:00:11. > :00:17.From Edinburgh, capital of Scotland, the show that makes you proud to be
:00:18. > :00:27.British, for now, it's This Week, with Andrew Neil. Tonight, Michael
:00:28. > :00:35.Portillo, Diane Abbott, and chat show Charlie Kennedy. Campaigning
:00:36. > :00:42.firebrand, wife of Rab C Nesbitt, Elaine C Smith, SNP 's superstar,
:00:43. > :00:45.Hamza Yusuf, Scottish history boy, Niall Ferguson. And the Hollywood
:00:46. > :00:53.comes to Holyrood, with actor Brian Cox. Your host tonight, put your
:00:54. > :00:54.hands and your paws together for club reporter and Paisley boy,
:00:55. > :01:30.Andrew Neill. Andrew, Andrew, Andrew! Good
:01:31. > :01:36.evening, all. Welcome to downtown Edinburgh, from where we bring you,
:01:37. > :01:43.in the words of the Prime Minister, an effing special edition of This
:01:44. > :01:48.Week. With a semicomatose audience of effing This Week fans. Just like
:01:49. > :01:52.the entire effing BBC, we have hit the panic button. The team this week
:01:53. > :01:59.are back in Scotland, like the alcohol soaked cherry on the
:02:00. > :02:02.referendum. The atmosphere is feeble, and not just when Michael is
:02:03. > :02:07.changing in the dressing room. Before we cracked open the blue
:02:08. > :02:15.none, let me introduce you to Molly's cousins from north of the
:02:16. > :02:20.border. Here they are. Bach once for yes, twice for no. I guess they are
:02:21. > :02:24.abstaining. Anyway, let me introduce you to my very own band, still
:02:25. > :02:44.following me everywhere. Carry on dancing.
:02:45. > :02:56.APPLAUSE More from them later. Westminster
:02:57. > :03:00.politicians have had a busy summer. David Cameron has been boogie
:03:01. > :03:03.boarding and pointing at dead fish in Cornwall. Nick Clegg has been
:03:04. > :03:07.getting an earful from his in-laws in Spain, and Ed Miliband has been
:03:08. > :03:12.getting his head flushed down the loo at the Rubik 's cube camp in
:03:13. > :03:16.Tuscany. It must have come as a shock to them when they were told
:03:17. > :03:19.Scotland was having a referendum on leaving the UK, and even more of a
:03:20. > :03:23.surprise to be told they might lose. At least they did not embarrass
:03:24. > :03:27.themselves by jumping immediately on a train and heading north in a
:03:28. > :03:32.last-ditch effort to save the union, because that would have looked like
:03:33. > :03:37.panic, and made Alex Salmond look even more smug. As proof of the
:03:38. > :03:42.folly of rushing across borders without a clue about where you are,
:03:43. > :03:46.or why, I am joined on the sofa by some who should never be pressed
:03:47. > :03:49.interaction when things go pear shaped. Think of them is the panic
:03:50. > :03:56.button and panic attack of late-night political discourse. I
:03:57. > :04:08.speak of sad man on a tram, Michael Portillo, and Diane - are you sure
:04:09. > :04:14.this is Jamaica - Abbott. Joining them for one night only, rising star
:04:15. > :04:22.of the Liberal Democrats - sorry, that is an old script. Very old.
:04:23. > :04:35.Chat show Charlie, Charles Kennedy. Give them a round of applause.
:04:36. > :04:40.Michael, your moment of the week in this momentous week for Scotland and
:04:41. > :04:43.the United Kingdom? I suppose the announcement of the United Kingdom
:04:44. > :04:50.government's policy of devolution max, by Mr Gordon Brown. Has he
:04:51. > :04:54.joined the government? You might have thought so. A policy ruled out
:04:55. > :04:59.of the referendum by David Cameron. If there is a no vote, there will be
:05:00. > :05:05.devolution max which no one north or south of the border will have voted
:05:06. > :05:08.for. Your moment? It would have to be the YouGov poll which put the yes
:05:09. > :05:14.campaign ahead for the very first time. The point is that in London,
:05:15. > :05:17.in Westminster, everybody was so complacent. They never thought this
:05:18. > :05:21.could happen. Ever since, they have been running around like headless
:05:22. > :05:25.chickens. All I would say about the referendum is, Win, lose or draw, it
:05:26. > :05:32.has electrified British politics. Charles. A revelation and exclusive
:05:33. > :05:39.for this programme. When they failed to raise the sole tyre about --
:05:40. > :05:44.above Number Ten Downing St. -- the Scottish flag. Suddenly I realised
:05:45. > :05:53.that David Cameron is now a don't know. It must be. They got it up in
:05:54. > :05:59.the end, as they say, on late-night television. You are just back from
:06:00. > :06:03.Amsterdam, aren't you? What happens in Amsterdam stays in Amsterdam.
:06:04. > :06:08.Unfortunately what happens in Scotland does not necessarily stay
:06:09. > :06:12.in Scotland. One story has been on the front page of every newspaper in
:06:13. > :06:17.the UK and around the world. Yes, the Duchess of Cambridge has another
:06:18. > :06:20.bun in the oven. I am not saying the Royals are worried about the union
:06:21. > :06:26.but I am authorised to tell you that if it is a girl she will be called
:06:27. > :06:35.Morag MacTavish Michael Windsor. But what sort of kingdom will he be born
:06:36. > :06:40.into? Will it include Scotland? Will Rangers still be in the second-tier
:06:41. > :06:46.division? After all, those most affected by next Thursday's vote
:06:47. > :06:50.will be today's babies. So we turned to actor, pro-independence
:06:51. > :07:02.activist, recent granny, Elaine C Smith. This is her takeover week. --
:07:03. > :07:06.her take of the week. Like Prince Charles I have recently
:07:07. > :07:10.become a grandparent. I think that is where any similarity between
:07:11. > :07:16.Prince Charles and I actually ends. But I am sure, like me, he found it
:07:17. > :07:21.a life changing, momentous, life affirming. That has made me even
:07:22. > :07:26.more determined to campaign for the yes vote, because I want to make
:07:27. > :07:29.this place better, for my grand daughter, Stella, and her parents,
:07:30. > :07:38.and for a lot of other people as well.
:07:39. > :07:44.When my daughter was pregnant, we did not know if it was a boy or a
:07:45. > :07:50.girl she was having. Then I read a statistic that chilled me to the
:07:51. > :07:55.bone. One male baby in every four born in Glasgow this year will not
:07:56. > :08:01.live until they are 65. I could not believe it. This is 2014. If this is
:08:02. > :08:15.Better Together, if this is the best of both worlds, then God help us.
:08:16. > :08:19.We all want to make this place better, but I am campaigning for a
:08:20. > :08:24.yes vote because I no longer believe it is possible for Westminster to do
:08:25. > :08:27.that. I think the time is right for Scotland to take the power back into
:08:28. > :08:32.our hands to make decisions that affect the people who live and work
:08:33. > :08:37.here. Will it be perfect? I doubt it. Is there a magic wand available?
:08:38. > :08:41.No, there isn't, but that is what being a grown-up country is all
:08:42. > :08:53.about, making mistakes and making wonderful choices as well. We just
:08:54. > :08:57.want to be grown-up, thanks. I have never seen a political
:08:58. > :09:01.campaign like this in my lifetime. The level of engagement from people
:09:02. > :09:06.in communities across Scotland has just been magical, actually. I love
:09:07. > :09:12.the fact that people in pubs and clubs are discussing politics,
:09:13. > :09:15.talking about ego membership. -- EU membership. I do hope Scotland
:09:16. > :09:21.doesn't miss this wonderful opportunity. I will take this. What
:09:22. > :09:28.currency will you be paying with today? The pound.
:09:29. > :09:32.From the children's boutique to our very own little boutique in the
:09:33. > :09:41.heart of Edinburgh, Elaine joins us now. Give her a warm welcome.
:09:42. > :09:46.APPLAUSE Charles, you heard what Elaine had
:09:47. > :09:50.to say. What do you say? Well, I don't think, in terms of sentiment,
:09:51. > :09:53.and this is something we need to bear in mind for a week today and
:09:54. > :09:58.the day after a week today, I don't think in terms of Scottish sentiment
:09:59. > :10:02.you would probably put a stamp between us. I think it is a matter
:10:03. > :10:05.of not whether Scotland could be independent. I never had an issue
:10:06. > :10:11.about that. It is whether we should be. You talk about children. I look
:10:12. > :10:14.at my life chances, growing up as a child, then a fitting from the
:10:15. > :10:20.National Health Service, growing up with institutions like the BBC,
:10:21. > :10:23.great achievements built without Borders and boundaries. I think the
:10:24. > :10:28.great thing that Scotland brings to the world, and I am sure you will
:10:29. > :10:33.agree, we have never been selfish. We have been a sharing people,
:10:34. > :10:37.sometimes out of necessity, sometimes out of opportunity, right
:10:38. > :10:42.round the world. I think we build more and get further and give more
:10:43. > :10:46.opportunities to the next generation by maintaining that sentiment and
:10:47. > :10:51.that sense. That is why I vote no. I vote no, positively, to build
:10:52. > :10:55.something for the future. It is a gamble that Scotland would be better
:10:56. > :11:02.off if it went independent, isn't it? I do not see it as a gamble that
:11:03. > :11:06.is not worth taking. I think voting no is a gamble, every bit as much of
:11:07. > :11:12.a gamble. I am looking down the line and seeing the prospect of a Tory
:11:13. > :11:15.-UKIP coalition with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister and Nigel Farage
:11:16. > :11:22.in Cabinet. What are you taking, Elaine? I have been told lots of
:11:23. > :11:28.stuff! That is on the horizon, that move to the right. It seems to me
:11:29. > :11:32.something that within Scotland that we are not really looking forward
:11:33. > :11:36.to. And the changes, the benefit cuts, the things coming down the
:11:37. > :11:41.line that will affect the poorest in Scotland, are on the horizon. You
:11:42. > :11:46.are right, we do agree on a great deal. I just no longer believe that
:11:47. > :11:53.Westminster can be fixed. I just don't believe there is the political
:11:54. > :11:58.will or desire to do it. Michael, the no campaign, after the YouGov
:11:59. > :12:03.poll, the no campaign has thrown just about everything at the yes
:12:04. > :12:09.campaign. But is that not just more of the fear factor? Are they not
:12:10. > :12:13.just playing on fear? Well, obviously, if the parties in England
:12:14. > :12:18.really had wanted devolution max, they would have started to roll it
:12:19. > :12:21.out after 2011 and by now it would be in place, so it is hard for them
:12:22. > :12:25.to say, this is what we wanted in the first place. They would have
:12:26. > :12:27.consulted the people of Scotland and the British Parliament. There would
:12:28. > :12:33.have been a properly considered plan. I think it is evident from
:12:34. > :12:40.what you are saying that much of this is about wanting to have only
:12:41. > :12:45.left-wing government in Scotland. There are over 200,000 Tories in
:12:46. > :12:49.Scotland. Let me make the point. It is about having left-wing
:12:50. > :12:53.governments in Scotland. Two words of caution. First, when you talk
:12:54. > :12:58.about independence forever, that is a short-term view. The Tories were
:12:59. > :13:02.powerful in Scotland in the 1950s. These things can change. Secondly,
:13:03. > :13:05.Europe is full of left-wing governments that have had to do
:13:06. > :13:10.right wing things because they have been obliged to follow austerity
:13:11. > :13:13.programmes by the EU. Left-wing governments across the Mediterranean
:13:14. > :13:17.had to do right wing things. Scotland has found itself in the UK
:13:18. > :13:21.relatively protected against austerity, by comparison with
:13:22. > :13:24.Ireland, Spain, Greece or Italy. And I think one of the consequences of
:13:25. > :13:29.Scotland having to live entirely within its own means is that the
:13:30. > :13:33.government in Scotland, which will be of the left, either SNP or
:13:34. > :13:39.Labour, but following more austere and right-wing policies than they
:13:40. > :13:44.have been used to. Coming back to the YouGov poll that you mentioned,
:13:45. > :13:49.the reason why that showed, for the first time, an increase and the yes
:13:50. > :13:54.vote being ahead of the no vote was because Labour voters were peeling
:13:55. > :13:59.away from Labour, as Elaine has done herself, and going for the
:14:00. > :14:02.Nationalists and for independence. So why don't Scottish Labour voters
:14:03. > :14:10.listen to Labour politicians any more? Some of them do. But there is
:14:11. > :14:13.no question. The SNP in London have told me look at the number of
:14:14. > :14:19.undecided voters. When they break, they will break for us. But Labour
:14:20. > :14:26.voters have been breaking for Elaine's side. They were Labour
:14:27. > :14:30.undecided. I think there is an underlying issue across the
:14:31. > :14:35.country, actually, of cynicism and alienation from Westminster elites.
:14:36. > :14:38.I think it is a little unfair of Michael, who is always fair, to say
:14:39. > :14:42.this is about having a left-wing government. This is about the
:14:43. > :14:48.Scottish people being able to choose their own government. Is that a good
:14:49. > :14:54.thing? I have a lot of sympathy for it. But is it a good thing? Elaine
:14:55. > :14:59.said she wanted to be free from Boris Johnson. Mind you, so do I!
:15:00. > :15:05.Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage in government. But it is about the
:15:06. > :15:09.democratic deficit. It is the fact that as a nation we have been voting
:15:10. > :15:14.differently and not getting the government we voted for. For 17
:15:15. > :15:22.years you had a Labour government you voted for. I didn't vote for
:15:23. > :15:28.them. I wonder if the campaign, which had this boost at the weekend,
:15:29. > :15:33.has perhaps peaked too soon. There is a new YouGov poll out tomorrow in
:15:34. > :15:39.the times and in the Sun, the same organisation, and that puts the no
:15:40. > :15:46.vote at 52 points and the yes vote at 48. It is nip and tuck, very
:15:47. > :15:53.close. But that doesn't suggest a momentum on the yes side.
:15:54. > :16:00.Well, I think from where we have come and given the level of
:16:01. > :16:06.negativity, we have had one Sunday newspaper in Scotland supporting the
:16:07. > :16:11.yes campaign, we have a barrage, it's project terror we are getting,
:16:12. > :16:18.and for us even to be within spitting distance is a remarkable
:16:19. > :16:22.achievement. And even with the, in this latest poll, the no ahead once
:16:23. > :16:28.again, it's in the statisticical margin of error, meaning the yes
:16:29. > :16:32.haven't got a momentum yet, as in voting in a referenda, it's it's
:16:33. > :16:38.still wide-open, I would suggest. You put me on the spot in this room
:16:39. > :16:42.two months ago and mine were ahead a few points and there were raised
:16:43. > :16:46.eyebrows. I said it will two right to the wire and it will be tight on
:16:47. > :16:50.the night and people were saying no and I said, this isn't a
:16:51. > :16:54.conventional election, this is a once in a lifetime referendum of a
:16:55. > :16:59.type we've never had. A whole lot of people are going to vote. Good God,
:17:00. > :17:05.we have seen 97% registration who never normally vote. Human nature
:17:06. > :17:09.suggests, if all these folk aren't voting before, and I'm not talking
:17:10. > :17:12.about the firstving time voters, but people who're going on to the
:17:13. > :17:16.register, they can't be that enamoured with the voting system, so
:17:17. > :17:21.I suspect human nature being what it is, they are there for a purpose,
:17:22. > :17:25.which is the vote for the most dramatic change. Within 55-45,
:17:26. > :17:30.that's always been my range for what the outcome will be and it's all to
:17:31. > :17:35.play for with a week to go. Does it make sense to come out with the
:17:36. > :17:40.extra home rule stuff only after the polls started going against your
:17:41. > :17:45.side? Oh, no, far better to have had this a year ago. Political parties
:17:46. > :17:49.are democratic organisations internally, they take time. You've
:17:50. > :17:53.got three things that will eventually be compromised into one.
:17:54. > :17:58.But actually, after the cause, it's to be remembered, say the result is
:17:59. > :18:04.no for arguments sake but you want to push that agenda rule forward, a
:18:05. > :18:12.more federal direction I hope for the UK, the lesson from Scotland is,
:18:13. > :18:17.you will need to go outside the political parties, and get the
:18:18. > :18:21.people who voted yes, get them involved, in a wider civic Scotland
:18:22. > :18:25.to make it stick. That will be the big challenge.
:18:26. > :18:28.We'll know in a week. Despite tomorrow eats polling, what do you
:18:29. > :18:33.think? I have no idea. I'm not a politician so... That's why you gave
:18:34. > :18:40.me an honest answer! Exactly. Thank you very much! But at the start of
:18:41. > :18:45.this, I wanted obviously to win and I am campaign fog a yes vote, but I
:18:46. > :18:49.always wanted to be close -- wanted it to be close. This has been like
:18:50. > :18:52.nothing I've ever seen in my lifetime, it's wonderful.
:18:53. > :19:02.Thank you very much. CHEERING AND
:19:03. > :19:08.APPLAUSE It's late, very late, almost as late as a 12 point
:19:09. > :19:10.timetable for home rule designed by the former great leader Gordon
:19:11. > :19:16.Brown, don't let the thought of that put you to sleep because waiting in
:19:17. > :19:19.the wings, actor and campaigner Brian Cox and historian Neil
:19:20. > :19:23.Ferguson. They'll be with us to discuss whether the UK's days are
:19:24. > :19:29.finally over. Remember, if you can puts up with all the other idiots,
:19:30. > :19:32.we are all over the Twitter, Fleecebook and interweb. Carry on
:19:33. > :19:52.dancing? Give us something to raise our spirits.
:19:53. > :20:01.APPLAUSE Now, there's a genuine sense of
:20:02. > :20:05.excitement, tension and apprehension in the air here in Scotland with the
:20:06. > :20:10.big vote only one week away. We wanted to get a sense of how much is
:20:11. > :20:14.at stake, separate the half baked from the half-truths sowe turned to
:20:15. > :20:35.BBC Scotland's Sarah Smith. This is our round-up of the referendum week.
:20:36. > :20:41.It is such an exciting, nail-biting week in Scottish politics. I
:20:42. > :20:46.couldn't resist taking part in the great Scottish Bake Off but I am
:20:47. > :20:49.going to need to pick up a few tips. The competition is getting tough in
:20:50. > :20:55.the Scottish kitchen with some polls putting the two sides neck and neck.
:20:56. > :20:59.Recently, the No Campaign's been looking as messy as a baked Alaska
:21:00. > :21:03.that's been left out of the freezer. We've had to call in a previous
:21:04. > :21:07.winner to sort things out, Gordon Brown. He's announced a new tame
:21:08. > :21:12.table for extra powers to be devolved in the Scottish Parliament
:21:13. > :21:18.if there is a no vote next week. We are proposing that over the next few
:21:19. > :21:25.months, we agree a programme that the Scottish Parliament should have
:21:26. > :21:32.increased powers, in welfare, social and economic policy and in finance.
:21:33. > :21:36.Contestants are always running out of time. But now it's better
:21:37. > :21:39.together who look like they are panicking, coming up with this
:21:40. > :21:43.last-minute offer of more powers for the Scottish Parliament. Lots of
:21:44. > :21:48.voters I've spoke to say they are reluctantly voting yes because what
:21:49. > :21:51.they really wanted was more devolution all along. Is this late
:21:52. > :21:56.offer going to be enough to change their minds? I'm not sure. Is it
:21:57. > :22:03.really a last-minute show stopper? Or more of a half baked idea?
:22:04. > :22:12.A panicky Prime Minister hoisted a saltire flag above Downing Street,
:22:13. > :22:15.but it promptly fell down again. He cancelled Prime Minister's Questions
:22:16. > :22:20.so he and Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband could come to Scotland to try to
:22:21. > :22:23.flatten out the worries of voters who've been tempted by the tasty
:22:24. > :22:30.treats of the yes campaign. The Prime Minister used some words that
:22:31. > :22:43.will never cross Mary Berry's lips. People feel like it's like a general
:22:44. > :22:47.election, you make a decision in five years' time it can be changed.
:22:48. > :22:55.Solidarity, social justice, together not alone. From the head, from the
:22:56. > :23:01.heart, from the soul, vote no in this referendum and let's change
:23:02. > :23:04.Britain together. The three Westminster party leaders want us to
:23:05. > :23:08.believe that they are all offering devolution plans which are all the
:23:09. > :23:11.same size and shape, but the truth is, they don't actually agree on
:23:12. > :23:15.what extra powers to give the Scottish Parliament which makes the
:23:16. > :23:21.whole thing a lot less credible. They didn't even want to be seen
:23:22. > :23:23.together up here in Scotland visiting entirely different cities.
:23:24. > :23:27.So much for better together. Alex Salmond for his part said he was
:23:28. > :23:31.delighted to have them here. What we are seeing today on the other side
:23:32. > :23:34.is team Westminster jetting up to Scotland for the day because they
:23:35. > :23:39.are panicking in the campaign. Alex Salmond thinks he's got the
:23:40. > :23:45.winning recipe but he could yet develop a soggy bottom.
:23:46. > :23:49.Several big businesses said they may move their operations outside of
:23:50. > :23:53.Scotland if there's a yes vote. Combined with some less than helpful
:23:54. > :23:57.comments from the Governor of the Bank of England, Salmond's opponents
:23:58. > :24:01.are saying yesterday was his own personal Black Wednesday.
:24:02. > :24:05.I think the problem lies entirely with the no-campaign for this reason
:24:06. > :24:07.- they have now been caught red handed as being part of a campaign
:24:08. > :24:20.of scaremongering. My secret ingredient is all very
:24:21. > :24:25.hush-hush, but what's no secret is that whatever happens with the
:24:26. > :24:31.referendum, Britain is a country -- as a country will have been changed
:24:32. > :24:34.for ever. If it's a no-vote, the sweeteners offered by thedown-onist
:24:35. > :24:38.mean the Scottish Parliament will be able to tax, spend and borrow more
:24:39. > :24:41.than ever before. It can't be long before other parts of Britain ask
:24:42. > :24:48.for a larger slice of the constitutional cake. If it's a yes
:24:49. > :24:50.vote, then everything changes. Torturous negotiations will begin
:24:51. > :24:54.over everything from what currency Scotland will use to when Trident
:24:55. > :24:58.nuclear missiles have to leave the country. And a big question mark
:24:59. > :25:04.will hang over whether David Cameron can keep his job as Prime Minister.
:25:05. > :25:13.Now though, it's my moment of reckoning.
:25:14. > :25:16.Unfortunately, that is bland. Did you make the fondant? No, I must
:25:17. > :25:24.admit, I didn't. Just perfect. Lovely.
:25:25. > :25:28.I'm rather pleased with my efforts on the great Scottish Bake Off. Of
:25:29. > :25:32.course, by this time next week, we could be talking about the great
:25:33. > :25:37.Scottish breakoff. Sarah Smith at the Edinburgh School
:25:38. > :25:42.of Food Wine and she produced this and sent it along for us tonight.
:25:43. > :25:47.We'll scoff them later. We are thrilled to be joined by the man
:25:48. > :25:59.many claim is the power behind Alex Salmond. MSP superstar, welcome to
:26:00. > :26:09.the programme! That poll of the weekend which put
:26:10. > :26:15.you ahead for the first time, only came out as there was a sense of
:26:16. > :26:20.momentum but since then you have had people saying you are exaggerating
:26:21. > :26:23.the size of the oil, the companies agreeing, the Royal Bank of Scotland
:26:24. > :26:28.saying it would have to move its headquarters out of the country,
:26:29. > :26:33.people moving their savings. Are you not now on the defensive? Thank you
:26:34. > :26:38.for that introduction which was undoubtedly the kiss of death of my
:26:39. > :26:43.career. Thank you. Secondly, you are right, they are throwing everything
:26:44. > :26:47.at us. Westminster politicians are throwing Nigel Farage at us
:26:48. > :26:54.tomorrow. It could be count Dracula tomorrow, who knows. I am told he is
:26:55. > :26:58.being lined up as we speak. The fact that the yes side are celebrating a
:26:59. > :27:04.poll that's come out today that puts us within the margin of error is
:27:05. > :27:13.incredible when we were 22 points behind four weeks ago. Actually the
:27:14. > :27:16.Chief Executive said there is a contingency plan to maybe move their
:27:17. > :27:22.office to London but they had no intention of relocating any on
:27:23. > :27:26.vaguses, and -- operations. If you move your headquarters out of the
:27:27. > :27:33.country you are named after, it's not great. It's a contingency plan
:27:34. > :27:40.because of uncertainty. In case you win? ! No, because it's uncertainty.
:27:41. > :27:43.What we have seen today is an orchestrated campaign of uncertainty
:27:44. > :27:46.in the Scottish economy from the Prime Minister who himself met the
:27:47. > :27:52.supermarket chiefs and pressured them into trying to scare Scottish
:27:53. > :27:58.voters into voting no. I wouldn't go too far down what route you are
:27:59. > :28:04.going, but let me ask you this; the yes campaign accused the No Campaign
:28:05. > :28:07.of scaremongering and we remember originally within the project here,
:28:08. > :28:13.so I take that point, but couldn't you be accused of being relentlessly
:28:14. > :28:17.optimistic that every problem, even the Governor of the Bank of England,
:28:18. > :28:21.who really doesn't have a dog in this fight, throws things up. He
:28:22. > :28:27.doesn't know what he's talking about, there's nothing gets in the
:28:28. > :28:33.way of the optimism? Negativity and scaremongering is putting it mildly.
:28:34. > :28:37.Lightning bolts are falling. But in terms of the optimism, I would
:28:38. > :28:42.rather be a relentless optimist. I would rather have hopes over the
:28:43. > :28:48.politics of hope. Look what happened to Obama. He campaigned on hope. He
:28:49. > :28:54.now has the lowest ratings of any President of recent times. I would
:28:55. > :28:57.much rather, and I genuine believe the politics of hope will always
:28:58. > :29:03.beat the politics of fear. Speaking of fear. How seriously, Michael, do
:29:04. > :29:09.you take the Tory MPs in Westminster who said if the yes side wins, Mr
:29:10. > :29:12.Cameron should resign? Well, it would certainly from David
:29:13. > :29:16.Cameron's point of view be a calamity. First of all, because for
:29:17. > :29:21.a Conservative Prime Minister to lose the United Kingdom would be
:29:22. > :29:25.regarded as calamitous in terms of a Unionist Party and even though the
:29:26. > :29:28.Conservatives would have an advantage if Scotland left the
:29:29. > :29:34.union, David Cameron has absolutely set his mind against that. The
:29:35. > :29:37.second part he has is that crucial decisions have been made, for
:29:38. > :29:43.example the decision to withdraw the third part of the question about
:29:44. > :29:46.devolution max from the ballot and those judgments rule out the
:29:47. > :29:49.question. So I think it would be a very serious matter for him indeed.
:29:50. > :29:56.How much panic is there in the Labour Party? If you lose this
:29:57. > :29:58.referendum, you in the end lose 40 seats at least, maybe more, in
:29:59. > :30:29.Westminster? My line at the start of the program
:30:30. > :30:34.was, headless chickens and I'm sticking to that. If Scotland gets a
:30:35. > :30:38.vote, as things stand, in the next general election, and your party
:30:39. > :30:41.could win on the basis of Scottish votes from people who're about to
:30:42. > :30:51.become foreigners, how would that work? That's possible. Could you
:30:52. > :30:54.form a Government on that basis? Let me just say that we have won
:30:55. > :31:10.elections in England without Scottish votes. We could delay until
:31:11. > :31:14.2016. But that will not happen. It has been spoken about. The first
:31:15. > :31:17.year would be taken up with constitutional stuff anyway. You
:31:18. > :31:21.could not appoint a single Scottish MP to the government, because the
:31:22. > :31:26.Westminster government's main job would be to draw up its side of the
:31:27. > :31:29.divorce settlement. Your terms are in the White Paper. You could not
:31:30. > :31:34.put Scottish MPs in a government which was to go shaking with his
:31:35. > :31:38.Scottish Government on divorce. It would be like having a wife or
:31:39. > :31:44.husband on both sides of the divorce settlement. That is true. The House
:31:45. > :31:48.of Lords made that point. You could either delay the general election
:31:49. > :31:53.or, as some Tories have said, you could say that reason Scottish MPs
:31:54. > :31:58.can't vote on English matters. Or they conclude negotiations before
:31:59. > :32:03.the general election. It might put pressure on them to do that. If you
:32:04. > :32:10.are a conservative, because of a point you make, you might want to.
:32:11. > :32:14.When they separated Czechoslovakia into the Czech Republic and Slovakia
:32:15. > :32:18.it took 31 treaties and 121 Acts of Parliament. If you think this lot
:32:19. > :32:26.could do that by May, you are on something. Slightly different from
:32:27. > :32:32.Czechoslovakia. The clear precedent was that Ireland was created and all
:32:33. > :32:36.these things were sorted out. Charles, was it helpful for your
:32:37. > :32:42.side to bring Gordon Brown into the campaign? Yes, absolutely. It was
:32:43. > :32:45.helpful first of all because there has been a long-standing recognition
:32:46. > :32:50.that these traditional Labour voters were liable to go off and vote for
:32:51. > :32:54.the yes side of the ticket on this one, and clearly there has been
:32:55. > :32:59.movement in that direction. Gordon Brown gets a bit of a bad press. He
:33:00. > :33:03.did deliver for Labour, in terms of votes at the last UK general
:33:04. > :33:07.election in Scotland, a tremendous result. He put on a lot of support
:33:08. > :33:12.compared with Tony Blair previously, so he resonates. Most importantly,
:33:13. > :33:15.looking to the future, the initiative he has come forward with,
:33:16. > :33:19.and I agree with Michael that it is a bit Alice through the looking
:33:20. > :33:24.Glass, to say the least, with one week to go, but this initiative is
:33:25. > :33:28.actually the most clear-sighted thing, and the challenge to all of
:33:29. > :33:34.us on the reformist side, to get through the finishing tape and
:33:35. > :33:36.beyond. Good to see you. Enough of this tedious political chat. Show us
:33:37. > :34:05.some genuine talent. APPLAUSE Amid the sound and fury
:34:06. > :34:08.surrounding the referendum debate, spare a thought for Douglas
:34:09. > :34:13.Carswell. The former Tory MP jumped a sinking
:34:14. > :34:16.ship this summer to join Nigel Farage's merry band of political
:34:17. > :34:22.pirates in the United Kingdom Independence party. Of course, if
:34:23. > :34:26.the Scots vote yes next week, he could find himself standing for a
:34:27. > :34:32.party named after an outdated concept that no longer exists. A bit
:34:33. > :34:40.like the Chinese commonest party, or Ed Miliband's Labour Party. All the
:34:41. > :34:43.Scottish Tory party. That is why we have decided to look at the
:34:44. > :34:52.consequences for all of us and put the United Kingdom in this week's
:34:53. > :34:58.spotlight. What is grey, cold and more than 300
:34:59. > :35:03.years old? You probably think the average UKIP member. Close, but it
:35:04. > :35:09.is the UK, and it could still be divided. If Scotland decides to go
:35:10. > :35:15.alone, what might become of our shared institutions, the BBC, the
:35:16. > :35:19.Armed Forces, Team GB? The SNP claim that divorce can be amicable and an
:35:20. > :35:23.independent Scotland could still be a partner with the rest of Britain.
:35:24. > :35:29.We continue to be a part of the British Isles, but on the basis of
:35:30. > :35:34.equality. About how easy will it be to give up 300 years of shared
:35:35. > :35:37.economy, history and culture? Boris Johnson thinks it will be a
:35:38. > :35:42.catastrophe and we will lose a fundamental part of our identity. As
:35:43. > :35:49.the polls come closer and the result harder to call, what would happen to
:35:50. > :35:55.us if the UK lost the Scots? Would a reduced UK be OK, or will the bonds
:35:56. > :36:04.that bind us be lost forever? We are joined by Niall Ferguson and Brian
:36:05. > :36:11.Cox. Welcome to you both. Niall Ferguson, if it is a yes vote,
:36:12. > :36:19.sum up the impact on the rest of the UK. The economic impact would be
:36:20. > :36:23.biggest in Scotland but it would be present in England. I don't think
:36:24. > :36:28.this is mainly about economics. I think this would profoundly alter
:36:29. > :36:31.not just the flag, but the way in which the world regards this
:36:32. > :36:36.country. Some people still call it Great Britain. That was a term
:36:37. > :36:39.invented by a Scotsman, James the sixth, when he became James the
:36:40. > :36:44.first of England. Great Britain would be dead. You could call it the
:36:45. > :36:48.United Kingdom of Lesser Britain and Northern Ireland but that would be a
:36:49. > :36:51.misnomer, so there will be a fundamental reassessment of the
:36:52. > :36:56.United Kingdom if this happens. From the advantage point of the United
:36:57. > :37:00.States, where I live, the expats, those who think of themselves as
:37:01. > :37:02.Scots, is one of bewilderment. We cannot understand why this is
:37:03. > :37:09.happening, and nor can most Americans. You want independence,
:37:10. > :37:12.but do you have any fears or regrets that if Scotland goes that way that
:37:13. > :37:17.the rest of the United Kingdom would be seriously diminished in the eyes
:37:18. > :37:23.of the world? I think independence is only a beginning. I think it is a
:37:24. > :37:27.pathway to somewhere else. I think it is a pathway towards English
:37:28. > :37:33.independence. Everybody says it is a terrible thing. It is not an end
:37:34. > :37:37.stop, it is the beginning of something. Of course, we are so
:37:38. > :37:42.linked to England, we will not cut ourselves off just like that. And I
:37:43. > :37:46.don't think, personally, that independence means separation. I
:37:47. > :37:55.think it means a new inclusiveness, a whole redesigning of what is going
:37:56. > :37:59.on. But would we regret that Britain would be diminished? I do think it
:38:00. > :38:02.would be. Britain has to reassess itself. It is diminished at the
:38:03. > :38:08.moment because the political system is clearly not working. The three
:38:09. > :38:12.Amigos have arrived, Martin Short, Steve Martin and Chevy Chase have
:38:13. > :38:17.come with sombreros and kilts, and they are here to sort us all out.
:38:18. > :38:21.The patronage and condescension of the last four weeks has been utterly
:38:22. > :38:27.bewildering, because they haven't understood who we are. As a people.
:38:28. > :38:34.They simply have not understood it. I find it kind of shocking. Niall
:38:35. > :38:38.Ferguson. I wonder whether those who are planning to vote yes understand
:38:39. > :38:41.properly who we are as a people. It seems one of the confusions is to
:38:42. > :38:46.think only in terms of the people who live in Scotland. Most people
:38:47. > :38:50.who regard themselves as Scots do not live in Scotland. The number of
:38:51. > :38:57.expats fastly exceeds the 5 million people who live here. And those who
:38:58. > :39:02.live in Scotland will be affected. Not just those people. This is where
:39:03. > :39:06.I think Brian is unrealistic. Anybody who has been through a
:39:07. > :39:10.divorce knows that they are rarely amicable. It is hardly likely the
:39:11. > :39:15.English will say, that is OK, good luck, go and have your nice
:39:16. > :39:18.Scandinavian Scotland. Don't worry about the debt, have the pound, no
:39:19. > :39:23.problem. The problems will begin with the yes vote if it happens. It
:39:24. > :39:27.will be acrimonious and protracted, and for those of us who consider
:39:28. > :39:32.ourselves Scots, in Britain, in the United Kingdom, we do not see a
:39:33. > :39:36.conflict between those identities but see them as reinforcing. This
:39:37. > :39:41.means statelessness. I will no longer feel any -- no longer feel
:39:42. > :39:48.able to feel British. I have remained a British citizen. But also
:39:49. > :39:53.an American citizen. No, I work there but I am still able to
:39:54. > :40:07.citizen. If it is a yes vote, I will apply for US citizenship that day.
:40:08. > :40:13.And I went the alone. -- I will not be alone. I am an expat and I
:40:14. > :40:17.believe in an independent Scotland. Yesterday, I spent time in Dundee
:40:18. > :40:22.and I have seen people who are disenfranchised, who have fallen
:40:23. > :40:26.through the net, the grassroots who have been bewildered for the last 30
:40:27. > :40:31.years. In Dundee, in the last two and a half weeks, over 7000 people
:40:32. > :40:36.have gone back on the social register. And that has been unheard
:40:37. > :40:41.of. Those people have been off the social register since Margaret
:40:42. > :40:44.Thatcher's poll tax. I think that is astonishing. The people I met
:40:45. > :40:48.yesterday are saying, we just want something that is our own, something
:40:49. > :40:54.we can actually take part in, be responsible for, because we have
:40:55. > :40:59.been treated like children for so long, that we want that. Michael, it
:41:00. > :41:04.is clear that the rest of the UK has really just closed its eyes and
:41:05. > :41:10.hoped that this goes away. If we wake up, and I will not because I
:41:11. > :41:18.will be up all night doing the programme. The drugs you gave me
:41:19. > :41:22.will help! And I can get you more. I know that because you Hollywood
:41:23. > :41:25.chaps are big on these things. The contingency planning will have to
:41:26. > :41:31.have a standing start on the morning of the 19th. I imagine officials in
:41:32. > :41:33.Scotland and London have been working on contingency plans,
:41:34. > :41:38.because that is what civil servants are for. There are lots of things I
:41:39. > :41:43.do not know yet about what the Scottish attitude would be after
:41:44. > :41:47.independence. Niall Ferguson made the point that it was called Great
:41:48. > :41:49.Britain a century before the union of the two parliaments. It is
:41:50. > :41:53.perfectly obvious that you could have this -- the name Great Britain
:41:54. > :41:57.without the parliaments being united. I do not know what the
:41:58. > :42:01.attitude would be to the Queen. Whether the Queen would be, as the
:42:02. > :42:05.Queen of Canada is, or whether she would continue as the Queen of the
:42:06. > :42:08.United Kingdom. Those are different relationships with the monarchy. I
:42:09. > :42:12.don't even know yet that the separation of the parliaments means
:42:13. > :42:16.the end of the United Kingdom. It certainly does not necessarily mean
:42:17. > :42:20.the end of Great Britain. There are all sorts of things that are not yet
:42:21. > :42:28.known. However, England is fastly bigger than Scotland, -- much bigger
:42:29. > :42:32.than Scotland. So it is a bigger experiment for Scotland. It may be
:42:33. > :42:40.bigger but it is not as good. Whatever. That told him. Losing a
:42:41. > :42:47.hand is less traumatic than losing the body attached to it. I was
:42:48. > :42:51.amazed at Professor Ferguson's argument that it is unfair on
:42:52. > :42:56.expats. Whatever you think, this is about people that live in Scotland
:42:57. > :42:59.and their future. People who have gone overseas and clearly are doing
:43:00. > :43:07.very well are not really in a position to tell Scottish residents
:43:08. > :43:11.what they should do. The point about Scottish identity is that it has not
:43:12. > :43:16.been a narrow parochialism. We have been a global people. That is what
:43:17. > :43:20.we are sacrificing, going down a route that is foreign to Scottish
:43:21. > :43:27.tradition, whatever you residents of Scotland may say. That is your lot.
:43:28. > :43:33.Thanks to both of you. For us, there is still half a bottle left in
:43:34. > :43:38.Diane's minibar, so the after party starts now. How did she get the
:43:39. > :43:43.presidential suite gesture Marco, it is in the bed-and-breakfast! Bags to
:43:44. > :43:46.everybody for coming out tonight. God knows what you were thinking.
:43:47. > :43:50.And thank you too many viewers who are still awake and watching. We
:43:51. > :43:55.will be back with our new series in two weeks, when we could be living
:43:56. > :43:57.in a very, very different country, or not. Good night. Don't let the
:43:58. > :44:02.referendum bite.