By-Election Special

:00:14. > :00:18.tonight on the this week Brit Awards. Do it, glamour and rock and

:00:19. > :00:35.roll. And to jobbing presenters. Michael

:00:36. > :00:39.Portillo and Alan Johnson. Alan, I cannot believe they have let us

:00:40. > :01:00.present the Brit Awards. They were getting rather political. It is a

:01:01. > :01:08.bit loud in here. Is that EUROthmics? I don't know but sweet

:01:09. > :01:15.dreams are made of this. Now the award for great British icon. This

:01:16. > :01:24.is boring. What is a British icon? The winner is... Jeremy Corbyn. Only

:01:25. > :01:28.joking. It is Ann Widdecombe. Who is she? I can't believe it. I just

:01:29. > :01:47.can't believe it. Up next, best international female

:01:48. > :01:54.artiste. And the winner is... A Swedish act. Emma Barnett. Issue

:01:55. > :01:58.foreign? I am sorry I cannot be there to collect this award in

:01:59. > :02:03.person but there has been an emergency curfew declared in

:02:04. > :02:04.Stockholm. I dedicate this award to all my fans and this week's

:02:05. > :02:22.round-up. And now, the award for the weirdest

:02:23. > :02:28.British breakthrough act. Goes to Michael Portillo. No, it doesn't.

:02:29. > :02:41.Wearing your sunglasses inside! It goes to Milton Jones. And now, what

:02:42. > :02:54.we have all been waiting for. The lifetime achievement award goes

:02:55. > :03:08.to... BLEEP. Andrew BLEEP? What is he wearing? I don't know why people

:03:09. > :03:12.watch this BLEEP every. I am. I am going to an after party. Ladies and

:03:13. > :03:19.gentlemen. Please welcome the multiple award winner, Newsnight and

:03:20. > :03:25.Question Time would never sign up. Andrew Neil.

:03:26. > :03:28.I am not worthy. But I will keep it anyway.

:03:29. > :03:32.And I must immediately confess to a little trepidation.

:03:33. > :03:34.Because as part of the Prime Minister's whirlwind tour

:03:35. > :03:38.of the unelected parts of the British Constitution,

:03:39. > :03:41.which began with her plonking herself down on the steps

:03:42. > :03:44.of the throne in the Lords during their Lordships' Brexit

:03:45. > :03:52.debate, Mrs May has decided to sit in on tonight's edition of the show.

:03:53. > :03:59.She's standing over there right now, next to the throne we keep

:04:00. > :04:01.for the BBC director-general when his wife's kicked

:04:02. > :04:06.As if she was trying to intimidate us.

:04:07. > :04:09.As if to say, one wrong step, Neil, and I'll flood this studio

:04:10. > :04:12.with hundreds of Tory guests, which would be curtains

:04:13. > :04:15.One wrong word and it's complete abolition -

:04:16. > :04:17.a fire sale of the sofa, Michael Portillo's shirts,

:04:18. > :04:23.and Molly the Dog deported back to France.

:04:24. > :04:27.And what if we mistakenly cut to her when she's eating a pie?

:04:28. > :04:35.This McWeek going out at three in the morning on the BBC's

:04:36. > :04:46.But then neither was Mrs May to become PM.

:04:47. > :04:49.And we do provide some expertise, a decent standard of debate,

:04:50. > :04:52.unlimited Blue Nun and each show is only 300 quid a go.

:04:53. > :04:55.In many ways we're better value than the Commons.

:04:56. > :04:59.Speaking of those with nothing better to do than hang around TV

:05:00. > :05:01.studios into the wee small hours, I'm joined on the sofa

:05:02. > :05:04.tonight by two remnants of the British Constitution,

:05:05. > :05:07.think of them as the Black Rod and Silver Stick of late night

:05:08. > :05:12.I speak, of course, of Michael #choochoo Portillo

:05:13. > :05:26.Welcome. Michael, your moment of the week. The Germans rejected President

:05:27. > :05:29.Trump's invitation to make a bigger contribution to Nato. They

:05:30. > :05:34.contribute only just over half of what they should. When you think the

:05:35. > :05:41.Americans have three years defended Europe, had troops in western

:05:42. > :05:46.Germany. To save Berlin. It seems ungrateful. Meanwhile, thanks to the

:05:47. > :05:49.euro, which is cheaper than the Deutschmark, the Germans are

:05:50. > :05:58.exporting, and meanwhile in southern Europe, we have unemployment. The EU

:05:59. > :06:05.has become a German scam. Not a controversial moment!

:06:06. > :06:17.Jamal al-Harith, previously known by his British name of Ronald something

:06:18. > :06:24.or other. Fiddler. He was released from Guantanamo Bay in 2004 and was

:06:25. > :06:29.found to be fighting in Syria for Isil, this week. The controversy is

:06:30. > :06:36.not that he was released from Guantanamo Bay. Many of the

:06:37. > :06:40.newspapers are saying Tony Blair was wrong to campaign... Campaigning

:06:41. > :06:46.with Tony Blair. As Tony Blair pointed out. It was outrageous they

:06:47. > :06:51.were in Guantanamo. Neither is the fact that he was paid compensation.

:06:52. > :06:54.We in government thought we would get a closed session in court to

:06:55. > :06:58.reveal the issues around security that should not be in open court and

:06:59. > :07:04.the Court of Appeal ruled against that in 2010 and the government were

:07:05. > :07:09.right to do that. The issue is, what was the surveillance after he was

:07:10. > :07:14.released, and secondly, how... What watchlist was he on to make sure he

:07:15. > :07:18.was not moving around the world? Those of the two questions. Yvette

:07:19. > :07:26.Cooper raise them in Parliament today. The other two issues are

:07:27. > :07:29.superfluous to this argument. We had reports he had become a suicide

:07:30. > :07:33.bomber and blew himself up but that is not confirmed. All right.

:07:34. > :07:34.Now, at this stage in the proceedings we'd

:07:35. > :07:37.like to offer our warmest congratulations to Paul Nuttall

:07:38. > :07:41.MP on his victory in the Stoke-on-Trent by-election.

:07:42. > :07:44.I appreciate the more sentient among you will realise that the results

:07:45. > :07:48.aren't in yet and that this is just another example of fake news.

:07:49. > :07:51.But face facts - Ukip's leader has a Hillsborough Hero medal,

:07:52. > :07:56.a PhD from Harvard and was Man U's star striker for a decade.

:07:57. > :08:01.Such a Renaissance Man was always going to be a shoo-in.

:08:02. > :08:03.It follows that we must send our sincere commiserations

:08:04. > :08:12.We've been spoiled with his wisdom and insights during the campaign,

:08:13. > :08:14.especially about women or, as he calls them, "squabbling

:08:15. > :08:18.Clearly this is the man who taught Donald Trump everything

:08:19. > :08:25.Meanwhile, with their enemies in chaos all around them,

:08:26. > :08:28.Mrs May's Tories grow smugger than Jack Smug McSmug the year

:08:29. > :08:31.he won the Smuggest Person of the Year competition.

:08:32. > :08:33.But when they're not smugging it up, do they ever wonder

:08:34. > :08:45.Here's Ann Widdecombe with her take of the week.

:08:46. > :08:52.It hasn't been done for more than 30 years but now it looks

:08:53. > :08:55.as if a governing party is about to win a safe

:08:56. > :09:02.And if that does happen, then unless a miracle rescues

:09:03. > :09:05.Jeremy Corbyn's chaotic divided party, Theresa May should make plans

:09:06. > :09:07.for ten, rather than five years of Government,

:09:08. > :09:15.something which of course Margaret Thatcher achieved.

:09:16. > :09:18.It's an opportunity to build a really bold agenda.

:09:19. > :09:24.Now, of course, Theresa May's got to concentrate on Brexit.

:09:25. > :09:27.But nevertheless, this opens up a chance to really sort out

:09:28. > :09:30.the country in a large number of ways.

:09:31. > :09:40.It was set up on the assumption that, as we all grew healthier,

:09:41. > :09:43.demand would decline, whereas the explosion of medical

:09:44. > :09:46.and surgical science has sent that demand towards infinity.

:09:47. > :09:50.So we've got to ask, what would we do if we were starting

:09:51. > :09:52.again from scratch and to have the courage to look

:09:53. > :10:02.A solution is going to require courage and political will.

:10:03. > :10:04.We also have an education system that is churning out

:10:05. > :10:08.Theresa May's acknowledged that grammar schools

:10:09. > :10:19.And we've got a welfare system that's still seriously abused,

:10:20. > :10:22.we have demoralised and poorly equipped troops and then

:10:23. > :10:27.there are all those decisions on low tax economy and on debt reduction.

:10:28. > :10:37.We must show that we are the party that will tackle these

:10:38. > :10:40.for the long-term, not just tinker about timidly for a Parliament.

:10:41. > :10:43.When our first woman Prime Minister left 10 Downing Street,

:10:44. > :10:45.she also left behind a country that was permanently

:10:46. > :11:09.Ann Widdecombe is with me now. Welcome. What makes you think

:11:10. > :11:15.Theresa May has any kind of philosophy? Never mind a radical

:11:16. > :11:19.reforming agenda quests like I was not talking about philosophy, I was

:11:20. > :11:23.not talking about words, I was talking about serious action and the

:11:24. > :11:26.fact is a succession of governments has ignored the obvious, which is

:11:27. > :11:32.the health service was not designed to cover what we are now asking.

:11:33. > :11:39.My question is what makes you think she is up for any of this? I hope

:11:40. > :11:45.she will do it. If she does get ten years rather than five, if Jeremy

:11:46. > :11:51.Corbyn carries on as he is, if she gets ten years, this is the

:11:52. > :11:54.opportunity. What is it in her political track record that would

:11:55. > :11:59.make you think she is up for it? Time will tell. The fact is she has

:12:00. > :12:04.a series of problems and what I am saying is she can confront them, she

:12:05. > :12:08.has got to worry about Brexit, of course, it will be the major thing

:12:09. > :12:12.that dominates her first term. She has a real opportunity to look at

:12:13. > :12:18.the long-term. You said that. It is not what I am asking. What big ideas

:12:19. > :12:24.has she been associated with? We shall now find out. I am asking

:12:25. > :12:27.about the past. Hang on, she is now Prime Minister. When she was Shadow

:12:28. > :12:33.Secretary of State for Education she came up with the good programme I

:12:34. > :12:40.thought of free schools. I think she can. Hang on. I think she can think

:12:41. > :12:46.imaginatively. You are telling me she can't. Time will tell. She

:12:47. > :12:50.didn't come up with... I did not say she invented it that she came up

:12:51. > :12:55.with an agenda to free up money to spend on schools rather than

:12:56. > :12:57.education in theory. Parking Brexit. Do you know what else Theresa May

:12:58. > :13:14.wants to achieve in office? I'm afraid we don't. We were wanting

:13:15. > :13:19.to balance the books by 2016. By 2015. Yes. There is a bit of grammar

:13:20. > :13:23.schools going on. Beyond that, it's hard to say. I'm surprised Anne

:13:24. > :13:27.Widdecombe didn't mention home ownership. Tories ought to be doing

:13:28. > :13:32.something about home ownership and we discussed this. It's falling?

:13:33. > :13:36.Yes, and what the Communities Secretary announced about two weeks

:13:37. > :13:39.ago now I think was very, very half baked indeed. There are all these

:13:40. > :13:44.things that Tories ought to be tackling but with which are going by

:13:45. > :13:48.the wayside. It remind me of Blair's Government. His first Government had

:13:49. > :13:52.this extraordinary opportunity because the opposition was nowhere,

:13:53. > :13:55.to do whatever it wanted. The Conservatives have that opportunity

:13:56. > :14:01.today. The Tories are 18 points ahead in

:14:02. > :14:07.the polls. Without Anne Widdecombe's radical agenda, maybe they don't

:14:08. > :14:11.need it? Well, I thought Anne was right on two things. First of all, I

:14:12. > :14:17.think Brexit is too dominant in that. In a sense, any Prime Minister

:14:18. > :14:23.would be excited with this. Overwhelmed. It's going to take

:14:24. > :14:27.every ounce of energy. On the other hand, the other issue is, she should

:14:28. > :14:31.be thinking of other things. She's only got a majority, some say 16,

:14:32. > :14:36.some say ten, she's got a very small majority. Now, it's a fair

:14:37. > :14:42.criticism, we had a very big 177-seat majority. But there again,

:14:43. > :14:46.to be fair to that Blair Government, they were absolutely convinced that

:14:47. > :14:50.they shouldn't act adds some sort of dictatorship because they had a huge

:14:51. > :14:55.majority. Mr Blair always regretted he didn't do enough. No, but what

:14:56. > :15:01.they did is start the process of Sure Start centres and a ten-year

:15:02. > :15:06.NHS plan. What they did is start the process of reducing child poverty.

:15:07. > :15:09.I'm asking - your piece was about... It has to be challenged. You

:15:10. > :15:15.shouldn't get away with just saying it. I'm challenging it now. Blair

:15:16. > :15:20.was extremely dictatorial. Let me suggest who may be a problem here.

:15:21. > :15:24.If you speak to those around 10 Downing Street, those very close to

:15:25. > :15:29.it, they say she wants to keep Britain global while making ordinary

:15:30. > :15:33.families feel secure against the effects of globalisation. She wants

:15:34. > :15:40.to have some middle way between the kind of Trump nationalism and the

:15:41. > :15:44.Blairite globalisation. That could mitigate against anything too

:15:45. > :15:49.radical on welfare of the NHS? I don't think so. I mean yes, she's

:15:50. > :15:54.got to look globally. Post-Brexit, we are going to be looking globally

:15:55. > :15:58.in a big way rather than within Europe, so obviously she's got to

:15:59. > :16:01.have a global programme and that's right and her attitude towards the

:16:02. > :16:04.United States is right, for example, she's looking to what's going to

:16:05. > :16:10.happen when the country's actually left the EU. That has to be right.

:16:11. > :16:15.But of course, at the same time, she's got to consider how people are

:16:16. > :16:17.feeling in this country, what their particular concerns are, and I think

:16:18. > :16:21.she's showing every sign of doing that. She's the one who talks about

:16:22. > :16:25.people who're just about managing which actually is a good phrase

:16:26. > :16:31.because there are an awful lot of people in the country who are just

:16:32. > :16:36.about managing. She has ditched it? OK but it's a good phrase. Never

:16:37. > :16:41.mind whether they'll carry on using it and call it jams, but there are

:16:42. > :16:45.lots of people who're neither on welfare nor earning a lot of money,

:16:46. > :16:49.who are just about managing, it's a good concept. It reminds me of

:16:50. > :16:55.Margaret Thatcher who used to talk about stridents. She did a lot for

:16:56. > :17:01.them. Here is the problem with the jams, the just about managings, Mrs

:17:02. > :17:05.May's made the centrepiece of these people, they are about to have their

:17:06. > :17:10.living standards squeezed by rising inflation and they are on welfare a

:17:11. > :17:14.lot of them, Working Tax Credits, welfare, and they are being frozen.

:17:15. > :17:23.So what is she going to do for them? There is quite a lot. First of all,

:17:24. > :17:28.Conservative Government and you are right home ownership is massive, it

:17:29. > :17:32.tries to stimulate business, tries to create jobs, government doesn't

:17:33. > :17:36.create jobs but tries to create the atmosphere in which jobs can follow

:17:37. > :17:41.and that sort of prosperity. It tries above all to create aspiration

:17:42. > :17:45.and to make the most of opportunity, hence grammar schools, so I think

:17:46. > :17:49.there is a lot that Theresa May can do but it's not going to happen by

:17:50. > :17:53.Wednesday afternoon. But the whole point of what I was saying was,

:17:54. > :17:57.there are some very big issues which successive Governments have not

:17:58. > :18:01.tackled. I really urge her to tackle those. I think we've got that

:18:02. > :18:06.message all right. Have you? The question is whether she has.

:18:07. > :18:11.Michael Portillo finally on this. There must be a huge danger that

:18:12. > :18:16.Brexit and the demands of Brexit just suck the energy and are

:18:17. > :18:21.all-consuming for the Government? Well, I accept what Alan said, there

:18:22. > :18:25.might be fairly all-consuming for the Prime Minister but there is a

:18:26. > :18:30.Cabinet of 20 people and they are meant to be capable people and this

:18:31. > :18:34.stuff should be delegated and marks given for radicalism and energy and

:18:35. > :18:38.innovation and imagination. You know, for instance, Michael Gove in

:18:39. > :18:41.whichever department you put him, was an enormous reformer but of

:18:42. > :18:45.course Michael Gove is not a member of this Government and I don't see

:18:46. > :18:50.anybody else having his sort of instincts. Before you go, Anne, what

:18:51. > :18:55.would you advise Mrs May to do about the NHS? This is what I really want

:18:56. > :19:02.to see and have been saying this since 1998 - I want a mature debate,

:19:03. > :19:07.across the parties, across the country, across all interest groups

:19:08. > :19:10.- a mature debate about what the options might be, looking at

:19:11. > :19:15.possible models from other countries and have an open debate about that,

:19:16. > :19:19.without, if I may say so, Alan's party saying, we are going to

:19:20. > :19:25.privatise the NHS. But they would say that. And then when we have got

:19:26. > :19:29.a preferred option, we then have to work out how on earth you get there

:19:30. > :19:33.from here. It's a serious grown-up business and I'm sick about hearing

:19:34. > :19:37.which party is spending more on the NHS, let's sort it out otherwise

:19:38. > :19:41.people are going to be completely dispossessed because they are not

:19:42. > :19:45.going to be able to afford... You want a debate? A very serious

:19:46. > :19:49.grown-up, no holds barred, look at all the options debate. All right.

:19:50. > :19:53.And that takes courage. Thank you.

:19:54. > :19:58.But we know, you've been through a lot recently.

:19:59. > :20:02.And, no sooner were our prayers answered,

:20:03. > :20:04.than we had to start dealing with the emotional

:20:05. > :20:22.So it's just as well that waiting in the wings is whacky and wonderful

:20:23. > :20:25.comedian Milton Jones, putting all things weird in our spotlight.

:20:26. > :20:28.We know you're all just a bunch of Facebonkers SnapPots so go

:20:29. > :20:32.Now, we've received explicit orders from Downing Street that this show

:20:33. > :20:34.is no longer to be called Just About Managing.

:20:35. > :20:37.We've been renamed Ordinary Working People,

:20:38. > :20:41.to conform with the PM's latest patronising and meaningless

:20:42. > :20:43.description for the sort of people most of the Cabinet have never met

:20:44. > :20:49.But this new nomenclature presents us with a few problems,

:20:50. > :20:51.though it's true we've never really managed anything we have always

:20:52. > :20:58.But if you're ordinary and hard-working, you've really come

:20:59. > :21:01.to the wrong place and probably went to bed hours ago because you've

:21:02. > :21:05.Anyway, here's party girl Emma Barnett with her round up

:21:06. > :21:13.Andrew has put me in charge of organising the This Week

:21:14. > :21:15.by-election party and they've chosen the theme.

:21:16. > :21:26.Maybe that was the incident that the Donald was

:21:27. > :21:29.Actually, there were disturbances in Sweden this

:21:30. > :21:33.week, but only after Mystic Donald had warned us there

:21:34. > :21:41.Is there no end to Donald Trump's powers?

:21:42. > :21:47.The Scandi thing is only about ten years out of date,

:21:48. > :21:57.# Friday night and the nights are no # Looking out for a place to go

:21:58. > :22:05.It's a good thing we are using Alan's bedsit, because

:22:06. > :22:11.there is no way Michael's neighbours would be OK with this in his flat.

:22:12. > :22:15.The political week began with more fallout over false

:22:16. > :22:18.claims on Ukip leader's Paul Nuttall's website that he'd lost a

:22:19. > :22:31.Two Ukip officials resigned and the whole row overshadowed the

:22:32. > :22:34.campaign in final days of the by-election in

:22:35. > :22:40.He should come to the city of Liverpool and

:22:41. > :22:42.say listen, I am sorry for that error.

:22:43. > :22:44.Paul Nuttall defended himself saying, at least I didn't say

:22:45. > :22:55.I want to put things in perspective. It's not as if I've taken illegally

:22:56. > :23:01.from the public purse, it's not as if I've said something racist, it's

:23:02. > :23:09.not as if I've sent people to war. # Super trooper... #

:23:10. > :23:13.As if things weren't exciting enough in Stoke already, the town had a

:23:14. > :23:19.visit from the Prime Minister. She pops up to tell them how good Brexit

:23:20. > :23:21.would be for the pottery industry. SMASH...

:23:22. > :23:34.Might have overcooked the meatballs! That reminds me, the This Week party

:23:35. > :23:39.guest list is very strict. No unwanted droppings, right.

:23:40. > :23:43.MPs in the Commons debated their own unwelcome visitor this week,

:23:44. > :23:47.President Donald Trump. The debate won't affect the state visit of

:23:48. > :23:53.course, but MPs couldn't resist the opportunity to sound off, all for

:23:54. > :23:58.the good of democracy, of course. He shouldn't be accorded the rare

:23:59. > :24:03.privilege of a state visit -- afforded. Only two Presidents of the

:24:04. > :24:09.United States have been granted a state visit since 1952.

:24:10. > :24:14.THE SPEAKER: I do respect I respect the fact he stood on a platform

:24:15. > :24:17.which he is delivering. He's going to be roundly condemned for being

:24:18. > :24:23.the only politician to deliver on his promises. There'll be smiles all

:24:24. > :24:26.round the Kremlin if we follow this politician. The one thing they want

:24:27. > :24:30.above all else is to divide the West. The Lords were dealing with

:24:31. > :24:35.their own unwelcome visitor, the Prime Minister who popped up again,

:24:36. > :24:38.resumibly on her way back from Stoke to shoot evils at the peers gathered

:24:39. > :24:43.for the Brexit Bill's second reading inned the House of Lords. The vote

:24:44. > :24:48.was never in downedth doubt, but 187 peers still had their say.

:24:49. > :24:53.When the British people have spoken, you do what they command. The Either

:24:54. > :24:59.you believe in democracy or you don't. Any people who retreat into

:25:00. > :25:04.are going to come back for a second month, they don't believe in

:25:05. > :25:09.democracy. My Lords I believe in democracy and I believe we should

:25:10. > :25:13.proceed rapidly with this Bill. If the decision to leave were to result

:25:14. > :25:17.in more serious focus on these charges and smarter better thought

:25:18. > :25:22.out policies, then it might allow for some positives of the EU

:25:23. > :25:28.departure than otherwise might not have occurred or might have not have

:25:29. > :25:32.occurred. There is, as of yet, no real evidence to support such an

:25:33. > :25:37.optimistic hope, but one lives in hope. Despite the marathon debate,

:25:38. > :25:41.the Lords passed the Bill without any amendments, but there was a

:25:42. > :25:47.stark reminder from the European Union that trouble lies ahead for

:25:48. > :25:51.the Government. Former EU President, her man van Rompuy reminded us that

:25:52. > :25:55.Britain is isolated and lacking friends. Good luck with that trade

:25:56. > :26:02.deal, Mrs May. Hm, might not be needing as many of these after all.

:26:03. > :26:11.Britain lost friends in the last years and months. The new member

:26:12. > :26:17.states are upset about the migration proposals. The French Presidential

:26:18. > :26:23.candidate struck a similar unfriendly note. He wants to lure

:26:24. > :26:30.all British skilled workers to France, post-Brexit. We won't have

:26:31. > :26:37.any friends left for this Swedish party. I was very happy to see that

:26:38. > :26:43.because of the Brexit was considered to come to France precisely to work,

:26:44. > :26:49.it will be part of my programme to be attractedive to this kind of

:26:50. > :26:53.people. No Swedish party would be complete without a sauna. Costs a

:26:54. > :26:58.fortune in hot water. Michael loves it. Jeremy Corbyn turned up the heat

:26:59. > :27:04.on Theresa May this week at Prime Minister's Questions all over the

:27:05. > :27:10.NHS. The legacy of her Government will be blighting our NHS for

:27:11. > :27:14.decades. Fewer hospitals, fewer A departments, fewer nurses and fewer

:27:15. > :27:21.people getting the care they need. We need a Government that puts the

:27:22. > :27:32.NHS first and will invest in our NHS. But May steamed back without

:27:33. > :27:39.breaking a sweat with rabble-rousing lines about economic competence. If

:27:40. > :27:42.you are going to fund the NHS, you need a strong economy but now we

:27:43. > :27:46.know Labour have a different sort of phrase now for their approach to

:27:47. > :27:49.these things. Remember Labour used to talk about Boom And Bust, now

:27:50. > :28:03.it's no longer Boom And Bust, it's borrow and bankrupt.

:28:04. > :28:10.# Just one look and I can hear a bell ring... #

:28:11. > :28:15.I need some help with building this furniture.

:28:16. > :28:18.Good evening, Prime Minister. Gosh, you do get around. Take those shoes

:28:19. > :28:34.off, you'd better come in. Yippee. You can serve the meatballs, just

:28:35. > :28:40.don't talk to anyone, Theresa May. And we're joined now

:28:41. > :28:52.by the lovely Miranda Green. Will it prove powerless over Brexit

:28:53. > :28:57.in the end? I get the impression they feel nervous about being seen

:28:58. > :29:03.to block the Commons and about the referendum. They feel I think it is

:29:04. > :29:08.within their power to send it back to the Commons. Once. Exactly. Do

:29:09. > :29:16.not expect ping-pong and there is no appetite for it. But they want to

:29:17. > :29:29.make a few hard about the question of EU citizens in the UK. -- hoo ha

:29:30. > :29:34.stop --. I think they would be crazy to have a war with the government

:29:35. > :29:38.over the result of the referendum. If we had a second chamber with

:29:39. > :29:44.democratic legitimacy it would have had more power in this process? It

:29:45. > :29:48.would but it does not have that legitimacy and the legitimacy in the

:29:49. > :29:56.Brexit process lies with the people who voted. But the majority to

:29:57. > :29:59.leave. That is the primary thing they have to keep in mind and

:30:00. > :30:07.respect the will of the people. Michael, if the EU, as some are

:30:08. > :30:12.saying it will, insist on Britain agreeing that has to agree to pay a

:30:13. > :30:15.massive divorce bill before negotiating any future EU - UK

:30:16. > :30:22.relationship, could that scupper the talks? I very much doubt it. That is

:30:23. > :30:28.the position Jean-Claude Juncker has taken. A spokesman for Angela

:30:29. > :30:32.Merkel's party said he thought that was wrong tactics to be adopting.

:30:33. > :30:38.Remember this has to have a political solution at the end.

:30:39. > :30:42.Angela Merkel would be absolutely distraught if the negotiations broke

:30:43. > :30:48.down at the first fence. I don't think that will happen. A general

:30:49. > :30:52.point. We keep worrying in this country about our disadvantages.

:30:53. > :30:56.Sometimes you have to look at it the other way round. We're worried about

:30:57. > :31:00.whether the City of London will survive as a major financial centre.

:31:01. > :31:05.Europe should be worried about cutting itself off from the greatest

:31:06. > :31:08.financial centre in the world. Allen, there are political

:31:09. > :31:19.insurgencies in Holland, France, Italy. Beppe Grillo's party is

:31:20. > :31:31.number one Indesit the moment. The Greek crisis, is back again.

:31:32. > :31:38.Predictions of the EU's demise, which we have talked about on this

:31:39. > :31:43.programme for donkey's years. I did not say eyes, I said is it in any

:31:44. > :31:54.shape to negotiate? They are growing at a greater rate of -- than America

:31:55. > :31:59.at the moment. Britain... All the people you mention, none of them are

:32:00. > :32:06.saying come out of Europe. In Italy it's about the euro. In France it is

:32:07. > :32:19.about... Marine Le Pen wants a referendum. She wants a referendum.

:32:20. > :32:21.And in Holland. There is no feeling that the public... If anything, they

:32:22. > :32:25.have seen what has happened in Britain and moved away from the

:32:26. > :32:35.idea. I think there will be a proper negotiation. The main negotiator

:32:36. > :32:40.wanted the money sorted out first. He represents the commission. I want

:32:41. > :32:44.the British Government to succeed on this and understand the point David

:32:45. > :32:49.Davis and others are making. The other side have to be aware that

:32:50. > :32:54.Britain would be willing to walk away. That has got to be the opening

:32:55. > :32:59.gambit. But, if it comes to that, they must know it will be a

:33:00. > :33:05.disastrous consequence for this country. A European demand for a

:33:06. > :33:11.huge Brexit would be something they British Government could agree to.

:33:12. > :33:13.It is preposterous and I think the government underestimates the

:33:14. > :33:19.strength of this country and what we have to offer to the EU. We could

:33:20. > :33:24.offer the EU access to our markets and for businesses to export to us,

:33:25. > :33:31.which they do by about ?90 billion a year more than we export. There is a

:33:32. > :33:37.lot of trouble in Europe. Reading tonight the bank of Italy, the

:33:38. > :33:43.central bank, owes the ECB over 200 billion euros. 20% of Italy's GDP.

:33:44. > :33:49.You could see why Brussels is worried by what they would regard as

:33:50. > :33:58.perfidious Albion. You could play divide and rule ended -- in the

:33:59. > :34:01.negotiations. The City of London is a great resource for the rest of

:34:02. > :34:06.Europe and I am sure the British Government would be keen not to

:34:07. > :34:12.underplay their hand. However, it is important for British as nurse and I

:34:13. > :34:18.don't just mean large important sectors like manufacturing,

:34:19. > :34:24.pharmaceuticals, who can lobby government to make sure their

:34:25. > :34:28.sectors are looked after. Lots of businesses, small businesses, other

:34:29. > :34:33.sectors which are not discussed in the context of Brexit, creative

:34:34. > :34:36.industries, are relying hugely on relationships with Europe and on

:34:37. > :34:44.things like the free movement of people. It is important we do not

:34:45. > :34:49.hobble our economy in this process. I understand the point of let's be

:34:50. > :34:52.optimistic and play a strong hand, but we must be realistic about the

:34:53. > :34:56.potential damage to the economy from Brexit.

:34:57. > :34:58.Now, from the boring monotony of the This Week studio

:34:59. > :35:02.to the boring monotony of the counts at the Stoke on Trent by-election

:35:03. > :35:07.Our correspondent Chris Mason is there.

:35:08. > :35:20.Give us the latest, Chris. Good evening. I think it will be a few

:35:21. > :35:25.hours yet before you can put on your pink fluffy pyjamas. Still some

:35:26. > :35:29.counting to be done as the hours trundle on. 38% is the turnout

:35:30. > :35:36.figure. I think even though it is not exactly a vast behind number,

:35:37. > :35:42.given the consensus here, it seems to be the winner has been Storm

:35:43. > :35:47.Doris. Putting people off wanting to vote and making it hard for those

:35:48. > :35:52.knocking up the vote for all the parties. 38% is probably on the

:35:53. > :35:57.upside of what some expected turnout wise, given it is a by-election and

:35:58. > :36:03.in Stoke and there have been low turnouts down the years and given

:36:04. > :36:09.the weather conditions. I have been chatting to Jack Dromey, the Labour

:36:10. > :36:14.MP tonight, saying he was cautiously optimistic. Usually the language at

:36:15. > :36:19.an event like this that means they have won. He described it as a 3-way

:36:20. > :36:25.marginal, which tells you how this seat or perhaps Labour has changed.

:36:26. > :36:31.This is a seat Labour has held on its current boundaries or close to

:36:32. > :36:36.those, since the 1930s and for Jack Dromey to describe it as a 3-way

:36:37. > :36:42.marginal, even if they held, tells you it's own story. We will come

:36:43. > :36:48.back to you as night goes on. The turnout in Coke -- Copeland is over

:36:49. > :36:49.51%. And Tom Bateman is at

:36:50. > :37:02.the Copeland count. He is in a sports centre like Chris.

:37:03. > :37:08.We can find out what the latest is. We have just had the turnout figure

:37:09. > :37:12.of 51%, which is pretty good, considering it is a by-election, and

:37:13. > :37:18.a high level of engagement given what was a bare knuckle fighting the

:37:19. > :37:23.campaign. Let's remind ourselves what is at stake. Labour have held

:37:24. > :37:27.the seat since 1935 and yet they find themselves on the defensive, on

:37:28. > :37:33.the back foot, trying to hold on to a seat against a governing

:37:34. > :37:37.Conservative Party and frankly in normal circumstances they should

:37:38. > :37:42.easily hold, defending a 2500 majority. There has been noise about

:37:43. > :37:49.whether the Conservatives will gain the seat. Chatting to people here

:37:50. > :37:53.and taking a look at the votes, it looks finely balanced, to me and

:37:54. > :37:56.other observers. One senior Conservative figure in the region

:37:57. > :38:01.said as he walked from one side of the room he got confident. He looked

:38:02. > :38:09.at votes on another table and not quite so. We will have to wait. It

:38:10. > :38:15.is a constituency, a vast rural constituency from the Cumbrian coast

:38:16. > :38:20.to the Lake District and it is my understanding parties did not have

:38:21. > :38:25.feelers out in all polling booths. A closely fought race. Jeremy Corbyn

:38:26. > :38:30.saying tonight whatever the results, signalling he will stay on and fight

:38:31. > :38:34.for what he called his mass membership movement, trying to break

:38:35. > :38:39.the political consensus. Perhaps not the words of somebody feeling that

:38:40. > :38:44.he is worried about these seats and what it means for his leadership and

:38:45. > :38:50.also signalling frankly he will stay on. We will leave it there. Still

:38:51. > :38:54.uncertainty. Our correspondent not able yet to give a clear steer on

:38:55. > :38:58.the results in either by-election, which is why we will stay on air

:38:59. > :39:05.through the night and give you results as they come. If you do not

:39:06. > :39:11.win Stoke, how damaging is it for Ukip? We hope to win Stoke. I think

:39:12. > :39:16.it will be close, if we do not win. It shows we are nipping on the heels

:39:17. > :39:21.of labour in the Midlands and the doors. We will have to wait and see

:39:22. > :39:27.what happens. What is Paul Nuttall's future if you lose? He will continue

:39:28. > :39:32.to be the leader of the party. He has served the party eight years as

:39:33. > :39:37.chairman, deputy leader and now the leader and he got a standing ovation

:39:38. > :39:41.at the spring conference. Leaders always get standing ovations at

:39:42. > :39:48.conference. It has not been a great campaign. Many Ukip supporters will

:39:49. > :39:52.see it as a lost opportunity. It has been a difficult campaign and in

:39:53. > :39:57.some ways a nasty campaign. His house in Stoke was attacked and

:39:58. > :40:03.people tried to break in. There have been personal attacks on him. He is

:40:04. > :40:08.a great leader for Ukip and has given the party hope and has a lot

:40:09. > :40:13.of support. Despite Ph.D. That never was, the Tranmere Rovers contract

:40:14. > :40:17.that never was, the Hillsborough problems. He is giving a lead on

:40:18. > :40:25.policy and in Stoke. He fought a good campaign. There is still...

:40:26. > :40:30.Votes have not been counted. They have not been finished being

:40:31. > :40:39.counted. Labour seems reasonably confident. They are not sure by what

:40:40. > :40:42.majority. Still uncertain. If Labour loses Copeland to the Tories that is

:40:43. > :40:49.an event of the historic magnitude? It is certainly a bad by-election

:40:50. > :40:57.result. By-elections are therefore oppositions to prosper. I hope we

:40:58. > :41:05.win it. We have a good candidate in Copeland and in Stoke. You had a

:41:06. > :41:11.good candidate in Stoke. Yes. I thought Gareth Snell was very good.

:41:12. > :41:38.Everything he said about within's look, I don't agree with that.

:41:39. > :42:21.Jeremy The Conservative Party don't want to

:42:22. > :42:24.see Nuttall in. Parliament don't even want Labour humiliated to the

:42:25. > :42:31.point where Jeremy Corbyn might be remove and obviously it would be a

:42:32. > :42:34.wonderful thing for Philip to win Copeland. The point of this

:42:35. > :42:39.by-election from a Conservative point of view is to prove that Ukip

:42:40. > :42:43.has no validity, no utility and also in Copeland that the Tories can be a

:42:44. > :42:52.serious party in the north of England. Revolutionary stuff. Is it

:42:53. > :42:55.not the case that even if Mr Corbyn does very badly tonight, it looks as

:42:56. > :43:06.though he'll probably hold on to Stoke and could hold on to Copeland

:43:07. > :43:09.too but could lose that. If he loses badly, the party have tried and

:43:10. > :43:13.failed to get rid of him, only the left can get rid of him if they want

:43:14. > :43:17.to and if they don't want to, he stays? Absolutely. In fact it seems

:43:18. > :43:22.to me that in Copeland it's a win-win for the Conservatives

:43:23. > :43:25.because either they gain an extra MP and defeat the Labour Party or

:43:26. > :43:32.Jeremy Corbyn survives in Copeland and carries on even more

:43:33. > :43:35.strengthened as leader. I think that Jeremy Corbyn's position as Labour

:43:36. > :43:39.Leader will only end when he himself decides to go. I can't see how

:43:40. > :43:44.anyone in the Labour Party can dislodge him and this mass

:43:45. > :43:47.membership that they now have, you know, it dwarfs every other

:43:48. > :43:51.political party. That's nothing to do with winning elections but try

:43:52. > :43:56.telling them that. Is it only the left? Is Mr Corbyn's fate in the

:43:57. > :44:03.hands of the left now? No, I don't think it is. But, we went through...

:44:04. > :44:07.It's not in your hands any more. You say any hands, in terms of the

:44:08. > :44:10.Labour Parliamentary party who is the gateway to candidates, they

:44:11. > :44:13.should have realised that before, by the way, the only strength they've

:44:14. > :44:18.got in this is to be the gateway to who stands as a candidate. There's

:44:19. > :44:22.no feeling within the PLP first of all that they want to challenge

:44:23. > :44:25.Jeremy Corbyn, he's there until the next general election no matter what

:44:26. > :44:29.happens tonight and when there is another election, they'll think more

:44:30. > :44:54.carefully about it than they did last time. Thank you both.

:44:55. > :45:03.Bonkers Tom Watson got so gassed off by Jeremy Corbyn's performance that

:45:04. > :45:16.he started dabbing on the frontbenches. Y of-lo. Weirdness is

:45:17. > :45:20.in the Spotlight. Well, the Prime Minister ditched

:45:21. > :45:32.the weird acronym for something Ordinary working families up

:45:33. > :45:40.and down this country. Despite Mrs May's attempts to appear

:45:41. > :45:42.ordinary, singer Katy Perry presented the PM's special

:45:43. > :45:44.relationship with Donald Trump in a curious way at last

:45:45. > :46:02.night's Brit Awards. Was it weird when

:46:03. > :46:04.Donald Trump said this? MPs were divided over the matter

:46:05. > :46:07.in Westminster Hall on Monday. I think of my five-year-old daughter

:46:08. > :46:10.when I think about a man who thinks Which one of us has not made some

:46:11. > :46:15.ridiculous sexual comment Meanwhile, was it weird

:46:16. > :46:22.when Sutton United's Wayne Shaw ate Wayne Shaw has decided

:46:23. > :46:28.to get stuck into a pie. The incident got him

:46:29. > :46:33.into a whole heap of trouble. Milton Jones's comedy

:46:34. > :46:36.is a bit weird. How many tiny farmers

:46:37. > :46:40.with their tiny ploughs does it take In strange political

:46:41. > :47:11.times, is weirdness Milton Jones joins us now. Is

:47:12. > :47:14.weirdness part of your act? I thought I was weird until the

:47:15. > :47:23.beginning of the programme. Very good point. Fair point. My act is

:47:24. > :47:28.talking nonsense with messed up hair until Boris Johnson stole that.

:47:29. > :47:33.Basically I used to do my one-liners as myself and just go in, but on a

:47:34. > :47:38.Monday night in Essex you go in and suddenly it would be a bit

:47:39. > :47:42.threatening to the middle class bloke talking weirdy stuff, however

:47:43. > :47:47.if you stuck your hair up. I was sitting in traffic the other day and

:47:48. > :47:51.I got run over, normally I say, the higher the hair the thicker the

:47:52. > :47:58.crowd so I might have to put the hair a bit higher this evening. Your

:47:59. > :48:11.combined IQ is in double figures barely. You can't insult us, we get

:48:12. > :48:19.this all the time. Is weirdness underrated? When I think of some of

:48:20. > :48:28.the politicians that are well known, people kind of like or talk about

:48:29. > :48:33.Boris Johnson or Denis Skinner or Jacob Rees-Mogg, some may regard

:48:34. > :48:37.them as weird but it makes them distinctive? If people don't

:48:38. > :48:42.remember my name, they go the guy with the hair and the shirts. You

:48:43. > :48:46.want to kind of choose what people remember you by. The press will

:48:47. > :48:50.choose it and it won't necessarily be something you like. Do you have a

:48:51. > :48:57.favourite political weirdo, other than these two? Farage is a

:48:58. > :49:02.colourful character which is ironic. Obviously Trump. He's going to be

:49:03. > :49:09.remembered as very weird. I mean he makes no bones about it. I think he

:49:10. > :49:16.read somewhere that Mexicans make good fighters, but it's actually

:49:17. > :49:19.pronounced fajitas. Your hair is understated for a Trump

:49:20. > :49:24.impersonator? But the more intelligence the company the hair

:49:25. > :49:30.comes down. We'll keep it up for tonight. Is Theresa May a bit weird?

:49:31. > :49:34.No. I don't think so. I wish she were a bit more weird because I

:49:35. > :49:38.entirely agree that if we are going to get ahead, there has to be

:49:39. > :49:45.something distinctive about her that people can remember. No. I think she

:49:46. > :49:49.is, to use her word, "ordinary". Is Jeremy Corbyn a bit weird? No, I

:49:50. > :49:52.think the whole thing about weirdness doesn't translate to

:49:53. > :50:00.politics if someone is trying to be weird. The thing about politics is

:50:01. > :50:03.authenticity. It's much-used words but people like Jacob Rees-Mogg,

:50:04. > :50:09.they are being themselves and they are not putting on an act. I think

:50:10. > :50:13.Milton does this because he has an act to put on. People don't like

:50:14. > :50:18.politicians who put on an act and weirdness is a concept that works.

:50:19. > :50:23.Power does tend to corrupt in the end and people become weird almost

:50:24. > :50:28.in office. The sort of Mugabes and Putins to some extent. Neither of us

:50:29. > :50:35.was corrupted. We didn't have any chance. The decision was taken for

:50:36. > :50:41.them. Absolutely. Things are weird. Many used to regard Brexit as weird.

:50:42. > :50:54.Mr Corbyn's form of socialism as well.

:50:55. > :50:59.People are conscious about what is true and not and who they can trust.

:51:00. > :51:05.I can't see a way out of it because who is the referee? Exactly. People

:51:06. > :51:08.who want to be the referee, like the mainstream media, a lot of people

:51:09. > :51:12.won't accept the mainstream It doesn't matter what Trump does now,

:51:13. > :51:25.there'll always be a large section of people who believe in it.

:51:26. > :51:32.By not doing that, does that make you a weirdo? You could argue it's

:51:33. > :51:41.an alternative within an alternative. I get whole families

:51:42. > :51:44.coming along to the pantomime-ish atmosphere. Children don't know how

:51:45. > :51:50.to behave, they put their hand up and ask a question and I like that.

:51:51. > :51:55.Because of the approach you take, you can get families coming along

:51:56. > :52:01.and bring the kids? Yes. For a lot of stand-ups, you would have to

:52:02. > :52:05.think twice about that. The parents bring them as well, I don't know if

:52:06. > :52:10.that is good or bad. What are you doing these days? Taking my

:52:11. > :52:14.weirdness autumn tour all across Britain. Milton Jones is out there,

:52:15. > :52:20.that's the main show. In every big city in town? 60-odd dates to start

:52:21. > :52:32.with then a load more. Thank you for being with us.

:52:33. > :52:34.Now that's not your lot for tonight folks, Milton,

:52:35. > :52:37.Alan and Michael are off to Lou Lou's for Emmanuel Macron's

:52:38. > :52:41.He's invited the finest brains in Britain to assist.

:52:42. > :52:43.Which probably means you're wondering why these

:52:44. > :52:47.They're just helping out behind the bar, tasked with making sure

:52:48. > :52:53.For those of you not even up for a bit of bar work,

:52:54. > :52:56.we're staying right here to bring you an all-night two for the price

:52:57. > :52:59.of one political extravaganza, yes the results of the Stoke

:53:00. > :53:00.on Trent Central and Copeland by elections.

:53:01. > :53:04.As by-elections go, it doesn't get better than this.

:53:05. > :53:06.So, here's Adam Fleming on how we got to the night political

:53:07. > :53:08.anoraks have been dreaming of for years.

:53:09. > :53:10.First tonight, let's look at Stoke-on-Trent,

:53:11. > :53:13.where the people are picking a new MP after their previous

:53:14. > :53:14.member of Parliament resigned to run a museum.

:53:15. > :53:23.The thriller coaxes shape and beauty from the spinning mess of clay.

:53:24. > :53:25.The area is famous for crockery, but as the potteries shutdown,

:53:26. > :53:27.the Labour majority has started to look more fragile.

:53:28. > :53:30.Down from 16,000 in the 1950s, to 5000 at the last election,

:53:31. > :53:35.and 70% of voters here voted to leave the EU.

:53:36. > :53:38.Turning this by-election into a tussle between Ukip and Labour.

:53:39. > :53:48.The Ukip leader and their candidate found himself on the ropes over

:53:49. > :53:50.claims he made about Hillsborough and whether he lived

:53:51. > :53:57.Unfortunately, I think many feel they have been left behind

:53:58. > :54:01.I think what they need is a national voice,

:54:02. > :54:04.someone who can stand up in the House of Commons and be

:54:05. > :54:07.listened to, and I believe I am that man to put Stoke-on-Trent

:54:08. > :54:10.To make Ukip look opportunistic, the Labour candidate said

:54:11. > :54:14.I live just outside the city in a pit village called Silverdale.

:54:15. > :54:20.My daughter was born and I consider myself to be very local.

:54:21. > :54:24.Apologising for tweets deemed to be rude, sexist and insulting

:54:25. > :54:26.to supporters of Brexit. The Prime Minister popped

:54:27. > :54:32.in to do what the other Westminster parties did.

:54:33. > :54:34.Tried to stop it becoming a two horse race.

:54:35. > :54:38.Stoke voted overwhelmingly to leave the European Union and we must

:54:39. > :54:41.ensure that vote is reflected and Theresa May's clear

:54:42. > :54:44.plan to deliver Brexit will ensure that is a success.

:54:45. > :54:49.While everyone raced to be the biggest Brexiteer,

:54:50. > :54:54.We are only at the start of the Article 50 process

:54:55. > :54:57.and there is a long way to go and we are very clear

:54:58. > :55:00.we are standing up for those who want to remain in the single

:55:01. > :55:03.market, who want to protect jobs and investment in this country.

:55:04. > :55:06.Now I'll take a short three and a half hour drive north

:55:07. > :55:08.to the scenic constituency of Copeland on the edge

:55:09. > :55:10.of the Lake District, where things were going nuclear.

:55:11. > :55:12.It's home to the Sellafield reprocessing plant,

:55:13. > :55:14.where the previous Labour MP has gone to work.

:55:15. > :55:17.The Tory candidate found fame saving a local school,

:55:18. > :55:20.but her campaign also focused on Jeremy Corbyn's lukewarm

:55:21. > :55:25.Quite frankly, for Jeremy Corbyn to change his stance

:55:26. > :55:29.at a by-election, when we know he has campaigned for decades

:55:30. > :55:34.against nuclear, a leopard does not change its spots.

:55:35. > :55:38.The Prime Minister dropped in, too, sensing an historic opportunity

:55:39. > :55:41.for the government to gain a seat in a by-election.

:55:42. > :55:46.I think looking at Mitcham and Morden we are just

:55:47. > :55:51.Let's go over there and see if we are.

:55:52. > :55:55.Mitcham and Morden in 1982 was the last time.

:55:56. > :56:04.There the Conservative government won after a Labour MP defected

:56:05. > :56:09.Sadly, the BBC got the graphic wrong.

:56:10. > :56:11.Hopefully, that does not happen tonight.

:56:12. > :56:15.Back in Copeland, one party argued the whole nuclear

:56:16. > :56:20.I don't think it is the magic bullet everyone has been led to believe

:56:21. > :56:23.it is and if the nuclear industry had been so good for this area,

:56:24. > :56:26.then why are towns like Whitehaven, you know, why are there

:56:27. > :56:30.Why are people so hard up around here, and why

:56:31. > :56:33.Nonetheless, Labour found itself on the defensive in a seat

:56:34. > :56:41.I have spoken to thousands of people in this campaign and the first

:56:42. > :56:44.thing they talk to me about is always the NHS.

:56:45. > :56:48.They are really worried that critical services they need

:56:49. > :56:52.at really dire times in their life are going to be stripped out of this

:56:53. > :56:56.community and they, in essence, will not have a health service

:56:57. > :57:01.Tonight's tale of two constituencies will tell us a little more

:57:02. > :57:16.about the big issues in British politics.

:57:17. > :57:19.Welcome if you're joining us for what promises to be

:57:20. > :57:22.Not one, but two parliamentary by-elections to savour.

:57:23. > :57:24.The Tories and Labour are going head-to-head in Copeland,

:57:25. > :57:30.And Ukip's leader, Paul Nuttall, is making a concerted bid to wrest

:57:31. > :57:39.Stoke-on-Trent Central from Labour control.

:57:40. > :57:42.Both seats have been Labour bankers for years.

:57:43. > :57:47.With me for the duration, however long that may be,

:57:48. > :57:53.Conservative Cabinet Minister Matt Hancock.

:57:54. > :57:56.One of Ukip's men in the London Assembly, David Kurten.

:57:57. > :58:00.Representing their Lordships' House, Baroness Kath Pinnock

:58:01. > :58:10.And last but not least, the Shadow Cabinet's Barry Gardiner.

:58:11. > :58:19.Welcome, all of you. Thank you for being here. Barry Gardiner, we have

:58:20. > :58:28.two Labour seats up for grabs. It is highly unusual for the opposition to

:58:29. > :58:33.lose seats in by-elections to the government. The fact that it might

:58:34. > :58:38.speaks volumes for the state of your party. Look, it would be

:58:39. > :58:42.unprecedented since 1960, and I think we are acutely aware of that,

:58:43. > :58:49.but you are acutely aware also that what we have at the moment is a huge

:58:50. > :58:54.change in the whole of British politics as a result of Brexit. And

:58:55. > :59:02.I think it's impossible to consider these by-elections as being in

:59:03. > :59:07.normal times, in that sense. Why must you knock Brexit has changed

:59:08. > :59:11.the face of UK politics in a profound way. Those people who had

:59:12. > :59:18.traditional party loyalties, both in Matt's party and my own, for Matt,

:59:19. > :59:24.while most of his colleagues voted to remain, a substantial number

:59:25. > :59:31.voted to leave, yet only 44% of Conservative voters voted to remain.

:59:32. > :59:40.The rest voted to leave. In my party, 64% of voters voted to

:59:41. > :59:43.remain, but actually 66% of our constituency seats, 64% of our

:59:44. > :59:51.constituency seats were actually Leave seats. But how does this

:59:52. > :59:56.explain how you might lose Copeland? I'm not saying we are going to lose.

:59:57. > :00:00.I said you might, but how does this explain in opposition in the midterm

:00:01. > :00:06.of a government that has its own problems that would lose a seat like

:00:07. > :00:10.Copeland? You talk about the midterm of a government. We have a

:00:11. > :00:13.relatively new Prime Minister, albeit she was unelected, and she is

:00:14. > :00:24.still in her honeymoon period. You can paint this as a historic

:00:25. > :00:30.occasion, if we were to lose, but my point is that actually there are

:00:31. > :00:35.some exceptional circumstances. Do you buy any of that? Know, frankly.

:00:36. > :00:43.I think that Labour are in deep trouble. These are two strongholds

:00:44. > :00:48.for the Labour Party. They have held them for 50 odd years. They are the

:00:49. > :00:51.sort of seats that they could put people like Tristram Hunt, an

:00:52. > :00:58.obvious southerner, into a north Midlands seat and he won it with

:00:59. > :01:05.ease. So these should be easily won for Labour. Lets go up to Stoke,

:01:06. > :01:10.where the count is taking place in a sports hall. You can lay out all the

:01:11. > :01:15.tables in a space like that and do the counting on them. Very

:01:16. > :01:22.efficient. Gerard Batten is a member of the European Parliament for Ukip

:01:23. > :01:28.and he joins us from the count. Can you tell us, how is your party

:01:29. > :01:33.likely to fare tonight? Or this morning? It's a bit too early to

:01:34. > :01:36.say. It's definitely a two horse race between us and Labour and what

:01:37. > :01:40.I've been saying for the last couple of weeks is it is either going to be

:01:41. > :01:44.two thousandths and Labour or it's going to be a close result and it

:01:45. > :01:50.could go either way. -- 2000 to Labour. But the options you gave me,

:01:51. > :01:55.it's either a couple of thousand to Labour or a very close result, that

:01:56. > :02:02.doesn't sound that you are too confident that Paul Nuttall has

:02:03. > :02:07.pulled this off. It's a very difficult task, of course, to win a

:02:08. > :02:11.seat like this, which has been in Labour hands since 1950, I believe.

:02:12. > :02:15.To win a seat from another party which has that long established a

:02:16. > :02:21.record will always be difficult. Of course, we have seen two things in

:02:22. > :02:25.this election which have been pretty bad. The Labour Party have had

:02:26. > :02:30.absolutely nothing positive to say about itself but it has attacked

:02:31. > :02:34.Ukip on the line that we want to privatise the NHS, which isn't true,

:02:35. > :02:37.has never been true, and we have had that on the doorstep. The other

:02:38. > :02:42.thing has been be sustained character assassination via the

:02:43. > :02:46.media against Paul Nuttall, some elements of the media, which has

:02:47. > :02:52.also played on the doorstep. So the complaints about Mr Nuttall, is

:02:53. > :03:00.sometime vicarious relationship with the truth, that has cut through on

:03:01. > :03:06.the doorsteps of Stoke? No, it hasn't. Paul has explained this many

:03:07. > :03:10.times in the last couple of weeks. He was at Hillsborough, he was 12

:03:11. > :03:13.years old. His press officer put something up on the website that he

:03:14. > :03:18.didn't check properly and obviously over egged the pudding a bit. When

:03:19. > :03:22.he realised that had happened, you frankly admitted he had made a

:03:23. > :03:29.mistake and he apologised, but that is the extent of it. -- the frankly

:03:30. > :03:31.admitted. But it wasn't just Hillsborough. Although I think that

:03:32. > :03:37.this matter quite a lot of people. It was also his relationship with

:03:38. > :03:44.Tranmere Rovers, which wasn't quite what he had claimed it to be, and

:03:45. > :03:49.his so-called Ph.D., which was not a Ph.D. . It just created a sense that

:03:50. > :03:53.he had a lot of questions to answer, and I would suggest it got in the

:03:54. > :03:57.way of you getting your other messages across, that Mr Nuttall

:03:58. > :04:03.turned out to not be the candidate that you really needed to win Stoke.

:04:04. > :04:11.We have had elements of the media who don't want Ukip to win the work

:04:12. > :04:15.these things up to the extent that is far beyond their relevance or

:04:16. > :04:18.truths, and they have managed to get those things on the doorstep, so

:04:19. > :04:24.people like the Guardian and Channel 4 can be proud of themselves. They

:04:25. > :04:28.have done the damage they have done to Ukip, rather than reporting the

:04:29. > :04:33.election campaign itself and the issues that matter. Are you telling

:04:34. > :04:39.me that the Guardian and Channel 4 News are big in the backstreet

:04:40. > :04:42.terraces of Stoke? It gets into the mainstream media and is repeated on

:04:43. > :04:48.radio programmes. You are talking about it tonight. People have been

:04:49. > :04:53.voting on it, so we can't affect the results. People who don't read the

:04:54. > :05:00.Guardian can see the press reviews on Sky, for example. It seems from

:05:01. > :05:04.your demeanour and what you are saying that you are getting your

:05:05. > :05:10.excuses in first, aren't you must knock I didn't quite catch that. You

:05:11. > :05:13.are getting your excuses in now. From your demeanour and the way you

:05:14. > :05:19.are going on about the disadvantages Mr Nuttall faced, many of his own

:05:20. > :05:25.making, that it hasn't gone as well for you as you would have hoped. I

:05:26. > :05:29.have fought many by-election campaigns, general election

:05:30. > :05:35.campaigns, European election campaigns since I helped set Ukip up

:05:36. > :05:41.in 1993, and this has been about the dirtiest campaign I've ever seen.

:05:42. > :05:44.Aren't by-election is usually pretty dirty? Most by-election I have

:05:45. > :05:51.covered have been pretty dirty. That is what they are. Well, maybe you

:05:52. > :05:57.have seen more than I have, Andrew. I'd probably have. It's about the

:05:58. > :06:02.worst example I've seen. I've never experienced anything like this, in a

:06:03. > :06:07.general election or a by-election. Those of us who remember the

:06:08. > :06:13.Bermondsey by-election many years ago in London, we are really shocked

:06:14. > :06:17.by nothing these days. Let me ask you before we go, because we are

:06:18. > :06:22.grateful for your time, and I know it's difficult when the result is

:06:23. > :06:29.still on Claire. If you cannot win in Stoke, which Mr Nuttall called

:06:30. > :06:36.Brexit central, this was one of the Brexit constituencies, if you can't

:06:37. > :06:41.win there, where can you win? With all due respect to Stoke-on-Trent

:06:42. > :06:46.Central, it was number 72 on our target list, so I think we have done

:06:47. > :06:51.well however get on. In all be Ukip elections I have taken part in, if

:06:52. > :06:56.we win, it's called a flash in the pan, and if we lose, it's called the

:06:57. > :07:00.end of Ukip. The party has never been more united than it has in this

:07:01. > :07:05.campaign. We have had hundreds of people out. People have been solidly

:07:06. > :07:10.behind Paul, working for a win. This has brought the party together

:07:11. > :07:13.behind his leadership, so it is positive for us whatever the result.

:07:14. > :07:19.It is too early to call. We could be winning this. We won't know for an

:07:20. > :07:25.hour or two yet. We will be here until we get it. We will see how

:07:26. > :07:30.united Ukip remains when we get the result. Thank you for joining us. We

:07:31. > :07:36.may come back to you as the night goes on. Matt Hancock, your party

:07:37. > :07:44.tried very hard in Stoke, did it? We campaigned in step. Did you try

:07:45. > :07:49.hard? I think we did. I went to Copeland. You didn't go to Stoke?

:07:50. > :08:00.What is the name of your candidate in Stoke? It is... It is... I didn't

:08:01. > :08:05.meet him. It's Jack Lenox. I went and campaigned in Copeland. The

:08:06. > :08:12.Prime Minister went to both. We campaigned in both. Clearly, the

:08:13. > :08:16.central point... Of course you campaigned in both, it's a

:08:17. > :08:21.by-election. My point was, did you try very hard, or in fact did you

:08:22. > :08:24.not really poor the resources into Copeland, because that was the one

:08:25. > :08:30.that you hoped to win? There would be nothing stupid ever doing that,

:08:31. > :08:35.can we be honest? No, we campaigned in both. The Prime Minister going to

:08:36. > :08:40.both shows that we had a serious campaign in both. If we won either,

:08:41. > :08:44.it would be extraordinary. Well, that may be the case, and we were

:08:45. > :08:48.talking earlier about what a story it would be if Labour lost Copeland.

:08:49. > :08:51.But let's look at Stoke-on-Trent Central, in the heart of the

:08:52. > :08:58.potteries. This was the result in the general election. The turnout

:08:59. > :09:03.was only 51%, which is pretty low for a general election. Tristram

:09:04. > :09:09.Hunt was the Labour candidate, the sitting MP. He got 39%. As you can

:09:10. > :09:15.see, Ukip and the Conservatives were sort of nip and tuck. I think Ukip

:09:16. > :09:20.was marginally ahead. In our rounding up, they were both on 23%.

:09:21. > :09:29.Then a big drop down to independent, Lib Dems, and the Greens at 4%. When

:09:30. > :09:34.you look at that, it is interesting that, given that you were both, Matt

:09:35. > :09:38.Hancock, Ukip and the Conservatives, starting from the same base, if I

:09:39. > :09:43.can put it that way, that you still thought Copeland was a better bet.

:09:44. > :09:51.We are a party in government and you hardly ever get closer when you are

:09:52. > :09:58.in government. No, you tend to lose. You tend to lose your share of the

:09:59. > :10:02.vote, too, never mind seats. Yes, so it would be extraordinary if we won

:10:03. > :10:05.either. The fact that some people were talking about us having a

:10:06. > :10:09.chance to win either is extraordinary. It isn't only about

:10:10. > :10:13.the state of the Labour Party, as Barry was saying, but it's also

:10:14. > :10:17.about the fact that the government, on any of the major big picture

:10:18. > :10:22.issues, on the economy, safety, a plan for Brexit, or broader

:10:23. > :10:26.leadership, is incredibly strong compared to any of the alternatives.

:10:27. > :10:34.The fact that the government has got a plan and is working through it,

:10:35. > :10:37.and that it is strong on the economy and on the core issues, actually, I

:10:38. > :10:41.think there is an element here that is about government strength as

:10:42. > :10:49.well, of course, as the chaos in the Labour Party. Our next chart shows

:10:50. > :10:56.the decline of Labour Instagram sent -- in Stoke-on-Trent Central. Let's

:10:57. > :10:57.remind ourselves of the versions of the Stoke-on-Trent constituency.

:10:58. > :11:03.Constituency boundaries changed over the years. Getting back to the heart

:11:04. > :11:09.of this constituency, Labour has held this since 1935. They held it

:11:10. > :11:14.before then, too. It was only when they were in national government in

:11:15. > :11:17.the early 30s when they lost. It is basically deemed a Labour heartland

:11:18. > :11:24.seat, and has been for as long as people can remember. 1997, the year

:11:25. > :11:32.of Tony Blair's landslide victory against John Major, Labour got 66%.

:11:33. > :11:39.By 2001, another landslide victory for Mr Blair, the Labour share of

:11:40. > :11:43.the vote was down to 61%. By 2005, Labour won again, third election in

:11:44. > :11:51.a row, not so much by a landslide this time, but Labour's share of the

:11:52. > :11:57.vote down to 53%. In 2010, when Mr Hunt was elected, down to 39%, and

:11:58. > :12:03.he repeated 39 in 2015. Barry Gardiner, when you look at that

:12:04. > :12:05.chart, that is a kind of visual representation of the decline of

:12:06. > :12:11.Labour in one of its heartland seats. You are absolutely right, and

:12:12. > :12:17.I think you are also right to point out that there were significant

:12:18. > :12:23.boundary changes after 2005 which soared... So it is a bit hard to

:12:24. > :12:28.compare like with like, but it isn't a pleasing chart. Yes, and Stoke was

:12:29. > :12:33.an area of the country which really lost out in the way in which the

:12:34. > :12:39.whole of the loss of manufacturing industry took grip in the UK. I

:12:40. > :12:45.think it was one of those victims of globalisation, if you like. Why are

:12:46. > :12:50.they abandoning Labour, in that case? Would they go to Labour to

:12:51. > :12:59.protect them in a time of economic change? It also shows, and what

:13:00. > :13:04.those bar chart show particularly, it shows that the attempt to try and

:13:05. > :13:08.say that this is in some way about Jeremy Corbyn and the leadership is

:13:09. > :13:13.absolutely wrong. It's about a long-term change in the way in which

:13:14. > :13:18.British society is gone. Isn't that even more worrying for you, if it's

:13:19. > :13:23.not just Jeremy Corbyn? It's a systemic problem that you face. I

:13:24. > :13:28.think there is a real issue in the way in which the whole of politics

:13:29. > :13:32.in this country is working, and the way in which people feel, the loss

:13:33. > :13:37.of manufacturing, the imbalance there was in the economy, the way in

:13:38. > :13:40.which financial services and other service industries have dominated,

:13:41. > :13:45.and you can see that actually the way in which we respond to that as

:13:46. > :13:49.political parties, I think that we in the Labour Party have a lot of

:13:50. > :13:53.work to do to make sure that we have the proper response to that, but

:13:54. > :13:57.it's about equality and fairness, and about ensuring that those

:13:58. > :14:00.communities that are currently being left behind, like Stoke and

:14:01. > :14:06.Copeland, have people there arguing for them.

:14:07. > :14:14.The Labour Party is meant to be for people who were left behind, people

:14:15. > :14:19.who are suffering from major economic changes. It was about

:14:20. > :14:22.people who were on the wrong end of the Industrial Revolution. It was

:14:23. > :14:26.people who hadn't had a vote. It was people who were in slums, people who

:14:27. > :14:31.were being left behind by general prosperity, yet now the people being

:14:32. > :14:35.left behind don't turn to you. In fact what I was saying was it was

:14:36. > :14:40.the change in the decline in manufacturing industry and Labour of

:14:41. > :14:43.course is built on those workers in manufacturing industry, and as

:14:44. > :14:46.manufacturing declined, it's not surprising therefore that the Labour

:14:47. > :14:50.vote declined in the same way. You are right of course, Labour has

:14:51. > :14:54.always stuck up for those who are marginalised, for those in the slum

:14:55. > :14:59.housing, but actually increasingly we come into a much harsher society

:15:00. > :15:02.and I think it's difficult to get that voice and get that appreciated

:15:03. > :15:07.when people feel that they are on the receiving end of it. They don't

:15:08. > :15:12.feel as generous, sometimes. Let's go to Copeland, where we are joined

:15:13. > :15:17.by Kat Smith. She's an MP from the area, I think her constituency is

:15:18. > :15:20.adjacent to Copeland. She's in the Jeremy Corbyn Shadow Cabinet, she is

:15:21. > :15:24.live from the counting Copeland. We understand it's on a knife edge of

:15:25. > :15:30.Kat Smith. Are we any clear yet which way the knife is going to cut?

:15:31. > :15:36.Well, it's fair to say that it's looking very close here at Copeland,

:15:37. > :15:41.and I think that's a testament to the campaign that the Labour Party

:15:42. > :15:45.has run here, at a time when we are somewhere between 15 and 18 points

:15:46. > :15:48.behind in the polls, to be still waiting on the resulting Copeland

:15:49. > :15:52.and not sure which way it's going to fall is testament to the campaign we

:15:53. > :15:56.ran and tapping into the issues that people feel about very strongly

:15:57. > :16:01.around here, which is about the NHS and particularly about hospital

:16:02. > :16:06.services in West Cumbria. If it's on a night -- knife aids this is a

:16:07. > :16:09.Labour seat you are defending in a by-election in the middle of a

:16:10. > :16:15.Conservative government. It shouldn't be on a knife edge. You

:16:16. > :16:18.should be walking it? Andrew, I think it's fair to say that Copeland

:16:19. > :16:24.has never been a safe Labour seat. It's always been a marginal seat.

:16:25. > :16:28.It's always been a Labour seat. With boundary changes its become more

:16:29. > :16:33.marginal. We've never held Copeland with huge majorities. It's always

:16:34. > :16:36.been one of those seats which is made up of very different types of

:16:37. > :16:42.demographics. When did you last lose it? Where Labour has always held as

:16:43. > :16:45.far as I'm aware the seats of Copeland, it's never been by

:16:46. > :16:50.particularly huge majorities. It was considered to be one of our marginal

:16:51. > :16:54.seats and a key want to defend the last two general elections. At a

:16:55. > :16:57.time when the Labour Party isn't doing particularly well in the

:16:58. > :17:01.national polls, to be waiting to find out the result from Copeland,

:17:02. > :17:07.to me, suggests that the issues we've been talking about in this

:17:08. > :17:10.by-election campaign, issues around hospital services, issues actually

:17:11. > :17:17.about West Cumberland Hospital, which is about an hour's drive away

:17:18. > :17:22.from Carlisle, people having to travel. I understand that. Of

:17:23. > :17:27.course. It's something people feel strongly about in this part of the

:17:28. > :17:32.world. They may do, but we've yet to see if they feel strongly enough to

:17:33. > :17:37.keep your party in power. If this is nothing unusual, that Labour is on a

:17:38. > :17:40.knife edge here defending the in a by-election in the middle of a

:17:41. > :17:47.Conservative government, when did you last lose a by-election to a

:17:48. > :17:51.Conservative government? I think I'll let some political historian

:17:52. > :17:58.give you the answer to that one. All right, I'm not a historian, but I'll

:17:59. > :18:05.give you, it was 1960. I've lost the sound. It was 1960 that you last

:18:06. > :18:10.lost, and you only had a majority of 47 in that seat in 1960, and it came

:18:11. > :18:14.hard on the heels of the 1959 Conservative landslide election

:18:15. > :18:20.victory. The reason I raised that is to show how in modern times,

:18:21. > :18:26.unprecedented it would be for Labour to lose a seat like Copeland, and

:18:27. > :18:31.that rather the fact that at its on a knife edge is hardly a testament

:18:32. > :18:36.to your campaign, it's a testament to the state the Labour Party is in

:18:37. > :18:40.at the moment. Well, back in 2017, we've seen the Conservatives throw

:18:41. > :18:44.the kitchen sink at this by-election in terms of the resources they've

:18:45. > :18:50.put into Copeland. Given the national polling figures, Labour

:18:51. > :18:53.really, we shouldn't be in with a fighting chance if national polls

:18:54. > :18:57.were to be reflected locally, but the fact is we're still waiting for

:18:58. > :19:01.the result. We don't know what it's going to be. That's a testament to a

:19:02. > :19:05.really strong Labour campaign and people's strongly held beliefs about

:19:06. > :19:09.NHS services in West Cumbria. Despite the fact you think you've

:19:10. > :19:13.done a great campaign, sorry about your struggling with your MPs, it's

:19:14. > :19:22.happened to me too, it's so annoying at times but I'm grateful to you for

:19:23. > :19:24.persevering with it. If you hear me, I'll continue. Despite the fact you

:19:25. > :19:28.think the knife edge is a testament to your campaign and you are quite

:19:29. > :19:30.right to emphasise the importance particularly of this maternity

:19:31. > :19:37.Hospital, potential closure, driving up I think it's the A575 to

:19:38. > :19:41.Carlisle, it's not something you want to be doing if you're about to

:19:42. > :19:47.give birth, I understand big issues there, but if you don't win, even

:19:48. > :19:50.with all that, even with the NHS, State of, local issues of the NHS,

:19:51. > :19:57.what would that then say about the Labour Party? I'm not sure if I

:19:58. > :20:02.heard all of the question, but I think... It was quite long! What

:20:03. > :20:07.happens if Labour loses? We haven't got a result here yet and it's too

:20:08. > :20:12.early to speculate. OK, all right. Kat Smith, we'll leave it for now.

:20:13. > :20:16.Because as I can see, that earpiece is causing new real problems. I hope

:20:17. > :20:23.we can come back to you when we've sorted that out as the night goes

:20:24. > :20:32.on. Let's just look at the Copeland result, in the general election,

:20:33. > :20:37.that Labour won. 42% of the vote, they got, the turnout was 64%, a

:20:38. > :20:43.decent turnout that in a big rural constituency. Labour went into this

:20:44. > :20:47.by-election, Copeland is geographically the biggest

:20:48. > :20:53.constituency Labour has in England and it stretches, you see on our map

:20:54. > :20:55.their, from the coast of the north-east of England, into the Lake

:20:56. > :21:04.District. It's bigger than Copeland district itself, and Labour took it

:21:05. > :21:08.with 42% of the vote, Jamie Read the candidate, the Conservatives came

:21:09. > :21:14.second with 36%, the Lib Dems way down on 16, that says Labour there

:21:15. > :21:20.but it must be a different, actually, I'm not sure what Labour

:21:21. > :21:25.at 3%, anyway, it's 3% so we don't need to detain ourselves too much!

:21:26. > :21:32.The Labour majority, 2500. It is a decent majority in 2015. They were

:21:33. > :21:32.defending. Not a huge majority, but for

:21:33. > :21:36.decent majority in 2015. They were defending. Not a huge majority, but

:21:37. > :21:39.for a Labour opposition in a by-election, in the middle of the

:21:40. > :21:42.Conservative government, it's the kind of majority that in years gone

:21:43. > :21:47.by Labour would not only have no problem defending, but actually,

:21:48. > :21:54.would almost certainly as a share of the vote increased their share of

:21:55. > :21:58.the vote, and yet now we have it on a knife edge. Kat Smith said that

:21:59. > :22:06.Copeland has always been tight, it's always been close. In 1997, Labour

:22:07. > :22:11.won 58% of the voting Copeland. The idea this is somehow an Uber

:22:12. > :22:16.marginal... I agree, it's not an Uber marginal. But 97 wasn't

:22:17. > :22:23.exceptional. Your party was destroyed. We haven't won this seat

:22:24. > :22:27.since 1935. No, you haven't. Actually, you haven't won it since

:22:28. > :22:32.1951, and that was only because of the national government, Labour was

:22:33. > :22:36.down to a rump of about 50 seats in that election. We only need to go

:22:37. > :22:42.back in time that far, if we are still on at 5am at this stage. Let

:22:43. > :22:45.me just show you, interesting, because Barry Gardiner was

:22:46. > :22:48.mentioning earlier on about how Brexit, in some ways seems to be

:22:49. > :22:52.changing the nature of British politics and changing voters'

:22:53. > :22:55.relationship with the political parties and it's an interesting

:22:56. > :23:00.thought. Let's look at Copeland there. Both the seats up tonight

:23:01. > :23:05.were Leave seats, one in the Midlands, the other in the

:23:06. > :23:10.north-west of inward. Copeland voted 60% to Leave, Remain 40%, these are

:23:11. > :23:13.estimates because we didn't vote by constituency in the referendum or

:23:14. > :23:16.count, but these are pretty good estimates that have been worked on.

:23:17. > :23:27.Stoke-on-Trent Central, even more Brexit. Wipe Paul Nuttall called it

:23:28. > :23:32.Brexit Central, Leave 65%, Remain only 35%. So two pretty strong

:23:33. > :23:37.Brexit seats, and of course in Stoke-on-Trent, Labour chose a

:23:38. > :23:41.Remain, a pro-remain candidate, although he did say if he'd been in

:23:42. > :23:46.the House he'd have voted for Article 50. David Kurten, Ukip, if I

:23:47. > :23:51.can bring you in, looking at Stoke Central, you had a lot going for

:23:52. > :23:58.user. A constituency that voted 65% to leave on your key issue. Yes,

:23:59. > :24:02.absolutely, politics has changed since Brexit and it's a big issue.

:24:03. > :24:06.We are seeing lots of enthusiasm on the doors and to date, people who

:24:07. > :24:11.have been in the polling stations say there's been a lot of enthusiasm

:24:12. > :24:15.for people who were voting for Ukip, whereas the turnout has been quite

:24:16. > :24:20.low. Labour hasn't been able to get out so many people that voted for

:24:21. > :24:23.them in the past. No, but by-election is always have low

:24:24. > :24:28.turnout and enthusiasm would you do you any good if you don't win. We

:24:29. > :24:31.are still hoping we will win and the results aren't in yet. We will have

:24:32. > :24:37.to see in a couple of hours' time. My point is there was a confluence

:24:38. > :24:43.of events, which gave you a great opportunity. This was, as we've seen

:24:44. > :24:48.from the charts there, a substantial Leave seat. It's a by-election

:24:49. > :24:53.caused by a Labour MP resigning, a Labour MP resigning to go and work

:24:54. > :24:59.in a very big, posh, extravagant museum in South Kensington. Causing

:25:00. > :25:05.a by-election that the people of Stoke didn't really think needed to

:25:06. > :25:12.be caused, they'd only just re-voted him in as their MP. People don't

:25:13. > :25:16.like when by-elections are called to suit the politicians' convenience,

:25:17. > :25:20.so you had that going for you, you had the Tories thinking Copeland is

:25:21. > :25:24.a better bet for us, so we will put more resources in there. You add up

:25:25. > :25:30.these things and you picked Paul Nuttall, your new leader, he's a

:25:31. > :25:32.northerner himself, he's anti-metropolitan, and to the

:25:33. > :25:36.liberal consensus. You had a confluence of events, I would

:25:37. > :25:41.suggest, that meant this should have been a seat that you should have

:25:42. > :25:47.won. Well, we still can win and the votes being counted. You showed the

:25:48. > :25:51.graphic a few minutes ago of Labour's vote going down and down

:25:52. > :25:56.and down over the years and whatever happens tonight, that vote will go

:25:57. > :26:00.down again for Labour. It just shows the Metropolitan part of Labour are

:26:01. > :26:04.very much out of touch with the ordinary people who live in areas

:26:05. > :26:10.like Stoke. If they still win the love that matters to you. That's

:26:11. > :26:15.hypothetical. May not be for very long. We go back to Copeland. This

:26:16. > :26:20.looks like the one that is really on a knife edge because we've got the

:26:21. > :26:24.independent mayor of Copeland, Mike Starkie. Because you are an

:26:25. > :26:27.Independent, we're going to treat you not just as the Independent

:26:28. > :26:33.mayor, we're going to deputise you as one of our correspondence for

:26:34. > :26:40.tonight. Let me ask you, as the independent mayor, what's your

:26:41. > :26:45.feeling? A knife edge? As I asked before, which way is it going? It's

:26:46. > :26:50.very, very close. When the final result comes in its going to be down

:26:51. > :26:53.to hundreds rather than thousands. Over the course of the night, I

:26:54. > :26:57.think talking to people around the hall, the Conservatives seem to be

:26:58. > :27:03.growing a bit in confidence, so maybe that gives an indication it's

:27:04. > :27:08.tipping their way, but albeit very slightly. Was this a well fought

:27:09. > :27:13.campaign by the two main parties that were in the running to win

:27:14. > :27:21.here? Did it grabs the people of Copeland? Well, the turnout, 51%, is

:27:22. > :27:24.quite good for a by-election, when you look at some of the by-elections

:27:25. > :27:28.round the country in recent years. We are bit down on what the vote was

:27:29. > :27:34.in the general election, back in 2015. But as I said, for a

:27:35. > :27:38.by-election to get over 50% turnout, I'm led to believe that's a pretty

:27:39. > :27:44.good turnout. So it's obviously got the interest of a good number of the

:27:45. > :27:48.people of the borough. This has been, as we've been saying, a Labour

:27:49. > :27:53.seat for as long as anybody can remember. If Labour were to lose it

:27:54. > :27:58.in a by-election, under a Conservative government, that would

:27:59. > :28:04.surprise you, I would suggest, would it not?

:28:05. > :28:11.I think it would be a catastrophic result for Labour to lose Copeland.

:28:12. > :28:15.They have held the seat that 82 years. I doubt anyone alive can

:28:16. > :28:22.remember anything other than a Labour MP here. Even the result

:28:23. > :28:27.coming in close in Labour's Faber is way down on what you would expect.

:28:28. > :28:34.Thank you for joining us from the count in Whitehaven, the coastal

:28:35. > :28:37.town of Whitehaven, the biggest town, I think, in your constituency.

:28:38. > :28:42.Thank you for joining us. We will see if it proves right. The

:28:43. > :28:46.independent mayor saying that he thinks the Tories might just have

:28:47. > :28:50.clinched it, but we don't know. Who is smiling more than others? We

:28:51. > :28:57.haven't got a clue. Hundreds of votes could be in it, the mayor

:28:58. > :29:02.said. I hate to say this, because my heart could sink at the thought, but

:29:03. > :29:06.there could be a recount if there is that vote, which would cheer up my

:29:07. > :29:13.panel no end! Let's go to the end -- to the man we always depend on John

:29:14. > :29:18.Curtice, professor of politics at the university of Strathclyde. He is

:29:19. > :29:24.a few hundred yards away in our Westminster newsroom. What are your

:29:25. > :29:28.thoughts about these two constituencies? Let's talk about

:29:29. > :29:32.Copeland. The truth is they have only been three occasions, three

:29:33. > :29:37.by-elections since 1945 in which the principal opposition party has lost

:29:38. > :29:43.a by-election to the government. The last one was in mid-June and Morden

:29:44. > :29:46.in 1982. That was a special circumstance, a sitting Labour MP,

:29:47. > :29:52.Bruce Douglas, defected to the FTP and insisted on resigning his seat

:29:53. > :29:59.and defending it as an SDP candidate, and the boat was split.

:30:00. > :30:03.Before that, you have to go back to Brighouse in 1960, Sunderland south

:30:04. > :30:11.in 1953, and in both cases, the Labour majority was wafer thin. 51%

:30:12. > :30:15.share in one case, 53 in the other. In Copeland, Labour are starting 6.5

:30:16. > :30:20.points behind. If I stress that, if the Labour Party have lost Copeland,

:30:21. > :30:25.it will count arithmetically as the worst defeat for an opposition at

:30:26. > :30:30.the hands of the government in any by-election since 1945. One would

:30:31. > :30:34.simply have to say that this is in line with the evidence of the

:30:35. > :30:39.opinion polls, with Labour running at about 26% in the national opinion

:30:40. > :30:44.polls, and the only time since 1945 they had been in a worse position

:30:45. > :30:49.was during the darkest days of Gordon Brown's administration in the

:30:50. > :30:55.wake of the MPs' expense scandal, so it would be further indication of

:30:56. > :30:57.how weak Labour's position is. Over the last couple of weeks, the

:30:58. > :31:04.tension has been rather more on Stoke and whether Ukip could win it.

:31:05. > :31:08.The truth that we should bear in mind is that Stoke was always the

:31:09. > :31:13.saviour of the seats. And I think perhaps Ukip, in claiming they are

:31:14. > :31:16.going to go for the Labour vote in the north of England, are rather

:31:17. > :31:24.misleading where that opportunity actually lies in the wake of the

:31:25. > :31:27.Brexit vote. If you look at the opinion polls, unsurprisingly,

:31:28. > :31:32.hardly anybody who voted for Remain is voting for Ukip. And all their

:31:33. > :31:38.supporters are coming from that half of the electorate that voted to

:31:39. > :31:43.leave. You ask yourself, of the two parties, Conservative and Labour,

:31:44. > :31:48.which of the two had more Leave voters, even in Labour held

:31:49. > :31:51.constituencies in the north and Midlands? The answer to that

:31:52. > :31:55.question is not Labour but the Conservatives. I think the truth is

:31:56. > :32:02.that Ukip, in trying to go for the Labour vote, yes, they have already

:32:03. > :32:06.clearly got the decline of Labour vote in Stoke, and Ukip have so far

:32:07. > :32:11.done well by winning over a certain section of the ex-Labour vote, but I

:32:12. > :32:15.think they now need to realise that, given the nature of the Labour vote

:32:16. > :32:20.now, actually their target should be the Conservatives, not Labour,

:32:21. > :32:26.because it is the Conservatives who at the moment have the support in

:32:27. > :32:31.the polls of Leave voters. We hear that we may not be far from a result

:32:32. > :32:35.at Stoke-on-Trent Central, because the turnout was quite low, and it's

:32:36. > :32:40.a smaller constituency and Copeland. We can see the counting going on.

:32:41. > :32:44.Quite a lot of them look like they have finished counting, sitting

:32:45. > :32:48.there with their bundles of ballots neatly piled in front of them,

:32:49. > :32:53.looking satisfied with a job well done, patiently waiting on a few. I

:32:54. > :32:59.think nearly all the votes have been counted. What is happening there is

:33:00. > :33:05.that they are looking at some contested ballot papers, some ballot

:33:06. > :33:10.papers that the adjudicator will have to decide which way they should

:33:11. > :33:14.be counted, or not. And, if they are, which party should get them. I

:33:15. > :33:21.think we are down to the final stretch there. I think we have got

:33:22. > :33:29.Labour's Jack Dromey in Stoke. Just a quick process question, it looks

:33:30. > :33:33.like we are not far from a result? Yes, I think that's right. The count

:33:34. > :33:42.has been going on for some hours. It remains tough and tight. It's a

:33:43. > :33:46.3-way marginal. But I think we are right to be increasingly optimistic

:33:47. > :33:50.about the likely outcome. Doesn't it worry you that, even if you hold

:33:51. > :33:55.onto it, but it has been a lot more of a contest than it really should

:33:56. > :34:02.have been for a Labour Party in opposition, under a Conservative

:34:03. > :34:06.government? It doesn't worry me at all, because this was a defining

:34:07. > :34:10.moment. It was either the moment that Ukip broke through in Labour's

:34:11. > :34:17.northern heartland or it was the moment that the tide was turned on

:34:18. > :34:21.Ukip. When Paul Nuttall run for leadership of Ukip, he said, vote

:34:22. > :34:25.for me and I will break Labour in its heartland. Well, I think the

:34:26. > :34:30.outcome of tonight will be not that Labour is broken but that Paul

:34:31. > :34:35.Nuttall and Ukip is broken. Only last week, Nigel Farage said that

:34:36. > :34:40.winning in Stoke, talking about turning Stoke into the Ukip capital

:34:41. > :34:47.of Britain. Nigel Farage said, this is fundamental to Ukip. Well, if we

:34:48. > :34:51.win tonight, Ukip have some profound questions to answer, because they

:34:52. > :34:55.have been thoroughly discredited in this campaign. We have fought a

:34:56. > :35:02.good, positive, local campaign. In Paul Nuttall, you have a man who

:35:03. > :35:05.simply wants to stop off in Stoke on his road to Westminster, using the

:35:06. > :35:09.city, and it became increasingly clear throughout that the campaign

:35:10. > :35:17.that the man had a loose sense the truth. But if you have a tough fight

:35:18. > :35:23.to win Stoke in a by-election, where would you have a tough fight? We

:35:24. > :35:28.have much to do to rebuild, to regain the trust and confidence of

:35:29. > :35:32.the British people, but there is a simple reality arising out of Stoke.

:35:33. > :35:36.Paul Nuttall said that we are now the party of the working class, of

:35:37. > :35:41.working people. Labour is, has always been and always will be the

:35:42. > :35:46.party of working people. So, ultimately, if we win tonight, it is

:35:47. > :35:50.the good people of Stoke rejecting the fundamental nature of Ukip,

:35:51. > :35:57.which would seek to divide and to peddle hatred for their own party

:35:58. > :36:04.political advantage. But your share of the vote has been in steady

:36:05. > :36:08.decline since 1997, in a state -- a seat like Stoke, a Labour heartland

:36:09. > :36:14.seat. If it is lower than 39% tonight, this morning, it will be in

:36:15. > :36:19.further decline as well. How can that give you any comfort, if your

:36:20. > :36:25.vote is declining in a seat like Stoke-on-Trent Central? Tonight, we

:36:26. > :36:31.turned the tide, Andrew. But we have much to do. Of that there is no

:36:32. > :36:36.doubt, to regain trust and confidence. I understand the sense

:36:37. > :36:41.of grievance in Stoke. I first came to Stoke the best part of 35 years

:36:42. > :36:45.ago in the trade union movement. Then, you could walk out of a good

:36:46. > :36:49.job in a factory on Friday morning and walk into another one on Monday.

:36:50. > :36:56.Now the world of work is much more insecure. Wages in Stoke are beneath

:36:57. > :37:00.the national average. So I understand those discontents, and

:37:01. > :37:04.what we have to do is effectively voice those at the next stages, but

:37:05. > :37:09.what was so good about our contain what we did precisely that. It was a

:37:10. > :37:12.local campaign, rooted in the concerns of the people Stoke,

:37:13. > :37:19.arguing there was a choice between taking somebody who simply wanted to

:37:20. > :37:26.use Stoke to Westminster or sending somebody who is of Stoke and will

:37:27. > :37:29.stand up for Stoke. Well, he is actually from Suffolk, the

:37:30. > :37:36.candidate, so I wouldn't overdo the Stoke element. He is not a native

:37:37. > :37:42.son of Stoke. He has made his life here. He has married here and is

:37:43. > :37:49.bringing up his kid here. He is a man who eats, sleeps and freeze

:37:50. > :37:52.Stoke, somebody who will stand up for Stoke in circumstances where, as

:37:53. > :37:58.came out strongly in the by-election campaign, there is this feeling in

:37:59. > :38:03.Stoke, which I sympathise with, that Westminster is 1000 miles away. They

:38:04. > :38:06.are squeezed between Greater Manchester in the north and

:38:07. > :38:10.Birmingham in the south. They want Stoke to be put on the map by

:38:11. > :38:15.somebody who is off them and will stand up for them, and that is what

:38:16. > :38:18.I believe will happen tonight. Did Mr Blair's intervention on the

:38:19. > :38:27.Brexit debate, or Peter Mandelson saying, that the thinks his main

:38:28. > :38:32.mission in life now is to do down Jeremy Corbyn? Did that do any

:38:33. > :38:36.damage? We were monitoring throughout impact on how people

:38:37. > :38:40.felt. Be straight answer is no. What was felt on the doorstep, and we

:38:41. > :38:48.were getting these reports every day, was both support for our

:38:49. > :38:50.campaign, the hospital facing 100,000 million pounds deficit, the

:38:51. > :38:55.children centre threatened with closure by a Conservative- Ukip

:38:56. > :39:02.council, and a strong position saying that Brexit will happen, we

:39:03. > :39:08.will leave the European union, let's see who is best for Stoke. We stood

:39:09. > :39:13.up for national security in Stoke. This is a city with a defence

:39:14. > :39:20.culture. Jordan Robertson came here and said, Labour founded Nato. We

:39:21. > :39:23.have never needed Nato more than in a dangerous and uncertain world. Did

:39:24. > :39:32.your leader say that during the by-election campaign? Did Mr Corbyn

:39:33. > :39:38.say that? It was our candidate in a very good local campaign that stood

:39:39. > :39:41.up for that defence culture in Stoke, with its defence

:39:42. > :39:47.manufacturing and recruiting ground for the Army. Just one other thing,

:39:48. > :39:53.what we also did was to recognise that sense of Englishness in Stoke,

:39:54. > :39:56.that pride in Stoke pride in country, and what we are not going

:39:57. > :40:04.to do is to cede the ground of a truism to the right. -- the ground

:40:05. > :40:07.of patriotism. For too long, people like Paul Nuttall have sought to

:40:08. > :40:11.exploit that for their own advantage. We have seen a highly

:40:12. > :40:16.effective local campaign, rooted in the realities and concerns of the

:40:17. > :40:20.people of Stoke. I believe, if we win tonight, it will be a defining

:40:21. > :40:25.moment, of that there is no doubt. The stakes could not have been

:40:26. > :40:30.higher. Now Ukip will have to reflect on where they go. I know

:40:31. > :40:36.where we are going. Sending an excellent mental Westminster. David

:40:37. > :40:41.Kurten has been listening. Best an excellent man to Westminster. What

:40:42. > :40:45.do you think of what he said? It doesn't sound any Labour man I have

:40:46. > :40:50.heard from in the last couple of years. Saying he is the patriotic

:40:51. > :40:54.working class, you have such a divide in Labour between the

:40:55. > :40:58.metropolitan elite, the inhabitants of the Westminster bubble, and those

:40:59. > :41:02.outside who voted for Brexit. You have a candidate here you'll called

:41:03. > :41:12.Brexit a pile of excrement. I would the exact word. Best I want. Talking

:41:13. > :41:16.about Ukip being associated with hatred is ridiculous. Our party,

:41:17. > :41:20.obviously we want to come out of the European Union, and that is because

:41:21. > :41:26.we want the money we spent on bureaucrats spent in this country on

:41:27. > :41:31.the NHS. We don't want to go ahead with a chest to, for example. Want

:41:32. > :41:35.to spend that on front line services, education, health, the

:41:36. > :41:41.police and force and things people need. -- we don't want to go ahead

:41:42. > :41:46.with High Speed 2. We see here that negativity, trying to smear the

:41:47. > :41:52.opposition. He talks about his own campaign being positive, but we see

:41:53. > :41:56.here in everything that he said a very negative campaign. His attitude

:41:57. > :42:02.is quite negative. You reported Jordan Robertson, and by the way,

:42:03. > :42:13.can interrupts, because Paul Nuttall is arriving at account. By the way,

:42:14. > :42:18.he hasn't been around Stoke much. I got that, Jack Dromey. I wanted ask

:42:19. > :42:25.you a question, talking about George Robinson, we have never needed Nato

:42:26. > :42:27.more, him being a former Nato Secretary-General, so it's not

:42:28. > :42:36.surprising he is saying that. Has Jeremy Corbyn ever said, we have

:42:37. > :42:42.never needed Nato more? The policy of the Labour Party is to support

:42:43. > :42:47.Nato, because Nato is necessary to the defence of national security,

:42:48. > :42:53.not just of the British people but of continental Europe. But has

:42:54. > :42:57.Jeremy Corbyn ever said that? Powers was a united campaign with everybody

:42:58. > :43:05.behind it. -- powers was. But has Jeremy Corbyn ever said that Nato

:43:06. > :43:12.has never been needed more? Look, we are a united party. That is not what

:43:13. > :43:18.I am asking you. At all levels, there has been support from Jeremy

:43:19. > :43:23.Douglas for everything we have said in Stoke. What we are saying is

:43:24. > :43:30.where labour stands. But you can't tell me if your leader has ever said

:43:31. > :43:34.that he supports Nato and believes that Nato has ever been more

:43:35. > :43:41.necessary. Can you tell me when he said that? It is the policy of the

:43:42. > :43:48.Labour Party, of which he is leader, to support Nato. Has he ever said

:43:49. > :43:52.it? Andrew, with the greatest of respect, we can twist and turn on

:43:53. > :43:57.this. It's a simple question, as your leader ever said he supports

:43:58. > :44:03.Nato and it has never been more important? It's a simple question. I

:44:04. > :44:08.have given you my answer, from Jeremy Douglas, everything we have

:44:09. > :44:17.said in Stoke is said by a united party. -- from Jeremy downwards.

:44:18. > :44:24.We thank you, we are getting close to a result. Our viewers will make

:44:25. > :44:29.up their minds on how you answer that as the view was always do. I

:44:30. > :44:33.just need to go straight back to Copeland now, to Andrew Stevenson

:44:34. > :44:38.MP. Conservative MP. He's in the counting Copeland. Mr Stevenson, can

:44:39. > :44:44.you bring is up-to-date on what we are all calling a knife edge? It's

:44:45. > :44:50.still very early here. We are now properly into the count and the

:44:51. > :44:53.ballots are being separated. It's looking close. But I can't tell you

:44:54. > :45:00.who is ahead at this current time. So you are not sure if you have won

:45:01. > :45:05.or not? We are not sure, but the fact that this is close in a seat

:45:06. > :45:09.that the Labour Party have held for over 80 years, against the governing

:45:10. > :45:14.party which of course governing parties don't gain in by-elections.

:45:15. > :45:18.The last time was 1982. It's a humiliation for Jeremy Corbyn. Yes,

:45:19. > :45:24.do you thing we are in recount territory? It's too early to say who

:45:25. > :45:29.is ahead of who's going to come out of this at the end of the night, but

:45:30. > :45:33.it is clear that there are some worried Labour faces at this count.

:45:34. > :45:38.If you don't win, it would be a bit disappointing for you. As John

:45:39. > :45:45.Curtice was explaining, it's historically would be a huge event

:45:46. > :45:49.if you were to win, but given that you did think you were a ring with a

:45:50. > :45:52.chance in and new new -- in unusual circumstances, given the resources

:45:53. > :45:57.you put into it, you had a strong candidate, you had the nuclear issue

:45:58. > :46:01.on your side as well, the Prime Minister visited. It would, in the

:46:02. > :46:08.end, be a bit of a disappointment for you now, wouldn't it? I think we

:46:09. > :46:12.do have an exceptional candidate, Trudy Harrison. She's fought a

:46:13. > :46:16.really positive and upbeat campaign hearing Copeland and we fought for

:46:17. > :46:19.every vote. The Prime Minister did visited, Jeremy Corbyn visited three

:46:20. > :46:22.times and said the Labour Party would hold and other members of the

:46:23. > :46:26.Shadow Cabinet said the Labour Party would increase their majority here.

:46:27. > :46:29.It's too early to say, but it doesn't look like Labour has

:46:30. > :46:35.increased their majority. You are seeing a safe Labour seat on the

:46:36. > :46:37.verge of potentially changing hands. All right, suitably cautious, Andrew

:46:38. > :46:43.Stephenson Wilson we shall wait and see. Thank you from joining us from

:46:44. > :46:46.the Whitehaven sports centre, whether counties. Matt Hancock, the

:46:47. > :46:50.Prime Minister did visit Copeland, but I'm not sure she did your

:46:51. > :46:53.candidate any favours. She was unable to give any guarantees on

:46:54. > :46:57.this threat and maternity hospital and she was unable to give any

:46:58. > :47:02.guarantees on whether the new new nuclear power station would go

:47:03. > :47:07.ahead. She went and supported, Trudy Harrison was a brilliant candidate.

:47:08. > :47:12.I really hope for her sake. Stick with my question. The Prime Minister

:47:13. > :47:17.went, it's clear that position on the NHS was very clear. She wasn't

:47:18. > :47:20.clear on the maternity hospital. The position is very clear, which is

:47:21. > :47:26.there is a locally led review and it's right that it's clinically led

:47:27. > :47:30.and just because there's a by-election on you can't then have a

:47:31. > :47:35.political in possession of a result. What we did find... So she couldn't

:47:36. > :47:38.give clarification. What we found out was Trudy Harrison was

:47:39. > :47:44.campaigning incredibly hard and taking the issue right to the Prime

:47:45. > :47:47.Minister. And on the other issue, because there are plans to build a

:47:48. > :47:50.proposal to build a new nuclear power station, indeed I think three

:47:51. > :47:55.is the long-term plan to build there, and of course Sellafield is

:47:56. > :48:00.there. It's an important nuclear power, it is a major employer, an

:48:01. > :48:04.employer of well-paid jobs as well, she was not able to clarify if that

:48:05. > :48:10.was going to go ahead either. What did she do to your campaign? The --

:48:11. > :48:15.development at Moorside is important and we are working hard to land

:48:16. > :48:20.that, but of course it's early stages in landing that deal.

:48:21. > :48:26.Toshiba, who were going to build it, so they can't afford it now. Last

:48:27. > :48:32.week they put out a clarity kind statement, but you are right, the

:48:33. > :48:37.nuclear issue they said they are continuing to work on the deal.

:48:38. > :48:44.Whatever the situation with that. Uncertainty, we can describe it as.

:48:45. > :48:48.Our candidates, Trudy, her husband works at Sellafield, she was very

:48:49. > :48:53.strong on the nuclear issue and it's an incredibly important issue. All

:48:54. > :48:57.right, are you feeling a bit left out, the Lib Dems here! Quite often

:48:58. > :49:04.by-elections are the Lib Dems are the story, as they were in Richmond.

:49:05. > :49:08.You won a by-election tonight, quite a spectacular results, in local

:49:09. > :49:12.government. But you are nowhere here, are you? It's not territory

:49:13. > :49:18.for us. You saw from the result that you showed from last time that we

:49:19. > :49:24.are going to come from a fairly low base. Very low you could call it.

:49:25. > :49:26.I'm confident we will increase from that and as you say we are doing

:49:27. > :49:32.really well in local elections tonight. From not standing last

:49:33. > :49:38.time, we got 54 ascent of the vote from the Tories and in Devon and

:49:39. > :49:42.Kettering. Brilliant. Why are you doing so well in local government

:49:43. > :49:48.by-elections, but not seeming to move much in the national polls?

:49:49. > :49:53.Because we had such loss of credibility in 2015, so we've got to

:49:54. > :50:01.gradually build that back up again, which we are doing. 33 net gains.

:50:02. > :50:08.I'm not arguing, not just good result, very good results. I've got

:50:09. > :50:15.you that, it's the national poll I was asking about. Liberal Democrats

:50:16. > :50:20.have always built from the bottom up and just watch this space. I'd like

:50:21. > :50:25.to pick up on one point. Very briefly. That Jack Dromey made. He

:50:26. > :50:30.was arguing a Labour victory in Stoke would be some kind of triumph.

:50:31. > :50:36.In every election from the 50s, to 2005, Labour have got over 50% of

:50:37. > :50:39.the vote in Stoke. This idea that a Labour victory and Stoke is some

:50:40. > :50:44.kind of triumph for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party is for the

:50:45. > :50:47.birds. It would be a relief, I would suggest was yellow it's

:50:48. > :50:52.extraordinary that it's even... Let's go back to Stoke, we are near

:50:53. > :50:57.the result. Chris Mason is there, bring us up to date. I think we are

:50:58. > :51:01.edging towards a result. Never a sentence I liked it out loud for the

:51:02. > :51:05.obvious consequences I'll probably be wrong and it will be an hour and

:51:06. > :51:13.a half away or whatever. But the main candidates are here. Gareth

:51:14. > :51:19.Snell for Labour, Paul Nuttall for Ukip arriving in the last 15 or 20

:51:20. > :51:25.minutes and it looked I think like a man who thinks he's going to lose.

:51:26. > :51:29.The mood music coming out of Ukip sources here, throughout the

:51:30. > :51:32.evening, has been on the heavy expectation management side, so

:51:33. > :51:35.they've been talking about what they see as the drawbacks of the first

:51:36. > :51:40.past the post system. They've been talking, and I haven't heard this

:51:41. > :51:43.before from them during the campaign, but they suddenly started

:51:44. > :51:49.referring to the fact that Stoke-on-Trent Central was 74th 75th

:51:50. > :51:58.on their list of target seats in 2015, which they were not saying

:51:59. > :52:03.until this evening. -- Labour talking about how important it would

:52:04. > :52:07.be to be Ukip, but they've help this seat since 1950 and on tweaked

:52:08. > :52:11.boundaries since 1935, so even if there was a certain element of

:52:12. > :52:15.surprise if Labour hold onto this seat, historically it should not be

:52:16. > :52:20.surprising at all. The more I spoke to Jack Dromey there, the more he

:52:21. > :52:25.talked, the more it was clear that he thinks they've won. He thinks

:52:26. > :52:29.Labour have won. I think that was clear, from everything he said. Yes,

:52:30. > :52:33.absolutely. He said to me earlier on that he was cautiously optimistic,

:52:34. > :52:38.which it usually political code for having won and won fairly

:52:39. > :52:41.comfortable. One source said Labour could win very comfortably indeed.

:52:42. > :52:45.Throughout the night the mood music from Labour has been one of victory.

:52:46. > :52:55.The mood music from Ukip has been one of defeat and there hasn't been

:52:56. > :52:58.a shift in that since the polls closed at 10pm. I think we are

:52:59. > :53:00.heading vaguely in the direction of declaration, because Paul Nuttall

:53:01. > :53:02.and Ukip were making the argument earlier in the evening that he

:53:03. > :53:05.wouldn't roll up here until there was roughly half an hour to go. So

:53:06. > :53:09.maybe, just maybe, we might be less than half an hour away from the

:53:10. > :53:13.result. If Labour has won reasonably comfortably, put it another way, if

:53:14. > :53:16.Ukip has performed reasonably badly, it would suggest there could be

:53:17. > :53:22.blood on the Ukip floor by tomorrow morning. Yes, I was chatting to Paul

:53:23. > :53:27.Oakden, the chairman of Ukip and making that exact point, because

:53:28. > :53:31.what is really striking is that Paul Nuttall, last summer, it seems an

:53:32. > :53:34.eternity ago at this, but Paul Nuttall last summer ruled himself

:53:35. > :53:37.out of running for the Ukip leadership because he said he'd seen

:53:38. > :53:42.the toll it had taken on Nigel Farage and he didn't want to inflict

:53:43. > :53:46.that level of scrutiny and pressure 24 hours a day, seven days a week,

:53:47. > :53:51.on him and his family. And of course, what happened, a few months

:53:52. > :53:54.later, after one of Ukip's blasts of internal turbulence, there he was as

:53:55. > :53:58.party leader and exactly what he predicted what happened has

:53:59. > :54:02.happened. He's had a double barrel of scrutiny. The scrutiny associated

:54:03. > :54:10.with being a party leader under scrutiny associated with being a

:54:11. > :54:13.prominent candidate in a very prominent by-election. The

:54:14. > :54:16.cumulative chipping away at him, around where he was living in Stoke,

:54:17. > :54:19.around whether he was ever a professional football and no, he

:54:20. > :54:23.wasn't, he was a youth player at Tranmere, whether he was ever the

:54:24. > :54:26.recipient of a Ph.D., no, he never finished it, and that deeply

:54:27. > :54:32.damaging and embarrassing row about Hillsborough and those claims and

:54:33. > :54:34.quotes from him on his website that turns out were completely wrong, I

:54:35. > :54:37.think was really striking about all of that is that even if he loses

:54:38. > :54:41.tonight and who knows whether that will have been a contributory

:54:42. > :54:44.factoring in him losing, those questions will remain in terms of

:54:45. > :54:50.potentially chipping away at his credibility and authority as Ukip

:54:51. > :54:54.leader. You do wonder whether he's going to have the appetite in the

:54:55. > :54:57.medium term to carry on doing the job and whether there others in Ukip

:54:58. > :55:01.who might think there might be somebody else better to do the job.

:55:02. > :55:05.But then there's a bigger, broader question for Ukip, which is if they

:55:06. > :55:08.can't win in seats like this, given that they've achieved their central

:55:09. > :55:12.objective, or they will eventually have achieved their overall

:55:13. > :55:16.objective of leaving the European Union, where can they win? Is

:55:17. > :55:21.nevertheless it looks as if Ukip have come second, and we don't know

:55:22. > :55:27.how good a second, but if they've come second, have you been able to

:55:28. > :55:33.get an explanation as to why the Prime Minister visited the

:55:34. > :55:36.constituency? No, I haven't had an explanation for that. Because what

:55:37. > :55:39.was really striking was when the Prime Minister went to cope and that

:55:40. > :55:44.was immediately read as a signal that the Prime Minister is turning

:55:45. > :55:47.up in what has been a Labour city since the sailing of the arc, and

:55:48. > :55:51.therefore the Conservatives must be red-hot confident they are going to

:55:52. > :55:57.nick this seat for Labour. And yet she then turned up here in Stoke and

:55:58. > :55:59.over the last couple of days there were 12-macro excited flutters of

:56:00. > :56:04.speculation suggesting the Tories might be doing much better than some

:56:05. > :56:07.had suggested -- one more two excited flutters. For the

:56:08. > :56:12.Conservatives Conservatives to come close in the Glik Stoke-on-Trent

:56:13. > :56:15.Central, particularly when they are in government and governments tend

:56:16. > :56:19.to go backwards rather than forwards in by-elections, is extraordinary. I

:56:20. > :56:25.don't think her sick appearance here signalled Conservative headquarters

:56:26. > :56:28.worth dead cert they would prove the pundits wrong -- I don't think her

:56:29. > :56:32.appearance here signalled. It's clearly like that image we saw of

:56:33. > :56:36.her in the House of Lords the other day, something that Downing Street,

:56:37. > :56:40.to use the parlance, the optics of it, wanted to be seen to be showing

:56:41. > :56:44.her, trying to reach everywhere and all the rest of it, I guessed it

:56:45. > :56:50.visually illustrate that mantra she likes to trot out of being seen as

:56:51. > :56:53.this one nation Conservative who is rebranding the party from how David

:56:54. > :56:57.Cameron approached things. We will let you go, so you can carry them

:56:58. > :57:01.along and tell them to stop messing around, get on with it. I am sure

:57:02. > :57:05.they will listen to you, not to me, but they will to you. Chris Mason,

:57:06. > :57:12.we will come back to you. Barry Gardiner, you wanted to come in.

:57:13. > :57:16.As you said earlier, the Conservatives at the beginning of

:57:17. > :57:22.this campaign really focused their attention on Copeland, because they

:57:23. > :57:29.wanted as much as possible to give Ukip a free run at unseating Labour.

:57:30. > :57:33.The double whammy. You showed the graph Drew, they were level pegging

:57:34. > :57:39.at the last general election, and the Conservatives took a calculator

:57:40. > :57:44.decision. They then saw Paul Nuttall's campaign implode so

:57:45. > :57:47.spectacularly that they thought, actually, maybe we should be

:57:48. > :57:53.re-focusing our efforts on Stoke to see if we can leapfrog. So I think

:57:54. > :57:57.that explains what was going on. I think it was cynical of the

:57:58. > :58:06.Conservative Party to actually want to give Ukip that free run. They

:58:07. > :58:11.couldn't have predicted that Paul Nuttall's campaign would be mired so

:58:12. > :58:18.much. But it looks like that strategy doesn't come off. It looks

:58:19. > :58:22.that way. Let's look at Labour's opinion poor average since last

:58:23. > :58:29.March. It looked pretty dire. They have gone from 33% in March down to

:58:30. > :58:35.27, pretty consistent downward trend. The reason we were given

:58:36. > :58:41.during the summer of last year and even into the autumn is that the

:58:42. > :58:49.leadership campaign had deflected from the issues, had made Labour

:58:50. > :58:53.seem divided, people don't like endless leadership campaigns and

:58:54. > :58:58.that was why when that was over, things would get better. Looking at

:58:59. > :59:06.that, it hasn't stopped we are six points lower. That isn't where we

:59:07. > :59:10.should be. And I think that we have had two very bruising internal

:59:11. > :59:17.fights in the Labour Party over the leadership. That leadership question

:59:18. > :59:22.was settled, and what I am pleased about is the way in which the

:59:23. > :59:25.Parliamentary Labour Party has now begun, the front bench is now

:59:26. > :59:30.filled, people have come back to serve and to begin focusing on the

:59:31. > :59:34.real challenge, which is to be a functioning, proper opposition,

:59:35. > :59:37.attacking the Conservative government for the way in which they

:59:38. > :59:46.are failing on issues like social care, education. But you need to get

:59:47. > :59:53.on with it. We do. We are six points lower. No, you are being very honest

:59:54. > :59:59.but I'm not trying to make more of it than you. That is a job we have

:00:00. > :00:04.to do and we have until 2020 and we are getting on with it. Let me show

:00:05. > :00:11.you one more chart, and then we will go to John Curtice. These are the

:00:12. > :00:16.leader net approval ratings. You can see, I think you can conclude that

:00:17. > :00:21.nobody is that popular, but Mrs May is in positive territory, the Prime

:00:22. > :00:27.Minister. Tim Farron is negative at minus ten. Mr Nuttall, minus 18. He

:00:28. > :00:34.could be falling even lower in recent days. This is the latest poll

:00:35. > :00:43.we have. The big figure, as you can see, is Mr Corbyn, -35 net approval

:00:44. > :00:47.rating. That puts him in a league of his own. Coupled with Labour's

:00:48. > :00:54.opinion poor ratings graph, it isn't a great sign. John Curtice, you

:00:55. > :01:01.follow these charts and polls more closely than anyone else. What do

:01:02. > :01:08.you think is the explanation? Let's stick with Labour down at 27. I

:01:09. > :01:14.think in one poll, they were wrecked 24, really dangerous territory. What

:01:15. > :01:21.is your explanation? The long-term is fairly clear. Difficulty number

:01:22. > :01:25.one for Labour is, how do they persuade people that actually eight

:01:26. > :01:30.social democratic party like Labour can manage capitalism in such a way

:01:31. > :01:36.that, to use the current jargon, the left behind feel that Labour can

:01:37. > :01:42.govern in their interest. I think, since the financial crash, it's been

:01:43. > :01:47.very difficult for Labour to make the case. That isn't unique to the

:01:48. > :01:50.Labour Party, it's common to a number of social democratic parties.

:01:51. > :01:56.The second problem that Labour have is a problem of leadership. It's

:01:57. > :02:00.clear that so far Jeremy Corbyn has convinced very few people in the

:02:01. > :02:04.country that he has what it takes to be Prime Minister, but the other

:02:05. > :02:08.real problem is, once you raise that point, you go onto, who is there on

:02:09. > :02:12.the front bench of the Labour Party that might be capable of persuading

:02:13. > :02:17.the public that they look like a Prime Minister? So far, it seems

:02:18. > :02:23.nobody has stepped into those particular shoes. In a sense, it was

:02:24. > :02:28.remarkable last week at a speech by NX Labour Prime Minister who has an

:02:29. > :02:32.awful lot of baggage around him made much more bars in any speech made by

:02:33. > :02:37.any current Labour politician for some considerable time. There is

:02:38. > :02:43.also a short term problem for Labour, that perhaps Labour have

:02:44. > :02:48.failed to appreciate. What I have particularly been looking at is the

:02:49. > :02:53.decline in Labour support since last summer. In other words, since

:02:54. > :02:58.Theresa May became Prime Minister and since Labour at its leadership

:02:59. > :03:01.election. If this was simply a problem to do with dislike of Jeremy

:03:02. > :03:06.Corbyn, you'd expect the decline in the Labour Party to happen both

:03:07. > :03:11.among Remain and Leave voters. It hasn't. It occurred almost

:03:12. > :03:18.exclusively among those Labour voters who voted to remain and it

:03:19. > :03:22.looks like they have gone to the Liberal Democrats, and the short

:03:23. > :03:26.term problem, which is pretty fundamental, that Labour may face is

:03:27. > :03:32.that, having decided to vote in favour of Article 50, rather than

:03:33. > :03:35.simply abstaining, they have misread their electoral situation, which is

:03:36. > :03:41.that actually a clear majority of Labour voters, people who voted

:03:42. > :03:46.Labour in 2015, voted to remain, and they've been trying to chase the

:03:47. > :03:51.mythical working-class Labour Leave vote, but these are quite thin on

:03:52. > :03:55.the ground. Given its wider political difficulties, the first

:03:56. > :04:01.thing Labour has to do is hang on to its existing vote, and I think its

:04:02. > :04:08.stance on Brexit is put at risk. Barry Gardiner? It's an interesting

:04:09. > :04:12.analysis. If you look at our constituencies, our constituency

:04:13. > :04:16.MPs, two thirds of our MPs voted to remain themselves are actually in

:04:17. > :04:21.Leave seats, and yet two thirds of our voters across the country are

:04:22. > :04:28.actually ones who voted to remain. We are very divided in this way as a

:04:29. > :04:33.party. But I would urge you to remember that the party is very

:04:34. > :04:38.divided on this. It was 48-52. Actually, in that sense, the

:04:39. > :04:43.travails that the Labour Party is going through with Brexit are ones

:04:44. > :04:47.that the country is going to go through as well. What we have to do

:04:48. > :04:53.is work our way through as a country to a point where we get the shape of

:04:54. > :05:02.our leaving settlement to be acceptable to everyone, the 48 and

:05:03. > :05:07.the 52. That's impossible. I think, if you go for the sort of hard,

:05:08. > :05:13.deregulated, offshore tax haven that some in the Conservative Party would

:05:14. > :05:17.like to see, then it is. Who is calling for that? The Prime

:05:18. > :05:23.Minister. She never said tax haven, deregulated. These are all words

:05:24. > :05:28.that you have decided to interpret what she said. I think her message

:05:29. > :05:32.to the EU was a replay, and that was, if we don't get the deal we

:05:33. > :05:40.want, that is the option we will go for. -- her message was very clear.

:05:41. > :05:44.You know that it resonates with the things that people like Liam Fox,

:05:45. > :05:51.David Davis, Peter Lillee, John Redwood have consistently called

:05:52. > :05:58.for, that deregulation. That is part of the agenda there. So I do think

:05:59. > :06:02.there are real issues here, where we have to try and construct a much

:06:03. > :06:07.softer Brexit, one which gives business access into the European

:06:08. > :06:13.market in as free a way as possible, and that is why I say we are going

:06:14. > :06:18.through traumas in this at a party, and the country is going to go

:06:19. > :06:23.through those, too. When the minister said, if we ended up with

:06:24. > :06:27.no deal, and she said no deal would be better than a bad deal but she

:06:28. > :06:32.said, if that happened, we would have to reconsider our economic

:06:33. > :06:37.model. What did she mean? She has been very clear that we will protect

:06:38. > :06:44.workers' rights. That is the existing EU. That is what I was

:06:45. > :06:48.going to come onto. What did she mean by reconsidering our economic

:06:49. > :06:52.model? Making sure we are competitive as a nation so we can

:06:53. > :06:58.succeed. You wouldn't do that anyway? We have to do that as much

:06:59. > :07:03.as we can. Surely all governments want to try and make us competitive.

:07:04. > :07:10.What did she say by saying we would have to reconsider the economic

:07:11. > :07:16.model? Making sure we can make a success Brexit, because we will have

:07:17. > :07:21.to round the world. We do trade around the world at the moment. You

:07:22. > :07:24.see, by not being able to answer that question, you have allowed

:07:25. > :07:31.Labour to fill the question. Labour is saying that what she meant was a

:07:32. > :07:41.tax haven, Singapore, deregulated, no protection... Liam Fox... I am

:07:42. > :07:48.not saying that is true or not. Your inability to answer the question is

:07:49. > :07:53.that they can fill the vacuum. What does rethinking it mean? It means

:07:54. > :08:03.being a highly competitive economy, especially on the tax side.

:08:04. > :08:10.Deregulating tax! Is that not the economic model at the moment of this

:08:11. > :08:15.government to create a highly competitive economy? Of calls. So it

:08:16. > :08:21.isn't any different. What is new to reconsider? She also mentioned as

:08:22. > :08:29.part of this being competitive in terms of taxes. Isn't that existing

:08:30. > :08:36.government policy? We are reducing incorporation tax. I will try one

:08:37. > :08:39.more time. I am beginning to feel like asking Jack Dromey about Nato.

:08:40. > :08:47.What would be knew about a new economic model? That we would be as

:08:48. > :08:52.competitive as possible. So it is existing policy to be as

:08:53. > :09:00.uncompetitive as possible. Of course it's not. What's the difference? We

:09:01. > :09:05.are going to make a success of Brexit and Barry is wrong in the

:09:06. > :09:08.argument that somehow the fact that Labour haven't got a united plan on

:09:09. > :09:14.Brexit, that it's all going to come right for them. The truth is that

:09:15. > :09:20.there is only one party that is strong on the economy, strong on

:09:21. > :09:23.safety, as they plan on Brexit, and frankly has strong leadership. If

:09:24. > :09:28.you look at those figures on leadership that you showed, you

:09:29. > :09:32.concentrated on the negative Jeremy Corbyn once, it's unusual for any

:09:33. > :09:38.politician to be positive, and the fact that Theresa May as a positive

:09:39. > :09:43.rating is significant. It's not unusual, plenty of leaders have had

:09:44. > :09:48.positive ratings. It's her honeymoon period and she still only has that

:09:49. > :09:55.figure. She can reach parts of the country... Conservative prime

:09:56. > :10:01.ministers have not been able to get there for some time. I know when to

:10:02. > :10:09.quit! Let's go back to Tom Bateman at the count in Copland. Tom, bring

:10:10. > :10:13.us up-to-date. Andrew, we are still having lots of counting going on. I

:10:14. > :10:17.think we are still at least an hour away from a declaration. I have to

:10:18. > :10:22.tell you that very little has changed in terms of the mood between

:10:23. > :10:27.Labour and the Tories. IMC and lots of Conservatives with their blue

:10:28. > :10:33.rosettes standing round with arms folded, quite as ebullient and

:10:34. > :10:38.bullish as they were at the start of the night, particularly earlier this

:10:39. > :10:42.week. -- not quite. Does that tell us that they think they are not

:10:43. > :10:48.going to get the seat? I'm not so sure. One of the key points about

:10:49. > :10:51.this constituency is it is huge. Getting people out at each polling

:10:52. > :10:54.station is a lot harder here. I think that's why there has been less

:10:55. > :11:00.intelligence about how the result might pan out. But still the word is

:11:01. > :11:03.from both sides that this is a two horse race and they still don't know

:11:04. > :11:08.who is going to win. One factor that has been bouncing around the whole,

:11:09. > :11:12.that gives you a sense, allows us to frame the importance, the

:11:13. > :11:17.potentially historic nature of a Conservative win, the last

:11:18. > :11:26.Conservative MP for this area was a child of the 70s, but that was the

:11:27. > :11:31.1870s, born in 1879. I remember him! I think I interviewed him! I think

:11:32. > :11:39.you did. Do you remember what you said? Just to clarify one thing,

:11:40. > :11:45.they are actually still counting? They are not yet at the stage where

:11:46. > :11:48.they are assessing the doubtful ballot papers, the more dubious

:11:49. > :11:54.ballot papers? They are still counting? We have had a bit of that,

:11:55. > :11:58.but the verification went on for a while. There was then quite a long

:11:59. > :12:03.hiatus, an unusual gap, where the people counting were given a rake.

:12:04. > :12:09.Once they start counting, they can't stop. Counting got underway a bit

:12:10. > :12:15.later than we expected. It is still going on. I was told by one senior

:12:16. > :12:18.Conservative figure here that they expect a result around 3am, but I

:12:19. > :12:25.think they might push that back a little.

:12:26. > :12:32.Let's go to Stoke, which will probably report before Copeland, a

:12:33. > :12:37.smaller constituency, more compact, a smaller turnout. Copeland is

:12:38. > :12:41.spread out geographically, Labour's biggest constituency going into this

:12:42. > :12:46.election. Bring is up to date in Stoke-on-Trent. Good morning from

:12:47. > :12:49.Stoke, whether the ground-breaking attempt to do the best piece of

:12:50. > :12:53.television I've ever done. I'm going to step out of shot and show you

:12:54. > :12:57.what we're waiting for, which is the returning officer to roll up in

:12:58. > :13:02.front of that microphone. You get a sense from the gathering crowds that

:13:03. > :13:07.it's pretty imminent. I've just seen some Labour types just outside of

:13:08. > :13:18.the shot carrying... Hang on. Who is that? Thank you very much. Right, I

:13:19. > :13:20.think that means we are going to get the result pretty soon. They are

:13:21. > :13:26.gathering the candidates together right now. If I ducked below the

:13:27. > :13:31.camera, we will see if we can follow around as we see the candidate from

:13:32. > :13:35.the official Monster Raving Loony Party, and a good number of

:13:36. > :13:40.activists from the other parties as well, which would suggest we are

:13:41. > :13:46.getting relatively close to the result here. I was just saying that

:13:47. > :13:49.the Labour supporters here are all carrying posters, which I expect

:13:50. > :13:53.they are planning to start waving around jubilantly when their victory

:13:54. > :13:59.is confirmed. Their victory seems pretty much a certainty now. Ukip

:14:00. > :14:03.maintaining a sense of humour, in spite of what looks like a defeat

:14:04. > :14:07.they are heading for. One Ukip activist just saying to me recently

:14:08. > :14:13.that whatever the result, Paul Nuttall's website will say he's won!

:14:14. > :14:20.Yes, well, that may be in character! Who knows. We'll come back to you.

:14:21. > :14:27.I'm glad you hurried them along, as we ask you to do last time. Looking

:14:28. > :14:31.good -- not looking good for Ukip, is it? It would be disappointing if

:14:32. > :14:35.we don't win, but we'll have to see what the actual result is and how

:14:36. > :14:38.close it is. I think you are going to see the continued pattern of

:14:39. > :14:42.Labour going down and what might be interesting is the percentage of the

:14:43. > :14:46.vote for Labour might be less than the percentage of people who voted

:14:47. > :14:51.to remain in the European Union, so that would be quite interesting, if

:14:52. > :14:58.you had a candidate... Sorry, you will have to run that threw me again

:14:59. > :15:03.you have 35% of Stoke voting to remain. If Labour have less than

:15:04. > :15:07.35%, they might have less of a vote for labour in this by-election and

:15:08. > :15:13.Stoke had to remain, so that would be quite interesting for the Labour

:15:14. > :15:18.candidate couldn't... In what way would it be significant? Ukip other

:15:19. > :15:21.party for Leave, so Labour the problem Labour have across the

:15:22. > :15:25.country is that you know that a lot of people did vote for Article 50

:15:26. > :15:29.and supported the government, but you know at heart, a lot of them

:15:30. > :15:36.didn't really want to do it. Think people understand that at heart they

:15:37. > :15:39.are not a party full of MPs who really, really want to leave the

:15:40. > :15:44.European Union. They are respecting the will of the people, but I think

:15:45. > :15:48.if you want someone who was an MP who really genuinely wants to leave

:15:49. > :15:53.the European Union and get the best deal for Britain, then you vote

:15:54. > :15:56.Ukip. Clearly, not clearly, but we don't think the people of

:15:57. > :16:00.Stoke-on-Trent Central have done that tonight. If John Curtice is

:16:01. > :16:05.right and of course John Curtice is always right, caveats not really

:16:06. > :16:12.necessary, but if he's right that actually for Ukip there are not that

:16:13. > :16:17.many Labour leave votes up for grabs, that there are fewer than you

:16:18. > :16:20.think, and he was saying there may be more rich pickings in the

:16:21. > :16:24.Conservatives, but I would suggest to you that most Conservative leave

:16:25. > :16:28.voters are pretty happy with what Mrs May is doing at the moment on

:16:29. > :16:32.the Brexit front. They trust her. Don't think she's going to try and

:16:33. > :16:42.wheedle out of it. So if they are happy and there are not that many

:16:43. > :16:45.Labour Leavers around, where do you go? In the constituency like this

:16:46. > :16:50.you would hope people will see this as a two horse race and you would

:16:51. > :16:54.hope people who do want someone who genuinely wants to leave would vote

:16:55. > :16:58.for Ukip, because the Conservatives are not in this particular race in

:16:59. > :17:02.Stoke. And that's true, but even then it doesn't look like you've

:17:03. > :17:08.done it. We've got to see what happens. Yes, but you know the way,

:17:09. > :17:12.we've done a lot of these things. You can make mistakes you can get

:17:13. > :17:17.things horrendously wrong, but I think in Copeland I wouldn't stick

:17:18. > :17:23.my neck out at all, but I do think we can say the way this is going in

:17:24. > :17:28.Stoke. If you cannot get disillusioned Tories to come and

:17:29. > :17:34.join you, if you can't get a combination of leave Labour voters

:17:35. > :17:39.who maybe don't like Mr Corbyn don't really believe Labour when it says

:17:40. > :17:42.it's going to go for leave, now and disillusioned Tories, or Tories to

:17:43. > :17:48.vote tactically to beat Labour, in Stoke, then I don't know where you

:17:49. > :17:52.go. This is just one by-election, so we'll have to see what happens in

:17:53. > :17:57.the future. There might be, there will be a by-election in Min Lee

:17:58. > :18:00.perhaps coming up after the Manchester mayoral election so we'll

:18:01. > :18:06.see what happens there. We'll see what happens going into the future.

:18:07. > :18:09.You can't keep losing by-elections, can you? Insurgent parties, of which

:18:10. > :18:16.you are one and the Lib Dems, we know this too, you kind of needs the

:18:17. > :18:19.oxygen of by-election victories to get the publicity, to rally the

:18:20. > :18:24.troops, to put a spring in your step. You can't keep on being

:18:25. > :18:28.knocked back and hope ever to make progress. You've got one MP and he's

:18:29. > :18:31.semidetached. This has been a very positive campaign. It's been very

:18:32. > :18:36.good for the party. There's been so many people have gone to support

:18:37. > :18:40.Paul Nuttall here in Stoke homicides been a fantastic atmosphere could

:18:41. > :18:49.fantastic campaign for Ukip, and I think we will keep that going

:18:50. > :18:53.forward. You are putting the best gloss on it. We will look to the

:18:54. > :18:56.future, continued to fight and do the best for our country. There was

:18:57. > :19:02.a time when the Tories were worried about Ukip. That's one of the

:19:03. > :19:05.reasons I think Mr Cameron gave as a referendum. In fact, it was the

:19:06. > :19:12.reason he gave a referendum. And there was a worry there would be

:19:13. > :19:15.appealing off of Tory vote in key constituencies towards Ukip. Am I

:19:16. > :19:19.right in thinking now that you are not really worried about Ukip

:19:20. > :19:25.anymore? Obviously we want to get votes from wherever, but I think the

:19:26. > :19:31.truth is that the delivering on the referendum result is something that

:19:32. > :19:39.the Tory party is incredibly united around. Whether people voted.

:19:40. > :19:43.Largely. Not entirely. Whether people voted Remain but believe in

:19:44. > :19:48.democracy, I voted for the referendum in Parliament, I voted

:19:49. > :19:53.Remain, but now I am steadfast behind making sure that we leave

:19:54. > :20:02.because I believe in democracy and then of course Tory supporters, Tory

:20:03. > :20:05.voters, who voted to leave in the referendum obviously are pleased we

:20:06. > :20:11.are leaving and delighted that the Prime Minister is delivering on that

:20:12. > :20:14.result. So I think that has brought the Tory party together over Europe,

:20:15. > :20:19.in the way that we weren't before. And that helps the Tories in a way,

:20:20. > :20:22.doesn't it, because we know what happens to parties when rival

:20:23. > :20:26.parties come and take their vote away, the social Democrats did so

:20:27. > :20:31.with Labour, the Tories are always worried that Ukip could do that as

:20:32. > :20:38.well. It means the Tories haven't got so much fear now of a major

:20:39. > :20:44.party taking a chunk of their votes what happened is the Conservatives

:20:45. > :20:49.have moved towards the far right, which is represented by Ukip, so

:20:50. > :20:58.what we've got. The far right. If they are the far right... The far,

:20:59. > :21:03.far right. Wake we haven't moved to the right at all. That's caused

:21:04. > :21:11.upset, hasn't it? We are right in the middle. We have three Brexit

:21:12. > :21:15.parties, struggling for the votes of the 52%. We are just watching

:21:16. > :21:20.pictures that Stoke, just to let our viewers know. There's a lot of

:21:21. > :21:26.milling going around, as there usually is. The Labour candidacy is

:21:27. > :21:31.there. Again, we are getting to the result. I interrupted you, please

:21:32. > :21:36.carry on, as we watch these pictures. There are three Brexit

:21:37. > :21:40.parties now, who are struggling for the votes of those who voted to

:21:41. > :21:45.leave, and Liberal Democrats are saying, actually, we've always been

:21:46. > :21:50.pro-European ring, always been international. I'm going to

:21:51. > :21:53.interrupt you again, I'm so rude, we are seeing pictures of the Labour

:21:54. > :21:59.candidate but if that wasn't the picture of winning I'm not quite

:22:00. > :22:04.sure, sorry, he, I beg your pardon full stop here we go. Let's go

:22:05. > :22:17.straight to Stoke-on-Trent. Is as follows. Mohammad Akram,

:22:18. > :22:31.Independent, 56 votes. Zulfikar Ali, Liberal Democrats, 2083 votes. Jack

:22:32. > :22:39.Brereton, the Conservative Party candidate, 5154 votes. Adam

:22:40. > :22:53.Colclough, the Green Party, 294 votes. Godfrey Davies, Christian

:22:54. > :22:54.Peoples Alliance, 109 votes. Nicholas Ellsworth, official Monster

:22:55. > :23:12.Raving Loony Party, 127 votes. Barbara Fielding, Independent, 137

:23:13. > :23:28.votes. David Furness, British National Party, local people first,

:23:29. > :23:47.124. Paul Nuttall, UK Independence Party, 5233 votes. Gareth Snell,

:23:48. > :23:53.Labour Party, 7800, I'll repeat that, 7853 votes. The number of

:23:54. > :24:01.ballot papers rejected was as follows. Want of unofficial mark,

:24:02. > :24:07.zero, voting for more candidates than the voter was entitled to, ten,

:24:08. > :24:12.writing or mark by which voter could buy identified, 18, being unmarked

:24:13. > :24:17.or wholly void from certainty, sorry, being marked or wholly void

:24:18. > :24:25.from certainty, 18, rejected in part, zero, total, 30. The

:24:26. > :24:34.electorate was 55,572. The ballot papers issued were 21,000 200. The

:24:35. > :24:42.turnout was 38.16%. I do hereby declare that the said Gareth Snell

:24:43. > :24:59.has been duly elected. APPLAUSE

:25:00. > :25:06.Well, there's a lot of user, that's interesting. I'd like to start by

:25:07. > :25:09.saying thank you to the returning officer and their staff for all the

:25:10. > :25:16.work in making a selection run smoothly. I also must thank my wife,

:25:17. > :25:20.Sophia, and our beautiful daughter, Hannah. Both are a constant source

:25:21. > :25:25.of strength, of love and of inspiration to me, and without their

:25:26. > :25:28.support this campaign simply would not have been possible.

:25:29. > :25:34.APPLAUSE You can all clap my wife, that's

:25:35. > :25:38.fine. Can I also thank the police for all they have done today and

:25:39. > :25:44.throughout the campaign. For democracy to work, it needs to

:25:45. > :25:47.support of dedicated public servants and here in Stoke-on-Trent we can be

:25:48. > :25:52.proud to have some of the most dedicated in the country. I'd also

:25:53. > :25:57.like to thank my agent, George Sinnott, wherever he may be, and the

:25:58. > :25:59.incredible team of Labour Party workers and volunteers who have

:26:00. > :26:04.sustained this campaign will stop not least Jack drove me for running

:26:05. > :26:11.my campaign and Ruth Smeeth for being my aid. To see the energy and

:26:12. > :26:14.commitment that all have shown in these last few weeks is a reminder

:26:15. > :26:21.of the incredible strength and passion of our Labour movement. I

:26:22. > :26:26.feel profoundly humbled to have been elected as the member of Parliament.

:26:27. > :26:32.Conference Central. My wife Sophia and I chose to make our home here

:26:33. > :26:37.and it was the best decision we ever made. I'm proud to call the

:26:38. > :26:42.potteries my home and I'm prouder still to be have been elected as its

:26:43. > :26:46.next Member of Parliament. In recent weeks Stoke-on-Trent has found

:26:47. > :26:50.itself in the national spotlight. Our city has been the focus of our

:26:51. > :26:54.media which all too often prepares to dwell on our problems instead of

:26:55. > :27:00.highlighting our achievements. But over the last few weeks, a city

:27:01. > :27:04.dubbed by some as the capital of Brexit has once again proven to the

:27:05. > :27:09.world that we are so much more than that. We are city of innovators and

:27:10. > :27:14.educators. Artists and entrepreneurs. We pioneered the

:27:15. > :27:20.first Industrial Revolution and I believe we have the potential to

:27:21. > :27:25.lead the next one. This city will not allow ourselves to be defined by

:27:26. > :27:30.last year's referendum. And we will not our Lascelles to be divided by

:27:31. > :27:35.the result. -- we will not allow ourselves. Nor will we be divided by

:27:36. > :27:40.race, faith or creed. We will move forward together to tackle the

:27:41. > :27:45.problem is that we face and secure a brighter, more prosperous future for

:27:46. > :27:50.everyone. So to those of you who came to Stoke-on-Trent to sow hatred

:27:51. > :27:53.and division and Shelagh Turner is away from our friends and

:27:54. > :28:01.neighbours, I have one very simple message. You have failed.

:28:02. > :28:04.CHEERING Tonight, the people of

:28:05. > :28:09.Stoke-on-Trent have chosen the politics of hope over the politics

:28:10. > :28:13.of fear. We have said with one voice that hatred and bigotry are not

:28:14. > :28:17.welcome here and this is a proud city and we will stand together.

:28:18. > :28:22.This election is a victory for British values of tolerance and

:28:23. > :28:28.respect. But it is also a victory for the proud Labour values that are

:28:29. > :28:33.the hallmark of our city and its people. It is a message that the

:28:34. > :28:36.people of Stoke-on-Trent won't just sit back whilst the Tory government

:28:37. > :28:41.cuts our national Health Service to the bone and what's the future of

:28:42. > :28:46.our public services at risk. Is a warning that we will not stand idly

:28:47. > :28:50.by while politicians in Westminster, who are -- pour ever more money into

:28:51. > :28:54.London and the south-east, while the rest of the country is simply left

:28:55. > :28:58.to fend for itself, and it's a demand that the contribution our

:28:59. > :29:03.people have made to the country is respected and rewarded with the

:29:04. > :29:10.support and investment we deserve. Politics can be passionate and there

:29:11. > :29:15.have been moments in this campaign that has polarised people. But my

:29:16. > :29:20.job, and it is the job of all others here, will be to put this campaign

:29:21. > :29:24.us and work together. For those who voted for me in the election -- in

:29:25. > :29:28.this election I say thank you very much, but for those who did not come

:29:29. > :29:31.all those who did not vote at all, I want you to know that I will be your

:29:32. > :29:35.representative as well. I will work every day to repay the trust that

:29:36. > :29:39.has been shown to me by the people of Stoke-on-Trent. I will be a

:29:40. > :29:42.strong local voice that our city needs and I will always put the

:29:43. > :29:48.people of Stoke-on-Trent first. I have a plan for the potteries and

:29:49. > :30:03.that plan begins today. Thank you very much.

:30:04. > :30:08.So, there we have it, Gareth Snell, the Labour candidate in

:30:09. > :30:14.Stoke-on-Trent Central, is the new MP for the constituency. You won

:30:15. > :30:20.with a majority of 2620, lower than the majority Labour had in the

:30:21. > :30:25.general election, but of course the label was -- the turnout was low.

:30:26. > :30:31.Paul Nuttall, who we hope to hear from any few minutes, he was next.

:30:32. > :30:35.So he was pretty far behind. The Conservatives were not far behind

:30:36. > :30:41.Ukip, a repeat of the general election, where they were pretty nip

:30:42. > :30:47.and tuck, with Ukip just a little ahead. A comfortable victory in the

:30:48. > :30:51.context of what was going on, although of course it is a seat in

:30:52. > :30:56.normal times you'd expect Labour to hold without difficulty. They held

:30:57. > :31:01.it with a reduced share of the vote, getting 39.3% of the vote in the

:31:02. > :31:07.general election. In the by-election, that came down a bit,

:31:08. > :31:16.not hugely. The Tory share of the vote was up about 2%, as was the

:31:17. > :31:22.Ukip share of the vote. The Lib Dems got a decent share of the vote.

:31:23. > :31:30.Their share went up, but from a very low base. There was really only one

:31:31. > :31:36.way to go, I'd suggest. But he did go up. So Labour, down two, Ukip and

:31:37. > :31:53.the Conservatives both up. So the majority is halved and I

:31:54. > :32:03.think that's the best share of the vote for the Conservatives since

:32:04. > :32:09.1992, so this is bad news for Labour... Well, they won. Even in

:32:10. > :32:14.mid-term, their majority and their share is falling. It's true that

:32:15. > :32:18.their share has fallen, which is the key indicator, but their overall

:32:19. > :32:24.Giorgi has fallen because the vote turnout was so low. My reaction is

:32:25. > :32:37.to congratulate Gareth and also Jack Dromey and roofs need -- Ruth and

:32:38. > :32:41.her mum, who did a lot in the constituency. Five or six weeks ago,

:32:42. > :32:47.when it was announced that Tristram Hunt was standing down, the pundits

:32:48. > :32:51.said, especially when Paul Nuttall came into the race, that this was a

:32:52. > :32:57.seat that Labour was going to lose, that Ukip were going to win. I am

:32:58. > :33:02.delighted that obviously we have kept the seat. Did the pundits say

:33:03. > :33:07.that? I just remember them saying it could be a race and Ukip would be in

:33:08. > :33:12.with a chance. I can't remember anybody saying that Ukip would

:33:13. > :33:20.definitely win. My sense of things is simply this. We have won the

:33:21. > :33:25.seat. I am pleased we have won it. But our share has gone down 2%. I am

:33:26. > :33:30.not happy about that. If you look at it in the context of where the

:33:31. > :33:34.Labour Party is in the polls, which is very low, we can say that the

:33:35. > :33:38.people of stoke central and given a clear victory to the Labour Party. I

:33:39. > :33:43.am delighted about that but we have lots of work to do. We have been

:33:44. > :33:47.watching pictures of Paul Nuttall leaving in a bit of a rugby scrum,

:33:48. > :33:53.leaving the count, the sports centre. I will try and get

:33:54. > :33:57.confirmation, but Paul Nuttall didn't speak in the end? He didn't

:33:58. > :34:06.say anything? Has he just left a hole? He didn't do a speech. -- he

:34:07. > :34:10.just left the hall. In a sense, Labour winning is the story from

:34:11. > :34:15.Stoke, but the story up there with it will be Mr Nuttall himself, and

:34:16. > :34:20.that will carry on. Let's go to the victor of Stoke-on-Trent Central,

:34:21. > :34:26.Gareth Snell. He joins us from the count. You won, but on a reduced

:34:27. > :34:33.majority and a lower share of the vote. Why do you think that was? The

:34:34. > :34:39.issue is that we won the election. We had a hard-fought campaign that

:34:40. > :34:43.focused on the NHS the issues that affected local people and in the end

:34:44. > :34:48.they elected a Labour member of Parliament, and I'm glad about that.

:34:49. > :34:52.In a constituency like Stoke, which has been Labour for as long as

:34:53. > :34:56.anybody can remember, in a by-election in the middle of a

:34:57. > :35:02.Conservative government, would you not have expected increase your

:35:03. > :35:05.majority and share of the vote? I am very happy that the people of

:35:06. > :35:09.Stoke-on-Trent Central, provided with a range of candidates, opted to

:35:10. > :35:12.elect a Labour candidate of their member of Parliament. This campaign

:35:13. > :35:17.has been about many issues and, while there may have been a slight

:35:18. > :35:20.decrease in our share of the vote, the turnout was much further down

:35:21. > :35:27.than last general election and I am happy. You had a fight on your

:35:28. > :35:30.hands, though, a fight which you won, and you probably won it a bit

:35:31. > :35:33.better than some may have thought, but it was a fight nonetheless and

:35:34. > :35:39.there were concerns in the Labour Party. Do you accept that what might

:35:40. > :35:45.be regarded as more normal times for the Labour Party that your victory

:35:46. > :35:49.would not have been in doubt? Every by-election has to be taken

:35:50. > :35:53.seriously. We have fought this election on the issues that matter

:35:54. > :35:56.to local people. We have listened to them and we have a plan to help

:35:57. > :36:01.them. Ultimately, people came out and voted for the Labour Party.

:36:02. > :36:05.By-elections are never going to be straightforward. We fight for every

:36:06. > :36:12.vote. But you have continued a trend, which is well-established in

:36:13. > :36:17.Stoke since 1997, of a continuously declining Labour share of the vote.

:36:18. > :36:24.In a Labour heartland constituency, which you now represent, why is your

:36:25. > :36:33.share of the vote in consistent decline? I can't give an immediate

:36:34. > :36:36.answer, but I want to see as many people voting as possible, so

:36:37. > :36:39.between now and the next general election I will be on the streets,

:36:40. > :36:43.talking to people who didn't use their vote, trying to find the

:36:44. > :36:48.reasons why and giving them a positive reason to vote Labour at

:36:49. > :36:53.the next election that is how we will turn wrote the decline across

:36:54. > :36:59.the country. How big asset in your victory was Mr Corbyn? Jeremy

:37:00. > :37:03.campaign for me three times. Whenever we knocked on the door and

:37:04. > :37:08.he spoke to somebody, they were happy to see him. He fired up the

:37:09. > :37:14.members at a number of rallies. So he contributed to your victory, you

:37:15. > :37:20.think? I didn't quite catch that. He contributed to your victory. This

:37:21. > :37:24.was a victory for the whole Labour Party and Labour movement. Jeremy

:37:25. > :37:30.came to Stoke-on-Trent three times and the victory will be shared by

:37:31. > :37:35.everybody. ... Where would you position yourself in the party? I am

:37:36. > :37:41.a Labour of the Labour Party. That is what I concentrate on. In the

:37:42. > :37:47.spectrum of the party, where would you position yourself? I am not

:37:48. > :37:52.going to get into that. This is a bout a Labour Party that, when we

:37:53. > :37:57.are united in the determined -- united and determined, can win in

:37:58. > :38:02.the toughest circumstances. I would suggest you are not a Corbynista,

:38:03. > :38:06.right? The leadership election has been and gone. The purpose of the

:38:07. > :38:10.Labour Party now is to unite and take the fight to the Tories, and

:38:11. > :38:16.that is what I will be doing from Parliament as the MP for

:38:17. > :38:19.Stoke-on-Trent Central. Are you going to continue tweeting? I shall

:38:20. > :38:22.be taking some guidance on the matter, but I think social media is

:38:23. > :38:28.a very good way of engaging with the public. Very well, we look forward

:38:29. > :38:32.to the outcome of that because it has given us plenty to talk about in

:38:33. > :38:36.the past. We will let you go. It's been a long campaign for you. Thank

:38:37. > :38:42.you for joining us straight after your victory speech. The new Labour

:38:43. > :38:49.MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central. Let's go straight to join John Curtice

:38:50. > :38:55.who, while I was talking to the victor, was crunching the numbers.

:38:56. > :38:57.Tell us what to think. We have to acknowledge that the pundits and

:38:58. > :39:02.many commentators read this by-election incorrectly. We were

:39:03. > :39:08.told perpetually that this was a two horse race between Labour and Ukip

:39:09. > :39:13.and, in the end, it wasn't. The Conservative vote didn't fall away

:39:14. > :39:16.and, in fact, it increased by a couple of points, and this is only

:39:17. > :39:22.the sixth by-election held in England since 1970 in which the vote

:39:23. > :39:28.for a government party has actually increased in a by-election. I would

:39:29. > :39:31.suggest to you that the failure of Ukip pars campaign rests quite

:39:32. > :39:38.heavily on its failure to squeeze the Labour vote. Earlier on, Barry

:39:39. > :39:40.Gardiner was complaining that the Tories hadn't campaigned strongly

:39:41. > :39:44.enough in the constituency and they were trying to give Ukip a free

:39:45. > :39:49.ride. If that's what they were trying to do, they failed

:39:50. > :39:51.spectacularly. Here is an indication, if Ukip are serious

:39:52. > :39:55.about winning Labour held seats in the north and Midlands, that

:39:56. > :40:01.objective is not going to be achieved simply by attacking the

:40:02. > :40:05.Labour vote and presenting Ukip as an alternative working class party.

:40:06. > :40:11.It's also going to be dependent on winning over those many Conservative

:40:12. > :40:15.voters who voted for Leave, and it looks very likely to me that in the

:40:16. > :40:18.end is to not all's attempt to attack Labour meant that he missed

:40:19. > :40:25.above all what he should have focused on, which was squeezing the

:40:26. > :40:29.Conservative voters. I would suggest that not only did he fail to squeeze

:40:30. > :40:34.it, but the Conservative share of the vote actually went up. In terms

:40:35. > :40:39.of share, there were no defections from the Tories to Ukip. All the

:40:40. > :40:44.media is saying, Ukip is the chance to win, but Tory voters didn't go to

:40:45. > :40:50.Ukip to defeat Labour. Guests. This is only the sixth by-election since

:40:51. > :40:54.1970 in which the share of the vote of the government party has

:40:55. > :41:00.increased in a by-election in England. That is how remarkable it

:41:01. > :41:05.is that the Conservatives held onto their vote, and the fact that they

:41:06. > :41:09.did so in a constituency where you think they would be subject to a

:41:10. > :41:13.squeeze is remarkable. Whatever the eventual outcome proved to be, we

:41:14. > :41:16.have been spending most of the evening wondering whether the

:41:17. > :41:19.Conservatives might win Copeland because, if they have performed

:41:20. > :41:28.there, but also increasing their vote share, they may well be in with

:41:29. > :41:34.a chance. The Liberal Democrats managed to increase their share of

:41:35. > :41:37.the vote. Every by-election that has taken place since the EU referendum

:41:38. > :41:41.is seen some increase in the Liberal Democrat vote, but that said the

:41:42. > :41:45.party's share of the vote is still below what it was in this

:41:46. > :41:51.constituency in 2010, but confirmation of some modest revival

:41:52. > :41:54.in Liberal Democrats fortunes is now evident in Parliamentary

:41:55. > :41:58.by-elections, even without the circumstances of Richmond, where

:41:59. > :42:02.there was a constituency with a large Remain vote. Another

:42:03. > :42:08.indication to Labour that you shouldn't just be worrying about

:42:09. > :42:12.Ukip but, in other circumstances, losing votes to the Liberal

:42:13. > :42:14.Democrats but also cost you dearly. Thank you. We are going to go back

:42:15. > :42:26.to Stoke in a second. You seemed to fail on two fans. You

:42:27. > :42:30.failed to attract Labour voters, who were perhaps suspicious of Labour's

:42:31. > :42:33.commitment to Brexit and in particular the candidates'

:42:34. > :42:37.commitment, and you failed to attract tactical Conservative voters

:42:38. > :42:43.that could have moved from the Tories to Ukip, because it was

:42:44. > :42:48.thought you had the best chance of being -- beating Labour. A failure

:42:49. > :42:52.on both fronts. To look on the bright side, we increased our share

:42:53. > :42:58.of the vote by 2%. What your analysts said there, John Curtice,

:42:59. > :43:02.it was a very interesting and good analysis. Which you have failed on

:43:03. > :43:07.both fronts. In the end it turned out to be a three horse race in the

:43:08. > :43:13.result and we need to attract voters from the Conservatives and Labour

:43:14. > :43:16.Party. Is it not the case that Mr not all, the kind of controversy

:43:17. > :43:22.that dogged him through this campaign, the kind of campaign he

:43:23. > :43:26.ran, in some cases becoming almost a figure of fun in the media, not

:43:27. > :43:32.necessarily that part of the media that is naturally hostile, I would

:43:33. > :43:37.suggest that's probably one of the reasons why Conservative voters did

:43:38. > :43:41.not switch to Ukip. They just didn't think Mr Nuttall was the kind of

:43:42. > :43:44.candidate they wanted to give their vote too. I think we run a positive

:43:45. > :43:49.campaign with a positive message that Brexit will be good for the

:43:50. > :43:52.country and also very positive about the NHS, that it will remain free at

:43:53. > :43:58.the point of delivery with Ukip and we are going to look after the NHS.

:43:59. > :44:02.And yet it failed on the two grounds I've given, so there's no point

:44:03. > :44:07.going over all that. You've lost another by-election opportunity to

:44:08. > :44:12.establish yourself. In parliamentary terms, your party is going nowhere.

:44:13. > :44:17.Well, look, we did increase our share of the vote by 2%. We needed

:44:18. > :44:20.to increase it a bit more to have won this seat. We'll have to look at

:44:21. > :44:23.what we need to do in the future to increase it even more but it's a

:44:24. > :44:31.positive step. We have increased our share of the vote of a very safe

:44:32. > :44:34.Labour seat. It's been a Labour seat since the 1930s. Nigel Farage said,

:44:35. > :44:38.you had to win this seat. It was fundamental that you won this seat.

:44:39. > :44:44.It certainly would have been a very good win for us at this particular

:44:45. > :44:47.time. Obviously it didn't happen, but... Winning Stoke was

:44:48. > :44:55.fundamental, quote from Nigel Farage. Now that you didn't, I would

:44:56. > :44:58.suggest knowing the history of Ukip, there's a pretty good chance you're

:44:59. > :45:03.about to enter yet another leadership crisis. Absolutely not.

:45:04. > :45:06.Paul is our leader. We are all going to stand behind Paul and with Paul

:45:07. > :45:10.and we will live to fight another day. As I said before, there will be

:45:11. > :45:20.another by-election very probably coming up in June or July. If you

:45:21. > :45:23.can't Stoke, your unlikely to win Leigh. We need to learn the lessons

:45:24. > :45:29.from this, we increased our vote share, we need to learn what to do

:45:30. > :45:32.to increase it even more so when other opportunities, we are better

:45:33. > :45:38.prepared and more likely to win. So I said that Paul Nuttall had gone

:45:39. > :45:43.from the count without doing the traditional part of the speeches the

:45:44. > :45:48.candidates make. That's true. But he did speak to the press on the way

:45:49. > :45:53.out and that's -- in that sort of Rugby scrum we caught the tail end

:45:54. > :45:58.of. Chris Mason is in Stoke. Let's see if Chris managed to catch what

:45:59. > :46:04.he was saying. What happened with Mr Nuttall, Chris? There was a rugby

:46:05. > :46:07.scrum. I was right in the thick of it. It's a kind of British

:46:08. > :46:11.Parliamentary by-election tradition, isn't it, that the press will follow

:46:12. > :46:15.the principle losing candidate all the way out of a sports hall, all

:46:16. > :46:19.the way down the steps, through the dark, into the car park and all the

:46:20. > :46:23.way to their car lobbing questions in their direction. To be fed Paul

:46:24. > :46:26.Nuttall he did stop and take quite a lot of questions in a big puddle

:46:27. > :46:35.just over there by the desks for a couple of minutes, before we got

:46:36. > :46:38.into the rolling maul situation of following him all the way out of the

:46:39. > :46:40.car park. We didn't have a vast amount to say. He took half a dozen

:46:41. > :46:43.or so questions. Lots of questions about Hillsborough, about the stuff

:46:44. > :46:48.on his CV, about the sense from some that he was seen as something of a

:46:49. > :46:53.figure of fun because of the cumulative effect of the various

:46:54. > :46:56.calamities that he faced in questions he faced during the

:46:57. > :47:00.campaign. He said he would come back and fight again. He re-emphasised

:47:01. > :47:05.this point that you could have been making all night, that this was

:47:06. > :47:10.number 70 21 Ukip's target list back in 2015, he tried to brush off the

:47:11. > :47:13.idea they had to win a seat like this to pick up the line of

:47:14. > :47:19.questioning you were pursuing their in terms of what Nigel Farage had

:47:20. > :47:21.said in the past. The pitch of his argument was he reckons there would

:47:22. > :47:25.be seats in the future more conducive to a Ukip victory than

:47:26. > :47:29.this one. We expected that Paul Nuttall would do a bunk from this

:47:30. > :47:33.count and try and give is all the slip and scarper. As I said, to his

:47:34. > :47:38.credit, he didn't do that. Whilst it did take quite a lot of questions,

:47:39. > :47:45.we didn't get many answers. Desire I hear you say that he is saying he's

:47:46. > :47:50.going to fight Stoke again? -- did I hear you say? No, not necessarily

:47:51. > :47:55.Stoke, but that he would run to be as an MP somewhere else. I think he

:47:56. > :48:00.has done it four or five times. Indeed. Is it worth checking the

:48:01. > :48:04.classifieds of the local newspaper tomorrow to see if there's a house

:48:05. > :48:08.up for rent in a name of Mr Nuttall, or for sale? I think he meant it

:48:09. > :48:13.rather than buying it. That could well happen. You could maybe rent

:48:14. > :48:18.that and it could a nice bolthole for you. There's beginnings of a

:48:19. > :48:23.property empire for him to build up here, he's got a parliamentary

:48:24. > :48:27.career at Westminster. Interestingly, those right at the

:48:28. > :48:31.heart alongside me in that scrum, in fact you might be able to see them

:48:32. > :48:36.over my shoulder, was Michael Crick of Channel 4 News, the original

:48:37. > :48:41.chaser of Paul Nuttall on all things his accommodation requirements here

:48:42. > :48:45.stroke. The house he was living in at the beginning of the contest,

:48:46. > :48:48.even though it was on his nomination papers, because he said he hadn't

:48:49. > :48:51.yet moved in and by the end of the contest he wasn't living in either

:48:52. > :48:55.because he said the address had been plastered all over the place and

:48:56. > :48:59.various people in Stoke were not too keen on him, had boasted stuff other

:49:00. > :49:04.than letters to his letterbox. We'll leave it there, we will get pictures

:49:05. > :49:08.of your rugby scrum and Mr Nuttall as he left as soon as we can get

:49:09. > :49:13.them. Just look at the full quote from Nigel Farage, he was speaking

:49:14. > :49:19.to the Ukip Spring conference on the 17th of February of this year. Only

:49:20. > :49:22.a few days ago. He said, all of that, I'm not sure what he was

:49:23. > :49:27.talking about, he said, all of that comes to a head next Thursday in

:49:28. > :49:31.Stoke and I don't think anybody for one moment could underplay just how

:49:32. > :49:36.important can just how fundamental that by-election is, for the futures

:49:37. > :49:48.of both the Labour Party and indeed of Ukip. It matters and it matters

:49:49. > :49:52.hugely. That's the significance. And you lost. Well, it did matter and it

:49:53. > :49:56.would have been a fantastic feat for us to win. I was there when Nigel

:49:57. > :50:01.gave a speech at the spring conference. He's a fantastic speaker

:50:02. > :50:05.and a fantastic motivator and I think everyone was moved by his

:50:06. > :50:10.speech and a lot of people went to Stoke to campaign and we wanted to

:50:11. > :50:13.win. As I said, we increased our share of the vote but not enough to

:50:14. > :50:17.win. So that's the reality that we face now. We will live to fight on

:50:18. > :50:21.another day and we will have other opportunities in the future to win

:50:22. > :50:28.by-elections and to get more people into Parliament. Let me just show

:50:29. > :50:34.you the pictures here of Paul Nuttall as he was leaving the count.

:50:35. > :50:38.The interesting thing is the media is almost as interested in Mr

:50:39. > :50:41.Nuttall, more interested in Mr Nuttall, than they were on the

:50:42. > :50:46.Labour victor. Let's here and have a look at what he was saying. He's

:50:47. > :50:53.listening to the result, I think on at the moment. He has a big smile on

:50:54. > :50:58.his face for a man who has just lost, but I guess he knows the

:50:59. > :51:04.cameras are on him there. That's Michael Crick, from another channel,

:51:05. > :51:11.trying to get a word in. We haven't got any sound there, but I would

:51:12. > :51:17.suggest you David Kurten of Ukip, that people will regard you as among

:51:18. > :51:22.the walking wounded and that the publicity, negative publicity he

:51:23. > :51:28.gains, over the house that kind of novel was, the Hillsborough... Let's

:51:29. > :51:37.just here with the sound. We have the sound. I'm only 12 weeks in,

:51:38. > :51:42.come on, give me a break. Sorry? Well, the Labour candidate got more

:51:43. > :51:48.votes than me. Do you know. But we've cut their majority in half and

:51:49. > :51:52.we've unify the party like never before and we'll go forward now and

:51:53. > :52:01.we'll look, Ukip's time will come. This will happen. It didn't... Hang

:52:02. > :52:05.on, this seat was what, number 72 on our hit list. There's a lot more

:52:06. > :52:09.that will happen, a lot more to come from us. We're not going anywhere.

:52:10. > :52:15.I'm not going anywhere, so therefore we move on and our time will come.

:52:16. > :52:20.This is the Brexit capital of Britain. Yes, but there's other

:52:21. > :52:24.issues beyond Brexit and in terms of where we are as a party on the

:52:25. > :52:29.ground and whatnot, we estimated that, we put this at number 72,

:52:30. > :52:32.look, there's going to be a lot more seats which are going to be more

:52:33. > :52:36.favourable to was in the near future and we will go on and we will have

:52:37. > :52:41.success in the future. So look, come on, it's not a problem. Is what

:52:42. > :52:46.happened on your website and Hillsborough and your CV, do you

:52:47. > :52:50.recognise that was a big factor in your loss? Well, actually, do you

:52:51. > :52:53.know, the Hillsborough issue wasn't an issue on the doorsteps in

:52:54. > :52:57.Stoke-on-Trent. Obviously the Labour Party has a machine. They got their

:52:58. > :53:02.machine out on the day. We did our best. We fell short this time but in

:53:03. > :53:06.the future it will happen for Ukip. Ukip's time will come.

:53:07. > :53:10.INAUDIBLE I'm a member of the European

:53:11. > :53:18.Parliament, I am elected. If one comes up in the future, we'll

:53:19. > :53:21.consider, OK? There will be other seats, there will be better chances.

:53:22. > :53:28.And as I say, this was only number 72 on our hit list. Well, look, I'll

:53:29. > :53:35.probably stand in the general election of 2020. OK, guys? All

:53:36. > :53:40.right. Paul Nuttall putting a brave face on it there with lots of smiles

:53:41. > :53:44.for a defeated candidate, a candidate who was dogged by

:53:45. > :53:51.controversy throughout the campaign in Stoke. A range of issues, from

:53:52. > :54:00.Hillsborough, to his accommodation, to claims on his website about Ph.D.

:54:01. > :54:04., his Ph.D., or lack of Ph.D., and so on, and in a sense Mr Natoga came

:54:05. > :54:09.the issue, rather than the issues that Ukip has meant to stand for --

:54:10. > :54:14.Mr Nuttall. It seems that has a negative impact and it also seems,

:54:15. > :54:18.as we watch him being get through the media scrum there, that is John

:54:19. > :54:25.Curtice was saying, what was regarded by the media and indeed by

:54:26. > :54:31.the parties as a two horse race, actually, because the Tories did not

:54:32. > :54:36.defect to Mr Nuttall and you'd kip, in the end was a three horse race

:54:37. > :54:40.with the Tories only a few scores of votes behind Ukip in that.

:54:41. > :54:46.Increasing their share of the vote, which governments don't normally do

:54:47. > :54:53.in by-elections. There he goes. Not sure where he is staying tonight.

:54:54. > :54:57.But probably not the house that became quite famous during the

:54:58. > :55:03.campaign. There another result we are still waiting on. It's in

:55:04. > :55:07.Copeland will stop it the result we think, as we were getting under way

:55:08. > :55:14.tonight, it did look as if Labour had held on to Stoke, whereas in

:55:15. > :55:19.Copeland we've been unable to give you any steer what that result might

:55:20. > :55:23.be, so close is it. Let's go back to Tom Bateman at the count in the

:55:24. > :55:29.sports hall in Whitehaven. To see where we are. Give us an update.

:55:30. > :55:33.Yes, we've just had an announcement from the stage that the declaration

:55:34. > :55:38.is going to be made in five minutes, so we are nearly there. Let me tell

:55:39. > :55:41.you how tricky it's been to get those sort of normal sources of

:55:42. > :55:45.intelligence that might tell you which way a vote is going to go,

:55:46. > :55:50.because even the here where the votes are normally in, stacking up

:55:51. > :55:54.and you can watch how many votes each candidate is getting, they've

:55:55. > :55:58.all been kept empty here tonight and they're all going to be putting in

:55:59. > :56:03.one go, so they are going to resist giving us any clue whatsoever as to

:56:04. > :56:08.who has won this. In terms of the Conservatives and Labour camps here

:56:09. > :56:12.tonight, we are still keeping their cards close to their chests. Kat

:56:13. > :56:16.Smith, Labour MP seemed pretty happy a few moments ago, but that may be

:56:17. > :56:21.more to do with the result in Stoke is the news filtered through that.

:56:22. > :56:27.Tom, this is interesting, because normally when we do these programmes

:56:28. > :56:32.and we go to the actual result, before the figures are announced we

:56:33. > :56:36.have a pretty good idea he was probably won, as we did with Stoke

:56:37. > :56:40.there, pretty clear, we didn't know by how much but it was pretty clear

:56:41. > :56:44.Labour had held onto it by the time it came. You are telling me that as

:56:45. > :56:50.we go to this announcement, only five minutes we still don't really

:56:51. > :56:54.have a steer as to who has won? I think it's going to be pretty close

:56:55. > :56:58.and I think that's the reason why. As you say, normally when you show

:56:59. > :57:01.up at these by-election counts you get a pretty clear sense quite

:57:02. > :57:04.quickly really from the rather -- from the counts how things are

:57:05. > :57:08.adding up. But it's been too hard for them to tell. I think the sense

:57:09. > :57:11.here is they didn't want to get it wrong and put out a message

:57:12. > :57:16.potentially that might make them look a bit silly afterwards. And as

:57:17. > :57:20.I say, we can't even see how the ballot papers have stacked up so far

:57:21. > :57:25.in those trays. It's been a bit tricky. All of that tells is it will

:57:26. > :57:32.be pretty close. If it's not, well, we have to find out why. Is looking

:57:33. > :57:37.like it will be. It makes it worthwhile to stay up, what is the

:57:38. > :57:45.time now? This is what we live for here. It's 2:45pm, you'll love it,

:57:46. > :57:51.it's 2:45am. We've been saying all along it's very close but not so

:57:52. > :57:52.close in the end that any part of Labour or Conservative demanded a

:57:53. > :58:02.recount. That's right. Certainly we are

:58:03. > :58:05.getting this declaration that looks a bit earlier than people had

:58:06. > :58:14.thought. We were being told as late as 4am, but that clearly is not the

:58:15. > :58:18.case. We saw a short time ago the person who is going to read the

:58:19. > :58:23.declaration, the high Sheriff of Cumbria, the reverend Richard Lee,

:58:24. > :58:28.pacing around, getting his words ready, so we await that. The sense

:58:29. > :58:34.we get from both the parties here is what they close fought campaign it's

:58:35. > :58:38.been. Labour a few minutes ago talking to a colleague about the way

:58:39. > :58:42.in which they felt some of the campaigning here has been pretty

:58:43. > :58:48.unfair. It was a Ben Eccles bite from the outset, because Labour were

:58:49. > :58:54.clear that that majority felt it was crumbling. -- a bare knuckle fight.

:58:55. > :58:59.They have been fighting hard. We can see the people gathering behind you,

:59:00. > :59:03.so it looks like we are not far away, but in my experience it always

:59:04. > :59:07.ends up being more than a couple of minutes. There is a wide angle shot

:59:08. > :59:13.of that, as people gather. We will bring you the result as soon as we

:59:14. > :59:17.get it. Mr Corbyn has already had good news tonight, holding on to

:59:18. > :59:23.Stoke. You can have all kinds of caveats but, in the end, if you win,

:59:24. > :59:28.you win. If he was to hold onto Copeland tonight, even with a result

:59:29. > :59:32.that again, when John Curtice does the arithmetic, would suggest they

:59:33. > :59:39.held on but not such a great result, to hold onto both these by-elections

:59:40. > :59:43.would be a very satisfying result, whatever the caveats, for Jeremy

:59:44. > :59:49.Corbyn. But, if Labour has lost Copeland, that will probably, almost

:59:50. > :59:55.certainly overshadow Labour's victory in Stoke, because for a

:59:56. > :00:02.sitting government, a Conservative government to win a seat off the

:00:03. > :00:09.opposition in a by-election happens very rarely in British politics.

:00:10. > :00:16.Indeed, you have to go back way back to 1960 to find a clear change, in

:00:17. > :00:23.which Labour lost a seat just after Harold Macmillan's landslide in 59.

:00:24. > :00:27.The Labour majority then was only 47. This is a more substantial

:00:28. > :00:31.majority. If Labour was to lose, this would be a major upset in the

:00:32. > :00:38.history of British by-elections and, when we get it, John Curtice will

:00:39. > :00:48.put all in context. Barry Gardiner, it's a thrilling end. A white

:00:49. > :00:52.knuckle ride! Before we know the result, and as you say it's unusual

:00:53. > :01:02.that we don't at this stage, I would simply say that in Gillian Troughton

:01:03. > :01:08.we had an excellent candidate, and if she has managed to win, a great

:01:09. > :01:11.deal of the credit goes to her. She made the NHS a big issue, both

:01:12. > :01:16.generally and of a particular local issue, the maternity hospital. I

:01:17. > :01:22.think she had been a doctor. And an ambulance driver. Currently a blue

:01:23. > :01:28.light ambulance volunteer, so she knows the distance between west

:01:29. > :01:31.Cumbria and Carlisle. We are very close now, because the candidates

:01:32. > :01:38.are on the stage with their campaign rosettes on. That means we are now

:01:39. > :01:41.getting very close to it. There they are, being choreographed into the

:01:42. > :01:45.correct order, but I'm not quite sure what that is. Someone has an

:01:46. > :01:53.idea of what the correct order should be. You can see the Lib Dems

:01:54. > :02:02.there, just on the outside left, the complete outside left. Oh, I'm being

:02:03. > :02:08.told one of the great secrets of British politics that its

:02:09. > :02:13.alphabetical order. How original! That at least makes it fair. So

:02:14. > :02:19.there they are in alphabetical order. One, two, three, four, five,

:02:20. > :02:24.six, seven candidates, not a huge number for a by-election, which

:02:25. > :02:30.usually attracts lots of candidates, particularly from the minor parties.

:02:31. > :02:37.Copeland, as I was saying earlier, it is Labour's biggest held seat

:02:38. > :02:44.geographically, a constituency that is well spread out, stretching from

:02:45. > :02:48.the coast into the Lake District, no huge town centres. Whitehaven, where

:02:49. > :02:56.the count is taking place, is the biggest. We can now hear the result.

:02:57. > :03:00.I, Richard Lee, being the returning officer at the election of a Member

:03:01. > :03:09.of Parliament for the Copeland constituency on Thursday the 23rd of

:03:10. > :03:13.February 2017, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded

:03:14. > :03:28.for each candidate had said election is as follows. Guest, Michael

:03:29. > :03:35.Patrick Anthony, independent, 811. Hanson, Rebecca Charlotte, Liberal

:03:36. > :03:46.Democrats, 2252. CHEERING

:03:47. > :03:50.Harrison, Trudy Lynn, the Conservative Party candidate, 13700

:03:51. > :04:03.and 48. CHEERING

:04:04. > :04:21.Ivinson, Roy Alan, independent, 116. Lenox, Jack Frederick, Green Party,

:04:22. > :04:41.515. Mills, Fiona Rachel, UK Independence Party, 2025. Gillian

:04:42. > :04:46.Roos, Labour Party, 11,000 601. -- Gillian Troughton. A number of

:04:47. > :04:51.ballot papers rejected was as follows, want of an official mark,

:04:52. > :04:56.zero. Voting for more than one candidate, 15. Writing or mark by

:04:57. > :05:09.which the voter could be identified, 2. Being unmarked or wholly void for

:05:10. > :05:18.uncertainty, 23. The total being 40. The electorate, 60,602, ballot

:05:19. > :05:23.papers issued, 31,108, ten out, 51.33%... This is a remarkable

:05:24. > :05:27.result which has just come in. The Conservatives have taken the

:05:28. > :05:29.constituency of Copeland from Labour, a constituency it has held

:05:30. > :05:38.since time immemorial. They've not just taken it up by a pretty healthy

:05:39. > :05:43.majority of 2147. Indeed, the Tory majority on a much lower turnout is

:05:44. > :05:50.not that much smaller than Labour's majority was in the general election

:05:51. > :05:56.of 2564. This is historically a major event in by-election history

:05:57. > :06:00.in Britain, and we are going to tell you more in a minute, but let's hear

:06:01. > :06:06.from the weather. She is addressing the counting. -- gear from the

:06:07. > :06:12.window. Let's hear from Trudy Harrison, the new MP for Copeland.

:06:13. > :06:16.The efficient way in which they have policed the event. What has happened

:06:17. > :06:22.here tonight is a truly historic event. You'd have to go back more

:06:23. > :06:27.than a century to find an example of a governing party taking a seat from

:06:28. > :06:35.the opposition party in an election like this. We have had Labour here

:06:36. > :06:40.for more than 80 years. But it's been very clear, talking to people

:06:41. > :06:47.throughout this campaign, that Jeremy Corbyn doesn't represent

:06:48. > :06:52.them. They want a party which is on the side of ordinary working people,

:06:53. > :06:56.which will respect the way we voted in the referendum, and which will

:06:57. > :07:05.build a country that represents everyone. That's why they voted for

:07:06. > :07:11.me tonight. I want to thank everyone who has backed me to be their next

:07:12. > :07:15.representative in Parliament. People in communities right across this

:07:16. > :07:20.constituency have put their faith in me, a special sort of

:07:21. > :07:26.responsibility. I know that many of them might never have voted

:07:27. > :07:34.Conservative before, but whichever way you voted, I will work hard to

:07:35. > :07:39.be a strong voice for you and to stand up for this very special part

:07:40. > :07:46.of the world. I care deeply about this community. It's the area I've

:07:47. > :07:56.lived all my life. It's where my family live and work. And it's where

:07:57. > :08:00.my husband and I are bringing up my four beautiful daughters. I want the

:08:01. > :08:10.best for my community, and I know that we deserve more, to be able to

:08:11. > :08:14.realise our full potential. Local people have backed me to deliver my

:08:15. > :08:19.6-point plan, for Copeland, and to support the Prime Minister's plan to

:08:20. > :08:26.make a success of Brexit, and I will not let them down. Whether it's on

:08:27. > :08:31.local services, the nuclear industry, or getting more jobs

:08:32. > :08:35.locally, our area need someone who can make our voice heard and work

:08:36. > :08:45.with the government to get things done. My promise tonight to you is

:08:46. > :08:56.to be that person. Finally, I wanted to thank my husband, my girls and my

:08:57. > :08:59.parents for all their help and support during this campaign, and to

:09:00. > :09:03.all the volunteers from across the country who have come to help us

:09:04. > :09:10.make history here tonight. It is an enormous honour to be elected here

:09:11. > :09:17.as the representative for the area, but I live in and call home. Thank

:09:18. > :09:28.you very much. APPLAUSE

:09:29. > :09:31.Trudy Harrison, the new Conservative MP for Copeland. That in itself is a

:09:32. > :09:40.historic phrase. Nobody has been able to say Conservative MP for

:09:41. > :09:48.Copeland in living memory. She won with a Conservative vote of over 44%

:09:49. > :09:58.of the vote, a rise of 8.5% on the general election, and Labour's share

:09:59. > :10:06.of the vote down 5%. There are the figures of the votes. A comfortable

:10:07. > :10:12.majority of 2247. That was over Gillian Troughton, the Labour

:10:13. > :10:15.candidate. We said all night it was close, but actually that's not all

:10:16. > :10:20.that close, given the turnout of 51%. In the end, the Conservatives

:10:21. > :10:26.have won this seat reasonably comfortably. I think the people who

:10:27. > :10:31.run the Copeland by-election did a great job in keeping what was going

:10:32. > :10:34.on from everybody else, not just the media but the candidates and

:10:35. > :10:41.parties, too. Here is the crucial thing, the share of the vote. The

:10:42. > :10:47.Conservatives' share is up, 8.5. Labour are down, 5% below. As you

:10:48. > :10:54.can see, this was a two horse race. Everybody else, far behind. The

:10:55. > :11:00.Liberal Democrats on 7%, up almost 4% on the general election. The Ukip

:11:01. > :11:09.vote down, collapsing 9%. Although I don't know for sure, it may be that

:11:10. > :11:13.some of that 7% of the vote, there we go, there is the change, some of

:11:14. > :11:20.that could well have gone to the Conservatives. It's a 6.7% swing

:11:21. > :11:25.from Labour to Conservatives. I'm going to say that again, because it

:11:26. > :11:31.is quite a remarkable result in a by-election for an opposition party

:11:32. > :11:38.to have lost two exiting Conservative government -- to a

:11:39. > :11:41.sitting Conservative government. A 6.7% swing to the Conservatives,

:11:42. > :11:47.giving them a historic victory in the Copeland by-election. I will

:11:48. > :11:50.hear from Matthew Hancock, representing the victory party. It's

:11:51. > :11:57.a stunning result. It has surpassed all expectations. Obviously, Trudy

:11:58. > :12:01.was a great candidate, as we saw, but I think people have sometimes

:12:02. > :12:06.missed the fact that, because we have looked at the details here, but

:12:07. > :12:09.ultimately you only have one party in British politics at the moment

:12:10. > :12:14.which has a strong message on the economy, on safety, on delivering

:12:15. > :12:19.Brexit and strong leadership, and that has played out. It is the sort

:12:20. > :12:23.of swing you normally get away from a governing party, and we've got it

:12:24. > :12:29.towards a governing party, so it is a very strong result for the

:12:30. > :12:35.Conservatives, and you can see both Ukip and Labour going backwards.

:12:36. > :12:38.Exposed to John Curtice. A historic is a word that journalists like to

:12:39. > :12:44.overuse. I would suggest tonight that it is the right adjective.

:12:45. > :12:49.Absolutely correct. This is the best by-election performance by a

:12:50. > :12:52.government party in terms of the increase their share of the vote as

:12:53. > :12:59.compared to the last general election since the whole -- whole

:13:00. > :13:03.North by-election of January 1966 -- Hull North. Let's fill every body

:13:04. > :13:07.else in. It was a by-election that was won handsomely by Harold Wilson

:13:08. > :13:12.and on the back of that he decided to go to the country and to hold a

:13:13. > :13:15.general election, because he only had a very small majority and he

:13:16. > :13:22.reckoned he could get a big one. Theresa May tomorrow morning may be

:13:23. > :13:25.regretting having ruled out the prospect of an early election, so I

:13:26. > :13:27.think first one has to say this is a remarkably good result for the

:13:28. > :13:30.Conservatives. I think you are quite right to point out one of the

:13:31. > :13:34.foundations is what frankly was a collapse in the Ukip vote and here I

:13:35. > :13:38.think is a warning to Ukip that where they are not capable of

:13:39. > :13:41.looking as though they are credible, their vote potentially is

:13:42. > :13:45.vulnerable. Leave voters may well be defecting to the Conservatives. But

:13:46. > :13:50.of course what is also intriguing about this is the swing you point

:13:51. > :13:53.out, that 6% swing to the Conservatives, is actually bigger

:13:54. > :13:57.than you are currently seeing in a national polls. Labour there for

:13:58. > :14:00.might want to say the local circumstances in Copeland were

:14:01. > :14:04.particularly difficult but the reason why the local circumstances

:14:05. > :14:07.in Copeland were particularly difficulties because of Jeremy

:14:08. > :14:11.Corbyn's reluctance about the nuclear industry, which in some

:14:12. > :14:16.voters' minds is probably also tied to the fact he's also anti-nuclear

:14:17. > :14:20.weapons. So although the difficulty might be local, I suspect for the

:14:21. > :14:24.critics of Mr Corbyn inside the Labour Party, they will be saying,

:14:25. > :14:28.look, this is exactly the problem with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership,

:14:29. > :14:34.that is taking stances on issues that are not popular amongst the

:14:35. > :14:36.wider public and of course earlier you have that embarrassing interview

:14:37. > :14:41.with Jack drove me, who was on a table to confirm that Mr Corbyn was

:14:42. > :14:44.necessarily in favour of Nato and there perhaps a message in the

:14:45. > :14:51.counterpoint between that interview earlier this evening and result from

:14:52. > :14:55.Copeland -- Jack drew me. Thanks, we will get more thoughts and come back

:14:56. > :15:02.to you. Harry Gardner, it's one of the worst results in a by-election

:15:03. > :15:07.for Labour in living memory. Yes, absolutely. Well, I think John has

:15:08. > :15:12.analysed it very well. I think he's analysed it both in terms of the

:15:13. > :15:17.shift in the Brexit vote that's gone from Ukip to the Conservatives and

:15:18. > :15:21.also in the importance to that particular constituency of the

:15:22. > :15:27.nuclear industry. Sellafield was absolutely, it has been at the heart

:15:28. > :15:32.of that constituency. Big job creation. And whilst in fact the

:15:33. > :15:36.statement that the Labour Party had put out, certainly in recent weeks

:15:37. > :15:42.and over the issue of Moorside were actually more pro-nuclear and more

:15:43. > :15:46.about the government investing in Moorside than the Conservatives'

:15:47. > :15:51.own, nonetheless, that history that said that Jeremy Corbyn was against

:15:52. > :15:57.nuclear, albeit taken out of context after the Fukushima results in

:15:58. > :16:02.Tokyo. Has he always been against it? He's never been in favour.

:16:03. > :16:07.That's not entirely true. He's never been in favour of nuclear. He's

:16:08. > :16:10.recognised that nuclear is an important part of our energy mix

:16:11. > :16:14.going forward and he's said that on a number of occasions. But

:16:15. > :16:20.nonetheless, that was a very important factor in the by-election.

:16:21. > :16:26.I accept that. I think Mark is also right to say that Trudy Harrison was

:16:27. > :16:28.a very good candidate. Watching both Labour and Conservative candidates,

:16:29. > :16:33.I'm sure the other candidates were pretty good too. It was a two horse

:16:34. > :16:39.race. Undoubtedly! We did pretty well. Two horse race! From a small

:16:40. > :16:47.base, you are moving in the right direction. Here's the issue. Jeremy

:16:48. > :16:51.Corbyn went on the NHS at Prime Minister's Questions this week. Not

:16:52. > :16:57.for the first time, the NHS is clearly in some trouble this winter,

:16:58. > :17:01.as a generalised problem. And Mr Corbyn has seen that as an issue

:17:02. > :17:05.that is strong for Labour to go for the government. In addition to that,

:17:06. > :17:10.there was this local issue of the maternity hospital and if it closes

:17:11. > :17:15.its a 40 mile journey to Carlisle to get to the maternity hospital there.

:17:16. > :17:23.And yet even given all that, you couldn't hold this feed. We cannot

:17:24. > :17:27.be a party of single issue and of course the National Health Service,

:17:28. > :17:32.we founded it, we created it, we recreated it in 1997 by all the

:17:33. > :17:36.investment we put into it, but nonetheless, it cannot be the sole

:17:37. > :17:40.issue for our party and that's something that we in the Labour

:17:41. > :17:46.Party must be aware of and we must reflect the wider concerns of the

:17:47. > :17:50.public, not just about the NHS. Barry Gardiner, thank you, we will

:17:51. > :17:59.show you the swing. The swing from Labour to Conservatives, 6.7. It say

:18:00. > :18:03.hi swing, not in by-elections in general, but a high swing to go from

:18:04. > :18:07.the official opposition to the governing party. That is the

:18:08. > :18:13.remarkable part of this swing. 6.7. If that was to be carried out

:18:14. > :18:17.through the country, the Conservatives would have a majority

:18:18. > :18:21.of over 120, though of course it's always a mistake to take one

:18:22. > :18:25.constituency and say how the country will vote. But even so, that's an

:18:26. > :18:31.encouraging result there, Matt Hancock. I can't thing you can put

:18:32. > :18:34.this down just a local issues. Of course there were local issues and

:18:35. > :18:38.we had a very good candidate but the fact we went up as a share of the

:18:39. > :18:43.vote in both of the by-elections tonight, having not done that in

:18:44. > :18:47.government since 1982. Governments don't normally go up. Exactly, so of

:18:48. > :18:53.course there are local issues but you can't just put this down to the

:18:54. > :18:57.local questions you are asking. It's also about the fact that we have a

:18:58. > :19:01.government that is delivering. OK, Jeremy Corbyn has issued a statement

:19:02. > :19:07.covering both by-elections. Chris Mason in Stoke has it. Was the

:19:08. > :19:10.Leader of the Opposition saying? A couple of paragraphs have been put

:19:11. > :19:16.out by the Labour press office in Jeremy Corbyn's name. He's saying,

:19:17. > :19:19.Labour's victory in Stoke is a decisive rear rejection of Ukip's

:19:20. > :19:23.politics but our message was not enough to win through in Copeland.

:19:24. > :19:27.In both campaigns, Labour listened to thousands of voters on the

:19:28. > :19:30.doorstep. Both constituencies, like so many, have been let down by the

:19:31. > :19:34.political establishment. To win power, rebuilt and transform

:19:35. > :19:38.Britain, Labour will go further to reconnect with voters and break with

:19:39. > :19:43.the failed political consensus. Now I think what's interesting is that

:19:44. > :19:47.the whispers were earlier this evening, if Labour were to hold the

:19:48. > :19:50.seat here in Stoke, that Jeremy Corbyn would leap on a train

:19:51. > :19:54.tomorrow lunchtime and would do some sort of victory parade through the

:19:55. > :19:59.city centre and of course, if he goes ahead and does that, you can

:20:00. > :20:04.guarantee what every single question will be thrown at him. It won't be a

:20:05. > :20:07.single thing about Stoke, it will be about what has happened in Copeland.

:20:08. > :20:13.It will be interesting to see if he actually does get on that train,

:20:14. > :20:16.because despite the perfectly expected jubilation from Gareth

:20:17. > :20:20.Snell, the winning Labour candidate here in Stoke, all of the questions

:20:21. > :20:24.are pointed, a good deal further to the north-west in Copeland for

:20:25. > :20:30.Labour. And queue for that and it's clear that the bigger, the two big

:20:31. > :20:33.stories tonight, the bigger of the two was clearly Labour's defeat in

:20:34. > :20:39.Copeland, because of the historic nature of it. And in a way, am I too

:20:40. > :20:45.serious to think that the Tories and Lib Dems got the best of both worlds

:20:46. > :20:51.tonight? Labour held onto one seat, good for Mr Corbyn, but they lost

:20:52. > :20:57.another seat, bad for Mr Corbyn, but not losing two means that Mr Corbyn

:20:58. > :21:01.still stays leader of the Labour Party. Seems like good news to me.

:21:02. > :21:07.Well, you showed earlier the graph, didn't you, of Labour's fortunes,

:21:08. > :21:15.which are diving. A lot of that is to do with their leader. On the taxi

:21:16. > :21:23.here tonight, I always have a chat with the drivers. He said, oh, his

:21:24. > :21:29.mother or mother-in-law had been the Labour mayor of Tower Hamlets, so

:21:30. > :21:32.even they are saying you can't vote Labour was Jeremy Corbyn. It's bad

:21:33. > :21:39.news for Labour. I thought it was only Germans that chatted to taxi

:21:40. > :21:44.drivers. IChat and a disastrous night for Ukip. Lets come onto that.

:21:45. > :21:49.Just as you think it couldn't get worse, in a way just got worse. Vote

:21:50. > :21:53.collapsed will stop in Copeland you see clearly what happened, some

:21:54. > :21:56.people voted for Ukip in the general election, switched the vote to vote

:21:57. > :22:04.Conservative, in order to out seat Labour because Labour was absolutely

:22:05. > :22:10.too far for them, they didn't want a Labour MP. The interesting thing is

:22:11. > :22:16.Ukip voters did in Copeland, we think, move to the Tories to defeat

:22:17. > :22:23.Labour, which is precisely what Conservative voters did not do in

:22:24. > :22:27.Stoke, which was moved to Ukip to defeat Labour. So it's a double bad

:22:28. > :22:31.result for you. Copeland was much more clearly two horse race and

:22:32. > :22:37.Stoke was more of a three horse race. If you saw the 2015 result, it

:22:38. > :22:42.was Ukip and the Conservatives neck and neck in second place. Ukip told

:22:43. > :22:45.as it was a two horse race in the campaign, that the Tories were not

:22:46. > :22:50.in it, that the only people to beat Labour was Ukip. Well, absolutely. I

:22:51. > :22:55.think in Stoke that was the case, but it ended up as the result we

:22:56. > :22:59.had. But a different thing happened in Copeland. It was much clearer in

:23:00. > :23:04.Copeland that if you wanted to have a change from Labour venue had to

:23:05. > :23:16.vote Conservative, because they were much closer in the vote. On This

:23:17. > :23:20.Week, which preceded the by-election special, Michael Portillo said what

:23:21. > :23:26.has just happened is the best result for the Tories, that Labour won

:23:27. > :23:31.Stoke, which keeps Mr Corbyn secure, but they've pulled off, the Tories

:23:32. > :23:37.have pulled off a spectacular victory in Copeland, which is great

:23:38. > :23:41.for Tory morale, and he's pointed out to me, a seat in the North of

:23:42. > :23:52.England where the Tories have been in retreat for one and baby two

:23:53. > :24:02.generations now. So is a win-win. Well, Michael was saying the same

:24:03. > :24:10.thing to me earlier. He said, if we won two CTB very pleased. My point

:24:11. > :24:13.is this. -- if we want two seats, he'd be very pleased. One can try

:24:14. > :24:18.and personalise this around the figure of the leader. Jeremy's

:24:19. > :24:21.position as leader is secure, after winning two times within 18 months

:24:22. > :24:26.we're not going to go into a leadership election. We never were,

:24:27. > :24:30.no matter what happened tonight. Even if you'd lost both? Nobody has

:24:31. > :24:34.the appetite for that in the Parliamentary Labour Party. What is

:24:35. > :24:39.clear to me and that was the figures you showed earlier, there is a

:24:40. > :24:43.long-term trend of declining in those seats and what we have to do

:24:44. > :24:47.as a party is not only respond to that, we have to respond to the

:24:48. > :24:51.changing face of British politics, which has been absolutely

:24:52. > :24:55.transformed by the 52% who voted to leave the European Union and the 48%

:24:56. > :24:59.that voted to stay, and we have to grapple with that central issue. We

:25:00. > :25:04.are doing that as a party. I think Kier Starmer is doing that

:25:05. > :25:07.particularly well, trying to articulate a pathway that will lead

:25:08. > :25:09.us through that. I fear that the government is not going to lead was

:25:10. > :25:14.successfully through that, and that's why the Labour Party needs to

:25:15. > :25:17.now articulate a message that perhaps will not resonate on the

:25:18. > :25:23.doorsteps at the moment. It's not the clarity of we are supporting the

:25:24. > :25:27.48%, or, we are supporting the 52%. It's trying to bring these things

:25:28. > :25:32.together. If we can do that successfully, even if we don't get

:25:33. > :25:36.the success now, in two, three years' time, when people see what's

:25:37. > :25:40.happening with those negotiations, maybe people will think the Labour

:25:41. > :25:45.Party does represent us. But in a sense two thoughts come to mind. One

:25:46. > :25:48.is that you almost need the Brexit negotiations to go wrong to make

:25:49. > :25:52.your point and I don't think it's ever good for a political party to

:25:53. > :25:57.hope to prosper on the back of things going badly for our country.

:25:58. > :26:01.Absolutely, no. I perfectly understand the strategy you are

:26:02. > :26:04.outlining, it seems to me a lot of common sense, but it seems to me

:26:05. > :26:10.that's a longer term strategy get back than 2020, that you really are

:26:11. > :26:15.looking to the next decade for that to be a fruit. I think what we've

:26:16. > :26:20.got to do is articulate what is right for the country. We have to

:26:21. > :26:24.now want the negotiations with our European colleagues to be

:26:25. > :26:29.successful. We must continue to warm, we must continue to point out

:26:30. > :26:33.the pitfalls, but actually, we've got to try and ensure that we bring

:26:34. > :26:38.the government to the right place. That's the job of the opposition.

:26:39. > :26:42.Barry Gardiner, if the oppositions are -- if the negotiations are

:26:43. > :26:48.successful and that's a big if, the more the chances of a no deal at all

:26:49. > :26:52.are rising, still minority, but rising a bit, very tricky. But if

:26:53. > :26:57.they are successful than surely Mrs May is off to the races. She'll be

:26:58. > :27:03.the Prime Minister that delivered a successful deal on Brexit. What is

:27:04. > :27:07.Labour's role in that? Our role will be in steering her to do that and

:27:08. > :27:12.that will be a success for the country. But that won't get you

:27:13. > :27:17.elected. Our job as Her Majesty's official and loyal opposition is

:27:18. > :27:22.always to criticise the government, but to do so in the best interests

:27:23. > :27:27.of the country. I understand. That doesn't always mean that we will get

:27:28. > :27:34.the kudos for it but it should be what our intent is. It sounds to me

:27:35. > :27:40.from what you say that 2020 is going to be difficult for you to win, and

:27:41. > :27:45.in your heart of hearts you think its a step too far, it's going to

:27:46. > :27:50.take longer than that. Not at all. I believe that we must be looking now

:27:51. > :27:56.towards 2020 and to making sure that we can win in 2020, but we will only

:27:57. > :28:02.do so if we address that long-term decline, the divide between

:28:03. > :28:06.manufacturing sectors and the financial and other service sectors

:28:07. > :28:10.in our country, if we actually show that we have a plan to bring the

:28:11. > :28:14.country back together. Festival, I've listened to politicians telling

:28:15. > :28:17.me they are going to reverse the decline in manufacturing since I was

:28:18. > :28:28.in short trousers and every I look at a graphic on going down on that.

:28:29. > :28:31.But it would seem there has to come a time and the chart we showed

:28:32. > :28:36.earlier, which got Labour down to 27, if that doesn't start to turn

:28:37. > :28:41.up, if you and I are sitting in his studio in a year's time or 18

:28:42. > :28:47.months' time, it's a problem. I wanted to turn. I do. I'll do

:28:48. > :28:53.anything I can to make sure it does, Andrew. I can see in our monitor

:28:54. > :28:57.that we have the new member of Parliament for Copeland, Trudy

:28:58. > :29:02.Harrison. She joins us now from the count. Trudy Harrison, welcome to

:29:03. > :29:06.our by-election special. It is as we've been saying quite a historic

:29:07. > :29:10.victory, given this was a Labour seat, but a Conservative government

:29:11. > :29:19.has won it. Why do you think you want? -- won? What I represent is

:29:20. > :29:24.what the people of this area need and I know that because I've lived

:29:25. > :29:28.here all my life. And when did you realise this historic upset might

:29:29. > :29:33.happen? Did you always think you are going to win, or to begin with did

:29:34. > :29:38.it seem it's an area of very high mountains, but was this a very high

:29:39. > :29:42.mountain you had to climb? It was a high mountain and it was really over

:29:43. > :29:46.the last three weeks, speaking with people on the doorstep, coming to

:29:47. > :29:52.realise that what the area needs isn't a single campaign, it's

:29:53. > :29:56.actually has cars a holistic plan, a stronger economy, improved

:29:57. > :30:01.infrastructure and better services. What indication is it that you are

:30:02. > :30:04.going to get any of that? Well, I'm looking forward to heading down to

:30:05. > :30:07.Westminster on Monday to meet with the ministers who can help deliver

:30:08. > :30:12.on that plan. All right, tell is exactly what it is you are going to

:30:13. > :30:18.be asking of them, so we can measure this. Certainly. I'm hoping that we

:30:19. > :30:27.can deliver on Moorside, that is crucial in our area. The nuclear

:30:28. > :30:30.industry, that's right, Moorside will be actually Europe's biggest

:30:31. > :30:34.new build and it will be next to Sellafield, which was the world's

:30:35. > :30:39.first nuclear reactor, which so many people in our area rely upon. OK, so

:30:40. > :30:46.you want that, the new nuclear station to proceed. You going to say

:30:47. > :30:50.that hospital? I very much hope so. I'll be working very hard on that.

:30:51. > :30:53.I've already been speaking with Philip Dunn, who has visited the

:30:54. > :30:56.hospital, and what we've agreed is that we will be pushing forward a

:30:57. > :31:01.government backed professional review. The situation is about

:31:02. > :31:07.recruitment hearing West Cumbria and it's a problem in many sectors.

:31:08. > :31:11.Health, education and indeed, in the nuclear sector. So what we need to

:31:12. > :31:15.do is make sure we can retain and recruit enough highly skilled

:31:16. > :31:19.workers into our area. All right, it's been a long campaign and there

:31:20. > :31:23.will be time in the months ahead to ask you more questions but I think

:31:24. > :31:31.for now we will let you go and celebrate your victory. Thank you

:31:32. > :31:35.very much, Andrew. Trudy Harrison, the Conservative victor in the

:31:36. > :31:39.Copeland by-election. Let's have a final quick swing round the table

:31:40. > :31:46.for final thoughts. We'll start with the Lib Dems. Good news for us,

:31:47. > :31:52.we've gone up, despite Thai campaigns between other parties,

:31:53. > :31:57.with wisdom that, it's excellent, we had really good candidates. Lots of

:31:58. > :32:04.invigorated campaigns. I think personally it was a really bad night

:32:05. > :32:07.for Ukip, not making progress in Stoke and losing loads of votes

:32:08. > :32:14.there, a bad night for Labour and not so good for the Tories either.

:32:15. > :32:20.Not so good. Having won Copeland? Yes. Really? Yes, because they'd

:32:21. > :32:26.really like... And on this growth rate you'd end up with 60 MPs in the

:32:27. > :32:33.year 2074. That's all right, you watch this space. Tonight, we had a

:32:34. > :32:40.40% swing from the Tories in a by-election in Kettering. That will

:32:41. > :32:44.do me. Not a good night for Ukip. Two very different by-elections.

:32:45. > :32:50.Actually is not as bad for Ukip as people are making out. In Stoke we

:32:51. > :32:53.increased our share of the vote. 2%. 2% in the safe Labour seat, not

:32:54. > :32:59.enough to win. We need to learn those lessons to go forward. In

:33:00. > :33:01.Copeland Ukip voters lent the Conservatives their vote because

:33:02. > :33:08.they didn't want Labour. Labour were too awful to contemplate, continue

:33:09. > :33:15.to being their MP. All right. The story of the decline from Labour.

:33:16. > :33:19.Barry Gardiner? A bad night for others losing Copeland, a real blow,

:33:20. > :33:25.very sad about that. Many lessons that we have to learn, but delighted

:33:26. > :33:29.that we managed to retain the seat in Stoke and congratulations to

:33:30. > :33:35.Gareth Snell for doing that. Commiserations and real respect for

:33:36. > :33:39.Gillian Troughton. The candidates in Copeland. An excellent candidate in

:33:40. > :33:44.Copeland. A cracking night for us but we have seen we have a great new

:33:45. > :33:50.MP for Copeland. She's already been me about broadband, which is the

:33:51. > :33:55.fourth point of her 6-point plan. It's terrible up there. Is

:33:56. > :34:00.improving. It's terrible. We have more to do. The key is this, she

:34:01. > :34:07.said it. We have a holistic plan for the country. A holistic plan. It's

:34:08. > :34:11.3:20am, the last thing I need to hear our holistic plans! It's true!

:34:12. > :34:17.It's a drivel word I will not listen to what 3:20am. I'd rather go and

:34:18. > :34:24.listen to John Curtice for the final word. Well, I think this late in the

:34:25. > :34:27.morning we just have to contemplate how curious and paradoxical the game

:34:28. > :34:32.of politics can be. Never more than -- little more than seven months ago

:34:33. > :34:35.the Conservative Party lost a referendum, where the leader

:34:36. > :34:40.campaigned very strongly for a Remain vote and ended up with the

:34:41. > :34:46.country voting to leave. We are left, seven months on, with an

:34:47. > :34:49.opposition that is now losing votes in by-election after by-election.

:34:50. > :34:53.It's happened in Witney, in Richmond, in Sleaford, in Stoke and

:34:54. > :34:58.in Copeland, all very different parts of England, but the message to

:34:59. > :35:05.Labour is the same. And meanwhile, Ukip are now facing the possibility

:35:06. > :35:08.that the rewards of the fact the majority of the country voted to

:35:09. > :35:14.leave may go to the Conservative Party, than to them. Maybe, maybe

:35:15. > :35:18.one or two Conservative MPs tomorrow morning may want to write a little

:35:19. > :35:19.private thank you note to David Cameron and thank him for having

:35:20. > :35:30.lost the referendum on June 23. Thank you to my panel in the studio

:35:31. > :35:34.for sticking with me. It could have been later. At one point, we thought

:35:35. > :35:38.it might have been passed 4am. The Matt Hancock, Barry Gardiner, thank

:35:39. > :35:42.you for sticking with me. I'm off for a couple of hours' sleep

:35:43. > :35:45.and I'm back in this very chair tomorrow at noon

:35:46. > :35:52.with the Daily Politics. We will try and put all of this and

:35:53. > :35:53.more into perspective. Thank you for being with us on this BBC One

:35:54. > :35:55.by-election special. The thing that's so clear

:35:56. > :35:57.is that it's 100% honest. We're right in the middle

:35:58. > :36:02.of the action. The remarkable story

:36:03. > :36:05.of British photography. The only cameras that were there

:36:06. > :36:10.that day How pioneering artists

:36:11. > :36:14.and technology