:00:13. > :00:14.On This Week tonight, as indiscriminate terror once again
:00:15. > :00:20.comes to Europe, do we still underestimate the Islamist threat?
:00:21. > :00:25.And what, if any, are the political implications for the UK?
:00:26. > :00:27.Counter-extremism activist, Maajid Nawaz fears we're facing
:00:28. > :00:35.We are failing to understand the scale of the threat against us.
:00:36. > :00:38.This is a global jihadist insurgency, and we face
:00:39. > :00:45.In Westminster, the Government is rocked by sudden in-fighting,
:00:46. > :00:48.as Iain Duncan Smith quits the Cabinet.
:00:49. > :00:50.The Spectator's Isabel Hardman is our guide to a week
:00:51. > :00:57.How did David Cameron manage to turn around what was supposed to be
:00:58. > :01:02.the worst week for the Conservatives since coming into government?
:01:03. > :01:06.And as President Obama makes a historic victory to Cuba,
:01:07. > :01:10.thoughts naturally, turn to his legacy.
:01:11. > :01:12.Joining us to discuss how history will remember us,
:01:13. > :01:14.James Brown's legendary band leaders, Fred Wesley and Pee Wee
:01:15. > :01:28.Welcome to This Week, a week which looked like being dominated
:01:29. > :01:32.by a full-blown Tories-in-turmoil crisis when the Secretary of State
:01:33. > :01:36.for welfare cuts resigned because even he could no longer
:01:37. > :01:42.Boy George's Budget melted faster than a chocolate Easter egg stuck
:01:43. > :01:46.in the microwave, along with his leadership pretensions.
:01:47. > :01:49.And Call Me Dave's Government was forced into a Whitehall U-turn
:01:50. > :01:54.Top Gear had managed with its inappropriate petrol-head
:01:55. > :01:59.Bliss it was, for those of us in the Westminster bubble,
:02:00. > :02:03.to be alive to witness such machinations.
:02:04. > :02:07.But by Tuesday it was all myopic irrelevance when the same Islamist
:02:08. > :02:12.scumbags who'd brought carnage to Paris in November
:02:13. > :02:16.visited their barbarous death cult on the people of Brussels,
:02:17. > :02:21.leaving our politics parochial, even pathetic in its wake.
:02:22. > :02:25.The intelligence services tell us there are between 400 and 600
:02:26. > :02:30.jihadists now deployed across Europe by Islamic State's "external
:02:31. > :02:34.command", battle-hardened in Syria, trained in automatic weapons,
:02:35. > :02:36.explosives, surveillance, counter-surveillance and special
:02:37. > :02:41.forces techniques, tasked with waging guerrilla war
:02:42. > :02:46.in Europe's urban heartlands, including our own.
:02:47. > :02:49.Many are EU citizens, others have used the cover
:02:50. > :02:52.of the migrant crisis to come to our continent.
:02:53. > :02:57.It is far from clear, even after Paris and Brussels,
:02:58. > :03:02.that Europe's powers-that-be have any real idea of the scale
:03:03. > :03:07.of the threat and the daunting counter-insurgency task before us.
:03:08. > :03:10.But it is something we will have to play our part in addressing,
:03:11. > :03:18.Speaking of people with questions to answer, I'm joined on the sofa
:03:19. > :03:20.by what the deluded might regard as the dream team
:03:21. > :03:26.Sensible folk will more likely see it as the stuff of nightmares.
:03:27. > :03:30.I speak, of course, of #smoothoperator Chuka Umunna
:03:31. > :03:40.and #sadmanonatrain Michael 'Trainy McTrain Face' Portillo.
:03:41. > :03:47.Your moment of the week? We are going to be discussing the sombre
:03:48. > :03:51.events in a moment. I will choose a somewhat flippant moment to say my
:03:52. > :03:57.photograph appeared in the Daily Telegraph. This is an unusual event.
:03:58. > :04:00.It was a photograph taken 20 years ago of me emerging from Downing
:04:01. > :04:08.Street with Michael Howard, both of us being at the time "bustards".
:04:09. > :04:11.That is to say, we were much concerned with the European Union
:04:12. > :04:18.question. And it reminded me, because it was taken 20 years ago,
:04:19. > :04:21.that this curse of Europe, which has racked the Tory party, has been
:04:22. > :04:27.going on for 20 years, for more than 20 years. They could have produced
:04:28. > :04:30.an old photograph. The paper printed the photograph precisely to make the
:04:31. > :04:38.point that the nightmare just goes on and on. We have the terrible
:04:39. > :04:44.events in Brussels this week. In some sense, that is the moment. But
:04:45. > :04:49.the moment I have chosen is the reaction of the very likely
:04:50. > :04:56.Republican nominee, Donald Trump, on breakfast television in the US. He
:04:57. > :05:02.responded, his reaction was to call for the water boarding of terror
:05:03. > :05:05.suspects, to call the torture of terror suspects, to call for
:05:06. > :05:11.increased surveillance of Muslims, particularly of mosques. Of course,
:05:12. > :05:17.shortly after he said this, he then had a further victory in Arizona,
:05:18. > :05:22.and has as many delegates, almost, as the other candidates put
:05:23. > :05:26.together. And the real question is, is this man ready to become the
:05:27. > :05:33.commander-in-chief of the most powerful nation on earth? And, God,
:05:34. > :05:38.we should quake in our shoes if that is the case. It may still be a
:05:39. > :05:40.brokered convention in Cleveland. We shall see. Then there is a general
:05:41. > :05:43.election, but I take your point. Now, terror returned
:05:44. > :05:44.to Europe this week, this time in Brussels,
:05:45. > :05:46.only four months after Paris. And some of the same
:05:47. > :05:48.jihadists were involved, backed up by the same
:05:49. > :05:50.logistics team. Islamic State is on the defensive
:05:51. > :05:53.in Syria but it's clearly on the offensive in Europe
:05:54. > :05:55.and the security services They're up against terrorists far
:05:56. > :05:58.better trained and determined than the local losers who carried
:05:59. > :06:01.out 7/7 in this country and the new tactic is simultaneous
:06:02. > :06:03.multiple attacks to stretch So what exactly is the scale
:06:04. > :06:13.of the threat now? Here's Quilliam founder and activist
:06:14. > :06:15.Maajid Nawaz with his take After the Boston bombings of 2013,
:06:16. > :06:34.I made a film like this one, cautioning that Syria is looking
:06:35. > :06:38.like the new Afghanistan, and if so it won't be long
:06:39. > :06:41.until we see the blowback right They want to threaten
:06:42. > :06:45.everyday things. Dinner with friends,
:06:46. > :06:47.going to a concert, The images from Brussels
:06:48. > :07:10.earlier this week appalled but did not shock me,
:07:11. > :07:12.because as Islamist terrorists strike at another European capital,
:07:13. > :07:15.we have to call this We are failing to understand
:07:16. > :07:26.the sheer scale of the threat we are facing, and Brussels was just
:07:27. > :07:29.one expression of the blowback An anonymous Belgian
:07:30. > :07:35.counter-terrorism official gave striking insight into the problem,
:07:36. > :07:38.the impossible situation of monitoring hundreds
:07:39. > :07:40.of radicalised individuals who want to wage
:07:41. > :07:47.violent jihad on us. We do not have the infrastructure
:07:48. > :07:50.to prevent an attack on our streets There is only so much our already
:07:51. > :07:58.stretched security services can do. We need a full spectrum,
:07:59. > :08:00.whole of society, But instead, whilst the threat
:08:01. > :08:04.is increasing, we are in danger of handing victory to the jihadists
:08:05. > :08:09.with talk of their impact on Brexit. Terrorists are relishing having
:08:10. > :08:11.this level of influence. Think back to the Madrid bombings
:08:12. > :08:23.in 2004, where the Spanish government pulled its troops
:08:24. > :08:26.from Iraq in reaction, resulting in crowing
:08:27. > :08:30.from the jihadists over victory. Responding to attacks by linking
:08:31. > :08:33.terror with Brexit in the media is a gift to those seeking
:08:34. > :08:35.to destroy our society. And we must not let any further
:08:36. > :08:43.attacks that may take place before the referendum be seen to influence
:08:44. > :08:51.the result of our vote. Otherwise we are as good as inviting
:08:52. > :08:53.the jihadists to continue And from an empty Tube carriage
:08:54. > :09:06.in Walthamstow to minding the conversational gap
:09:07. > :09:20.here on This Week, Maajid Nawaz Welcome to the programme. Why do you
:09:21. > :09:25.think, after all that has happened and what we now know of Islamic
:09:26. > :09:29.State's external command, are we still underestimating the threat?
:09:30. > :09:34.There are many reasons but I think we are simply underprepared, and
:09:35. > :09:38.underestimate the extent of the appeal of this Islamist ideology
:09:39. > :09:44.with in certain pockets of Muslim communities across Europe. It has
:09:45. > :09:48.been festering for decades. Roughly 800 British born and raised citizens
:09:49. > :09:52.do not join Isis from a vacuum. There must be a level of support for
:09:53. > :09:56.this ideology across our communities, and we are not
:09:57. > :10:02.comfortable in speaking openly about this and challenging this ideology
:10:03. > :10:07.on the ground. Whatever we can do to stop that from happening in the
:10:08. > :10:12.future, it's already happened. And if we are faced with, as a result,
:10:13. > :10:18.and insurgency, we had better be prepared for a long and bloody
:10:19. > :10:21.counterinsurgency. Indeed. This is why my central message is not that I
:10:22. > :10:27.will tell people how to vote but that however we vote it should not
:10:28. > :10:30.be determined due to our fear of terrorism. Terrorism seeks to
:10:31. > :10:34.influence our political decisions upon the whims of people without
:10:35. > :10:38.Syria motives, who want to sway us this way or that depend on --
:10:39. > :10:42.depending on their ideological dogma. The key thing is fast show
:10:43. > :10:47.was aliens, to make decisions based on what we think is in our national
:10:48. > :10:52.interest, and not what we think is going to stop people intimidating
:10:53. > :10:59.us. Is Western Europe basing an insurgency? I don't know how you
:11:00. > :11:04.would define that. I don't know what you mean by saying we don't
:11:05. > :11:08.appreciate this. I think we rather do and have been successful in
:11:09. > :11:13.preventing a large number of terrorist attacks. You point out
:11:14. > :11:16.that these go back to 2004 in Madrid, 2005 in London. What has
:11:17. > :11:21.been remarkable in that period is the number of attacks thwarted. As
:11:22. > :11:25.for this separate question about not allowing ourselves to be entranced
:11:26. > :11:30.in the vote, I really don't quite know what that means. It sounds as
:11:31. > :11:33.though you think we should not be exit in the European Union and you
:11:34. > :11:38.don't want it to be influenced, but of course people are going to debate
:11:39. > :11:42.their own security. That is part of the appreciation of the problem. Of
:11:43. > :11:46.course you've got to debate whether you think you are safer in the
:11:47. > :11:51.European Union or outside, just as you debate every other question to
:11:52. > :11:55.do with the European Union. I think there are interesting points on
:11:56. > :11:59.either side. I want to stick to the nature of the threat from minute
:12:00. > :12:07.before we decide the response. Do you agree it is an insurgency? I am
:12:08. > :12:09.not sure it is in the UK. I sit on the Home Affairs Select Committee
:12:10. > :12:14.and we have been taking evidence on this for weeks. I get your point.
:12:15. > :12:19.You are saying that if we are seeing, never mind in relation to
:12:20. > :12:23.the referendum, but to allow terrorism to affect the way we think
:12:24. > :12:30.about policy, as citizens, then they have achieved their aim. I would say
:12:31. > :12:32.two things. First, I think it is not helpful to conflate the EU
:12:33. > :12:38.referendum debate with this issue. I will tell you why. In part because
:12:39. > :12:44.if we look at the terrorism that has really shocked people in the UK, it
:12:45. > :12:48.has been home-grown. Free movement has not affected Brits carrying out
:12:49. > :12:52.these atrocities. The second thing is, to the extent that people wish
:12:53. > :12:57.to conflate it with the EU debate, there is the debate as to whether we
:12:58. > :13:02.are stronger and safer in the EU or not. Cards on the table, I want us
:13:03. > :13:07.to stay in. But where those who want to stay in perhaps make a mistake is
:13:08. > :13:11.that the argument should not be, if we come out of the European Union
:13:12. > :13:20.the cooperation with other EU member states, saved through Europol, --
:13:21. > :13:27.lets say through Europol... The real cooperation is bilateral. French
:13:28. > :13:32.intelligence is embedded with our intelligence and ours is embedded in
:13:33. > :13:37.Paris. It is both, but the point is, to the extent that this is a
:13:38. > :13:41.cross-border issue, which it is, we need the EU and cross-border
:13:42. > :13:45.mechanisms to be more effective. I would much rather that the UK, which
:13:46. > :13:50.has a very highly regarded intelligence set of agencies, if we
:13:51. > :13:54.are in the driving seat to the extent that there is possible
:13:55. > :14:01.activity in Europe, that should give us comfort. Generally, the French,
:14:02. > :14:02.US, British and US intelligence ease are considered in the Premier
:14:03. > :14:13.League. I'm hearing two different
:14:14. > :14:19.statements. The attacks in Brussels have been the eighth of seven
:14:20. > :14:27.others, two in Pakistan, two in a number of Turkey, one in Mali, one
:14:28. > :14:32.in the Ivory Coast and one in another place. We are on a global
:14:33. > :14:35.level facing a Jihadist insurgency, an uprising across the world. Hang
:14:36. > :14:39.on, it's different though in different cities. If you look if
:14:40. > :14:49.Brussels and the history of the city, and I think Saudi Arabia,
:14:50. > :14:53.there there was a certain... The people in Brussels are the same
:14:54. > :14:58.people, it's the same logistics and attitude. But compare that to
:14:59. > :15:02.London, each of the different cities have different things going on, so I
:15:03. > :15:07.mean in some senses it has been underestimated in the UK because
:15:08. > :15:12.people focus on that number of I think we have had 700 UK citizens go
:15:13. > :15:15.for example from here to Syria, what people often don't realise is that
:15:16. > :15:21.600 have been stopped from dog the same. Yes, but hold on. There are
:15:22. > :15:25.thousands of British and European citizens that have gone to Syria to
:15:26. > :15:30.be trained by Islamic state. According to Europol at least 5,000.
:15:31. > :15:33.Is it wise to let them back in? Well I think the problem is, we don't
:15:34. > :15:36.know who's come back in, we know some have, but the problem is, we
:15:37. > :15:41.don't know, that's the problem. We don't know who has returned? The
:15:42. > :15:45.Security Services tell us they are completely overworked and they are
:15:46. > :15:51.saying that an attack in the UK is almost inevitable. What I am saying
:15:52. > :15:54.has been underestimated is the level of support for the idealology on the
:15:55. > :15:58.ground and grass roots and what I'm saying we are not doing enough of is
:15:59. > :16:02.the work within the communities to take the ideas head-on. I'm actually
:16:03. > :16:05.very happy with the fact that our Security Services are doing a great
:16:06. > :16:10.job. They are doing the best they can but they cannot win every time
:16:11. > :16:15.and, the more you study the Paris and Brussels attacks, the more you
:16:16. > :16:20.realise, for all what Chuka says, the terrorists have better cross
:16:21. > :16:25.border coordination than the terrorists? It does appear there has
:16:26. > :16:30.been some intelligence failures because these people were known to
:16:31. > :16:35.the police. They have been backwards and forwards across borders. They
:16:36. > :16:39.were stopped at one stage. The French forces allowed them to
:16:40. > :16:43.continue because the Belgians hadn't kipped them off that they were on a
:16:44. > :16:48.watch list. Then it said the Turks tipped off about one of them being
:16:49. > :16:53.deported from Turkey. I'm quite doubtful about what you think
:16:54. > :16:57.Governments can do within these communities this's not going to be
:16:58. > :17:03.counterproductive. What is the magic thing that Government's meant to do
:17:04. > :17:08.to persuade young men that they are being... It's not the role of
:17:09. > :17:15.Government to be directly involved. They need to put in a strategy to
:17:16. > :17:17.take on some of this themselves. We have a counterextremism strategy
:17:18. > :17:23.that Communities and Local Government should be leading.
:17:24. > :17:28.Unfortunately, it hasn't rolled out yet, although it exists on paper.
:17:29. > :17:34.Are you talking about Prevent? There's preevening violence and
:17:35. > :17:39.extremism. I'm talking about preventing extremism being part of
:17:40. > :17:43.the work. But the problem... Is this whistling in the wind? We have
:17:44. > :17:47.people back in this country, in Brussels and in France, who've been
:17:48. > :17:51.trained. They are not amateurs or people just with a grievance, they
:17:52. > :17:57.have been trained in Special Forces techniques. That is the danger that
:17:58. > :18:01.threatens us now. We have two distinct problem, one is people
:18:02. > :18:04.who're already trained, operational hi capable and who they are able to
:18:05. > :18:08.recruit from while they are here. That's what happened. Some attackers
:18:09. > :18:12.didn't travel to Syria, they were recruited. We have two distinct
:18:13. > :18:19.problems here. The securtiy services in the UK have prevented another
:18:20. > :18:23.major attack. Woolwich wasn't a major multiple attack, but the level
:18:24. > :18:27.of support for the ideaology in the communities is something that... How
:18:28. > :18:34.are you measures that? Surveys, statistics. After Charlie he believe
:18:35. > :18:41.bow, 33% of Britain's Muslims expressed sympathy. Poll after poll
:18:42. > :18:46.indicates a level of support -- Charlie Hebdo. I'm afraid we are out
:18:47. > :18:48.of time. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Yes. I fear
:18:49. > :18:51.so. Now, say it loud -
:18:52. > :18:53.it's late and we're proud. Because waiting in the wings,
:18:54. > :18:56.two funky members of James Brown's Alfred "Pee Wee" Ellis
:18:57. > :19:00.and Fred Wesley are here to talk about their legacy in
:19:01. > :19:02.music and in politics. And sadly for everyone,
:19:03. > :19:05.especially us, the internet So look us up on The Twitter,
:19:06. > :19:10.the Fleecebook, SnapChuckle, What's Up Doc and Gordon Brown's
:19:11. > :19:14.intergalactic web sphere. Now, with the Prime Minister
:19:15. > :19:18.ignoring his own advice to holiday in the flood-hit north of England,
:19:19. > :19:21.jetting off to Lanzarote instead, as far away from IDS as he can get,
:19:22. > :19:25.the Westminster elite are taking their usual
:19:26. > :19:28.un-earned Easter break. So with springtime in the air
:19:29. > :19:31.and chocolate on our mind, we sent The Spectator's Isabel
:19:32. > :19:36.Hardman to, where else, Only kidding, she went to make
:19:37. > :19:41.Easter Eggs in Borough Market, that's as far as our
:19:42. > :19:43.budget will stretch. Here's her round-up
:19:44. > :20:05.of the political week. As MPs prepare to head off
:20:06. > :20:09.for Easter recess this week, what better opportunity to learn
:20:10. > :20:12.about the transition from cocoa bean A smoother journey, I hope,
:20:13. > :20:20.than the rocky road the Tories have David Cameron spent the beginning
:20:21. > :20:25.of this week dealing with the fallout from the shock
:20:26. > :20:28.resignation of Iain Duncan-Smith I felt really semidetached,
:20:29. > :20:34.in a sense, isolated more often in these debates, because I'm not
:20:35. > :20:37.able to be able to convince people that what we are losing
:20:38. > :20:40.progressively was the narrative that the Conservative Party
:20:41. > :20:42.was this one-nation party, caring about those who don't even
:20:43. > :20:46.necessarily vote for it, David Cameron probably needed
:20:47. > :20:56.a stiff chocolate stout as he looked at Monday's statements
:20:57. > :20:59.and questions in the Commons, which gave Labour three separate
:21:00. > :21:02.opportunities to put pressure on the Government over the weekend
:21:03. > :21:08.meltdown over welfare cuts. George Osborne suddenly found he had
:21:09. > :21:11.an urgent date with some paperwork, and dispatched poor old David Gauke
:21:12. > :21:16.to the Commons to answer questions This Government, through our
:21:17. > :21:22.long-term economic plan, is creating growth and generating
:21:23. > :21:26.employment, cutting the deficit and securing long-term prosperity
:21:27. > :21:34.for the people of this country. David Cameron then gave his own rich
:21:35. > :21:38.defence of the Chancellor, arguing that without the work
:21:39. > :21:41.of his close friend, Britain would still be
:21:42. > :21:43.in an economic mess. This Government will continue
:21:44. > :21:45.to give the highest priority to improving the life chances
:21:46. > :21:48.of the poorest in our country. None of this would be possible if it
:21:49. > :21:53.wasn't for the actions of this Government and the work of my right
:21:54. > :21:55.honourable friend the Chancellor Instead of covering up
:21:56. > :22:01.for his friend, ask him if he'd be kind enough to come along
:22:02. > :22:06.to the House and explain why, for the first time in my memory
:22:07. > :22:10.in parliament, a Government's Budget has fallen apart within two days
:22:11. > :22:14.of its delivery. But the strange thing was that
:22:15. > :22:23.Corbyn managed to completely omit any mention of Iain Duncan-Smith
:22:24. > :22:26.from his response to The Leader of the Opposition
:22:27. > :22:31.was presented with an opportunity, But for some reason,
:22:32. > :22:39.he chose not to take it. He was as powerful as a chocolate
:22:40. > :22:44.fireguard. At least Labour's Owen Smith had
:22:45. > :22:49.another chance to savage the Government over its climb-down
:22:50. > :22:52.on cuts to personal Smith was facing Stephen Crabb,
:22:53. > :22:57.the new Work and Pensions Secretary, who had a surprise first
:22:58. > :22:59.announcement of his own. I can tell the House
:23:00. > :23:02.that we will not be going ahead with the changes to PIP that
:23:03. > :23:04.had been put forward. We have no further plans
:23:05. > :23:06.to make welfare savings beyond the substantial savings
:23:07. > :23:08.legislated for by Parliament The way this mess has been handled
:23:09. > :23:14.is a textbook example of Tory social security policy,
:23:15. > :23:15.long on divisive rhetoric, totally lacking in competence
:23:16. > :23:25.and compassion. But while George Osborne had managed
:23:26. > :23:29.to swim under the radar, submarine- like, for a few days
:23:30. > :23:32.after Iain Duncan-Smith's resignation, he still came
:23:33. > :23:35.to the Commons to speak at the end Would the Chancellor
:23:36. > :23:42.survive this Commons clash? Where we have made a mistake,
:23:43. > :23:45.where we have got things wrong, The behaviour of the Chancellor over
:23:46. > :23:56.the last 11 days calls into question his fitness
:23:57. > :23:58.for the office he now holds. What we've seen is not
:23:59. > :24:02.the actions of a Chancellor, a senior Government minister,
:24:03. > :24:07.but the grubby, incompetent manipulations of
:24:08. > :24:12.a political chancer. And it still wasn't over
:24:13. > :24:15.by Wednesday, when David Cameron had In his failure to explain how
:24:16. > :24:21.he would fill the hole in his Budget left by the change of heart on PIP,
:24:22. > :24:25.the Chancellor said, and I quote, If it's so easy to absorb
:24:26. > :24:32.changes of this nature, why did the Chancellor
:24:33. > :24:35.and the Prime Minister ever announce From Labour, all we have had is more
:24:36. > :24:41.proposals for more spending, All of the things that got us
:24:42. > :24:45.into the biggest mess with the biggest black
:24:46. > :24:47.hole in the first place. The strange thing, although this
:24:48. > :24:50.should have been the worst week for David Cameron,
:24:51. > :24:53.following the resignation of a member of his Cabinet,
:24:54. > :24:56.he ended up bouncing around the chamber like the Easter Bunny,
:24:57. > :24:59.teasing Jeremy Corbyn for a leaked list of Labour MPs that categorised
:25:00. > :25:01.them according to how By the end of the session,
:25:02. > :25:06.Cameron appeared to have won We've got the spreadsheet
:25:07. > :25:11.of which Labour MP is on which side. The Chief Whip is being a bit quiet
:25:12. > :25:24.because she is in "hostile". Mr Speaker, I thought
:25:25. > :25:26.I had problems! So at the end of this
:25:27. > :25:34.dramatic week in politics, Labour has failed to turn
:25:35. > :25:38.the heat up on the Tories, which means that David Cameron
:25:39. > :25:42.and his party are in a much better mood than they deserve to be
:25:43. > :25:48.as they head off to Easter A lesson in the politics
:25:49. > :25:58.of Easter Eggs from Hotel Chocolat's At the Rabot 1745 restaurant
:25:59. > :26:05.in Borough Market. And Isabel Hardman joins us now.
:26:06. > :26:17.Isabel, don't speak Did anybody see this resignation
:26:18. > :26:20.coming? I think they'd had threats from Iain Duncan Smith over the
:26:21. > :26:25.years that remight resign, but like the boy that cried wolf, they
:26:26. > :26:28.probably got used to those threats and thinking that heldn't follow
:26:29. > :26:32.through with it. They didn't see it coming at the end of a week on a
:26:33. > :26:35.Friday night when everyone was relaxing. The timing was the
:26:36. > :26:39.surprise but it had been on the cards. There had been a growing rift
:26:40. > :26:46.between the Chancellor and Iain Duncan Smith at the Department of
:26:47. > :26:49.Welfare in effect? Yes. But again, I don't think they expected the
:26:50. > :26:51.resignation. I think it arose, as I understand it, because the
:26:52. > :26:56.Chancellor and the Prime Minister appeared to be hatching a lot to
:26:57. > :26:59.blame him for the whole thing, that they'd decided they couldn't get the
:27:00. > :27:03.thing through and needed a fall guy and since obviously Iain Duncan
:27:04. > :27:06.Smith agreed to this with the greatest reluctance and that by the
:27:07. > :27:11.way knowing the context of the budget which he would not know, for
:27:12. > :27:15.him to be left dangling was the last straw. So I repeat that I don't
:27:16. > :27:21.think they saw it coming and I don't think one could see it coming.
:27:22. > :27:25.If I still have the floor for a moment, I think Iain Duncan Smith
:27:26. > :27:28.exaggerated grotesquely what the Government's done. I think actually
:27:29. > :27:33.the Government's been pretty progressive. When you think that the
:27:34. > :27:37.highest rate of tax is now 5% above what it was when Tony Blair was
:27:38. > :27:42.Prime Minister. You think of the huge changes there has been to tax
:27:43. > :27:45.relief for the higher rate pensioners in their savings, the
:27:46. > :27:50.personal allowance has been ground away for the higher rate payments,
:27:51. > :27:54.then when you think about the way payments to disabled people have
:27:55. > :27:57.grown inexorably which is the core of the problem, which is also a
:27:58. > :28:02.problem by the way which every Government, whether Labour or
:28:03. > :28:05.Conservative, has wrestled with because you create payments intended
:28:06. > :28:08.for disabled, but somehow the payments explode and you end up
:28:09. > :28:12.having people that you didn't have in mind in the first place. Any
:28:13. > :28:20.Government that was in would need to deal with that. I don't buy this
:28:21. > :28:24.whole thing from Iain Duncan Smith that he's suddenly become the
:28:25. > :28:28.champion of the disabled and people who need support because OK, he has
:28:29. > :28:33.seen the light in respect of Personal Independece Payments which
:28:34. > :28:37.is going to whack 700 people in my constituency, but he was the most
:28:38. > :28:41.vociferous advocate of the bedroom tax and two thirds of the people
:28:42. > :28:46.impacted by that are disabled people and actually, the sadness is not so
:28:47. > :28:52.much that it's taken him so long to kind of see the light, as it were,
:28:53. > :28:56.IDS, but the sadness is that, to the extent that if you think that his
:28:57. > :28:59.approach has been harsh on those needing support, which I think it
:29:00. > :29:03.has been, the sadness is that actually you look at the polls and
:29:04. > :29:07.the surveys, much of the public have tended to agree with the agenda that
:29:08. > :29:12.has been prosecuted by Iain Duncan Smith. Actually, I think it's
:29:13. > :29:15.evidence of just how quite segregated we have become as a
:29:16. > :29:20.society. The overwhelming majority of people in work don't know anybody
:29:21. > :29:27.on unemployment benefit. Really? The survey showed that. Really? Yes. Not
:29:28. > :29:30.sure I buy that. It was in the social integration commission
:29:31. > :29:35.report. The issue was important and it wasn't even an issue linked to
:29:36. > :29:41.what was happening to disability payments. Over the years, because
:29:42. > :29:45.the Government had ringfenced pensions and ringfenced the NHS and
:29:46. > :29:49.were spending more on both, the only other really big line in Government
:29:50. > :29:57.spending that has three figures in the billions is welfare?
:29:58. > :30:03.Iain Duncan Smith's Major complaint was that they kept raiding welfare
:30:04. > :30:08.again and again and it was making him impossible to taper the return
:30:09. > :30:13.back to work, to make it worth while people working more and keeping more
:30:14. > :30:17.of what they earned. Yes, and this is why the debate about whether or
:30:18. > :30:22.not ministers are saying there will be no more welfare cuts in this
:30:23. > :30:25.Parliament slightly misses the point. Politically, it is difficult
:30:26. > :30:29.for them to make more welfare cuts, even though the public supports
:30:30. > :30:34.welfare of, because of the way the cuts have been pursued in the past
:30:35. > :30:38.few years. The disability benefit cuts which they have rowed back on
:30:39. > :30:42.have shown you cannot cut disability benefit now because it has been done
:30:43. > :30:46.clumsily. Similarly, tax benefits, it will be difficult to cut benefits
:30:47. > :30:50.for those in work after that row because the Tories are now so
:30:51. > :30:53.sensitive to this politically, that anyone who tries to do it,
:30:54. > :31:02.particularly George Osborne, will be accused of political gameplaying.
:31:03. > :31:06.You have another protected area of spending, which means the
:31:07. > :31:10.unprotected areas, places like the business, innovation and skills
:31:11. > :31:13.budget, which for every ?1 you put in you will get many pounds back in
:31:14. > :31:18.future because they are growth enhancing, that is the type of place
:31:19. > :31:27.which will hit more. I buy into industrial policy. You think HS2 is
:31:28. > :31:32.growth enhancing? I am talking about the business budget. Also, the local
:31:33. > :31:35.communities and low budget. The central government grant local
:31:36. > :31:41.authorities over the next four or five years will cut by 60%. It is
:31:42. > :31:46.worth remembering this is not the Budget George Osborne planned. He
:31:47. > :31:50.planned a Budget with enormous pensions reform. That had two
:31:51. > :31:54.effects. One was to bring forward a whole lot of money to plug the hole.
:31:55. > :31:57.Secondly, it was immensely progressive because it would
:31:58. > :32:03.transfer money to people who are lower paid away from those who are
:32:04. > :32:05.higher paid. The Prime Minister, I assume, vetoed that because there
:32:06. > :32:09.must not be any controversy running up to the referendum, because that
:32:10. > :32:13.is the most important thing in the world. So now the referendum
:32:14. > :32:17.dominates politics, George Osborne is forced to come forward with a
:32:18. > :32:21.stupid Budget with a great big hole in the middle of it. Since George
:32:22. > :32:27.Osborne was against the referendum in the first place, I cannot imagine
:32:28. > :32:31.he is overly chuffed. It does huge reputational damage to the
:32:32. > :32:34.Government and to the Government strategy. The strategy has been to
:32:35. > :32:39.move to the centre ground, because they think Labour has left. For Iain
:32:40. > :32:42.Duncan Smith to come and say, you don't care about those who don't
:32:43. > :32:47.vote for you, you are taking this money away from the most vulnerable
:32:48. > :32:51.in society but you are cutting capital gains tax and corporation
:32:52. > :32:56.tax, that is a disaster for that strategy for the Prime Minister.
:32:57. > :33:01.That is why David Cameron was clearly furious after IDS'
:33:02. > :33:04.resignation, because he had taken aim at everything the Prime Minister
:33:05. > :33:08.had stood up for at the Tory party conference. It undermines the
:33:09. > :33:13.central mission, the mission David Cameron wants to make his legacy as
:33:14. > :33:18.Prime Minister. Iain Duncan Smith was basically saying, you don't know
:33:19. > :33:21.what you are doing. There are Tories in Government who are worried that
:33:22. > :33:25.although Cameron has the right intentions, he is not good at
:33:26. > :33:30.following through. He makes speeches, but where is the delivery?
:33:31. > :33:35.They set up a private group to encourage more rigorous policies on
:33:36. > :33:38.social justice. One of the damaging things IDS said was the notion that
:33:39. > :33:45.they were prepared to hit the disabled because they do not vote
:33:46. > :33:49.for us. That, in particular... He was more talking, actually, about
:33:50. > :33:56.taking tax credits from the working poor. Well, I think that is pretty
:33:57. > :33:59.awful. People want to know the impact on the referendum. It seems
:34:00. > :34:04.to me that the main impact is that it is likely to make the Prime
:34:05. > :34:08.Minister less popular. There is a poll mouse saying his ratings are
:34:09. > :34:12.the same as Jeremy Corbyn, give or take a percentage point. Given that
:34:13. > :34:16.the Prime Minister is try to win a referendum in which, because half of
:34:17. > :34:20.Conservative voters will vote against him in the referendum, he
:34:21. > :34:24.has to attract voters who voted Labour last time, and voters who
:34:25. > :34:29.voted for the Scottish and at the lists, if his popularity goes down
:34:30. > :34:37.it makes it much more difficult. On the Labour list, are you happy to be
:34:38. > :34:43.in the "Hostile" category? Is that accurate? No. Would you rather be a
:34:44. > :34:49.little bit hostile? I don't know, what was the other option? I did not
:34:50. > :34:54.support Jeremy in the leadership contest but he is our leader and I
:34:55. > :34:58.want him to do well. A couple of weeks ago I interviewed someone who
:34:59. > :35:03.was trying to join the Labour Party who went on and on about the Jewish
:35:04. > :35:08.question, and so on. I think in the end he was kicked out after being in
:35:09. > :35:13.briefly. According to a Labour member, a Corbyn supporter, you are
:35:14. > :35:22.not politically black. What does that even mean? I don't know. You
:35:23. > :35:26.tell me. I didn't say it. I didn't say it either. Why would someone in
:35:27. > :35:34.the Labour Party say that you are not politically black? I think this
:35:35. > :35:40.came out of momentum. I think one of the problems is that the desire for
:35:41. > :35:43.a kinder, gentler politics is a very noble aim and desire but it is not
:35:44. > :35:49.always matched by the way people behave. But to go back to the list,
:35:50. > :35:54.it is interesting, the range of emotions it has produced in Labour
:35:55. > :35:59.MPs. In the first instance it was greeted with some hilarity.
:36:00. > :36:03.Everybody was asking, what are you? But there has been a lot of anger,
:36:04. > :36:06.actually, among people who have been identified as negative who are on
:36:07. > :36:12.the front bench during the grind and work. The biggest disappointment is
:36:13. > :36:18.that in the end it meant that Cameron got away with it at PMQs,
:36:19. > :36:22.and we should have knocked the ball out of the park. My favourite was
:36:23. > :36:27.the Labour MPs who said he was not on any of the lists. He did not know
:36:28. > :36:30.if this meant a first-class ticket to have an hour or a train to the
:36:31. > :36:32.gulag. Now, how will we be
:36:33. > :36:35.remembered here on This Week? For my penetrating questions
:36:36. > :36:36.and thoughtful interjections? For Michael's considered
:36:37. > :36:38.opinions and Diane Abbott's Or for our infamous "rave credits"
:36:39. > :36:43.where former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith found herself doing
:36:44. > :36:47.the Big Fish, Little Fish dance, as I pretended to cue up my next
:36:48. > :36:51.record in an imaginary DJ booth? Sadly, I think we all
:36:52. > :36:54.know the answer. That's why we're putting legacy
:36:55. > :37:05.in this week's Spotlight. He'll go down as America's
:37:06. > :37:08.first black president, but with the clock ticking
:37:09. > :37:10.on his time in office, how will history member
:37:11. > :37:13.his achievements. US-Cuba relations looked
:37:14. > :37:16.like a whole new ball game this week, after Barack Obama did
:37:17. > :37:19.something his predecessors haven't done for 88 years, visit
:37:20. > :37:25.the communist country. I have come here to bury the last
:37:26. > :37:28.remnant of the Cold War David Cameron must be concerned
:37:29. > :37:36.about how he will be judged over time, but it ain't over till
:37:37. > :37:39.the quiet man sings. After IDS quit the Government over
:37:40. > :37:42.benefit cuts, will he be remembered for an honourable resignation,
:37:43. > :37:44.or kicking his colleagues I don't want to resign but I'm
:37:45. > :37:50.resigning because I think it's Maybe that's what you call
:37:51. > :37:57.a good track record. In helping to save the Settle
:37:58. > :38:00.to Carlisle railway from closure in the 1980s, did our very
:38:01. > :38:04.own Choo Choo preserve his And they've been playing it
:38:05. > :38:12.on the one for decades. James Brown's horn section,
:38:13. > :38:16.Pee Wee Ellis and Fred Wesley, helped define black music and black
:38:17. > :38:22.pride in the funkiest way possible. So, whether politics or music,
:38:23. > :38:25.does a lasting influence And fresh from being on stage
:38:26. > :38:33.tonight at Ronnie Scott's Jazz club in Soho, we're joined in the studio
:38:34. > :38:52.by legends of the horn, Good to have you. Some of the songs
:38:53. > :38:57.you were involved in. Say it loud, I'm black and I'm proud. I don't
:38:58. > :39:03.want nobody to give me nothing, I'll get it myself. These were political,
:39:04. > :39:09.weren't they? Absolutely. And you knew at the time that they had a
:39:10. > :39:16.purpose? Absolutely but who knew they would last so long. Say it
:39:17. > :39:20.loud, I'm black and I'm proud. That became an anthem for black people.
:39:21. > :39:27.The first recording I did with James Brown, Pee Wee Ellis wrote the track
:39:28. > :39:31.and James Brown did some words. He brought some kids in the studio. I
:39:32. > :39:37.didn't know what was happening. When he said, say it loud, I'm black and
:39:38. > :39:43.I'm proud, that meant everything to me. Did it mean a lot to the
:39:44. > :39:47.audience as well? Absolutely. We recorded that in Los Angeles and
:39:48. > :39:52.next week we were in New York at the Apollo Theatre. James Brown said,
:39:53. > :40:02.say it loud, and the whole audience said, I'm black and I'm proud. They
:40:03. > :40:08.knew it already. Already. He had a machine that turned out records one
:40:09. > :40:12.after the other. Every six months he had a new album out. Every six
:40:13. > :40:18.months? That's a legacy worth having. Providing what became the
:40:19. > :40:29.black anthem for a long period of time. It was a good job to have. I
:40:30. > :40:37.was on that job for just about two months. That record came out. I was
:40:38. > :40:43.glad to be there. Did things change? They are slowly changing now. Just
:40:44. > :40:51.now. Very slowly, but they are changing. But the attitude changed,
:40:52. > :40:53.you know. Black people stopped thinking about being second class
:40:54. > :41:00.and being downtrodden and everything. We started to really
:41:01. > :41:04.think about being proud. But also, you just wanted the opportunity. I
:41:05. > :41:10.don't want nobody to give me nothing. Just don't get in my way,
:41:11. > :41:17.don't hold me back, that's all. Open the door, I'll get it myself. That's
:41:18. > :41:20.still true. What is president Obama's legacy going to be?
:41:21. > :41:30.Obviously the first black president but what else? That's enough. But
:41:31. > :41:35.it's just a start. It's a start but you've got to start somewhere. Has
:41:36. > :41:43.he been a good president for American black people? Yes, he has.
:41:44. > :41:52.He has been an example, a role model. He is a politician, number
:41:53. > :42:00.one. He is a great politician. And he has been able to operate between
:42:01. > :42:04.the races. There are many races in America. We have the Mexicans,
:42:05. > :42:09.Asians, black people and everybody in America. As you do here in
:42:10. > :42:13.England, too. But he has been able to manoeuvre through all of the
:42:14. > :42:20.races and still remain a good president. He has clearly broken
:42:21. > :42:24.through a barrier, and having done that, it makes it easier for those
:42:25. > :42:30.who come after, whether black, Hispanic, Asian and so on. But even
:42:31. > :42:34.having a black president for eight years has not really reduced the
:42:35. > :42:43.propensity of American police forces to kill black kids. Well, the
:42:44. > :42:48.Republicans give him a hard time. They are stopping everything he
:42:49. > :42:54.tries to do. Because they control Congress. Yes. He can't make a move
:42:55. > :42:59.without everything being wrong about him, you know. The Republicans will
:43:00. > :43:07.say is thing about it. I look at it as strictly racial. They don't like
:43:08. > :43:11.him because he is black. I really feel like that, I've got to feel
:43:12. > :43:18.like that. Everything he does is wrong. I've seen that. Was it a good
:43:19. > :43:26.night at Ronnie Scott 's? Great night. We played with a big band. We
:43:27. > :43:31.don't usually play jazz with a big band. We had a great time. We know
:43:32. > :43:35.you have come straight from there and we are grateful. We are playing
:43:36. > :43:39.there tomorrow and the next night, too. Thank you to you both.
:43:40. > :43:41.That's your lot tonight folks and for us.
:43:42. > :43:43.We're giving Lou Lou's a miss tonight.
:43:44. > :43:45.I'm off to France tomorrow and intend to spend the afternoon
:43:46. > :43:48."en terrasse", as the French say, sitting in a pavement cafe,
:43:49. > :43:52.sipping coffee and cognac, watching the world go by.
:43:53. > :43:55.Islamic State hate us for who we are and for how we live
:43:56. > :44:01.life, so I feel this little act of defiance is the least I can do.
:44:02. > :44:12.And so we leave you tonight with a man who has already beaten me
:44:13. > :44:15.to it and the Prime Minister is no doubt already pointing at fish
:44:16. > :44:18.for the cameras in a Lanzarote fish market as we speak.
:44:19. > :44:58.Nighty night, don't let Dave's staged holiday photos sting
:44:59. > :45:04.# It would be, it would be so nice...#