:00:11. > :00:20.Tonight, after a week of freezing weather,
:00:21. > :00:23.David Cameron is with the world's so-called movers and shakers
:00:24. > :00:29.But is the Prime Minister going off-piste by talking
:00:30. > :00:31.about the possibility of deporting immigrants who don't learn to speak
:00:32. > :00:37.Comedian Sadia Azmat, has joined the This Week
:00:38. > :00:57.Cameron's skiing in Davos this week, but is on a much more slippery
:00:58. > :00:59.slope with Muslim women in the UK this week.
:01:00. > :01:02.Canapes and champagne consumed by world leaders in the Alps
:01:03. > :01:04.as turmoil in the markets increases fears of another economic downturn.
:01:05. > :01:07.One of those not invited to the jamboree, journalist
:01:08. > :01:07.and broadcaster, Julia Hartley-Brewer.
:01:08. > :01:11.Cameron is desperate for his fellow leaders to focus on his EU
:01:12. > :01:14.negotiation, but they have other matters on their minds.
:01:15. > :01:17.And, bringing the financial crash of 2008 to the big screen,
:01:18. > :01:19.braving the cold conditions in the This Week studio,
:01:20. > :01:24.Hollywood writer and director of The Big Short, Adam McKay.
:01:25. > :01:34.The housing market is rock solid. It's a time bomb.
:01:35. > :01:42.I've waxed my skiis and I'm off on the piste!
:01:43. > :01:50.Now, long-suffering fans of the show will know to their cost that
:01:51. > :01:53.Diane Abbott is a hard habit to break.
:01:54. > :01:56.For over a decade she bestrode our sofa like a colossal pain
:01:57. > :02:04.So news that Diane will soon be portrayed on the London stage
:02:05. > :02:09.in a song-and-dance-and-hard-left spectacular entitled Corbyn
:02:10. > :02:12.the Musical, The Motorcycle Diaries has already been greeted
:02:13. > :02:14.with a five-star review by those who know her
:02:15. > :02:20.The plot sounds entirely reasonable to us and sees our Jezza facing
:02:21. > :02:25.a nuclear crisis with the Soviet Union, set
:02:26. > :02:29.against the doomed-romantic background of the pair's
:02:30. > :02:33.now-infamous East German motorcycle holiday in the late 1970s.
:02:34. > :02:38.A sort of Easy Rider meets the Stasi extravaganza you might think,
:02:39. > :02:44.but described by the writers as James Bond meets the Kama Sutra,
:02:45. > :02:48.it promises to do for Diane and Jeremy Corbyn what Summer Lovin'
:02:49. > :02:52.and Grease Lightnin' did for Sandy and Danny Zuko.
:02:53. > :02:59.Of course, political balance demands that we also express our enthusiasm
:03:00. > :03:01.for the upcoming Boy George musical provisionally entitled,
:03:02. > :03:04.of Cutting Student Maintenance Grants -
:03:05. > :03:07.Though nobody knows what the soundtrack will be
:03:08. > :03:09.since there's no mention of it in the Tory manifesto.
:03:10. > :03:11.Speaking of nasty surprises you weren't told about,
:03:12. > :03:13.I'm joined on the sofa tonight by two unexpected items back
:03:14. > :03:17.Think of them as the 'sympathy strike' and the 'sympathy card'
:03:18. > :03:22.I speak, of course, of #fourpercent Liz 'miserables' Kendall
:03:23. > :03:29.and #sadmanonatrain Michael 'choo choo' Portillo.
:03:30. > :03:34.Welcome to you both. Thank you very much. Michael, your moment of the
:03:35. > :03:38.week? Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission
:03:39. > :03:41.seems to be proposing changes to immigration rules which are very
:03:42. > :03:47.significant from Britain's point of view. We are able to deport and have
:03:48. > :03:52.deported 12,000 immigrants over the last few years to the place where,
:03:53. > :03:57.in the European Union they first sought asylum. Which is the Dublin
:03:58. > :04:01.Agreement? He is saying this might need to be revoked unless Britain
:04:02. > :04:05.agrees to take its quota of immigrants, which in our case would
:04:06. > :04:10.probably be about 90,000 souls. Quite a significant number. This
:04:11. > :04:15.dwarfs what David Cameron is talking about at Davos, for example, which
:04:16. > :04:19.is the limit on when EU citizens, who move to this country, would
:04:20. > :04:22.first receive benefits. It's a much bigger problem. If it really is the
:04:23. > :04:27.case that Juncker is thinking of making these changes, it will loom
:04:28. > :04:30.Brett pretty large over this He may think summer. About it, I suggest to
:04:31. > :04:36.you it will not happen? You think because he will see this as dynamite
:04:37. > :04:39.in the referendum campaign? Yes it would be deeply unpopular in Eastern
:04:40. > :04:45.Europe too. It won't just be Britain. We will see, you never
:04:46. > :04:51.know. We will see. Liz. Today's enquire into Litvinenko's murder.
:04:52. > :04:54.Remarkable, wasn't it? It may not ultimately have been surprising, but
:04:55. > :04:59.it was brutally shocking I thought in its conclusions. It raises very
:05:00. > :05:03.difficult issues for the Government which has to be able to demonstrate
:05:04. > :05:07.it's not going to allow the Russian state to get away with murder whilst
:05:08. > :05:13.also being able to deal with Russia over the very serious questions in
:05:14. > :05:19.Syria and Isil. I also think it raises some important questions for
:05:20. > :05:22.those on the hard left who have often acted as apologists for
:05:23. > :05:28.Russia, claiming Russia is always forced into things by the West and
:05:29. > :05:33.claiming that somehow they are the subject of propaganda from the
:05:34. > :05:40.western media and demonised. I hope after today's report we never hear
:05:41. > :05:48.those comments again. I never thought I would hear him name a head
:05:49. > :05:55.of a foreign state. Quite amazing. Now, John Major described Britain
:05:56. > :05:57.as a country of "long shadows on cricket grounds, warm beer,
:05:58. > :05:59.invincible green suburbs, Not sure he actually mentioned
:06:00. > :06:03.the last one and he might have used another word,
:06:04. > :06:05.beginning with B and something to do with his parentage,
:06:06. > :06:08.but you get the picture. This week David Cameron went
:06:09. > :06:10.further, claiming speaking English was an essential feature
:06:11. > :06:12.of our way of life. According to Dave, tens of thousands
:06:13. > :06:15.of Muslim women living in the UK struggle to speak the language -
:06:16. > :06:18.often prevented from doing so by men who don't have their best
:06:19. > :06:20.interests at heart. He's even proposed deporting women
:06:21. > :06:23.who fail to learn the language adequately after two-and-a-half
:06:24. > :06:24.years in the country. So are Muslim women in the UK living
:06:25. > :06:27.in the social isolation Here's comedian Saria Azmat
:06:28. > :06:37.with her take of the week. # Grandpappy's never
:06:38. > :06:39.late for his dinner. # And he washes it
:06:40. > :06:44.down with brandy...# I'm here today for a
:06:45. > :06:46.lesson in Britishness. If the Prime Minister is to be
:06:47. > :06:56.believed, as a Muslim woman I spend most of my time waiting in corridors
:06:57. > :07:00.for the men folk in my life to finish their important meetings
:07:01. > :07:05.and hiding behind the firmly closed door of my house, which sounds
:07:06. > :07:17.more Isis than Leyton. There might be a minority of Muslim
:07:18. > :07:20.women living in the UK But the answer is not to generalise
:07:21. > :07:28.on the basis of a few case studies because the main thing making Muslim
:07:29. > :07:31.women feel like second-class citizens is the Prime Minister's
:07:32. > :07:35.demonisation of us. And speaking of generalisations,
:07:36. > :07:37.what truly qualifies Having a Sunday roast,
:07:38. > :07:42.drinking Earl Grey or crying I'll have the steak
:07:43. > :07:55.and kidney pie, please. In one breath, David Cameron talks
:07:56. > :07:58.of a Britain where women and girls are free to choose how they dress,
:07:59. > :08:01.how they live and who they love and in the next advocates clamping
:08:02. > :08:04.down of the wearing of the veil. You know who else tells women
:08:05. > :08:07.what to do and what to wear, For me, wearing a headscarf,
:08:08. > :08:14.far from being submissive, is an act of rebellion
:08:15. > :08:16.against my liberal parents. In short, it brings
:08:17. > :08:20.a better game than I do. The reality is, the Government
:08:21. > :08:28.is scared of a problem it doesn't understand and has reacted
:08:29. > :08:31.by further alienating the community, clamping down on the freedom
:08:32. > :08:34.and individuality it It seems like, as a Muslim woman,
:08:35. > :08:44.I've still got to prove my So, Mr Cameron, is this
:08:45. > :08:55.English enough for you? And from Rules Restaurant
:08:56. > :08:57.in Covent Garden, to disobeying the rules of making good
:08:58. > :09:01.television here on This Week, Sadia Azmat and Yasmin
:09:02. > :09:10.Alibhai Brown join us now. Yasmin, let me come to you first.
:09:11. > :09:15.What do you make of Sadia's take of the week there? You know, it's a
:09:16. > :09:19.good... It's a good set of arguments. Of course, nobody is
:09:20. > :09:23.saying all Muslim women are oppressed. Can you imagine anybody
:09:24. > :09:28.oppressing me? You know, I'm a Muslim woman, you know. We've often
:09:29. > :09:36.tried? You've tried and failed. I think there is a serious crisis and
:09:37. > :09:39.there is a serious problem. Just because all feel angry for the Prime
:09:40. > :09:43.Minister for the loose way in which he was talking and linking language
:09:44. > :09:48.and women to terrorism doesn't mean we have to ignore a very serious
:09:49. > :09:55.problem. We are lucky. We are lucky women. Have choices and we have
:09:56. > :10:01.independence. Before the elections I went to Rochdale I walked in this
:10:02. > :10:04.area and it seemed as if all Asian women, Muslim women, had been
:10:05. > :10:10.Spirited Away on to some planet that I didn't even know about. They
:10:11. > :10:19.weren't at the hustings or at the meetings. The same thing in Bristol.
:10:20. > :10:24.Male monopoly. East End of London the same thing. . You say a minority
:10:25. > :10:29.of Muslim women might well be oppressed. I don't think the Prime
:10:30. > :10:33.Minister said all, I think he was imself referring to minority. Do we
:10:34. > :10:38.know how big this is minority is? Is it worth doing something about the
:10:39. > :10:42.minority? I think yes, there is worth doing something. It's the way
:10:43. > :10:45.he pitches it. There will be a benefit in doing a literacy scheme.
:10:46. > :10:48.The way he makes it sound is that all Muslim women are ill literate.
:10:49. > :10:51.So that's the problem with the way he's kind of framing it. Putting
:10:52. > :10:55.aside how the Prime Minister framed it, I think Yasmin agrees with on,
:10:56. > :11:01.that is there a problem ta needs to be tackled? I don't know how - what
:11:02. > :11:05.research he's done. I'm sure there is - I'm asking you? From my opinion
:11:06. > :11:09.I think there's a small issue probably. Just a small issue? To be
:11:10. > :11:14.honest with you, he is making it sound like it's Muslim women. If
:11:15. > :11:17.they are in a relationship, maybe it's Muslim men as well - you agree
:11:18. > :11:21.with that. You think the problem is Muslim men? Yeah. They should not
:11:22. > :11:26.have picked on the mums and the women at all. It's not just Muslims?
:11:27. > :11:31.No, but it is mainly Muslims. It doesn't help - The literacy - No,
:11:32. > :11:36.not the literacy. This is what happens. Young women from Bangladesh
:11:37. > :11:40.and Pakistan in parts of India come here to marry. Those young women
:11:41. > :11:45.don't speak English. Now years and years ago I used to teach them
:11:46. > :11:50.English in their homes, in factories, we had a national free
:11:51. > :11:54.scheme here. Where you could go and teach them English. They killed
:11:55. > :11:59.that, big mistake. I feel very strongly that those women,
:12:00. > :12:03.particularly, are closed off, not able to speak English and cannot
:12:04. > :12:07.participate. I'm saying this because I care about them. I'm not
:12:08. > :12:12.demonising them at all. All right. Let us hold these thoughts and we
:12:13. > :12:15.will come back to you. Liz, you have a significant Muslim community in
:12:16. > :12:19.your constituency in Leicester West. Is there a problem of integration,
:12:20. > :12:24.of being able to speak the English language of becoming part of the
:12:25. > :12:27.community? Yes, I mean, I agree with the Prime Minister that it is
:12:28. > :12:31.absolutely vital that people can speak the language in this country,
:12:32. > :12:36.but I think that that applies to men and women and people of all
:12:37. > :12:40.different religions and from all different countries. But the real
:12:41. > :12:46.problem with what the Prime Minister said was he claimed he wasn't making
:12:47. > :12:50.a causal link between not being able to speak English and extremism that
:12:51. > :12:53.is precountriesly what he went on to do. The problem with that is,
:12:54. > :12:58.firstly, it doesn't get to the root cause of why radicalisation is
:12:59. > :13:02.really happening and, secondly, it does alienate the very communities
:13:03. > :13:06.he needs to work with if we are ever going to get to the root causes of
:13:07. > :13:10.the problem. Your reaction Michael? This is rather tragic, all three
:13:11. > :13:12.speakers so far have recognised to various degrees there is a problem
:13:13. > :13:16.and that the Prime Minister was right to talk about a problem. The
:13:17. > :13:20.Prime Minister has done so in such a bad way that the three speakers so
:13:21. > :13:25.far are absolutely against what he said. I would add to that the
:13:26. > :13:31.ridiculous idea that a woman who fails her language test by 0.5 point
:13:32. > :13:36.will find the police car screaming up to her door, dragged away from
:13:37. > :13:39.her children and husband, takenen to the airport -- taken to the airport
:13:40. > :13:44.and deported. Why does the Prime Minister waste his breath and ink in
:13:45. > :13:53.ludicrous statements. It's not going to happen. It's not going to happen.
:13:54. > :13:59.As so often - Why do you think he has made a basic, stupid comment. .
:14:00. > :14:05.He had time to think about it. He has a motormouth, I think. In the
:14:06. > :14:10.United States, the first rule of any immigrant, if you want to get on is
:14:11. > :14:13.you learn to speak English. Even if you're in a Hispanic community.
:14:14. > :14:17.There are more and more in the United States, you need to speak
:14:18. > :14:22.English to get on and become part of that society. That's got to be true
:14:23. > :14:26.for Britain as well? If I could interject. He keeps making these
:14:27. > :14:33.comments about how we should be British. My question is - how come
:14:34. > :14:37.it's harder to get into Disneyland USA than to Raqqa Syria because
:14:38. > :14:42.there is more people going to Isis every week. An Asian family what
:14:43. > :14:46.wanted to go to Disneyland and restrict from going. The Prime
:14:47. > :14:50.Minister didn't give them backing in that case story. I take that. I
:14:51. > :14:54.asked you about a, you are talking about b. I come back to this issue
:14:55. > :14:58.of an immigrant society we become more and more like that over the
:14:59. > :15:02.years. It's been generally welcomed, which would surprise many from the
:15:03. > :15:06.60s and 70s, but if you don't want to be cut off from the mainstream,
:15:07. > :15:10.if you want to get on why would you come here if you didn't want to get
:15:11. > :15:14.on, don't you have to learn English? Who is doing the cutting from the
:15:15. > :15:24.mainstream? The community is alienating the way he is speaking to
:15:25. > :15:29.the community There was more integration from the '60s to the
:15:30. > :15:35.'80s, partly because Muslim men and women had to work. The film East Is
:15:36. > :15:39.East, I've read the booklets in the mosque saying do not mix with the
:15:40. > :15:44.infidels, don't let your children mix with them, it's as if you can
:15:45. > :15:52.live... Is that widespread in Britain? Completely. Because the
:15:53. > :16:01.Wahabi set finances it. The publications paid for by Saudi
:16:02. > :16:03.Arabia. You don't recognise that? I completely disagree, I don't
:16:04. > :16:10.recognise that at all. I'll show you. This is where the Prime
:16:11. > :16:15.Minister was on to something when he mentioned the connection of language
:16:16. > :16:20.and extremism. It's a subtle point, but where people don't use the
:16:21. > :16:25.language, they are naturally alienated and it's a short step from
:16:26. > :16:32.that to victimhood. We had a young man telling us about the victimhood
:16:33. > :16:36.by Muslims on estates and of course if people feel excluded it's easy to
:16:37. > :16:42.inculcate the sense of victimhood and you can take people in many
:16:43. > :16:49.dangerous directions. What do you think? There's something we need to
:16:50. > :16:53.do. It's not always good to be viewing ourselves as the victims and
:16:54. > :16:58.I try not to do that, I don't do that. When David Cameron talks about
:16:59. > :17:01.contradictory terms, so he says women are free to dress how they
:17:02. > :17:08.want but they should take off the vale, I can... He mentioned... We
:17:09. > :17:13.are talking about people who come here, playing the full part in our
:17:14. > :17:20.vote, if they can't speak English and they wear the full vale, I think
:17:21. > :17:22.most people watching this programme will think it's inconceivable they
:17:23. > :17:27.could play a full part in British society. Are we wrong? The people
:17:28. > :17:32.who wear the full vale with well-speaking English people, the
:17:33. > :17:35.people I've come across. Even so, it's a symbol of self-exclusion.
:17:36. > :17:39.This is saying, you cannot see my face, the face is how we
:17:40. > :17:47.communicate, I can see your face and I have seen a school in the mid
:17:48. > :17:53.lands lands -- Midlands where every teenage girl was valed. How can this
:17:54. > :17:59.be right? How is it good for us Muslims to do this to ourselves?
:18:00. > :18:02.That's you will to their choice. Doesn't it limit, because there is a
:18:03. > :18:06.problem with higher rates of unemployment, particularly in the
:18:07. > :18:10.north of England, of Muslims. Doesn't it limit their chances of
:18:11. > :18:15.get ago job? There's probably other factors involved like discrimination
:18:16. > :18:18.as well I would say. In any case, I think I'm right in saying that the
:18:19. > :18:22.Prime Minister raised the vale in the context of public positions held
:18:23. > :18:29.by Muslim women wearing vales, in other words, you know, a judge, a
:18:30. > :18:32.teacher, a social security official, communicating with clients through a
:18:33. > :18:34.vale and he was saying that in those circumstances, he thought it
:18:35. > :18:38.inappropriate. He wasn't suggesting what the French is done, which is
:18:39. > :18:42.banning vales. Thank you both for being with us.
:18:43. > :18:45.Now it's late, Crispin Blunt on Poppers late.
:18:46. > :18:49.But don't go sniffing the Blue Nun fumes just yet.
:18:50. > :18:52.Because waiting in the wings, writer director Adam McKay
:18:53. > :18:56.is here to talk about his Oscar-nominated movie The Big Short,
:18:57. > :18:58.and the politics of the financial crash.
:18:59. > :19:02.And don't forget we are still going belly-up in the social media
:19:03. > :19:05.meltdown on The Twitter, The Fleecebook, The Friends Reunited
:19:06. > :19:11.and Gordon Brown's world wide web sphere.
:19:12. > :19:15.Now, the all-conquering success of This Week still manages
:19:16. > :19:21.How does a programme with almost no budget consistently
:19:22. > :19:24.defeat all its rivals with such consummate ease?
:19:25. > :19:28.Well, the secret's all in the high-producution values.
:19:29. > :19:31.And the fact that we bribe Question Time, and Today,
:19:32. > :19:35.and The Andrew Marr Show to be just a little bit more rubbish
:19:36. > :19:40.Newsnight doesn't really need a bribe - obviously.
:19:41. > :19:44.And so with backhanders being exchanged everywhere,
:19:45. > :19:46.we decided to do what everyone does in mid-January,
:19:47. > :19:49.and play a game of rigged tennis in the freezing cold.
:19:50. > :19:51.We turned to broadcaster and former tennis pro,
:19:52. > :20:13.This is her Round-up of the political week.
:20:14. > :20:17.# Well, you're the real tough cookie with the long history.
:20:18. > :20:19.# Of breaking little hearts...#.
:20:20. > :20:32.What many people don't know about me is that back in the day,
:20:33. > :20:36.long before the political journalism got in the way, I used to be a bit
:20:37. > :20:41.So when This Week said they were looking for someone to rig
:20:42. > :20:46.the round-up I thought - absolutely, why not.
:20:47. > :21:04.Let's get you back out there and see if you've still got it.
:21:05. > :21:17.Luckily, I didn't bet on the election.
:21:18. > :21:21.If I believed what the pollsters had to say, I'd have lost a fortune.
:21:22. > :21:24.A review of where they went so wrong was published this week and it turns
:21:25. > :21:30.They had too many Labour voters in them and too few
:21:31. > :21:41.It turns out that if Conservative voters had just answered
:21:42. > :21:43.their phones, then the pollsters wouldn't have had Labour
:21:44. > :21:47.and the Tories consistently neck and neck.
:21:48. > :21:51.The question is - did the polls affect the outcome of the election?
:21:52. > :21:59.# Why don't you hit me with your best shot...#.
:22:00. > :22:02.But they did mean that we all obsessed over whether Labour's
:22:03. > :22:05.double partner would be the SNP or not.
:22:06. > :22:07.The next test for the pollsters will be predicting the outcome
:22:08. > :22:11.If they get that wrong, they may not be allowed back
:22:12. > :22:16.Talking of not getting the ball over the net,
:22:17. > :22:20.Labour's former Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, stepped back
:22:21. > :22:23.on to Centre Court this week to explain why Ed Miliband didn't
:22:24. > :22:29.It turns out it wasn't just his weak backhand.
:22:30. > :22:33.The task we had was to try and convince people
:22:34. > :22:37.that they could trust us, particularly with the economy
:22:38. > :22:41.and to deal with issues that the Conservatives had made
:22:42. > :22:45.issues of division between people like welfare and immigration,
:22:46. > :22:51.As one Labour MP succinctly put it - blame the media, blame the polls,
:22:52. > :22:54.blame the Tories, everyone's fault but ours.
:22:55. > :23:03.Frankly, the Labour Party just served too many double faults.
:23:04. > :23:05.Fundamentally, it came down to the economy and leadership.
:23:06. > :23:08.Voters didn't think that Ed Miliband would make a good leader
:23:09. > :23:10.and they didn't trust him on the economy.
:23:11. > :23:12.And if the party doesn't change its game plan,
:23:13. > :23:15.there's little chance that wildcard Jeremy Corbyn will win
:23:16. > :23:24.# I'm on the edge of glory and I'm hanging on a moment of truth.
:23:25. > :23:31.# I'm on the edge of glory and I'm hanging on a moment with you.
:23:32. > :23:36.# I'm on the edge, the edge, the edge, the edge, the edge,
:23:37. > :23:43.The global economy looks gloomy and the markets are in turmoil
:23:44. > :23:46.thanks to a slide in oil prices and slow growth in China and that
:23:47. > :23:49.has led to a change of tactics by the governor of
:23:50. > :23:55.Now is not yet the time to raise interest rates.
:23:56. > :23:58.This wasn't a surprise to market participants
:23:59. > :24:04.But it may come as a surprise to those who heard him say,
:24:05. > :24:06.just six months ago, that we should expect a rate
:24:07. > :24:11.The PM has made his annual trip to the ski slopes,
:24:12. > :24:14.rubbing shoulders with the global elites at Davos, he's been
:24:15. > :24:17.using his best topspin to encourage business leaders to get
:24:18. > :24:20.behind his EU renegotiation strategy.
:24:21. > :24:23.I think it would be good for Europe and good for Britain
:24:24. > :24:26.if we demonstrated that we can turn the goodwill that there
:24:27. > :24:28.is into the actions that are necessary to put this
:24:29. > :24:33.Come on, Julia, let's come up to the net now.
:24:34. > :24:38.There'll be a lot of new faces on the international circuit next
:24:39. > :24:42.year, one of them could be the man that we all love to hate -
:24:43. > :24:44.The Republican presidential contender infuriated,
:24:45. > :24:47.well, most of us with his call for a ban on all Muslims entering
:24:48. > :24:53.Over half a million people signed a petition in protest
:24:54. > :24:56.at Donald Trump and MPs were granted a debate in Parliament to decide
:24:57. > :24:58.whether or not to ban Trump from coming to Britain.
:24:59. > :25:09.Donald Trump is no more than a demagogue.
:25:10. > :25:23.I'm here to support the next President of the United States,
:25:24. > :25:28.So Donald Trump has the support of someone even crazier than him,
:25:29. > :25:33.When it comes to self-promoting egomaniacs, Sarah Palin has
:25:34. > :25:39.True, she'll bring him right-wing support, but what's
:25:40. > :25:41.he promised in return - Secretary of State Palin?
:25:42. > :25:50.Enough's enough's, I don't think I'm going to give up the day
:25:51. > :25:56.Um, strictly expenses you understand, absolutely no
:25:57. > :26:14.Practise makes perfect! Kind of. Michael, this huge collapse in the
:26:15. > :26:20.markets at the moment and all the major Stock Exchanges from the FTSE
:26:21. > :26:25.to the Dow, the FTSE down 20% compared to the peak, the DOW
:26:26. > :26:33.collapsed as well. Here is the most difficult question of all, is this a
:26:34. > :26:37.major correction or is a harbinger of a serious downturn in the
:26:38. > :26:43.economy? My guess would be the latter. I think there are so many
:26:44. > :26:48.people now saying that they want to get out of equities that the sheer
:26:49. > :26:56.force of numbers probably will have an impact on the markets, a very big
:26:57. > :27:01.impact before long. Then we'll two back into the usual recovery phase.
:27:02. > :27:05.But quite a lot of people are out there in quite exposed positions.
:27:06. > :27:09.There's still an awful lot of debt. Thinking about this country, of
:27:10. > :27:12.course, you know, a lot of people because we have such low interest
:27:13. > :27:17.rates have not corrected their debt positions. They may have been
:27:18. > :27:21.encouraged into greater exposure than before so this can be very
:27:22. > :27:25.painful, not just for people who own shares and pot just for people who
:27:26. > :27:29.have pension funds or are drawing pensions. I think the other thing
:27:30. > :27:33.worrying the markets is that if we were to tilt, by that I mean the
:27:34. > :27:36.Western economies back into recession, it's not clear now what
:27:37. > :27:42.the weapons would be to fight it because interest rates are still
:27:43. > :27:50.incredibly low, quantitative easing is still out there, fiscal deficits
:27:51. > :27:55.are still very high. Where are the economic tools to use if we do go
:27:56. > :27:59.back. I think that that is one of the reasons why there is such
:28:00. > :28:03.volatility in the markets. It's not simply what is happening in China or
:28:04. > :28:10.with the oil, but the markets understand that. I think the
:28:11. > :28:15.challenge for us in the UK is whether we are best prepared as we
:28:16. > :28:19.should be for what might come. I am concerned that we do still have some
:28:20. > :28:24.underlying weaknesses and imbalances in the economy and that if the ship
:28:25. > :28:27.is weakly built, it's not going to be able to weather the storm. That I
:28:28. > :28:32.think is the challenge when we come to the budget later on this year. We
:28:33. > :28:35.are so used to talking of austerity loosely because I think broadly
:28:36. > :28:38.speaking there hasn't been all that much austerity that, we don't
:28:39. > :28:42.recognise that we have been in a growth phase for quite a long period
:28:43. > :28:45.of time. In other words, what you would normally expect by now is that
:28:46. > :28:49.you would be going back into a downturn, so, it really isn't all
:28:50. > :28:53.that surprising. The other real factor, the markets have lost
:28:54. > :28:57.confidence in the Central Bank authorities of China, which
:28:58. > :29:02.mishandled the valuation of the Fed which raised rates and that was the
:29:03. > :29:12.wrong thing to do. Governor Carney seems to change every time he makes
:29:13. > :29:17.a speech. The EU now, and Brexit or not, do you think the support of big
:29:18. > :29:21.business mike Goldman Sachs which is going to step in to help in the
:29:22. > :29:23.campaign, does that help or hinder Mr Cameron in his bid to keep us in
:29:24. > :29:33.the EU? I think almost the best prospect for
:29:34. > :29:36.the out vote succeeding is if the British people get the idea that
:29:37. > :29:43.there is a conspiracy of establishment thes. If all the
:29:44. > :29:47.political parties and the major newspapers and the CBI and, dare I
:29:48. > :29:53.say it, the BBC and now the banks, if they are all on the same side,
:29:54. > :29:59.then Joe Public may say - if it's good for all those people it may not
:30:00. > :30:02.be good for me. It may make people suspicion. Where the establishment
:30:03. > :30:06.has a position it becomes pretty clear to the public where they have
:30:07. > :30:13.to aim if they want to kick the establishment very hard. We have
:30:14. > :30:18.seen that in continental Europe. The Swedish ref to Jiang r join the
:30:19. > :30:23.euro. Their equivalent of the TUC were in favour of it, the Social
:30:24. > :30:29.Democrats were in favour of it and big business was in favour of it and
:30:30. > :30:33.the people voted against it? Yes we need insurgent i in the "in"
:30:34. > :30:38.campaign and think more about small businesses. There is a big desire
:30:39. > :30:44.amongst climate change and green groups. We need to give it a bit of
:30:45. > :30:50.energy and that is what I know certainly Allen Johnson is termed to
:30:51. > :30:54.do with the Labour In For Britain can Campaign. I don't get the
:30:55. > :31:00.impression that Theresa May or Boris Johnson will jump ship and join the
:31:01. > :31:03."Out" campaign. The biggest name to join from the Cabinet will be Iain
:31:04. > :31:08.Duncan Smith? That would certainly be a pity. You may be right, I think
:31:09. > :31:11.it's not a foregone conclusion. The Prime Minister and, I wouldn't put
:31:12. > :31:15.too much weight on this, has again been talking about the possibility
:31:16. > :31:20.of the referendum not being in June but at a later date. It's difficult
:31:21. > :31:27.to know what is going to happen. If it looked as though t leafers had a
:31:28. > :31:30.chance the leadership candidates might change their position. It's a
:31:31. > :31:36.joke to call them leadership candidates when what we are talking
:31:37. > :31:40.about here is followership. Labour report by Margaret Beckett. Would it
:31:41. > :31:45.be unfair, Liz, to say it wasn't the most revealing report I've ever read
:31:46. > :31:49.on why Labour lost? It's good it has come out. Some of us were pushing
:31:50. > :31:52.for it to be published. Was there a chance it might not have been A at
:31:53. > :32:01.one stage I wasn't sure it would come out. It was raised in the
:32:02. > :32:07.parliament Labour Party. It reminds me of Orwell's comment - to see what
:32:08. > :32:13.is in front of one's nose requires a constant struggle and sooner or
:32:14. > :32:19.later a false belief bumps you up against a solid reality." All of us
:32:20. > :32:22.on the doorstep knew people didn't trust us on economy, leadership and
:32:23. > :32:29.concerns about welfare and immigration. We can blame the
:32:30. > :32:33.pollsters, media, and the SNP we need to look at ourselves and what
:32:34. > :32:39.the public really think about us if we are going to have a hope in hell
:32:40. > :32:45.of winning in It was soft 2020. On Ex Machina did he nobble Margaret
:32:46. > :32:49.Beckett? He wouldn't have done that. No In the end the Labour takes
:32:50. > :32:52.responsibility for the strategy and direction of travel of the party.
:32:53. > :32:55.All of us is have a big responsibility. I don't think we did
:32:56. > :32:58.the serious thinking over the last five to eight years about who we are
:32:59. > :33:04.and what we stand for in the modern world. We are - It's a problem of
:33:05. > :33:11.centre left parties throughout Europe? It's a cliche we remain an
:33:12. > :33:15.industrial parties in a post-industrial age. We believe we
:33:16. > :33:22.can pull the levers of the state and make things happen. That is not how
:33:23. > :33:26.the world works any more. My prize for deep thinking this week goes to
:33:27. > :33:33.the analysis of why the pollsters got it wrong - they asked too many
:33:34. > :33:35.Labour voters, how did that lap? Their methodology appears very
:33:36. > :33:40.wrong. What is quite sinister, I mean, it really is a terrible
:33:41. > :33:44.deception of the public it has real consequences in the way that
:33:45. > :33:52.pollsters bunch. They herded? They herded. If one of them, as it turns
:33:53. > :33:54.out, gets it right they start correcting and adjusting their own
:33:55. > :34:00.figures so they align themselves with the herd. In this case actually
:34:01. > :34:05.what we are seeing is not a not accurate. In some cases it isn't
:34:06. > :34:09.honest. In some ways distorts. I think if the poll had been accurate
:34:10. > :34:12.rather than inaccurate during the campaign the way the media covered
:34:13. > :34:15.the campaign would have been different. Yes. The way the Labour
:34:16. > :34:19.Party fought the campaign, if they thought they were behind and
:34:20. > :34:24.struggling, it would have changed the way they voted. And some of the
:34:25. > :34:30.things promised wouldn't have been promised. Of course. The pollsters
:34:31. > :34:34.of Ex Machina in Nicola Sturgeon's pocket, it was powerful and happened
:34:35. > :34:42.at the end. Those last-minute things, important though they are
:34:43. > :34:47.didn't affect the underlining fundamentals. Even thoep the polls
:34:48. > :34:51.may have had an impact towards the end I think - The trends were
:34:52. > :34:55.against you. There is a lesson for people like me. If you see that a
:34:56. > :34:59.party is ahead in the leadership and ahead on the economy, and you still
:35:00. > :35:02.believe the polls they are going to lose the election you need to
:35:03. > :35:07.question that a bit more. OK. Thank you for that.
:35:08. > :35:10.Now, the Labour Party published a report this week into why it lost
:35:11. > :35:13.According to author Margaret Beckett, the Tories -
:35:14. > :35:15.ably assisted by their Lib Dem coalition partners -
:35:16. > :35:18."assiduously fostered the myth that financial institutions had been
:35:19. > :35:20.brought to their knees by the overspending of a profligate
:35:21. > :35:23.Well, if you believe that you deserve whatever
:35:24. > :35:26.Whatever, it was certainly an effective strategy,
:35:27. > :35:29.putting the blame on politicians rather than the financial system.
:35:30. > :35:34.But does that mean the real causes of the crash are still being
:35:35. > :35:37.ignored, setting us up for a fall yet again?
:35:38. > :35:39.We're concerned and that's why we're putting the financial crash
:35:40. > :35:56.With markets on the slide round the world, some people
:35:57. > :36:00.are worried we could face another financial crash like 2008.
:36:01. > :36:04.Perfect time then for a movie that shines a light on what went so badly
:36:05. > :36:09.I'm sure the world's banks have more incentives agreed.
:36:10. > :36:14.The Big Short tells the story of the men who went
:36:15. > :36:16.against the economic grain and predicted the bubble would burst
:36:17. > :36:21.Eccentric characters who understood what collateralised debt obligations
:36:22. > :36:26.were and how the credit default swap market worked and thyen bet
:36:27. > :36:29.against them when everyone else was looking the other way.
:36:30. > :36:34.If you're wrong, you could lose it all.
:36:35. > :36:37.The banks defrauded the American people.
:36:38. > :36:43.The film was based on the best-selling book by Michael
:36:44. > :36:46.Adam McKay, known for Hollywood comedies such as Anchor Man,
:36:47. > :36:48.wrote the screen play and directed the movie,
:36:49. > :36:51.turning the complex world of high finance and subprime mortgages
:36:52. > :36:55.into a whip smart blockbuster, gaining a bucket load of Oscar
:36:56. > :36:57.and Bafta nominations in the process.
:36:58. > :37:00.Do you have any idea what you just did?
:37:01. > :37:13.The American economy. Scenes from The Big Short. We are joined by its
:37:14. > :37:17.director and writer, Adam McKay. Welcome to the programme.
:37:18. > :37:21.Congratulations on the movie, nominated part of the Oscar
:37:22. > :37:29.nominations. Let me ask you this, what possessed you to make a movie
:37:30. > :37:32.about credit default swaps and collateralised debt obligation? How
:37:33. > :37:36.did that pitch go down in Hollywood? It's funny much I read the book.
:37:37. > :37:41.Michael Lewis is a recognise of a writer. I read the book in one
:37:42. > :37:45.night. Picked it up at 9.00pm. My wife was like, "what are you
:37:46. > :37:52.reading?" I said, "I will check this out" I was up to 6.00am. A great
:37:53. > :37:55.combination of compelling characters and salient information. I had never
:37:56. > :38:02.seen that combination before. You wrote the screenplay? Yes. Did you
:38:03. > :38:06.have to do a quick read on the financial instruments and financial
:38:07. > :38:11.markets? I did. You know, as friends of mine will tell you, I tend to be
:38:12. > :38:18.a bit obsessive. I started reading a lot of books and a lot of websites
:38:19. > :38:22.and we had a great consultant on our movie, Adam Davidson, a financial
:38:23. > :38:27.journalist. I just went through a crash course in economics and
:38:28. > :38:33.finance. Crash course, get it! Exactly! A stable course - I should
:38:34. > :38:38.have said. But, yeah, I learned a lot in a very short amount of time
:38:39. > :38:42.and the big thing was to crack the jargon. The big thing the banks do,
:38:43. > :38:46.they throw a lot of jargon at you to separate the people from the wheels
:38:47. > :38:49.of power. I really wanted to make it so that working people could see
:38:50. > :38:52.this movie and understand what really happened. Didn't it happen
:38:53. > :38:58.that they didn't understand their own jargon? They actually bought
:38:59. > :39:02.into their own Li to some degree. They definitely lost track of the
:39:03. > :39:06.con or the fraud, if you will, because it got so big and
:39:07. > :39:11.profitable, which often happens. No, they knew their own jargon - Some of
:39:12. > :39:15.the bosses didn't. The Chief Executive of RBS, which was almost
:39:16. > :39:22.destroyed, he told me, six months before, he didn't really know what
:39:23. > :39:26.it was? They didn't want to know. It was Triple-A. It didn't count as
:39:27. > :39:31.debt on their books. How convenient is that? It would be like my scale
:39:32. > :39:35.was broken. It was telling me every morning I weighed 180llbs. I
:39:36. > :39:43.wouldn't look to fix it. It was a certain - I've got that scale too!
:39:44. > :39:48.Can I borrow it? Yes, can you have it for the week? The incentives got
:39:49. > :39:55.turned upside down. There was a degree of stupidity. A degree of
:39:56. > :39:58.fraud. I think the ratings agencies were really culpable and the media,
:39:59. > :40:04.in the US, really missed the ball on this one as well. Michael Lewis
:40:05. > :40:07.makes that in an interview in Britain this week, that financial
:40:08. > :40:11.journalism, people whole knew more about it, until you started to do
:40:12. > :40:15.your homework, knew more than you. They never got this? They never saw
:40:16. > :40:19.this? It's funny. We have a scene in the movie where a couple of main
:40:20. > :40:24.characters go to the Wall Street Journal and say it's going on. The
:40:25. > :40:27.Wall Street Journal goes - get out of here. Some people from the Wall
:40:28. > :40:31.Street Journal were annoyed by this. They say, the truth is the guys came
:40:32. > :40:37.to you three times thech went to the New York Times, they went to a bunch
:40:38. > :40:42.other outlets they tried to tell me the Wall Street Jourpal. They said -
:40:43. > :40:48.we knew there was a housing bubble. I said, did you know there were CDOs
:40:49. > :40:52.and a contagion? There was a long pause and a no. I said it never
:40:53. > :40:57.occurred to you that the market was that big that you couldn't look into
:40:58. > :41:01.it? Could something similar happen again? What is that? Could something
:41:02. > :41:06.similar happen again? I don't think it will be exactly the way we saw it
:41:07. > :41:11.go down. It never is? No, I don't think it's about the housing market.
:41:12. > :41:15.I think that blindness that is led by greed and profits the orderly
:41:16. > :41:19.system, right now, you guys were talking about it with China and oil
:41:20. > :41:22.where it's at, it could happen from any other kind of thing. Do you
:41:23. > :41:27.think the banks are too billing big to fail? No question. No question.
:41:28. > :41:32.They are so much bigger. In the US five banks control more than 50% of
:41:33. > :41:37.the entire banking industry. That is incredibly dangerous. There is a a
:41:38. > :41:44.lot of junk debt around in the energy sector at the moment. A lot
:41:45. > :41:51.of areas where you could see something happening again. The group
:41:52. > :41:59.who saw what was happening and no-one believed them, they are
:42:00. > :42:05.outside the mainstream they were not what you think of the tie ans of
:42:06. > :42:08.Wall Street? No they were strange guys. That is why they could see it.
:42:09. > :42:15.The reality was - everything is great. Home prices will always go
:42:16. > :42:31.up. I was m LA, everyone thought - it's the way it was. Christian
:42:32. > :42:35.Bale's character would read numbers. He was immune to popular culture.
:42:36. > :42:40.That is how he saw it. He was really the first guy to see it before
:42:41. > :42:47.anyone else. It's now, seven years since the epicentre of the crash. I
:42:48. > :42:52.would suggest that there is still a lot of anger about it? Oh, yeah.
:42:53. > :43:00.From the United States perspective, Donald Trump. He reflects it. Bernie
:43:01. > :43:04.Sanders? A rational version of anger. Donald Trump is a punch a
:43:05. > :43:08.hole-in-the-wall type of anger. It makes no sense. No-one knows why
:43:09. > :43:13.they are supporting him. That anger comes from the fact that the
:43:14. > :43:19.recovery in the US, the wages have been flat for 98% of the public and
:43:20. > :43:24.for the top 1%, 2% there has been an up tick. That is not healthy. It's
:43:25. > :43:28.never good for an economy. You don't want income inequality. Ied middle
:43:29. > :43:33.America feels let down these days? Absolutely. It will feel even more
:43:34. > :43:41.let down when they say your movie. It has an Oscar nominations. I can
:43:42. > :43:44.ensure you that the bear markets are more interesting than a bear! You
:43:45. > :43:49.have been waiting all evening for that one. That was nice. Good luck
:43:50. > :43:56.at the Oscars. My absolute pleasure. Thank you for having me.
:43:57. > :43:59.That's your lot for tonight folks, but not for us because it's
:44:00. > :44:02.match-fixing night at Lou Lou's and Michael and Liz have been bribed
:44:03. > :44:04.to throw some shapes on the dance floor.
:44:05. > :44:07.But we leave you tonight with the gift that keeps on giving -
:44:08. > :44:10.after the Labour Party were sent into an administrative frenzy this
:44:11. > :44:15.week, desperate to find the sales invoice for the infamous 'EdStone'.
:44:16. > :44:19.The party urgently needed to supply details of its cost
:44:20. > :44:22.to the Electoral Commission and today it was revealed they spent
:44:23. > :44:25.around ?8,000 on the two-tonne slab of limestone that sunk
:44:26. > :44:32.That's only ?7,400 more than they spent
:44:33. > :44:50.Nighty night, don't let the joke that never gets old bite.
:44:51. > :44:57.Our pledges form the basis of our plan for working people. . These six
:44:58. > :45:01.pledges are now carved in stone. They're carved in stone because they
:45:02. > :45:07.won't be abandoned after the general election. I want the British people
:45:08. > :45:12.to remember these pledges because I want the British people to be in no
:45:13. > :45:16.doubt - we will deliver them. Thank you very much.
:45:17. > :45:32.APPLAUSE. I want to try him on a bottle
:45:33. > :45:33.of formula. Please, Sister. MUSIC: Take Good Care Of My Baby
:45:34. > :45:34.by Bobby Vee I ain't getting in the red for
:45:35. > :45:38.a pram. You've got to try harder.