32:18.they have come a decent second, we have spent a lot of time talking

:32:19. > :32:20.about Europe but how clear are we that Europe will be a major issue

:32:21. > :32:28.about Europe but how clear are we the next election? I'm not sure it

:32:29. > :32:30.will be. I think it will be the cost of living, related to the economy.

:32:31. > :32:40.The state of the NHS, the schools. That is what is in the minds of the

:32:41. > :32:45.people at the next general election. If Matthew wants to bang on about

:32:46. > :32:49.the EU, then bring it on. I don't think it will be a big issue. I

:32:50. > :32:53.think that turning around the economy and our performance on

:32:54. > :32:58.improving public services will be absolutely at the core. Improving

:32:59. > :33:03.schools, skills and the fact that there are a record number of jobs.

:33:04. > :33:07.The fact we are putting more money in people's pockets, letting them

:33:08. > :33:13.keep more of what they earn. The fact there is an economic revival

:33:14. > :33:17.and the deficit is down by a third. Why are you so sure that Europe is

:33:18. > :33:24.the defining issue of the 2015 election? I think it is one of the

:33:25. > :33:28.issues, let me be clear. And unless David Cameron and let's say Ed

:33:29. > :33:34.Miliband, include it in their manifestos and make a commitment,

:33:35. > :33:40.the coalition governments avoided it. Voters will say why is it not

:33:41. > :33:44.there? Because you stated it would be, you said you would give us a

:33:45. > :33:50.referendum, why are you not including it? If they keep chasing

:33:51. > :33:54.the tin down the road, the Conservatives, the voters will not

:33:55. > :33:59.support them. Of course it will be in the manifesto. It would have been

:34:00. > :34:06.in the Queen's Speech were it not for the fact that the Deputy Prime

:34:07. > :34:11.Minister is a Liberal Democrat. Well, the one way to make them

:34:12. > :34:18.disunited is to not put that in the manifesto.

:34:19. > :34:22.I think that they have given in to the backbenchers. The concern about

:34:23. > :34:33.immigration reached a peak because of the numbers that came in from the

:34:34. > :34:37.earlier ex-cession countries, and then because of the financial

:34:38. > :34:46.collapse, resulting in big unemployment. By 2015, the economy

:34:47. > :34:51.will probably be growing strongly, unemployment even further. More jobs

:34:52. > :34:56.in the private sector, if not the public sector. There is no massive

:34:57. > :35:04.thrust of new immigrants coming in to balloon the numbers up, so it may

:35:05. > :35:10.not be the issue you hope it is? OK, some of what you have said is

:35:11. > :35:15.predicated on the eurozone turning itself around. Or it goes into sheer

:35:16. > :35:21.deflation. That could be an issue there. If that is the case, young

:35:22. > :35:25.people from the southern Mediterranean countries will still

:35:26. > :35:29.be coming here as only the United Kingdom offers them a job

:35:30. > :35:34.opportunity. And Germany. OK. If they come here,

:35:35. > :35:39.under this coalition government we are not creating the jobs at a rate

:35:40. > :35:45.to deal with the nearly 1 million young people who are not in

:35:46. > :35:51.employment educational training and the other aspect is we are not

:35:52. > :35:55.dealing with the major level of unemployment across the country. You

:35:56. > :36:00.cannot have it both ways to keep on growing the economy at such a rate,

:36:01. > :36:05.and when we are not even repaying the amount of debt back, and dealing

:36:06. > :36:10.with the deficit, as was reported briefly... If I answer the question.

:36:11. > :36:15.Unemployment is down by a quarter over the last year. Youth

:36:16. > :36:22.unemployment is falling at very fast pace. The number of jobs is at a

:36:23. > :36:27.record levels, the vast majority of which are jobs not for people newly

:36:28. > :36:33.coming to this country but from people here already. On average, the

:36:34. > :36:39.vast majority are full-time jobs. The jobs market is performing

:36:40. > :36:44.strongly. What we do not want to do is put it at risk with the Labour

:36:45. > :36:48.Party. But the facts are against the argument you put forward. You said

:36:49. > :36:55.we are not creating the jobs fast enough. But that is not true. Jobs

:36:56. > :37:02.are being created at record rates. But you have not brought immigration

:37:03. > :37:10.under control. If you are still assuming, Anna Soubry admitted this,

:37:11. > :37:14.that we are still going to be running at levels 200,000 plus a

:37:15. > :37:18.year, can you guarantee you can bring nearly 1 million young

:37:19. > :37:23.unemployed people back into jobs? Can you deal with the influx of

:37:24. > :37:28.200,000 plus immigrants and can you create enough jobs to help those

:37:29. > :37:32.that have taken the experimental step, setting up their own

:37:33. > :37:37.businesses, high risk, needing a lot of support, are you really saying

:37:38. > :37:43.you can deliver that? That is what the voters are turning around to say

:37:44. > :37:51.that they don't believe it. But that is what is happening. There is

:37:52. > :37:58.400,000 more new businesses. The number of NEETS, is at record lows

:37:59. > :38:02.and has halved under this Government. And youth unemployment

:38:03. > :38:07.is falling sharply. The job market performance is strong. Is there more

:38:08. > :38:11.to do? Of course. But are we able to produce the jobs that we need in

:38:12. > :38:17.this country at the current rate, yes we are. We have a lot further to

:38:18. > :38:22.travel. That is why you don't want to put it at risk. But to stick to

:38:23. > :38:30.the long-term economic plan. Yes it! Now, we have been floating

:38:31. > :38:37.pictures of the county of Newark. There are the candidates there. A

:38:38. > :38:38.colourful array of characters that a British